announcer: this is "bloomberg technology." with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. caroline: from new york and san francisco, this is "bloomberg technology." coming up, full chip coverage. tsmc earnings jump but china risks returns in the sector. ed: plus, more hollywood films

for apple. caroline: a tiktok man and trump presidency. what a roller coaster we are on today. the worst selloff in the chip sector and looking at the stocks, the semiconductor index had its worse yet day yesterday since 2020. today we bounce back up but only by 0.5% and the risks remain about what happens in terms of china u.s. geopolitical he and taiwan, not enough to be pushed back against some key earnings. ed: there was a strange pivot in the market in the nest -- in the last hour. the world's biggest contract chip manufacturer tsmc raised its revenue outlook for the current period to above analyst expectations and they also reined in their capital spending plans which gave everyone confidence, discipline in the midst of uncertainty. there has been lots we have

reported about former president trump's comments about his intentions toward attitude toward taiwan. tsmc being the jewel in the crown of taiwan's technology sector. that has impacted the markets. some choppy trading we are trying to make sense of. caroline: we can make sense of it with our own analysis. we want to talk about the china risks with the biden administration really considering more trade restrictions. bloomberg intelligence with a note saying that this along with donald trump's on comment on defending taiwan or not defending them could be beneficial for regional manufacturers in the u.s.. i am talking intel, global foundry's, you offered us a note. dissect how much geopolitical risk is affecting some of these names that have exposure to china. >> at this point, it is more of

a headline risk rather than a fundamental risk. it is speculative at best. we don't how much to quantify. it is important to understand the run that stocks have had, especially these highflying ai names. it seems like almost nothing but positivity has been priced in. any sort of roadblock seems like a good opportunity for folks to lock in their profits. beyond that, the china risks have been there for the last two years. we have seen sanctions increased over time. any impact in terms of revenue has been one or two key large players that have seen the impacts. in response to this news, most of the sector reacting like it is a headline risk at this point. ed: you note in your research that these are headwinds for fabulous names. the other name is intel.

yesterday we were trying to understand the logic. intel is trying to grow its own business of being a contract manufacturing for a third-party. if something happens politically in china or taiwan, is intel the only alternative, the only name that would benefit directly in that line of business? kunjan: you have to divide the manufacturing world into leading-edge manufacturers and the lacking edge. on the leading edge there are three names that come to the top. tsmc, samsung and intel. intel has skated around leveraging this risk point that something could happen in taiwan or tsmc. we would be your in sourcing champion here in the u.s.. definitely such news benefits them. this is not something quick. you cannot turn off tsmc tonight and take all of the capacity at

intel. in the long term, still increases the risk models that make you favor regional chipmakers. speaking of the lacking edge, we have more options in that area because a lot of u.s. device in fractures have their own capacity. on the leading edge in terms of u.s. and europe. ed: i asked that question because for the second time this week intel is up more than 5% where some of the other names are under pressure. bloomberg analyst kunjan sobhani , thank you. let's bring in amy from stonebridge group and discuss the impact of potential trade curves, expansion and trump on chinese-american relations. the chip sector is absolutely in focus right now. respond to what you heard kunjan sobhani from -- from kunjan sobhani on politics.

amy: i think it is really early to say and that is why we are seeing so much volatility because while we have a sense from trump himself, from his vice president, from his top advisers how he looks at competition with china, the prescriptions that he will use really are unclear to date based on what the biden administration is doing. we are seeing the potential for more curbs on american and non-american semiconductor products, particularly hardware going to support china and increasing its focus on technology self-reliance, a key theme. that is what we are hearing. xi jinping is saying we need more indigenous present -- indigenous innovation and technology to build our own industry because we cannot rely on an uncertain geopolitical landscape given uncertainty in

the united states and in europe, two key suppliers and of course japan of this technology hardware to china. as a resort of that, of course american, european, japanese, hardware providers of china's global semiconductor manufacturing are being pressured to restrict what they are going to continue to sell and service in china. that is where so much of this uncertainty is. the question of how and what are the restrictions, will the united states be successful in negotiating with the dutch and the japanese government to really expand restrictions on what can be provided to china. caroline: how much do you believe that the threats will become reality? how much do you think the dutch and the japanese will curtail servicing technology that already exists in china? amy: i think there will continue to be american industry pressure

