anything you've ever seen. >> porsche and beating it. >> what's the one that's 60 grand? but they don't have a lot of options, tesla. already said it. how much they'll cost. it'sriday, december 1st, 2023, and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. lcome to "squa box" right here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq marketsite itimes square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin and we made it. this is the first day of like the dow is up slightly.s futures up by 60 points, nasdaq is off by about 15 but, boy,

what a month november was. the dow actuly staged a late day rebound yesterday. it closed out one of the biggest november rallies on record. the dow up by 520 points yesterday to bring its november gains to 8.7%. s&p was also up but not by it got most of its gains earlier in the mth. for the month it was up by 8.9% and the nasdaq fell slightly yesterday dragged down by idia but for the month of november still saw gains of 10.7%. fothe year the dow hitting a 52-week high. it's now less than 3% away from its all-time high. the s&p is just over 5% from its record high and the nasdaq is up by 12% from its record high and also saw the transports up pretty significantly. bett than 8% and, again, this is breaking a three-month losing stre that all the major averages had seen heading into november. treasury yields again, ts is the big reason for all of those moves. treasury yields have come down significantly over the last

month. ten-year yielding just above 4.3%. two-year to 4.67. dollar index, worst month since november of last year down 3% for the month, but, wow, what a ride it has been over the last year for the dollar too. >> i think the -- i mean, the dow was up all day yesterday, but did in the last hourit added out -- >> in the morning it was salesforce alone that was kind of gainingt. by the end of the session -- >> i didn't understand why we call it that. up all day and u150 points in the last half hour to 520, which is 1.5% whereas the s&p was up about 0.4%. >> right. salesforce helped ou it was the only one shall then u saw some other -- >> like . israel said its military end of its truce with hamas. the it accused the terrorist group of violating the cease-fire,

although qatar said talks were ongoing to renew that pause in fighting. in the last hour, nbc news ' crew on the border reported hearing loud rocket strikes and could see rockets coming from gaza being intercepted by israel's irodome air defense system and kind of an interesting piece in "the journal." i guess "the journal" recounting what we know and that is it's going to be years. uld be five years of hting down hamas militants long after maybe the very obvus fighting ends, they're going to be hunting down the leaders of hamas that planned that attack and could be f years and will go wherever in the world they need to go. >> which makes you harken back to maybe the '70s. >> osama bin laden. >> and the '70s, golda meir sent

in that special team. there is a story in "the new york times" that israel saw this attack for -- >> saw it for a year coming. >> the idf is saying they won't respond to that right now. their main interest is dealing with the war. >> some attack but not this -- >> apparently very specifically this was what the attack was supposed to look like and they didn't believe that hamas was capable of actually pulling it f, and so they just underappreated wt was happening, but that, in fact, the gates that they were going after, how they were going to do it in the various places where the drones were going to be, everything that there was actually a document that documented exactly what -- >> down to the flying parachutes. >> dowto how it was all -- they thought they were incapab and didn't havthe resources, the know-how and coordination and training to pull it off so thought it was some kind of

dream of hamas' but not necessarily something that would happen and more recently there was actually a moment and there's correspondence apparently over some kind of encrypted email where they actually saw them, one day, doing a training that looked very much like what this plan actually spelled out. >> on builngs. >> as if they were doing it but then they still were discounting it because they thought they can never really actually do this. yeah. >> if the point of terrorism is to instill terror, can you imagine a more terrifying scene than a whole squadron of those things coming in. it reminded me of the scariest things is a child that you see is in "wizard. >> something in business that was scary for some, not scary for others.

ceo yaccarino characterized her boss' performance as candid and profound and urged staffers to absorb the importance of what they're part of and addressed the harsh message to advertisers that he accused of trying to blackmail him. our principles do not have a price tag nor be compromised, she said. i saw a number of people online, and i don't know how big it was, but, you know, i think fans of elon musk who were saying, you know, putting together lists of companies that they were saying are boycotting or have taken advertising off of twitter to then sort of say, well, should go boycott them? >> i saw some people taking pictesaying thathey had ended their disney plus sucriptions and taking pictures of the cancellation pages and putting them online too on twitter. >> the boycott, the -- >> reverse boycotts. >> very teresting phenomenon.

>> that is the -- that is e o. omedia matters. i meanwe know that. they watch, and then they suggest boycotts. and i'm laughing becse they wanted -- they were mad at me so long ago, like ten yearsgo, i told you that then delivered ke, i don't know, 50,000 signed things, you know, about -- i still have like a page on media matters so i'm proud that -i n't ow let'slso tell you the other ing -- >> k-e rife -- k -- >> at an event in texas yesterday, the companyevealed updated prices for the truck with the entry-level model starting at $61,000. the most expensive, the cyberbeast is nearly100,000. >> so the beast is faster? >> the beast is faster and more powerful.

>> to pull thing. >> then the same question. >> what i don't know is -- >> the option. >> the $60,000 base model with most teslas, it's very hard -- most people are not getting the base model and you end up with -- having to do more. >> that's probably the case with most car, though. you probably say that about cars in general. few people get the base level. >> generally i think in this case one of the things we've seen with tesla vehicles -- >> there is a big tier. >> full on escalade or navigator, you're getting close. and even the one that -- i just wish you'd do it, pull the trigger, the telluride, it's a kia, and i think that's 65 grand. >> yeah. >> so nothing -- >> they're not nothing. >> i don't know whether the normal guy out in wyoming is going to trade ihis -- whatever he s, wt's he got elecic tesla?e it in forn

>> i don't know. this seems -- >> they're pretty big distces. >> reminds me more like a hummer. >> make a statement. >> look at me. >> statement car. it's not a not look at me, how about that? >> it's noan incognito car. >> only one color, what it's made of, i guess. if u need good serity -- >> iyotry get one now it's a couple years' wait even if you put a deposit down today dema for as ch athey're of maki at the moment. >> i think it's ing to make a splash for tesla, obviously. >> all right, disney restoring its dividend announcing a 30-cent payout for the second half of its fiscal year made on january 10th to shareholders of record as. cember 11th. disney has been under pressure to resto its dividend by nelson peltz seeking board

seats. probably under pressure to do that anyway up by 0.5%. >> kp it. 15 cents a quarter on a $92 stk. i don'know. >> bter thothing. tter than a poke in the eye. >> better than a sharp stick in the eye. maybe they should spend it on so they don't have to just do like sequels of superheroes. >> new content >> how do you do a two-hour -- 2 1/2 hour -- what's the plot of a 2 1/2-hour, like marvel -- >> they're great. you haven't wahed them. i've watched them because i have a younboy. >> it's all cgi, right? >> they turned the corner at one point with "many thor raarok" themselves.aking fun of funny story lines. i won't ash the marvel stuff because it's content injoy. when you had young kids you were looking for new content all the time. you would have been into it. >> i want you to see what's out now? >> what. >> "salt burn" because i c't

unsee it. >> what's it about? >> i'm not going to tell you. the director had it in five different places he decided -- he decided that i'm going to shock people with something that ey couldn't even come up with wh happe. don't bring your kids. >> okay. when we come back, fed chair jay powell is set 20 speak later this morning. we'll be speaking to economist ian shepardson. he is here in the house and we'll talk to him next about the potential for rate cuts next year. when that might happen, and what could actually spark the fed to make a move like that? you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc. this is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

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fed chair jay powell will paicipate in back-to-back discussions today starting at 11:00 a.m. eastern time. the first is a fireside chat on post-covid economic challenges. the second, a roundtable on tech innovation and entrepreneurship. it's aong word that doesn't fit in the prompter. ian epherdson. macro economics also doesn't fit in the prompter, at least one line. ian, welcome. we've been trying to figure out what comes next from the fed, and you think that while the fed

was underestimates inflation on the way up, it's also underestimating disinflation on the way down. >> yeah, on some of the short-term measures of inflation we're pretty much back to the target so core pce,.2% and the year over year is still quite high. that's just a whisper away from where they want to be, and, yet, they're still talking, some of them, about potentially wanting to raise rates again. markets stopped listening a while ago and now pricing in mother than 100 basis points of easing for next year, but the fed still has its lingering, we must retain optionality. the market is just not listening to them anymore, and opinions are splitting away between what sheriffs think the fed will do and what the fed is still saying it might do. >> which is why you think a cut will come sooner. it's going to happen quickly when it does come. >> when they acknowledge they've beaten inflation and got what

they wanted, the language will change fairly quickly and markets are ahead of them. over the next few months, unless there's a big surprise to the upside to which i'm not seeing any sign of that, then i think they will flip and recognize, as jay powell said several times, as inflation keeps falling, if they don't cut rate, real rates go up further and squeezing an economy which doesn't need to be squeezed anymore. you have to move and adjust those rates to the downside to catch up with this inflation drop. >> but if they are slow to recognize this because they don't want to get caught offsides and have inflation run up again and have embarrassing reversal they have to do, does that mean that the damage to the economy really shows up in full force before they do something, or some sort of break? >> this is the risk for sure. the longer you leave rates at the peak because you want to be 100% sure you've done enough, the danger is you've done too much and in some parts of the economy you can see stresses emerging on the consumer data

and retailers are nervous going into the holiday season, and business spending intentions, investment in2etentions are reay quite weak. the danger is, you've broken something. you have have to see it in the context of getting it wrong and the fed being too willing to believe inflation will come back down quickly, and then finding they had to catch up so can't make the same mistake again. >> you can make a different one. >> you can make a different one. this is the history of fed going back over decade. >> what's your base case for next year? what happens with the economy? >> i think it will be sluggish. i'm hoping it won't break but got to say there's probably more risk of something breaking than another year of upside surprises, which has been the story of this year. there's a lot of things where there's stress, commercial real estate. some real downside risk hasn't crystallized yet in the hard data, but i'm losing a bit of sleep over the first half of next year, i've got to say, so i think the fed responds quickly.

>> were you losing sleep at any point over the previous year? >> oh, yeah, some of the inflation numbers last spring were alarming and the fed had to deal with something that was unpleasant and hiked having started late but there was a period where there was a rick of that dreaded spiral, but that's ancient history now. they just can't bring themselves to sayo. >> do you think there is a har or soft landing? >> soft landing is my best case where we bumble through the first half and maybe picks up later, but the hard land of illusioning is, i think, a bigger risk than the upside. it's going to be okay or bad is more likely than -- look at this, another year of side. >> i know you're an economist, not a marketwatcher, but you think that's may the right move? >> the fed will validate what the fed is sing. they won't declare victory until they're sure, and i think

they're cut about 150 basis poin next year so becomes a valuion story and the market is saying the valuation story is bigger, and i think it's probably right. whether equities continue to rally the same way they've done over the last couple of months is a b ask but fundamentally i think that story is more important. >> ian, your ears must have been burning talking about you earlier this week. glad to see you at the end of the week and come back soon. >> thanks for having me. >> you got the -- someone may be able to speak in the same manner. >> thankou. >> with the same credibility, real what i'm saying. >> thank you. >> newcastle.you grow up? newcastlebrown ale. >> nearly on the border of scotland. >> is that something you drink? >> it's actually consumed in newcastle and a wonderful thing it is too in sll quantities.

