ends cyber monday. only at sleep number welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla at the new york stock exchange. the ceo of tenure joins us. he'll give us a real-time look at the state of the consumer. >> the setup for retail names, the names to buy, the names to avoid as the crucial holiday shopping period does kick off. >> with the s&p near a four-month high, will the bullish narrative continue to year-end? we'll ask yurrien timmer. november gains getting close

to the 9% level but today it's not tech that's leading. it's more like energy and financials and industrials as we do have the dow beating the nasdaq at the moment. and yields a little elevated. >> this rally is broadening out. the only sectors down are communications services. magnificent seven underperforming, led by apple, nvidia and google. tesla is up today. and now you've got consumer discretionary as well. it is retail's biggest day of the year, but will all the foot traffic translate into sales. our courtney reagan joins us from the palisades in west nyack. courtney? >> reporter: good morning, sara. the traffic here is definitely picking up. a lot of folks at the starbucks to my right. that's a big draw in this area. we are getting some information online. the top search for door buster deals, amazon, target, kohl's

and walmart. within that number one, amazon, the top trending amazon categories that are being searched for are devices and ac acces accessories, office products and books. here's a look, a live look at retail traffic on shopify merchants around the world. people shop all around the world this time of year for christmas. right now the average u.s. order is about $119.30, for the full day on thanksgiving day for shopify merchants. adobe suggests they will grow 5.7 to hit $9.6 billion. total online thanksgiving day sales grew a little less than that when you're talking about the rate at 5.5% at $5.6 billion for the full day. even with the spending being spread out between thanksgiving and cyber monday, whether online or in store, it is expected to be the busiestest day of the

year for foot traffic. a great question at the top, will that translate to sales? we'll have to wait and see. deb has been doing this for 20 years and she went to a target in massachusetts today. she said she was the first one in the store. there were people waiting. in their cars, not in line. she said it was kind of a mess. there was trash everywhere. she talked to associates and said they spent many overnight hours fulfilling online orders. it remains to be seen how that experience will shape up for the rest of the day. that location for the other shopper. she said at walmart she saw huge integration between digital and physical. she seamless. she did have to agree to be tracked on her phone with her wi-fi. she said she was freaked out in the beginning but at the end it was a great experience and she called the walmart employees joyful. she said some of the happiest retail employees she's seen in a while. a lot of interesting observations coming in from

around the quunt. the day is young. it's just 11:00 a.m. it's amazing how much more we have to do. we could see over $130 billion spent between thanksgiving and cyber monday here in the u.s. we are off to the races. back over to you guys. >> i'm looking at the xrt, which you know well, the retail etf. it's up a little bit this year, 5% or so. it's down over the past year. what is the market baking in as far as expectations for today and the holiday season and into next year? >> it's such a great question. it seems everyone thinks for the most part the holiday season will be good. i think there's hesitation to call it great. no one thinks it will be super weak. i think that's a lot of what we heard from the retailers. all of them reporting in the last seven to ten days had -- not all but most had pretty good third quarter results. when it came to this quarter and encompassing the holiday season, executives were much more

conservative within their forecast and what they were seeing. talking about spikes at time with promotional events and discount events but drop-offs before and after, making it a little uneven. it is the longest calendar between thanksgiving and christmas because of the way thanksgiving fell so early. that is beneficial for retailers. macy's ceo pointed that out to me specifically. >> thank you for the report from west nyack at the mall. our next guest expects consumers to jump more from experiences and services from goods but says there is growth for retailers who are innovating. joining us is dana telsey. >> great to be here with you. >> the experiences and essentials we've covered, but i'm more interested in who's innovating right now with retail. you really are starting to see a gap between the winners and the losers. >> you are. you look at who is driving innovation, ralph lauren, seeing an average unit retail selling price of 10% globally, even up

mid single digits in u.s. department stores. that's a good number. take a look at abercrombie. not only is the brand redone but look at hollister, two months of sequential growth. with deckers with uggs and hoka. there's newness out there. you have to find it. with value, it's about tjx and the off-pricers. already delivered same store sales of 5%. they're getting the benefit of the trade down. >> it's not a matter with those names of the luxury consumer is holding up or the teen retailer is holding up. these brands are hitting the mark when it comes to fashion trends? >> what are they doing in terms of new because people don't want the same old same old. if you're getting same old, same old, you're competing to price. it's tough to compete on price especially when the consumer at the lower to middle. >> what do you think explains

