hostages in a deal to release pri prisoners. and salesforce jumps on the guidance. and elon musk apologizing for seemingly giving credit de credence for anti-semitic comments. we will show you what he said. maybe not uncut. it is thursday, november 30th, 2023. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on

cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. he is back from the deal book conference. congratulations. >> what are they saying? was your mind mush? >> my mind is mush right now. it has to be. >> did you look at oura? >> i did not check it. >> you didn't sleep? you're too amped up? >> i was trying to process. we'll talk about it. >> i can't process it all. >> you can't process one interview, much less -- >> trying to think through your feelings about what you just saw. it was something to behold. the combination of all of the interviews and elon inafter

interview. >> illuminating. discomforting. i'm talking about elon. >> to look at all of these people so important in the world and trying to figure out how they are thinking. that is what i took away from it. deep insight. i felt all of the guests rose to the occasion. >> he is so off the charts brilliant -- i don't know if we have an idea. watching it was illuminating. >> we'll get to it in a second. >> he was so honest. >> i was happy with the candor that all of the guests brought throughout the day. particularly with elon. >> how did that work? >> it was the range of it. i was trying to having covered him for years and we talked with

walter about it. there are multiple elons. in that hour and a half, you got to see all of it. the low points and high points and the deeply thoughtful points about all sorts of things. >> how long was he supposed to talk? he said as long as you want? >> we knew he would be the final interview. we would see where it went. we would ask as many questions as we could. it felt like that was the right time. i could have talked to him for hours more. we ended up talking after it was over. >> it was amazing. we will talk more about it in a moment. andrew, congratulations. >> thank you. let's look at the u.s. equities at this hour. yesterday, things were unchanged for the better part of things. this morning, there are strong gains. dow futures up 200 points. nasdaq indicated up 40 points.

s&p futures indicated up by 9 points. if you want to look at the gains for november as we prepare to close out the month, dow is up 2.7%. the s&p is up8%. the nasdaq is up 11%. massive gains. we are building on that with the futures. let's look at treasury yields. that has been the story as treasury yields have come down. the ten-year yield is 4.3%. the two-year yield is 4.7%. you are talking about the lowest levels for treasuries. the two-year yield was at the lowest level since july. that is a huge pullback. that is driving equity prices higher. salesforce lifting the dow this morning. that stock up after earnings of $2.11 a share beat the street expectation of $2.07.

revenue was up 11% from a year ago. that was in line with expectations. salesforce raising guidance and the ceo marc benioff spoke to jim cramer on "mad money" last night. >> jim, we did 1,000 new data cloud customers. isn't that amazing? add to that another driver for the quarter is our einstein gpt copilot. these are customers really putting a.i. to use. that is what i think is starting to really drive our growth in the exciting new ways. >> the stock is up 90% for the year to date. we're going to talk about elon musk and that interview. he doesid not hold back.

we talked about advertisers pulling off x. >> stop. don't advertise. >> you don't want them to advertise? >> no. >> what do you mean? >> if somebody is going to try to blackmail me with advertising -- blackmail me with money? go [ bleep ] yourself. but go [ bleep ] yourself. is that clear? i hope it is. hey, bob, if you're in the audience. >> let me ask you then -- >> that's how i feel. don't advertise. >> that was a reference to bob iger, the ceo of disney, who had been with us earlier in the day. they pulled their advertising from x over the comments that elon musk had made on twitter a week and a half ago that raised questions and concerns throughout the country and world

about anti-semitism and the like. i want to show you the next piece. a lot of issues are getting overshadowed. >> bob was there? >> he had not been there at the time. he was there when the vice president was there. he was sticking around after that. i believe he had a board meeting because there was disney news later in the day. >> stuck around for the vice president? >> there was a board meeting. >> musk responding to criticism over that tweet that created the firestorm. this is what he had to say. take a look. >> i'm sorry for that post. it was foolish of me. of the 30,000, it was the most foolish post i've ever done. i tried to clarify six ways to sunday. at least, i think over time, it

will be obvious, apart from anti-semitic, i'm pro. all of the evidence in my track record would support that. >> i would encourage you to watch the interview. this is the first time he publicly apologized for it. it was a surprise to me and surprise to the public where we had seen him take the trip to israel. it was viewed as an apology tour of some sort in the midst of the tweet. he said no. he said that was not what had happened. he said he was already planning to go there. a lot of people saw the tweet when he went to israel and said actions speak louder than words. that was his aapoloapology. he never emoted about that tweet. if you get to the piece of the

interview -- >> it seemed isincere. >> did he explain? >> i asked what did you mean by that. he explained it. >> he walked back. >> when you talk about seeing the many sides of elon musk, that is the example. he was thoughtful and apologetic. never meant to do that. he said it was stupid. i genuinely believed what he was saying. >> in that moment. >> i don't think he was in any way, referencing or credence to the crazy conspiracy theory. was it an accolade of that conspiracy? i don't think musk, at that point -- >> i think he knows it was a mistake. not just the condemnation from the white house and everywhere else, but i'm jewish.

a lot of people who loobked at that tweet and saying why are you doing this. i said to him directly. there are general anti-semites who said he's with us. i think in that moment, if it wasn't before that moment, it was then he understood. >> i don't think he cares about the white house criticism. the issue with the biden white house and not invited to any summit is clear. >> we hope to show that tape, too. i was talking to somebody after the interview. in "us" magazine have pages that say just like us. you can say is elon musk just like us? people look at all sorts of people with a great title. the truth is that everybody is a

person. they have feelings. i hope i'm not coming across too empathetic to that piece of it. go ahead. >> here's what i don't understand. i understand his issues with gates and that stock issue. i don't feel the same with the advertisers who decide to no longer advertise on x because they don't like what is there and don't want their brand associated. it is not their job to pay for free speech. if my brand is not helped by the money i'm spending here, i'm not spending the money. that is not blackmail. >> it is not -- he said very directly, the people will see it -- >> and say it is the takedown of the company. >> elon, it may be they blame you because those companies are going to say i don't want to be in an environment where

something like this is going on happen. >> why hurt my brand being associated with stuff that is winding up on this thing? >> we sold 300,000 cars last year. ev. gm had 26. he had that ready to go. what is gm doing? gm's extra profits from internal combustion truck is going to a buyback. >> mary barra was on yesterday. >> all that the leading gm company in the transition. >> that goes back to this issue. >> he said he will not vote for biden no matter what. i don't think he would vote for trump. he did not come out and say it. he said it was a bad choice. the audience said welcome to 2024. >> let me show you a little bit more. we talked about openai.

elon musk was asked about the openai saga with the company. >> openai was started and meant to be open source. i named it openai after open source. it is, in fact, a closed source. it should be renamed super closed source for maximum profit a.i. this is what it actually is. it has gone from an open source foundation to suddenly a 9$90 billion closed source. i don't know how you go from here to there. i don't know. is this legal? i think sam altman has a strong moral compass. he sweats it over questions of what is right.

if he felt strongly enough to want to fire sam, well, the world should know the reason. >> have you talked to him? >> i reached out. he doesn't want to talk to anyone. >> have you talked to other people behind the scenes as this is happening? >> i talked to a lot of people. i have not found anyone who knows why. have you? >> i think we are all still trying to find out. >> look, one of two things. either it was a serious thing and we should know what it is or it was not a serious thing and the board should resign. >> that is just a piece of a long interview that touches so many other places. >> it then went -- you know, it reads like science fiction. he said what was funny is when will it be smarter than the

smartest human? the smartest human? he said in less than three years. smarter. i think he was not necessarily talking about himself, but really brilliant. >> i also thought about a nugget that not a lot of people picked up on yet. he said and we talked about copyright ip and how the models train on it. sam altman said we don't train on copyright material. he said that is a lie. they have been training on copyright material the entire time. >> what does that mean? >> we also got into the fact that he has possibly a digital gold mine in twitter. all of the content that lives on x is his. when he is training, he is training on that content. unlike others where you get the

copyrighted things -- he's got it. we've all been putting that content there. >> what if we are putting somebody's content? >> if you are putting up information from cnbc or nbc or wall street journal or new york times, areyou are doing that on fair use basis. you could take five or ten people which post ten quotes from an article. it becomes the tentire article. >> it is a more dangerous entity. he said the latest episode may have been there is something we don't know. it reminded me of 2001 and someone found the monolith. someone found the death star. >> was there something there or not and we should know? ro khanna said he would look into that when he was here this

week. coming up, tesla is set to deliver the first cyber truck today. you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. ♪♪ we're not writers, but we help you shape your financial story. ♪♪ we're not an airline, but our network connects global businesses across nearly 160 markets. ♪♪ we're not a startup, but our innovation labs use new technologies to help keep your information secure. ♪♪ we're not architects, but we help build stronger communities. ♪♪ we're not just any bank.

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welcome back to "squawk box." tesla is hosting a cyber struck delivery event. it has dealt with production problems. yesterday, elon musk described it as the biggest event on earth. we have tim higgins with us.

let's talk about that and get into the comments that elon made yesterday, tim. in terms of what you think we will hear today on the cyber truck. is this the biggest on the planet? >> not really. it is not a huge volume production for tesla or product for the auto industry. why it is important for elon ands tesla and investors is a halo vehicle. the bet is it will bring eyeballs to the brand and maybe they get into a model 3 or model y and keep the hype into the next few years with the next wave of sales, if you will. is it the biggest ever? it may get a lot of attention. that may be overwhelmed by yesterday's activities. >> let me ask you about that. what was your reaction to his comments and what is your reaction to his comments as it relates to x and how it relates

to other businesses like tesla and spacex? >> it is elon musk forgot what business he is in with twitter/x. that is the business of selling advertisers. he wants to be in the business of content creation and entertainment. at the end of the day, the business makes money off advertisers. you have to keep the advertisers happy. when he goes after them, it is hard to see them do business with him in the future. it is a different scenario with tesla and spacex. he got to the idea on stage with you, saying if you want to go to space, you have to use spacex or if you want an electric vehicle, you have to go with tesla. the strength with the companies is evidence. his mindset was on display. >> do you think that those things -- do you think the things he says on x impact

sales, if you will, when it comes to tesla? both for good and bad. are there people who hear certain comments on x or comments during the interview yesterday -- by the way, he has a lot of fans and supporters. people who say he is crazy and others say he is fabulous. go elon. do you think the breakdown of whoever the people are online taking those positions is man tes manifesting itself at the tesla dealership? >> yes and no. he is praised for some comments in some areas of the world. he is standing up against the woke mob or corporate action which is putting people down. on the other hand, people are upset with the comments. you go back two weeks ago when he hewas doing the tweets that were offensive and people were

saying i'm not buying a tesla. i'm buying a rivian. the challenge is the overall market is a challenge for tesla selling electric vehicles. it is not helping himself in the challenging position. >> tim, you followed him for a long time. how far do you think the apology went yesterday toward persuading those who were concerned over the comments two weeks ago? >> he is not a guy prone to apologizing and dwelling on past mistakes. i can't remember many times he has done that publicly. in some ways, he went a long way. did it resonate? did people take it seriously? some people did. i think some people were maybe, perhaps, still offended by what he is doing and saying. >> tim higgins, we appreciate you joining us at this early hour. good to see you. look 23forward to seeing you so.

