>> so final thought. you say 2% gains over the holiday season in sales. who is the main beneficiary there? is it walmart? >> we would say any retailer that has inventory right. >> right. >> has been growing traffic is in a better place to win. >> thank you for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. all right. kelly, thanks. welcome to "closing bell." scott wapner live from post nine this make or break hour begins with the run withway for the rally, whether it is as long as the bulls suggest it is. we'll ask the president of merrill wealth management, her first tv interview today and we're looking forward to speaking with lindsay hawn your scorecard, it's been a mostly muted day for stocks. investors are digesting the past couple days. what can you say a big story, energy. oil dropping below $73 a barrel.

the sector tracking for another rough ride there it is. energy as a space the xle down 2.3% retail quite the story too walmart shares, they're sliding on that company's cautious outlook. as far as tech goes, microsoft did hit a new all-time high today but cisco shares are sharply lower. down by more than 11% after the company's lackluster guidance. yields, they're mostly lower too. perhaps reacting to the weaker consumer news today. a tick higher in jobless claims. our talk of the tape, whether stocks are cleared for takeoff as jeremy siegel suggested here yesterday. let's ask liz young, sofi's hea of investment strategy welcome back. >> thank you >> is this all -- now suggesting >> i think it's all clear or a surprise to anybody. i don't think it's all clear i think there's been a tone shift this week. i think we'll look back and

think it was very pivotal. i would say the same thing on a day we were rallying we went from anticipating the end of hikes to the beginning of cuts. >> pricing them in too and march and may. >> not only that, but pulled cuts forward the first cut was going to be in july now two cuts priced in july, the first in may although rationale that we had a rally and some relief and a period where stocks were really pressured not only by rising yields, but a resurgence in inflation, it's only rationale the opposite would drive a rally, but the size of the reaction, particularly in yields, 2-year yield that had an intraday move of 24 basis points, that's huge, in the 98th percentile for the 2-year, that type of reaction and size is a different tone if we continue to have this big of reactions on just marginally cooler data i think that's where people will start to get worried we can't stop it from falling

too fast. >> marginally cooler referring to cpi and ppi marginally cool but trending in the right direction. >> absolutely sploo. >> we're not expecting a massive drop month over month or year over year in those reads, but where we're going might be good enough to say i think we could have the soft landing some have been betting on and if that is the case why not buy stocks finally. >> it's still a possibility, right. i'm not counting that out. it's still a possibility we get things down to a more manageable level in inflation, labor market cools, but it's palatable. >> that's still possible. >> isn't that's what's happening in. >> yes. >> not possible, that is what's happening? >> the current state of affairs, yes. the concern is that that's always how it starts and then it usually picks up steam like a snowball rolling down a hill usually picks up steam as we go so there's a concern can we stop it before it becomes really a big problem?

that's what i'm watching this week and these big moves i think that not just the marginal cooling, yes, that's a positive thing, but the fact that we missed expectations. now we're not sure that expectations about inflation are going to be correct, and it starts to bubble up this fear that is it going -- is it too much, right. did it go down too far too fast and a situation where there's demand destruction none of that has been confirmed and won't be for a while yet the market is in a purgatory state and typically the market does hold up well after the last hike and before the first cut. but as you near that first cut, is when things get a lot more choppy. >> what if we don't need to get all the way down to 2%, like james gorman, the outgoing ceo of morgan stanley was speaking to cnbc asia and said is 2% absolutely necessary my personal view is no but directionally to be heading in that around 3% i think it's an acceptable outcome. what if he's right for the fed,

