forecast. we take you live to the mall for the update of black friday shopping. it is friday, november 24th, 2024. happy thanksgiving, everybody. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and steve liesman. wake up, steve. joe is off today. we are here. we will get you ready for the short session today. the stock market will close at 1:00 p.m. bond market closing at 2:00 p.m. if you look at the u.s. equities, you will see da-- tha

is the time we are closing. the dow is in solid territory. gain of 93 right now. s&p futures are up close to five. nasdaq indicated off one point. on wednesday, you saw all three of the major average ans s on wednesday, you saw all three of the major average an higher. you have seen six of receseven higher for the nasdaq and dow. you see them coming up significantly. 5.5% below the all-time highs for the s&p and dow. if you are looking at treasury yields, you will see the treasury yield at 4.7%. what is that? >> what's what? that sound? is that the sound? shopping bags? >> i don't know what that is. it's something on your -- >> oh, it's my phone. i don't know what sound that is. >> i don't know. >> strange.

>> sorry. >> never mind. i'm glad i'm here. >> it is not just my head. the voices in my head. we have been watching crude oil prices. >> crude prices pulled back after the opec policy meeting on wednesday. reuters reported that oil producing kcountries were struggling for output ahead of the meeting this week. angola wanted more output. the meeting is virtually on november 30th. crude prices at $76. a good gift for those shopping. it's like a tax cut. >> it is shocking to see prices as low as they he have gone. the opec meeting and the reason for the delay is not clear at this point. what the major speculation has been is they are not completely confirmed. not solidarity in terms of what opec may or may not do.

it was fell below $75 when the came out on wednesday. it is happening the same time when you see the four-day cease-fire in the middle east. >> what is interesting is oil was going to be or normally would be the conduit by which all of the turmoil in the middle east would effect the u.s. economy. that is not the case. one potential reason, becky, is how much oil we produce in this country. >> sure. >> the idea that there would be embargo which could lift prices and if it didn't exist, the fear of the embargo to lift prices -- we are exporting oil. that conduit is not a means by which you would transmit that turmoil into the u.s. economy. >> andrew, it has been something to watch. there were people who were expecting much higher prices. >> yup. >> part is the supply side and the other is the demand side and

weakness this china put pressure on wti before we heard from many of these things happening in the middle east. >> i was thinking of every analyst we had on the last two months has called for much higher prices. i can't remember somebody who came on who said we would be $76. let's talk about another developing story which may have an impact on oil prices. story in gaza. temporary cease-fire began overnight and is said to be holding. it is said to last for four days. the first group of 13 hostages scheduled to be released at 9:00 a.m. eastern time this morning. we will bring you updates as we get them. a story back here at home in new york. mayor eric adams has been a accused of assaulting a woman in the 1990s. she is seeking $5 million in damages. mayor adams rejected the

allegations and doesn't recall ever meeting the accuser and denying the claims. the assummons filed the day befe the act and statute of limitations expired. the date of this ruling ended yesterday and that's why you see so many different suits brought forward. we have been talking about a number of suits in the past couple weeks. there is another two-year window related to another related law that may allow other cases to be brought as well. i know we have been discussing a number of these and as an explanation of the timing of seeing so many of them. that is what is happening. right now, let's get to the developing story in kentucky. train derailment spilled sulfur

on wednesday forcing residents to evacuate. this is north of livingston, kentucky. when sulfur burns, can cause irrelevant irritation to the eyes and skin. local authorities determined it is safe for residents to return to their homes. the cause of the derailment is under investigation. new this morning, a reuters report says nvidia has told customers in china it is delaying the launch of the artificial intelligence chip it designed to comply with new u.s. export ex export requirements. it is set to be delayed until next year. the h-20 includes most of the nvidia features for a.i. work and computing power is limited

to comply with the u.s. rules. we will learn more about the ouster and return of opena.i. sam altman. before the board fired altman, several wrote a letter warning about the a.i. discovery that could threaten humanity. this was a key development ahead of the ouster and factored in to the board of grievances. the day before he was fired, he believed major advances were in sight. becky, we have been talking about this for so long. a short soap opera given it happened over the course of 72 hours. now we're hearing there was and is some kind of innovation that

may actually make people unnerved. it appears that the board member may have been part of that discovery as well. it also goes to the question what did the board know and didn't know? people on the board did know what was happening. nonetheless, we talk about the robots taking over the world. clearly somebody saw something and i don't know if that should make you excited or scared. >> that is a scary convention. the board member, and chief scientist at opena.i., concerns and went along with this. that makes sense to why the board wasn't talking before. why did we hear nothing about why they fired him and what led up to that? hopefully this will put any idea of this being reported will put a slowdown on these things. this has been the big question.

andrew, we talked about it earlier in the week. the idea that if you equate this to the manhattan project, the idea of the development of the nuclear bomb and if this is the scariest thing for humanity out there and the last time is governments were working on that. now governments and commercial entities really are the driving forces behind these things. that's why it's probably so important to have some sort of regulatory oversight. that is what congress has been dealing with. it is not just the united states, but china and other countries working on these things, too. that's certainly seems to give pause or people thought to think about this. elon musk says this is the most dangerous thing on the planet. >> to give everybody a little bit of hope, maybe, and i don't know if this will do it. if it you understand what the report is suggesting, it is not they created a large language

model to do everything yet. what it appears is they created a small language model to do a l lot. a lot more than they anticipated. if you were to extrapolate out what they created and what could happen if you input a lot more data into it, based on what they have done historically -- this doesn't mean it will happen in the same way, but you would get pretty close to agi, i don't think it is true a.i., but it is a momentous leap forward. that's what the discovery was on the science side. the question is what do you do about that? how do you commercialize it? >> can i pipe in from people in my life and it reflects how i fe felt about this.

one person said i lost my job and now they got their job back. i'm supposed to be concerned about this. my wife said why is this guy losing his job? i thefeel that way. >> steve, this is like if we were talking about heisenberg. this is somebody who may be creating something that is so great and such amazing technology revolution and on the other side could be potentially super dangerous. >> i get it. for a week now we have been trying to understand what happened and why it matters. maybe this morning you finally found it? i'm not sure. i'm just -- why -- >> it is about the job loss and

the potential for more. >> why create such dysfunction at the board? why are they incapable of dealing with this? it bugs me. >> open a.i. was set up as a 501 c 3. this is an under taking that cannot happen without billions of computing power and other resources poured in. they have been asking companies to do that as a write-off. you will donate this time and mo money and computing power. the idea was it is so potentially dangerous and you have people without monetary interests controlling that. when they made the controlling decision and say we will not do that and clearly the investors stepped up and said this is not good governance for our investment. this is the situation. it has been moving toward that,

but this is the recognition that commercial interests are driving this. >> steve, i think as somebody interested in the economy, to me f this company has the success that a lot of people think it may -- let's go on the upside. would such a profound impact on the economy with jobs and job losses and productivity. you could go down the line of what this technology is. >> i'm excited about the technology. >> the way this story has rolled out. >> this company is so far ahead of every other company in the world. >> the way it was rolled out, it is a company nobody knew and few people were aware of and all of a sudden on the front page for reasons that i contend to at this moment are still unclear. i'll leave it there. >> i just think -- i understand

the confusion. this was not a real well known company outside of circles. i think what they are working on is so important -- >> i agree. i get it. we are still looking for the reason and maybe andrew found it in the small language model that could destroy the world. i don't know. maybe that is the reason sam altman is all of the talk of the town. >> it is the dysfunction of the board. most of this is people issues. they don't like people. they don't trust people. they have an ego. they don't have an ego. boards, as warren buffett says, are like club memberships. go to a golf club. some people like each other. some people don't. stuff happens. when we come back, more on

"squawk box," retailers are gearing up for black friday. we get a live record from west nyack. we the will do that shortly in just a moment. you are watching "squawk" and this is cnbc.

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nyack, new york. >> reporter: good morning, andrew. the best buy opens at 6:00 a.m. now some are shopping in the mall. we are getting final numbers. this is according to salesforce. in the u.s., online spending grew 1% to $7.5 billion. gl gl gl globally up 1%. in europe, those online thanksgiving sales rose 3% over last thanksgiving. that is interesting. here is another look at consumers around the world. shopping online this morning. this is a live look from shopify. this shows activity on sites here that shopify spoupports. so far, in the united states, target is number one in retailers with searches up 100%

year over year. walmart with the searches up 300%. and home depot with searches up 13%. today is one of home depot's busiest online sales days of the year. the cadence of black friday has changed with online means you will not see the mad rush of shoppers and video of the doors opening. today is expected to be the biggest in-store shopping day of the year according to foot traffic tracker. adobe predicts sales will grow online by 5.7% over last year to a little under $10 billion. they say today, by the way, is the best day to buy a tv if you are in the market for one of those. if you combine expected story and digital shopping, 72% of u.s. consumers, almost 131 million people, are expected to shop today in some form.

that is up 69% from last year according to the national retail federation. with the stretch between thanksgiving and cyber monday, the council of shopping centers says americans will spend $130 billion. back to you. >> courtney, we will see a lot more of you throughout the broadcast and the day. for more on all of this, we continue the conversation with retail with our guest. what do you expect? you heard courtney's report of where we are and how strong the consumer is here and then your take on who are the winners or losers? >> it seems it will be a soft holiday season. if the numbers are not overly positive and courtney called out the online numbers and typically in the last 20 years, online is double digit year over year growth. to see the low single digit

numbers, i don't think spells great things for the holiday season. usually what we have also been seeing is because historically those thursday numbers were low because a lot of stores did not think about sending out emails and it should be higher by now. if it is this low, my hunch is cyber monday will be soft. consumers are probably not spending and deals may not be as attractive. >> you know, steve has long talked about this being a massive pull forward from the grand economic construct when you think about what has typically happened during the period. i want to go to what you said about the online piece of it seeming slow. is it possible that part of the business is finally maturing and the outrageous growth rates we saw year over year is ending not as a consumer being weak, but everybody is now online where

they weren't five or six years ago? >> yeah, that is part of it. it is that law of large numbers where at some point you will not be able to continue that double or triple digit year over year. we see that in amazon's numbers. there is that potential. overall, we had ecommerce in the low 20% penetration level. how much bigger it could be? it is already close to 50% in some categories. when you look at an electronic category with books, those are extremely highly penetrated. there is still room for upside in ecommerce. the softer numbers, andrew, point to the consumer spending more in other categories right now. you look at the stocks or revenue of companies like the cruise lines or some of the hotel companies. consumers are spending more on