the structural blowups, the vp corps, the estee lauder, are they all execution stories? >> i think so. estee lauder is asia and china. you take a look at the vans. vans was a big contributor to vf. they didn't innovate. you have a new ceo in place and that needs to be top of mind. >> do you believe that inventory is net-net across the space a positive going into holiday? >> it is. inventory is clean. supply chains are normalized. you can chase into demand. keep in mind, the promotions that are out there now, 30% to 40%, those are ho-hum. they're the same type of promotions we would have got a couple of years ago. >> what's impressive from a consumer standpoint? >> i think from the consumer standpoint, being out and being together. i think getting an experience that makes them exciting and looking forward to something.

that will drive things. also don't forget, you have a consumer that can wait this year. with christmas on a monday, like courtney said, procrastinators can wait all they want. >> but a lot of these themes, i feel like, have been appreciated by the market. carnival and royal caribbean are soaring this year. even abercrombie has been a huge winner this year. is there anything you think is not -- where there's deep value not being appreciated? >> what could be the surprises of 2024? could it be a steve madden where all of a sudden the ability to chase and trend-right product and they're getting greater demand. you could see some interesting things there. you take a look at some of the other names out there, like what we're watching, look at urban outfitters. whether it's the free people business or even the anthropologie business, there's some newness there. >> but the brand didn't do it. the main urban outfitters. >> it's 25% of the business. it will be interesting to see if the positive comp at old navy for the first time in two years, if that can continue.

that would certainly be watched very carefully. >> i was going to ask you if you were impressed with gap? >> the old navy number was impressive. even if it's a positive 1%, it can move the needle if it continues to build momentum. >> is there something in gap and abercrombie, old '90s legends getting resuscitated from a brand standpoint? >> i think with old navy, it's the price point. it's the price point attracting people and getting a bigger share of the tradedown. with some of the others out there, you're seeing the newness matters. with abercrombie, she captured data, a 20 to 45-year-old instead of just the teen. >> fran horowitz was on the show on earnings this week. what about the department stores, you stay away from all of them? >> macy's is doing interesting things. you look at what macy's is doing. i was there this morning, there's traffic there this morning. i think they're doing well online. they're doing more with their own brands and bringing in new brands. >> when do they grow again?

>> 2024, back half of the year would be the most time frame. i think what tom kingsbury is doing at kohl's needs to be watched. i worry about nordstrom, not just the rack business, you need to grow the full line. >> we talked about the discounters. what the moment is, the magic moment before their model starts to pop, do we have to wait until a recession is right in our face? >> i think you're seeing a pop right now. you look at walmart. walmart is getting traffic, transactions, gaining share. >> what about dg and dollar tree? >> you'll hear from them next we're. those are more circumspect than the big discounters. >> what is your baseline assumption for consumer spending next year? >> i think it's going to be low single digits. is it a 2% to 3% increase at best? >> less than 2023 but not cratering? >> exactly. i think you'll be positive but low single digits. >> all right, dana, thank you. good to have you here on a black

friday. you can get back to the -- >> the stores, that's where i'm going next, new jersey. >> okay. >> thank you, dana telsey. fidelity jurrien timmer is going to join us, why he's bullish on financials and energy. plus, we've got much more on retail and the state of the consumer. the ceo of tanger will join us to break down his expectations for the holiday season. we'll be right back. power e*trade's award-winning

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down 1%. in the red following reports the company saw declines after china's singles day shopping event. apple smartphone sales declined 4% over that two-week period. underperforming huawei and

xiaomi. pe are seeing weakness across the board. alphabet, meta, nvidia, amazon, all underselling. >> interesting some of the sale side research -- dan ives arguing the demand in china remains solid. >> and it's coming from a third-party source. no comment from apple. it's a good point. we often get these measures of demands. meantime, when it comes to what's next for your portfolio, the next guest sees the market broadening out in '24, sticking with his soft landing thesis, saying the pace of rate cuts might actually end up being slower and into '24. joining us is injure jurrien ti. good to see you. looking over your notes, you say the fed is likely done, very few signs of imminent danger. can it be this perfect? >> well, i mean, it has been -- it has been certainly a soft landing so far.

