reporting. >> yeah, and the logic favors cleveland cliffs. they have the union on their side. a week or two weeks is the time frame. >> mr. weiss? >> stock traded down 6%, so i bought some more yesterday and today. >> good stuff v. a good weekend, everybody. see you on "closing bell." >> and thank you, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead this hour. stocks are jumping and bond yields are slumping today. the s&p is back up at levels last seen in july, after jay powell said uncertainty over the economic outlook is unusually elevated and signaled fed officials are done hiking. that's the way the market is reading it. our market guest is bullish but wary of the head winds. and u.s. manufacturing shrinking by more than expected today. we'll look at this tug of war in stocks between weak data and a

dovish fed. two rivals reportedly bundling up. we'll tell you what it would mean for consumers. a special three buys and a bail edition. let's start with the market numbers and dom chu has the latest. >> near session highs right now. to your point about the stock market jumping right now. if you look at the broader s&p 500, the bigger measure of the large-cap market, we're 4596. we touched 4600 at the highs of the session, so up 32 points is the high of the session so far. down 13 points at the lows. so generally positive. the dow industrials, 36,237, up 285 points. three quarters of 1 hern%. the nasdaq, 14,300. and just for reference sake, the highs for the year that kelly mentioned back in july for the

s&p 500, 4607. so we're literally within striking distance of that level. again, 4818 was the record high, still a little ways away from that. if you look at the sectors overall, banner month for november for the stock market overall. but the three best performing sectors in the s&p 500 during that massive one-month span, real estate, no surprise, with falling interest rates. technology and the financial sector services spider. again, those are the best performing sectors. if you take a look at the worst performing sector, it was maybe no surprise there. the near-term and medium term down trend in energy prices, causing a one-month decline of roughly 1%, just about flat. so keep an eye on energy. and then the stock of the day right now is pfizer on the drug side of things. this on headlines that the company is halting trials at one of its experimental weight loss treatments due to adverse side effects from patients taking that particular drug. the news, as you can see, last

been a drag on pfizer shares, pretty much all day long. over the course of the last year, down 43%. so keep an eye on those key sectors. tech, financials and real estate, the best performers last time. we'll see what the santa claus rally provides in this narrative. >> dom, thank you very much. well, did powell just kick off an early santa claus rally? his dovish tone signaling rate hix c hikes could be done. and the market now sees a 59% chance of the first rate cut coming in march. but my next guest says if you're look to get into this market, don't expect a straight line up from here. joininme now is mark avolon. i don't know if you have had a chan to look through the powell comments or the reaction, but they are off to the races with this. >> they are. and i think the investors are hearing what they swanwant to h because he gave a little bit of

both. but i also read he said don't expect rate hikes any time soon. i think after we had a fed that was clearly too accommodating for well over a decade to then have to fight with both hands very aggressively to bring inflation down, and then to expect in just a few months later they would reverse course. the only way we see them doing that is if we have bad economic no news, so that is not good for investors, either. our base case is we're level for longer and that could continue a slow growth, which isn't always bad for stocks. >> i think the way to put this fairly, it's not powell signaling rate cuts, it's the mark going, we've watched this movie before and we know what happens. we now how this plays out. i think there's typically seven months from the last hike to the first cut, something like that. so they're just saying, yeah, we e expecting the tone will shift materially in the next

couple of months. what i kind interesting is the llishness of investors and economists, because you don't start cutting --aybe in this case if inflation falls, but you don't start cutting until the data kgets a lot worse. >> that's righ with a forward mulple, you need a lot of earnings growth to justify the future value that investors are bidding up for stoc. yet in the same breath, we're sang we're bullish on stocks because the fed is going to ease. i don't think you can have it both way i do think we'll get a straddle anplay it down the middle. i don't think we go into a deep rece recession, which will prohibit the fed fromeeding to lower rates, but i don't think it's going to be a robust game-on that will justify this from an earnings expansion. >> one thing people will have to ponder for 24 is what to do on the bond side of. this we can show the ten-year, which even i't as dramatic as the two year, which has dropped

like a rock in the last six weeks or so. how does that change? do you think the relative attraction of stocks or maybe people still find these bond levels attractive if they're better than what you would rmally get in a slowing economy. >> wel the drop in money market rates is going toe bullish for investable assets. that usually will be the case because investors need a place to go. i'm trying to wrestle a lot of money out of markets, and there's a bipile of money there. and when it does, it will be bullish for stocks. for banced investors who have that bond portion, they will look at mid or even high mid single digit returns. and against an uncertain backdrop iequities, if you're finding your true risk profile bonds, talking about high-grade corporates, treasuries, yoget a tax break in there. but bonds can give balanced investors at least a fight to get to and overall market retu, whereas if we saw in