. not daylong face those restrictions. u.s. industry does not want to see more research is what they can sell to china if there is not a direct national security concern. they right now are unfairly competing against japanese and dutch companies that are continuing to sell to china. i think there will be more pressure to expand those restrictions. i do not think what we were rumored to be hearing about, that there would be a massive expansion is going to come into play, certainly not in the biden administration. i think there will be incremental steps to restrict certain companies in china from receiving more semiconductor hardware products in the near term. the trump administration is the big unknown. ed: yes. it takes two to tango.

you don't have a crystal ball. if you take dev industry as a parallel example, what china did was large subsidy. do you recognize this willingness from the chinese government to fund their response to any sort of political or geopolitical policy that either administration comes with in november? amy: i think that is the key point. i think the dutch and the japanese are very concerned not just for their companies that are providing technology hardware to china. it is not just their providence. it is china's retaliation. xi jinping has been extremely clear that if a stranglehold on certain high-tech products and services continues, he's going to respond. he is not going to sit idly by and watch those restrictions continue to expand. the dutch, the japanese and the

u.s. government have to think long and hard on the kinds of retaliatory tools china has available right now. for example, restrictions on graphite to japan, something japanese industry desperately needs. my final point would be china has to weigh its retaliation to make sure the retaliatory moves do not harm further an already very shaky economy in china. it does not have the leverage it had a few years ago. caroline: you advise clients about business and policy interests. can you advise us and the audience about taiwan and the sentiment seeming to be displayed by an interview with former president trump that maybe they would not come to taiwan's aid? what does that mean for tsmc and taiwan? amy: the silence coming from taiwan is deafening.

they are not responding to former president trump's bloomberg interview. instead they are choosing to stand by what the platform of the republican party traditionally has been which is to include taiwan and to say that of course the united states and taiwan have a legislatively mandated very strong relationship that does include u.s. provisions to come to taiwan's aid. of course it is up to the commander-in-chief. taiwan authorities must be worried but i will say the worry is probably not severe right now because most of the advisors around president trump including his selection of vice presidential candidate with j.d. vance are very strong supporters of taiwan. within a trump 2.0 administration, there will be

significant conversations around how the united states continues to focus more on asia than europe which is clearly a platform we are starting to hear coming out of the republican convention and what that means for u.s. policy toward taiwan. i would not be so quick to conclude that president trump is going to abandon taiwan in the event of some kind of conflict. that would really be going against traditional u.s. policy, particularly among the republicans. caroline: amy, we thank you, principal analyst at albright stonebridge group. what is so interesting is this volatility in the individual stocks today as we question some of the valuations where we have run to in nvidia and the like. ed: what is so astonishing about the conversation we just had, we did not discuss under the factor which is the ai boom right now -- growth driven by ai manufacturing.

i just wonder, maybe we will talk to jensen about it in a few weeks. geopolitics takes away one market and there are plenty waiting in the wings. i just got it was weird. caroline: you are right. but then goldman sachs top research analyst today currently saying that maybe we need to question the ultimate demand of ai in the longer-term. will it really drive this productivity growth? great story from some of our colleagues today. meanwhile, apple in talks for more films from major hollywood studios. being reported by bloomberg. stick with us. this is "bloomberg technology." oha to olukai golf. waterproof leather. breathable fabrics. hey, nice putt.

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caroline: medianews, bloomberg reporting that apple is in talks with several studios about more films for their streaming service which currently features almost entirely original production. there is a lot going on in poly would. chris -- going on in hollywood. chris brings it down. is there a lot going on right now? chris: we did not report the exact names but you can imagine some of the big folks whether it is universal, warner brothers, disney, all of those players. apple tv originally had a strategy to focus on high quality original programming. it has had some for sure hits, ted lasso, "the morning show."