regardless of what the fed says. >> right. >> what if 3% is acceptable for the time being >> the market will decide if it's acceptable and the economic data will tell us if it's acceptable and we can stop the bleeding at that point i don't think the fed will say we've changed our target. >> of course not. >> but the statement that jerome powell has made, i'm not going to quote him directly, but something along the lines of a sustainable path toward 2% what is would satisfy them. so it doesn't mean that we have to hit 2% on the dot and we've got about four different inflation metrics we look at, every one isn't going to hit that at the same time. >> isn't the market going to move well in advance of hitting the 2% and maybe this is the -- the bulls would say this is the beginning of that and that's why they're looking at areas other than mega cap and saying this is the moment we had to wait a long time, whether the russell which has given some back today, 1.3%, it's down, but other areas of the market down because they were depressed from a cyclical

standpoint thinking i need to prepare for the worst. >> yes lift up the hood, look what's happening today. yields are down and the rus russerussell 2,000 is the worst index we're looking at if there was a cyclical resurgence and optimism well deserved small caps would be doing better than this today energy would be doing better than this today. there's still at least just some disagreement in the market itself about whether or not this is sustainable and whether or not this is a positive economic signal. >> so maybe a little bit of bad news being bad news in some parts of the market. if you have a weakening consumer and what you've heard out of target and walmart and some others would lead you to believe there are cracks finally that's going to hit demand and oil is falling further, makes sense >> it already has hit demand i don't think there's anybody that can say there's no evidence of a weakening consumer or slowed spending. there's a lot of evidence. but the -- >> from a high base.

>> exactly the bullish argument we needed that to happen to bring inflation down, but the issue again is that you can't have it both ways. you can't keep it strong and have a labor market start cooling and have companies trying to protect margins to protect margins with dropping revenue, they have to cut costs. so that's going to start to hit the labor market either later this year, probably more like early next year and makes consumers nervous and pull back their spending more. it's a feedback loop that has started to happen. it's a matter of can we plug the hole before everything starts rushing out. >> what happens if the fed can cut somewhat around the time that market expects because they can, not because they have to? >> it's a nonzero probability, right, that could pull that off. it's getting less and less possible as time goes on. >> even as inflation continues to come down to the degree it has? i mean, went from 9.1 or 9.2 to

3.2, whatever it was, you get the point. >> it went down. >> we're moving in that direction, right >> yeah. i think then this is a nuanced take on it, but the fact that we have pulled that first cut forward so rapidly, to me, is a signal that market already thinks the fed behind the eight-ball on it i think they're already in this mode, beginning to be in the mode look reactionary rather than proactive and we're choosing to normalize policy it's going to look like we're reacting to data that's getting cooler faster than we thought it would and cut sooner than we thought we would. >> bring in cnbc contributor joe terranova, vertis investment partners others might suggest, you know, joe, they're cutting because they can, and they're cutting because they should, and if the fed is going to cut for whatever reason it's going to cut, that's just a positive and you got to get ahead of that. like when the fed you knew they were going to start tightening

and bad for stocks. >> yeah. well, i think what we've done this week is first of all, we've understood that federal reserve is done. the federal reserve is done. the question about whether or not they're going to cut in 2024, i think it's dependent upon, as liz has said, what the economic data comes in at. listenening to liz and the conversation she's having with you, i mean, it makes me overwhelmingly want to own bonds. bonds are so incredibly attractive right here because you are going to continue to see pressure on yields, continue to see a consumer that weakens. you're going to continue to hear commentary like you did from walmart's ceo doug mcmillon today on the earnings call where he said a deflation period is coming in the next several months so you are talking about how quickly we've gone from thinking about raising rates to cutting rates, how quickly are we talking about inflation and then

pivoting to talking towards deflation? last point is crude oil is clearly messaging something to the market about the global economy weakening. it is not just the domestic economy, scott if you look at oil refinery out of china, you are beginning to see the refinery runs are lower, the global oil demand is weakening, and the reality is, for those like myself that are in the oil trade, you're looking towards the end of the month when opec plus meets and hoping that that meeting can save your position >> so i'm confused by something you said you made what sounds like a hearty case for bonds over stocks, whereas, barclays today says stocks are more appealing than bonds at these levels you have been playing for a pretty good rally between now and the end of the year in stocks what do you make of what barclays says that stocks are more appealing than bonds, the first time maybe you could say that in an awfully long time and