>> thank you. you weren't here when we were talking about the pullman jenkins piece. his piece said that the six-word tweet from elon probably wasn't intentionally trying to conjure up the conspiracy theory. certain mainstream media entities took that into and made that leap to that's what he was doing. yet, it showed how little msm matters now in cancelling people. he is still going to the dealbook conference. if people truly thought -- he was already beyond where we thought he was a really bad guy. >> i know we have to go to commercial. i will say a lot of people called me prior to this and are you still having him and should

you have him. this is about what we do. >> interrogate. >> we need to talk about ideas. we need to interrogate ideas and do it for good ideas and especially bad ideas. >> you are not going to have that crazy guy trump had. he had him at mar-a-lago. you will not have him at the dealbook conference. you will not have a true anti- anti-semite? >> i think people of consequence no matter the views of the world, you need to have the conversations. that is about speech and journalism. >> you didn't look at him. >> fuentes. >> you weren't furious with elon. he had already avoided total cancellation from that tweet which he could have -- if it was worse, there are tweets where he

could not recover from. >> he was on the guest list for a long time. >> i know. the jenkins piece was certain elements wanted to destroy him and it won't happen. you told him if the last three years, he moved far right. >> he is frustrated with biden. he is talking about supporting people about ramaswamy especially with the views on climate. >> he did. >> it is true. climate is such a central issue to him. >> we'll talk about that off camera. >> if that is the singular issue and yota abo tu lkuthe other side of that -- >> no one would disagree. >> "squawk box" will be right back. efied come suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today.

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charlie munger died this week at the age of9 99 years old. myunger was a reader and spoke about the love of reading over the decades and recommended non fiction books. he told me he had been reading the books that so many of his friends sent him. he said he had been binge watching an old favorite. >> i think i heard that you have been binge watching "seinfeld," is that right? >> i have gotten so i have seen the reruns twice. i want to see them a third time. i do like a bunch of self-centered people making their own decisions. it feels to my life.

it is utterly ridiculous. people go out of their way about or worries. they solve their problems with humor. >> a show about nothing. >> yes, yes, but it's not really about nothing. it's about the humor of life being used to make life enduring by kidding one another which is what they're doing. they are amusing us all . >> charlie finds a lesson to teach us. you can watch the interview tonight at 8:00 p.m. eastern time. you can listen to more of the interview this weekend with the special "sawquk pod" edition. "squawk box" will be right back.

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to possibilities. we're easterseals. good morning. welcome back to "squawk box." we are live at the nasdaq market site in times square. look at the futures. dow opening up 180 points.

s&p is opening up 8 points and the nasdaq opening up close to 30 points higher. here is what kevin mccarthy had to say at yesterday's forum. >> america has to stop putting politics into everything we do. we watch tv stations based on political believes. we don't get news. we get opinions. we drive ourselves to this place. we fundamentally need to have an open discussion about one of our biggest challenges in the macro and micro world and who has the best plan to solve it. >> joining us is punch bowl fou founder jake csherman. we were talking about what mckcartney had to say to andrew

yesterday. >> i thought it was a great interview. number one, kevin mccarthy is the most, and this is not the insult, the most political person i've met. i covered him my whole career and his whole federal career. that's who he has always been. he ascended in the house republican conference because he was political. he was overtly political. nothing wrong with that, specifically. it is interesting to hear him say that now. something else that wass were hs comments on trump. he did not say trump would be a great president, but he thought he would be better than biden. one thing mccarthy said was if trump runs a 2024 campaign based on revenge and grievances, he will not win the presidency in 2024. all things i imagine that kevin

mccarthy would never say these things if he were current speaker of the house. >> let us follow-up on this clip. president biden's age came up during the conversations. both with mccarthy and vice president kamala harris. here's what happened. >> the reason why i'm asking the question is because of his age. to say it objectively, that's the issue. kevin mccarthy was here this morning. he was in stark terms effectively said that he did not believe that president biden was the same president biden that he used to talk to. >> i did not negotiate the debt ceiling with biden. i could not negotiate the debt ceiling with biden. >> supplexplain that. >> it was policy. he talked from cards. >> with all due respect, when

anyone who has had the experience he recently had, i don't think he is a judge of negotiations. that being said, that being said, that being said, to the point because it is a point that has been made -- first of all, i would say age is more than a chronological fact. not only is he absolutely authoritative in rooms around the globe, but in the oval office meeting with members of congress and leaders of d industry, i will tell you he is in front of och and everyone in front of the room in how we can resolve issues. >> jake, what do you think? >> i think several things. mccarthy is right he did not negotiate the debt ceiling

directly with joe biden. mccarthy did not do the negotiating by himself. this is what i keep hearing from house and senate democrats, they are going home and hearing about the president's age and ability or inability or unwillingness to address that from the white house is something that will or could hurt biden. this is a concern absolutely. it is not a concern, by the way, that is new. it is a concern we heard for years. i've heard from people on the negotiating team and mccarthy was negotiating with biden and not talking from cards. i think this is not a steady thing across the board. it is not consistent. >> were yyou surprised he said that directly? >> yes and no. i'm surprised he said that publicly.

mccarthy has taken digs at biden before. he used to get political points. >> why shouldn't it be public, jake? if there are public concerns -- >> if he has good days and bad days. he is president every day, jake. the other thing -- i don't want to disparage the vice president, but one of the biggest reasons that people are worried about biden's age is kamala harris is a heartbeat away from the presidency. that's one of the reasons people are frightened about president biden's age. you didn't say that, andrew? you couldn't say that? >> no. everyone's eyes are on you -- we can play that part of the tape, too. i said to her directly. >> you are more worried about her than him in the state he is in right now. >> look, you can look at the polls and approval ratings for

her relative to biden and trump. we we went through that. her polls are not reflective of what she is seeing in america. i'm not doing the polls. i don't know where we are in polling season, if you will. that was the answer she gave. some found it satisfying. >> jake, if people have real questions, why shouldn't it be said out loud? that is what makes american voters unhappy. the inner circle of people in power who know things that the rest of us don't. if there are real concerns, i'd like to hear it and i'd like to hear from other people if that is real or not real. >> i didn't say it shouldn't be said publicly. i said mccarthy, when he was speaker of the house, had to maintain a relationship with the white house that could be used to legislate and used on

national security. he is somebody who had to deal with the white house all the time. he would be a little bit less likely to take a shiv to the president. that is a fact. i think in all facets of life and business and politics, people have conkconversations privately they don't have publicly. members of the president's party have been concerned about his age for a long time. that is not a secret. that is reflected in the public dia dialogue. >> do you hear that from the republicans or democrats who have access to him? >> most republicans don't have access to him. that's just the reality of it. from some democrats, but the vast majority of them, nope. some democrats. mostly from republicans who are relaying stories from the few republicans who have access to him. >> okay. jake, thank you. we appreciate it. >> thank you. as we head to break, check out the major currencies.

the dollar has had a terrible month. you will see the levels we are talking about. dollar is higher right now against the yen. the dollar has been on a slide in november. on this expectation that the fed is done raising rates and may cut teras sooner rather than later. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: currency check is sponsored by interactive brokers. the best informed investors choose interactive brokers. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, unlocking the power of thinkorswim,

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welcome back. ford issuing or joining gm in guidance to wall street. phil lebeau is here with details. hi, phil. >> becky, this is guidance for ford for 2023. it pulled guidance once the uaw strike was on. now they have that, ford is saying for the full year, it is adjusted ebit profit forecast, what it expects to earn is $10 billion to $10.5 billion. adjusted free cash flow for the year coming in between $5 billion to $5.5 billion. it was 9.1 b$9.1 billion last y. it estimates the uaw contract

over the life of the contract will cost the company $8.8 billion. there is a hit in the fauourth quarter. it lost 100,000 vehicles. john lawler will speak at the conference later on today to give us a better sense during his comments at the conference where he sees ford coming out of the uaw trying. the company expect to earn $10 cko ion to $10.5 billion. ba tyou. >> phil, thank you very much. "squawk box" will be right back. e your financial story. ♪♪ we're not an airline, but our network connects global businesses across nearly 160 markets. ♪♪ we're not a startup, but our innovation labs use new technologies to help keep your information secure. ♪♪ we're not architects, but we help build stronger communities. ♪♪ we're not just any bank.

