♪ announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern. jonathan: live from new york city this morning for our audience worldwide, good morning. we begin with our top story come and attack on the former president donald trump. trump: if you want to release he something that is sad, take a look what happened -- jonathan: america coming within an inch of a very different conversation this morning. the following picture will likely be the defining image of the selection.

the president, his fist raised, blood pouring down his right cheek after a bullet pierced of the upper part of his right year. trump now heading to a very different rnc telling the washington examiner this is a chance to bring the whole country, even the whole world together. the speech would be a lot different than it would have been just two days ago. president biden also pushing for unity. >> we may disagree but we are not enemies. we are neighbors. we are friends, coworkers, citizens. and most importantly we are fellow americans. we must stand together. the power to change america should always rest in the hands of the people, not in the hands of a would-be assassin. jonathan: coverage starts right now with anne-marie. what a weekend. ann marie: it is inflection point in american history but also inflection points for both of these campaigns. donald trump sitting down with a washington examiner after that assassination attempt say

honestly, the speech is going to have to change now. he's going to want to bring and talk about unity and how he could potentially unite the country after this attack. also remember as soon as today or at some point this week we will get his vp pick. what happened over the weekend in pennsylvania changed how he thinks about this potential vice presidential candidate and then for the biden campaign it's going to be about how they talk about the former president. does that tone have to change? we already see president biden pulling back on some campaign ads. we also see him deciding to halt a stop he was supposed to have today. he's still going to be sitting down with lester holt and taking off this evening for nevada, but how does he communicate his campaign? we heard from them yesterday saying when it comes to democracy we should be debating things at the ballot box not with bullets. annmarie: jonathan: how something like this could happen will be the focus of this particular program throughout this morning with you i'd like

to talk about how these campaigns are going to change both for the sitting president and the former president. just what kind of changes are you expecting? >> what is important to remember here is that political violence was central to the reason that president biden ran in 2020. you will remember he talks quite often about how the violence of the rally in charlottesville in 2017 prompted him to run for office again. it was a similar message last night that we were hearing, a message of unity, a message of promoting and saving democracy and we should expect that to continue throughout the week with a brighter spotlight on it given what happened over the weekend. with president trump we are expecting a message as he has previewed of unity. that contrasts heavily to the image you were showing earlier of him with his fist pumped in the air, you see him in the video's mouth the word fight. it remains to be seen with the actual message blend up being

that so far what he is saying is that he will project unity at the convention in milwaukee this week. annmarie: what do you think this means for his vp pick? >> it's a lot more of a have a choice. we saw bad things can happen. i would think that he is thinking about that, thinking about who could take his place should there be a need to, but we still don't know who he's going to pick and usually we would know much earlier in the summer in a presidential campaign. it's quite unusual to go into a convention and not know that person. jonathan: courtney, thank you. let's continue this conversation with terry haynes of pangea policy. a very difficult circumstance. i want to reflect on saturday evening after this event took place. there was a phone call between the former president trump and nikki haley. nikki haley is going to appear at the convention now this week and i want to understand from your perspective, can the former president unite his party?

>> well, shuri can -- sure he can. the basic thing that donald trump sees is that he's got a split republican party the early primaries, largely because of the nikki haley vote which has been stanch of an independents are not for him. how you unify that hasn't changed. before saturday or right now. you unify the party by getting the chief rival in under the tent and you use that chief rival who happens to have a great appeal to independents to move the ticket forward. i've said all along that the easy pick for trump, the way to solve that problem is to take haley herself, and he has already said she is going to play a part in his administration so it is only a matter of question whether she is the vp or another prominent person within the party or within a future cabinet, but it

is probably going to be a unifier. annmarie: following the assassination attempt do you think the former president is really reconsidering he chooses and looks outside the three names we always talk about and potentially to an establishment-like figure if not nikki haley, something like governor youngkin? >> trump has been very smart by vote teasing this thing within an inch of its life and to not have made a decision before now, firstly. second, i think the three names that get thrown around a lot is like the kids game of telephone where everybody else talks about the three names and pretty soon it is the three names. i've never seen anything from the trump campaign indicate that it is only those three names. and thirdly, if he doesn't pick nikki haley, and she is still a prominent part of the administration, he needs outreach with some independent appeal and you and i are in agreement on governor youngkin of virginia being a prominent part of that.

i think he would be a very good candidate. annmarie: how does this change the trajectory of the former president's campaign? >> i will tell you that i think there is a huge variance between prediction markets and the political reality. over the last month with all of biden's trivial before saturday night happened, you saw this race going a two-way national beauty contest hold from trump plus one to trump plus three and that is with margins of error of over three, by and large. this is still a very sort of race and anybody that thinks that based on the events of the last month who think that now it is some sort of run away or even that it is going to be a landslide of all republican in the house and senate i think have another thing coming. markets can't resist the idea, didn't in 2016, didn't in 2020, aren't now resisting the idea

that there is going to be some sort of seismic swing and yet over the past few cycles it really hasn't happened. jonathan: if we take a look at things right now, we are starting to see a steeper curve again. this has been the so-called trump trade right now, the political into the race -- federation bacon for the bond market. terry, i have equaled interest today in not just how the former president's campaign is going to change, but how president biden's campaign needs to change. so far it has been quite one-dimensional. it has been about describing the former president as an existential risk to democracy and i just wonder after the events of saturday evening where the president can do that anymore. >> i think they are going to have to ramp it back. yes, hi. i think they are going to ram it back for a while. but they will look for an

opportunity. political instinct will be to try to get a situation going where they feel like it is ok to go back up short of the line and i think they probably do that. but they will ramp down certainly the week of the republican convention. annmarie: how do they go after attacking trump following this? >> i think they probably don't. directly. as directly as they do using surrogates. that is what this whole project 2025 thing is about, which is silly on its face, the idea that heritage foundation is going to run the country magically. and the idea that surrogates, the biden campaign in 2022 is very good at pointing out taking trump surrogates. this means all the terrible things that flow from that proposal are going to happen regardless of whether they have any chance of passing or not.

they do that and they you that to deflect a little bit, but they still ramp on the social issues and everything else. democrats are building their campaign as if it is an institutional presidency, so that regardless of the presidential candidate actually is, they are for the same things and therefore you should vote for those same things. annmarie: does this put an end to those calls provided to step aside? >> i think they are less likely. it is pretty clear that it hasn't been sweeping the party. it varied in the headlines over the weekend that there were a couple of congressional groups with whom biden spoke on saturday. coming out of it saying that they were still for a biden party as a party is still at loggerheads, but what i would look at is that biden can still get squeezed before and by the convention the very simple reason that the convention has to approve its rules before it started to work, and if it wants

to unbind its delegates i mid-august it could certainly do that. jonathan: speaking of things buried in the news flow, those two big endorsement that is, elon musk and bill ackerman. we had a story going to the weekend that according to people familiar with the discretions -- the discussions, to billionaires were not previously endorsing donald trump met with former president to discuss donating to his white house bid. for a long time all the way back in 2016 support of donald trump for a lot of people was something they had to whisper, something they were almost embarrassed of. i wonder after saturday night whether it is something you no longer need to whisper. >> it depends on who it is. if it is all the people you just mentioned, they don't ever have to whisper. in a lot of places in the country you still probably do have to whisper. but what i think you can take out of those endorsements are really two things. one is that you got those folks convinced that trump is going to

run a more conventional and market friendly president from an economic perspective, and secondly i think you can assume that what people like mosk and ackerman come away from is a much more free speech-inclined presidency. those people are very concerned that the biden presidency is an anti-free-speech presidency. so what you're going to get i think over the next few months is a legitimization of trump as an economic candidate. vital point though, the caveat here is that there is not a trump trade or a biden trade. you have to put congress in the mix. the base case today is still that there is a mixed congress. that is going to act as a brake upon the ambitions of either president. --break. jonathan: sometimes markets don't like new ones. they want something pretty straightforward. this morning, small caps

outperforming, continuation of what took place last week. the so-called bare steepener. essentially means a steeper yield curve driven by the selloff at along and. annmarie: is a lot of momentum that now is for sure in the trump camp that he is going to win this election. carrie haynes does not buy that just yet, but greg says a landslide lose in their opinion that this is now trump's election and basically it is going to be his to lose. biden has a lot more work to do. fascinating you brought elon musk. before he even came out to endorse the former president publicly on twitter, we had a story that actually he's also putting money into super political action committee that is helping support donald trump. jonathan: ponce down, yields up this morning. higher on the s&p 500 by 0.4%. update on stories elsewhere this morning with your bloomberg brief. yahaira: china's economy showing no signs of picking up just yet. gdp coming in at 4.7% in the

second quarter. that is the worst pace in five quarters and below what economists expected. retail sales rose at the slowest pace since 2022. the new data showing government efforts to juice confidence have done little to reinvigorate the chinese consumer. apple sales in india surging to a record of nearly $8 billion over the 12 month period ending back in march. the iphone accounted for more than half of the sales according to resource. apple has turned its focus to india as a way to diversify its revenue and manufacturing sources beyond china which as i mentioned, faces a faltering economy plus risks have risen amid its trade tensions with the u.s. and spain winning the european football championship beating england in the final in berlin. both teams were level late in the game but spain found a decisive goal with just under five minutes left to care record fourth wind, and the first since

2008. it spells more heartbreak for england fans fa finish runner-up the second straight tournament. england still without a major title since winning the 1966 world cup. jonathan: i'm sure that is a story you don't really want to hear me talk about. back to rhetoric. >> got to turn the temperature down in this country. we need leaders all parties on both sides to call that out. jonathan: live from new york city this morning, good morning. say aloha to olukai golf. waterproof leather. breathable fabrics. spikeless traction. the most comfortable golf shoe in the game. grab your pair today at olukai.com.

at t. rowe price we let curiosity light the way. asking smart questions about opportunities like clean water. and what promising new treatment advances can make a new tomorrow possible. better questions. better outcomes. jonathan: live from new york city this morning, good morning and welcome to the program. firmer by 0.4%. under surveillance this morning, filing back to rhetoric. >> we've got to turn the rhetoric down, we've got to turn

the temperature down in this country. we need leaders from both sides to call that out and make sure that happens so we can go forward and maintain our free society that we all are blessed to have. jonathan: so here's the latest. donald trump touching down in milwaukee ahead of the republican national convention, just two days after an assassination attempt at a rally in pennsylvania. trump looking to unify the republican party telling the washington examiner he is rewriting his speech and also calling on former presidential candidate nikki haley to attend the event. joining us now is jim gilmore the former public governor of virginia. governor, wonderful to have you with us this morning. we came within an inch of you and i having a very different conversation this morning. governor, how do you expect the rnc to shift this week? >> first of all, of primaries have already nominated overwhelmingly president trump to be the republican nominee. the convention is really about

sending a message to the people of the united states about what kind of party we are and what kind of people we are going to be and what kind of platform we are going to offer. that's very different from the rhetoric that we've been seeing over the last few weeks. president biden went on camera and said last night well, we need to stop all of this talk. what president biden doesn't have the credibility to say that. it is he who has been ramping up this extreme language. president biden has been doing that. i made a statement last week that it didn't look good for a chief executive, a president of the united states to be talking like this but i really underestimated it. what he was really doing was inviting the assassination and inviting i think other assassins who may be out there right now when he uses language like president trump is a menace at the republican party is a threat to democracy. these things are nonsense, but they are dangerous, they are dangerous rhetoric and most importantly, it's dangerous because it is coming from the president of the united states

