>> yields have come down. >> macro data, including the jobs report is softer. >> came in --s it a goldilocks jobs report. it's been great to have you with us today and this week. hope you made some money. thanks for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i am brian sullivan in for scott from post 9 at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour, we'll try to make it, with stocks on track for their best week of the year. you're welcome, america. the dow, the s&p and nasdaq all on track to close the week up more than 3%. small caps doing even better for once. and just a few minutes we'll speak with morgan stanley's chris toomey. he runs one of the highest ranked wealth advisory teams in all the land. he'll tell you what he is telling his high net worth clients right now. that's ahead. we begin with our "talk of the tape." we got a jobs report, we got

apple numbers, we had a fed meeting, we had a treasury refunding. guess what. stocks rallied after each and every one of them. is this, then, the all-clear for stocks that investors have been waiting for? i don't know, but our guest does, lauren goodwin of new york life investments. she's here at post 9. welcome. i don't think it's an accident that every time you and i do the show together, the market goes up. have you noticed that? >> look, now we know what to do. >> let's do it. what are you telling your clients -- are you shocked by this rally? >> i'm not shocked by this rally but i'm not sure how much longer we have to go. the employment report that we saw today, to me s a pretty clear signal that the last of our economic dominos are beginning to topple. that means we probably have a couple more months of this resilient economic data we've been seeing. a little bit of edge off the fed that could be supportive to stocks, but it really is a tactical improvement from our perspective with recession around the corner. >> recession right around the corner.

i posted this on x, formerly known as twitter. i thought today's jobs number were terrible. i look at the household survey, 384,000 decline on the household side and revisions downward. how do we read this? >> it's a tough number but it's not a one-off. >> every jobs number gets revised down almost every month. >> continuing claims, productivity employment data, temporary joblessness. these are figures pointing in the same direction. that's important because, a, we're right on time. the lag is 18 to 24 months. we're about at 20. historically speaking when you start to see this type of early softening in employment, it accelerates pretty quickly. >> i brought this up with bill gross last night on "last call" and i said, i'm not putting on the tin foil hat or anything but sometimes the government data doesn't always match up with

maybe what your ears and eyes see or people tell you about it. we just had a 4.6% gdp print. i'm hearing you say you're a little concerned but the macro government data shows it's the greatest economy in the history of the world. >> first of all, i think you would look amazing in a tin foil hat. >> reynolds wrap. cheap here? >> as a fashion choice. just saying. but what you're describing is really a matter of -- the economy has been evolving over the last 18 months since the fed started hiking rates the way we would expect it to evolve. and the q3 gdp data doesn't tell us anything about the way employment is going to evolve in the next couple of months. >> and another cheap plug for "last call" because i'm here, so we're going to do it. we asked about -- so was apollo investments came out with a really interesting chart and said based on earnings yield of stocks against the ten-year yield, apollo felt that the u.s. equity market, the s&p 500, was

the most overvalued in 20 years. on that one metric. so, i asked bill gross last night if he also felt that the market was overvalued. he answered in a very grossian way. here it is. >> typically a pe ratio of 14, 15 times more is more appropriate. it's true the market hasn't adjusted to that. maybe it's a new market this time. it's a new oldsmobile as opposed to your old father and mother's oldsmobile. but in any case, i think at 18, 19, 20 times the pe ratios are stretched. >> pe ratios stretched. overall stock market is overvalued. agree or disagree? >> i agree. as a macro person, here's my perspective on the grossian perspective. it is really difficult on a five-year or ten-year basis to bet against u.s. equity. not just from an economic fundamentals perspective but

also from the way the world is turning, with the way that u.s. companies not just in the foundational layer but also in other aspects of artificial intelligence and other developments in technology, are really taking the stage. it's tough to bet against u.s. equity long term. but -- >> tough to bet against america long term. >> sure. i'm with you. >> i got an eagle on my shoulder. if congress -- if d.c. just shut down for two years, we might be able to get something done, but that's different. >> on a tactical basis i do expect we'll see market weakness, but valuations aren't a great timing indicator. when we look at timing of market weakness, we're really looking at when do jobless claims start to materially rise and when do earnings start to fall off. that's when the equity market says, oh, we're in recession. that's when we see valuation weakness. it's not going to come just because valuations are high right now. again, i think that transition might still be a couple months away. >> new york -- if i'm a new york life client, i'm thinking decades, not years out. and the market goes up 75% of

