tv Closing Bell CNBC December 1, 2023 3:00pm-4:00pm EST
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they require students to take at least one semester of personal finance. and four stes had an fwith no requirements, california, connecticut, massachusetts and washington, d.c., got an f. my home state of virginia got an "a". >> cnbc will teach you. >> great to have you with us as always. >> thank you for watching "power lunch," everybody. >> "closing bell" starts right now. guys thanks so much. i'm scott wapner, live here at the new york stock exchange on this friday, make or break hour begins, with what else, the rally and whether a new month will bring more of the same for your money. we'll ask our experts, over this final stretch. here's your score card with 60 minutes to go in regulation, december really beginning, as november went out of the stocks in the green, nearly every s&p sector is in positive territory, and industrials and materials, both up nicely, but there you can see, it is pretty broad-based, mega caps always check on them. they're a bit mixed today, and apple, amazon and nvidia, up, meta, alphabet, down.
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yields, well, they're falling even further today, bonds just scored their best month nce e 1980s. look at the 10-yea 422. that takes us to our talk of the tape. aftethe best month for stocks in nearly a year and a half. a move that's been as broad-sed as we've seen in a long time. is there enough now reasons to come more bullish. adam parker, a cnbc contributor, as you c see here, welcome back. >> thanks. >> the question of the moment. is it time to get a little more positive than people have been? >> well, i don't know what people are doing. clear, we were going to have a rally, we wrote about it, i think november 1st, right? that in years, t market saw 10% more the first ten month of the year, a very high hit rate that ppens for the last two months. y? because people were positioned for it and they chased the performance itself. people i talked to wer wondering, you know, when they need to start sort of twisting
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for something that could change in january. and in this past year, we saw a huge reversal in nvidia, in meta, in tesla, and after they got killed in '22, they have been monster good stocks in '23. so i think people tryingo figure out when do they fade, and get more negative. i don't sense people i talk to, think i'm going to get incrementally bullish now, at least the conversations i've been having. >> why not? i think they do a lot with the price and i think people are worried about maybe a rotation in january, february, so i don't think people are thinking oh, we have a great year end and we have a great january, and it is just everything is there. >> because look, it is really, this last month has thrown cold water all over the idea that oh, it's not broad-based enough. >> banks have been great. >> i'm looking at the russell, up 11% over the last month. all of these sectors have done quite well. >> yes. >> except energy. >> yes. >> the laggard. >> energy had, i checked this
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today, at least in the last 25 years that i checked, we haven't seen a month where the s&p was up 7.5% or more, and energy was down. this is like the worst month for energy, with a big uptick in a long time. i'm confused by that. it feels to me like demand, recession, is the energy sector, but demand recession is nowhere else in the market. that seems incon grewgruous to me. and i like energy as a great risk/reward situatn. >> that is a great word. >> if i say, you know, like nick brights in the journal today, fed interest rate hikes are probably over, officials are reluctant to say so. we don't expect them to say so anyway, but why is it the t time to get incrementally more bullish here, if you think that rate hikes are over, and you
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think rate cuts are coming, and they're coming for the right reasons, not the wrong ones. the right ones being that inflation continues to trend down. >> lk, you know we were pretty much bullish this year, starting off the year, and the best scenario is the consensus is negative, you're a contrarian bull and you're right. this is a dream scenario. as you look at the large firms again this year, i don't see them havinupsides in yr-end 2024, where we are now. i think most people, 4200, 4500, 46, i don't see a lot of upsides. there is a chance you could be a contrarian bull and be right again in 2024. >> there are a lot of targets that are like 5,000. 100. some are as high as a 500. >> i haven't seen, you know, i'm not on that side. i haven't seen any that high. i do think that the goldilocks scenario continuing would be, they don't cut, and earnings are okay. i don't think, if they're going to start really cutting, i think you'll see a more negative impact on earnings first, and therefore, a bit of a re-set
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before that happens. so i'm not of the mind set right now, where i would today say it bullish through the downward revisions and negativity tha then the prerequisite for the cut. i think there could be a bit of a sharp hiccup before. that i'm not train's left of station, get on board. the nasdaq sup 35 this year. we're up big numbers already. i wouldn't say this is the time i get incrementally buish. i think you're correctly bullish all along, you're trying to be prudent about it going >> you had to be bullish in the right places for the better part of the year, awe obviously know. >> yes. >> is it time to get more incrementally bullish with the places that didn't work as well because we think they will work better, value stocks, more cyclicals and didn't work like mega cap tech thing did and take thisast month of a run out of that yes, you know what i mean, in the broader sen, is it time to get more bullish there? >> i could see people selling some of em and going into those parts of the market.
