>> good morning. i am tom mackenzie in london, and these are the stories that set your agenda. donald trump arrives in

milwaukee for the republican national congress after surviving and assassination attempt. the secret service protecting the former president, now facing intense scrutiny and investigations. president biden calls for national unity in a rare oval office address, urging americans to resolve their differences with ballots, not bullets. pres. biden: there is no place in america for this kind of violence, for any violence, ever, period, no exceptions. we can't allow this violence to be normalized. tom: the dollar strengthens, futures fall as the shooting increases bets on trump winning in november. we bring you the market reaction as the trump trade heats up.

tom: the assassination attempt on the former u.s. president has adjusted the moves across these markets, and that is primarily where the lens is. we check in on european futures after the gains of last week, more than 2% benchmark across the european stoxx 600 last week. european futures pointing to losses just shy of 0.6%. the ftse 100 in the u.k. looking at losses of around 17 points. s&p futures in the u.s. pointing to a brighter session, gains of 0.2 percent. nasdaq futures looking to add 64 point. let's flip the board and lacrosse asset because the trump trade reaction is being seen. the headlines on the u.s. dollar and treasuries as well. not trading yet because japan is closed, but when those come online, you can expect yields up, treasuries down. we will see how that adjusts

from the front end to the backend. a little pressure coming through. the bloomberg dollar is up by 5%. -- by 0.2%. this 62,000, up in the session. gold at 2411, currently flat. the dollar u.s. futures higher this morning while treasury futures are lower after the shooting reinforced those bets that trump's chances of winning have increased pulse. let's bring in mark cranfield for the market take on the momentous news out of the weekend. and of course, that assassination attempt, how markets are adjusting. talk us through the dollar moves we have seen around these trump trades. mark: we have certainly seen a little bit of strength in the u.s. dollar this morning. as you say, that is partly

because of the implication that the u.s. yields in the longer end will be a bit higher when the markets do start trading cash bonds shortly in london. but really, currency traders are more interested in what happens at the short end of the curve, the one year and two-year part of the curve. there, the yields have been coming down nicely recently. jerome powell is speaking at the beginning of the week. he has a tail wind behind him from a soft inflation report. bloomberg economics saying the core cpe will be 2.5%. it is all leading to the meeting from here. currency traders will be more interested in what short-term yields do, and they are mostly heading lower. any bit of strength you see is likely to be temporary. it will not last long. we saw some suspected intervention last week. they have the dollar-yen hitting lower. the bank of japan meeting still to come. they want to push their advantage before we get to that meeting at the end of the month as well. all in all, the conditions are

ripe for the dollar to be a little bit lower. it might be up a touch today, but it probably will not last too long because the tail end for lower yields and higher in japan is there. that is causing the moves. tom: there has been a lot of focus on moves across the yield curve and how they play into that, as you describe it, temporary strength for the greenback. what are you watching for in the moves around the trump trade and how markets adjust to the politics of the u.s.? kriti: prop -- mark: mark: mark: probably the steepening of the yield curve. that will have legs because it is supported by with the federal reserve is doing as well. if you think back to 2016, initially that steepening of the curve had a lot to do with the fact the republican party won all three parts of the u.s. parliament the presidency, the congress, and the senate.

the federal reserve is starting to lower interest rates, or they will be soon. the last time, they were raising interest rates. that trade could still work and it is coming from an inverted curve, which makes it easier for traders. you mentioned cryptocurrencies earlier. that one is key because trump has shown he has some support in the crypto base. musk loves crypto as well. it is very much in the public domain. you have people at home trading crypto all the time. they love it, so that probably goes as well. tom: the retail trade and the impact of musk coming out in support of president trump. 62692. mark cranfield on how the markets are adjusting to the assassination attempt on former president donald trump. thank you very much indeed. donald trump has arrived in milwaukee for the republican national convention after he was targeted in that assassination attempt during a rally on

