season. 5.7, 13%, i'm not sure which to believe. jan writing me a note offline saying he's never seen this wide of a dispersion of different things. we don't know what's happening, don't jump to conclusions is what i would say. >> we will see what happens on this black friday shopping day. have a great rest of your wee weekend. we'll see you all back here next week. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." good friday morning. hope you had a great thanksgiving. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl with david, sara at the new york stock exchange. it's a shortened session for stocks today, but plenty to watch as the holiday season officially kicks off. u.s. equities on pace for their fourth consecutive weekly gain and one of the best novembers in 100 years. our road map begins with retail's big holiday hopes.

kicking off the holiday shopping season with a cautious outlook. amazon facing strikes in the u.s. and europe on this black friday. >> plus, nvidia shares are moving lower. the chip making reportedly telling makers they're delays a chip. and cease-fire, a tentative four-day agreement between israel and hamas appears to have taken hold, setting the ground for a staggered hostage and prisoner release. >> let's begin with an eye on retail. investors watching what is typically one of the busiest shopping days of the year for signs of more cautious consumer spending going into the holiday season. retailers worry about holiday shoppers' mood, and yet nrf is expecting best turnout as we look at live shots of malls, since 2017. >> 2021 was the really strong year for holiday shopping. those numbers were up 12.7%.

2020 spending was up 9%. and then 2022, kind of moderated to 5.4%. we'll see if we can get a number, the original expectation from the nrf was 3% to 4%. i feel like expectations have been lowered by the retailers themselves to a number of them have warned about the holiday spending season, even the retailers that came out and raised guidance like aber kr kraumby and finch didn't come in as high as expected. so i think the setup is that people aren't expecting a very strong -- they expect promotions to be pretty deep. we have already seen that. the question is, are we still paying more than we were a year ago with inflation? but overall, i don't think there are these great hopes for a big season. what do you think, david? >> what do i think, sara? >> were you going online yesterday? >> no, i would note things are very different than they were five years ago, let alone 10 or 15 in terms of judging overall

demand from the traffic we get on a day like today. as we all know, people shop increasingly online. and those deals were apparent or already made apparent a few days ago and will continue throughout the holiday season. so it's become a lot more difficult in some ways i think, in all the different data points we get and providers to really pinpoint at least during the season how strong it is. >> remember back in the day, like live shots were material in terms of foot traffic and i would go out to the mall and we would say, yeah, it's busy or it's not. longer calendar this year, 31 shopping days between thanksgiving and christmas, which is about the longest you can get as the calendars circulate. only 26 days next year. so on -- i guess on a nominal basis, we'll have more room for shopping. >> that should help. that should help with the retailers' numbers. this is 20% of their usually on average their overall profits.

i think the are a number of factors at work in the economy. the higher rates that we have had, the higher inflation we had, the student loan payment resumption. this is one we hear about on conference calls from retailers. target listed it as a headwind. hard to quantify. i went and found some surveys. jefferies did a survey recently, 850 plus consumers with outstanding student loan debt, they say the results indicating consumers are under significant financial pressure, when asked if they're cutting back, 50% said on apparel and accessories. 42% said on restaurants, and 42% said on beauty. 41% said on grocery as well. that could lead to some trade downs. i think that's an unknown factor for a very important demographic cohort. >> but you have also been tracking the commentary from many of the retailers. you do it oftentimes at the top of the ten, most recently in the

earnings season. it was a mixed bag. that's being kind. there was a lot of cautious commentary, it would seem, although it's not clear exactly if that's sort of a fore runner to expectations by some of the ceos and cfos or if they're really seeing it. >> cautious commentary, and part is that where consumers are spending matters a lot right now. we should just pull up a year to date chart of live nation, of carnival cruise line, of marriott. this is till the yolo economy, where the spending is going on vacations and taylor swift and beyonce concerts. these stocks are up significantly year to date. 20% at least for live nation. 25%, 60% or more for carnival cruises. so if you're at a best buy, you have been feeling this downturn or recession for a long time now. home depot, lowe's, no wonder people aren't spending on their homes as much. we did that during the pandemic. >> and they said do it yourself is not what it was.

>> makes it harder to figure out whether the consumer is going into a recession or a pronounced weakness because we hear from live nation and carnival and marriott, you don't hear about decreased demand for consumer spending yet. they get a little bit of a lead time, too, when people book their tickets and travel. hard to imagine first of all with an unemployment rate below 4% that there's severe stress. >> let's stick with retail and the mall. courtney reagan is tracking the data and foot traffic in a mall outside new york and joins us now. good morning, courtney. >> reporter: good morning, david. i appreciate that you understand this is getting harder and harder to figure out with all the different data points that we're getting over the years now and how things are stretched out earlier, later across platform. i'm here at a mall in west niac. this mall didn't open until 7:00 a.m. that's very different from what we have seen in years past with shoppers lined up and storming the doors. that doesn't really happen

anymore with the earlier deals and online deals. we're getting brand-new numbers from adobe for thanksgiving online sales, growing 5.5% to $5.6 billion. that's just a hair less than adobe had predicted we would see on thanksgiving day. today on black friday, adobe expects online sales to grow at about the same rate, 5.7%, but that would reach $9.6 billion if that's indeed what we end up seeing. barbie, marvel, nin teddo and holiday decor are among the top sellers online so far. captify says top retailers search for this black friday in order, target, walmart, home depot, and costco. target searchers are up more than 450%. walmart up more than 100% from last year. i told you on monday home depot is often one of the hottest names on this day, which you might not expect for black friday. it is usually one of their biggest days online for sales.

there you see them at number three according to captify. nintendo switch and playstation 5 are top for consoles. those sales up year over year. here's a live look at retail traffic on shopify merchant sites around the world. the average u.s. order came in a little over $119 on thanksgiving day. a little less globally at $109. wallet hub say the average discount today is about 35%, with the biggest discounts at the department stores like jcpenney, macy's offering about 55%, at least as an average. as you mention, today is expected to be the busiest foot traffic day of the year. that doesn't necessarily mean it will be the biggest sales day of the year, and of course, foot traffic is less now than it used to be because of all the factors that we discussed. still, the national retail

federation expects almost 131 million americans, 72% of the population, will shop somehow today, in store, online, or both. i have already started and i have carts loaded up. back to you guys. >> carts, right. same here. thank you. courtney reagan at it mall. let's continue the conversation with oliver chen, senior retail analyst. so among the names you cover, oliver, what would you say is the level of caution right now heading into this holiday season? >> yeah, the themes are right. happy holidays, by the way. this morning, we were at walmart supercenter, the first one here in louisiana. i am cautious. we tweaked down our holiday estimates to plus 2% to 3%. what we're looking for is flat traffic as well. we're also watching credit statistics. they're getting higher and worse versus prepandemic. that's something to follow too. that being said, there are bright spots. this is a holiday about value, about gift giving.