22, it got hit. looking backwards at the 60/40 is not the way to . bonds already took their beating and will do a lot better going forward. >> interesting. it makes me wonder about financials in particular, cause that's kind of where this tug of war is best i would say. if people are into the finaials because they think they're going to get some, you know, relief here from bter financial -- you know, i just see it as a slowing economy doesn't sound like a great formula for them either. but you like them here, don't you? >> that's a grt point. i'm with you in that a slowing economy can hurt banks that are dependant on lending that may have more coercial real estate expo exposure. our emphasis has been more on the money centered banks, th broadly diversified banks, and when you look at a bank like bankf america that got beaten down, i think it was down to 26 level just a few weeks ago,

largely because their bond portfolios were devalued because we had that rate spike up. consistent with this rate plunge down, you can look at that chart and see what happens to a strong bank when they getetter valuations of their embeed bond portfolios. so if people are selective, they can find good places to hide out in financials. that's a good offset to the tech runup we have seen. >> quick final queion. we're both talking about the slowdown. is it possible that a slowdown is avoided somehow and tt would change the nature of everything we just discussed? >> anything's possible, but i don't know that we're going to have a roaring year next year. there are some catalysts, though, for potential strong economy. 're underestimating a huge elecon spend that could happen on the advertising side. we're looking at the infrastructure bill rolling out, the "inflation reduction act" with green energy projects.

theye getting shovel ready, money is coming out. that will support economic activity. technology is going to add efficiency. so you could paint a picturef optimism here. we don't think it's unbridled opmism in a straight runup. i think we chug forward. it's slow, choppy, and that could be a sweet spot. i don't ink we should get too dwreed grdy wanting too much growth, because then the fedtays in the game. >> i just w 4.22 on the ten-year. so dramatiresponse to powell and the data. markthanks for your time. >> good to be here. now take a look at shares of paramount, jumping more than 8% today on a possible streaming deal with apple. "the wall streetournal" reporting thentertainment giants are in talks about bundli their services. ishe bundle making a comeback? let's ask a senior analyst and julia boreston.

julia, what does this partnership look like? >> well, i'll tell you, i got a no comment from apple, as well as from paramount. but i would say that this would make a lot of sense. ideas that paramount plus would be bundled together with apple tv plus. there are positive and negative things that could create this partnership. both have higher than average turn, that's how frequently drop the service. both of those services have over 7% turn, whereas the average in october was 5.7%. so by bundling together, they could minimize reasons why people would think it would be okay to drop the service, because they're getting more from the service. on the positive end, paramount has seen a lot of upside from partnering with other companies. they partnered with walmart plus, with delta, international deals with sky, in the uk and europe. so they see the opportunity in bundling. so there could be a lot of

upside from these two services teaming up. >> you read this differently than the market, which is excited for pair mound and shrugging its shoulders for the apple. but do you see it the other way around? >> look, i do think we need to know what the terms are, so apple has tons of leverage. paramount has been contributing to subgrowth in the vorably abo economics. we'll see what they can negotiate with apple. i do think in the kind of bigger picture, you know, it's very clear to me that, over time, streaming needs to migrate towards these big tech platforms. i thought breakups and sales of libraries and sports assets is the way that's kind of hand. certainly, these partnerships, these synthetic bundlings may be a partial step. but it's not clear if apple is going in that direction that paramount would be the only participant.

