plunging in germany. the company halted a late-stage drug trial and lost a key court case in the u.s. over the round-up wide killer it is monday, november 20th, 2023 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. it is monday you were right, joe. it got here fast u.s. equities are green when it comes to the dow futures and across the board dow futures up 15. nasdaq up close 15 and s&p up 1 point. you are talking about three weeks of gains for all three of

the major averages if you look at the major averages, the dow is up 5.7% the nasdaq is up nearly 10%. all of that happening as treasury yields have come under pressure during that period of time the ten-year note is below 4.5%. the two-year note is 4.9%. the u.s. dollar extending decline amid the speculation that the fed is ending the rate hike cycle down 3% for the month of november in the meantime, bitcoin is above $37,000 and up 8% for the month to date. meantime, becky, let's talk about the breaking news overnight. soap opera that was all weekend for those who were following it. former open a.i. ceo sam altman is now going to be joining microsoft to lead a new advanced a.i. research team according to

the post on x by satya nadella, the ceo of microsoft the chairman of the board greg brockman as we will join on friday afternoon, four open a.i. board members voted to fire altman as ceo. the potential dangers over artificial intelligence and the board did not believe altman was communicating honestly with them altman was notified on friday that he had been fired then greg brockman, the chairman, was stripped of the role and told he would be ceo, but quit in protest. others also resigned this stocked the employees and major investors including microsoft which did not know any

of this. they were told after the fact. they pressured the board members to bring altman back on sunday, altman posted a photo at x wearing a visitor badge saying first and last time i wear one of these. i think with the hope of working there. talks between altman and the board reached an impasse over the makeup of the roll of the board. the microsoft ceo announced that altman would join the new microsoft research team. open a.i. has hired former twitch ceo emmett shear. i'm told when that was told to sam altman, he was in shock. that part came before microsoft hired him. nonetheless, it has been a wild back and forth

a huge weekend for a.i. and technology that folks think is potentially super innovative and amazing, but also a concern. it raises all sorts of questions of governance. this is a unique model of not-for-profit overseeing what was a for-profit piece of it sam altman never had equity in that piece a lot of folks there are concerned and how all this will work in the future with sam and greg at microsoft. what do they know? what can they take from open a.i. and bring it to microsoft there are so many questions this morning. what happens on the other p employees? >> andrew, microsoft invested $13 billion in open a.i. to get a 49% stake. that 49% stake did not get them any say in how the company would

be run now microsoft shares are up 1.5% today. i can't figure it out. they spent $13 billion and they are still saying they are supporting open a.i. now they are hiring all of these people altman and others coming from open a.i what will they use and not use and where is the intellectual property >> this is an effort to protect the investment what they do get is -- look, open a.i. is materially right now so far ahead of everybody else, including google google may be getting closer to catching up. if you buy enough chips and train enough on them, you can get close. was there a step change in the past couple weenks where open a.i. got closer to generative

a.i. microsoft was trying to save what they have more than protecting the investment. the question is how the organizations will continue to work together. interestingly, if you are run by a not-for-profit, it is unclear how much influence a for-profit entity or others could technically have on the company otherwise you lose your not-for-profit status. >> we have been taking some hits on andrew's shot we will make the effort to get him back i don't think i ever used the word effort. andrew, we had hits on your shot if you were ron dewondering, yo what makes the world go around and keeps people honest and watching expenses. it is a for-profit venture >> that's the debate in silicon

valley is it keeping you honest or push too quickly to turn a profit and disregard the security >> it reminds me of bio-tech if you move too quickly, i'm not saying wuhan was doing that. you are playing with fire when you have things that could create something that could be the enemy. i guess in a way it is way down the road it is dangerous in the same way. you won't want people to just all they thought about is profit running bio-tech firm or an a.i. firm you want governorss and s you want governorss as and guardrails and everything. it is hard practice to do it >> by the way, now all of them will be for-profit you think about it google and now microsoft elon musk with x a.i. and i'm sure we'll talk about that in a

minute everybody turns for profit maybe it goes to a free market situation. maybe it is better maybe it is worse. there is an effective altruism to it. >> electronic arts. >> it is probably great for ea >> you caught us off guard i was thinking of a different ea >> what time is it >> ftx if you remember ftx it had ea influencing it a lot of motivations about all financial times piece with linda yaccarino is resisting pressure to step down to save her reputation the ftp says yaccarino refuses

to leave telling sources she believes in x's mission and employees. those calls are obviously after x owner elon musk said he agreed with the social media post accusing jewish communities pushing hate against whites. companies uss suspended adverti on x he turned his attention to the a anti definitiofamation league of anti-white and racism. ceo jonathan greenblatt will join us in the 8:00 hour to discuss elon musk's comments

there is a lot of back and forth we talked about with elon musk and twitter. >> andrew? >> there is an update to that story. you know, elon musk made a couple of comments saying not only that he is not anti-semitic, but he doesn't support all sorts of things. then greenblatt and others came out and thanked him. it is really actually about the story we talked about has shifted so materially from friday and where are we today? i don't know i'm sure we'll talk about it >> that is why i'm glad we have jonathan coming on i don't think elon musk is anti-semitic i don't know we talked about him so much and there has been between

greenblatt and the adl and musk, it is a soap opera >> bill ackman the two stories we talked about this morning have your head spinning and you tried to figure out what either of them meant. >> two other things i was going to mention about that. bill ackman's foundation has a stake in twitter he would like elon musk to be one of his partners in going public i'll put that out there for what it is worth. the other thing which is interesting, elon musk says x a.i. and if you bought it at the high valuation, you will be 25

owners of the new a.i. vehicle will the investors make their money back if you believe in yoartificial intelligence and that could be interesting, that could be a viable way to do that. i thought that was worth noting. >> we have more to talk about with all of these stories and more news. when we come back, several data points on the economic calendar for the holiday short trading week we get you ready for what to expect next. you are looking at green arrows across the board. later this morning, treasury secretary janet yellen will join us to talk china, the u.s. economy and much more. you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird.

visit bairddifference.com. te with velvet smooth crema. now brewing peet's coffee. [ "i'll be seeing you" by the five satins ] ♪ ♪ the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com encore energy, america's clean energy company

poised for production in south texas, energizing america with reliable and affordable nuclear energy fuel with an environmentally friendly extraction process. encore energy. my mom's life is the most important thing to me. hi mom! i called my mom, "i have this gene and i think you need to get tested." she feels like it was truly lifesaving.

you want to be able to provide your child

and i think you need to get tested." with the tools or resources they need. with reliable internet at home, through the internet essentials program, the world opened up. fellas, fellas. that's how my son was able to find the hidden genius project. we wanted to give y'all the necessary skills to compete with the future. kevin's now part of this next generation of young people who feel they can thrive. ♪ ♪ right now is time for the look at the thanksgiving trading week we are facing we get the read jobless claims and durable goods. we get results from retailers like lowe's and nvidia and best buy. joining us is mary ann bartels

the big issue is the run-up in the markets over what the fed has done and maybe the fed is cutting rates next year. do you buy into the rally or if the fed doesn't cut rates, do you think we have gone too far too fast >> great question, becky we have looked for a fall of 10%. we got it. we have called for a year-end rally. we are out with the year ahead and we are calling it the bucking bull for bonds and stocks we think bonds go into the bull market next year the fed doesn't necessarily have to cut rates for bonds to be in the bull market. i think the market itself can allow rates to gradually come down again, if the fed does start cutting rates, that definitely would add to the desire for bonds. as rates come down, equities have been rallying we think you can hit new record all-time highs next year in the

equity market. it is not going to be a smooth, smooth ride the way it has been the last couple weeks. we think as you go into the month of december as markets have had a big move, we can get more volatility. we are still telling clients if you are not in the market to get in the market because we are looking for new highs next year. >> okay. would you be selective over where you are putting that if you look over the last month, thes s nasdaq suppis up 10% moo date you see the mid-cap and small-cap stocks >> you ccan temporarily broaden out that you normally get a seasonal rally in small-caps in the month of january we think you are already in that rally. another pocket of the market that is depressed is the banks

particularly the regionals we think they can bounce we want to rent them, not own them we believe the leadership is in mega cap stocks. you look at the s&p 500 top 50 stocks relative to the s&p 500, we had a multi-year breakout we are getting a breakout with the magnificent seven. we do think the leadership stays with mega cap and technology >> the crazy story we have been talking about this morning, mary ann, and i don't know how closely you follow open a.i. and what this means for other investment for other a.i. companies that are making an effort tonand pushing into it. this is clearly dividing silicon valley and raising questions if you are looking at big tech as a place to go, how does that factor into these stories

especially when sam altman was raising billions to compete with nvidia and the chips this is stuff that roils a lot of investments and big tech companies. >> becky, this is significant. you would not have all of this if there wasn't positioning because of the potential growth that we're expecting from artificial intelligence. really what we think artificial intelligence will bring over time is productivity enhancements i'm not sure we know how to factor that in yet when i began my career in the 1 1980s, computers were just entering the business. just computers added significantly to the productivity model we are looking for artificial intelligence to really be a driving factor for earnings going forward adding to productivity and taking unit labor costs down

having all this happen is another indication of how important this technology will be to our economy and not only our economy, but the world economy. >> how do you play that in the marketplace? i get your point it is a great efficiency boost across the board to lots of companies if you are looking to invest in a.i., would you buy in microsoft or nvidia or look at other companies out there or is it just to pbuy any of these companies and things get more efficient with time? >> you want to have a diversified portfolio. you want to own the leaders of the names you owned. one way is to play this through semiconductor chips. nvidia is part of that to grow your infrastructure and technology, you need a semiconductor chip we are moving through the digital world.