we think walmart and ulta are well positioned and they are our black friday picks as well. we noticed the best traffic there as well. >> what do you do as an investor? it's obviously such a critical sales period for the retailers. so what do you do with some of those names right now? >> we would own walmart. we think everyday low prices value what they're doing across the whole store, including artificial intelligence. it's a big technology story, and they also had exciting doorbusters. at ulta, we love beauty, wellness, and what's happening in that category. investing in your face and skin care is a great category. as we think about the consumer, it's time to be somewhat defensive. walmart is the u.s.'s biggest grocer, and beauty is considered an essential. so that's how we're thinking about it, and we're a lot more cautious on consumer discretionary. there is a consumer discretionary recession. that's something to pay attention to. and we're noticing lots of

promos. promos are flattish to last year, however, everyday low prices, opening price points, those are more compelling this year, and simpler this year as well. >> oliver, gas prices down about 15% since labor day. one of the biggest seasonal drops in the past 20 years. i wonder, has that forced you to change your model as we have gotten deeper into the season? >> yeah, carl. gas is something we're watching. it's been somewhat volatile, which has been a little bit negative earlier in the fall. what we're really watching is weather. unfortunately, weather has been warmer. we need cold snaps and that will be very helpful. warmer weather overall has been a penalty to this holiday season. one other thing we're watching is there's an extra day between thanksgiving and christmas. that could help by 20 to 50 basis points, and we need all the help we can get this season. so gas is something that really does have a lot to do with traffic. lower will be better. >> oliver chen, thank you very much for setting the scene for

us on this black friday. happy holidays. let's turn to the latest in the israel/hamas war. the two sides agreeing on a temporary cease-fire as part of a hostage release deal. david is live on the scene with the latest today. hi, david. >> reporter: hi, carl. good morning. i'm in ramallah, in the occupied west bank in palestine. behind me is an israeli military jail. we're here waiting for the release of the first group of 39 palestinian prisoners who are being released in exchange for the 13 israeli hostages from the gaza strip who are also expected to be released in the coming hours. there's a crowd of palestinians who have gathered here today to greet the prisoners who are expected to be released. about 30 of that first group of 39 who will be released from this prison. the israeli authorities warned palestinians in the west bank not to gather in crowds, not to do exactly what they're doing now. they're clearly defying those orders. many have palestinian flags.

in terms of how this fits into the larger cease-fire exchange, so far, it has mostly held. there have been a couple instances on both sides. maybe things were on thin ice, but for now it's holding. israeli authorities have indicated they're fully prepared to respond -- we have heard from the white house that none of those hostages will be americans. it will be women and children. >> david, we'll do our best to keep that signal going. we're expecting some of those releases around 4:00 p.m. local time, as well as hundreds of trucks of humanitarian aid that as part of this deal will be able to go in the region. take a look at the premarket futures holding in despite some elevated yields. we'll talk about reasons why. a lot stemming from germany and euro. quk t seepe"sawonhetrt" continues. data to create a competitive advantage. ♪

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major averages are on pace for what would be a four-week winning streak. jefferies chief market strategist joins us here at post nine. we'll talk about the equity markets but start off on the

broader credit markets. great to see you here in person, looking good. gh feeling good. >> glad to hear that. heading into 2024, you remain hopeful all of those who were involved in misunderstanding u.s. inflation basically shut up. but of course, those are my words, partially yours. you do say please don't fall for another one of those flaws demand side armageddon style recession calls in 2024. why do you say that? all i think all of the arguments that the folks are making that are about a recession coming in '24, exactly the same they were making a year ago. nothing has changed. and i look at this as a year where we really learned that supply is the driver of inflation. that it's really been a supply side story. and continues to be a supply side story. i'm not willing to go down that demand side rabbit hole that many folks went down last year where they said we have to have two years of 6.5% or 7%

unemployment just to get inflation back to 2%. i think that was just one of the great failures of modern keynesian economics. why would we listen to those same people when their arguments are no different than before? >> jay powell clearly not listening to them, although i do -- >> i'm happy about that. >> on the other side, is your expectation he would be willing to cut perhaps as quickly as some of the market expect come 2024? >> i don't think so. i think jay is going to stand quite stalwart, going to have a lot of political pressure. it's an election year. this is going to be a really tough one for jay, but he has a couple years left in his term. i think he wants to go out as the paul volcker type guy that slayed the great covid inflation and ride off into the sunset that way. i don't think he wants to be seen at all like an arthur burns style character, which is someone who was rolled over by his administration back in the '70s and even bill martin back

in the late '60 in the vietnam war. that's not where jay wants to go down in the books. he wants to go out as that stalwart central banker that ends up in what i like to think of as central banking heaven. there's a chair with paul volcker sitting there and everybody is looking up to him. he's got some german guys and swiss guys around him, maybe a japanese guy, and then there's central bank hell, and that's arthur burns. you throw a few italians and greeks and argentinians and i guess the argentinians are going to be out of a job. >> a new place in hell for them. >> but i think that's where he wants to go, and i think he can go there. he's done an incredible job at managing one of the most difficult supply shocks we have witnessed in our careers. >> although there are still questions about whether we go now from 4% to 2% on inflation,

this last mile, and we have seen a little bit of worrisome signals on the inflation expectations, certainly from the university of michigan. it's not like mission accomplished. >> no, you're wright. that's why i kind of answered david's question the way i did, which is to say i don't think he's going to give in and declare an early victory. i think he's going to do a few flag waves like we got this, but he's not going to go all in and say we got this and we're cutting rates now. the market might be ahead of itself. once again, like it was last year. remember, last year around this time, we were forecasting rate cuts by september of this year. and we were forecasting a recession. the 70%, i think 70% of all the professional forecasting economists out there for 2023 were forecasting a recession. >> but now it's 70% forecasting no recession in 2024. so doesn't that make you nervous? >> it does. i hate being in the consensus. i love where i was a year ago. i think we're going to slow.

i really do. i think we're going to have some demand side pressure, which maybe gives me a little more confidence in answering your question, which is there could be demand side slowing that brings inflation a little bit faster to 2%. >> so then at what point are real rates restrictive enough where you could have a cut of some kind, regardless of the motivation? >> that seems to be the argument that the john williams has made, m mary daly has made. you have seen it from a lot of economists andprivate forecasting economists. i get it, real rates are going up. if nominal rates are staying steady and inflation is going down, real rates are going up. kind of going back to where sara was, we still have a job to do and he has a job to do. we're still at 4% on the core cpi. i think he's not going to jump the gun on it. and i made a big point this year, and this, i think, doesn't get enough air play.

we haven't talked about it much when i have come on via zoom with you guys. the balance sheet of the fed is still super, super expansive. an $8 trillion balance sheet with all that liquidity, the reserves, the cash in circulation. not to mention the balance sheet took a huge loss that the market would have otherwise had to take if there was not a large balance sheet. so the balance sheet is very stimulative. you can't look at monetary policy just through the real rate lens. you have to take it with balance sheet and real rate. and they have two levers now. they had it since '08. the balance sheet to me is still super accommodative. that offsets some of that restrictiveness in rates. >> a lot of people disagree and think it's not the stock, it's the flow. >> a lot of people, but it does a lot of explaining of where we sit today, even with 5.25% interest rates. that's a big number, and taken by itself, i think would have done a lot more damage without

the balance sheet being so big. but you're absolutely right. i am speaking from a minority, which again, i like doing. >> david, we're very happy to have had you here. come back in person soon. >> so good to be back. >> waiting to the fed cuts to cut your hair again? >> i'm not going to do that. maybe we'll do the beard next time. >> look at him, he looks great. >> just wondering what he's waiting for. >> david. >> take a look at the premarket. a lot more "squawk on the nureet" on this friday in a mite.

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down to the opening bell. dollar general has been a loser. food companies like tyson also on the list. looks like we're pointing to a higher start. opening bell just a few minutes away.

