of the brand, as well. lulu has been pretty been prett teflon. we'll see if that continues, too. >> about times, piece of the pie. all of the things are coming together with the obesity drugs and the retail. >> that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the naz tack market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." h here's what's on tap tonight. too far too fast? the promise of a.i. sending the stocks in the biggest chip and cloud names into orbit this year, but have they overrun the hype? should investors be ready for them to come back to earth? plus, bitcoin bonanza. 42,000 today. our bitcoin baller bk will be in the house to tell us if this year's revival will keep going. plus, the impact of job cuts at spotify and the rest of the media landscape.

i'm melissa lee, coming you to at studio b from the nasdaq. we start off with the cover that may have just signaled the top to this year's a.i. boom. baron's lsaying nvidia is still undervalued. that even as shares have more than tripled this year, but since hitting an all-time high just two weeks ago, shares have pulled back 10%, and just today, nvidia fell more than 2.5%. alphabet, microsoft, the other big players in the a.i. race seeing bigger losses in the broader markets. so, is this the latest hot trend to suffer the cover story curse? will spending in the space justify this year's rally? and more to come, perhaps, as the bulls in a.i. will say. >> like being on the cover of "sports illustrated," the "madden" curse. nvidia stock closed on the day, 485, went north of $515, only to

trade below 400 in the next couple months. same setup this time. traded right up to 485, krilted 500, here we are now. let's be clear, nvidia is an extraordinarily important company. we have said that. the stock is being rewarded in almost an obscene way in terms of valuation, in my opinion. a cyclical company still trading at valuations that i don't think make a lot of sense here. >> so, i disagree with a bunch of that, except what actually happened to the stock. before earnings last time, before earnings this time. we talked about that a couple times. that's how i went into it, they would sell into earnings and it would probably trade off, which is exactly what happened. i would like to buy it again, when i did after the last earnings. i don't agree with the valuation being so crazy. i think that part of what happened today was the whole magnificent seven traded down, which includes a lot of a.i. hype, alphabet, microsoft, netflix, meta, which has some

a.i., as well. i think we are sort of mixed up in that. didn't think the valuation's crazy, and i still think we are early in this, i don't know what you want to call it, gigantic tech tonic plate sort of change, and that i think nvidia is -- will earn their way -- actually, i do think it won't even be expensive, it will be relatively fair. >> that's starting to happen. so, if you are looking at the out-year, next year's estimates, it's trading 22 times. over the course of the last year, it's worked its way into consensus. if you are looking, backward looking, it looks very expensive for a $1.1 trillion company that had this sort of growth come out of nowhere. i'll just say this, one of the concerns right now is the customer concentration. we just saw gia talking about this stuff, this has been dominating, i think, a lot of the discourse in and around, not just here, obviously the chips

act and how we're thinking about supply chains and how we're thinking about a.i. and who is going to control a.i. in our competition with china, but also over there. the customer concentration is important. microsoft and meta make up 30% of nvidia sales, right? throw in amazon and alphabet and you get to 40%. then if you think about geographic exposure and it's maybe two-thirds outside of the u.s., right? and then if you think about those customers, you think about microsoft, every day, i've been reading stories over the last couple months how microsoft is developing their own graphics chips, to put in their own data center and the like here. so, the story for nvidia was, you know, it's not going to have the sorts of returns, it's not going to have the beats and raises going forward next year, but it is probably trading at a reasonable multiple. the only problem is, it's going to be relative to its growth, in my opinion. it's not going to be as attractive for people who jumped into this story, who recognized what it was mid--year-old this year. >> i think it is safe to expect

you're not going to get the same returns, but that doesn't mean that it's necessarily overvalued. i understand the customer concentration, but the names of those companies that you just listed are amongst the top seven companies in the united states, so, if i'm going to be concentrated, most companies have to be concentrated somewhere, i'd rather be concentrated there than, say, in some smb-type segment of the market. the other thing is, like, listen, there is some concern around the china story, and whether or not you're going to continue to see numbers pull back in that region. with that said, i do think analysts are object something that i think we just have yet to really problem our minds around how large this thing really can be. the beats and raises not withstanding. we have continued to rachet up expectations and they have continued to overperform those raise expectations. so, until i see some pull-back in terms of the growth prospects, i think you continue to look to buy pull-backs in the

