tom: i'm tom mackenzie in london, this is "bloomberg daybreak europe." inflation optimism, asian stocks extend wall street's rally after a soft reading on u.s. factory prices adds to hopes for a rates cut.

the fed warns they want more data before easing. we were preview today's key cpi print. stepping aside, japan set to get a new prime minister after the prime minister says he will not run for a second term as leader of the ruling ldp. ubs posts higher-than-expected profit in the second quarter as net income hits $1.1 billion, smashing the estimates. we will bring you the details. ♪ tom: a massive beat from ubs in the last 50 minutes, net income coming in above 1.1 billion in the second quarter, double the estimates of $520 million.

ubs said we know this is crucial to investors still targeting up to $1 billion of share repurchases in 2024. it is reaffirming their plans around capital returns in 2024 saying they have that resilience on the balance sheet. ubs on track to reach profitability levels pre-swiss credit merger, and they see that momentum continuing into the third quarter and flows into the wealth management business as well of above $20 billion u.s., the ubs top line is a significant beat coming through. at 7:00 a.m. we will speak to the ubs ceo on those earnings. we are getting more details. let's check in on the markets. as the rally in the s&p rose announced and the nasdaq, the s&p, the fourth longest straight

days of gains for the s&p. that is this year, think about that, given the selloff we saw this time last monday. the nasdaq putting in gains of 2.7%. -- the nasdaq putting in gains of 0.27%. cpi is the data point of the day, and inflation data out of the u.k. the ftse 100 pointing to gains of 20 points, up 0.3%. s&p futures taking a breather after that four day rally, taking a breather. let's flip the board, treasuries, the last time i checked they were flat after the gains yesterday on softer inflation. raphael bostic needs more data to see they are ready to cut pushing back on views and expectations. 3.93 on the two-year, let's

watch sterling leading up to the inflation print. $81 on brent, up 0.5%. gold at 2,461. let's crossover to sing apore. avil: --avril: there is a lot going on in this part of the world. we were waiting to see whether asian stocks would react the same way that we saw on wall street to the soft u.s. ppi and a downward surprise on the cpi, but we also had data out of china showing bank loans to the real economy contracted for the first time in 19 years, and that cemented the concerns about week domestic demand, negative sentiment in the stock markets. then this morning we got the news lines about fumio kishida

out of japan and how he will be stepping aside. this throws up political uncertainty because there is no clear consensus on who is next in line for the top job, and amidst all this it is a bad and tricky to me because the doj governor is set to face parliament not long from now. he will face the heat related to that hawkish rate hike from last month, and what it did to fuel the onslaught in japanese equities last week. there is a lot to digest, and we saw on the nikkei a knee-jerk reaction, and flip to declines. let's take a closer look on where this left the japanese currency. the key reaction to the news, but do not forget the fundamentals for the dollar-yen is at stake here after that hawkish rate hike. the deputy governor came in with comments to smooth things over

and reduce expectations. that sent the yen weaker. this is where we are on dollar-yen. let's flip the board again because darby and said in focus and economist were not expecting a rate cut but that is what we got against the backdrop of a slowing economy hoping to cool inflation. this decision came as a surprise because as recently as may, the expectation was there could be further rate hikes, and even into the second half of next year is when we would potentially see those rate cuts or this is something markets were not expecting. we saw boost of bonds and what was really surprising was how governor said a 50 point basis reduction was considered on the table, and that sent the kiwi dollar declining more than 1%.

tom: quite significant on the asian markets. japan back in focus as well. back to the swiss bank, reporting net income doubled analyst estimate, $1.14 billion. i'm joined from zurich for reaction to these numbers. what was driving the upside for ubs this quarter? why such positive results? >> good morning, yes, it is a solid quarter and profit was about doubled. what analysts expected, one of the main drivers, the really solid points of this result was the delivery on its promise to bring ubs back to being a profitable bank with global wealth management. 27 billion of new net assets in the unit, and a slight

disappointment in profits but investment banking beat on profits, and there was positive momentum for transactions in the third quarter. ubs looks set to go back to delivering money, and it is keeping its target to buy back one billion shares by the end of the year. tom: how solid is that target? can they recommit to that, given we expect it take up on demands on higher capital requirements, so to what extent could be in the pipeline a potential headwind for this lender? >> it is significant that this target was restated in the light and shows how solid ubs is. swiss regulars are looking at asking ubs to set aside more capital for its foreign units.