>> news you can use, folks. >> when we come back a lot more on "squawk box." pga tour commissioner jay monahan speaking about the deal with liv golf. what he said straight ead after this. when you think of investment risk, do you consider climate risk? changing weather patterns are impacting the way we live and the value of businesses largend small. this can mean disruption to supply chains, changing demanfor products and shifting regulation. what does is mean for your business, your clients, and your investments? ice fers data and markets that can provi critical insight. manage your climate risk with ice.

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it'sillion-dollar views. perfectly located. an inspiration. and enough space to start an empire. loopnet. the most popular place to find a space. > welcomback to "squawk box." want to show you from the deal book conference d i spoke with jay monahan and asked about the state of the league's deal with liv. >> it was very clear that the pga tour was facing an existential threatt from a $700 billion sovereign wealth fund,

and that sovereign wealth fund was determined to control the future of our sport, and so for us, we decided to address that by striking a deal that allowed the pga tour to remain and retain control with firm feguards to put an end to and win expensive andivisive litigation. the deadline for our conve conversations is a firm target. i'll be with yasser next week and, you know, wcontinue to advance our conversations, and i think it's ptty well known that there a large number of other interested parties. >> one of the first times he spoke about how that deal came together and the pressures that were on the pga, but he also spoke about something he's never spok out publicly about throughout all of is, which was if you remember a few days after the deal was announced, he took a month's long leave of

absence and opened up about that challeing period for him yesterday for the first time. take a look. >> so, in the morning of june 11th, i went for a long walk. i prayed. i came home, and to my wife's surprise i said, honey, i need help, and she said, what do you mean? i said, i need help. i'm in a bad, bad, bad place, and at that point in time, andrew, i knew i'm the first person to run into a fight, anybody that knows me will tell you that, and i knew the perception was that i was running away from a fight, and that was excruciating. that hurt me to my core, but i'm also a human being. i'm a father. i'm a husband, i'm a family member, and i realized that i had to get myself right. >> there's a lot more of that, and he goes into great detail about checking himself into a facility, spending tim seral weeks there, what it really

means to have mental health issues, depression, anxiety and how that manifests in somebody and the courage it takes to have to call in this case the lead board member in the midst of something like this and say, i have a problem, and i'm -- not walk away, but i have the courage to say, i need your help, and, you know, and not to worry that there's going to be a coup while you're gone and people say you're weak, i mean, this is a big issue, i think, for a lot of people about if you actuallyo have an issue, can you raise your hand and say -- >> follow his -- the travails that closely but prior to this happening, had he haany bouts with something similar, or was it all the pressure -- >> i think it was the pressure of this. i don't want to speak for him, but it sounded like this was not something that just came on in that week. it sounded like it had been builng over several months,

maybe related -- >> project because of this. >> to all of this. >> that was a very difficult time. >> when you're not sleeping, when you're not eating, when you're not able to process or think about anything. >> a lot of cricism from -- it was the weight of the world an mickelson versus tiger and it's still going on. >> i give him credit for not only seeking help, but then speaking aboutt. >>peaking about it. the courage to speak about it. he wanted to talk about it. >> to speak up and talk abou these things so that other people feel like they can me forward and talk about it. >> i think a lot of people -- >> it's a lonely road and a lot of peoe ve these momts of ace pressi and acute anxiety and we were even trying to understand and talk about how you sortf know when you know what to do, but >> yeah viously -- th'sot something --

>> a l of people havbeen asking what happened during that period. >> enormous pressure. that's why i was wondering if -- if it really was-- from at almost - >> right. >> almost not ptsd but almost that instance which actually caused that. >> i mean, just from what he said about saying somebody who runs -- >> what a great guy he is. loving father and -- i don't know. that's what i wonder, because that was -- it's still -- it's still unclear what the pga tour really is going to look like and what it should do and, you know, should it be -- what do they spor?it en t saudis buy >> that'why it's all the more impressive, it's notike things are resolved right now. he's still willing ttalk about it. we wish him well. coming up, we are going to show you the highlights from last night's debate between

florida governor ron desantis and california governor gavi newsom and we'll get reaction from frank luntz. he's a lk at yesterday's s 0, winrs and losers. >> executive edge sponsored by at&t business. next-level moments need the next-level network. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security.

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good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box." we're live from the nasdaq marketsite in times square. the futures are adding to yesterday's gains at least as far as the dow is concerned. the nasdaq was the biggest gainer in november and one of the biggest gains we've had in a year or so. it's off a little today, but the s&p, which was just up 0.3%, 0.4% yesterday, not doing much. >> okay. can we talk fireworks? you ready for some fireworks?

>> it was just insults from both side, right? >> let's talk bit. so last night there was a debate. i don't know what kind of debate it was. i don't know how to describe what kind of debate it was. california governor gavin newsom said he's not running for president in 2024 and ron desantis trailing behind the former president trump for the gop nomination, they faced off on fox news last night in a clash over red state versus blue state, each trading jabs on how they run their respective states, and i said, i don't know what kind of debate it is. almost like a made up -- >> smackdown. >> a smackdown fest or something. take a look at this. this is the response when the governors were asked whether president biden is experiencing cognitive decline. >> yes, he's in decline. yes, it's a danger to the country. he has no business running for president. and, you know, gavin newsom agrees with that. he won't agree with that. that's why he's running his shadow campaign. he should not be running.

he is not up to the job and it is dangerous for this country. >> well, i will take joe biden for 100 versus ron desantis at any age, in fact, all of the -- >> you think he's 100%? >> i've been spending plenty of time with joe biden. >> joining us with more on the race for the white house, frank luntz, pollsr and political rategist. what do you think is going on desais desperaly needso get back into the conversation and gavin newsom is running for -- >> for whatever, doesn't really matter. last night was a food fight, was worldwide wrestling, whatever anablg you want to use. you used a very calm clip because most of the time they talked over each other and like the fact that sean hannity had to experience what his colleague chris wallace had to go through

when he moderated a debate with trump and biden. it's absolutely impossible to imagine that the two candidates that the public doesn't want are going to be the nominees, but that's the situation we're facing. i'm looking at an independent candidacy more seriously now than ever before. >> you yourself? i'd vote for you. >> oh, please -- >> oh, you're looking at. not you. not you. >> god help america. >> rfk you're looking at? >> joe manchin. >> you think manchin is coming in. >> maybe larry hogan. maybe the former utah governor -- actually i heard romney's name but i'm speaking of huntsman and the congresswoman from hawaii, tulsi gabbard. >> we had paul rn here yesterday. we asked him about that too. joe manchin potentially running. he said no labels ll ever do that because they are too concerned about what happens if they enter a third parrott into

the race. >> that is not true. i love paul ryan but he's completely wrong. this is absolutely viable. it does not necessarily help or hurt biden, depends on who the candidates are. joe manchin takes as many votes away from donald trump as he does from joe biden because he's a conservative democrat, and there are a lot of democrats who are angry at him for standing up to joe biden so they won't vote for him yet manchin has the ability to attract republican voters that ev some independent republicans will not pport. ryan was pushing the idea that nikki haley is a plausibl candate fothe republican prog progress, americans for prosperity, sorry, that they would be able to get her on the ballot. >> as an independent? >> not as an iependent but that they would be able to make ves. can the no labels party get meone on the ballot? >> no labels is credible. they've already got ballot positions in about ten states, by the end of this year i'm told

they'll get to maybe a dozen. i'veeen their polling. i've seen their fos groups, and not only is it vble but there is a significant percentage, 60% that right now are looking toomeone oer than trump and ben. >> frank, wi manchin, though, you know the expression you can't please all the people all the time, so when he stood firm agnst any more spending, a lot of conservatives were watching him, this guy is great, he's got towitch parties and the mocrats were fious that he was holding -- that biden's agenda couldn't go forward, and know whether it was a really 't quick flip-fp, but he flip-flopped and went and did back it and the i.r.a. passed and all the conservatives that liked him were furious, so he totally made the democrats mad on the way in, and all the people that were liking him, he had nobody left and had 10%

approval in west virginia. >> yet, my issue is, and i've been thinking about what to address on this show, why is joe biden running? >> why is joe biden running? >> his support among young people is collapsing. >> you don't want -- i was talking about manchin. >> i realize that but that's more significant. the reason we're talking about manchin is because biden is so weak and the democrats are trying to kick all these independent candidacies off the ballot so they can't run. >> let me ask you a question, turn the whole thing around of the let's say the biden administration called you up and said, i want you to whisper in our ear on this side and say, tell us what is the message that we're supposed to deliver about the issue of age or the criticisms that you just made. if y were telling him how he shld go abt it, whatould >> fst thing, not let jeffrey katzenberg back into the white house. he is a great movie maker. very talented in hollywood and he is andiot when it comes to politics. he says to joe biden, now u

look up, now he says to joe your age because you got ize perience. no, nobody -- th watch biden speak and tch him walk and how he behaves. >> this is when he's 81, not 86. he will be 86. >> that's the exact point. if i'm advising biden i'll say don't talk about age, focus on day one where were we on january 20th, 2021 and where are we that's 9 best for him,nd f . donald tmp - >> if you can't get -- look, i imagine the reason why jeffrey katzenberg, who, by the way, is not just a talented filmmaker, i mean, he's had a remarble career. >> but you got to know when to stop. >> but at so point you can't --f the elephant in the room is around age, to st of pretend that you're younger than you are or it's not an issue is -- ere are people who are always going to ask that question so you almost have lean into it. and say, i'm a wise man, look, i

thought you were going to say at you could lean into the idea that he and the vice prident are more of a team, that y're ying -- >> thas the scy thing. andrew had kama harris at his -- and that's the other elephant in the room, that everyone talks about. the backup to biden if something wereo happen is kamala harris and that's not -- that's a frightening thought to most people. >> to give you -- e has the lowest approval rating since dan quayle and he d thlowest rating since aaron burr. >> can i ask about vice presidents. do -- >> one out of three. >> do you believe that when a voter -- i actually asked the vice president about this. when a voter votes for a ticket, i don't know if you vote for a ticket but if you're voting for the president, how much you have to airmatively believe that you're voting for -- that you believe that the vice president coulalso be an exceptional president. >> it happened with john mccain, because of his age, and it's

absolutely going to happen to joe biden because of his age. >> and sarah palin who was a brilliant pick when it happened and thenurned d as timwent on >> lookelike aail mary pas it was a weird choice and almost t of desperation. >> but she gave an amazing convention speech. >> right. >> then was downhill from there because in the end it's not just about style, it really is about substance. >> were they really taking polls in 1801 when aaron burr was the vice president? >> yes, my great, great, great, great-grandfather was a pollster and so he was the one who suggested it should not be jefferson burr -- sorry, should not be burr/jefferson. do you believe that? the fact you had to ask -- >> do you do eight or nine greats. you would know if it was either -- >> frank, thank you.

fascinating. >> were the luntzs here back then? >> they were in ukraine back then running away from the russians. >> same story today. >> my people are still running from the russians. >> frank, thank you. when we come back we will get you ready for the final trading month of the year. we've got the futures this morning up by 67 points, flat for the s&p down by about 22 for the nasdaq and a reminder, you can get the best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast. just follow squawk pod on your y merite pcast app and listen anti. we'll be right back. observing investors choose assets to balance risk and reward. with one element securing portfolios, time after time. gold. agile and liquid. a proven protector. an ever-evolving enabler of bold decisions. an asset more relevant than ever before. gold. your strategic advantage.