it is not as watched as some of the other big players. their film slate, they made a $1 billion commitment to make original movies and put them first in theaters as well. hollywood applauded but they have had more than their share of duds. big action movie, $200 million, "fly me to the moon," nice movie but not really burning it up. this is a shift in strategy to try to get more library content there and build the audience for apple tv. ed: that is probably what netflix has. i was watching "world of warcraft" which was a 2016 film. i will not get by -- give my review. netflix has this endless catalog. how much. volume will apple have to put into this to fight back? chris: numbers on apple are

scarce. harder to come by than other operators. we are seeing -- their words originally this theory that all of these streaming services would have their own content and that has completely broken down. we have shows on multiple streaming services and tv outlets. in a way it makes it easier for consumers to find stuff. it does devalue the exclusivity of the programming. caroline: what continues to hurt his legacy tv. you were out with an fte reporting that maybe warner brothers discovery is thinking of splitting up streaming from tv. why? chris: stock prices are in the dumps. just a really terrible performer. they put these two companies together with big plans to beef up the streaming business.

it just does not work. the ceo acknowledge that this month. the industry will need more consolidation. whether this split up is the way to do that, getting a lot of skepticism from analysts. the traditional tv networks, although they are declining, tnt, cnn, they are still cash generators. the studio and streaming business are not making as much money and need the money to invest in new programming. with $40 billion or so in debt on the books, how that will rationalize itself is very difficult to figure out. that's why analysts are skeptical that this is the route. the stock is up because people are applauding that the company recognizes it needs to do something different. ed: something to think about. chris, thank you very much. coming up, a look at either

etf's and the battle between issuers that is already starting. that is coming up next. this is "bloomberg technology." every 3 minutes a child orn with a cleft condition. in the u.s., children are healed at birth. but in parts of the world where the right medical care doesn't exist, children like nezifa suffer severe social stigma because of their cleft lip. children like lexi struggle to speak and babies like cesar face malnutrition or worse. without surgery, some will die. children born with cleft conditions have nine times the risk of dying before their first birthday. those who do survive face extreme challenges. imagine not being able to eat, speak or live life to your fullest. imagine becoming an outcast even in your own family.

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or call that' s. caroline: time for talking tech. the advertising agency publish stronger growth as revenue grows 5% to 6%. the company announced earlier this year that it would attempt to strengthen its data analysis in an effort to combat the slump in the advertising industry. india's infosys expects revenue to grow 4% through march 2025 because of silent crimes and

gradually increasing tech spend signifying a resilient growing economy. the battle for potential ether etfs is underway. issuers including blackrock and invesco already coming forward with how much or how little they will charge respective ether etfs. ed: let's dive more into that with isabel lee. it ranges from 0.2% fee to 2.5% fee on the grayscale. that one has no conditions attached. what does all of that mean? what does that tell you. isabel: this has been going on for a while in this competitive space because theoretically the lower your feet, more attractive it will be to issuers. yesterday it was important because a lot of issues filed an f1. they range from 19 basis points to 25. that is very cheap. grayscale is on the higher end

at around 2.5% but that is an exception because they are trying to convert their trust into an etf but all that to say these funds are priced at such a low fee, a lot of them have conditioned. blackrock will have a partial waiver in the first year. several said that in the first six months it will be free. issuers learned their lesson because during the bitcoin etf, a lot of them really just lowered and lowered as each day passed and even canceled leading up to the launch. for now, they were already cheap in the first get go. caroline: i don't know if they did learn their lesson because they are cheap again, they are waiving fees and seeing you can be free for six months but perhaps what they are also anticipating his lesson flows this time around. the problem is you could stake it if you are not putting in an etf. isabel: we were effecting a $4 billion to $5 billion launch. blackrock hauled in one billion

in the first four days. we could see $16 billion in total for the cohort. to your point, why would they buy an ether etf? it is a harder sell. the participants really want it for staking. having it in a trust or a fund is questionable for others. the demand is less. also those who want crypto exposure already guided in january. it is bitcoin, the biggest, most stable and most established. why put your bid on something smaller? ether his kind of the leader -- ether is kind of the leader of the altcoin world. we already have the solana filing. caroline: ultimately the question around solana's what does the s.e.c. view it as. the s.e.c. is not comfortable that ultimately is not a security if you are able to put

