about a lot. my focus will be on north carolina and georgia. i assume that is the direction they will go. >> typically, you would want to roll out something like this as soon as you can following your opponent's political convention. the rnc is behind us. trump and vance are already traveling together. how sure does the ticket need to be before chicago or will be running mate be decided there? >> i do not think it needs to be sure at all. think of trump announcing j.d. vance on monday of the convention. the delegates will be meeting with the committee and those groups. you do not need to have a nominee for a while. trump is at high numbers in the polls well above where he has been all year leading by five or six points in some states. of all the names we listed on

the short list for v.p., almost none of them have name recognition above 50%. there is going to be a tremendous focus on the seismic event because it is so massive to the process of democracy. that will naturally attract eyeballs. we will see massive name recognition shift the polls materially. my expectation is we start off at a deficit. i will treat trump as an incumbent. i want to see kamala above trump by three or four points in swing states to think she could reasonably win them. that will be the strategy. i think polling will move a lot in the next few weeks. tom: henrietta, you and terry have been great about that. i'm really interested in what the polls show. henrietta treyz, thank you so much for being with us. joe mathieu and david gura and

tom keene with a special edition of "bloomberg surveillance." let's listen thursday to the vice president. >> if donald trump were to win in november, he will continue to sell out working families. he will continue to attack reproductive freedom. and he will continue to undermine our democracy. tom: the vice president of the united states, on this very special sunday, that was done a few days ago. it is amazing how the dialogue in three days is completely different. i wonder where we will be wednesday. david: it has been minute by minute for several weeks since that debate in atlanta. very good point. it will be interesting to see how the contours of the campaign trail change for republicans going forward. tom: joe mathieu, your thoughts

as we move towards your "balance of power" at 5:00? joe: we heard from j.d. vance a short time ago. this is the latest since the decision. joe biden has been the worst president in my lifetime and kamala harris with him every step of the way. this will be the message that nothing has changed. remember what we talked about in milwaukee. this is the same person with a different name. wait for her to show up at the debate with donald trump. the line for the republican party is what you see here is the same as what you had. we just beat joe biden. now we have to do it again with kamala harris. david: i look back at the interview bloomberg businessweek did with donald trump. i think they asked him what difference it would make if the nominee was not going to be joe biden and what he said is the campaign is the same, the plan

is the same. it will be fascinating to see if that is true as we move ahead. tom: joining us on bloomberg television, radio, and youtube is the most important person for us in washington. margaret collins takes care of me in washington and gets me through the day and herds cats. running the news bro is the worst job -- news bureau is the worst job. margaret collins joins us. i can remember times when massachusetts surprised me on the edge of a purple state. from your reporting and all the sources you have at our washington news bureau, when you assume purple states

became more purple this afternoon? >> it remains to be seen. sitting here in the washington bureau with colleagues like great joe mathieu and you when you are visiting, it is an historic day in washington. there are still several months to go. your coming off the republican national convention in milwaukee where republicans are feeling like the map really opened up over the last few weeks after biden's disastrous debate. now we are talking about states being in play like new hampshire and virginia. it is going to be interesting to see where the polls land the next several days now that trump will no longer be running against biden. you have a younger candidate, you can have a woman candidate. i think it will change the landscape for sure. tom: joe mathieu, there are

important congresspeople and then there is the most important congressperson for president biden. joe: the man who would run him, jim clyburn making it official endorsing kamala harris with a lengthy statement that begins with a lengthy paragraph talking about the honor and privilege of calling joe biden a friend but it ends with the endorsement, i echo the good judgment he demonstrated selecting vice president harris and support her to succeed him as the nominee for president. peggy collins, this is a big moment with the democrats supporting kamala harris. they are probably breathing a sigh of relief. is the idea of a contested convention off the table? >> i do not think it is off the table but signs are a number of

key democrats including the clintons are endorsing harris. the current seems to be going in her direction without any big names that have been talked about coming out yet to challenge. they do not have a lot of time left before the democratic national convention starts on august 19. the question of whether the party can hold together the kind of canada between now and then is critical. joe: i think of the old hemingway quote slowly and then all at once. at the beginning, there was a handful of congresspeople that suggested joe biden should drop out. that began to build the last few days. that has gotten us to this moment. what is your perspective on the timing? we have a few weeks to the convention. 107 days to the election. what took the president so long?

how much does that set the democratic party back? it is, had covid and was in delaware fighting through that and thinking through all of this. what you think about how long it took since the debate performance? >> as you mentioned, the debate performance june 27, working through the july 4 we can because cracks were showing -- weekend because cracks were showing. he went through the presser but did not knock it out of the park. it was ok after the nato meeting. the past week the mountain of pressure kept building with more people coming out, even while the republicans were convening in milwaukee, and even after the attempted assassination, certain key people came out and called for the president to step aside in the race.

