financing cycle is going to start to pick up. companies need to raise money, and interest rates may be peaking. it's good for them. >> josh brown? >> for better or worse. for the 900th quarter in the row, i'm going into the earnings long apple. wish me luck. >> i'll see you on "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ >> thank you very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange," everyone. i'm kelly evans, and we have a huge move today, as markets think the fed might be hiking rates. yesterday, mark zandi called the housing market the biggest casualty of higher rates. plus, drugmakers can't make the weight loss drugs fast enough. there's one company our analyst is especially bullish on. he's here with a name and how much upside he sees ahead. is the consumer doing just

fine? a lot of mixed messages about this segment of the market, but there's one luxury travel stock gaining. the ceo joins us fresh off earnings with the trends that he's seeing. before all that, though, let's get to today's markets. dom chu is down at the new york stock exchange. dow is up almost 400, dom. >> i'm here at the stock exchange, nur d.c., we're all over the place covering the markets. but it's been a predominantly green day today. we're still holding near the almost up 400 level for the dow industrials. currently up 393 points, north of 1% gains, 33,668. the s&p 500 back above 4300 now, 62 points on the upside. 1.5% gain there. and the nasdaq composite, 13,237, up 176 points. 1 1/3% gain. so generally speaking, a very robust upside day for the markets, indicating at least some of that risk taking going on in the marketplace right now. one other place we are seeing some of that play out a little

bit more on the safety side. interestingly enough, there is also a bid for treasuries to a certain degree. look at the benchmark ten-year u.s. treasury note. now below the 4.7 mark. remember, at this cycle high, we were a hair above 5.02% at one point. and now we're back down to 4.7% for the ten-year yield. the two-year note yield ticking just below there. you can see that 5% mark, as well. slightly higher on the day, 4.99%. even the 20-year treasury bond itf is up 1 1/3%. so that gives you an indication of that upside move in government bonds. one other place we want to look at right now, whether or not it's a risk aversion trade, a safety trade, a non-correlated trade. regardless of what you want to think it is, bitcoin prices are now up just about 0.1 of 1%. at one point, it was almost 36,000 per bitcoin. so again, you can see over the

last year, we are hovering right around that kind of cycle high that we were seeing, at least from a shorter to medium term perspective on bitcoin prices. so kelly, overall, rarely do we put bitcoin, treasuryinies and stocks in the same bucket, but maybe the fed is driving a little bit of that risk trade going on. >> i think so, dom. thank you very much. the bulls are cheering the fed's second pause in a row, but is now the time to increase risk? inve in all signs are pointing to a recession on the way. we saw a jump in jobless claims today, the poor manufacturing report yesterday, and the fourth quarter earnings estimates are dropping fast. but that's not discouraging my next guest. he's turning to one of the most rate sensitive sectors for opportunity. we're talking about housing. he's got two names he likes. joining us is head of the

investment group at aerial investments. good to see you, charlie. >> good to see you. >> i can see you bristling at my litany of poor things going on in the economy. how would you read the tea leaves? >> i think importantly that there are some sectors that have already started to feel some pain. in general, we've been bullish for the outlook for the economy. the bond market is telling us we were going to have a recession. we didn't think we were going to have a recession. but one area that has felt the recession is housing. there are a lot of stocks in the housing sector that have felt the pain of a 5% ten-year treasury, and those housing stocks, housing supply stocks are very cheap in our opinion. this has been a brutal three months for value investors like myself, but we do think that we're at the end of the fed raising process, and that we could be having a better environment going forward. >> it would seem this has been a tough period for growth

investors. >> the small-cap value index underperformed even on the s&p. my prediction had been that higher interest rates would be very hard on growth stocks, because those earnings are far off into the future. that turned out to be true. unfortunately, that higher interest rate really took its toll on cyclical stocks. peoplefelt that a 5% ten-year would result in an 8% mortgage rate, and that was going to be tough on housing. again, those value stocks were hit hard. >> let's talk about some of these housing plays like mow huck and generac. and generac, what a week that stock is having. why not the home builders? those stocks were much cheaper 18 months ago than they are now. dig a little bit into where you would be playing the housing market. >> mostly, it's because the home builder's business has not been that bad. they have held in better,