everything has a chip. the car, the fridge, the dishwasher, washer and your dryer. we are staying with the chip theme and with the leaders that have been leading the market we don't see them peaking at this point >> the inflationary reads we got last week were soothing to the equity markets do you think we have seen really great numbers and it is not going to be a concern for the fed coming back in this circles back to what we talked about at the beginning. one big play at the moment, it is to figure out what the soft landing is from the fed perspective. we have seen the dollar come down as this signals the end of rate hikes what next? if additional inflationary numbers come up, mary ann, is

that the fly in the ointment the fed has to stay higher for longer >> i think the fed does want to stay higher for longer they want to ensure that they battled inflation. when we look at the inflation like cpi and ppi, we have been saying they peaked in fact, if you look at headline ppi, that number on the year-to-year basis has already gone negative. we think cpi has come down i would not be surprised if we print a negative number on headline year on year. then the fed, if that does happen, is going to have a harder time staying higher for longer you know, right now it does look like a goldilocks environment with economic growth and slowdown in inflation and have interest rates fall which would lead to a double bull market in both stocks and bonds. >> mary ann, i have been calling

you mary ann bartels for years and years. is it bar-tels >> it is bartels i go to bars and i tell. for you, becky, i'm fine. >> these appearances are important. >> i'm sorry it is bartes and james >> right with bartels, you come on all the time >> i'm sorry >> it's all good it's all good. i'm loving the color combination, becky, between you and joe. it is a great cleaolor for the week. >> i was thinking thanksgiving >> i'm trying to figure which

red tie. some are too wide. >> we are predictpredictable mary ann bartels coming up, famed short seller and you see how hard it is to be a short seller. jim chenos is shutting down his hedge fund details after the break. what's left of them. and later, more reaction to the news over ousted open a.i. ceo sam altman has been hired by microsoft. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist securities experience, expertise, execution.

with cirkul, your water is deliciously flavored at the turn of a dial, with zero sugar and zero calories. and cirkul has over 40 flavors, so your water can be as unique as you are. try cirkul. your water, your way. now with even more flavors. available at walmart or drinkcirkul.com. i was on a work trip when

the pulmonary embolism happened. but because i have 23andme, i was aware of that gene. that saved my life. ♪♪ nothing like a real tree. ♪♪ oh, fudge!!! oh, fudge!!! ♪♪ the holidays are joy, except for all the snow, slush, salt, and pine needle catastrophes... weathertech's cargoliners and floorliners are laser-measured to perfectly protect the front, back, and even up the sides. order the perfect holiday gift today at weathertech.com and don't forget weathertech gift cards.

short seller jim chenos is telling cnbc he is converting his hedge fund to a family office advisory business he says he will return most of the investor money to them chenos is best known for his bet on enron in 2001 and then baldwin which was a cincinnat cincinn cincinnati-based piano company the wall street journal notes assets are hovering below $200 million compared to $6 billion in 2008. in january, he had a short bet

on tesla which has wrisrisen 90 this year. it is not hard to figure out he l lost a lot it is a combination of people exiting and capital losses andrew. in the meantime, in other soap opera drama, kyle vogt, ceo of cruise, has resigned. he announced that last night in the post on x without providing a reason he plans to spend with his family cruise is owned by gm and faced a number of problems with the robo taxis it ususpended operation on all public roads some news just out ron clain will join airbnb as

ceo. when we come back, backlash against elon musk. we will talk about those anti-semitic comments on x and the pressure on linda yaccarino. plus, why shares of bayer are plunging this morning in gean rmy."sawk" returns after this. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business next level moments need the next level network. move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security.

chip? at&t business. [ "i'll be seeing you" by the five satins ] the mercedes-benz holiday love celebration is here. come in now for the exceptional offers you're bound to love, now, through january 2nd. with gold bond... you can age on your own terms. retinol overnight means... the smoothing benefits of retinol. are now for your whole body. plus, fast-working crepe corrector diminishes wrinkled skin in just two days. gold bond. champion your skin. i was on a work trip when the pulmonary embolism happened. but because i have 23andme, i was aware of that gene. that saved my life.

good morning welcome back to "squawk box. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square futures are higher dow futures up 10. nasdaq up 18 we are building on three weeks in a row of gains at this point. in the meantime, shares of bayer hitting the lowest level in a decade after the company halted a late-stage trial for the blood thinner drug for heart disease the experimental drug was inferior to competing drugs from

pfizer and bristol the company was ordered to pay over $1.5 billion in the latest u.s. lawsuit over the weed killer roundup that stock down 20% this morning. elon musk slammed big advertisers and watch dog media matters on friday after companies like ibm and apple and comcast halted spending on x following the data from media matters that showed hate speech alongside ads. joining us is the former chief technology over at the white house. he is currently president of care journey it is a very difficult issue and it is difficult to figure out what exactly companies should be doing, anish because of the nature of social media with spatially you have

something else next to something else then on tv, i saw a college campus with the projection of something that said glorious martyrs of hamas they went right to a commercial featuring a major u.s. company that is different than what we're seeing on twitter since it is permanent and sits there situated right next to it? >> well, if you remember the last time we visited twitter, it actually announced it was adopting an industry standard that would allow for before you buy ads, you could actually hire those ads to be on safe posts i don't know what media matters found. that will be a great part of the debate today did they implement what they ra

announce announced in august or was it not deployed there is room for improvement. during my time in the obama administration, i had seen screen shots where defense department recruiting ads were running alongside pirated online sites. this has been a challenge. we just need to find better ways to tag content on the internet than to give advertisers control over what content they wish to be associated. >> these blue chip companies were hit with the repost by elon musk himself of the anti-semitic post it is a combination, i think, of the media matters story, where you don't want your ads on those posts, but might not want to do business with musk at all or step back before things get cleared up

>> for sure. if elon is watching, he should understand his voice carries a lot of signal and he should be careful. just because he can tweet something doesn't mean he should my hope is that we go back to the basic regulatory principles of section 230 which created the conditions for innovation in the first place by giving the platforms some protection against, you know, content that runs through the networks, but with obligation to do more technically to facilitate the reductions of harm i think it is safe to say, joe, we had a miss allocation here. a lot more proptection of liability than innovation in solving these harms. i was hopeful in august. i continue to be hopeful that x can be a platform of

produ productivity it has potential to bring more protected content or posts on the web. offering some tagged auctioning tool to allow people to constrain the risk these are positive product announcements. it is ironic that the platform leading in the areas has created this amplification problem as you saw with elon's post it is a bit of both cities in the situation. >> it is also be so shocked and flabbergasted by events in the past two months. not only the event on october 7th, but reaction to it is so shocking the whole landscape changed. aneesh, for a while, cancel culture can go too far i think on twitter, it went too far. there were a lot of things that were canceled that i wasn't sure

where i saw wuhan or i don't know take a pick. you can't see it because it was canceled now the people involved in the cancelling are airing things and saying things that are so insanely inappropriate and offensive. they are not getting canceled. really, i'm whip sawed. i want some of this stuff canceled it depends on the eye of the beholder the landscaped changed so much, aneesh. >> we have moral compass and we have deep concern for the hate to try to bring the community that brings about more spirit of love and hope for the world. let me be a practical perspective. the decision to open source the algorithm with its thumb on the

scale to move or amplify content was another product innovation in the past, it was a well, let's see what the black box does it does this and that and we can comment from the outside the position to open source the algorithm opens another transparency if there is something in the algorithm that rewards the amplification of hate and provides a windfall of financial gain is something we don't know. we haven't read that story, joe. i don't know if we have our thumb on the scale of hate with the algorithm. this gives us a chance to understand do we want a digital public square and what is the foundation principle that is in the core set of principles regardless of elon running the platform or his

competitors. >> aneesh, should i be able to read osama bin la laden's lettei i want to see the rationale? look what happened there what is the right approach to that it should not have been amplified? you can't just ban it? you can't make it disappear like it never happened? >> let's walk through the regulatory dynamics of what you asked. somebody on social media platform posts it. now the first question is who gets to see it individuals who follow that poster would be able to see it it might have some audience. not everybody has a big audience it may have gotten somewhere the algorithms have been under

debate, joe, as to this could be something that would go viral. let's start propagating it and amplifying it and running ads against it and monetizing more content on the platform akin to a piece of traditional media that does well for cnbc. that amplification engineering is the concern as to whether the platforms have responsibility for this content in addition, community notes would have weighed in it to say this is what was posted and here is the context and it was written in this form and inspired this horrific act there would be context when you read something, you would have more information about what it is and what it means. joe, it is more nuanced than should it be outright banned that is where you get into debates right now and in local school districts like banning

books for kids i think largely if we have more context, if we had no thumb on the scale that encourages viral hateful and harm thful content more community engagement, a la wikipedia style, over things that are uncomfortable and know and read and create that culture that aspires to the digital public square? >> we had the discussion earlier and not-for-profit versus profit if you did not for profit, you would do it that way, if you were a media company and click and click bait and everything else it is a sad commentary on human nature, aneesh, of what goes viral. we appreciate your time today. something we will discuss and watch it all play out.

>> thank you, joe. >> we haven't resolved it yet. we will continue the conversation. when we come back, we will look at the big winners and losers in the healthcare secr.to later, mohamed el-erian will join us with his look on the week ahead "squawk box" will be right back. from christmas tree mats... to floorliners... cargo liners.... no drill mud flaps... seat protectors... and more... weathertech has the perfect holiday gift. honey, is everything ok? oh yeah. order at weathertech.com and don't forget weathertech gift cards.

welcome back to "squawk box. i'm dominic chu. time for the sectornomics. health care has been an under performer against the s&p 500 which is up 18% due in large part to the mega cap technology trade. health care sector is down 6% right now. that gap is wider throughout the course of the year we are watching health care closely. there is a changing landscape with the pharmaceuticals and the index. these days, with the big drive to weight loss diabetes, eli lilly is world $562 billion. that is the biggest company in the s&p 500 in the healthcare se sector merck is 248 and abbvie is $244

billion. drilling down into the eli lilly trade and what made it the big behemoth today 62% shares higher in the period due in large part of the deep diabetes treatments and mounjaro it was $347 billion at the beginning of the year. keep an eye on that changing landscape with the pharmaceuticals. that is "sectornonics" for t today. keep it here on "squawk box" because we will have more after the break. >> announcer: sectornomics is sponsored by sector spdr etfs.