it aside and raise funds and yield on it. isabel: a lot of issuers already raise congestions and remove staking because it raises a question of security. they have to compromise on a lot of things. if you ask the bulls, they are just happy they will be an etf out there. it is a major milestone in the crypto industry, the second milestone. there are pros and cons. it is definitely a landmark if you think about it. caroline: slowly but u.s. is catching up with europe. isabel: canada. caroline: and canada, well said. isabel lee as we look to that etf going live. what else do we have going? ed: we will be joined by precision co-founder teddy goff. looking at shares of nokia, telecom's market participant, my first ever cell phone, down more

than 5% in finland. they just posted their lowest quarterly sales figure owing back to 2015. it is competitive out there. it is a tough market in 5g and telecom. stay with us. this is "bloomberg technology." the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate.

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caroline: welcome back to bloomberg technology. ed: a very quick check on the markets, the big picture. the nasdaq 100 is at a session low down .8%. it has been an interesting week four days and. the last 24 hours on a two session basis, the nasdaq 100 is on its best run for a two day drop. a lot of that was the businessweek interview with

president -- with former president trump. and now it is the mega caps leading declines. we saw a lot of those names are moving to the downside and a lot of lingering themes. i am just focusing on that because honestly the trading where you see the little bit on the far left-hand side of the screen has been hard to gauge. this one kind of news story that has been moving, shares of the ray-ban maker are popping on a report that meta is exploring a state in the company. it follows an existing collaboration between the two to produce smaller -- smart glasses that take pictures and play music. on the last earnings carl -- call mark said that the partnership will help them serve customers looking to use wearable ai with a variety of designs. we will get more information on

the progress when the company reports results at the end of the month. i think zuckerberg gave us a little bit of a hint that makes the story out not this -- not that much of a surprise. caroline: we will see how that evolves. let us just take with social media because what is the probability now of a tiktok ban if donald trump wins the white house? some analysis has been done crunching the numbers and i am pleased to say that we are joined by mandeep singh who went through the tea leaves of what was being written in the story, that interview with former president trump. and ultimately it feels like he is less against tiktok but because of meta and u.s. companies. mandeep: his views are pretty clear, even though he has changed since his time in the white house to where he is now. at least he said it clearly that he does not want to ban tiktok.

because his ratings have gone up where the internet environment every day the pole readings -- poll readings are changing's. the market is reading like he is against a ban even though the law has passed. clearly the market is saying otherwise because meta has gone down and snapchat has gone down and the stocks have reacted and looked, he is driving the campaign through tiktok. trump is on social media and tiktok. that is the one thing you have not expected. he is getting a lot of donors from tiktok. and you know those promoters are probably on tiktok and so he can appeal to them by saying we are not banning the platform anymore. caroline: truth social and tiktok, who would it affect the most in terms of user figures if

indeed tiktok stays around, as it meta or others? mandeep: the initial analysis says -- has one third of u.s. adult users and 60% of people under the 30 age group and they spend almost 80 minutes a day. caroline: where do they have the time? mandeep: they apparently do. but if tiktok was banned, then snapchat which will have a lot of short videos and youtube shorts and instagram reels are the three that will benefit the most because 80 minutes to get split into wherever people can split their time. even netflix because at the end of the day it is a zero-sum game. caroline: they are not going to talk to people in real life. mandeep: that is where they consume their news and content so they will spend time on social media and the question is where do they find it. ed: this is your research and it focuses on tiktok, you know that

the public comments by former president trump about his logic that if they ban tiktok it opens the door to meta and its wide range of cub -- of properties all-encompassing. it also shows you how the sausage is made at the next research coming to you is the risk from meta if trump were to end up in the right house. -- white house. ed: the antitrust risk is there especially for meta considering it owns three of the most popular websites where people spend the most of their time. there has been that concern against any of those platforms. clearly meta is the most exposed. i still think that when it comes to trump, there is always volatility and uncertainty, even the psmc comments, all of silicon valley supported him and now you hear those comments. there is always uncertainty