when you think about the last time this happened in 1968 with l.b.j., he surprised the nation saying he will not seek reelection. i think biden was trying to hold on and stay in the race. ultimately, the pressure broke the dam and he had to make the announcement over twitter because he is dealing with covid in rehobeth beach. it is not the way they want to do it. think he was fighting to the bitter end to hold on. joe: he will explain his decision more in the coming days. what do you expect in terms of presentation, any sense of how that will mirror what we got from l.b.j. in 1960? >> we think it would likely be from the

white house. one of the themes would be democracy. that is something he hammered and on before the midterms a couple of years ago and had a lot of resonance. he has said he feels like this is an election where democracy is on the line. we also expect him to note a couple of key achievements, the huge infrastructure spending bill he got through and then the inflation reduction act that has a lot of future spending on things like energy efficiency, electric vehicles which republicans have attacked. we think he will harken back to where he started and what he wanted to do when he first became president. joe: what do you think of the fact this rolled out on twitter?

is joe biden not physically well enough to address the american people? should this be an oval office address? tom: you asked the delicate question. i thought of that driving in. thank you for asking that. >> i think covid is 100% a factor. he was not looking good last week when he announced he had covid and was going to isolate. we are on a sunday going into a week where markets will open. they did feel with the mountain of pressure that they needed to make a decision and could not leave it hanging in terms of what was good for the party. i do not think this is the ideal scenario for how they would have liked to do it. he is still recovering from covid and cannot do a public address the way they might have wanted. tom: peggy collins, thank you for you and your team's effort

in washington. there is a view from 1600 pennsylvania avenue. it is a different view on this sunday afternoon. joe: great to have you with us here for your perspective as well. maybe i can put to you a variation of the question that i asked peggy. what has it been like in recent days to this moment charting the president's state of mind in rehobeth beach? what finally convinced him from your reporting that this was the decision he had to make? >> he has been under relentless pressure from allies, even after he was diagnosed with covid last week, you saw at least a dozen other democratic lawmakers come out. it appears the pressure became unbearable. it is still surprising. biden has been a stubborn guy

throughout his career. weeks prior, it seemed like the pressure was only causing him to dig in further. perhaps with covid at home with family and close advisors, they were able to reflect and see a path to victory against donald trump tenable. david: go ahead, joe. joe: sorry. what happens with the meeting with benjamin this week? some thought that might be a reason for him to postpone a statement like this. does he still plan to meet with the prime minister? >> there is a lot of uncertainty so i do not want to say anything definitively. we have not heard it is rescheduled. the president did indicate in his statement he will serve out his term. an official act like meeting with the leader of official would seem to stay on the schedule. we do not know for sure at this time. tom: a delicate question.

how is mrs. biden, the first lady? has there been any reporting this afternoon? the family, in general. has there been any reporting on that? >> it has been hard to figure out the reaction. this has to be a painful moment for the biden family. joe biden spent five decades in washington working toward the goal of becoming president. he finally achieved that in 2020. he accomplished a lot and helped defeat donald trump. his presidency is going to end in one term amid recriminations from democrats to get out. tom: what will you do tomorrow? i am fascinated by you people in the grind of this. what do you expect you will do tomorrow? >> i think we will be trying as

hard as we can today and tomorrow to figure out how the decision came to be and what happens next. is there going to be a fight? are other people going to intro the race to become the democratic nominee? tom: thank you so much. across bloomberg television, radio, and youtube, thank you for the huge response. humbled by you across the nation and worldwide tuning into this historic moment for the nation. david: joe has to get ready for the cross-platform special at 5:00. we do have an emoji retweet from dr. joe biden putting two parts above the statement the president made. we know this has been a difficult decision not just for

the president but his family as well. we have seen the family circle around him at camp david, the white house, and rehobeth bea ch. tom: i look at the political reporting. i am learning. david gura, pro, joe mathieu pro. which race is joe mathieu looking at after this historic sunday? joe: i think i have to go to ohio with sherrod brown came out ahead of the announcement. it was a for the senator from ohio to call on joe biden to drop out of the race, clearly

feeling desperation as he goes into a race he may lose. i hate to be a broken record. i have to go back to the fact we have not seen anything but letterhead today. there will be a big conversation tomorrow morning. republicans will drive this. where is the president? he has a bilateral meeting three days from now with benjamin netanyahu. do we not get a photograph for the newspaper? nothing today to tell us the president is well enough to continue doing his job? i think that is an important answer that needs to be figured out before running mates. david: that is absolutely true. that gets to what the lame-duck presidency looks like. he is in a tricky position. now there is this netanyahu visit later this week. marquis moments in the presidency are coming up.