maybe that's -- the time i say that right before the anvil hits like in the old cartoons. the economy has been resilient. there's no way around drawing that conclusion. of course, a year ago we were all fretting about the yield curve. i don't want to dismiss the yield curve as an important indicator. it is, of course. there are legitimate reasons why the economy has been resilient. i think the consumer is front and center. the consumer is employed, wage gains are keeping up with inflation now. debt levels are manageable. consumer debt peak in the financial crisis and has been moderating as a percent of gdp. and so this is a pretty good story. i've been on six airplanes in the last nine days. they're all still full. everything is busy. so i think the economy has been, to some degree, immune to

interest rate hikes. now we're at a point where the fed has gone 500 plus basis points in a pretty much record amount of time. and inflation is comingdown. certainly not to the levels the fed would like. headline cpi from 9 to 3, good. core cpi, core cpe in the high 3s. the fed is legit restrictive. well above the inflation rate no matter how you slice that. the prospect of at some point the fed giving back a few of those hikes the way alan greenspan did in 1995, i think, is a plausible scenario. maybe not for 2024. the market may still be ahead of itself there. if the fed can give back some without the economy going into recession, then by definition it will be a soft landing. >> the market obviously has been very narrow, as we all know. it's been the magnificent seven.

that's not just the story for this year or since covid. it's been a story for the past nine years. we've had this completely one-sided leadership of what i call the nifty 50. it's more like the nifty ten. everything else has been left behind. non-u.s. stocks, value, small caps and so a lot of those stocks have not participated. there are two ways this could happen. in 2024 ends up the year of the recession and you get one more lurch down, yeah, that's not going to happen until after that is over and the fed starts to cut rates, et cetera, typical cycle. the more optimistic glass half full scenario is the emergency is over in terms of the fed rating in rates to tame inflation. and then the market can broaden. if you look at a longer term chart of the sbw, the equal weighted s&p 500, a very good

proxy to follow, it's the same s&p we all know but you have this long uptrend line and these stair step pattern of big advances and then like eternal side ways consolidations. we had one for 20 months in 2015, '14, '16, another one in 2018. remember that whole period. now we've had one for 22 months. but ultimately those holding patterns give way to the rising trend lines. at least they have so far. that's what i'm betting on, the market will broaden. you have stocks like dividend paying value stocks that no one has wanted to touch. they're still sitting at the lows of this bear market cycle. they're offering a yield of 5.4%, dividend yield. competitive with bonds. so there are a lot of areas where you can look for stocks that haven't really joined the

party yet and might in a soft landing scenario. >> we're looking at some of your favorites there, looking at financials. do you think that is counting on capital markets activity rebounding, ipos, m&a and the like? >> it's part of it. financials need the fed to get out of the way. we know about the stories of the silicon valley bank back in march. rising rates have an impact on the financial system and on banks in particular. their net interest margins come under pressure, maybe their portfolios come under pressure. again, i don't expect the fed to ease any time soon. i think if the fed is done tightening, which is becoming a consensus now, and if the fed at some point does start giving back a few of those rate hikes. if we think about neutral policy, 1% plus 3% inflation. i think 3 is the new 2, then you have a 4% neutral rate. if the fed in the next year,

year and a half goes from 5.5% back to 4%, i think the banks will like that a lot because it will ease some pressure on their performance. and in the meantime, they're sporting really good yields. they're cheap. they're cheap for a reason but they're cheap. >> jurrien, that was a great check-in. hope you enjoy the weekend. talk soon. coming up, germany post negative gdp. ecb president lagarde warns against an early victory on inflation and a shocking election in the netherlands. we'll get the outlook for europe heading into 2024. competition in china is ramping up. we'll discuss which names are set for rapid growth when we are back in a moment. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, unlocking the power of thinkorswim, the award-winning trading platforms. bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical studies. tailor the platforms to your unique

