to walk out today to demand better pay and working conditions. here's a final check on the market, about where we've seen for the rest of the morning. you got leftovers? >> i'm trying to look for new ways to reheat turkey. >> i can do my "forrest gump" thing. turkey chlil, turkey pizza, turkey gumbo. he did shrimp. "squawk on the street" is coming up next. ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. futures a bit red as the s&p comes off four straight winning weeks, the longest stretch since early summer. busy week with pce thursday, powell on friday, the market assesses black friday sales. our road map begins with retail record. black friday shoppers spending nearly $10 billion in u.s. online. big gains. plus signs of a strong start

to the holiday shopping season. shopify shares toward a 19-month high. shopify's president is going to join us in a few minutes. and the bulls are back. global stocks headed for what would be the best month in more than three, count them, three years. wow. let's begin with the holiday retail and the consumer. according to adobe analytics, black friday generated a record $9.8 billion in domestic online sales, up 7.5% year on year. reports cite strong demand for electronics, smart watches, televisions. mastercard spendingpulse says sales up 2.5%. buy now, pay later metrics out of adobe. >> i saw affirm ticking up. what was supposed to happen this year was rates go higher, people spend less, fed wins, and soft landing. david, the spending would indicate that there can't be a soft landing, not with this kind

of strength. >> yeah, i mean, i always have a hard time on this day in particular making sense of some of the early data, although it does seem quite positive, other than this one outlier at morgan stanley where they seem to say their channel checks indicate things were flat to down. again, i don't know what channels they're checking, and we are going with -- i mean, you know, at this point, you can obviously measure credit card and credit card spend is the way most people do, except the lowest end, where they may be using more cash. there's the morgan stanley research note, which kind of throws cold water on this idea. but jim, you're right, it does appear we've gotten off to a strong start. today is cyber monday. everything gets lumped together at this point. we don't really talk about retail as in in-store versus out of store as we may have once done as we're measuring the growth of digital, which is now enormous. >> we have this amazon gain. amazon paid, what, $100 million for that game. did more people stay home and

shop? that was kind of a celebration of shopping. i think that the game, obviously, new york could be, i don't know, it's a bad game. >> they were mostly bad games. yeah. as i said to my family, i'm now available every sunday the rest of the winter. that's a good thing. i'm trying to put a positive spin on the fact that i do not need to watch the jets or the giants for that matter, for the rest of the season. >> the giants know how to tank. geez. but look, carl, i'm watching the sales per minute coming from shopify, which we will have -- we have harley on -- and i just think that today is one of those days, make or break. i think this is make or break, this cyber monday, because look, i didn't read a single brick and mortar piece that was positive. i just didn't. i know jewelry did well. geez. it's not enough.

we haven't had a lot of, other than a&f, we haven't had a lot of blowout. >> you liked gap. >> gap was so bad. it was like, how could you miss? old navy was up 1%, and that was enough to make people feel great. i would feel great if lowe's had been good, if home depot had been better, home depot rallied. target made more money, but it wasn't the same store sales. so i look at brick and mortar so far, and i think that's more in keeping with soft landing than cyber monday. >> people have been harkening back to what walmart said about potential deflation as we look at some of the discounts. some of the seasonal discounting is in the 15 to 30% range. >> yeah. i think that a lot of people feel that you don't need to go to off price, david, because the regular guys are off price already. >> some are talking about prices as low as qu2019 on a handful o items. walmart is pricing things below

last year in a number of different categories. that's got to be viewed positively by the fed, isn't that doing what they want? >> i think the fed wins on brick and mortar, loses on cyber, but brick and mortar is where people get laid off if you don't do good. they hire a lot of people for the holidays. >> not as much this year. >> not as much this year. look, my only conclusion is that if we talk to shopify, we're going to feel like, wow, it was a blowout. but if we were to talk to some of these department stores, i think we would say, wow, that's -- geez. not a lot of sales. >> the other interesting element is this "journal" piece on inventories, retail inventories, where the inventory-to-sales ratio, back to pre-covid levels, trying to get smarter, chase what's hot. red is trending, apparently. >> brian cornell put on a clinic of what you have to do. i think that target had been the one that had not done well, and they figured it out. this was the year -- i've never seen this happen -- where every

retailer talked about the most important thing was their inventory. it used to be same store sales. >> in this case of target, of course, same store sales were negative, and in fact, may continue to be negative, but the profitability of the company was far in excess of what many had anticipated because of the very thing that jim is mentioning, which is inventory control and having much higher margins, potentially. and you're right, that's always been a key, though, jim. if you listen to, i think, drexler was on earlier. 20 years ago, you talk to him, it was always that. >> i bumped into him once, and i introduced myself. this was at a bagel place, and i said, how you doing? he said, inventory. i said, no, i mean, i'm just a big admirer of your work. mr. inventory. that's all right. he's a great guy. he can get away with saying, inventory. >> he did say, what, 40-some-odd black fridays he's witnessed as a working adult and said, we've trained the consumer to wait.

he said, i think they will wait for prices to get better. >> i think you're right. there are people who actually pay real close attention to stuff, and then there are people who say, i'll go on amazon, it will come to my house. it's terrific. i asked my wife, geez, this amazon, they must really like you. she said, they send me presents every day. people shop every day on amazon, and i think that's what we're going to hear, and i just think that jassy was brilliant. i think this was a power play move by jassy. >> how about this "journal" piece? >> that's what i was just looking for. >> overtaking fedex and u.p.s. >> biggest delivery business in the united states. that's worth spending a minute on. the biggest -- there it is -- in the united states. >> isn't it incredible. >> far in excess of both u.p.s. and fedex, which, by the way, are following a somewhat different strategy. fedex obviously stopped delivering for amazon on quite a number of years ago. u.p.s., still amazon represents 11% of their business.

but amazon, you see the trucks everywhere now, right? there's a reason for that. >> i'm a big jack reacher fan, there's like 29 of them. i order it last night, and about two minutes later, i get a thing from amazon that's, like, your book, "jack reacher," has been sent. how is that possible? and you know they've got these mega centers, and i guess they just knew that was a best-seller, so they're ready for it. they did the same thing with a book called "holly" by stephen king. i press it and i'm thinking it's a receipt. no, it's delivery. how is that possible? >> you know how it's possible. we sat here during covid and talked about how much money they spent, jim, building those centers. hundreds of distribution centers much closer to everywhere, basically. and they can reach people via the amazon vans that you see that are ubiquitous at this point. >> i confess that i did indeed buy gillette blades through

amazon because i was not going to buzz and make someone come over and do the thing. >> they were having a black friday deal, but it was the wrong blades. i was very disappointed. >> they were like five-blade? >> they were fusion. >> you need the pro? >> i don't know what i have. i have the good old gillette -- >> the schick. >> i have a regular one. but those blades were not on sale. you could get fusion all you want. >> it was like amazon threw in a couple extra blades for me. amazon has become -- let's just own this, right? if you're one of these companies other than walmart, you're just saying -- you're watching that game on friday, and you're actually glad it's not a real good game because you say, maybe am someone will go to the mall. >> did you hold your phone up and do the qr codes? >> i held my phone up. i held my watch up. that's what i held up. >> kelly green wristwatch. >> here's my phone, which has the exact amount that shopify is telling us right now. >> every minute, sales per minute. >> per second.

pretty impressive. >> yeah. what's, up 22 year on year, we think, out of shopify in record-breaking? >> i think these numbers are extraordinary. if you're nordstrom, you've got to be shaking. what is nordstrom's rai raison d'etre? >> they have a really nice store on 57th street. >> nice shoes. >> there's a nice bar in there. >> i mean, bloomingdale's has a bar in nashville, i think. i think they have a bar in the nashville store. >> as does amazon. pretty big operating hub for north american retail. >> i mean, look, we could have sat here five years ago and said, you know what, amazon is nipping at these guys. now it's like, i don't know, i hope that macy's has a good holiday. they need chinese tourists to come in, because the chinese tourists don't come in here and start ordering from amazon. that would seem to be, right? they ship it to beijing? two-day notice?

