"final trades." >> veryppointing quarter. i still like them long-term. >> weiss says it wasn't lily, even though we both know it was. you're wrong, weiss. >> palo. >> wnyy resorts. >> see you on "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ >> thank you very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead this hour. should the fed give credit for the fall in inflation? a new article says no. at best, they kept it from getting worse. we'll debate that and talk about why rates may have to stay at these levels longer than the market currently thinks. plus, two ways to play the trend of people being stuck in homes they bought with low mortgage rates. we'll talk to two ceos. we'll look at what that tells us about housing globally. disney, affirm and insta

card reports. but first, the latest numbers. dom chu, it's been a weaker picture. >> we have lost momentum throughout the course of the day. right now, it's across the board. the dow down about 1/3 of 1%, 34,050, down about 100 points. the s&p 500 currently sits at 4368, down about nine to ten points, one quarter of 1%. to give you an idea of the trading range today to gauge where we are right now, we were up roughly 13 points at the highs and down 19 points at the lows. so we were positive modestly at one point and have drifted lower. the nasdaq composite, off one quarter of 1%. 13,600, the last trade there. one notable feature of the market right now is the multi, multimonth low that we are seeing in oil prices. right now, u.s. benchmark, down

about 3%. just over the course of the last two trading sessions is where we have dipped below that longer term trendline, the 200-day average on a rolling bases. the last time we drifted below that level was in the mid level of july. so this is the lowest level we have seen since july. we'll see whether or not there is any kind of a floor for this, but it's been a decent down trend over the last coup le of months. we talked about the closing high that we saw record wise for microsoft shares. right now, up about one half of 1%. still a stone's throw away from the intraday record that we saw going back to july. but on a positive day here overall for microsoft, that level is the one we're watching, about $368 or so. so watch those particular shares. we are pushing higher towards

those intraday records. again, closing record yesterday for one of the most important stocks in the marketplace. back over to you. >> dom, thank you. we appreciate it. stocks have generally been rallying since the fed meeting last week on hopes they're done hiking rates, especially as inflation levels have come down. but "the wall street journal" says the fed shouldn't get credit for that drop, because the best we can say about the fed is they stopped things from getting worse. so what should we make of the fed's policy moves and is the market correct in expecting that rate cuts come next? let's ask a chief market strategist and steve liesman. so glad you could both join. steve, let me start with this, the article and set us up in terms of the debate out there on the street. i don't think there's any doubt that the fed's hikes certainly helped break the back of high inflation. it's just that consumers want to see more relief on the price levels than what we have seen. >> yeah, you hit that term exactly right. consumers want the price level,

and the policymakers going for the level of increase or the rate of increase of prices. so there's a bit of a difference in terms of the goals there. look, i get where the journalist is coming from on this article, and a lot makes sense in the sense that we have had stronger growth, and inflation has come down despite that stronger growth. in some areas, it hasn't been as much change as you would have thought. i think the context is important here. the fed went into this fight against inflation with at least one hand tied behindis back. that's because two of the areas that it has the most impact in, most times when it's hiking rates, autos and homes, were areas that were in extreme deficit relative to the supply that should be out there. we know we've been underbuilding homes for a long time. we know there's a huge demand for that. on top of that, the demand for housing, the unique demand for housing that came out of the

pandemic, which is for those homes where you could have an office in there. cars were down, and there was a big problem in terms of getting the automobiles in terms of supply. so while the fed was trying to tamp down on these areas, and the two areas that have the easiest impact on, there was incredible demand for both of these products on the other side. so the extent it has had an effect, it's done so with a tide running against it. >> dave, a lot of people have been looking for relief on that front for an end to rate hikes and maybe some moderation in mortgage rates and so forth. but you are warning people not to get carried away over the quarters with this idea that cuts are coming. why not? >> well, honestly, kelly, it's the same story we have been telling since the beginning of the year. people were forecasting rate cuts since september, and clearly we're here in november debating whether they're going to hike one more time. so i don't think the argument has changed much. it's been an argument that, you know, we framed as, the fed not

