a lot of earnings after the bell tomorrow. >> a big morning for investors who like to stay liquid, particularly campbell soup results and brown foreman, a very different kind of liquid. >> well, that is going to do it for us here an "overtime." >> look out for those liquid assets. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. a major washing from the amex ceo sending shares plummeting, but bank of america sounding much less concerned. plus, china firing back against the latest comments on export controls, as one ratings agency makes a major call on chinese credit. and starbuck's historic losing streak gets worse, and exxon gets ready to unveil production rules. i'm melissa lee, coming to you

live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, guy adami and julie biel. we start with the american express ceo saying consumers may be more skittish. shares down 4% midday. on the other hand, bank of america saying he thinks the consumer is in pretty decent shape. listen to what he told cnbc earlier today. >> for the primed american consumer, they're employed, earning money. now, is inflation tough on certain segments of the economy, absolutely. and that's what you're seeing how i feel versus what i do. and how i feel is, i feel inflation, i'm reading about it, everything is more expensive, what i'm doing, i'm going to concerts, i'm spending money, 7% in november higher than last november, to give you a sense. and so, the way consumers are spending money is leveling out, but all in all, in pretty decent shape. >> so, who has it right?

guy? >> maybe they both do. maybe brian mine than has a window into his client and then american express, obviously, something else. i would obviously tend to favor what american express is saying, and then you sort of listen to what discover said over the summer, capital one. you put together the fact that bank credit is now contracting, i think for the second time in the last 50 years and i don't think it paints a particularly rosy outlook, especially if you think the unemployment rate is going higher in a marked way, which i do. >> we did get the jolts data ahead of the jobs report data, which we're going to get. >> jolts data is very quickly changing before your eyes, and if you are a real wonk on some of these things, you look at resignations data. if people are resigning, if there's less resignations, people are less confident they can resign and go get paid somewhere else. not long ago, there was two jobs for every one applicant out there, now it's about 1.3.

these numbers are changing. and so back to, you know, moynihan versus american express, guy is right. there's two different perspectives here. and i think brian moynihan often, much like jamie dimon does, they have the insight of their own credit card day tashgs but they are talking more big picture on the economy. he also at different times today was quoted talking about the strength of his capital markets business and how it's going to be one of their best quarters ever in equity sales and trading. some of those dynamics is really about where i look at it. and if we remember brian moynihan at times, when jamie has been more bearish or used meteorological terminology about the economy, he's been much more san sanguine. i don't think there's any denying that joblessness is going higher. the impact of the fed is slowly taking hold. what he said in terms of consumers spending down their bala bal balances, that is insight that i think we already kind of knew,

and i think it's important. >> brian moynihan has mostly been right, i mean, in terms of predicting the strength of the consumer, even though stock price has not been great. >> well, that's a different issue. american express is a different customer. a wealthier customer and i think that customer is more acutely aware of what the stock market is doing. so, if you think about where the stock market was september, october, that wasn't great. and then i think the ceo did say that november was sort of better, so -- >> right. >> and i can see that moynihan, if you have less interest in the stock market, then that consumer was doing just fine, they were employed, wages were probably increase, inflation was coming down, gas prices were coming down, so, that makes sense to me, as well. i mean, american express also has had an extraordinary run, so, to give back a little bit, i don't think is a big deal. but it is interesting to me to hear, i mean, moynihan does have an outstanding look into

millions and millions of customers to see what they're doing, and as i said, though, i put all of my bank money -- almost all, in jpmorgan, just because i think they are managing well. >> julie, this underscores the notion it's kind of confusing, and what you want to see at this point in how you read the tea leaves and what your uner the preation of the market is. the other piece of this whole thing is, rates have dropped, and you can uner the pretty that any way you want, as well. it can be a help to the consumer, or maybe it is signaling something worse for the economy. >> yeah, exactly. i think it's like, you can take any piece of data right now and make it tell the narrative that you want, or more importantly, that your book is positioned for, right? and i think that's the same thing here. i agree with karen. i think that the stock market having, you know, such a tough time in september, october, had an impact. i think that's just absolutely true. bank of america has such a unique perspective, because the b breadth of their customer base

