>> welcome to bloomberg markets. i'm sonali basak. we have the s&p 500 hanging out today only about 0.2 percent higher. the nasdaq 100 also in the green for the day. the bond market is pretty interesting on the day. you are seeing a barely to basis point move higher in the two year. the 10 year moving almost eight basis points on the day. traders betting on steepeners. the u.s. election cycle coming further into focus. many people wondering what the election cycle means for stocks and bonds.

some midday movers on the equity side. let's take a look at birkenstock, upgraded to buy from neutral. it raised to a street high. citigroup reinstated coverage of birkenstock with a buy recommendation. birkenstock up only about 1%, but a recent ipo. we are watching chewy shares. it spiked after keith gill disclosed a 6.6% stake on the country -- company. he owns roughly 9 million shares, worth about $245 of course now you have chewy down almost 12%. we are talking about elections. shares we are closely watching. two elections we are watching closely around the world. thursday the u.k. holds a snap election and france and its

allies dominated the first round of voting on sunday. how do you think about the most recent results and what it means moving forward? >> it has certainly been a big shock and france. it's the first time the national rally has really dominated a national election like this. this is about who's going to form the next government so it's been really extraordinary. there's another round to come this sunday. how much of a united front to the other parties try to put up against the national rally? that's going to really determine whether or not the national rally is able to complete sort of this electoral takeover and end up having enough seats in the national assembly to form a government after sunday. sonali: how do you think about macron's response to what we

have seen out of the initial results? how does he move forward from here? >> his initial response has been nothing. he put out one little statement sunday night, oh, all parties with the same democratic and republican philosophies should come together as a united front against the national rally. beyond that, so far he has said really nothing. one of the issues is he's become quite unpopular in france. certainly in the run-up to the first round he was speaking quite a lot on this election and a lot of his advisors and particularly the people running in his party said stop talking because you are hurting our chances. if he does speak, it might help promote the national rally rather than his own troops. sonali: we are also talking about the snap election over in

the u.k. as well. describe a little bit about what it says about the changing political landscape in the european union particular. >> i was really distressed earlier today when a colleague of mine wrote on a column pointing out how the u.k. appears to be the bastion of sound money and sober thinking compared to france. it used to be the opposite sense brags that back in 2016. so it really is sort of a shift that you are seeing. the eu broadly speaking has been moving more to the right. you have right-wing parties that run the government in italy, hungary, a majority in the netherlands. it's not true everywhere. poland has moved to the left. the u.k. seems to be going from the conservatives to a labor government likely. it seems to be sort of coming towards a more reasonable set of policies, regardless of your

perceptions on political orientations, and it makes them seem like they're are becoming a little more pragmatic and the eu is becoming a little bit more politically divergent and politically challenged. sonali: thank you for joining us from france, alan katz, on a very heated week in the country. here in the u.s., the supreme court ruled donald trump has some immunity from criminal charges for trying to reverse the 2020 election results, all but ensuring that a child will happen before the november election. for more, we're joined by kailey leinz. this has serious ramifications for the election upcoming but map out the path here from now until november for donald trump when you take this most recent decision into perspective. kailey: it potentially looks clearer because he may not have another child to contend with between now and november in

washington. i would remind our audience the case brought against him in washington was brought by special counsel jack smith, for different criminal counts relit its efforts to efforts to overturn the 2020 election. the supreme court ruled today that donald trump should be immune from prosecution for official acts he took during his presidency, though he does not have immunity for unofficial acts. this is only a partial victory for donald trump. the victory essentially comes in the idea that this is going to delay the process significantly further. what the court did in the 6-3 ruling, split along party lines, they have now kicked it back down to lower courts to delineate what exactly constitutess an official act versus an unofficial act, those would be in theory things that donald trump that as a private citizen or presidential candidate versus within the context of his presidency itself. the judge in the case in washington has said she would give parties three months to

prepare for a trial once the legal issues were sorted out. given the timeline, it makes it highly unlikely the trial could begin let alone finish before the election in november. this has implications well beyond donald trump and his legal battle -- this sets a precedent for all presidents going forward now that the high court has made this ruling. sonali: it certainly does and its historic. also in addition to what this means, for donald trump, what does this mean for special counsel jack smith as he moves forward? kailey: it complicates the case greatly. there has to be its elimination between what may constitute -- a delineation between what may constitute an official or unofficial act. they also ruled official actions of the presidency cannot even be contained in evidence in making his case. i do something jack smith argued he should -- that is something jack smith argued he should be able to do.