square that with your view that market is going to run what do you mean >> i think over the next 6 to 9 months bonds are more attractive than stocks. stocks are bumping up right now against technical resistance you mentioned the russell 2000 the russell 2000 hit its head on the 200-day moving average and stumbled back to the floor the s&p 500 right now, is in a consolidation range. while it's in that consolidation range, let's remember, we very quickly went from being oversold to now being somewhat over bought the s&p needs to hold 4470 the s&p doesn't hold 4470, you're going to see a pull back to fill the gap at 4420. so fundamentally, what is the catalyst to take the s&p 500 above the highs from the other day, take the russell above the 200-day moving average and to challenge the high for the year

back in july at 4607. >> are you asking what catalyst is >> i know. it's nvidia next tuesday and i don't like that type of binary setup where it comes down to whether or not nvidia is able to carry the market higher i think the market - >> i have another word for you i think is more important than that positioning. what do you think about that >> in positioning? >> positioning in nvidia or the market itself? >> i think we're going to find out a lot of the chase for performance catch-up work has been done this week. i think there's still more to come i don't think there's as much to come -- i think a lot of it has gone on already in the last several weeks. >> bonds, liz, bonds have had a considerable move here because, you know, you said it in terms of where yields have dropped by a large amount in a short period of time, thus price go up,

yields go down bonds have had a pretty good move and i think maybe have surprised a lot of people. do you agree with barclays that stocks are more appealing than bonds? i didn't read their quote from them, we expect the world economy to slow in '24 but in a fairly benign fashion with low peak jobless rates and further declines in the inflation. it's distinctly soft-ish and why stocks are more appealing than bonds now. >> if the call is there is no big recession coming and we're able to stomach higher for longer that would make stocks more attractive over the next 12 months because yields would sort of stabilize at a higher level and stocks can climb if earnings come in the way that they're expected to come in. that's not the opinion that i would have about how i think things are going to play out. >> you think there's a recession coming in. >> i think there's more likely one coming than not, and i do -- whether soft landing or not,

some people's definition of soft landing is a recession i get confused of what we're talking about there. if you look at the data that's going to come in, i think what's happening now, this week was the pivot point, we went from talking about fundamentals of individual stocks to now we're going to continue talking more about macro economic risks waiting for the first cut, with what does contraction look like and consumer doing for holiday spending and oil demand. macro risks where everything becomes more correlated to each other. if that happens, then every time we get a cool macro data print, i think yields are going to come down we'll get -- by the end of the year the cut is priced in for march. i think bonds are more attractive because of that, just because of the effect it's having on yields every time we get confirmation that economy is sdm cooling. >> you said that only works if you think a recession is coming

and no recession environment stocks will outperform bonds over the next 12 months. are you looking for a recession? >> why do we have to have a recession if why can't we have a significant deceleration in the economic trends? that's all we need. >> why do you suggest bonds are better than stocks >> i think given the performance so far that you've had year to date in the equity market, up 17% for the s&p, up 30% for the nasdaq - >> not talking about the next six weeks. the next 12 months. >> i said over the next 6 to 9 months bonds are more attractive than equities. i stand by that statement given the performance you've had in 2023, the word you use is rebalance. you rebalance out of - >> not completely out. >> let me finish my thought. you rebalance out of equities into bonds based on the fact that this year you've seen strong price performance in equities, you had had that in bonds. >> if you have the economic contraction in 2024, bonds --