name. >> you can bullish the a.i. story, but be bearish on the name at the same time. if you are a believer that companies are going to really scrutinize their balance sheets next year, because of economic troubles or what not, then how are they going to justify that level of a.i. spend, and so, it's just the level of spend, it's not necessarily that they won't be spending, but maybe they won't be spending as much as forecasted to meet the economic times. >> or maybe you've already seen the double or triple ordering. i don't know if we have the graphic of the comments from gina, but this is important. he's basically saying, if you try to circumvent the rules, we're going to go after you. i don't think you can discount that. and it's pretty important. and again, can they grow into the valuation? absolutely. it's going to take time. and that beat, or, that raise from $7 billion of revenue to 11 billion, we saw a couple quarters go, i don't think you're going to see that magnitude of percentage beat. in terms of absolute numbers,

obviously yes, we went from 18 to 20 now, but those beats are going to be smaller and smaller. typically speaking, i mean, a space that everybody wants to be in will become commoditized and margins typically decrease on the back of that. >> i think this is similar when aws, early on in their career, it seemed like, this is something that can be commoditized, right? and here we are, several years later, and still, this is a really good business. it is somewhat -- it's competitive space, for sure, they owned it before, but now you have many other -- microsoft, alphabet, oracle, others. and it think we are still early in this evolution. so, you're right, the stock can trade differently within what's happening in the underlying business, but i think the stock is going to give you another chance to own this. remember, the valuation's getting cheaper. the stock's moving a little, but the valuation is getting cheaper. and, let me just add one more thing. there's many other customers. there's dell, there's oracle, there's a lot of big customers

here, and a lot of new customers, as well. >> yeah, no, it is interesting, though, on that may quarter they reported, it was that 80% revenue, like, beat. like -- it was astounding. i don't think anybody had any whispers, anything. gapped up to $400. well, it's traded up to $500 a few times, traded down to 400s the. it's really gone sideways. investors are trying to digest all this, and if you look at next year's numbers, trading at 22 times next year's consensus, 12 times next year's sales. that seems really reasonable for a company like this that has those customers, that is in the secular shift and the like. the only problem, at some point in 2024, estimates are probably going to go down. in my opinion. for the out-year, for the next year. and once you do that, that's when the stock fills in that gap back to 350 -- >> trades where as a multiple? >> it's going to start trading more expensive, right? i mean, to me, because -- >> no, if it gaps down -- >> but if the estimates are going down, flight so, to me, right now, you are expecting in

2025 for low -- low double digits like 12%, low teens, something like that. i'm saying, it has the potential to go negative. i just want to say this. the last time we were all so excited about technology was late 2021, there was all these different advancements going on in ar and vr and the metaverse and nvidia sold off 70%, meta sold off 70%, tesla sold off 70% -- these stocks -- i mean, it can happen, people. i mean -- >> absolutely. it can happen. >> everything is amazing and it's an a.i. gold rush. that's what they told us this weekend. >> with 1.6, i think you kind of are signing up for that. you understand you bought that when you bought the stock. you are not expecting necessarily some orderly march. if the case is that, listen, we're expecting to see increased volatility, yes, i would say investors should be aware of that. otherwise, you don't need to be in this pocket of the market. the other thing that i think is being underestimated is that, yes, you may see enterprise pull back, but that doesn't mean that

nvidia is the loser. i would argue that it's going to be the secondary players that really suffer the blunt of that blow. and the full stack aspect of nvidia, i think, is something that none of us are really mentioning here. the fact we have all the developers on their platform, and they're sticky there. they have a decade head start there, so, there is some. yes -- i'm not going to push against the fact that you could see a pull-back in enterprise spend and you could see growth rate pull back altogether, but i still think that there is a strong argument to be made that this is at least fairly priced. >> software revenues that have not been fully factored into the valuation at this point, in the out years. >> interesting, we are probably all saying the same thing, just in different ways, right? it's a stock you want to own. my question is, do you want to own it here or to dan's point, you can get a better opportunity. i think you're going to get a better opportunity. i don't think anybody saw a move from $516 this summer down to below $400 in the few months later. and we went back. but my point is, the stock will