leisure and less on the physical goods that they really spent a lot on in 2021 and 2022. >> so we went through a period where everybody was experience, experience, experience. then we went into the pandemic period where everybody started to buy a lot of clothing and electronics and home goods online. now you think it is all experience and fashion is out again? we are living in an experience world? do you think it ever shifts back in terms of share wallet? >> for sure. it is all cyclical. once the consumer gets their vacations out of their systems, they spent the money that maybe they have been saving the last few years on that splurge vacation to disney or europe or whe wherever, it will come back. fashion is cyclical. at this point in time, there are

a few brands. lululemon. it is doing pretty well. it is experiencing growth that is outpacing the industry. when you look at overall a number of the other merchants in the space, like gap, they will be challenged. i think that is really, you know, a store of what's trending and what's hot in a particular moment in time and cycles. it will come back. there is no question about that. it always does. denim is coming back. everything in fashion definitely is cyclical and consumer goods. it is the next hot electronic item to drive the sector in another 12-to-24 months. it is challenged at the moment, but it will come back as innovation drives it. >> thank you. that is news you could use. i did not realize denim is back. i have to get myself a jean

jacket. i don't think that is ever coming back. maybe it is. becky, are you wearing denim today? >> not today. i didn't realize denim was out. steve and i were sitting here ranting a little bit. i'm looking at all of the black friday email ads in my inbox. every retailer i ever bought everything from ever is emailing to get me to buy something on black friday. talk about spam. i cannot unsubscribe fast enough. >> i don't know in f you have t same comment. the deals don't seem that great. >> i'm so mad of the influx. >> the deals aren't that great. what do i need this for? >> maybe on the other side of the break, i'll tell you why this is all really good economic news what you are talking about. >> why? >> on the other side of the break. the tease. >> i'm curious. i'll bite. when we come back, we will

talk about consumer trends in the spirits s industry. we will talk to the head of the distillers industry and the looming deadline for tariffs in the whiskey industry. go to break, we will look at the winners and losers in the s&p. nvidia is up 25%. meta is up 183%. on the down side is solar edge technology down 72%. enphase and moderna and illumina are all down. stick around. "squawk box" will be right back. e and the value of businesses large and small. this can mean disruption to supply chains, changing demand for products and shifting regulation. what does this mean for your business, your clients, and your investments?

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welcome back. we will talk about consumer trends right now. specifically in the spirits business. joining us is joe maoco. he is the ceo of michter's. that is the first time that an american whiskey has topped that list. joe, i'll start with that. i have a lot of other things i want to talk about, but that is incredible. an american whiskey topped this list. that's never happened before. >> it really hasn't. we were thrilled. i'm hoping it helps the american whiskey industry. they put a list together of the top 50 most a admired whiskeys the world.

this is the first time an american has been voted as much. the voters from the academy were from over 20 countries. i hope it raises the visibility of the american quality all over the world. the american distillers are friends with the others which make good stuff. >> that is the good news. the bad news is the tariffs are set to resume. you have gotten a two-year brief window reprieve from the massive tariffs going to the eu. let's talk about what happened. when the tariffs first went in, whiskey exports dropped 20%? >> 20%. it was in 2018 because of the fight over aluminum steel. eu retaliated with a 25% tariff on the american whiskey. from 2018 to 2021, american whiskey dropped 20%.

there was an agreement to suspend the tariffs starting in january of 2022. in 2022, that year, america rebounded up 29% in exports to the eu. what is happening now is that it was a suspension. the tariffs weren't eliminated fully. even worse, the tariffs are set to double when they go back into ef effect. it will be a 50% tariff on exports to the eu. u.s. bourbon, the best selling sku, the price in france estimates from 67 euro on the shelf to #88 euro on the shelf. that is a large increase. it seems like people in the industry are hoping and also betting that this suspension

will continue. that remains to be seen. it is a real concern. >> look, it is weird to think the retaliation against aluminum is to go after whiskey, but the whiskey business is big in kentucky and that is where mitch mcconnell is from. at the time, when the tariffs were coming back, he was the senate majority leader. he is the minority leader now. does anyone care in congress that the tariffs don't hit you as hard? it was local politics, but played on the global scale. >> i hope congress cares about it and the government cares about it. i'm sure they do. the american whiskey business is a large industry in general. it is a signature industry for the u.s. bourbon was in 1964 declared america's native spirit. it is symbolic in business. there is just tremendous investment and tremendous tax

benefit on american whiskey. >> joe, i was out with a guy who is ten years my senior and he is a crazier fisherman than i am. we were out in the pouring rain in rhode island fishing. we got back and every part of me was soaked. i changed my clothes and we went to the hull of the boat where he lives. i don't drink before 5:00 in the afternoon if i can help it. >> if i can help it. >> i had to have a drink. he gave me this thing. i'm reading the note i sent him. alan, would you mind sending me the photograph of the bottle of whiskey we were drinking. it is delicious. i can't get it out of my head. it turns out it was your whiskey. i had no idea you were coming on this morning. i don't have a question, becky, but it is really quite

delicious. >> thank you so much. >> i have never done that before in thinking i have to have another bottle of that. that's ridiculous. >> joe, let's ask one quick question before we let you go. we had a wine expert on earlier this week. he said although people are worried about the health of the con consumer, he said what they have seen is wine drinking in restaurants is up significantly. wine drinking at home is far down. obviously, that was covid stuff when people were drinking at home. have you seen the same trend with whiskey? the markup at restaurants is way more. >> it vis really industry. covid slammed the restaurants, bars and hotels for spirits sales. they really come back strong since the pandemic has abated. national restaurant association released stats that through

october for the past eight months, sales in restaurants are up 6.4%. that is healthy. we are seeing a very similar thing in the spirits business. >> joe, thank you. congratulations on the honor of being named best whiskey. >> thank you so much. coming up, we will talk about the fed's next move in the potential end of the rate hike sa cycle and why yields are falling and erasing the october freakout which spooked markets. we'll be right back. this is "squawk box". d with cdw to design modern classroom solutions with preconfigured hp devices making education immersive, accessible and secure. now, when researchers study elephants, kids learn from 9000 miles away.

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. it's the day after thanksgiving. happy thanksgiving. look at futures and see where things stand on friday morning. the dow is up 89. the s&p is looking to open 2.5 points higher. nasdaq looking to up 11 points lower. we will explain why in a moment. it is a short session on wall street. the stock market will close at

1:00 p.m. the bond market closes at 2:00 p.m., steve. thank you. the dip in higher prices will not last as the economy will get worse. that is according to the university of michigan aconsume sentiment report. let's bring in our guests here with us. constance, i want to start with you. we had a person on who said this holiday is going to be soft. from the macro perspective, i look at that and say if our biggest problem is inflation, soft retail sales on black friday, at least, that could cause prices to go down further could be a good thing. am i wrong about that? >> you are not wrong. the sticky part of inflation is not in goods prices. the sticky part is in services prices. that is what the fed is

concerned about and not coming down fast enough for their liking and why they are taking that stance for now. >> are you in the camp right now that sees a slowdown from here? >> we see a slowdown from here. i don't just mean from q3, which, of course, was a blockbuster gdp report, but from 2023, we see slower growth into 2024. the wild card there is what happens with productivity? we saw great productivity numbers this past quarter. we had more cap ex relatively speaking coming from the cycle than from any in the last 50 years. that precedes a better productivity cycle ahead. >> let me get to you, andrew. are you in the recession camp or soft landing camp? what camp are you in? >> we're in the recession camp. that really has two components

to it. one is what you were talking about with constance. the idea we have sticky services inflation. it is hard to see how that inflation comes down without the labor market loosening. it is hard to see that happening without recession. that is one component. the other component is the data and the unemployment rate. it is moving steady higher. jobless claims moving higher. those are the things you tend to see ahead of recession. i think we are getting the early indicators now. >> that's really, really uplifting, andrew. thank you forthat. i want to press on one thing which is everybody has had wrong the idea for a long time that the consumer was going to give it up. there was a mention in the minutes of the last fed meeting that maybe we don't know how much consumers or households have in the way of resources. andrew, i don't know that you had it wrong that economists had

it wrong and how do you know you are so right now that the consumer is at the end of their rope? >> this has been a surprise to everyone with the resiliency of consumption. that is right. we really don't know. we should be humble about projection. we don't know the excess savings. we know people saved above and beyond the pandemic period. we know the u.s. economy is relatively innocsensitive to hir interest rates in the short-term. a lot of the consumers have 30-year fixed interest rates. there will be a lag before this comes in. the one thing i would emphasize is the unemployment rate is low. the labor market has been strong. people have been out spending and these things tend to go in a negative direction together. we have been in a virtual cycle.

>> let's get to constance on the federal reserve. when i look at the probabilities this morning, i have been watching may and june and the tradeoff between the two. it had been the probability of the may hike is 60%. now it is down below 40%. what do you say the odds on bet is now into june? what is your take on the fed cutting interest rates and the tag question of are you sure they are done hiking? >> we are 100% sure they are not done hiking. the base case is they are done hiking. to andrew's point, humility is warranted here. we could see surprise sticky nece inflation. the real constraint is how much money do people have to spend on

the basket of goods they want to buy? here we do see some of that excess savings running down. we expect the unemployment rate to inch up next year. we certainly expect wage increases to continue to moderate. our base is a may timeframe for the first cut. it will depend on the data and it will depend on whether or not people feel that prices are not so excessively high. i think there is a disconnect with main street and wall street. you are looking at the grocery bill and saying it is lower. you are saying it is 25% higher than years ago. people are not -- the average person buying food is not thinking about the prices increasing for three months in a row. they are saying they are higher

than three years ago. >> constance and andrew, thank you for joining us on the day after the holiday. becky. thanks, steve. when we come back, news overnight. china is cutting visa quemts for some travelers. we have the details right after this. giving t rs even more ways to sharpen their skills with tailored education. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. trade brilliantly with schwab.

