everyone? what about you? >> the best part was probably getting face paint. >> better than school? better than school. >> happy holidays. without having you here at the new york stock exchange. >> let's get to closing bell. >> better than school the, indeed get better. welcome to closing bell. the final hour of trading comes with a shortened day. the major indexes a new report showing equities capturing.

this brings us to our top.. test the risk of sentiment of november bode well for the duration of the holidays? stores have too much optimism that leaves the market vulnerable to even the tiniest bit of disappointment. for that, let's ask dan greenhouse. thank you for being here. happy things giving. >> does this have staying power? >> i think so. it has been a really strong rally of october 27, 10+ percent. this has only happened a couple of times. you may think over a short period of time the market maybe in a period of digestion or a pullback. by the time you get out six

months the market is up 330 points more than your average occurrence. usually this is followed up by a stronger performance. >> the driver of that is momentum. what happens if it goes the other direction? >> if things go bad, the markets will go down. if things are good, the markets will go up. when you look to the list of 52- week highs in text, we'll obviously amazon and microsoft. when you leave text, you can go to industrials. you have ge. you have trained technologies in the consumer space. you have chipotle. some of the hotel psych hilton and marriott. there is really good participation. as i think about all of the stocks, i am reminded of the

famed investment guru taylor swift who once remarked, "i have no problem taring in the sun, but i will not look in the mirror." i am old, i screwed it up. but, as i say that, it is easy to lament the strong performance of the magnificent seven, so to speak, in terms of one's underperformance or inability to perform. when you brought it out from that space, there are investable themes and stocks that are doing very well. the trend is unlikely to change simply because the calendar does. >> so, basically no bad blood? >> i'm going to go back and forth? i have every alum since the third so i can do this. >> i definitely paid you as a swifty. speaking of having every album, it is black friday. how important do you think that is in this holiday shopping season for the remainder of this breath and equity.

there is expected to be somewhat of a slowdown in growth relative to the last few years where we saw so much. do you think it is investor sentiment or as long as things are it's too bad, it will not happen? >> at the end of the day, as long as it is not too bad. the narrative is correctly the job market is holding up. of real wages are positive. ultimately, that will support consumer spending. we just heard from a bunch of retailers that's to varying degrees told us something of the same story which is the consumer balance is still strong although there is evidence of a slowdown as the quarter progressed. that was true from the beginning of the retail reporting season, to the end. again, to your question, i don't see these and think there is going to be a myth in terms of expectations for the quarter. the labor met the labor market remains strong. this is good for confidence and for spending.

just because he switch doesn't mean those things will change. >> the labor market remains strong but there are some cracks out there. this morning the snp global data showed payroll, and manufacturers have is that barklay's plans about 2000 layoffs. then, there are sitting in other banks reducing headcount as well. does this have any impact on the overall bullish case you are seeing? >> first of all, the weekly number is trending upwards. last week we traced a lot of the games. in front of the financials, quite well. you know better than most the troubles that are in this space. if you look at the regional names all of those have not gone anywhere for reason in the larger cap space outside of j.p. morgan. a lot of those stocks and companies haven't gone anywhere for reason. i am not surprised there are layoffs. i don't think that necessarily

-- the strength for now remains the order of the day. >> they are not traditionally financials but they are talking about a normalization of losses and delinquencies. nothing is particularly high or egregious. when we're looking at cracks that are emerging, that is one particular area to which you can point. coming off of a very low base, but starting to move upwards. for now, the normalization but if it continues it may be worse. >> a reversal of a trend we have seen. i want to bring in victoria fernandez victoria you originally thought we would see a recession in 2024. he pushed the timeline to 2024. what were some of the factors you were expecting that

ultimately didn't come to pass? how likely to get think it is they will ultimately show up? >> obviously we look at everything that goes on with the rate cycle. we have had 525 basis points and without looking at the timeline, it would probably be somewhere around the end of this year that all of that would start to feedthrough the economy. we would see the weakness in the labor market. we will see margin pressure for corporations in earnings take a hit. some of these things have not gone as quickly. this rate sensitive, but we still thought we would see gets when we look at so many months in a row and all of that fit

through the belief we would see it. the consumer has really held in their. it has lifted this market. i think it is continuing to do so. at some points, we have to pay the piper. and not have to pay that back at some point. we do think we are going to probably see a mild recession next year. i am not saying it will be a huge pullback in the markets but i think we will see the elements of the consumer and corporations that 12% growth in earnings for the fourth quarter. it seems a little hefty. we will see these things work their way through in the beginning of the year. >> do you expect that to ever be paid? you expect in a recession at all next year. >> that is right. year ago saying that. was said there was probably the new bull market.

we have some of the best starts of the year ever. you tend to see third-quarter weakness. that played out. what you also tend to see is the late october lows those are positive. you later on the fact listen, december is right around the corner. that is a big question. we can have a little back. think about this. december is one of the vestments of the year at one point in the average. it is double that almost 3% of average. if you are up at least 10% going into the normally strong december, do you see a chase? you do. in the last five times in a pre- election december was higher up over 5% on average. what i am saying, a lot of people miss this rally. the economy is better than people think.