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hamas is beginning to release hostages as part of a cease-fire deal with israel. erin mclaughlin joins us from tel aviv with the latest. what do we know? >> reporter: this exchange appears to have been successfully completed. a qatari official just confirming 39 palestinians, women and teenagers, have now been released from an israeli prison, completing this deal. this following confirmation that 25 hostages have crossed into egypt, including 12 thai hostages per the thai prime minister and 13 israeli hostages

per the israeli military. we have clarity from the prime minister's office with israeli hostages, in particular. according to the prime minister's office, the exchange happened around 5:30 a.m. that's when israeli hostages were moved to the red cross. and now we saw these remarkable images showing the red cross ambulances crossing into rafah, egypt. according to israeli officials, there's a whole process that now needs to happen. hostages, 13 of them thought to be women and children, will be identified by the israeli military specialists. they will undergo medical evaluation. from there be allowed to talk to their loved ones for the very first time in some 49 days. once that phone call happens, they'll be flown to five different medical facilities in israel. they will be reunited in person with their family members. while this is just a small

fraction of the hostages currently being held, it is nevertheless a symbol of hope to so many other families. they look at this as very much a proof of concept. and now looking forward to what could potentially happen in terms of a release tomorrow. guys? >> and proof of life. importantly, erin. so, what do we know about other potential hostages? wasn't there a part of this deal where the cease-fire goes longer if hamas releases more? >> well, the current deal is for at least four days. weknow 13 israeli hostages were released today under the parameters of the deal. we don't know how many will be released tomorrow, the next day or the next day. all of that has yet to be divulged. we know it is at minimum a four-day cease-fire. after that each subsequent day for every ten hostages hamas releases per this deal, there

will be another day of that temporary cease-fire, really seen as a life line to the civilians in gaza. we've seen a number of aid trucks pouring across the border. 80 humanitarian trucks. also trucks of fuel, four fuel trucks, four trucks with cooking oil. the bare necessities humanitarian organizations have been screaming for in gaza. all of that is happening. again, this is a very fragile cease-fire. it's a tense situation. tonight at least there is hope with this release that there will be subsequent releases and additional pauses in the fighting. >> we hope. thank you very much. erin mclaughlin in tel aviv tonight. time for a news update. contessa brewer has that for us. >> police identified the two people killed in a crash at the u.s. and canadian border wednesday. they're a couple from a nearby town in new york.

authorities say the driver may have suffered a medical emergency or, perhaps, it was a mechanical issue that sent that car airborne near the rainbow bridge border. the car exploded and it burst into flames. ireland's prime minister is condemning anti-immigrant protesters who led riots through central dublin following the stabbing of three young children. the violence started after rumors circulated that a nationalist was behind the school attack. police arrested 34 people in that yea yos. they say as many as 500 people looted shops, set fires and threw rocks at officers. and people who signed up for a cruise around the world that was supposed to last three years are having to make new plans. life at sea cruises canceled its inaugural voyage after initially postponing its departure from turkey. the problem, the company told cruise industry news it never actually acquired the ship because of challenges from,

quote, unquote, investor withdrawal. that is a pretty big failure to launch. sara, carl? >> that's a commitment, con it contessa, for sure. coming up after the break, the ceo of tanger is with us. we'll get his state of the consumer and foot traffic as we kick off the holiday shopping season. (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪)

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watching nvidia today. stock's lower following reports that the company is delaying its new a.i. chip for the chinese market. the delay is due to issues from manufacturers. cnbc has reached out to nvidia for comment but has not heard back. the report was that this new

chip that would help work around some of the export restrictions from the u.s. government would be ready in november. now not till first quarter 2024. which was alluded to on the conference call earlier this week. >> not the h200. the h20. meantime, turning back to retail, the holiday shopping season is well under way. 182 million shoppers projected to look for deals this weekend. our next guest runs some 38 properties, including the one you're looking at right now. this is the tanger outlet in deer park, new york, joining us as the ceo of tanger stephen yalof is joining us. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> i imagine you're getting updates as we speak. what's the picture? >> parking lots are filling up. pretty amazing. the weather has been great across the country. and our shopping centers, particularly on the east coast, we're watching folks come in early this morning. we opened our doors at 6:00 with