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i think it could be energy. it could be health care, which has lagged. materially. and people think it doesn't work in an election year. it could be some of the staples. we have seen a bit of a cah-up on some of the stuff. we have talked about. so stuff that i thought was oversold here, and we sabrown foreman and coke and some of those names catching up a little after selling off. i think there could be a rotation isome of those lack ards. but what happened this month, one of the highest correlations we've seen in bondand stocks in 15 and 20 years, and everything has worked rally and i highly doubt that will continue all the way through next year. >> why does to have to be a rotation from the winners like mega caps to the loser area, losers of the year. why can't it be a rotation if yields continue to collapse and a rotation from cash, money marks, into equities. and bonds for that matter which by the way i said had the best month since -- >> it could very well be but i don't think it will be in the banks that have an uptake, because they don't really make any more money in the core part
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of their business if interest rates continue to fall. so there is a bit of a, you know, disconnect there. i didn't want to sane incongruous twice. >> then i would have said you're showing off. >> i think there is a disconnect between the best interest rate environment for banks, too cheap for where we are, but now i'm looking at it thinking maybe that is not the place for the rotation next year. >> banks. >> yes. i would rather do energy. i would rather do health care. >> why health care? >> because everyone hates it. the estimates are very achievable. they have pretty good pricing power. and i think their valuations are pretty compelling. so the combination of the chance up for beingevisions and value throws, and it makes it better risk/reward for the sectors today. >> and let's bring in stephane, hightower to join the conversation. i hope you heard what adam said. now is not the time to get incrementally more bullish. i feel like you actually. have how d-actually.
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have so how do you feel about his view of the market? >> i think it is time to get more bullish. i was pretty bullishn the middle of the the october and expecting a year-end rally and we obviously had a great i'm very encouraged about the broadening of the market which is what you guys have been talking about. so year to date, the equal weight s&p has underperformed the s&p by 15%. in november, that kind of reversed. started to reverse. the equal weight actually outperformed by almost 100 basis points, to the s&p market cap weight. so i think that'encouraging. and it does speak to the brdening, and the reason i'm more bullish, is yes, all the things you talked about, in terms of inflation has peaked, early, and the interest rate the environment has peaked clearly, whether the fed eases or not, inhe first quarter, we just don't know. and day, we're all data dependent but it looks like they will go sometime in the first that's positive.. and the economy is holding up. the atlanta fed, gdp tracker is
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1.5% to 2%, is good for top line, its good enough for top line, for earnings for next year and on the margin side, we're seeing obviously i just mentioned all of these tngs. inflation is down d rates are down. that helps corporate margins and then operating leverage as a result. i would simply pnt out how cheap the 493 in the s name, the non-megas at 14 times forward, compared to0 times, for the overall s&p. there value to be had. and in november, the value and the pe, the places where people saw value was real estate, financials, discretionary and industrial and you know i've been in pretty much all of the areas. not so much real estate. but i do think that are -- there are sides to those estimates and i think that's why people are starting to chase it. >> i thi the word incremental is what i was reacti to. if you've been correctly bullish and participated in the maet this year, i think the word incremental is maybe whe i depart, i think you can be optimistichat the risk/reward
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could be decent next year. it can be a bit of a contrarian bull in certain parts of the market. >> that's the word i want to pickn. >> what? is it more prudent to be -- i bear, maybe. a contrarian why do you have to be contrarian -- >> i don't think the consensus -- >> why do you have to be a contrarian to be bull. steph told you all of the reasons to be a bull. >> i think she is more bullish than the consensus person i talk to right now. i don't know, steff, if you agree with that but i think she is. i don't think everyone is thinking wow, we will have a big 10, 15% off year, i think most people are thinking this year is a surprise. and maybe some people agree with what i said, if we're going to get the fed cutting, it will come after a bit more damage to the earnings and the economy than is in the price. i think that might be more consensus of what i'm saying than what stephane is saying but