being as restrictive as maybe the rates market would suggest because of the size of the balance sheet and a few other factors related to the strength of the consumer. but to go back to steve's analysis and the article that you referenced, i think it's an interesting article and a really interesting time to debate what's in there. because i do believe the article had some good points in that it probably wasn't so much the fed that brought inflation down. we have had very strong growth. one of the fastest disinflation periods since world war ii, only been surpassed by the deflations of '75 and '82, which were both bad years economically. so it is a very interesting story, but i think it's rooted in the whole idea and the misconception that the inflation itself was the fed's fault. so i think you have to take that article back. if you are not going to blame -- or credit for the fed on getting

the inflation down because of supply side stories and supply side logistical issues that were related to the reopening, i think you also put the same supply shock in play for the inflation that we got between q2 of 2021 into the number of 2022, which the article is not doing and most of the critics were not doing. i know you want to get back to a couple other things, but i want to put criticism where it is due, and that's with all the folks in the summer of 2022 who were criticizing the fed for being too late and generating all of that inflation, when it was really supply shock story. the fed staying on top of it and keeping inflation expectations anchored, as the article said. but most importantly, the big miss was all of these folks at that brookings conference, i think it was a larry ball comments on it, that talked

about how the unemployment rate was going to have to go to 6.5% for two years to get inflation back to 2%. that's been the biggest miss, and that's where the criticism should be. we didn't have to crush demand to get inflation down because it was a supply shock to begin with. >> we see markets moving. i want to ring in rick santelli. walk us through this, what just happened, what is the grade you give this today? >> well, the trade was charlie minus, c minus, a bit below average. let's go through it. 40 billion ten-year notes, that's versus 35 billion on our last package. and the yield, 4.519%. the yield was a bit higher, higher yield means lower price. if you are selling, you want a higher price. right there you get marked down a bit. what was notable is the direct bidders were extremely light. 15.2%, that equals a february 23rd date on the nose, but to

find a lower number, you have to go back to february of '22. so that really makes that category of direct bidders, which is so important, weak. and 15.1% go to primary dealers. that's the most they had to take since april. now, why isn't the market more responsive here? i'm a little surprised that it stopped at 4.5%. but maybe technicians aren't as surprised. let's go to the charts very quickly. here's the ten-year note yield chart. these are arcis. sometimes you need a compass to find out where the market is going. a pro-tractor will work, as well. these are 89 cycles. add up 55 and 34, so 89 is the number. so there are a few days off here and there, talking trading days, not actual days for your technicians out there.

so exact cycles, picking up all the key points. so here we are, and we all know on the 23rd, we had the outside day, we did the same thing. so that's one reason. here's two reasons. i'll give you a third reason why we've been going down in yield but may stop, and that is we have a head and shoulders formation. the neckline comes in at 4.5%. so this is a huge area, the weekly close above or below it will dictate whether we go back down here or retest 5%. back to you. >> rick, this is a little bit of a head scratcher. we see yields dropping. yet there wasn't as strong demand as expected. those two things don't usually go hand in hand. >> well, what we are seeing yields dropping is, is that the auction, if you take a step back, yes, it wasn't a great auction. but many traders are looking at all the big stories that are out there that i'm sure you have seen that we are seeing a huge

amount of buying at these levels, and i think that the mogul of the auction was sort of small. the amount of longs that want to come in the market that think the highs are in is a very large number. so be careful. i'm not saying yields can't go down. what i'm saying is you may have a lot of company. this 4.5% is quite important. >> thank you, rick. let me get a comment from steve and david. steve, we could almost go below 4.5% on the ten-year today as we clear this hurdle. how would the fed take that, do you think? >> i just want to -- i'll get to that in a second. i disagree with rick on the grade with this action. this was the story of the day. i couldn't wait till rick came on to tell us how the government did at selling $40 billion, and there's a big question whether or not the market has an appetite for it.