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welcome back to "squawk box." it is time for the "executive edge." china will allow citizens from five nations and malaysia to enter without a visa. those requirements have been scrapped for spain and netherlands. i don't know how much folks will take a sign from that or not. when we come back, me o

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welcome back to "squawk box," barns and nobles continued to expand in 2024. the company expected to open 50 stores, many smaller in size opening in market where is larger locations closed. this at a time when the average size of retail space falling to a historic low, just under 5,000 square feet. joining us is the ceo of barnes & noble. it's been quite the turn around story thus far. i know you're trying to continue the trend. tell us what's going on in the book business and what these expansion plans look like. there was a fascinating piece recently about the designsof all of these stores no longer

being the same meaning you're going to walk into a store locally and all sorts of different places. and in each place it's going to look almost completely differently. i thought thaft was a unique shift in way retailers had always thought. >> suddenly i think bookstores are best manage and now that we've given complete autonomy to our managers, we are finding generally that our book stores have becoming dramatically better. a few of them not, but that's something that we can deal with. if you allow booksellers to curate their stores for their local communities, you do end one much better book stores. in a post-pandemic, we're enjoying an extraordinary rise in the popularity of books and reading generally. >> what do you think that's about? what's that renaissance abilout. at the same time we're lamenting everybody on their phone and social media and all the time and effort people are putting in

there, plus audio books which is its own business unto itself, what do you think has brought people back to books? >> i think books are just intrinsically wonderful. a physical book is something that gives great pleasure. they're not expensive for the amount of time and entertainment they give you, and you know, we like to think actually just having better book stores is helping as well. independents are opening new ones as well as barnes & noble. >> let me ask you about this whole design issue. if each store looks different, i imagine it used to be -- one of the reasons people did this was both for the consistency, so if you knew you were walking into a barnes & noble, that was a thing, and the other piece would have been i imagine the cost savings if you were being able to buy, you know, certain tables in bulk, certain flooring in bulk, all of that. can you get those savings in the same way or not really? >> no, it's much more expensive to do, but it was always a

forced economy creating identical stores, driving, which meant that they also had to be sort of a particular size, which wasn't actually sort of -- it didn't allow us to be in some of the communities in which we wished to be and didn't create intimate spaces. it is more expensive, but you drive so much higher sales so the benefit to the retail ner pure dollars comes to our side. it also creates fun stores full of people and those are easier to manage and easier to run. everything works better. but it is more expensive. >> is there a hot book? i mean, obviously the britney spears book is the number one book this week followed by bar barbra streisand. is there a hot book you think is going to be your biggest seller at christmastime. >> rebecca yaroff is absolutely roaring. but for us we have a book of the

year which eff very year is our best seller. that's the heaven and earth society, which is just the most wonderful novel, james mcbride, brilliant author, and he's produced a work of genius. oddly enough, actually, amazon named it its book of the year as well. it's not just us, it's everybody, and it's a great, great book, and we're selling masses of it. >> we want to wish you a happy thanksgiving. good luck with the holiday season and we look forward to talking with you again very soon. >> thank you very much. "squawk box" coming back with two big hours ahead. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip?

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good morning. wall street back open for business after a thanksgiving break, looking to cap off what's been a mostly positive week for stocks. it's also retail's big day, black friday 2023 expected to be the busiest in-store traffic day of the year. we will talk about the state of the consumer and get an outlook for the sector. and amazon making history today, the first ever black friday nfl game will stream this afternoon. amazon's head of global sports joins us to talk about their streaming strategy. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. happy thanksgiving, everybody. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and steve liesman in for joe this morning. we've good lot going on. take a look at where u.s. equity future futures expected to open. s&p 500 up about 4 points. the nasdaq down about 12 points. we'll talk about that in just a moment. take a look at treasuries right now, if you leek at the ten-year note, the ten-year at 4.465, the two-year sitting at 4.940. we also have the developing story this morning in gaza, a temporary cease fire began overnight said to be holding. it's set to last for four days. the first group of 13 hostages scheduled to be released around 9:00 a.m. eastern time this morning, we're going to bring you updates as we get them this morning, steve. let's talk about markets ahead of the holiday shortened trading session. joinings now baird investment

strategy analyst ross mayfield. good morning, ross. >> good morning, thanks for having me. >> okay, so let's talk about this rally. does it have legs, or do you think it's a short covering? >> i think it has legs, but it requires a soft landing at this point, and that's a 2024 story. but we're basically priced for a soft landing, multiples gotten extended. certainly a lot of what's happened the last couple of weeks is short covering, seasonality, sentiment had gotten pretty bad there in the fall b fall, but for this to continue, you need the economy and the earnings to follow through. i think that's still a question for 2024. >> when you say earnings to follow through, are you concerned about, for example, earnings keeping with the theme of the morning in the retail sector at this point? >> sure, you have to be. i mean, the consumer has driven this economy for the last 18, 4 months. they've been a workhorse, and there are real questions about the sustainability of that into 2024. we know all the reasons why. i don't know if i'm willing to bet against the american consumer at this point, but i think there's questions about whether this elevated spending

can continue into perpetuity with rates, with still inflation pressures, with other things like student loans, housing costs, we know about all that. i think it's a big question for sure. the updates we'll get from the consumer companies on black friday, on holiday spending are going to be really important. >> all right, so just a bit of advice. you're going to want to tune in about 7:10 this morning where we have retail experts jan niffin coming up he has some choice words for those people betting against the consumer. he said you're all wrong, whatever. let me ask you this question, though. does your outlook being -- thinking that this rally has legs require the federal reserve to ease back on interest rates? >> i believe that it doesn't require it. i think if the fed is cutting in the next three to six months, it's not a bullish signal. i think they're only doing that if there is something wrong with the economy or if we have kind of an event like the banking crisis last march. you know, in a perfect world, i

think the fed would tactically bring rates down because they think the inflation crisis has been beaten. you look at the soft landing of 1995, that was the story. the fed saw no pressures and they ease without needing a recession. if the fed holds rates higher for longer through 2024. i think that's really hard to square with the idea that they see a soft landing as well. i would love if the economy could be very strong with rates above 5%, but i think it's hard to see that, and i think the fed will need to tactically adjust maybe mid year next year in order to really, you know, provide some legs to the soft landing. i think it can happen either way. i do question the sustainability of the economy with interest rates over 5%. >> ross, i want to ask you this question, not the overall question of where are the profits going to be. i want to know where the profits are going to be that you think the street has not recognized those profits are going to be. >> wow, that's a great question. so you know, obviously double-digit expectations for

earnings next year. we know that will come todown. you just look at the outlook for the economy. i don't think you can get double-digit earnings growth and margin expansion in a year like next year where rates are going to be elevated, where there's still inflation pressures in pockets of the economy. i do think that the consumer sector, the tech sector and then cyclicals like industrials and financials still have some legs. if we're going to get a soft landing. the cyclical sectors are going to be the ones that lead the way. so i think, you know, the sentiment has gotten pretty negative in a space like energy, in a space like financials, even industrials to an extent. i think there's some profitability and some structural tail winds there that will continue to play out in 2024. so i think if there's a soft landing, the cyclicals are probably the place to be because they've been beaten up a little bit more and because tech and consumer has been in focus so much. >> small caps also been pretty beaten up. do you see upside there? >> probably near term, i think

this rally can continue. if higher for longer is the theme. i want to shift towards more of a quality tilt, and i'm a little skeptical of the continued rally in small caps. we know the pressure there from rates. we know the pressure from inflation. you can read the small business surveys and hear all about it. i'm skeptical that small caps have the legs to sustain, even if we get a soft landing mild recession type scenario next year, i just think there's too many pressures and i would want to skew quality and up the cap scale to kind of protect my neck a little bit. >> right, so the cap scale's what's really interesting next year. there's going to be another wave of companies that refinance during the pandemic that now are going to have to go and get new debt, and they may not make it, right? so there's going to be winners and losers and a lot of stark contrast next year. >> our partners at strategas have basically e givelated rates this high to holding your breath under water.

you can do it for a time, but every day that passes, a new consumer takes out a 7.5% mortgage and gives up their 3. a new company has to refinance at higher rate. the u.s. government the same deal. every day that rates are in restrictive territory, you feel that pressure more and more. if the fed doesn't tactically move rates lower, those pressures continue to weigh. you know, the big story so far has been this strength in spite of higher rates, but again, every day there's refinancing. there's new debt taken out, and it starts to weigh. >> one of my themes for next year is that david facebober is going to be busy with m&a that can be sparked by refinancing of debt. that's not necessarily good for the hshareholders. it's going to be something that helps out more of the debt holders. let's leave it there. thank you very much. >> thank you. when we come back, the latest cyber monday survey is predicting a 13% increase in consumer spending this year over

last year. we're going to head to the p palisades mall. and then we'll hit the slopes of the ceo of killington, one of the premier ski resorts for an update on the ski season. what's happening right now. is trehe even snow at these places yet? we'll be right back. the pulmonary embolism happened. but because i have 23andme, i was aware of that gene. that saved my life.

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welcome back, everybody. more than 72% of americans plan to shop today in store, online, or both. cnbc retail reporter courtney reagan joins us right now from the palisades center mall in new york. and court, i don't know what kind of crowds you've seen there. i was kind of shocked when i came into work this morning. it was not heavy traffic. didn't see much of anything, including a mall i drove by on the way. >> that's interesting. i will say right now the parking lot is filling up because this mall is just opening, though the best buy behind me did open at 6:00. we saw some people sort of waiting in line truly again just as the doors were opening. we did see some of that. they're planning their purchases this morning for sure. capitalify is giving us new search data showing more consumers are searching for clothing by 192%. still the top category. phones numbers 2, more than