who has imminent credibility when he says these things. he should stop right now saying these kinds of things. annmarie: governor, what does the former president need to say to make sure that he has a message of unity and overcoming the toxic political environment that this nation faces? >> i believe he's going to talk about the issues that they'd the country, the unity that the republican party feels about the direction of the nation. that you will find republicans up and down the line and people particularly represented within that convention south speaking about the issues of inflation, which president biden absolutely caused by his big, giant programs at the beginning of his administration when he threw all his money out there into the community. when he did that he increased inflation, no doubt about that. the border has turned out to be a principal issue the democrats

have just simply not addressed. i remind you that only when president trump began his campaign years ago did the issue even begin to be discussed, so i think there will be that. and then crime in the streets. i remind you that nt and organizations like that were running rampant in the streets. when you add this kind of strident, hysterical language coming from the chief executive of the united states, you create a toxic atmosphere. annmarie: what about his vice presidential pick? is there a name that exudes more unity than others? >> i don't think i want to try in my place to suggest a name. names have been widely discussed. what i would prefer to do is remind your viewers of the absolute important of the pick at this particular time. look at where we are here. president biden made a pick, he said explicitly that he was going to make that pick based upon race and gender, the new

program of the democratic party, race and gender and he said i'm going to name a black woman no matter what i have no objection to a black woman being president or vice president to name the person based on that rips away the previous plan which is to name somebody who could be president of the united states. i think right now there is a consensus that vice president harris probably should not play that role, so there we are. so what this teaches us now is that we are really at this point needing to pick somebody who if there is an assassination or a tragedy like that, the person could actually be the president of the united states. i think president trump has several names that he could pick from and i hope that he is wise in his choice. jonathan: is it fair to say that senator j.d. vance would not be one based on that governor? >> i think that senator vance is a new senator from ohio, he's primarily known for writing his book which i have read carefully, and a united states senator is always in the national spotlight.

there are a lot of other people who might depict as well, of course. jonathan: one name that of course we are very familiar with is nikki haley. there was a phone call that took place saturday night and i wonder how important that phone call was to someone like yourself who would like to see this already unite kind the candidate. a phone call between the former president donald trump and nikki haley herself. nikki haley will now reportedly appear at the convention this week. how important was that development for you, sir? >> at the conclusion of the south carolina primary, i organized a group of about a dozen prominent conservatives and sent a letter to nikki haley. i'm not sure she ever even saw it reset this is the time to get out and to endorse president trump and to create unity. she did not do that. instead, she stayed in, she became basically the repository of anti-trump votes and as a result of that, she stayed in i think too long. however, president trump is

exuding some leadership here in an effort to unite their republican party by asking her to speak. and i think that is a gesture of unity that is going to be the theme of the republican national convention. annmarie: governor, she also is saying that she wants her delegates, she is releasing them, she wants them to vote for the former president. she represents half of your party, does she not? isn't she still a voice that many in your party look to? so shouldn't she be welcomed in instead of forced out? >> i think she should be welcomed in. i think that everybody that ran against president trump should be welcomed in. i think you look to the primary numbers and during the last several primaries where governor haley was in the race, you can see the numbers of votes she was getting. i'm not sure that anybody at this point represents half of our party. i think that president trump

represent virtually all of our party and that is what the primary results were showing. jonathan: appreciate your time this morning, thanks for being with us. the former virginia governor. that final point, a discussion about the potential vp pick. we are all familiar with the candidates now. i mentioned senator j.d. vance. there's also senator rubio, governor burgum. the list goes on and on. a decision is going to be made at some point very soon. annmarie: it could be made and announced as soon as today. it needs to be announced before donald trump gets on that stage thursday evening and talked about who is on the ticket and what their plans are if they were going to get another chance at occupying the white house. it is any question now whether or not the attempted assassination changed his inking. this eco-for more establishment figure? what'd did former speaker kevin mccarthy say over the weekend on bill mark? someone like governor youngkin would be lights out at this moment. jonathan: we are all familiar

with the names, select see who the pick is. coming up next, there are so many dimensions to be attacked on saturday evening including this one right here. we will catch up with the former chief of the fbi firearms training unit on the failure of the united states secret service. that conversation is just around the corner. we are positive on the s&p 500, dylan on last week's gains. equity futures up by 0.4%. small caps outperforming, the russell doing its thing like it has been, and bond market yields a little bit higher, up by three basis points. up by five on 30's. from new york, this is bloomberg.

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♪ jonathan: welcome to the program, your scores look like this on the equity market. the s&p 500 firmer. to weeks of gains on the s&p up by just 0.4% this morning. once again come the outperformance this morning and last week on the russell. the small caps up by 0.9%. how much of this is just a continuation of last week? how much is it may be about just raising the odds of a president donald trump round two in november? actually in the bond market over the last couple of weeks and has been a tug-of-war between softer

than expected economic data, inflation as well. on the other side, political considerations. i'm talking about the prospect of a donald trump administration being somewhat more lucian airee. we faced in some of that this morning. jp morgan suggesting we might be. up by three basis points, we are up by five. let's turn the page to get the foreign exchange. not much price action here whatsoever. euro-dollar, just a programming note for you, chairman powell in little bit later sitting down with rubenstein, a conversation you do not want to miss to mr. financial markets worldwide. under surveillance this morning, president biden using a rare oval office address to call for unity following the assassination attempt on former president donald trump. biden postponing a campaign speech in texas and his campaign is causing tv ads, for the

president is still planning to sit down for a 9:00 p.m. interview on nbc a little bit later this morning. we've been talking about high-stakes year -- appearances for the sitting president, high-stakes interviews. have we put that story to bed or is this a still the deal? annmarie: it feels like it is positive the weekend. he rarely gives oval office addresses which is why last night was very high-stakes for this president given the fact that he was directly speaking to the nation, but not just the former president, but the individual he is campaigning against. you seen the campaign already take moves, pulling down tv ads, not going to texas. they will be heading over to nevada, but they are going to have to change the tone of how they are's eating about the president. they cannot attack them directly. i think it's going to become a lot more policy focused. jonathan: not just the tone, the substance as well. for quite a while this has been

a one-dimensional campaign from president joe biden. at one dimension we are all familiar with, to frame the former president as an existential risk, a threat to democracy. repeatedly referred again and again. the nato news conference just last week or so. i wonder whether that for the handicapped ability to carry on delivering that message for the next four months. >> i think we are going to see a massive shift policy for reproductive rights, these bread-and-butter issues that they really feel like they can hone in on independents to come out and vote for the current president, joe biden. but that is why they had to pull down tv ads and that is why there is a lot of discussion from his campaign and his white house about how they are going to communicate this. lester holt, his first question was going to be are you too old to do this job? it is a completely different conversation now. jonathan: that might be the third or fourth question in this conversation with that later. the democratic party has been

divided. some reports the campaign is struggling to attract donors. we could know based on the events over the last weekend that maybe the republican campaign is not having such difficulties because alien heirs elon musk and bill ackerman are now throwing their weight behind trump, announcing their endorsements after saturday's events muska saying the last time america had a candidate this top was theodore roosevelt. you just wonder if these announcements open the door for others to follow. >> potentially, and we do know that ken griffin, and individual that have criticized the former president before elon musk came out on twitter and study of throwing his support behind former president donald trump, we reported that he was donating to a super pac tied to the former president. we don't know the amount. but july 15 we will get those disclosures so we could see how much money as individual is putting behind the former president and to your point right now, trump is outpacing biden when it comes to those campaign donations. what happened over the weekend, if that going to be the floodgates for more of wall street to pile in?

jonathan: this was a story that slipped beneath the radar, but it is an important one. the most important question i heard over the weekend, how did this happen? the u.s. secret service facing intense scrutiny now. from allies criticizing the agency over its protection of the former wicked their national security concerns of the forefront for the start of the republican national convention. joining us now is the former chief of the fbi firearms training unit. michael, fantastic to get your insight, your expertise with us this morning. can you just explain to me the organization, the preparation that goes into an event like saturday evening? a campaign rally? the ones we are used to wear donald trump victims of people often in the open air? help us understand how much work goes into something like that. >> a lot of work goes into these events. primarily it starts well in advance of the event as soon as the secret service is advised that the president or the candidate staff wants to appear

at a certain location, they send out the advance team which starts looking at it, doing a survey of the physical layout, working with local law enforcement agencies that will help support the event and identify potential security issues. and they set it up. they set it up so that when the team comes in on that day, the president or the candidate moves into the position and throughout the event, they look for emerging security issues that they may not have anticipated for that may develop, and then they hopefully get the candidate back in the limousine and get him out of there. but it is quite a bit of preparation. it includes the intelligence side. secret service has a very good intelligence process where they look at known threats, potential threats in that area and they engage on that in advance of the event. annmarie: michael, if this is all the advance work that is done, then how is it available

that an individual with a gun is less than 450 feet away from the former president? >> air is no way to catch this any other way than it was a security failure. clearly there was a failure there to secure that area, that elevated platform. a couple hundred feet away, that is a problem. they know that now, i think we all saw that, and there are going to be some very hard discussions within the secret service and within the greater security industry wondering why this happened to identify the causation of this, and i would expect the secret service to take some pretty dramatic internal measures to make sure this never happens again. but you can't say anything about this other than it is an absolute failure to secure the area. annmarie: do you think this comes down to a resource issue or procedural issue? >> it's a good question.

we will have to see what comes out. in these instances with the security failures or assassination attempts, these matters are so extensively dissected after the fact, so we are going to have every bit of detail on this going forward. but there are only two explanations, really. one is oversight of the planners, people on site. either they didn't see that as a correct, missed it somehow, or maybe possibly a person that was assigned to secure that area misunderstood some of the communication and they failed to catch that missing personnel office opposed the checking that area. the other side of it is a resource issue. they may have had to make some hard decisions on the ground as far as where to put personnel. they may have been limited somehow because in a lot of these events, they heavily rely on local law enforcement to supplement their limited staffing. every agency has limited

resources, so it is one or the other, but either way it is not a good day. jonathan: michael, that is what we wanted to discuss. there have been several reports but just to ask a direct question to work this through with you, we are trying to figure out at what point a threat was identified and how long the delay was between that and neutralizing that threat. and what it looks like based on very foggy pictures that we received so far and ultimately investigators will be trying to put this together over the next days, isn't looks like there was a significant delay. and it wasn't until the shots were fired that they were able to respond and neutralize the threat. michael, i'm trying to work out based on what you just said how closely secret service work oakland person on the ground how much communication there is between the two. the tears that they are responsible for and an event like the one we saw take place saturday evening. can you answer some of those questions? >> it is hard at this

point to understand the communication and the timeline of when that individual was spotted and when shots were actually -- when he was neutralize. it's going to come down to a real look at the timeline and analysis closely on what was seen, when it was communicated, how it was communicated, and it is just hard to surmise right now. because you have to look at while the individual was up there should never have been up there, should never have been allowed to get up there, for counter sniper team did a phenomenal job to neutralize that individual once the threat was identified. and you think about how fast that has to happen for those snipers up there to quickly identify and take definitive action to neutralize a threat, because it's always hanging back there, potential this could be a from support or just trying to get a view, could be a fellow agency sniper, or a tactical

person that was in the wrong place at the wrong time. they have to really make sure that who they are shooting at the right person is actually an imminent threat to the president. so there's a lot of moving parts here that goes into these situations. we also have to look at the fact that the secret service when they swarmed the president, we have to understand that they are doing so and directly exposing their body, to incoming fire. they are there to sacrifice their lives for the president. so individual officers here i think did a good job of doing what their training was, but we are really going to have to have a good after action report here and really dissect this in a very independent manner, and thorough manner to figure out what really happened vs. what our perception is here just 48 hours after this event. jonathan: i think we all agree on that. i think we all agree on that. i think we've all got the same

questions. we are waiting for the answers. jonathan: we heard from the former president in this washington examiner interview. he talks about the reality is setting in. i really look away from the crowd. had i not done it in that moment, we would not be talking today, would be? one inch where he moved his head. a very difficult. jonathan: a drastically different conversation. let's give you nothing on stories elsewhere this morning. yahaira: hamas saying it is still participating in cease fire discussions. spokesperson referred to a previous report of the group would quit the talks as baseless. this coming a day after an israeli airstrike on gaza aimed at killing two top officials including the groups military chief left dozens dead and hundreds injured. israel security officials saying sunday that they were confident their targeted attack was successful despite the group assertion the hamas military chief is well.

google parent alphabet is in talks for its biggest acquisition ever. sources telling bloomberg for tech giant is aiming to buy cybersecurity startup with for as much as $23 billion. the acquisition help google compete with microsoft and amazon in an increasingly competitive market. and spain is in full celebration mode. carlos alcaraz winning his second straight wimbledon singles championship. alcaraz took down novak djokovic in straight sets, planing his fourth grand slam title. the 21-year-old needed much less time to take them djokovic benin last year's final, winning in five sets. djokovic was hoping to take home his eighth tournament trophy, which would have tied in with roger federer for the most wimbledon titles. that is your bloomberg brief. jonathan: some of the winners of was sitting over the weekend just absolutely unreal. up next on the program, the rnc charting a path forward.