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welcome back to "squawk box." media titans joined me yesterday giving me a sense of the state of streaming and the struggling box office. here's what disney's ceo bob

iger had to say. >> i think the movie business is changing actually. box office today is about 75% of what it was pre-covid. i think we have conditioned the audience to expect that these films will be on streaming platforms relatively quickly and that the experience of accessing them and watching them in the home is better than it ever was. >> joining us now to discuss more on the state of media and streaming is matt bellamy, puck founding partner. any nuggets from what you saw yesterday? you could have talked zaslav, iger. it is not -- it is not the holy grail. we thought it was for a while, disney plus. then we thought it was a loss leader. now we're back to where, it's pretty good, and we're stuck with it. >> yeah. iger is in a very interesting position here, because he's doing a little bit of revisionist history. a lot of these things he's talking about, about problems

from his predecessor, bob chapek, these are strategies that iger himself implemented. and as far back as 2020, he was talking about how disney has cu. now he's saying the same thing. they made too many marvel shows. he's saying that they made sequels to movies that they probably shouldn't have made sequels to. well, it is a weird thing in hollywood when you say we're going to make the good sequels. that's not really a strategy. you have to figure out what the movie business is going to be going forward. and this year has been pretty disastrous for disney. >> just as an aside and to square the circle, i thought it was fascinating, andrew, when i was bringing in elon musk into this, when andrew said do you think people are going to boycott disney. and, you know, elon said they already are. and i'm not going to say it is like -- it is not the sales of

bud light. i'm not saying it is akin to that or even -- if you look at the stock price of target, it is hard to ignore because walmart and others that tonight have that problem, doesn't look anything like that. do you adhere to that, that opinion, that disney, that you go woke, you go broke and that's part of the problem? >> you know, it is a fascinating topic because i actually don't think that that has been the major problem for disney. if these films were good and were resonating with audiences, they would be forgiving about some of the messaging and the movies, but iger himself, i think this is really for the first time he's talking now about how they have to focus on delighting audiences and the storytelling rather than what he calls the messaging in the movies. and that's an indirect -- >> that's even worse. it is not that we're woke, just makes crappy movies. >> but the wokeness is an issue. that's what iger is saying.

he's saying that the messaging in the movies is a problem for them, and what he's doing is he's acknowledging all the noise out there about how audiences they don't like some of the moves disney made with their casting choices, and with the characters and messaging of the movies. he wants them to pull back on that, and focus on the storytelling, which i think is very, very telling about where iger is right now. >> marvel has -- >> i'm curious about this, we also talked to shonda rhimes yesterday, a very outspoken supporter of president biden, she's doing a fund-raiser for him, she's done stuff on scandal and on grey's anatomy around some very hot button issues. in a polarized world as a storyteller, how do you do that and do you worry that -- she basically said, look, if you tell a good story, it doesn't matter. i don't know if you think that's true. i don't know if you think the world has changed. >> doesn't matter meaning it is

okay if bob iger pushes back on that and -- >> no, she has great authority within the netflix context to do whatever she wants. she thinks the public, the audience, doesn't look at what the creators' politics are or when the hot button issues are part of the story that that is necessarily -- >> i'm back to republicans buy sneakers too. shouldn't have to -- you may net net have more viewers because the people like what you're saying. but you are definitely losing some people that just where it rubs them the wrong way. i don't know why -- >> shonda rhimes, frankly, she doesn't have to care about the same issues that bob iger has to care about. shonda has an audience. it is a reliable audience. they show up for her product. and they love her for it. iger has to care about the larger portfolio and whether audiences when they see the disney brand, they are

potentially turned off. and i think that's what he's talking about with this messaging comment. >> all right. >> all right. good to have you and talk about all these things as well. you know, we like talking about stocks and prices, but it all factors in, doesn't it, matt? >> absolutely. this is a core issue for disney. he's got about ten core issues on his plate and andrew was amazing with asking pretty much about all of them yesterday. >> yeah. >> thanks, matt. >> thanks, matt. coming up, two big hours ahead. former house speaker paul ryan will join us on the set in the recent drama on the house of representatives, the 2024 election and so much more. we're coming right back.

goodng. futures soaring as indexes get ready to wrap up a winning november. the nasdaq and the dow are on track for their best monthly performance since july of 2022. plus, the run for the white house, former house speaker paul ryan is here to talk about the state of washington. the 2024 presidential race and much more. and united airlines tackling a problem for many travelers. lost luggage, scott kirby joins

us. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin with becky quick and joe kernen. a lot going on. u.s. equity futures looking higher this morning. a lot higher on the dow, 187 points higher. dow opening 8 points higher. and the nasdaq looking up about 35 points. treasuries as well, the ten-year note, sitting just about 4.297. the two-year at 4.660. we have been talking about oil and energy right now. you can buy a barrel of wti crude, costs you $78.46. and then finally crypto, bitcoin, just at about 37 -- $38,000 right about now. >> i think once again, i don't think we should ignore gold. did you see gold yesterday?

2,070? almost to an all time high. i think we're going to take a quick -- take a quick look. 2,038. it is down. it was close to an all time high. politics for a moment, we are now just 46 days until the iowa caucus, 340 days until the 2024 presidential election as the nomination fight heats up. here's what former house speaker kevin mccarthy had to say about donald trump's chances of winning yesterday at the deal book summit. >> if his campaign is about renew, rebuild, and restore, he'll win. if it is about revenge, he'll lose. th the only person who is going to determine that is not his campaign ad, it's him. so the country is hungry and they're open and he has the window. >> our next guest who also

served as house speaker has quite a different take on the former president's run to return to the white house. joining us right now to talk about that and much more is paul ryan, he is now a partner at sole mere capital and vice president of teneo. welcome. great to have you here. we have had a slew of other candidates who have come through "squawk box," chris christie this week, nikki haley recently and others. do any of them stand a chance at this point with challenging donald trump? >> yes. >> you look at -- they're down by 20 points, maybe more, in any of the polls you see. >> i think the key, do not discount the americans for prosperity endorsement of nikki haley two days ago. that's a big deal. the reason that's a really big deal is you could say that ron desantis has a big advantage over nikki haley was his ground game in iowa, which is impressive. america's prosperity has an impressive ground game. this is the koch networks ground game. they gave that to nikki haley. that levels her up in iowa with

ron desantis, that gives her a ground game in all these other states and i'm not saying i'm all for nikki haley, i'm for beating donald trump. i'm for any republican that can beat donald trump. if you had to pick a growth stock, i think nikki is the growth stock and she got this endorsement and it matters a lot. more than half the republicans don't want donald trump to be the mnominee. i'm among that half. >> he's got 66% in the polls though against the other candidates. >> i'm not saying this is going to happen, but i think it is still plausible because things can still happen, she's got a lot of momentum, after iowa, you could see a consolidation, we'll see what happens in iowa. you can see a consolidation. if one person can quickly consolidate the non-trump field, i think because of these other atmospherics, like afp's endorsement and the rest, you can see a plausible contention for the nomination. here's the reason. in the head to head polls,

people do better than against joe biden than donald trump does. i think the only person biden can beat is trump. i think he does beat him. because you know why, democrats come home at the end of the day and democrats will come home if they're motivated. you know what motivates democrats, donald trump. i think biden still ends up beating trump at the end of the day, but i do not think he can beat any of the other candidates. if chris christie and ron desantis and nikki haley are up against joe biden, they win. nikki beats joe biden by 13 points in some polls. in wisconsin, ten points. that's an incredible poll. >> you're taking one poll on that side saying that nikki haley would beat him. beat biden, that is. >> yes. >> but you're saying you don't believe the polls -- >> i do believe -- no, no. >> i do believe the polls that donald trump is way in the lead in the republican primary t. that is for sure the case. >> on the national level and then -- >> that's what i'm -- >> what's going on in my mind, you go state by state.

>> look at the -- five of the six -- >> he was only down in michigan, i think. >> you think those are wrong? >> i think democrats come home if they're really motivated. i think it is hard to motivate -- >> not reflected in the polls today because -- >> i've been in politics a long time, i ran for vice president in 2012, and lots of churn happens. >> you were up too. >> we were beating at this time, mitt and i -- i wasn't on the ticket, mitt was beating barack obama. i've seen this movie before. and i'm saying trump motivates democrats. >> i have a problem with that -- the first amendment stance nikki haley has on -- >> i don't agree with that either. >> you know, but -- she's like a neocon. i. >> doi don't want to see joe bin become the next president. and i don't want too see donal trump become the next president. i want a conservative as the

next presipresident. i would be happy if christie or ron desantis gets the nomination. i think nikki is in the pole position. she has a strong candidacy. she's the most appealing general election candidate we got. >> how soon do you need to see some consolidation around one of these candidates? >> that's a good question. i think basically around new hampshire is when you have to see this consolidation come, by february. between iowa and south carolina. i think you'll know by south carolina. i think either christie stays in or gets out after new hampshire. same with desantis in iowa. i think the map makes the consolidation story. >> you see governor christie was on the other day. his contention is that once meadows flipped -- >> i heard him say that. >> he's convinced there will be a felony conviction. >> look, obviously i'm not a big trump sympathizer. the people who go against him on the left make him a victim. all these new york cases seem pretty bs to me.

but some of these other cases are pretty legitimate, like the federal cases. and that's where i think he is in tough water. and, again, so there is another story to play out here. that makes it hard for this man to win a general election. >> general election, but what about -- does that make him even more popular with the base though? >> with the base. but you think the suburban milwaukee in the wild counties who didn't like him before january 6th are going to like him more now? the new swing voter american is the suburban voter and it is in four tastates. >> you're growing a beard to go kill bam bi. >> what are the four states? >> i'm a deer hunter. this is a deer hunting beard. nevada, wisconsin -- >> bad ending in that movie. >> georgia and pennsylvania. >> okay. so that's where it all comes down? >> that's where it comes down. >> you can throw a michigan in there maybe. >> what do you think about what kevin mccarthy was saying about

joe biden and about president trump whether he could -- about president biden or president trump, whether -- >> i mean, look, kevin's unrestrained now because he's not speaker of the house. >> you're not speaker of the house. >> yeah. so when you're speaker, you have to mind your members and their political fortunes and so you have to be careful about what you say, so you don't screw up your members. >> that's easy with this caucus. >> kevin is a little less restrained. look, i -- i've known joe biden for many years. i personally liked the man. but i haven't spoken to him personally, you know, for a couple of years. i can't say he's in serious cognitive decline. he appears to be. we live in a visual age. we live in -- >> i was thinking. >> you look at him -- >> it is on tape. >> he seemed like he's in decline. i think he's -- >> you don't need anecdotes about what he's like at meetings that you're attending. it is all on camera. >> that's my point. that's my point. >> people say donald trump is only a few years younger. >> i don't want to sound like i'm defending trump.

but he's aging better than joe biden is. my point is trump is so toxic. what i don't want to do is blow another presidency and i think trump would blow a presidency for us. he'll cost us seats, again, like he did in '20 and '22 and '18, he'll cost us seats in the house, in the senate. i think we win the senate no matter what because the map is so good for us, but we'll do better than if we have a desantis or a haley or a christie as our nominee. >> who is the more likely nominee of their party? trump or biden? >> of their party? >> yeah. >> their respective parties? >> i think biden, unless he chooses to step down, which -- >> what are the chances? >> i think the first part, the part that puts the first fresh face wins this election, i think it is the republican party instead of the democratic party. >> trump less likely to be the nominee -- >> that's right. >> what would -- >> i mean, trump is being contested. biden is not being contested.