is so wide. american express talked about t and es being soft in october, and to me, that's an indication of the consumer being nervous, but businesses, too, and that, i think, is actually pretty problematic. once buzzessinesses get nervous they start to lay people off and that really sinks consumer confidence. we know that. consumer confidence is what's really going to drive us around. >> i guess the question is, though, how long does that softness last? to karen's point, he made it sound like it was sort of a blip, in october, there's a lot of geopolitical going on, so, there could be a pull-back just from that front, from businesses getting just more cautious because of that environment. >> with american express, i mean, you go back over the summer and it started in july with capital one and dfs, a month or so earlier, but the stock reported earnings, the stock fell off a cliff, it went from $175 down to $145 in a straight line. a lot of analysts got on the back of that, downgraded the stock. the run we've seen seemingly is

all on the back of yields going from 5% to 4.15% which i'm sure we'll talk about, so, the fundamentals, i don't think have improved. the stock clearly has, but i don't think the underlying business has. >> and i think this is setting up a great opportunity to throw some of these out on the short run. i think the story is a little different with banks, but as you get into consumer credit, and the things we heard from american express, and we heard this in their earnings call, the end of october-ish, great numbers, beat the street dramatically, net interest income was higher, but they talked about a reserve that was going to have to go higher, and in the fourth quarter. the dynamics around the credit w worthiness, i don't care if it's american express, dfs is different. the lower credit qualify ones are the ones you throw back out. it's been a big siege gh of rel that rates have gone down. it's just a matter of time. if you have a trader, this has been a great opportunity. i think you are setting right.

>> discover financial, capital one, those lower end -- >> you follow the same playbook you had over the summer that guy's talking about. >> julie, you agree with that? >> yeah, no, i agree. i think you are seeing deterioration in credit quality. american express reported the net chargeoff for november and they've seen a doubling year over year. it's still low, historically, but it's not going the right direction. so, i think even at the high end, you're seeing some kind of weakness, some kind of pull-back, and that makes sense, right? we've all kind of spent down that savings cushion and so, where do we go from here, right? it can't really come necessarily from wage growth, so, where is the consumer going to find that incremental dollar? >> so, when i look at the jpmorgan or bank of america, i look at, one part of their business. to me, there's a couple of things that are a little more -- have a little more reason for optimism, which, i think, is the m&a activity, which is -- was more of -- it was just dead, this was a terrible year for the

first, i don't know however many months. that would be nice to see a little gain there, because it's really been terrible. and then they could start to maybe get a little more momentum and have it be -- i think next year will be stronger. as long as rates find a level. whatever that level may be. >> even at this level. >> even at this level. >> what if it's a level that's even lower, but for other reasons? we talk about that all the time. maybe rates are fgoing to go lower because the economy is in terrible shape. james gorman said when the flood gates will open when -- >> he's jealous of the next ceo, because m and a will come back. >> his timing was good. think about -- think where we came into office and think about when he left, i mean, he timed it really well. i'll say this, black rock had a piece today talking about, expect more volatility in the bond market. if you think yields are going to stay low -- i'm paraphrasing, you are probably going to be wrong. now, with that said, i didn't think yields were going below

4.5%, let alone $44.15%. carter talked about that. i'm not sure we're out of the w woods. >> he put out a note saying sell bonds. >> i did today. >> you got out? >> on the way here. >> on the way here. >> yes. >> after you read carter's note? >> no, i didn't see carter's note, but i just -- i feel like this move has been -- >> just as dramatic as the last one. >> yes. and i think -- you know, some of the underlying issues that led to the last one, you know, government funding, we have not solved that, right? so i mean, unless you are very bearish on recession and you think that the economy's really going to slow, inflation's really going to come down, be long bonds. i'm not of that school. >> but there are some asset classes that have been interest rate sensitive that i think are worth continuing to follow through on different than the fixed income market. i think yields have gone down, agree with karen, if it's the treasury refunding announcement

