>> it is almost 11:00 a.m. in singapore and shanghai. here are the top stories. asian stocks troubling for traction after wall street tech rally as fed officials call for phone or -- for further influence of cooling inflation before cutting rates. and raising china growth forecast citing a better look for exports even as consumer spending slows. rbi governor says india's annual growth is moving steadily towards 8% but issues a fresh warning that the inflation fight is not over. let's check on markets. people are waiting to see what it brings and avril hong is on top of it. >> really want to find out how

the inflation fighting picture in the u.s. is faring but we are keeping a close watch on assets in china stocks are the decliners bucking the trend in the rest of the region we are also seeing continued demand for safe havens and the yield on the chinese 10 year government bond has fallen into a more than two decade low perhaps raising the risk that we see some push out from the pboc elsewhere it is a tech lead rebound tracking the performance of nvidia but as i say it is really about and elation, waiting for the pce numbers later in the week but in the meantime we did get some numbers out of australia cpi hotter than expected so selling and stock markets the bonds also coming under real pressure that with the odyssey dollar gaining ground let's look bored and dig a bit deeper and what we see down under because it was a third straight month where we saw a climb that was more than forecast so it raises concerns that rates there are just not

restrictive enough so we heard from the rba governor just last week talking about how the rate hike is not off the table and we see after the cpi print swap strangers raising the bets that there is a chance of a rate hike , august. this is coming at a time when other central bankers and michelle ballmer sounding also quite hawkish and saying there is a willingness to raise rates if needed. have a listen. >> we are still not yet at the point where it is appropriate to lower policy in the policy rate. i remain willing to raise the target range at a future meeting should progress on inflation stall or reverse. given the risks and uncertainties regarding my economic outlook i will remain cautious in my approach to consider future changes in the stance of policy. >> sticky inflation and headache

for central bankers has. >> that's right in the debate continues. let's bring in our first guest who says a trajectory of gradual rate cuts by the fed is positive or risk assets. good to have you with us. bowman says risk to the upside and not time to cut rates. >> yeah actually if you look at the risk rewards and bond is very attractive so investment would yield five point 5%. if you do see rate cuts you have returns of high single difficult -- digits in the next 12 months. you will only lose money if the fed raises rates up to four times so you can see there is margin of safety and risk reward is very attractive. >> as she says it is not time to cut rates yet and we might not see them yet when you look at the bond market traders pricing in a cut of 300 basis points by march.

they lies the disparity. >> yes so they are our guidance from said officials that are also data dependent so this week there is softer data on inflation things can change but really how we want to advise clients to construct portfolio is have positions on the short and because it is a converted you curve and long and by into credit because that is where spread is the widest. by duration [indiscernible] >> ecb expected to ease. same story? >> we have seen swiss national bank easing rates. i think we are not far from the peak in terms of monetary policy including the u.s.. >> we have to talk about chinese bonds we heard from avril

earlier about how yields of the lowest in more than 20 years. how do you play in the chinese bar equipment -- chinese markets? will the run continues? >> we are more u.s. dollar focused. local currency bonds when rates come down because of a slow down like in china you would not get capital gains on your bonds in local currency terms. [indiscernible] exchange rates here so really the rays to play is if you by the local currency and change it back to your base currency u.s. dollars make sure your total return is as attractive as local currency. >> are chinese bonds looking attractive on the back of a lackluster growth forecast from the country yet we heard yesterday they are confident china will achieve the 5% growth . all things considered, even

stimulus up to the stage, can china get to 5% this year? >> i would think so. i think the long-term fundamentals are there. savings yield remain high. what is left is consumer confidence. once that bottoms that we should see the trajectory of growth. >> confidence is contingent on the property sector for the rest of the year, whether china can stabilize property prices. where are we with that? >> they have to introduce a couple of policies. they are moving in the right direction i would say. it is a good sign. policy to stabilize the property sector. >> what are the risks? >> another waves of lack of confidence across defaults which a lot of it has already been

factored in and with the savings i think we are not far from the bottom. we need a trigger in terms of building up confidence. >> you expect more confidence than most. s&p saying you should expect a new wave of defaults as soon as next year. what are your thoughts? >> markets are always forward-looking and a lot of debt before negative news that had already been priced into their is a price for everything and the way we look at the markets today is yes, u.s. technology stocks were the main driver of returns but energy stocks, financials, health care, all markets including china being that the price earning