>> dan, we talked about seasonal factors and what it means for the remainder of this year. nothing necessarily changes because the calendar turns over and it becomes 2024. the seasonal benefits ryan was talking about, what do you expect to see in january when people dig in and look at the fundamentals cracks it is not that people aren't digging into the fundamentals now. i think they are. there is a truth. ticket to its extreme, november and december is it just a seasonably strong. i don't think they are not focused on the fundamental now.

i think things are probably going to slow down. i think things are going to slow down the to the points about earnings being a bit too much, even if they are up 8% there is no reason the stock market cannot rally. again, at this stage in the game, if you are not going to have an effect on the economy, right now it doesn't look like you will have that on the economy. >> you accept more volatility. you got more earnings. what is going on with labor, rates and inflation. what is the best way for investors to navigate? >> i do feel the market has had a little bit. i would agree it

is probably done. i don't think they are 100% done. i wouldn't say that it's 100%. six times over this market cycle so far we have seen head fake with market thinking and the fed comes back and says listen to what we are saying. higher for longer. some of the volatility will be around the markets coming to terms with the facts we were not seeing rate cuts in the first half of 2024. the fed will be higher for longer. some of that will happen. the market looks at bad news is good news. when with that shift? when will we see things normalize a little bit? that, in my opinion, will cause volatility we are seeing. for our clients, we are not out of the market.

if the equity market continues to do well to the end of the year? great! that gives us an opportunity to trim some of the names in the portfolio and have cash ready to dive in when the market pulls back in our opinion in the beginning of next year. you have to be diversified. would have some staples and some consumer discretionary names in the portfolio. we have fixed income in our portfolio. we are using options in order to generate income and cash flow for our clients. you can also look at alternative types for things like absolute return strategies . this gives you an opportunity in the market to really do some different things maybe people have thought of. >> i know you are looking ahead to next year and are already expecting no recession. without a recession, do they cut rates? >> we think they knew. it is about productivity. the last two quarters, productivity ran over a 4% annualized return.

the mid-90s was the last time with all strong productivity. the fed hiked a lot in 94. they started to cut n95. we have strong productivity. every time the same. one final comment all of these things going on in the world [ event concluded ] reviews. what is the markets telling us? the market is flat. we have seen a ton of pacific participation. that is the market in my opinion. and >> recently one of the few indexes in the red. dan, vittorio and ryan, thank you for joining us today on this black friday.

nvidia has been working on a compliant ship destined. the first reported in september 16. they said those are delayed until quarter one of next year. shares down over 1%. the cfos said these products may become available in the next coming months. we don't expect the contribution to be material my meaningful as the revenue in quarter number four. investors sold off shares on concerns that nvidia would be able to keep up with this pace of growth without a huge customer like china in the coming months. they say it is not impactful, the delay of chips in the near- term of the intermediate term,

the delays could be meaningful when figuring out when and if revenues peek for nvidia. >> i am curious the longer the delay lasts, assuming it does last, what does it mean for rivals to develop their chips that would compete in this market? >> there was a report in the chinese media outlet saying they were buying chips in replacement for nvidia. there is no death of the chinese market. it is definitely growing. they are still buying old u.s. equipment and it has been proven even on the old u.s. semiconductor equipment they are still able to advance the ai chips going forward. there is still a lot of questions on whether those equipment should be chipped or shipped to china.

we are just getting started. up next, banking on black friday. we are finding opportunity in the space and what is at stake for some of the retail's biggest names this holiday season. you are watching closing bell on cnbc. icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot.