door busters. that's where -- that's products supported by the retailers in our shopping centers, getting extra value and extra gifts to the customers in order to get them to come in a little earlier. >> is it encouraging it's a longer season this year? >> sure. it's funny, the holiday shopping season officially starts after halloween. november 1st we see christmas decorations going up and people have extended the holiday shopping season really at the beginning of november. it will extend a little later this year, too. >> what is a door buster these days? >> it depends on the brand. we have some giving gift cards to stores, others giving tote bags. some of them are giving two for one offers. if you go and buy something, you can buy another one for a much cheaper price. it's great for the retailers because they get to clear a lot more inventory that way. >> outlet is lower price than going to a regular retail store. the regular retail stores are very promotional this season. how does it affect your traffic

and the appeal of going to outlets? >> i think, first of all, there's an aspirational customer that shops our channel. they may not shop bricks and mortar or any other because they are used to getting the brands they love value pricing. what's particular around the holiday shopping center are the added discounts retailers are getting to stimulate the customers coming into the shopping centers. that's what we've been seeing. and you couple that with the tanger club, which gives additional value to our loyal customers. so, if you put all those and stack those discounts and offerings together, it's a great value for the consumer. >> we've been talking a lot of retail after the earnings came out the last few weeks. one narrative is the inventory -- does it mean it's going to be harder to find your size or selection? does that mean you need to shop earlier? >> i think there's a lot of brands. look, i encourage everyone to shop early. the 2021 narrative was if you want it, come in and buy it.

i still think the customer has that in the back of their mind. inventory levels have been very good. outlet being an important part of the ecosystem for a lot of retail brands that are in our shopping centers. they plan. they build and they stock and they merchandise their stores just for this time because they know how important it is to the consumer and how important it is to those retail chains. >> so, in new outlets, and you've done acquisition lately, who are coming in as the anchor tenants and how has it changed? >> yeah. we've seen a bit of an evolution. one we're forcing ourselves. we think post-covid the consumers are shopping much differently. they are looking for more experience, things to do. it's not just a shopping experience. they want to stay for lunch, they want to gather, they want to meet their friends. we're doing much better programming on center, a lot of local entertainment on our shopping centers but we're adding sitdown restaurants, which is fairly new to our space. as far as the bigger boxes, ulta beauty has taken a big position

in outlets recognizing there's an aspirational customer looking for value that will also seek their brands and their products as a new category in our space. >> is that indicative of what you're seeing from the consumer now, which categories are doing well and which not so much? >> that's right. the athleisure brands are leading the charge. athletic footwear and also the athletic apparel. also we see beauty, we see jewelry. those categories are still leading. >> it's interesting. we're doing a special on nashville's economy in the coming weeks. there's other cities that have drawn in a lot of capital, whether it's jacksonville or salt lake, austin, atlanta. that has to make the portfolio decision a little broader for you, i would imagine, when you think about expansion. >> that's right. and those are the markets we're looking at. nashville, we just opened up a new shopping center in nashville two weeks ago. i got a report this morning, the parking lots are full. the customers are coming from far and wide. as far south as murphysboro and

beyond. we're also attracting a lot of tourist customers when they come into these geographies as well. >> is there one area that's hotter than the rest? >> we're primarily a southeast company. right now, thankfully for the weather across the country, we're shopping from new hampshire down to florida. we're hearing great stories of customer traffic, lines out the door at retailers. this is a good news story for us, especially this weekend. >> we put up some metrics on the screen a moment ago. one is occupancy. i wonder, it's up year-on-year? have you been impressed as to how well that's held in? >> yeah. first of all, covid weeded out a lot of retailers hanging on by a thread. they left our industry. now we have retailers brand-new to the platform, particularly direct-to-consumer brands.

those brands natively online are finding outlet a very important place for them to present their products, whether they're clearing excess inventory or want to get in touch with a new consumer. >> can you ever do an online outlet? outlet shopping is an experience because you cannot have that online, or can you? >> well, i think our website is very interactive. and it gives the customer an opportunity to window shop online before they execute in store. i think the customer likes to shop in store. it's a social experience. an outlet shopper usually comes with a car full of people. i got notes from the field this morning that the average car is carrying four people this morning. everybody's coming. they're bringing their friends, their family and looking for something to do together. >> it's not a bad looking three-year chart of the stock. i can relate. i love -- i love digging through an outlet and finding something good, a good price.

there's nothing like it. >> it's universal, i think. stephen, thank. look forward to talking to you during the holiday. straight ahead, could the chinese online retail names be the next big players in the holiday shopping season? we'll explore the growing overseas competiti wn meack.onhewe when you think of investment risk, do you consider climate risk? changing weather patterns are impacting the way we live and the value of businesses large and small. this can mean disruption to supply chains, changing demand for products and shifting regulation. what does this mean for your business, your clients, and your investments? ice offers data and markets that can provide critical insight. manage your climate risk with ice.