because there's so much demand for new housing. what's come way down is repair and remodel. obviously, there was a fair amount of spending in that space in covid when everybody had to stay home. they decided to improve their library, maybe build a deck or a pool. that has come down. and, again, the prospect of an 8% mortgage rate has meant that people weren't going to borrow to upgrade their own home. we think going forward that there's still a lot of pent up demand for housing. when people can't buy that new house, they will repair their own so they can stay in their current mortgage. right now, the market is predicting very tough times for housing in the next quarter and the stocks were hit very hard. >> so you're in this for the long run? >> yeah. and we're in this because we are in unnormally high mortgage rates. so right now, we have real rates that are way over historical averages. the real rate of interest after inflation has averaged about 1% over the last 100 years.

it got to over 2.5%, particularly in the ten-year. so we think that's going to come down, as the fed has been selling bonds, has been allowing bonds to mature. there's a lot of focus on them taking up short-term rates. but what is just as important is they've been selling bonds. about $1 trillion worth of bonds. that's put huge pressure on long-term interest rates. we think those are going to come down over the next year. >> you think the long-term interest rates are going to come down over the next year? >> as the fed stops tightening. they sold $1 trillion worth of bonds. they aren't going to do that going forward. the fed buying bonds sent interest rates down to those unsustain my low levels in 2020 and '21. over the last year, they have sold $1 trillion worth of bonds, a big reason rates went up to 5% in the ten-year. we think that will stop and we'll get a normal ten-year,

which i'll call 4%, which will help a lot. >> what you are saying is a huge point of debate. some people think that qt will go on for years to come still, and others who think they will be porforced to stop. so you -- i'm surprised to hear you say they will be forced to stop it as someone who has been more upbeat about the economy. >> yeah. i mean, i think that they're going to see -- what they know is that higher mortgage -- or higher interest rates have a big impact on housing. they are going to start to see what we're seeing, which is real softness in that area. that can result in increases in unemployment, the housing market is a very important to the overall health of the economy. they're going to start to see the impact of an 8% mortgage rate. so i do believe we are going to have an end to fed tightening with short-term rates and at least a slowdown in the fed selling bonds. when that happens, we get down to a more normal ten-year rate,

which i think is 4%. again, a real rate of about 1%. >> very, very interesting. now that i can't talk to you about the sphere any more, what about pair ramount? that stock's having a nice day. give me something fun from the portfolio. >> i think you need to -- the sphere is going so well that you need to look at other avs to play similar experience. that's the square garden entertainment, which owns madison square garden. they're going to have a wonderful venue business. they own the knicks and rangers. people are going to watch sporting events. so madison square garden entertainment, which has the dolan discount -- >> are you friendly with dolen? >> we think the stock is cheap because people don't like him. so he's done things that worked

out. the sphere was his brainchild and will end up being very good. but no question, the stock is cheap because of his involvement. >> charlie, a pleasure. thanks for your time today. >> thanks, kelly. let's move on to the labor market, which has been the pillar of strength in this economy, but jeffrey gundlach doesn't think that will persist. >> i believe that layoffs are coming. we have seen hours come down. we've seen hiring freezes. and now we're starting to see layoff announcements. not en masse but they're out there in financial and technology firms. i believe that's going to spread. >> although my next guest says his data shows the opposite. his firm, recruiter.com, saw a jump in open positions for job recruiters last month. typically an indication for a pickup in hiring. let's bring in the chairman of recruiter.com. evan, good to see you. is this a new development? >> good to see you, as well.

look, i think jeffrey's right. there are layoffs coming. we're seeing them in the hundreds and in different sectors. i think when you talked about recruiters, and finally now, we're seeing open roles for recruiters, jumped up 8% month over month from our partners. that's a leading indicator. so i think the tech companies that laid people off earlier in the year, that was successful. they reset their overall companies themselves, and now they're looking to hire again. salesforce.com, they made major layoffs earlier, and announced they will be hiring lots of people. and gearing up for that by hiring recruiters. recruiters are a leading i would kay for of job openings -- indicators of job openings. >> what is the aura jobs report? >> it's a partnership we have with aura. they look at workforce intelligence and workforce