that's coming in january, the deficit spending gone mad, less central bank buying, but you have utilities, staples, big swaths of the economy that tippic little are defensive during a slowing period, which i think were assaulted and you haven't totally taken some of that back. utilities are up 15%, if you look at the xlu over the last kind of four to six weeks. a dramatic run back, but i think people are starting to question whether a lot of these energy utilities could actually survive a higher rate environment. i think there's been a major reassessment. i think utilities into next year, you are buying pull-backs here. big bank ceos heading to cap t itol hill to testify tomorrow. emily wilkins has more. >> hey, melissa. bank ceos are going to be making the case why a pending increase in capital could hurt the economy. that proposed rule from the fed, you know, it's meant to decrease risk, but it's hit really strong push-back. in testimony prepared for

tomorrow, jvp pamie dimon put i this way. "more is not more in this case. ironically, a proposal to mitigate risk will create even more risk in the financial system." and several republican lawmakers on the committee told me this week, they want to hear from the ceos, what impact those potential capital increases will have on communitien banks, on small businesses, and on consumers. democratic senators, most of them have told me they plan to ask ceos about other topics, including climate change, derisking their energy portfolios, and if they are making use of a new instant payment system from the federal reserve. the hearing starts tomorrow morning, should be a very interesting day, melissa. >> emily, thank you. for more on tomorrow's hearing, let's turn to the ceo of kbw, a steeple company. tom, great to have you back. >> great to be with you. >> what do you think is going to come across tomorrow? >> what i think is going to come across, first of all, is that the crisis of the spring, is

behind us. and that it's been an era of increasing stability, stability in deposits, stakt in eastakt i. they're really going to talk about how the three bank failures were for problems at those three banks. the second piece is the near-term outlook. the near-term outlook is going to be one of a stable, profitable energy, but one that's got negative leverage. the third piece that i hope does come up is the regulatory reaction to these bank failures, which has been -- they call it gold plated. very strong. and really, it's going to derisk more of the banking industry, which is going to tilt the balance of the banking industry's competition with nonbanks. nonbanks have been growing at faster than 10% a year. they've been taking more and more market share from banks. the private credit area. and as the regulators are -- are increasing regulations on banks, they're actually standing up the nonbanks.

and so, i think -- i hope that dynamic comes up. >> do you think that private credit, that area, is -- there's been so much chatter, you know -- >> bubble. >> right, it's a bubble, and there's a risk here, you're saying, perhaps? >> we research the companies, the ones that are public. some are terrific, but anything in financial services, in my opinion, that grows a lot faster than the economy, usually hits a catchup moment. that doesn't mean that it's going to be a crisis, but all the players in private credit aren't going to be successful. so, i think it will be interesting to see how it plays out. i do think private credit is here to stay, so, it's a real industry, but i think that the regulators have a decision on how fast they want it to grow. you keep coming down hard on the banks, it will grow faster. >> silicon valley bank would have passed the stress test if they were under the 16 largest banks. >> correct. >> what good is a stress test if the 16th largest bank would have

failed in the first place? >> all of them were investment grade in the weeks before the failure. the fdic reports afterwards talked about first republic bank had a one rating for liquidity before it failed. you are 100% right. it was a bank run. and the changes that are being made have nothing to do with the failure. the one way to fix it is deposit insurance reform and in may, i testified in front of congress, really believing that the targeted approach to change deposit insurance to reduce the too big to fail thinking so depositors don't run like that, that is what we need, and that -- that effort is stalled in congress. i'd love to see that change, and that is what's needed. that would fix what you just said. >> a couple things. i'm married to a private credit guy, so, i hope there's at least room for one. but the other thing is, i feel like banks are going to push harder, push back harder on this than almost anything i've seen in a really, really long time.