[indiscernible] so a lot of it has been priced in. it is not a bad time to reengage. >> if a lot has been priced in, how do you explain the lack of interest in chinese assets you look at the you want it remains lackluster despite the pboc to prop it up with this fixing every single day. how do you make sense of the lack of interest? >> i think on the back of investors is really the dollar so the dollar is the overarching currency in terms of strength not just against the yuan but against most currencies across the world. when the fed starts easing up we will have some of these pressures be relieved and local currency should be able to come back. >> a weaker dollar by the end of the year? how much weaker? >> from the peak lower rates

from the fed will usher in a weaker trajectory for the dollar. >> summer lee for the yen going forward? -- some release for the yen -- relief for the yen going forward? >> we hope so. once the dollar loses strength, the yen will appreciate. >> a lot of talk about intervention from the boj or even from the ministry of finance. at what level do you think we would see actual intervention? >> yeah today we are about 116 so if the yen gets sold off in an aggressive manner there will be intervention.

otherwise probably be lower talking up the yen rather than really intervening in the markets. >> the yen level at the end of the year? >> a stronger yen. 150. >> you saw a nvidia dragged down the s&p and recovered somewhat yesterday. still a believer in tech? >> certainly. ai we have been pounding the table on ai since two years ago and we said these companies will generate real growth, not just what we encountered during the dot-com bubble where there was no real earnings and you can see ai is driving not just semi conductor, but driving returns on cloud platforms, cybersecurity, software business companies, ai is just in the

early innings so we continue to like this group as the growth story. income generator and secular growth. >> looking at the new frontiers of tech and we are talking about it when we also talk about how tencent -- china sent a spacecraft to the far side of the moon and it was a successful one and you say there is a play for that in terms of a space trade. >> yes so at dbs we also look for the next thing and we spotted ai and it has worked out well and continues to work out well and as you kind of look what is happening across the world come the speed of innovation and technology has been so fast, today we have autonomous vehicles, intelligent robots, reusable rockets.

it is never too early to look at what will happen with space. and really what we like about this is the expressions, investment expressions. today lies more in the private markets like spacex. aerospace companies will benefit but it is still early stage. what we feel the revenue from space economy will only grow. >> how do you play space tourism? >> the monetize a bull aspect is the launching of satellite constellations and how revenues are derived from that is subscription for internet broadband access. today one third of the world population has no internet because there is no fiber-optic infrastructure or cable so satellites will provide that. that is the revenue. there are other sources of

revenue. tourism is one. it could be observation. that is also satellite revenue-generating stream. and there is some futuristic stuff which i think will not come so soon like mining asteroids. >> it all about innovation. thank you for that. still to come, we go to the world economic forum for a conversation with former u.s. assistant defense secretary graham allison on rising tensions between the u.s. and china. this is bloomberg. ♪

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asian stocks treading water ahead of the report end of the u.s. investors looking for more clarity indication signs perhaps of deflation calling to prompt rate cuts by the fed remember the bond market expecting 300 basis point cut by march the we heard from michelle bowman saying the upside risk remains to inflation and perhaps those cuts may not be appropriate. in terms of the hang seng index down to tenths of 1%. asx 200 lower by 8/10 of 1% and australia cpi coming in faster than expected for a third straight month and it might send a currency higher australia has boosted the rba will resume raising rates at the next meeting in terms of the kospi also in positive territory and we are watching tech stocks and nvidia rebounding tuesday after

slumping the day before that took the valuation below the 3 trillion mark. asia in particular also keeping an eye on the yen front and center with a potential trigger for intervention may be the pce at of the u.s. remember it is all about rate differential. that's why it is important to wait and see what happens with the pce report out of the u.s. let's get you back to dollar-yen where the world economic forum is underway and stephen engle is on top of it. >> yes. our guest is graham allison, the harvard university professor of government and former assistant secretary of defense under the clinton administration in the 1990's. you wrote a book called destined

for war, 2017. i know it is about the vicinities trap that rising power will inevitably overtake establish power and potentially lead to conflict. tell me please that we are not headed for a military conflict, more commercial. >> the good news would be if that were true, bad news is obviously it is not. what it taught us was with a rapidly rising power, seriously threatens to displace a major moving power, it shifts the seesaw, it changes the techno -- basically changes the tectonics of power in the world and disturbs the surface, everything on the surface. one of those conditions most often is when parties find themselves in war. not every time.