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if she is right, she will continue to do well. >> it all depends, too, like the broadening that you mentioned, which is one of the reasons why you have brone more bullish, has to be sustainable, now it remains to be seen if it will be. >> well, we'll see. ok, i'm not looking for a 10 to 15% in the p. i'm actually looking for much more in me of these contrarian sectors, these unloved sectors where no one is in and everybody is in the mag seven, you know i'm even in some of the mag seven, you couldn't afford not to be. but i think there is so much upsiden these other sectors and it is not going to take much to get them to move higher. does that move the overall market, scott? i don't know. i think if you have a lot of sectors participating, it is a good st, you will be outmi single digits. i'll take mid single digits but if t other sectors go up double or triple whathe
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overall market does, i will be pretty happy. >> is this right, up almost 2.5% for the day on the russell 2000? >> i think so. >> and i read one note, calling it a value trap. i don't know if steph is looking at those names. >> but if the look on the economy is correct, th small ca would do well, some say there is value there but it is a trap. what do you think? >> for steph to be right, and i think there is a decent probability she is, so i'm not -- you know, one of my biggest weaknessesis someone is saying something i disagree with, i can't hide it on my face. stephane and i know each other for a long time. and we know each other. you need to have margin expansion. we can get a position rally on the rates going lower, the small caps going up, because there's less financial worries for some
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of these smaller businesses, cost of capital, there are real reasons they should have this initial phase of the risk-on trade. for instance, for a year or six months or a sustained period, i will believe that margins are going up more than everything else. that could happen, but it is going to require better pricing, or better mix, on the revenue side and require better wage environment, better input costs and commodities, lower depreciation, that part, i personally think is a little tougher right now. and i think this rally in small caps is about interest rates. and fewer of them were having financial troubles as they go to refinance. the biggest companies don't have financial problems. apple has $5 trillion in cash? i'm kidding. they don't have issuing. >> they almost do. >> they're going there for those reasons, right? balance sheet security in many respects. >> the highestorrelation between bonds and equities in a long time, or among the highest is, because these companies no longer have as much financial risk. for her to be right, you need to
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have yields come lower, you need to have margins exnd, and i'm probably thinking that is a 40% -- for me, it is like a se case, but it certainly not unreasonable. >> steph, did i bridge that okay, stepha? >> you know, i undstand what you're saying, but you have gasoline prices that are down 15% from their highs, and you have rents that are starting to roll over, you have companies in the u.s. that are masters at cutting costs, if they need to, and i think that they will contue to reorganize, restructure, it is just what they do, and then you have pricing power, companies have had pricing power for the last year and a half, maybe it is not going to be as strong in 2024, but i don't think they're going to be so quick to pull back on pricing, especially if the demand side doesn't fa off a cliff. which i don't think it will. because i think the economy is going to hang in there. so it really depends on what you're thinking about for the overall economy. in terms of small caps, scott, i'm not involved in small caps. i don't think the transparency is there.
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i think they're very volatile in general. there is limited sell side, analyst coverage, so you don't get a lot of infortion and a lot of ways to analyze, but i do think the same factor of small caps is valu and the russell 1,000 value, right today, is trading at 13 times forward, the rusll 1,000 growth is at 24 times. i think there isetter risk/reward in value, versus growth, but you know, i do hav some growth ames, it is not all value. i'm core by definition. >> on that note, i see that this is right, you trimmed meta? that's kind of surprising to me. >> yes. >> again, because you've been -- i mean you trimmedt all for, i don't know, the last eight months, i think, you bought alphabet again but why are you trimming meta? >> because i'm up a lot. i mean it isp 170% year to date. it has had multiple re-ratings from 13 times, to 23 times, i think the story is still great, i still own a bunch of it, but i didn't he cash to buy a new
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position that i wanted to buy, and so i trimmed a little bit meta. never hurts to take a bit of profit. and i still own some of the other maga seven but i feel like i bought sherwin williams and i like that risk/reward way better, especiallyf rating continue to come down, i want to have housing exposure in 2024. >> adam, we said kind inform passing, that one of the reasons people have gravitated towards these names is because they have these balance sheets that feel like, if not fortress, darn close. >> right. >> one of the notes out today was from cevita subramanian at bank of america, one of the reasons to be bullish, is because corporates have already gone through theirarnings recession, and they've cut costs, so you know, their balance sheets are going to look a lot better, moving forward. how would u address that? >> for the s&p 500, you know, bankruptcies are very unusual.