my mom's life is the most important thing to me. hi mom! i called my mom, "i have this gene and i think you need to get tested." she feels like it was truly lifesaving. why choose a sleep number smart bed? because no two people and i sleep the same.to get tested." only sleep number smart beds let you each choose your individual firmness and comfort. your sleep number settings. it's so smart, it actively cools and warms up to 13 degrees on either side for your ideal sleep temperature,

and effortlessly responds to both of you. for your best sleep, night after night. and now, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed, plus special financing. shop for a limited time and sleep next level. only at sleep number. the first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning, a shake-up at open ai rocking silicon valley this morning. sam altman was removed from his role by the company's board in a controversial decision and early this morning hired by microsoft. joining us now is "axios" business -- a lot of whiplash, i'll start with the biggest question, what does this all mean >> that's a great question you say things keep shifting what it really means that open ai which i think most of us woke up on friday thinking it was the most powerful ai company in the world. right now its entire future is in question. doesn't mean it's disappearing or not going to be important, but legitimately none of us know right now. >> so it now appears to me at

least that microsoft and google, if they weren't the biggest players before, this changes that but how much of the intelligence, the knowledge, the know-how that somebody like sam altman and greg brockman have and that team have, can they bring effectively to a microsoft versus some of the ip and other things that might originally emanate from the open ai piece of this, and how are these two groups going to even work together given that one of them effectively was fired from the other? >> so i think there's a lot there. for starters, if it was just greg and sam, i don't think a huge amount. obviously they know a lot. i think the real question is how many of the team members, you're seeing dozens and dozens of open ai employees this morning in the last hour tweeting out open ai is nothing without its employees. the presumption is that means these are people going to microsoft. that indicludes open ai's ceo

i think this bigger picture question by microsoft is there was an assumption by a lot of people including me that what microsoft was originally doing with open ai was trying to get the big benefit of the ai push and kind of jumping over, if not jumping over safety guard rails moving really fast with having plausible denial blt it's not us who's going super fast, but now they're bringing in sam and greg, who if all the reporting is correct, were kind of pushing commercialization faster and faster. i think microsoft has decided the reward is worth the risk. >> do we have any idea what microsoft had to do to attract sam and greg there as we know, sam, and i don't know about greg, but sam definitely didn't have equity in open ai. he does have these multiple other businesses there was clear reporting he was trying to raise money for other entrepreneurial startups and efforts. will he be able to continue to

pursue those is he now inside some kind of microsoft box? do we know anything about that >> we really don't i would think and leaving all the money aside and the equity aside, i think a big part of this is what microsoft probably said to sam and greg apart we're going to let you do what it is you want to do the thing that clearly open ai or their board doesn't want to let you do, as for some of those other projects, the big one seems to be this chip issue. sam has talked about his concerns about how the entire chip industry or so much of it in terms of manufacturing is in taiwan, obviously from a geopolitical or military perspective is a risk to the entire industry. if, for example, saudi arabia or qatar or someone like that is willing to basically become a major center of chip manufacturing, i think believed was open ai -- >> dan, we're out of time, you're the vc man, josh kushner

thrived. the valuation on the private side has blown up. take us inside if you can in 30 seconds. >> i think the vc's get screwed here absolutely get screwed here. in theory, microsoft might get all the talent thrive and the vc don't have equity in microsoft. if microsoft has decided to write off open ai at least say we're going to still get the benefit of the technology of the people what are the vcs left with here? i don't think a hell of a lot if there is this huge exodus here i think microsoft wins, the vcs lose. >> thank you for joining us this morning. what a story when we come back, mohammed el- el-erian's take on the market. and later janet yellen is going to join us live from washington, "squawk box" returns after this.

good morning, wall street looking to keep the holiday shortened week in the green. we'll talk markets and the fed with janet yellen later this morning. an ai shake-up breaking overnight, ousted open ai ceo sam altman is joining microsoft after the boardroom drama that sent shock waves through silicon

valley we have the details. elon musk threatening to sue a media watchdog and others accusing them of attacking his social media platform. that story and much more as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ >> good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. we've got a very big two hours ahead, the treasury secretary going to be joining us nin the next hour. u.s. equity futures on this monday morning, 13 points, 14 points, now actually lclose to 16, 17 points higher on the dow. nasdaq up about 25 points. the s&p 500 up about 3 points. let's flip the board around, show you where treasuries stand just about now you're looking at the ten-year at 4.4, the two-year at 4.9.

oil when you think about the energy complex wti crude, if you want to buy it by the barrel, that will cost you 77.05, and then crypto, our barometer for risk on, risk off maybe or maybe something else is happening, i don't know, joe. $37,000 basically. >> yeah, it's been very stable, i'll say that just with an upward sort of a drift, andrew our next guest says that the narrative ping-pong about the type of economic landing that market analysts are expecting is far from over. let's bring in mohamed el-erian, chief economic adviser and president of queens college at cambridge university i was wondering whether it was over i read a piece that said you can expect stocks to keep getting a pretty good bid, as people come to the conclusion that the soft

landing dream is actually playing out, and it's always being nothing but a dream in the past i don't know if they've ever really done it people are starting to think that it, in fact, is a reality do you doubt that? >> so certainly that's where the market is going. the market believes that because we're heading for a soft landing we will see not only the end of the heightening cycle, that's done but we're also going to see aggressive cuts next year, and that will be consistent with growth not suffering in any material way so that's where the market is, and i'm saying this not just on what's happened in the treasury complex, but look at corporate spreads. look at other indication that's where they are. i think the market is absolutely correct in pricing in that the fed is done. beyond that, however, there are significant uncertainties, joe, and i think that the -- what's priced if right now for cuts next year is probably too

aggr aggre aggressive >> we may not see another hike >> we should not see another hike i put it stronger, we should not see another hike the fed should at this point wait to see what the effects are of what it's done, and also importantly we need to understand better two things that we don't have a handle on what is the new mutual level of interest rate, and what are the disinflationary dynamics in the service sector there's big uncertainties about both these issues. uncertainties that the market has brushed aside. i think the fed is aware of those uncertainties. >> the interest rate environment and the absolute price levels are still not great for consumers, mohamed how long can we count on -- we may be seeing a little softness but still hanging in there

what about 2024? >> so it depends what you're consuming. the journal has a nice piece today that shows you that the most popular gifts that we tend to give at christmastime that prices are actually lower than they were a year ago so there's a small segment of the good sector that is not -- has not just had disinflation, it has had negative inflation. that's the good news, but the service sector, us traveling for thanksgiving, us doing all the other stuff we like to do, eating out, et cetera, that's the subject to high inflation. it just shows you the dynamics are very different between the good sector and the service sector >> i just -- well, i was going to ask you whether i should still send you a zach wilson jersey i think i can get those fairly cheap, mohamed >> yeah, joe, i don't know what to say i mean, i don't know what to say. he was benched, so that's -- >> he was benched.

>> that should be a message to him. what i worry about most, joe, if you want to go with the jet, our incredible defense is going to stomp really fragile because they can't stay on the field that long. we need our offense -- >> i immediately when they put the -- when they replaced him, he was getting rid of the ball much more quickly. that's zack's problem. i'm telling you, that's his problem. he's like, i don't know -- it's like throw it or do something, right? isn't that it? isn't that the problem it's like he's worried about -- anyway, anyway. >> i don't want to leave people with that impression they will blame the offensive line he has to come off the learning curve of getting a better sense of who's open, who's not open. and there's nothing wrong with throwing it away most of our mistakes come from the fact that he doesn't throw it away. >> i mean, people over in the uk

where -- are going to say why aren't you talking about round ball football. you're probably making people mad, mohamed how about corporate earnings in this weird environment that you describe we're counting on a game in the levels of valuation we see right now imply what type of earnings -- i want to say at least 10, 12% for next year. will we get it >> i don't think we'll get it on average. i think we will get it for a few. in fact, the big theme for next year is going to be a lot more dispersion, even more than what we've seen this year and we're going to be talking about a handful of stocks that are having a big influence on the averages, but it's going to be a handful this is not going to be an environment of lifting all boats. it's only going to lift the boats that have the following characteristics.

they are balance sheet strong because i don't think interest rates are coming down as fast as the markets assume second, they are riding a massive secular wave and third, they have good management, and if you applied those criteria, you really end up with quite a small set of names going forward. >> all right just looking to see, so tonight's game, if you were taylor swift, what would you -- i mean, how does she -- becky and i were talking about this. >> she's got to support the eagles and the brother because that's what a good potential future daughter-in-law would do. >> i disagree. there's no way she -- >> she's from philadelphia. >> what do you think, mohamed. >> i think she's going to be torn the rest of us will have a great game these are the two best teams playing a super bowl early let's enjoy it. >> that is true. >> i think that you're probably right. you know who -- if dallas would -- if the real dallas

would just -- cowboys would just stand up, i might start thinking they're close too. >> how about the 49ers don't vote them out here. >> 49ers okay all right. those four no joe burrow. >> yeah, what happened >> torn fricken, you know, all right. >> i wasn't going to mention it. i wasn't going to mention it. >> devastating all right, thanks, mohamed, see you later. >> thanks, joe. when we come back, opec plus considering deeper supply cuts to shore up prices which have fallen for four straight weeks now. wti at $77 a barrel. we'll talk prices right after this break. and then microsoft's ceo satya nadella said sam altman and greg brockman, the cofounders of chatgpt open ai will be joining microsoft. we've got more on that move and the future of ai that's straight ahead. we'll be right back.

>> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. [ "i'll be seeing you" by the five satins ] ♪ ♪

welcome back oil prices marked a fourth straight week of losses, dropping more than 20% from the december highs our next guest says that right now is the time to go long oil don stroyvan is head of oil

research at goldman sachs, you think price wills rise from here, why? >> so we think that oil prices will stay and rise to the higher end of the 80 to $100 a barrel opec range because of three reasons. demand has been strong this year and will remain solid next year. second, we think opec will be responsive and keep supply lower for longer and third, we think that supply growth outside of opec, which has rised significantly to the upside will slow next year. >> why do you think supply growth elsewhere is going to slow u.s. producers have been able to produce a lot more than had been anticipated. >> if you look at where the supply beats have been coming from, really two groups. production in both the u.s. and brazil because of faster execution, easing in post-pandemic supply constraints, and we think these are mostly one-offs. and then second, we have seen very significant increases in what i would call the vulnerable opec producing countries, places such as iran, nigeria and

venezuela. we think we're getting closer to production capacity. we think most of the gains of this year outside of opec supply were largely one-off. >> it's really weird to be talking about a war in the middle east right now, a second war in ukraine with russia, major oil producing areas, and to see oil at $77 a barrel what happens how do you explain that? >> yes, so, the most important reason back in late september. the market was pricing very large inventory draws in the fall, but it hasn't happened if you look at global industry levels they're flat. >> weakness in china has been the big drawdown >> i think that some renewed concerns about demand have played a role triggered by somewhat softer u.s. macroeconomic data like the jobless claims, some concerns about china. the big picture demand has been strong this year opec has ve revised their

estimates over the last weeks. we're not into thanksgiving weekend and we're at record high for u.s. airport activity level. demand has been stronger than widely perceived the big surprise of 2023. >> russia's not having any problem selling oil, is it in some perverse way, are they getting premium prices for -- even with the sanctions? >> so if you look at russia supply, it has been basically moving sideways over the last six months but i think the goal of the price gap that western policymakers design was twofold. on one hand keeping -- on the market, and that goal has been met, and on the other hand reducing russian revenues from oil, and there, you know, i think that what's happening is that russia has basically set up roughly 70% of russian oil is now being shipped through a