the time. so, you want to invest. people who trade or timers, you're sort of sounding a little of an alarm. if you're investing 10 and 20 years for now, you should always just be investing in the market, right? >> sure. but i think even in the tactical format, we are beginning to move more defensive in our forty foal yoes from a tactical basis. if you're thinking about the course of 2024, it is just as important to think about how you get back in the market because that's usually when the economy is feeling icky, the economy is starting to pick back up but you're not sure. that tactical call is just as important. as we're starting to think in defensive terms right now, we're encouraging our clients to think about when you start adding, what are the indicators that make you feel more optimistic. >> let's expand the conversation and bring in somebody who's somebody who has been champing -- and it is champing not chomping -- cnbc senior correspondent steve liesman.

was this jobs report as grim as lauren and myself sort of think it might be? >> no, not at all. you know me better than that. i'm more likely to chomp than to champ. >> that's just not your forte. >> champ is not my thing. here's the thing, i think the number was weaker than it appeared because of striking workers and diane swann was talking about this earlier. it's not just the 33,000 the number was light because of the striking workers. there are other workers who weren't actually on strike that will probably come back to work next month. that's good. you had 100 -- let's say that number should revise up by 40,000 or 50,000. you shouldn't be more than 100,000. the other thing is, from the market's point of view, you've had wage gains continue to ease. maybe not as much as expected. but when you look at either weekly earnings or average -- or hourly earnings, they both have

been coming down, very sort of bumpy but coming down in a way that is easing off pressure when it comes to the inflationary concerns that are out there. and the result of this, this is from the market point of view, is that it's brought down this outlook for a rate hike is just like off the table right now. you look at these probabilities. they're just barely double digits. and then the other side of that is that you've had the probabilities of rate cuts come back into the market. and one more thing, brian. if you give me a second here. what interests me about this are these numbers, but also the fed's response to this number. powell didn't push back on these pricing on wednesday. we had tom barkann on "squawk on the street" this morning and he didn't push back either. here's what he said when i asked him if you think the market has priced out these cuts too early. >> i would like to think the market has responded to the data. what we saw today was data that showed a gradual lessening of the job market. i think that's what those who would like to not see another

rate hike would want to see. we'll see what the inflation comes in. if the inflation comes in relatively hot, the market will react, i'm sure. >> so, from an economic point of view, i think the numbers were okay. from a market point of view, i think they were goldilocks. >> steve, a question from me, how long do you think this lasts? because from my perspective, we're seeing the fed grapple with tightening financial conditions, or certainly tighter than a couple months ago, inflation. the data is telling somewhat different stories for them. do you think this goldilocks position can keep them stable for three months, six months, soft landing? >> i think they can -- look, what you need is you need these inflation numbers to come down. if i showed you an inflation chart right now t wouldn't look as good as that wage chart because the decline in inflation has stalled a little bit. brian will tell you, we'll get a little help in the coming months from the oil prices which were off today and have been off some of the higher levels that were associated initially with the

outbreak of violence in the middle east. that's going to be good news for the inflation numbers. you always have this question, when it starts to come down, does it come down and level off or keep coming down? the leveling off is the soft landing. i don't think anybody knows. if we were here a year ago, remember the uncertainty of the recession. that hasn't happened. i'm a little worried about the banking system and the impact of these higher rates on the banking system and their ability to continue to lend into the economy. if we can get through that particular gauntlet, i think we'll be okay. >> steve, you mention the revegs that never came. that's an excellent point because there's a lot of people out there that were vocally calling for recession coming or saying we were in rescession a year ago even though the numbers don't belie that. when i look at your graphics of the probability of rate cuts, is it possible that wall street is also getting that wrong because,

as i've heard from you when you're talking to chair powell, he seems like he's saying loud and clear, steve liesman and others in that room when you ask him, higher for longer. >> yeah, i think that's right. here's why, brian, and i should have made this clear. here's why i mentioned the fed has not pushed back on these numbers. when we were in a situation before where the market was pricing in cuts, you heard reasonably vocally from the federal reserve that they disagreed with the market's outlook. it feels right now, especially that barkin quote, if i could get a little into the semantics of it, he's saying we're on the sage same page as to the reaction function of it. when he says the market is responding to the data, he's also adding, in a way i don't think is wrong, and i think that's important there. look, we could have the inflation dynamic wrong here. we could have the economic dynamic wrong here, but there's not a big disagreement between how the fed thinks it's going to