650%. computers up at number 3. almost a 700 % rise there. kitchen coming in at four, those searches are down about 25%. salesforce says that final online thanksgiving retail sales hit $7.5 billion in the united states. by their tracking, that's just 1% more than last year. global sales did hit almost 32 billion, also up 1% from last thanksgiving. europe, though, interesting enough saw thanksgiving day online sales grow 3%. they may not celebrate turkey day, but they certainly were shopping. shopify says that retail websites are seeing an average cart price of $119 and change on thanksgiving day with clothing, personal care, and jewelry among the top categories there too. adobe predicts online sales will grow 5.7% today, compared to last black friday to hit just below $10 billion, and still, why the cadence of black friday has changed as we talked about with deals being offered earlier

and also online, today is still expected to be the biggest in-store shopping day of the year, according to sensormatic which does track foot traffic. 72% of u.s. consumers -- that's 131 million americans -- are expected to shop today in some form. that's up 69% from last year according to the national retail federation. it may not be the crowds that we've seen before, but relatively still a busy day compared to an average day for most retailers here in the united states. becky. >> courtney, isn't black friday just the opening bid, right? sometimes we have soft black fridays, better christmas seasons, and this is just like, okay, here's what i got at today's price. if you don't like it, come back tomorrow, it will be cheaper. >> reporter: yes, absolutely. even talking to family and friends over thanksgiving asking me about good deals and sort of talking to people about their strategies, and i have some folks that say, look, i don't ever shop on black friday

because i know if i wait long enough the prices will drop further. this year you might be safe to do that potentially, it's hard to say about the prices, but inventory levels are at least good, and steve, it is interesting because the walmart cfo told me that even early on he's seeing shoppers respond to these promotional sales evens. so perhaps some of those early days in october, these preview days. but then see them drop off before and afterwards. consumers really are still being mindful of these big discount days, but it's probably going to be a choppy season. and just because today sort of gives us one trend, does not necessarily mean that we can pull that trend out to be the same for the entire season. >> hey, court, thank you. we will be checking in with you obviously throughout date too. right now i want to bring in january niffin, the ceo of jay rogers niffin wwe. there are so many questions about the consumer, so many concerns about inflationary

figures starting to cut, s especially when you're at the grocery store. you think overall it's going to be a decent holiday season, why is that? >> i think the consumer is hanging in there better than we ever would have thought. given all that we've done to stop them, given the inflation. i think they're hanging in for a couple of reasons. the main reason is the jobs report you see every time. we're not having high unemployment. we've got low jobs claims. we've got low continuing claims, and we've got rising wages and when we've got that, the consumer spends. this year even more so because now they're really irritated that they've been told you have to stay home. you can't go anywhere. you're going to tdie, and finaly we got to the point where we're out there trying to buy stuff and we've just said we're going to buy it whether you like it or not, and until we stop them by not giving them higher wages or jobs, they're going to keep spending. so i think deloitte's pretty

optimistic here. the most optimistic forecaster out there. i like what they're saying better than i like people who are saying this is going to be a disaster. remember something else. we don't have to have a big black friday this year. we've got 31 shopping days between now and christmas. that's almost as long as you can ever have. next year we're only going to have 26 between thanksgiving and christmas, and we'll really be worried about what happens on the black friday weekend. i still think we're going to have a good black friday weekend. the customer's coming out now for events. they spent like crazy for halloween. i think they're going to be really stronger on black friday than people think, but it will not be the biggest shopping day of the year. it will be the biggest foot traffic day of the year. the biggest shopping day will still be the saturday in front of christmas, just like it was last year. >> let's walk through the idea of discounts. we have seen some more discounts this year than we've gotten used

to. during the pandemic when there was a good shortage, the retailers couldn't get enough inventory for us to sell. they've been much better about managing inventory. we are seeing more sales than we've seen the last few years. what does that mean for profitability at these companies? >> depends on your definition of the last few years. we're seeing promotions about like they were in 2019 when things were the last time normal. they haven't been normal since then. so yes, we're seeing promotions, but we're really well-controlled on inventory. you saw all those reports from the third quarter. weak top lines, strong bottom lines. why is that? because there is no more inflation in goods, and it's hard to push that through to the consumer now that there's no inflation out there in the actual underlying product. so what's happening is we're not seeing strong top lines b, but we're seeing gross margins helped by the shipping costs and all the things out of control are coming in really, really good. i think that's what we'll see

again this quarter. we will see good bottom line because i don't think we're going to see crazy promotions. we just don't have enough inventory out there to make that happen. >> what about the credit story? we've seen some -- i don't know quite how to put it into context. some rise in delinquency rates, and some people have been calling those numbers apoca apocalyptic. to me they look like they're getting back to prior delinquency rats. people are more reluctant to take them. how does the credit story affect the potential spending story? >> that's my biggest concern because once they can't get the ability to spend, of course they won't spend or once they're terrified they can't pay it back, they won't spend. we're not there yet, but when it cracks, that's where it will crack. i don't think that's going to happen for holiday because for holiday people will take on debt they can't afford as much as they could. they'll do it when they wouldn't

do it other times of the year. i think they're in the mood of spending for this holiday season. every airline seat is full, every cruise ship is booked. everything out there that anybody wants to do, they just said i'm going to go do it. we may see that catch up with us in 2024, if they can't carry the debt load. so far they're not so indebted that they can't pay it back. at least they don't think they are. i think that's true as long as they continue to have the kind of jobs they've had. the question is will we see jobs crack? if that happens and they're indebted, they'll be terrified and quit spending. >> why don't you run us through winners and losers, who do you think is at the best maybe three names and three potential places where you might miss out! i think you're going to be surprised at what a good season dick's has. we don't really expect sporting goods right now to be that good. they were really good during the pandemic, they've slowed down some. but on the other hand, they're really well-prepared for outdoor

gear and the customer really is a favorite of outdoor gear at the moment. i think they'll do well. i think you'll see apparel do better than what you're hearing other people talk about. i think we're seeing a little bit of a drift back into goods. when that happens and as andrew was saying a while ago, i think you're going to see some good news in western wear. do i think boot barn is going to do well? i do. do i think tractor supply is going to do well? i do. i also think you're going to see strength that's surprising at macy's andkohl's. versus what people are expecting, they're doing a much better job both in controlling their business and with their inventories, and the consumer is drifting back a little bit especially in the cosmetics, they're really strong there and in treatments, and i think you're going to see a little better interest in apparel than the world is telling you. >> jan, thank you, always appreciate your time. >> thank you. okay. coming up on the other side of this, we're going to talk about inflation.

will inflation wipe out this year's ski season? that is one of the big questions. we're going to hear from the ceo of killington after the break. take a look at futures ahead of this holiday shortened trading session. right now things looking up. dow up about 95 points. s&p 500 looking about 5 points higher. nasdaq down about 10 points. squawk coming right back. time now for today's aflac trivia question. during the five-day period between thanksgiving and cyber monday, how many americans shopped in store or online last ta r according to the national reil federation? the answer when "squawk box" returns. i think the duck goes the distance! alright, you about ready to get out? what's this? a hospital bill?! for a thousand bucks?! gaaaap! did this goat just say 'gap'? he's talking about expenses health insurance doesn't cover. but with aflac, you can get money to help close that gap. aflac, huh? -aflac! -ahhhh! okay! oh! duck - 1, goat - 0. get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at aflac.com

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and now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. during the five-day period between thanksgiving and cyber monday, how many americans shop in-store or online last year according to the national retail federation? the answer 197 million. welcome back to "squawk box," it is thanksgiving weekend, which is the official kickoff to the holiday travel season. and for many this time of year also marks the start of ski seas season. we want to bring in the killington's resort president and general manager. for the seventh year killington

is going to host the world cup skiing this weekend airing on nbc and peacock. we welcome you. you've got some snow behind you. i was actually a little bit worried that maybe there wasn't going to be a lot of snow. i know you guys have been making a bunch of it. tell us how the season you think is looking. how much snow do you have? >> so far we've probably got a little over a foot of natural snow. this time of year it's mostly man made snow. we have the world's largest snow making system so we can make a lot of snow very quickly. you know, you can see behind me is the world cup venue for the women's world cup this weekend, and we're excited to have the best women racers in the world here competing. it's going to be a great event. >> what is your sense -- we were talking about inflation just in the last segment. we've also talked about how customers have been spending money. you know, during the pandemic, there was sort of an all-out blitz to go skiing since it was at outdoor sport, and then of course after the pandemic in a sort of yolo world, people were

deciding they were going to ski and spend a lot of money doing that. do you sense any shift there? >> we're still seeing a very resilient consumer. so for us demand has been really strong. season pass sales are strong, and so are lodging bookings. we're seeing people still want to spend money on experiences, and that bodes really well for our business. >> we've talked about it before. the epic pass the competition with the icon pass, how those passes have changed the business. you've seen a number of mountains across the country actually try to scale back actually a little bit because in some cases they thought their mountain was getting overrun with folks using these passes. what's your sense of what the pass game looks like in the future. obviously, you know, you have these mountains, and the more people you can get on them then the more other things you can sell them. then there was an experience issue that i think has become a real meaningful one that people have been talking about. >> yeah, i think the positives

of those passes are that the ski business last year had a record number of skier visits. that's really great for the industry. people really want to enjoy our sport. that's a positive, and i think we all need to make sure we're not overcrowding the resorts. i think at killington specifically, we're an icon partner, and that's worked really well for us. you know, we work hard to spread people out around the mountain and, you know, we have over 29 lifts and over 200 trails. so we're really well-positioned to spread people out, and we've also been investing on the mountain putting in tunnels and bridges and other investments to really make sure people have a great experience and really kind of move them around the mountainment smountain so i think that for us has been a competitive advantage. >> just in terms of running a mountain and where the real money is, is it in the ticket or is it really in the food and beverage, the lessons and everything else? >> the majority is still in the

ticket and the season pass. that is still where most of the money is. you know, second to that is probably food and beverage, and then you start going down into retail and ski school and rental and that type of stamp. but most of it is still on the ticket side. >> is that true of all mountains, or is that specific -- is that east coast versus west coast? you know, if you were in colorado, would that be the same situation? >> it's pretty consistent. it's pretty consistent. i mean, there's some different fluct fluctuations, some resorts have lodging, some don't have lodging. some have more food and beverage presence on the mountain. sometimes you're just eating in town. so that part is similar, but i think at the end of the day, the ticket business, you know, making money on ticket revenue and season passes is still the largest revenue share. >> and what is your biggest cost? >> oh, our biggest cost is always labor. we have close to 1,800 employees and so that's a substantial cost, and you know, i think

during covid it was definitely challenging to find staff, but i think, you know, we've done a really great job taking care of our team and investing in employee housing. so this year we're almost fully staffed. we're doing really well from that standpoint. >> mike, we're going to leave it there. we look forward to seeing you on the slopes. good luck this weekend. thank you. >> thanks, come visit us. >> we will, trust us. trust me on that. that's going to happen. becky. andrew, thanks, still to come this morning, the latest numbers from the mortgage bankers association showing mortgage applications jumped by 3% last week to a six-week high. that comes as mortgage rates edged lower, although they're still more than double where they were two years ago. we're going to talk housing and where rates could be headed in 2024 right after this break. and then are you ready for some friday afternoon football? the new york jets taking on the miami dolphins this afternoon on amazon's prime streaming

service. the head of amazon sports will join us to talk about the company's strategy. "squawk box" will be right back.