supply chain that is non-western. that costs some money to the russians to set up that supply chain, but the main goal was to keep russian barrels on the market that has happened and has contributed to, you know, the supply upside surprises this year and the selloff. >> price cap didn't work that well china has no problem with russian oil, right >> if you look at the big buyers of russian oil, it's asia, india, number one, china number two, turkey's also buying some barrels. this whole supply chain has been rerouted over the last year and a half >> in terms of upside risks, the reasons that the price would go even higher than you're thinking -- and i think for brent you're calling for $92 a barrel that's what you're expecting >> that's right. so for prices to get pushed even higher it would take, what, a colder winter, other issues, supply maybe supply crunches somewhere? >> yeah, so i think the main upside risk to prices continues to be supply disruptions we already have a fairly constructive demand forecast, so i think upsides to prices more

like rly to come from the supply side i think one of the remarkable features this year is the level of supply disruptions has been rem remark bli low >> i want to thank you for coming in today. >> thanks a lot. coming up on the other side of this, we are going to talk about the saga of sam altman's open ai's head joining microsoft where he's going to be leading the tech giant's ai team we'll discuss what it all means, the implications for ai, technology and more. check out the futures, dow up about 6 points, nasdaq about 20. s&p 500 a little over 2. we're coming back after this

something amazing is happening here. retailers are moving inventory quickly and securely. that's because cdw designed and built a solution with cisco security. end to end protection, defends against attacks and makes better decisions in real time. so warehouse and customer data stay protected every step of the way. make amazing happen. cisco and cdw. why choose a sleep number smart bed? because no two people sleep the same. make amazing happen. only sleep number smart beds let you each choose your individual firmness and comfort. your sleep number settings. it's so smart, it actively cools and warms up to 13 degrees on either side for your ideal sleep temperature, and effortlessly responds to both of you. for your best sleep, night after night. and now, the new queen sleep number c2 smart bed is only $990.

shop for a limited time and sleep next level. only at sleep number.

we got some breaking news overnight, after being fired from open ai on friday, sam altman has a new gig now with microsoft. steve kovach joins us with the latest twists and turns with this ongoing saga. >> ousted open ai ceo sam altman is not going to be returning to the company following that drama-filled weekend that rocked silicon valley and put microsoft's leadership and ai at risk

microsoft's ceo satya nadella announcing this morning altman will join microsoft as the head of a new ai research division along with greg brockman and open ai cofounder and former board member who quit in solidarity with altman on friday on the open ai side, the startup has its third leader since friday emett shear, he's replacing the interim ceo after altman's firing on friday. she's staying at the startup for now, but there's some questions about that how did we get here after that shock firing on friday, blowback coming out from investors including microsoft which owns a big stake it bought in the deal worth $10 billion. those investors pushed for altman's reinstatement with nadella take aging a key role ih negotiations open ai board refused to restructure itself, and instead of losing altman and brockman if they started a new ai startup,

microsoft brought them in house. now, it'sstill unclear what this means for open ai and the relationship with microsoft. microsoft relies on open ai technology for its own ai products, trouble at open ai -- excuse me, trouble at open ai could limit microsoft's ability to push out new features and stay ahead of google and others in this ai race. and it's going to take time for altman to build a team at microsoft focused still on open ai getting its house in order. i will say for now, guys, microsoft is standing with its relationship with open ai saying they support this new interim ceo, but look, it's bringing altman in is keenind of a signa they may be ready to push him aside and say no more drama. it's a wild story. >> how is everyone going to get along? what kind of ip does open ai have that may be in the heads of

or not of sam altman and greg brockman and the rest of that team is that replicatable in your mind and in this sort of race between microsoft and google and inflection and anthropic, how does this change things? >> well, replicatable is a pretty easy answer to go at. look how quickly google and facebook were able to push out similar technologies i'm sure there's some work being done at microsoft to do that as far as like ip and things like that, i'm sure they can work around that without touching it. i'd also point to emmet shear and this new interim ceo to lead the company. they've talked about these doom and gloom sna rcenarios he seems to be less on the commercial side than sam altman was, and so that's going to be an interesting dynamic also going forward with this relationship between microsoft and open ai. >> here's my question on this, steve -- >> go ahead. go ahead, becky. >> really quick, sorry, really

quickly, here's my question on this, did microsoft spend $13 billion to basically get an option to hire half of the company? >> that's what it feels like now, doesn't it? >> it's really weird but then kara swisher is doing some reporting on this and says that, remember, if open ai does not meet the terms of the contract it can walk, which i think she means microsoft can walk did they not actually spend $13 billion? >> they haven't spent all the money. it's not just cash either. it's a deal valued a the that m -- at that much they're doing crowd credits for open ai that might get to that $10 billion valuation. we don't know the details of this there's certain milestones and things like that they have to reach in order to lure more investment from microsoft. so it's very feasible. we don't know for sure, but it's feasible you can imagine a scenario where microsoft says we've gone as far as we can with this relationship, we're moving it all in house. but for now all these products we keep hearing microsoft talk about, they're built on open ai. they rely on open ai, with all

this turmoil you start to question can they move as quickly as maybe they were planning to. does their 2024 product road map look the same as it did four or five days ago, probably not with all this turmoil going on. and how many people are going to leave open ai, join microsoft or start their own thing. these are the most hirable people in technology, in silicon valley right now >> google's got to be -- >> we heard stories over the weekend, everyone's phones ringing off the hook saying come join us, there's a lot more competition right now. i can't stress how important this is, open ai was the leader of this entire ai revolution we've been talking about for the last 365 days and now they're in turmoil. >> here's the other question, should we be worried and when i say should we be worried? clearly there were people at open ai who thought that this was going too fast and sam altman recently said even in the past couple of weeks, that there was a step change in terms of where they were and where they are all of a sudden that i'm not sure the public had even had an

opportunity to see and so i wonder about just, again, this goes to a larger question, elon musk has raised questions about the dangers of ai where you have a group of people who clearly want to move very, very, very fast, microsoft obviously as well, and here we are in this other place. one other piece is in the microsoft contract, they do not have access to what's called agi, artificial general intelligence if, in fact, open ai has got into anything close to agi, potentially it wouldn't go to microsoft anyway >> yeah, and that was always from the beginning there's a lot to unpack here, and the question really comes down to the board. if they did have these concerns, you know, and keep saying, you know, the statements we are getting from the board was and other executives that altman didn't do anything wrong there's no malfeasance he wasn't like stealing from the company or anything like that and instead of, you know, talking to him about it, it

sounds like they just made this idea for a coup, and let's just get rid of him without having a conversation about it. >> it was four of six board members. it's got to scare every founder in silicon valley and beyond at this point what do you do with the board, and the idea of saying, okay, i'm going to be altruistic and not take shares in a company, this has to make you really think that too you probably want not only shares, you want a system setup where you have the votes >> right, altman had no -- it's the complete opposite of what you see at meta and with mark zuckerberg, complete control, this special class of voting shares you see at alphabet with the founders. >> it's worth pointing out, this was a not for profit originally founded by -- >> that's the other part too. >> by more than half a dozen people it's not like this was sam altman's company from the get-go he was never the found zbler that relationship with microsoft for profit companies. >> he was a founder one of many. >> why take all that money from microsoft from the missions aren't aligned, which they

clearly don't think they are that's anotherss here. why even start that relationship with microsoft in the first place. >> the reason why they did the relationship is they needed the money and they needed the access to the servers and the chips, that's what this is all about. they needed to train their stuff. >> now they don't want it. >> great still to come, more companies pausing ads on twitter, on x, after elon musk's endorsement of an anti-semitic post on a platform we're going to talk to former s.e.c. chair jay clayton for the latest next. plus, don't miss our interview with treasury secretary janet yellen coming up in the 8:00 hour stay tuned, u' wchg yoreatin "squawk box" and this is cnbc.

meet gold bond daily healing. a powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals, and smooths dry skin. with 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins. and... new gold bond healing sensitive. clinically shown to heal & moisturize dry, sensitive skin. gold bond.

welcome back to "squawk box. the elon musk fallout continues pause spending on musk's social media platform, x formerly known as twitter jay clanyton, a cnbc contribute tcontribute a lawsuit may get filed as early as today that elon musk has described as going against media matters which put out this

report what's your initial reaction to all of it? >> andrew, my initial reaction is we as a country, we as society are struggling with the marketplace for ideas. the marketplace for ideas is a uniquely american experiment it's one that has worked incredibly well. but right now with technology platforms, and even ai that we've been talking about, it's under stress we see what happens with musk and the pulling of advertising we've seen what's happened on college campuses, and let's not forget, we have a case going through the supreme court this term where administration officials were found to have improperly influenced social media platforms. we are struggling with all this and add to that the question of preferred speech versus speech that's out of bounds. >> so jay, though, this is the part that -- and this is why -- and i raised this issue with you last time we talked and ait's te thing i can't understand the last time we talked on the broadcast, you came on and we

talked about anti-semitism on universities on campus, those talking about hate speech other kinds of speech that i would dare i say unattractive speech and i think that you as your colleague and probably boss market rowen would say, it's very problematic very problematic speech, specifically at a time like now where israel was attacked by hamas. and you spoke out very vehemently, very vehemently against that kind of speech on university campuses. now here we are today, and we're talking about free speech and open speech and what should that look like, and that is -- in a way, the conversation we had and the conversation we're having now is a microcosm of the conundrum or the issues that this country is facing >> yep, yep, andrew, let's look at it like a playing field, okay there is speech that is clearly

out of bounds. you don't go there anti-semitism, hate, the embracing of terrorism we can all agree that that is out of bounds, and we should vehemently say that it is out of bounds because only when that speech that makes people feel unsafe, that makes people feel uncomfortable, only when that speech is out of bounds does the marketplace for ideas on the very wide playing field work like it should, and this is where college campuses and other organizations have fallen down they've muddied the waters between what's clearly out of bounds and what's on the playing field. it is shameful that we talked about this before. it is shameful that people who have a different political view on questions that don't make anybody uncomfortable, societal questions about climate change and the like, it's shameful that they can't appear on college campuses it's also shameful that college campuses would allow people to pursue hate, to support hamas.