we will know when the first half of next year how much exactly it will be. ubs has said it is setting aside 20 million more capital for other unrelated issues mostly for booking all credits was assets and updating with new accounting regulations. due to this, it might have to set up as much as 25 billion extra for this new swiss regulatory, ubs is pushing back hard from the swiss reg leaders. we will see how it ends up by keeping on this target shows they remain confident they can deliver on the targets even if there is a regulatory cloud on the horizon. tom: thank you for the update and the reaction. in just under an hour we will hear from the ubs ceo, sergio ermotti. raphael bostic is looking for a

little more data before supporting a reduction in interest rates. he emphasized it would be really bad if the fed had to change course once it begins cutting. let's bring in mark renfield. the markets appear to have looked through this pushback. the -- are the markets right to zero in on the data and look past the caution coming through from some of these fed speakers? mark: you have traders who have post the yield on two years in five years and 10 year treasuries over 4% and we have not reached the cpi data yet. if this was a shakespearean play, they would say mr. bostic protests too much. the fed have put themselves in a position were so much is priced into the market. for the fed not to do anything at the september meeting is almost unthinkable. the pushback from the market

reaction would probably be something like we saw last week from the japanese stock market. it is something they cannot countenance. the best they can do now is keep traders thinking 25 basis points on the table and nothing more, but of course the data is the thing that will tell them over the next couple weeks. there is more employment and cpi reports to come before they meet but when you look at the global trend -- i was at new zealand lowering rates again today -- and the fed is very much in line with what other central banks are doing. the bank of japan is the only outlier in this sequence. inflation is moving down. the core cpi is expected to be 3.2. if it comes in lower like the ppl yesterday, can you imagine the reaction in the bond market, which is already on fire anyway? it will be an exciting night. tom: talk to us about the cpi print and to what extent, you're saying it is locked in, at least

traders think september is locked in. is the cpi print today more about getting 25 or 50 basis points? mark: yes, indeed, and outlook as well. one of the most interesting things traders focused on today from the new zealand central bank is dated 25 and discussed 50. imagine if jerome powell hints that the fed would need to discuss 50 basis points? imagine the outcry in the markets. new zealand central bank projected forward into next year, expecting interest rates to come down 110-115 basis points by the middle of next year. the fed has to give and outlook like that. what traders will be expecting is not only will there be a cut in september but they will be looking for guidance that the cpi will have rate cuts through the middle of next year as well. that is why the treasury curve

is pricing insomuch. it would need a hot cpi print for the rates to back up, and then traders would think it is an opportunity to get long in the bond market. it is asymmetrically skewed towards lower rates. it would take an awful lot to persuade traders they are not correct in their thinking. tom: mark cranford on the asymmetry of this bond market, and shakespearean nature of the central banks. thank you very much. here is what else to be thinking about, later today -- and this is an important gauge on the health of the u.s. -- chinese consumer, i should say, in terms of the consumer print from the earnings of tencent and alibaba. are we seeing any signs that chinese consumer is turning around? both of these companies are a good gauge on that question, and they report later today. is the cpi print out of the u.k., the inflation print out of

u.k. expected to tick up above the 2% level? what kind of conundrum would oppose for the boe? we will see if that adjusts later today. we get that cpi print out of the u.s., mark renfield talking about the importance of that and how much that is priced into the bond market and how it sets us up in terms of how we think about inflation involving in the u.s. that is the data point today out of the u.s., cpi given the softer prices we got yesterday, will that trend continue? we have around up of today's stories. no surprise is at the top of the list of stories, breaking down the earnings of this was lender and what it means for sergio

ermotti's plans to integrate credit and hand cashback shareholders. coming up, fumio kishida announces he will not run for a second term as ldp leader. they keep coming and going, the prime ministers of japan. we will look at possible successors, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ d i need it a lot of cool. we're both cool like that. sleep number does that. actively cools and warms on each side. during our biggest sale of the year, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed tom: welcome back to "bloomberg and free delivery when you add any base.