>> they have other companies there, namely one called alibaba. >> alibaba just -- they just discontinue everything, alibaba. >> no. yeah, but they have -- they operate there pretty well there. the chinese consumer can use that. when it comes to digital payments in china, they have been far ahead of us in many ways. >> did anyone need to be this new street note on pinterest? they're riding temu and shein. now, one day, we're going to be saying, well, we all work for shein, so it's embarrassing that he has to mention shein. i send this note out every morning. you could subscribe, it would be great for me. use the darn qr code. >> use the darn qr code. >> you only like -- all he ever does is look at what stock i own that's doing badly in the club and points that out or tries to get me out of stocks, as we know. >> it's the boeing effect. >> bill tried to get me out of disney because it was a horrible movie weekend, but then maybe

there's a board meeting where you get a dividend. >> you never know, jim. >> do you want to get me out? >> you ready to get out yet? >> that never meant a thing to him before. thank you. >> you're welcome. >> yeah, thank you. >> i know. sorry about boeing. i know. i'm sorry. >> just right out there, one of the best stocks. >> it's on me, of course, that he got out of boeing. on me. >> it was. >> the shame. >> i was mortified every time. >> you called a couple of good bottoms. >> my god, do you hear that? david, this is a commercial break. when we come back, will you say that again? >> no. you called them by selling. >> geez, that is so mean. >> that was mean. >> how'd you look in gamestop? i didn't see that movie. >> i'm the first to praise you when you get them right, and you get plenty right. but i'm not going to sit here and say, sometimes when you decide to sell, it's the time to buy. >> you wore that same outfit on tuesday. what do you rotate -- >> i got a lot of pairs of

jeans. >> when we come back, a red-hot november for shopify. we will talk to harley in a applicable. stocks up 50% month to date. we'll talk about online holiday after his company's record-breaking black friday. take a look at the premarket. bunch of news on kraft heinz, novo, roku and a lot more in a minute. rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal,

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friday record, totaling $4.1 billion in sales. joining us now is harley finkelstein. i'm looking at a website, bfcm, and right now, it is ticking and ticking and ticking. i see unique shoppers. that's not right, is it? 52 million? >> 52 million, yeah. right now, for anyone watching, by the way, you can check out shopify's realtime shopping tracker, shopify.com/bfcm, black friday, cyber monday. cyber monday has been off to a great start. but really, for us, this weekend is like the super bowl for entrepreneurs and brands. the weekend belongs to them. i thought before we actually get into what's happening right now, let me do a quick review of what we've seen over the last three days because it's quite remarkable. >> sure. >> we saw peak sales per minute globally on black friday, 4.2 million per minute. that was right around noon on friday, 12:01 eastern time. just to compare, last year, it

was about 3.5 million around the same time. but in total, in aggregate, we saw about $4.1 billion sold on black friday. that's a 22% increase since last year's black friday, and is about 3.36. but another thing to remark about is the velocity. we start tracking black friday/cyber monday from midnight utc in europe. we saw merchants cross the $1 billion mark before midnight est on black friday, which was a couple hours earlier than last year. and so, while it's still early on cyber monday, i think the thing we're seeing is that shoppers are voting with their wallets to buy from brands they love, both online and in store. those brands are on shopify. >> how much did it help about the -- your deal with amazon? did it make a difference? >> look, our entire objective is to give merchants as much choice and optionality as possible, so whether it's working with companies like amazon or all the major social media platforms, we're creating a retail

operating system, which means whatever you want to do from shopify, you can do that. but you know, the success of this black friday is owned by our merchants and they're doing really well. you know, something that i just -- a new stat that i just got is over 30,000 of our merchants, for them, black friday was their best sales day ever on shopify. and if you look at the globe, there's this really cool little easter egg, which, jim, you're going to love this because i know you're such a fan of small business. over 13,000 merchants had their very first sale ever on -- at the start of black friday. so, when you see those fireworks on the map, those purple fireworks, that's a brand new entrepreneur hitting their very first sale. >> harley, is it your sense that the discounting is more or less aggressive than you thought going into the weekend? >> hey, carl. look, i think what you're seeing is really the power of the consumer. this black friday-cyber monday weekend is now a season. discounting started as early as october, will likely go up to christmas. i don't think the discounting is really driving it, but i think

what we're seeing is the power of the consumer. average cart price in the u.s. right now is about $121. that's up from about -- that's up from last year. it's about $107 globally, and you're seeing cities like l.a., new york, and san francisco are currently the top-selling cities in the u.s. so, you know, i think consumers are the vips or the superheroes driving this economy this holiday season, and it's not just happening online. i know you guys were talking about offline before, but one of the things that's very interesting is that sales made by merchants on shopify using our point of sale system, which is in store, has grown by 33% since this period last year, so i don't think it's online only. i think it's this intentionality where consumers want to buy from their favorite brands and some of the major, trendy ones right now are stanley, for example, their tumbler. think about this. stanley is a 110-year-old company selling a barbie pink tumbler and another company that's also trending was created in the last ten years or so. so, i think there's this real appetite to buy from brands you

love. >> harley, for our viewers who are trying to get sense overall of what this means for the economy, for the consumer, i don't know if you have tracked this dataset in the past or what you have seen. you seem to be quite positive, but can you give a little more granularity in terms of what you have seen in the past and therefore what you may expect for the rest of the holiday season? >> there's no question it's up from last year, but let's look realtime right now. right now, we're seeing 1.3 million sales per minute. and about 11 -- over 11,000 orders per minute. so, again, what we're seeing is that the u.s. consumer and the consumers around the world seem to be strong. they are buying from brands they really love. they have a connection to as well. but in terms of how this has been trending, i mean, you know, i was on your show in q3 after our earnings report where i talked about q3 gmv was up to $56 billion, so i don't think this is a black friday-cyber monday phenomenon. i do think there's a reason the

consumer, where the consumer is saying, we want to buy from the brands we love. we may not buy ten t-shirts. we're going to buy the three that we really love. quality matters. intentionality matters. that is the theme of the weekend. but it belongs to these independent, direct to consumer brands. >> how are people getting through these? stanley had an amazing -- i saw on tiktok -- had an amazing video -- >> that fire in the car, right? >> that had to drive traffic, right? >> all these things do. one of the things you are seeing is that we used to talk about this idea of omnichannel and retail being online versus offline and you can hear on earnings calls from traditional retailers, they talked about channel conflict. you're not hearing that from these. what they're creating is this way where not only are they marketing to their consumer at every single touch point, social media, brick and mortar, television, radio, but in terms

of purchasing, they're channel agnostic. they want to sell in the way their consumer wants. that might be online, instagram, marketplace, in a physical store. that's part of the reason why we're hearing us at shopify talk so much about retail everywhere and building this piece of software so that every consumer -- excuse me, every brand, every merchant is future-proof. >> it's so impressive. harley finkelstein, thank you so much. president of shopify. congratulations to those 13,000 new businesses that started. that is an amazing figure. thank you. appreciate it. >> thank you. still to come this morning, we'll get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell, get you set for what's headed our way this week, including pce and of course powell on friday in a moment.

