tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg July 9, 2024 1:00am-2:00am EDT
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the nato summit begins in washington today and all eyes are on joe biden as the president and the white house tell democrats to stop the infighting over his reelection campaign. and chipmaker tsmc briefly enters the $1 trillion club. tom: u.s. stocks closing above 5570 on the s&p yesterday. modest gains but a fresh record, the 35th of the gear. morgan stanley suggesting a 10% correction is in the cards given the risks around the election. currently though as we lead up to the open in europe this is
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day, you're looking at gains coming through for the ftse 100. european stocks, the benchmark looking for a loss of .2%. s&p futures looking to build on the gains of yesterday pointing up by .3%. nasdaq also pointing out. and the asian markets benefiting from the play around semiconductors once again. we look at cross as set focused on the yield space as we filled up to the testimony from jay powell. will he give guidance in terms of the view around rate cuts? markets are pricing in a 70% chance of the press cut coming through and september. the 10 year currently 4.28%. brent crude, $85 a barrel with more stability around oil as hurricane beryl does not cause as much damage as was feared.
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gold with a gain of .4%. crossing to singapore. we have a check on the asian markets and the gains coming through are quite pronounced for japan. >> look at the nikkei not to be outdone by the s&p 500. it is on its best performance and the biggest gains since april. we could see another record high. this year it has gained 20% fueled by the japanese currency. and part of it is underpinned by their preference towards the japanese equities versus their chinese counterparts. chinese stocks continue to languish. you can pick your bearish driver. the concern about the chinese economy is part of what has fueled the chinese bond raleigh. authorities have been taking apps to cool it.
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-- have been taking steps to cool it adding repo operations. the takeaway for investors seems to be they were addressing the rally in the bond markets and there was a heavy selloff that we saw of chinese bonds. we are seeing the dollar china taking higher as investors shift their focus towards what we will get from jay powell. the dollar has been climbing. perhaps there is a concern that he might not be as dovish as some might like. tom: thank you very much with an important check on the asian markets. to the u.s. now with the focus on joe biden and the pressure that he remains under. a new york democrat, aoc and other progressives are standing by the president even as voices across a party call on him to step aside.
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biden maintains he is the best candidate to beat donald trump. let's bring in ross matheson. let's start with aoc and the endorsement there. is it a surprise that the progressives are lining up behind the president at this point? >> it is interesting because he has had a difficult relationship with the progressives over the years but they have fallen in behind him at least for now and that is for a number of reasons. potentially the biggest one is they are concerned this is giving a lot of oxygen to donald trump's campaign. they say there needs to be better party unity. this is red meat for the mill for the republicans and per donald trump's campaign. it is giving all the airtime to the question of joe biden's durability as a candidate. the narrative around joe biden is around his health and age.
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for -- this is feeding the rumor mill for the republicans. they are indicating that this is part of a right wing conspiracy. but as you say joe biden is still facing those questions. he still has quite a few and the party saying, is this the time for him to step aside? the narrative is not going away. tom: where do the donors to the democratic party stand at this point? are we seeing a split? do they have a significant influence at this point? >> some of the big donors have been trying potentially to raise money behind the scenes for altered -- for alternative candidates. they could be whispering in each other's you're about joe biden stepping aside. some of the key donors that we
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have spoken to especially in the private sector don't feel they are in a position to influence joe biden. they are on the sidelines expressing their view. they also have frustration feeling they don't have a voice in the room. joe biden has a large warchest to hand already. he has a lot of money at his disposal. they are concerned that if they push this too far you could have significant democratic and for months and through the convention. does that leach into september or later and what does that do but pave the runway for donald trump. you are seeing some question among the donors as well. tom: there is the nato summit today in washington and the spotlight will presumably be on joe biden and his performance. how significant is this event for the president and for macron and keir starmer with his first
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international summit. >> this meeting is about an opportunity to show strength in unity for nato against russia, china. all of the optics and instead the will be on some of these individual leaders. not just joe biden. he has a dinner at 8:00. he has said publicly that is past his bedtime. he will have a big press conference later in the week that he has to host. you have macron coming to the meeting after the weekend's french elections and he has to manage a tricky situation. he is arguably weakened and distracted. the german leader is coming out the back of a pretty poor showing in european parliamentary elections. you have a new u.k. leader, keir starmer, a brand-new leader on the global stage.
