money. >> daryl hall had a run with todd rungren where they played old favorites. >> it's hard to be closely tied to someone that long a period of time. >> divorce. happy thanksgiving. >> i will listen to them on the way home. "closing bell" starts right now. thank you, kelly. welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. this make-or-break hour begins with a celebration under way on wall street. the s&p 500 climbing to close to the 2021 high. the nasdaq 100 outperforming on the day despite a slight dip in nvidia shares. the ten-year treasury yield steady, just above a two-month low. a hot inflation expectation

number. the bond market is taking it in stride. it our "talk of the tape." after gaining more than 10% in under four weeks, is this stock market rally getting overcooked or can the market feed off soft landing hopes and positive seasonal patterns? let's ask bryn talkington, managing partner of requisite capital management and cnbc contributor. bryn, it's great to have you here. the market seems in a pretty comfortable mode here. i guess the question is, are we getting overbought? will something come along to disturb things? it seems gdp is tracking okay. we have the holiday week trading which has an upward bias. >> mike, we sure have had a big santa claus rally well before santa claus is even coming down the chimney. i think the market will continue

to grind higher. you have not only animal spirits but the seasonality that's in full effect. the mutual fund selling at the end of the quarter was really extreme and we've been off to the races and so i think the technology will continue to lead going into the year end. the returns have already been had. >> yeah, a grind you take it after what happened from august through october, i suppose. everyone seems to be very eager to want to see the nontechnology stocks contribute, and they did come off their lows. we have seen a little bit of a back from the brink action in cyclicals and banks and things like that. is that important or is it just nice to have as part of a rally? >> i think longer term you want to see that. you don't want to have seven stocks holding up the proverbial

other 493. other stocks have done well besides the other seven. goldman had a really good report out about looking forward. and if you look at those magnificent seven stocks from '23 to '25 they expect sales growth of 11% versus 3% for the other 493 and margins to come in at 22 versus 10. i think we have a really good bounce off the bottom with especially the small cap names. i think right now while we still don't know if we're going to get rate cuts next year, which i disagree with the market, i think it will be much later in the year than the market has priced in. i think now, the small caps, those should be a trade not a strategic allocation to go into at this moment. >> it's a good remind wher it comes to the dominance of the very largest nasdaq stocks, for one thing they're mostly making a roundtrip from two years ago. for another it's the quality trade, the predictable earnings,

the better balance sheets, the clear growth outlooks. and we'll see how long that can last and how expensive the stocks can get on that basis. in terms of the fed, do you think that maybe the market is overanticipating that at least on paper because you think the economy and inflation will be sticky or more resilient or because the fed wants to wait as long as possible? >> i definitely take my cues from the market and look to be pragmatic, not dogmatic. the market is telling us the fed is done. that being said, the fed being done higher for longer is not priced in. what's priced in now as you see the animal spirits with the meme names, we're going to get cuts sooner rather than later. if you look at core cpi, that's not telling you we'll have rate cuts on the horizon.

unless an ex ogenous rate happens, for banks, commercial real estate and the smaller segments of the market, which, to me, gives legs to once again going back into tech, which really are somewhat immune to a higher for longer environment. >> the market's determination they're immune, from various types of disruption going on in other parts of the economy. on that point, stick with us, bryn, we'll talk a little bit more about nvidia. shares under pressure despite results. kristina partsinevelos with a breakdown of that report. hey, kristina. china revenue remains a concern though management assured investors they could find growth from other regions. that's because u.s. export controls are blocking sales to the country and would, quote, significantly impact q4 revenues and that's limiting its

guidance. the number is at 20 billion for the upcoming quarter, but that number could have been higher according to management. the cfo admitting they don't know the impact of the controls. there's a big hang having some question how can nvidia keep up the beat without china as a major customer? there are doubts over the sustainability of demand once this backlog is down, especially if some companies are double ordering, you look at the stock, it's only, what, 2% off its high. i know you talked about this before. it's rare to see a stock hit its all-time high and have forward p/e come down. it's trading at 32 times with the bulls arguing that's cheap when you compare it to its five-year average. plus nvidia is ramping up new products, specifically within

gpus. with management also noting increased purchase commitments, and that's positive visibility into the future, which kind of answer that is demand question. but the sell-off continues today. china could be the end of the week, a few reasons, ai peak. >> the stock just getting back to where it was the first time two weeks ago. bryn, you own nvidia. i'm guessing you feel the long-term story is more or less confirmed. exactly what trajectory this break neck growth can continue the next couple of years. >> sure. that's also why you see the stocks sell off today. obviously it's over 240% year to date. if you think about this, mike, this continues to be the company that is fully monetizing ai.