[ inaudible ]. >> if you bought the index, the s&p 500 is up. >> you know where my point is. >> you have a concentrated performance. >> you're talking as if the, you know, huge gain in the s&p is because, well, the market has done great it really hasn't it hasn't. >> when you're measuring the performance of stocks versus bonds, scott, you look at the s&p relative to the aggregate bond index that's what you look at. i understand what you're saying about the concentrated nature. the requirement in your statement in 2024 means that small caps and cyclical stocks have to come roaring forward and really have a strong price return to beat bonds. >> wouldn't they if it became clear we weren't going to have a recession? do you think they're going to be

depressed forever. >> i don't want to get caught up in are we having a recession or not. i know the trend for the economy is going to decelerate, and i just see it within the market. i hear it on the earnings conference calls the consumer is getting more cost conscious you're beginning to see it in the housing market as well the trend for the economy is going to go lower. if it goes into recession i'm sorry, i'm not smart enough to know that. >> i mean, but i think that is the thesis, right. maybe we need more clarity from barclays i think that is the idea, that average stock comes up to meet the other seven. right. that would drive a resurgence in equity prices and stocks could outperform bonds but to me, the big factor there is that only happens if we confirm that we're not having a recession. so not only do i think it's more likely we have one, but i also think that the question about whether or not we're going to have one, is going to persist for a while. we're not going to have an answer that drives that thesis

for, i think, months yet. >> so for barclays to be right in 2024, i think the correct statement is, small caps will outperform bonds in 2024 i would be remarkably surprised if we're sitting here one year from now and you're saying joe, you said bonds would outperform. look at the market it's the same mega caps that gave you the performance once again. >> it would have to be early cycle market behavior in order for that to come true. >> yeah. jonathan crinski today is talking about being at the -- asking whether we're at the bad news is bad news inflection point? that's kind of what we were talking about earlier. >> not yet, but i think we're getting there. i think this week, again, is the pivot point where if bad news starts to come in, if the next inflation print is below expectations again, yields fall again, yes, i think before the end of the year we're at bad news is bad news because it's like whoa, whoa, whoa, we were okay with everything cooling,

but it's cooling too fast and we're nervous. i think we're teetering on the edge right now we're not there yet. >> we'll leave it there. liz, thank you. >> thank you. >> joe, you're back in the zone, in the m.z. let's get to the question of the day. how much more can the s&p rally before the end of the year less than 5% more than 5% as much as 10% as jeremy siegel suggested? maybe it was in the cards. head to @cnbcclosingbell on x to vote now let's get a check on top stocks to watch as we head into the close. kristina partsinevelos is here with that. >> let's start with u.s. listed shares of alibaba after the company scrapped plans for a spinoff of its cloud business citing u.s. chip restrictions as the main reason for reversing course shares down 10% about 11% year to date. on the chip front, intel shares are actually in the green today after an upgrade from japanese bank mizuho bullish on the

foundry business and says the chipmaker compares fair vorble to nvidia and amd hitting the he highest level at 4310. up next, stocks rallying this week on hopes that cooling inflation keeps the fed on hold for good and our next guest says falling yields can fuel further gains from here. merrill wealth management lindsay hans here to make her case we're live from the new york stock exchange and you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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welcome back stocks lower investors deciding this week's cooler than expected inflation data clears the path for the market joining us is lindsay hans, president and cohead of merrill wealth management a role she assumed this year. welcome to our show. >> thank you, scott. good to beer >> congrats on the role. >> thank you. >> we've had an incredible move in the market and now what >> yeah. so our research team is thinking about a couple things. equity market rally likely to continue as bond yields we think have peaked. >> okay. >> squarely in the soft landing camp and we see an economic slowdown in the back half of next year. and then the fed we're looking closely at spending data and through bank of america we have incredible insights into consumers. we bank 66 million consumers at bank of america so we can look pretty closely at what they're doing and seeing their credit card spending starting to come

down. >> delinquencies tick up a lub. >> a little bit. >> seeing mortgage payments a lot higher average probably 10% up from last year, so that's impacting financial conditions loans are less in demand than they were. all of that puts this as the fed's likely done. maybe one more we're near the end though. >> i don't want to pin you to a calendar date, but when you say that, you know, the equity rally can continue, are we talking about beyond the end of the year if you think we're firmly in the soft landing camp and the fed is likely done and the economy holds in as you say until the end of next year, that runway sounds sort of long? >> we think the economic slowdown starts next summer, so we think equities have more room to run from here. >> when you say -- do you mean that we're going to eventually have a recession because it starts to slow next summer. >> yeah. >> you do? >> yeah, we do. >> we're soft landing for now. >> exactly. >> i got you. >> what about the idea of