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you have a lot of optics about how things individual leaders will perform. tom: thank you very much. an excellent set up ahead of the nato summit and the continued scrutiny of joe biden. u.s. lawmakers are inpatient for interest rate cuts and they will get their chance to fed -- to press the fed chair. joining us now is our mliv strategist mark cranfield. to some extent the investment community are sitting on the sidelines ahead of this event looking for clarity. do you expect powell to lock in the september cut? which assets do you think are most likely to move around this? mark: there will be currency traders clued into what he has to say. it -- he would not need much to move the dial.
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the chances are that he will lean slightly dovish. he recently brought up the inflationary tactic which is something he has used before. we had 10 year yields go both -- go below 4%. from the bond traders point of view all he has to do is sound a little dovish and then they have plenty to run for. it is ironic. at the last meeting the federal reserve indicated just one interest rate cut this year. by the time he has finished, we could be looking at three interest rate cuts back to where we were at the beginning of the year. there is a lot of room for the treasury curve to move on the back of it. one of the outstanding
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currencies is the british pound which looks cleaner. people are quite bullish on the pound. there are headwinds in france. look at china. clearly china is not ready to turn its currency around. a bit of a mixed picture. on balance there is room for the dollar to go lower particularly because of the pound, the canadian dollar and the australian dollar as well. people are putting their toes in the water but if you look at the shape of the curve, it is already inverted but not by as much as it was earlier in the year. there is room for it to move by quite a bit by the end of the week. tom: mark cranfield what they set up for jay powell and the testimony kicks off on tuesday with a focus on the dollar but also treasuries. currently 4.28% on the u.s. 10 year.
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that testimony and the inflation data coming out on thursday. the new british parliament will set for the first time since the election and the results that came through with a commanding majority for the labour party. and big game coming through for the liberal democrats as well with more than 70 seats for the u.k. we will look at the british parliament sitting for the first time since the consequential election outcome. jay powell, the testimony that mark was walking us through and yellen will testify as well. investors will be scrutinizing the language from both of those key participants. later in the day the u.s. will be auctioning off a three year bond so we will test the appetite for u.s. debt. sovereign debt has been well-received. a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going.
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terminal subscribers can go to dayb on the terminal to get a roundup of some of the key stories including joe biden. as the debate rages around his position leading up to the election in november. the u.k. parliament sits for the first time since the elections. we have a preview of what to expect for the labour party's first 100 days in office. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the u.k. parliament sits today with a fresh group of lawmakers. yesterday the chancellor rachel reeves vowed to get written building again as she revealed a slew of planning reforms. >> sustained economic growth is the only route to the improved prosperity that our country needs and to improve the living standards of working people. what previous governments have been unwilling to take the difficult decisions to deliver growth or have waited too long to actiq, i will not hesitate. growth was the labour party's mission in opposition. it is now our national mission. there is no time to waste. tom: let's bring in bloomberg's u.k. correspondent, lizzy burden. we knew that planning and the reform to be planning would be
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central to this government. were there any surprises? >> the whole point is there will be no surprises because labor wants to show that they are delivering what they promised in the campaign which means stability which they hope will translate into and outperformance of growth. some say their growth target is unrealistic. you heard the new first female chancellor rachel reeves talking about growth being the focus on part of that will be getting more homes built. you have greenbelt in the u.k., the countryside that surrounds towns, villages and cities starting in 1938. labor is says you have to build on the less attractive parts of it to get this target of 1.5 million homes in five years. you can imagine the newly elected labour mp's wincing at the idea that they have to go back to the constituents that in