saturday. the u.s. secret service now facing intense public scrutiny and several investigations. meanwhile, president biden has urged unity and condemned violence in a rare oval office address. pres. biden: in america, we resolve our differences at the ballot box. that is how we do it, at the ballot box, not with bullets. the power to change america should always rest in the hands of the people, not in the hands of would be assassins. tom: for more on this, i am joined by bloomberg's john harney. what is the latest as we look to the start of the rnc in milwaukee? john: former president trump has a wif -- has arrived in milwaukee in a time of great drama in the united states. this is the first assassination attempt since the one on ronald

reagan back in 1981. people are still reeling. at the same time, the republicans are prepared to wage this campaign, even if they seem to be trying to tone down the rhetoric a bit. they will present their program, focusi, -- the agenda focusing on inflation and immigration. but it seems to be, at least for now perhaps with a little less vehemence. tom: what do we know in terms of the probes, the investigation, the criticism by some of the secret service for the lapses, the gaps in security? what is happening on that front? how does that change the security around both candidates

going forward? john: certainly what happened raised a great many questions. how did the gunman get so close to so prominent a political figure, particularly after we have had some decades in the past, these other terrible acts of violence and threats of violence? there will be investigations on capitol hill. president biden has pledged an independent inquiry. there will be answers, of course. but right now, this was certainly fortunate it was not worse. it was tragic, of course. one of the spectators at the rally was killed. at least one other was injured.

this was a traumatic event. tom: john harney, thank you for the latest. let's get more analysis right now on this story and bring in marco vincenzo. thank you for joining us. is it your assessment, and you can push back on this, but is this a watershed moment in this election campaign? marco: yes. symbolically, pragmatically, in every sense of the word. for the past years, what i keep emphasizing is expect the unexpected. not the best screenwriters in hollywood would come up with what has happened and will continue to happen. there are risks on the road. political leadership is needed. president biden came out with rhetoric of reconciliation, as did president immediately afterwards. this is not just for the

politicians come up the citizens. -- this is not just for the politicians, but the citizens. it is a collective effort to try to calm down the rhetoric, the political polarization. it has taken years to develop and it will not disappear overnight. however, the alternative is to walk further into the abyss. american citizens need to reassess the situation and come to their senses to prevent this from becoming even worse. politically, trump does benefit from this. he will have momentum going into the convention. what he is trying to do is build that momentum over time. remember, it was the debate, also the supreme court decision, now the issue of the intended --

the attempted assassination. he needs to continue this momentum for the inevitability, which disincentivize your opposition. for biden, this provides a temporary reprieve for him politically. there have been strong calls within the party for him to step down to get somebody younger two months again -- to get somebody younger. the issue is the party is divided. i think for him right now, he needs to consolidate his position going into the democratic convention at the end of august. tom: to what extent, and you kind of nod to this, to what extent does this neuter some of the attack lines of biden, of the democrats, in terms of the threat? and they have characterized trump as a threat to democracy. is that neutered in the short term, or is that neutered long-term as you go up to

november? to what extent is this handicap the democratic party in a sustained way leading up to november? marco: that was one of the strongest biden's point on trump being a threat to democracy. on that point, at least for the foreseeable immediate future, he has to call down on that -- calmd own on th -- calm down on that. he even put a hold on his political ads. that is a reaction to the attempted assassination. the question is, will that be extended long-term? i think he will be more reactive if trump gets aggressive with his rhetoric and it doesn't tone down his own rhetoric, and i think the democrats will try to use that to adjust the volume accordingly. on that attack, that specific point, trump being a threat to democracy, that will be conditioned upon what his rhetoric is in the coming days and weeks and months ahead heading towards election day. tom: just to be clear, markets