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. all right, we've got two minutes before we get started with trading for the week. let's squeeze in a "mad dash." we want to talk about an activist campaign from elliott. yet again at crown castle. >> what's interesting, when you hear, restoring the castle, you might think, maybe this is nelson peltz attacking disney. no. it's elliott, really, just saying, crown castile castle, we need new board, new management, new everything, because they keep pursuing, at crown, the fiber small cell strategy, which

every year is viewed as being immature but supposed to be okay. it's obviously wrong. and amt, american tower, and sba, have committed to international towers, where the growth is, because verizon doesn't have a lot of growth anymore, and nor does our friends at at&t, which i use usually. >> right. >> and t-mobile. david, they think that you could spin off this fiber and that it would be a huge win, because private equity might want to do it. one of these infrastructure private equity companies. i don't know, david, they're pretty good. they do a lot of homework. >> they do, and they think that you can back into a u.s. tower multiple if you look at sbc or amt and it's higher, and therefore, if you get rid of this fiber business, you'll get a higher multiple. the first campaign was in 2020, and i think they had a billion dollars worth of stock. that was called reclaiming the crown. this is now restoring the castle. when are they going to storm? when is the next? storming the castle. >> it may be with the proxy fight. it yields six, but not because

they keep raising the return. >> it's because the stock has come down this year. >> the worst in the group. they stick by this idea of continuing this -- a technology that may not be so great. so, i say, i am with elliott, not with management. >> let's get the opening bell in the cnbc realtime exchange. at the big board, brazilian energy company. at the nasdaq, celebrating its recent ipo, globavend, e-commerce logistics provider. that seems to be the running theme this morning, jim. >> you heard harley. i think what's so interesting, the small/medium-size business, collectively, it actually, i think, is moving the needle. i remember when i worked with larry kudlow, before he became national economic advisor, and he said, obviously, backbone of the economy. and yeah, we all want small business, but the walmarts of

the world and amazon have really taken to them. there's a new kind of small business and it's a small business that has the infrastructure of shopify, and it works, clearly. etsy stock has not been a winner right now, but i think it's just -- it's good for the economy, and it also is not inflationary. these people are just doing it on their own. >> the productivity -- not just the crm part but the back office, the hr, the tax preparation, it's all making -- that's why new business creation has been so robust. it's easier to do. >> you can't -- look, i don't think the fed has ever wanted to kill it. i think the fed, obviously, would like housing prices to go lower, and that is not what these guys do. >> no, but if you are a merchant, for example, or at least you want to be, a wannabe merchant, you identify a market that you think is an opportunity, and you can effectively market, which is really the key in many ways. >> tiktok. >> you can, then, to carl's point, create a business, basically, with the shopify platform or some others that are available and all the back office. you now just have to worry about

sourcing and marketing. the selling part, or at least the basics of it, are done for. >> right. zip recruiter. that makes the hiring part different. it's a bunch of different things. >> at some point, generative a.i. will just take over all of it for you. >> i knew -- >> start a business war. >> he brings up the nfl. >> you brought up boeing. i didn't. >> and then generative a.i. >> what's next? larger market cap only? >> we're going to be walking around -- i don't know. we're going have to come up with a lot of hobbys. >> i think that when we -- when they figure out -- they figure out how to make it so that generative a.i. is actually focuses on hosting a tv show, i think we're fine. that's not their emphasis right now. >> you guys watch. i know you guys are looking at what -- i mean, just the -- every day, there's something, whether it's a -- it looks like a human being but it's not, carl. it's a fake person, i guess. >> that's right. >> who is either singing a song

written by a.i. or -- >> did you see the merriam webster's word of the year is going to be authentic, because that will be the key, determining what is real. >> i had a fight with a subscription company, i'm not going to mention their name, automotive news, and i said, you're a phony, fraud, i can't get through to you. all it did was make it angry, and i never heard back. david, it doesn't help to try to woo them. it doesn't help to be nice to them, you curse at them. they operate at their own pace and they don't care. >> i'm sorry the "they" here is the automated response americanisms? >> the bots who say, we're here to help you. yeah, yeah. >> we're going to be better when they have generative a.i., because they'll be able to get right on top of it for you. >> they don't have feelings. if you prick them, they don't bleed, david. who's that? who's that? >> that was shakespeare. >> which guy?

>> oh, come on. >> wait. >> shylock. >> the poisonous -- if you poison them, they don't die. hath a bot not hands? >> that one, i got on my own, by the way. nobody in my ear. i was an english major. >> we got some fresh 24 targets out of deutsche. 5,100. >> they're all trying to come out higher. we're not -- of course, we haven't heard from mr. wilson to see -- to make us all depressed. >> yardeni, 5,400. >> yardeni, at times, he's become -- ed's been around for years. i've always loved him. i did a chat with him. he puts out a fantastic note. and i now feel that he has come into his own, even though he's been on his own for years. suddenly, he's getting the attention he should, and his work is just so high-quality. it's fantastic. i love his work. >> there's a guy who's counting

on productivity gains to make the inflation backdrop easier in the years ahead. >> when you read what he is saying, he's basically saying, don't worry, the economy is self-curing. david, he's looking at generative a.i. and thinking, this is how you -- you can keep wages down. no one, by the way, is talking about immigration's keeping wages down. that is still something that no one's willing to talk about. i'll talk about it. >> we need a -- >> we've had more immigrants in the last year than we had in the last six. >> unfortunately, a lot of them are not able to work. it's two years or something. >> policy seems strange. >> there was allowed for some for six months, but it gets confusing. but to your point, i think one of the themes that we're going to hear more about for 2024 and onward is what will the productivity gains from generative a.i. be as it starts to be used more widely in the enterprise?

>> i think we'll hear that from salesforce. >> one of the key measures is going to be microsoft's copilot and what it can do and how it can do it. make me an entire slide presentation from, you know, it will take so much time away in terms of work time away from people. will it make them more productive? will it eliminate their jobs? will it allow them to pursue things they otherwise wouldn't that will actually add to the potential growth of the company? i don't know. but it's going to be a theme for sure. >> well, if you talk to jensen huang from nvidia, which is the king, he would tell you that the best work it does is it summarizes. if you are -- you need precision, you have to read a whole document, but before i came out here, the document for crown castle, from elliott, is very, very long. i was really tempted to do chatgpt, but i happen to like them, and i think it's insulting. everyone's, like, hey, i chatgpt'ed your thing. if you are at home right now and you're trying to get your day going, i would chatgpt, get me the ten highlights. and it would be terrific.

it would do a good job. that's the issue, as we'll hear from salesforce in their report. >> will you replace one of your researchers? >> would you replace your offensive coordinator? who should start tomorrow, given all the data we've got in practice tomorrow? >> i don't know. the bills could use it. fourth quarter -- >> how about the jets get some generative a.i. for their draft picks? quarterbacks? >> that's not possible. you need the h-300. >> jensen's still working on a chip. >> sanchez to darnold to wilson. >> you need after grace hopper. i don't know what you need. there are a lot of -- i would have, on the sidelines, chat about what to do, because i'm seeing some very bad decisions being made. i mean, by the way, gabe davis, if he had chat, he would have known to go left, not right last night on the bills. he just needed to check. >> see? >> he went the wrong way. chat probably had a fit. there we go. >> man, some of these photos.