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shares of nvidia in pressure in the premarket following a report out of reuters saying the company is delaying the launch of a new china focused ai chip to comply with fresh u.s. export rules. some of this was hinted at on the call earlier in the week. although for a company that gets a fifth of its revenue out of china, anything regarding supply to china is going to get scrutiny. >> without a doubt. that was, if you want to call it, the negative from what was an extraordinary quarter yet again for the company. the recent perhaps somewhat negative results given the size of the beat and the guidance in trading on wednesday after the report tuesday after the bell. we'll see, you know, what they

look like here. again, the important point is not a positive response to what was otherwise a very good quarter. >> and according to the report from the semi analysis newsletter they were supposed to launch. >> the opening bell here, and the cnbc real time exchange. the big board, it is american express celebrating small business saturday at the nasdaq. it's amazon kicking off the holiday shopping season. we have a ton of amazon headlines, not just black friday football today. dolphins/jets, 3:00 p.m. eastern. but getting approval in the eu for the acquisition of i-robot, no conditions i think is what the headlines suggested and then facing labor demonstrations in europe. >> when it comes to i-robot,

this is a deal that was announced back in august of '22. originally at $61 a share. it was revised down last july. this last july, to $51.75 a share. the company took on some debt. and it remains unclear whether they're going to get approval. the eu story that carl is referring to is a reuters story saying amazon is set to win unconditional eu antitrust approval for that acquisition. they're citing three people familiar with the matter. we haven't heard from the u.s. ftc. it's been august of '22 we're talking about here. there is still a key question as to what's going to happen to the fate of this deal overall. again, you can see given the price, even at $51, there is continued concern. a very positive response to that report about unconditional from the eu. we haven't gotten it officially, i don't believe. >> then on the labor strikes, it's not clear just how many

workers are going to be affected. i think in coventry in the uk, it's 1,000, but all the comments from amazon say it's not going to be disruptive for black friday. an issue to watch, though, for investors even if it's not disruptive. in the u.s., we know amazon could face a wave of labor action after the workers in the new york site voted to form the first american union at the facilities last year. amazon has been successful at combatting this. there have been a number of drives that have failed in the previous few years. it's something to watch, especially as we continue to see labor movements gain power across the country. >> what's been interesting in the u.s. is the number of disruptions that have been really kind of settled quickly. teamsters u.p.s., obviously, the uaw, the director's guild, the writers district, sag-aftra. >> settled, not very quickly, but yes. >> it's labor dispute for a reason. we actually got wynn ratifying

the five-year deal. we have kseizers, mgm. >> but it's been an unusual year for labor, you want to call it unrest, but certainly, the uaw strike, of course, which only got recently resolved is a key one, and hollywood actors and writers. they're getting back to work, i guess, at this point. >> we're starting to see the marketing hit for wonka and maestro. we'll see how trolls does this weekend. go universal. what else is on the list besides trolls? there's wish out of disney. >> napoleon is out there, too. now the actors can promote, which was a key problem and one reason you did not see anything showing up at the box office, even when it was ready. >> you think this black friday football thing could turn into a tradition? we haven't had a black friday football game since 1962. >> i heard becky say that earlier on "squawk box." wasn't even the nfl. it was the afl.

>> makes sense amazon would want it on black friday. >> and they're going to be promoting certain things within the broadcast itself, for deals specific to prime obviously during the course of the broadcast. i don't know, i'm just hoping that i can watch for more than a half without saying i have to turn this thing off as a long suffering new york jets fan. if we get to 4:00 and there's still a game, i'll be happy. >> you're weeks away from your man coming back. >> right. >> aaron rodgers is coming back? >> he's not human apparently. everyone else, it takes 18 months. but he's going to be four. so -- very good on the aaron rodgers. well done. >> they still won a game without him, which i knew too. >> they have won four games without him. unfortunately, they lost six. >> i'm watching apple, guys, today as well because there's this report, and always with apple, it's not out of the company, it's out of a report.

this is counterpoint research, saying apple saw a drop in smartphone sales in china during the recent singles day promotions. they have specific numbers on here, the number of apple smartphones sold declined 4% from last year during the two-week sales that wrapped up november 12th, and they had strong numbers for some of the competitors like huawei. 66% and 28% growth respectively in that period. potentially a reason why apple is under pressure, and you're also seeing this kind of some of the winners right now are under pressure and the losers of the year are actually gaining today. estee lauder is at the top of the market. that's been a big change from what we have seen in the story of 2023. >> guys, it's not a public company but it is certainly one that has taken a lot of our attention over the last week, open ai, one of the more important companies you could argue out there in general. again, a private company. we can't put a chart up, but what a week it has been for that company. its cofounder and ceo, sam

altman pushed out a ceo, very much unexpectedly over an unexpected zoom call from a board that by the way no longer exists. it's been reconstituted since then, as our viewers probably know. mr. altman was occuut, only to brought back five days later after an enormous move from the employees at open ai itself. we have never been told what was at issue for the previous board, the newly reconstituted board includes only one member of the previous four-member board, or six including altman and brockman. and now includes the likes of larry summers, bret taylor as well. but there has been some interesting reporting on the tension within the company and its board because, remember, their responsibility at that board was not about profitability or protecting equity or owners.

it was about making sure that the ai was developed safely. so this story that you're seeing right there refers to perhaps some new advances that have been made by the ai, and a quote from altman that i think we can share with you, sort of lends a bit to that or i should say some sound from altman to the idea that they were making a new advance, and you know, whether or not this was sort of a key point of disagreement between altman and the board remains unclear, but take a listen. >> this sort of technological change happening now that is going to so change the constraints of the way we live and the sort of economy and social structures and what's possible. i think this is like going to be the greatest leap forward we had yet so far, and the greatest leap forward of any of the big technological revolutions we had so far. so i'm super excited.

i can't imagine anything more exciting to work on. on a personal note, like four times now in the history of open ai, the most recent time was in the last few weeks, i have gotten to be in the room when we sort of push the front, the sort of veil of ignorance back and the frontier of discovery forward and getting to do that is like the professional honor of a lifetime. >> unclear, carl, what exactly he was referring to there. there's some reports that say you can now do math without any preparation. >> i still think we haven't really hashed out this whole unusual structure where a nonprofit board governs a business that is raising a lot of money from investors, and also growing its revenue very rapidly and whether that works or not. because it's still a nonprofit. >> still a nonprofit. >> that still raises questions. >> these new members of the board as far as we're aware, the charter has not changed. their responsibility remains this idea of making sure the

technology is developed safely and not safeguarding the rights and/or trying to maximize the value for shareholders. of course, the key shareholder here is microsoft. that were also an open question at 49%, having contributing through largely credits to use its azure cloud but nonetheless, what do they want? what will they get to make sure something like this doesn't happen again. >> a lot of cynicism surrounding the whole situation. i think the headline in the atlantic this morning is the money wins at openai. interesting to think about things that could go wrong, but then you have bill gates on trevor noah's podcast talking about the promise of ai in his words will eventually allow us to enjoy three-day work weeks, i think the quote is, because the machines will be able to make all the food and the stuff. take a listen. >> you know, the purpose of life is not just to do jobs, so if

you eventually get a society where you only have to work three days a week or something, that's probably okay if the machines can make all the food and the stuff and we don't have to work as hard. >> sort of echoing what dimond has said, our children's children are going to have freedom from cancers and work three days a week. >> reminds me of my interview with mahsa saying it was going to be like roman times. he had a view where people were just being fed grapes. but i'm back to a heightened level of alert, carl. i can't help it. it feels like something out of a horror movie. >> i thought yod wulike a three-day work week? >> i would, but altman is referring to something here, and just doesn't it follow that perfect script of well, the dollar has won out and then the technology ran rampant. you don't hear as much about it. most of the people involved in developing it believe it can continue to be developed in a

relatively safe manner without threatening civilization as we know it. >> but it's not static and not linear. people who think they understand it at this moment might feel differently at some future date. >> i thought the optimism was notable from bill gates, not just on working but also on the promises for health care, which he's very involved in, and education, another big philanthropic effort. let's think about the positives for society, maybe. that was the message i got. >> but it's going -- if in fact it is positive, still people will not be working, but how many people will be put out of a job? will you need something along the lines of this universal income discusses on occasion. then the stuffi you'll be tracking in the near term is productivity and even what it means in 2024 for productivity gains that have not been expected or measured. we'll see. >> we'll see. it also deals with the tight labor market, which will still have going on, potentially, at least for now.