are pricing in now a trump victory in november. and you would say that is not irrational. you would say that is where things are pointing right now. marco: if it were to be held at this very moment, yes. but between now and election day on november 5, anything is possible. expect the unexpected. this is a day by day, week by week, minute by minute, hour by our, specifically after that attempted assassination of president trump. things are in flux. it is a wild swinging pendulum. but if the momentum continues for trump as is, yes, he is in a better position. the polling as to his advantage. the national polling, and what is more important is his lead in the swing state polling. what they are trying to do is use this event to create sympathy from many independent voters, because ultimately there will be a few thousand independent voters in key

swing states that will determine the selection. tom: marco vicenzino, thank you very much indeed. really smart analysis. on the electoral implications of this attempted assassination. coming up, china surprises with a miss on second-quarter gdp growth just ahead of its biggest policy meeting in six years. we bring you the details next. , and the policy applications in china on a trump victory are important as well. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: let's check in on how asian markets are shaping up so far this monday. avril hong is in singapore. avril: it is mixed, and there

are two parts we are watching, the trump trade as well as reaction to the big news from china data today. we are seeing investors wrapping up their bets to see a trump presidency the attack of the weekend. the offshore yuan is weaker, though not by much. we know how the currency is sensitive to trump's prospects. we are seeing may the declines being capped by the pboc, sending a signal that it does not want volatility. but as i say, it is about the china data. the chinese consumer, the tech stocks have a big drag on the hang seng. let's recap the data out of asia's largest economy. a big miss on the q2 gdp growth. slowest pace in five quarters. the pain point is in the retail sales number, and we saw a big declines in the automobiles as

well as cosmetics consumer sector, showing weak demand and how they need to come through on confidence boosting measures. we have been told time and again, manager expectations, because that is not the platform. it is about laying out longer-term priorities. tom: avril hong in singapore, thank you. we will stay on that story in terms of the economic data coming out of china and the plenum being set up for this week. really important, as potential policy is coming out of beijing. china's latest data showing gdp growth weakening more than expected, to 4.7% in the second quarter, falling short of expectations. let's bring in stephen engle in hong kong. what stood out to you about this data set? stephen: obviously those consumption numbers, the retail sales. 2%. we were expecting 3.4%. we already knew confidence was weak at the household level and

consumption is pretty constrained right now. this really emphasized and underlined that point. again, it points to the plenum that is starting today, the third plenum of the 20th party central committee, which generally looks at forward economic planning. no one is really expecting big bang policy, but now we are wondering what is needed to get these numbers up. right now, they are under pace for that around 5% gdp growth for the year at four point 7%. we were expecting 5.1%. property is the big drag, and that ties back to household confidence as well, where upwards of 70% of household wealth is tied to property. and we know now, even with new home prices today dropping for a 13th consecutive month in june. where they will find the new drivers of growth is where we

will pipit in this confluence of situations with a weak economy, and now, as we have been talking about, the prospects perhaps of another trump presidency. i am sure as they are meeting in western beijing right now behind closed doors, the nearly 400 central committee members with xi jinping at the top chairing this meeting of the third plenum over the next four days, i am sure they are buckling up right now and trying to recalibrate their algorithms about what it is going to take to find growth when domestic confidence is weak, property sector cannot get out of it slump, and the export and geopolitical situation could be upended again with trump coming in pledging 60% across-the-board tariffs on all chinese exports or imports to the united states. a lot of question marks. we will not get much news flow out of the plenum. it is closed door. we will get a communique at the

end of thursday, then we have to look forward to the fifth plenum possibly in october or november, where we get potentially the next five-year plan. tom: as you say, added risk for china's policy makers in an already challenged environment domestically. stephen engle, thank you for the breakdown, coming through for us from hong kong. president biden urges unity, warning the nation is headed down a dangerous path after the assassination attempt on donald trump. we are live in new york next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to "daybreak."