in the last 500 time -- 500 times 12 ended in war. the cold war was like a war but without bombs and bullets. it came close. so a war between u.s. and china is not inevitable but the party seem on track for business as usual and business as usual would turn out to be tragic. >> the u.s. is taking steps with the export controls and terrorist regime from the trump administration and -- tarif regime from the trump administration. >> it is complicated. in principle the ruling power

never wants to cede its position to a rising power. the framework has provided for the best world we have seen for 78 years, basically peace, stability, growth and prosperity so the americans with our alliances with japan, south korea, south korea and america as a nation power, we think it has been hugely beneficial. from a chinese point of view, this is called the south china sea, this is the east china sea, this is the philippines, what are you having to do with a

conversation with taiwan, it's between parts of china so historically that dynamic makes in every instance the rising power [indiscernible] and in some ways it may be an certainly in the ai space as jake sullivan has said the subjective is to win the largest advantage it can in every frontier technology that will have implication for supporting it and that is basically the whole new technology frontier. >> how do we avoid the conflict? china sees this as provocation. and you can add onto that the geopolitical hotspots, not just economic issues the u.s. has imposed with export restrictions but more inflammatory moves on taiwan and the no limits partnership packed xi jinping

has with putin and there is already war in ukraine as a proxy war. >> absolutely and from a chinese or russian point of view the idea that the american land international order is one in which they should behave according to the rules we have designed seems a little strange. from the chinese point of view, xi jinping thinks he is bringing china back to the natural place, the restoration, the natural place at the center of the world. if we were chinese we would feel sympathetic to that. the good news i would say is both biden and xi as they have

discussed in conversations understand war between their countries would be devastating for both so neither biden nor xi wants war and they understand they could get themselves into a war not because they want one, but because of misunderstandings and provocation from a third party. they do not want that to happen. so they have talked about that and you can see evidence of it in the behaviors. taiwan to be very dangerous for both. so there private candid conversations about the most delicate issues is exactly what we would like and we are trying to manage a difficult situation in which we are seriously competitive and survival for both depends on not getting into a war. ai will also be an interesting area. on one hand it becomes part of

the rivalry or if they are able to constrain [inaudible] >> climate is one area where they could find common ground. ai will be more tricky. graham allison, thank you so much for being on bloomberg tv. we could have a whole half-hour talking about this. we have only scratched the surface. >> thank you for that. geopolitical tensions also one of the risks for markets. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

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markets on the mainland before going to lunch. a wet day in shanghai as you see on the screen and avril hong is on top of developments and we had a economists upbeat raising the forecast for china gdp but you know why the risks remain. >> there are concerns about the chinese economy after the performance in the stock market kind of matches what we are seeing with the weather in shanghai the equities really coming under pressure today bucking the trend where we see a bit of a recovery of the asia-pacific tech lead i and these concerns about the chinese economy re-centered on the property sector and colleagues have encouraged the numbers for the first two months of june and they show the home sales have been struggling despite the recovery in the month of may after the government talked about more plans for stimulus for the sector so that is really the heart of the issue do not forget and we also have towards the end of the month some of these pmi's coming out from china expected to show for the

slowing and economic activities so this is what we see in equityzen we are also seeing dollar china climbing even higher on the offshore yen particularly not far from the 730 level today with the pboc coming through with yet another week yen fix let's look the board because despite the selling in the currency and equity space we are seeing the rally underway and chinese bonds across the curve the 10-year yield hitting lower level in more than two decades on this rally is really being fueled by the expectations we are going to get more government stimulus and concerns about the economy but do not forget also that when we saw the multi-decade lows that the yields hit in april it caused warnings from the pboc it is unclear if we are looking at specific levels but that is certainly something we are watching out for the board again because as you say economists are pretty upbeat they have released their forecast for the four-year flow china and this is really because of what they are

expecting out of the outlook for exports. and this raising is quite a fair bit compared to the forecast that it came through in may you know the expects they are to be reasoning global demand thanks to a shift towards goods from services demand has. >> betting on exports yet chinese companies increasingly facing trade tensions and barriers. thank you. it is day two of the world economic forum meetings. let's get the latest on what has been discussed so far with stephen engle, who has been reporting to us from the event. what is the tone of discussions? >> i wish i could sit in on some sessions. i've been here on the camera every hour, that is the big problem when we cover these. we meet and talk with guests but we do not take -- we do not get to go in and hear what they are

saying but i guarantee they are talking about the chinese economy and where it is heading. we spoke earlier about the lack of momentum in stocks in china, they got a big boost of policy support in april but that petered out. they are trying to find some catalysts to keep the economy stable. give the stock market wings but right now it is tough. he also mentioned trade action. we talked a lot about ev sanctions potentially coming in europe and we know the trade barriers have gone up in the u.s. so all of these combined are being discussed here and there is no simple solution. we heard from the premier li qiang yesterday and he talked about essentially decoupling in the global economy is going to send the global some -- global