without goddard and without johnson. >> you guys are looking really good. >> but i think that we had -- been a couple guys playing. driscoll, he was clearly chat. >> ge health care shares are down. did you see this downgrade? to a sell? >> my trust owns it. you knew he had to do it. >> let me just read the top. >> you do it and i'll give you the counter. >> you respond. okay. "in this report, we explain why a combination of softer -- >> right. >> let me finish. "tough comps and a lack of pricing tailwinds put us 4% below consensus adjusted ebit with scope for further downside." >> he's talking about a slowdown where they're taking share. he doesn't seem to realize that by this time next year, if you want to get the dimension drugs, you have to prove, sadly, that you have got plaque build-up. who can do that other than ge health care? ge healthcare has been so, i would say, so humble. they have not made any claim. this guy makes it sound like ge

healthcare is saying, listen, everyone, have an mri. it's not like that. i just think that they are taking it to the competitors. i spoke to their largest customer, who's ordering -- they said, these things pay for themselves. i don't know where he got the weak sales. guy came on our show. >> it's their own analysis of their order intake and broader market. >> oh, never mind, because they clearly know more than the ceo. i mean, i apologize. i was relying on the ceo. >> it's not often that you see a firm willing to go to a sell on anything. >> the guy had a hold from the run from '63 to '73. >> i'm not saying he was right. >> i hope he's right, because may the best person win, right? let's see how he does in the fourth quarter, right? he misses the field goal. tell you, that guy misses the field goal. >> as one does. >> nvidia shares are up. >> they were down two bucks when adam was doing the five, and i think that one of the -- first of all, the stock has been just

nothing but down since they reported. >> right. you barely see frit that chart, but yes. >> there was a really good -- there was a synopsis read-through, very positive note about synopsis. lot of people felt -- they're the analog, the partners, and we did have a weird positive note from an outfit i had never heard of. i shouldn't say that. jeffries' group, the fubon team, which apparently ben and jeff marks says has great reputation, saying nvidia, not right to come under pressure. they like the stock. they're using a very big price target, well above here, so i think that helped. >> you mentioned affirm. this is a real breakout. that's going to be about a 15-month high on affirm, up 10% this morning. >> you know, max lipton wanted to be on -- how many shows do we have during the day? every hour? i think he wanted to be -- >> we've seven shows. >> i think he wanted to be on eight shows. i happen to love max, and he is

this -- this was the inflection quarter, and it is straight up, because he did not -- it's working for him. he's doing well. he can offload his loans. he doesn't have any bad loans. he's a super guy. and i wish him well, and this stock is really going. >> is that going to be one of the highlights of the holiday season, increased usage of buy now, pay later. >> yes, and if they pay, it's really good. >> it's really helpful when they pay. >> yeah. >> as opposed to just the buy? >> right. apple, you pay. i just paid for something apple again. there is just a -- i still think that apple is a great winner here. but we haven't heard yet anyone come out and say how bad the 15 sales were and the 15 pro and the 15 pro max and they're horrible, horrible, horrible, and china is weak. like we heard when the stock was at $171. how do you like that? >> they will be celebrating "napoleon" over the weekend and "hunger games" interesting "wish" out of

disney. marvel is down. >> disney made too many movies. they just made too many. david, i think that bob iger will be the first to admit they made too many. >> he has admitted it. he actually openly discussed the fact that he felt that the quality, perhaps, was not quite what it should be. you do wonder, though, about the willingness of parents to go to the box office if you've got disney plus at home. >> win-win. >> like, why would you go to the movies? i don't know. >> disney plus -- >> i don't have little kids anymore. maybe it's good. >> espn is really good. remember that monday night football game last week? >> indeed. >> that was, what, the best -- >> best tv audience of the year. the parade might have done a little -- come close. the thanksgiving day parade. but yeah, that was a huge monday night football game. >> it does matter. you know, david, i think that we don't play up enough ratings, because the ratings have been so bad for so long, no one cares. the ratings are good. espn, they've got, i don't know, they've got some good -- we may

have a -- >> the nfl ratings are good. >> right. >> the rest of tv is sort of a broad kind of wasteland? >> people have not been big -- david, you, yourself, have reques questioned the value of espn. i say, if you can pull in that many viewers, maybe the value is bigger than we think. >> we may find out. >> why? what do you know? >> i don't. i mean, listen, i know they have been talking to a couple of the leagues, which doesn't make a lot of sense to a lot of people as to if you were a league, why would you partner strategically with espn when you're trying to sell your rights to everybody? and then verizon, i've heard that name. we've all heard it. we'll see if they end up with anything and whether money changes hands. >> isn't it interesting that apple is not part of the conversation? yet, you think that would be natural. >> yeah, you would have thought that initially. you did. you thought, in particular, for apple's ambitions when it comes to the vision pro. >> i wouldn't sell disney ahead

of a board meeting, but if you want to sell, i'm never going to stop anyone from selling. knock yourself out. go ahead, sellers. you got a $93. go ahead. >> by the way, the eras tour film going to go to streaming. i think taylor had a swift -- taylor swift had a tweet or a post. >> president biden likes another singer, right? >> i think there was a little confusion between taylor and britney? >> well, they're frequently not confused. i mean, that's like saying, i really like travis kelce -- >> really? every so often, i don't get a shakespeare quote in the first, you know, ten seconds. >> i would have had kelce. mrs. kelce. not yet. >> that will be big. that will be like a royal wedding. >> i'm getting in that wedding. i'm going to that wedding. >> they don't want you at their wedding. >> they don't? >> no. they do not want you at their wedding. >> no? >> there's a look at taylor

swift's post. >> wow, okay. >> i think in there, it says, "no jim cramer at my wedding. " >> she muted you. >> i know andy reid. >> that doesn't help. you're not going to the wedding. >> e.l.f. is doing well because d doz cosmetics did well, but not ulta. >> so, what does that mean, ulta versus e.l.f.? >> there was a strategic, critical, sell recommendation, a negative catalyst from citi. at the same time, i have felt that e.l.f. is a stock that is manipulated down all the time and they just keep doing incredibly well. >> and your buddy, tony, there at bernstein. >> he had a note. >> he has a note about tesla versus byd. >> byd is not really allowed here. >> i know. it says, by the way, this is the largest maker of evs in the world now or in china, certainly. >> bunch of china headlines today about reinvigorating the private sector too.

>> yeah, and obviously, tesla's market cap is far in excess of byd. he sort of questions that. >> i'm going to give you a tesla -- >> there's so many things going on at tesla. >> i don't want to talk about -- let me give you. tesla was up in pre. the market is soggy today. david, elon musk said that he was worried about sales because of rates. >> correct. >> now, rates have come down. >> yes. >> the stock has had a nice move. i don't think the move is done. i mean -- >> you're right. on the last call, he made a point -- now, that was when we were right near 5%, i believe. >> yeah. >> talking about how most people finance their car purchases and see the monthly costs are far higher, and that's going to depress sales. >> third iteration coming. i'm not hearing much on the cybertruck. >> there's a "journal" story today, which we've seen before, about the fact that stainless steel is just hard to manipulate. really hard. >> yeah. >> meanwhile -- >> for cybertruck, which obviously is --

>> he's meeting with netanyahu today, musk is, in part to rebut some of his posts are anti-semitic. >> do we have your interview where he says he's pro-semitic. >> many have questioned his judgment. the platform, x, has lost advertisers as a result of that, but there is -- >> we got a list of people that have canceled, of firms that have canceled. it's pretty -- or paused. >> "the times" added coke and airbnb. amazon, microsoft, either to the 200 that have paused or are considering pausing. >> i'm waiting for -- how about jeff sonnenfeld putting out a list of people who are still with x? that would be interesting. jeff does those. i don't know if you read jeff's stuff. >> how can you not? you get it ten different times in your inbox. >> one was my nobel-prize-winning cousin.

bradley cooper, before he went to private school, abington high. where did netanyahu go? sheltonham high. rivals. >> this is the only place to hear this stuff. >> david, all the world is a stage. you're not even a player. >> that's true. i'm not a player. >> you can get in on the cnbc t investing club with jim. use the darn qr code, as he said. sign up and learn more at cnbc.com/jointheclub. pretty busy auction calendar today and the next several days will be busy between pmis, isms, powell speaking at spellman on friday. dow is down 73.

got some news in consumer packaged goods today. kraft heinz, a buyback. mondelez gets upgraded at rbc today, 75 to 83. a name that's up 16% from the october low. dow down about 69.