associated with president trump. it could change. opinions could change a few months after he gets reelected. caroline: if he does indeed. mandeep singh, thanks you so much. maybe it is not just the words of donald trump but his new running mate that are being passed. j.d. vance and his ties to silicon valley drawing praise from some of the community. take a listen. >> i had a fantastic experience. i worked for him when he was just starting out. he is going to good for the country and silicon valley because he is progrowth and innovation. he is also pro eliminating those regulations that strangle industry and growth. caroline: let's get the take of the cofounder and managing partner of the strategy and marketing agency precision and you are also the director of president obama's reelection

campaign. and i want to get your take on what it means to have potentially a venture capitalist in the white house. how much do you think there will be real changes to policymaking for innovation for small companies? teddy: well, thank you for having me. the most important thing is if there is a change or not. obviously as you are talking about, when it comes to former president trump and potentially future president trump there is a degree of uncertainty and palace intrigue. it is not clear that his vice president will not have much influence over him. his first vice president did not. it will be broadly good for much of the tech industry if j.d. vance becomes vice president. he is of that community or at least in the past few years of his career. he shared some of their interests with respect to deregulating ai and cryptocurrency. it is worth keeping in mind that the tech industry is

non-monolithic and there are deep divides within the industry. and i definition the republican party is not in lockstep on all of those issues. when it comes to deregulation, tax policy, ai and cryptocurrency there is some degree between what j.d. vance wants and what much of the ticket wants. when it comes to privacy and competition, they are going to be at odds. i think this will be good for the tech industry in certain waves and -- ways and bad in others. ed: let us talk about tiktok. you heard man deep outline a -- mandeep singh outline a thesis. not just as a means of political communications but appointive policy. how much does the american voter care about tiktok and what might or might not happen. 170 billion americans use tiktok and any of them use it quite like it.

i find that interesting. it is a world you know and i wonder how critical you think it will be in this cycle. teddy: the reality is that we are a country where you have two options as to who to vote for and you have dozens of issues upon which to assess the options. it is difficult for any individual issue to change people's minds, even abortion might not be a decisive issue as is dominant as it is. that being said, elections tend to be won on the margins. there are a lot of young people who do not want tiktok taken away. it might impact some of their votes, but they are looking at all of these issues in this unquote -- unprecedentedly deep divide between the two parties. i do not think this would be this is the one issue that gets them from one side to the other. if there is it will benefit trump because these young people

who love the tiktok do not want to taken away and he is one guy saying it is good. caroline: also using it. as a digital director in a formal life -- former life, how much should you be leaning into the social media spectrum and how much do you have to be thinking about artificial intelligence muddying the way in which individuals consume that content? teddy: i think every candidate has to be on social media. i think putting to the side whether you do or do not assess tiktok as a national security risk and that is a tough thing the side, it is a critical communications platform. it is where almost america's young people spend a huge amount of time. they are not there for news but they will get it while they are there and more broadly then political but they will get cultural information. what they will think about the cultural wars writ large. democrats and republicans have

to play there. the truth of the matter is that no individual account will be able to get that much traction. that is not how the platform works and there is too much content and too much people spending too much time. the question i think is more broadly than just one account, how can political movements generates a lot of voices that can accrete to lots of eyeballs on the point of view. ed: you advised obama on his reelection. the assassination attempt shows the risk of social media and the spread of misinformation. does either campaign have a handle on how to use it safely? teddy: my opinion is that one of the two campaigns have no interest in using it safely and i do not want to, cross as hyper-partisan. but the truth of the matter is that this information is really hard to counter.

and there has been a lot of academics research and lots of political and corporate experiments done. you can try fact-checks, warnings and all the various sort of disinformation mitigation techniques. the fact of the matter is it is still powerful and once it is out there it tends to sink into people's minds and just make people question what is and is not true. the consequence is that they tend to believe things that are true that they want to and disbelieve things that they do not want to. there might not be great ways to counter individual pieces of misinformation. what you have to do is get your story out there as best you can. keep playing whack-a-mole with different pieces but they are too hard to counter. you must have the most forceful and proactive message that you can and obviously hope that that

is enough to overcome the effects of the disinformation that you will have a tough time countering. ed: we are out of time. thank you. coming up we will be joined by the founding partner of the berkeley skynet to discuss the future of silicon valley and global startup culture. coming up next. ♪