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a lot of the businesses have improved their balance sheets and trimmed out their debt. i think the issue is different you get smaller and that's why thsmall caps are cheaper a lot of small cap universe is banks, right? it is different constitution a lot of small caps are profitless biotechs. soou got to apple to apple that stuffhen you compare it. nominal gdp declines some, that these companies will have, you know, the ability to cut out a ton of cts and add margin expansion a ton. >> i think part of her point is they have already gone through the exercise. in anticipation of something that may not come to peru ition to the degree that they have already planned for. >> yes, i think there could be some examples of that. where i guess i, the tension is, the investment controversy, is we had the highest nominal gdp in our lifetime, 18 months ago, when you have a high nominal gdp, you produce your stuff in your factories and industrials, et cetera, and it is beautiful for your margistructure, all
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your fixed costs get spread across all of these things you're producing, as the nominal gdp has slowed, it is harderor your utilization in the factory and harder to have the same pricing power. i think companies do have pricing power. i agree with stephane. coke has pricing power. unitedealth. the big guys do. and i think that is where she is trafficking more, as she said. and i don't think these smaller oneso, and have the ability for the costs and i think the costs will be a little bit me under pressure in 2024 for some businesses than '23 and i don't think the small companiecan fire all the same people and cut wages anthe like. it is not that easy. >> stephane, i will spin toward next week and only because adam used to be a semiconductor analyst and i know you have broadc which reports next week, it is going to bone of those moments as we look at ai d whergrowth igoing go d all of the focus on nvidia, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, what's your outlook for that next week? >> i mean i think it's going to be fine. i think it will be good. they've got a great track record
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of executing, beating and raising. and i think what i like about broad come really is the diversification. it is not just ai, although that is certainly a big piece of their growth, but it is cloud, and it is networking and it is apple exposure, but i think more importantly, next week, we're going to hear more about the synergies from vmware, and the amount in recurring revenue, and that is good visibility and a multiple enhancing event. i also think they have a good track record of increasing their dividend in the fourth quarter each year. so i expect that to increase dividends, to increase buybacks. they have about 7.6 billion left in their buyback program, i think they are going to lift that, too. so the only thing is, the stock always trades badly on the earnings report, for whatever reason, and if it does, i will buy more. >> last comment to you. >> i don't disagree with her comments there. i think we're probably more
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aligned on that than earlier parts of the conversation. >> and you didn't disagree that march. >> i think buybacks are trickier, because companies don't do a good job of it and we give advice to corporates about buybacks and m&as and all of that stuff, and in general, companies buy the stock when it is high and they don't buy it when it is low so most of them destroy value doing it. but we'll see. but i don't disagree with the broader comments about the business model and diversification being a positive. >> guys, that was fun. i appreciate it very much. you, a good weekend to you both. top stocks to watch as we head into the close. kristina partsinevelos has more. >> jpmorn analysts don't like bio n tech. and telling investors to sell the company as it continues to face challenges with weakening covid vaccine campaign and advances in the oncology peline. down 34% on the year. shoppers just don'want to give up their perfumes and skin care
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routines. as third quaer sales rose for ulta beauty. the beauty retailer even raised the full year sales and earnings guidance, given the seasons, quote, off to a good start for both value as well as quote splurge worthy items. ulta shares are up nearly 11% right now. scott? >> all right, see you in a bit. kristina partsinevelos. we are just getting started here on "closing bell." stks seeing gains to start the month. up next the ceo of janus henderson, shows us where he seeds the rally and the three main drivers that cod shape asset management for the next decade. you're watchin"closing bell" on cnbc.