give you an opportunity cheaper than where we are, i think. >> and baron's is not wrong, as all. there is probably an a.i. gold rush going on, but the question is, will it be immune, will all these names be immune if there is a rotation out of magnificent seventh, which is what we may be witnessing right now, as we are seeing regional banks come to life, health care show some signs of life, et cetera, in this phase of the market. >> yeah. i agree with guy completely there, that -- normally, i'm the long-term holder, i don't trade around. this one, i really do, there's a lot to too in options, there's a lot of one by twos, things to do, and i think it will have a chance to do it again. >> our next guest, gene munster, managing partner at deepwater asset management. i know you are listening into our conversation. if enterprise spend pulls back at all, that the a.i. spend will also pull back, as we are in the early stages of this whole

thing. and we may not see what the returns are on investment at this point. >> melissa, i think any pull-back would largely be noise, and i think this whole conversation needs to start with some context. we've used adjectives to describe this transformation from a.i. the whole panel is optimistic, most people are optimistic, but people are still understating what the significance of this is. and if you think about the scale of how transformative this is, if we put e lectricity at 100, would put this at 70. i think we're going to see a blowout bubble in the next three to five years around a.i. that's going to impact the entire market, that's going to make this conversation look a little trivial, when we look back at it, relative to the opportunity. that said, there can be some bumps in the road. and the noteworthy. you don't just want to be a visionary, you want to be an investor. i would start there, with the point, that ultimately, i think

this is going to be much bigger. nvidia is going to be powering this. this is a good company to own, and i just want to, you know, give an example -- we don't at deepwater, we do not own nvidia. we do have the deepwater frontier tech innovator ticker, we own tsmc. it trades at eight times, they're the picks and shovels of this whole revolution. nvidia trades at 22 times. that's, as i like to say, you get your cake and ice cream, too. you get the benefit of owning this transformative wave, but you get it at a better valuation, so, there's a lot of good things going on when it comes to a.i. >> just to put your bullishness in context, gene, i'm curious. where would you have put metaverse, back in the heyday of m metaverse, on that scale of innovative trends? would it have been bigger than the internet? >> 25. i would have said it would have

been smaller than the smartphone. 3d tv at a five. autonomous cars at -- at 25 or 30, something there. i mean, this is -- i don't -- i don't want to get tripping over adjectives to hype things up, that's not what i do, but i just -- i think it's important for me to be on the record here, i think we're going into a huge bull market when it comes to a.i., i think it's going to impact a lot of companies, nvidia is going to benefit. there are smaller companies that i think will benefit more. >> gene, it's karen, thanks for coming on. i got to ask, though, why don't you own nvidia as a means of diversify case, tsmc does have other risks. >> yes. >> why not own both? >> i think that there's -- comes down to 2025 and what the expectations are for growth. it shoots at 15%. i think it's going to be better than that. i think it's going to be 15% to

20%. but it just doesn't have that, i think -- i think that's where investors heads are at right now. it's going to be great for the next few quarters. it comes down to 2025. when we look at tsmc, things that are going on with the hyperscalers, them building their own chips, what apple is doing, tsmc is going to benefit, and they have a bigger potential in 2025 to have upside. so, that's why we don't own nvidia and why we own tsmc. >> gene, bonawyn here. thank you for being with us. can you tell us how we should be thinking about the china risk to this story? it seems to be the glaring bear case if there is one to be made. can you help us kind of quantify what that may be and the duration in terms of how long that may last? >> it's the piece that keeps me up, tsmc in our portfolio. it is, to quantify the risk, it's -- i think that eventually something does happen there, in terms of china and taiwan, i

don't necessarily know it's going to be military-related, but there needs to be some resolution. when i think about that risk, i put it in the category, if something happened there, tsmc would be crushed. say it's down 50%. half of their production is still outside of taiwan. i think that's in china, i think that's an important piece around how this story is evolving. so, there still is that piece to it. i think the rest of the market's probably down 25% on something like that. i think it would be a huge event. so, i think it would be bad, i think it would be bad for the whole market, but that is the piece. and that's the reason why tsmc is not in the conversation. if there is a mag eight, tsmc would be the eight. it's hard to get onboard with that because of the risk that you're outlining, but ultimately, i think it's mana manageable. >> gene, thank you. >> thank you. >> tsmc -- that's interesting. >> totally. i think everything gene says

makes a lot of sense. and, you know, i think some of the big platform companies are going to be the big ben ne fish a beneficiaries. a company like apple or amazon or google and amazon right now that seem to be mired in, we know they've been spending billions of dollars on investment and machine learning for, you know, ten-plus years or whatever, but they can't get their products out, they can't get good reviews of their products. that's going on. they'll figure that out, you know what i mean? they will. and a company like apple, no headlines in and around generative a.i., there will be productivity, there will be all these sorts of new whiz bang things that work into their products and make them more interesting in the like, and again, what i would say is, and i've said this consistently over the last couple years, and i don't think we're out of the woods as far as a bear market is concerned, believe it or not, i think the qqq is a great way to play big secular trends, especially if the largest components are going to be the ones bs benefiting.