>> i like your point. you said apple probably es well. thquestion is whether paramount well. so what is the price that they are ultimately getting? you say the first mediguy to sell out to a tech company will likely get the best deal. why do youhink that is? >> i do think that there's a bit of musical chairs. so if you think about the big media companies, if you think the world is transitioning in streaming toward the tech platforms, there's not necessarily a partner for every media company. so the last guy to move ght be in musical chairs land, left without a seat. so i think it's best to move, to see ere the future is going, and move in that direction. i think media companies have a hard time wrapping their minds around that. so we' stuck in this kind of interim period where people try to figure out the future. with hindsight, it's moving towards tech. >> i wonder if some of the rumors i hear have to do with nbc tying up with warner brotherswhich doesn't answ

whether theyould hthe si to compete with big ch or just a more attractive product. >> there's been a lot of speculation aboumedia consolidatn. this question of whether warner brothers, discovery, paramount or comcast might be involved in some m&a activity that could go in any number of ways. but given the regulatory environment, a number of people, including warner discoveries, have said bundling up services makes sense. they have the idea that people may be more inclined to hold on to that rather than turn out, because they're not getting enough from one particular serve. so i think a rebundling is inevitable. and peoplere subscribing to so many services. and you have to wonder what happens the smaller ones an how they get folded in to lster to value of others. >> i feel likeo the big tech companies, you know, just enjoy.

people hated on the cable companies for so many years. apple and google want to be the new face of that, knock yourselves out. and wouldn't that just give media companies deeper pkets to sell to? and what should we make of this despite disney? >> so i think that pelts and disney really is something where disney is doing pretty well right now. i don't know that felle -- phelps has a lot of attraction. so if disney has missteps, people see others step up and the pressure to break up will mount. you know, my belief is in the long-term that is what will happen. but for now, i think they're doing a good job pairing phelps. >> if they break up, where does disney's streaming content ultimately rest? >> i think the library, i think

espn, the sports, and i think disney plus would be a great tab on apple tv or amazon prime. it could be part of a google, you know, i think that's where things trend. i don't know that that happens today, tomorrow, it may take a while for people to wrap their minds around it. but there's so many advantages for structural promotion, favoring your own service in terms of the fees you have to pay internally. apple doesn't have to pay itself there's reasons why it trends in that direction economically. >> it's going to be an interesting year. they said that about 2023. we'll leave it for there. we'vgoa market flash on wendy's. dom chu with the story. what is's interesting about this, kelly, it has to do th according to reuters citin urces,hey say thatctivist

investor bckwellis pnnin to ninatboard members to ndy's board of directors. these the reason why wendy's shares have moved towards their session highs, up roughly 4%. the reason why it ties io this is because the single largest shareholder within wendy's is nelson pelts, with 16% stake. so this puts them at odds with another activist investor and is earlier over the last couple of weeks, with regarto disney, bl blackwells have come out with commentary in support of disney's ceo bob iger. so there is a ttle brewing. for now, it's about ndy's. we'll keep an eye on this. again, a reuters report citing sources. back over to you, kelly. >> dom, thank you very much. coming up, we're sticking

with fast food. setting the table for restaurant week with mcdonald's and domino's investor days on deck. what wall street is expecting and what these the could reveal about the strength othe consumer. >> >> if you don't like the cyber truck, find yourself a rivan. and as we head to break, here's a look at the major averages. the dow is a big outperformer thanks to salesforce, and if the nasdaq closes in the green, it wod make it a five-week winning streak. back after this. rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading.

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no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. welcome back to "the exchange." from firing met for call shots as x advertisers to shooting literal bullets at a cyber truck, it's been a big week for last night, in austin, it featured everything from a baseball lob to testing the car's bullet proof capabilities. while musk said it would be the launch of anythingn earth this year, the street didn't agree. shares were down% today. my next guest is bullish on

tesla, but warns the cyber truck joining us now for more is . george eat to see you again. welcome. >> nice to see you too. >> what were your reactions to the launchast night? >> look, the vehicle is sort of like the manehind it. it's polarizing, it's sort acquired tte, but hard to argue against its geni and performance. it's an awesome vehie, and the performance metrics were incredible. look, it beat a porsche 911 off the line, while actually carrying a porhe 911. the turning radius -- i haven't driven it, but i watched some reviewing this morning that are incredible. so it's just a car that will probably cnge the landscape of our roads. but i can tell you that i really