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only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. let's get to jim and "stop trading." >> they're talking about the shares trading at 23 times calendar year '24. it also says that the software has not yet appreciated. so, look, that would be something if this stock -- they do the numbers, and the stock is not expensive versus apple, versus microsoft? i think it's pretty compelling. i do think they had a great quarter. i'm not as worried about china or the ai that they may not get right this year versus next year. i know that obviously their chips are so powerful that our government has to worry about them going places. >> we didn't mention the story

on the tape on some of the bulls turning on know novo and lilly because of those forward p/es. >> i think that will be determined by whether insurers pick them up next year. they have to have more studies, which shows there's some exciting things going on for the gop. it's interesting that people are starting to go back to mondelez, which was ground zero because of what they make. i don't know. i do think that they'll make portions. still the biggest drug ever. a shot, pill form. 67% of people don't want to take the shot. >> right. >> but i think it's going to be hard. it's going to drive it, copd, where regeneron had good news. and then a bunch of other studies. people say it's worth it, we'll save 700,000 people's lives because of diabetes and heart attack, and that will be it. >> tonight?

>> i want to find out how business is done in israel right now. i have wix on tonight. they do great stuff. and then you get a crowdstrike going, at do a good job, and i think it's time to put the other side on. i can't keep having people -- and i love george. it's been an amazing stock. microsoft is not a pitiful, helpless giant. >> that's on the cybersecurity side? >> exactly. thank you, david. >> see you tonight, jim. can't wait. mead money" 6:00 p.m. eastern ti. vix still sub-13. stay with us.

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the pulmonary embolism happened. but because i have 23andme, i was aware of that gene. that saved my life. good monday morning, and welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with david faber. we are live from post 9 of the nyse. carl is on assignment this hour. >> had to leave. >> we're here for you. looking at stocks, we're starting off a little weaker, not much. you have two points of strength in the s&p right now, consumer discretionary and reals state.

the nasdaq is pretty much unchanged. i will say we're having a great month so far as we near the end of the month of november. the nasdaq is up month to date 10.8%, s&p is up 8.5%. look at treasuries. that's big reason why, because we've seen them rally and yields come well off the highs, around 5%. the rally continues this morning with the 10-year at 4.4%, dollar under pressure, as well. we'll talk about some auctions this week. we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are some movers we're watching. affirm rallying on reports of a big spike in buy now, pay later on black friday. new data from adobe showing buy now, pay later spending jumped 47% on the holiday. watch energy, oil coming off five straight weeks of losses as brent crude falls below $80 a barrel and investors look ahead to the big opec plus meeting this week. and footlocker in the red as citi downgrades it from buy saying shares are overvalued

given what they call elevated inventory levels. the stock down another 3%. it's been a tough year for footlocker. >> it has. let's get some new home sales data because that was out moments ago. rick santelli has it for us. rick? >> yes. new home sales for month of october expected to be around 721,000, seasonally adjusted annualized units. a large miss. 679,000. that's down almost 6% from a big revision downward as well. last month, originally released at 759,000, was the largest since february of 2022. but the revision pops it down to 719,000, which makes it only the biggest since this past july. so, that also is something to pay very close attention to. and do remember one of the reasons, of course, is mortgage rates are very near 7.37% across

the country. for more in-depth coverage on this number, let's aim east and talk to diana olick. diana? >> this is a miss not just on the headline number but in a lot of details on this report. yes, sales down 5.6% month to month, but what's interesting is this number is based on signed contracts in october. that is people out shopping during the month when mortgage rates went over 8%. we've been talking about the builders buying down these mortgage rates, but clearly they couldn't do it enough during this month. we did see prices come down dramatically. the median price of a home sold in october, a new home, $409,300. that is down nearly 18% year over year, and the supply of new homes for sale jumped from a 6.9-month supply to a 7.8-month supply. builders have supply ready to go but can't sell it. going forward, the question is going to be we've seen mortgage rates pull back from 8% to

around 7.32% today, but we're not coming below 7% yet. so, are we going to see any improvement in sales as we go into this very usually dead winter season? this is not a good sign for the builders going forward, who actually had been doing very well. builder etf had been up 17.5% month to date, so lowerwere hel but not helping the builders build homes. >> diana olick with another miss on home sales. looking at the overall markets, two things stand out. obviously, brent below $80 a barrel, weakness in demand, and also potentially signs of deal-making in the middle east this weekend. some people are pointing to that as a more constructive tone for oil prices. but just generally, where we are in the economic cycle and the fact we can't get away without a big slowdown at least globally is going to weigh on oil demand. and you see that in the treasury market, as well, where there's some buying today. we have two auctions that people

are paying attention to, upsized auctions, the first at 11:30, the next at 1:00 p.m. we'll see if the demand is there because we've had a few options that were a little iffy lately, and that spooked the overall market. then, as far as economic data, it's going to get heavier next week, but we do have some important ones this week, the pce, the fed's preferred inflation gauge, and that comes thursday, then powell speaks at roundtable on friday, so that will be important. the baeige book is always good. that's on wednesday. we're wrapping up the end of earnings season, but we'll get i.t. spending we'll look at, dell, salesforce, kroger later in the week on how much pain the consumer is feeling around staples spending, which has been strong most of the year. but otherwise, we're just trying to figure out basically if the soft landing, no landing narrative continues, because that's been sort of path of

least resistance for the market. that's what's helped stocks. >> we start off 9:00 with discussions about the strength of black friday sales both in store and perhaps more importantly digitally. we had shopify join us. very enthusiastic. >> 22% growth. >> amongst the businesses that use their underlying business to basically power their retail. i don't know what you're hearing. you obviously like to pull out certain things -- >> i pull them all out stop what have you got? >> these are apples and oranges the way these companies measure, but these are some of the numbers we've gotten so far as far as, you know, from the data points. adobe online sales, for instance, looked very strong. the salesforce numbers looked strong. they all take different data points. but i think the common denominator is it was fine, black friday sales. there was some doom and gavin newsom going in, especially from

the companies for the forecast and holiday spending. some of the black friday send a false positive signal because it's one day. >> not necessarily reflective of the full season, which, by the way, is longer this year than last year, has a few extra days, i believe. >> yes. and there's also inflation that these aren't necessarily inflation-adjusted numbers, so the higher prices do weigh in. but what we're hearing and seeing anecdotally is the discounts are very big, the promotions are very big this year as well. that could be one reason why consumers are excited about it right now. i think overall, you know, it's fine. and, you know, i mentioned the consumer companies downgrading their forecast for the year. we actually, because we're 96% through earnings season, we had some good numbers about companies, chwhat they've actuay

done. 50 retailers have guided bottom line or implied bottom line for the fourth quarter, 43 out of 50 were light of street expectations. that's in the consumer sector. here's a great chart that our data team put together on just revenues versus earnings. the revenue misses, you can see, far exceeded the earnings misses. >> yep. >> 39% of companies missed revenue expectations. 61% beat. stark contrast to earnings successes. that 21-point spread was the biggest we've seen in eight years. you can't say demand is not slowing down looking at that chart. >> right. but companies are adjusting for it, getting more productivity. target is a perfect example on the retail but also in support of that chart, where same-store sales were down over 5% but profitability was great. >> like 20% from the year before. they're figuring out waiting to be more efficient and squeeze out productivity savings. you also have this good tailwind in the form of freight costs which have come down and input

costs that have come down. all of that is helping on the profitability front. it's one reason why i think the market is higher this year is that corporate earnings stood up. they held up. but expectations are coming down into q4 given what we've heard. >> let's talk about the broader markets a bit more. major averages are coming off four-day win streak. tony dwyer joins us now. what does chillax mean? >> i'm in the kitchen. how many times did the teenagers come home and did something what i thought was outsized and outrageous and i would have the normal dad reaction. and they would say, chillax. like, it wasn't as big a deal as they thought it was. that's what made me think about it. >> i told david to chillax five minutes ago. >> did you? yeah. we use it here too. like an old dad.

what about investors' approach to the market? >> you guys have been talking about the markets were fine. they were fine. when you're at a historical result level like october 27th, when bond yields are spiking on treasury supply and they're fine, that's a reason to expect a snappy bounce. the environment then was ripe for a rally in the bond market and a ral ly in the stock marke. now everything is kind of fine. you need that next catalyst. if i suggested that back on the 27th when we were looking for the rally, if i was going to be 9% or 10% by the emd of the year, everybody would have taken that hands down. it's good for a further rally and doesn't match with our data. by the end of the year, i think there's not a big story to make, and that's the chillax theme, is just i think that prices will end the year around where they are, so if they go up a little more, they'll pull back to where they are. if they go down some on an overbought correction, they'll lift back up to where they are.