the focus on donald trump, who arrived in milwaukee for the republican national commensurate in, telling the washington examiner he has rewritten his speech to focus on unity. it comes after president biden condemned political violence after the assassination attempt on trump in pennsylvania on saturday. i am very pleased to say joining us is matt winkler, bloomberg's editor-in-chief emeritus with the reaction from new york. drawing all your experience and contacts across the business, the political elites of the u.s., to what extent is this a watershed moment in this election? what is your assessment of what we have been seeing, the dramatic moments we have seen out of pennsylvania in the last couple of days? matt: it is good to be with you. if you look at history as a guide, and that is a good place to start, there was an assassination attempt on fdr in 1933, there was an assassination attempt on president truman.

more recently, there were two assassination attempts within a month on president ford. and then, there was an assassination attempt on ronald reagan. none of those actually changed, if you will, the outcome in any significant way. so, that is the historical record. and it probably gives us some, if you well, comfort that this event is not what people think it is, just because if you look at history there have been several -- more than several of these events, and they have been shocking of course, but they haven't changed the trajectory. what is perhaps different this time is that trump is running on an authoritarian platform, if you like. and he has been encouraging violence. we know that.

so, america at this moment might be the least stable world power going into the election. but biden, to his credit, did give a speech that was appropriate. there was nothing in it that was offensive to anyone. it was all the right response. i think it is premature to draw the conclusion that this is a watershed event, because i don't think that is clear from any indication in history. tom: that is a really important nuance around what we are seeing. but it is a democracy facing a clear challenge. you have been looking at the democracy with a lens that has also faced its own challenges, but maybe is in more robust health and some might think, and that is south africa. talk about the linkages between

the capitalistic function and democratic changes, the political adjustments we have seen in south africa, possibly if there are any lessons to be learned. matt: i am so glad you asked that question only because being bloomberg we leave it to markets to give us the best signal in all the noise. if you look at the bond market right now, it is proving that democracy is a capitalist tool, at least in the case of south africa. nowhere is that sure than south africa where rand denominated securities are number one in the world. they are giving investors a total return of 17%. that is about as good a new story as you had have. tom: matt the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. "soulmates." soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower!

i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title.

tom: good morning. i am tom mackenzie in london. these are the stories that set your agenda. donald trump arrives in milwaukee for the republican national congress after surviving an assassination attempt. the secret service protecting the former president, now facing intense scrutiny and investigations. amirabdollahian president biden calls for national unity in a rare -- president biden calls for national unity in a rare address, urging americans to resolve their differences with ballots, not bullets. pres. biden: there is no place in america for this kind of violence ever, period, no exceptions. we can't allow this violence to be normalized. tom: the dollar strengthens. treasury futures fall as the shooting increases bets on trump winning in november. we bring you the market reaction as the trump trade heats up.

let's check in on those markets. the adjustments we are seeing on the back of that assassination attempt and what it means for the election in the u.s. in november. yes, the odds have increased, according to many at least, of a trump victory in november. there remain significant caveats to that. but the broad top line assessment seems to say that he will benefit from this. we will get more from the speech at the rnc that takes place in th milwaukee. -- in milwaukee. european stocks posted decent gains of a little over 2% last week, looking to losses currently, down 0.6%. s&p futures now, it is a different story. you're looking at gains, pointing higher by 0.2%. nasdaq futures looking to add 73 points. let's flip the board and look at

the treasury markets. the moves around the dollar and crypto as well because bitcoin has become something of a litmus test of the prospects of former president trump in those november elections. bitcoin at 62,830 on expectations that should he win in november, he would be more supportive of that ecosystem. the bloomberg dollar index bid to the detriment of some of its currency, currently up 0.1%. we expect a move higher in yields when trading resumes. gold off just 0.1%. biden condemning violence in a rare address following saturday's assassination attempt at a rally in pennsylvania. the u.s. secret service now facing harsh public scrutiny and investigations after the shooting. republican senator john ron johnson calling for transparency