and i think they also feel like they're going to be heard somewhat and that they will find some relief with -- versus the worst case see naur owe. >> this is the real deal. when i started in this business, there were 14,000 banks. today there are 4,700. just to unpack that for you. 97% of the banks in america are below $10 billion. the top 25 have 60% of the asset -- of the deposits. there are 115 banks in the middle. these banks are working hard to compete with the big banks. we want that to happen, because we'll have choices and we won't just have four big banks. if deposit insurance reform, in my opinion, doesn't happen, there's going to be tremendous pressure on those banks to consolidate, and the harder they push down these regulations to $100 billion, which, by the way, really means $75 billion, as they do that, they're going to actually encourage the activity they probably don't want. >> what does this mean, though, for the consumer finance companies that needed funding

that was right here and now it's here? so, back to the point about, you know, nonbanks versus banks, to me, banks get so much stronger in this environment, because again, they have the funding, they have the balance sheets, they have the deposits. all these companies, and there's so many of them, we talk about buy now, pay later, we talk about a lot of the fintech that's not really fintechie and it's really just a business that's stood up on 0% interest rates. thoughts on that? because i think most of those businesses are going out of business. >> here's the thing. i listened to your pryor conversation. so much of what we're talking about is -- resolves around the aftershock of the covid support. as the covid support is being withdrawn, as the fed shrinks its balance sheet, liquidity is getting tougher, a lot of that liquidity was on the bank's balance sheets. it is now fleeing. there comes a moment where it will reset. we think that reset moment's happening in the next six months. it's happening actually right now. so, the banking industry is going to reset their deposits and then they're going to be able to grow again.

i wouldn't count them out unless the regulation is so strong that their hamstrung and aren't in a fair fight with the rest of the finance sector, so -- so i think that's a big issue. the other thing that's going on is, we're going to, in six months time, this deposit situation and rate situation, i think, will be behind us. then we're going to be talking about credit. and i think your conversation earlier about, are we returning to normal or is it going to be a little bit more than that? the market now is thinking soft landing, we get back to normal. if it's more than that -- >> more than that, more losses? >> yeah, if we get a harder landing than what we have -- i also think the market's way too optimistic on the fed pivoting. and i just don't -- the fed didn't raise rates super fast to cut them really fast. their outcome, how history is going to judge them is, did they ensure the defeat of inflation? i think they're going to stick with it. >> just quickly, what will be the trigger, in your view, to

something going wrong in private credit? >> in private credit? i think the whole thing revolves around unemployment. i think it starts one employment. and look, there are a lot of excellent players in private credit. i'm just saying, for an industry to stand up this quickly, they all won't get it right. and there will be winners and losers, just like there is in the banking industry. i'm just saying, when i look at the economy growing, we think it's going to be 2% and private credit growing 10%, or more, it just says to me, wow, if there's a growth mandate for managers and private credit and financial services, that's usually when there's a problem. >> tom, great to see you. thank you for coming by. >> thank you. >> julie biel, what do you think? >> yeah, i completely agree with everything he's saying. incentives are so important and to have these businesses growing as quickly as they have been. and they've never been back-tested, right, in a recession? so, you have no idea the quality of their models -- i understand

that if things are positive or there's a soft landing they are probably okay, but what if there isn't? and i think this idea that everything resovolves around employment is critical. we could have more velocity of unemployment a year ago when people had lots of savings. they don't have the savings right now. if people lose their jobs, they take action immediately. our propensity to spend that marginal dollar is so high. so, all the points are critical, but the most being it all really revolves around unemployment. >> sounds like the whole hearing about raising the capital requirements probably won't be enacted for a long time, so, 2024, great year for banks? >> first of all, you've had a great year for banks in the last six weeks. >> yeah, right. >> and i'm not sure we're going to have the same environment. i think there is a window with lower rates. takes a lot of pressure off. also means some of the asset flight kind of reverses. i think you have a case where you look at bank of america,

citi bank, two of the biggest balance sheets in the world, have rallied, i don't know, 23% since that cpi number? are in a place where they are paying north of 3% divs. in terms of kind of the capital dynamics of what the banks can do, their balance sheets, what they can give back to investors, that core business, i think, has room to be appreciated. i think everything we're talking about on credit is stuff to play out that's not going to be great for these banks. we haven't seen them have to put reserves aside. and i think, yes, you stay longer. coming up, watching toll brothers on the move afterhours. shares are higher after results. details from the quarter and how to trade the home builders, next. and cvs swing. shares jumping after the pharmacy chain announced a major change coming for drug prices. how the new model will effect rehe"ft ne , wn asmoy" turns.