they did 18 billion this quarter, more than all of 2021. if i compare to amd, an awesome company company, they did 5.8 billion. if people are worried about the growth of ai chips or the whole platform of ai much more than chips, what does that mean for the other companies that haven't even ramped up yet? i think it's just clear that nvidia remains in pole position. they help developers make the gpus more efficient to ethernet on steroids, and they are controlling from a to z on this whole ai. jensen said multiple times this is a decade-long change and they are going from cpus to gpus, a trillion dollar spend. it's not all going to happen in one year. i think people should be

patient. if you don't own it, take the opportunity. they're just dominating across the whole sector and they're playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. >> without a doubt, the numbers are stark. you can't deny the magnitude of this growth. i almost wonder, though, if at some point it works against the company, the base effect gets so large. i mentioned if you look at the earnings estimates a couple years out, it looks like $60 billion in net income. sales this year are tracking for under $60 billion. they're going to eat a huge chunk. >> you're spot on. >> if you look at the stock, there's been about ten years it's been up over 100% and multiple years it's down 50% plus. there's a lot priced into this name and, to me, as i think through it, i sell calls against it at this level.

i do think 500 has been through two quarters. selling 550 calls you can bring in about $20 of premium. it helps you dance around this level. as an investor you have to say, have they leveled up in earnings and then grow from this level, or is this going to be an epiphany and they level back down? i think they've leveled up. >> let's broaden it out here. welcome to you both. the market seems, again, every time we have relief in the market it seems to be the soft landing is back on. the fed is done. we have peak yields, peak oil. all those things seem friendly to markets. is it mraus able?

>> i think where the peak inflation was since covid, it was considered almost 10%, considerably higher than where we are now. we've disinflated thus far without unemployment coming up much at all. i don't think a couple years ago -- certainly a year ago. this was conceivable. that said we do expect inflation to prove sticky. >> in the 3% area or core higher than that, the market you think is getting ahead of itself on rates next year for rate cuts? i don't think it's unexpected the market is getting ahead of itself. >> how does this play into the market next year?

not many people thought we could do that. how does the macro environment set us up for 2024? >> sure, thanks, mike. in terms of what's going on for 2024, it's really going to be determined by all of the macroeconomic data as it comes in. the fed is dependent upon what data comes in, where those inflation levels are. in terms of the inflation expectation levels being a little bit higher than everybody wants them to be, the university of michigan numbers kept coming in higher. i think the fed is going to be reactive and the market is then going to be reactive to how the fed believes the data is. >> and do you think that means the current market profile of, you know, the resilient growth stocks, the secular growth stories can work, everything

else is a show-me story or have we already kind of discounted the cyclical groups and maybe we can find some way? >> in either seven scare yeoh whether we are heading into a recession, those are the times in which you want to pick up some of those cyclical stocks because they can recover the most. but if we are truly in a situation in which we have a soft landing, pull back in the economy isn't going to be as bad. it is probably too much. >> the fed hasn't said it's going to cut rates. it's not going to cut rates. if you look how transparent to the extent they're able to, they still have said they feel they have to keep policy restrictive to run the economy below trend for a while. we haven't been able to run below trend.