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black friday, with the rise of chinese e-commerce players like temu. deirdre bosa has been following that story for today's "techcheck." >> morning. is this is the year of tighter budgets and discount holiday shopping, we cannot not talk about the rise of the chinese e-commerce platforms, temu and shein and tiktok. they have swept the american consumer and this black friday they could be the new e-commerce elephants in the room taking market shares from the likes of amazon, walmart, target. a check on discounts from the

latter, the traditionalists, they fall between 15% and 20%. on temu and shein 90% off splashed across the home pages. the game aspect is there, offering free and exclusive offers with the spin of after wheel. tiktok's black friday shopping includes viral video with discounted products. you might have seen or heard about this viral stanley cup video. a tiktoker uploaded a video of her car burnt to a crisp. the only thing to survive, as you see here, is her stanley tumbler with the ice still cold, still in it. in a stroke of marketing brilliance, the ceo of stanley then stitched her video with one of his own offering to send mortem bellers her way, plus buy her a new car. now, if you search stanley cup on tiktok, plenty of options to buy that famous tumbler on the shop tab. no need to leave the app for amazon.

other tabs are accompanied by a viral video like a mop that works wonders and a hair curler even i could use. a common criticism or complaint is that the cheap stuff found on temu and shein is low quality, it doesn't hold up, that's junk. that's true, but you can find the same products on amazon and walmart more heavily discounted. like this portable washing machine appears to be half the price on temu versus amazon. today it's 17 bucks on temu. more than 60% off at amazon, the same product is about $60. no discount. take another example of this projector. it is under $30 on temu, discount of 60%. what appears to be the same one on walmart goes for more than 45 bucks. so, a reasonable, very reasonable question to ask is whether temu and the chinese e-commerce platforms if they're just burning cash to give these steep discounts, lock in the american consumer. how sustainable is that?

bernstein put out a note looking at temu parent's path to profitability in china. this is remarkable. it went from a negative 100% margin to a positive 60% margin after those shopping habits became entrenched. we don't know if that's going to work in america, but that is pretty remarkable numbers. they are certainly gaining consumers here. >> so who's the most afraid of this? who are they taking share from? >> on, the original thought is dollar stores because if you go on those sites today, there's stuff you can buy, not for dollars, but for cents. increasingly, we did a deep dive on "techcheck" of youtube and cnbc weekly video looking at how that could threaten amazon. third-party merchants are a key part of this. more than 50%, more than half of amazon's merchants are third-party. temu has the opportunity to undercut amazon on this front and pull the merchants to them

and give lower prices. so, there is a path in which this could threaten the likes of amazon and walmart. >> interesting. get data on whether engagement spikes on days like today, how the algorithms affect all of this. a brave new world. thank you. coming up after the break, we'll check in on the european economy as ecp president lagarde says it's time to assess the impact of rate hikes and germany's economy continues to slow. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, giving traders even more ways to sharpen their skills with tailored education. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. trade brilliantly with schwab.

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even though it is too soon to declare victory over inflation, the central bank can pause and evaluate the rate hikes. and economic contraction in the third quarter. in the netherlands and unexpected far right victory in parliament a populace imposition to become the next minister. here we have clouse. class, i wanted to start with the pit i wanted to start with the the election in the netherlands and whether you think this is going to be a new trend or a new wave in europe that will have symptoms in the economy. >> i think the balance between the right and left in european parliament flows. actually, there is never a clear trend to see what we are seeing in the netherlands.