yields came down, and the market took down the action at that lower yield. so when i see this number here at 4.51, i think -- >> it's the same yield. >> rick, steve's mic is still on. >> my point is if they're selling it at that yield and people are buying it, i get the issue of them not having to take too much of it. but it was a big risk, and the risk seems to, at least for the moment, we seem to have passed it by. so i give it a bigger grade and i'm relieved that the market did balling balk at this. >> yields are still lower. go ahead, rick. >> okay. listen, the stock market is looking at yields, yields are moving lower. steve, i don't disagree with much of what you are saying, but

in the old days, you could have the solomon brothers or goldman come in at put bids in. these are dutch auctions. so it really isn't equating -- investors aren't sure where the yield is, so it's not going to necessarily affect the behavior. that's the beauty of a dutch auction. c minus isn't bad, but direct bidders, dealers taking too much and having an average for the bid to -- the bid to yield. all of those aspects, to me, look like a sort of average auction. the big thing, one other thing i want to point out, kelly, i always only look at the closes. the intraday moves, never hardly end up on any of my charts. these are all closing prices. the dailies are important, the weeklies are more important. the quarterlies are the most important. most technicians have all of

those charts. >> dave, i was going to bring you in on a different note. could it be that people agree with your suspicion or anticipation that the fed could, at some point, return back to the market in some way, and that's also what is helping yields perform better here? >> what do you mean, return back to the market, kelly, in terms of what? >> i don't want to put words into your mouth, but if they start to use the balance sheet as a way of loosening instead of rate cuts. >> look, i think the balance sheet has two ways it can be used. one is qeqt, and one is what they did during svb, which is backstop the market in case there's an event in a sector, say commercial real estate goes bad, and they decide to create a funding facility to deal with that like regional banks. i didn't keep those in separate compartments and realize that they're very willing to use the balance sheet to deal with

financial instability. it's been very successful this year. it was successful for the ecb and the bank of england over the course of 2022, with the italian government bond market. and i think they would be more than happy to let the balance sheet do work for them if there's a problem in a specific sector. i don't think they're going to abandon qt any time soon. i think that's very unlikely. so the balance sheet is there for emergencies. the balance sheet is there for pickups that we aren't really necessarily taking into account. i think it acts as a bit of a new fed put, something we've been writing about to our clients recently. slightly different fed put than the one with rates, and probably takes the rate put that we're used to, which is why buy ten-year notes and securities to lock in the longer rates, because things get messy. it takes a little bit away from that. so i'm not in the camp that there is a big duration trade to do here. i think the market is in a little better balance than it

was at 5%. >> steve, i'll give you a quick last word. >> i agree with what david is saying. the next move of the fed is going to be cuts. there's a big question about when that happens. the market seems to be using may, june, and july as their expression of hawkishness and dovishness. may, they get more dovish. july, they get a little more hawkish. i think that's the first cut. there will be cuts next year, i think that's fair to say. but the cuts i believe will happen in the context of the fed pivoting around more or less the same real rate. so i don't think the fed will loosen very much. i think the fed will need to stay consistent, and if inflation does indeed drop, the fed funds rate will drop along with that to maintain a consistent differential between

inflation and the fed funds rate. so don't get too excited about it when the fed does cut rates. >> i just want to mention the market reaction. we're kind of back to the look we had before the ten-year auction. i think people are trying to figure this out. thank you both for now. we appreciate it. coming up, we have two views on the housing market. how the home repair and maintenance space is holding up. and then we'll talk with the ceo of masonite. let's check in on the gig economy. we'll talk to the ceo of upwork, fresh off of that report. as we head to break, a quick look at the markets. the dow heading back toward session lows after initially rallying somewhat on that ten-year auction. down 111 points, a third of a percent. the s&p is only down seven. nasdaq down 22. watch that ten-year note, now back up to around 4.52%.

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strong q3 result. the company recorded an 11% jump in revenue from the prior year and raised full-year guy dance, on track to deliver a record 2023. let's bring in the ceo and president, hayden brown. hayden, welcome. >> thanks, kelly. great to be here. >> we talked last quarter how people were looking for more freelance help with ai. is that still a key factor here? >> it's a huge theme right now, kelly. i think businesses of all sizes are trying to figure out how to adopt these new technologies into their work flows, into their business products and offerings. we're seeing tremendous growth in this area. it's off of a small base, but it's the fastest growing category of work we see on the platform. generative ai and machine learning is up 62% year over year. we're seeing search activity up 20 x from 2022 when chatgbt broke onto the scene. so there's a lot of activity in