like it. leeann, who workon our team, doesn't like it. tina likes it, my wife hates it. i have two daughters, one likes it, the other esn't. it's like elon musk. some people really like him and some people dot really like him. but it's hard to argue it's an awesome car. >> don't we all agree, how did the future end up looking like a world of bland sedanor something? any way, putting all that aside, of course it will engend some who like it, some who hate it. why do youhink that rivan could be a beneficiary of the cyber truck launch? >> look, we're big believers in electrification. i know that we have had some bumps recently with companies like gm and ford pulling back on their plans. maybe the automarket generally has been a little weaker on the high end and evs for now are more expensive than traditional vehicles. but we think there's a revolution happening, very

similar to what happened with smartphones 10 to 15 years ago. and the companies that won those wars weren't the nokias of the world. those were the companies able to build new products from the ground up. that's tesla, and that's rivan. they have an incredibly compelling product they designed from the ground up. they have taken advantage of software that they have built at the vehicle control system level, all the way up. so an electric pickup, now you have an amazing cyber truck and amazing r1t. >> rivan is losing a significant amount of money for every vehicle they sell. what are the economics with the cyber truck? >> we don't know exactly yet. over time, we suspect it will also be gross chargmargin posit. with any new vehicle, they lose money in the beginning.

they already have the building in place and a lot of the infrastructure. over time, we're guessing it will reach profitability levels similar to what the other tesla vehicles have. >> do you find the range a little disappointing? >> yes. that's the one thing that was a little strange. they have something called a range extender, which is basically buying an extra battery that you can put in the back that you have to go back to the service center to put in place. so we'll see. maybe it's something very compelling. we just don't know enough about the detail. definitely a relative disappointment. >> what's your price target for tesla and rivan? >> for rivanit's $30, for tesla $267. >> shares are looking ound that level. george, thank you for your time today. >>hank you. still ahead, speaking of austin, where mu held his cyber truck launch, the city saw a flood of billionaires and

businesses move thing during the pandemic. but is thastill the case? jane wells wt down to texas to find out for us. >> reporter: hi, kelly. i'm in austin. we're hearing a lot about return 'lha tt orwh wel vehasty en we come back. olukai slippers are so comfortable, you won't want to take them off. and with that outdoor worthy sole, you don't have to. thencore energy,est america's clean energy company

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californians. but it might not be a lasting trend. jane is in austin. >> reporter: you have no state income taxes, you have a thriving scene, a cool, hip vooif. today, california weather. but could that change? more people are still moving from california to texas, but the gap is narrowing. two years ago, 105,000 californians moved east, while only 36,000 texans moved west. last year, 42,000 texans moved to california. red pin says for the first time it's seeing more people leave austin and arrive and home price have dipped a bit. some of this is thought to be return-to-office mandates for people who came to usa on the work remotely. but we don't know if this is a blip or beginning of a trend. >> if we look at any town that's boomed over decades, you'll see ups and downs in the economy. we are in a plateau spot right now, and i think that's just the

nature of growth. companies go through that. companiegrow, plateau, they might shrink a little, then they grow more. >> reporter: beyond texas, we are heing more return-to-office mentions on earnings reports and analyst reports. like lyft. a goldman report predicted 14% upside to shars, highlighting the company's focus on innovation and return-to-office. and sense that report, you can see how lyft shares have performed. >> so the companies that moved to texas have staid but the employees are the runs maybe being pulled back out? >> reporter: well, it's interesting you should mention that about the companies. you talk about elon musk and sla. yes, tesla has moved here, spacex. but the new engineering hub, ened this year back in california. the talent base.artly because of the talent pool that's still there, which hasn't completely

migrated here. what we dot know in the data, kelly, is ether the people coming from texas to california, how many of them are retnees, because of whatever ason. they missed it or they have to go back to t office. and how many may be texansoing there for new opportunities. th's not broken up. >> fascinating. i always think about when we ta about san francisco real estate values, at some poi will they get cheap enough that leases start to say hey, we should look to move back in. rern-to-work, many have said it's stalled out a little bit, that whatever percentagef the population we are at now, they don't thinit's going to climb much from here. >> reporter: well, i d't know about that. i mean, this is my office and i never left it. you know what i'm saying? i have a desk somewhere that i haven't seen since march 13th, 2020. but it is showing up with analysts. we have a couple quick examples. b of a is saying thait upgraded ea to a buy, but if you look at it, it may have trouble