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pfizer just releasing phe 2 trial results for its obesity drug. cnbc's angica peops has more onhat. good morning. what's the news? >> good morning, becky. so the big news this morning is that pfizer will not advance its experimental twice a day pill into phase 3 trials because of t toller ability issues and said it met the goal delivering weight loss of up to 8 to 13% but that came at a cost of high rates of discontinuation, so more than 50% of people across all doses dropping out of the trial versus about 40% of people who are receiving placebo and we

know about these adverse events across the class, things like nausea, vomiting and diarrhea but pfizer saying they saw about three-quarters of people who received it experienced nausea. about half vomiting and a quarter experiencing diarrhea and decided that's not going to be competitive enough to move forward and compete with some of the other treatments that are already out there and also the other experimental pills that are being developed, but pfizer does have a reformulated once a day pill that they're working on, and they will continue to work on that and they'll have data probably in the first half of next year and the results of that will inrm the path forward for the drug. >> angelica, how does that compare to the other drugs? we know there can be side effects, but nothing with the other competitive drugs that sound like that, rig? >> yh, wasooking through me othe tao see what much highethan wt we've se

r i lilly. its perimeal pill, and it's also higher than whawe've en fothe injections, and th thg here is that even thou thers still so much demand for these drugs and can'make enou, toer -- toller ability is a problem. one thing we want to hear fr pfizers whether rtf this was how they designed the trial, because they didn't let anyone actually lower the dose over time and that's something that lilly did allow. it might have to do with the trial design but still a big problem fothe drug. >> we have heard abo people who ve gone off these drugs. it has been a side effect that people drop them or lower the dosage. i guess we wait to hear more, but, yeah, at first blush that's pretty concerning. the stock down by 4.2%. >> to .

>> dow412% for the year. >> angelica, tnk you very much. >> what's the yield, at 29 that's 6% or something. 5.3, maybe more, 5 1/2. coming up dr. kavita patel is going to join us next on some emerging public health challenges. it is disturbing including a surge in cases of rest piratory illnesand even the swi f in the uk. listen to us live any time on the cnbc app. experience the art of high pressure brewed coffee and espresso with the l'or barista system. enjoy richer, bolder flavors complete with velvet smooth crema. now brewing peet's coffee. ♪♪ nothing like a real tree. ♪♪

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surging across the u.s. ohio becoming the firsstate in the u.s. to report an tick in pediatric pneumonia. for more on this and the respiratory sue in china, let's bring in d kavita patel, a professor of medicine at stanford university, and a contributowith nbc news and msnbc. thanks for joining us. i'm trying to figure out whether this itruly different or whether we're all much more in tune with these type of things following pandemic because there's an rsv season every year, i think, and there's companies that have been working on rsv vaccines from long before covid and the pandemic, so we've seen this before. is this different? is this worse? >> yeah, joe, so what's unfolding in the unid states i don't think is much worse. we of course have to monitor it. i'm su we're going to hear about cases of over crowded

pediatric emergency rooms in the country. we know it's not a novel virus a version of covid, it's really from the mix of respiratory viruses, things we're getting used to. this is a calibratn of what had come out of the pandemic. rememb a year ago we had the triple demic with all of these viruses syncing at the same time because of the way the viruses unfolded across the countr we're seeing that a little bit now. a little less than a year ago. a year ago we had the american academy of pediatrics send a letter urging for the country to do something because the country was overwhelmed. here we're seeing it in ohio, and other states but not at the crisis we saw a year ago. >> i have mixed feelings about, you know, following the pandemic how we view these things, doctor. when i heard about the h1n1 in the past before covid, we had

seen swine flu. we had seen bird flu. we had seen sars, and nothing ever turned into a pandemic. now we know that it can happen, so now when i see h1n1, oh, my god, could that be the next one. are we overly paranoid about it happening again or justly worried about a repeat? >> i mean, i'm coming from a public health kind of scientific perspective, i think we're just enough worried, and maybe we need to do a little bit more on surveillance. on the swine flu piece, especially in the uk, that was the first time they had seen an unusual case of transmission, something where they couldn't find the precise vector of the transmission. normally it's from an animal to a human, and that doesn't raise much suspicion. in this case, there was no known reason for that case, and that triggers, i think, a lot of just worrying around public health surveillance. we need to watch and see what else is happening. we have those mechanisms in

place. in the united states we had a similar case earlier this year in august, so all the things that kind of heighten our awareness in the media, the public health chommunity has ben doing this for years. we need to be aware this can lead to epidemics, potentially pandemics. we have come a long way with covid and waste water surveillance. we have a global level of monitoring that didn't exist even two years ago. it's just to worry about it, but we should be appropriately responsive, which is what the world health organization is doing in china, the uk and the united states. >> we're out of time, i was going to ask you about china if it's an immune population. they haven't seen things in a while because it's been closed down. i was also going to ask you whether, is that lab still open? are there labs around the world we need to worry about in terms of safety protocols? not to say that we definitively

know that was responsible, but i would hope that people are in p4 type containment settings on any of this stuff, doctor. >> yeah, we had that as our working assumption, but as ronald reagan said, trust but verify. hopefully all seasonal normal viruses, china's just in that spate of patterns that we saw previously. >> doctor, thanks, appreciate it. >> thanks, take care. coming up, markets turning in a strong performance in november with the dow up 8.7 this morning. we have deiltas ahead. two big hours after this. e power of thinkorswim, the award-winning trading platforms. bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical studies. tailor the platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customizatio

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good morning, a november to remember. markets reaching newighs for the year with just one month to go in 2023 toy,ed speak from jay powell will be a focus for investors. another proxy battle brewing, the second this week. nelson peltz is seeking two

board seats. the first deliveries of tesla's cybertruck, can the ev maker meet demand and is it a gamehanger for the company? we'll discuss. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, investors, and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i just added that in myself this time. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm joe kernen, we're all here, becky quick, andrew ross sorkin, u.s. equity futures are adding to yesterday's gains in a couple of the indices that we watch. one is lower. actually, the dow or the s&p is actually turned red, barely. just down 30 basis points, but yeah, the dow adding to

yesterday's 520 point salesforce fueled gain that we saw. and you can see the nasdaq off a little. let's look at treasuries, which it was kind of interesting, because you thought maybe that as rick said at the time that maybe the yields would continue down into the mid-20s on the ten-year because of the jobless claims number. and some of the other stuff was pretty cool. they actually firmed a little. a long way from 5%. yield curves steepening a little. look at oil, opec plus, another 900,000 barrels. we've got 76 we probably should look at crypto today. i saw almost 39,0. 38,600 on bitcoin, up 2.3%. >> let's get to dom chu.

there are definitely big movers, what are you seeing? >> that's the one we're going to start on here, pfizer is really on the move, accelerating its losses here. it was down about 4% just about five minutes ago, just around a quarter million shares of premarket volume. it's being driven down largely in part by news out this morning as you mentioned and discussed, it will discontinue developing its experimental weight loss pill after patients were taking the meds during the trials, did lose weight, and experience side effects largely at the mild and gastrointestinal nature. pfizer is getting a bit of a downdraft. and an analyst call getting attention this morning, as norfolk southern, as shares are up fractionally. thin trading volumes, getting help from bank of america, which is updwgrading the rail operato from buy to hold. the target goes up to 208 bucks, it have 204.

they like carload, and sequential service trends. those shares up fractional on that. and cap things off with the single best performing stock of the dow industrials in the month of november, which is also not coincidentally, the best performing stock in the dow so far this year in 2023. that is salesforce which is down fractionally right now. the business software computing company, that surged yesterday, propelling shares to the highest levels since january of last year, thanks in part to a better than expected earnings report. those shares have been moving between gains and losses premarket, 5,000 shares have traded so far, in extended hours action. salesforce has a 20% performance lead over the second best performing dow stock so far in 2023. becky, which is intel, by the way. it's up huge, 88%. intel up 68%, we'll see if the salesforce trend continues,

guys. >> perfect. dom, thank you very much. the november rally is in the books with the dow surging 9% for the best month since october of 2022, the index gaining 500 points on thursday. will this rally keep giving as we get into the giving month of december. joining us right n is senior investment strategist at edward jones. mo na mahojan, more gainor not? >> not only the s&p and dow, but we have seen the lagging part play catch up. small caps participate in this rally. we saw bond markets participate in this rally as well. the pace that we saw in november with the s&p up nearly 10%, we don't know if that pace will continue through december, but we are seeing the ingrednts in place for a sustainable rally, and that's what we call kind of a trifecta of fundamtal events. one of course is inflation

continues to moderate and we see perhaps some signs that that could contue. number two, the fed looks like it is now stepping to the sidelines, at least in terms of rate hikes, and the conversati will shift in 2024 to when rate one was really interesting, d which is a kind of gradual cooling in the economy what we're calling a goldilocks cooling in t economy. not too ho not too cold. that's one that sustains, when you look historically, when the fed pauses and then cuts. markets can do well if we don't fall into a recessionary environment. that remains the base case. we see aool to go below trend or potential growth t no deeper prolonged economic downturn. we're well set up heading into 2024. the pace may slow, but take advantage of the volatility, if you can. >> you like small cap stobcks, and i was looking at the russell 2000, up by 8.8%.

it saw really strong gains. it is still 26% below its reco highs. is that your play here, you think there's a lot more room small caps have not had nearly the run weave seen with the other majoaverages? >> historically small caps tend to show some leadership when you're heading into the early stages of an economic cycle. so, you know, we just talked about we may see some economic cooling, but if inatio moderates, and you know, rates continue to move lower, we think the economy will start to reaccelerate again sometime in 2024. and, you know, markets won't wait for that confirmation. they will start to price that in ahead of time. small caps are well positioned to take advantage of the recovery play in the economy nextear. we alsthink the backdrop of lower fed funds rate, as well as a potential earnings reacceleration next year is one that favors small caps, especially since the valuations are less stretched tn what we

have seen in the rest of t market as well. yes, that's one we think should be part of yr basket for next year. >> i was going to say, the credit issues were much bigger for small companieas rates growa situation where you think tes will come back down, and that will benefit companies too. >> it's a great callout. small caps are much more levered to variable rate debt as well. they had much more floating rates expore. as rates were rising, they did come under pssure. hopefully the opposite will come >> mona, thank you very much. have to apologize, joe thinks i'm getting choked up. i'm choking on my coffee. >> really, iwas a great month. >> thank you, guys. >> it looked so pretty. >> you're so into your job. >> i do get choked up. >> wow, wow. >> thanks, mona. mona did it. coming up on the other side of this, activist nelson peltz

seeking out more seats at disney, we're going to bring you more on that and what's going on at the mouse house. and coressman josh solvers caucus, see if we n solve some problems. "squawk box" returns after this. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“invitingool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. get iphone 15 pro on us. (♪♪) with gold bond... you can age on your own terms. retinol overnight means... the smoothing benefits of retinol. are now for your whole body. plus, fast-working crepe corrector diminishes wrinkled skin in justwo days.