work out. that's different in previous years when cuts were priced in. >> many have called eight of the last two recessions, steve. >> exactly. >> as you know. steve liesman, have a good weekend. lauren, final comment from you, because if our audience does believe we're going into recession, as you've just said, if they do believe that, what do we do? >> well, again -- >> beans and stash cash -- >> wear a tin foil hat. >> those are the same people hoarding the beans. >> look, i think in the near term, investors understand what a defensive playbook looks like. you move up in the cap scale, moving closer to mid and large rather than small caps. you're looking at quality. you're looking at profitability across asset classes. for me one of the things that's important in this cycle is how that might look a little different, that defensive playbook, compared to last

cycle's. why? because the fed's programs during the pandemic and some of the reason for the inflation we've seen is also a reason why some of the typically riskier asset classes, tech stocks may be one of them, certainly the high yield asset class, are higher quality than they've been in the past. they've been able to build fortress balance sheets -- >> just like the covid savings for the households. >> for the consumers. >> it lasted a lot longer than people thought. people didn't realize how much people had saved. >> exactly. if we can take a lesson from that and apply that to the sources of resilience for this economy, i think it makes a defensive playbook more robust and more specific to the market environment today. >> lauren goodwin, great stuff. appreciate you coming down on a friday. thank you. >> thank you. let's get to our question of the day. we want to know if the s&p 500 will end the year higher or lower than it is right now? it's a binary choice, folks.

go to @cnbcclosing bell on x to vote. we'll share the results later in the hour. right now let's get a check of the other top stories to watch as we head into the close. kristina partsinevelos is here with that. >> hi, brian. expedia having its best day since 2020 after the vacation booking giant posted better than expected earnings and revenue. executives said travel demand still resilient in the quarter, especially asia and latin america. they announced a new $5 billion buyback. that's helping shares up 19%. bill holdings is hitting its lowest level since may 2020. the cloud-based service provider beat on earnings and revenue from the prior quarter but that's overshadowed by weak income guidance for the current quarter. keybank is cutting the stock to sector weight saying macro headwinds and sentiment will keep challenging this stock. that's why shares are down a whopping 26%.

brian? >> kristina partsinevelos, thank you very much. as always, we'll see you soon. we'll see you toward the close. we are just getting started on this friday. "closing bell." up next, apple pulling a david bowie. it's under pressure. saying sales is something they have not done since the iphone was invented. we'll get an update on apple heading into the close and shareholder take. we're live from the new york stock exchange where you're watching "closing bell." the dow up 287, headed for its best week of the year. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform

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and take advantage of our low monthly payment financing. apple stock not having a great day. shares are down. earnings did top estimates but that's want the big story with apple. the big story is that sales have now dropped for four straight quarters. that is something that has never happened in the iphone era. hasn't happened since 2001. we are talking about apple, a powerhouse. what do you do right now? let's bring in requisite capital management. you have to love it hasn't happened in 22 years thing, but is it a real reason to be concerned, brin? >> first of all, good to see you, brian. i don't think it's a real reason to be concerned long term because while their sales are slowing, which is definitely going to put a pressure on the stock, i think for the remainder

of the year, what isgrowing, what is ramping up are services. the iphone sales were $43 billion. services came in at $22 billion, which is number two on the revenue line, up 16%. on the call, they said that's accelerating, continuing to accelerate. if i'm a long-term investor, which i am here, they have a user base of over $2 billion. they had wonderful numbers all around. so, i think that as investors, long term, they continue to ramp up, but short term, can the market rally without apple? we've asked this question a million times. i think today tells you especially absolutely. >> i do wonder about the china problem. huawei came out with its own phone. huawei and arm of the chinese government. just having been there a few times, i can tell you, there's going to be a lot of social

purchase in china to purchase the huawei phone over the american-owned iphone because you want to show pride in one of your hometown companies. and china is a massive market for iphone. is that an overworry? >> right now it is. you did not -- that is not the reason for the weakness this quarter. actually in mainland china they had record sales. in urban china, the iphone is the top -- is one, two, three and four best selling phone. in urban china. so, the weakness actually came with the macs and the ipads. if you take those out, which you can't do, iphone actually had record sales in china. so, i don't see that read-through. i do think that's a longer term risk. i think it's hard to put numbers on it when they're not seeing that right now. i think that's a bit overblown because it really goes back to the mac and the ipad is what caused the weakness in china. >> i know you're "halftime" and "fast money" frequenter. i'm going to pull out a "fast