at least be able to describe what those official acts were as part of the prosecution of him. but the high court today said that cannot happen. adding a difficulty level for jack smith assuming the kids can at some point move forward into trial. the supreme court in a separate ruling last week ruled in a case regarding a jan. 6 defendant, essentially limiting the use of what can be described as obstruction of an official proceeding. that case potentially has ramifications for jack smith's case as well considering 2 of the 4 charges were obstruction of an attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, another complicating factor. the supreme court is not just have been great influence over the future legal issues of donald trump but has highly political ramification we are not just talking about donald trump as a former president but as a presumptive republican nominee, who has a very well -- who very well could be president of the u.s. again. sonali: of course there is more

"balance of power" coming up later today. coming up, more trouble ahead for boeing. the justice department prepares fraud charges. we will talk about what is at stake, next. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ [introspective music] recipes. recipes written by hand and lost to time. are now being analyzed and restored using the power of dell ai.

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sonali: this is bloomberg markets. i'm sonali basak. it's time for the stock of the hour. boeing announced a plan to buy back spirit arrow for $4.7 billion in a bid to improve manufacturing. separately bloomberg has learned the u.s. justice department will charge the company with criminal

fraud. leading it to choose between pleading guilty or taking the risk of going to trial. boeing reportedly has until the end of the week to decide. bloomberg intelligence's george ferguson joins us with more. if boeing is faded with one choice or the other here to plead guilty or go to trial, how do you think out those decisions and what it means for investors moving forward? >> i will start by copy out -- caveating that i am not a legal analysts but from the financial perspective, there is a $250 million additional fine. i think they talked about bringing in an outside quality inspector. and so, to me, none of those

ramifications sound terrible. they sound very manageable, from the company's perspective. i would think it would be worth something for them to potentially put this problem to bed and to pay the fine and get this behind them so they can focus on their second half of recovery for their business which is really the most important thing for boeing right now, they burns a lot of cash in q1 and we expect them to burn another $4 billion or so in q2. they can't continue to burn cash at those rates. they've got to increase build rates for the 737, delivery rates, up into the 30's at least after this year. it behooves them to focus on that given what we've seen from the doj so far. sonali: if they were toplead guilty and take a charge at this point, one major question around something like that would be what it means

for their work with any government contracts. how important is that to boeing? >> the agreement would not affect that, but if they want to trial and they lost at trial, the company could be considered -- it could be considered a felony conviction against the company. any situation that puts them in jeopardy, government contracts is bad for boeing because they do a lot of government business, if you look at their defensive government portions of services of their business, then a good portion of the just services business, about half of it is government contracts, 40%, 50% of their business might be government related. on the flipside of that, the government would not be able to make important products for the defense department like the

casey 46 aerial tanker without boeing. airbus bid on this project years ago but is not building them right now. the current fleet is 50 years old. it's important for u.s. power projection. so there are contracts like that inside the boeing portfolio that i think the government would have a really hard time resourcing in the nearer to medium-term. there a bit of a catch 22 on the government's side here. sonali: i want to get your opinion on the spirit arrow -- aero systems deal. what would it mean for boeing financially? how much of a risk does it create to their credit rating? >> it all really looks like the rating agencies are looking past the current problems at boeing and keeping their investment grade/the current readings in place. we look at spirit aero systems is another $4 billion.

if they did the pro forma work on that, net debt is probably going to be $50 billion, in q2, pro forma for spirit aero systems. they are not going to earn anything to support that level of debt this year or even next year. if you look at modl on the bloomberg terminal, it looks like analysts think about $8 billion, $8.5 billion of ebita against net debt maybe -- typically have to have something like three times multiple on the ebita. they are looking well down the road and if they get deliveries moving, if the second half recovery works, things are improving nicely into 2025, my guess is the rating agencies can continue to hang on and let boeing go at ratings that don't

totally fit their financial profile -- if not, if this stumbles, they could have a problem with that. sonali: certainly a complicated calculus and a lot on the line. george ferguson, thank you so much for your time. coming up, we will look at the strategy behind blackrock's decision to buy prequin for more than $3 billion. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ olukai sandals capture the feeling of stepping barefoot into wet sand.