economy and xi -- supply chains into a disruptive spiral but we did not hear any clues really as far as policy directive which we are waiting for from beijing next month when we get the long-delayed third where the central committee of the communist party will essentially lay out economic priorities and policies for the long term for the next five years or 10 years so that will get clues but one thing he mentioned yesterday repeatedly was technology and self-sufficiency so that will likely be a big priority but that is a long-term strategy obviously. >> when it comes to china it is an issue of confidence and we know tensions with u.s. and china will likely go up in the

lead up to the u.s. election. >> absolutely, that is another thing being discussed. i moderated a panel yesterday on the u.s. economy and where it goes from here. you cannot really have a discussion about it without also adding in trade issues with china. for almost an hour we discussed extensively what the ramifications would be of a change in the white house with a trump presidency. the biden administration has talked about export controls in ai and computing and other areas including the new capacity industries like batteries and solar but they also contends the overall trade tariffs are for percent of overall trade. keep in mind on the campaign trail donald trump has talked

about a 60% tariff on all imports from china so the ramifications of that, and again it might just be talk by the republicans, but it raises this specter of a much deeper trade war between china and the u.s., not to mention obviously what we already see between europe and china with the germans vice chancellor in the last few days trying to mitigate any retaliation from china. >> and we saw how the yuan slumped under the trump administration. stephen engle, thank you so much . staying with china tensions with the u.s. also ramping up on another front, space. china is the first nation to successfully return a probe from the far side of the moon. let's get more on their space race with the u.s. with bruce einhorn.

what does this mission represent for a chinese space ambitions and what might the u.s. response be? >> it's a great achievement for the chinese. they have done something no one else has done, landed on the far side of the moon and gathered material and brought it back to earth. no other country has even landed on the far side of the moon. that china did it in 2019. no other country has tried. the u.s. has plants with nasa backing some companies that will send -- u.s. has some plans with nasa backing some companies that will send spacecraft to the far side in the next few years but china can count this as a big achievement. it's also relevant for the race between u.s. and china with both countries wanting to send astronauts to the moon by the end of the decade.

the americans plan to send astronauts in the artemis program in the next few years, the first time since the end of the apollo program in 1972. china has never sent astronauts to the moon and they have a goal of doing so by the end of the decade. the mission the just concluded is part of a series of missions to explore areas around the south pole, which is where china wants to build a permanent presence on the moon. it is something china is partnering with russia and hoping to work with other countries on. the americans have a rival plan and a lot of countries are involved. both countries hope to make progress in the next few years. this mission china just concluded also has a lot of scientific value. there is a lot of excitement among scientists in being to --

in getting access to those samples that were taken from the far side of the moon. the composition of the samples is very different than the nearside that we can see. so there is an opportunity for scientists to learn more about the moon and maybe even the earth. >> big ambitions in space and perhaps the slowing economy could be hindering those ambitions bruce einhorn thank you. takeda pharmaceuticals says it sees multiple growth opportunities including new treatments in the pipeline and the growing use of ai. elizabeth rate -- reynolds spoke with christoph weber and asked about the potential impact of the u.s. bill seeking to sanction some chinese biotech firms. >> it will not impact us much because we do not depend on any chinese company. we work a little with some companies but it is very little

engagement so it will not be impacted much. we are going very fast in china, growing fast in china but we make sure we have no dependency from any chinese company. >> i wanted to ask about your drugs pipeline. what can you tell us about the most promising drugs you have come out? you have high expectations for a drug for psoriasis and another for sleep disorders. can you tell me about those and others? >> yes. we have several in the last stage which is right before getting approval and all six are exciting for patients. the ones you just mentioned, one is a molecule to treat

narcolepsy, which is a sleep disorder. we are about to enter phase 3 and we are very excited. the other is for crohn's disease and colitis and psoriasis. it can treat many things. the goal is to have good efficacy and for it to be convenient to use. it has high revenue potential. >> one of the things we are looking into this year is ai. how far is ai already part of your development of new drugs and how far do you expect it to develop in the future as a tool? >> on one side we are the

beginning of the use of ai but we are moving very fast so this is very big agenda for us. we see already some application and research for two design molecules for example we see application and development to accelerate medical trials and design better clinical trials and we see application in manufacturing quite a lot. where we combined image recognition and machine learning to improve our manufacturing operations, we see application and commercial to have better interaction with doctors. so we are moving very very fast. it will completely transform the company in the next three or five years. >> today the yen has gone full back 160 against the dollar. what is the effect on your pharmaceutical company? >> 50% of our revenue was in the

u.s. so this is a tailwind for us. that is a short-term tailwind because if a low yen impacts negatively the japanese economy eventually financing leaning toward the gdp and so japanese economy is impacted will be of secondary impacted because it will be less financing of health care so i think in the short-term it is a plus but long-term if the economy is facing a downside scenario in japan it will be to the detriment. >> christoph weber speaking with isabel reynolds. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