that -- i think that the american public to a person would agree that that's the way our first amendment and marketplace for ideas is set up, and we've lost that. our college campuses need to get back to that. >> but it seems to me that one of the things you're saying is that you're criticizing the advertisers, talking about a free market, if you will, you're criticizing the advertisers that are pulling their money from x over some of the content that's on that platform in a way, you could argue on one side you could say that's a free market on the other side, you could say that's cancel culture. you know, you can have elon musk who talks openly about free market and free expression on one end, and yet, he's going to be suing media matters today if, in fact, he goes through with it. >> not at all, andrew. i'm not -- i am not saying they can't pull their advertising dollars. if the speech is truly out of bounds, of course they can even if they don't like the speech it's a free market they can. you can do whatever you want

the media matters thing is actually quite remarkable, this goes to what i was talking about about the chaenging of our marketplace for ideas. here you have a question about whether someone is manipulating what is seen in order to say that someone else is doing something wrong. it's like, you know, in an old school saying putting a briefcase of cash in somebody's car, taking a picture and saying, hey, maybe they're on the take this is pretty -- this is pretty serious if true. >> jay, i've been thinking about this one all weekend obviously we've been reading about this news and there's no question that obviously, you know, they're setting up -- they're curating their time line to have a certain number of or certain types of posts, and they're pressing reload, reload, reload to see what kind of ads come against it so they are hoping they can screen shot against them and say they're up against anti-semitic posts and things it is true that that happened once they pressed reload 13

times or whatever it was, and the question is is that wrong? it may not be realistic for most people given the billions of ads and other posts and content that's served, but if you were trying to find out how -- you know, how these posts were to come up, that may be one way to do it. i don't know >> look, when we ask what's -- when we ask what's right and wrong and what's illegal and legal, one of the things we start with is intent what were they trying to accomplish with all those refresh hits i don't know clearly there are indicia that they were trying to accomplish a very big negative on how twitter operated and its promotion of what we all know is -- and what we all feel is speech that is out of bounds and harmful. >> where do you think -- we talked about the idea of uncomfort, uncomfort's an interesting word because there's safety there's like true demonstrable

physical safety, and i think we could all agree with what that looks like, i think but maybe we can't. then there's this idea of uncomfort. how do you -- where's the line for you on that? >> let's go back to college campuses that's the place where they've really lost their way. college campuses are a place where you are supposed to be comfortable to debate and discuss your views, comfortable and feel safe. what colleges are supposed to do is facilitate that type of environment. so clearly something that is hate speech or makes people feel physically unsafe is out of bounds, but colleges are also supposed to curate environment where is we can have a legitimate debate about taxes, about societal issues, about climate change, about which political party has the better argument that is the kind of environment that colleges are supposed to create what's miraculous is they're allowing an environment where people feel totally unsafe, and in these issues that are what i

would say core to our democracy, people who feel uncomfortable are allowed to push those ideas away that makes no sense. colleges need to get a north star back on this. >> hey, jay, you want to talk a little bit about open ai i mean, this was a private company. the venture capitalists are in a weird position, but i think it raises lots of questions about investors and the potential for what happens with these founders along the way. i know it's not necessarily s.e.c. domain for some of these things, but this is a crazy, crazy story. >> you know what, this is a crisis story, and let's talk about how a board of directors or how a board of trustees at a college campus gets through a crisis you have to -- you never get through it until you have an end point in mind. now, it can't be perfect, but i can't imagine what the people at open ai were tihinking. >> the board, you mean the board created the crisis it

sounds like. >> where were they headed with this what was their end point and not to communicate why everyone's -- we're all asking ourselves. what was -- >> and their main complaint they put out since was that he was not openly communicating with them >> mm-hmm, mm-hmm. there's a little bit of irony here if this were a public company and you were an investor, you would say where are you headed with this. what is your plan for attracting talent, for, you know, the future now that your founder and visionary -- >> it sounds like the company's dissolving basically >> right now it looks like a miraculous mishandling of a crisis. >> jay, here's maybe even a larger fphilosophical question, you have a company in this case or a not for profit that has at its disposal what some people think is one of the most greatest innovations in the world and others think is the most dangerous technology in the world. it's controlled by a very small

board that doesn't appear that they have -- well, we don't know what kind of legal counsel they're getting throughout all of this. we don't know what kind of real governance even exists a t a company like this, should will be different rules for an organization that some people think of as so existential for our world. >> well, two things, andrew, one is governance is always a means to an end. what is the objective for this country? i think we're all struggling as to what their objective is this looked like very much decisions in the moment, not decisions with a long-term strategic plan the second thing is, if this technology is as powerful as we think it is, it should be regulated, and let me make a point here about government. government does a really poor job of regulating something that it doesn't use i would implore our federal government to start yusing ai to start understanding ai.

if you try to regulate something you don't know how to use, you're definitely going to get it wrong we need to pull people from the private sector in who know what they're doing. i doubt there's talent on the shelf from the government. >> there's something i've been struggling with, this is why i don't know how to fix what's happening on college campuses. i used to -- i don't know, i would just look almost cynically at things like safe spaces and micro aggression, and if there was a statue of columbus or a colonialist or something that students need to be protected and colleges took things like that very, very seriously, and yet, look at what happened to jewish students now that are actually threatenied how do they decide suddenly that the safe spaces, it's such a moving target. it's ludicrous to define what woke is, anti-semitism seems to be an

acceptable tenant of wokism because of colonialism that we've -- anti-colonialism that we've instilled into our children they're all -- these -- the academics at these universities are out of their minds >> and this is where you need leadership this is where the boards of -- >> they are leading. they're leading us into the worst cesspool of -- >> they're leading while the people who have the responsibility to lead are standing -- >> think of what would constitute microaggression over macro aggression is being defended on college campuses >> that should not be allowed to stand. you and i know that, everybody who watches this program -- no one calls me and says, oh, no, no, you know what? it's okay to talk about anti-semitism. it's not, okay it's not okay to say that hamas is doing a good job. >> you've seen some of the ludicrous -- >> i have. the lowest common denominator of what is offensive to a student is taken seriously by liberal

campuses, yet this is -- >> because we've lost -- going back to that playing field, there are certain things that are clearly out of bounds, but the fact that university campuses jumped into that playing field and said this is preferred, this is not preferred, in areas where, you know, social discourse goes on all the time, people have legitimate debates all the time to exclude those and then allow things that are clearly way outside the playing field, it's, you know, it's absurd. and they're failing our students >> okay. jay, i want to thank you for coming in this morning appreciate it very, very much. also, a programming note, we're going to continue this conversation because antidefamation league ceo jonath jonathan greenblatt is going to join us in the 8:00 hour, discuss anti-semitism and social media platforms, he's now come out in favor of elon musk,e' wll discuss that switch, "squawk box" returning after this. of investment risk, do you consider climate risk? changing weather patterns are impacting the way we live

and the value of businesses large and small. this can mean disruption to supply chains, changing demand for products and shifting regulation. what does this mean for your business, your clients, and your investments? ice offers data and markets that can provide critical insight. manage your climate risk with ice. (sfx: stone wheel crafting) ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ why choose a sleep number smart bed? because no two people sleep the same. what can you do with spy? only sleep number smart beds let you each choose your individual firmness and comfort. your sleep number settings.

it's so smart, it actively cools and warms up to 13 degrees on either side for your ideal sleep temperature, and effortlessly responds to both of you. for your best sleep, night after night. and now, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed, plus special financing. shop for a limited time i would say that we're only acloserp number. than the average mother daughter. hi mom! if i lost my mom.... i can't think about that for too long. i was like, "whoa, mom, i have this gene!" kenzie's test and me being able to find out that i was brca positive was lifesaving. the holidays wouldn't be worth celebrating without my family.

a new poll from nbc news shows president biden's approval rating at the lowest level of his presidency 40%. 57% of voters say they disapprove of his job performance, the war between israel and hamas appears to be

having a transformative effect on u.s. politics approval of the president's handling of foreign policy just 33% down 8 points from september, and then among voters 18 to 34, 70% disapprove of biden's handling of the war in gaza the president gained one point on his handling of the economy since september, but that's still at just 38% approval new this morning, "the wall street journal" reports that workers at two wells fargo bank branches are planning to launch unionization efforts today the branches are in albuquerque and bethel, alaska, say that they'll notify the nlrb they'll plan to hold election to decide whether to unionize. if they get enough votes they could start the first union at a major bank we've seen in decades. cr the company has a deep commitment to invest in and

support everyone who works at wells fargo. he says the bank has increased compensation and benefits for lower paid employees in recent years. we're also watching shares of uber, the company said it plans to offer $1.2 billion of five-year convertible bonds. uber says it will use part of those proceeds to pay down debt. you can see that stock off by about 2.5% today, 2.4% when we come back, we're going to be talking tech stocks and coming up at the tp oop of hour, treasury secretary janet yellen joins us to talk about u.s./china relations and the economy. "squawk box" will be right back. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip?

at&t business.

big tech obviously a good run in 2023. s&p technology select sector spdr fund up almost 50% this year from the magnificent seven chipmaker nvidia is the last of the mega caps to report. it's out tomorrow after the market close, joining us, a veteran tech investor and professor at the baker school of business at the citadel. you've been at least, i wouldn't say been -- that you haven't been bullish, paul, but certainly been selective and hasn't been across the board you are recommending all of these different stock. where are you right now in terms of looking at the landscape? >> so as far as landscape goes, into next year, i'm a believer

at least increasing believer in the soft landing if that's the case, then i imagine that tech sector will outperform again in calendar '24. incrementing bullish, not necessarily because of more enthusiasm about a.i. or thinking it's fundamental, but it's all about rates with these aggressive growth stocks if we start to cut rates probably not early in '24 but maybe to the middle to the second half of the year that should be a boon for these stocks. >> rates, this has been the year of the rate increases, paul. we just said that that tech fund is up 50%. so why, with rates going up, outperformed everything. why would it out-perform with rates going oun? a double whammy? >> you think about it. had a microcosm this year. right? tech stocks at the beginning of the year ramped up, because,

remember, the consensus back in january last was that we'd have a recession in this country, and the fed would lower rates before december 31. that was the play through the first half of the year tech, aggressive growth skyrocketing then got the feeling in about july time frame that we're going to have the higher for longer, we actually had a significant tech correction, but the last couple of weeks, a little incrementally positive news on inflation. now back in the good graces. we did take quite a pounding for a while when people thought rates would be higher for longer that was just a couple weeks ago, still are waiting or now is the time to buy? what would you buy and what would you avoid in the usual suspectses that we talk about? >> yeah. so i actually, as i said i believe in the soft landing scenario so i would be in tech, and now that we've been through the quarterly conference calls for almost all companies except

nvidia tomorrow night. feeling good about it. i would own tech sounds like a boring thesis, in this sector, doing this a long time, the strong typically get stronger, particularly if a.i. is the driver, they have resources to invest others don't. i continue to be in, interested in, the larger cap, mega cap stocks something like tesla i don't think really belongs in my group yes. i would buy some i think i would probably wait on nvidia until after tomorrow's call, because nvidia will have good numbers and up side what happened is, the last time they reported their results, they up sided and stock still did take a little bit of a fall. so i don't know if we're going have good nvidia or bad nvidia i feel comfortable with the fundamentals just not what the market will expect the next day, because it's not about what they do it's about what they do relative to expectations.