competition for equities how do you look at that? because i feel like that debate is now percolating again, where there kind of was no competition for some, now it's bonds versus stocks, maybe stocks are more attractive how do you answer? >> i think we have to think about for us in wealth management specifically, one, during times of volatility, that is when our advisors are most value. clients need our help to help them make sense of that. you know, there's a difference between information that's thrown at them and insight and advis and guidance in our business, eric and i who co-head ml hmerrill lynch, have the talent advisors and what they do best is say listen we're going to work lieu your personal situation, which could be different from mine, look across the table at a suite of options and here's what makes sense for you. it's different in wealth management depending on the client. >> just to play off that a little bit, i mean, i could

feel, you know, a lot of hand holding so to speak over the last 18 months. >> for sure. >> now it feels like it might be turning, the narrative feels like it might be changing. from hand holding to put your feet into the market a little bit more than you might have >> if we look at our client trends in wealth management, first off, our clients' cash, what's sitting in brokerage cash, cds, money market funds, we're at levels three times of what we were before the fed started raising rates. but we've seen that really level off. we have not seen that grow in fact, over the last several months we've seen clients, you know, start to move more into fixed income we look at some of our biggest flows and product off nergs our cio office and architecture platform you see, you know, quite a bit of flows going into our bond ladders managed by our cio office and managed account like fixed income managers that tells us that people are

locking in yields and starting to see money move back into the equities and clients of interest with alternative investments more and more are wanting access to private markets. >> sure. private equity and things like that following that in terms of the makeup of the portfolio in the future is not necessarily going to be 60-40. maybe it's a little bit less here and into alternatives the way that people isn't didn't have knowledge about before. >> the space has innovated our alternatives assets have doubled in the past five years, that's innovation, ever green products available, clients looking for that access that they're getting. we're also seeing clients very interested in tax efficiencies, looking at active ways to tax efficient manage their portfolio and we do that through our cio office part of the wealth management process clients want insight and

guidance but things personalized to them and that's what our advisors do. >> you said something that made me think when you said so you have all this money in money markets, three times as much as you would before the fed was hiking rates, for example, and now you see a pick up in some fixed income it feels like a two-step process. like okay, got to get the cash out of the cash, not into bonds and then go into equities. >> yep. >> what's the moment that that happens? is it -- what is it? >> it's really, you know, it's really different depending on the client clients have different risk tolerances and different goals clients at different stages of their life and wealth. we do not come at clients with one set allocation that's where the adviser needs to be working with the client and two factors at play, what changed in the world, how do you feel about that as a client and how has that changed or not changed your financial plans that we work together on which is not, you

know, a build it and put it away on the shelf it's an ongoing process. >> not a one size fits all thing. >> it just depends on each client and that's again the adviser led approach. >> one of the biggest conversations right now in the market is tech and everything else tech has had this incredible run. everything else really hasn't. how do you view that and where we should be in the new year >> when we look and talk with our folks in research, industry leading research partners, they look at a couple sectors they look at tech specifically the mega cap space, energy in terms of solid free cash flow and industrials, specifically aerospace and defense, so those are some of the sectors they're talking most about right now. >> energy is, obviously, suffering. we were talking about oil below 73, the sector is the worst and a conversation about looking outside of the names and the lights from the mega cap and thinking that if you're right, soft landing, or at least the economy holds in for the better part of 2024, then maybe you

have a pick up in those areas. >> that's right. >> it's good visiting with you thanks for being here. >> thanks for having me. >> our pleasure. lindsay hans straight ahead, tech stocks hitting a record high today. the sector approaching a 50% gain on the year emj's eric jackson will join us, whether tech can lead the market in the next year "closing bell" is right back ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines. ( ♪♪ ) we're still going for that nice catch.