let's turn to airlines. alaska airlines acquiring hawaii airlines. $18 a share, nearly four times where hawaiian closed on friday. alaska down 14%, the biggest drop since the start of the pandemic. let's get more on this deal now with phil lebeau. hey, phil. >> hey, melissa. this is an interesting deal. if it goes through, with, not surprisingly, both alaska and the hawaiian ceos believe it will. it's a $1.9 billion deal. $900 million, by the way, of hawaiian debt would be acquired by alaska. both brands remain. they continue flying alaska and hawaiian airlines, but they're going to be under one corporate umbrella, going to be run by alaska. the approval is expected within 12 to 18 months, and, yes, the ceos realize that many believe the doj will likely, you know, fight this, and not approve of it. here's what the hawaiian ceo had to say this morning when we put that question to him.

>> this transaction needs to be looked on on its own merits, not compared to any other. but it is pro-consumer. we're giving more options to travelers to hawaii. there's really not a lot of overlap, and the root networks are very complimentary here, we're relatively small players in the industry. >> hey, on paper, almost nerve the industry agrees, yeah, this makes sense. but that doesn't really matter if the doj is going to fight it. by the way, alaska has offered $18 a share to all of the investors for hawaiian airlines. we reached out to the doj, as you would expect, early on, just a day or two after a proposed merger is announced, they had no comment on the specifics. i'm sure, melissa, we'll hear from him at some point. remember, the doj, as you look at shares of jetblue and spirit, they are watching the end of that hearing, that court case, final arguments, maybe tomorrow, maybe on wednesday, but it will

be this week and we could get a ruling on that by the judge by the end of this year, though many believe it will be shortly after the new year. finally take a look at the airline stocks today. for the most part, they were, you know, moving higher. interesting to see what happens, not only with jetblue and spirit, but once that's done, what does the doj say about this deal? >> yeah, and regarding this deal, if it doesn't go through, is it thought that hawaiian could be purchased by another airline or that no deal will happen? because, i mean, the stock reaction indicates that people really believe it's in place. >> yeah. i think people think it could be in play, but i'm not sure if somebody wants to get into making this offer. i spent a number of days with airline ceos over the last couple of months at various events, going to their headquarters, almost all of them say the same thing, which is, you really have to buckle up if you want to take on the doj in this environment. they are watching what happens with jetblue and spirit, and

while you can make an argument that hawaiian might be in play, if this doesn't go through with alaska, and if the biden administration is extended for another four years, do you really want to get into a fight trying to acquire an airline? >> right. phil, thank you. phil lebeau. >> you bet. >> karen, what did you make of the stock reaction? >> there's sort of a rule, no airline deals. they are just too messy, they take too long, you know, it's no thank you. >> spirit and jetblue, the regulatory thing is supposed to get cleaned up by the first half of next year. going to be interesting to watch. delta, if you look, i didn't think it was getting down to 32, it did. they speak at a conference tomorrow. i want to say it's a morgan stanley conference. keep an eye on this. they are trading vehicles, tim says it all the time. better to be long delta than short it. coming up, builders holding up at the broader market takes a dip. why buyers aren't letting rising rates stop them from getting in the door. plus, carvana cranking out the gains.

shares bouncing back from an autumn slump. where this name is going next. "fast money" iba itws ckn o.

that first time you take a step back. i made that. with your very own online store. i sold that. and you can manage it all in one place. i built this. and it was easy, with a partner that puts you first. godaddy. nature's bounty hair growth. clinically shown to help grow thicker, fuller hair with just one capsule a day of advanced hair complex. conquer hair thinning... ...and fall in love with your hair all over again. only from nature's bounty. in order for small businesses to thrive, they need to be smart, efficient, savvy. making the most of every opportunity. that's why comcast business is introducing

the small business bonus. for a limited time you can get up to a $1000 prepaid card with qualifying internet. yep, $1000. so switch to business internet from the company with the largest fastest reliable network and that powers more businesses than anyone else. learn how you can get $1000 back for your business today. comcast business. powering possibilities.

welcome back. the utb u.s. home construction etf hitting a new high today. the xhb also climbing to multiyear highs. meantime, a new b of a study finding high mortgage rates may be having a smaller impact on home buyers. the study finding 62% of purchasers would wait for rates to drop, that's down from 85% back in february. so, people may be getting used to the higher rates, guy. >> that's exactly right. it's the speed with which it happened, it scared people, but people realize, wait a second, it's bad, but i can deal with this, right? so, that's one -- and listen, the move from 5% to 4.25% in the ten-year, obviously, bolsters these names. if you think the unemployment rate is headed to 4.6 and 4.5 early next year, i think it's a very tough ask to be long home builders. it's not about a valuation.

these stocks have had meteoric rises, since the selloff we saw this year. the bounce has been amazing. i just think, if you think the employment picture changes there's no reason to be long in thebuilders. >> i agree. still, rates are really high. that's definitely, obviously, we know put a huge crimp in real estate. also, we haven't solve that, people getting out of their low mortgages yet. so, we don't have the existing home supply on the market. i'm kind of surprised at the magnitude of the bounce. i mean, i own some lowe's, that's been nice. i own some home depot and some zillow, which is nice, too, but i got to think it's not ideal yet for them. they got two years to wait, maybe. >> people are still having children, they're dying, they're retiring. >> what? >> moving out of state. >> no, life happens. >> this got really serious. >> as soon as i said dying -- but just to the point that life changes prompt having to move.

sometimes s you have to move. and then plus people are getting used to the idea that rates are going to be high. >> yeah, not to mention that the builders are buying down rates. so, i think that's why you are kind of seeing what you're seeing from those names. i still continue to like toll and dhi. i own kbh, i was playing a laggard trade. but those two barbell together, give you both points of that home buying segment, so -- if you want to kind of hedge against what guy is telling you in terms of unemployment going up, that allows you, at least in my view, to have somewhat of a hedge there, if you still insist on adding them to your portfolio in this stage of the game. >> you looked at me when you said -- >> what? >> i'm not sure. >> i like you went -- that's also -- your time has passed on that. >> act rat, by the way. we all face the same inevitability. but it speaks to the reason, if you want to own anything, it's public storage. people get older, people move --

psa is a name to look at, especially the fact it's gone from $400 to $265 in the blink of an eye. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. a stock reborn. carvana pulling a u-turn from its autumn haze. but can shares drive even higher? why analysts are feeling enlightened on this name. next. plus, crypto keeps climbing, as bitcoin passes $40,000. so, it's time for another visit from an old "fast money" friend. bk, brian kelly, is here to lay out his crypto calls. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. get iphone 15 pro on us. (♪♪)

welcome back to "fast money." carvana topping the tape today. the used car retailer surging nearly 14% on the back of a jpmorgan upgrade. the firm saying the company has improved productivity, cut costs and now has potential to establish a long-term competitive advantage. shares up 60%, but the one-time pandemic darling is still down nearly 90% from its all-time high hit in august 2021. don't get too excited. this upgrade is to a neutral, so, it's not like a pound the table sort of buy. >> no, it's not. went from underweight to neutral, $40 price target. a lot of analysts can't do that double dog dare. they can't go from underweight to buy, so -- i would wait for the next, you know, neutral to buy, which is coming to a theater near you at some point, maybe the price target is $46. we get there. then you pull the rip cord. there's still a lot of momentum. the fundamentals -- i don't think they've changed all that

much, price has. i think there's still room to run on the upside. >> the view overall on the used car market out of jpmorgan is pretty anything. slow recovery, consumer balance sheets are depleted, affordability is not good. >> right. and i don't know, part of -- they can run this better, but still this is -- you know, i was very, very pessimistic on them being able to survive, but they were able to leverage everything that wasn't nailed down to anything and were able to buy time, which is really important. the other thing is worth noting, 41% short interest, you get a hint of something positive and it can really take off. i like to look at the debt, because the debt investors are a lot smarter than the equity investors. one of the larger floats, 12% of, i think, 28, and you can see, it's up some, actually with bonds having -- with interest rates having come down. you think it would be up more, so, it's -- you know, 15% yield, that's kind of high, but the one

other thing that's worth noting, the stock going up to here probably should be considering, they probably are, selling more stock. >> right. >> and if people believe they're worthy of this, then they can maybe, you know -- >> buy some more time. >> buy some more time. that's all you need. more time. >> yeah, i mean, the stock's expensive. it's ten times more expensive on the ebitda basis than its peers. and the story here is about tightening up operations and reconditioning. buying cars, getting them up to standard to resell them. and there is a lot to be made in terms of them bringing that technology in-house, getting the logistics in order in terms of, if you think about it as an assembly line, taking something from start to finish without having interruptions. with that said, it is still very expensive, and the argument that jpmorgan is saying, they will be in a position when growth returns, in order for them to be able to scale. they are still facing competition from brick and m

mortar develops. i would pump the brakes on this one. coming up, a newcomer in the weight loss race. how the latest entry into the obesity battle stacks up to the competition. and don't look now, but it is brian kelly, laying out his crypto calls as bitcoin keeps climbing. where he sees the space heading next, when "fast money" returns. what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today.

trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, giving traders even more ways to sharpen their skills with tailored education. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. trade brilliantly with schwab.

welcome back to "fast money." stocks starting the week in the red, as they take a breath. the dow falling 40 points. the s&p down half a percent, the nasdaq dropping 0.8. shares of starbucks on an 11-day losing streak, down nearly 9% since november 17th. and gold hitting a new intraday record today, crossing the 2150 an ounce mark, but the precious medal ended the day lower, closing more than 100 bucks off its morning peak. it was an interesting reversal, guy. i don't know what you made of it. >> i don't know what to make of it. last night, gold was up $60 in the asian market, now it's $40. that is a key reversal, for you

technicians out there. and it's really scary if you are long. what happened? probably buy stops got triggered. i don't think the gold story has changed. the technical story, though, changed in the short-term for sure. >> bitcoin also booming. the crypto hitting 42,000 for the first time in over a year and a half. bitcoin is up more than 150% this year. a host of crypto-related stocks riding this rally. check out the gains in coinbase, microstrategy, marathon digital. names up 300% or more so far this year. let's ask the baller, longtime "fast money" friend, brian kelly, he's back in the house, can't get enough. can't get enough of him, either. brian, welcome back. >> thank you. >> so, obviously you're long, you're very bullish. >> yes. >> has anything changed in terms of the trajectory move higher? >> not really. so, this move is really built on this anticipation of an etf, probably january 5th to january 10th. as it gets higher, of course i'm

going to get scared, because how much of that is already priced in? we're getting pretty close to that. in terms of the longer term trajectory for bitcoin, you have to think, we're in this one to two-year bull market period, we'll have the pull-backs, even in '17 when we had a massive run, we had months it was down 30%, 40%. so, you just have to keep that in mind. >> january 5th to 10th. seems like it's all downside. you have the sell the news or the disappoint, so how do you position into that? >> i think you're long going into it and then you start layering out of it as you get towards the end of the year. so, let's call it over the next week or two. that's the strategy we're going to employ. >> and the reaction, you know, in sympathy from the other -- will there be a sympathy move, too? >> what we've seen in bull markets is a month after bitcoin moves, it starts to go to the cart. then it starts to go down the list. that's what i would anticipate, let's call it january or so. >> bk, say hi to brian, by the way.

a lot of this move is quince dent with the fact that five rate cuts apparently are priced in for next year. every time we pull them forward, bitcoin seems to take a leg up. is there any truth to that? >> yeah, i think it's a macro tailwind. we've been fighting riser rates, stronger dollar, all of that. the fed is probably done. europe has a real problem on their hands. china's got a massive problem on their hands. and japan is unlikely to tighten. when i look at global liquidity, sure, gold, bitcoin, both are going to do well in this environment. >> so, question about the having, i've heard it called the having, we're getting to that in april, i think -- >> yeah. >> and that's been a bullish thing before. i wonder, is it the same thing? is that already getting priced in, or is there something technical that actually happens that would make it be priced in closer to the event? or after the event. >> the 12 to 16 months after a having is the best performance

of bitcoin. this time, you know, this time might be different, because the price of bitcoin's higher. we only have 900 bitcoin a day that comes out, that gets cut in half. it's not a lot of bitcoin, but what it does do, it makes bitcoin more scarce than gold. so, for the first time in history, you have an asset is more scarce. >> in what way? >> the amount of bitcoin mined every year divided by the amount outstanding, same with gold. and now, there will be less bitcoin than gold mined on a relative basis. >> bk, you sat in these seats for a long time on this desk, a "fast money" regular, and you miss a lot of things about the show. >> a lot. >> but first and foremost, we know you miss would you rather. so, let's do a quick game, america's favorite game, of course. would you rather bitcoin or gold? >> oh, bitcoin. yeah. >> you are long both? >> i am long both, absolutely. yeah, sure. you have to bet on the fastest story, i heard that once. >> next up, japan or america?

so, dxj versus s&p 500. >> i think japan. it's a little bit cheaper, earlier in the cycle for them. they have raised wages, which haven't come quite through the economy yet. so, i think japan is a little better. >> and the last one, dan or guy? >> what? >> wow! ca can i have a scoop of both? >> with a little karen on top, absolutely. anything for you, bk. >> thank you. >> great to see you, thank you. >> good to be here. >> brian kelly, the one and only. >> he answered that properly. the last one. >> yeah. >> yeah. >> he would have said neither. but -- >> are we still on, because i wanted to change my thing to guy? >> you are long bitcoin, right? >> i am. you know, in some ways, for the kind of investor i am, it is unusual -- >> yeah. >> but i did feel like -- and i owe it all to bk who really manages it for me, but also sort

of, you know, told me the story and why it could work and several years later now, it actually has, so, i'm sticking with it. and hoping for the having bull market and the etf. >> i like the japan trade. i'm not sure i like it more than i like the u.s. market. that is always going to trade at a premium. but they are in the early stages of what is likely a bull run. >> i'm still getting over this whole dan or guy, i mean, that's -- that's mean. i pick dan. bk wanted to say dan, but he felt bad for me. >> you know who i mom picked, dan or guy? >> guy. >> yeah. coming up, another big pharma company jumping into the race for obesity drugs. what does the latest contestant mean for the competcompetition? a live report on the details, next. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

you were always so dedicated... ♪ we worked hard to build up the shop, save for college and our retirement. but we got there, thanks to our advisor and vanguard. now i see who all that hard work was for... it was always for you. seeing you carry on our legacy— i'm so proud. at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner. setting up the future for the ones you love. that's the value of ownership.

♪everything i do that's for my health is an accomplishment.♪ ♪concerns of getting screened faded away♪ ♪to my astonishment.♪ ♪my doc gave me a script i got it done without a delay.♪ ♪i screened with cologuard and did it my way.♪ cologuard is a one-of-a-kind way to screen for colon cancer that's effective and non-invasive. it's for people 45 plus at average risk, not high risk. false positive and negative results may occur. ask your provider for cologuard. ♪i did it my way!♪

welcome back to "fast money." a new challenger throwing its hat into the weight loss ring today. swiss pharmaceutical company roche announcing plans to

acquire carmot therapeutics for $2.7 billion in cash. roche shares up almost 3% on the news. carmot's offering may not be market redady until the 2030s. angelica peebles has the details. >> carmot has a weekly shot targeting glp-1 and gip that's ready to go into phase two trials. it has a glp-1 targeting pill in phase one. the company's playing out the possibility of combination therapies. roche has an experimental muscle strengthening drug that it might be able to combine with the weight loss drug to help preserve muscle mass. one criticism of these new weight loss drugs is that they cause people to lose both fat and muscle. and now, melissa, the deal showing just how eager pharma is to jump into the race and how small bio techs need help going up against behemoths like eli lilly and novo nordisk.

carmot said it would look for partners to help it compete. don't be surprised if we see more of this activity in the space. melissa? >> angelica, thank you. this is an interesting deal. two of the drugs are ready to go into phase two. it's a long ways off. it's a lot up front, with the milestone payments being 400 million at milestones, up to. >> yeah. i thought -- it was an odd deal in that it's a lot of money for what -- a lot of uncertainty, right? it could be worth a ton, several years down the road. >> right. >> so, that sort of is surprising to men. the only thing that doesn't make it that surprising, they were filing for an ipo this is the time to get them before. this is maybe an active augst, i don't know. a lot of interest there, and roche is gigantic. even if it's money not well spent, to roche, it's not a ton of dollars. >> interesting. typically, they wait for these drugs to be proven and then they'd rather buy the company 5x

than pay for it now with the uncertainty. i think in their mind, they'd rather pay this money now than potentially 20x -- >> somebody else buys them. >> somebody else do it in between. i never talk about these things but, the xbi, an etf, not particularly greatly kops tuted, all 1.5%, 2% names, but if we have a longer term chart, bottomed out at 67. huge double bottom here. if there's going to be m and s in this space, xbi is a way to diversify the risk. >> we've made the comparison in the past to a.i., right? in terms of the big players out there, established players and are they going to grab all the market share, crowd the smaller players out. are we at the point now in terms of the obesity drug race where we have the two heavyweights, so to speak, and all the other ones are just trying to stay alive in this growing area? >> well, former heavyweight here. it's kind of interesting. when you think about lilly, we

talked about this with novo nordisk, and it's a two-horse race. and we saw the news out of pfizer. they want to get into it. pfizer can't get out of their own way, and you look at roche, you said, okay, this does seem like an option. it's differentiated because of that muscle mass component. if you are looking at, what's the next big megatrend in pharmaceuticals, or has the ability to transform the entire health care system, you kind of have to be there and i think that's what this bet looks like. and again, i think lilly and novo become less interesting as we get further along and get more clarity about what the competitive landscape looks like. >> what did you make of the pfizer news? your pfizer? >> yes. i share it with tim. >> yes. i did text him, oh, shim, our trade isn't working too well. he was well aware of. disappointing, for sure. i was surprised how quickly that unraveled. disappointing. traded a little bit better, but this is really not a good one.

coming up, music to investors ears. spotify's latest cost-cutting plans sending the stock soaring. how they're trsfmi, xtanorngne. more "fast money" in two.

(sfx: stone wheel crafting) ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪

the power goes out and we still have wifi whato do our homework.py? and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network.

welcome back to "fast money." spotify shares surging to kick off the week after the ceo said they would cut 17% of its work force, or 1,500 jobs. the company's third set of layoffs this year. the news coming after spotify announced a quarterly profit of $70 million. the stock is up 150% this year. dan, what did you make of -- people are all jazzed up, they think profitability sooner. >> this is the first year, or next year, they are hoping to swing to. it is interesting how investors react to that sort of news, but this is a company that, you know, has 25% gross margins, you think about their competitors in the streaming landscape, they are far better. i think netflix is north of 40% so, the cost structure got a little bloated. they have made lots of great in-roads and podcasting and other services. but it does make sense, especially where the stock is right now, that you'd be looking to guide the street towards some level of profitability, and it looks like it's achievable next

year. >> if i told you a stock was up 150%, making their third employment cut, would you be a buyer or a seller? what they are indicating to you is, if you have had a good run, i would take some profits. >> that's a game we often play, if i had told you, how would you think the stock would act. >> variation of a theme. >> that's a good point. it sounds terrible, but the conclusion is, meeting those 2022 goals sooner than expected. >> which they will, and the flip side of that coin is, we admit that we probably hired too many people too quickly, we're fixing that, we're going to be focused on efficiencies, we're going to get profitable next year. valuation in no longer be a concern. we understand the problems, we're fixing it. analysts probably behind the eight-ball. a couple of them raised their price tacts to $220. i think you're going to see that. i think the stock can keep going higher from here. >> so, it's interesting to me the response to this, right? i mean, you make an excellent point. i wonder if we're going to start

seeing this again and again and again. we never think of, wow, i wonder what will the business lose from having these fewer employees? i don't know. i don't know their business well enough to understand who was laid off and what that means. but i think, for as long as people start -- continue to give companies credit for doing it, we're going to see it, and it could dovetail with weakness in their business, not just efficiency. >> right. up next, final trades.

( ♪ ♪ ) ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo. the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com

final trade time. bonawyn? >> in honor of bk, dxj. >> karen? >> yes. i took some money off the table in bxp, rates down, stock's traded up. >> dan? >> yeah, toll brothers into the print tomorrow night. i think those incentives probably hurt them. i bet that retraces, that move. seller. >> guy?

>> "fast money" first, bonawyn mentioned, a guest brought him or herself back in the form of bk, but then you said -- >> it's fine, because it's bk. >> right. >> i give dispensation. >> jetblue, mel. >> thank you for watching fast. we start right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. matt money starts right now. hey, i'm kramer. welcome to mad money. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain, but the teacher. so call me at -- or tweet me. sometime -- we've just got a use it. we're teaching people what happens in the market --