♪ welcome, everybody, to "power lunch" on thanksgiving eve. we're glad you could join us. coming up, opec delaying its meeting. that's having an impact on born yields and stocks as well. we will discuss the ramifications. it's the busiest shopping week of the year. we've heard some caution on earnings calls. and wool have a check from the mall. and before that, let's getting a check on the market. the dow and s&p up exactly the

same fraction, about half a percent today. the nasdaq trying to crack. and the big stock is nvidia lower after its earnings. it's down about 1% right now. we'll have more on that later. as tyler mentioned, oil down about 1% today, bigger declines earlier in the session, as opec canceled or postponed that meeting. a prolonged drop would be deflationary. the yields hit around 435 this morning before bouncing back on some better economic news. let's bring in steve liesman. hi, steve. >> hey, kelly, yeah, a full table of economic data before the holiday. it keeps falling, from 233,

continuing claims also fell. perhaps there's some seasonal problems in there, but durable big miss to the down side. you wonder if higher interest rates spending is earning, and consumer sendment a bit better from spending. through the fed, though, inflation numbers, they have ticked up even while reported sent mob is ticking down. one concern could be for the fed, will the expectations become unanchored from the target. bond yields, they have declined pretty sharply, but hey, jump back up, because perhaps the data did not show more weakness. lower jobless claims could be a sign the overall market is mott weakening as much as had been hoped. it creates some modest chance of

a near-term additional rate hike. none of it, though, to cause indigestion for stocks. this could be feeding, that could serve up additional consumer spending and less inflation, guys, at just the right time of the season. >> have a great thanksgiving, my friend. turning to the big moves in oil, west tex hitting its lowest level, opec is delaying its next meeting, scheduled for sunday. here to break it down is john tilda, cnbc contributor. the saudis seem to be behind this delay in the meeting. what are they dissatisfied about? >> good afternoon, tyler. yes, they're dissatisfied about the participation of the other members of opec plus, in particular, it seems that

they're perturbed at iran and libya, but there are others spee speeding away. you know, undermining the saudi efforts to get back to -- >> in other words, that these producers, whether it's iran, libya or some of the other african nations, they're over-producing their quotas? >> the saudis put an extra 1 million barrel cut on the table. meanwhile, iran's production has been steadily rising, and risen by about 600,000barrels, so offsetting much of the saudi cut. when you add in what the united states has done and others, all of a sudden this ballyhoo by the saudis to try to drain the swamp here in terms of supply, is

falling very, very short, tyler. >> where would you say the price of crude goes, most likely, john? >> i think the saudis were hoping to hit a home run here going into the hard of winter, that prices would get back up. now, given the economic struggles in china and now japan, potentially recession in europe, and to the demand side of the equation is soft, kellie, and also, too, saudis will have a heck of a time reining in other producers. why they think it would be different this time, is a curiosity to me, but they thought they had it. you know, possibly down to the mid to low 60s especially if we have a relatively mild winter here in the northern hemisphere in the united states.

that will be the killer for their outlook. >> what if the saudis sort of throw up their hands and say, we're done trying to rope together or tape together these price -- not price cuts, but production cuts? >> and they've done that in the past, tyler. i can tell you, in the early days of my careers, the opec cartel fell apart and prices crashed. this happened in 2020 right before the pandemic, the saudis flooded the market. they are the lowest-cost producer. that's their ultimate go-to nuclear option. will they do it this time? i think they'll put it on the table. i think they'll be reminding these other countries between now and when they finally meet next thursday, hear, we're only producing 9 million barrels a day. they could flip a switch and push to 12, that could be a mess for everybody.

that's their veiled, or not so veiled threat. >> what does it mean for all energy stocks? it sounds bearish. >> it is bearish in the short term. the demands picture isn't changing. it's going to continue to stay elevated, robust, certainly we are vulnerable to various headlines, vulnerable to weather and obviously vulnerable to geopolitical tumult. they are minting money, doing great. they might get punished here and there, but they are a case of buy the dips for sure i. >> thank you very much, have a good weekend. >> thank you. oil and economic data both

at play here. let's get to rick santelli in chicago with more. curious of what you think, we hit 4.35 on the ten year? >> 4.36 is the low yield i saw. if you blinked, you missed it definitely. about 7:40 eastern time that we hit that level. the reason it was so important, we'll get to that in a minute. let's first look at the near-jerk reaction of one of the data points in particular. if you look at this chart, look what happens at 10:00 eastern, they pop, why? it was a dual issue. we have sluggish university of michigan growth. the improvement was fall, but still the weakest level since may. and if you look at the chart going back, as you just pointed to, to last friday, you can see

why today's yield was so important as we moved below the 4.37 level. friday and tuesday we basically held. so it took it out and reversed quickly. one of the main reasons it reversed, here's a chart of one year of confidence against the one-year inflation. weakest since may, though subtle improvement on confidence. you see that there. look at how the line moves as inflation firms up the one year, hitting 4.5%. we could talk about the fed being pleased that inflation has come down, but many are paying close attention to some of the reversals. kelly, tyler, back to you. have a happy and healthy thanksgiving. thanks to you, my friend. there's breaking news on an explosion in niagara falls.