daybreak europe." japan is set to get a new prime minister. fumio kishida will not run for a second term as the leader of the long ruling liberal democratic party this september. >> the ldp needs to show it is

changing, and the public can see a transformation. the best way to do so is for me to step aside. therefore, i will not be running in the upcoming ldp election. i will devote myself to supporting the new leader.

tom: thank you for joining us.

when you bring in a new leader, a fresh face that helps to improve the party's image. and if they bring in the right person at that time, that could work again after the election, which we expect in late september. we don't have a specific date yet. the new leader could opt to call a general election. the ldp is more or less guaranteed to win, but there is a chance that they could lose some seats to the opposition, which has sort of made inroads in various regions in japan. but we do expect for the ldp to certainly stay in power. okay. bloomberg's tokyo bureau chief isabel reynolds. really appreciate it. on a busy day for you and the team, change coming at the top of the ticket when it comes to japan, of course. and the prime minister. thank you. coming up switching focus. u.s. secretary of state antony blinken reportedly delays his trip to the middle east due to regional uncertainty. we're going to get the latest on that next. this is bloomberg.

you push it. you try to slide it. you even try to hold them shut. but your doors just won't stay closed no matter what. introducing ruby monkey magnets. brand new ultra thin magnetic plates that will keep your doors and drawers shut. and now may be your last chance to get them at a low price. just peel to reveal the super strong adhesive. place the monkey, then the magnet and close. installation is that simple and now you have a door that will stay shut. so forget drawers that won't stay closed. every drawer stays closed. it's so fast and so easy. even large sliding doors or cordless window blinds. everything stays closed with monkey magnets. the secret is the ultra strong industrial magnet that's powerful attraction. keeps your doors and drawers securely shut. these magnets are so strong they can hold this hammer that's nearly 5 pounds. plus they're super thin. they'll fit just about anywhere and they stay out of sight. even screw them in for a more permanent solution.

monkey magnets are perfect for cabinets, dresser drawers, sliding closet doors, accordion doors, and more. they're made of ultra durable metal, so even your outdoor problems are solved in an instant because their corrosion and rust resistant. use them anywhere outside the house, even on that stubborn mailbox that won't stay shut. monkey magnets can stick anywhere from drywall to all types of wood frames, metal surfaces, and more. call or go online now to get eight sets of monkey magnets for only 9.99. monkey magnets are guaranteed to last ten years or your money back, but wait due to rising costs and supply chain shortages, this may be your last chance to get monkey magnets at this low price. there is a strict limit of one full house pack per order. while supplies last, so order now to keep all your doors and drawers shut tight with monkey magnets. call one (800) 590-6314. that's one (800) 590-6314. call or visit. monkey magnets.com. so call one 805 90631 for order

now. bah bah bah bah bulbhead. welcome back to bloomberg daybreak europe. now u.s. secretary of state antony blinken has reportedly postponed his latest trip to the middle east. for more, let's bring in bloomberg's amir news director ross mathison. ross, then a flurry of diplomatic activity and that is despite reports that blinken's trip has been postponed. what do we know at this stage? the focus of course, is on that meeting planned at least for thursday. well that's right. so these were reports that antony blinken was going to head to the region yesterday. then there were reports that he has delayed that trip, but he might just be waiting to see what happens with these talks. you mentioned that are due to start tomorrow, possibly in doha, which is that, again, a big effort to try and finally get a ceasefire in gaza in the war between hamas and israel. and maybe he just wants to see how they go before he heads to

the region. we also know there are reports of many other u.s. officials, apparently on the way, including brett mcgurk, of course, who's the middle east coordinator. the special envoy, amos hochstein also, and even the cia director, bill burns, who's been quite busy in the area visiting in recent months. and so the idea is, a bunch of u.s. officials fanned out across the region, um, you know, with countries like egypt, lebanon, all of them trying to say, everyone keep cool heads in all of this. we don't want this escalating into a full blown war in the middle east, but also pushing every side, every lever. they can to try and get everyone over the line towards a ceasefire. and that's what those talks tomorrow really are all about. okay. so we continue to watch any lines and any more details around those talks planned, as you say, for thursday. meanwhile, the u.s. inking another big defense deal with israel. what is the significance? what what do we know about this further military support coming through from the u.s. for that nation? well, this is the approval of a big defense deal that we knew was in the works.