i see some loosening of the labor market. how long can we keep up with that? >> i think that's a question the fed is asking itself. i don't think they expected this if you look at their projections from the summer, and i think they've been quite encouraged by what's happening in employment, so some of the secondary markets have been slowing. i think a bit hinges on participation next year. we want a participation rate to expand or at least not contract. it happens with wage growth and helps to keep the fed on hold and comfortably on hold. when they're going to lower rates and they've given guidance. chair powell has given guidance not until the second half of next year. >> that being said, they don't even expect to get to their inflation target, it would seem

they have time to allow the data to come in their direction. >> absolutely. i think part of the reason the market is pricing sooner cuts is because the market may believe the data will help the fed more quickly than the fed itself anticipates. >> bryn, you april lewded earlier to that idea, whenever the market feels better about things, you sometimes do see some of the speculative stuff run a little bit. that's happened to a degree recently. and maybe that reflects people expect rate cuts. on the other hand, if inflation is down and trending and below 4%, the stock market usually does okay with that. if long-term yields have seen their highs for the foreseeable, maybe stocks can find a way around it. >> yeah, sure. i think going into the beginning of this year, myself included, the possibility of a soft landing was small. you have to have a bigger

spectrum to say that may be the base case. you have to put an asterisk around that soft landing because never in the history have we had this much fiscal stimulus prerecession and not been in a war in the u.s. and so what are the unintended consequences of that? i know yields are down, which is great. i think with how much fiscal debt we have will be front and center. you can't say the fed did such a great job, we have all this fiscal stimulus. >> maybe the big, unintended consequence was 13% unemployment for a while. the conversations you're having with your clients, one of the things you want to look out for are retail investors getting overexcited, or are they still looking to play defense?

>> i think it's a mix. definitely a little bit of defense because the run-up has been so great this year. investors are definitely taking advantage of and just given the uncertainty for 2024, people are being cautious. that's why the quality names have been where people have been hiding. >> for sure. it doesn't hurt to have a little bit of a wall of worry. thanks so much. bryn, we will see you in "the market zone." up next, trouble in the charts. why one technician is flagging some weakness for stocks as we look ahead to 2024. he will make his case and break down where he is seeing opportunity. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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welcome back to "closing bell am" the s&p 500 up about 0.4% today looking to lock in its longest weekly win streak since june, and while our next guest remains positive in the near term, he says the charts could be pointing to potential longer term trouble. let's bring in the head of technical strategy at macro risk advisers. john, it's good to have you here. i know were you giving credit to the market for this recent reversal higher, just because it was broad and you had a little bit of a sense of urgency in

some of the technical readings off that low but maybe not getting escape velocity yet. what still gives you pause? >> thanks for having me on. happy thanksgiving. what's giving me pause? where do i begin? for starters, it's the lack of breadth that's going on. the magnificent seven, there's nothing wrong with those particular stocks. the market of stocks themselves are troublesome. it's okay to be bullish the s&p but not okay to be bullish the market of stocks. number one, it's breadth, number two, the macro has gotten a little bit better but it's hard to say with a high degree of confidence the trend has fully reversed or the dollar will be breakly significantly lower right away. >> the breadth divergence or the average stock has lagged the s&p

500 market cap weighted, it's clear to everyone, it's been remarked upon, people to buy it to some degree. about a third of the s&p 500 stocks are up. that's not a lot but it's not seven. what is it that should be worrisome? >> i think it goes into animal spirits. when i talk to clients, they have to own more than seven stocks. a good chunk looks like the russell 2000. it doesn't give them a lot of conviction so you need to see those parts of the market turn into uptrends for animal spirits to kick in and that way we can have a strong bull market of everything. right now it's just a bull market of just a few. can the southwest continue to push up higher?

sure. the magnificent seven is fine. they're up a lot, sure. if it were to break out the highs of '22, we could look as high as 5500 at some point next year. i think more of the same is what i think will happen next year. >> interesting. as we monitor how things are handled, the market looks stretched already. how would you grade things on that pullback? >> i think that's what we need to observe. this has been uncorrected. twha what are we looking for? a corrective decline, something that doesn't have negative breadth, low volumes on the down side. don't want to see the s&p break down underneath 4200. if it breaks 4100 in particular,

be guess what, this two-year range of bear market, because it is until you make the higher high, can work as low as 3800. >> that would get us back to the lows of march. john, thanks for the time. appreciate it. >> thank you for having me. >> have a great holiday. crude crushed. oil under pressure. what's behind the sharp leg lower and what is at stake for the energy space ahead.