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box," activist investor, nelson peltz vying on two seatsthe second headline in shareholder activism, following the billion dollar stake, and oil refinery. joining us with more is all of this, michael flaherty, the access editor. good morning to you. >> good morning, andrew. what do we think of this, let's talk nelson first. >> the gloves are off. we don't even have a nomination deadline start yet, and letters going back and forth. i mean, the temperature has turned about as high as you can get when you've got two sides like this, and he's clearly, he wants to be on the board. he wants a couple of different directors recommendations to be on the board. they have made ivery clear, we don't want you othe board, period. >> do we think, and i actually asked bob iger about this earlier this week, you know, some people say, take an activist, brg them on the board, shut them down, right. sometimes people say, bring them

under the tent so this whole thing goes away. there's other people who say, the second you bring somebody like that on the board, you have infected the board, and they have more influence, even though they're one person than anybody else. >> that was a recommendation for years, what's the harm, was the term for bring an agitated investor on the board and see what happens. i think what several boards and executives would tell you is that a single person can be extremely disruptive. now, on the other side of that, of course, what trion would say, we come to every single meeting with a packet of information. >> let me just -- i don't want to take sides on this, but have you heard one idea out of nelson peltz's camp at all that's unique, has not been considered or different than anything coming out of disney? >> right now we haven't. your colleague david faber asked this yesterday, what's the plan. we know you want to get on the board,here'she whi paper

was ctical previouslyast year when we were in the same situation. >> everybody can throw stones, throw some solutions. and throw good solutions is the real issue. >> fair enough, his criticism last year was the m and a strategy, he was critical of the fox deal. that whole argument is dated. we're all waitinto s wt is your plan, what do you want from the company. >> but until he gets a plan do you think shareholders will support nelson peltz. nelson peltz plus ike perlmutter, how much influence do you think they have collectively? >> they have a large chunk of shares, 2 1/2 billion dollars s sdl. >> you have to persuade a lot more shareholders. >> you need blackrock, you need the index funds. >> it's not even 1% of the shares. >> i don't know what the exact percentage is. but you have to bring other people in your camp. 50 plus 1.

if this goes to a vote. >> it's a $169 billion company. >> disney shares have been lagging considerably, so i think that they obviously have that in the argument, you know, as a case for change, so, look, and this ultimately, i mean, all signs go right now, this thing's going to a proxy fight. this meeting is not even until may. the letters going back and forth were of the nature yesterday. very little room for negotiating, for settlement, these two are going at it. >> is the dividend announcement a reaction or do you think they would have done it anyway. >> i don't think so. you know, a dividend, i don't think would be a core case of an example like this. this is nelson peltz is waging this battle. it's a heated battle right now, and, you know, we'll see how this plays out. >> where do you think value act, which is the other activist investor, do you think they would vote alongside nelson peltz to get peltz on the board?

>> i think the perception is it's the opposite of that. the value act has been constructive. >> exactly. >> they'll step down. mason has taken over, but, you know, their strategy hasn't really changed. i think the idea is that, you know, sort of the white night scenario, value act comes in, and a whole support piece of the fight. value act has been silent so far. whatever they are thinking they have been quiet. value act should be viewed as a support of dney and iger, not as agitator. >>hat you think the actual f track record of nelson peltz is of getng on the boards and on the other side of it when he has been successful,etting on the board, meaning what the true performance is. you can read lots of different anyses of his success rate over the years. >> agree. people point to wendy's, people point to pepsico and other

consumer product type companies that he's been influential on. stying what trion's, you know, success te over the years, i think depending on the porolio company i ink is hard. i think, look, any actist will tell you, they are a concentrated portfolio. they have eight to ten investments, one or two of those investments go up 30, 40%. that's a win. right? the other six or seven could be, you know, laggards or could be, you know, neutral. i think it's very much based on ngular campaigns. they're activists and fighthe good fig, you know, their lps, that's what they want u do, that'shat you' paying them for. >> where doethis all go, and how quicklou're right, we're early in theame. ishere a way that this gets shut down early or do you think this just becomes nastier and nastier. >> like i said, this period of time before the nomination deadline begins, there's a little bit more of a jockeying, maybe a letter here, maybe an

article there. right? they're in full on battle mode right now. look at what was announced, you know, the two statements that came out yesterday, how does this play out. as of right now, just by judgi where the letters are, and what s said yesterday, thishing goes to a vote. now, rememr, up until the morning of the vote, you can reach a settlement, you can take the strategy as you mentioned, the board.arm, putelson on maybe we p one of his representatives on the board, and there's a little bit of a truth the, but remember, they just put, you know, james gorman and the former sky news ceo on the board, so that's what disney is saying, we've got 13 very highly qualified members of the board, and i think nelson has said there nds to be more they aressed tt yesterday d with the sky news o. >> michael, it great to see you. >> thank you. >> i'm sure we'll see you again as this plays out, since it doesn't seem to be going away. >> does not. >> thank you. still to come is morning, after years of delays and

problems, tesla's cybertruck is here. the first delivery taking place at the company's factory in austin yesterday. we've got the details next. in the meantime, check out the futures on this first trading day of the month. dow futures still up by about 44 points. the nasdaq down by aimilar amount. s&p now down by about 4 points. "squawk box" will be right back. time now for today's aflac trivia question, which bank is credited with installing the world's first atm? the answer when "squawk box" returns. and he's using it to send out medical bills. good hands! hospital bill for prime?! gaaaaap! did you just say gap?! he's talking about expenses health insurance doesn't cover. good thing coach prime knows about...say it one time! aflac! because aflac gets you money to help close that gap! now how do we get this goat outta here? (whiles) aflac! meet one of my new homies! gaaaaap! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at aflac.com.

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and now, the answer to today's aflac trivia question, which bank is credited with installing the world's first atm? the answer bar clay's bank in 1967. elon musk handing over the first cybertrucks at an event in austin, texas, last night. phil lebeau joins us with more, and this is long awaited, and the video, phil, really has gone viral with what this thing can do. >> how often do you see somebody shoot a machine gun into the side of a vehicle.

you just don't see that, and we'll show you that here in just a little bit. here is elon musk yesterday afternoon in austin, texas a little bit dark, but you can e that he's driving in in a tesla cybertruck, those are the first customers, they handed over 12 vehicles. these are the first buyers, drove them straight out of the plant there. by the way, in terms of pricing, the base model will start at basically 61,000. that's not available until 2025. the cyber beast is the top-end model. that starts at basically $100,000. here's the video that people are talking about. elon musk loves to talk about the fact that you've got these stainless steel alloy panels on the truck that are basically indestructible. to show that, to prove that, they showed video them shooting a tommy gun, shooting a glock into the side panels on the cybertruck, and as you can see, they stopped the bullets there. by the way, the capacity on the cyber truck, the towing

capacity, 11,000 pounds. here's what the analysts are saying about the cybertruck, everybody says the same thing, really unique, game changing but let's keep it in perspective in terms of deliveries. while it does not specifically move the needle for tesla, it shows the innovati. and ben kallo at baird saying, model 500 deliveries in 2023, and 75,000 in 2024. tesla deliveries if they match expectations for the fourth quarter or what people are assuming they will do. 1.8 million vehicles expected to be deliveredhis year. the guidance for next year, i shouldn't say guidance, the consensus from analysts of next year is deliveries of 2.13 million as you look at shares of tesla. almost everyone agrees, this is not going to move the needle financially, at least not initially. maybe 2025, when you get full production at a quarter million

vehicles a year, then perhaps you're talking about a vehicle that could impact the bottom line. not initially, and also, guys, i want to show you shares of f fisker, the company announcing it's curtailing december production in order to increase its liquidity by $300 million. as a result, it is bringing down its guidance for full-year d deliveries to 10,000 fiskers to be produced this year, full year production guidance, 10,000 produced this year. just a month ago, their guidance was 13 to 17,000. >> phil, on the pricing on the cybertruck, 60,000 is the base model. >> 100,000 is the beast. what do you think the thing with tesl tesla has always been, it's hard to be available or you really end up having to scale up. what do you think the price is going to be? >> you mean ultimately, the transaction price, let's say two

years from now, and this depends on what happens with battery prices as they scale battery production. you know, they've got a number of things that they will be bringing down their costs over the next couple of years. you've got to take that into context. i wouldn't be surprised if you see the average transaction price, once you start delivering the loend models, 75, $80,000, somewhere in that range. and that's a pure guess,ou know, a couple of ars out. nobody buys anything at base price. i heard from people yesterday saying, well, ye yes, rivian's base price is this, or the lightning is this, i've never heard anybody that said i strictlyant the nuts and bolts vehicl. >> the f 150, the base price is 36,000, but the platinum plus, 84,400. >> right. and most f 150s, becky, sell for around $55,000, most. >> the windows, remember when he

first rolled out the cyber truck, he smashed the window because he tried to show it was smash proof, and it shattered. i saw that they rolled down the windows, so i guess they're not bullet pro, but what's impressive is after words they roll up the windows, and the windows weren't broken in the doors that they rolled down into. >> no, and they recreated what they did when they first unveiled the vehicle fouyears ago, and they had the tesla executive throw, i don't know, is it a baseball, whatever it is. >> i thought it was elon musk himself that threw the met ball at it. if i remember. >> yeah, no, it s one of the executives. they had the same executive come t and do it yesterday, and it bounced off the window. that will go down as one of those that it generate conversation back then. >> and continues to do so today. phil, thank you. >> you bet. still to come, the latest

out of washington with congressman josh gotten -- josh gottheimer. and don peebles, joins us to talk, the raising cavancy rates. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc. the award-winning trading platforms. bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical sties. tailorhe platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customation. and track marketrends with up-to-the-minute news and insights. trade brilliantly with schwab.