>> let's say that the president goes home for christmas and speaks to his family and, i mean, we're talking about today how the president is. he's got to be five years from now he's still going to be day to day be the president. that's something that maybe -- >> i don't think there is a lot of confidence there. >> maybe he would think about that with his family. would have to be vice president harris, would it not? >> if he gets out early enough, they'll have a contested -- >> gavin newsom. >> not necessarily. >> a contested primary. she lost the last contested primary. >> she deserves the nod. >> it is a contested primary. you're asking a republican. >> i'm asking you to surmise. you're not house speaker, you are allowed to talk. >> i would surmise she would have a contested primary and somebody else would get the nomination. >> no way. >> that's not fair. >> i think the news of the day -- >> you sound so disappointed. >> that's not fair! that's not fair! she's in line. she's a vice president, she

would be the -- >> you're afraid somebody else would come in. >> i think she deserves it. i think clyburn and others in the party -- >> the news of the day you should report on is the fact that yesterday the freedom caucus endorsed funding appropriation bills at $1.59 trillion. the level at which mccarthy and biden struck that debt deal. that means you're much, much more -- much less likely to have a government shutdown. so these are the guys who tubed the budget process, cost us six months and four speakerships effectively by saying we want $1.47 trillion, now we're back to where we were before. it is never mind we're okay with the levels. it is us frofrustrating. you blew threw four speakers there in six months of appropriation bills and now we're back to where we should have been all along, back in memorial day, when mccarthy struck that good deal with biden. but the point i'm trying to make is that makes it much more likely that we're going to have a smoother appropriations

process, meaning not a government shutdown. >> let me ask you -- >> mike johnson deserves a lot of credit for getting us to this point. >> but let me ask you, we have said for years, i remember when, you know, evan bayh left, judd gregg left the senate, all these people left who could work across the aisle that it is less and less governable. do you think it is that situation based on this? do you think we turned a corner and there is a way do it? >> i think in this session this is a big corner turn. >> they haven't reached out to the other side. >> mike johnson is going into negotiations where he had very little leverage with -- speaking the same number, the same language. that is a good thing. so now we can go and start negotiating substance within these bills. look, by the way, you know, 1.47 versus $1.59 trillion for discretionary spending this year is not going to determine whether we have a debt crisis or not. it is entitlements.

it is mandatory spending. that is bringing us a debt crisis. i think we're floating $626 billion in bonds bills and notes to the treasury, just this week. so, we have a debt crisis coming. we all know this. and i think the game here is what are we doing about entitlements and mandatory spendspend i spending. it is clear the congress is not -- look, both biden and trump, the two front runters are t telling us they're not doing anything about this. even if you have this, you have two people running for president saying, no, no, no. >> nobody listened to that either. >> it wasn't a statutory commission. i was on sampson bowles. i think if you do a commission the right way, meaning where you have to vote on it, that's the only game in town, that's the only way out of this ditch and i'm glad mike johnson is pushing for it. >> that's the latest idea is to make it more -- >> simpson bowles -- >> give it privilege or --

>> can't be filibustered and has to be fast tracked to the floor. >> obama last time didn't act on it. >> obama and pelosi put out a press release saying they're against it before we wrapped up the final meeting of simpson bowles. i a p i had a problem with it, in full disclosure. it was dead before it even got off the ground. and if you have a statutory commission that says this will come to the floor, it will be voted on, therefore you have an actual pathway into law, you got to have a president saying, you know, bring this to me, that's the only way to get this done. and so that's why i think -- i think mike johnson is putting the emphasis where it ought to be, which is the source of the debt crisis, entitlement programs. but you got over a big hump by getting an agreement to go back to this number that everybody else agrees on. >> right. smooth sailing now for the -- >> smooth sailing. >> for the -- >> nothing but good government from here on out. >> when they say that it wasn't personal issues that people had

with mccarthy, that kind of belies what we're seeing now. is this still a honeymoon for johnson? the same issues that got kevin ousted, these guys are sort of giving a nod to now. how does that -- >> i think they realized after blowing up four speakerships or would be speakerships that movie is a little stale. let's move on. and let's not quibble over $100 billion. and let's move on. so i think mike got -- i think this extends his honeymoon. and they can start focusing on the election and substantive issues like entitlements. yeah, it was personal, people like matt gaetz. and the guys, you know, they're not all the same in the freedom caucus. so the -- you know, scott perry, he wasn't for ousting kevin mccarthy. he didn't vote to do that. those guys is messed up the appropriations process by tubing the deal he's done with biden. now he's undone that. i think the other thing kevin was more of a matt gaetz power

play. >> do you think anything about joe manchin or rfk or any -- does that factor into anything? >> yeah. look, ralph nader in florida in 2000, jill stein, these things -- >> ross perot. >> these things on the margin in certain states can make a difference. >> i think of dana carvey when i think of ross perot. >> yeah, 19%. bill clinton became president because of ross perot. >> manchin is not going to do it, is he? >> i don't think so. i don't think they would give it to manchin. if they did, they know they would be electing trump. they're probably in the who doesn't become president, not who becomes president and i don't think they would give it to manchin for that sake. >> all right. >> you like your new job? >> i do. it is a lot -- i teach at notre dame, i love sole mere. middle market investing in family friendly businesses is really fun. >> notre dame. >> i work on big company problems. >> notre dame had any

demonstrations -- pro-hamas demonstrations? >> no. >> what do you think of that? >> that's crazy. >> where did that come from? >> i hear genocide, i hear let's exterminate an entire country. >> they say genocide. >> i don't think these young college students don't know what they're talking about it. it is jarring this anti-semitism. i had no idea it was this palpable in america. i think the left has a huge problem with this. >> it should not be a surprise because of everything we have been hearing all along from the squad, the squad -- >> in england i see it, i didn't think it was as bad here. >> the squad has been proudly wearing it on their lapel for years. and then, you know, they're tearing down the columbus statue. they hate posters of hostages. it is crazy. it mystifies me. it is really disappointing. it means make sure you teach

your kids history. i don't think these kids understand the history. >> we're getting rid of history everywhere we can. the most amazing thing and i said it again and again and again, if you misgender someone at a college campus, you can be fired or lose tenure. if you say genocide to the jews, it is, like, well -- safe spaces that we had on college campuses and the microaggression that we somehow actually gave credence to and this is out in the open. how? why? how is this different? >> hypocrisy knows no bounds. >> i don't know about the beard. >> you sound like my wife. >> and -- >> it is deer season. >> you don't listen to -- >> she gives me a mulligan during deer season. gives me a pass. >> in case you're wondering at home, yes, he's a bambi killer, but he says they don't see him coming, as easily if you have a big thick beard or they think,

that's just grizzly adams. >> explain. >> you really believe that. >> in bow stands, you're hunting deer. or you wear a face mask, which is uncomfortable. so i prefer this. >> you could wear a face mask at the same time. >> not that kind of a face mask. >> oh, okay. >> speaker -- we're still calling you mr. speaker. at this point, if we had everyone who ran for it, every single guy who came on would be speaker. good to have you in studio. thank you for taking the jacket off and playing along. >> you got it. >> you've been doing that with us for years. >> i want to go back, it has been more than 20 years. >> more than 20 years. i used to go coach at inglewood cliffs. >> remember the big deal that happened while you were sitting -- big deal from your district? >> that's right. >> beau cyrus. i got to ask questions of the

caterpillar ceo at the time. that was a big deal. >> that was after you had been with us for a long time. i was trying to figure out how long. >> i started doing this when i became head of the budget committee for republicans. >> thank you. a you bet. >>ll right, speaker. coming up, a look at stocks on the move in the premarket. "squawk box" is coming right back. ght. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. get iphone 15 pro on us. (♪♪)

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welcome back to "squawk box." i'm dominic chu. here is a look at this morning's premarket movers. media giant disney, which has seen some slight moves in the premarket, now just down very marginally around 5,000 shares of trading volume. fresh off ceo bob iger's appearance on stage at yesterday's "new york times" deal book summit, disney is announcing changes in the board room. former ceo francis desouza will not seek re-election. outgoing ceo of morgan stanley james gorman and the former ceo of british broadcaster sky jeremy derrick will join disney's board. sky is currently owned by our cnbc parent company comcast. next up is business solution salesforce. quarterly results generally positive, profits better than expected. revenues in line. but its current quarter profit

forecast came in better than expected. it is the best performing stock in the dow so far this year and responsible for just about every bit of the dow's premarket gain today. and we'll end on autos. ford shares up about 1% or so, 150,000 shares plus of volume. new this morning, the automaker is reinstated its financial guidance for 2023, like competitor general motors did earlier this week. it says that adjusted pretax profits will be between 10 and $10.5 billion. previous guidance 11 to 12 billion and free cash flow about 5 to $5.5 billion, previously said it would be about 6.5 to 7. lowered some guidance. ford said the new uaw agreement will cost $8.8 billion over the life of the contract, which expires on april of 2028. ford shares also on the move, becky. >> dom, thank you very much. tonight at 8:00 p.m., we'll bring you a special interview with charlie munger. he was best known as berkshire

hathaway's vice chairman and wa warren buffett's best friend. he was a lawyer, architect and meteorologist. born in 1924, munger lived through the great depression and world war ii. i asked him what is different about the richest men then, henry ford and john d. rockefeller and now, elon musk. >> i don't think it's sure that everyone he's working on can work. i would not invest in -- myself. >> you've been impressed by what he's built? >> yes. again, that's another lesson. what is a lesson of elon musk? it is always an -- somebody who has a ridiculous amount of money, almost always has an

element of luck. he's been quite lucky in what he's double down, double down, double down and then leverage so much right to the edge of extinction, maybe too many times. the age of extinction without stepping into it. he's done it three times. six more in him, i don't know. i put elon musk in a pile. i never bet against him and i never bet with him. >> that file is a list of things that are too hard to figure out. he -- charlie munger said he and warren buffett had an awful lot of luck in what they were able to accomplish too. he says that's the case with anybody who rises to that level. you can see that tonight, charlie munger: a life of wit and wisdom tonight at 8:00 p.m. still to come, united airlines ceo scott kirby going to join "squawk box." we'll be right back.