and it involves up to 50 fighter jets, f-15 fighter jets, upgrades for existing fighter jets, everything from, you know, vehicles, ammunition, radar equipment. it's a big deal. it's got a lot in it. but the reality is that these planes are not going to come at least until 2029. so there's some years away, um, so they're not going to affect what's happening on the ground at the moment. but what they are is a signal that the u.s. is a key ally of israel is going to continue to supply it with weapons, particularly weapons that help it defend itself. the more cautious about offensive weaponry. and that's what set off the issues back in may, when the u.s. held tight to a shipment of large bombs that were concerned about those bombs making their way over to be used in gaza against potentially civilians, that caused some tension with the u.s. in fact, benjamin netanyahu accused the u.s. of holding back on on military aid. he said it was crucial to his war in gaza, but that seems to have now been papered over. the u.s. has said they've got this deal. it's happening again. this equipment may not be coming

anytime soon, but it is a signal of that long term relationship that the u.s. and israel continue to have. okay. bloomberg's amir news director ross matheson, with the important update out of the region and that continued military support from the u.s. to israel. ross. thank you. coming up, ubs more than doubling the profit estimates in terms of the latest earnings coming through for the second quarter, strong client inflows to the crucial wealth management business. we're going to have all the details next. stay with us. this is bloomberg.

insurance so easy it feels like magic. get a quote in seconds at ethos life. com. my name is stacey, i'm 57 and i was adopted in 2021. teen can come in and make you look at life in a whole different way. you know, he's my father, so i look up to him a lot. if i can be 10% of the man he is, i'll be a happy person for sure. learn about adopting a teen from foster care. you can't imagine the reward.vit >> good morning. this is "the opening trade." --

this is bloomberg daybreak london. i am tom mackenzie. inflation optimism. asian stocks extend a rally after a soft reading on u.s. prices. the fed's raphael bostic warns he wants more data before a preview of today's cpi prints later. ubs posts higher than in the second quarter, smashing estimates. we will bring you the details. breaking up is hard to do. we reveal the u.s. justice department is considering a rare bid to break up tech giant google after a landmark antitrust ruling. we bring you our scoop. let's check in on the markets. european futures pointing moderately high after the gains we saw yesterday, the biggest four-day rally for the s&p.

gains for treasuries as well, yields lower, treasuries currently relatively stable. the ftse 100 looking to add 22 point. we get cpi inflation data out of the u.k., 7:00 a.m. u.k. time. s&p futures flat right now, alongside nasdaq futures. investors it seems when it comes to the u.s. taking something of a breather after the rally the last few days. let's flip the board and look cross asset. after the gains we saw yesterday, the two-year at the front end. 1.28 on the pound. we will watch the currency. brent, $81 a barrel. gold down 0.2%. let's get to the earnings story of the moment. ubs reporting second-quarter net income of 1.1 billion u.s. dollars, more than doubled

analyst estimate. bloomberg's bureau chief is across all the numbers for us, joining me now from zürich. talk us through what led to the upside from ubs in the second quarter. >> hi, tom, good morning. indeed, it was global wealth management was one of the key drivers, 27 billion of dollars -- $27 billion of new assets under management. it shows how solid the brand of ubs continued to be. investment banking reported strong profit. they see positive investor -- they seem more transaction activity, especially from institutional investors. let's not forget that ubs just reorganized the way it runs its

global wealth management business. co. heads, one in charge of the u.s. business overall, one in charge of the asia business overall, and this is shaping up to succeed sergio ermotti in a few years time. tom: how much wiggle room to they have -- wiggle room do they have to return more capital to shareholders? >> this is very interesting. ubs has reconfirmed its target to buy back one billion shares by the end of this year. this is a strong statement, especially because there are regulatory headwinds on the horizon. ubs has already set aside more capital for new capital rules that are coming in and to take account of how credit suisse assets are accounted for. but there is on the horizon swiss regulators want ubs to set aside more capital for its foreign units, could be as much as a $25 billion extra capital