welcome back. oil under pressure as opec delays its policy meeting. brian, what do we make of it? >> the market came back, mike. oil was down 4%. still ended lower but quite a day. opec this morning delayed its

in-person meeting. a number of its, flights and hotels booked, delayed it to the 30th. the delay over a disagreement of production levels with member nations, nigeria and angola. they all have to agree. here is the question, could this be the sign of a fracture or a benign four-day pause to have the current output verified? either way this meeting hotly anticipated. some big decisions have to be made. whether to extend the production cuts would be seen as slightly bullish for oil or extend and enhance them, make them longer or bigger than the 1 million

from russia and saush, or if opec plus cannot make a deal, let the cuts roll off at the end of the year that would add another 1.3 billion marls per day, back to a market that has more than enough oil. oil prices could fall. that is the least likely outcome. it comes on top of debates around the total cuts by all 23 opec plus nations. those were done, mike, by setting a quota system in june that runs for a year. those have to be agreed to again and renegotiating will be the hard part because nigeria and a couple other nations may want more of their oil sold. if they want to keep total production at a level, somebody, like the saudis, will have to cut production and saudi arabia,

not sure if they would agree to that. they have been bearing the brunt of the production cuts. oil now below where it began the year. unclear if the new meeting on the 30th will be in person or virtual. we will have more with helima croft and bob mcnally, two who do go to opec meetings. >> brian, appreciate the thorough setup right there. we'll be tuning in for that later on. thanks very much, brian sullivan. where are we now with crude? in the u.s. we want to talk about this and how it fits into all of the portfolio positioning you might want to do. the co-founder of 314 research. let's start with oil. i know you do plenty of work on that. what's the read on it? it acts like a market that's oversupplied. should we be taking away anything about global demand or the economy, and where does it go from here? >> thank you for having me.

i am proudly not one of the analysts that go to the opec meetings. everything i do is based on data and modeling. with that kind of preample, i think everyone in the oil business is used to this week of the year, thanksgiving, a lot of nervousness. we've had bad meetings, all involving opec and unable to get on the same page. i think we're at a similar junction. we have all this opec supply held off the market now for most of the year, for the better part of this year, and it's something we've been thinking about for a while, 3fourteen. we're in the middle of the debate. that's the overhang that's weighing on the market now. what's driven crude oil prices has been speculative position. every time we get to an extreme in positioning. it's paid to go the other

direction. we were long in early july and got out of that position and was based off going too far in one direction. right now i think we're in the process of that off. you're coming on the back of mexico hedging their production so banks have a tendency so we're in a trap door. we're out of the market now. for the most part i think opec will come to an agreement here but not anything that can save that speculative rotation. >> it doesn't seem as if it's helpful to the general slow down but not too slow, the soft landing, take the edge off inflation expectations, bond

yields coming lower. is it fully benign or can we find something to worry about in all of this? >> it's not, in my opinion, demand driven. we've had opec getting frustrated understandably so russia cheating, a big pipeline outage allowing iraqi production to come back. the uae is want to go get more production on the market. all these small producers brian was talking about. i don't think you can read recession from the drop in oil price. ultimately it's a good thing for consumers and markets. >> and then where does it leave you with regard to stocks as we've had this rally in the indexes, we're not too high for the highs of the year. it feels we're in a period where the market can deal with the

idea the fed is done. what's the opportunity? what are you looking out for? >> we're in a fed pos. >> this is a period of optimism, then generally the last eight months would put the first fed cut in march and stocks rally, bonds have rallied. this is a time where all assets are rallying. you have to look at what's happening under the economic surface. i do think the soft landing is building but, unfortunately, markets have already kind of fully priced that in. any disappointment on interest rate policy you're seeing a chance of a fed cut in the march meeting already, i think that's overly optimistic.