>> the fact that we are a divided nation is a real threat to this country. we are all trying to create a better country, trying to create opportunity, a safer environment. let's focus on those areas. jonathan: we will talk about that focus of next on the program. you are watching bloomberg surveillance. surveillance. i'm a rock star. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday. thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working. you people are (guitar noises). hand over the air guitar. i've got another one. (♪♪) (♪♪)

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♪ jonathan: that's get your week started with equity futures posited by 0.4%. adding some weight to the rally from last week. under surveillance this morning, the rnc charting at half forward. >> the fact that we are a divided nation is a real threat to this country. we are all trying to create a better country, trying to create opportunity, a safer environment. let's focus on those areas and trying to turn down the temperature. i'm trying to get americans to realize that we are in this thing together and we share

those same goals. jonathan: the republican national convention kicking off later as originally planned even after an assassination attempt on presumptive nominee donald trump. from telling the washington examiner is completely rewritten his convention speech, saying this is a chance to bring the whole country, even the whole world together. from even calling on one time rival nikki haley to attend the convention, a gesture widely seen as an effort to unify the gop. matthew, we got two candidates year, two divisive candidates who want to own the word unity. and i wonder from your perspective might be more successful doing so. >> good morning. a great question. again, coming off of what was just an absolutely important, horrible act that we saw saturday night in american politics. this race, a grudge match as you said, which was already cranked up to unseen levels in american political history and has now

taken yet again another odd turn. it is unclear, we've heard from president biden and several of his addresses, we first from trump on social media, we've heard from melania the need to talk about unifying the country, turning down the rhetoric. as you said, president trump has said he is looking to rewrite his speech, so it is an interesting inflection point and we will see who can take advantage of that. >> he's going to rewrite his speech but that is still rhetoric. what can you actually do that would signify he is trying to unify the republican party and the country? >> these are two candidates that have been cemented in the public consciousness probably for the better part of everyone's life. it's unclear what can be done to change the impressions, even something as severe as an assassination attempt obviously

most people of good faith would renounce that, yet i'm not sure that it would change people's attitudes or views when it comes to politics. so yes, the rhetoric will hopefully be turned down, but how that goes moving forward is still very unclear in american politics. dark out which of the names being floated for vice presidential pic could potentially help the republican party? >> well the republican party already is unified i believe. very much so, and as you alluded to earlier, so much that even nikki haley will be present, she will be speaking on the floor. not often vice presidential picks change in election, but i do think senator j.d. vance might actually be the pick at the base of the republican party wants moving forward and donald trump could be looking to kind of thank the face and make his pic with senator vance. jonathan: there's a sense that the biden campaign will have to

pivot perhaps for the time being, maybe for the duration of the campaign away from what they've been campaigning on for the last year, which is to frame donald trump as an existential threat to democracy. and perhaps lean in to things like abortion rights. matthew, when you start to try to play that three-dimensional chess about what may happen with the other side, does that influence or pick at who you should choose? >> unclear. we have a republican party that is unified, feels like they are winning on every issue, yield like this election is a foregone conclusion already. conversely, you have disarray on the democratic side. they now are unclear if joe biden will continue to be there nominee. much less how to approach trump as you just stated, in terms of rhetoric. a focused maybe on reproductive rights, abortion. it is unclear how this plays out but let's remember, we remain

bitterly divided right now and if you look in 2016, a disorganized team trump narrowly won election. it is very possible that joe biden and his campaign even with all of the dysfunction should not be counted out just quite yet. jonathan: you're familiar with the inner workings of campaigns. can we talk about the finance in the bed as well? we know that this campaign has been very divided against certain democratic officials down in washington, d.c. who would like to see the sitting president drop out of the race and we know the consequences of that. there were some donors holding back from donating to the campaign. we also know some of the consequences from saturday evening is that the former president has been able to attract support from the likes of bill ackerman and elon musk. matthew, as you look at the money coming in, are you expecting a lot more money to go toward the trump campaign and move away from, say, the biden campaign?

>> you never make absolute guarantees, but i think that is a wise take. i think you will see a lot of trump supporters even on a small level will become trump donors and yes, you are seeing some of the big dogs in finance coming off the sidelines, coming back, either returning to team trump or in the case of ackerman, now helping elon musk, pouring in money, support. that is a fact. money matters, make no mistake. it is very hard to overcome a deficit. it shows support. it is not necessarily a leading indicator, sometimes it can be a lagging indicator and it shows where the support is right now, where the energy is right now. find biden's side, the notion of having some of your top donors publicly withholding, stating that they are going to withhold funds from a presidential campaign all but four months

away from a general election is just absolutely devastating. >> do you think this posits concerns about biden page or does it completely put them to a screeching halt? >> i think the conversation has changed significantly, dramatically to where we are now talking about an assassination attempt. there was always a notion of if joe biden can survive last week and nato and some of his press conference, that the conversation would be changed. i believe the page has now been turned. the democratic party is almost even resigned, some senior democrats are saying they are resigned to a second trump term. i think there certainly will be a focus on whether or not maybe joe biden can continue on, but if they're really an effort to save the house or senate from republican control? even that is in question. >> appreciate your time this morning. that word referred repeatedly

over the weekend, unite, unify. the language of both presidents over the weekend. the sitting and former president. donald trump saying unite america. president biden saying we must unite as one nation. the difficulty two divisive candidates are going to have convincing independents that they are the candidate significantly. annmarie: some of the rhetoric coming out of the trump camp, trump has the base now fully energized. if they were for him, they are certainly going to be for him november 5. the potential he can build on this is potentially the vice presidential pick a more established figure to shore up those independents, that he makes sure the good for him him november 5. jonathan: let's go through the names. governor youngkin, virginia. senator j.d. vance, senator lugar, governor burgum. what are four people represent?

what is behind the? annmarie: what he wants the ticket to look like. if you go to senator j.d. vance this is going to be someone from the very right of the spectrum that were looking on the screen. if you go for marco rubio, someone who is very hawkish on foreign policy, also could speak to the latino community. these are establishment picks. these are names that say. ken griffin would look at and say i had a conversation with you know i'm ready to put cash in your campaign. they are establishment names that i think could really help the trump campaign, not just look at the maga right, but look at the middle. jonathan: based on the conversation you have, and we don't know this, but for the purpose of this conversation, let's say the former president made up his mind friday night, saturday morning about who was the fee -- vp. do people really believe that saturday evening might have

changed that for him? annmarie: potentially it could. trump is not sharing it. the former president has an idea of who he wants to go with, he's not sharing it with anyone. jonathan: we are waiting for goldman numbers. we will also catch up with ambassador john bolton. the attempt unite a republican party, to unite this country. to talk about policy and campaigning as well. how these campaigns will shift, what it means for policy and ultimately what it will mean for financial markets. i'm happy to say that dani burger is going to drop by the studio and catch up with us as well. equity features right now positive by 0.4%. just a little bit of a selloff at the longer end of the curve in the bond market. yields higher by three or four basis points. from new york, the second hour of "bloomberg serveillance" up next.

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♪ announcer: this is "bloomberg serveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern. jonathan: good morning, the second hour bloomberg surveillance starts right now. we begin with our top story, former president donald trump and president joe biden preparing for a new campaign. both political parties calling for cooler rhetoric after this weekend's assassination attempt. trump rewriting his speech at the republican national

convention begins in battleground state of wisconsin, telling the washington examiner we had a very tough speech and i threw it out last night. i said i can't say these things after what i've been through. president biden addressing the nation and calling for unity. biden: while we may disagree, we are not entities. we are neighbors. we are friends, coworkers, citizens. and most importantly we are fellow americans. we must stand together. yesterday's shooting at donald trump's rally in pennsylvania calls on all of us to take a step back. take stock of where we are. how we go forward from here. jonathan: our team coverage the sour starts right now with annmarie alongside adriana. great to catch up with you. you were there at the rally. you've been following donald trump, his campaign, his legal issues for the last several months. can you walk us through what to place on saturday evening and your experience of it?

>> absolutely. so i was indeed, as you mentioned, at the rally. i've been covering trump for many months, been to several rallies, some outdoors, some indoors and it all began as normal. droves of people in attendance waiting hours for him in the heat. his music playing, people are dancing, waiting in anticipation. he starts with some of the similar opening lines as he always does, talking about uniting the republican party, fixing what he feels is wrong with the state of the country, and then all of a sudden we hear the gunshots and everyone d ucks. at first unaware of what is going on and the extent to which the event that just took place, will you be coming back, if the event over? there was a lot of chaos and confusion as people scrambled to figure out what to do. annmarie: what we hear from the former president in the washington examiner is that he is rewriting his speech. what is your expectation for

what he plans to say to the rnc this week? >> you know, the news of him rewriting the speech isn't necessarily a shock. he's been looking forward to this for months, even years with pandemic interrupting the kind of normal flow of the convention. i think what it really comes down to is unity. this obviously a lot of division in this country, this event over the weekend really underscores that. the question is how to unite the party as well as even beyond the republican party, looking to pull in the independents. how is he going to address the shooting as well as gun-control? we have all of these mass shootings of course, so i think that is going to be a big question as well, trying to pull in the independents and continue to rally his base. >> and do we have an update on when trump is going to make his announcement for his vp pick? >> that is the big question

here. he has said in several different interviews obviously we know it has to come during the convention. wednesday night is when the vp is supposed to speak, so we know it will be before that. i'm hearing potentially monday, which is today, so all eyes and ears are out there. the same few names have been thrown around, but of course what is interesting here is it will ultimately be up to trump himself. so i'm hearing sources tell me he may be the only one who knows. he could switch it up last minute, so we are waiting eagerly. jonathan: great work over the weekend, thanks are being without this morning. expect much more the week from milwaukee, wisconsin. of course right here at bloomberg we got to look at the markets. there's two things that stand out for all about this morning. check out equities first. the outperformance you can see on small caps.