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we're back. off to a strong start in december. all of the major averages are in the green. there you see it, there. take a look at the russell leading the way up nearly 2.5%. the dow with a 52-week high. joins us is janus henderson investor increase ali dibadj, ringing the closing bell today in honor of the etf suite reaching 11 billion dollars in assets under management. congratulations. welcome. >> thanks. >> so these are mostly fixed income? >> correct. >> etfs that we're talking about. >> yes. >> give me the outlook what you see ahead for fixed income in 2024. >> look, i think it is time for it to come down, which most people tend to think about in the course of 2024 and that typically means the economy slowed a bit and what that means you have to stick to higher quality and longer duration and
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the fixed income side, and on the equity side, to parse out what is a good company versus a bad company, rates will come down a little bit, they probably won't go to zero, scott, so it will play out, because there is cost of capital that will not be zero going forward. >> what if rates are just gettinback to, i hate tose normal because they were so abnormal for so many years but not so elevated to where they have been, what it is not a sign that the economy is slowing and mere a sircht mes that the inflation is not what it was. >> a great time for people to who are stock pickers like us, security pickers like us, it is a time for people who are real investors and janus henderson, real investors with the underlying investments. >> real, because you're active, because thee are active managed? >> kwle. >> yes. >> etfs. >>es. >> we have aaa clos over the 5
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billion dollars ma. the suite of them which are j-aaa, we have clo, a bbb-clo, as well as securitized income clo, all of those together are now making us number four on the le table in a short period of time. whate have done, scott, what the essence of janus henderson is, as investors, we bring differentiated insooil sights and disciplined investments that we would bng to an industrial institutiol client and bringing that to retail and that is allowing us to democratize a whole world of investors that has been unattainable by the numerous folks out there who can manage it. >> because what would you say, markets for the year?ew of the >> i actually think that the pivot point will obviously be the consumer. what does the consumer do in the next little while at these rates? so far it seems pretty healthy. could it be a little bit of a slowdown? my guess is it could be. i don't know you're seeing a really tough time over the next little while. i feel a little more comfortable
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where we're at. >> are you expecting a recession or not? >> do you think rate cuts are going to happen in 024. how do you do that? >> it all comes to play in how we think about the products you of offer. >> it does but the good thing we offer products for all seasons. and cost of capital, there is a cost of capital. exactly to your point, the last 10 or 12 years there was not cost of capital. and buying a good company or a bad company, they don't give you al facility separating a good company and bad company, that is alpha and that's what we do, we separate them out. just buying passive is not going to solve the boat. the rising tide lifts all boats. you have to sit there and separate them out. the world will be much more difficult. there is no question, because the cost of capital is higher, there doesn't mean that there is not opportunity. and that's what janus henderson does. >> congratulations on your
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milestone and enjoy the ceremony. >> thanks. >> ali dibadj, the ceo of janus henderson investors. up next, we're charting out december. top technician,on cran krinsky is here with us, and why he is betting on the market losers as we kick off a new month. after the break. losing bell" right back. with non-melanoma skin cancer. 40 years later, i've had almost 20 mohs surgeries. i had just accepted that the pain and the scars wereoing to be part of my life. but when i was diagnosed with two basal cells on my face, i became determined to find an alternative to surgery. if you, like millions of others, are affected by skin cancer... it's important to know that surgery isn't the only option. there's another choice. gentlecure. it sounded like everything i had been looking for. gentlecure uses low energy x-rays to kill skin cancer cells with a 99% cure rate.
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stocks rallying to kick off the new month of trading. our next guest says it is time to bet on the market losers as we head into the new year. jonathan krinsky, welcome back. you think the broadening out has legs? >> well, scott, we were talking about the rotation two weeks ago, that thought was going to happen, cap tech and small caps. it has been subtle so far. over the last two weeks, i think small caps are about 3%. mega cap techs, you know, flattish. maybe up half a percenor so. and you're starting to seehat broaden out.