money" game, would you rather on apple or microsoft? >> microsoft, i mean, i own both. going into the end of the year and first quarter, i think microsoft. microsoft earnings, i mean, they crush it on every single metric. and then you also have co-pilot just launched for everybody this week. i think the -- i think the adoption of co-pilot is exceptional. from a momentum perspective, microsoft over apple. >> really? you're talking about co-pilot, which is the a.i. assisted -- it's not that paperclip that used to exist 15 years ago. it's much better. it's not clippy. is microsoft just a better value or is it purely an a.i. play at this point? because apple, we talk about ar, augmented reality. we don't talk a lot about a.i. with apple. >> yeah, well, i mean, i think a.i. is such a nebulous term.

it means so many things to so many different people. with microsoft, their partnership and ownership of openai, not only is that integrated in every aspect of microsoft, they can monetize it immediately, not only with their cloud but openai. i think they're both wonderful companies. as an investor over the next few months, i feel microsoft has more positive metrics that will have people buy into the stock with positive energy than apple, which clearly was a disappointment. it can't -- it's not positive today when everything is up. you know, tells you what sentiment is on wall street right now. >> i know you own nvidia, so it's probably a dumb question. but do you lose any sleep at all about owning nvidia at this multiple, at this valuation? >> it's not that expensive of a

stock, first of all. historically it's been more expensive than it is today. i think you'll continue to see with nvidia over the coming quarters and years, because i do believe when jensen says, over the next decade that there's going to be a trillion dollar spend converting cpus into gpus. that's not all going to occur over the next two quarters. it's a volatile style. but long term to bet against jensen and team has been a losing game. i'm definitely long the stock. happy to own it and excited to own it over the next few years. >> some good names to own. you heard probably our -- maybe you didn't, our macro conversation at the top. is there anything about the macro economic landscape that worries you right now, bryn? >> i think right now, you know, we go into seasonality, which is real. actually, if you look just at the nasdaq, to put context around seasonality, the nasdaq median return for november going back to 1985 is 3.8%.

that's a really healthy return. so, i think investors want to be invested the next two months going into the end of the year. what does concern me though is ultimately inflation is the key thing. i do think that the fiscal policies fighting the fed, there are billions and billions of dollars, brian, that are still yet to be spent from state and local governments from the american recovery act. and that is fighting the fed. so, how do you bring down inflation when fiscal policy is actually going the other way to stimulate the economy? so, ultimately, yes, longer term, i think that the market's going to be more range-bound because i don't think inflation will come down to that 2% even remotely as easy as the market would tell you today. >> bryn talkington, requisite capital management partner. always good virtually to see you. have a great weekend. >> you, too. up next, your big money playbook. morgan stanley's crime toomey is back. he'll advise you on how he's

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. welcome back. happy friday. stocks across all shapes and sizes, big cap down to small cap, whatever, having their best week of the year. but as you also heard at the top of the show, some are worried about a real economic slowdown. if that happens, what would it mean for stocks? joining us at post 9 is morgan stanley's chris toomey. he runs one of the highest rated wealth advisory teams in all the land. chris, great to get free advice. we appreciate you coming down here. >> thanks for having me. >> you made the comment that rate hikes are not like a cobra bite, where you get bit and then you see the effects right away. it's more like a boa constrictor

where it's a slow, horrible process. i'm not sure i like the analogy, but that said, what you mean by it? it sounds like it's going to take a while for us really to feel the impact of these rate hikes. >> yeah. i think we are starting to feel it. i think everyone recognizesed that rates higher for longer was going to be a problem for the economy. i think it's the issue we're seeing is just taking a longer time for us to see it affecting the economy. i think if you look at why that is, i think it's the tremendous amount of liquidity put into the system during covid. now we're starting to really feel the air coming out of the economy, that debt situation, that debt problem, we saw it last week with regards to the treasury and the amount of issuance you'll see there. you see it in the corporate markets with regards to the fact that corporates have been a lot less likely to issue rates, and

the biggest problem we're starting to see is the consumer. consumer savings rate is 3%, well below historical averages. if you look at credit card debt, it's over $1 trillion. >> i push back on that because i've looked at it. i would say you're right. the overall credit card debt's up but debt service as a percent of income is still what appears to be a manageable level. >> depending on your quartile, paying 20% to 25% is not easy to do, even if your income is going up. if you look at the basic math on that, $1 trillion at 20%, that's $200 billion that isn't going into the economy, that's coming out of consumers' wallets. then you throw in student loans, then you throw in any of the other issues being financed now, whether you look at autos or other parts of the economy. this is a weight that's going to start weighing down on the overall economy. >> and i do worry about the middle class. i want to get -- i don't want the viewers and listeners to hold me to the number because