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sales fell 4.1% in the month of october. our next guest says it's a strange market of record high home prices. deep slumping home sales, the national association of realtor's chief economist. lawrence, try to square this for us. you have rising prices and declining sales. it tells me that maybe the market isn't clearing. >> yes, so we have a situation where multiple offers are still happening, but it's not being fully realized because of the lack of supply. so overall home sales are running essentially the lowest in decades, yet home prices due to the lack of supply are being pushed up higher and higher and setting a new high. we set a new high for the month of october in recent data so very strange market condition. >> and is this people keeping their homes off of the market in part because, what, they don't

want to lose the great mortgage they're sitting on? >> people refinance their mortgages into 3%, 4%, and if they were to either trade up or trade down, they're looking at much higher mortgage rate conditions, and that's why we have this lack of supply, and at the same time, we have to remember back in 2019, pre-covid conditions, we had 4 million housing unit shortage due to decade of under production by the homebuilders in relation to the population growth, so all this combination is leading to this strange condition where we have lack of buyers from higher interest rate, yet people do not give up their homes or low interest rates or lack of supply. >> lawrence, are you sitting on a solution that you can tell us. why can't you take it with you. by that i mean my mortgage or at least sell my house with my 3% mortgage.

>> well, you know, some of the mortgages, i think those should be considered. it would come with additional costs for the borrower just because from the lender perspective it creates a little more of an uncertainty into the marketplace. there will be additional costs into the system, but the way to address the solution is first, i think the fed first needs to recognize that inflation is clearly moving in a downward direction. i know that communication has been trying to hold firm, but with the economy showing some signs of weakness. certainly we are seeing in commercial real estate, which impacts the community banks, we don't want to have another case of silicon valley bank, community bank failures. so i think the fed clearly needs to consider pivoting, and if that happens what's going to happen, we've got to see more sellers come onto the market. maybe it's not the 3 and 4%, but if the mortgage rate is 6%. >> i want to ask you that because people benefitted when

they waited, when mortgages -- when the ten-year got to 5 and mortgages got to 8, markets shut down now, it's back a little bit. the mortgage applications did tick up in the latest report. if i wait more, will i do a little better? and i'm looking at -- one thing i've looked at for a while here, which is the spread of the 30-year over the 10, it's not just high, but it's expensive relative to the ten-year. so it seems that there's two ways that mortgages in the next six months or year could come down. way number one is that yields fall in general. way nurl two is the relative spread of the ten-year to the 30-year mortgages getting narrower. is that ans expectation you have? >> yes, with a better certainty about the monetary policy direction, i believe that spread will begin to narrow. you know, this morning fed --

the ten-year treasury at 4.5 under normal spread, mortgage rates -- >> 6.5. >> -- will be at 6.5 or lower. that will clearly help, and let's remember for consumers, mortgage rate have fallen for the fourth straight week already. so the mortgage market has already pivoted, even though the federal reserve has not. >> i'm glad you brought that up. 2 points is about the average, right, of the spread of the 30-year to the 10. it's not entirely priced off the 10. there's all kinds of other stuff going on. there's scope here for things to get better next year, maybe not immediately here lawrence. >> i think the mortgage rate will be in the 6% range next year that. will certainly make it a market with more buyers and more sellers. >> that will be good news to a lot of folks. lawrence, thanks for joining us this morning. >> thank you. still to come this morning, some stocks to watch ahead of the opening bell, and then amazon's global head of sports is going to join us to talk about the streaming services

foray into football and much more. this game that's being played today, first time a black friday game is being played since 1962. we'll tell you why. also, in the next hour, a firm cofounder and ceo max y w,hin will talk about buy no palater, that strategy and what he's seeing fromconsumers who are using the service. we'll be right back. in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. that rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip?

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♪ we got a lot more coming up right here on squaw"squawk box." the business of streaming and sports, amazon's global head of sports is going to join us after the break as we get ready for a big day, prime day, first black friday, nfl game on amazon. "squawk box" returns after this.

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yep, $1000. so switch to business internet from the company with the largest fastest reliable network and that powers more businesses than anyone else. learn how you can get $1000 back for your business today. comcast business. powering possibilities. welcome back to "squawk box." i want to get straight over to kristina partsinevelos. good morning, happy thanksgiving. >> happy thanksgiving to you as well. let's talk about nvidia shares. they're dropping on thin volumes. reuters reporting delays in nvidia's work around chips that were meant for china because of the u.s. export controls. this was mentioned in my reporting on wednesday as well as the earnings call on tuesday, the cfo saying, quote, these products, they may become available in the next coulming months. we don't expect their

contribution to be material or meaningful. there's a fight who will buy u.s. firm vista outdoor. vista announced that csg would merge with vista in an all cash deal valued at $2 billion. now colt has made an unsolicited offer to acquire vista. vista's board said they haven't made a decision yet. and it's black friday, i'm sure you all know, i'm not sure if anybody's done any shopping yet, but is an important time for many shoppers because of more budget conscious habits. that's helping some names, walmart up a quarter of a percent. target barely flat to the negative and dick's sporting goods unchanged. becky. thank you so much. amazon kicking off its first black friday nfl game. joining us with more on sports streaming and viewership is jay marine, the vice president at amazon and global head of sports. this isn't just your first black friday game. it's the nfl's first black

friday game since 1962 back when it was patriots, bills playing. you convinced the nfl to do this. you are paying them $100 million to do it. why is it worth it to you to have a black friday game? >> well, this is a big event for us. i think the chance to make really a brand new nfl tradition and on a day when so many people are home already with family and friends and their kids are home, and for us what better day than black friday where it's always been a huge shopping day for amazon. so really this was actually a partnership where the nfl and us together came up with this as a perfect way to build something new and a new nfl tradition, and we're super excited about it. >> part of that is because you guys didn't get a thanksgiving day game. that is simply cvs, fox, nbc, they're going to be the ones who control those gaemes. we've had a lot of people who have come in and talked about

what this means for amazon, whether it's the advertisers, whether it's something you can do for building prime, whether it's something you're doing for building the shopping experience. should we think of this as being amazon is going to get people to shop online or this is an experience to build prime, kind of like when fox came in and agreed to pay lot more money over cvs to steal the rights to games. it made more sense for fox to be paying money at that time. >> everything starts with prime. we sit around, how can we make prime better, how can we add more value to prime. we want prime to be the best membership program in the world. when i say best, we give more value, it's so valuable to our members, and we always want to charge less than the value we're giving. >> prime streaming or prime everything? >> prime overall, and prime video is a big piece of that. the reason we did the nfl deal is because sports are valuable to people, and they're

nonsubstitutable, and their large fan bases that come in and they're seeing that. this year on thursday night football, we're up 26%, our viewership, average of 12.3 million viewers. and today to get back to black friday, really it was about how could we offer something to our customer base that's new and different and big, and so we're making today a whole event, all of amazon has come across to support this event. for example, our music team is going to have an exclusive garth brooks concert right after the show, throughout the game we're going to be dropping exclusive deals just for our viewers. so that will be in pregame, which starts at 1:30. the game kicks off at 1:00. then we'll be dropping exclusive deals each quarter of the game. it's really a way just to reward amazon customers -- >> you don't have to be an amazon prime member to watch this. >> no, this is the first -- because it was the first year we decided to do something especially and give back.

you don't even have to have prime. we invite any amazon customer, come in and stream, check out our broadcast, what we're doing with thursday night football, and today on black friday, and we hope everyone loves it. >> can you take us behind the scenes a little bit for how a d like this comes together? is it a coincidence that the new york jets from a major market are on this day? or is it they just gave you the game and you had to buy the game they gave you? >> yeah, it's -- first of all, the nfl owns their scheduling, and there's lots of pieces when it comes to scheduling, as you can imagine. it's very complex. aws actually helps the nfl with some of that. >> really? >> yeah, yeah. >> it is a huge my tatrix. >> i want that algorithm for my life. >> calendar? >> exactly. if you can schedule the nfl, you can schedule me. >> right, exactly. so that's part of it. the nfl has to balance a lot of things, but yes, we've talked to them early on about this is a big game. what -- you know, what type of

teams would make sense. and yes, we had a passion for it to be in new york for this first day because there's nothing better than kicking off the holidays in new york city. so -- and it's a divisional matchup, so we're super excited. >> so what does success look like in terms of viewership? >> not going to speculate on viewership. it is a new window so we'll have to see. at the same time people are home, their kids are home, families, so we're open mtimist. people have said, you're just trying to get people to shop more. ultimately, it is a success for us if amazon customers come in, sit on their couch and they're watching and getting great deals while they're watching and they say, hey, i can't wait for amazon to do that every year, that will be a success. >> you pointed out viewership is up 26%?

>> 26%. >> is that all or "thursday night football"? >> "thursday night football". >> also you got a boost from taylor swift in all the viewings, because the highest streaming you had was the game she showed up for the game at kansas city and it was a surprise she showed up for that. how much of the viewership do you think is better stuff happening and how much is it new fanstuning in because the swifties are watching the game. >> my wife has helped the viewership. she is suddenly a big fan. she is following the kelce podcast, is addicted to it. look, it is a great story line and a great way to baroaden the nfl base. i'm not sure how to mr.ureasure

viewership. >> andrew. >> a.j., how many new customers do you have on just the prime video piece but also how it relates to the larger prime membership, how you think customer -- meaning do you say to yourself, maybe i will accept marginally higher prices on amazon for my day-to-day but as part of that i'm also getting this other thing and i really appreciate that? i ask because lease lots -- because there's lots of questions about pricing online. >> i think you are talking about broader sports and the impact overall. obviously the retail business we always try to offer the best pricing and the best deals across the board. that's always been true. but prime video, the basis of prime video and the sports investment is to make prime more valuable, to make it really be a membership that you can't live without, you don't want to live without, and to give more value

than we're checking for. so we've been in sports for a while, we started in europe with the premier league as well as champions league and now with nfl here. what you'll see us doing is we're really focused on the largest tier one sports because we want to focus on things that can really move the needle. they have to matter enough and they have to be big enough to do so. >> right. >> and, jay, the second related question i had was actually going to be about the nba if you have a question. >> yeah. >> there's a big expectation about the nba and where amazon is going to live in theris and what's going to happen to the linear folks trying to compete for the nba, and whether the economics you have are different because they're nontraditional economics relative to somebody, you know, like a warner brothers discovery, you know, which has some of that, wants that and wants to keep it but they can't make money the same way you can.

so how the wholly e world shoul think about that. >> first of all, the nba is a fantastic thing. it is a global sport, there's a young fan base so a lot of things that are attractive about the nba. and not just to us, as you say, but attractive for a lot of broadcasters. and so we're looking at that very hard. we would love to find a way to partner with the nba if it can work, you know, but the economics have to work for us, have to work for the nba. as you said, our business model is different. so it is very hard. you know, we look at a lot of sports rights but we try to stay very disciplined because we don't have a linear schedule or shelf space we have to fill so we can be selective and focus on the parts we want and we don't need it all. our business model is different.