turn the page and get to the bond market, this is what i'm talking about in the bond market. high yields and steeper curves. yields up by five basis points. dani burger started the program a little bit early this morning looking at the same thing. great to have you with us alongside us. how much of this is just a continuation of last week and how much is drawing a line from what their over the weekend and get markets to say small caps in high yields, trump trade? >> the steepener is a clear trump trade. the market before had seen these tight odds of trump winning and said we can concentrate on the economics which, let's be honest is bullish for bonds. this changes something. someone said he was getting inundated with calls about what does a buy replacement mean for the markets? because the assumption was that trump was weak enough that just by replacing the candidate you have someone coming in. the odds of a trump presidency

are rising, that is the bottom line. this week will be really important to give us a window into what 2025 could look like a trump wins the president. >> let's talk about this. what we see is equity futures, small caps outperform, yields are higher at the long end. there is a belief in financial markets it is going to be donald trump volume two, maybe even in a landslide. what are you telling clients this morning? >> last week marketing in new york and boston it was almost impossible to find someone that did not think that donald trump was going to win. and i think after the weekend that is only going to become supercharged. the conventional wisdom right now is going to be that this is his election to lose. but i remind folks is that we have so many unknown factors that are impacting this race, and i tend to agree with that, but we still have to decide

whether or not biden is the nominee. trump has to decide who his vice presidential pick is. the number of unknowns out there are vast. certainly the race could tighten, or we could be in a debate right now, i repeat trump or pete biden? as you mentioned, the next question we get is how big the republican victory could be. do we prepare for that republican sweep? what are those policies, is that inflationary? those are all the secondary questions we are getting this morning here. jonathan: she didn't talk about 2024, she talked about 2025. 2025 to be the most impactful policy year of our lifetime. can you just build that out for us, how impactful the policy coming out of the trump campaign, coming off the back of a republican sweep might be? dark out when i talk to former trump officials and staffers, six months ago they were a hard know that they would ever serve

in a second trump administration, and in the last couple months for, well, maybe for the right job. i think the events of this weekend moved them to yes. and when we go back to 2016, donald trump did not expect to win the presidency is what everyone who worked trump tells me. they did not have a transition team, they did not have people in place, they did not have policies in place. they are not going to make that mistake twice. they are fleshing out the plans. we've heard it through the heritage, the america first policies to project 2025 and when we look at the fiscal cliff that are coming up next year, there are forcing mechanisms were congress has to act. when you add to that the planning that is taking place, and a lot of the policy changes that could come in the first six months alone of next year are probably the greatest that i have ever seen in my lifetime. annmarie: speaking of former officials that work for the former president as well as policy, you know that mike pence

was relied heavily on for policy decisions. what kind of vp are you expecting from this president, potential future president, former president if he was going to run an individual for policy first? >> one of the former trump officials i was talking to said watch a market reaction to who he chooses as vice president because are goodly, who donald trump chooses as vice president is one of the most important decisions he makes because during his first administration, every policy discussion, mike pence with bear and he was one of the last voices and often used his opinion to influence his own. so with j.d. vance, that is a signal that is absolutely going to be tough on trade, going to have much more trade fights that he has previewed. if it is marco rubio, that is a really tough on china trade. i would be really concerned about semiconductors and equipment because those are going to be expanded if it is a

doug burgum, if it is glenn youngkin. those are much more middle-of-the-road, pro-business picks. i think those are where we see the market react most positive and probably for energy with doug burgum given the fact that he is the governor of north dakota. annmarie: do you think the events of saturday evening, this attempted assassination event, do you think that will potentially change who trump decides on? >> it's hard to say. i think the thing that changes the most is that i look at the trump voter in 2016 and 2020 and they are not the super voted. -- voter. even at last week's press conference, the silver lining that biden was trying to give to the party was when you look at likely voters, that is where joe biden has been the strongest, and now likely voters are surging in the direction of donald trump and i think for that conversation, if i know that my face is going to show

up, do i need to pick j.d. vance to make sure my base is there, or do i pivot to marco rubio trying to get a different demographic, or a more mainstream pic of the doug burgum, glenn youngkin for kind of the middle of the ground building out that face because i think he knows that his base is guaranteed to show up given the events of last week. annmarie: we are going to beginning dated with polls this week asking what difference that made. how much can we trust them when we are still informing so much new information, not only the consequences of saturday but a new vp pick and still a debate on the democratic side of what happens with biden and his presidency. can we really take to heart the polls we are about to get? >> i think that the polls are a good indicator of where we are, or what general neighborhood we are in. i think people try to view polls as telling you the exact address that you are at, and that is not their ability.

i don't necessarily think they are going to be terribly predictive. but i think for the campaign and for the market, if we do see kind of his significant move toward donald trump, that is only going to encourage folks who are putting on the trump trade to kind of be in the more aggressive there. i think we are probably going to be in a conversation of if the trajectory continues, how big of that republican victory could that be? is there anything that democrats could change? that could set us up for a potential surprise. we are still an incredibly divided nation, unfortunately. you have two candidates at the top of the ticket but have almost half of the country saying that they won't vote for them, so if we get to november and all of the polls go in one direction, are we setting ourselves up for another surprise that we have seen consistently in our politics recently and around the world? annmarie: it is a divided nation

but historically moments of shock like this have acted to almost cauterize a nation, pushing people toward moderation and again, you see some about language coming out from biden and trump, changing some of his speech. feel expect this time to be different? is this only the start of an era of political violence? >> that is one of the bigger concerns here. but we see historically is political violence political violence. best part of white is so abhorrent and that is why a message of unity is important, because when i was on capitol hill and i would travel internationally, folks that i might not necessarily get along with in d.c., once you travel, you realize how small our differences actually are and that has been one of my concerns here is that they that bring us together are greater things that divide us. so i do hope that message of unity can last more than a day or two and people do have to

remember as americans, we have so much in common and don't let that political jersey that you put on from time to time be the thing that defines us and be the thing that makes us more divisive than we really are. you take that jersey off and you talk to people, you realize just how much we jonathan: have in common. jonathan:well said. you've been a good friend of the program. ed mills of raymond james. that's get you an update on stories elsewhere. yahaira: elon musk and bill ackerman are throwing their support behind donald trump. the billionaires announcing their endorsements after saturday's assassination attempts on the former president. musk said he fully supports trump moments after he was rushed upstate on saturday. before the incident took place we did learn through sources days ago that musk had donated to a group called america pac which supports the trump campaign in swing states.

shares of bird very falling at the company posted disappointing first-quarter results, suspended dividend payments and replaced its ceo. jonathan aykroyd will be departing the company after less than 2.5 years as a luxury retailer sees a continued slowdown in sales. share prices have nearly have since aykroyd took charge. former ceo of michael kors joshua showman is set to take his place. and a hacker reportedly stole sensitive call text logs from at&t said they were paid $400,000 to erase the data. a person familiar with the negotiations confirmed the payment while the actress said they provided video evidence of them deleting the data in order to show they had filled their part of the agreement. an at&t spokesperson declined to comment on the matter. jonathan: what a bizarre story. more in about 30 minutes. still ahead, financial markets. ken leon on goldman sachs

numbers. former u.s. ambassador to the u.n. john bolton. up next on the program, the trump trade gaining momentum. >> wrote this event change the direction? if it does it is because it is most likely going to be perceived as a potential wave election. jonathan: from new york this morning, good morning. ♪

jonathan: equity futures on the s&p 500 higher, firmer, positive by almost half of 1% on the s&p. under surveillance this morning, the trump trade gaining momentum. >> whether you want to talk about stocks, bond yields or the dollar, if you look at those charts, can you see in those

charts conviction data, the date of the debate, and the answer largely is no. with this event change the direction where those events didn't before? if it does, it is most likely because it is a potential wave election. jonathan: the attempt assassination of the former president. the treasury curve steepening, up six basis on the 30 year. there might be a flight to safety where treasuries --, but i would --, i would expect produced inflows, maybe even outflows hurting stocks and bonds. pete, great to see you. this is a very different way of looking at this price action in the bond market right now because i think the conventional way, consensus view this morning, and inflationary presidency under donald trump and that is why we have high

yields. >> we are so far away from the actual election and understanding what anyone who ultimately wins the real qualities are going to be, i think it is a bit overdone. you see bitcoin doing very well, i think we are going to go back and reflect on a few things. we were seeing some selling pressure, some rotation, response to earnings. i think the big question is as we get this rotation, is the money going to come from elsewhere? on the bonsai i honestly think it is this whole trump deficit trade, whoever wins is going to -- the deficit, it is going to be bad for bonds either way and that is going to be the thought process, the deficit is going higher no matter who comes it in charge. one might be more tax cuts, one might be more spending, but ultimately the deficit is going

higher. maybe even posited by election time. annmarie: there was a slight bit of that trade in 2016 when it became more apparent that trump would be the presidential candidate of the difference was stocks and bonds were negatively correlated. stocks going up alongside yields , so what is happening this time? do we need to go back to that ingredient of stocks, bonds negatively correlated? >> stock futures are way off and i tweeted out i think trump will be good for stocks, he's a businessman. no one wanted to believe it at the time. i think how people react in a thin market overnight over a weekend when we are all processing what actually happened, how did this happen, i'm going to take all of this and push it aside and get back to earnings. what is going on with the rotation and, to me, will people now start taking profits because does this add more uncertainty to our election?

we had a great run, we've been outperforming, with stakes and chips off the table. >> you look at the u.s. slowing growth in some areas, political volatility, so much uncertainty. does the narrative of american exceptionalism get challenged right now? >> i think the jobs data is already coming down, it is still overstated. you are seeing little cracks in parts of the consumer, certainly the lower end consumer seems to be having some difficulty. i think all that takes a real risk and we are trying to figure out how does the rest of the world perceived this not just from a market standpoint, but china, north korea, iran, russia. they see this as potential

vulnerability in the u.s. we are talking about should president biden stay in for reelection? now we are talking about an assassination. we just wonder, does this let us take our eye off the ball enough that someone tries something? geopolitical risk continues to ramp up and it is pretty high right now, so we are nervous of something occurring outside. annmarie: if you are a foreign investor, can you separate the u.s. politically toxic environment from capital market? >> to some degree you can. 50% of u.s. company earnings are coming from overseas. i think you can get through that and still it is really about parsing the ai story. is the ai story still early? have we gone overboard? does ai continue to lead the way or do we get a rollover? and if we rollover, that is going to be so much pressure

that even if small caps outperform, is going to be in the down market rather than the upmarket. one >> theme you constantly talk to us about is the rise of geopolitical risk. in that sense, you like commodities. what exactly in the commodity space? >> the energy space is where we like. whether it is ai, demand for data centers. almost anything that you look in the world that would be disruptive from geopolitical is going to influence either the shipment of oil or the production of oil. i don't mind industrials, but i do think if we get increase geopolitical risk it is going to come with a slowing economy, some fears about that. it's going to be much more in the energy. i could be convinced of google but it is not something i follow that closely. jonathan: we started talking about perception, a market would perceive the events of the weekend, how they perceive a second trump presidency.