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so regional banks up 5% today. the reits, you know, just the absolute worst days ofhe market are starting to outperform and in some cases starting to break out of a small term basis or mediumerm basis. i think it is a double edge sword. on the one hand, it is nice to e it broaden out and we want to participate in some of the areas that are playing catch-up to the other side. on the other hand, we are starting to e some of the optimism come back as represented, you know, in the meme stocks or having the biggest rally since january, and some of the re speculative stocks are starting to reay go to the outside. so it is gooon one hand. but we're also, you know, medium term, you know, also seeing that as a bit of a yellow flag as well. >> yes, but i mean i know you're referring to things like the arc innovation fund which i believe had its st month ever which really isn't a surprise, given the dramatic move that we had in interest rates, and as iaid
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earlier, bonds just had their best month, since the '80s, as rates have collapsed over the last 30, you know, day period. do you think the broadening, though, in the areas that you mentioned is sustainable? because that's going to really answer the question of the durability in some respects of this market. not just over the next four weeks. >> you know, i think also the reason i don't think it is sustainable, if you look at even the data today, you know, slowing in the ism, right, so i think right now, the market is in that, a lot of people use the goldilocks period, in between when the fed is done raising but hasn't yet cut and we think the speculative part of the rally continues for a bit. this into next year, i think that is where you will start to see the bad news becomes bad news. and ultimately that's going to be an issue for, you know, most stocks probably. but i think right now it is all about the rotation.
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we're seeing a stalling in many bank stocks, and i think that has been more of the scale on that side, but to your point, ultimately, it is seeing the absolute worst, the jump, if you will, the rally, it is nice if you can participate, but ultimately it is probably not the best time. >> are you negative on the market for next year? >> you know, yeah, i think if you think about wherthe data is going, and ultimately what thateans for stocks, once we get past this goldilocks period, i think it will be a head wind. again, you're also seeing the crowdedness, where if you look at institutional, and retail side of things, that you know, the top seven names are in some case historic highs, multi-year highs relative to the portfolio. and so, you know, that's another head wind for next year. but you know, we're taking it one step at a time. i think right w, our conviction is that you want to stick with the trades, and
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regardless of the direction, small caps over lae for the foreseeable future and see how that transforms into '24. you look at where the data is going, those were your words, people who are bullish would say i am lookinghere the data is going and the datalooks just fine. >> well, whahappened today with ism? >> well, it's like o report. but i mean there are other reports that have certainly pointed to an economy that's performing just fine in the same sense that inflation continues to come down. nothing is screaming economy slamming on the brakes by any stretch. i know you would agree with that. >> yeah, no, for sure. i think that's why you're seeing the risk valley right now, right? the whole rally that stood up in november was, you know, predicated on some weaker data and therefore the fed might be closer to being done, right? so that's why you get these goldilocks rallies. and look, you know, the soft
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landing, you can't be disproved at this point, which is why you're seeing now some of the riskiest parts of the market start to rally. so again, it is one of those careful what you wish for moments and like you said, a double edged sword, we also have, you know, from the sentiment side of things, you look at something like the bears 2018, put/call ratios are back to where we've seen them this year. and people are on board and that can persist for a while but ulmately as we get into next year, i think that will be a head wind. >> what is the vix at 12.6 do to you? >> the vix typically on a seasonal pattern tends to bottom in late november, and we actually do see a bit of a rise in volatility into december, so we thi we will get that. again, once we get throu this kind of rotationary period. the vix is also, it is funny, it neither inverting or it's not. fomost of this year 13 vix is the place to sell stocks, and you can go back to 2017, when
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the vix was routinelbelow 13, so you know, it is kind of one of tse situations you can view it either way. with volatility, it ultimately will rise next year. but for all of the reasons simply that the vix is -- >> good weekend. thanks for being o seyou soon. >>next, we're tracking the this friday close. hd into kristina partsinevelos is standing by with that. >> diarrhea and upset stomachs, not all weight loss drugs have the magical touch. after the break, i will reveal the company hind the failed clinical trial and of course, much more.