someone might pay more for us in a certain rights package. it doesn't mean they overpaid. everyone has different business models and i have to evaluate based on the economics. >> but you guys have deeper pockets and more cash to put to work on this. first of all, the idea it november requiring people to be prime members, was that your idea or requirement with the nfl? >> it was our idea. the nfl liked it but it was to broaden the reach and make it accessible to as many as possible. >> you said for this year. >> we haven't decided. >> is this something you get every year or do you have to bid again? >> this is first year. we did a one-year deal and our expectation with the nfl is this will become an annual tradition. >> for somebody. >> can you talk about the value proposition. how much does an nfl game cost you versus original programming?

is it a better deal or is it treeper, more expensive than to put out, i am saying a new program, but are you weighing it against each other? >> we are looking at all of that. live s live sports are very expensive. they bring in a large fan base, non-substituteable. they're unique because everyone is coming at once and everything is done. so movies and tv have a different benefit, which is you have that forever and people are coming back to watch those shows and watch those movies. but it is more of a portfolio, right? you don't know exactly which movies and tv shows are going to hit, so we look at it all combined. i think it is more powerful when you have both. >> jay, i want to thank you very much for coming in. these are really sbresing dynamics, jess how you guys are figuring this out. we appreciate you being here

today. >> thank you so much. encourage everyone to tune in today. again, you don't even need prime. it will be a fun day and hopefully a great football game as well. >> thanks, jay. thanks. >> when we come back, affirm's ceo max levchin joins us to talk about the season. he will talk about the business model and what he is seeing there, and other consumer trends. the futures are indicated up. dow futures at least up by 85 points, s&p 500 by 4. the nasdaq down by 12 points now. "squawk box" will be right back. the pulmonary embolism happened. but because i have 23andme, i was aware of that gene. that saved my life. with gold bond... you can age on your own terms. retinol overnight means... the smoothing benefits of retinol. are now for your whole body.

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good morning. futures showing a mixed picture on this post-thanksgiving trading day. the nasdaq in the red, sharing with the magnificent seven. they're sliding. we're going to explain. ready, set, shop. going to the mall, deals online or your social media app. will consumers open their wallet this holiday season? that's just ahead. after the turkey, pumpkin pie, indigestion and heartburn, some may be looking for a

lifestyle change. we will check out the names to watch in the weight loss sector as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sore skin and steve liesman. joe is off today. just moments ago check out footage. the doors open at the mall of america just outside minneapolis. we will have more on the holiday shopping season kickoff in a few minutes but it is indicative of the changes, guys, we have seen in black friday shopping, thanksgiving day shopping. a lot of retailers closed on thanksgiving saying they want to give their workers a break. it is first of any pictures we've seen of door busters. you don't have that anymore. it used to be walmart. it used to be macy's, all kind

of stores, best buy, that would open up early in the morning and you would have crowds and crowds outside. not the case anymore. i think it is indicative of the online shopping that takes place and the idea that black friday sales have been extended more much of the month of november. we will continue to monitor it and bring it more as we see it. but we want to check out the day's market action. we have a shornted day of trading. trading stops at 1:00. the dow futures are up by 78 points ahead of that. the nad dak is down by about 17. if you are watching the treasury market you will see the 10-year is below 4.47. you are still talking around 76 dollars a barrel for wti, coming back down by 59 krends. we were higher earlier this morning, but 76.51. >> here are the top business stories we are following this morning. a temporary cease-fire in the

ha israel-hamas war. israel is set to release 39 prisoners today. shares are under pressure for nvidia. the company has told customers it is delaying the launch of a new artificial intelligence chip it designed to comply with u.s. export compliance. the launch of the chip is said to be delayed until the first quarter of next year. they expected to launch the new chip for the chinese market this month. meantime, i want to talk markets right now. zachary hill, head of portfolio management add horizon investments is with us. happy thanksgiving to us. looking up by the most part today except for the nvidia news, but how are you setting yourself up between now and christmas? will there be a christmas rally?

>> happy thanksgiving. great to be with you today. we think that the rally we have seen can continue. we think it will be a catch-up trade. we have seen real kind of top-heavy markets, you know, a lot of people talked about this, the magnificent seven and the performance of the nasdaq, and not, you know, the broad market is not really participated in that rally. so we think we could see some catch-up trade into year-end. small caps remains our favorite vehicle for playing that. >> so small caps, not large caps. the magnificent seven are still magnificent or not so much? >> oh, yeah, long term they are magnificent, although the history of the acronyms is companies tend to come and go. i would expect the magnificent seven of next year to look different than the one we've seen so far this year. broadly speaking tech and companies geared to the changes that we're seeing in a.i. and we will continue to see in the economy, that's where we want to be. but, you know, just kind of acknowledging what we've seen so far this year, the performance

spreads we've seen and the likelihood investors will rebalance in a time where there's not a lot of liquidity or people paying attention, we think it is a good opportunity and a good setup for the catch-up trade to the year-end. >> talking about rebalancing, where do you land on bonds? we've had a sort of grand debate on the program in the past month about where bonds should live in a portfolio these days, whether it should live in a portfolio at all right now? >> yeah, i mean i think that's been kind of the biggest thing that shocked investors over the last few years. as we sit here today core bonds in the u.s. might have their third consecutive negative return year. we've never seen that on record. so versus expectations, i think that's something that's been really challenging for investors. you know, the way that we're thinking about bonds is certainly they're more attractive than they have been and cash is more attractive than it has been. so kind of weighing the two

together, it is a marginal increase in the attractiveness, but over the long term investors will be positioned in order to meet their goals. like you need to have more than just the 5% you can currently get in cash or, you know, the 4.5% you can get in treasuries right now. you need to have more than that for a long-term portfolio to power that. so marginally more attractive but it hasn't been a sea change in our view. >> since it is black friday, do you like the retailers? do you like what the consumer is doing these days? >> yeah, i mean, look, consumer activity has been something that's been kind of a key underpinning of our more positive call on the economy for sometime now. we do think we are going to continue to see that. obviously, you know, there was some kif cdifficult guidance frm the last couple of weeks from the retailers. have our view, instead of looking at the corridor and

bringing things to a higher level, you have a strong labor market. everybody that wants a job can get a job. wages are more than keeping up with inflation now and, oh, by the way, gas prices which people were very scared about, especially when crude oil was above $90 a barrel, are coming down materially. that's a windfall for consumers in the medium term. we think the set-upend of the year trend, has seen guidance not as strong as the market expected. >> i want to wish happy thanksgiving. have a great weekend. >> happy thanksgiving to you too. >> thank you. becky. ready, set, shop. we have smalls and shopping centers opening across the country right now, but more and more consumers are shopping and being targeted with ads on their social media apps or in our e-mail boxes. enough already. we will have more of that next. will it be an apple holiday

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welcome back to "squawk

box." this black friday more people are doing their shopping not just online but on social apps. julia bore orstin joins us to bk it down. >> good morning, andrew. more americans are turning to social media to do holiday shopping this year. nearly half of gen-z say they plan to shop on platforms like tiktok or instagram according to a shopify gallup poll. this holiday season is a test of the power of a.i. to create and target ads and also have amazon. amazon has partnered with pintrest, meta and snap so shoppers can buy directly from amazon ads within the apps by logging into amazon prime. that's designed to drive -- or it could drive more amazon spending while designed to keep customers engaged on the platform. meta is offering advertisers new a.i. tools to optimize ad buying and targeting. it is testing its generative

a.i. tools to figure out how to roll them out more broadly in the future. but tiktok is taking a different approach. instead of partnering with amazon like the others it launched a tiktok shop with 200,000 purchases. the social media advertising is projected to drive ten times more online shopping business this holiday season that traditional marketing according to insider intelligence, and a.i. is helping here personal customer service and marketing promotions powered by a.i. are projected to buy nearly $200 billion in spending. andrew. >> i didn't realize this. do social media sites have your credit card already or does the credit card go to each -- >> not unless you have given it to them. >> no, i know. is it --

>> you don't have to give -- >> go ahead. >> so for tiktok, they launched tiktok shop earlier this year. with tiktok's idea you would give your credit card and sort of transact directly through tiktok. the tiktok shop is managing the m merchants, et cetera. the interesting thing here about amazon is so many have given their credit card information to amazon and have their log-in information with amazon prime. this started with pintrest in april. pintrest made a big deal to enable amazon ads to be shopable which means you click, log in to make a purchase on pintrest. it is a win, win for pintrest. we saw announcements from meta and snap they're doing the same thing. you just have to log into amazon prime or if you have an amazon prime app link it when the other social shopping apps.

the idea is they're taking away the friction, making it easier to buy things. if they're making it easier to buy from an amazon ad, you can expect they're expecting to see an increase in amazon advertising on their platforms. >> julia boorstin, people are watching football game in town and they will be buying stuff at the same time. >> exactly. >> happy thanksgiving. back to you, becky. thank you. we talked about how retailers are flooding e-mail inboxes with ads for deals. we teased after that that you thought there are ways it could be good for the economy. >> i want it. the biggest problem for the economy everybody believes is inflation. lower prices are good for the economy. it is a roll back. a challenge for the companies. some companies will make money in a more competitive environment, but having a

competitive environment, bringing down prices. i disagreed with one of our economists that i didn't get a chance to say earlier. said, good add proond products the problem. services are the problem. you can still have goods that go down 1%, 2%. jan jan wrote me and said don't make conclusions about the -- you and i have been doing this for -- do you want to admit it? >> no. >> i don't either. decades. liesman's economic rule number 101, don't he is somebody is not going to buy until you know the price they're not going to buy it at. there's a negotiation going on. it is like a bridge game. black friday and the deals black friday, it is the opening bid. does stuff move? no? we'll lower prices more. it could be a macro economic development to see the prices come down.

>> it could be good for the economy because this is when i was covering retail and you were covering the economy, it may be great for the economy but not for retailers because if they're discounting too heavily it is not great news. it means they won't have profitability on the numbers that come in. the consumer will be spending. >> i don't envy the retailer their job. wait a second i have to order by september. >> no, no, by july it is already in. >> i have to figure out in july what is going to happen. there may be too much inventory, not enough inventory. >> i think this time around they will be better on inventory. >> that's limits how much the price is going to fall. >> and as jen pointed out, 31 days in the shopping season this time around. >> do you know what i read in "politico", that franklin dell know roosevelt moved thanksgiving to create more time for people to shop between thanksgiving and christmas.