>> this happened at the rainbow bridge. you can see images of law enforcement on the scene, a very heavy police presence. this is on the canadian side, apparently a vehicle entering into the united states exploded right at the border crossing from the united states -- from canada into the united states. the fbi buffalo field office is saying they are investigating a vehicle explosion at the rainbow bridge, which is a border crossing between the u.s. and canada in niagara falls, the fbi adding, as the situation is very fluid, that's all we can say at this time. i can tell you that the white house says they are monitoring the situation as well. the immediate question will be, whether this was a freak accident of some kind or whether this was a deliberate act of terrorism. that, of course, will be investigated by officials on the scene and a determination will

be made. one would expect -- [ inaudible ] -- all right. that was eamon javers reporting. we'll continue to follow this explosion at the rainbow bridge crossing between the united states and canada. we'll get eamon's signal back up as we need to later this hour. we're learning more by the minute. meantime, how about the moves in oil and bond yields will affect the market today? jack, good to see you. obviously we have green across the screens for now, what do you think the significant is of the drops in bond yields, drops in oil? how big a deal are they? >> i think it's a changing narrative. i think finally at long last, investors do see light at the end of the tightening tunnel. we are starting to see evidence of consumer slowdown, of

economic slowdown. we're seeing inflation abate. i think all of these signals suggest that interest rates obviously have come down from the 5% peak down to well below 4.50. we expect slowing as a result. meanwhile, of course, earnings estimates still are in place, that's why we're seeing equities doing as well as they are this mo month. >> does it keep going? >> i think it can. at some point, of course, slowdown becomes a victim of its own success, so to speak. if earnings do start to deteriorate, and one of the things i point out in a piece i sent out today. if you look at same-store sales, you can't pick whatever retail you want, but essentially the growth that we have seen or the last year has pretty much matched inflation.

that means there's no volume growth. that means a lot of -- and other companies have enjoy over the last 12 months was pure and simply pricing power. well, if prices roll over and they see the downtrend that could tar to hurt earnings and profit margins. >> i wonder, if that's part of one part of the market in particular over another. >> i think, for right now, health care is probably pretty well inns 3/8ed from the vagaries of the economy. they have tended to lag, and these are high quality companies, we're not looking at companies that have to refinance debt, for example. these are also companies that have a strong track record of dividend growth. medtronic 3.5 dividend yield has

been growing annually. ecolab, it's been growing at 5.3% annual rate. lastly, abbvie growing its dividend in a 10.5% annual rate. probably in an environment where, as interest rates come down and things start to slow, high quality growth companies that can pay shareholders pretty healthy and increasing dividends could be a good place to be. >> when does visiting a dividend turn into chasing a dividend? >> i think that's the difference between quality and yield. while dividends have been one of the worst performing areas of the market this year, it wasn't because -- there are really two reasons. one is high-different stocks tend to be bond substitutes. now that bonds are able to find

at their own rate, because of the fed, dividend owners have shifted back to bonds, but the part of the high dividend companies is they tend to be lower quality, they tend to have higher debt. as this debt starts to roll over, that's going to eat into their financial position as well, whereas dividend growers, lower yields, higher quality companies, less decent, and have a good strong track record of growing that different, not just over time, but well in excess of inflation over time. jack ablin, thank you. >> you bet. it's tough to tell how this holiday season will pan out. we'll look at that next. plus chaos at a.i., after a week of drama at openai. we e bicndasally where we