i'm going to pull it from memory but it is directionally correct. according to equifax or transunion, one of the two, half the people who had student loan debt deferred for three years, bought a home or a car or both. so, they weren't paying any student loans so they just bought something else. and that's great for them except i'm now worried they'll have both those payments or triple payments. >> exactly. >> some of those payments going up. i just don't -- with everything else inflationary, i do worry, how is that going to ultimately play out through the economy? you can't live on the credit card forever, can you? >> no. >> unless you're the u.s. government. >> exactly. that might not necessarily be the case. as we saw last week, right? the concern right now is if you look at the servicing that the u.s. treasury is doing on its debt, it's well above what we would expect. >> but they can print money and joe six-pack in ohio can't. >> right. that's true. but what you can see is a crowding out effect in the

treasury market, which is affecting other parts of the market, right? so if the treasury is issuing more and more debt because the interest on that debt gets higher and higher and the deficit gets larger and larger, you have other people that are going to be leaving the corporate market to buy treasuries, leaving the corporate market and high-yield market to buy treasuries and leaving the equity market, which we're seeing this year and buying treasuries. getting 5% to 6% for a lot of investors if you're required rate of return is 7%, that's pretty good right now. >> here's the sad reality. it kind of is a little off topic but it's friday and i'm here and i'll do what i want anyway. basically for the higher net worth people, your clients, for people that have assets and have cash, higher rates can be a very good thing. >> absolutely. >> i worry that what we've seen with the fed is they're going to exacerbate wealth and income inequality so massively because poor and middle class people are going to suffer from higher rates and wealthy people are

going to take advantage of higher rates. actually have more money to spend because they're going to get 4% and 5% and 6% tax-free interest owning these bonds. you put a million bucks into it. you go to vail for free because the federal government just paid for your trip. >> i typically like going to snowbird, but i get your point. >> utah, i can't. it's all right. >> i thinkings look, and that's something that we as investors are taking advantage of. if you look at the private credit market right now, private credit is yielding 8% to 10%. instead of being equity at the -- >> how do our viewers and listeners who have the means and ability to do that, how do you invest and play in the private credit market? >> there are opportunities -- >> besides call chris toomey. >> there are opportunities there. i think the point being, if you look at the equity market right now, there are greater risks in there that are being priced. you talked about bill gross, apollo and equity risk premiums. bill gross sees the same thing. these are interconnected.

>> what are the risks? >> the risks are if you really have a problem in the credit markets, whether it's in the consumer, whether it's in corporates, you have to have a revaluation with regards to equity. the idea that earnings are going to be 240 or 237 next year, i think that is a stretch too far and that you need to see the markets clear. meaning, prices have to come down, valuations have to come in line with the rest of the market. and so if you do have liquidity, if you do have an asset allocation and you are concerned about what's going to happen, having cash is not a bad thing because you can take advantage of that. you can take advantage of that rerating and put that money -- >> so, actionable item, is debt a better investment than stocks right now? i mean, i know it's a spectacularly broad statement, chris. private credit, if i can get 8%, 10% relatively risk-free -- >> that seems like a pretty good trade to me. >> you can get greedy.

what does jim say, pigs are going to get slaughtered -- hogs -- don't get greedy. >> that's always a good philosophy when it comes to investing. having cash is always a good strategy. having a plan is also a better strategy than hope. hoping that the fed is able to kind of balance this out, which is something that i don't think anyone expected. i think part of that is just the amount of liquidity that went into the system. it's drained out. now we're starting to deal with the consequences. >> if you got the cash right now, a lot of our cnbc listeners do, you can make a lot of money rent-free off the u.s. government. it's not a bad thing unless you're paying the other side of that. chris toomey, morgan stanley, really appreciate it. have a great weekend. >> thank you for having me. up next, we are tracking the biggest movers, not the smallest, not the middle, the biggest movers as we head into the close. kristina partsinevelos, don't give me that look. what are some of the biggest movers heading into the close? >> i'm saving that look for later. are you a rams fan, packers,