you have the economic reality on one hand competing with what markets are pricing in on the other and the markets get ahead of themselves. we've been riding bonds over stocks. that's been our position really since october 19 when yields on the ten year hit 5%. >> that eight-month average between the fed's final hike and the first cut is an average, as long as 18 months a couple of times. i guess you have to operate as long as the economic numbers hold together, the market will stay supportive? >> i think that pause can only last so long. there's a big variation and on

there have been 12 cycles we count. you're already against the odds for a soft landing. the longest pause we've ever seen for a soft landing is seven months. that was 2018. the same fed, that was powell back then. that's the outer limits of the fed pause. i think it's something to keep in mind. we're already beyond the limits of a soft landing and one more data point i would throw out is we've seen a 0.5% rise in the unemployment rate. unemployment rising because of multiple jobholders. that's never happened in a soft landing. we've never seen a 0.5% rise. clearly the economy is decelerating softly. i think you can make a case either way. >> certainly never a moment you're going to get an all-clear. warren, great to talk to you. thanks so much.

>> happy thanksgiving. >> up next, tracking the biggest movers. kristina is standing by with those. >> there's a theme a by the just doesn't cut it. two names might be saying otherwise. details next. meet gold bond daily healing. a powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals,

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breaking news on the vehicle explosion at niagara falls rainbow bridge. eamon javers? >> reporter: wnbc's jonathan dienst has obtained exclusive video now of the incident at the u.s./canada border in niagara falls. take a look at these images. you're looking at the very top of your screen and what you're seeing moving from left to right here is a white vehicle coming into the border patrol area at a very high rate of speed. it hits some sort of barrier there and then goes completely airborne. you see higher maybe than the guard hut there, the perspective can be off here, but that is a vehicle -- you can imagine the speed that vehicle must have in order to get that airborne, and what we're told happened just after this clip ends is the vehicle then hits the customs and border protection guard area, bursts into flames and then explodes.

we're told there are two confirmed dead and those are the occupants of that vehicle, still unclear what the intent was here, if any, and authorities are pursuing that. the airport in buffalo is now closed. authorities are keeping a lookout for any other suspicious activity. the mayor of new york has sent nypd officers to assist in the investigation. we'll see what more details come in the hours to come. we also know the white house says the president has been briefed and is monitoring the situation. not clear if this is at this point, mike, a freak accident, or is if is a deliberate act of terror. we will have to wait for authorities to get to the bottom of this. back to you. >> eamon, appreciate the update. we have 16:30 until the closing

bell. back to kristina for a look at the key stocks to watch. it takes a lot to impress investors. deere may have beat earnings, but guidance fell short. corn and soybean prices are falling, and that could hit farm incomes. when incomes fall, less money for equipment. oh, dear. the stock is down over 3%. software autodesk may have beat earnings, but the mixed outlook not pleasing investors with shares down 6%. billings fell 11% year over year. instead of using an annual customer renewal system they moved to three-year contracts built up front. the ceo was asked about this weakness on cnbc this morning. it contributed that weakness to cyclicality. quote, there's always puts and takes in the business. share is down almost 7%. >> kristina, thanks so much. up next, streamers struggling this holiday season. now some of the biggest players are shaking up their approach to airner fresh gns. the details, how it might impact stocks after the break.

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shaping up as a tough holiday season for streaming companies and now some of the biggest names in the space, julia boorstin with all the details. the streamers are under pressure to deliver profitable growth which is why they have all hiked price this is year. shares have outperformed all the other streamers and added the most subscribers, 24 million, which might be why it's promoting bridgerton o "stranger things" rather than offering discounts. hulu is offering ad supported plan for $1 a month, an $80

savings, if subscribers commit for the whole year, max is slashing the price with max with ads from $3 to $10 for the first ten months and then paramount is offering new subscribers a nearly 70% discount. peacock, part of our parent company, is offering new subscribers its premium tier for $20 for the whole year. we'll have to see how consumers respond to lower cost ad-supported plans in this push for longer commitments. mike? >> yes, we will, the presence of those plans is a new wrinkle. up next, we're just a few days away from black friday. the key stocks every investor needs to be watching. rk ze.take you "inside the maeton" that's what freddie told me. - it was the best thing i've ever done, and- - really? - yes, without a doubt! - i don't have any anxiety about money anymore.