this area. >> what else is driving the growth that you posted? >> well, we're seeing strength across all the categories we serve. our marketplace is diverse, with 120 plus categories of work and serving small to large businesses. the past quarter, we saw expansion quarter over quarter. so our sales team is executing well, despite the macro backdrop that continues to be challenging. and we're seeing, again, a lot of product innovation. we launched partnerships with open ai in q2 with amazon, click app, a number of other companies. this quarter, and our own gpt pro service, which came to market this quarter, where we're seeing a lot of innovation happening, and customers are hiring freelancers to do the work they need in this macro environment. they still have a lot of things to get done, and they're looking for solutions to get it done. >> do you think some of this is

driven by people who want to stay remote and have that flexibility? we're seeing so many people being called back to the office, and i'm surprised that freelancing is up three points from 2021 to 39%, in terms of the share of professionals doing this. 60 million americans, these numbers are much larger than i would expect. i would have thought they would be going back to something more "normal." >> the world has changed, kelly. through the pandemic, through the last decades of, you know, recessions, things like that, people have seen that the full-time stable job isn't what it used to be. when we talk to professionals, they're increasingly realizing working at freelance, gives them not just the flexibility on where to work but the independence of knowing that they can always earn that income regardless of the economic conditions, because they have a portfolio of clients that are working with, that they are not dependant on a single employer

who might lay them off. so the calculous for workers has changed, to give them economic stability and other benefits around independence is what's going on. and businesses have woken up to the fact that if they want to tap into the best and most highly skilled workers out there, they need to be having a strategy around freelance workers. at this time, the generative ai revolution hatchppening, they n these workers with those skills. >> what should we expect to see if the labor market broadly is weakening? what would you be on the lookout for? what might your results show in terms of the mix of what employers or employees are looking for and their activity? if there's anything you can tell us about what you think is going on with the broader labor market

and its strength, i would be very curious. >> we've been doing a lot of work to untether our own results from the broader macro economic trend. i think that was part of the strength in our results this quarter, certainly that's a theme we're working on going forward. as the economy continues to, you know, do what it's going to do, and we're not the ones to predict that. what we are seeing is businesses still need to get work done. they need to do so cost effectively and with skilled workers who often aren't in their region. so they're turning to freelance workers to do that work. so i think that is something that has been an emerging theme, not just in the last few years, but over the last two decades that we have been in this business. we have seen the ups and downs in the economy, and there has been this enduring trend with the rise of freelance happening, despite what the economy is doing. that has been very in tact. >> and continuing post pandemic, which is remarkable. hayden, thanks for joining us.

we appreciate it. >> thank you, kelly. >> hayden brown, ceo of upwork. coming up, amazon is on the way to become a bigger player in the health care space. those details coming up. in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. that rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business.

welcome back to "the exchange." it's been a volatile market. the vix is pretty tame today, but the dow was up 100, down 156. we came back somewhat, and now we're pairing those declines now, down about 89 points. eli lily shares popping, off the fda approved a diabetes drug.

the fda has approved it now for weight loss, sending shares up 1.5%. it will be marketed under the name zepabound. and kellanova, formally known as kellogg, beat on the top and bottom line. this is the snacks business showing resilience. let's get to tyler mathisen for a cnbc news update. >> thank you. joe biden and chinese president xi planning to restart mili military-to-military communications. china suspended communications last year after nancy pelosi visited taiwan. that's a no-no in beijing. the biden administration looking to lower the risk of a military standoff between the two countries. a los angeles man exchanged

gunfire with two people who attempted to rob him. surveillance video shows the homeowner walking to the front door as two masked robbers approach him. one robber pulled a gun on the man, and the homeowner responded by pulling out his own concealed handgun. the parties fired at each other, though no injuries were reported. no arrests have yet been made. on item from the titanic is being sold this week. a rare men fru april 11th, 1912, shows what the restaurant was serving on board just three days before the ship sunk. a pocket watch from a russian immigrant who died in the accident, also being sold at a uk auction. the auction house said the watch expected to sell for more than $60,000, and the menu could go for $74,000. kelly, back to you. >> couldn't quite make out that text. >> i wouldn't know what to order there. >> so interesting to see what's held up over time and what hasn't. tyler, see you on "power lunch."