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more. >> that's a question, what ultimately will be the bre breakdown. retailers say it doesn't really matter where buyers buy. a number of retailers like target and kohl's reported lower online sales than last year. urban is a positive. but some are up 5%. black friday, again, expected to be the busiest in-store shopping day of the year. the national retail federation agrees, friday will be the busiest day, estimating 72% of u.s. consumers will stop in store and/or online, up from 69% last year, and a report three

wards of americans will shop in stores sometimes between thanksgiving and cybermonday. that's up 13% from the same time last year. a big question, what will the in-store experience be liked. there's online orders being fulfilled from store merchandise. will retailer be sufficiently staffed and stocked, at least enough to prevent shopper frustration. we'll have to see. >> indeed, what is the answer there? >> do you think they do have sufficient inventory and beam to handle it? >> i think the inventory is probably better in the areas where they choose to put it out. there are some retailers i believe have not chosen to put owl the full stock in some items that are more easily stolen they

said they want to higher thousands of additional seasonal help. when i ask you are you able to find them? , most of them say yes. associates are having to provide extra security, they have to unlock the different locked-up cases, have to fulfill online orders from in-store merchandise. they're doing the self-checkouts with hand devices to make the process easier. it's asking a lot of the employees. i'm going to be interested to see how friction-less it is. >> courtney, happening shopping this weekend. >> thank you, you too. one more insight on the scene at malls. our next guest spend the morning

at garden mall. what did you find? >> courtney was spot on. inventory levels are very controlled. we went through what i would argue as lower inventory levels than last year, second, we saw traffic build throughout the day, which is a promising sign. three, and this is always the key question, what will promotions look like? we saw a lot of retailer put their promos on ahead of thanksgiving. i think it does show a very good holiday. >> it's good that the -- you would have to pay me to go to the garden state plaza today. were there parking spots? >> when you get there at 9:00, there are, but clearly, as the day went on, parking got more difficult. the consumer is in the mood to shop, but i think they want those great deals. >> we talked with connor

yesterday, and he was talking about how many locations are destinations to pick up merchandise. how big of a hunk of business sup? >> pickup from many retailers is one of the biggest growth vehicles. walmart and target have invested in significant amounts for that. >> you know what you want, you've ordered it, you go to the desk, it is there, they check the -- or you've already paid for. >> it doesn't even to no to the desk. with tart, they know you're there, because you have the app, but if you forgot, it's easy to grab the one other item while they get that pickup for you. it's convenient and fast. interestingly, it can help with theft. they're controlling the product, so certainly that's not as big of an issue. >> what is driving foot traffic? what are the hot destination? luxury looks a little weak.

is apple still a big draw? where are the weaknesses? >> clearly the consumer is looking for great deals, great value. luxury, as some people pointed out, has been kind of weak. it's finally starting to pull back. >> for luxury, it feels like you never want to count again that. >> do they have what they had near or what? >> i think it's not an ability to buy. they ask still buy whatever they want. it's how confident do they feel? if something has happened, if it's the macro conditions, interest rates, all the geopolitical events, it's impacted this higher-end consumers. >> courtney was talking about hiring, but in these companies environm haven't hired by now, are they going to?

>> i think the staffing situation is a bit better than last year. there were hiring bonuses, turnover was extraordinarily high. i think we're hearing that it's always a challenge for employees, but maybe not as much as this time last year. certainly they're asking the employees to do more, to do the pickup, watch the store more closely, but i think the employment situation is less acute than last time. where does this leave you on the stocks? we've some big gainers. where do you have the most confidence? >> we like value right now. for walmart and target, they give significant value to the consumer, they have the convenient pickup. this is the one subsector in the third quarter, i think it was a real winner, t.j. max, and ross. the rest could be difficult. >> target, though, somewhat controversial pick to be a clear value when it had a really tough

year. you think they have turned a corner? >> some of it is they're just more disciplined than in years past. inventory levels are very, very controlled. they don't need to be as promotional as maybe last year. >> i will be doing some channel check there. a shoutout to your daughter as well. >> is she here? >> she's here. come on over. quickly. >> her name is lizzie. happy thanksgiving, lizzie. how old you? >> i'm 11. >> so you're in fifth grade? >> sixth grade. wow. cool. >> smart cookie. have a good holiday. >> you too. thank you both. further ahead, we'll talk nvidia after the break. stay with us. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium.

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well back, everybody. more details emerging on the explosion near niagara falls. eamon javers has the details. hi, eamon. >> reporter: this information coming from nbc news, according to four law enforcement officials briefed on the situation, the explosion on niagara falls was a result of a vehicle crashing into the

checkpoint structure at the u.s./canada border. the vehicle was traveling at a high rate of speed, it hit the structure, caught on fire, and then exploded. an initial search did not find a secondary explosive or device. that is, there's no initial indication so far of a bomb in the car. there are two casualties, we are told. those are the occupants of the vehicle. authorities are now trying to determine whether the incident was intentional, and if so, what was the motive here. all of this, of course, subject to change as more evident is collected, but the information given to nbc news indicates a vehicle hitting that border guard position at a high rate of speed, then bursting into flames and then exploding. no indication so far of a bomb on that vehicle, but the two