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your backyard that new homes will be built. we have talked about the state of the u.k. housing market and the inaccessibility to the property for younger britons. tom: that is on row around planning. what other policies are you looking for in the next 100 days? >> there should be no surprises because bloomberg had the scoop for a lot of these plans well in advance. labor has had this 20 point poll lead for many months so they are very prepared for government. keir starmer made a speech over the weekend saying he is restless for a change. some of the things we are expecting include great british energy, new board or agency to head off the threat from nigel frosh'-- nigel farage's
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party. and we are expecting a task force on a national --. today keir starmer heads to washington for the nato summit. he will be sandwiched between biden and the ukraine president at the table. it will not have gone unnoticed that he is firmly sticking to his commitment to only spend 2.5 percent of gdp on defense spending when the fiscal situation allows. potentially a point of contention with diplomats in the room. tom: diplomacy and nato. and the policy priorities domestically. thank you indeed. coming up we switch focus because of the relentless ai rally has helped tsmc. it is a trillion dollars in
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tom: welcome back to "daybreak: europe." adrs in chipmakers tsmc briefly hit market cap of $1 trillion on wall street overnight driven by booming demand for ai. annabelle droulers joins us now on the key milestone. could there be further of site and what has propelled the gains for tsmc? >> there can be further upside
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and what has propelled them so far is the ai demand. nvidia or tsmc is in an important position. that has underpinned the gains we have seen in the stock so far. there was an upgrade from morgan stanley lifting their price target on the stock by 9%. it is important to note these are the adrs. the adrs do trade at a slight premium a lot of the time. the premium is because those shares are more accessible the foreign investors. taking the gains so far this year to around 80%. tom: briefly overtaking berkshire hathaway with the context you put.
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when it comes more broadly, you monitor the sector closely, in terms of sentiment around ai, the expectations that it has further to run. where are we between the gap of expectations and sentiment? >> there are a lot of different views. citigroup is one of the latest saying that ai stocks are now the most stretched going back five years. what they are measuring is the basis of 60% of the market cap on such names have growth rates running above consensus. that indicates we could see a little rebalancing coming through in the sector. citigroup advises them to consider to take profit -- and to rebalance a little bit across the ai value chain. there are other beneficiaries.
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we talk about the infrastructure surrounding a guy, data center providers and utility stocks could all gain. it is worth pointing out that citigroup has that call out but we get more as nvidia trending higher overnight and ubs raising its price target on the stock from around 125 to around 150. there continues to be optimism especially for nvidia. tom: bloomberg's annabelle droulers, thank you for the update on the ai theme and the stretch valuations. the tsmc story as well. other stories making news. the hungarian prime minister has met with the chinese president during an unannounced visit to beijing. this was days after a similar surprise trip to moscow.
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eu leaders have distanced themselves from his shuttle diplomacy which comes as hungary takes over the blocks rotating presidency. and microsoft has told employees in china that from september they will only be able to use iphones for work according to an internal memo. the measure is part of a coming -- companywide effort to prevent -- to protect against hackers. chinese ev maker pyd has signed a deal with turkey for a one billion dollar factory that the company wants to produce 150,000 electric and hybrid vehicles each year and the plant including an r&d center. the move could bolster the china's -- the chinese automakers foothold in europe.
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and zooming out with the length still on china we focus in on the chinese bond market which has seen some remarkable moves in terms of lower guilds and higher price. the x patient that the economy continued slump -- maybe there will be some policy that comes through. you did see the one year bond yields move higher. the pboc with a new repo tool. we continue to watch the implications of that in terms of the demand that we have seen her chinese bonds. yields getting to record levels in terms of lows. this is a story we will continue to monitor for you. france enters unchartered territory after the snap
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parliamentary election results in political gridlock. we will look at the talks for a new prime minister. the timeframe and potential combinations and what it hurled's for policy coming out of any new government -- and what it heralds for any policy coming out of any new government. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. "soulmates." soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker.