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you united airlines tackline of the biggest problems that plagued the industry for decades. lost luggage. phil lebeau joins us with the ceo, scott kirby. hey, phil. >> let's bring in scott kirby joining us from united's hub in houston, texas. scott, thank you for joining us this morning. we're going to talk about the early baggage system in just a bit. i think it is fascinating what you are instituting down there. but i have to ask you right out of the gate, coming off of the thanksgiving holiday weekend, very strong one, very clean one for you guys and for the industry overall, how do you feel where demand sets up for heading into christmas, new year's and into the first quarter? >> yeah. well, demand was really strong during thanksgiving. we had our highest revenue day ever on sunday.

looked strong through the end of the year and really strong into the new year. you mentioned operationally for united and the industry at large this was probably the best operational year that we had that i could remember in at least 20 years. the credit for that goes to the changes the faa made in new york. new york, new jersey, is the busiest air travel market in the world. and historically more flights scheduled than the airports theoretical capacity. we got that back down to the theoretical capacity and that really, if new york runs well, the rest of the country can run well. and that really is the reason that the whole system for the whole industry had the best year we had in 20 years over thanksgiving. >> and all right, let's talk about the early baggage system that you guys are putting into place in houston. in layman's terms, am i correct here, if i get to the airport and i may be four hours, five hours before my flight and the plane is not there, if i check my bag, historically is that when bags get mishandled because they get put aside and not lost,

but they're not immediately going to the plane? what is the idea behind the early baggage system you're putting in place in houston? >> well, that's exactly right. whether you get there early or take an overnight flight in from an international market, and you're several hours away to your connection, our systems and processes just aren't set up to handle the bags, just taking it to your next gate and having it -- get straight on the airplane, if you're -- we don't know sometimes where the gate is going to be. storing the bags is a complicated manual process. and we're losing fewer bags than we ever lost before. but we're trying to make it even better. that is one of the areas where it is challenging, so this is an automated system that will go into a storage area and then the system will just kick the bag out, send it to your gate when the time is right, and the system will know where your plane is supposed to be and sending it in an automated way. should be a big improvement for customers. first airline to have one of these, couple of these systems around the world that airports own for all the airlines.

but the first one that i am aware of that an airline put into one of its airports. >> can i ask you about another similar problem? i think we talked about this in the past. that's the idea that since airlines started charging for bags to be checked, you have all these people who try and bring so much stuff on to the plane. i think it slows down the loading times. there is always more luggage than can possibly fit in the overhead, especially when planes are as full as they have been for the last who knows how long. i haven't gotten on a flight where you've seen almost any empty seats in forever. what can you do to improve that process? again, i think it is passengers who are trying to cheap out and get around the fees that are implied on top of it and it slows things down. >> well, the great news is the other thing that we're announcing here, starting here in houston today is the first commercial flight for our new a-321 nio. at united, every single new

airplane we're buying, a lot of new airplanes comes with a refurbished interior, bluetooth, wi-fi, overhead bins that are large enough that every single customer can bring a roller board and have room to put it on. we're retro fitting 100% of the airplanes that we have in our existing fleet to have that. >> and then drop the baggage fees? >> well, we're going to -- we're going to get better airplanes for customers, not just more space for bags, but also the in flight entertainment, bluetooth. i flew on one of them yesterday, two-thirds of the people were watching tv, mission impossible seemed the most popular as i walked through the airplane. but it is a great customer experience. >> scott, can you please, please stop flying out of terminal c at newark and coming back in terminal a? >> amen. happened to me twice. >> i park at terminal c, my

friend. then it is planes, trains and automobiles. i don't -- and you can't get your luggage. if you get your luggage -- stop! why? what happened? >> go back to the same gate. >> it's really about the growth in newark. and terminal a is beautiful and wonderful. it is a great terminal. but there is limited space at that airport and so, kyou know, we can fly less or fly out of terminal a and c. we're going to be flying out of a and c. we're doing everything we can to make the customer experience better there. but the airport was set up a long time ago, and the fact that you don't have -- it is harder for our connecting customers where you don't have a train inside security and we have to use buses for that. but, you know, we are growing in newark and flying bigger airplanes. used to be all the airplanes flying out of terminal a were itty-bitty regional jets. it means they're more spread out around the airport. >> scott, it is phil again.

it has been about a month since you guys instituted wilma, the new boarding process, window middle aisle. have you been able to document if the boarding times are any faster or is it not enough time since you put the process in place? >> it is going to be -- i think it is going to be hard to measure it because we're trying to save a minute and it is a little hard to sus that out of the data sometimes. but to me the amazing thing about this is, you know, we viewed this as a kind of normal course of business, you try to make things a little better. but the amount of interest that it has created is indicative of, you know, our brand and what people think about airlines. we're a part of people's -- the biggest moments, the most important moments in their life and it makes it a story, you know, bigger story than we thought it would be. but we're trying to do everything to run a better operation. the numbers keep getting better and better. we had our highest mps scores we ever had over thanksgiving, even though it is busy, and so we're

feeling really, really good about everything we're doing at united. that's one more example. >> scott kirby, ceo of united airlines. scott, thank you very much for joining us this morning from united's hub in houston. back to you. >> great, phil, thank you. thank you, scott. >> i want an answer on that. fly back to the same terminal you flew out of. >> it is bad luck, phil, if you ffennto a house and leave by a diert entrance. that's bad luck. you leave your soul there. coming up, we'll be right back.

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it has been a week of shifts in the auto world with general motors announcing cuts in its autonomous spin-off and acknowledging a demand in slow downfor electric vehicles. is this a speed bump for auto transformation or are we downshifting on the hype? jon fortt is here to weigh in. >> the entire industry knows electric vehicles are the future. and that's a big part of the reason for the extended contract battle with united autoworkers. tesla stock is trading back above three quarters of a trillion dollars in market cap. there has been setbacks and overall slowdown in global

demand hit electric vehicles in part because they're expensive and consumers are stretched. the price of gas has dropped, which takes the edge off ev demand. that hasn't changed the overall direction the very has been moving in, the transition from blackberries to iphones. autonomous vehicles, they're making steady progress, self-driving company mobilized the standout of the past year, up more than 40% since the first day of trade last october. tesla, which launches the cybertruck today, by the way, continues to push forward with its autonomous driving software. this week the company is pushing out a new version to employees that supposedly uses more advanced a.i. to make decisions. with innovation like that, autonomous and evs are just warming up. >> jon, not just gm that is pulling back on the new vehicle technology though. is this a case of tesla versus everybody else. >> well, becky, it is true, on the other hand, mark this month on the calendar. november 2023, the wake-up call for the auto industry.

electric vehicles aren't going away, they're a big part of the future, but they're not the entire future and that's where people are rediscovering things like hybrids. remember those? consumer reports this week said evs have 79% move reliability problems than conventional cars. hybrids have 26% fewer reliability problems. and they're now in higher demand than evs. even as tesla is dropping prices in gm's apologizing for falling short of expectations for ev sales. analysts at i see cars say hybrids are number one, two and six in the fastest selling used cars list. ford is slashing a plant. look no further than california, last month, regulators suspended the gm cruz division license to operate after a car ran over a pedestrian who was already hit by another car and dragged her

20 feet. they will spend less on the division in 2024. most of us will still be driving to the gas station for a while. >> reliability numbers matter as somebody who is dealing with a broken car this week. i will tell you that. what is the next test that comes for technology in the auto market? >> i think it is what consumers do about being so stretched on things like these auto loans. prices have gone up, the loan terms have gone long and we have got, like, this debt situation that shifted so quickly. phil lebeau is really the one to ask, but, you know, in a couple of years, where are we going to be on this? i'm not sure. >> jon, thank you. great to see you. >> let me plug the newsletter. got to do that. i forget. it has been a while. code on the screen. cnbc.com/otoh. you can get easy access to the weekly poll on linkedin, weigh in and let me know which side you agree with more. >> it is like magic when you point it at that thing, right? are we ever going to run out of

those? >> the arguments? >> no. >> the ability to have different qr codes? >> i don't know. >> seems like one of those things. >> like the sands of the hourglass. no way. right? you know. coming up, was not a real question, i don't know why i asked. doing business in china? after the meeting with president xi, should executives view china as our adversary or our business partner? call it a frienemy. we'll discuss after the break. as we go to break, shares of immuneogen is halted. it is already more than triple this year. now it is going to double from there. "squawk box" will be right back.

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no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. welcome back to "squawk box." overnight taiwan's defense ministry detected 11 chinese military aircraft flying nuer the island in addition to chinese warships. yesterday i spoke to china's president at the summit. >> i think the chinese leadership at this juncture is overwhelmed by its internal challenges, and my thought is that perhaps this is not a time for them to consider a major invasion of taiwan. >> because of the economic challenges in china right now? >> no.

largely because the internal economic and financial are critical challenges, but also the international community has made it loud and clear that this is not an option and peace and stability is in everyone's interests. joining us, director of china corporate affairs and u.s.-china and at the time of the meet ing we saw a couple weeks back between the presidents of both countries, that was the big question. the economic situation that we see in china. does that make, then, it more likely or less likely to be aggressive on, i don't know, in the south china sea with taiwan and all the other things that we see china has been doing in the past couple of years. more or less, the president of

taiwan seems to think less? >> it's complicated. how's that for an answer. >> everything is. >> you know, i think on the one hand the economic situation makes china's leadership more interested in calming its foreign relationships, and that's a part of why we saw the meeting between xi jinping and joe biden. that's why they are inviting delegations pretty regularly, from european countries and other major trading partners. they are trying to manage things that they can manage so that they're not in the way of the steps they need to take at home to really focus on challenges domestically. on the other hand, it's important to remember that from beijing's perspective, the south china sea area is where they are acting aggressively, and taiwan no foreign issues, they're domestic issues so the rules are

a little different. the calculations are different. so i think if we'd seen a different outcome from the opposition parties in taiwan trying to form a joint ticket, we might see a slightly less aggressive beijing right now, but the way that things have shaken out, it looks more likely than not that the current vice president will win the january election. he's the worst possible option from their perspective, because he's the most forward-leaning on formal independence for taiwan. so we should expect them to be doing things that are, you know, engaged in show of force activities, basically, from now until the election, and then it should be between the election and inauguration in may. >> so they even view that as almost a local issue? what you're saying. >> right. >> they might be less aggressive in other parts of the world, but that's, they figure i don't know. their own territory.

so when you watched that meeting between president biden and president xi, were you surprised at all at how, i don't know, somewhat conciliatory president she was or were you expecting that? >> i think that the -- i do think that he meant it. of course, you know, i can't read his mind, but i think that there's every reason for china to want to have a stable relationship with the united states and really no reason to want otherwise. just because we have different strategic interests doesn't mean it serves their interest to be, you know, on our bad side right now. i do think it was sincere and that she gin within would like to be able to establish a calmer relationship and one where there are avenues for cooperation, and one where the united states is dissuaded from moving forward even more aggressively with military changes in the south

china sea and the region with alliance-building and with restrictions on china's ability to access technology. that being said, you know, i don't think that this meeting fundamentally changed the strategic nature of each side's calculations about the other. i think that there's deep distryst and there's going to continue to be deep distrust and there are fundamentally different interests, which will be challenging going forward. >> yeah. all the things that we've -- china hawks are worried about, those are still, if they were pursuing those ends prior to that meeting, nothing changed. i mean, five years from now, still, if you believe they want to change the world order and supplant the united states at top of the world odrder, this might be a pause but still in their long-term plans. wouldn't you think? >> right. if you believe that, then, yeah. there's no reason to believe their long-term plans have changed. i don't think that that's

necessarily the -- >> we're not patsys, are we? i mean, he didn't say all of those things and then immediately leave and start laughing about putting one over on us? president xi i'm talking about? >> not at all. i also think that president biden wasn't particularly accommodating. i think that there was careful planning for this meeting, and what came out of the meeting was the result of intense negotiations, and it was what they are moving forward on right now. some of it, the united states, like the fentanyl agreement. but i think xi realizes foreign investment is as important as ever, if not more important than ever and he wants to assuage the foreign business community including u.s. businesses. he wants this relationship back on track. >> thank you, anna. >> thank you. >> see ya later. thanks. coming up, a lot more on "squawk." elon musk did not hold back yesterday at the summit. remarks, reaction, all of it, coming up in the next hour.