can we just go through the names briefly again? this is the one i'm interested in. senator j.d. vance of ohio. let's say he is the vp pick. what do you think the perception is going to be in the financial community when this is an individual that most people regard to have more in common with the likes of senator warren than the conventional republicans in the senate? how would you perceive that pick? >> that's why i'm waiting until much closer. who actually comes in, what they say, what they do. what is said. there is a lot of room for noise. to me is very low on the totem pole in terms of what i want to invest in. i'm not looking at that very carefully because i think there is a lot of time for change. i have you been a little bit right now like brexit where i spend most of my time trying not to understand it and it really paid off because i didn't waste two years of my life for

nothing. jonathan: i did the same thing. brexit was a global story, became a european story, became a u.k. story. in america i think it is always a global story in that is the big difference between some of the news and developments we steam -- seen stateside. it is going to have international consequences. good to see you. up next, goldman numbers drop. we will get the numbers from shelley bassett -- annmarie on top of the politics. futures on the s&p 500 positive here. from new york, this is bloomberg. (♪♪)

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jonathan: last week we kicked off earnings season on wall street. we had some jp morgan. this morning, it is the return of goldman sachs. with the numbers, it is bloomberg's sonali basak. sonali: beat almost every business line here, but something interest income even with a beat on revenue, returns on equity, efficiency a little higher than expected. what does this mean? it means goldman is ready to pay again, essentially unchanged from the first quarter of this year, but you do see them

worried on compensation a little higher as they bring in more revenue, you have trading beating expectations on fixed income by a landslide and equity training -- training as well not only beating expectations but coming in over where jp morgan came in just last week, as well as over where morgan stanley is expected to come in tomorrow. a big chance goldman becomes a top player in equities trading once again, driven higher by derivatives as well as finances, additional clients, hedge funds. you also have david solomon explaining this environment as improving but complex. we are seeing volatility become goldman spent once again, jon. jonathan: you mentioned morgan stanley last night. what do you think the read across is for them? sonali: expense is higher for everyone, for one thing, but everyone will be treated different for them. it depends on what you are

spending the money on and the bottom line. jonathan: traders getting it done. sonali basak leaving that effort at 9:00 a.m. eastern time. goldman sachs help a little bit. ken leon joins us for more. jp, wells fargo, goldman just now, what is your take away this morning? ken: i think investors are beginning to move away from rates or net interest income. today, it is really about the market, it is about investment banking, and also, goldman's ability really to be top of the table. so what we see with these results, obviously the earnings beat, but we have resilient businesses that are also in position to gain while a share. the asset and wealth management business, david solomon will speak about the increasing alternative investments, over $300 billion, which possibly

give goldman's stock a higher multiple, that whole segment. in investment banking, we have not spoken enough last friday, but today we are seeing improvement in equity underwriting and also debt on was a three-year high -- debt underwriting was a three-year high going for the second quarter. lastly, while m&a is ok, it is likely to do better the second half of this year, because most of the financial crisis, private equity firms, have been on the sideline, and they need to enact it in order to get their lp investors into new flagship funds. so think of that, jon, a year ago, we were talking about david solomon in terms of his strategy, consumer, resale, does this really make sense? and they have cleaned that up, and now they are positioned really to be a leader, as they should be, in the major businesses they've served.

annmarie: number giving you -- dani: ken, the numbers giving you a rosy picture, i cannot help but wonder if it is a myth for investment banking, specifically advisory fees rising 7%. what do you make of that? this has been a cash cow for so many of the banks you've heard from before. ken: yeah. street analysts have a target price of $470. we are at $483. i think there are significant discounts of the s&p 500. additionally, to my point, the m&a we see in it has not been the financial sponsor which have $1 trillion that have to exit either in a transaction like m&a or an ipo. and we will hear that from blackstone later this week and kkr later next week. goldman is in a great position where they can be an intermediary to execute those

trades, but now business in the areas that will give the stock a higher multiple, wealth management has over $3 trillion in alternative investments. that's where the market is going. is in private, credit, very attractive areas that these banks can take market share. dani: goldman has raised a lot of money in that regard. does that mean that this is going to be an earnings season of banks come of the banks that have the private asset management arm and those that are exposed to the consumer? ken: i think the conversation last week was, should we be in large banks or small? clearly the diversified large banks are winning, but within those,, those that have a more concentration into the areas that we just mentioned versus worried about consumer delinquencies and lower net interest income, the bank of americas, the citis, wells

fargos, we saw wells fargo last week. after the fed was a stress test in june, goldman is increasing their dividend 9% for the third quarter. so i with the convoluted formula of the stress test, so they are going back. jonathan: we talk a lot about tech stocks and the runaway rally. i don't think we talked enough about the performance of the bank. you mentioned bank of america. that report in the next 24 hours or so. they are of 24% so far. goldman is high, citi still high by 25 percentage points. that is a bank story. let's go through two asset classes, start with equities. equity futures up again this morning, but the outperformer's on the small caps, the russell, and if you look at the bond market, dani did a great job of this earlier this morning, thinking of the political considerations, focal trump trade come a steeper yield curve, the the 10 year basis

points, the 30-year up by 6. after the weekend was the event, tragic event, almost a whole lot worse than it could have been, how do you take in political considerations when it comes to the market? ken: i think the markets are still listening to the fed and jay powell's comments last week. i think strategist will be raising their target prices. the markets are resilient. we see s&p 500 earnings going this year up 8%, 9% to 15% next year. if that is true and we have a kind of healthy economy next year, that will be a great platform in terms of equity investing. relative to technology, which has been the best, financial sector is moving a little bit below the s&p 500, but the large banks are 17% up this year, right where the s&p 500 will trade at a significant discount on valuation. in the case of the 500 at 20

times, banks are at 10 times. we might have a little bit more room for the banks, and i like the dispersion for the market. that is a healthy sign. annmarie: kenneth, you think the markets are focused on jay powell. are they looking at all the politics? how do you explain a morning like today? ken: so, the probability of a rate cut in september has increased. most are now looking for two cuts. and what that could mean, you know, it is always a 2x story with banks, because you play with the mechanics of net income interest rates, you get narrow spread, that interest margin tightening. but if you do that in the backdrop when you look at the flywheels of a stronger economy biting into a higher, and the loan balance is all set, even if you have lower rate. we are not going to zero rate, but we've got a pretty good picture here for financials,

particularly some of the large banks. the worry i think goes downstream, where you have smaller banks, 65% to 75% of your revenue is net interest income. jonathan: good to catch up with you, sir. ken leon, cfra, on the financials. the curve, turning positive early this morning, after being negative for much of this year. the 10 year at the moment by 4 basis points, the 30 by 6, the two-year going absolutely nowhere, totally anchored. this type of war, it is this economic data, soft on the labor market over the last month or so. inflation coming in lower-than-expected on cpi. by the way, cpi, that report on thursday, feels like a lifetime ago. [laughter] the political federations could drive yields higher. dani: it is interesting, because ken leon used the word "resilient" to describe it. a lot of people taken a different way, they say complacent.

ukraine, those pricing into the oil market, they came back so quickly, even france. we have really come back there. it is a market that does not want to go there often, so sure, you could call it resilient, but the question needs to be asked, are we complacent? jonathan: yeah. so difficult to be worked out, particularly when people like ed mills of raymond james come on the program and say, 2025 could be the biggest platform from of the biggest changes he has seen in his lifetime. we will see. here's your bloomberg brief with yahaira jacquez. yahaira: last week smiled inflation prints gives him more confidence that price pressures are easing. goals be adding he is concerned rates will contribute to an unduly restrictive policy stance. investing is -- investors looking forward to comments from

chair powell later today. donald trump's defiance response to the assassinations of on saturday, cryptocurrency rose to top $63,000, lifted by speculation that the pro-crypto presidential candidate's chances have improved. and lionel messi had to leave the 20 coco america final game versus columbia -- copa america final game versus colombia. fans gave him a standing ovation as he left the pitch. his team went on to beat colombia. that is your bloomberg brief, john. jonathan: messi, a picture of the ankle, anyone knows what that looks like. have you ever done it before, twisted ankle? dani: no, i'm not a sports

person, nor do i plan to be. because about. [laughter] jonathan: i did when i was younger. we are waiting for an announcement on trump's running mate. terry: the three that get thrown around a lot is like the kid's game of telephone. he does not take haley come again haley is a prominent part of the administration. he needs outreach with independent appeal. jonathan: i conversation of next. live from new york city this morning, good morning. ♪

jonathan: just to catch it on the price action for you, equities on the s&p 500 higher by about 0.4%. talk about the outperformer's on the smoke outcome of the russell doing better than good over the last weekend again this morning. yields are higher, bonds are lower. the 10 year 4.2333.

this morning, we are still waiting for an announcement on trump's running mate. terry: the three names they get thrown around a lot is like the kids game of telephone, where everyone talks about the three names, and pretty soon it is the three names. i've never seen anything from the trump campaign indicate it is only those three names. if he does not take haley, yet haley is still a prominent part of the administration committee needs outreach with some independent appeal. jonathan: latest this morning, donald trump's rally's been expected at the rnc this week, the convention come thursday with his vp expected to be announced before than for joining us now after the tragic events of the weekend is ambassador john bolton, former national security advisor and a former ambassador to the united states. ambassador john bolton, thank you for being with us once again. it's good to catch up with you. you've been to events with the former president trump. you seen the degree of security that is provided.

how surprised were you got something like this could happen saturday evening? amb. bolton: well, it was obviously very surprising, you know, there has been a lot of commentary on what went wrong, what mistakes were made. i think it was right for president biden to say he's going to set up an independent review. none of us are experts just because we watch it on television. i've been a protestee, i still am for various reasons, but that does not mean i am an expert on peripheral control. i think we are fortunate that trump was only wounded. it is a tragedy that one of the experts was killed. we need to review this in a calm way. doing quickly as well, because they are already conspiracy theories on what happened on saturday but i think our loony tunes, but i don't think they are going to go away until we have an independent objective

review. dani: ambassador, we will be starting the rnc -- annmarie: ambassador, we will be starting off the rnc, it is kicking off right after the assassination attempt. already in an interview with "the washington examiner," he says he is rewriting his entire speech. amb. bolton: well, he probably believe that when he said it. whether it turned out to be true is anybody's guess. certainly the mood of the country, i think, is such that it would be the right thing to do to try to calm partisan tempers down, and that is what he may well do. it would also be to his electoral advantage. i think the image of defiance that he gave when he was shot and what he said since then puts him in a very good position, just to be totally analytical about it. and it would be, i think, in his interests to have a message of conciliation. whether he is able to do that, i

don't know, but if you focus the argument on what is best for donald trump, i think that is the answer. annmarie: you said in the past even the highest priority of his vp pick is absolutely loyalty to the man, donald trump. do you think following these advance, and what is best for him is to talk about unity, maybe uniting the party and the country, would it be to pick someone more for the center? amb. bolton: well, trump is not have a philosophy, he does not really do policy, for him, there's no left, right, or center, there's only donald trump at the center of the universe. i think it's possible any of the names mentioned can be picked. i don't think he settled on a name a week ago. i don't think it has changed since saturday. this is a constant matter of reevaluation to him until the last minute. i used to say with trump, nothing is final until it is final, and even then maybe not then. dani: ambassador, one of the

historical corollaries a lot of people have used for this is 19 81, and attempted assassination on ronald reagan. his daughter wrote an op-ed in the "new york times" over the weekend, saying her father believes he had been saved by god for a reason, and that was to end the cold war. this feeling of embolden mitt, do you think trump will feel the same sense, that he now has a mandate for certain policies, that he should push through more. leak -- more forcefully should he become the president? amb. bolton: i don't think we can say for sure. it is obviously shocking at a political rally to be shot at come wounded, to be a danger for some period of time. that has to have an effect on anybody. but trump has a remarkable gyroscope, although he has a short attention span for many things committee has a fixed attention span on himself. and i think using this attempt on his life as a way of proving

his martyrdom and the victim narrative that he has so successfully used politically i think he will use. whether that translates into specific action if he is elected i think is hard to say, but will use it politically to maximize his options was elected? absolutely. dani: that political martyrdom, ambassador bolton, you're describing something that seems like a good fan the flames of division within this country. how concerned are you about that, that this is the start of an era that has been bubbling back to the surface for so long, that it brings into a boiling point? amb. bolton: look, we had boiling points in this country. one was called the civil war. we are nowhere close to that, rhetoric notwithstanding. i thanked trump could cause a lot of -- i think trump could cause a lot of damage if he is reelected. i've been saying that for years. i do not think he is an existential threat to our democracy. i think it is harmful to say that.