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japan powers asia stocks higher while u.s. futures gain after another record close for the s&p 500. investors look ahead to jerome powell's testimony to congress for clues on fed rate cuts. the nato summit begins in washington overshadowed by the controversies surrounding joe biden as the embattled u.s. president continues pushing against democratic infighting over his campaign. bloomberg learns boeing is in talks to preserve u.s. defense contracts after pleading guilty to criminal charges linked to fatal plane crashes. airbus logs its best month of deliveries this year. let's check in on the markets, is split in terms of use and the sentiment around european markets versus the u.s. counterparts. yes, we have another 35th record for the s&p. 35 so far this year. u.s. futures are pointing to build on that today but european
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futures are a little soggy, maybe the french risk remains on the back of people's minds. european futures are lower. in the u.k., different story. ftse 100 looking to add nine points. s&p futures adding 12 points on the back of the record closing above 5500 70. nasdaq futures getting a lift, putting higher by 67 points, up. let's flip the board and look across assets. the testimony kicking off today and whether or not investors get some clarity in terms of the next steps. if he leans in the fed chair to the market share that there's a 70% chance of the rate cut in september to what chance we see volatility on the back of that. looking at the treasuries. benchmark 10 year, 420 eight. euro-dollar out 108. strength coming through for the euro currently up, shy of a 10th of a percent. continuing to monitor the
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fallout of hurricane beryl and go broke -- posting gate at -- posting data. now to the politics of france and french lawmakers are preparing to begin negotiations over the next government after the country's inconclusive parliamentary election. president emmanuel macron have met with lawmakers from his own party as representatives from across the political spectrum take stock of the situation. let's crossover for the latest. when will we know the name of the new prime minister? what is the timeframe we are looking at? they are staying in a caretaker role for now, what is the expectation for timing and who the new upn could be? quakes that could take some time, he handed his resignation to president macron yesterday, that resignation was refused. he asked him to stay as light as it was necessary for the moment. we don't know whether that means
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july 18 where the new national assembly reconvenes for two weeks or whether that means the opening of the olympic games on july 26th over ever that means the end of the olympics middle of august or even the end of the paralympic games in september. it could take a few days, it could take a few weeks. the new popular front came first in this election. they argue that the new president -- prime minister should come from the left wing. a few names are circulating. some names from the greens. for example, the green meter, the green senator who said that the left wing will actually present a name by the end of this week. you have other options among the socialist ranks. the one who led the campaign for the european parliament elections. or perhaps an alternative name that is outside of these elections would be the president
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of the southwest region, also a socialist and a female leader. a lot of unknowns here, but of course no one has the majority. within macron scam, they are hoping that the longer it takes, the more likely the union of the left will implode and the far left side of this union of the left will actually be a sidelined. even though jean-luc, the vibrant leader of the far left, is hoping the alliance will stay together. many of macron's mps who were reelected in a struggle, also have not forgotten that they were reelected with the support of the left wing. . tom: talking of the left. it was a fiery speech. typical style. he said, we will implement our entire program and nothing less than the entire program. is that feasible from this far
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left part of the political makeup in france? quakes if he implemented the program of the left wing, that would be very costly and not very market friendly. we heard from the business yesterday who said that they are concerned about lasting institutional chaos because the program of the left wing includes measures shut -- such as, canceling the pension fund and lowering the retirement age back to 64. also prices of essential products, increasing the minimum wage, and ending all trade deals. the think tank has estimated the cost of this program at 170 9 billion euros, but you have to bear in mind that the left wing does not have the majority either, so clearly this is very
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unlikely the entire program will be implemented. it will probably be watered down. at the same time, it has also had to see any major economic reform over the next three years until the next presidential elections in 2027, or at least until next summer because you know macron can call new snap elections as soon as june 2025. for now, the pro-business error appears to be over. the front page of the newspaper this morning, companies, the great fear of instability. still a lot of uncertainty in the executive's mind here in france. tom: the headline is all there for the business community. thank you very much following all the twists and turns of the french political circus for us. thank you. let's bring in the head of economics and cross asset
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strategy, thank you for joining us this morning, i was seeking to the cio of can treat them yesterday and he said to me, france is now the sick man of europe. do you agree? >> good morning, i don't know how many sick men do we have in europe, to be honest. is it spain, is it germany. france has been outperforming germany on gdp growth over the last 4, 5 years. europe, overall, i think is in trouble. tom: what should the message be to your clients, to investors who have exposure to this region or are thinking about getting exposure to the region, what do you need to be doing if you are in that position, given the risks that you have just underscored for us?