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lawmakers continue to debate over approving u.s. aid to israel and ukraine. and while speaker mike johnson says he's confident that they'll get mething passed, democrats are making aush for deal with strings attached, worried about how e money will be used. joining us now, new jersey democrat congressman jh gottheimer, he cochairs the bipartisan problem solvers caucus. and, congressman, it's good see you. >> hi, joe. >> i'm going to start it this

way, i don't know how much the democrats had watching the republican caucus through that saga, that soap opera, whatever you want to call it, but i have to say americans look at congress, now they're watching democrats, and when you see e squad and some of the comments, ansome of the things that we have seen after october 7th, i mean, your house needs to be fixed a little bit too, i would say. are you a person that thinks that we're going to tell the only democratic nation in the middle east, are we going to have strings attached to how th use the aid? is that our position to tell israel what it needs to do for its own self preservation, and if someone could tell us? >> absolutely not. >> how come you have so many people in your party, when you pass them in the halls, what do you say, josh? >> i mean, right now, not much. i'll be honest with you, i think the idea of putting any conditions on aid to our key democratic ally, which is key to

protecting america's national security, after they have been attacked by terrorists by hamas, who butchered, decapitated, raped and so many innocent people, including, by the way, dozens of americans and, you know, ten americans remain hostages. the idea that we would try to tie the arms of our key ally while iran, russia and china continue to work together with hamas to inflict harm on our key al, and by the way, iranian-backedroxies continue to attack the united states of america, right. and the houthis and we've seen itrom iraq and syria, and obviously there's -- we've got conflict up in hezbollah in the nort lebanon, so the idea that we would do anything to get in the way of what president biden has clearly laid out our objectives, right, which is to get the hostagesome, and to make sure that we crush and kill hamas. and the terrorist organizations,

and of course ovide humanitarian aid, which i believe is also key to our objeives. >> it's a little bit weird. it's hard to -- i call it a bizarre world, but it's hard to figure out who's who in the political spectrum right now. so you're on the side of most of the republicans that don't want any strings attach. >> most of t -- i would say that you're talking about 90 plus percent of democrats don't nt strings attached. you're talking about a very vocal minority of people making the noishere. >> what about the biden administration. i thk for the most part, you know, israel probably feels like they have a solid ally in the and yet i hear some things from i don't know, i get some where conflicting signals, do you feel that way or do you feel that

it's 100%, there's no waffling on h to approach this? >> no, i think like any good friend that we are, we have convsations, we should have private conversations, but at the end of the day, i think the public, you know, the public face is very clear, the resolve is incredibly strong. the president was over there on day of the conflict, the first president to sit at the cwar cabinet. there's a recognition of how crital israel is as the democracy in the region to our national security. right? to our fight against terror, to stability in the region. so, you know, i thk there's no question here of what we need to do, which is to make sure we back our key ally, and you kno it is a tough situation. you saw hamas break the cease fire this morning early, and start firing rockets into israel again. so, you know, i'm glad we were able to get many of the hostages out, including americans, which i believe is critical, and

people shod talk about that every day, americans were killed here, americans remain hostage. we need to protect our citizens. that's key as well, and we know they have made it clear. they have said their leadership, they'll do a second, a third, a fourth, they won't stop. their objective is to destroy israel and to kill the jewish people, right? that's their objective. it's in their charter. they're not shy about it. >> i'm gratified that you think you've got the administration on your side. i'm not sure certain parts of what i read in the media is on board, josh. and if hamas was going to write a play book for how to change public sentiment you can almost seit happening. >> i think that's exactly right. the number for me, onef the greatest lessons we have learned so far is just how powerful the sinformation machine is out of

china, right, out of working with iran and ssia. we have seen it in past elections, but wittiktok, 150 million americans being fed dinformation every single day, you see what happens on college campuses, in t country. >> can i ask you aiktok question, and i know a lot of pele have been speculating about tiktok and its ownership by china, d otherwise, but the truth of tiktok is that 70% of the ownership of the company, the majority of the ownership of the company is actually owned by westerventure capital and private equity fir, investors here in the united states, and i have always thought there's a disconnect between the conversation we have about that component part and everything else that'going on andow we should think about tha >> well, i think you're totally right. the idea that the dollars are controlled by many americans, and ameran-affiliated companies, which i think they shouldn't be, but you look at the other side of who actuly

is controlling bytedance, the parent cpany, who's giving the direction here, and that ccp. at the end of the day, that's china. >> the question is the u.s. investors, are they modulating or influencing or having power over the chinese in this case or are you saying the chinese 100% ve all of the power, and you can't fathom the fact that these american investors are actually in this company? >> i'm not in the room where they're making the decisions, so it's a great and important question, one that we should ask all of the investors, t what's clear is china pulls the strings when it comes to bytedance and makes the decisions. what i'm concerned about is the algorithms, and if you look at the data, what's come out, many researchers have shown, and have been briefed on this recently, the nuer, the ratios, right, and theopics that are covered are very clearly controlled. the algorithms are clearly controlled. and i believe they're being controlled by the ccp.

there are decisions being made, and affects public opinion. and the fact that russia, china, and iran are all working together. we see this, of course, affecting ukraine as well. right? these acts of evil are working together against american interests all around the world and against our allies' interests around the world, and the power of this disinformation can't be understated, something mike gallagher and i have been working on quite a bit together, and we have to take aggressive action. tiktok in the united states should be sold or ut down. i don't think there's any question about that. >> i don't remember the exact das for funding the government, but i think it looks more likely now that we're seeing that perhaps it's going to be the same funding that kevin mccarthyformer speaker arrived at with the biden administration. is that going to allow this to happen more smoothly than what we have seen? you hear that's going to be the

conclusion? i know one of the dates is february 2nd because it's ground hog's day, because it's perfect, doing this over and over again. the over date is sooner than that? >> mid january, yeah. it's outrageous we're in this endless cycle. it's not good for the economy. it affects our military, resources we need for veterans and seniors and others, and we fought very hard, a bunch of us in the problem solvers caucus and beyond worked to, a, avoid the debt ceiling not so many months ago to pay our bills, then the governmt shutdown to, avoid that, and back in the soup in mid january when we have real issues, we have to fund israel, ukraine, taiwan. this is not going to be easy. if congressman santos is out today, you're dealing with three-seat majority, republican majoty in the house, and they're not exactly all getting along these days. you can see all the problems

ahead of us here. >> that's if kevin mccarthy doesn't leave before the end of would be a two-seat majority. it congressman gottheimer, paul ryan was here, and he think ere's a way to get the budget deal put together based on the i have heard people speculate they think it's going to be more difficult without the thre of not being able to leave and go ho before the holidays, that that's generally something that pushes congress to act. what do you think? >> i mean, generally it does, but around here these days, people want that fight. they want to shut the government down, so i don't think that would haveelped us, and the white house said i think this morning or yesterday that ukraine, the resources for ukraine will run out, they believe, by the end of the year, right, so you've got certain pressure points ahead of us, a that would give putin a chance to obviously march across ukraine, but beyond. so what do i think? i think if t threat of the government shut down mid january, all of these threats

create pressure points and the pressure points are key. the bottom line is, i think funding, migration resources, h and all of that could help actually get an ultimate budget deal acrosthe finish line. but i think this is going to be ugly. let me be clear. i think this is going to be tough. it has to be bipartisan. that's the only way a divided government is going to work. many of us, i believe, are going to have to silt at the table and not incessist at 100%, get 80%. we cannot shut the government down. >> i'm from new jersey, is this my fault, what's happening in new york with all of this? i can go work back in englewood, they don't want me here, congressman. >> i would love you to come back to englewood. >> i would love to. >> i'm going to roll out the red carpet for you in englewood cliffs again. >> whose idea is this congestion pricing thing?

>> very unpleasant lady. >> when we're here from new jersey, we raise the level of what's going on in new york city. we don't have to. >> the idea they put out, joe, they put out $15 a day to go over the gw bridge, in addition to the $17, it's $4,000 a year, imagine that. the pretax is like $7,000 a year. >> makes sense because we don't pay any other taxes here. oh, wait. >> yeah, i mean, it's absurd, and they refuse to address the pollution issue, which the mta, the worst-run, mismanaged agency in the country that lost $700 million last year to people who didn't play. fare skippers. they don't want to answer the big question, which is the pollution that they admit will suddenly plume into northern new jersey and the outer boroughs. it's cancer-causing by their own admission. they gave the bronx $130 million

in hush money to get them to stop asking questions about the pollution that's coming in there, but doing nothing for jersey. this is outrageous, and we're going to make sure you guys broadcast every morning out of englewood cliffs, that's the solution here. that might do it. >> i like it here. it's closer to andrew and everything >> thanks. >> jersey, better pizza, better b bagels. >> new york, new york. >> andrew. >> again, leaning on commuters to pay for their own problems with the mta that they have set up. >> andrew thinks new jersey is when you come out of the lincoln tunnel and go south on the turnpike, that's what he thinks new jersey is. right? and that's not a great -- >> i watched a lot of "sopranos". >> the letters are broken off and everything. >> congressman. >> look, i think it backfires on

new york, ultimately. you want more people to come back to work in the office five days a week to support all of the businesses that are around all the empty office buildings now. the way to do it isn't to tell people you have to pay this much more in taxes. >> you're right. to see the rockefeller christmas tree from jersey will cost 100 bucks before you buy the cup of hot chocolate, between parking and gas and the tolls. you can't afford it. the electricians, nurses, no one can afford to pay this. i agree, we're going to get a lot of businesses to move to jersey, operate from jersey, and stay in jersey. no one wants to do the commute and spend a hundred bucks. that's why the businesses are opposed to this. >> it doesn't really look like the garden state there. almost seems like -- >> like iceland. >> exactly. like iceland. or greenland. >> garden state was a great movie, do you remember that?

>> i do. >> unbelievable. >> we're leaving, congressman. >> come on, where you guys live is unbelievable. beautiful. >> i like it better, instead of trying to get to west chester or connecticut or something. i'm comfortable.y. >> it's god's country. >> it's the best community of new york city, and i'm 35 minutes from here. >> se, depending on what time of the day i come in, and hw fast i drive. >> cgrsmonesan, thank you. >> gooto see you. >> we'll be right back. this thing, it'saking me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq,

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new this hour, the "wall street journal" now reporting that apple and paramount are discussing bundling their streaming service. they would offer the package deal at a discount to subscribing to the services individually. the report saying the discussions are in early stages, and unclear what shape a bundle could take, offering multiple services as part of one package, in theory creases the likelihood thasubscribers will cancel on any given month. could help with churn as some of these services are thinking about this. i imagine this goes back to everyone wanted to unbundle, no

take a quick look this, market stats for you, the month of november, winners in the dow, take a look at this list, salesforce up more than 25%, up again this morning. boeing gaining nearly 24%. intel up about 22.5%, and american express up about 17% for the moh, when it comes to the the best perforng sectors in the s&p 500 for the month, i.t. leading thway, nearly 13%, followed by al estate, a little more than 12%, consumer discretionary financials rising close to 11% as well. more on what investors can expect heading into the final trading month of the year. meet gold bond daily healing. a powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals, and smooths dry skin. with 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins.