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i'm here to thank you. welcome back to "fast money." we've got an earnings alert on toll brothers. the home builder reported a beat on the top and bottom line. let's get to kristina partsinevelos with more on the quarter. >> it wasn't just the top and bottom line beat, it was rosy commentary from the ceo in the recent earnings report.

the ceo saying he was, quote, uncouraged by recent drops in mortgage rates and buyers continue to be drawn to new homes. he expects lower rates and easing inflation into the spring selling season. the head of the home builder also say the outlook for new homes, the new home market remains bright in the long-term and toll brothers is well positioned amid pricing trends we are seeing so far. toll brothers projects they will deliver almost 9,800 to 10,000 units over the next fiscal year or so, as they continue to reduce homes in their backlog. that's down 19% from last year, which is a good thing, when they are clearing inventory. shares are up about 2% in the green right now. melissa? >> kristina, thank you. yeah, the outlook for 2024, looking pretty good, which is great, right? >> yeah, look, i -- i'm somebody that is -- has been pretty negative on the home builder

sector and think we've seen its peak for a long time. and it doesn't mean that there isn't demand and there aren't supply issues. inventory is down 14% year over year. this is very much in favor of higher prices. i think, though, and if you believe that rates can't go a lot lower than 4%. if rates go down to 3.5% this is going to overshoot to the upside. no question about it. but if we start to rebound back in rates after a 30% move in toll brothers since october 24th, are you chasing the home builders here? i'm not. >> i agree with tim on this one. and again, we were very constructive on these stocks. for the longest time, we said there would be a point in ten-year yields where home builders would no longer look good. september was that level. rates are coming back down now. this is backward looking the quarter, i know, please don't at me. it's a fantastic quarter. but you heard tom, it's all about employment. and if you think the unemployment rate is going to spike, which i do, i think karen agrees, tim, probably, as well,

then it's going to be a very hard sell to continue to be long the home builders into next year. >> agree. agree. completely. i just feel like, i mean, it sort of must be frustrating as -- they put up fantastic numbers, right? >> good outlook. >> good leverage, doing, i mean, these are not the home builders going back 15 years. but i just think that, unless we get a material, material movement in rates, for only a good reason and those two things don't really seem to be likely to happen together, then it's going to be sort of tough going against sentiment, anyway, for the stocks. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. cvs on the mend. an overhaul on its drug pricing policies sends shares soaring. how the company hopes to flip the pharmacy script, next. plus, china slaps back. tensions heating up over chip export restrictions. more on the u.s. semi stance and how a chinese retail ipo is feeling the pressure. ahead. you're watching "fast money,"

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welcome back to "fast money." shares of cvs jumping after the chain announced plans to switch up how it sets its drug prices. the pricing overhaul revealed today during the company's first investor day in two years. the new policy will go into effect in 2025, will use a simpler formula to set prescription prices based on the purchase price, a limited markup and a flat pharmacy services company. pr cvs's ceo telling cnbc earlier today the change could help

increase transparency to the consumer. >> there is an increased scrutiny over the cost of pharmacy and drugs, and as a company, you know, as i said, we're committed to lowering the overall total cost of health care. we will have that transparent pricing at the pharmacy counter, and through the entire health care chain. >> could this new pricing model flip the script on the entire pharmacy space? they also gave outlook, karen, which -- >> yes, i thought it was good. >> better than expected. >> that's why the stock moved. and it's not an expensive stock. i don't own it now, i have owned it in the past. it is -- it is -- it's something i would look at because it is inexpensive. i do find, though, this idea of transparency, i find ceos do not love transparency when they have a business that is not transparent and tends to provide bigger margins, maybe, than one that is, but we know they're pressured by the mark cuban and others, as well, so, that may be

just, you know, her embracing reality, this is how it's going to be. i found that the discussion about transparency, not particularly transparent itself, because this is happening in 2025, right? i wasn't -- they didn't lay out enough details, but i do think the stock is cheap, i mean, it's a free cash flow machine, the earnings are, i mean, they were talking about mid $8 or so, so, it's hardly expensive. probably worth a look again. >> do you think we'll actually find out what cvs pays for a drug? you know they're going to add the markup fee and the pharmacy services fee and, i don't know, seems like something they probably wouldn'tdy you dy ivul. >> ah, no. >> not at all. julie, what did you make of this move? >> yeah, i mean, i think they should have called it cost plus mrs. it is clearly and indication of, we are transparent yonttranspar