it is a bit of a surprise. i think it is important to realize they only have a fairly small share of the total parliament. they don't have n absolute majority. they will have to do a dual coalition. yes, it is a shift. i don't think it is a shift that necessarily will matter for markets, at least not based on what we currently can see. >> let's get to the central bank news and the laguardia comments. she will speak a bunch next week too. what do you make of the tone there? >> well, tried to do one thing at the moment. they are trying to push back against expectations. there is a little bit of tug-of- war between markets. for our part they should be cut rates earlier than they themselves would expect. we think inflation is coming

down quicker than they expected. so far until they get a new forecast, which they will get in december, they will strike a tone relative to the expectations of rate cuts this year. >> what at the arizona economy freshman the economy? i think everyone expects them to be there. can the rest of the eurozone be resilient? >> we think germany is there. the eurozone is probably there as well. it is still very shallow. if you come from the starting point that the wheels would come off economy and would have a massive crisis with the energy shock and the war on ukraine, of course, what we are seeing is resilience. overall, it is pretty poor and it looks to be pretty weak at the start of next year as well. there is not really to write home about. it is sort of not much going

on. a shallow recession but not a deep recession. >> what does all of this mean for the european stocks? >> the euros are between 105- 110. in order to get below 105 we need to see a resurgence in the energy crisis. we are quite happy with where it is right now. european equities are obviously trading off of global fundamentals and global markets at the moment. earnings have held up a much better than you would have expected based on the macro data. that is good news for the european equity investors especially if you pick up some of the investors that have been well, we see a strong earning, despite what some might me, a macroeconomists, may have told you six months ago. there are some good news there i think. >> clouse, we are seeing some charts looking at historical patterns. post populace election things regarding terrace, trade, and

gdp. are you starting to work that stuff out in your models? >> not really. europe's biggest political problems from your point of view if you go back to the election in the netherlands, the countries cannot agree on a policy which is a big issue for populations in europe. they cannot agree importer policies. that becomes a problem from country to country. that will go on for quite a while. there is no agreement. what you are seeing in individual countries has more to do, at the moment, with domestic swings and politics, rather than this as such. maybe he is going to push for this in the netherlands. i don't see it happening but it is possible that he will see whether he can get that.

>> think were talking through euro 2024. a lot of moving pieces. >> happy thanksgiving to you. it has been hard to concentrate on this interview because i have been surrounded by all of these children. it is kids day at the new york stock exchange which is such a nice tradition. all of the floor traders including us get to bring their kids here. it is the official start of the holiday season. they have their face painted. we i would like to ask, we want to know what the hot presence or for the holiday season. you are a pro. you come every year. what are you hoping for this year? >> a virtual ping-pong set. >> i didn't know that existed. >> what about you? >> i want a camera. >> a camera? iphones do not do it? >> no. have an old polaroid. >> an old polaroid. >> i am curious to know, what was the best part about being here? was it the facepainting or the hair tinsel center? >> being with my dad. >> oh my god!

at least you look familiar. what was the best part of being here this morning? >> the tattoos. >> the tattoos? >> how about seeing mom? did you like that? >> yes. >> yes. >> okay, good. >> what about you? you have your hand raised. what would you like to say? >> i don't know. >> first time on tv. are you guys having fun? do you guys get the candy bags? >> not yet. there are some candy bags in the back. santa is also joining us in the back. >> happy holidays to all from the new york stock exchange. this is so exciting. >> are you busy this season then you have in past seasons? >> so much busier this year than ever. the christmas spirit is up. the holiday spirit is up. everybody is loving it. so am i. think you will. >> did you guys go shopping

today? do you tell your parents to buy online? do you go to the stores? no? just to the new york stock exchange? it is a new generation. >> my favorite part was the glitter tattoos. >> you got an amazing glitter tattoo and amazing face paint. >> what was your favorite part of the day or what do you want for the holidays? >> my favorite part of the day was seeing my dad. >> that is so sweet. that is where that is what today is about. >> congratulations to the nyc for putting this together. that is not easy to do keeping these guys in the the and organized. >> have a nice you display and a lot to do. what was your favorite? >> my favorite was waking up early. >> you liked waking up early?

>> you want a puppy? everyone? what about you? >> the best part was probably getting face paint. >> better than school? better than school. >> happy holidays. without having you here at the new york stock exchange. >> let's get to closing bell. >> better than school the, indeed get better. welcome to closing bell. the final hour of trading comes with a shortened day. the major indexes a new report showing equities capturing