i'm looking at the overall s&p. it's now given back some early gains. flat. did you see the notes, he had some good statistics on the wednesday and friday of thanksgiving week. if we're going to look in the near term on the market, basically, the upshot is usually the market goes up wednesday. then if it goes up wednesday, it goes up friday too. we'll see if that sticks today. >> next week will be key, too. we'll get pce, a lot of dovish commentary son surrounding the n prints next week. and a taste of maybe a little more ai color out of salesforce and workday and others. >> next week, the core pce is going to be key. that's what the fed is targeting. that's the one that remains higher than comfortable, i think especially in light of those rising inflation expectations we saw from the university of michigan. both on one-year and five-year. that's going to be key for the

market and for the fed, and where the market is right now is expected the fed is done and they're going to start cutting rates in may of next year. and the fed is going to do this communication dance where they have to try to convince the market that they're not looking to cut rates anytime soon because they risk undoing a lot of the progress on inflation. that's going to be the delicate dance that we're going to have to walk, that the fed is going to walk and we're going to listen to. >> we got below 4.4% earlier in the week, and you had germany suspend their debt break, that led to elevated yields in europe. it looks like the u.s. is catching up today. comments out of lagarde, almost sounding as if they're deferring to whatever move the fed wants to make next, adding her son lost a lot of his crypto investments. >> i saw that. >> despite her good advice. >> she doesn't sound like the biggest fan of cryptoes. she's pointed to the fact that they're speculative, worthless,

and have a lot of criminal activity in them, which we can point to a few examples, including binance. clearly, the ecb like the fed is in wait and see mode, but has cautioned against celebrating too soon when it comes to inflation coming back down to target. i was watching the euro open as well. we had this election in the netherlands that i think surprised a lot of people, where we saw the far right populist take the lead and took the prime minister role and had a big majority as well when it came to some of the numbers that were expected. he has his independent party. he wants to ban the quran and immigration in the netherlands. we have to watch this and what's happening with immigration. there were obviously the attacks in dublic as well and how it's going to impact the course of not just the economy in europe but politics. >> there's a lot of corners.

latin america as well. although the headlines today is that the rhetoric is getting toned down a bit from the campaign rhetoric, as he has more reassuring comments for trading partners for example. >> the idea of dollarization itself was very difficult to execute, apparently, despite what he may want. look to end on oil. i am noticing exxon and chevron are up, but we have been talking about it as a story. carl mentioned it as well. it has been down sharply since labor day, we're talking about a 15% decline. natural gas also having moved down. there's a look at crude. yet again, but at least or at this point, exxon and chevron, the two i look admost often typically respond negatively and you see the end of the line commodity down, are both up. two of the biggest deals of the year, don't forget. both very large transactions, obviously, in the process of

close. it will take some time for them to complete. >> u.s. production still operating near some records. and with the price of oil here in what was the low $70s, we'll see if the administration takes steps on refilling the spr. the final story is maybe the dollar, sara. a lot of headlines today selling off now at the fastest pace of the year, a lot of that the inverse of last year when the fed was in full hike mode. >> the dollar for the month is down 3%, which is a sizable move for a currency. in the last six months, it's pretty much flat. what's happened is the dollar follows yields. since we have seen treasury yields come down so dramatically, the dollar has weakened dramatically as well. when the conversation moves to cuts, that weakens the dollar. for 2024, it's not a wildly negative outlook because the u.s. is still in better shape than the rest of the world on the economy, better than big trading partners like europe and china, and that keeps the dollar

more attractive. >> on that front, we'll watch bonds today, as we wait for some pmi flash data, but for the time being, we'll look for that, get fed balance sheet this afternoon, ten-year as we were showing you just above 4.4% ahead of a busy data week next week. ♪ something amazing is happening here. data is bringing creativity to life. that's because cdw showed animation studios

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global pmi rolling in, got the u.s. version of the flash. 50.7 is unchanged from the prior. manufacturing, 49.4. down a bit from the prior 50. and services, 50.8, up a touch actually from a prior 50.6. we'll watch that with the dow up 65 to start this friday. stay with us. yber threats each . that rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit,

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expected to shop today online and in stores. that's a new record according to the national retail federation. our next guest says his company is slowly seeing the ramp-up in customers. joining us, l.l. bean ceo stephen smith. great to have you. >> good morning, carl. how are you? >> i'm good. i was thinking of all the

directions we could go, inflation, inventory. it seems like for you guys winter weather is going to be maybe the most important thing. >> yeah, this is l.l. bean's season right now, finally starting to get cold and chilly. we have some wet weather and snow coming across the country which is really helpful for our sales. we're a key holiday destination, and it really is just kicking off now. it's been honestly a slow october, early november, but starting to hit our stride right now. >> we were mentioning earlier the degree to which as least headline try to paint this recent quarter of retail earnings with some pessimism. why do you think that is? is it because october was a little low? >> for sure. weather has a big impact on retail, especially for an outdoor retailer. october was the warmest in history, really across the upper midwest and new england and most retailers were ready to sell cold weather products. that's kicking in now. we saw the same issue over the

summer. june was incredibly wet. and it was really slow going for the summer season. it kicked in in earnest in july. we're also seeing and i heard this earlier in some of your reporting, very much a want and need now creates buy now. so people are really waiting until they need or want the products. >> what's going on with prices, because you see the promos and there are deep discounts, but as a consumer, you can't help feeling like you're paying still a lot higher than you were a few years ago for apparel and accessories. >> yeah, for us, pricing has stabilized. really, the price increases that were more dramatic were in '22 in response to all the supply chain issues. the supply chain has smoothed out and we don't have dramatic price increases this season and going into next year. for sure, all retailers are nervous about inventory levels. we saw that coming out of last year. and you see that in promotional

activity right now. people are trying to move through inventory a little more quickly, and we're seeing promotions. we don't really play that game. we have a lot of confidence in our first price pricing strategy and the high quality and durability of our products. >> but the labor environment, you say, is getting better. what was it like, and what is it like now? >> yeah, this year has been really positive. the past couple years, the labor market has been really challenging in all of our retail stores across the country as well as here in maine and our fulfillment center and manufacturing. this year, we were able to hit all of our seasonal hiring goals. we hire about 4,000 additional people in november and december, and really high caliber folks coming back into the marketplace. couldn't be more confident with the staff we have in place and really happy with how we have been able to recruit and bring in new folks. >> stephen, obviously, an important time, the most important time of the year for your business and the markets in

general to a large degree. thanks for the guidance. have a good holiday. >> thank you. have a great holiday. we'll take a quick break here as the markets add to some gains. the dow up 75. we're back in a couple minutes. you can't buy great conversations or moments that matter, but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. t. rowe price, invest with confidence.