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welcome back to "the exchange." two under the radar housing plays out with earnings recently. home maintenance and repair company front door beat on the top and bottom lines last week and masonite reported a miss. we have both ceos joining us. welcome to both of you. appreciate your time today. bill, those shares up 22% since earnings last week. you raised full-year guidance, so talking about profit margin impro improvements. what's driving that? >> we've had a very good year. our revenue was up in the third quarter 8%. we really have done a nice job of controlling our costs, making it a solid top line, and really doing some things within the company to control our costs, which is really a big part of our cold cost area, because of contractor costs we have to

control. so the team has done a great job. >> i would ask you about the market house more broadly, but i am curious how you are keeping such a tight lid on expenses right now. what are the methods of doing so? >> we have a contractor relationship team that has worked closely with our contractors. we have 16,000 contractors across the u.s. that we maintain close relationships with. we have done a nice job of satisfying our consumer demand with those contractors. we have had an increase in the amount of preferred contractor where is we get better pricing from them. so we've been able to do that, and really control our overall expenses. >> how do consumers find you? there's task rabbit, there's so many different ways to find -- you can call it a handyman or help with home maintenance. what differentiates you? >> well, one is through the real estate market. we can talk about that. that's been challenged,

obviously. two is direct to consumer. come to our website, sign up and call our number. the biggest source of consumers is what we call renewals. the customers we currently have. we have a 76% renewal rate, which has been going up, which we're very pleased about, which indicates we're doing a nice job of satisfying consumers with the increase in renewals. >> a lot of these relationships kick off at the home buying process, is that right? >> the home buying is direct to consumer. >> as you mentioned, i would love to know at a time when the market is almost frozen, that must be quite a headwind. >> it is. you know the numbers on the home sales. looks like they could fall under 4 million homes relative to 6 million a few years ago. so we maintained our share of new consumers during that time frame. but it is a headwind, no doubt. >> so what do you plan for the next couple of years? the fact that you still managed

to pull different levers through these environments. >> we have two approaches. our largest brand is american home shield, which is in the home warranty space, a 12-month contract, it covered repair and maintenance for the 23 home systems that you have with appliances. our other effort is called front door. it's got the company name. it's an app, what we call telehealth for the home. you're able to video chat with us, talk to one of our experts which are in appliances, hvac, plumbing, electrical, to diagnose your problem before you have to get a repairman coming out. we can fix it about 25% of the time over the video chat. if not, we'll send you one of our 16,000 contractors to do the repair. >> quick final question. is your customer feeling the pain just in general of tighter finances, are they 3pulling bac at all, or do they still have

the opportunity to spend on the homes they're now more or less stuck in? >> i think this is one of the things we're in a transition, because home sales have been so strong. now people are saying in their homes. the systems are declining every day, every week. so we're finding that more and more people realize if they're going to stay in their home, they're going to need the protection that our on demand offering brings. so we're very bullish about our prospects. >> bill cobb, thank you for joining us today. >> thanks, kelly. let's get to masonite now, shares down 6%. the company reported net sales fell 4% thanks to weakening demand. howard, great to see you again. this is a heavily geared business towards home construction or what is the majority? is it fixup? where do most of the sales come from? >> thanks kelly, for inviting me to be on. our sales are about split

between new construction and residential repair model. both of which, of course, are under pressure. i think the market is adjusting to the higher rates that we are seeing. >> that is no doubt the case, and obviously, the doors you make are beautiful. these are big ticket items. so is your expectation we'll be going through a couple of years of a soft patch, or will different kinds of sales drivers kick in? >> we are very bullish on long-term macros. obviously, housing is underbuilt, which bodes well for new construction. and the aging housing stock, houses are getting older, which means repair and remodel is also going to be very strong. so we're bullish on the long-term macros. we knew coming into 2023 that we were in a cyclical market and likely to be a down cycle. we're executing our playbook, and i'm proud of the team

delivering what are solid results in q3 despite the challenging macro environment. >> are you going to continue to move up market? i see this acquisition of fleetwood, a leading manufacturer of glass doors for luxury homes. absolutely all the show piece homes, it's all glass. is that one way that you're looking to insulate yourselves, no pun intended. >> right. it certainly is a closed a jay sen si to our doors, so fleetwood makes a beautiful door that indoor/outdoor living friend is obviously growing, as people want to integrate the indoor and outdoor. so we see this as a premium product that absolutely can help support our growth and aggressive objectives for our long-term plan. >> i have to imagine you're looking to achieve that higher selling price, maybe increase profit margins. i must be tough to do, because are you facing any deflationary pressures as that shifts to post