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black friday kicks off the biggest joining me to discuss this outlook on the sector, simian of the capital market. simeon, thank you for being here. some of the electronic sales are expected to be how your. how are you looking at the nuances of spending this year versus previous years? >> good to be here. happy black friday. like every year it will be about the nuance. i will use your word, it is perfect. we will see winners when and losers lose. at the end of the day it sounds silly, but it is. haven't been true for the last few years. it has been about rising and receiving receiving ties. now you have businesses you are seeing this big divergence. you are watching certain companies and revenues grow when you are watching the

rectum penders see them stirring. as we look at that, that will be a cross sector. etiquette is finally tiny the winners of the business. >> where do you see the winners of the business? >> the way we are looking at it, i particularly like tjx. has been an under performer recently which moves us further. they will take advantage from a shopper and brand interest. it would be holiday if i wasn't buying scented candles. looking to bath and body works, that is the type of business that just reported earnings. it operating profit dollars grow for the first time in a long time and the stock lagged. i live those dichotomies. >> about different pockets investors should be avoided >> when i think about these businesses, we have now watched a bunch of the retail. we watched a few companies even i would talk about. now people are tracing. there is a question about figuring out intrinsic value versus focusing on the opportunity focused on momentum. that will be something we will look through. i think it is interesting.

on the other hand you are seeing nordstrom rack and you are seeing revenues decline. on the other side of the spectrum are watching coach revenues grow. michael coors declined. >> that is why you get paid the big bucks. do you expect us to have a meaningful impact on margins or do you think volume will be making up any hit they take on the pricing strategy? >> what is fascinating and we look at the stories, but if you look at the numbers, that companies that sell revenues grow was kind of split 50/50.

the vast majority saw the majority group. at the end of the day a lot of these companies are seeing these businesses commit healthier sales ticket doesn't mean we are not going to see those promotions. i am so waking up to go to the mall. ask me why. i don't really know but it is fun. at the end of the day the margin is there. what is so interesting is you are getting gross margins to improve not only that you are seeing them translate to dollars. you're getting the profit dollars growth. >> what about the makes in terms of how people are shopping? if we look at this year versus 10 years ago we would have a much different picture in terms of online versus in stores especially as these promotions are coming into my inbox and various social media and another online advertising platform. how does that play a role? what does it mean for the

bottom line for retailers in terms of likelihood of seeing returns from certain items or bulk purchases or the overall scented candles you may pick up >> i will commit the cardinal sin and i will antidotal lies. when i got to the mall i was able to park really easily. i got them off fairly early. i left them all to join you over here. people were swarming to get my parking spot. it is getting pushed later. at the end of the day you are clearly right. the penetration has grown. people will continue to shop digitally. it has not overtaken stores. you when i talked about this in the past. stores will be the best to shop for the consumer and the business. will people realize that also

say the consumer didn't have to get everything what thing they wanted. of that is a product that is compelling. >> it certainly means they are in a parking spot for simeon to do his holiday shopping. much appreciated. happy thanksgiving. a rally to round out.

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we are watching shares of barclays today moving around reports that the company is working on a cost-cutting plan to save more than $1 billion over the next several years. the plan could include cutting between 1500-2000 jobs largely focused on the banks back- office rules. this comes as the stock has been underperforming the european banking peers roughly 6 be 6% over the past year. stocks are muted on this training session but the s&p 500 is on track for its fourth straight positive week. tom, thank you for being here.: november seasonals are delivering. what is your expectation? >> are some positive catalysts. we have two inflation reports. november cpi i think it is going to be positive surprises

for market. we worry about how the fed has moved and maneuvered. we have the seasonals and the year and. the fact we are closing or are close to positive today reaffirms the positive seasonals are working. that is a risk on environments. i think that moving bit coin which make made a big high is another response. it is good for december. >> room to maneuver and less higher for longer. does that mean you're expecting rate cuts in 2024? >> if inflation continues on the path, that means by the middle of next year it may be something like a 27.28. that is so tight. that is what you see when they want to stock.

they are not thinking about higher for longer. it is are we over steering on the upside. >> this the fed need a recession to cut? >> no. i don't think so. i think they just need to sign up. i think it is increasingly viewing it as a supply chain that is oncoming. wages have not been a source of wage pressure to drive inflation . if that is still the case next year, they can cut. they do not need to break anything in the economy. >> is there anything that would change your mind about a rallying and tear and? any key risks you are focused on? >> the markets to watch his interest rates. at the 10 year, you do not want to see or revisit the 5% highs. it is tells us there are inflationary pressures building. you do not necessarily want to see wheels surge or

geopolitical risks erupt. as long as those three remain in line, i think it will be a good december. >> what are your favorite sectors right now? looking at today's market, for example, we have energy as the leader. materials and healthcare while information and technology and communication services are the laggards. where are you focused on the specific sectors you believe are poised to prosper? >> we think traditional investors will move toward liquid. i think small caps are a part of this. financials are interesting here too. >> someone said they are oversold by several metrics. in terms of sectors that are also