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welcome back the start of a new tech bull market is how my next guest sees the market setup with the tech sector up almost 2% this week. joining me eric jackson, emj capital founder and president. >> good to see you. >> haven't we been in a tech bull market? >> doesn't feel that way if you've been investing in tech -- >> we've been in the wrong ones. >> the seven have been amazing but nontech, 2023 has been, you know, a so-so year after a

disastrous 2022. >> are we talking about like higher growth, higher valuation tech >> no question no question. if you - >> bull market for those stocks? >> for everything across the board. nothing can happen without the russell participating in this. even though russell is not necessarily tech, i don't think anything outside of the mag 7 in tech can work unless the russell works as well and tuesday was a significant day for the russell and finished up almost 6%. >> astonishing. >> a four standard deviation move only one other time in the history of the russell it's had that kind of move. i don't think you can wave your hands and say that's just another day. i think it's page turner and start of a rally for the market. >> aren't we going back to earlier chapters it's down 1.3% today it had that incredible day, but that's it. >> last i checked, last five days, russell is up 5% nasdaq is up 4

you know s&p i think is up 3 for the last five days. ark is up 7.5% in the last five days i think -- >> yields have come down. >> yeah. this is what i'm saying. it's hard sometimes, scott, in the moment to recognize when something, you know, has significantly changed. i think there was a tremor on tuesday, and things have changed. the fed has done a punxsutawney powell, gone back into hibernation for the next year and that's how the market is taking it. yields are day after day on the decline, and it's time to recognize that's going to lead to a brand new chapter in the market. >> yields have peaked? >> yeah. it's a matter of waiting for the cuts to come. >> when do you think those are coming >> whether in march or july, i mean - >> does it matter for -- >> doesn't matter. >> you don't need the fed to cut for your new bull market for those kinds of stocks to work? >> no. because we didn't need the fed to hike for a lot of mid tech

names to go in the tank in february 2021 is when it started. there's something interesting, if you look at a six-year chart of ark the growth tech, and you lay that on top of a six-year chart of nasdaq during the dotcom era, it's kind of eerie the way that they, you know, mirror each other. huge peaks and then huge declines nasdaq declined 77%, ark down at its lowest 80% what's interesting to me, it took two and a half years for nasdaq to fully decline after the dotcom peak. last month we passed the 2 1/2 year anniversary of arc's peak in february of 2021. nvidia, that's your top name >> top large cap name. all eyes will be on next week. >> what do you think happens i mean, i don't know if you heard joe terranova up here suggesting that the, you know, the next move of the market, so

to speak, hangs on nvidia and those earnings next week we've come a long way. there's really no other catalyst the fed speak is whatever. what do you think about that >> i think it's important. it's a gorilla in the mag 7 for sure does it hang on it the market can continue to do well, like we've muddled through the tech earnings so far, just because, you know, one of the names has a disappointing name suddenly it rebounds a few days later. i think nvidia will have a good report i think it's only expensive if you think when they raised, you know, their guidance by $7 billion over consensus like they did in may, if you think that was a one off it's expensive if you think that was a sign of a secular shift and a lot of enterprises are getting into ai and building allocations and models and are going to use hair clips and it's going to continue beyond one quarter, then the stock is cheap it can sfwhooshg what about apple. >> it's been a good comeback pushing 190.