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while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. in the "closing bell" market zone, bryn talkington is back to break down the final minutes, plus ken on the recent breakout in home builder stocks and courtney reagan on the outlook for retailers this black friday. bryn, we talked about the big seven, meta and amazon making new highs. there is a variety of names. you have take two interactive, chipotle, expedia, hilton. parts of the market that are these predictable growth stocks, is that an area still fruit worth picking or is it already

picked over? >> i think those are individual names that will continue to do well. i think take two and chipotle have nothing in common except they're well-run companies. we talk about the seven but there are always great names to find secular winners like a chipotle. >> let's get to ken from seaport on the home builders. we had a 20% decline. they bottomed. now a 20% climb. what else is going on in the home builders you can grab hold of? >> there's certainly the macro conditions, the interest rates causing that volatility, however, the early cycle bias, falling interest rates, the fed not tightening anymore, if you

look at the ten year, historically is very good for the group. you can have these 20% drawbacks, with unemployment rate at 3%, low or existing inventory condition. we expect them to trade up into next year. >> so if existing home sale inventory does start to increase, if you clear the market because rates are friendly or whatever is that to a disadvantage to the home builders? they seem to be benefitting from the lack of turnover otherwise. >> well, most do benefit from just general liquidity.

people are trying to position as a bear case, we think that's inconsistent with history. 4% september year over year. i think we need to realize how much of a disconnect that is from the post-1980s when you think about '05 or '09. that was not the case in the 1960s on 1970s. >> we have to go further back, i guess, into the past to see a similar setup right now. appreciate the time, ken. we do have to run. courtney, what are the retailers expecting to see? >> tomorrow begins the most critical five-day stretch. more americans will shop in this time period. the etf made up of e-commerce heavy retailers is up more than 1%.

adopey says that thanksgiving to cyber monday stretch will make up an estimated 70% of sales with black friday and cyber monday. adobe says we're up 5% november 1 to the 20th on those numbers. shares of burlington gaining more than 4% on top of tuesday's 21% gain. beauty nearly pos ly positive a the sector. nordstrom, urban outfitters and guess trading down sharply after their after the bell reports tuesday. >> no small moves in this group, court. bryn, we talk about the health of the consumer, low unemployment. still good consumer balance sheets. retailer by retailer it's hard to predict how it will play.

is this an area you will be looking at? >> it's an area going into this type of year and shopping. i think if i were going to invest, the three names are walmart, amazon and shopify. shopify is the rails. amazon, everyone shops there and everyone wants a good value. walmart sold off and i think that was a mixed bag. i think walmart looks interesting at these levels. >> that suggests more defensive. you can't count on discretionary purchases coming back too much. >> walmart has a ton of games, they have video and food. as everyone is looking at their wallets and what can my dollar spend and buy, walmart is really changed the experience the last at the point years. i think inflation is still there for consumers.

walmart will benefit this holiday season. you probably have some good momentum in the first quarter of '24 earnings. >> the stock roughly 9% off its highs. bryn, thanks for the heim. we'll talk to you again soon. the s&p 500 up about 0.4%, above 4550, it was about 4568 this morning. it takes you back to august 1st. the high for the s&p right around the 4600 level. the russell 2000 trying to pull even for the week to date. that's enabled this stock rally

that amounts to 10.5% in under four weeks to continue at least for now, the wednesday before thanksgiving, continues its status as one of the seasonally most bullish days of the year. don't forget to tune in for a special edition of "closing bell" this black friday. that is at 12:00 p.m. eastern time. happy thanksgiving. jon and morgan taking you to "overtime." and we'll see santoli in a bit. winners stay late. welcome to "closing bell overtime." i'm jon fortt with morgan brennan. thomas hoenig will talk about the treasury yields and how the fed's next decision. >> another twist in the openai saga. sam altman is back as ceo with major changes to the board. we'll talk about it means with microsoft shareholders and silicon valley. investors have a lot to be thankful for wit