>> really? >> it used to be the last thursday and now it is the ekd. he moved it during the depression in order to make time to buy. republicans opposed it and not every state moved it initially. >> there's a litany of history lessons we are getting. today is the first black friday game played since 1962 with the bills and patriots. that was not the nfl, it was the afl. >> i forgive you that mistake. >> minor correction in the history lesson. >> i hope i was right with sourcing "politico" on that, but it was kind of interesting. i will look it up. joining us to look at some of the top tech gadgets is joanna stern, "wall street journal" senior technology column gist and a cnbc contributor. you have done a great thing

putting together the purchases people should be getting. i would love to start with the gifts under $50 because one was interesting to me. what is the number one item that has to do with a.i. but it is something for kids from mattel? >> i'm a big fan of this a.i. picksary game. that's right. >> what is it? >> it is $25. you get to play picksartionary your phone. you set up your phone, you have a drawing board and you get to draw and you get to have the phone scan andsee if it guesses what you have drawn accurately. >> wow. >> it is a new thing. >> $25. why don't you go a little higher end for people with maybe a few hundred bucks they can spend. what would you recommend? >> i want to stay on the a.i. theme because i think there's lots of buzz and lots of hype and lots of negativity around a.i. but i think there's a lot of fun to have with a.i. as

well. we had the a.i. pictionary. the other is a bird buddy. it is a bird house with a.i. built in. so it has a camera in the bird house. >> i've seen those! >> the bird tops by, eitats the food and then the a.i. a is using machine learning to tell you what kind of bird it is. i have it outside my house and it is best thing i have bought this year. >> it sends picture every time a bird stops by. >> you can control that. my kids love this thing. by the way, lots of squirrels love the bird house. i'm working on that. that's less of a technical thing. you have to figure out the food not to have the kwirls come by. neither rear or -- >> give me something that

somebody with less than a few hundred dollars could buy. >> the iphone was $1200 and i think if you are getting it, you should get the biggest. it has a bigger screen and better battery life which i have written extensively on the battery life issues of the previous mobls. i'm going to say it. all i want for christmas is usbc. this is the port changed from lightning to sbc on the iphones. it is a big change but you want to give people the stocking stuffs of the cords which will come back down. you can get pretty good cords for under $25. here i am telling you to buy an expensive phone but you can buy some cheap cables. joanna, let's talk about how apple is doing heading into the holiday season with what the expectations are. maybe get to a couple of other companies, too. it has been a big smartphone turn down. i would say to anyone shopping

today there's no such thing in the world as a free iphone. you will see all of the companies, the verizons, the at&t, the t mobiles telling you that you can get a free iphone. there's the trade in there. you have to sign up for the bigger plans. the deal is to keep you on those networks. it is all a push to keep you to upgrading the iphone every couple of years. >> what's the expectation? there was so much pulled forward during the pandemic. there were concerns that maybe the consumer would slow down. have we seen that at all yet? >> we have certainly seen it in smartphones. apple announced global shares of -- the market of smartphones has been down, declining quarter over quarter. they're hoping the iphone 15 pushes it ahead. apple has talked about their macs.

they've pushed them out with the chip. faster prosecutor form answer doesn't get you much more improvement in the hardware but the chips are faster. >> joanna, thank you. joanna stern. appreciate the tips and see you soon. >> i think i figured out the sam altman story. >> you did? >> he was working on a.i., the bird buddy thing that was going to kill the squirrel. that's what it was. the other part of the word wanted not to feed the squirrel but sam wanted to skill the kwirl with a.i. >> there are questions about terminator. >> exactly right. big pharma chasing another big market and nothing to do with weight loss. you can get the best of "squawk box" on the dale podcast. box" on the dale podcast. follow "squa (♪♪) listen any time. we'll be right back. (♪♪) [garage door opening] (♪♪) [inaudible chatter]

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welcome back to "squawk box." we take a look at the futures a day after thanksgiving, a shortened trading day. the dow will open 52, 53 points higher. s&p 500 up marginally. the nasdaq is off about 11 points. we will talk about nvidia in a little bit, down this morning. check out bit counsel this morning, up more than a percent. for the month, the cryptocurrency up nearly 12%. i don't know. was it one of the years people, steve, talked about bitcoin at the charging table? i remember in years past where it was, you know, a conversation across the country, but i don't

know if it is now. maybe it was. >> it didn't come up at my table. kind of interesting, i didn't notice that until you pointed it out. we have a bunch of 20 somethings there but they didn't talk about it and you would think they would. what about your, andrews? >> i have small guys, obviously not as old as yours, and they occasionally do -- not this year, but they do talk about -- you know, they're like crypto curious. >> i'm trying to remember what we talked about. we were just eating so much. we decided not to do politics. >> we had a small table and, yes, it was all good. copacetic. >> all good. >> also not talking about cryptos may be a sign of acceptance to some level too, andrew, just the idea it is not -- >> matured, the thing. >> nothing new. it is not the "it" topic anymore because it has kind of melted into being here i guess.

>> maybe. >> all right. while the race for weight loss jobs dominated the headlines, several pharma giants have having success with the new rsv vaccines which analysts see as a potential $10 billion global market. joining us to talk is our health and pharmaceutical, angelica houston. let's start off with the question. are people getting this vaccine? >> they are getting it and it is early. so these rsv vaccines, there's two for seniors. one from gsk called arexvy. about 14 million seniors have gotten these so far which doesn't sound like a lot but there's also pfizer's vaccine available for pregnant people. it is harder to parse out that

data but we're seeing the new monoclonal antibody for babies that sanofi, who makes it, is having a hard time making enough. >> this is not the flu vaccine? >> no. >> it is not the covid vaccine? >> no. >> either of these things are going to protect me from the rsv if i get the flu and the covid vaccine? >> correct. >> one day, modern and pfizer and other companies want to combine them all, but just now talking about the rsv. >> so i'm supposed to get the flu, the covid and the rsv? >> and don't forget the shingles. >> i kind of expect that. >> my mother-in-law went to get it and they told it would cost her $300 because medicare doesn't cover it, part b, if that's fapart of it. i wonder if that's going to trip

people up. $300 is a lot to pay for a vaccine you didn't have last year. >> it is interesting. the vaccines are so new, that hearing from people trying to get the maternal vaccine, it has been tricky but also the one for seniors too. g sk when they reported last month said one thing that's helping them see is that the drug-pricing law passed earlier, that actually eliminates the co-pays for vaccines. i'm not exactly sure why that was the case. >> that's what they told her before they were going to give it to her. >> that's the hard thing, people are facing all of these hurdles. part will be as people get more comfortable using the vaccines and we might see the hiccups cleared up. >> is it cord by medicare? >> it should be. it should be no co-pay. >> is there a winner when you

see this? >> gsg is on pace to do a billion dollars in sales by end of the year. they're saying they have two of every three rsv vaccines that's actually given so far. they have far and away market share right now, but we are going to see this continue to be competitive because we have the pfizer vaccine that's available for seniors and for pregnant people which they say might make it more enticing for retailers to carry their vaccine. and memberthen moderna is hopin launch its own vaccine next year. it is turning out to be a competitive market and $10 billion globally is what we are expecting, which sound like a lot, but we could be divvying it up between a bunch of different players. >> angelica, thanks for joining us. i think i'm getting a pain in my right arm thinking what i have to do. andrew probably has his vaccines, you're up to date.

>> fos the mortgage part. i don't national oceanic and atmospheric administration i have them all. i may be delayed -- i may not need more of them but i think i'm out of date. talking about how healthy the consumer is right now. max levchin ceo of buy-now-pay-later affirm, will be our gstue. "squawk box" returns after this. [ "i'll be seeing you" by the five satins ]

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welcome back. it is the kickoff of shopping season. joining us on this black friday with the state of the consumer spending, credit and we'll talk about the valley, too. max levchin is here, ceo of affirm, one of the original co-founders of paypal. i want to wish you a happy thanksgiving to begin with. nice to see you. >> nice to see you as well. happy thanksgiving. >> help us to understand what is happening in terms of what you are seeing as it relates to the consumer. you have a fabulously exciting product a lot of people are now using, but you get to have a sense i think of how people's credit and also just how -- how

much demand there really is out there right now. there's a sense that maybe things are slowing, but maybe they're not. >> you know, it is a little too early to tell. ask me the same question, five, ten days from now and my crystal ball will be in perfect focus. two weeks ago we surveyed 2,000 u.s. consumers and two in three told us interest free president obam promos are what they're looking for. in the overall economy three in four said they intend to spend as money this year as last year. so consumer sentiment going into black friday and cyber monday appears to be strong. the state of economy no matter what you hear on the news is pretty strong. the employment is excellent. if you want a job, you can get one. so i remain quite bullish. >> max, people who use your

service andothers -- and competitors of your service, do you -- when you see an uptick in usage you say it is a good sign for the economy or that's a bad sign for the economy? >> it is a little more nuanced than that. if we see uptick in usage and we see for that consumer, that segment of consumers uptick of other credit products we see it as a warning sign because people are going into more debt. because we underwrite we would eventually not approve that transaction. because when people overextend themselves they're doing themselves and the economy a disservice. when we see affirm as a replacement for other products, we exist as a more hon est alternative to credit cards. it is great that people choose to use it than revolving on

every coffee and sandwich. >> it used to be very high-end products, expensive product. are people using it for smaller products now and what does that say about where the consumer really lies? >> that's exactly right. we started out in the super considered purchases, you know, large bicycles and, you know, workout equipment, et cetera, furniture, and it is still a significant component of our business. but we see demand for affirm all the way down to lower and lower ticket items. it is a good thing, again, from my point of view. it just signals that the demand for this kind of product is entering popular conscience and people are not afraid to use a new payment product for everything. so we're excited to offer services. it doesn't mean that every product we have today fits every transaction. we'll continue innovating and creating new ways to affirm for smaller purchases. for example, a card we launched

a couple of months ago is experiencing incredible demand because we think people have come to use us for every kind of purchase. >> we were talking earlier in the broadcast about people buying directly through social media sites. tiktok, obviously you can buy directly through it using amazon. i don't know if you can use the amazon piece of what you do through them. how is that going to change things in terms of how frictionless this gets? by the way, frictionless great in many ways but i wonder, especially younger people, whether we think the frictionless is a good thing or bad thing given the credit component of it. >> i think maybe not my place to comment on just how frictionless commerce should be, but i think it is important that we educate consumers about gotchas and tricks the financial industry has come up with over the decades to make them pay a little more than they should. our product obviously provides an alternative where you always