insights. >> so it's interesting they say that tech, one of the first area to shed workers, is going to be back in hiring mode. but you warned about layoffs. is it elsewhere in the economy? >> yeah. so lincoln just announced layoffs. schwab announced layoffs. but we all sort of noticed this was a rolling recession when it came to the overall job market themselves. so each industry sort of had their moment in time where they announced layoffs. we are seeing some companies that sort of held off, announcing layoffs. maybe schwab for instance with their merger with t.d. if you look at the overall jobs numbers, the open jobs, the month over month open jobs are up by 1.6%. so we are coming into november, the end of the year, and jobs are up. actually, in the magnificent 7, they were up 15%. so health care, that is still number one, though health care

ticked down in the recruiter index, as well as in the aura jobs report, ticked down just slightly. but it's still the number one slot in terms of industry setbacks. >> a lot of these jobs are in the salary range of $100,000 to $150-k. what does that tell you? >> it tells us that there is still this -- first of all, there is a higher candidate sentiment. so candidates still feel okay putting their name out there. we saw the quick rates in the report be consistent for the last three months. so maybe they're paying more money, or giving a better work life balance, more compensation, et cetera. so interesting to see so many of the open jobs are in the $100,000 plus range. >> so do you think tomorrow's report, to force you to a prediction -- >> we were all wrong last month,

right? so really, everybody was wrong last month. so the one light i would say is hospitality roles were up 5% in terms of open jobs, month over month. and we're now coming into that season where those hospitality roles, the seasonality roles are really up. we saw that, even two years ago when things were more difficult, we saw a big boom in terms of hiring in november of those jobs. so maybe that could balance out some of the more flat hiring that we have seen overall in the overall economy. certainly the last few months has been incredibly balanced. >> the return of the job hopper economy. we'll see how much longer that's around. evan, thank you for your preview today. appreciate it. >> thanks so much, kelly. still to come, a mixed bag for health care stocks as the battle with weight loss drugmakers rs ramps up. we'll get the street's take who is best positioned into year

end. and we'll take in with the ceo of hotels and resorts. it's up 4.5% today. can it be resilient if we see a slowdown? and constellation brands, the shares are halted ahead of the company's growth presentation as its investor day. that kicks off at 2:00 p.m. eastern. up half a percent. back after this.

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welcome back to "the exchange." shares of the obesity drugmakers are mixed today after reporting earnings. mckeson lower 2%. lily and novo are higher about 4%. all shared a positive outlook on glp-1, aka weight loss drug growth. here's what the eli lily ceo said earlier today. >> a lot of the news about half a dozen other weight loss medicines in the pipeline with different profiles, including one in phase three that could have as much as 30% weight loss in obese individuals. so we're a serial innovator in obesity. >> my next guest is bullish on lily.

joining me is the senior am list in the biotech and pharma space. jeff, good to see you again. welcome. >> you too, kelly. thanks for having me. >> where are we in the hype cycle at this point? because, you know, basically every possible headline, both regarding the companies themselves and the rest of the stock market, has been floated out there. but what are the fundamentals telling you about whether there are price increases and whether the prospects are justified. >> that's a great question. definitely this quarter, i think it was pretty good for lily. it wasn't better than expectations, they did beat one of the main metric numbers. but what you saw today was validation of lilly's growth profile over and above the rest of large-cap biotech and farm oi. -- pharma. we're talking 20% topline growth, and that could be up to ten times better than a lot of

larger caps. so that's where we are in the cycle. i still think we're very, very early innings. manjaro and the drug isn't even formally approved yet in obesity, but we're seeing the growth as it is now. >> we have a colleague of mine around here is always so frustrated. he had bet on one of the weight loss medications, maybe it was ozempic, so what do you say in terms of when these are going to be more widely available, even just to patients who would like to have access now? >> you know, for the most part, obviously you have to get formal approval. that should happen for lilly by the end of the year. and for the most part, they will be working on reimbursement and access in '24 and' 25. it's still not normally reimbursed by medicare and

medicaid. but commercial insurance it is. but that is, i think, one of the biggest questions is how long are people going to be on the drugs? once someone loses 15% or 20% or more, a lot of times they'll go off or a payer will force them to go off. but to get all the benefits of these drugs beyond just weight loss, you need to stay on a little longer. >> i'm looking at sort of coming off the covid cycle and the damage that's doing to the main drugmakers there. and thinking about if lilly and these names need to ramp up supplies to get more supply into the market. are we going to look back in two, three years as they are kind of also coming off maybe the peak and saying now they're oversupplied and the stocks are down. how can they be confident that if they scramble to increase supplies they won't be punished for that? >> yeah, i would say for the most part, the demand is there, no doubt about it. in just the u.s., i mean,