i think trump focuses on what he wants to do, not on grand historical themes, and i think his focus at the moment is very much on how to use the upcoming convention to maximize the chances he will win in november. jonathan: ambassador, you have question his fitness work office. -- for office. questioning his risk to democracy. i want to understand, his potential to unite the party. you are a republican. you worked with donald trump. you work with bush. you worked in the reagan presidency as well. what would it take to come ambassador, for donald trump to get you behind him and unite this party? is that even possible? amb. bolton: no, because i do think trump is not fit to be president. i do not wish ill on anybody, to the gravely wounded or to donald trump for what he was put through, but that episode does not change my fundamental view

of him. maybe he will have a conversion. that is always possible, too, redemption is a reality. it can happen. but as of now, i don't think that will change anything. i'm just being cold-blooded here, this event will politically benefit donald trump, and we may look back at the debate, the presidential debate, and now the events of saturday and say, this was the moment where biden's campaign trajectory went into a nosedive from which it never escaped. dani: if you don't think he is fit to be president, is there a vp pick that would assuage your concerns? amb. bolton: no, because we might still get four years of donald trump. and i don't believe fox has changed -- facts have changed about personal loyalty to trump, not loyalty to the country, not loyalty to the constitution, loyalty to a man who told mike pence to violate his oath of office on january 6, 2021.

that will remain trump's primary objective. so we will see who it is, but i worry that whoever the person turns out to be, they will have given the wrong answer to that question. jonathan: ambassador, you have a deep understanding of foreign policy and international security. a long, long amount of experience on those issues. can we finish on that? ambassador, how do you think the enemies of this country will be viewing the elements of the last week, not just last weekend, but the issues the sitting president is facing as well? how are you thinking of that at the moment? amb. bolton: well, divisions within the american body politic's are a tonic for foreign adversaries. i think they are watching this whole process very closely. i think they know that the united states has a fixed amount of bandwidth at any given time. we have a war in ukraine, war in the middle east, we got a very divisive political season underway and adversaries like russia, china, iran, north korea

are undoubtedly thinking to themselves, are there things we can do right now to take advantage of this disarray? they will following through to campaign season, and i think i could be a very volatile time, not necessarily for the united states directly come about friends and allies around the world. jonathan: is there a part of the world you are more concerned about than others? amb. bolton: well, i think the one area we do not have an actual conflict at the moment is the indo pacific periphery around china. we have been concerned about taiwan, the south china sea, china's land borders, vietnam, india. i think if you are looking for a place where conflict could break out before november, it would be a long that periphery. jonathan: ambassador come appreciate your time this morning. hopefully we can see you again soon. investor john bolton on the future of this presidency. -- ambassador john bolton on the

future of this presidency. the chance of uniting this party, based on that assessment, will be difficult. the risk of is something we talk about more. enemy to the united states taking advantage of some of the issues we are confronting over the last month. annmarie: look how vulnerable the u.s. is. you talked about this last week, a nato conference, two hot wars are having around the world, yet everyone in the room wanted to know about biden's age and what time he goes to bed. at onto the weekend when the presumptive public and nobody was the target of an assassination attempt. the entire world -- republican nominee was the target of an assassination attempt. the entire world is paying attention. dani: not just economic but to some degree politics, that we can get for the politics, we still have a better economy, a better place to put your dollars. i don't think you can really say that at this point. we have as much political volatility is elsewhere in the

world, and potentially more, considering the gun culture of america, considering the reactions. some of the congresspeople who've come outcome even vp picks who have come out and said biden is directly responsible for this, something j.d. vance said. jonathan: that is the question that pete was asking a little bit earlier this week as well. the question i would have a response is ok, we've got the u.s. dollar, what else is there? where else do you go? dani: i guess, you know, it is the small things. potential you sell more treasuries, you start to buy gold. i mean, the dollar does not really lose its reign, but it will be challenged. jonathan: the s&p 500 firm or by .4%. the third hour of "bloomberg surveillance" is up next. congressman mike turner, retired secret service agent jeff james, and we catch up with more. this is bloomberg. ♪

the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. "soulmates." soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title.

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>> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and annmarie hordern. jonathan: 90 minutes away from

the opening bell with equity futures positive .4%. we begin with our top story, a defining moment for the history of the country and the race for the white house. former president donald trump and president joe biden calling for calm and unity following the assassination attempt on trump. the republican national convention beginning today and the key state of wisconsin with a new tone. anne-marie and joe mathieu in milwaukee. walk us through what we can expect from the rsc -- from the rnc and how different it will be after the events of the weekend. joe: this is day one and reporting suggests donald trump it in an interview, that he has rewritten his speech. that will be thursday night. how many other speeches are rewritten and when we will get a vice presidential announcement?

all of that will become clear in the next 24 hours. we are hearing a running mate could emerge this afternoon. if you believe donald trump is a changed man, he is speaking from the same book joe biden was last night and a call for unity and this could be a very different republican national convention than it would've been before saturday. annmarie: can you give us a sense of what security feels like now since a lot of questions are being asked about the security failures over the weekend? joe: they have been pretty busy. there are 40 law enforcement agencies here. i had to walk to our workspace because you cannot drive through downtown milwaukee and they have been hardening the perimeter already in place. you cannot mistake the security presence with 50,000 people. it is not just protecting the folks we are focused on. the lawmakers and members of the former trump administration.

it is the media walking around the city. it is other dignitaries who are here. this is one of the highest levels of security in the country. a super bowl with airport style security. massive barriers. they are only increasing and hardening the security. let's take a look at where we are by thursday. each day i have come through you see rolling closures, they try to change it up. it'll be more pronounced by thursday. dani: you started talking about the unity message trump plans to give, talking to the washington inquirer about that. is that shared by his party -- not even by congresspeople but the populace. is there that urge for unity or is there fear and more divisiveness? joe: you are asking the right questions. even if the unity is there today, where is it next week, where is it by the democratic convention?

no one should pretend to have the answers. when i set at this desk last evening with senator ron johnson of wisconsin known by many as a firebrand, making the call for unity. we talked to brian style, a congressman from wisconsin back in his home state for the convention making the same call. this is day one. we cannot deny everyone does seem to be on the same page after very difficult messaging over the weekend. they were very angry about this attack on the former president and trying to connect the dots to politics. this is a convention that will try to transcend it. let's see if the rank-and-file will follow. jonathan: looking forward to your coverage with kailey leinz of that convention. we all have questions. the number one question we all have after saturday night. how on earth did this happen? joining us is republican

congressman mike turner and chair of the house intelligence committee. i understand you bracing with the -- i understand you have a briefing with the fbi later today. what are the questions you have for them? rep. turner: that is the first question, how could this happen? as we learn more it becomes unexplainable and unbelievable this individual would've had the ability to pull this off by himself and this vulnerability would've been there at the event any would've had access and the ability to execute in a manner which put donald trump's life at risk. thank god donald trump is alive and his iconic rise from the stage to show america he is alive and his strength was shown. that certainly plays a tremendous impact on world leaders to see the strength of donald trump. annmarie: this is not the first secret service security lapse we have seen.

something we've been grappling with is this a resource issue or a protocol issue. do you have an understanding? rep. turner: those are the questions. on the protocol issue it also goes to why is it he was not shot until after he was shooting when we obviously know there were a number of individuals who identified his location and that he had a weapon. also the issue of resources. why wasn't the perimeter larger. why weren't there more people protecting former president trump? those are questions we will get to. the reality is that this is something that will land on somebody's desk because they are responsible and we want to find who that is and how these decisions were made but also how this came about where this kid, who seemingly did nothing in his life up to this point that was extraordinary, was able to take advantage of what was an obvious vulnerability. annmarie: and the distance, less than 450 feet away from the former president. your committee, what role cannot

play in this investigation? rep. turner: we will be working with the government oversight committee of which i am a member and even homeland security committee. this will go across several. this will be an unfolding investigation because it will involve not only agencies but individuals and certainly the circumstances of this shooter and how he ended up on that roof. jonathan: considering we do not have the answers to these questions and considering the republican national convention is still going forward, i have to ask you this and i understand it is a difficult question. how on earth and we have any confidence we have sufficient security at the one like we are having this week when we do not have the answers to the questions we all have about saturday evening? rep. turner: i have called for reassessment of the security plans for both conventions. i think the permit or be enlarged. we were just hearing from your own reporter that the perimeter is being enlarged.

that does make a difference. you can control the space and control aspect -- and control access. dani: you have long served this country with an eye on security. as you look at this moment, how do you judge it to its historical comparisons of fragility and concern for this country? rep. turner: first off, the call for unity is absolutely real and it has been one going on even before this event occurred but it is crystallizing in this event. right now you have biden, who is looking to going it is convention when his party naturally want him to be the candidate, and donald trump going to his convention where his convention will be about why he should be president, why they grapple with whether or not biden should be the candidate. they will be picking him to be the candidate because of his strength, his commitment to this country, and also there'll be a true commit is contrast between biden's failure on the border,

biden's failure on the world stage. and we all saw his staff say why he should not do anything about -- after 8:00. he was short of breath, he misspoke, he misstated things. he is not the candidate of unity. he did not apologize. he took the opportunity to campaign in the middle of the speech it did not offer anybody anything who was not already for joe biden. annmarie: i want to ask you about these blinking lights we keep hearing from the fbi director. for months he has been sounding the alarm that their flashing lights when it comes to potential terror attack or issues at home domestically in the united states. do you see the same concerns? rep. turner: we see the same intelligence. i've said repeatedly i agree with the director. i was very concerned as we go into this final election season that there are foreign nationals

with terrorist ties in our country and what that could mean for the security of both of our conventions and our candidates. i think it is certainly a continuing threat and it goes directly to joe biden's failure of leadership and the fact that our border is open. the director has made it clear the intelligence indicates individuals who are affiliated with isis and international terrorist organizations have made their way across biden's open border. they are in the united states and they pose a risk to americans and our electoral process this year. dani: to be clear some of the threat is coming from inside the house. it is not just immigration, it is domestic terrorism. that is what some of the report show. what needs to change? rep. turner: that pales in comparison to organized terrorists were located in the united states were communicating with outside terrorist groups and organizations who are actively looking at ways to

carry out terrorist acts. that is what the director is saying. those individuals are individuals the biden administration has led across the border. the director has said so. that is the threat and vulnerability that is a risk to our national security directly from biden's policies at the border. dani: are you saying domestic terrorism is not a concern? rep. turner: i did not say that. you tried to diminish the fact that a chosen biden policy that allowed terrorist into our country who are actively a threat to our country is easily comparable to any individual like this shooter, who found his way up on the roof. it is not. you have a director of the fbi running across the country telling everybody we have this strong threat because he is not getting anywhere with the administration. he is not getting the border

closed, he is not getting these people rounded up and identified and arrested and that is why he is telling you. the administration is not recognizing the threat they placed this country in. dani: i'm not attempting to put words in your mouth. i'm only trying to address both issues. in 2025, what you need to see to make it clear that we are not sleepwalking through threats like this? i understand the foreign component. in terms of domestic issues, how someone can get so close to a presidential nominee. rep. turner: we do not know the story of how this kid got here. we do not know how the shooter got on this roof. i am very skeptical that he ended up on this roof having done nothing else in his life that is extraordinary that he would've been able to accomplish this on his own. we will have to see the circumstances that resulted in almost donald trump being

assassinated on the stage in a political rally. that is what the investigation will be. we do not know the circumstances. jonathan: hopefully we get details as that goes on. before you go i want to talk about the bp sweepstakes. i'm sure you have some thoughts and you can offer your opinion. you have a preferred candidate? what would you expect to see in the vice president for donald trump? rep. turner: i would prefer the candidate that donald trump picks. i think donald trump will do an excellent job of putting together his vice president and ultimately his cabinet as he did last time. he has a great focus on what needs to be done to change the direction of this country, to close the border, to address the out-of-control spending resulting in unbelievable inflation, and also to re-instill our stature in the national community as a result of this failed foreign policy of the biden administration. i think he is laser focused and i believe he will pick a great team.