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good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. >> and -- >> it's like a -- it's like when a movie star comes in or something, because i watch you on tv all the time. know what i mean? >> andrew? >> no. talking to you, sully. brian sullivan. >> good morning. >> brian sullivan here at the desk. last day of november. not everyone realizes that, because there could be 31 days, but there aren't. >> i like a 32-day november. >> you probably are going to talk about this on your great show tonight. the s&p on pace for the best month since last july. since july of last year. did you know that?

>> you should watch this show. >> i don't know anything except for oil and -- amazing interview with elon musk. >> came in just to see andrew today. basically? >> tell you, remember the commercial, bud light had a great commercial years ago with cursing jar, and they had to put money in the jar every time somebody cursed. all started cursing to buy more beer. giving the interview, what we should do. >> i thought you were taking us down a grove we didn't want to go. bud light had a commercial. >> ten years ago. a different commercial. >> i feel after andrew's interview we should all be doing that. >> and touched on bud light yesterday at some point in 15 hours. >> right. >> we did. amazing. >> look at the futures? no. down there all the time. up 224. >> yields, 420-something. so yesterday initially with that

5.2% gdp number, yield back to 430 but back down below. anyway, brian sullivan's here. >> maybe just, this is the show. brian's here. want to talk? >> go ahead. >> set it up. set up brian. hold on. getting set to have a new read on the economy in just under 30 minutes. october pce inflation 8:30 eastern time. start the hour playing something the jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon said yesterday. take a look. >> i just think we've made a lot of mistakes, and so -- but let me caution on the economy. people look at the card to economy and things are doing good, stocks up, and had a little bit of a drugged injected directly into our system called fiscal stimulation. largest ever in peace time and the largest monetary stimulation. two different things. different effects, but they are drugs running through the system

creating a sugar high. we're in a sugar high. i don't know if we're landing in a soft landing, something like that. corporate profits up? yeah. because people are spending a lot of money. where did they get the money? government gave it to them. of course profits are up. when the stop spreading money, profits go down. sugar high and don't understand it. never had qt before. it may bite more than other people. >> and jamie clearly on a contrarian side relative to where the market seems to be, by the way, relative to where bill ackman seems to be. calling for opposite to happen. a lot of people think the fed will lower interest rates. he thinks that the game's not over yet. >> he speaks, people live. >> they do. they do. >> no -- i love jamie. >> yeah. >> no f words. at least in his interview, though, right? >> no. earlier in the day. >> it was earlier in the day. those came later, but -- >> so funny watching the

interview from cnbc. if you know cnbc, some are on a direct feed. some on the tv feed. tv feed lags three seconds. so i'm on the lagged feed. talent, get the worst tv. i hear everybody go, oh! what's going on. three seconds later we go, oh. >> then again and then again and then again. >> and again. >> so great. then i belt bad for you. you commented on the civility in public discourse how it's deteriorated. >> i thought about that. we talked about the whole idea of trust. a lot of us comportous in a certain way. maybe we shouldn't. ideas in your head, sometimes said out loud, sometimes they don't. he says it all out loud and you see it all. >> get to why you're here. not just to -- >> go on, go on. >> yeah, yeah. nothing about me.

let's talk about me. to the energy markets. the late opec meeting brian sullivan joins us with the latest. and we were saying brian sullivan pointing to a delay in the opec meeting. you had that and do you know why now? >> i have friends there. you know? contacts. they're meeting now. which is interesting. first day of a huge climate summit in dubai and uae a member of opec. it's complicated, folks. it's early in the morning. give you the opec map why you care. probably going to affect what you pay at the gas pump. >> right. >> three things currently going on now. all of opec plus, 23 countries, 2 million barrel per day paper cut. nine other nations 9.6 million barrels a day run to end of next year. stick with the rough lineup probably, two plus 1.6. then the lollipop. that's their term. the 1.3 million barrels per bay.

saudi arabia. a million of that and russia. 300,000. add those up. those are the cuts that are going to be end of this year and next year. big question is, what happens now? there are three basic scenarios what could happen at the virtual meeting today. number one, saudis and russians extend their cuts either end of 2024. could extend them and enhance them, in other words, extend into 2024 and make them bigger or everything could break down. everybody goes their own direction, like 2020. price of oil collapses. that's a market share war. very, very unlikely to happen. right now there are reports out there of an additional cut on top of the one i showed you of 1 million barrels, becky, spread out over the nations. here's the problem. saudis eating up almost all the cuts themselves. about 25% of the capacity. simply going to the other nations saying, you have to contribute, you have to contribute. you have to contribute.

some of those other nations, like nigeria and angola saying, either we can't or we won't. working it out. i think they're going to get a deal today. if they extend those cuts deeper and enhance them, option two on that menu. you probably see the price of oil rises $s 3 to $5 a barrel. depending how they go. >> and nigeria had barrel production taken way. weren't able to get to the levels instead. cut more, because basically already cut us. now we can't. >> couldn't get to their quota. opec says joe kernen, produce this amount. becky this much, andrew this much. then joe says, i can produce more than that. you can't produce enough. then you fix your issues. >> right. >> they want money. >> right. >> oil is -- reason we talk about it, it's money. geopolitics. by the way, guess who's at the white house today? president of angola.

how often do we talk about angola? >> who pays them off? saudi arabia? >> payoff, i think that -- listen, opec is a group and tell you they'll equal. every sgigs unanimous. saudis run the show. the secretary-general, but saudi arabia produces million barrels of oil day. by that twice at big as the next largest opec producer. russia a little bigger. big wild card. interesting, joe, up your alley. the big problem is america. >> we can produce it. >> because we're at 13 million barrels a day. we keep producing. be clear. the oil fund, right? guiana, a sovereign nation. u.s. feel owned by exxon and hess soon to be chevron. guiana added -- the size and scope of that field is beyond, going to make hopefully the whole nation of guiana become

wealthy. >> i thought weirdest thing. >> iran just -- >> weirdest for me, vm, lagging in evs. just -- >> i know somebody that talks about evs. >> yeah. but nobody knows what the future holds for the big three with evs. so their idea is to take these big profits they have now in internal combustion and buy back stock? got harder to make that transaction and compete with tesla. why pull in your horns on the transition? >> imagine this. i said this on "last call" 7:00 p.m. eastern. >> 2:00 a.m. >> match an giant wildly profitable business and you decide you're going to -- imagining that right now. you're going to destroy that by going in one direction, in part pushed politically. other reasons. a business that does not make money and shows no sign of making money and the consumer --

>> give that money back. >> of course, talking about television. >> right. i know. >> the ev business, the detroit -- detroit and ev, kind of funny. we seem to be going down the same kind of road. a hugely profitable model implode it and go -- >> it's weird because they got much bigger labor costs now. just heard billions they're going to spend on that. giving it right back to shareholders instead of spending it on the transition? >> making money in the yukons, right? reality is this. if half the country, norway, highest ev penetration in the world. 80% norwegians. know why? a lot of infrastructure because of oil. rirn ironically. norwegian oil demand is up. guess what? most oil goes into other stuff that's not cars. by the way, evs -- people criticizing me because i own an ev. >> do you? >> i does. drove it around. put the kids and dogs in the

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this morning. elon musk dedicating last

several decades to tesla in part to improve the climate. i asked about attending a fund-raiser for republican presidential candidate vivek ramaswamy. saying the economy is a hoax. >> i wanted to hear what vivek had to say, because i think some of his things are, some of the things he says i think are pretty solid. you know, he is concerned about government overreach, about government control of information. i mean, to the degree all twitter was basically a soft puppet of the government was ridiculous. >> could you see yourself voting for president biden? if it's a biden-trump election, for example? >> i think -- i would not vote for biden. >> would you vote for trump? >> i'd say i'd vote tore trump, but, i mean -- hmm.

definitely a difficult choice. >> might be the choice. joining us , i want your thoughts, jay clayton. reacting to that. also you brought a suit and settle add suit against mr. musk? >> look, congratulations on an amazing day and amazing interview with musk. >> thank you. >> and, look, maybe start with his comments on esg? >> interesting about that, esg piece of it, and sort of how he thinks about esg and how he think answer the climate and then how he's politically i think moved to the right in part because he feels, right, a., that democrats and biden administration have not been as generous and kind in spirit about this own accomplishments and tesla's success. >> more than that. >> impacts his deeply, and then i think views about what he would describe as the woke mind

virus, and other things around free speech. >> you heard what he said about old twitter. unbelievable what he said. he said it was a megaphone for the democratic party. >> said exactly -- >> well, let's go to something i hope i know a little bit about, regulation. your dialogue with him around regulation i thought was pretty remarkable, because he said a couple things. one, look, i'm remarkably compliant across my companies with oceans of regulations. there are some i disagree with. what i think he was saying, we can go back to the s.e.c. was, what is the purpose of regulation? and where is the biden administration going with regulation? is it regulation for regulation's sake? or regulation to further mankind? no doubt that he feels that he geneuinely is trying to further mankind and where regulation is in the way of that, you know, he says, look. i should -- try to follow it but shouldn't have respect for regulations that is really there.