requirements. we will see how it goes in the first half of 2025. but ubs has restated its goal to buy back shares this year and a has a further goal that is 2 billion by 2026 by back. tom: you have followed this business very closely for a long time. is there anything else that stood out to you from these earnings that gives us a sense of the direction going forward for this bank? >> what is striking is that ubs is delivering a consistent implementation of the credit suisse acquisition. we know it was really complex, it was a mammoth task, there was a lot of legal unknowns. it's a very complex structure, two very complex structures to bring together at a global level. there were the closing of some of the credit suisse legal entities, which will allow clients migration from credit suisse to the ubs systems in the

second half of this year. it is a mammoth task but it is proceeding regularly. this year is the real year when the tighter the ground -- the tire has the ground, the global complexities -- the tire hits the ground, the global complexities of bringing these two banks together but it seems like sergio ermotti is keeping the task on track. tom: seeing positive investor sentiment. bloomberg's switzerland bureau chief with the breakdown and his thoughts on those ubs earnings. in just under half an hour we will hear from ubs ceo sergio ermotti on those earnings. you do not want to miss that conversation. calls berg has increased its profits and the growth outlook for the year as cost controls helped the danish brewer offset weaker consumer demand. it says organic operating profit will rise between 4% and 6% this year, that's up from the previous guidance of between 1%

and 5%. tighter cost controls helped counter a smaller than expected rise in volumes in the first half of the. carlsberg -- first half of the year. carlsberg's ceo will join us with more reactions to those earnings, so stay tuned for that interview as well. norway's sovereign wealth fund has trimmed its stakes in meta-, novo nordisk and asml in the first half. the world's biggest a sovereign fund added shares in his three biggest energy holdings, interestingly, exxon mobil, of course, shall, and bp. apple, microsoft, and nvidia were its three biggest holdings. we will speak to the ceo at 11:30 a.m. u.k. time. always really fascinating in terms of investor sentiment. the u.s. justice department is said to be considering a rare bid to break up alphabet's

google after a court ruling found the tech giant monopolized the online search markets. annabelle droulers joins me for more details on what is a bloomberg's group. this would be momentous, if it happens. we know they are now considering it. what details do we have from our sources on the ground tracking this story? annabelle: this has been one of the most read stories on the date. essentially, it follows that ruling last week where a u.s. judge said alphabet essentially had illegally monopolized the internet search market, so that was sort of the underlying liability ruling. now we are moving toward the remedy for this. the doj needs to present a proposal to the judge in the case for how it thinks that this should be addressed. i am overhearing from sources is that the doj is really considering a raft of different options, but one of the main ones is it could push for google to be broken up, which is really significant, because we have not seen that sort of push since microsoft more than two decades ago, and that was unsuccessful. but the units possibly at

greatest risk of divestment here is the android operating system, which is on around 2.5 billion devices worldwide, there is google's web browser, chrome, and possibly the sale of ad works, which alphabet uses to sell tech advertising. tom: that's potentially arguably the nuclear option for the doj. you touched on this, some of the less severe options. what is on the docket when it comes to some of, those potentially less severe options? and what kind of timeframe are we looking at? annabelle: i think it's sort of relates back to what was the crux of the case in the first instance, which is what the judge highlighted in the finding, that alphabet or google was found to have paid billions of dollars to companies like apple, like samsung to make a google the only search option available on its devices, or the default one. so that monopoly was found to be

illegal and that's with the judge could rule here, is that essentially alphabet could be prohibited from signing those sorts of agreements or contracts in the first place. in terms of the timing of this, it really depends on when alphabet is able to appeal this decision, if it's before the remedy trial, than it could be pushing the whole thing out by a year or two. if it's after the remedy trial, again, this could just happen in the next few weeks, few months. it could be quite soon. tom: bloomberg's tech reporter annabelle droulers with the details on that scoop. now to some other stories making is this wednesday. starbucks shares have jumped after the firm ousted its ceo and hired chipotle's ceo as its new leader. it comes after activist investors amassed stakes in the company. the abrupt exit adds to a record number of ceo departures from u.s. companies. paramount has started laying off

staff after closing a tv production studio. last week, the entertainment company said it was cutting 15% of its u.s. workforce, amounting to around 2000 positions. while reporting second-quarter results maastricht, the co-ceo -- results last, the co-ceo said it would affect marketing, finance and other departments. u.k. inflation data is out shortly following lester's unexpected dip -- last week's unexpected dip in unappointed. what will it mean for the bank of england's cautious to shift towards ricketts? we will get -- towards rate cuts? we will get more. this is bloomberg. ♪ thank you. during our biggest sale of the year, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed and free delivery when you add any base.