casualties appear to be the occupies of the vehicle. let's get for contessa brewer for a cnbc update. israel's prime minister promised the war would continue following the cease-fire. they will pause the fighting for at least four days and at least 150 palestinian women and children in exchange for the reese of 50 israeli hostages nothing being held by hamas. hamas says the cease-fire starts tomorrow. a jury cited with several companies in a lawsuit against the nation's largest egg producers, and two trade groups. the suit argued that they conspired to restrict the supply of eggs, forcing the companies to over pay. the jury will decide the amount of damages in a trial starting next week. preparations have begun, workers are carefully blowing up massive balloon to be featured

in tomorrow's macy's thanksgiving day parade. the iconic parade started nearly 100 years ago. that's why so many pots burned, because we were all watching the parade. >> got to stir the gravy. contessa, thank you. ahead on "power lunch," stocks to be thankful for. we'll lay hout the cornucopia made. that's's today's three stock lunch.

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welcome back. chip giant nvidia just blew past estimates for earnings and revenues, sale of more than $18 bill are tripled a year ago quarter, but there are concerns on the horizon. kristina partsinevelos has a look. >> kelly, china remains a major concern, an overhang for the management. that's because u.s. export controls were expanded in october, blocking sales to the country and would, quote,

significantly impact q4 revenues. that's limiting the guidance number as well. the cfo add mitting they don't know the impacts of the controls over the long term. 21% to 12% just over the last three quarters, and they keep raising outlooks without china as a major customer. there's also a lot of doubt over the sustainability of demand once the backlog, once that gets worked out, aka inventory digestion, what that means for companies? when you take a step back it's down, what you recent all-time highs. really -- and actually have its

it's trading at 32 times, but arguing that's cheep, and further at to that, there are new products coming out. there's expanse in solve water and networking, which is showing up some visibility into the future. >> so, the nvidia -- [ laughter ] >> i know. >> the shares are down, but other competitors are moving in the opposite direction. all companies are still spending a lot of money on the large language models, and

inindividual said they saw a run rate for networking, one for software, and they believe it will grow. intel has its a.i. events on the 14th. and other players, two, it's like a-net, that's a exercise tore it falls into that category over, dan there's two others i want to mention. they are a big player when it comes to software -- up about 20% and these are plays that may aren't as sexy as -- but they play a big role when it comes to creating the systems and.

>> i never thought that it will be sexy and ethernet in the same sentence. >> funny where this job takes you? >> good places. >> thanks, kristina. sam altman back at openai, days ago after the board of the start-up fired him. deirdre bosa digs into who has come out of all of this on top? >> it's extort hard to say, tyler. they're back at offices open, no mass exodus. five days ago, the board was largely unknown to the broader

public. now he has one holdover, and joined by two of the most prominent leaders, fred taylor, and former treasury secretary larry summers. their initial task is to appoint an expanded board, up to nine people, who will reset governance. it looks like microsoft, at least, because openai can continue to operate as a research lab, and openai will takes on the executional risks for microsoft. microsoft doesn't have a board seat yet, but it raises the question, does it even want one? existing investors, another group that for now seems to be the winner, if openai achieves that $80 billion-plus valuation, that's certainly good news for

the for early investors. you were talking about nvidia. interesting to think about their position in all of this. you still knee the compute power, but some wonder if sam altman and greg brockman went to microsoft, because they have more capital for their hardware division, as has been reported. could they be a more credible competitor to nvidia? >> altman has gone back as the ceo, and i don't know whether he's chair, but the kreismt on of company as well . >> because they'll continue to work with microsoft, and they have lost their board possession, so alternateman comes back as ceo reportedly. he's looking for a board seat. i don't know if that will happen, but it's interesting to see how it shapes up. how do they divide that between the cautious crowd that's

looking, you know, for generative a.i., and how many people will be more commercial focused, right? >> the number 10 billion has been thrown around as the number that microsoft has put into the company. i heard that it was $10 billion is misleading, because it tun ten billion in cash, but in credits to use as azure. is that right? >> that's correct, the latest round that microsoft commit to put in $10 billion. amazon has similar wording with anth anthropic. in that way, we did a deep dive this for a "techcheck" weekly piece. it's very win-win for microsoft.

they also get it in terms of revenue, too. very interesting. okay. deirdre bosa, thank you. coming up, the travel rush is on. thksvi wke to acangingeendbrk reports. ?