i think it will be interesting to see if we see or hear from him today, in the coming days, what insight we get from him. this takes a little of the oxygen out getting the letter, but how does he convey this decision to the american people? it will be of great historical import. we have been talking about the l.b.j. speech. tom: what did you learn in milwaukee? joe mathieu and kailey leinz listened to all 90 minutes of the president's speech. they watched every single moment. they watched every country artist. they earned it. joe: and kid rock. tom: what did you learn in milwaukee that moves forward after this historic sunday? joe: i think the only thing anyone learned in milwaukee is it is still the same trump rate there were questions if we would get something different.

when the applause for peter navarro fresh out of prison died down, trump was up talking about hannibal lector and all of the things we have been hearing so long. tom: from your reporting, will vice president harris go after that discourse of the former president? joe: 100% yes. let's see how it plays in the public sphere. the romp she had in north carolina at the podium was a successful speech. find out where she will be a month from now on the campaign trail and how effective she will be in the september debate. david: that is so critical and gets back to something i said a few minutes ago. we have seen her out there

recently. what will she be like as a campaigner? i go back to what i heard from senior democrats. they want someone to make a cogent defense of policies going forward. they now have somebody who is able to do that and have been doing that. she will now do it with greater visibility. tom: thank you for your tireless effort. "balance of power" with joe mathieu on this historic afternoon. cap 5:00, we continue our coverage -- at 5:00, we continue our coverage forward as we get reaction across america's political spectrum on the president who steps aside. david gura and tom keene, and joining us now the gentleman

from new hampshire joins us. ok, i guess we do not have greg yet. david gura, i'm going to go right to you. chicago to me is a mystery. one of the early moments of the summer was jim bianca saying there would be protests. david: we knew there would be protests at the convention. i think up until this moment, there was a sense that there would be protests. we will see the degree to which that manifests now with what has happened today. well that we have seen it leads me to believe it will be a

calmer convention than many expected. there was the expectation it would be fractious and fragile. we have to see if anyone comes out and says i am interested in challenging kamala harris for the presidential nomination. if that does not happen, i think we could see a vote of four kamala harris to be the democratic nominee. that would lead to a much more successful convention in chicago than many expected. tom: look at the picking of her vice president now, why not? there is no time compression. this is a nation turned upside down. give her a week and pick someone. joe: we are not that far from the chicago convention. i think we will see her meeting with a number of rumored candidates to be that running

mate. i go back to atlanta where i covered the debate. gavin newsom came out and was swarmed by reporters. the same was true for others. he has had all of these names campaigning for him, raising money for him, that is going to be crucial. if she is the nominee, she will have vantage into how they are campaigning, what they are saying, new insight into how she might work with them. she has some time. we are weeks away from the convention. that gives her ample time to pick someone the way president trump did milwaukee. tom: how presidents act. sheila jackson lee personifies the progressive vote.

how does vice president coalesce the progressive vote to bring in others into the democratic party? joe: i will pay respects to sheila jackson lee, passing away this weekend. it is a very good question. i think a lot of progressives in the democratic party were upset with joe biden exclusive of all of this. it is incumbent on kamala harris if she is the nominee to reengage with that part of the democratic party. i do not think they are automatically alienated from her. i think the democratic party sees this as a chance to start fresh. i see david axelrod saying the election your changed in a dramatic way as a result. i think that is what democrats are counting on. they will get the reset they wanted.

they want to kick things off in earnest. tom: in 12 hours, i will get a note over the transom from greg. and i, like all of washington, will read four or five blistering paragraphs linking investments with what we have. in the final three minutes we have with you, greg vall iere, what will you write tomorrow? >> i will write that the democrats have a chance. they have a young, aggressive candidate. i think this is a jolt of adrenaline the democratic party wanted. the comments from donald trump were so tone deaf and so ungracious that i think a lot of people view him as part of the problem rather than part of the solution.

david: i look at what we have seen from members of congress, the house, the senate, governors as well. they follow the formula we have seen from political consultants advising the president to step aside. there is a paragraph or two acknowledging the contributions joe biden has made to this country over his lifetime of public service. i go back to the question earlier. how long does he marinate in that? how soon do we jump into the new campaign in earnest? >> i think we are there now. it will be apparent in the next few weeks, the next few days. i got a kick out of the speaker saying maybe this was not kosher. he does not have a call on this. it is not his call. i'm sure the republicans are stunned. they were expecting a landslide. i have to tell you the chances of a landslide have diminished greatly. this will be a much closer

election then people thought just a few days ago. tom: who is her best selection as vice president? >> i have thought about this a lot. it has got to be mark kelly of arizona. astronaut, crucial state, moderate democrat. mark my words, mark kelly is going to get a lot of consideration. he brings a lot to the table. tom: somehow, i think we will do this tomorrow. mark valliere will publish tomorrow morning. we welcome all of you across this nation. arizona, and it is a swing state. dave: mark kelly an interesting name floated. we will see what happens. the campaign officially renamed

harris for president. we got the filing. this letter is to inform you by president harris is now candidate for president in 2024. tom: this is bloomberg television, bloomberg radio, and on youtube as well. nationwide, this is bloomberg. ♪