>> when you say, you know, is the market going to tank if nvidia has a bad earnings. apple is a great example everybody thought it was left for dead and it's gone straight up ever since. i think apple is still cheap it's one of the names that i also like in the mag 7 along with meta and tesla, i own all four i think apple can still work it's an iphone story, it's a services story people are still buying this and they will and they'll continue to spend money on the apple platform. >> thank you for being here. up next we track the biggest move near the close. kristina partsinevelos back with that. >> another retailer warning off a hesitant consumer and $200 million share buyback program for sonos.

sonos. we're about 15 away from the "closing bell. back to kristina partsinevelos now with the key stocks to watch. >> shares of sonos are soaring despite the top and bottom line disappointment investors seem to be to focussed on the share buyback comment and patrick spence, a new multibillion dollar category in the second half of fiscal 2024 without revealing that category, but it's largely widely believed to be headphones bloomberg reporting sonos plans

to cut more jobs but no word on the department or numbers. williams-sonoma shares moving higher since august 2022 up over 6% the company reporting a record operating margin signaling a healthy return on sales for the company, even though management did note of, quote,ongoing consumer hesitancy. >> thanks. kristina partsinevelos last chance now to weigh in on our question of the day we asked, how much more can the s&p rally before the end of the year less than 5%, more than 5% or 10%? i'm kind of surprised we have as many votes for as much as 10%. already. we'll give you the results after the break. hi, my name is damion clark. and if you have both medicare and medicaid, i have some really encouraging news that you'll definitely want to hear. depending on the plans available in your area, you may be eligible to get extra benefits with a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. all of these plans include a healthy

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the results of our question of the day, we asked how much more can the s&p 500 rally before the end of the year most of you said less than 5%. a lot of votes on all of those, though thanks for voting. amazon making a big move into the auto space that's sending carvana shares lower. retail week rolls on gap and ross stores reporting u si t te n o.t. when weak yoindehe market zone ♪ explore endless design possibilities. to find your personal style. endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardie™. ♪ my name is josh sanabria and i am the owner at isla veterinary boutique hospital.

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vertis investments joe terranova back with us and phil lebeau on what amazon is pushing into the car space means for those stocks and courtney reagan watching earnings out in o.t. looks like we're going to hold on to 4500 in the s&p, which is a good line to keep an eye on in the days ahead. >> this is known as a bull flag pattern holding 4470, means that you can accelerate higher. i think 7%, that's ha we get for the remainder of the year if i was voting in your poll. >> more than 5%. >> i didn't give 7% as an option, but more than 5%. >> i have to be difficult sometimes. this is a nice bull pattern. i agree with what eric said before, which is that we need the russell to participate we need the russell to participate. a little bit of an uncomfortable pullback right now reverse that quickly. >> he said it was going to and those other stocks like the other tech stocks were going to go on a big run.

>> yeah. >> he said new bull market for those. do you agree with that >> that's more of i think a prove it situation got a nice start today with intel up 6%. >> yeah. how about energy how about energy you have -- you're overweight by a good amount. >> troubled. >> in that space. >> you've said that this is make it or break it for the stocks, right? so far it's break it what revers this >> so the way that i see this sector right now, first of all, let's be clear on something, the spot price of oil is down 10%, energy only 3% that's good. here's the setup and a little bit of the troublesome situation for investors. most speculators are long energy what are they going to do? are they going to bail out now no they will wait for the opec plus meeting at the end of the month, right. so there's a lot of pressure for something to come out of that

opec plus meeting to reverse right now crude oil prices at the lowest level since july. >> take on nvidia because when you look at catalysts that are out there to, you know, either lep confirm the move that we've had or take us to the next level that's the one that you say i think it's on the 21st. >> yes. >> the earnings. >> nvidia is next tuesday afternoon, i believe look, it's trading right up near the 502 all-time high and i think it will go through the all-time high. nvidia has to just come out next week with confidence to let the marketplace know that the revenue growth that they've seen in 2023 can be sustained over the coming four to six quarters. >> any reason to believe that it won't? are you swayed - >> they've delivered so far. >> i know. now you have microsoft, talk about a new chip yesterday they think they're not going have to be as reliant in the big