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welcome back. phil lebeau is at chicago o'hare with an update on how it's looking out there. >> reporter: very quiet. we're at terminal 3. this is where american is based. hardly anybody. i know it's the middle of the day. it's the lull of the day. it will pick up later, but altogether, no problems here. 2.7 million people already flying nation wired. more than 49,000 flights, cancellations totalling 629. you want to know how good it is?

take a look at the flightaware misery map. we show this when there's cancellations, bad weather, a ton of receipt. those little dots right there, that's basically a very clean day in terms of people flying. take a look at the airline stocks and how they're doing did. they're doing pretty well. now you see they're closer to unchanged or slightly bottom line. also the good news today for boeing, with the 737-max-10, that's the long-range plane. if you're one of the airlines, you could feel better. >> phil, thank you very much.

have a great holiday yourself, my friend. >> you too. tomorrow is thanksgiving, of course. it's only right to express what we are thank much for. we'll have more on the other side of this break. ♪ (captivating music) ♪ (♪♪)

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time for today's "three stock lunch." we have three stocks to be thankful for. gina sanchez is chief of market strategist and a cnbc contributor. you say you're thankful for the cloud this thanksgiving, and despite the ai hype dying down a bit, you see a bit more to come from this space. let's talk about a stock that if you owned it, you would be feeling thankful today, nvidia, tripling quarterly revenue. the shares are a little bit down

making it one of the worst performers today. you're thankful for it. if i owned it, i would be thankful for it. >> this is one we've owned all year, and it has been the gift that keeps on giving. the china concerns are very real. for the time being, however, it still scores well enough to be a part of the top 40 stocks we put in our portfolio and it's maintained its position there. that could change but for now this is the top maker of gpus and chips that feed not just processors but also the visual side, gaming, et cetera. we just continue to see them being a major player. that's not going away anytime soon. >> all right. don't forget about amd. the shares are up over 2% in outperforming the market. it lives in its big brother's shadow. you're plenty thankful for it. >> we are plenty thankful for it and if we put the three stocks in order, this would be our

favorite stock. amd just launched their mi-300 accelerator and that is expected. amd, you think of as the bargain budget friendly chips that go into drives, pcs, et cetera, just the general consumer space. this mi-300 chip, accelerator, could make a play for significant ai computational programming and could buck up against nvidia. so there's a lot more to come, we think, out of amd. >> another one you love and that is microsoft, all-time highs. why are you thankful for it? >> this is one that as we have benefited from the environment, this is a company that has been incredibly innovative in terms of how they work with customers

and clients, grow and benefit from that as they get stronger. the margins on microsoft are massive. we're talking huge margins compared to the rest of the space. we just see the cloud world continuing to expand even if we go through a tightening in spending and i.t. budgets and people are expecting that. we think there's a lot of room to run. >> happy thanksgiving. >> i'm thankful for gina sanchez. still ahead, so many headlines but so lite tltime. we will power through as many as we can next. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are.

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welcome back. three minutes and several more stories to get to before we go today starting with tomorrow being the first thanksgiving of the ozempic era, which could make for some awkward thanksgiving dinner conversation. people taking ozempic, wegovy a. >> smaller portions. >> on the preparing side of this, i understand. please, eat. i labored over this for days. >> we have several vegans coming, antithetical, but they're bringing their own

dishes. the fcc proposing a rule to ban early termination fees for cable and satellite service contracts as more and more consumers cut the cord. i don't know how i feel about this. i'm not sure why the government needs to get involved in that. >> you know, as ever, okay, probably bad for the providers. if they had better service, people wouldn't be so irate. a prorated credit or rebate for the remaining billing days of the cycle. as the affordability gap widens, according to the national association of realtors, the median age has jumped ten years from 39 to 49. first-time buyers had a median age of 35 this year and repeat buyers 58 compared with 36 in 1981. it's part ofthe aging of the

population and also the fact houses cost more and you have to have bigger money for down payments. >> there's this debate whether the millennials are worse off than their parents were. you can find data points to support that or not support it day by day this would go in the camp of, yes, it's harder than it used to be. should i? the story that shocked the newsroom today, daryl hall is suing john oates. i'm not sure who these two people are. >> you don't know? >> i know hall and oates. it doesn't have the same impact. hall has a restraining order against oates as well. we don't know what oates is accused of but paul is saying, i can't go for that. >> they were one of the biggest duets of the '70s and '80s. i had this feeling they don't get along because they don't perform much together.

>> in an era you can rake in money. >> daryl hall had a run with todd rungren where they played old favorites. >> it's hard to be closely tied to someone that long a period of time. >> divorce. happy thanksgiving. >> i will listen to them on the way home. "closing bell" starts right now. thank you, kelly. welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. this make-or-break hour begins with a celebration under way on wall street. the s&p 500 climbing to close to the 2021 high. the nasdaq 100 outperforming on the day despite a slight dip in nvidia shares. the ten-year treasury yield steady, just above a two-month low. a hot inflatio