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good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and david faber. it's a holiday shortened trading day. stock market will close at 1:00 p.m. eastern. pond market closes at 2:00. s&p is flipping back and forth between positive and negative. strength in groups like energy, recovering from a big slide this week. health care, materials, staples, industrials, financials are all up right now. the nasdaq is just a little bit weaker, but it is up almost 1% on the week so far.

let's get a check on the bond market, closes at 2:00 p.m. eastern. a huge focus for investors recently. the 10-year yield a little firmer. they're still well off the highs we got 5% or so on the ten-year just a few weeks ago and t continuing the down trend. we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are movers we're watching. shares of nvidia under pressure on reporting it is delaying the launch of its new china focused ai chip designed it comply with u.s. export rules. novo nortis launching wegovy in japan in february. they spent $2 billion to boost production in france, taking those obesity drugs global, and keep an eye on cryptoes. bitcoin rising to a new high, trading above $38,000. bitcoin right now just below that mark. but it is up 1.3%. guys, because it's black friday and we don't have a ton of data

and research, i thought it was a good time to deep dive into the consumer. because i think one of the biggest surprises of 2023 has been the strength of the consumer. everybody always underestimates us, thought we were going into a recession. how can the consumer deal with high rates and inflation? guess what, the consumer did. and that has been a big story. and part of the reason the market is up this year, because of lack of recession and strong growth. where are we right now? there are some warning signs. and we talk about delinquency rates on credit cards, on auto loans. have a chart for you from goldman sachs which shows what's going on, on delinquencies by income level. you can see the top line is the lowest income level. and we are reaching levels not just prepandemic but higher than that. so that is something to watch. you see that in the top two your tiles of income. overall, it's inevitable the stimulus is going to wear off, it has been, and rates are rising. 8% of credit card balances are

basically in delinquency as of september. that moved up from the prior quarter. in the pandemic, the numbers were like 5%. it's something to watch. is it necessarily screaming recession? no, but it is one worry for 2024 on the strength of the consumer and whether it lasts. >> you mentioned goldman. earlier in the week, they literally had a report titled thankful for a strong consumer. they talked about job gains, real wage growth, they talk about better interest income because rates are elevated, and i know you brought us a chart of household net worth. they argue the ratio of net worth to disposable income is at an all-time high. >> what i have here is from crescent, and this is an age group demographic, guess who has the most net worth? it's boomers. and it's the older cohorts, 65 through 74. and we never had a population, 65 plus, so large relative to the rest of the population or

represent as much spending power as the boomers do. they're also not as sensitive, guys, to job losses, potentially, rate increases, potentially. because of the increase we have seen in things like home prices and the stock market, frankly, this group has done relatively well. so maybe they'll save us from a consumer downturn or recession. >> a lot of money to leave their heirs potentially. >> yeah. >> that figures into some thinking about the future. >> for sure. it also makes the stock market an important barometer for how this net worth shapes up, maybe more so at least for this cohort than student loans still trying to battle this cough, and unemployment and that sort of thing. >> we had meredith whitney on a couple weeks ago, and her long term theory is that the boomer generation is going to downsize. they got $20 trillion in equity in their homes. they're going to pay cash for

something smaller and have money left over to pass along or spend on carnival cruises or something like that. >> no wonder carnival cruises is one of the best stocks of the year, up 60% or more. when you combine the yolo with the older generation having the high net worth, cruises. i think the top three stocks this year are nvidia, meta, and royal caribbean. those are the year to date gainers for you. they have all been up more than 100%. on the plus side, gas prices are coming down and mortgage rates finally are starting to come down. will that stimulate housing? i don't know, we're at a two-month low on 30-year fixed. about 7.4%. >> i looked at my adjustable the other day, actually. >> where are you? >> at 2.35%, something ridiculous. and it's october '26. how am i looking? am i going to be all right? >> so far, you're looking okay. you're on a glide path lower.

no idea what's going to hap in october '26. >> i'm sure a lot of people are taking a look and trying to remember, was it a seven-year or ten-year. >> households and corporates, that's for sure. meantime today, a much shorter term, retail's biggest day of the year, but many getting cautious about consumer spending. courtney reagan joins us from new york. good morning. quite a tradition we got. >> absolutely. i think this is my 13th year doing black friday. at least as a reporter. i used to go out as a shopper all the time. now i have to wait until we're off air for that. walmart's cfo did say he was feeling more cautious about the consumer and said he has seen shoppers respond to deals, these promotional events. the noticeable dropoffs before and after that. these black friday door buster deals do matter and are important even if consumers are remaining resilient. today, the top search for door busters as of the last hour or

so, amazon number one, followed by target, kohl's and walmart. computers, home and kitchen goods, clothing, electronics seeing increases in those categories from last year as well. news from adobe today, total u.s. online thanksgiving sales groying 5.5% to $5.6 billion. that's just a little less than what adobe thought we would see for the day, and for today, black friday, adobe expects online u.s. sales to grow 5.7% to $9.6 billion. so far, barbie, marvel, and holiday decor are among the strongest sellers online and adobe is saying today is the best day out of the next five for you to get a tv. that's good news if you're in the market for that. other good deals this black friday, toys at 28% off for an average discount, followed by apparel, appliances, and sporting goods. those prices are expected to

fall further in the next couple days. do your homework when you're buying in some of these categories. it is interesting that adobe notes its prices it's seen fall online in e-commerce for 14 straight months also down 6% in october versus the year before. so these growth numbers that they're talking about are actually not adjusted for inflation, and if they were, adobe says would be even stronger. something to keep in mind as we have been talking about what it means for the true prices that we're seeing here. i think it's interesting to note that combined in store and online traffic, 72% of americans are expected to shop today in some form. and yes, expected to be the busiest day for foot traffic for retailers, even if black friday does not see those big lines outside and the stampedes of crowds which i actually think is a good thing because we have the opportunity to shop online on different platforms and earlier and after black friday now that things are a little more stretched out. back over to you guys.

>> courtney, thank you. our next guest is expecting an unremarkable shopping season ahead. joining us is michael laser, ubs broad line and hard line retail analyst. here's what i always wonder on black friday, how indicative is the traffic and spending of black friday and thanksgiving weekend of the entire holiday season? >> what it is, is it's highly sensitive to being a false positive indication. the season is long. and the last few weeks immediately prior to christmas are going to be very important. overall, what we're expecting is modest growth this year. but it's going to be very uneven and inconsistent. what's happening is much like many of us are experiencing, a digestion period from yesterday, the consumer is experiencing a digestion period from overconsuming tvs and household appliances and toys from the last few years. plus, they're shifting their spend to experiences. and as a result, we're going to

see more volatility, more unevenness over the next few weeks. >> so in terms of categories, within overall goods, if goods are still less prioritized than experiences, what works? >> what works is beauty, certain areas of the footwear complex, hydration, believe it or not, is going to be in demand. >> that's a category? >> hydro flasks, coolers. >> what stocks do you like on hydration? >> well, dick's sporting goods, another is five below. five below is a teen dollar store that is the right place at the right time given it offers value and experience, inexpensive goods. that's a stock that we like to play the holiday. >> does the old school playbook regarding the discounters start to work again? >> the old school playbook is once you see the eyes of the recession, that's when you want

to move away from the discounters to the more pro-cyclical names. things like a home improvement, home furnishings because at that point, rates are going to start to come down. and the consumer is going to be more incentivized to consume. so we're getting closer to that point where you want to move away. >> what if we don't have a recession? boomers like david who are sitting on his 2% mortgage. >> i knew she would pit it at some point. >> you mentioned your mortgage rate. >> i'm not, that's why i look better, but she likes to say i am. >> my point is it's not necessarily assumed we're going into recession, even if we're slowing. >> it's not, but at some point, rates will come down. that's what will stimulate demand for these bigger ticket purchases that will benefit the likes of home depot, lowe's, best buy, et cetera. at some pointia want to make that pivot.