pandemic quietness? >> it's interesting. we're not seeing as much deflation as we thought. we expected low to mid single digit deflation. it's know closer to low digit deflation. doors have been thought about more like a commodity for many years. as we think about the value that they can add, and we talked to consumers consist tently who appreciate the value doors can add, whether it's privacy or light or style. so as we lean into those features that can add value to homeowners, we think we can decommodityize this. >> are they more feeling the pinch in europe than americans? >> they are. that market is not great today. however, again, we expected that in our business. so we're planning for it. we're doing the right things relative to our cost structure.

that market too looks a lot like the u.s. market long-term. so we're very optimistic about the long-term prospects in the uk. >> howard, thanks for joining us today. >> my pleasure. still to come, amazon, prime, shares of the tech giant are up about 15% since they bought one medical and they're ramping up their push in the thpa.sce that's next. dow is down 68. but if it's using untrusted data can you trust the results? your business doesn't just need ai, it needs the right ai for your business. introducing watsonx a platform designed to multiply output by tailoring ai to your needs. when you watsonx your business, you can train, tune and deploy ai, all with your trusted data. let's create the right ai for your business with watsonx. ibm. let's create. when you're looking for answers, it's good to have help. because the right information, at the right time, may make all the

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welcome back. amazon prime is looking to be members one stop shop, not just for shopping but also streaming. and even for screenings. they're offering discounted subscriptions to primary care provider one medical. let's bring in diedra bosa with all the details. diedra? >> i like that, kelly, streaming and screaming. so this is a bet from amazon. not just on health care but on brick and mortar, as well. amazon acquired one medical last year for $3.9 billion, and that was offering it to its prime members at a discount. $99 a year that is a discount of $100. sit a network, one medical, a

network of boutique primary care practices in the united states around major cities. users can access their primary care doctors through the app or in-person appointments at brick and mortar locations. i spoke with the vp of prime and asked him how it fits into this broader prime ecosystem. >> there have been many americans struggling with how to get access to health care on a reliable basis. just some facts. 40% of americans don't have a primary care physician. on average, they wait 26 days to see a primary care physician. with one medical, you can have same-day appointments. i think this is just us trying to remove some of the friction of daily life, add some savings, as ultimately have one simple membership, something that provides shopping,savings, streaming, and now positive health outcomes.

>> so he says the primary care space is ripe for disruption, but i asked him why would primary care doctors choose an amazon over a player that's more entrenched with more history in this area, like united health? it's incredibly competitive to sign on primary care doctors. here's what he said. >> i think ultimately the proposition for doctors and registered nurses to work with one medical and to work with amazon is they believe in the vision, which is to make health care, which has been for too long an opaque but really necessary part of daily life. make it much more transparent, make it much more simple for everyone to access. >> so it's all about ease of access, which is really what a lot of the prime offerings are about, from streaming to groceries, to one or two-day shipping. health care, though, this is going to be tricky, because sit

a highly regulated space where amazon has a mixed track record. back to you. >> diedra, thank you very much. we'll keep our eyes on their further ambitions. we have a news alert on the green light capital. let's get over to leslie. >> i was able to obtain the latest investor letter, writing we have limited exposure to the u.s. consumer. he thinks investors have been conditioned to ignore it. he said the firm's working thesis is that the leaders of countries that seek to displace the u.s. as the dominant global power would prefer a different u.s. president. higher oil prices would squeeze the consumer and likely cause a recession, and he says the resulting inflation would also put the federal eserve in an uncomfortable position of having to fight rising prices at a time of rising unemployment. the firm is on a buyer's strike again and didn't establish long positions during the quarter. the firm reduced its gross

exposure to deploy capital into new ideas. he said the current extreme levels of geopolitical tension will lead to lower stock prices over a time frame that lasts more than a couple of hours. at that point, he says they intend to be positioned to buy beaten down stocks and some truly distressed debt should the opportunity present itself. the firm returned 12.9% in the third quarter, besting the s&p 500 by more than 16 percentage points. the firm returned 27.7% in the first nine months, beating the index by nearly 15 percentage points. so the strategy that they have now in place is working. >> i remember when he came on "halftime" several months back and effecttively said he thinks this is an environment where his strategy also do well and here we are with nice results. coming up, disney posted a topline beat in only 12 of the past 20 quarters. and with no sales on the street,