with gamers' bgets as they go back to thoffice, because maybe they don't have as much money. goldman reports that clear thinks it can get $7 to $9 per worker, because it believes it has an identity platform that will work as people return to the office. again, this sounds like analysts are looking for trends. who knows? but i find that interesting to watch. >> yeah, absolutely. especially if the labor market weakens further. jane, for now, thank you very much. our roving correspondent now to tyler mathisen for a cnbc news update. tileer? >> thank you very much. the israeli military is taking w steps to minimize civilian deaths as resumes fighting in gaza after a temporary truce with ham fell apart. the f shared a map of the territory divided into zones it will help residents determine whether they need to move somewhere else for their safety. the military is alady urging residents inarts of southern gaza to evacuate.

an illinois appeals court denied actor jussie smollett's request to toss his conviction on his disorderly conduct. he was found guilty in 2021 for paying two men tstage a racist and homophobic attack on him in chicago. he was sentenced to 150 days in jail, but 's only served six days, as he waited a decision on his appeal. a rare book from jane austin's library is about go up for auction. a copy of "curiosities of literature" will fetch up to 50,000 in the bidding. e book features her signature on the title page as welas underlinings made by the legendary author. nice christmas present, kelly. >> i always felt like i shld be a bigger fan of hers. tyler, see you soon. thank you, tyler mathisen. coming up, is domino's the

next ai play? wall street is watching for its next tech innovation, and we might get some clues next week. details next with thstock come off its first positive month in three. stay with us.

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weome ba to "the exange." domino's and mcdonald's are holding investor days next week. 'll he the companies' outlook for 2024. my next guest says domino's will focus on lalty and th d mcdonald's on store growth and corporate structure. upside of 10% in both stocks.

brian harper is here. brian, good toee you. welcome. >> thanks, kelly, for ving me. >> i have some giant chicken nuggets overy shoulder, bu it's going tbe about mcdonald's and domino's next week. by the way, do you cover wendy's given what just happened there whether there might be an activist shakeup? >> we do cover wendy's. fundamentally, i think we've been a bit more cautious on wendy's relative to mcdonald's. i think when monald's is kind of squeeze some of the s competitorlike wemdndy's. i'm not sure how that whole activist situation shakes out. >> nor does anyone else. interesting that you said mcdonald's is performing quite well. what are the numbers that back that up and why is that? >> if you look at their same-store sales growth, as well as outside the u.s., it's been double digits recently. they had previously delivered positive traffic growth in the

early part of this year. i think what really is working for them is they have had an incredible marketing calendar. they have done a lot of collaborations, and not just one time. these have been successful repeatedly and very impressive how they performed coming out of the pandemic, really on a sales basis. we have been quite impressed. >> is it price, is it traffic? >> it's both. it's more pricing, that's starting to come down. for much of the year, they did have traffic growth. a lot of their peers were seeing traffic declines. so it has been the case that they have been taking share from >> i rand ybe the change far. have come through, that they have been trying to do a lot with their burger to make it more tasty. what do you think is driving this outperformance relative to the rest of the space. >> that better burger design is being rolled out globally. there's still more to come, so i think that's an attractive driver next year. people's standards are higher today, and mcdonald's is trying

to meet that, as well. so that's a multiyear driver that we are in the midst of rolling out. but they have done some impressive things, like the gri. >> if they can get it right and get gen-z of tiktok talking about it. are theynto influencers? >> the main issue for domino's has been that pizza was so heavily consumed in the paemic, everyone was delivering pizza. you had a couple of years where that's normalized and it's been tougher for domino's, as that wave has come off. so they're really trying to reverse thnarrative as you go into next year. they're trying to drive delivery sales growth, which delivery has been declining for last two years. so this analyst day next week will be how do we tackle that opportunity and get people to come back to deliv pizza.