>> the other big story in retail has been shrink, and sort of inventory management, execution. do you think that's been oversold as a thesis of things that work against these stocks? >> so i don't think it's been oversold. we have been through quite a dramatic period for retail in the last four years. and shrink is one of the lagging indicators of that period. it's also proven to be cyclical over time. i think you're going to want to be long retailers who benefit from shrink coming down, target is a name that stands to be significant beneficiary of shrink getting better as we get into 2024. >> all right, michael, thank you. i know you have a buy on target and walmart and costco. appreciate it. let's turn to nvidia. the shares under some pressure following a report that it is delaying its china ai chip designs. let's get to kristina partsinevelos for the details

here. >> well, the commerce department expanded its export restrictions to china for a second time thib past october. they have been working on compliant ai chips, but reuters says some of the chips will be launched only in q1 of next year after semi analysis reported these chips would have been launched on november 16th, so a delay. shares falling, they were down about 2%, regaining some of that loss. but this reuters report shouldn't be taken as anything new. on wednesday, i reported that invideo management had warned these chips would be coming in the next few months. nvidia's cfo said on the earnings call they're working on chips compliant with u.s. rules and do not require a license. quote, these products, they may become available in the next coming months. however, we don't expect their contribution to be material or meaningful as a percentage of the revenue in q4. again, this was said on tuesday evening. they also warned the export

restrictions would have a significant impact on q4 revenues. china contributes 20% to 24% to the revenues, the bread and butter of nvidia's business which contributes 80% of total sales. investors sold off shares earlier this week on concerns nvidia wouldn't be able to keep up its growth rate and guidance beats without a huge customer like china. you can see shares drop off tuesday into wednesday as well. web bush writing it's not impactful to near term revenues, this delay, but over the intermediate term, it could be impactful in figuring out when revenues peak for nvidia. >> that continues to be the real keel question. if ai demand continues at pace or continues to grow at rates that are enormous, this company is going to be fine with or without sort of this lower end concern about china, right? >> precisely, fine for the next several years until hyperscalers come in and compete, or if you

take the bear thesis, we're going to hit this ai peak soon, many companies aren't changing their ai chips into incremental revenue. it's been a sunk cost for a lot of them and not leading to added productivity and revenues. >> thank you. kristina partsinevelos. as we head to a break here, let's give you a road map for the rest of the hour. what is at stake for apple and amazon this holiday shopping season? plus, more americans are turning to social media to do their holiday shopping this year with nearly half of gen z planning to shop on tiktok or sgraum. we'll tell you which companies are best positioned. >> if you're headed to the mall, the ceo of charter holdings will tell us what he sees.

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influencers but also the power of ai to create and target ads. and os, it's a test of amazon. amazon is now partnered with pinterest, meta, and snap, so shoppers can buy directly from amazon ads within those apps by logging in to their amazon prime account. this is designed to keep users engaged rather than swiping elsewhere while making it seizure for amazon ads to drive purchases cs which could increa amazon ads. meta is also offering its new ai tools to optimize ad buying and targeting while its testing its generative ai tools to create ads to figure out how to roll them out broadly next year. tiktok is taking a totally different approach. instead of partnering with amazon, it launched a tiktok shop in september with 200,000 merchants. consumers can make purchases directly on the tiktok platform.

while other social platforms are focused on the ad business, tiktok is trying to build up a meaningful e-commerce business. one thing is for sure, social media will have its biggest impact ever on shopping this holiday season. social media advertising is projected to drive ten times more online shopping visits this holiday season than traditional marketing, according to insider intelligence. and ai is really helping out here. personalized customer service and marketing promotions powered by ai are projected to drive nearly $200 billion in spending. david. >> julia, thank you. our next guest saying some of the big technology retailers such as amazon are benefitting already from those very deals that julia was reporting on. why don't we start there, barton. the idea of these third party retail services, what has amazon

told us so far in terms of the success they're seeing with this click through? >> well, amazon hasn't told us a ton. we do cover pinterest, which was early on and i think is very well exposed given their focus on kind of e-commerce as a core part of their content. and they have been very kind of optimistic. again, not a lot of numbers, but i think this is a great theme. we're recommending amazon, we're recommending pinterest. and this is part of that theme. certainly, for amazon, their real strengths in recent quarters have been addver tizing and third party service. those growing 26% and 20% roughly year over year in the third quarter. these type of arrangements i think hold the possibility for certainly the third party services and maybe even the advertising some acceleration in those great revenue lines for amazon. >> and large margin businesses here, i mean, advertising alone,

just to put a point on it, correct? >> yeah, i mean, certainly, third party services, there's a lot of logistics which is part of amazon's part of their advantage. but this does appear to be -- have great margin attributes. certainly the advertising that is transactional, not tied to a big content spend like a football game, you love to see that. amazon has certainly found religion, new execution on margin which has been a great part of the story, and one of the things we also like at this juncture. >> how long has instagram, meta, been trying to make social shopping a thing? it's not new that they had these aspirations and been trying to do this. we have links which even if the ads are very successful, how much does instagram or meta itself benefit? >> i think instagram and meta are part of this kind of cultural change, which is people are surfing online, looking for

social recommendations, social input into their e-commerce. what amazon brings to the table with these deals is deep integration. you can actually complete the transaction within the site through a retailer that you're probably using already and probably very comfortable with. so that's a very powerful kind of extension of what has been kind of influencer driven before, now you can actually do the transaction and tick off your holiday shopping list. that's a great change, i think, for this holiday season. >> barton, while we have you, we had a discussion earlier this morning about some of the labor disputes in media that are now out of the way. theatrical distribution can be promoted with full force. going into year end and q1, whether you want to have some of the legacy media names or netflix or what are some of your preferences? >> i think the end of the strike lets everyone get back to business. it does mean they're going to be spending on production. the difficulty for the legacy media companies is what we're talking about right here, which

is the effectiveness of other forms of advertising. the ad environment was really subpar in the third quarter and looked pretty difficult into the fourth quarter for the big tv media companies. and part of that we think is people taking advertisers taking budget from tv and putting it into social commerce, putting it into e-commerce driven formats. and that's a difficult tide to swim against. so certainly, you're going to see, you know, someone like netflix benefit from the production cycle ramping up. they weren't really hurt, but on a relative basis, you want to see them come out with new shows to drive that subscriber line. and over time, hopefully bdisne benefits. there's a lot of things to fight through that are seculare challenging in that group. >> to return to amazon, got a football game on today. first time they have done that on a friday. you know, there are a certain number of their investor base

that is frustrated with how much they spend on entertainment and sports rights and whether or not it's worth it, whether it results in more prime membership or somehow makes it stickier. how do you sort of view that, particularly in light of the in-game deals apparently they're going to be offering today? >> well, look, i think that amazon is playing a different game. they're showing the same game, which is football, but they're playing it differently by monetizing through prime membership, monetizing through ads you can look at and interact within an e-commerce transaction that does not happen on tv. they don't give us a lot of incremental detail. they're spending essentially twice what fox was paying for football rights where they don't have retransmission fees to support it. it's a head scratcher, yet their commentary is positive about the value, the innovation is great, the talk around the leagues in terms of bringing in a younger consumer, and the tone around innovation is encouraging.