>> right. you remember, here's the thing. he did not appreciate, what you were doing at the time. >> i don't think anyone doubts he violated security laws. >> here's a question for you. the thing everyone is grappling with i think. i tried to grapple with it with him and you try to meet people where they are. he said, i don't care about being liked or disliked, and that. hate me, that's fine, but what i kept trying to go back to the idea of trust. i assume that somebody like elon musk has to be trusted? ultimately? for all of these businesses to work. for advertisers to advertise. where you decide to buy a tesla vehicle, for you, the government decides to work with spacex and all of it. and the question, because this goes to rules, laws, how do you think about that? >> let's look at the market and what the market says about trust. i'm not getting into financial markets. look at market for engineers. if you talked to engineers, people who want to get involved, they want to work for him.

>> they do. >> if you want to work in aerospace, be a rocket scientist, cutting edge of ingenuity you want to work for him. be in artificial intelligence you want to work with him. talk about trust. that's your career. putting bread on the table. your, what i would say is your accomplishments as a houlen be -- human being. remarkable. >> a great answer. go there and hear a lot how is some of the stuff he does, crazy on x, isn't that going to impact what they think of him, buy at tesla or spacex? he said people need to trust the roshgt's taking off and going to work, trust buying the best car. people need to trust -- totally said, i'm not going to -- heard some of that. i don't care about virtue but a turn signal that works. kind of what he said. he succeeded. >> interesting part, talking about there's the physics part

of his life. right? the physics, the vehicle, the rocket. all of the stuff that's an engineering feat, and it's remarkable. and then there are these other -- he has an enormous leverage, enormous success there. but other issues that make it all a bit more complicated. starlink. amazing technology. should be given enormous credit how successful that is, but all of a sudden that creates all sorts of other issues not physics issues. right. >> people issues. >> trust issue as around government, who's supposed to control the satellites and supposed to work in middle of wars or not work in middle of wars? super complicated. >> another remark part of your interview. he says physics is my north star. violate laws of physics you blow up. these other things, room for debate. >> right. >> room for debate how to handle, what should be the scope of starlink?

turned it off or not? have though discussions. go back to physics, feels very, very grounded and safe. i think that's why the engineers trust him. look, i was an engineer, engineers feel that way. it's nice there are absolutes, there to solve problems. >> can you engineer, i wonder if he thinks this way. whether you can engineer some of these other social issues? know what i mean? >> think, give him credit here. what he thinks is that advancements in technology, advancements in innovation allow people to make better choices. his view of the human condition is that the more information people have, the more computing power they have, the more they -- the better choices consumers will make. >> jay, a number of guests also yesterday at the summit. they talked about environment. show you a couple other things, ba elon musk also told the gathering. >> nothing any of my companies

have done has been to stifle competition. in fact, we have done the opposite. at tesla, we have open sourced patents. anyone can use our patents for free. how many companies do you know have done that? can you name one? i can't. at spacex we don't use patents. so once in a while i understand we'll file a patent so patent control doesn't cause trouble, but we're not stopping any -- we've done nothing anti-competitive. done nothing to stop -- >> i'm not suggesting that at all. >> the audience, some companies have done anti-competitive things. i think the strange thing, the unusual thing about spacex and tesla, we've done things that have helped our competition. that tells us we've made other super-charger system

open-access. we made our charger technology available for free to the other manufacturers. we could have put a wall up. instead invited them in. >> that is a remarkable thing he does not get enough credit for. >> i think so. going back, lina was on. a difference between having market power and being anti-competitive. i think sometimes we mix that up. what is one of the things of modern technology, modern innovation that gives people market pow jer incredible network effects. you own a charging network. you own a platform that everybody wants to use. you're amazon. own distribution and in an incredible way giving you market power. the line between market power and anti-competitive behavior, though, exists. i think what he's saying, look, i recognize that that's incredibly powerful a network and the open it up to the competition. end of the day i think that's going to grow the market.

>> right. >> make it better. pretty remarkable insight. >> did you also notice made a comment, critical of jeff bezos saying i'm rooting for jeff bezos. i believe that. i do. >> but he said i want him to spend more money. almost said like sort of a -- >> open a gas station one corner. sometimes it's really good that a gas station goes on the other -- grow the market. >> i didn't know you were an engineer. >> i was -- >> mechanical, electrical? >> systems. >> nuts. >> yeah. one. easy ones? >> one of the easy ones? >> like civil. >> why not? got to get through college. >> engineer. >> forget it. >> thank you. ckn montme.ont ba ia me! rate - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well.

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welcome back, everybody. we remind to you tune in tonight to cnbc to see our final interview with charlie munger. taped just two weeks ago at his home in los angeles. munger reflect and hi almost 100 years on this planet like his business partner warren buffett munger began giving his fortune away years ago pointing out worth tense of billions more if he hadn't. munger gave great sums to higher education. $133 million to the university of michigan. more than $160 million to stanford university, and over $125 million to the university

of california santa barbara. >> all i had to do not give away the purchase stock given to the universities. >> do you wish you hadn't given it away? >> no, no. i don't like crazy leftism as far as colleges and more suspicious about capital ism with -- removed. it's dangerous. you know, the word for -- capitalism. the engine is the hardship. basically saying to a 17-year-old kid when he graduates from public high school, give you the high road to the kingdom, george. good-bye. and there he is. he can either behold us or go to work somewhere. that's our system. you go to college or you go to

work. absolutely required. it's a tough -- it's a tough-love system. i'm not sure that capital ism needs big strong tough elements of that in it. >> why capitalism is the best system and why it works. him talking why you need a little tough love in it as well. charlie munger life of wit and wisdom airs tonight at 8:00 p.m. on cnbc. at xsquawk pod will bring you moral that interview with charlie munger as well. approaches new pe and inflation data as well as jobless claims, spending in personal income, futures now even up a little bit more than they were earlier. up 232. rick santelli standing by at the cme. rick, numbers, please. >> well, a little early for the numbers, but i will tell you that claims, really pay attention to the continuing

claims as they ever near 1.9 million. last look we had, 1 million 840,000. on the higher side. we've seen what? one, two, three, four above 1.8 million, this most likely will be five in a row. on the spending and income side, of course, everybody's asking the same question, joe. awarded that 5.2% gdp, where did it come from? maybe dual speeds where's to positives of stay-at-home work. savings. $6,000, $7,000 in food. some say come ago way from businesses that are losing that in downtown and more urban areas, but maybe different speeds. lost side on one isn't reflective of spending consumption side on the other. now at 8:30 eastern, check out the wires as they spin by.

personal income and spending jobless claims hitting the wires first. 218,000 on initial jobless claims. spot-on with what analysts expected. 218. 1 million 927,000 for continuing claims. we just popped over the 1.9 million i was referencing. it hasn't happened since november of 2021 when we were at 1 million 964,000. so that is something to pay attention to. let's watch those yields. personal income up 0.2% exactly as expected. look at spending side. also up 0.2% exactly at expected. real personal spending for inflation, deuces are wild. also up 0.2%, which is 0.1 better than looking for. all three are less than the rearview mirror. revisions haven't hit the wires yet.

this one, the middle one particularly on the spending side, that's coming off of up 0.7. pay attention to any revisions that might come down the pipe. the real important numbers. personal consumption expenditures deflator month over month expected up 0.1 unchanged. goose egg following up 0.4%. moderation there. go from month over month to year over year. expecting a number 3.1 comes in at 3%. comes in at 3%. this is one we need to reference history. 3% a new cycle low on this, and last time we were anywhere near that level would be march of 2021, when it was 2.7%. okay. back off, back to month over month. this time the core pce month over month deflator expected to be 0.2. exactly up 0.2. biggy expenditure core deflator

year over year. 3.5 expected. 3.5 delivered. rearview mirror, 3.7 which was the lowest going back to may of 2021. so we see that these numbers are moderating on some of the issues regarding personal consumption expenditures. most likely something the fed will welcome. i'm a little surprised that yields haven't moved a little bit more aggressive to the down side especially on the continuing claims number, but here we hover. we have two-year note yields basically unchanged. all the other yields are higher. curve is getting less inverted. that is a positive in many ways. a more steepening curve will be bringing back more normalcy and lower things like hedging costs for those, of course, looking towards japan and what may be down the road in tightening and how that may effect currency and carry trades. pre-opening equities certainly don't seem to be nervous about

the jump in claims. holding on to very sizable gains and extending them as we discuss the numbers. joe, back to you. >> that 5.2% gdp seems to get further and further in the part. anything in these numbers that, that explain why that was such a hot number, rick? >> no. i don't think really that there is. i'm looking at the spending numbers here, and they have moderated but are still not bad. i think the real issue here continues to be, joe, let's say, you know, that -- look at government workers. government workers, if you look at all of the vacant real estate they're not going to work and sitting in every day, that's a significantly large amount of evermpty real estate in the prie secretary per both at those stay-at-homes don't want to come back into the office. that dynamic, many consumer

positives contributing to much more consumption. i think the other side of the ledger there is going to be what we see down the road a bit. when we get a double punch, because people will be forced to go back to work and some of those costs, well, they'll see much higher when you have to go back and spend higher money transporting and, of course, on the food and all the issues have to spend when you go back to work. >> great. thanks, rick. more on the data bring in former deputy director of the white house national economic council, and he searched director of the office of management and budget now the president of the american action forum. good to have you both on, and barack, let me ask you at this point. can you -- trying to get to that lagging indicator, if you would, on the revised gdp. are we in a 5.2% economy right

now? does the fed view it that way? >> i think everyone is expecting that fourth quarter gdp isn't going to be quite as high as 5% but worth stepping back a little and reflecting based on numbers we got today. where we are and where we have come from since january of 2021. i remember sitting in the white house after inauguration looking at the fact we had less than 1% population vaccinated. unemployment over 6% and people across the board projecting a long and slow and grinding recovery. instead here we are in november of 2023, just come off a quarter over 5% economic growth. inflation coming down towards target. we've got 20 straight months unemployment under 4%. i think there's a lot of reason for omptimistic even if the economy doesn't growing at 5% quarter after kwar. >> quarter. >> be that as it may doug, see it in the polls and how people

feel. i understand that it was pointed out of the accomplishments. where are we in the economic cycle, doug? >> third quarter gdp numbers misleading on underlining strength in the economy. a lot driven by a big push in government spending. 0.9 percentage points. inventory move, 1.4 percentage points. core private demand 2.9 percentage points almost all households. that concerns me, because every post-war recession other than the pandemic led by a downturn in business investment. business sector is the key. essentially flat in third quarter, orders not strong. so we've been held up by the households. how did they do it? real estate not growing. dead flat past couple quarters. feels like the household sector and business sector not very

enthusiastic. recipe for slow at best growth in 2024. i think that's what we're looking at. >> gentlemen, i want to play you something to get your reaction if i could. vice president harris and what she said yesterday at the dealbook summit about inflation. take a listen. >> economic measures and don't necessarily connect with the heart and experience and feelings of the american people. for many americans prices are still too high. and we still have work to do to address that. >> what do you think of that? doug? >> well, i think that's actually dead on the mark. you know, people are celebrating what a great progress made on inflation. look at core pce as the benchmark, peaked 5.6%. now down to 3.5%. that's great, but half way home. not the finishing stretch. >> right. >> half way through the 2% target. when i read the fed minutes and staff outlook is get to 2% in