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since x pretty unchanged and we have the nifty bank index slightly in the positive one we may be watching today is done a group doubling capital spending accelerating existence -- investments in green energy and yet another side they have the fallout from the damaging report behind it and the indian ruby 8340 three pretty unchanged versus the usd and the bank of india governors says that the nation's growth momentum is very strong. he said the rbi was confident in the growth projections for the year and that models suggest even stronger momentum ahead and added it is essential to keep inflation in check. >> i mean each and every word of it. india is on the threshold of a major structural shift in the

growth trajectory, moving towards 8% gdp growth in a sustained manner. >> let's get reaction from our next guest who has over 16 years of experience in fund management and credit. good to have you with us. esa stand number two 8%. >> are b.i. in the last meeting had revised the gdp forecast and i clearly see there is an upward to that number so all the confident indicators are continuing to show very steady growth so clearly there is an upward biased to the projection rbi has given and i think the market will follow in terms of estimates so i personally feel

7.2 to 7.5 number for the year is clearly achievable broadly on the back of government spending and a very strong consumption domestically. >> he talked about how india needs to keep inflation in check. what do you think are the risks going forward on the back of geopolitical tensions which might see oil prices rise? >> if you see the headline and core cpi numbers for the last few months have on a sustained basis been on a downward trend and i do not think inflation going ahead will [indiscernible] as you rightly mentioned the geopolitical risks in terms of the impact on crude oil will be [indiscernible] with respect to india

specifically is how it plays out and the impact on inflation so barring those risks i think we should see an inflation i expected to average 4.7% for the year and this should give more than enough for the rbi for the later part of the year. >> part of the euphoria has to do with india's inclusion in the global bond index. a lot of people say it has been fully priced in. how does india fully benefit from the inclusion of what does it need to do? >> just to give context, indian bonds have done extremely well for the past year. in terms of market positioning the domestic investors have been fully invested and are sitting on -- we already see $10 billion so slow coming in since last

september so given the overall positive structural outlook on india the consensus view is bonds will head southward from here and as we get closer to the inclusion we have the first round of inclusion we just get the day after tomorrow the positive momentum has just picked up pace so yes you are right to the extent that probably the market is positioned for the inclusion and i do not expect any immediate movement in [indiscernible] up looking from a structural perspective the move and bond yields is not done because india is in such a sweet spot right now and i believe it will remain a preferred investment destination. when you talk about strong and stable macroeconomics you talk about very prudent fiscal policy

by the government and proactive central bank, stable currency, it is a perfect mix and that is why the bonds have remained well anchored and the kind of growth the real money domestic investors such as pension funds have seen significant growth year on year and given the kind of business these investors are in the demand for long bond is here to stay and [indiscernible] majority of 15 years is 40% of the index on that will add to the demand scenario so to say the last four years the supply demand landscape has changed for the better for india -- all

these factors bowed very well for india. >> we are seeing a lot of and trust. does it make indian bonds more susceptible and vulnerable to sudden withdrawal? >> i would not agree because [indiscernible] holding still the overall government debt it is minuscule and the indian currency market is 1.3 trillion and the holding is hardly 2.5% as opposed to a china or indonesia so india still has a long way to go till we reach a point where sudden outflow and we need to understand the indian government security market is vibrant and liquid market so unless we reach a point where holding in market

become a meaningful size i do not really see it as a challenge. >> thank you so much for being with us today. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> here are some of the top stories we are following. julian assange has walked free from a u.s. court after pleading guilty to leaking national security secrets. this ends the 14 years of drama that has seen him imprisoned in the u.k. and self-imposed exile are in a london embassy. he entered his plea. this results an international flight to prosecute him over the leak of the documents and diplomatic cables since 2010. the philippine ambassador to washington warns that conflict with beijing in the south china sea could engulf the asian region. he says tension of a disputed race has created an incendiary situation. earlier this month the clash of a philippine mission with the chinese injured one sailor.

an alleged misuse is of the design feature and safety against children. tiktok is accused of exploiting by creating an addictive product that is harmful to mental health. they say they have parental controls. let's check the markets. aussie assets on the back of inflation accelerating faster than expected for a third straight month. aussie dollar the highest in may. rba will resume raising rates at the next meeting. that is it from bloomberg markets asia. horizons middle east and africa is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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