so at this point, i think you have to give them some benefit of the doubt that they're on to something here that's really powerful and probably generationally flows towards them. if they can make thursday night football work where fox couldn't, then lights out. sports is going to the big platforms like amazon, and it's going to be very challenging for the tv guys to compete. >> another important issue. we discuss a lot with the nba coming up as well. barton, appreciate it. >> thank you. a cease-fire begins as part of a hostage release deal with hamas. thgrndorou on e ou f y from tel aviv next.

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drizly! stock up today, sip well, tomorrow. drizly. . hamas has released the first group of hostages under that gaza cease-fire deal. erin mclaughlin is live in tel aviv with the latest. hi, erin. >> reporter: hi, carl. that's right. the thai prime minister announcing a group of 12 thai hostages had been released today. we are still waiting for word from the israeli government in terms of the 13 hostages,

israeli men and women, that were expected to be released today as part of this deal, but many here in israel are looking at the release of these 12 thai hostages, all thought to be workers on farms in israel when they were taken by hamas on october 7th. at least here in israel, they're looking at that as a positive sign, as we wait for final confirmation that the 13 israeli hostages have in fact crossed over into egypt. now, an israeli official tells me when they do cross the border they will immediately be handed over to specialized israeli military personnel. they will undergoing an identification process as well as a medical evaluation. and then from there, be able to call their loved ones via a video link. once that call is done, the first phone call that will have taken place in 49 days they will be evacuated to five hospitals

in israel where they will be reunited with loved ones. that is the expectation but we're waiting, again, for official word that this release has in fact happened sara. >> all right, everyone is holding their breath. thank you very much, erin. please keep up posted. erin mclaughlin in tel aviv. major averages on pace for their fourth straight winning week. is the santa claus rally under way? we're going to discuss that seasonal factor next. we see mils of cyber threats each year. that rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business. knock, knock. number one broker here for the number one hit maker.

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about an hour into the trading day, with markets a little changed. we're still headed for an up week. 1% for the s&p. let's get to kristina partsinevelos taking a closer look at some of the big movers today. >> i found it fitting or maybe cruel of me to focus on the health care sector after holiday feasting. it's still in the red on the year, down about 4%. you can see 3.5% year to date.

although seeing a rebound this week, up over 2%. driven by names like align technology, moderna, but when you can see all of them in the green, but when you zoom out on a six-month basis, look at that, they're down double digits. moderna, almost 39%. it's not the case for eli lilly. soaring about 64% this year on the weight loss drug trend. the stock is only about 5% off its most recent high and gained fda approval for a new anti-obesity medication. shares up a little over 1% right now. but competitor novanortis gaining steam, up almost 2% at the moment. you can also see almost 4% this week alone. and it's just a few cents away from its all-time high. the company announcing just yesterday it would spend over $2 billion to expand a production facility in france. this comes after announcing another $6 billion to expand a

denmark. the company also predicting a shortage of the weight loss drug would continue throughout 2024 and that's forcing them to actually ration ozempic starting kits in europe. goldman sachs on a whole basis is predicting the weight loss drug market will soar to $100 billion by 2030, up from $6 billion currently. sara. carl. >> thank you. kristina partsinevelos. meantime, the major indices are on pace for four straight winning weeks. ubs financial services director of floor operations joins us today on the cnbc news line. art, i hope the holiday was great and you're in for a fun weekend. a lot of discussion today about november, up almost 9%. is that about unwinding how rough september and october were, or is there something else at work? >> well, i think that's a bit in line with the unwinding theory, carl, but the other part is we have had a kind of lift in spirits. you can see that the tone of

many of the commentators who were getting more and more bearish are stepping back from that. we're seeing some people doing year end and year ahead estimates, and they are a bit more optimistic. and thirdly, and not necessarily lastly, we're closing out the earnings picture, and there again, the expected lowering of earnings estimates have not been as drastic as thought. so we're getting a little help from that, and the carry over seasonality. >> the market right now at least is devoid of any meaningful catalysts. when does that change? >> well, it's very difficult -- this season of the year with the holidays and whatever, sara mentioned earlier, the santa claus rally.

years ago, the santa claus rally began after christmas. and then each year it got pulled forward by the gurus and the pundits. and now we're talking right after thanksgiving, the santa claus rally is looming. it's a little early for it in a more short term perspective. today, i think we have a tug of war between short term seasonality, and that is a mild upward bias the day after thanksgiving, and the fact that the yields are inching up higher. so that's pulling against the bulls and the seasonality or the cyclicality are giving them a boost. so we'll see who wins out. i always favor the cyclicality. they talk about things like muscle memory and it goes on. then we have all these mysteries to look at. you have the open ai with nobody on the board claiming any

resolution, many of the guys on the floor think maybe it was the artificial intelligence itself when asked what should we do with the company, they said fire the chairman, and that's how that wound up. otherwise, it doesn't seem to be an explanation for it. >> yeah, curious one, art. so you always say watch yields, and that's been the story. we have seen this big move lower on yields on expectation the fed is done raising rates. the next move is going to be a cut, the market is going to get excited about a cut. i wonder if there's a risk here that the market is too excited, if the fed officials start to push back on that in the coming weeks, if we start to get inflationary numbers that aren't showing enough progress down to 2%, or do you think this time is different? because in the past, in the battle between the fed and the market in the cycle, the fed has been right. >> well, i think that the fed officials don't necessarily want

to play grinch, but they are being bothered by the fact that the market is getting more optimistic. the market observers are saying things like, well, they're pretty well done. you see that in the projection of expectations. so it's there. i would be a little careful here. i would watch that yield on the ten-year, if it starts to move up above 4.5%, above 4.55%, that will raise a question as to whether you're going to have maybe an attempt to check out the former highs. not all the way up to 5%. a little too early for that, but if you start to move above 4 4.55%, i think you get a little rethink, not only from the bonds but they may put a little mild pressure on equities. i would watch that. we may get another retest of the

higher level yields while all that fed is going on. >> finally, art, we mentioned earlier this morning quite a bit of geopaolitics in the mix, not just israel/hamas, but argentina, the netherlands. i wonder how you think that squares with the vix below 13 and whether or not you agree in the words of somebody today, that's absurdly low. >> well, it's not a bad phrase, i'm afraid. it's remarkable for what's going on geopolitically, and it seems like there is no sense of caution here. and we'll have to check it out. i always like to check out the near term vix and then take a look at where it is several months and maybe even a year out. and see the differential. i'm going to keep an eye on that and see if it begins to pop up. i think you are seeing a bit of right-wing populism showing up