picture as they would be on companies like nvidia. >> i see all these mega cap giants having a strong year with their stock price, flush with cash, and therefore, spending on generative ai and if they're spending on generative ai nvidia is the winner. >> speaking of mega caps, amazon talking about the car game, phil lebeau, what's at stake here >> quite a bit if amazon and hyundai can show we can make a dent in terms of online auto sales this is a partnership you can see others trying to replicate in the future as well here is the announcement that came out earlier today we talked to jose munoz, ceo of hyundai north america about it customers will be able to order vehicles directly on an amazon website. hyundai through amazon the vehicles will either be delivered to the customers or delivered through local dealerships. can't get rid of the dealer completely but it will streamline the process, at least hyundai believes this is a move

that will pay off. they will start in the first quarter. not expecting big numbers, but as you take a look at shares of hyundai, keep this in mind with tesla, with risk vien and with other awesome, people are more comfortable ordering vehicles online they do it in the used market. you see that already carvana is a good example of that and increasingly i think we're going to see it on the new side of the market as well. >> all right phil, thank you. should let everybody know that the ceo of carvana will be on "overtime" in just a little bit to cover that story and that's, as i said, in the next hour. courtney reagan, big week for retail biggest names reporting. but we have gap and ross to look forward to. >> yeah. gap is a big international apparel retaler. it's the first quarter that gap will report under the new ceo who came from mattel the retailer expected to post a profit of 20% on falling sales comps expected to fall 9%.

profitability has improved thanks to cost cuts. sales are concerning across the brand. last quarter the retailer was most concerned about the pressures felt by the old navy customer investors curious to see if gap sales are more in line with what tj maxx saw which were strong according to the ceo or target's, but not bad as the prior quarter. shares up 33% for gap in the last three month and one of the strongest retail performances in that time frame. of course, coming off kind of a low base there it has sold off precipitously. ross stores reports after the bell and after tjx, investors have higher expectations for ross they put up a strong quarter last time around and sales expected to grow 3% and the off price concept has proven to buck the trends as this treasure hunt still seems to wrestle with shoppers ross shares up 6%. well out performing the xrt but

not nearly the performance scott. >> we'll see you in o.t. courtney reagan. what's your takeaway thus far from consumer, whether it is the target numbers or maybe more interesting the commentary along with walmart talking about what the holidays might bring and then looking ahead to gap, ross, or anything else on your mind. >> there's a strong degree of complexity costco, dollar tree down today off of the walmart numbers ross store is going to have to come in with sales growth at 5%, not 3% they need 5% the expectations are so high if you're going to beat in retail, you're doing it with strong operational management. the consumer is not given the condition it's in right now is going to be cost conscious the consumer will not get you over the goal line. >> you have lulu >> i have lulu, tjx, i have ross store, i have costco. >> you have ross store. >> i have ross.

>> feeling all right >> the expectations are high they need to exceed those expectations or they're going to have a similar response to what tjx had. buy the weakness in tjx and in ross stores. >> what other area are you most interested in right now beyond what everybody else is talking about? what's looking different to you today than looked in weeks >> i'm going to just discuss real quick volatility for one second because i think volatilitysuggesting the bears are not gone yet remember september 15th was the low for the vix at 1295. >> we're still at 14. >> what that means there are puts being bought. that means bears still have concerns. >> i told you one of the interesting dynamics you have the bulls one side, bears on one side i don't care what happens for the foreseeable future no one is getting off the perch for the most part. >> no. make a strong argument in either direction right now, but price is telling you the bulls - >> like a hearty bull or bear, you're keeping your seat appreciate you being here.

all right. we hold on to 4500 in the s&p. we are we have the earnings coming up i'll see you tomorrow. i'll send it in to o.t there's the bell morgan brennan and jon fortt. >> you have your scorecard on wall street, but winners stay late welcome to "overtime" jon fortt back with morgan brennan. >> welcome back. retail in focus as walmart pulls back on earnings and macy's gets a boost. we'll get more reads on the consumer this hour when gap and ross stores report results we will bring you those numbers as soon as they cross. >> carvana shares sinking 5% off the midday lows on news amazon is getting into the auto sales business starting with hyundai carvana's ceo about that news and how it shakes up his