on the security failure. >> when it comes to our oversight rule, we will let the fbi, the department of justice, the secret service do their investigation. we should be demanding full transparency. my staff has already written a letter, preservation letters. you have to be completely transparent, and they haven't been. tom: ron johnson speaking. let's bring in bill for the latest. what is the state of play in the two campaigns following this shooting? bill: what we have seen so far is certainly a coalescing of momentum behind former president trump. the attempted assassination and imagery that came out of this rallied its core supporters online and through fundraising. they are backing him more strongly than ever. this all happened at a time when

the democratic party was in real disarray about whether president joe biden should continue to be there no money. that was the dom -- should be there nominee. that was the dominant story. the democratic problems are still there, and it is something they will have to continue to address. the momentum currently is behind former president trump. that said, we are a little less than four month away from election day. as we have seen in this campaign from the debacle over the biden debate and the indictment of president trump, there have been a lot of key issues that have happened. whether any of those are front and center behind voters in november remains to be seen. tom: we do have the start of the republik and national convention kicking off in milwaukee, and both -- republican national convention

kicking off in milwaukee. on the back of this, if that holds, how will that transpire in the next few days? bill: i think the u.s. has been very polarized for a number of years. i would not expect these calls for unity to last too long. we already know democrats will resume campaigning that they put on pause by tuesday. in terms of the rnc event that kicks off monday through wednesday, the big things will be now president trump's public appearances he makes, any news about his condition and the investigation into the shooting. he has a major decision to make and it is not clear if he is settled on it yet, and that will be who his vice presidential running mate is. that is something that has to take place by wednesday when the various states to their rollcall

votes. so, former president trump has just a little over 48 hours to make that decision, and that will be a key moment for him in his campaign moving forward. tom: the vp pick for trump in focus. bill faries, thank you for the latest. looking ahead to the start of the republican national congress. world leaders were quick to condemned political violence and wish donald trump a speedy recovery after the shooting of the former president over the weekend. let's get more on the international response to that attempted assassination from bloomberg's oliver crook. what has the reaction been from leaders across the globe? oliver: this is the sort of thing that would send shock across the world. the stability of the u.s. is paramount for every single country on the planet and the leaders, as you say, across the planet quick to say they send their condolences to trump and sympathies. but the main messages across all is violence is not the solution to political problems.

you heard that from a number of leaders, including olaf scholz, saying the attack is despicable. such acts of violence threaten democracy. this was not the universal message across all of the different countries. we take our focus on certain ones in particular. china gave a sober message of sympathy, saying they are very concerned about the incident. we also go to the kremlin, where we heard from the spokesman that we do not believe the attempt to eliminate and assassinate trump was organized by the current authorities, i.e. president biden. but the atmosphere around candidate trump provoked what america is confronting today. that is the message from russia. take it with a grain of salt. however, it is a sentiment echoed from other leaders across the world. you have javier millet in argentina saying the desperation of the left is not surprising, that it is willing to not lose at the polls by resorting to terrorism. you have nigel farag saying the

narrative put around trumpe by the liberals let oppose him is so unpleasant that he thinks it almost encourages this kind of behavior. you have some comments, but from some of these leaders, it is a question of stability in the united states and how it will bear on who is sitting across from them in january. tom: as you say, javier millet and the russians stirring up some of these conspiracy theories. we should look at those in that particular light. the political violence we have seen in the u.s., and it has been quite pronounced. not just a concern on u.s. soil. this is a concern facing other nations across the world. >> absolutely, and in stable democracies. you have the trump attempt, the highest profile and one of the more consequential things we

have seen in a while, but we have seen the prime minister of slovakia was shot. you have a candidate in korea stabbed this year. these are major concerns. in germany, there has been nothing quite as high-profile. in the lead up to the european elections, there were a number of acts of political violence, attacks on politicians, including the former mayor of berlin. you saw these swell up. according to the german government, you see these acts go up to 60,000 offenses last year. in 2022, it set a record for politically motivated acts of violence. in 2023, it set another record. this is all very concerning because of those numbers have almost doubled in the last 10 years. this comes into relief for us in germany because we have state elections in three regions across germany, and the afd, the far-right group where there is a lot of concern around this political violence, are expected to sweep all three regions.in germany, it is very much front