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oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for you. it's not just possible, it's happening. commercial real estate is feeling the punch. latest national vacancy rate for office properties dropped 19% in the third quarter. that's just three points below the historic high set back in 1991. prices for office buildings have fallen 20% to 30% from the peak levels. joining us to talk about challenges in the sector is done peebles, the peebles corporation ceo and chairman. done, there have been so many people who have worried about what the lows in commercial real estate will mean to the broader economy. what is happening on the ground right now? >> what's happening on the ground is people are not coming back to work. office space around the country in the most active commercial

cities like washington, d.c., for example, new york city, occupancy rarely hits 40%. washington, d.c., the federal government, the biggest consumer of office space as owners and temps, are occupying about 25% of the their space. that's happening around the country in cities like los angeles and san francisco and is having a chilling effect on values. we're seeing a big step-up in terms of property owners turning back the key to these office buildings to their lenders. we'll see that accelerate a bit into this month and certainly firsquarter and second quarter of 2024. >> do you think it's enough at pressure of people handing the buildings back to the lenders, to t banks to create some sort of problem in the financial sect? >> i think in the regional banks who own most of these commercial loans, i think you're going to see some difficulty there. i think that what's happened, which is very unusual in these circumstances, is that the lenders don't want the

properties back. so they're encouraging these property owners to hang in there, and the property owners are looking at the opportunity cost and want to turn the page. you have thenverse of what normally happens in a financial crisis. but i think this is going to continue andt's going to hurt local and regional banks both on assets that th own and losses they'll take but also new business. they're not going to be ableo deploy capital outside. the numbers will go down and earnings will dr significantly. >> is there enough private capitato step in and take over the buildings from the people the loans? over their heads on >> yeah. look, the financial markets are very efficie. private credit has played a major role in commeral real estate for the last five to seven years. that'll continue to happen. what's happening here, though, these values have to go down. office buiing values are down over 50%. places like washington, d.c., they could be down 60% to 70%, so the firsttep has to be that the lenders take these assets

back and decide to write off these losses and how they get handled. then you'll see private credit in and buy these buildings and put themo more productive uses. >> is it safe to assume you would be one of those buyers at lower prices? >> absolely. we are in the marketplace now, beginning to look at opportunities to buy. we're chasing a couple of major office buildings right now in a couple cities around the country and ising capital to do more of that. i think there will ba tremendous opportunity from an investor side to get outside returns by buying these assets and putting them to more productive uses or to make them more competitive in the office space d looking for new te tenants who wouldn't ordinary consume as much market space and prices will bring them to the market. i think price will bring more tenants to the market late '24 and then of course going into 2025. i think with some change in policies, i think you'll see

more aggressive use of office space as people begin to go back to work. >> very quickly, we have to run, but will by 2025, do you think those office buildings will be more occupied? >> i think slightly. but i think that thit's a new normal and a shift on where people work. i think we'll see more employment hubs as opposed to centers so people can live closer to where they work. also you'll have these office buildings converted to housing and people will be able to live effectively.ntly and cost >> done, thanks a lot. >> thank you. coming up, what investors can expect as we head into the final month of trading of 2023. and later, austin, texas, experiencing something it's never seen before. an outflow of residents.

good morning. welcome to the homestretch, december trading set to kick off on wall street. we just nished up the best month of the year for all three

major averages today. investors will parse new comments from jay powell since bankers are about to go quiet before the next rate decision. we'll talk about the latest economic data and what those officials will be weighing. and the cyber truck is on the road, tesla delivering the first few of those futuristic evs. full details ahead as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right. now ♪ good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq rket site in times square. i'm joe kernen with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. u.s. equity futures are mixed, more mixed than when we started, in fact. the dow is holding on to slight gains, but the nasdaq is now down over 50 points, and the s&p

down about 9. november was the best month of the year for all three major averages. it's kind of interesting after, remember the run-up tougust when everyone on the street had been brish. they all turned bullish. then whad a sell-off through october, and now ooh ba bouncebo new highs. the dow had its best month since a lot of it -- october of 2022. and a lot of it had to do with that drop we saw ithe 10-year and in treasury yields as well, down to 4.33 right now. if it's 500 trucks in the fourth quarter, when do you predict we see e first truck on the road? >> what would be the chaes of spotting one? when do you think we'll come in and say i saw one of those trucks? you've seen one because you were at -- >> i saw one. >> i'm talking about one -- on

the roads. >> next month i think. there's a tesla -- one of the very few tesla -- >> dealerships. >> -- dealerships in paramus. it won't hit the bottom line where we see the first one. >> you're likely to see one where? i assume they'll get bought in xas, here, bought maybe even -- maybe san francisco. >> california i was going to say. >> once again, you're leading -- >> new jersey. >> i thought you were -- >> tristate area. >> tristatarea. in ohio. indiana. kentucky. >> people e new york as a sort ofynonym for new jersey, new york -- >> i agree with that. i feel like there artimes where i'm somewhere and people say, hey, where did you fly from? >> you say new york? >> sometimes i mightay the

east coast. or i might say new york, the new york area. i don't immediately say -- i may not immediately say -- josh hammer would be mad at me. >> when asked where you went to college, do you say caridge? >> i say colorado. i'm more proud of colodo, obviously. >> okay. >> m.i.t. do the cambrge thing and try to -- >> the nerd cap taof the universe. >> that fits. >> there you go. you know that joke about the foo bird. >> the what? >> the foo bird. when the shoe fits or when the -- almos tesla delivering -- >> you almost got me. >> after andrew's comment. es it reallyatter? tesla delivering its first cyber trucks, elon musk hyping the --

oh, perfect -- ev at an event in austin, texas, where everyone is movi moving, apparently, a bulletproof steel body, a zero to 60 acceleration time. are you kidding me? >> pretty insane. >> 3.6 second. >> have you been in a tesla and just floored it and see what happens? >> i have not done it. >> oh, my god. you feel the forces. it's outrageous. >> it's got to be like a ferrari or sething, like a 911. >> dragging a porsche. >> you he to see that video. >> he didn't talk pricing, but tesla's website shows the base model starting at about $61,000. we've been talking about this. >> that's too fast for you. you shouldn't buy one. >> 50% higher than the price the

company waoriginally targeting before any tax breaks or other incentives, but probably the base model, phil lebeau figuring it will be about -- if you get one, you old be paying $75,000, probably. >> when the shoe fits and the puck founding -- >> the foo bird -- >> oh, god. >> the puck founding -- >> this can only end in bad way. >> the foo bird supposedly, you can't get it off -- it's indelible. so, when the foo, instead of when the shoe fits, it's when the foo -- >> i think m santelli is waiting. >> all right. >> okay. back to the broader markets. mike santoli, what are you watching this morning, and can you say it three times fast? >> no. i was waing to see how it ended. you guys with your jumbles and everything over there, all t whatm i looking at obously u cited it, wh a strongonth iwas for stocks.

at i fd part interting to the s&p 500literally heip sa level yesterday we closed two years ago. about a 1.2%eturn om dember 2nd of 2021. 19% upside in the s&p 50 wiout dividends is aoundtrip last year.entially a recovy of 1.5%lessreasury yids on h holdrates nearero. th is about when the fed started to hike. intere rates have been a huge part of the story. th've undeined lots of parts of the market, but they're not the entire story. the economy keeps growing and earnings keep moving ahead. i was poinng out this echo we fl out of tt th in the r. st cup molls and he now revered, not saying we'r heading straight to 4,800 on jaary 2nd,here we were t

yes ago today. but here's t dow. it's performed closer to its all-time high, and also at a -week high. when it outperforms in phases, it doesn't go down as much as the other indexes in seloff, outpformedhe s&p00, fewer of the huge tech stocks, not as levered to thoserends, but it'scting better yesterday, a big boost from sasforce and unitedhlth. it's a quirky constructi. but it's interesting to watch as a kind of a beacon. couple of eks above that level ever in, you know, hisry. so, worth keeping an eye on that. this is the 60/40 portfolio in an etf form. huge month. thbest mon in decades for that straty last month, because bondand stocks rallied together this is good reminder you're still digging out of a hole. very rare weakness ithis tritional retiment-te portfolio antrying to claw back at this point, still down

8% in two years. >> can we talk small-cap stocks? >> yeah. >> they've had a really great month, too, the russell 2000 up 8.8%. but they had aot more ground to make up and still do, i think down 26% or someing from the his. absolutely. they got really a good charge, specifically afterhe cpi report november 14th. that's when you see a lot of the oader measuresf the market ideahat finally if you can get inflation getting some downside momentum and the economy remains okay, that's been the formula for the markets. now, financials are also acting better. relief on yields.ave perked up, everything is ving in th diction. it's way, watoo soon to say indicative of 2024, i thin you know, theye eaper than the rest of the market, they're ceainly not crowd. but thatoesn't mean in itself they're going to sort ofommand the leadership of thoverall market. i still think you have to watch,

you know, this 1,800 level. it's been playing with that for the better part of two years. >> we're trying to figure out the rules have changed for what you're allowed to say on air and whether it's good to be a groundbreaker like elon musk or -- >> what doouhink? >> i'm going to be a lat adopter on that, probably. >> you are always a smt man, mike. >> unless provoked, of course. >> thanks, mike. don't even talk about almost - saying it. >> good idea. you go first. bondarket.alk more about the has the ristmas rally come early? is there more to this, or is is a head ke? >> think if u step back and look at the waythe market has performed this year, the ebbs and flows of the marke and you compare it to the typical

pattern going back to the '50s, it's followed step f step throughout the course of the year. ere was a brief period in early october when we had the terrorist attacks in israel and the respon and where things got a little dicey there. but we've follow that pattern. if that pattern is tcontinue, you can certainly see strength into the new year d, you know, december is the most positive month of the year historically, and when you have strong years, it tend to finish strong. >> okay. that's the short-term outlook. >> yes. >> give me the 2024 -- where are we 12 months from today? it factors in a whole other way, i think, and it will suggest a lot about the economy, potentially a lot about the politics, what's happening in thcountry. >> yeah. >> what happens? >> there's so much. you look at the dallas/seattle game last night, three-quarters of money was on dallas to cover the spread. they didn't cover the spread. if we can't get a football game

right, who in their right mind thinks they knowhere the market and the economy will go? every day we're looking at things from multiple perspectives and how things go. for 2024, we see a fairly good backdrop for stocks. we were talking before about the low i print in november. the fed is donhiking rates. than cycle is over. we could see cuts early in the year, but i don't think we necessarily need to see cults in the year f the market to keep going. and 14th was a very important day. we saw the broadening out of the rally. we saw themall caps outperform the s&p 500 by 3.5 percentage points. it happens five other times in hiory. it's a watershed moment. more importantly, lead into that period, we saw the russell 2000 oversold for 34 stight trading days. that has only ppened four other times throughout history. when you see 30 or more days when it's been oversold, it has been followed by positive returns for small caps every time. and what that's indicative of is

that 34 days of oversold, that's investors selling indiscriminately. >> the base case requires the fed to do what? >> to stay on hold and for inflation -- >> for the entirety of the year. >> the fed is done. >> other people think they'll have to lower. >> markets pricing in april -- >> jamie dimon will tell you the opsite, the way. thingoing into -- the st the d not toe cuinratee inpril, beuse theed comes in and cuts as early as april, that means there's bigger problems ahead. you think about it, we're in an environment now that the fed is done, good news is good news again in the market for the economy, and bad news is bad news. if we see weakening of economic data, the market's not gng to like that. we have an ism report today, a rert above 50 would be positive. we've been ia recession in the

manufauring ctor over a year. that's hisrically been associated with recessions. t ovall, i think when you see this broadening out of the rally, november, again, we saw the biggest easing of financial conditionsn the goldman sachs financial conditions index in the index's history going back to the early '80s for over the course of a month. the only other periods we re close were82, '9 and 2020. those are pretty good periods for stocks going forward. >> there was so muchoney on dallas that i actually took the money line on setle. it was 4.ine. great rk/rewa. >> exactly. but i should have taken the points and did the over. i think oregon is going to cover tonight. do you? >> i don'tven know what the spread -- >> ten points. but they've been winning by 29 points. >> yeah.