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in the session on this friday. let's get back to kristina partsinevelos now with a look at the stocks she's watching. >> upset stomach, diarrhea it sounds like a pepto bismol commercial but the common sips for a pfizer experimental weight loss pill in a mid stage clinical trial. more than 50% of people taking the full dose tropd out of the trial because of gastrointestinal issues. pfizer will not advance the particular trial but it plans to release data on a once a day version of the drug in the first half of 2024 and that's why shares are down 5%. shares of software firm
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samsara are surging, up 25%, after the company not only beat earnings expectation force the quarter but also posted higher guidance. on the earnings call, the ceo said the company saw strong momentum with larger accounts, and posted a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate for the first time ever. shares are at 25%. and speaking of the ceo, sanjit biswas will be on "closing bell" in just a bit. scott? >> thank you. good weekend to you. kristina partsinevelos. up next, is the ipo market heating up? it looks like one fast casual chain could be headed for a big market debut. we will give you the details after this break. the "closing bell" will be right back. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, unlocking the power of thinkorswim, the award-winning trading platforms. bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical studies.
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welcome back. panera confidentially filing to go public again. leslie has the details. >> i spoke with a source familiar withal deal, they confirmed that panera filed confidentially for an ipo, and confirms earlier reporting today, and insinuating the debut no sooner than the first quarter of next year, and marks the latest in a string of companies dipping their toes into an ipo process. the appetite for new issues has been mixed with few exceptions. one is another fast casual company, cava, up 66%, since its june debut. jab and bdt capital took panera private in 2017 in a 7.2 billion dollars buyout. they attempted a listing via a spac a couple of years ago but ultimately pulled it due to market conditions. so a confidential filing, a
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traditional ipo, it appears to be the sponsor's latest attempt for an it in the environme with present-up demand on the sell side and trepidation on the buy side. that could change quickly. >> i was going to say that exact same thing, depending what the market conditions look like as you turn the calendar. leslie picker, thank you. paramount popping. the stop up nearly 10%. we will tell you why apple is driving the name higher and what it could mean for the rest of the media space. now to much more when we take yoindeheart neu si t mkezo.
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we're now in the "closing bell" market zone. cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the day. and phil lebeau has the november sales day tay for automakers out. and julia boorstin how paramount shares are higher. mike, you came on the air at 3:00 and yields continued to move lower and not a surprise, stocks are at the highs of the session here. >> it is getting a little bit extended on the yield side, in terms of the magnitude and the speed of the moves but it is also reinforcing. there is a little bit of indication of some surrender out there. i mean if you look at the 2.5% pop, or better, in the russell 2000, and you can see all of laggard groups, it looks like forced rotation. people are basically running out of reasons to fight this idea. and i think a point to keep in mind, if you came in to this year or let's say six months ago, and you said i'm going to hang in there, the fed is just
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about done, and you know, inflation is on the way down, and it should be supportive, and earnings will turn for the better, you have been right, but along the way, you have overshot. so i'm not saying we have overshot yet in terms of the upside. this rotation certainly has more to go. just to close the gaps in performance that we've seen all year. but it is getting to that point where people are believing again. and you need that for a sustainable uptrend. and you know, sometis you get something that comes along. >> sustainable, i was going to k you about the sustainability of the broadening of the market and that is a big tell as well. >> it absolutelywill. the makings are there for it. as you c see. and especially if the economy hangs in there. and if we don't ve to get the fed rate cut exactly on schedule as the market is projecting but if it seems we're on track for that, probably wcould keep that in balance. i was looking back near the july highs and looking at everybody at the cnbc headlines saying the broadening trade is under way. so i think you have the makings of it. i also amindful of the fact that we have had near images,
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2022, was the exact opposite in 2021 in terms of what worked and the direction we went and this year is the exact opposite of 2022, which is a mirror ime, so if we get it this year, it is a broadening year and the headlining maybe needs a lot more stocks toork. so i guess i will put that out therand say the financial conditions staying easy mean week should have that broadening. on the other hand, so many people want it. how many people come here and say, don't do anything, love the cyclicals and really likthe market around the equal weighted s&p. maybe pele have been wrong enough that we can have that. >> there was a time when this market would have taken the comments from the fed chair today asawkish, and it just also saks to where we are, where as they were brushed aside of an initial, hmm, what did he say? and now we're right back to what looks like that narrative. >> and i think it is because the inflion numbers have been that