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caroline: this is bloomberg technology and you are looking at a live shot of the principal room. check out our podcast and you can find it on the terminal, spotify, and i hard. this is bloomberg -- iheart. this is bloomberg. ed: for today's vc startup -- spotlight let us talk about startup culture. we have the founding partner at the -- partner at the sky deck

fund, uc berkeley's largest and most prominent accelerator. we are familiar in san francisco or san francisco. and, we are familiar with stanford grads going into tech. let us start with what we are less familiar with what berkeley is doing, but it is massive the volume of startups you are founding and supporting. chon: i am extremely excited to hear and share more about what we are doing. matt berkeley let we have come to -- at berkeley what we have come to realize is that we have a different platform than you expect. you would think an incubator is meant to bring out the technology and talent from campus. six years ago we had this amazing insight is that we want to turn our entire ecosystem into a giant platform to build

companies in general. our doors are open to founders around the world. not only inviting our own students but folks from europe and beyond. caroline: interesting. put that into context for the amount of companies that are being birthed, and where they are going on to. because the statistics are really pronounced. chon: i think that is exactly right. early-stage investment is a really challenging thing to do. we have 4000 plus companies that are choosing to apply to us every single year. we are an extremely exclusive program. only 1% of the 4000 are being picked. of the 40 that we invest in, 20 are raised from institutional investors. only 10 go on beyond.

we have a giant portfolio and what we see are the huge wins. ed: we talked about the combinative batch because they made it mandatory to be in person in san francisco for that class onward. do you have any similar war -- similar rules. you talked about attracting talent to the bay. what is the point of attraction? chon: let us talk about why a founder wants to come to us as opposed to one of the other brands that you have talked about. berkeley is all about giving them introductions the ecosystem through our graduates, students, loans and faculty. when they are in person here the exposure that they get to the top corporates and investors is unheard of. what we ask is that they are

here in person for most of the six months. they live and work here and a lot of cases they move their families here. caroline: let us just talk about the wins and what industries they are shaking up. i'm going to take a wild guess that artificial intelligence is prominent in some of the current intake. chon: you reckon fully right. what we have seen from venture as a category is that ai is changing all of our lives in an amazing way. it is a disruption and when you are a vc, you want to invest in industries and products that change all of our lives over the next 10 years. we are extremely excited about all of the products that will come out in the category. two years ago we were very early to the game. about 10% or so of our portfolio back in 2022 that category. 2024, 90% are in ai.

caroline: it is great having some time with you. the founding partly -- partner of the vertically sky deck fund. meanwhile, indian mobile content provider is an advanced talks to raise money in a funding round led by google. the fundraiser has not been finalized. it would increase the most populated -- there bets in the most populated country. ed: openai just launched the latest model. a smaller and cheaper version of gpt-4o. we have all the details next. ♪

caroline: today another announcement from openai, the debut of gpt-4o mini. it is a smaller -- it is both smaller and cheaper. it is basically replacing the old one. let us bring in seth for more. yay, cheaper and smaller. is of the race to being the most accessible at the moment? seth: this is not some great new model. it almost feels like smart phones with a wider range of

smartphone tears. this is the developers who might not mean -- you might not need the largest language models. it will not change the world at the moment with a breakthrough. ed: when i hear gpt-4o mini, and i go straight to ipod mini. openai always introduces these latest models. people get early access to it sometimes journalists and developers. have we got any feedback on how it is working and what it can do? seth: a couple companies got access and it is being used to go through receipts and pullout actual information or help respond to emails. this is going to feel a bit iterative. we have not personally used it and it is important to note that this is a smaller version of a model that is largely not released yet. the most high-profile features

like the ability to process audio and video information are not out there because they are working through safety issues. they are -- this is a smaller version of a largely unreleased model. caroline: there was a lot of backlash after the previous announcement. where are we on all of this? seth: we are waiting for them to sort through it. they have change the voice but they are doing a red team safety review of the larger model. our understanding with the smaller one is that it will have many of the same features but as it stands it is a work in progress. caroline: thank you for joining all things. the numbers and names keep evolving. meanwhile we will check in on the market because we are taking another hit today. ed: end of the show but the nasdaq 100 is down almost a percent. going back to october of last year. the recurring themes, comments to businessweek, concern about

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