the -- we are seeing and i could explain some of the breaths we are seeing in the market? >> october 27, a lot of that was tactless settling. the majority of funds to use in october and. individuals and family offices and traditional's are going to be taking tax losses. the s and p is up almost 20%. it would make sense to do tax loss selling this your. there are potential unrealized gains elsewhere. >> we had a board up of the broader index of the day. the leader among those today, but they have been in the red the last three months in the last 12 as well. a lot of those are more

domestically focused. when you talk about the risk of potential for geopolitical concerns and that being something that could derail the rally projection, what do you make of the potential for investing in small caps? do you think that is a good idea? >> there are a lot of ideas for why small caps are a good three year investment. if rates are falling, it is a case for them. it is ironic. i wms emerging market stocks. they are essentially seeing risk category. if emerging markets are bottoming or china or small

caps. there are things coming together in the next year could be very hopeful. >> we saw some news coming out of europe that support the thesis yesterday. our markets were closed. lastly, i want to ask about earning season. we are mostly through it. although, it starts next week with enterprise tech names and retail names even though the unofficial and is beyond us, what is your take away the on the fact that corporate america is holding up okay. are there pockets of concern from the quarter three that you have? >> the realized situation -- the delivered results are better than not only investors realize. recession conversations have dropped and talk about slowing demand is less this quarter than prior quarters. it, you see a lot of investors inking this was a pretty weak earnings season.

it is far better than people realize. >> it has definitely been a key driver of the performance over the last few weeks. tom, thank you for being here. we really appreciate it. >> getting into the holiday spirit. big-name retailers are cashing in on treats and it looks like it is set to impact their bottom line in the big way. we will tell you how much customers are willing to pay and the companies that stand to benefit. closing bell we will be right back. in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. that rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well.

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wine themed advent calendar is all the rage this holiday season. some key retailers were but these will boost their bottom line. gomez here with the details. learn something new everyday. >> retailers but also spirit names as well. they said this will makes segment. that is not the case around the holidays. a projected $1 billion will be spent on one alone in the u.s. for the two week period around christmas and new year. that includes this new trend about and calendars. they range in price from $200 for 24 nights of wine, to a 24 day beer calendar costing $89. shoppers are spending the money. customer discount supermarket chain oldies annually selling

out. they said they have sold over 90% of the advent calendars this year. it is fun for shoppers and hard for retailers too. >> is this usually on top of spending they would do for the holidays and so forth? >> it is. it is also a personal purchase. something exciting for do for you to do around the holidays. it is sample size bottles. it will lead you to spending more down the line. >> it is probably helpful in discovery too. i am guessing a lot of the smaller bottles are taste testing for different vineyards and wineries people may go on and purchase. >> if you look at the boxes, you look at the wind, they tend to be more in-house brands which gives companies like cosco and all these an opportunity to get the marketed

household and possibly convert those to more sales down the line. >> perhaps in december you can come with samples. >> we will be toasting to the new year. >> we are going to report at it on it we may as well try it ourselves. >> that is just research. brandon, happy holidays. next, we are tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. standby with those. >> perfect timing to talk about the soaring shares of one weight-loss drugmaker. that and much much more after this short break.

14 minutes until the closing bell.

let's get to christina for a look at the case stocks watch. >> the maker of gobi and is a big gaining steam up almost 2% in a hitting and also hitting a two-week high. they would spend over $2 billion to expand a production facility in france after announcing another $6 million to expand in denmark. they are predicting a shortage of the masters would continue throughout 2024 forcing them to russia because of book starter kits in your. shares of zumba are supporting on a reuters report that regulators are preparing to approve a takeover. one hurdle is cleared but they are still reviewing the merger. it has not stopped the market cap from surpassing $1 billion. shares are up 37%. >> i have always thought about

getting it, but never actually took that step. to govern? >> now i have seen videos of children and pets around the floor on them. >> i would have a cleaner household had i taken that step. >> holidays are around the corner. >> thank you. up next, we are headed to the mall. speaking of holiday purchases, black friday shopping in full swing. a live report from the mall and a breakdown of all of the key names every investor should be watching this holiday season. that and much more when we take you inside the market zone. ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk,