>> got it. let's assume we have a year, as you say, roughly where we are right now. what are we thinking about next year at this point, tony? and how in any way are your forecasts being driven, what you're seeing on the ground right now in terms of retail sales out this earnings season? >> when they say we're going from a 27% chance of a recession to an 18% -- i don't know what that means. you expect a recession or you don't, and i do. we've had 22 months in a row of negative leading economic indicators. it's never been at this level without a recession. we have money supply still negative. all those things. this is all about money and how the money can end up creating better revenue and better earnings. as you just described with retailers, there was pretty good disappointment there. so, unfortunately, i think we're in this zombie environment where the expectations, until you disprove a soft landing, be it either an acceleration that only comes with a significant sustainable drop in interest

rates, or you actually go into a recession, that's the only way, to me, that you can really kick-start the improved outlook for money. the market typically bottoms in a recession because interest rates on mortgages, corporates, treasuries, they all come down significantly. even in soft landings they come down significantly. so our base case for next year is that we're in a recession. if we're not now, we will be. that will create a much more dramatic drop in yields than folks expect. and, guys, that is just going to kick-start a real significant recovery toward the end of the year. it really depends on the interest rate environment to where we are a year from now. i think we'll be in a better place but not without a little choppiness ahead for sure. >> if you think there's going to be a full-blown recession, tony, that's not in the market as far as earnings expectations and the s&p. that's little more than a few bumps. >> yes. >> a drawdown, like 20% that we could see in a recession-type

scenario? >> so, a lot of the markets, sara, as you know -- so when you're looking at the target, not a comment on target, or the retailers, the financial, back in october, when the banks are down 50%, when the equal-weighted stock is testing october 2022 lows, when you've had 33% from 52-week high for the average stock in the nyse, i do believe that a lot of the market is discounting a recession. in terms of earnings, my earnings sent me the data on the magnificent seven's impact on earnings, and earnings were negative 2.5%, as of early november, if you take out the magnificent seven. so, expectations for next year i think are a little high. but, guys, there's no world two years into this -- and sara, you guys know i've been pretty cautious for two years. we're two years into this as i've said so many times.

now is not the time to get negative. could you see a drawdown on the megacap tech stocks? i think probably for years relative to the equal-weighted stocks, they just haven't pulled back yet. most of the market already has. even as i look at my data this morning, guys, the average stock in the nyse is down 28% from its 52-week highs. and 53% of stocks are still down 20% or more from their 52-week highs. so, to say that the market's not discounting a recession i think is just -- the s&p 500 isn't because of the mag seven. >> you're saying the opposite, get rid of the mag seven or short them and go long the rest of the market? am i hearing that? >> no. i don't do shorts. excellent try there, though. no. you know, yes, i would underweight them. that's what people like me do. i'm not going to make a trading call. >> understood. >> i think you underweight them

relative to the rest of the market. again, it's not because i have this fancy opinion. it's because it's already hit so many -- if you look at the retailers and banks and you're telling me that they're discounting a soft landing and a good recovery, that would be news to me. >> tony, thank you. we'll be checking in along the way. appreciate it. >> happy thanksgiving, guys. have a great day. >> thanks, tony. here's our roadmap for rest of the hour. retail stock plays after a record-breaking black friday, names that should be on your shopping list. >> and the tables have turned for the ev market, at least some say. find out why and what it could mean for tesla. and another week of economic data and fedspeak, including jerome powell. nasdaq just went positive.

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it's true. plus when you buy your first line of mobile, you get a second line free. there are no term contracts or line activation fees. and you can bring your own device. oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for you. it's not just possible, it's happening. the final day of what is considered retail's most important five-day shopping stretch of the year. shoppers already seem to be breaking records. courtney reagan is live in chino, california. you're getting around there. wow. >> i sure am. we're on the west coast at a walmart distribution center for digital orders in california. these orders are the ones already coming in for cyber monday because most of these orders are filled within an hour of being placed. walmart-plus members got early

access to cyber monday deals as of 4:00 p.m. yesterday. walmart says the top sellers so far this morning are the apple air pods pro 2. these airpods, though, already sold out as is this dinosaur racetrack. so you have to get on quickly if you're looking for some of these hot deals because they're already selling fast or are sold out. when it comes to the total expectations for the day, adobe expects consumers will spend between $12 billion and $12.4 billion. today is expected to be the biggest online sales day of the year, up about 67% or so year over year. thanksgiving online sales grew 5.5% according to adobe. black friday grew 7.5%. saturday and sunday up 8.1% and 6.4% year over year. the firm forecasts thanksgiving through cyber monday here today will represent almost 17% of total holiday online season

sales. mastercard says overall black friday spending grew 2.5%, 8.5% online, and 1.1% in store, again, over the last black friday. jewelry and apparel, furniture and furnishings did lag. adobe and mastercard, this is important, is not inflation adjusted. but adobe points out for its retail categories that it tracks, prices are down 6% in this october compared to last october. so, if you do account for inflation, it's actually higher demand driving these higher sales. that's important to point out. when it comes to in store, sensormatic says more shoppers hit stores on black friday than last year. health and beauty were the strongest and home the weakest. that matches what mastercard said. ulta and elf are top picks this

morning because of the health and beauty trend. deutsche bank, goldman sachs calling out the health and beauty wellness. lululemon being called an outperformer. dick's sporting goods and best buy. there was noticeable out-of-stocks in toys at the target stores they looked at. deutsche bank also seeing trends at department stores like kohl's, macy's, nordstrom and other stores. back to you. >> any big surprises? is this the overall strength a little surprising? >> i think so. i think especially that in-store number. i was so curious to see what it was going to be like this year when it's almost the first can we call it normal shopping period in several years because of what we have gone through with the pandemic and all of us shifting our habits, whether it was in the way we celebrated or in the way we shopped. i think that was really surprising. one thing that was not surprising is that we saw that in-store traffic pick up later

in the day on black friday because so many deals are available online in identical fashion and/or earlier in the season. i think this just goes to show you that there is still dry powder for consumers. they are ready and willing to spend. >> courtney reagan. thank you. >> thank you. our next guest likes lowe's, b.j.'s, and others. a smattering of retails. michael, is it they're executing well or are themes working well with the consumer? >> this is the holiday play, for the rest of the year, the next five weeks. we showed in our reports on black friday and this morning that we were talking earlier about where we were seeing a lot of crowds. that's one thing. we're talking about which stocks perform this time of year. what we found is actually maybe counterintuitively, the less a retailer makes this time of year, the better the stock historically does. names like lowe's, o'reilly,

b.j.'s, all they risk is in the spring or summer and it's behind them. they make a relatively small part of their annual profits this time of year, and historically those stocks tend to do better. lowe's has outperformed the market from black friday to year end in 10 of the last 13 years and by a couple hundred basis points. so, again, not exciting, not really a holiday play in the sense of that's where consumers are shopping, but those are the stocks that work this time of year. on the other hand, best buy, dick's, they don't tend to work this well this time of the year. >> i'm curious about them. do you still do the store visits in the mall, check-ins? is it still valuable? is there anything concrete you can point to that translates into what's going on at these places? >> yes, i'm old-school. sure, we still do the store