2026, that tells you you have a lot of battle with inflation left. >> the other piece of this is, do you think that a president ever gets credit one way or the other? funny. i think blamed as interest rates go up, inflation goes up. i don't know if they get credit on the way down. >> yeah, look. what the vice president said is accurate as well. i think what we learned from the past couple years is that even when income may be rising and in many cases especially lower-income households raising faster than prices. people don't like paying higher prices, paying $50 more than they used to a few years ago. you're starting to see i think in polling data and will see over the next year is that as inflation gets closer and closer to target, as the sailients of higher prices starts to fade a little as real wage gains continue to tick up people will reflect that in their sentiment about the economy.

i project that a year from now people's views on the economy will be stronger than they are now. >> and thank you both. places to go, people to see. things to do. appreciate your time. both of you. >> among those things we have to do, poo eople to see, jason trennert will join us.

coming up, why sam altman fired from openai and why all of this might have happened. details scarce surrounding those confusing dafew ys. we'll have the latest when we come back. "squawk box" returns in a moment.

a few years ago, i came to saona, they told me there's no electricity on the island. we always thought that whatever we did here would be an emblem of what small communities can achieve. trying to give a better life to people that don't have the means to do it. si mi papá estuviera vivo, sé que él tuviera orgulloso también de vivir de esta viviendo una vida como la que estamos viviendo ahora. es electricidad aquí es salud.

we believe in what dweerg which really sets aapart in many others in this space. >> broader market deserves an element of measurement to truly measure what's removed, stored and the broader benefit.

next on "squawk box," sam altman back ceo of openai. a.i. one of the biggest topics at yesterday's dealbook summit. nvidia's ceo and elon musk had this to say about the timeline when artificial intelligence will be competitive with humans. >> if we defined a.i. as a piece of commuter software take a bunch of tests and the tests reflect basic intelligence, and by achieving, by completing those tests deliver results that be fairly competitive to a normal human, i would say that within the next five years you're going to see obviously a.i.s that can cheat those

tests. >> and a.i. write as good a novel as j.k. rowling or physics, new technology -- i'd say we are less than three years from that point. >> to continue the a.i. discussion our next guest, new article gives inside look at lingers unease among openai staff among sam altman's firing and rehiring. joining us, good morning to you. take us inside -- >> good morning. >> -- what's happening, you think, at openai gishening the news we just saw and all lingering questions? >> yeah. i mean, look, i think people are hamm sam altman is back at openai. no question. but there are a lot of questions. an investigation into whatever it was he was fired for, which seems to have something to do with his other business dealings. but that investigation's, we don't know what's going to happen. i think in a highly competitive market, in openai's market, it's

really tough for openai to say, look, come join this company instead of our competitors when the future is sort of in question. >> so you think this is dealt on a blow, i imagine? the question is, how big a blow, if it is one at all, and who is the beneficiary? do employees, the great engineers, decide to go to work in microsoft. by the way, microsoft has access, we know effect tively a lot of i.p. that has come out. do they go to google, inflection? what happens? >> look, we had, you know, in the story a little mini scoop that openai employees are reaching out to other companies. even after they knew sam altman was coming back. looking around. i don't know if they'll gare to microsoft. we heard reaching out to cohere. i hear at the aws summit working

on a.i. interesting companies, a lot of them in this space, and microsoft, working on their own sil silicon, so is amazon. stuff you need to kind of delve into the future. all of these companies have it. i think it's, you know -- we're really -- i would say openai has "the" best technology when it comes to algorithms, but not a big moat around that. we're in gen one or not even gen one of this technology. >> raising a very important question, which is -- activity we talked about this a moment with elon yesterday. is all of this, does it get commoditized ultimately? everybody's on the same path, processing power. is it processing power? because it's the waits, inferences, training? is everybody basically climbing to the same place? if so, where is the value

created? >> yeah. definitely there will be commoditization. it's already happening. i mean, so -- here at aws everyone's talking about the enterprise where a lot of the money's going to be made in a.i. in the enterprise nobody wants to use huge molds openai, anthropic and other companies are making. they want smaller, faster, more efficient and don't need the massive knowledge in a chatgpt pointing at their own business data. already seeing that. we talked about the compute power of nvidia. on top right now, but all of these companies are trying to make, you know, processors that are more efficient, and what ef they're doing is they're using these new models to kind of learn how to make the silicon better, so as they -- they have an advantage because they are the ones who are, like, running these models now. >> let me just ask you, and it's hard to ask a reporter to

speculate but i'm going to try because elon musk was trying to get me to speculate yesterday. do you feel like you have any real grasp on what happened -- everybody's focused on one of the board members and this idea that he was genuinely worried about something that had happened inside the company and perhaps this idea that maybe they actually did have this breakthrough technology that's taken place that we don't know about. >> oh, i don't think that's it at all. >> you don't? okay. >> i'm not even speculating. it's for sure not that. this new model that everybody was kind of worried about. the board never even got this letter that employees said they wrote about that, so no, it's not that. this has to do with, i think, this is a little bit of speculation based on reporting, but i think that it has to do with samaltman involved in lots of other business dealings and then the board feeling like he wasn't being honest with them and that's what they're sort of looking into now. and i don't know if there's anything there.

there's definitely not a smoking gun. >> okay. reid, we appreciate it. what stays in vegas, at least while you're there, won't stay -- what happens in vegas won't stay, hopefully. report it out and let us know what happens. talk to you soon. thanks. >> will do. thanks. up next, we'll be right back. i'm going to start using that. it's as good as these other ones. >> stuff in between. jason jni uanwel isoings d 'lbe right back. people are excited about what ai will do for them. we're excited about what ai will do for business. introducing watsonx a platform designed to multiply output by training ai with your data. when you watsonx your business, you can build ai to help coders code faster, customer service respond quicker, and employees handle repetitive tasks in less time.

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well, that october pce number came in up .2%. the futures were really strong before that number. they have been really strong since that number. a lot of it, by the way, for the dow futures, which are up 232 points coming from salesforce. i think earlier salesforce accounted for about 135 points of that. but you see that upward trend, and joining us to talk about the market impact of all of it is jason, the chairman and ceo of strategas research partners, which is a baird company. jason, this is up, up, up and away. and i wonder how you're feeling about things. are you in the camp that thinks, okay, you got to throw your towel in with this and go along with it or are you in the jamie dimon camp? he sounded more concerned about

things. >> well, listen, i'm -- the one thing i'm having a hard time reconciling is if i look out at next year, the earnings expectations are up 12. revenue is up 5. and also, four rate cuts, and i just -- historically, that's a tough thing to pull off all at the same time. generally speaking, the fed funds rate doesn't have a rounded top, you know, as art says, it takes the stairs on the way up and the elevator on the way down. that's the only hesitation i have is just that people are really calling for an almost perfect scenario where you get a slowdown in inflation but still very rapid earnings growth, and i think that might be a hard thing to pull off in 2024. >> look, i'll go back to this. i know you have been in this camp of thinking things were going to come down for a long time. the market has evaded any sense of coming back down, but i will also say, back to jamie dimon,

when he spoke with andrew yesterday at dealbook, he was pretty concerned about the idea that this could be a sugar high. is that what you're kind of buying into? when jamie dimon says things like that, i certainly sit up and pay attention. >> well, certainly. listen, i don't want to make this overly political, but this administration is pulling out every rabbit out of a hat it can, whether it's the strategic petroleum reserve, whether it's the bank lending facility after silicon valley bank, whether it's we're running a budget deficit that's close to gdp at full employment, which has never happened in the post-war period. the only times we've run deficits this high were when the unemployment rate was already over 7% and the unemployment rate is now under 4%. if it were not for the government being so mu nif sent

or incontinent, depending on how you describe it, the economy would be in rougher shape. there are a lot of things being thrown at the economy to keep it out of recession at any cost. my only issue is that comes with a cost, right? and generally speaking, over time, the cost is higher inflation. >> what are you doing? are you sitting on the sidelines? are you waiting for a pullback? are you investing in areas that you think will do okay anyway? >> yeah, no, i think -- and listen, we haven't had a wholesale -- we have been certainly cautious and bearish, but we've also been focusing on areas of sectors of the economy that are not up nearly as much as tech or the magnificent seven, but do have a very positive spread between the earnings weight and their index, so financials and energy, as an

example, financials, i think, going into next year could be an interesting place to be. we haven't been overweight that this year, but we have been overweight energy, and there are very big differences in terms of the bang you get for your buck in the index, whereas if you look at the magnificent seven and you made it a separate sector, it would be 28% of the s&p 500 but only 17% of the earnings. if you look at energy, energy is only about 4.5% of the index, but it's about 12% of the earnings. and so, for my perspective, going into next year, that's where we would like to be. we want to be in places where, again, you're getting more bang for the buck as far as the weightings in the overall index. >> like energy? >> like energy a lot. and i know it's -- part of the reason i like it is i believe, based on my travels and especially abroad, it is institutionally underowned. no one owns it. that's partly for political reasons. it's partly because in the past, those companies tend to light

money on fire. but i think it's different now. i think there's a lot of new capital discipline among the majors, the public majors that i haven't seen in my lifetime, and they're very focused on return on equity and returning money to shareholders. that's a big difference. the other thing that's interesting about energy is that it tends to be countercyclical as far as regulatory oversight is concerned, which is to say, they tend to do better during periods of intense regulatory oversight, the stocks do better. >> right. >> donald trump loved the energy sector, and they were terrible. biden hates it, and they've been terrific since he was elected. >> jason, thank you. jason trennert, we'll talk to you soon. folks, that does it for us today. it was a lot, but we'll be right back here tomorrow. we've got more to get through too. see you then. "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on th