>> okay. all right. end it there, paul thanks >> yes, sir, happy holidays. >> okay. happy holidays to you. when we come back, our interview with treasury secretary janet yellen and as we head to the break now, a quick check on markets dow turned down by about 32 points s&p futures off and nasdaq down by 1.5 "squawk box" will be right back. your sleep number settings. it's so smart, it actively cools and warms up to 13 degrees on either side for your ideal sleep temperature, and effortlessly responds to both of you. for your best sleep, night after night. and now, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed, plus special financing. shop for a limited time and sleep next level. only at sleep number. ( ♪♪ ) we're still going for that nice catch. we're still going for that sweet shot.

and with higher stroke risk from afib not caused by a heart valve problem, we're going for a better treatment than warfarin. eliquis. eliquis reduces stroke risk. and has less major bleeding. over 97% of eliquis patients did not experience a stroke. don't stop taking eliquis without talking to your doctor as this may increase your risk of stroke. eliquis can cause serious and in rare cases fatal bleeding. don't take eliquis if you have an artificial heart valve or abnormal bleeding. while taking, you may bruise more easily or take longer for bleeding to stop. get help right away for unexpected bleeding, or unusual bruising. it may increase your bleeding risk if you take certain medicines. tell your doctor about all planned medical or dental procedures. the number one cardiologist-prescribed blood thinner. we're going for it. ask your doctor about eliquis. my family is sacred to me. it truly is all that matters. i was on a work trip when

the pulmonary embolism happened. but because i had the factor 5, which showed i had the genetic mutation, because i was aware of that gene, that saved my life. i would not have been able to meet my new granddaughter. i truly believe i'm here because of 23andme.

good morning u.s.-china economics relationship in focus this morning. treasury secretary janet yellen joins us this hour for a wide-ranging interview upon last week's apec summit. and upheaval in the a.i. world. openai sam altman out of the company he co-founded. not working for microsoft. elon musk on again off again relationship with defamatory speech anti-defamation league joins us on the latest black eye for x and musk he take as different position. we discuss at final hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin equity futures turned in negative this morning, you see after, what was a pretty solid beginning to the month already the 20th, though up about 6% or so i think on the dow. treasuries, settled in below on the ten year below 4.5% see 4.476% this morning. let's get joe straight our big interview of the hour. she joins us to talk about economic takeaways from last week's meeting between president biden and china's prep xi jinping. we welcome treasury secretary janet yellen also at san francisco's apec summit last

week madam secretary, appreciating joining us i want to start with the meeting. your impressions going into it and really coming out of it as well >> well, clearly this was an opportunity for president biden and president xi to deepen their communication to try to make some concrete progress on things we can work on together, coming out of the bilat, there was an important agreement concerning working on fentanyl, which is killing 100,000 americans a year, and importantly, military-to-military, direct communication, which had lapsed, and is extremely important president biden expressed the importance of avoiding conflict,

that we want healthy competition but avoid conflict, and president xi certainly agreed with that approach both presidents expressed concerns over some economic policies and actions of the other, but importantly, there was a recognition that we have an opportunity to work together on things of mutual concern, and concern to the globe things like climate change and debt and constructive collaboration, i believe, will be coming going forward. >> do you feel anymore confident coming out of this around the future of taiwan and taiwan's independence i ask this question, from the readout that came out from that meeting there was a suggestion that president xi still does have any ambition to, one way or

the other, take over that country, but at the same time, that he doesn't necessarily want to do that militarily, he said publicly with some of the ceos he does not want to have the a military confrontation, but how do you square those two ideas and how do you think western and u.s. businesses are supposed to think about that >> well, president biden made clear that our china policy, our taiwan policy, has not changed at all, and that we want to see a peaceful relations continue, and certainly to avoid military action this is clearly a very important issue from china's point of view, and president xi did express the view that it's important for taiwan and mainland china to unify. he certainly expressed the desire to have that occur by

peaceful means, but president biden said our policy remains unchanged from what it's always been with respect to taiwan. >> was there any conversation about companies like tiktok? i know bytedance owns tiktok, questions about the national security concerns it may represent and some of the things pouring through social media as americans over the last month as relates to the attack in israel and the like, and i'm just curious. what kind of conversation, if there was, might have related to that >> this wasn't an explicit matter of discussion between presidents biden and xi. i met with my own chinese counterpart, vice premier, for two days preceding the biden-xi meeting, and we did discuss

issues concerning china's investments in the united states, and the sithious process when we review investments, but there's a legal action that is currently pending in regard to tiktok, and we're not really able to pursue further sithious actions while that legal issues are pending. >> i want to turn to the u.s. economy domestically in a moment, but one related follow-up on tiktok. there's a number of u.s. wall street banks that are thinking about whether they should be trying to underwrite a bytedance ipo if in fact it goes public. should they? what are the issues doing something like that given concerns you and others around washington have expressed around that company >> well, look. we do have concerns around the

potential issues with privacy and social media, but i'm really not at liberty to discuss the tiktok case in detail. i want to the avoid giving advice to investors. this is a matter that has not yet been resolved. >> turn to the domestic economy. thanksgiving is coming up, and some good news at least that we're hearing in terms of inflation and the price of turkey and what it's going to cost people at home to buy it. to get through thanksgiving has come down, but it is still more expensive than where we were in 2021 how do you think about where we are in this inflation battle >> so i think we're making considerable progress in bringing inflation down, and we saw this clearly in last week's

news, 12-month headline inflation is down to 3.2%. that's down almost 6 percentage points from its high but although prices in general are rising much less quickly, americans still see increases in some important prices, including food, from where we were prior to the pandemic, and this remains notable to people who go to the store and shop or although they're rising less quickly are higher than they were before the pandemic so i do think we're making considerable progress in bringing inflation down, but americans do notice higher prices from what they used to be accustomed to. and importantly, you know, we're making this inflation progress

while maintaining a strong economy and a strong labor market so that's good news for americans. >> madam secretary, it may be good news for americans but doesn't seem to show up in the polls for president biden, and i also want to read you something. a recent poll by "new york times" and cnn college finding 59% of voters under 30 rate the economy as poor. so, you know, philosophically and sort of intellectually you can look at these numbers say, a great economy in so many ways on a relative basis in history and the like same time you have poll numbers and others saying they don't feel it. >> yet i'm aware of that, and i think it's our job to explain to americans what president biden has done to improve the economy.

i think as inflation comes down, prices stop rising, and the labor market remains strong, americans will begin top see that we have made meaningful progress, and importantly, the administration is making investments in america that will show up and improve conditions, and more availability of good jobs in many parts of the country that have not seen a lot of progress. we've had good economic results on the coasts. many parts of the country over the last several decades that have a been left behind and now as a result of the trieffective legislation that's been passed, the infrastructure bill, the chips in science act, inflation reduction act, we've had over $500 billion in manufacturing

investments that have been announced. we're beginning to see some of those come to fruition a new battery built in the middle, in the middle of america, in places that really need good jobs, and i think this is really improving america's prospects over the medium term and over time americans will see that and feel more hopeful about our prospects. >> madam secretary, also turn attention to geopolitical issues we are all facing. uk ukraine-israel, a package on the take by president biden. what's the chance it's passed before end of the year >> well, it's a critical priority for the president, and critical to the national security of our country. i can't prognosticate about the

timetable on this. i'm pleased that congress has passed legislation to keep the government open and running, but it really is essential that this aid be provided both to israel and to ukraine we can't allow ukraine to lose a battle on the homefront, because it lacks enough money to keep schoolteachers in the classroom and first responders on the job when it's fighting valiantly on the battlefield. so ukraine is utterly dependent on this aid. we need to join others, our european friends are providing, have provided 50 billion euro o aid to ukraine over the next four years imf has provided over 15

billion. they need us to do our part for this to hold together as a package, and, of course, israel urgently needs aid as well, and this aid is critical to the national security of america we -- if putin were to win this brutal war in ukraine, next we might see him attacking a nato ally of ours we need to stop this. >> let me ask you this, though the other piece of this on the other side is that we are having our debt and deficit go up and up and up and up and up and had stan druckenmiller saying we are spending like drunken sailors. pre-covid 20% of gdp now 25% of gdp. my father said in a hole, stop digging, stan. the question, if we're going to be spending this money, are there offsets?

think about offsets? the wrong way to think about it in the context of war and national security? >> well, i don't think we need to have offsets for what is an emergency of national security, but we certainly do need a fiscally responsible and sustainable path for spending and taxation and our economy president biden has signed bills that result in $1 trillion of deficit reduction over the next ten years. we've had responsible investments in the u.s. economy that will have a payoff, and we've provided additional money to the internal revenue service, which will have an enormous payoff in closing the secretary

trillion dollar tax gap that we have in the united states. we're simply not collecting the taxes that people owe, and this will have a huge payoff as well. and president biden's last budget proposed an additional $2.5 trillion of deficit reduction while continuing to invest in the economy. so we need to work with congress to put some of this into effect, and, of course, the higher interest rate environment does pose additional challenges that we need to address. >> madam secretary, finally, i want your thoughts what we've all been watching over the weekend. the moves around openai, sam altman, move to microsoft. curious how you think about that, governance of it and it's importance to the united states. owe a.i. probably considered one of the most important companies or organizations in the world right now giving its lead in

artificial intelligence future of it innovation of it and also dangers of it? >> well, as you know, president biden issued an executive order on a.i we, the administration, obviously sees enormous potential benefits from a.i., but dangers as well that clearly need to be addressed in fact, this was one of the topics that president biden and president xi discussed, the importance of responsibly using a.i. and formed a work group to further consider what policies should be in place to accomplish that, but i really don't have a comment for you on what is essentially a personnel issue with openai. so i don't have a comment on what's happened over the

weekend, although clearly we have taken note of it. >> madam secretary, appreciate your time this morning perspective, and look forward to talking to you again very, very soon thank you. >> thanks. when we come back, we've got much more that we're going to talk about indignation towards elon musk last month following a conspiracy new developments in this story you'll want to hear this in a few minutes speak with anti-deaf mission league ceo jonathan greenblatt. stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back.

ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly.

news just out this morning bullish a company run by former nyse president tom farley acquired crypto focus media company coindesk in an all-cash deal financial terms not disclosed. the current management team will stay in place operates as an

independent sub sizzary. matt murray serving chair of the new editorial committee ensuring journalist independence. last week the "wall street journal report"ed bullish was in talks to reboot collapsed krito firm ftx. >> hmm coming up, the youster of salt altman from owepenai. up next, jonathan greenblatt, new claims amid new claims of anti-semitism of elon musk "squawk box" will be right back. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip?

at&t business. only sleep number smart beds let you each choose your individual firmness and comfort. your sleep number setting. and actively cools and warms up to 13 degrees on either side. and now, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed, plus special financing. i would say that we're . only acloserp number. than the average mother daughter. hi mom! if i lost my mom.... i can't think about that for too long. i was like, "whoa, mom, i have this gene!" kenzie's test and me being able to find out that i was brca positive was lifesaving. the holidays wouldn't be worth celebrating without my family.

elon musk tweet on x en endorsen an anti-semitic conspiracy sending advertisers running from the flat perform. julia boorstin has the fallout. >> apple spends tense of millions of dollars on x along with ibm, disney, paramount global lionsgate and comcast, nbc's parent company, paused spending on x. in addition to musk's anti-semitic conspiracy tweet thursday, media matters published a report showing x placed ads from major brands including those that pause spending next to content that touts adolf hit lir and his nazi party. musk responding to media matters on x late friday night saying

"the split second court opens monday x corp. will file a thermonuclear lawsuit against media matters and all those who colluded in this fraudulent attack on our company. media matters company responding, admitted the ads at issue ran alongside the pro-nazi content identified if he does sue us we will win. and a blog, created and alternate x account deliberately followed sensitive accounts to curate posts and get advertising to appear on the account's timeline to then misinform advertisers about placement of their posts. x suffering from advertiser concern about brand safety since musk took over the couple just over a year ago. insider intelligence estimated in october, before all this, that x's worldwide ad revenue this year will drop by nearly 55%.

joe? >> all right yeah that's -- i don't know how to figure it out. there's a couple issues, julie that is trying to get a way to not have your advertising next to, or anywhere near offensive content and then the issue of elon musk himself. i think that we're going to talk about it actually more right now, julia with someone who -- has had quite a -- quite a saga with elon musk himself. >> yeah. actually, something we've talked about a while. jonathan greenblatt here ceo and director of 9 anti-defamation league and jonathan you've had back and forths with elon musk. >> yes. >> at this point in favor of some move. it's go back to last week, what you saw, what you thought about it >> well, look, becky even we step back a little acknowledge, this has been an incredibly fraught time for the jewish community in the united

states and really around the world. we've seen this tsunami of anti-semitism. we tracked 1,000 incidents verified acts of hate in the 40 days after the massacre in israel all right? a third of everything we saw last year and last year it was previously the record high >> when you say "acts of hate" define that? >> acts of vandalism, harassment, violence drebtsed at jewish people and the jewish institution. >> not just posts on twitter >> no way. things in the real world like killing of a man in los angeles a few weeks ago. like assaults in new york and across the country like the threats and harassment against college students on campuses across america. seeing all that this weekend some of this is being committed by hardened anti-zionists. pro-hamas zealots. we see them tearing down american flags, right here at grand central station. we see them writhing in front of the national democratic

committee last week in washington, rioting. this weekend in madison in front of the capitol a group of right-win extremists parading with swastikas marched assembled around the synagogue chanting "there will be blood." >> so elon musk's retweet of something, reposting something that plays into anti-smet ic tropes a huge way saying jewish people are against white people going through these things gets into a big debate you go to him. a lot of other people go to him. his response has been what >> again, walk through that timeline wednesday he retweeted this crazy post that accused jews being against the west and all jews hoarding against america. the exact truth.

then went after adl. we called him out. anti-semitic that led to charlottesville, pittsburgh, et cetera dangerous tweeting to 160 million followers this is the exact truth. >> does he not realize the power he has seems like -- >> i don't think it's for me to say what's in his head a set of political beliefs and ideas. these things can be dangerous. at the same time, two days later, did something incredibly promising saying twitter will start suspending users who tweet anigh lagsist anti-semitic language from the river to the sea, anti-colonation, calling for irratification of the jr. wsh state right noi literally in a war for its life so if he does that, it is a kind of leadership, because no other social media company --

>> a much further step. >> much further step and i hope the others will follow one doesn't negate the other one problematic, one helpful we called him out. i don't believe in cancel culture. i believe in counsel culture get it wrong say something. then call you in and try to help you get it right i think that's what happened here. >> have you spoken with him or any represents >> spoke with elon as length friday. >> what was his general take what do you think happens? the moves he made, steps he took, was because of, what he really heard and understands what these -- >> i think realizes -- >> threats of genocide are >> not even veiled calls to genocide. calls to genocide are not just viletive in the terms of service of x, they are, completely out of step with reality and wrong and dangerous for jewish people. whether coming from elon or

coming from other parties, we're going to praise the people who get it right but when they get it wrong, call that out too i think in speaking to elon, look i don't know what's in his head or heart. but he's got many jewish friends. surrounded by jewish people. i've heard where he's coming from and don't think he's an anti- anti-semite but this is still dangerous. >> did he say that post from last week was wrong? >> i won't get into specifics of our private conversation again, remember, on this show talked about this before how you can say things that are critical of israel than yet not be anti-semitic. i think he has strong political views and sometimes repeats text, tweets, sorry, totally offensive. if not else, elon is very

imprimprus iimprus -- impulsive but hat to understand when you're popular on the planet, you have to be careful. >> a subject we've talked about a lot and there's times i just don't -- you know, it's so sensitive that -- i am struck that -- see, whenever you say something like "past actions are coming home to roost." >> right. >> somehow say, what do you expect right there, elon should ask never said, yeah what do you expect when you've done this to somehow say that you've brought this on, on yourself but i thaw president obama said something similar with a ridiculous complicit speech he gave. >> media not great. >> but on college campuses, i mean, colonialism, when you're talking about it nonstop and you need safe spaces without

christopher columbus and have to get rid of all the statues and you've got halloween, someone is culturally taking someone else's -- when you get to that point, but suddenly saying, genocide of the jews is okay with these same people i don't understand how we got here. >> look, the situation -- >> how did it become part of woke, part of wokeness the most obvious offensive disgusting bigoted hateful language is being perpetrated by the same people that had microaggression and safe spaces? >> be clear. anti-semitism can come from all sides. what we see on klemp campuses is really, really ugly and a kind of oppressive olympics for whatever reason in this kind of bizzarro upside-down world, despite the jews are the minority in america, the jewish people subjected to -- >> what did you make of it when

they asked the press secretary about, people, jewish kids on college campuses are worried about their safety come back with, anti- -- woke um extremism -- when they answer it that way what is the add min -- where did that come from >> i can't speak for the secretary. >> muslim population in a swing state? what it comes to i don't know i do know you're right what you said jewish college students right now are terrified. see what happens university of michigan friday? anti-israel students stormed the building these calls at tuft it's university, my alma mater occupying student center saying intefadeh is the only solution the intefadeh was a violent set of terror attacks that killed over 1,100 people. suicide bombings shootings stabbings. who thinks this is normal? look, we need our college presidents to say you can have

strong opinions but inciting violence against peers is beyond the -- >> jonathan, return to the x conversation i don't any you touched on it just yet do you have a divinity view about what advertisers that left x in the last several days as a function of media matters report and potentially elon musk's own commentary, should return to the platform given your comments over the weekend? >> i think advertisers need to make their own decisions about brand safety i've seen what disney and apple, i've seen what all of these other brands are doing stepping back i understand their concerns. i watched your segment with jay in the previous hour i don't know how media matters did the analysis but we've certainly seen hateful ugly content up on x and by the way,

up on other social media platforms too. keep in mind, big problems at meta, big issues on tiktok this isn't confined to x that said, i get why brands are alarmed when the site, you know, swings back and forth. i get why they're concerned when there still is a proliferation of anti-semitic poison i appreciate it. >> what would you tell companies that pulled content on elon musk, and the moves he's making, would you suggest they go back and with advertising >> watch how policies are enforced follows through on things he says he'll do and as the site cleans up that might give them the confidence to bring their brands back to the platform. >> not yet >> again, i'm not telling these businesses how to run their shops but i do understand the concern. i mean, look, at a jewish person with kids in college i'm alarmed as well. i don't want them to be exposed to this.

i want anti-semitism removed brands have to do what they have to do this is such an important question because you call and boy costing and protesting different media platforms over the years have talked to advertisers telling them not to do this. >> i have. >> elon musk accused you of doing this. >> right. >> this is an important and specific kwepquestion that almot deserve as specific answer is that. >> look, i mean, remember, i remember being on the show a few years ago, ran the stop hate for profit campaign against facebook they were allows white supremacists to use groups to organize and promote their poison we've stemmepped up, spoken outn similar ways as well in this case you know a lot of advertisers are deeply concerned what's happening the concern is valid but ultimate up to them to make their own decisions. i understand selling the new iphone, promoting a new disney

movie you don't want content to be slated against some neo-nazi material i totally appreciate that. i wouldn't want my stuff up there either if in the same position >> jonathan, thank you for coming in today. >> thank you. >> jonathan greenblatt. when we come back, much more on the markets on this monday morning. wharton's school professor jeremy siegel joins us and what's happening in openai a tweet coming from the chief scientist there. talk about that, too stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. only sleep number smart beds let you each choose your individual firmness and comfort. your sleep number setting. and actively cools and warms up to 13 degrees on either side. and now, the new queen sleep number c2 smart bed is only $990. shop for a limited time. only at sleep number.

why choose a sleep number smart bed? because no two people sleep the same. only sleep number smart beds let you each choose your individual firmness and comfort. your sleep number settings. it's so smart, it actively cools and warms up to 13 degrees on either side for your ideal sleep temperature, and effortlessly responds to both of you. for your best sleep, night after night. and now, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed, plus special financing. shop for a limited time and sleep next level. only at sleep number.