>> domino's used to be masterful at using technology to kind of, honestly, drive performance d this halo effect around a technology company that delivers pizza. so is there an ai angle here that is legit, or is this going to be more about the nuts and bolts of the business? >> there is somewhat of an ai angle and other things going on here, as well. but i think to be candid, they probably lost some of their technology over the last few years. the reality is, other companies caught up and they are invested in their tech offering. so domino's is in a position where it's trying to reestablish that dominance, and that will take some time. for example, they have a partnership with microsoft to put some ai initiatives in place. this is still a pizza company at the end of the day, but how do you employ ai to improve sales? you can do that through, you know, the customer facing app to make it easier for customers to interact. on the back end, it's something that helps you operate stores

better. how do you use inventory management, labor management, you can help manage delivery orders. they already do some of that, but there's a lot more to do to make it easier to operate thes stores. you can deliver fasterll of those things could be good for them. >> i'm trying to think through those innovation milestones. the box itself, the way to keep the pizza shot, the pizza tracker. it will be interesting to see -- i don't know what they would come up with now that could really be so tech savvy. i don't know what that would look like. >> well, like i said, some of those back end things you're not going to see. you're starting to be able to order from a chat bot in a lot of restaurants or drive throughs that are fully automated. you'll see a lot more of that. we may mostly be orderg from rots at a lot of fast food restaurants. >> for better or maybe worse. finally, we mentioned about 10% applied for these names.

is there a space you're more bullish on? >> domino's is one we really liked. we've also liked yum brands, probably the most internationally diversified. i think china has been tougher. they're very exposed to china. but if you have a recovery next year, that should be good for that brand. taco bell is performing well in the u.s. and it's a very value oriented brand, so that sets up well in 2024, as well. so we like yum, as well. >> brian, thank you for your time. appreciate it. looking forward to restaurant week as we are calling it. coming up, this name could be included in the s&p rebalancing after the bell. what it could mean for shares after prices have already more than do you believed in the past year. if you think you know the mystery chart, send me your messages on x. "the exchange" will be right back. unlocking the power of thinkorswim,

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welcome back. the s&p 500 is set to balance is on thlist of names that r it'she largest u.s. company not in the index yet, and it was the mystery chart we just teased. edra, i guess we don't know for sure? >> we don't know for shoes, but there's been speculation for months and today could be the day. at the market close, the s&p is rebalancing, and uber is the largest by market cap, at $120 billion now. let's talk how it got here. uber had to beme profitable. i'm talking gap net income. uber has shown that its gap income profitality is actually sustainae. you have to show four quarters of that to be considered for

inclusion. so tt has happened. what does that mean going forward if uber gets included tonight? it means that apart om being an important milestone, that they can drotrot out there, it means they could be included in funds portfolios that track etfs or the s&p indecision, and it could mean more institutional investment from investors at want to create a fund that tracks the s&p. so kelly, it's such interesting story. you showed the mysry chart before the break. it's been sort of a long, slow trudge upwards. slow untilhis year. it shot up this year. uber went public at $45 in 2019. and it did a whole lot of nothing for a few years. this has been the year it's separated itself, especially from its now much, much, much smaller competitor, lyft. >> anything lyft can do at this point, i mean, sell itself? i don't know.

>> what is going to happen to lyft? they have a new ceo in there, who came in this year. you know, i hear different things. maybe it's just going to be a smaller, regional player and it's important that uber has a number two for things like regulation and to be seen as anti-monopoly. but could it be acquired by a company? that's always been a question surrounding lyft, as well. who would buy it? maybe a google or a gm or something that's building their own sort of robo taxi fleet. but even that, investors don't think it's that plausible. so maybe it trej trudges along. you can see where the separation happens. those stocks used to trade in lock step. not anymore. >> could be a banner week for can uber if they get the london black cab. we'll see. thank you. >> i'm so with you. >> that was a huge one can. it was a huge one.

>> i mean, it says everything you need to know about uber. its fiercest detractor is now their partner. >> exactly. a fitting end perhaps to that whole saga. thank u. still ead, cistmas just a little more than tee wee ay. wel gethe three naon our trader's wish list and the one she's not wanting in her stocking. that's next. a few years ago, i came to saona, they told me there's no electricity on the island. we always thought that whatever we did here would be an emblem of what small communities can achieve. trying to give a better life to people that don't have the means to do it.