competitors are doing, the details were thin because they don't actually want to be that transparent. this is a good place in their business and it's been an important generator of profitability where they've struggled to get their assortment correct. and i think going forward, you would expect that they're going to figure out ways for it to still be a little bit on his kated. we would love to see more transparency across the supply chain for prescription health care, but i'll believe it when i see it. >> nice timing, too, ahead of the elections. that's all i have to say. coming up, keep your chips close. tensions heating up as beijing responds to the latest u.s. stance on semi exports. plus a cut to chinese credit. and if that's not enough talk about china, we're rounding the conversation out with the shein squeeze. the regulatory pressure facing this retailer and how its ipo may hang in the balance. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is bag right after this. missed a moment of "fast?"

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks closing mixed to end the

day. the dow down 80 points. the nasdaq managed a small gain. shares of apple hitting a four-month high after its iphone supplier foxconn citing improved consumer demand. apple up 49% this year. the stock closing back above $3 trillion market cap. and shares of microstrategy continuing to climb. that stock rallying 10% already this week as the crypto rebound gained steam. as of november 30th, microstrategy holds more than 174,000 bitcoins bought at an average price of around $30,000. not bad. meanwhile, two stories highlighting the growing tensions between the u.s. and china. beijing on defense after the commerce secretary that more controls on tech exports to china are coming. plus, shein coming under fire for its labor practices. cnbc's eunice yoon is here to

break it down, here with the latest -- >> yay, welcome. >> it's great to have you here. stateside. but almost not surprising that beijing has fired back at the comments. they were very strong. >> yeah. >> when she was talking about nvidia and if they make a chip that gets around the controls, they're going to go after that. >> right, right. so, the government overall is feeling that the u.s. export controls are meant to contain china. so, that's been the narrative that we've been hering for quite some time. overnight, state media said this is a way that the secretary and the u.s. is depriving u.s. companies, particularly chip companies, from short-term and long-term revenues. so, they're trying to drive a wedge between u.s. business and u.s. government. and i think that longer-term, what you're seeing is that the economy is so fragile right now, and that if you want to look at

what the industries are of the future, they are a.i., they're technology, and there's a big question mark as to whether or not china would be able to develop their own industries into -- kind of replacement industries from, say, manufacturing or investment in what china relies on today. >> yeah, meantime, i think shanghai asked microsoft to beef up its a.i. presence in shanghai, and sort of interesting to see this back and forth because, you know, china needs that industry, obviously, but the u.s., you know, we're trying to hold back there. >> yeah, and i think the messaging is really mixed. it's just, you know, we see xi jinping saying that foreign businesses are all welcome, but then -- i feel like almost every day, we hear about exit bans, people being detained, and it's not only americans, but it's japanese, it's, you know, other europeans or other -- just anybody from other countries, and so, that just really undermines the overall investment sentiment. >> and we were talking briefly

about this earlier, the fact that china is so intent on being a financial senter in the world, and so, at times it's such in conflict with everything that we're reading. leaving aside the geopolitics, china, in terms of the consistency of the markets and the investment in the markets and even on some level policy around supporting a market-friendly environment, and yet, it seems that xi jinping doesn't really care about that in ways i think predecessors have. they are kind of building to this point, and we're moving in reverse. >> right. and the thing is that, the expectation has always been that china's practical. at the end of the day, china will be practical and whatever the politics are, they're going to make the decisions that are best for the markets and for business. but that is now really in question. and we see in the past, we would see a lot of discussion within the party, because it's a one-party system, but there are a lot of factions within the party. so, you have the reformers, or folks that want the u.s. business at they would make