i'm more miami of ohio. >> oxford, ohio? >> exactly. they're playing toledo i think for the chipotle. >> for the m.a.c. >> go, redhawks. >> thank you, paul. have a great weekend. hope you win. >> i hope for washington. coming up, we'll be right back.

♪ upbeat music ♪ upbeat music

best ideas for 2024 this morning in the airline sector. we didn't know till this morning. i'm not going to tell you until i introduce our next guest, helene becker. do we need a drum roll or -- this guy is a friend of the show. we have him on a lot with phil lebeau. let's just do it.

what's your best pick for 2024? >> hi,oe. thanks. delta. delta air lines, dal is the stocsymbol. we have $49 price target, which is about 5.4 times, and a price vaed we bit da. the last few mos, but we think the market is starting to differentiate betweedelta and the peer group. we think delta is going to work for next year after two years of focusing on united. we're pivoting to delta. >> a lot has to do with europe, i guess, so that's back. atlantic passenger segment has delta enjoy that.. european airlines were slow to add capacity? >> yea. you're really good at this.

european airlis did not add capacity last year, while the u.s. airlines did in the north atlantic. and in 2024, we expect a lot of addition capacity from them. jetblue, which is not a european airline, but expanding in europe, they've applied to fly to lisbon for next summer. so, we're seeing on the one hand on low-cost long-haul airlines goininto the market. on the other hand, delta is only growing capaty by 6% next summer. so, we think that in the atlantic, specifically -- so, we think that their best customer or rather their worst customer is a low-fare airline's worst customer. we think that premium differential between them and others will continue. and then to your question, they're adding service to the pacific, where they have a very strong position, having ne the northwest airlines position a

bunch osm year of years ago. that gives them a really good broad, international footprint. in central america, aeromexico and south america, that agreement should enable them to ntinue to grow their international footprint closer to that 50/50 mix from the sort of 60/40 mix it's right now. >> what is happeni in pacific travel to -- what happens so -- it was muted, and what's happening that's more positive now? is china part of the equation? >> to, yes and no to china. in 2017 there were 100 fligh with the china and u.s. airlines. now, this summer there were 12. now there are 18. and by the end of the year

there will be 24. so, we're still way down. we still have the 10-year program with china, so that has huge positive implications. we're not expecting china to grow as much as we're expecting threst of the pacific to grow. what we see happening is that the asia-pacific region was the last to reopen. and what we've seen, and you guys have done such a good job with phil reporting on this over the last few years, is that you w domestic operations opening, domestic markets opening sooner. then you started to see regional markets opening d people feeling comfortable traveling to those regions and the atlantic. so, people started to fly further and further. and of course thwhole -- all of europe was open this summer. i mean, everybody i know went to italy except me. and now next summer, the whole

asia-pacific, which was last to open earlier this year, starts reopening and people want to do this bucket list trip and they're gettg back on the road and going, again, fuher afield. so, that's a lot of at we see ppening. and then of course the financial side, delta's just got a great balance sheet. >> i'm with you. it's, like, where are we going in europe? we know we're going to italy. where else do we want to go? you start with italy. >> apparently so. >> it could be tuscany. it could be rome. >> yeah. >> maybe i can get -- maybe i'll get a cheaper fare. you still like united, though, right? >> yes. ye wdo. we still have united as an outperform. that's been our best idea for a few years. it's worked. >> covering my bases.

helene becker, thanks. when we come back, the return to office effect in the lone star state. guess who is there this morning live in austin? jane is there where something unbelievable is happening. >> they see keep austin weird. we have new data from deep in the heart of texas. to be like wow... what did i do to get here? (city ambient noise) right. work. you worked hard and it's time for a bank that'll work hard for you. everbank brings security and a guarantee. that you'll earn a yield in the top 5% of competitive accounts. going, got you where you want to be. we're the partners for your next move. everbank. advantage, you in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year.

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as we monitor the stream of people going back to work after the pandemic, certain cities are standing out. this morning, jane wells is live in one of them, and that is austin, texas. jane, it is great to see you this morning. what's happening? >> reporter: great to see you, becky. we're watching these trend to see if they're actual trend. austin has been a magnet for talent and technology for years. there's no state income taxes. but check this out -- red fin is saying more people are moving out of austin than moving in. it's never seen that before. the median home price is down 3%. red fin tells us anecdotally, some of its agents in the bay area said some californians are come back. the census bureau says 300,000 people have returned to the office in san francisco. but let's be clear, more people are still moving east than west

monopoly in 2021, 105,000 californians moved to texas while ly 36,000 went the other way. lastear, that gap narrowed and california welcomed 42,000 texans, more than from any other state. tom singer from the austin technology council, a california transplant, thinks part of this strong trend may be people returning to work. but not just that. >> the other problem is our prices have gone up a lot. we're starting to see housing prices drop a little bit, but my house went up by, like, 30% in 18 months during the pandemic. it's come down, but it's still higher than it was in 2019. >> reporter: well, now the most famous transplant is elon musk, and he was here last night introducing the cyber truck at the gigafactory. but when musk opened his brand-new tesla global engineering adquarters earlier this year, it was in california. there's stale lot of engineering singer says austin needs more

educated tech rkers because the demand is still here. back to you. >> it almost feels like a yogi berra-ism. the place is too crowded, nobody goes there anymore. >> reporter: well, and you can blame all the californians for that, for driving uphe home prices. it's true. i waat gathering of a bunch of cfos last night here, most o them from somewhere else. and they're not seeing people flee back to california, but they are hearing californis saying why should i move to aust? yeah, there's no state income taxes, but the house is going to cost the same, and the propey taxes are differt. >> higher,ight? or probably not. >> reporter: yes, they are. >> they are? wow. all right, jane. thank you. >> reporter: because you have prop 13 in california to protect you. this whole calculus going on, becky. >> iuess it depends on your jane, thank you. always a pleasure. hope we get to see you again.

it's been way too long. when we come back, cybersecury expert chr krebs helps us break down a new threat. a report from meta that calls out china. you can gean expanded audio version of our special charlie munger "a life of whit and wisdom" in our podcasteed. [ "i'll be seeing you" by the five satins ] ♪ ♪ what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today,

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the big economic news this week, the fed's preferred inflation gauge rising iline with expectations. october pce was up 3.5% year over year. that was down from 3.7% in cement. for a look at what this could an for the fed's rate-setting agenda, we want to bring in former dallas president and cnbc contributor richard fischer. hey, richard. how you doin >> good morning. i'm happy. we beat the seahawks. i was the game. i was lighted to be with one of the great actors and the producer of "yellowstone." >> really. >> yep. stayed up late. >> tyler sheridan. i'assuming.

>> he was there. he's there almost every game now. who's so wonder inforful in tha. >> is it now going to be matthew mcconaughey? can you tells anything? >> you have to stay tuned there. you know that. >> could tell you but i'd have to kill you. >> tyler sheridan has a new seri out. >> he is a remarkably talented man. >> sly stallone too. i can't member this one. >> tulsa. he's a great guy. and she is absolutely wonderful. it was a good night. we w. we beat seattle. we didn't think we could, but we did. >> i know. should have taken points. >> why don't we talk about more

boring stuff? boring but stuff that matters. we had ian shepardson on earlier today, and he thinks that the fed was too slow -- i think everybody does -- >> terms of raising rates. they underjudged inflation as it was happening. but he thinks they are underjudging disinflation on the way back down. do you agree with that? >> well, the core rate is still above 3. i don't think they're going to do anything in december. i wouldn't advocate for it were i still there. and i think they've done a pretty good job. again, everybody loves to criticize too much, too little. you make a mistake in the beginning. we talk about this so many times on the show, embracing the transitory inflation argument. and they pulled this off without destroying the economy. manufacturing is in recession, no question. but you just had a good little segment on austin. you know, the dallas fed gives me a monthly report still, and

our economy here in the third quarter grew at over 5% in every single sector. so, up growth here. you have growth in florida and utah and so on. we're still consuming, and we saw some big numbers on consumption still that were just reported yesterday. yet we're finding out, no question, people aren't hiring as much, they may not be playing people off as much, but there's no question we're slowing down. that's the intent of the federal reserve, to keep rates at a level that slows down, takes off the inflationary pressure. and so far they've done a good job. >> it's not about criticizing the fed as much as trying to look at the breakdown between what the fed has been signaling and what markets are interpreting. and the markets, at least, seem to be getting ahead of things again. you see the kind of collapse in yields recently. which do you think is right?

>> well, as we've said before on the show, the long-term fed fund futures market is never correct. and right now, if you go way out there, they're pricing in a constant rate above 4% out five years and longer. the yields have come down significantly. the real question for me is not the fed here. it's the auction schedule of how much and who is going to digest over $800 billion in offerings of the u.s. treasury, the weekly treasury offerings in the first quarter. but it's been impressive. whether it's the 1 year, the 2 year, the 10-year, we have seen a big rally in the bornd market. those who took that bet instead of piling into stocks, the fortune 493, which hasn't done as well, or the s&p 493, they made a good move. the question, is it likely to be

sustained given the auction schedule. we'll see. >> you think yields will rise in the first quarter because you don't think there will be buyers, that rates will have to go higher to get buyers? >> becky, i'm just asking the question, who will buy and at what price. >> a provocative question. i wonder what you think the answer is. >> well, i'm kind of an agnostic here. i do think we have to remember, rates will stay above 4% for a long time. that's a huge move from where it was before. we talked about this. i thought the 10-year treasury would go to 5%. it did momentarily. everybody freaked out. since then, prices have rallied and rates have come down. i still think you have to remember we're at 4%-plus. and the cost of refinancing over the next three years will drive

up the cost of debt for the united states government, the cost of carry, almost to double what it has been. so, we'll have to see if the bond vigilantes come out. so far, they haven't. and that's i think a real test of the marketplace. >> i see. taylor sheridan is from texas by waco. >> yeah. i remember, we had a great british journalist for many years who called it wacko. oldest university in texas is baylor, beautiful little town. >> and it's where magnolia -- it's where chip and joanna gaines do all theoren vaccinations. it's really cool. >> they were at the game last night. >> kelly riley.