jonathan: thanks for making time with us. fungus been mike turner. -- congressman mike turner, chair of the house intelligence committee. that's get an update on stories elsewhere. dani: goldman -- yahaira: goldman sachs trading power a surgeon earnings. earnings were almost three times better than earnings posted a year ago. all parent alphabet is in tops for its biggest acquisition ever. sources telling bloomberg the tech giant is aiming to buy cybersecurity startup wiz by as much as $23 billion. the acquisition would help google compete with microsoft and amazon in a competitive cloud market. blackrock says the 20-year-old gunman who shot and injured former president donald trump was featured briefly in an ad for the money manager. thomas matthew crooks was one of several students who appeared in

the background of a 20 at and was unpaid. -- the 2022 ad and was unpaid. the ad will be removed from circulation. jonathan: coming up we will catch up with retired secret service agent jeff james. trump's ambassador to switzerland, edward bollen, and jim caron of morgan stanley as global investors ramp up the so-called trump trade. up next, the secret service under pressure. >> there is no way to catch this any other way than there was a security failure. there going to be hard discussions in the secret service and the greater security industry wondering why this happened. jonathan: that is next. live from new york city, good morning. ♪

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jonathan: let's take a snapshot of financial markets. equities positive .4%. small caps outperforming. going into the opening bell. talked so much about this tug-of-war in the bond market. yields drop. then you have these political considerations that started after the debate, which keeps pushing bond yields higher. it happened again. up six on the u.s. 10 year took 4.24. the secret service under pressure. >> there is no way to couch this any other way than a security failure. there will be hard discussions within the secret service and the greater security industry wondering why this happened, to identify the causation, and i would expect the secret service would take traumatic internal measures to make sure this never happens again. jonathan: trump allies and

critics demanding answers from the secret service after saturday's assassination attempt at his rally in pennsylvania. the house oversight committee requesting a july 22 hearing with the secret service director. retired secret service agent jeff james who worked on george w. bush's detail for five years joins us now. thank you for joining us. we have all seen the same map and we have seen a small map and we've asked the same question, how did someone get on that roof and get so close to the former president of the united states? do you think we are looking at the images the right way? jeff: yes and no. we are looking at them in the right way because that is in such close proximity to where the former president was that someone should've had responsibility for that area. ultimately this is going to fall on the secret service. even though the outer perimeter of sites is usually managed by

local and state law enforcement, it is up to the site agent who put all the security together for that site to give clear and direct orders to those people to say this is your field of responsibility. make sure you manage it. this roof is a concern. if you see anyone trying to get up there make sure you stop them. that is one of the ways it is pertinent it is a small map. the weight is not pertinent is when you look at the snippet of map, the shooter, i'm hearing his was -- he was 130 to 150 yards away. our snipers train out to 1000 yards. if you would get out on google maps and stretch out a 3000 foot perimeter, it encompasses other farms to businesses, auto dealerships, there is a lot there they would be looking at. the situation our snipers are in our they are looking at so much land all at once and so much

property all at once that it is tough to see everything at the same time. what i think may have happened and people have been showing me, it looks like the sniper is looking right at the shooter. he might be looking in that direction but he might be looking at something 400 yards beyond the shooter. when people are pointing and saying the guy has a gun, he may have been looking over the shooter to what he perceived as a hiding area for a sniper that may have been 100 yards behind him. then once the bad guy pulls the trigger and gives away his position, the sniper engages him and puts him down. while it is germane in the idea it was so close to the president , you have to understand the entire field of fire for our snipers is almost 10 times larger than that little map everyone is looking at. jonathan: let's put more color on that field. let's put a series of concentric circles and have the stage at the epicenter of those circles. are you suggesting that each

perimeter of those circles, there is a different security force responsible for it? and if that is the sense of things, i want to understand, how do local enforcement work with secret service at an event like that when they are responsible for different parameters? how much communication is there? if you identify a threat, how long before you can communicate with the different enforcement area to make sure that threat can be neutralized? how does that work? jeff: you said the main word. communication. never the president or vice president or candidate go somewhere we set up a command post, and then at each individual site we set up a security room. in that security room there is an agency. butler county police, pennsylvania state police, secret service, and so on. if someone from the state police see something they get on the radio and they say it looks like a guy on arrival -- a guy with

the rifle is on this roof. everyone in the security room will cure it and they will broadcast on their respective frequencies to their people so everyone can be aware of the threat. it is not as streamlined as being able to talk directly to someone, but when you have what was up in butler county that day , probably 100 law enforcement officers from different agencies, finding way to put them on the same frequency is all -- is just about impossible. and you would create a situation where there is too much talk and important transmissions are being blocked. annmarie: call morning i've been grappling with the issues is that resources the secret service do not have or is it protocol. it sounds like from your perspective this might've been a protocol mishap. jeff: we have found out. if that site agent did not give those clear deliberate instructions to the people on the outer perimeter, then that is a protocol -- a flaw in the

protocol. sometimes you are telling people i want you to do general observation. if you see anything that seems unusual, handle it. you see a guy in a heavy coat, make sure you are addressing that. if you see somebody trying to get on a roof make sure you are addressing that. if you have something specific addressed in the weeklong advance you did, like this roof is a big concern for us, you need to make sure you have somebody or a couple people assigned to say this is your field of responsibility. make sure -- and you need to make sure you are clear with your instructions to them that this is your responsibility, take care of it. dani: the house oversight committee has asked for hearing with the head of the secret service. what would you want to hear from her? jeff: i would want to hear exactly what they're going to ask.

what were the manpower requests and where they granted? what was the timeline for the agents who were arriving from out of town and being briefed? all of the things we want to make sure people are getting places in a timely manner to have instructions. we want to make sure the proper number of personnel were there. in my 22 years i do not think i ever worked a site where i felt like we have plenty of people here. there is always holes to plug in you always feel like, even just for the relief of people so people can take a half-hour to get off their feet, it would always be better if you have more people. those will be the big things they will hit her on. the assets, sniper teams, and then they will hit her on personnel. jonathan: is wonderful to hear from you. we should do this again soon. jeff james, retired secret service agent. another question i have. the extraction. that iconic photo that'll be the

front page of newspapers for the rest of this week, should that have even happened? should they have been able to get that photo? we did not know there was another shooter in the crowd. we did not know what was happening at the time. did you get such a clean photo? dani: even before that moment you can hear donald trump being picked up saying let me get my shoes. his pre-much exposed there. annmarie: franklin's says this is the photo voters will remember it when they get inside the voting booth. jonathan: it certainly feels that way right now. equity futures on the s&p firmer .4%. the opening bell about 60 minutes away. ♪

jonathan: 60 minutes away from the opening bell. on the nasdaq up .5. two weeks of gains on the s&p. outperformance on the russell. small caps up something like 6% last week. up another .8% this morning. a note just dropped from citigroup, rate cuts go from if to win to how many. the two your looks like this. i know we are all focused on the weekend and what it might mean for policy changes in the 12 months and beyond. need to talk about the front end

of the curve. 4.4554. citi saying rate cuts go from if to when to how many. we hear from chariman powell later this afternoon. dani: you've talked about the push and pull of caring about politics or economics. today will be instructive in trying to find out which this market cares about more. powell saying rate cuts -- will powell say the same thing? jonathan: the two your unchanged. all of the price action at the longer end. a bit of a snooze for the euro against the u.s. dollar. a theme we have heard through the morning so far from the likes of peter tchir of academy, people starting to question of how people will start thinking about dollar-denominated assets with the chaos taking place politically speaking in this country. dani: it is a real question because dollar strength has been such a dominant trait. weakness in the economy has started to peotter out.

economic weakness, maybe the dollar can start to fall. the bottom line is trump seems more like he will be president. he is someone who does not want a strong dollar. it is this fog of 2025, we do not know. jonathan: have not heard the name tina for a while, there is no alternative. under surveillance, president biden urging unity following the attack on donald trump. he called for an end to political violence and outlined a path forward. it is a word that has echoed across both parties over last 48 hours. unity, unite the country. who is best positioned to do that. annmarie: the other question is how long will that last. biden spoke three times over the weekend. last night oval office address calling for unity but he will get back on the campaign trail and you have to wonder, if they wanted to shine this light on the former president and talk about the fact that he is an

existential threat to democracy, there is one dimension to this campaign. when he gives his interview tonight to lester holt and then when he goes to nevada late afternoon, what is going to be the message? they have to pivot to policies and that will be challenging for this current administration. dani: he is not even running tv ads right now. that speaks to how he is hamstrung in campaigning. in terms of the rhetoric it is important to distinguish what biden and trump are saying to what some people are saying down ballot. j.d. vance saying president biden's rhetoric directly led to the action this weekend. tim scott has had inflammatory rhetoric has put lives at risk. these are vice presidential contenders. annmarie: absolutely. which is why people are starting to think does this weekend change how trump thinks about his vp pick? what did ambassador bolton say? that pit is so important because trump will rely on that person.