conservatively the population could be something in the 100 million patient population and maybe as high as 150 or maybe more. but lilly and novo are investing heavily. but i would say, here we are, a little more than four quarters into the launch for lilly and on a $6 billion run rate. so it's early, and i think these are going to be really big drugs over time. >> that's nvidia-esque. i see that it's helping mckeson, as well, doing tons of shipments. so looking across your coverage space, do you stick with the manufacturers? are there secondary players that might benefit? >> there's definitely other players in the glp-1 space. pfizer and amgen are pretty early in the development there. they have phases one and two

assets. it's not going to be a zero sum gave. it will probably be novo and lilly for the next five years or so. but there's a lot of other manufacturers, mostly biotech and pharma, that could participate. you know, why shouldn't other bigger cap companies be in there, right? a bristol or a merck for example. the suppliers that definitely will benefit for a much higher demand, but the big question is how fast can they get to critical mass? >> jeff, thanks for your time. appreciate it today. >> thank you. coming up, check out shares of solar edge, down 19% after disappointing results, but it's come quite a lot back, down 6% right now. we'll take a look at what is continuing to batter the solar stocks. as we head to break, here's a look at the sector map, with

all 11 groups in the green today, led by real estate, utilities and energy. real estate up 6% just since monday. back in a moment. ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ai has the power to automate, but if it's using untrusted data can you trust the results? your business doesn't just need ai, it needs the right ai for your business. introducing watsonx a platform designed to multiply output by tailoring ai to your needs. when you watsonx your business, you can train, tune and deploy ai, all with your trusted data.

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they also had a 3% jump in customer traffic. and look at the media stocks, with roku up 30% on a big revenue beat, up 20% from a year ago, thanks to a rebound in video advertising. paramount reports after the bell, up nearly 9%. warner brothers are sharply higher after roku resulting. even disney up 2.5%. constellation shares reopened a few moments ago. they were up half a percent before that investor presentation. now they're up about three quarters of a percent and more to come at 2:00 p.m. eastern. and solar edge plunging on disappointing results and guidance, but much better today than last night, down 7%. last night down almost 20% and dropped 27% two weeks ago on preliminary results. so we brought in pippa stevens, following the story for us. really a tough stretch for them, and they're not the only ones in that sector. >> tough indeed. they did announce two weeks ago that things were not going to

look great. even so, they still disappointed. q4, wall street was looking for $700 million and in q2, the revenue was almost a billion. so this has deteriorated very quickly. they see margins in q4 between 5% and 8%. two quarters ago they were 30%. so the slowdown has taken company executives by surprise. >> there's a lot of different solar models. what does solar edge do? their revenue number has fallen in half the last couple of quarters is stunning. >> their main business is the inverter business, which converts the solar power to power that can go back to the grid and used in your house. the reason why they're seeing a dropoff is because in europe where 80% of the revenue is based, the power prices have come down.

last year, we were talking about europe was going to have this energy crisis. that did not materialize, so people are going solar. with rising rates, it makes the payback period or the system which the period pays for itself longer. so there's not as much as an ince incentive. the cfo, i spoke to him last night. he said that through august, things were looking pretty normal. and then september fell off a cliff. so in every other year, july, august, are down in europe because everyone is on vacation. it has always bounced back in september every year. that did not happen this year. so even when they warned two weeks ago that things were not looking great, they didn't at that point know about the magnitude that buyers have not shown up. he did say it's country specific in the netherlands. they're looking at their net metering policy. in austria, they're going to suspend taxes in january. so there are a lot of countries

with specific issues, all been the backdrop of rising rates, which is hammering consumers. >> it's a perfect solar storm, as we said earlier, coming against the industry. that's just a shocking outcome. thank you very much. let's get to julia now for the cnbc news update. white house officials say on his trip to the middle east, secretary blinken will urge israel to pause military operations to allow hostages to be released and aid to be delivered. officials clarified that the humanitarian pauses would be different than a cease-fire. a former memphis police officer changed his plea to guilty in the fatal beating of tyre nichols. he pled guilty to charges of obsessive force and obstruction of justice and will plead guilty to state charges. prosecutors are recommending a 15-year sentence. it's unclear whether the other four officers will follow suit. the suspect and rapper tupac's murder case pleaded not

guilty today. police said duane davis had been a long-time suspect. davis was charged with one count of murder for allegedly leading a group in the drive-by shooting that kid tupac. back over to you. >> julia, thank you very much. coming up, how is the high-end hotel industry holding up in this macro environment? we'll ask the ceo of host hotels. we're back in a moment.