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>> that is a great question, there are several things you could do if you are forced to invest in europe, you can look for areas such as switzerland or the u.k. i think is a good alternative for stability. sectorial exposure in those indices in the u.k. and in switzerland that are preferable in the current environment, so more global exposure, in the u.k. you have global exposure which is very much a commodity staple oriented, and you have the switzerland case where you have a lot of farmer, a lot of global leaders, and you you would be -- and you would be able to navigate this uncertainty better. unfortunately, it's not only about local politics, it's about how the u.s. is going to shape
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the partnership and the global trade war in the next few months. tom: i want to get your views on that, in terms of the risk premium being priced into a french asset, with a sip political gridlock premium that you expect to be priced into french assets, particularly when thinking of the spread? quex this market is interesting because it has seen a lot of other scenarios where you had political instability and tourism rising, so the market has been used to it, that's why it has been pricing the risks in france. we've seen only a very marginal increase in the bond market risk premium for france. and of course now this voice, i call it the fourth voice in the french parliament. now we have three blocks, center, far left, far-right and
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i think it is now going to be the bull market. so this voice has been very quiet end of the danger is that this summer, may be in august, we will have this voice getting louder if the left is going in the wrong direction. tom: fascinating. so the full force of the bond market may be raising the volume in august. i wonder to what extent will it tie into that, in terms of how investors should think about a trump presidency and what that would mean for european acid exposure. >> europe is tied to the fate of the u.s., it is very weak politically speaking, europe, so u.s. are going to shape a lot of the future of europe. if you go on the direction of the vote for trump, as the odds
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suggest, you have the risk of a global trade war that trump is putting on the table, and you have the end of the war in ukraine. i think in the case of the war in ukraine, whatever happens there, europe would be forced to invest more in defense, whatever happens. and i think that's pretty clear. the big risk is the global trade war, europe has a big trade surplus with the world. so if trump, if you want true -- triggers for a trade war it would be difficult for europe not to react. the other countries in the world will react, it's not just europe, but maybe latin will react. you don't really know how all those trade policies will eventually affect the european businesses that are exporters.
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tom: head of economics and cross asset strategies with interesting takes on these political risk, the here and now and looking ahead to november. thank you very much. united airlines says another of its boeing aircraft has lost a wheel after take off. going to bring you more on that story and the implications for the border industry. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: traders will be watching jerome powell's testimony to congress for signs that the fed may be shifting closer towards a september rate cut ahead of u.s. earnings season, which kicks off on friday and then pushes into next week. let's bring in the global head of private capital advisory at raymond james with a global view
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of what's happening, but we will start with the fed of what to expect. is this a fed chair that will mean dovish in this testimony that will reinforce the bets for a september cut? >> we can certainly hope he goes that way but history has proven otherwise. he continues to keep the message to stay the course on tightening that they will not take easing very light -- lightly. markets are pricing in the cut. the markets have done the job for the advance of the easing message, so he doesn't want to go to soon with signaling -- i doubt he will do that. the u.s. economy might be slowing faceted he expects. the ism data is a big telltale. many of us when we looked at the services about the activity in absolute levels, it's not a good sign when we think about was going to happen in the coming weeks. tom: what breaks first in the
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u.s., inflation or jobs? >> the unemployment rate is at 4.1%, that's higher than the entire year's target for the fed's outcome for 2024. when you look at that and the fact that you've got an economic reality that is decelerating, one has to think the fed has to start loosening in september, at least one, if not to cuts this year, this is the fed that was very late to the party on the inflation genie putting it back in the bottle, took them a long time, likely to be more cautious when it comes to loosening again. tom: how supportive we would be for the equity markets? at 10% correction is in the cards for this equity market, does a cut in september and put that to one side? >> the cut in september is very much priced in. it's more so -- north of 70% for the markets. the markets expect one cut and they'd have to go beyond that to take away downside risks.