visits. i have my team out. we pick up anecdotal evidence, nothing more than that, but after doing it a lot of years you get a feel as to what's going on. most importantly is inventories. again, that is anecdotal, but i can tell you in our business this year we just didn't see -- inventories seem well controlled, and we showed that in a note this morning, as well, which we quantified. but there's plenty of inventory in the stores but doesn't seem overly stuffed this year as we saw in the last couple years. we saw some promotional activity but nothing to us seems out of bounds at this point. there's some value, sure. i've got to be out there this weekend. >> what about the big gap we're seeing in terms of spending categories? you like lowe's, but home improvement and do it yourself have been a weak spot for consumer spending. we just got another disappointing new home sales number. it feels like, even though sales are holding up, there is a wide discrepancy as far as where

consumers are spending. >> anything home related is much weaker. sporting goods held up well. lowe's, i was referring to the stocks that outperform from black friday through year end. but, you know, home is just weak right now. we think it will continue to be. beauty is a very strong category. sporting goods, dick's surprised to the upside reporting last week. consumers are choosing where they spend, and at this point home is still not it. >> we'll talk to the ceo of stockx next hour and find out more about that business. michael, thank you very much for some of those picks. the anti-holiday outperformers. >> exactly. >> michael baker. you don't need to go to the mall. you just need to go on instagram. that's where the influencers are with what's hot and trending. that's how i found out abercrombie & fitch was hot about six months ago. >> thanks for the tip, sara. tiktok also? >> also.

yes, of course. i'm a little old for it. >> you? come on. let's head to a break. >> thank you. >> we'll have re omon what is sending some shares higher.

welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm dominic chu. most sectors in the s&p are slightly lower to start off the week with energy and industrials among the biggest laggards. real estate is an outperformer today relatively and one of the top gainers this month, up around 10%. within that group, we've keeping an eye on shares of crown castle, inc., management saying it's built a stake of roughly $2 billion in the wireless tower and fiber-optics giant. elliott says it's been a failure under their current ceo, so the firm is pushing for leadership changes and a strategic review of their fiber business. it's the second time elliott has pushed for changes at crown castle in the past few years.

up 5%, sara. back downtown to you folks at the new york stock exchange. >> thank you, dom. dom chu. still to come, a look at one consumer name outperforming on the year and getting a new price target this morning. can you guess which it is? and a quick programming note -- a week away from another cnbc work summit, this one on the promise and peril of ai when it comes to work and your business. scan the qr code to learn more, or visit ccentcowo fnbves.m/rkor details. meet gold bond daily healing. a powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals, and smooths dry skin. with 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins.

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welcome back. here's your "cnbc news update." the suspect in the shooting of three college students of palestinian descent in vermont is expected to be arraigned in court this morning. the 48-year-old was arrested

overnight in connection with the saturday night violence. the fbi is investigating the shooting. all three students are in the hospital being treated for their injuries. it is the last day of a four-day pause in fighting in gaza, but the israeli prime minister and hamas indicated their openness to extending the cease-fire, and a senior arab official with direct knowledge of negotiation confirms to nbc news that there will be a truce extension. details are still being finalized, and there's still a chance the deal could collapse. and pope francis postponed a series of meetings today because of a lung inflammation and breathing difficulties. according to the vatican, the nearly 87-year-old pontiff had a ct scan that ruled out pneumonia. on sunday, one of the pope's aides read his normal sunday message because of issues with his lungs. back to you. >> thank you. let's talk about the markets a bit. of course we are about an how were into trading. you can see where we stand right

now. the nasdaq kicking up, the slightest of gains. bob pisani joins us on set with a bit more. >> i just got back. it's a tradition. my wife and i abandon my family for thanksgiving and go to a caribbean island. we were in antigua. wonderful people. i have never seen a greater disparity between what people are doing, which is spending ridiculous amounts of money -- the place was packed with brits, canadians, and americans -- and what they're actually saying, which is worried about spending lots of money. there was a heavy degree of pessimism, and i couldn't understand why. i got into disputes with some fund managers saying you do understand the market's really doing well and the economy in the is u.s. is holding up really well. they seem not to want to believe it. look at the s&p. i kept saying, you know, interest rates are going down, the reits have been doing well. tech is 1% from a 52-week high.

ark is up 30% this month. the only thing down in the s&p is energy, and with good reason. oil has been down. natural gas has been down. that's good for consumers, so nobody complaints. but nobody wanted to believe me. i got into these arguments with people saying -- at one point i was exasperated. the s&p is up 19% this year. do you folks sitting around with european ya colyour pina colada >> you were walking around the beach and -- >> they don't want to believe me. the s&p is up 8.5% this month, the best gain since july of 2022. >> what about the magnificent seven? >> this is why indexing has won out. this is why there's $12 trillion in the s&p that people don't want to think about. fourth best month of the last 12 years. i got in an argument with a guy saying this is unsustainable. i've been putting this chart up,

this full screen up, for years and years. the s&p 500 advances 20% or more 36% of the time. we're up 19%. we're about to push into 20%. 36% of the time the s&p is up 20% or more. add it up. 57% of the time the s&p 500 is up 10% or more a year. and look at the down times. only 27% is it down on a year. so, 3 out of 4 years the s&p 500 is up every year. this is why investing in the stock market is a fantastic long-term bet as long as you stay in broad indexes. but nobody wanted to believe me. everyone seemed to believe there was going to be a downturn next year and this imminent recession everyone is waiting for is somehow going to happen. then another argument -- >> god, bob. you're not making any friends in antigua. >> trends are working and they hated that. people hate talking about seasonal trends. don't tell me about that.

>> especially relaxing on a vacation and bob pisani is coming to them five pina coladas in. >> the best month of the year is november. december in a preelection year, the average gain is 2.9%. by the way, thanks to ryan, who puts out these stats all the time. good friend of mine. you say these things, and they want to dismiss it. my point ises there some kind of mental, cognitive dissonance going on where people are spending a lot of money at a fancy resort in the caribbean, and yet they seem to be thinking that somehow the future is -- there's something dire going on. when i asked them about this dissonance, they shrug. they don't want to believe it. >> follow what they do, not what they say. >> exactly. >> this guy at the bar is screaming at me that i'm not positive enough on the stock market. >> have another old-fashioned rum punch. maybe you're right. i don't know. let's have another.

>> sounds like a fun trip, bob. >> i didn't make any friends. david is right. >> apparently not. you always make friends everywhere you go. come on. >> weird guy standing over there talking about the market. >> you were still yelling at them. >> bob with the pina coladas. thank you, bob. happy to have you back. >> thanks. lots of data and fedspeak this week, but our next guest says the fed is done for now and expect some turbulence along the way. diane swonk, it's a good time to check in with you because the consensus peoples like it's coalescing around the soft landing, the fed is done, it will start cutting rates in may of next year, and that's what's keeping the market in a good mood. does all that happen? >> it is what the market is in a good mood about. i have it at june, but that's splitting hairs. bob pisani sort of ill

straigstraight -- illustrated or summarized my holidays. the cognitive dissonance we see between the economic aggregates along with the marketing a regalts, between that and what people are feeling about the economy is very real. i think that's important to understand. it's sort of an i.q. test. the you look around and say is the world as good as it was when it hit its peak in january of 2000? no, it's a lot harder than it was. we try not to talk too much about politics around the holiday table, because it makes for a hard thanksgiving. everyone agreed their discontent with congress is at an all-time high. so, there really is a real dissonance, even though we see a soft landing. a soft landing is not a no-landing scenario. and we are starting to see some cracks in the foundation, but i do think, you know, the consumer has proven itself remarkably resilient, and the rest of the world is looking for the u.s.