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welcome back. look at that. on a friday, that say good heat map to have. pretty much everything, except for energy, is in the green. we're seeing the best week of the year for stocks. i don't mean the magnificent seven. i mean everything. small caps and midcaps, the cindy and jan bradys. kristina partsinevelos asked us a question heading into the break. are you a rams fan or patriots fan? i'm not either. you know me, i'm a huge monday t montreal fan. >> i thought you were going to pivot to hockey. >> the edmonton elks. >> i don't know if you like that team, if you're a betting man,

if you're not, it doesn't matter, because draftkings is still operating loss but posted 57% increase in revenue with over 2.3 million payers in the quarter. maybe brian is one of them. they did say their expansion into new jurisdictions led to a boost in new customers and existing customers were more engaged and spending more money. maybe taylor swift played a role. i'm not sure those betters are bringing sweet green salads to football. down 15% after gross margin revenue and full year revenue fell short of wall street expectations. switching gears to cyber security fortinet, the worst performer on the s&p 500 and nasdaq. down 13% after lowered outlook. product revenue declined avenue a decade after a slowdown in firewall sales. and that's impacting palo alto, down 2.3%.

brian? >> that's it. kristina partsinevelos. >> i'm coming back in a bit. i'm not done. >> right before the end of the show, as i remember. i do the show just enough to not know what's going on. by the way, i'm a chargers fan -- i should say, i'm the chargers fan. last chance to weigh in on our question of the day. we asked you an extremely complicated question it will take you hours to figure out. will the s&p 500 end the year higher or lower than it is right now? you can head to @cnbcclosingbell on the x. we'll bring you the results right after this. we earn your trust. maintain our financial strength and stability. and deliver solutions that meet complex needs. massmutual. partnering with financial professionals, benefits brokers, and institutions.

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brutal year for walgreen. let's get to the results of your question of the day. we asked you this, will the s&p 500 end the year, a, higher, b, lower? well, the bullish bias continues. we'll call it 71% of you said higher. got about one-quarter saying lower. overall, the bullish bias continues. thank you, by the way, for voting in that poll. up next, it's been a major week for a lot of stocks, maybe none more than the media names. the question is, why? we'll have the answer and more when we take you in the market zone. by the way, do not forget to tune into "last call" tonight at 7:00 eastern time tonight.

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all right. like house music animation that tells you we are now live inside the market zone. we've got keith lerner here, always bringing the heat, great stats and crucial trading partner, julia boorstin on a big week for the media stocks. what does that mean for disney earnings next week? kristina partsinevelos back on the chipmakers as well. keith, i'm going to start with

you. i've stolen your stuff for my rbi many, many times, my man. in this week that was, is there something that sticks out to you any more than anything else? >> yeah, mr. sullivan, great to be with you on this friday. i will tell you, we were on the program last friday and our main message back then is that the pullback represented an opportunity because the market had moved back over 10%. we broke through some technical levels and sentiment got overly negative. as i think about this week, you know, we had a condition of being oversold and catalyst of yields moving back as well. i still think we have more room to run by the end of the year. i think we'll start to consolidate some of these gains. we almost had a full year of gains this week. some areas we were favoring like small caps were off 8% for the week. i think we consolidate some of these gains but ultimately we have more upside before this is done. >> consolidating the gains,

fancy wall street talk, even in atlanta for stocks to go down in the near term, is it not? >> well, i think there's more. after this runup off the lows, even on the s&p 500, you'll be testing around the 4400 level. i don't think you have to go down much. i think you basically chop around, digest some of these gains before you have more of a push higher. i will say going back to the discussion about small caps, they're still flat for the year even after a big gain this week. the equal-weighted index still flat for the year. and i think the technology area is still holding up relatively well. we like communication services. the way i would think about that is some choppiness over the next few weeks, but ultimately we move higher, if you didn't move in last week already. >> we'll leave it there. don't go anywhere because we're going to bring you back. it was nice the graphics ended on the communication sector. funny how that works out because paramount, warner bros., charter

all up big this week. disney next week. might see comcast action in there. julia boarjoining us. we talked about paramount, what a powerhouse. what was behind the media thing this week? >> well, brian, there were huge gains for the media stocks that reported earnings this week, on streaming and advertising progress. roku shares. they're up nearly 50% in the past week on what they call a, quote, solid rebound in third quarter video ads and guiding to similar ad growth in thefourth quarter. paramount shares are up 28.5% in the past week after that company's revenue beat on streaming strength and shrinking streaming losses. the company also announcing it is on a path to earnings growth next year. fox shares are up 8% after beating expectations with streaming growth, despite an overall add decline. now, all of this comes ahead of