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welcome back. take a look at the action in crude oil, which is now taking a leg loweafter the department of energy says it's speedingp the return of 4 million barrels of crude to the reserve. the doe wentn to say they could seek to buy up to 3 million more barrels for the february delivery. crude prices had been up on the session, but ty are now down almost 2% as people interpret this as a bearish development. we're just under $75 a barrel. it's time for three buys and a bail, and it's december, so that means unnecessary holiday

themes. chief market strategist gina sanchez is here to give us the three stocks she wants for christmas and the one lump of coal she wants to avoid. welcome. let's start with amazon. it's a strong november. they saw record-breaking sales over the black friday, might beer monda-- cyber monday. >> amazon has continued to put one foot in front of the other. there was concern that there might be a slowdown of aws sales, but that looked like it stabilized. it could be hitting an inflection point meaning that will continue to add to already growing advertising numbers, and like you said, that retail sales. amazon is the go-to when purses get tight, when households get tight. people are no longer going to walmart. they're going to amazon. i think this is probably going to go through the holidays. inue >> up 74% year-to-date thnext name not one woul expect to see on your list, adblocks, making up a ton of

lost ground. it up % off itlow om back in septembe they're expanding advertising and e-commerce. management says it's uniquely positioned to capitalize oai. why does this make your wish list? >> this is interesting, i agree this normally isn't one of my top picks because it's still not a profitable company. however, they are back to near their ipo price, and if you look at what they're doing in terms of expanding their offerings, they do look like one of the few companies that actually have a pretty strong outlook going into 2024, which is a time when a lot of companies are starting to guide down. so this is one that is 15 years in the making. it doesn't look like they're going to be profitable any time soon but it does look like they are making up quite a bit of lost ground. >> i think you just have holiday on the brain. the next mone, mattel, positive for the year. they're saying the toymaker has gained 60 basis points of market

share, amid the smash hit "barbie" movie. there's a hot wheels track comi down, apparently, so you want this for christmas. >> yeah, i want a cnbc barbie complete with a podcast. >> why d't we have one already? >> that is the question. overly conservative.hey were if you look at sort of the effect that "barbie" had on halloween, it was the go-to costume, i think it's going to be the go-to gift for the holidays. if there's oneegment, a population that you don't skimp on at christmastime, it's th children. and so i do ink that there is more than meets the eye here and i think they are being overly conservative. >>'m looking forward to that hot wheels movie, myself. let's move to your lump of cl. if you see etsy, you are ruing. down 34% so far this year.

still bullish on high margin international sas, but warn thenvironment remains highly promotiol. this one is one you want to avoid? >> i think i do, because if you look -- if your voices are etsy versus amazon, you just get more bang for your buck on amazon. and so while the company may have segments of high margin, it's just the outlook is nots good, the valuation on a comparative basis is n that od. etsy is trading 20 times forward earnings, amazon is trading 32 times forward earnings, but amazon is just a much bigger company and better valued for that 32 times. >> although the stock is up 7% on that earnings beat today. >> true, te. but this is justne that we're avoiding. >> and into 2024, do you want the s&p under the tree or no? you pick any asset in the universe. >> i think the challenge in 2024 that we thought at the beginning

of the year woulhit around this time has been pushed off to 2024. in fact , the retail outlook, i you think the '23 holiday season is going to be challenng, 2024 is expected to continuto be a slog. i think at we are probably going to continue -- and the other thing is that the fed just came outoday basically saying don't expect us to ease any me soon, and if that's the case, then that higher more long trade isn't a great outlook for 2024. i think you end up just sort of bumping along, 2024 could be sort of a loss year for the s&p. >> thank you so much for joining us today. we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> ginsanchez with lido advisers. > that does it for "the exchange." next on "power lunch," from the dollar store yesterday to designers today. our last installment in econ ecosystems looks at luxury retaers and what the message has been laty.

tyler is getting ready. i'll jn him on the other side of the break.

hi, everyone. good friday afternoon. welcomto "power lunch," alongside kelly evans, i'm tyler mathisen. coming up, pfizer's effort to join the weight lo parade faces a jor setback. patien quittinthe trial after experienng unpleasant si effects. we'll have the reaction the. the retail ecosystem wita lo on at luxury stocks. yestery we talked about the struggling dollastore, so is the high-end consumer still buying or spending that money elsewhere, on experiences instead of stuff? >>first, let's get a check on the markets. wetart decber th green arrows e dow hitting a w 52-wk high tod. just a couple hundred points from itsll-time high. speaking of all-timeighs, check out gocracking above