in country after country. and that may have more than a narrow impact on the whole financial picture, not just on the stock market. so it is worthy of constant attention, carl, and it wouldn't be the first time in history that the vix has fooled us. people have gotten a little overcomplacent more times than not, but then again, that's what keeps me in business. >> well, we're thankful for every hit, believe me, art. hope you have a good weekend. let's get a news update. for that, we go to bertha coombs for the latest. >> hey, david. thanks very much. here's what's happening at this hour. police evacuated black friday shoppers at one of the biggest malls in america this morning. authorities say they received a bomb threat at the american dream mall in new jersey. state police reopened the mall about an hour later. new jersey's governor says the

matter is under investigation. oscar pistorius will be released from prison in january. 11 years after murdering his girlfriend in south africa. the double amputee sprinter won his case at a parole board hearing today. he was sentenced to spend 13 years in prison for the 2013 valentine's day shooting. >> finland has temporarily closed all but eight of its passenger crossings to russia, as the country claims moscow is funneling migrants to the border. the kremlin has denied that charge, but finland says more than 700 migrants have entered into the country from russia in just the past couple weeks. back over to you guys. >> bertha, thank you. still ahead, retailers are issuing tough guidance so far, expecting a spending slowdown, we'll discuss that with one mall owner and of course what he is seeing on the ground, and as we

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the street." according to recent data from the nrf, u.s. shoppers are expected to spend $875 this holiday season, up more than $40 from last year. retailers are still issuing pretty cautious guidance. joining me is mall owner ray washburn, charter holdings ceo, also the chairman of sunoco. good to have you back on. remind us where in the country your malls are, and what you're seeing right now. >> sure, thank you for having me on. our shopping, we have luxury shopping centers in dallas, charlton, north carolina, aspen,

wikiki beach, and so we're spread across the country. we have a pretty good observation as to what the consumer is doing. >> and what are they doing? hue much are they spending relative to previous years? >> this is the fourth year i have been on a black friday, and this is the most pessimistic we have been. neiman marcus announced yesterday their sales last quarter were down 8%. we're hearing that from luxury retailers, a lot that were expecting to grow stores next year in 2024 had to push their growth back to '25 and '26 because their consumer is really starting to soften. we also have a very large restaurant portfolio. we had negative same-store guest counts since the beginning of the year, so we really see people tap the brakes on spending, especially on luxury stuff. >> ray, it's david. just to reiterate, your malls are high-end malls in some of the wealthiest communities in the country. during what seems to be a pretty

strong economy. so i'm curious as to what you think is going on here, particularly amongst those who would seem to still have a good amount of disposable income to spend here. >> well, a lot of the sales spike they got during the pandemic was from things like buying from purses, belts, all types of accessories. a lot of that came from stimulus checks and they were the nontraditional luxury buyer. you go into the stores and say who are these buyers. they were people who weren't typically there. a lot of sales loss they had hadn't been so much from the luxury buyer that is the traditional buyer but more from people who had come in for the first time to buy and that spiked their sales and threw things out of kilter a little bit. that was that government money that came in that people decided to spend on luxury items. you're still seeing strong growth in accessories. the softness is really coming from the dresses and a little bit higher end things they have got. in addition to that, the supply chain has pretty much smoothed

out. they're not having problem getting product in stores like they were having. so they have got product to sell, just the consumer numbers of people coming in to spend money has softened a lot. we have seen that, like i said, everywhere from aspen to dallas, charlotte, and as you said, in neighborhoods that normally hadn't seen that in a long time. >> interesting, ray. it's carl. on commercial real estate, morgan stanley had a report earlier in the week titled commercial real estate, price decline is progressing better than our expectation. i wonder if you think that's true or if it's just elongating what's going to be the inevitable. >> we're out -- actually, we're purchasing some shopping centers today, and what you're seeing is these mortgage rates have just absolutely hammered people. anyone with debt, it's true, people are starting to throw their keys back. you'll see a big acceleration of

commercial properties being thrown back to lenders. and the old saying that lenders don't want the keys back, they're setting up programs to try to partner up with other developers. but next year is not going to be a good year. another data point, we just opened a restaurant in houston last week, we had -- we were i'm sorry, 85 positions. we had 700 people apply for jobs. so, i think this entire unemployment rate is a big misnomer. i think it's worse than people are making it out to be. >> what happens to your properties and your restaurants in a recession usually? >> well, a lot of it is, what kind of debt you have. fortunately we have low fixed rate debt. that goes seven, eight years out. we're fine for the next three to five years. but anyone with debt that is coming due early next year, they're the ones that are going to have the massive problems. you're seeing debt rates -- a lot of our mortgages are 2.5% to 3%. like david's mortgage on his

house. if you're around 2.5%, to 3%, you're fine. people rolling from that up to 8%, 9%, the regional banks aren't doing loans anymore. the loan window is shut on new real estate loans and the rates that are getting renewed on people that keep on the adjustable rates are doubling and tripling them. that's where you'll see the hammer hit next year. as far as the restaurants go, our customer accounts are steady. we raise prices the entire casual dining sector over 20% in the last two years. commodity prices have flattened out, except for meat. next year if it's cheese or avocados or chicken, things are pretty flat looking into next year. we're okay there. and labor costs have gone up about 3%. we see that flattening out because we have had zero issue hiring. i have over 3,000 employees in our restaurant. >> it's a nice tradition to have

you on black friday, even if the news this year isn't that great. appreciate it. ray washington from charter holding. coming up in the next hour, we'll continue the retail conversation with the ceo of tanger. that begins in about nine minutes. icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot. fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you.

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if you're dreaming of a wine christmas, you better act fast. brandon gomez joins us to talk about wine-themed advent calendar selling out fast. >> it's picking up. a holiday classic getting the boodzy adult twist. you can see that it's not just wine. it's beer and spirits as well. they're not priced the same as your kids' $20 chocolate or toy-filled calendars. on the high end direct-to-consumer vine box selling their advent calendar for $200. direct wine at midrange of $150, some 12-day beer and spirits calendars popular, too. williams sonoma premade cocktail calendar will cost you $145.

shoppers are spending the money. costco and discount supermarket aldi annually selling out of their calendars. aldi telling me it already sold over 90% of its advent calendar stock this year after going on sale november 1st. it's a buzzy gift. pun, of course, intended. it's also smart for retailers. encouraging shoppers to spend more money, giving them sample size products that might push them to buy the full bottle of wine. interesting while companies like constellation brands told us this quarter that wine has had mixed sales performance. growth in some premium brands. sara, shoppers might be a bit more cost conscious this holiday season, but not when it comes to booze, it seems. >> how did this -- advent calendars started as a religious tradition. how did this transfer into -- >> it's a great marketing ploy. it's an opportunity to give you that little bottle of wine to say, i like that one.

maybe i want to buy the full size bottle. it's a real cash grab at the end of the year. >> thank you. the s&p is flat. i would note that mega cap tech, namely what we like to call the magnificent seven is down almost across the board other than tesla. you can see that's reflected in our magnificent seven index. of course, also in the nasdaq, which is down roughly a third of 1%. a lot more eyes on the markets, both equity and credit as "squawk on the street" continues right after this.

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ends cyber monday. only at sleep number welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla at the new york stock exchange. the ceo of tenure joins us. he'll give us a real-time look at the state of the consumer. >> the setup for retail names, the names to buy, the names to avoid as the crucial holiday shopping period does kick off. >> with the s&p near a four-month high, will the bullish narrative continue to year-end? we'll ask yurrien timmer. november