consumer to remain an atlas. we expect spending to toe v slow but not collapse as we go into 2024 by the u.s. consumer. that is a very important scenario because if the u.s. consumer does not fully collapse and hit that contraction of full-blown recession, it does mean that the u.s. economy will achieve a soft landing. but a soft landing does not mean, like i said, no landing. and that is still a rise in the unemployment rate. so, a soft landing for -- in the aggregates is still hard for some. >> but that also assumes, diane, that inflation just, you know, keeps gliding down to the fed's target, where it feels comfortable enough to keep stopping and then cutting interest rates. is that sure to happen? we're going to get a pce number on thursday. the fedspeak so far, they're pushing back, we may have work to do. >> they're pushing back because they want the bond market to do some of the heavy lifting for them, and they'd like to be done

with interest rates. we are only done with interest rate hikes if, in fact, the bond market doesn't rally too much and we don't see bond yields come down so much that they actually stimulate growth again. this is something we'll be watching can very carefully. i think it's very important we listen to fedspeak because they're going to have a chance in december whether or not to put an additional rate hike in their forecast, and that may be something they want to communicate if the bond market continues to rally and they get worried about inflation not just coming down, they want it to stay down below 3%. we're still not below that threshold on core inflation. they want to get there and stay there for a period of time, not months but quarters, before they cut rates. and even then, the descent on rates is going to be much slower than the ascent. i keep saying they're waiting for everything to go back to normal. what was normal? the 2010s were not normal, and i think that is something that people are still coming to terms with. >> it does feel like the meeting in december, i think the 13th,

gives them a cheap way to reset guidance, because they get to put out the forecast for next year. and they can just, what, keep it high for all of next year, push out the idea of rate cuts, as you say, add even in a rate hike? do you think that's a risk for the market, or is the market going to continue to dismiss that? >> i think it is a risk for if market, although, you know, there is this sort of, you know, tug of war that we're seeing between the fed -- the fed likes the idea of a soft landing. the fed is delighted. they really believed we were going to get a recession, and i believe them to. we haven't yet. that doesn't mean no landing or turbulence. we're seeing delinquencies move up the food chain from subprime into the third quintile of incomes. that's $50,000 to $70,000 earning households that still isn't in those top echelons that bob pisani was vacationing with. but i think it's importantto remember that this is where we're going to see the belt tightening occur in the u.s.

economy. >> thank you, diane. really good to have you today. diane swonk. >> she won't be haranguing beachgoers at the bar, i don't think. >> much calmer than that. did bob ever come back from vacation with great insight and color? >> vacation is just work for him. up next, check out this mystery chart, stock is hitting a new 52-week high, up more than 34% this year, 34.7%. a new street-high target this morning. we are going to reveal what stock that is and, get this, we'll talk to the analyst who made the call.

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the mystery chart is pinterest. shares hit a new 52-week high right now, and stock got a new street-high price target as well. our next guest initiating it with a $48 a share target. why, dan? why do you like it, and why is it going higher? >> thanks, david. good morning. a lot of people are focused on what pinterest is doing with amazon where they're partnering with them to help amazon bring in more ad buyers and more targeted ads to their platform, lots of focus on that. that's a big positive for them, you know, a big driver of revenue. the thing we don't think people are focused on enough is the fact that they're going to be able to save money on their sales expense by partnering with amazon and bringing in other partners later. we just think it's something that's underappreciated. management has talked about it a

little bit but not a whole lot. that was really the focus of the bullish outlook that we started this morning with. >> do we have any data on where these third-party ad partnerships are? and what are your expectations in terms of growth? >> so, not a whole lot just yet. amazon is the first one to launch. a they're just doing it in the u.s. right now. management has said that they're relatively happy with the tests so far. i'm sure we'll find out that they saw a lot more progress from it at the beginning of the holiday shopping weekend and through the end of the year. they expect partnerships to become a little more material starting next year. and like i said, we probably expect them to expand it beyond the u.s. as well as ad partners in addition to amazon. in terms of total revenue growth, we're pretty much in line with where their guidance has been, which is mid to high double digits over time. we just think these third-party partnerships can be pretty

mat material, and in the next five years we think they'll make up 50% of their total revenue overall. >> is generative ai a threat or an opportunity for pinterest? >> i would say mostly opportunity right now. it's not a huge focus for them. it's not as significant as it is with the big guys like google and meta and amazon right now. there are some pilot tests right now, for example, to create generative search guides to help users when they're on the platform. they've launched creative studio, which is going to help advertisers create cust miceomi ads to create more personalized ones for individuals. both of those things are kind of similar to what we've seen from the other big platforms. you know, it is a searching platform. it is a place where people come to ask questions. so we think genre terative ai a chat box is important for

google. but the visual nature of the platform is a little differentiated for them. still early in their journey for generative ai right now. >> dan, thank you. >> okay. thanks, guys. >> dan solomon. bitcoin is in the red thicr. let's get to kate with headlines you may have missed. >> good morning. the big headline in this industry is the fall of another crypto titan, known as cz. he stepped down as ceo of binance last week. he pleaded guilty to money laundering charges after sam bankman-fried was found of criminal charges. cz is asking for a judge's permission to leave the u.s. before sentencing in february. he holds dual citizenship in canada and the uae. his lawyers saying the fact his home and family are in the uae does not make him a flight risk preventing him from returning to them would be punitive, as they

put it. his company paid a report $4.3 billion fine after a three-year investigation from doj, treasury and the cftc. the ftc has sued multiple crypto exchanges, including coinbase. coinbase ceo telling me a shakeout of crypto's business of what he called bad actors he sees it as a good thing. and allows the industry to, quote, turn the page. investors say that guilty plea illuminates some of the uncertainty in these markets. bitcoin held up amid that news. still above 36,000, at least this morning. back to you. >> thank you. coming up at 11:00, the ceo of stocksx, his read on consumer and brands winning. he joins us next hr.ou dow is down 54 points. don't go anywhere. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, unlocking the power of thinkorswim,

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now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. welcome back to "squawk on the street." just a year and a half after a hybrid fell behind evs in new vehicle sales, leadership in the race has changed. phil lebeau joins us to explain

and what the data is showing. >> the data shows hybrids are hot. you talk the industry, almost everybody says the same thing. automakers, with the exception of tesla and rivian look -- i'll turn my microphone on. there you go. let's show you the data. hybrids in terms of their relativity to evs and i.c.e. internal combustion engines are now under 80% on a monthly basis. this is year-to-date data. we'll see that continue to erode. in terms of hybrids, the amounts of toyota said it all. a week ago they said we're only making hybrid camrys. makes sense. look at the rav4 models and the other toyota models that are red hot. toyota have long said hybrids is where they'll make their money

and they've been successful. at a time when a lot of automakers are struggling, they are continuing to have pretty successful years. shareholders are rewarding them. one other stock i want to show you, ford. the f150 hybrid, we talk a lot about the lightning, but the f-150 hybrid, sales are up 46% in the third quarter versus last year. so, what you're looking at is hybrids are where people want to go. the evs will eventually surpass hybrids. that's going to happen. but for the foreseeable future, i mean maybe the next year, year and a half, two years, because so many more people will be buying hybrids, that's where you'll see the growth in terms of sales versus evs. >> right. but why? why do we think that's the case, phil? >> a couple of things. far cheaper. the a -- until you see evs come down under $40,000 consistently, they'll be much more attractive.

and there's charging anxiety. people like getting some ev benefit but i'm not crazy about the idea of going completely electric. it's annoying for road trips. especially if you have to charge. it's anecdotally. ieayo a lot more "squawk on the street" straight ahead.

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airlines grappling with pricing. are more fare hikes on the horizon? the former continental ceo is with us along with raymond james analyst. rick perry on why the market is so concerned with opec's next move despite record u.s. crude production. the ceo of stockx, the latest cyber numbers after set a plaque friday record. take a look at the marke