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welcome back to "the exchange." shares of host hotels and resorts up nearly 5% on a bottom line beat and a full-year guidance range. there was nearly 8% growth and they are the largest third party owner of marriott and hyatt hotels, with 72 property information the u.s. and five more internationally. here for an interview is the ceo. jim, good to have you here. welcome. >> kelly, thanks for having me. >> this flies in the face a little bit of what we heard. we've had companies lowering guidance, we hear the high-end consumer is hard hit. the target ceo said people are pulling back on groceries. maybe that's not your core

customer, but what are you seeing? >> we're very optimistic about the state of travel. we had a terrific quarter, as you just pointed out. and we're able to hold our guidance for the full year. we're optimistic on a lot of different fronts, because we continue to see strength and improvement in our group business. it's very strong. we're seeing the gradual evolution of the return of the business traveler on a month by month basis. our leisure customer, we have 16 resorts. leisure rates are still up 56% compared to 2019 in the third quarter. so we're not really seeing a meaningful pullback by any means on leisure. international inbounds and other tail winds for us, as we start to see the international business recover, that's going to help us, as well. >> yeah. >> and consumers are basically

just so prioritizing experiences over goods. we see it in our hotels, both in the resort properties, and our food and beverage numbers are above where they were in 2022 and 2019. so we're optimistic on a lot of fronts. >> that's interesting and jives with what we heard earlier on, who said that the sphere in las vegas has done so well is making him bullish on a lot of other parts oh of this space. i don't know if the marriott marquee if that's a big part of revenue or anything like that. but when you say the group is coming back and driving some of these results, just talk in some detail about what you're seeing there. >> sure. in the third quarter, we booked 245,000 group room nights for the quarter. that revenue is almost 7% greater than where it was at

this point in time in 2019. a differentiator for us in many ways is the quality of our assets. we have invested meaningfully in our properties over the course of the pandemic. we have invested $1.5 billion in our hotels, in addition to acquiring eight new properties at a cost of $1.8 billion. so marriott marquis is a good example. we did a renovation of that asset over the course of the pandemic. and we have seen a meaningful pickup in group business and transient business at that property. in fact, i talked about this, three markets that are very important to us from a business transient perspective, new york, san francisco, and denver. they are only down 10% in business transient room nights relative to where we were in

2019. so we have a fortress balance sheet that allows us to pull levers on all fronts. we're the only investment grade lodging reit. and in addition to, you know, continuing to invest in our assets, and acquiring hotels, in the quarter we bought back stock, we raised our dividend. so we're very well positioned for any macro economic environment that may come our way. >> i've got to get back to the marquis. when i was young, my uncle would take me to the elevator and it would shoot up to the top. >> you should check it out. it's a truly reimagined hotel. >> so final question, on a much wonkier note. you mentioned the balance sheet. tell us what effect rates are having. we have seen this historic rate shock. now we're coming off that a little bit. a lot of the reits are doing nicely today. what is this going to mean this level of interest rates for your

business the next couple of years? >> for our business, higher interest rates are good. you know, as we sit here today, we have $2.6 billion of liquidity. that includes a fully available $1.5 billion credit line and the balance is in crash. acquisition financing is expensive and kept a lot of people on the sidelines. we had the ability and the only ability in the lodging space, and frankly, as one of the only buyers that can go in and do deals on an all-cash basis. so we have very minimal maturities. we have one $400 million bond deal due next year. it's very manageable. so we're excited with our positioning. >> nice place to be in this kind of environment. jim, thank you for joining us to talk about the portfolio and the properties. appreciate it. >> thank you. have a good day. still ahead,ium brands,