disney and warner bros./discovery reporting their earnings on wednesday. disney shares are down 14% in the past 12 months. warner bros./discovery down 1.5% in the past year. for these two companies, investors are looking to see if they also report streaming strength, growing revenue, shrinking costs. these analysts and investors will be pushing for guidance on the fourth quarter. particularly when it comes to advertising, streaming subscriber growth and an impact of the hollywood strikes. i have to point out, those two stocks are both way up this week in movement with the other media companies. there's destined to be a sense of momentum here. >> disney, next week. we talked a lot about disney for a lot of reasons. is there one thing that sticks out to you about what we need to pay attention to the most in their earnings on wednesday? >> oh, there's so many different factors going on, brian, with disney. you have to remember, of course, they're also facing activist

scrutiny from nelson peltz. for bob iger, there's a lot of pressure to show cost controls are in place. he's done a lot of layoffs. nelson peltz and pearl mutter want to show he's succeeding with his digital transition while also keeping costs down. >> julia boorstin, thank you very much. let's move on to semiconductors, also the chipmakers, leading tech gains today. capping off one of their best weeks of the year. to be nasty on a friday, i will note that that index, while having a great week, is now just back to where it was a month ago. boo. >> boom, boom. chipmakers, investors are breathing some type of sigh of relief today because after a few better than expected earnings report we had this week, i'll get into that, i want to reiterate the smh. you said it went back to where it was x amount of wooctionz ago

but it's on pace for first positive in three weeks. that's the best since may. monolithic power, that's the big winner this week even though earnings fell in line with estimates. it's the a.i. demand and server cpu ramps that helped drive this name, es especially ramps with intel that helped drive their enterprise division. any time you say you have revenues in the pipeline with a.i., you start to see this reversal in the stock. other chip names, amd outperforming, also on a new a.i. chip and improving client business. the business consists of pc sales. qualcomm up 12% after showing signs of improved smartphone sales. they called out strength in china in the upcoming quarter. a.i. darling nvidia in the top four chip performers this week. we still have to wait until november 21st for its earnings day. silicon carbide producer on semi. it's the only constituent down

on the week. up today about 2.5%. down 18%. it's worst week since 2020 because the company posted primarily week q4 guidance. there's some concerns about auto demand as well. >> a good lesson with on semi that not all semiconductor companies do the same thing. we lump them into chipmakers. there are chipmakers that do this or that and some are doing great, some are having problems. >> to that point, the analog chipmakers are not doing very well. those exposed to auto sector not doing as well. we're seeing maybe the a.i. euphoria starting to come down a little bit. yes, to your point, can definitely not lump them all together, although it's easy to do so. >> chrikristina, thank you. we'll see you later. final word on "closing bell." the market zone keith, it's a friday, it's been a good week. leave us with some optimism. you said a little consolidation. is this the start of the santa claus rally we like to get?

>> i think it is. if you look at the seasonality, which we went right on cue at the end of october, with he started to move up, and we're in a good period from november to december, so i think ultimately to answer your question of the day, i think we end higher from year end from where we are today. i'm also being realistic after being bullish last week. we had a big move up. market moving two steps forward, one step back is normal. as we said, that fancy atlanta word, consolidation, moved sideways would be normal. i look at that as an opportunity to get ready for more upside before the end of the year. >> what's maybe the next big data point we are waiting for? is there one thing? a jobs number, gdp number, anything you and your team are the most laser focused on, keith? >> i think the most laser focused is the ten-year treasury. part of our bullishness last week is we thought the ten-year hit the high. we want this to stay below that

5% level. we're at 4.5% today. i would continue to watch that closely. that's probably the most important indicator for this market. >> keith, i konts hear a word you said but it sounded good. thank you very much. that does it for us. the nasdaq is up 1.4%. we'll see you on "last call" tonight at 7:00. i can hear nothing. i'm going to send it to morgan brennan and jon fortt in "overtime." >> what a day, what a week. it's the best week for stocks of the year. that is the scorecard on wall street. the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell overtime." coming up, keith rabois will talk to us about the setup for venture capital in this higher rate environment and the state of e-commerce through the lens his startup open store. >> we'll talk to the ceo of r redfin as that stock jumps 20% on the back of earnings. we'll get a take on the broker