>> she is the nicest, smartest -- i'll send you a picture of us together last night, joe. she's just a lovely woman. but she plays a great kcharacte on that show. >> hard as nails. >> it's a great show. >> it is great. people are just seeing it on network tv. >> richard, thank you. >> thanks. cybersecurity expert chris krebs joins us next. after last month's massive solar flare added a 25th hour to the day, businesses are wondering "what should we do with it?" i'm thinking company wide power nap. [ employees snoring ] anything can change the world of work. om hr to payroll, adp designs for the next anything.

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lcome back to "squawk box." social media platforms are tracking foreign threats ahead of the u. presidential electionses. a new repo says china is becoming one of the most aggressive actors trying to sway u.s. public opinion through fake accounts, but it hasn't been successful. meta took down two corporate chinese networksargeting fore foreigners. joining us right now to talk about this, the threatening landscape,hris krebs, the former director of the government cybersecurity

structure, now the presint of piacle one. good morning. >> goomorning. which of the platforms are most exposed ght now? and what can be done about it, if anything? >> yeah. look, this has been going on with china driving information operatns for a couple years w. so, it was about year and a half ago, a french intelligence think tank put out a report basically calling what chinaas doing the russificatioof chinese intelligence and information operatio. so, where russia has been very dominant in pushing propaganda, ke news, disinformation for years and years,ow china is getting into the game, kind of copying the russian playbook. they'rvery active. but to the point meta has made, they're not getting the traction they want. there'perhaps some cultural differences they're not picking up on. each subsequent iteration.ith what i'm seeing is met across their various platforms, they're committed to rooting this stuff

out. they've godedicated teams. they've had a bit of a drawback in what their resources and head count is, but they're still committed to it. they're making these findings transparent. >> the next piece is what about tiktok? >> tiktok has similar resource investments. they have trust and safety teams. theyre finding these sorts of campaigns. and they're taking them down and exposing it. the recent eu digital services act is requiring companies to reporthat resources they have -- tiktok has resources, facebook has resources. others don't have as much. >> how do you think they're trying to that nip late, to the extent they can, this political moment? what is the misinformation that is being put out there? which candidates are the chinese

trying to stay up? which are those they're -- what is the underlying theme? >> there's always, like, a grain of truth, and so they're amplifying good stories about china and what they're doing globally and what's happening in china, and they're amplifying similarly bad stories about the u.s. there was a campaign that was exposed about a year ago about where earth companies, u.s. and australia, rare earth companies, and the goal of this story is that the chinese were amplifying the environmental records of u.s. and australian company and yet not giving any sort of -- >> we're not into a siation where somebody in china has decided, you know what, we want to stand up president biden over former president trump? or we're trying to stand up former psidentrump ovejoe biden? sow the seeds of -- is that -- >> it's too early to tell. that's probably what the

intelligence community is really looking deeply into right now in advance of the 2024 election. what are the motivations of president xi, president putin, and others, and how they would want an election to play out? it's not just going to be who's president, but which way the senate goes. the house is a little bit harder for some of these countries i ink and thr security services, because they're so diverse, andt's really becaused on individual house races. it's a lot tougher. >> you said that meta has cu back on staffing for this. i knew meta had cut head count. i was inking more was for the meta stuff. but ey've cut their staff for this as well? >> they've cut staff across the thiss the post covid traction where everybody is getting more streamlined. >> it's been in the places they've been policing. >> the folks i know that have been there for years are still there and committed and executing. i think the big challenge right now, and something that was pulled out of that report, is

the recent transparency report, is the lack of sharing between government and the platforms right now, in part due to some of the court cases that are ongoing right now and that will soon go in front of the supreme court. so, to a certain extent, facebook and meta, facebook, instram, they're on their own. >> you didn't mentio"the santelli exchange" in-- "x" in y of that. >> there's not a lot of transparency here. we don't know what their policies are or how they're inforcinthem. that's what folks are looking to e eu and the digital services for. what are their commitments here? they have policies. we know they have policies. how are they moderating and enforcing against -- >> you're talking about what's happening in europe. there's an argument being made that we, the united states, and the ftc, are trying to hp rope. do you know about this?

>> generally familiar. >> that we're trying to help europe a we shouldn't be. ted cruz a others said we're effectively hurtg our own american companies because we're trying to help enforce or assist the europeans in effectively enforcing their laws. what do you make of that? >> it's not just limited to social media platforms. look, we don't have in the u.s. a feral privacy law. and yet the europeans have had gdpr protection for years now. so, tech companies in particular are baselining against european laws because they don't want to ha to bifurcate government structe between the u.s. and the eu. so, a lot of those -- the here domestically.ing over >> right chris, want tohank you. >> thanks so much. >> fascinifascinating. i don't know howorried w should be. >> in advae of the 2024 eltion?

>> yeah. compared to what people were talking about in 2020 and 2016. >> theotivatns of e actors >> whathworst that will trumor bid? yeah, you should worry. does it matter who skews it one way or the other? >> i think the adversaries are differt thanhey were in 2020. what re our adversaries want? ke your pick. they're th bad f us. >> i think russia and china in 20 to generallhung back. >> can i ask just one related question. if we find demonstrable evidence that -- there's one thing to find russidoing something or not doing something, but if china is doing something, does it change what we do to retaliate? do we? >> okay. so, you mentioned in the lead-up that we were going to talk about the water stem attack in pennsylvania, so researchers have tied this to cyber avengers. they came out and claimed it.

this is an iranian revolutionary guard linked group of hackers, so it may be that the iranian government has done this to a water system in the united states. critical infrastructure. a beer, a brewery in pennsylvania. i mean, that's critical infrastructure. >> is it yuenglig? >> unfortunately, it's not. what do we do? what would we do if china hits us with an attack in advance of the '24 election? these are the questions, i think, the white house is struggling with that administrations in the past, what d we do to russia after the attack in 2017? >> that's a lot scarier. >> it's sanctions, right? do we take it up a notch? >> thank you, sir. >> thank you. all right, news just out on the u.s. electric vehicle sector. phil lebeau has that news and joins us right now. hey, phil, what's up? >> becky, these are new rules being proposed by the biden

administration, essentially what they've outlined in the past in terms of making production come here to the united states. these are the rules in terms of what levels of components and sourcematerials will have to come here. we're not going to go through all of them. these are transition levels through now and 2026. north american components for 2024, 60% of what goes into the ev batteries will have to come from the u.s., canada, mexico, basically that area. critical materials and minerals that go into the battees either from the u.s. or our free trade partners. basically, they're saying, not china. 50% of wt goes into the batteries will have to come fr thoscountrs in 2024. you take a lo at ev sales and w theyre expected to grow through 2030, remember they're going to be topping about 3 milln in024 here and then it continues jumping up

from there. gm and ford, ayou take a look at those shares, remember, the have deferred a lot of their ev invements but they're still building a number of giga factories of their own for battery production and whe you're talking about giga factories, the biggest is in texas, owned by tesla, but they have battery production in califoia. rivian is, for the most part, going to be rking with suppliers here. it will be working with suppliers here as it does right now in north america, so guys, these are the rules that the automakers will need to hit in order for you and i to get the $7,500 federal tax credit, and rememberwe can apply that at dealerships or directly from the auto maker if wee buying directly, target january 1st. it's no longer where you have to put it on your tax form at the end of the year. >> phil, thank you. see you later. when we come back, we will talk markets and get you ready for the firstrindat adg y of december. "squawk box" will be back after a quick break.

in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. that rate is increasing as more and more businesses

move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments need the next level network. [speaker continues in the backgroun the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business.

just over a half hour now to thopening bell, first one of joining us now, advisor fr sand hill global advisornd a cnbc contributor.

just to summarize, and i don't want to puwords in your mouth, but looking atome of your sort of the inflationary ift in expectations, the positive shift that we've seen that gave us this great november, you think persists inhe next four weeks through the rest of the year? >> i think it will. you know, we've seen such a significant sentiment shift om where we were in the third quarter to where we have been in this current quarter that we're in that i think that will continue, but one thing i think we have to be mindful of is that as we look to 2024, if rates stay where they're at or even if they do come down a little bit, we're still going to be in a environment than we have been in for the better part of the last decade or so when we had zero interest rate environment, and if we look at what's happening next year, we have over $5.5 trillion of global

corporate bonds that will need to be refinanced next year. so, i ink, as time goes on, we are going to start to see more of an impa from the interest rate environment that we just han't seen yet in some parts of the econo. so, i think it could potentially weigh on corrate earnings growth potential in some parts of the market, not all, of course, and i think the market's already cked this up this year, of course, where we've seen a lot of cash rich mpanies that have no need for financing to fuel their growth. those have worked the be while others have not. and we've seen some of that change more recently with more broad participation in the market, but i do think that as time goes on, we're going to see more and more of an impact from >> along with the inflation sentiment, we did see rates come down, which everybody liked, but it's not zero, and the ten-year was above 5%. it's now above 4%. but as you say, it's not zero,

and maybe coanies got used to that for a while. so, if that's true, your conclusion is to just be slightly oveeight equities? is that -- and whi equities? i think you said small caps and some other sectors? >> our positning right now, we have a slight overweight equity but more in the small and mid cap space in the u.s. if we look at that space, of course, the are risks there. those are companies that need capital to grow for the mo part. t valuation had become very inexpensive, and really, in our view, had become overdone. we have seen the areas of the market start to perk up over the st month or so and think there is still some re room to go. i think if we look at large cap equity as well, you know, i think we could see a little bit more room there in terms of further appreciation, but we we see in those areas of small s and mid cap. but overall, i think it's important to stay disciplined in

this market. we also have a slight overweight to bonds where you can earn more than the rate of inflation with yields where they're at today. >> very good. thanks, brenda. >> thank you. >> brenda viiello. no jobs report today. >> no. >> next week. next friday, even though it's december 1st. >> i forget the reasons why. it's calendar reasons. >> we'll getou ready f it on monday "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street i'm david far, he is jim cramer, and we are live from post nine of the new york stock exchange. carl has the morning off. let's give you a look at futures as we wrap up trading for this week, and of course start a new month. and you can see perhaps on a bit of a lower ne, particularly for the nasdaq. our road map does start with that bigar