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have you met them yet? for [ gasp ]million of [ screams ]ere. welcome back. shares of apple are higher today ahead of their earnings after the bell. the street will be watching for an update on china iphone demands, the holiday quarter overall. shares are up 2% today. for today's tech check, diedra and steve join us to break it down. diedra, let's just start with you and set the scene for us a little bit here. >> yeah. so something i've been looking at this morning is what you mentioned first is the china factor. what has been typically apple's greatest opportunity is now looking these days more like a liability. it has wall street a little

worried. it's not just the supply side that started a year ago, almost a year ago today with the foxconn factories, but now it's about demand. what kind of impact is the return of huawei's smartphone having on iphone demand? data shows that the market share for apple in china has decreased because it's really been the success from huawei. we know that the iphone 15, according to third party data, hasn't been selling as strong. so that's what investors will want to look at. >> steve, what is the mood in cupertino? can you give us a sense of things just from the trees out there? >> yeah, i mean, it's a gorgeous day. but look, the thing that everyone will be looking for is the guidance for this holiday quarter. you know, it was the holiday quarter a year ago that they missed expectations, kind of kicking off that full fiscal year of declining sales. we're expecting this third quarter -- fourth quarter report rather to show its fourth quarter in a row of declining

sales. everyone is going to be listening to that call. i would caution people, wait until the earnings call at 5:00 p.m. eastern. listen to the cfo and how he guides towards the holiday quarter for any signs of what demand looks like. we'll get a little bit of data of the iphone 15 cycle. it's really all about can apple return to that top line growth, given all the head winds in china that diedra was just talking about. u.s. smartphone demand is down, of course. we did hear some positive things from qualcomm last night about the mobile demand, but overall, it's still a big concern for apple. >> diedra, one of the things that caught me off guard, apple, i feel like i came of age with the steve jobs unveils, and these are huge, and then they kind of went and did the 8:00 p.m. spooky fast thing the other night. and the message seemed almost a

bit panicky and a bit rushed, and maybe we're all reading way too much into this, but as the dust settles, what do you think? >> it had a lot of folks puzzled, why would they do this on the eve of earnings? but the chip story has been one of the most fascinating stories about this company over the last few years. the success and how that has enabled them to do more and more of that vertical integration that investors love. what did you make of that ann announcement? >> i've been following apple forever. they don't typically do evening events. i didn't see it as anything more than a cute little halloween thing. maybe they put together that really slick video in two or three days. i doubt it. it was heavily scripted. so i doubt it was as rushed out as some people have been

implying. and it's also not unusual for apple to release new macs in october or november, in time for the holidays. soy didn't read into it anymore more than they wanted to do something cute for halloween. but the mac business is something to look at in this quarter, expect it to be down significantly, despite, you know, the success of these m series chips. >> i wonder if we're just giving them -- if we're not giving them the benefit of the doubt because the stock had been on such a slide going into that event. now once it's turned around a bit, the mood is a little more positive. do we have any sense of what to expect from historical patterns on their earning report, as well? >> when you put anal in the context of snoo >> it is declining revenue that they talked about today over the last fiscal year. so that is very different, especially for the valuation that a lot of the bears take

issue with, is that the valuation does not justify a company where revenue is shrinking. >> we'll leave it there for now. better mood going into this report. the stock coming off a better stretch. we'll hear from apple after the bell. it's not just them either. we have some near-term options in block implying a 13% move in either direction. draft kings has only missed revenue once in 14 quarters. and with 38% short interest, is carvana poised for another squeeze or not? sryl have the action, theto and the trade on all three, next in "earnings exchange."

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nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! [ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. welcome back. more earnings on deck and we have a bunch of new economy stocks in today's earnings exchange. we're going to look at block, draftkings and carvana. here with our trades is jeff gilbert, km financial founder and ceo. i'm trying to figure out which you might like. >> let's see. >> we will start with block, formerly square, down 40% in the past three months on spending concerns and september outages

for square and cash app. wedbush focusing on monthly active users to get engagement and market share against paypal as they try to balance growth and profitability. jeff, would you be a buyer of block? >> yes. i'm still going to call it square. a buyer of block. i want to use paypal as a proxy. over the last three years, it has been lock in step whatever paypal has done it has done. yes, there's competition there and they are concerned about margins and rising competition. maybe there's a merger because paypal is twice the size. at the end of the day we are seating move higher in the wake of paypal's earnings reports. i think there's expectation for a move higher and makes a ton of sense at $48. to your point, we just hit 52 week low. it's hard to value the economy stocks we're talking about. the five-year average on square has been about 88 forward times earnings. we're about 25, from a p/e ratio