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i see where he's coming from, look at the pe metrics, record highs. one doesn't know whether you can enter, which is safe and 38 -- entry spot in terms of the u.s. equity because of the levels that would act. tom: do you stay invested in u.s. equities, do you look to add, do you cycle out, what do you do with that story? >> you think about relative valuation advantages in other markets. the ftse is a great buy in a relative basis, the stock is a great buy. put relative value bits and other parts of the world where there's a stronger growth story with more upside and less downside. the other thing you do in the u.s. market is cycle to stocks doing better in a slow growth environment, and these other defensive sectors like utilities, communication services and so forth. these are better bets on a relative basis than tech, which
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is incredibly overvalued. do you think about more defenses? tom cole you look at utilities, communication services, may be real estate. this is one line that jumped out, any equity pullback will be short-lived and credit markets start to sense risks. how do you tie that into the earnings story we are looking for? things kick off on friday but you have a link on the credit market. >> the private equity market has a lot of linkages to creditors and a lot of these transactions have debt on them. if you look at credit spreads, they are so thin that they are back to 2021 levels that it's as if the last four years did it happen at all. the vix is incredibly low, august geopolitical macro stuff is not really disturb the equity story on the credit story at all. that comes with risks associated with it. eps comes down over the quarters. we see how the earnings season
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goes. companies are now signaling a picture that is a more decelerating picture overall. what is it mean in terms of debt services? if you are private equity own company and have the advantage of your private equity owner, negotiating with the banks and private credit lenders to try to reset your debt. if you do it in the public markets, you better make sure your servicing is cement or you will see your spreads go back the other way. otherwise, it's a great time to do debt issuance, which is what companies are pursuing. tom: we see not come through. thank you. really fascinating takes on these market. global head of private capital at raymond james. a bit of a defensive tilt when it comes to u.s. equity with an eye on utilities, communication services, real estate. u.k. is a part of the mix. now to a corporate story of importance. united saying another of its boeing aircraft lost a main landing gear wheel. don't worry about it, on take
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off. a near repeat of a march incident. benny campbell is a part all of that for us. what is going on, wheels falling off aircraft. the fact that this is in the first time we talked about it is remarkable. what's behind all of this? >> good morning. this is eerily similar to an incident we had a couple of weeks ago, a wheel falling off the aircraft. a lot of people are reading this saying it's going but to be fair, this is the 757 and it's more on united and boeing. it's up to the airline to fix these planes and make sure they are in good neck. obviously the boeing story has been a big one over the last six month and a lot of people are slightly wary of the plane maker and the quality of its products. but for the entire industry, it's not a good look. you don't want wheels falling off or anything falling off of an aircraft. this is being investigated by
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regulators, by the faa and united was in the hot seat for this previous incident. there is a much closer -- being taken to make sure that the aircraft are in good shape. tom: that's really important context in terms of may be the plane lies more with united and the faa versus boeing on this particular issue. but on the boeing story, where do we stand in terms of their negotiations and particularly when it comes to defense contracts? >> we had a very busy 24 hours, they caught the agreement with the department of justice over the line, they pleaded guilty and now that really gives the company a little bit of clarity and investors a little bit of clarity into the latter part of the year. the first half of the year really forgettable for boeing. a lot of issues they need to clean up. the big question that remains for the companies now, who is going to do the cleanup job?
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who will take over for dave calhoun? there's no obvious name out there as to who it will be. that will probably be a big catalyst for the stock if they choose the right person. you've seen the shares go down substantially in the first half of the year. that's what people are focused on into the latter part of the year. tom: we had an update in terms of numbers from airbus. >> airbus shocked everyone last week with a pretty epic profit warning, they downgraded a lot of their targets and said, we are having real issues not only on demand but on supply side. yesterday they came out with monthly number on orders and deliveries and that was a fairly upbeat number, they delivered 67 planes in the month of june. the highest monthly tally so far, it seems like they are getting a handle on things. if they can maintain the trajectory, people would be
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somewhat relieved. we get the numbers from boeing later today. it would be interesting to get the read across. boeing numbers have been lower because the company has really cut back on the output. you could see something of an uptick there that investors will be happy to see that. tom: global aviation editor, thank you very much with the latest in terms of airbus and of course united and boeing. plenty more coming up. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ (♪♪) (♪♪) sandals rhythm and blues caribbean sale is now on. visit sandals.com or call 1-800-sandals.
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the first time. this is the context in terms of the number of record highs coming through from the s&p historically, going all the way back to the 1960's. at this point, if things continue this way, set for put the tent -- potentially the third largest number from the s&p ever. that's where we are in terms of the bar chart reflection. the only story ai, may be set for a 10% correction. we will see if it has legs but that is the context. the open trade is next. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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