♪ tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe." in about 15 minutes, we are expecting to get data showing u.k. inflation picking up for

the first time this year. joining us, u.k. correspondent lizzy burden standing by. what are you going to be watching from this data set? lizzy: let me just take you back to when we had inflation coming back to that 2% bank of england target. you remember the celebrations in downing street. rishi sunak was so convinced of the economy had come back to normal that he called that snap election. today, we could see inflation rising again to 2.3% in july. this is because the helping hand of energy bill is fading out. we've already had this week a warning from the are stock on the monetary -- arch hawk on the monetary policy committee. she's been concerned about the labor market. yesterday, got the latest jobs data. yes, wage growth slowed in line with what officials wanted to see but you also had unemployment unexpectedly falling and companies hiring at the fastest pace since november so it really complicates the picture for the bank of england

because it really suggests that there is underlying strength in the u.k. economy. the question today is, do we see more of that? at the moment, you have not got investors expecting another boe cut until november. if you get an uptick in inflation, that would support the case to wait a bit longer. tom: we also got a grocery inflation data yesterday along with that wage data, the labor data. we got grocery data. what did that tell us in terms of what's happening in terms of price pressures in the u.k.? lizzy: these are numbers from cantar. worryingly, they showed grocery inflation rose for the first time since march 2023. it's not just those numbers. we had a report from the institute for fiscal studies saying it is the poorest people in britain who are being affected. this is really a headache for the new chancellor, rachel reeves. the figures show the price of the cheapest items in supermarkets jumped by twice as

much as the items that are most expensive, so for the period 2021 to 2023. the poorest quarter of the households are paying 100 pounds a year more for their groceries. it is very difficult politically, economically for these households. on the corporate front, it is a boon for the discount retailers like aldi. they have seen sales increasing. you seen spending on deals climbed 15%. at the same time, one of the big giants in the supermarket world has seen its market share fall 1.1 percentage point, so really struggling to compete in this tough market. tom: we get inflation then, you touched on this, of course, it drops at 7:00 a.m. u.k. time. there's some reporting that maybe this is the last time those official numbers are published that particular time. take us to the thinking. lizzy: i know you will have no sympathy for economics

reporters having to get up at the early hour of 7:00 a.m. i know you are an early bird like me. but there has been concern that ever since the publication time was moved for these economic releases from 9:30 a.m. to 7:00 a.m. during the pandemic that actually this is creating volatility in the market because the numbers are being published before the market opens. the office for international statistics is going to consult with the city on these concerns and maybe, just maybe my old colleagues on the economics team will get a bit of a lion. tom: u.k. correspondent lizzy burden, thank you very much indeed. . thanks it's a busy week for you and the team focusing on the u.k. data out this week. we look ahead to cpi just in 30 minutes time just 13 minutes time. shein has enlisted a former top

eu official to bolster its logging efforts. -- lobby and efforts -- lobbying . efforts if this is a raft of issues including a debate about whether to impose customs duties entry parcels which will be a potential game changer for shein and other low cost online retailers. a consortium led by ck infrastructure holdings had a agreed to buy a portfolio of u.k. windfarms from aviva's asset management arm. the group will pay about 350 million pounds for the assets, which include about 32 on sure windfarms. this is -- onshore windfarms. plenty more coming up. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ relax into a caribbean state of mind. visit sandals.com or call 1-800-sandals.