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friendly for this long. and we can somewhat handicap where they're headed from here, based on on the known variables that go into. it i thinkhat is the bottom line all along. if the inflation is going in the right direction, the fed is not going to try to tighten just for its own sake just people start having fun if inflation is doing what it is supposed to to do. >> automakers ve been in the news more lately, m speaking more really of general motors. not so much for eir sales but for their buying of their own stock. >> right. and when you look at the november sales, scott, whahave we been saying for months now? hybrids are hot. i bring that up because when we get monthly sales numbers, we only get them from the feign automakers in this country, these are the top three automakers, toyota definitely leading the way, in terms of hybrid sales, and at's flected in november. by the way, all of these companies reported big pops in hybrid, and electric vehicle sales. so that demand is. there and that's reflected in
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the stocks as you take a look at the stocks. by the way, they are at the current, the way sales are going right now, we're on pace for the best year since 2019, about 15 million in annual sales, that is the expeed sales date, by the way, scott, we get ford's numbers on monday and i haven't been told but i know fro talking with ford dealers this week, hybrids are on demand, a time for a big hybrid number, too. >> pl, thanks. good weekend to you as well. zb julia, paramount popping and a lot of that has to do with apple? >> that's right. paramount shares up more than 9% on a report that the media giant has been talking with apple about bundling their streaming services. now, no comment from either company. but this would make sense given paramount's track record with partnerships, including with walmart plus, delta, and international and sky and u.k. germany, and also in france. paramount and apple tv plus are working together right now.
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doing the theatrical distribution of apple's pillars of the flower moon movie. and the ceo saying the power of partnerships is also a meaningful contributor to our momentum. now, there is anegative factor that could be in play as well. apple tv plus and paramount plus both have more than 7% churn. that's ahead of industry average of 5.7%. scott, this could be the way. to team up together, to reduce turn. >> we will keep an eye on those stocks. thank you very much. and back to mike santoli, talking about apple, 191 and change. we will see what that does in the weeks ahead. determined in some respects if there is a rotation out of mega caps and keeps this broadening going. >> it is interesting that microsoft has cheaply added to the source of funds for this rotation into the lesser-performing names, over the past week, apple kind of doing its own thing, hanging in there a little better, microsoft, though, just was such
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a consensus, everybody had to own it and as i was saying earlier this week, on some level these are the defensive stocks in the market. do they hold up when people are feeling more relaxed and risk appetites are rising and people are okay and there is less to worry about that, is the question. apple hanging in there. we're talking about two stocks that are together, 14.5 or so percent of the s&p 500. tough for the market overall to do anything if they don't hang tough. but i really have been keeping much more of an eye on microsoft in that equation, just because it seems like it is the one must-own stock and everyone acknowledges the fundamental story, and willing to pay up for it, and maybe that's now migrating money into the other software. >> and speaking of money migrating, is it too early, do migrating out of money markets and intotocks? >> i don't think so early. you w a decent inflow into growth stocks in pticular. it is not necessarily all coming out of character. least retail money market funds. i think ere is a little bit of something structural about it. whe it is a replacing bank
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desits as we've been talking about, regional banks, y know, kind of disgorging all of that deposit fl. and it probably takes time. new highs. even back in the 2010s, when the mantra was there is no alternative, if it is really only one year, and013, when we got to an all-time high, they really saw a heavy inflow in rotation in bonds and cash and equities and after that, it was just like steady as she goes, and really wn't a binge of buying. so i think we're well-supported in the sense that retail is not over its skis, i don't think there is a lotf excess that we immediately have to wring out, less you want to talk about microsoft, you know, trading for 40 times cash flow. but right now, i don't think, you don't necessary need, you know, people to really hde their cash holdings and throw it into the s&p. >> what do you think about ark off the innovation fund and the best month ever? >> pure reflection of the unlove, people lking for something that looks like it hasn't participated, rates coming down, you kno it really
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tracks all of the retail stocks through the retail ownership, high ownership stocks and short squeeze stocks. look at that. 37%. >> yes. >> bell ringing ]. on everyone.he right perspective thank you. see you on thether side. high scores wall street. welcome to overtime. i'm john fortt at cnbc headquarters. >> and i'm morgan brennan in mi valley california, on a day when the defense has a record great guests for you this hour including the ceo oflobal foundries and the cto of p palantir up more than 200% this year. a big week for cloud
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