over to mike santoli who joins us with a look at markets ahead of the morning's open. shortened week doesn't mean not a lot of heavy lifting to do? >> plenty news to work with especially tech side of things usually a positive bias in the stock market to thanksgiving week although not so pronounced. two-thirds of all thanksgiving weeks you have positive s&p returns. interesting spot around 4,500 mark for s&p 500 spent very little time above the level. all back in the summer trying to kind of break out above what we got to around september 1st after that late august recovery rally. seems pullbacks towards 4,400

people are saying perfectly routine from here. you have seen bullishness and more aggressive positioning show up in the last couple weeks as people try to chase or catch a fourth quarter rally pointing out over the weekend how yesterday was a two-year anniversary of all-time peak in the nasdaq, composite and nasdaq 100 on closing basis look at the two-year since then of the nasdaq 100. against the equal weighted s&p one of my favorites charts big nasdaq charts, top seven over six stocks accounted for so much of the gains this year. true most a comeback from last year out performance over a two-year basis but not that pronounced and rare historically have a negative two-year return for nasdaq 100 happened only 3:00 three times over 30 years at this point. one thing we disproved big nasdaq stocks somehow unique ly septable to rising rates

last year tracked long term treasury prices at tlt perfectly, and diverged, clearly good balance sheets better earnings rates a.i. story working to positive stocks and not swing along with every rise in yields joe? >> all right thanks, mike. for more on the markets bring in jeremy siegel, professor emeritus of finance at university of pennsylvania's wharton school of business would you, not rorshach, but say everything saying last six months kind of seeing a lot of it either it be exactly true or at least partially true >> well, i remember on january 1st i said have a 10% to 15% gain slightly above that on s&p of course, magnificent seven a big contribution to that. but, joe, i mean, i only have

one worry for next year. otherwise, i think could be an absolutely great year. that is that the fed will be as stubborn in lowering rates if they have to, as they were in raising rates, being so very late to the game, and causing inflation. i mean, let's face it. last week's data was weak. i mean, we're talking -- people talk about coming in for a soft landing. we're coming in for a landing. it's not guaranteed to be soft not yet. i'm not calling for recession. i just want the fed to be flexible i was a little disturbed when jay powell said at the last conference, oh, not even talking about lowering rates i think they should be talking about it. not necessarily doing it right away, but, you know, data is looking very different than it just did three, four weeks ago lower inflation, but also a

lower level of economic activity that is trending downward. >> you have been talking all along, since january, as you said, about, that the money supply was actually contracting more quickly thoughts were tighter than they looked that inflation is being overstated by certain components and it was actually lower than it appeared. so all of those things seemed to have been borne out as more data came out >> yeah. and, really, you know, we've had no growth in money supply over two years. you need about a 5% growth in that, important liquidity measure to get a growing economy with 2% inflation. and i'm a little worried better not go back to the narrative of the '70s. stop and go. absolutely kill inflation. it's very, very different. in the 1970s, burns trumped

money 10% per year without fail. here powell stopped it going down and i became alarmed. eased up, began to rise, last two months declining again, and now i look at that real economic data said, got to be thinking, lower rates, get that credit going up again could have a real great year for 2024. >> would there be any reason to start cutting rates if we have a soft landing, jeremy why not just -- seems like -- >> no. >> normalize where rates used to be prior to the financial crisis. you think we should stay here or too tight right now? >> well, i think -- listen, i think we should uninvert the yield curve. and basically, you know, let's, looks to me that we peaked 5% on long end now 4.5% that means that we have to start moving down on fed funds i mean, it's not going to

uninvert by the long bond going up to 5.5, 6%, some talked about that a while ago no if we uninvert it have to start bringing it down just if we have very little inflation, you know, 5.5% fed funds is a very punishing real rate even with the promise of a.i. and everything else. it will be hard to overcome. look what's happened in the home building we got good housing starts, but home building sentiment collapsed over the last four months, and that is another area of softness we have to consider going forward. so given inflation is licked in my opinion said that a long time, as you said. real rates are extremely high with the jobless claims going up by the way, a two-year high and with continuing claims i think it's time to uninvert that curve, which does mean start

talking about lowering rates. >> great professor siegel, appreciate it. thank you. we don't see ya, thanksgiving this week? >> have a wonderful thanksgiving, joe. >> you, too. okay when we come back, joe, the very latest on sam altman and his next chapter at microsoft. news literally breaking in the past couple minutes. bring it to yoriu ght after this you don't want to miss it.

my mom's life is the most important thing to me. hi mom! i called my mom, "i have this gene and i think you need to get tested." she feels like it was truly lifesaving. ♪♪ we're not writers, but we help you shape your financial story. ♪♪ we're not an airline, but our network connects global businesses across nearly 160 markets. ♪♪ we're not a startup, but our innovation labs use new technologies to help keep your information secure. ♪♪ we're not architects, but we help build stronger communities. ♪♪ we're not just any bank. we are citi. ♪♪ trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, unlocking the power of thinkorswim, the award-winning trading platforms.

bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical studies. tailor the platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customization. and track market trends with up-to-the-minute news and insights. trade brilliantly with schwab.

welcome back to "squawk box. more breaking news. p"squawk box. open ai co-founder sam all theman and greg brockman set to join the tech giant to lead a new advanced ai research team. this follows what was a whirlwind the few days that saw altman replaced at ai, and here's where it gets even more interesting, folks just in the last few minutes, il illya, one of the board members who voted to oust altman posted an apology on x saying, i deeply regret my participation in the board's actions. nifr intended to harm open ai. i love everything we built together and i will do everything i can to reunite the

company. to make it more complicated, he has joined nearly 500 open ai employees in signing a separate letter threatening to leave unless the board which he's on resigns and reinstates altman. that's a story that's just come out from "wired" literally moments ago. so very hard to understand where this all goes given that microsoft has a deal now with sam altman and greg brockman it's possible i imagine he could come back to open ai maybe that's the best outcome for all. we will see, but i want to bring in kate clark, deputy bureau chief responsible for capital coverage what do you make of this, and where does it go >> this has been an absolutely insane weekend at every news event we have been at, we did not expect this we expect a return of altman as ceo at open ai you have twitch co-founder

em emmitt shear like you said, it's possible that they work out another deal and they return to open ai we just -- at this point we have no idea, but the latest is that they will start a brand-new effort and a lot of open ai employees are expected to join that effort. >> well, but here's the thing. if 500 employees at open ai are saying they're going to leave, i imagine they're leaving to go to microsoft. is that a good outcome for microsoft? is that a good outcome for sam altman and greg brockman that's the piece that's sort of hard to understand you still want open ai to be working to some degree, no >> yeah. you absolutely do, and as we saw in that tweet, he wants to make it clear that he is still supporting open ai, but at this point the best case scenario is also keeping altman and brockman who are extremely important to the operation in microsoft's corner so i think, is this a win for microsoft overall?

no it caps off what has otherwise been an amazing year for the company, but i think it has to do what it can in an incredibly tumultuous situation and keep those two in his corner. >> do you have any sense of what microsoft may have offered altman and greg brockman to come over you know, there was also reports that altman was looking at starting other businesses. he's an entrepreneur who has investments in other things in lots of different places he was thinking about doing hardware he was thinking about chips and the like can he still experiment and do these other projects >> i suspect altman will be given the independence necessary, but microsoft has the resources which is the computing power you need to build these generative artificial intelligence businesses. altman had said in the past that he would need to probably raise as much as $100 billion to develop open ai's technology you just need an absolutely

ridiculous amount of capital and computing power to do the kinds of things that altman and brockman and others are trying to do. so that's what -- that is the leverage that satya and microsoft has in this moment, and that's how you see that deal coming together so quickly >> hey, kate there was some reporting that here's their understanding of it the new microsoft/open ai deal as best they can tell, microsoft has exclusive rights to use open ai models. they can't use these without using microsoft. if they asked them to train their models by google, they would be sued by microsoft they have their own models over there anyway it gets really muddled what ai is without microsoft, and if all these employees leave. it sounds like open ai basically went to zero in a matter of hours unless they can fix this. >> it's a tremendous loss of value, and in such a short

period period another part of this conversation is open ai raised billions of dollars largely from microsoft, but also from venture capital firms like thrive capital, like sequoia capital, and these are some of the biggest firms in silicon valley that valued this company as recently as weeks ago at $86 billion in a chair sale. what happens to those inv inves investments? how do those investors react to this that's what we'll be reporting on in the coming days and that's another big part of this absolutely crazy story >> kate, we very much appreciate you joining us with this breaking news. we look forward to talking to ntues ain very soon as thi coins to play out. "squawk box" coming back right after this students are inspired and engaged. that's because school districts consulted with cdw to design modern classroom solutions with preconfigured hp devices making education immersive, accessible and secure. now, when researchers study elephants,

kids learn from 9000 miles away. make amazing happen. hp and cdw. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. that rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network.

[speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business.

welcome back, everybody. don chu joins us with his pre-market movers. what do you got, dom >> we start with this pharma giant bayer. this is driven by two factors in particular their first being the company's halt to a late-stage trial to an experimental blood-thinning drug due to lack of positive results and the second with a loss of a court case in missouri tied to

its embattled weed killer product line, so those shares about 19%. we had boeing, the aerospace defense giant up 1.57% right now. 90,000 shares of volume. deutsche bank buying from hold, and pricing from 270 bucks from 204, and they cited aircraft deliveries and better trend for free cash flow those shares up 1.5%, and we'll end with penn entertainment. the casino gaming and online betting provider, neutral from b of a, and they cited amongst other things the successful launch of its online sportsbook partnership with espn. watch penn entertainment up 4.5% i'll send it back over to you. >> thank you we'll see you later this morning. let's get a final check on the markets before we hand it over to "squawk on the street. the dow down by 4 points we started in positive territory

and down by 35 now it's down by 8 the nasdaq up by about 16. we've also been watching yields and those yields of course, have been contained with 4.5% t two-year just below 5% at 4.9% that does it for us today, but we will be right back here tomorrow we will see you all then right now it's time for "squawk on the street. good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla, with jim cramer and david faber futures are mixed. we'll pack a lot in. nvidia, fic minutes, and the whirlwind that is microsoft/open ai we begin with the sam altman saga, abruptly ousted as the ceo now hired at microsoft to create a new advanced ai research team. >> plus, big tech fueling the market rally the magnificent seve