♪ >> growth is a slowing. earnings expectations are still probably too high for the second half of this year. and a fed that is reluctant to be proactive. i don't disagree. people are criticizing the fed. look, they're just being data dependent. they are going to react if they need to. if they overreact, that probably exacerbates the carry trade problem. tom: michael wilson there.

to what extent will that be influenced by the cpi data out later today? it's the print of the day after u.k. inflation drops, then the focus switches to cpi out of u.s. expectations are you're going to get an increase of just 0.2% month on month. here's the detail in terms of how the inflation story in the u.s. has been evolving and how that demand component on the basket is starting to cool. this is the breakdown from bloomberg economics. yes, price growth on a three month basis is still running above historical averages for the u.s., but some of the inputs are starting to cool, starting to suggest a there's more constructive outlook for inflation stateside. the purple line in terms of the shortcoming through is the demand picture. you can see that's started to squeeze. monetary policy planning a bigger role now. you can see that in green and yellow in terms of the squeeze on prices. in terms of the detail as to how this is transpiring stateside,

again, as we look ahead to that cpi print with expectations it would do nothing but reinforce the bets for a september cut by the fed. let's flip the board and have a breakdown of what to expect from the u.k. and cpi. you're expecting a pickup of the current and let basis to around 3.2% -- 2.3%, that's the headline number. the retail price index expected to pick up. it's a more complicated picture, arguably, for the bank of england. it went ahead with its first cut. markets do not expect the next cut until november. to what extent will the data out today informed that decision? we saw wages coming softer than expected yesterday for the unemployment number coming in lower. it's a more complicated picture for this bank of england, but this is the trajectory for cpi in the u.k. will break that down as those numbers cross in about seven minutes time. there's 20 more coming up this morning on bloomberg, including, by the way, interviews with the

ceo;s of carlsberg, shipping giant pack our lord. and then, course, a big interview with the norwegian wealth fund reducing some of their bets on ai, ramping up some of their bets in the oil space, still very exposed to nvidia. that conversation will be fascinating. some of those interviews coming up in the next three hours. next on the opening trade, we will hear from ubs ceo sergio ermotti on the swiss bank's big earnings beat. that interview in just a few minutes time. the opening trade is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

ryan t. writes, "moving is stressful. can you help me take one thing off of my to do list?” ugh, moving's the worst. with xfinity, you can transfer your internet in just a few taps. just a few easy moves. did somebody say “easy moves”? ♪ ♪ oh no. no, i was talking about moving your internet. this will move the internet. ♪ ♪ ooh, ooh. -let's keep it professional. professional dancers! -ok! stay connected during your move with the best in home wifi. easily transfer your services in the xfinity app. bring on the good stuff.

guy: good morning. -- what do you need to know this wednesday morning? ubs over delivering. wealth and flow staying strong.

investment bank bottom line better than instruments. we hear from the ceo and just a moment. the japanese prime minister announcing that he will not run for a second term. traders speculating that his successor could make it easier for the boj to raise rates at a quicker pace. a shock from down under. the reserve bank of new zealand cuts rates by 25 basis points and suggests that a 50 basis point move was discussed. tom: we check in on the markets with the new zealand central bank discussion and decision and focus. the price cut coming through. you can see it's weighing on the kiwi. down 1% versus the u.s. dollar. futures set for a positive day it seems. the s&p notching the fourth straight day of gains, the best rally since the start of the year. the u.s. 10 year at 384 after the rally from yesterday.

the countdown to the opening trade starts right now. guy: wednesday the 14th. central banks story today. the big shock coming out of new zealand. speculation coming out of japan. will a new leader allow the boj to pick up the pace when it comes to hiking rates? you clearly have the fed on deck as well today. cpi day in the usa but also cpi day here in the u.k. as well. we get data out of the united kingdom very shortly. around this, the earnings story that continues. ubs is the big story of the morning. we've got plenty of other ceos we will be talking to throughout the morning to get a handle on what's happening with the global economy. you bf over delivering. guy: the analyst -- tom: the

analysts pointed to the wealth analyst business and returning capital to shareholders. they are expected to see higher capital requirements. it seems that ubs is more than meeting expectations. they will return to -- caster show -- shareholders. $27 billion in net new assets in the second quarter in terms of wealth management. guy: the numbers are outstanding. feels like softness creeping into the second half of the year. we will see exactly what's happening there. we need to hear from the man himself. the person who has delivered all of this. francine spoke to him. what was the most proud of in these numbers? >> i'm proud that we made good progress in the integration. we significantly reduce the risk of the integration itself. we did that while staying close to clients.