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about ai and how machines are sometimes working better than humans are. now bridgewater is launching a fund that uses machine learning as a primary basis of its decision-making for the fund, according to people familiar with the matter. the bridgewater co-cio has been working on ai initiatives at the firm since 2012 and the hedge fund formed an initiative known asaialabs. they will be using edgewater's proprietary technology and models from openai, perplexity and others that is been developing for more than a decade. if it is successful, it could lead the firm to hire more data scientists in the future and change the texture of the staff over at bridgewater. now, turning to real estate, blackstone's $57 billion real estate trust allowing investors to pull all the cash they asked for, even after

redemptions breached a key threshold. we have reports from l.a. we are joined now. it's not the first time they've made a decision like this but in some ways this time it was a bigger decision, wasn't it? >> on a percentage basis, it was a bigger decision. blackstone's b rate generally limits withdrawals to 2% a month or 5% total per quarter. june being the third month of the quarter, they had less latitude, and investors requested to pull about $800 million or 1.4% of the fund -- which is over the actual amount they were allowed for the whole quarter so they said, well, it's not that much more, let's let them have it because they want to essentially appease investors and not send panic that people won't be able to get their money when they want it.

and they see the demand for withdrawals kind of declining after a big uptick last month. sonali: on one hand, looking at redemptions doesn't feel great, on the other hand, the fact that they are able to meet them is a sign of confidence. apparently blackstone said redemption requests are 85% below their 2023 peak and 50% lower than may. redemptions seem to be cooling. how do you describe the state of the issue right now? >> there was a big uptick at the beginning of 2023 when interest rates went up and people were afraid they could not get their money out. that was the first time blackstone actually restrict the withdrawals. so people were like -- we've got to get out of here. in may, another fund said they were limiting all withdrawals to .33% a month. so people were like, we have to

get out of blackstone, too. so basically, they overcame the panic and things are nowreadjusting to normal . sonali: thank you so much for your reporting. it's time for the wall street beat. blackrock is set to acquire prequin for $3.2 billion. it's the latest push for blackrock, best known for its index funds, to become a player in alternative assets and te democratization -- the democratization of it. the parents of bloomberg news joins no, covering blood prep for bloomberg. they brought gip -- bought gip earlier this year, now prequin. they seem to be making this massive alternatives push. >> they are. they have $10.5 trillion. best known as a fixed income manager. expanding to etf's and index

assets which boomed over the last 10 years. what they have seen the last six months to a year or so is the growth -- the really fast growing world of private assets. they have made a concerted push to expand and try to bulk up scale, technology, risk management across different parts of blackrock's company. when you look at the different pieces, most notably the two deals, gip in january and this deal announced yesterday into this morning for $3.2 billion, you see this sort of detail -- the sort of details being flushed out of the plan. sonali: explain how hard of a path it has been to get here for blackrock to transition into the world of alternatives. >> what you have seen in the market is some of the blackstone's, apollo's, just massive growth in private assets over the past decade plus, and again i think blackrock sees this and sees the potential

growth of them, and they have identified certain areas within private assets that they want to essentially own, and infrastructure is a massive play for them, a second area is technology, how to integrate the potential risks alongside public security stocks and bonds which they have already -- which they already are dominating markets for. how do they combine public/ private assets into a whole portfolio? their play an idea is putting it together essentially is one firm -- as one firm. sonali: one quick quote from larry fink, we believe we can index the private markets. thanks for your coverage. this was all confirming a bloomberg scoop we had earlier regarding this blackrock-prequin deal. i'm sonali basak. that does it for bloomberg markets. the bond market is in flux. stick with us through "balance of power."

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>> from the world of politics, to the world of business, this is "balance of power." live from washington, d.c. >> it's a ruling that impacts

donald trump's legal journey, but also the presidency at large. welcome to the fastest show in politics. the supreme court rules today on donald trump's immunity claims without actually ruling. i'm joe mathieu alongside kailey leinz and washington. a very important day here in washington and supreme court history. handing this case back down to the appeals court. big questions on whether there will be a jack smith trial. kailey: as possible -- it is possible this ruling could effectively mean that this will not go to trial before the election in november. the court, finding donald trump does have some immunity for official acts but ot -- but not unofficial ones. to what extent was donald trump acting as president versus presidential candidate? the court, not deciding on what constitutes what.