their argument. these days, it's just not the case anymore. you don't hear the corn verve sagss going. it's just whatever president xi wants. and those voices that you would hear who would be acting as a counterpart to the overarching direction just aren't really there anymore. or maybe don't field emboldened. and there is a joke that we were talking about a little bit before, that people behind president xi's back have been describing him as the desell ray or the, because he's been bringing the economy back in time. so, you know, it's just nobody really feels as though they can actually say that without getting detained. >> i'm sure that's not an easy thing to say. >> prior to his trip to san francisco, we, the united states, send janet yellen, antony blinken, john carry, gina raimondo, and each time, they came back, great, very constructive, and then a week or so later, something escalated, and that seems to be what's happening now. so, you're there. what is the u.s./china

relations, in your opinion? >> i mean, it's hard. on the one hand, you see the u.s. is making this outreach, they feel that there is -- it's necessary to have a conversation, in order to have that -- the bat phone to make a phone call in case there is a crisis. and i think what i'm concerned about is that because there isn't as much flexibility built in the system, because most people are just trying to second guess what president xi wants, that there is more potential for a miscalculation, because everyone on the lower levels is trying to get what president xi wants, and so, because of that, they act more aggressive and more extreme. and you see that in various industries and various levels. >> eunice, thank you. good to see you. eunice yoon. turning now to the shein ipo. we have more now on the congressional response. gabriel? >> thank you, melissa. you know, with shein, as soon as they started to get bigger, congress started to pay more attention to them. so, as they have grown, that

scrutiny has intensifies and lawmakers are ramping it up. so, we spoke with conthe congressman out of missouri, and he told us he wants the s.e.c. to block the ipoa altogether, ad if they don't, he wants to introduce legislation that would actually ban them from going public in the u.s. or ban the import of their products into the u.s. so, this is going to be a major road block for shein if they're going to still move forward with this ipo. >> is there an actual securities law, a rule that he will cite in getting the s.e.c. or trying to get the s.e.c. to ban this? or is this just going to be a specific example, which doesn't seem like, you know, would make a great case, great foundation for a block. >> yeah, so they -- you know, congress has legislative authority on their side. they could write a bill that would try to get this passed. whether they would get it past the line remains to be seen, but earlier this year, the s.e.c. implemented new regulatory requirements for companies that have either the majority of

their operations in china, or are based in china entirely, chinese-founded companies, so, that's going to come up in shein's process now with their s-1 or f-1 if they file. they're going to be required to disclose additional items about their connections to china, how the government might be, you know, interacting with their business, might be controlling their business, you know, how their supply chain is going to be under control of china. so, all of that stuff is going to come out in this review process that could take a year, could take longer. and something could come out then that could cause the s.e.c. to pump the brakes on it, and then if not, congress could try to come up with a law, but whether or not it's going to get past the line remains to be seen. >> gabrielle, thank you. again, all of this sort of underscores sort of the tension here, you know, looking at china, what are they hiding, what kind of connections to the chinese government will this company have that sells $4.99 bathing suits for kids. >> this is a company, we're worried about the consumer right

now this is a company that we're not worried about the demand. they're killing it. and there's demand globally for them. and so, this is the whole story. and can you invest in these chinese companies that are global economies that haven't historically traded here, traded in hong kong, traded around the world? it's setting up for a moment that i think is not right now, and even though, you know, i stay in this kind of bang your head against the wall range with alibaba and trade it around, you know, that stock, while others and even the rest of emerging markets are breaking out on lower dollar and what not is trading near 52-week lows. i think this is a story that's going to continue to play out and i think it's a story that probably underscores why most investors don't feel they feed to invest here. >> yeah, i sort of shows you how there can be a tit for tat, if these governments wanted there to be a tit for tat, julie. >> yeah, it definitely feels like siblings arguing at this point. and it's hard to keep track of where the real linchpins are.

if you look on the semiconductor side, this is the place where china is absolutely the weakest. they do not have the capacity or ability to produce the kinds of chips that the likes of nvidia are making, and they can't do a.i. with those chips. they recognize they have the programming talent, because we're all addicted to tiktok, they have the right people in place, but it's really difficult to do it if you don't have the hardware capacity. shein is a little bit the same story. >> guy, you're addicted to tiktok. >> i'm not on the tiktok. i don't have that application. >> guy and tiktok. that can be tough to step away from. >> i think you're going to -- you're going to be embarrassed if i defeat you in tic-tac-toe. >> who one will have to know. >> fxi, tim will point this out correctly, we're getting close to levels we saw in october of last year, which was the same level we made about 13 years prior. that doesn't trade particularly well and i think that's a bit of a warning sign, as well. coming up, it's red cup season for starbucks. why shares need a little colt of