and center. tom: oliver crook in berlin with the international perspective on this attempted assassination of former president donald trump. important context coming through. goldman sachs is in the spotlight today was second-quarter results out. bank of america will be sending reports tomorrow. let's get more from charlie wells and break down the results we have seen from big lenders already. let's start with where the focus will be when it comes to goldman sachs. charlie: all eyes are going to be on investment banking revenue. the question is, we know that is probably going to be very strong, what we saw in previous reports from citigroup, from j.p. morgan, that investment banking revenue beat expectations significantly. but i think gold men, do they have momentum going into the second half? we have been talking about how the deal pipeline is stronger, but does management give better guidance than we have expected?

tom: is this going to be one and done? or is the momentum there for more? how is it going to be stacking up for you and the team as you try to get a grip of the story? charlie: we are in the eye of the stories. we are about halfway through. we've got bank of america coming on tuesday. management has said net income could be in a trough for the second quarter, so let's see how that plays out, if that hurts their share price. for morgan stanley, speaking of share prices, they have been underperforming relative to a lot of their peers. let's see if investment banking gives them a boost. also if markets, which have been on a tear, if that helps their trading and asset and wealth management divisions. tom: wells fargo sinking 6% after missing net income last week. charlie wells with a preview of goldman sachs later today, and the rest of the banking earnings coming out this week.

the financial times says goldman sachs is appealing as result in the federal reserve's latest stress test, which would require the bank to hold more capital. according to their sources, the move comes after ceo david solomon said the result did not reflect goldman's efforts to make its business more stable. bloomberg has learned that alphabet is in talks to acquire cybersecurity start up wiz. the transaction could total $23 billion, making it the company's largest acquisition to date. last week, alphabet shelved efforts to acquire company management firm hub spot. how has the attempted assassination of trump altered the political landscape ahead of the u.s. election in november? we will speak with david doug, international politics professor at birmingham university. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: while we disagree, we are not enemies. we are neighbors, we are friends, coworkers, citizens. most importantly, we are fellow americans. we must stand together. yesterday's shooting at donald trump's rally in pennsylvania calls on all of us to take a step back, take stock of where we are, how we go forward from here. tom: u.s. president joe biden of course speaking from the oval office after the attempted assassination of donald trump on saturday. joining me for more context is david doug, international politics professor at birmingham university -- david dunn, international politics professor at birmingham university. how do you characterize this moment in u.s. politics?

david: i think this will be an iconic moment. those images will go down with the ages. the attempted assassination has the potential to be an inflection point in this election campaign. it will certainly be a huge boost for the popularity of donald trump. that defined vigorous response that he had when he left the stage is one which will resonate with his supporters, who will have a greater admiration for him all the more. when ronald reagan was shot, his poll numbers went up 70% approval as a consequence of the sympathy. indeed, the way he dealt with it . reagan joked to his wife that he forgot to duck. he joked with the surgeons, i hope you are republicans. that got him a huge boost. we can expect a similar thing for slightly different reasons for donald trump. his popularity will go up

enormously. you can expect a huge boost in fundraising on the back of this. you can expect that image on every t-shirt and mug on sale. whether it lasts is the bigger question. partly that will go down to how the response is managed. so far, trump has been magnanimous. others in the republican party have not and made this a partisan issue by attacking the democrats for the way in which they have characterized trump and this campaign, blaming them. tom: on that point, cool heads have so far prevailed from trump, from biden. is it your expectation, given recent history, that those cool heads to prevail? or are you concerned the rhetoric returns to the divisiveness we have seen in the past, and frankly dangerous