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we'll look at disney, affirm and instacart. lee, it's good to see you. let's kick things off with disney. investors focus yet again on streaming versus linear. the fate of assets like espn, the impact of the after strike and potentially more activism from trion. only has the stock down slight lit on the year, but last year was its second best of 8%. are you a buyer here, mr. munson? >> no, it's been my biggest disaster in my book of any individual stocks i've had since the lockdowns. my core thesis wasn't any of those problems. it was that parks were always going to remain strong, always had pricing power, could always raise their ticket prices. that's no longer the case. i think we have a cultural shift where kids have youtube, tiktok,

and a million other things. don't be fooled by disney adults. i don't care how much hulu costs. i'm done with the stock. they need the best ceo in for fortune 500 company. i'm done. >> what about the whole idea of buying when there's blood in the street? is self-loathing a good criteria for buying? >> could it pop? could they beat earnings? sure. i'm thinking about structurally going forward. i don't think that content is going to pick up the younger generation so on a secular basis going forward, i don't think, i think they're going to have a lot of great success with no profits and streaming and ings the idea this brand has a huge mote around and the kids are going to glom on to "star wars," that's fundamentally flawed. doesn't mean you can't make money in the next six months.

if you want to hold this for the next three, four, five years, you've got to believe it's there. i don't believe the mouse is with the kids anymore. >> julia boorstin has an interview with bob iger coming up at 4:00. let's talk affirm, buy now pay later. they could benefit from consumer weakness but compass points high rates should pressure and loan de dequincys are a risk. are you a buyer? >> i'm a value oriented guy. companies that lose this much money, i want to say buy but i'm hesitant. a lot of analysts are so poo poo on affirm. affirm is not a commodity. they have a unique business model. amazon picked them for b2b for a reason. people don't like math and affirm, you at least know what you're into when you're doing these payments.

so i think people are analyzing the stock wrong. the issue though, we've got to hear from management about operating earnings. we have to see when they'll turn a profit but i think fundamentally, people read the stock wrong. >> let's move on to instacart. legally maple bear. reporting their first ever earnings. analysts are concerned about market share as uber and door dash and the grocers themselves are all jockeying for ecommerce. price sensitive consumers may opt out of delivery. shares down 9% from the $42 opening price and they're below the $30 initial pricing. would you pick these up? >> i actually like this. i know people think i've lost my mind. i don't like disney at a great value and i like instacart? why are we so concerned that they're only making a profit because of ad sales? i think that's great. you've got to figure out some way to make the delivery thing work. also, instacart is not door

dash. it's about your local grocery store. and that's where they excel. that's what they're niche is. if you actually use the products and stop looking at stock screeners on your bloomberg terminal, you're going to notice there's a big difference between that and door dash. i like they make a profit. i like they figured out how to make money on something ever since my dot com days, nobody's been able to figure it out. sell ads. people love it. >> real quickly, but what about arm? would you be a buyer there? >> i like arm. you know why? stop focusing on the saturation in phone sales. are they going to eat lunch in automotive and remember, there's a huge growth potential at arm for servers and the server chip set. we're using something called x 86s. it's all about power plus electricity usage.

electricity is going to be anish go issue going forward. >> great to see you. we appreciate your time. that does it for the exchange but next on "power lunch," shares of realty income are rising after their revenue beat. we'll talk to the ceo about that and the big rentce acquisition. tyler's getting ready. i'll join him on the other side of the break. .. we can make this work. it can help you reach them with confidence. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about. (♪♪) we're lucky to have this team working for us. our therapists give their all each day, by helping those who need it most. we take great pride not just in the job our team does,

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welcome to "power lunch" alongside kelly evans, i'm tyler mathisen. markets lower on pace to snap long winning streaks. we are connecting the dots from lower oil prices to falling bond yields to rising stocks. >> you've got all that. the nasdaq is lower now. it's on pace to snap an eight-session win streak. up 8% during that time. oil falling 10% and now just above 75% a barrel. bond yields also falling to near