caffeine right now. that trade and more whenfa ne rur.s "st

all right, tandy, what's it gonna be, the drink made from whatever was laying around, or the one made with your drizzly haul? drizly! stock up today, sip well, tomorrow. drizly. welcome back to "fast money." starbucks in a slump since mid-november. shares today extending their record losing streak to a 12th consecutive down day. at a more bgan stanley conferen starbucks' ceo saying that growth will be back-end loaded next year. tim? >> you are getting some

follow-through on people that are seeing what this -- this fiscal fourth quarter looks like, and the dynamic into '24. you've seen a couple of eps cuts. but again, the comps they showed last quarter were a big surprise in the u.s. that's part of what drove the shares up near $107. stock's pulled down 12%, 13% since that point as has been noted. 12 straight down days. and rsi of 27, blah, blah, blah. i have done nothing in my starbucks position over the last kind of four, five months, after receiving into the previous round of strength. i'd love to buy it. $95 is an important level. i think you're going to get it lower. if you look at the eps and the dynamics into next year, you can do the math. this is a 25, you know, forward pe, and not something that's terribly cheap here. i think it gets cheaper. >> $4 a share can barely buy you a cup of coffee. >> my goodness. i bought a cup of coffee out in vegas at a starbucks location inside a casino and paid $7.99 for a regular coffee. not the almond latte --

>> that guy buys. >> with the soy milk. yummy. >> couple things. very well defined uptrend since 2020ish when it was a $58 stock. very defined downtrend since the all-time high. this is going to be resolved, i think to the downside. and people here that noise, well -- tis the season. check -- look at this. >> big gathering. >> nasdaq the place to be. >> always throwing a party. >> parties as going on around here. >> just saying. they're here to see you, mel. coming up, exxon getting ready to reveal a new spending plan. will it help the stock get out of its smp?lu we have the latest next. more "fast money" in two.

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2027. this according to reuters. and to address the impact to reduce demand for motor fuel and the rising adoption of evs. exxon has been sort of just out there since 2022, same levels, not doing too much. >> i thought it was breaking out to the upside. it certainly appeared that way. then the deal was announced and the chevron deal and all these big cap integrated names have sold off. but i will say this, on valuation, it's not going to get a lot cheaper than it is now, and i still think the energy space is in play. >> it seems exxon has always been, you know, entranced by production growth and it's a story they've had a big issue around. they've got this guyana asset, which is the most exciting asset in the world. the fact they're going to be increasing cap x around it, they need the technology to actually add 700,000 barrels to the existing lot, is important. and as someone that believes that these companies are run differently and the dividends are sound and are going to be paid, this is the real question for these stocks. you're at, again, a major kind of support level and i think

you're going to hold. >> karen? >> it is interesting, just from when the stock peaked, just literally dollar for dollar, dollar invested in each oil and exxon, i know it's not entirely just an oil place, is exactly the same. that was sort of surprising to me. i would have thought it underperformed. it hasn't. they are literally within 50 cent s of each other. so it's cheap here. the whole space has been cheap, though, and it's surprising to me how it is just sluggishly cheap, i think, for next year. it's a good place to be. >> by the way, do not move david faber's interview with darren woods, thursday at 9:00 a.m. only on cnbc. up next, final trades.

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time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. julie biel? >> i'm still pretty chicken about the home builders, so, i like simpson. >> tim? >> i think there's room to run, citi bank with its 3.6 div yield. citi bank. >> karen? >> yes.

i like this bond move for the equity market, but i think it's too far too fast so i have shorted the tlt again. >> guy? >> right before our collective eyes, ibm, six-year high. >> interesting. >> wow. >> is that a haiku? >> no. >> proud father. >> thank you for watching my mission is simple. to make you money. work and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> hello. welcome to mad money. welcome to mad money. my job, not just entertaining but to teach you. call me or tweet me. this keeps making mistakes. it is unnerving how it