trading at 25. this is a discount and i want to own it here and you'll see this implemented into our economy globally. >> one question when we talk about these steps, for instance, we saw the options are implying a move 13% up or down for square. what does that tell you as a trader? do you like those kinds of opportunities? is it guaranteed we're going to get a big swing? sometimes that move is a head fake and nothing happens? >> whenever you see the implied volatilities it's specific to that stock. this is a higher beta stock. square having a 13% implied going into earnings, you have high expectations for a binary outcome. it's going to test the 52 week low or the ability to recover and reclaim the valuation we talked about in its former average of p/e ratios. >> thank you for answering that. always thinking about it. move to draftkings, that's the online sports book. it's up 140% year to date. they've had five new state

rollouts, north carolina, vermont are coming down the pike. of course they're well off the $70 highs from 2021. they're focusing on new features like same game parlays and have higher margins. would you be a buyer of this one is this. >> i want to be a buyer and i want a volatile stock. its ipo, it merged with a spac and as soon as it came out covid hit. all basketball games, nba, stopped existing, and sure enough, you saw draftkings go from $12 all-time high to $70. as you look at the statistic, espn is rolling out bet acquisition, so there's more competition. between fanduel and draftkings and espn bet there's more room. when you look across the country, only 50% of our population is gambling or allowed to gamble on their mobile app, it's state specific still. there's a ton of room and you want to own it. if you want to book profits, i

get it. pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. as long as you have the stomach to own it longer term it should move higher. it's not linear. >> jason robins is on "mad money" with jim cramer after earnings, we'll see what he has to say and how that report goes. that brings us to carvana, up more than 500% year to date with meme stock rally and up 14% today. well off the $370 high from 2021. consumer demand is in focus as rates remain high, used car prices down 8% from a year ago and the company completed a debt exchange trying to shore up liquidity and lower interest rate costs. i can't imagine, but maybe you're a buyer of this one, jeff? >> no. you know me too well, kelly. at the end of the day my fiduciary responsible has come out. it's up 400% but it needs to go up another thousand percent to get back to where it was at

all-time hues. the vending machine car experience has come under pressure. it's down 85% on a three-year perspective. yes, this is a company that has felt the impact of fed chairman powell and raising interest rate policy because that capital like you talked about had to be recapitalized and put a hurt on them. i don't want you short this stock. it's up 13% today going into earnings after the bell, but if you own this stock it's a gift that you've got be back to 450%. if you own it from where it was this is an opportunity to move on from the stock. the vending machines that has the car stacked in them, i don't see cars anymore. >> i don't see them in my neighborhood making the rounds they did. >> that's right. >> take a victory lap. are we at your 10-year price target or not? show a one month chart of the 10-year. when we were at 5, didn't sayou

say 4.5 was next. >> i did. the whole crew on "the exchange" needs a victory lap. ton of bonds rolled out on cnbc but back to two things, i have a traded the 10-year note for a long time but secondly when you look and feel the way it was just a trade that was overextended, bill ackman talked about covering his trade, whenever you see the pendulum swing so hard like that, the expectation and then you have the fed one-two punch talking about the pause, we called on your show with you the pause that was happening and got verified yesterday. that's you're seeing the 10-year at 4.62% and i see it tucking under 4.5% which should continue heard it here first to light up the santa claus rally. >> thank you, santa. appreciate your time as always with kkm financial. we'll leave it there. that does it for "the exchange." the dow up 500 points. for more analysis get my

newsletter at cnbc.com/newsletter or scanning the qr code on your screen. shares of affirm are surging after amazon announced a partnership with the buy now pay later company. jon fortt is getting ready in for tyler. i will join him on the other side of this break. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere?

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our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly. welcome to "power lunch." alongside kelly evans i'm jon fortt. stocks are jumping today as markets react to the fed decision and the chairman's press conference. yields tumbling as markets seem to think the fed is done hiking. we'll break down what that means for stocks. look ahead to the next big event, apple earnings. plus, rising rates have made buying a house more expensive quickly. what that's done to the real estate market and discuss the battle over broker fees. >> and that's a juicy one. let's get a check on the markets speaking of juicy, the