rhetoric we have seen? david: i think in an age of twitter where everyone has and feels the obligation to respond, what we have is a whole range of very angry responses to this. since donald trump entered this campaign in 2016, there have been underlying threats of violence. and there are several reasons for that. he is someone who has not prioritized -- in a democracy, you prioritize the process and not the result. donald trump has approached this in a different way. if you refuse to accept the result of the election, he said this back in 2016 even before the result was known. and what that means is, when you don't respect the process, you don't condemn violence the way donald trump has not condemned violence, what that means is it creates the partisan environment for that. he has referred to the jailed

rioters from january 6 as hostages, as heroes, as incredibly patriotic. in that environment, you create an environment for violence. tom: to what extent does the sideline the debate around joe biden's suitability, the concerns about his age? or does that resurface? david: i think it delays it. the democrats would not want to be seen to be acting against biden in the same timeframe as the reaction to the assassination attempt, because they wouldn't want those events to be linked, democrats to be panicking. but it does not make the issue go away because the gap in the polls will increase, the issue of biden's competence will continue. whether the democrats are now cowed into stepping back from that were if they see that as an imperative, it is difficult to

say. my inclination is this issue will come back because biden has no path back to a plan for victory. therefore, the democrats will count the calculation that they are better off with a different candidate going against trump in november rather than the one who is in many ways irreparably damaged. tom: professor, what else are you going to be watching for in the days ahead, in terms of how the polling numbers could adjust, as we focus on what is a handful of swing states and a few thousand voters? david: what has been interesting up until now, those six key swing states have been regarded as pivotal. but what is interesting and one of the reasons why the democrats are concerned about the candidacy of joe biden is the numbers are slipping across the board. states that have been seen for two or three years -- there is a

real danger the democrats could lose not just in those six swing states, but across the board. what that means is they would lose the house in the senate too. for that reason, the issue of biden's future will come back into play. there is a danger for the democrats. he has already controlled the supreme court. tom: really appreciate your analysis and your take on what is happened. david dunn, professor at birmingham university, thank you. there's plenty more coming up. we stay focused on the market reaction to this assassination attempt and how this unfolds going forward. this is bloomberg. ♪

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tom: welcome back. the attempted assassination of former president donald trump has had an impact and is likely to have an impact in terms of the voter reaction. that is why you are also seeing a reaction in the markets as they adjust around this and start to take further bets on a trump presidency in november. there is still four months to go, but in terms of the reaction , in terms of the sentiment, here is an interesting gauge. pull this up on your bloomberg terminal. look at this crocodile mouth shape in terms of the support and market expectations around a trump presidency. joe biden is facing his own challenges given that debate about his age and suitability in light of that question. we keep continuing to monitor this.

this leaks into the market moves we are seeing. we can flip the screen and take a look at this chart which shows the moves around these markets. the positioning in terms of the u.s. treasury story, but also in terms of the u.s. dollar. treasuries are not yet trading. futures are suggesting a selloff and a steepening with the buying of the front end, selling of the long end. if that vote comes through in his favor in november, still a big if of course, it would be inflationary, so you would expect that the long end of the treasury curve some selling and yields up. in terms of the dollar move, we have seen that pronounced in the session so far today. we are seeing pressure coming through on euro and yen and other pairs around the bloomberg dollar index. that is if we get to the election results in favor of trump in november. interesting to see crypto as well and the bid for bitcoin on

the back of the events on saturday. switching focus, and quite a pivot, but it was a huge we can for sports as well, overshadowed by the events of the u.s. it was quite a sunday for spain. worth mentioning from a sporting context. the football team defeating england 2-1 to capture a record fourth championship. england's men's team once again denied its first major trophy since the 1966 world cup. coming up, jerome powell speaking to david rubenstein at the economic club in washington. that is at 5:30 p.m. london time. you will not want to miss that. don't miss opening trade. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. "soulmates." soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title.

>> good morning from london. item anna edwards a