ed mills says mike pence was number one when it came to policy. jonathan: i think the pic is important to policy as well. if it is j.d. vance it gets hard to understand how pro-business this administration might be. j.d. vance, uncertain business issues has a lot in common with the likes of elizabeth warren. the party of the paul ryan, kevin mccarthy, there not a lot of them left in congress. if you will put j.d. vance on the top of the ticket i start to question how pro-business this administration will be. annmarie: it was j.d. vance who said the only person effective in the biden administration is lena con, the individual going after all of the i am -- all of the m&a the biden administration has talked about. they wanted to go down heavy on big business. if you have lena kahn lining up

alongside j.d. vance that does not give a picture of the normal establishment for the republican party. dani: to complicate everything is the supreme court. regardless of who he chooses as bp this is a supreme court who has made an issue of deregulation. this is such a complicated issue. jonathan: i went through equity futures and i showed small caps outperforming. there is a continuation of what we saw. i went to the bond market and sell the yield curve steeper. you said straightaway this morning i think you are right, draw a line between what is happening in equities and bonds. put equities to one side. to this move in the bond market, the seven basis move higher that might speak to the weekend event. dani: i'm interested to see how equities continue to react because it does feel like a continuation. we know stock bond correlation has turned negative in a way it usually is not. at the moment it is trading

yields higher and stocks higher. does it rear its head again? could you get a trump 2.0 trait that is bad for bonds and bad for equities? jonathan: have not been able to say this too many times this year. the 30 year yield above the two-year. the republican national convention kicking off in milwaukee today just two days after the assassination attempt against former president trump. trump is set to speak on thursday and announced his pick for vice president before then. joining us now is ed mcmullen, former ambassador to switzerland who helped plan the 2016 republican national convention. fantastic to share this program with you. but me understand your reaction to saturday and how you shake it should -- help me understand your reaction to saturday and how it should help us understand how we approach the convention. ed: i've spoken over the weekend from people i have not heard

from in years, foreign leaders, friends and people all over the country. i think the one thing that is shocking but no surprise is that after 10 years of vilifying and making president trump a dehumanized creature, that is untenable and the public forum of policy. having discussions of policy. this has been the result of seven to 10 years of incessant hammering of the president and creating a person we do not even know. the people who know the president know him to be a dedicated public servant, patriot, someone who loves his country, a businessman, a father, a family man. someone dedicated to the future of making america great again and to demonize the president, to call him hitler's, and to do the things that were done over the past 10 years, to try to put him in prison, these are

politicizing the process in a way americans do not understand where they are living anymore. this has gotten to a point where there needs to be a correction. it is very refreshing to see president biden calling for that correction. the reality lies in the results. i think we are going to see the results over the coming weeks. they have to shift to policy. they have to talk about immigration, they have to talk about taxes, they have to talk about fuel costs, they have to talk about what they've been doing for four years in foreign policy. they cannot survive the comparisons between four years of donald trump and four years of chaos they created. annmarie: we heard from president trump last night and he said the speech i was going to give on thursday was going to be a humdinger. had this not happen this would've been one of the most incredible speeches. it will be a whole different speech now. you have any insight into what

he is planning to say and how it has shifted? ed: i think the president has made very clear that this is a wake-up call for america, that going down the track of putting president trump on the front of the new republic looking as if he is hitler's, calling him an existential threat to the american people and our democracy, these are the things that are untenable and cannot continue. i think the president will address these issues head-on and i think we will hear about the things the president knows to be true in the united states. americans are looking for leadership. they are looking for a return to sanity, peace, freedom, liberty, around the world. i hope and pray the american people will see that president trump is dedicated to making this happen, moving the country forward in this way. i know most have because the results and the polling shows clearly that the american people are responding to the president's message.

that is why we are seeing desperation on the side of the democrats. hopefully they will come around. hopefully president biden's promise for a change in rhetoric , a lowering of the temperature in the public domain and policy debates will happen. the proof will be in the pudding. annmarie: former president seems to be talking about unity and lowering the temperature. that brings me to his vp pick. it would be the right choice to lower the temperature? ed: the people the president has spoken about publicly all our phenomenal candidates. as far as i'm concerned, the best unit is the one president trump is most comfortable with. working four years to continue making america great again, to continuing the agenda that works together as a team to move the country forward. we have a lot of work to do. the president has laid that out very well. the people he has been talking about have been very capable of

standing with him to achieve those goals. we are looking forward to seeing who he has chosen. anyone who tells you they know who he has chosen is lying. the president keeps this decision very close to the vest. he makes this decision and no one else. dani: the other thing that got louder along with the calls of unity are those willing to publicly support trump. elon musk, bill ackman, two conservative billionaires saying they are throwing their weight behind former president trump. people who have stayed on the sidelines or been quiet, not just open up with their support but open up their wallets? ed: i do a lot of fundraising for the president. i've been raising money for him since 2014 when he first decided to run. i've never seen a time where the last two or three months since the new york decision, and now with this assassination attempt, where people have been calling and wanting to figure out how

they can write checks. i've never seen anything like this. we heard that after the nato conference in boston, d.c. that foreign leaders were praying there would be a continuation of the same. i heard very different thing from the foreign leaders calling me over the weekend. presidents of countries, there secretary of state who know this chaos cannot continue in president trump has shown the world that freedom, liberty, and peace is the result of trump making america great again policies. they want that back. annmarie: how concerned is the international community you have cultivated with where we are as a country? the fact we are talking monday morning about an assassination attempt on a former president from over the weekend? how concerned are those individuals you're are talking to about the state of affairs and how toxic american politics has become? ed: surprisingly, toxicity and

politics is not uniquely american. it is going on over the world in the world is changing. the media has changed. the constant discussions on television has changed the way politics runs. i think foreign leaders are very concerned about the freedom and liberty and peace of the world and they know as goes america, so goes europe, so goes the rest of the world. economically, foreign policy, these are serious issues that this administration has got to seriously step back, analyze having to move forward and start talking about the issues. this campaign needs to be out immigration policy, tax policy, economic policy. i hear people saying america's doing just great economically. i live in south carolina. i can take you 50 miles from my home and show you families that cannot put food on the table.

uber drivers until 4:00 in the morning. the economy is not good. the economy is great on wall street. the economy is great in washington, d.c. it is not good in real america. president trump understands this. president trump is the only candidate talking about it honestly and realistically with a solution and a plan and we know in the four years he was president he was successful in achieving peace, freedom, liberty, and a strong economy. jonathan: you need the right team around you. there is a caricature of the individuals who surround the president. the truth of the matter is in from volume one, he was able to attract very smart individuals. i am thinking of lighthizer, i am thinking of rex tillerson. there are some questions about whether he can do the same again

, attract the talent for volume two. what gives you the impression he can? ed: let me dispel that myth. i just returned from a trip to israel with former national security advisor o'brien and i can tell you he is as engaged and willing to serve as ever. he is one of our great foreign policy leaders. economic policy advisors, one of the top economic policy advisors on wall street, we have some of the top talent. i know mr. lighthizer, all of them continued to advise and be a part of the president's team. i do not see any dearth of opportunity to get great talent. i think increasingly more quality talent is serving the role of being an advisor to the president, giving him advice and insight and this is a great thing to see. there is no reluctance on behalf

of quality people to serve. i think most are patriotic americans who know now is the time to serve because the country is calling them and they will reach that call and deliver on that call. jonathan: just to clarify, and mcmullen was on my list as well. former ambassador to switzerland. thank you for your perspective. here is your bloomberg brief. yahaira: shares of retailer macy's plunging in the premarket. the company announcing the board has unanimously determined to end discussions with our cows and brigade. macy's says the talks failed to lead to an actionable proposal. this ends about seven months of talks for arkhouse and brigade to acquire macy's. goldman sachs is appealing its results in the federal reserve latest stress test, which would require the bank to hold more capital. that record according to the financial time.

ceo david solomon said the results do not reflect goldman's efforts to make its business stable. bank executives have argued they already have enough capital and the new rules would hurt birds and businesses. the fed has previously allowed banks to appeal stress test results, though it has rebuffed all challenges. the city of milwaukee is bracing for as many as good thousand people to attend the republican national convention and security effort been taken to new heights after the assassination attempt on former president trump. key venues in the city's downtown like the pfizer forum, panther alina -- firserv forum, panther arena and others -- the city is working with law enforcement from elsewhere to ensure safety. jonathan: up next we will bring you the week ahead. we will get the view of bank of

america and morgan stanley. that is on the others. this is bloomberg -- that is on the other side. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: the opening bell 40 minutes away. every futures positive one third of 1%. quite a week ahead. today we hear from fed chair jay powell. the rnc officially kicking off later. nbc arrogance interview with president biden at 9:00 eastern. -- nbc airing its interview with president biden at 9:00 p.m.. thursday another round of jobless claims and will hear from donald trump. joining us is morgan stanley -- joining us is jim caron of morgan stanley. let's talk about what is been

developing throughout the morning and what has been developing through the last few weeks. the curve is led by the long end. 10's four or five basis points, the 30 year is up five or six. key say this is the trump trade? jim: thank you for having me on the show. we can say this is a reflection of some of the concerns the markets have, potentially of president trump gets reelected up tariffs and tax or fiscal policies could be inflationary. i think the yield curve is reflecting that. it is important to recognize that inflation did come down last week. we had friendly data. the fed is expected to cut rates. i think plays into it. remember that as the fed cuts interest rate in this environment, which i do think we have an inflation backdrop, it is likely to stoke some

inflation concerns going forward. i would attribute some of this to potentially a trump trade and i would also associate some of this with a new baseline view that we do have a higher inflation framework behind us. dani: i have the same question for you but about the equity market. we can put the bond market aside. when you look at s&p futures session up by one third, small caps up .7%, how much of that is a continuation of last week or something about this weekend? >> it has to do with this amazing combination of macro u.s. data where you have inflation moving in the right direction but the economy remains resilient, particularly the labor market. in addition you have a fed policy faction in which they are eager to cut, even though inflation is still above target.

we have to make sure to avoid a harder landing. at the same time fiscal policy is loose. no matter who was elected it is likely to remain loose. it is a perfect combination of ideal developments that are causing risk assets across the board to rise. dani: the dollar is hard to figure out in this environment, which is why a know you concentrate on fx to ask about this economic environment. you have a clear picture and how the dollar unfolds in 2025 with the fog of notches just the economy but politics? thanos: we are bearish on the dollar. this is a another consensus call. we believe fed rate cuts matter much more than cuts by other central banks because they have global implications. if we are in an environment

where the fed is cutting during a soft landing in the u.s. is -- this could also contribute to some dollar weakness. the dollar is overvalued. it is actually at a historically high level. i would argue the impact on the dollar is mixed. a lot depends on policies. you can think of policies like tariffs and tax cuts. you can think of others such as the fact that president trump does not want a strong dollar. the fact that he may make comments against the fed which will weaken the dollar, it depends which of the two will dominate after elections. jonathan: jim caron, is that how you look at the foreign exchange market? jim: clearly there is an interest rate differential component. i agree when the fed starts to move that will have more

influence on the dollar. i also think there is another element influencing the dollar beyond just interest rate differentials. that is the movement in the equity market. one of the things that from a global investor perspective that has been a strong market has been u.s. equities. to the extent u.s. asset prices continue to improve or have the potential or ability to continue to improve, that will attract foreign capital into u.s. assets and that is also going to be a strong point for the dollar. i cannot say i have a strong currency view one way or the other. i think the dollar is roughly going to stay plus or minus a range around these levels. not necessarily a view of that. it rallies a lot more than a necessarily falls. i have a view that u.s. assets will likely still be attractive to the global community and that keeps some strength in the dollar that might not ordinarily

otherwise be there from an economic and fiscal and fundamental perspective. jonathan: that will be an ongoing debate. thanks for being with us this morning. i that we have time for some final thoughts. big week. annmarie: for me it is going to be who donald trump picks as his vice president. that will say a lot about what kind of campaign we see. what does jill biden say tonight? it was supposed to be about age, now it is going to be about unity. dani: historically, these moments of shocks acted as a force of moderation. you have a populace that says stop this. is it that moment now? jonathan: 24 hours away from this lineup. andrew sheets, chris merrimack, and dan greenhouse. a lot to explore with them over the next 24 hours. the team picks it up at 9:00 with matt miller, sonali basak, and katie greifeld. from new york city, this was

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matt: we are looking in markets really running higher. i am matt boesler -- i matt miller. sonali: i'm sonali basak. katie: and i'm katie greifeld. bloomberg open interest starts right now. ♪ katie: all eyes on donald trump -- sonali: all eyes on donald trump. the presidential candidate is defiant. matt: the trump trade getting more momentum as investors boost bets donald trump wins in november. katie: