2024 storey. the stock is cheap, and i think they're continuing to gain market share. >> you guys see apple today? it is up better than $4. that is 2.2%. and the stock is moving back towards $195. so we'll watch out for the remainder of the session, update you on "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ thank you very much, scott. and welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans, and here is what's ahead. the labor market is showing slack, but when will it be enough for the fed to start cutting? the market thinks march. some are even pricing in january. morgan stanley says june. our economists said something entirely different last time she was on. we'll ask her if today's data changed anything. plus, if you didn't hear this yet, cvs is going to change the way they price prescription drugs. the ceo karen lynch joins us exclusively with the details ahead. they say it will lower costs.

dr. scott gottlieb will be here to react, and we'll ask them about that new study showing that chatgbt may incorrectly be answering medication related questions. he says it's true. call it rom commerce. walmart is launching a shopable show and advertiser also love it, but will it draw view sers? dom chu has the numbers. clear story in bond land. >> on the stock side of things, we have seen both sides, positive and negative so far today. on balance for the most part, it's a down day today. the dow down about 105 points, 1/3 of 1% declines. the s&p 500 at 4562, down about seven points, about 0.2% decline there. and at the highs of the session, we were up nine points and down 18 points at the low. so we have been it witilting to the lower end of that range.

the nasdaq, at 14,194 the last trade. kelly mentioned that yield story. the data, the prevailing narrative and everything else going on, has led to that bid for government bonds here in the u.s., and elsewhere around the world, as well. notably here in the u.s., the ten-year benchmark sits at 4.178%. now, remember, i'll point it out, at the cycle highs, we were north of 5%, about 5.02%. we have dropped a lot in just a couple months' time here. just to give you an idea how close we are, we're kind of approaching that 200-day moving average or longer term trend line for the ten-year note yield. you have to go back to june to the last time we traded below those levels. and part of that story with lower interest rates, a weakening u.s. dollar, optimism over possibly exchange traded products coming to markets soon enough have given crypto that momentum trade feeling right now. bitcoin prices now above 43,000.

43,325 the last trade there, up 161% year-to-date. a whole new trading range. you have to go back, kelly, to april of 2022 to see bitcoin prices at these levels. it's now, yes, some fundamental pieces that might be underlying this. but it sure looks like a momentum trade. it's gone almost parabolic in the last couple of months. >> $43,400, wow! bom dom, thank you very much. job openings fell to their lowest levels in the last 2 1/2 years. steve liesman has the lata, and bond yields were falling before we got these reports, in fairness. >> the whole operation goes south on me, at least yields did. data coming in today in line with an economy that is slowing, which is what the bond market

shows. ism services, 51.8. now 52.7. growing a bit faster. price index unchanged and employment modest at around the 50 level. jolts, 9.6 was the prior. big miss to the downside. fed wants to see the job openings decline. and the quits rate, 2.3%. they say -- >> all of this making the market more sure of coming rate cuts from the fed in the not-too-distant future. march rocketing up to 64%. and then looking at the trajectory of rates, we look at

the off months of the ones without meetings. you can see there's a quarter built in at almost every meeting with a bit more towards the end of the year, looking at that january 25 contract. looking at 4% or 1.4% of rate cuts in there. the question is, is the market too confident about when and how much the fed will cut? the market may be priced to have little tolerance here in the data, kelly. >> all right, steve. stay with us, as we bring in our chief economist. cathy, last time we spoke in october we were talking about the possibility of another hike being on the table. but you think that's definitely out the window now? >> hi, kelly. happen to be with you and steve. yeah, it's amazing how just a matter of two months or so, it makes such a big difference. we take that the fed is now done raising rates. the inflation numbers that steve

alluded to have come in better, and have been very encouraging. and the job numbers, as well. jolts this morning, it just is adding to the fact that the economy looks like it's slowing. and perhaps that soft landing. we still hold a mild recession forecast for next year, but for all intents and purposes, the focus is on how many rate cuts now. we have, for a while, thought that they start to cut rates in may, and end of year at 4%. and the markets have come, as steve illustrated, have come right in line with that. although it's happened so quickly, that makes me concerned and a little up neasy, and the fact that they're pricing in cuts in march i think is a bit premature. >> steve, at one point, there was a 10% chance of a january cut. >> yeah. that's where we are now, the 12%. the story kathy is alluding to,

that march number was 10%, 12%. those numbers moved a lot. i came in this morning, and i looked at them. 60% for march? i remember when it was low double digits. look, the market has an ace in the hole here, kelly, that i would be interested in kathy's comments on, which is that there's a bunch of month over month changes in core pce that were in the 0.4% and 0.5% range, and they're going to stop dropping out. even if the inflation rate stays neutral, you'll get the year over year rate by the dropping out of these larger numbers. i think the market may be internalizing that as one reason it feels confident that the fed will have the data in hand for a potential cut in march. that said, sooner or later, somebody is going to have to

give on this, the fed or the market. >> kathy? >> yeah, no doubt, especially if those larger numbers are dropping out of the calculation. it's important to look at the three-month, say three-month annualized change. we tend to like the month over month, and then the three-month change. buttal ev even there you're see encouraging numbers, and that probably continues. we look more at the core, look at goods and services, and look at the super core number that chair powell referenced. what concerns me is what is happening in the rental inflation. now, it probably continues to decelerate, but there's a supply demand imbalance in housing, and that could throw a wrench in th

things. >> so you're kind of looking for what could keep that -- i just want to mention to both of you the flip side of what we're dealing with. a year ago everyone thought we were going into recession. now, you still expect one but a soft landing seems to be the consensus. is everyone going to be right? because usually they're not. >> well, it's funny. i was happy to be in the no recession camp for a while. when everyone gravitates to me, my hatred of being in the popular camp makes me rethink the idea. that said, i think there's a good chance. the fed is going to need to react here eventually, because otherwise it's just going to get too tight and several fed officials have acknowledged that. in fact, you can date back -- not date that far back, but date back the last week, it was

waller who simply said the obvious, right? you remember when we reported that, kelly? when he said, look, if inflation falls, the fed can lower rates because otherwise, we're going to be tighter than we intend to be. so that's just -- so it's not like a tightening to loosen conditions. it's a tightening to keep things as tight as they were. they're going to have to do that, and it will be hard to explain, i think, given if the inflation numbers go the way they're projected to go, it's going to be hard to explain why they're not doing it. >> all right. we'll leave it there. kathy, we'll see what happens in another six weeks or so. could be quite a lot. we appreciate your time. now, the markets are hoping for a goldilocks outcome for the economy. take a look at shares of american express, off the session lows after the ceo said october billings were not as strong as q3.

what do we make of it all? we love these data points from these conferences, michael, because it gives us this a close to a realtime read as possible. maybe november is a little better. >> good afternoon, kelly. yeah, i think it underscores the importance of not relying on any one data point, but trying to get as many as you can and then make some broader, you know, 35,000 phone calls based on the broader, you know, number of data points. so, yeah, i mean, i'm not sure what to read into this. i mean, i think steve in the last segment got it right with respect to the fed. if things continue to trend the way they are, they will cut rates to maintain a balance with respect to the right cost to capital, given the economic environments. i don't think they're cutting as quickly as the market perceived based on some of the other data

points you put up there. >> is this the reason why bitcoin and gold, what's going on with these asset classes? >> if the cost of capital comes down, the speculative trade goes up. the risk goes down in terms of financing on more speculative bets. that makes sense. there is an alternative asset class component like bitcoin. i don't consider bitcoin a proxy for gold, but that's a whole separate argument. i can see why it's gone up. it was also beaten down. so there's a number of factors there. with respect to gold, i think i can make a more concrete case, and i would look at several factors. number one, we have been on a strong dollar trade for the last decade. and at some point that will reverse. reversion to the mean, et cetera. that's bullish for gold. i would say the central banks around the world continue to be buyers, possibly to financecurr

dollar. i would say the fed is close to being done, if not already done, and with reports like today, firms up the argument that they probably are done. i would point to the fact that gold held up really well the last couple of years in one of the more volatile rate hike environments we've ever seen. if you look at 2013 and how gold fell that year ten years ago based on what occurred during that period, you would have expected gold to fall a cliff off the last year and a half and it has not. >> just to mention -- >> lastly -- >> yes. >> the geopolitical issues out there. >> so jim reed at deutsche bank ran through the long-term data this morning. and gold holds, it doesn't lose value, it returns about 0.3% per year since 1800. but he says you can get 3% a year from owning a ten-year u.s.

government bond and 7% on equities. each since the fiat inflation era in 197 1, equities give you 6.5%. so you can make a case for holding it, but you can really do better elsewhere it seems. >> yeah. those numbers sound low to me to be honest. but fair enough. gold doesn't pay interest in dividends. gold is very volatile. there are periods of time like during the '90s where it did nothing for a long period of time. then it sort of caught up in the period from 2000 to 2013. it balanced itself out and was in a trading range for most of the teens. the last few years, it's moved quite a bit. when you keep printing money and you keep declining the unit value of currency around the world, gold holds its value. i would argue that holding that

value is higher than the 1%. and sometimes very aggressively. but i would say that there are reasons why you use gold as part of a broader strategy, unless you're a trader and you trade in short-term trends. you want to own part of it to provide balance to a portfolio to provide a non-correlated feature, and it will give you a return in whole values. so there is a reason you own it as part of a broader strategy. >> you mention how speculative assets tend to do better. if you look at the etf, where were we at the end of october? we were at 34. we've jumped to 48. you're looking more to the likes of lockheed. why not pile -- if you like gold and think this is going to be a good environment, why not pile into something more speculative to chase returns instead of something more defensive? >> well, fair question. our point of view is to balance off all those things.

you mentioned a couple of the stocks that most people view as more value oriented or commodity based. i would argue free port is more of a copper play than a gold play. there's reason why is the copper play has a more adresggressive . we pair that off with technology. we own nvidia, for example. we own affirm. so we pair off different debldz payers considered growth stocks to give a broader range of return and to hem dge our bets. >> and you have a sprinkle of everything. michael, thank you for your time today. appreciate it. >> thanks, kelly. you, too. still to come, cvs holding its first investor day in two years. reaffirming full-year guidance and making big news how they will price prescription drugs going forward. the ceo joins us next, with the

shares up 4% today but down 23% this year. plus, what happens when a rom com meets e-commerce. details with walmart coming up. the dow and the s&p are lower. the nasdaq hanging on to a 0.1% gain. the russell is struggling while bond yields fall. back after this.

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welcome back. shares of cvs are jumping 4% today as the company's first investor day in two years is under way. although the shares are also still down more than 35% from their peak nearly two years ago. among the key highlights today, cvs is overhauling prescription drug pricing at pharmacies. for more, let's bring in bertha coombs joined by karen limynch. >> karen, thanks for joining us. you've done quite a lot in your more than 2 1/2 years. you set out to acquire primary care, home care. you've done that. and now, next year, you're facing all these challenges with

the loss of the pharmacy benefit contract from centine, a very big one. you have lower reimbursement rates on medicare advantage, higher employment costs. and yet, you have raised the outlook when it comes to revenues next year. how are you making this happen? >> nice to be here today. if you look back two years, we have accomplished everything we said we would. we said we wanted to enter into primary care, the home, and enter into physician reorganization, we have done that. we wanted to reduce our operating cost structure, we have done that. we wanted to improve health outcomes in patient engagement. we grew 20 million digital customers, reaching 55 million digital engagements. as we look to next year, it's an exciting year for us. we talk today about our growth in medicare advantage. we're going to grow over 600,000 medicare advantage members. we're introducing new pricing

models in our pvm and our pharmacies to really drive what consumers value. for us, and our company, it all starts and ends with the consumer. we're really excited about the products and services, and the integrated model that we have to offer to our customers. >> you talked about the fly wheel and how one part, like oak street health helps feed to another. the health care feeds to the pharmacy. let's talk about the new pricing model, the cost vantage and true cost. this is something that your critics have been talking about for years, and over the last year, you have had members of congress try to get at it, but the ftc has been looking at the pharmacy benefit managers, and then you have competitors like mark cuban's cost plus, which won out a big client in california, blue cross. so how is this an answer to all

of those pressures? >> yeah, you said it right. there's increased scrutiny over the cost of pharmacy and drugs. as a company, you know, as i said, we're committed to lowering the overall total cost of health care. what this does is it essentially aligns the economics of our pricing for drugs to what consumers will pay at the pharmacy counter. so essentially, what people have been saying, we don't understand. it's not transparent. it's not easy to understand how much drugs cost. we're changing that. we're a leader. and this is our opportunity to chart a new path to change pharmacy drug pricing, and we're doing that. >> so just to make it clear, the complaint now is, for example, say i'm going to get wagovey. you acquired it for $600, but i'm going to pay co-insurance based on the list price, which

is over $1,000. how will this change that? >> so if you think about what we're trying to do, take insurance aside for now. what the pharmacy will do is it will say, okay, $600. we'll have a mark-up fee, and then have another fee for services. and that's the cost that we will negotiate and transfer to the pdms. and then they negotiate with the insurance companies and the employers. they'll make the decisions around what your co-pays are. but we will have that transparent pricing at the pharmacy counter, and through the entire health care chain. and we couldn't be more excited about it, because we are, you know, committed to lowering drug pricing. >> bertha, thanks. karen, i was going to, to that point, you said you're a leader in this regard. isn't this how cost plus drugs works with mark cuban, which is fine? you think this is how it will

work going forward with an acknowledgement that the status quo doesn't work for anybody, including maybe some who might be losing money on the glib one drugs. >> it's interesting, and you're right, kelly, the status quo doesn't work anymore. there's consumer demand for transparency. obviously, we just talked about the regulatory scrutiny. so it is a cost plus markup, plus a fee. and that's the transparency of what we're trying to do, and it's time for change. you know, if not us, who? and that's really what we're trying to do. we are the leader in the industry. if we don't make the change, will else is going to? so that's why we're really excited about the new model we're bricking to the market. >> so that would start in 2025. in the meantime, one of the other issues that is happening at your stores is just workers being burned out. we're seeing -- to see

pharmacists walk out and talk about demonstrating when they're not even part of a union, and now talking about unionizing, how are you dealing with that and how disruptive is that? >> yeah, you know, bertha, it was a very targeted and concentrated group of individuals. but i would say a couple of things. we strive to be the employer of choice. we have invested over $1 billion in wages in the last two years for our pharmacies. we have been improving, and you heard some of this today, we're using technology to create efficient work flows for our pharmacists. so to reduce some of that burnout. we're investing in hiring, and we're investing in more hours. and really trying to make sure that we are the employer of choice. we have lots of confidencesconv with our pharmacists. there's 30,000 pharmacists that we employ every day. not all 30,000 were, you know,

complaining about walking out. i think we have addressed the situation. >> all right, karen lynch, we'll leave it there. we could talk about so much more. hopefully we'll continue this confidence. thanks for joining us. kelly? >> thank you both very much. let's bring in dr. scott gottlieb, former fda commissioner and cnbc i commissioner. hopefully you got to hear her remarks. what would your response be? >> i think it's a productive move on the part of cvs. it reflects less of the fact that the margin is going to be driven out they contract with drug companies through their pbm and rebates that get paid and more maybe through the pharmacy channels. so by changing how they pay the pharmacies right now, it's a move away from focus on trying to make money from the spread on drugs, rationalizing that, making it more transparent, and then charging a price that's tied to what the drugs actually

cost. i think this is going to provide some advantage to the pharmacy and will give consumers more predictable experience at the pharmacy counter, they'll know what the drugs cost rather than being opaque, which is it off today. >> this feels like a very big moment. it's the end of an era in some ways of this whole model of integrating the pharmacy benefit managers into the pharmacy experience. i think originally, it was supposed to both lower costs and increase margins, has probably flowed mostly to the parent companies. yet the parent companies haven't done that well, if you look at it as a result. so the consumer is upset. it's not like these companies have been great performers. how different might the experience of buying a typical pharmacy drug be in a couple more years' time? >> look, i think the writing was on the wall with respect to the complex formulas that are used to try to determine what drugs cost at the pharmacy counter and

what they cost to the consumer and health plans. congress will pass legislation that will erode the ability to make margin off of that. so cvs making moves to rationalize the fomrmula they use, the consumer will have more insight into what drugs cost, it will help the pharmacies have more stability in their revenue. that's going to advantage the pharmacies and improve that experience at the expense of probably reducing some of the margin they were making on the pbms because of the contracting they were doing there. but that was going to happen any way. so shifting the emphasis to try to make the pharmacy a better experience was probably a smart move on their part. >> speaking of moving drugs into the future. we're getting reports that the free version of chatgbt gives some inaccurate or incomplete answers to drug-related questions. this was farlpharmacists at theg

island university. it seems like a fairly obvious conclusion to draw, but i think about the way i've been using it myself, sometimes i do ask it medical questions. you know, maybe that's a slippery slope here. >> look, i think right now these large language models are better formulated for formulating good questions rather than good answers. the training sets aren't regulatory high-grade training sets. so the information that you get out is only as reliable as the information that they're looking at. in a lot of cases, these models, including chatgbt, are looking at old information, especially drug information, drug side effect information, changes very quickly. it's hard to know where to go for the most updated information. so the best way to use these models is they do help formulate good questions. so you can get a good differential diagnosis if you put in a constellation of symptoms. some things make no sense clinically, but sometimes they have insights you might not have

thought of as a consumer or even a physician. i wouldn't rely on them for drug side effects or interactions, something you need to consult your physician for. >> you go, i'm dr. scott gottlieb, i can fact check this. but maybe this could be the future for cvs. if somebody could give it up-to-date sources, chat cvs could be a valuable product if it were trustworthy. >> yeah, look, the fada has cleared about 600 devices meaning the data set the fda can verify the accuracy of the data. the first person to enter the market with a large language model trained on a high-caliber clinical data set, and companies are trying to do that right now. that will have a lot of good first mover advantage.

potentially, this can move the physician out of the loop. if you are going to use a large language model, the doctor still needs to be in the loop. otherwise, it's a medical device regulated by the fda, and i don't think the fda is in position to clear or approve these. precisely because the data isn't reliable, so you need regulatory grade data sets. >> fascinating that might be in the works. at some point we can look forward to that. dr. scott gottlieb, thank you, sir. coming up, airbnb is back in growth mode according to the ceo. and the first order of business is a week shuffle. why now and whether their business model is still sustainable. and take a look at shares of charter, sinking 8% today after the cfo warned the cable company could post negative numbers in q4. we're back after this.

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welcome back to "the exchange," everybody. i'm tyler mathisen with your cnbc news update. republican leaders said today that the house will likely vote next week to formalize their impeachment inquiry into joe biden. next week is the last week the chamber is in session before lawmakers leave for the holidays. a press conference today, speaker mike johnson called the vote a necessary constitutional step. results from a global exam show that u.s. math scores are falling behind their peers in

other industrialized countries. student's scores on an international math assessment in 2022 showed a 13-point drop compared to scores in 2018. they were also among the lowest scores ever measured in math for the u.s. i got one idea, the pandemic didn't help. congressman patrick mchenry announced he's not going to run for re-election in 2024. the house republican gained national attention when he was named speaker pro-tem for three weeks in october after republicans ousted kevin mccarthy from the role of speaker. mchenry was first elected back in 2004. kelly, back to you. >> a big about face. tyler, thank you. tyler mathisen. coming up, walmart down 9% since its all-time high. and while it suspended advertising on x, it's trying a new route to attract shoppers now. he l e tas,ext. hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light.

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welcome back to "the exchange." walmart linking two seasonal favorites, holiday movies and online shopping. the retailer calling it a rom commerce. walmart's add to heart, that's the name of it, it's a shopable

23-part commercial series that not only entertains consumers but allows them to shop with what they see in each scene. but will consumers stick around to peruse all 300 products? let's bring in mark douglas, and retail consultant jan nifen. i don't know why i get a kick out of this, it's not like it's the newest idea ever, but it's pretty explicit, wouldn't you say? >> yeah, it's been around since the 1920s when buster keeten first did it. but i love the idea of a three-minute thing that you can do really quickly and order from it. our attention spans have gone to nothing, and three minutes is about right for a rom com, in my opinion. i don't think they have to stick around to look at all 300 items. if they spend any time on any of

these segments, this is going to be a very successful effort. because it's novel, fast, easy, and it's really spinning to a younger audience, which is going to be great for walmart. >> i know you think advertisers will love it. will people watch, and it looks like a regular movie to me. i don't understand, is it clickable, do i watch it in tiktok? how do i buy stuff? >> well, i think they're relying on roku and other tv manufacturers that you're going to be able to start to interact with the television itself. which is new. normally, you can't interact really with the show. you can't interact with the ads. my opinion on it, though, is that for rom coms and general content, it's not going to do that well. the first rule of marketing is you need a clear call to action and just hoping people are going to kind of like oh, that looks interesting, maybe i can buy it.

i'm not sure that will work well. but for sports and selling sports apparel, cookware, you know, where there's really engagement in the show, i think that the idea has a lot of merit. >> so you don't think it's explicit enough? >> exactly. >> for a shopping oriented series, you think -- what would that look like to be something even more explicit? more almost like qv zplrvegs -- qvc? >> you can buy the sports apparel right now during this game or have like a celebrity chef on food network saying hey, i'm using this cookware, and if you want to buy this, just click that on your tv. the general thing you see with consumers is they need a little nudging. they don't sit around like

ha haphazardly buying products. >> just beat them to death with it until they give in. that's how i usually respond to advertising. >> i agree, you do have to beat them to death. if they're not interested in something, you don't buy it. but on these little pieces, there's a clickable spot on there. when it shows the shoes, it basically gives you a little ad box. so if you're interested in those shoes, you're saying they're selling these. so i think this will work and get better. you know how that works. you make the first batch of them, see how the consumer reacts. but i'm excited about this. i think this can work. and i think that walmart has got the right idea. make them very short, put something in there that's light and airy, and showing it, pushing products, let you click on it to buy it. >> is it too expensive? why go through the trouble of doing this whole filmed series when you can just have tiktok influencers outlining these are

the ten cool things i want from walmart? >> it might be too expensive. that's what we don't know yet. my guess is, if you're walmart, you can get these made cheaply. and my guess also is that they're going to get an enormous amount of exposure, and you don't have the risk that some crazy influencer also does something else stupid in the process while you're relying on them. this is all preplanned stuff. they won't have mistakes made like you get with influencers. >> quick last word, mark? >> they call people couch potatoes for a reason. i'm not so sure they're ready to become super engaged consumers while laying back on the couch. we'll see how it plays out. >> gentlemen, thank you both. don't miss walmart's ceo on "squawk on the street" tomorrow morning at 11:00 a.m. eastern. could be a whole new category, or not. coming up, the ten-year yield plunging over the past six years to barely above 4%.

many tech stocks are still in efficient mode, as yesterday's layoffs at spotify noted. we'll dig into one company's changes, as the ceo says it's also at an inflection point. that's next.

welcome back. airbnb shaking its c suite. diedra bosa has the details. >> kelly, this has been one of the most disciplined tech companies over the last few years, and they found that discipline in the pandemic. it didn't go on this crazy hiring spree over 2021. so thousand the company has decided it is time for growth. to reaccelerate. growth sort of peaked at 70% after the pandemic and stagnated around 18% over the last two quarters.

the person they're putting this charge of this is dave stevenson. he spent about two decades at amazon, so it's interesting to speculate what he's going to do. remember, airbnb has this ecosystem, this platform that's self-contained. many of the users go directly to the airbnb app or airbnb.com to book. they don't even go through search engines like google. it's interesting timing, because as wall street looks to -- looks for the fed to cut rates, there's going to be more emphasis, more value on growth versus profitability. so really this year of efficiency, that we have seen in tech could turn into a year of growth. and airbnb would be well positioned if itis, in fact, focusing on that. and over the years, it has collected the big cash pile, as well as free cash flow, more than $4 billion over the last 12 months. it's really interesting, airbnb is not the only company to move a cfo to the cheap business or chief strategy officer.

you're seeing that where we're moving into this broader president/chief investment officer. you saw meta transfer its cfo, david wenner, into a chief strategy officer role. so maybe all of tech reaccelera >> or hope to reaccelerate growth. a lot of it does also seem to be taking a close eye to expenses and thinking efficiently and reorganizing as they face these inflection points. deirdre, we'll see how it plays out. as always, thanks. still ahead, toll brothers has missed on the bottom line just once in the past 20 quarters. near-term options in box say it could move 8% in either direction on earnings and campbell shares are down 28% this year, but is it time to buy the dip? we have the action the story and the trade in "earnings exchange" next. ♪

♪ welcome back. we're tackling shelter, storage and soup in today's earnings exchange. we'll bring you the action, the story and the trade on toll, box and campbells.

jeff is our trader today. good to see you again. we appreciate it. >> you bet. >> let's kick off with toll. the shares hit an all-time yesterday. november was its best month since 2020. wedbush says their typical buyer is still strong. would you buy the stock if basically all-time highs here, 74% year to date? >> kelly, there's momentum, so, yes, i do want to be buyer here. it's fascinating to see. compare to dr horton, it's a different animal. toll brothers more in the luxury market. doing almost 10,000 units a year, average price about $1 million. but what we just saw, since we saw rates move lower, we have seen reprieve in the 30-year mortgage rate. that's now the lowest level since august. that may rejuvenate some of the buyers who were on pause as they look for that second home or another home to move into. i think there is momentum. i think we want to see that continue to move higher. we'll have a sales decline in

revenue, but at the end of the day, coming off three years of covid when everyone was moving to the suburbs. >> who would have thought that it would be all-time highs even with some of the weak activity we're seeing in the market. >> it's hard to believe. >> crazy. >> what about box, 13% decline on the year so far. key bank is watching cloud, ai and higher-tiered pricing plan that they say could boost profit margins. would you do anything here? this flies under the radar. >> i want to be a seller. it's above its 50-day moving average. this market cap at $4 billion, seems like a takeover target, kelly. at the end of the day, if it has not moved higher, dragged and been a laggard all year, the productivity software segment just back in november, it was up about 15%, where box was only half that, 7.5%. it seems cheap on valuation forward pe, but there's a reason why it's cheap. i think it goes lower. i want to stay away from box unless we see someone swipe them and absorb them in the takeover

purchase. >> watching the 50-day line. let's move on to campbells. those shares down 28% this year. deutsche bank focussing on whether pricing can hold or the sales mix will skew lower and watched that planned accusation, as am i, of the brands, rao sauce maker is my favorite. it's received scrutiny. nancy at piper sandler points out soup is one of the few categories we have seen no disinflation after the 20 plus percent inflation during the pandemic. >> i'm a fan of campbell soup. nonetheless, kelly, i think this has been a laggard. look at year to date, one year, three year, five year it's a tough stock to own. i want to be a buyer here. dividend focus, people are excited that they'll pop up to 3.6% in a dividend yield. you talk about package food segment. that was up in the month of

november. everything was up in the month of november. but campbell soup was flat on the month of november. i think there is an opportunity for this to move higher. it seems like it overtook his 50-day moving average. maybe it goes up to $47 on a lack of volume and lack of interest. it has opportunity to trade. but there has to be a catalyst here. i'm looking for that a short covering or back and fill up on the chart. >> there we can see the gap we're talking about. right around 40 bucks. just in the couple seconds left, jeff, 10 year has more than reacted as you expected it would. 417, below 4 is the next move, do you think? >> kelly, in the same way we talked six weeks ago on your program that it was way -- the yields were too high over 5%, i think that was extreme. now the pendulum is swinging the other way. i think it settles back in around 4.25% going into the end of the year, but every stock asset class is welcoming these low r rates. >> jeff, we appreciate it. we'll let you go from k-km financial. cnbc's work summit will be

held tomorrow. hear from experts on how it will transform the future of work and to register, scan that qr code on your screen or visit cnbc events.com. that does it for us. coming up on "power lunch," is salad the future of fast food? the former wing stop ceo thinks so. le'll tell us why. tyr is getting ready. i'll join you on the other side of this break. (♪♪) [van engine] [card reader chimes] (♪♪) [garage door opening] (♪♪) [inaudible chatter] [card reader chimes] (♪♪) (♪♪) (sfx: stone wheel crafting) ♪

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this can mean disruption to supply chains, changing demand for products and shifting regulation. what does this mean for your business, your clients, and your investments? ice offers data and markets that can provide critical insight. manage your climate risk with ice. ♪ welcome to "power lunch," everybody. alongside kelly evans, i'm tyler mathis. coming up, fear of missing out versus the safety trade now that interest rates are up, many people are seeking the safety of bonds, money market funds, cds, treasuries. but those who have missed out on a huge november rally, the people who put their money in those safety havens. >> we'll talk about that. plus, gamers getting a look at the next grand theft auto release. the last version did 1 billion of sales in just