pay exactly what you see. i do think that shopping within social media sites and various other forms of embedded commerce is on the rise and has everything to do with the fact demand is now manufactured through visual stimulation in many, many feeds that we see. >> max, i wanted to pivot the conversation for just a moment. i know becky has a question that may very well relate back to the consumer and your business, but you've been a long-time follower of "the valley" and we have spent endless amounts of time over the last week talking about openai and sam altman and what all of this means. i am so curious what you think about it. >> you know -- catch up to sam so i don't know way think about the drama that expired. i know him very well. he is an extraordinarily high integrity, high, true north of personal values kind of guy. so what happened and whatever

happens, i expect sam to come out to be an extremely good actor. >> are you though excited about -- are you excited about a.i. or are you somebody who's a little anxious about it? >> i'm -- i'm an accelerationist to use the new-found terminology. i think if you look back historically as far as you want to go you will see that technology has always given us more safety, better distributed wealth, created opportunities for people. i think breaking the looms is a terribly de and putting gates around innovation is a bad move. we have to be careful. we have to be thoughtful. we have to regulate it. i'm a big fan of thoughtful regulation, but ultimately saying put the genie in the box and seal it and hope it doesn't come out i think is wrong. >> back to the idea how the consumer is doing, and one of the things we've heard about lately is how rates have gone up

how it put a pinch on the consumer. with your business, how does that impact you. as rates rise does it slow down the consumer purchases at all? >> these things take a long time to perk lcolate percolate to th. the last quarters show we're able to operate a business with the same margin structure, with statement output even in the new world of higher rates. i think consumers generally speaking are more impacted by inflation itself, what the interest rates are meant to fight than the cost of borrowing. the cost of borrowing eventually percolates down to the cost of manufacturing and the prices will reflect that and that's why the prices are so sticky. primarily we are seeing change in shopping trends in store brands more often as people deal with the fact their dollar

doesn't go as far as it used to. >> max levchin, we want to thank you for your perspective on all of this. want to wish you and your family happy thanksgiving. have great weekend and hope to see you soon, maybe in person. thanks. >> great to see you. up next, will there be trouble in toyland this holiday season in the making of lol dolls, founder and kreceo, isaa larian, will give us information. "squawk box" will be right back. : our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly.

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i was on a work trip when the pulmonary embolism happened. but because i have 23andme, i was aware of that gene. that saved my life.

well, black friday has arrived. oh, we are looking at some live shoppers. this is actually taking place, they're here kicking off the holiday shopping season. you can see it all. >> so civilized. >> yeah. not the same sort of crazy. >> people aren't hitting each other. >> but you are talking about lines out the door. >> they should be running over each other. >> while you didn't see the midnight openings or the door busters, you are seeing lines. it is expected to be the busiest day of the holiday shopping season in terms of traffic. not necessarily in terms of spending but definitely in terms of traffic. here you see it in deer park, new york. obviously this season though, this year may not be so merry for toy makers. flash warning from some of the largest toy makers suggested toy sales will be down this year as consumer spending pulls back. joining us with more on this is

mga entertainment founder and ceo isaac larian on what he is seeing heading into the holidays. isaac, we should put it in contest. toy sales were so hot in 2020, 2021 when people were in lock down. you saw them skyrocket. this year the year has been flat but you are warning you could see a pull back of double digits. why don't you tell us what is going on right now? >> thank you for having me. happy holiday. toy business, people will buy toys for their kids all the time, and at the end of the year there's going to be a toy under the tree. however, i see the ptoy busines being down industry wide by 8% to 12% by end of the year. there are bright spots. if you have four or five of them, one is called little

tyke's dream machine which is pretty much sold out and will be gone by christmas. consumers are waiting for deals. black friday has become what i call black november, black december. the whole month is the black friday. so it will be interest evening to see. you know, my daughter owns a large manufacturer business ca called -- and strangely her business is up. i don't know what to make of it. but i think toy business as a whole is going to be down this year. >> part of what we've seen though is, as you mentioned, hot toys are hot toys. if you look at mattel they've had super success with barbie. i think barbie sales were up 25% in july and august after that movie was released. is that part of the issue that's facing here, people are being

picky and choosy and if you don't have the hot item, whether it is from a movie or something else, that line is going to suffer? >> yes, you know, when movies come out usually you have support, sales grow for four to six weeks and then decline. barbie now, sales are down. people are looking for great toys. when you look at rainbow high fashion dolls, the doll not having movie, it is still the number one industry wide because people are looking for great toys, not just a movie. innovation is very key to selling toys. >> you said barbie sales are down? barbie sales are down. i hadn't heard that. >> yes. >> that's what your tracking is showing you from a year ago. >> yes, after the movie the sales ticked, definitely went up after the movie. but now you don't see any --

except for one item, you don't see any barbie on the top 50 toys and mga has five of them. so it is -- i think it is about the product and the innovation, that's what consumers are looking for and they're looking for deals. they're looking for great promotions this holiday. >> i think i read earlier that you had said in your 44 years of doing this, this was the toughest year. is that really the case? >> it is 100% the case. more challenging toy sales i've seen in 44 years. >> why do you think that is? >> a lot of things. first of all, during the pandemic there was too much inventory out there that is cycling through. i mean if you bought a board game during the pandemic, you're not going to buy another one now. >> right. >> so those are one of the things. the lack of really great, innovation, hot toys is another

one. consumer is pinched. student loans are going to start paying or they're already paying debt, and that is going to take some money out of all consumer goods, not only the combination of forces that are making this happen. >> why did i see, isaac, a walmart advertisement, i think it was yesterday, telling me that i shouldn't give kids a toy to share, i should buy them one each separately? did you see that one? i didn't understand it. don't share it, buy each one. i never thought that was a problem. >> you know, i got to tell you, william white, who is cmo of walmart, has done an incredible job this year of promoting and marketing toys. that's one of the things.

if you have -- if you need to buy for a girl, you buy rainbow high doll. if you buy for a boy, you buy the car that you can share. it's really different. you cannot specify it. >> i want to thank you for your time. this is an important time of the year for you, the holiday shopping season. >> thank you for having me. i appreciate it. okay, coming up, feeling stuffed the morning after your holiday feast, you must stick around for this next segment, the weight loss drug gold rush that has some big pharma news .ulling in fat profits the names to watch when "squawk box" comes back. [ "i'll be seeing you" by the five satins ]

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box." nova norths saying it will launch its antiobesity drug wegovy in japan next year, the first launch in asia where obesity is a much smaller issue than other countries. they have one of the lowest obesity rates in the world. interesting to see whether folks there use it and how it's used and what it means to the business there.

>> we shouldn't do this segment. it's not really fair to do this, but the morning after a holiday feast, heartburn, maybe some indigestion, maybe you have, shouldn't have done that after having that extra piece of pumpkin pie. remember what louis c.k. said, it's not over when i'm full, when i'm sick. it's over when i hate myself. that has consumers thinking more about weight loss drugs and big pharma is already cashing in. the front-runners, eli lilly up 63%. joining us with more on the weight loss drug trend, emily field, head of pharmaceutical research at barclays. a fast moving field. what's the latest on terms of which drug is coming to market and when and the big story for 2024? >> yeah, thanks for having me. happy thanksgiving. right now, it's still exactly eli lilly and novo nortis, we think it's going to stay that way for a while.

really for 2024, it's about how fast can these companies make the drugs because demand is there, and both companies have been in a supply constraint situation. the other pharma companies are working as fast as they can to get to market but these two have such a lead for now. >> is there a way, there's an etf in this space, right? >> i'm not sure about that, but you know, here at barclays we tried to create baskets in terms of winners and losers for this, and talking to our colleagues and consumer medtech, it's well, what actually can win aside from pharma here, because everything else could potentially be at risk. >> in terms of just playing this space as an investor, you just buy the basket of big pharma is what you're saying. >> i mean, what's really worked across all of global pharma this year is owning novo and lilly, because it's been a difficult space, kind of sector wide. the next data point we're waiting for is pfizer is going to have data in phase two of an

obesity pill, but they'll still need to run a phase three study which will take over a your. >> what about insurance? is insurance going to cover this? >> yeah, so with both eli lilly and novo nortis are doing are trying to run clinical trials saying if you lose all this weight, do you have less chance of going on dialysis, having a heart attack or a stroke. they produced data from a landmark study from a conference just a couple weeks ago showing you have a 20% less chance of having a heart attack or stroke if you take wegovy and you're high risk, so we're thinking more data, better insurance coverage. >> what's the -- what's the revenue stream here? is this one of those things you have to take forever? i have heard different stories on this, that you can take it for a while, lose some weight, and then you don't have to take the pill again. >> so when we talk to doctors in the field, what they say is obesity is a chronic disease, and it requires chronic

treatment. if you go off these drugs it might not be as fast as you lost it, but you're going to gain the weight back. so there's still relatively new, how long are people actually going to take them in the real world? that's one of the biggest questions we deal with on a daily basis, but we do think it's going to be a multi-year period that people take these drugs. >> is it your expectation they work out the psupply issues tha have been limiting factors? >> eventually, although it's going to take long time. they had announcements of building new capacity internationally, so they're working as fast as they can. it's going to take a while. >> amally, thanks for joining us. when these drugs were introduced, i was amazed at how much of the s&p 500 was reliant on fat. all of a sudden, people were not going to be fat anymore. it was quite remarkable. thanks for joining us. >> thank you. right now, let's get a final check on the markets.

this is an early day of trading. i think the stock market is only open until 1:00 p.m., bond market until 2:00 p.m. the futures, you're seeing green arrows. dow futures up by 57 points. s&p futures up by 2, nasdaq up by 1. this comes after gains continued, i think six of seven days we have seen the s&p and nasdaq up in a row. pretty strong not just this week but markets over the last three, 3 1/2 weeks at this point. a lot of that is because of what we have seen in the treasury market. if you look at yeeltds, we're continuing to look at yields below what had been the months leading up to this. the ten-year is up this morning but still below 4.5%. the two-year still below 5% at 4.94%, and oil prices have been a little weaker, although this morning i think we're up a little, oh, back down. down by a dollar to $76.09. steve, you were going to make a point. >> notice the huge dispersion in estimates for the holiday

season. 5.7, 13%, i'm not sure which to believe. jan writing me a note offline saying he's never seen this wide of a dispersion of different things. we don't know what's happening, don't jump to conclusions is what i would say. >> we will see what happens on this black friday shopping day. have a great rest of your wee weekend. we'll see you all back here next week. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." good friday morning. hope you had a great thanksgiving. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl with david, sara at the new york stock exchange. it's a shortened session for stocks today, but plenty to watch as the holiday season officially kicks off. u.s. equities on pace for their fourth consecutive weekly gain and one of the best novembers in 100 years. our road map begins with reta