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welcome back. we are now in the mall braving the black today crowds. and julia is on how social media is influencing consumer spending. you are in new york, braving those crowds. what are your big takeaways so far? >> reporter: this day is expected to be the busiest day for food traffic for retail, although maybe not as big as it once was. it's not a day we see retail stops. this is just the beginning of the big action for retailers. srt is up slightly. nordstrom shares run about 5%, sort of gaining back what they lost on wednesday following those results that were disappointing. signet jewellers and american

eagle outputteroutfitters down . today online, amazon at number one, walmart second followed by best buy and target. we're hearing from a cash back app, seeing a 5% increase in overall trips, folks that are using that service to potentially look for coupons or get cash back. the health and wellness retailers, up 14%, followed by department stores and shoe retailers, seeing a 10% boost in those shopper trips. this is retail's biggest day, $130 billion is expected to be spent online and the stores from thanksgiving to cyber monday. so we're just getting started. the mall traffic, definitely picking up as sort of the cadence of shopping as changed over the years, with door buster

deals no longer being offered at my places and many deals offered online. back over to you. >> and this comes in the middle of the earnings season as well. we spoke with an analyst at bmo earlier in the hour, who spoke about how in previous years, it's been a tide coming in and out, as you look at pockets of retail work. did you get that same sense in listening to the commentary over the calls the last week and a half or so? >> reporter: absolutely. even when you are looking within subsectors. i just spoke with the home depot ceo on monday. while they're in this year of moderation, i would say that comments from the ceo directly in response to some of our questions about how demand and sales are going, what the expectations are, we're fairly positive. and then the very next day, we heard from lowe's. they were not so positive. sort of saying look, our do it

yourself consumer is spending in different areas, not necessarily things that we sell, like travel and leisure. so a lot of differences and nuances within the subsectors. it's been the case that we have seen retailers report relatively strong third quaurters, but issued cautious guidance for the holidays. wall part's cfo told me we are seeing shoppers spend when you give them the big deals. but we see dropoffs before and after that. so this traditionally promotional period of time is going to be critical when we know consumers are very pressured in a lot of other ways. >> it's helpful to have experts like you. thank you so much. dan'ves, the holiday season is more important for apple in particular. what are you watching this year? >> i think it's going to be a strong holiday season. in terms of iphone 15, you go back over the last few weeks,

sentiment is different from what's happening before. ahead of street expectations, from an iphone 15, also in china, that continues to be a strength and really flex their muscles, despite their sentiment. in my opinion, this is really setting up for what is going to be a monster holiday season, xeshlly when you compare it to the last couple of years. >> it looks like consumers are turning to social media for holiday shopping. julia has more. >> reporter: that's right. americans are increasingly looking to shop on social media. this year, nearly half of gen-z will shop on tiktok or instagram, according to a shopify poll. now, this holiday season will be a key test of the power of ai and a test of amazon, which has

partnered with meta, pinterest and snap. so shoppers can buy from amazon ads within those social apps. meta is offering other advertisers and testing some generative ai ads throughout next year. tiktok is taking a totally different approach. it launched a tiktok shop in september with 200,000 merchants to build its own e-commerce business. across these platforms, ads are projected to drive ten times more online visit this is holiday shopping season than traditional marketing, according to insider intelligence. back over to you. >> julia, how lucrative are these technologies for the social media companies themselves? do they get any kickback for a number of clicks and so forth? >> reporter: look, the more effective an ad is, the more you're going tov those

advertisers come back and buy more. so return on investment is key. platforms such as meta want to make sure their ads have a high return on investment. so those ads can be incredibly targeted and effective. i think what's so interesting about these amazon partnerships, it is designed to be a win-win. amazon wants to take out any friction that might prevent you from stopping when you see an ad and make that purchase. before you would have to go to a different app or open up your computer. this is really designed to remove that friction. if it works, amazon will spend a lot more on advertising, a win for meta and snap and pinterest, as well. >> dan, any companies that you believe should be taking notice of this that are missing opportunities based on lagging technology in the advertising space? >> look, i think julia talked and for amazon, this is going to be more montization for meta, especially next year.

if there's one that's probably left on the table in terms of where they have not monetized as much, it's snap. snap continues to be the one where you do overall advertising. it feels like they're left behind, but ultd imately this i just another trovy case moment for zuckerberg. >> what about the potential for regulation? >> oh, yeah. they are well aware of what is going on here. it's going to be a regulatory spider web, but right now they're 20 miles an hour in the right lane. technology is going to 100 in the left lane, especially with ai. so this is just going to be the strong getting stronger in big tech. >> all right. dan, thank you so much for joining us. we have santa ringing the

closing bell today. hopefully for those bulls out there, an insight into the rally. that does it for "closing bell." now over to "overtime. " >> how do you stop santa? stocks mixed, but major averages locking in their fourth straight week of gabs, the longest winning weekly streak since june for the s&p and nasdaq. but the action is just getting s.t.a.r.t.ed. welcome to a special edition of "closing bell." i'm morgan brennan. ahead on today's show, apple dipping in this shortened session after a court said iphone sales dropped in china. we'll talk to a shareholder and analyst about what that portends fo