i just think, i just hope it does. [theme music] ♪ good morning happy friday welcome to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum >> and i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines european equities trade in the green with the dax at all-time highs europe's luxury names go up market as investors respond to encouraging significaals from bg as they keep monetary policy

targeted. and vivendi shares pop on the cac 40 index replacing fintech group. and european finance ministers may need to meet again to pass a bill after failing to reach an agreement in marathon talks. >> on the five remaining, we can find room by the end of the year which requires a lot of work we stand ready to work very hard to get an agreement by the end of 2023. good morning welcome to "street signs." let's get you caught up on markets. it is a big day today with the nfp figure economists are expecting an uptick over the 190,000 which

was last month's numbers it will be big because it will determine what the market expect with rate cuts as of now, there is a 66% chance of a rate cutting cycle in the u.s. as of march this number is key today in general, we have seen yesterday on wall street with the better close across the majors nasdaq with a good day in led by alphabet and nvidia and amd. we will talking more about that in the show. the hand over from asia was mixed. nikkei reporting that the bank of japan may pitvot from the interest rate policy we have more from the chinese authorities in the last half hour indicating they are willing to put more fiscal stimulus in 2024 that has led things around just in the last 30 or 45 minutes it is having an impact on the european markets all of the sectors which has

exposure to china have started to perform better in the last half hour. let's talk about the boards. this is the dax up .25%. 40 points higher today we are seeing siemens energy close to the bottom of the index. industrial names continue to come under pressure. the industrial data recently has been weak out of germany on the flip side, the cac 40 up .20%. luxury names putting in a good show this morning, especially after the news from china. demand stimulus is positive for the luxury space ftse 100 is up 30 points today, .40% higher week to date, let's look back at the european indices have traded ftse mib is up .20%. a lot of volatility in the

commodity space. it has had an impact cac 40 is leading the gains up 1.8% for the week. lu luxury, again, one sector in focus. the dax is up 1.7% actually, it is making all-time record highs we talk about the weak manufacturing back drop, but the index, itself, is performing well in germany. let's switch to travel and leisure. touhy was very positive with the results and strong profit margins. we have seen a turn around in travel in the course of the last couple days. retail is up 1%. one name performing well this morning. and on the flip side, real estate is down .20% and utilities down .8% julianna joumanna, we have the

non-farm payroll report this afternoon. we will detail that in a moment. here is the picture of the u.s. futures at the early hour. dow looking to add 50 points s&p and nasdaq opening flat as investors wait for the report. it follows a strong as set for risk assets with the s&p bouncing back after three sessions in the red. the dow snapping a three-day losing streak. we will talk about the moves and what drove the tech sector higher later in the program. on to the non-farm payroll report the u.s. economy is expected to add 190,000 jobs in november that is up 150,000 in october. earnings are expected to pick up month on month this could undermine investor confidence that the fed is adjusting its rate path. we have george joining us. george, thank you for being with us today are we in a good news is good

news paradigm when it comes to the market i ask this because it is important to understand how markets will react to the non-farm payroll report or are we in a good news is bad news paradigm >> we are in a good news is bad news paradigm. if we get disappointment, i expect rate cuts will come sooner and markets to jump up. >> what are you watching in today's non-farm payroll report closely? which metric is most important >> for me, it is obviously the headline number, the non-farm payroll, because that is what the market reacts to here. i will watch the payrolls because i expect them to cap 30k. the data we have from other services like pmi suggests that

manufacturing is shedding jobs generally, the forecast is more upbeat versus the data we are looking at here. >> we had the adp number come in lower than expected. do you think that means the actual whisper number in the lower than what wear are reportg with the 180,000 estimate? >> the adp has proven it is not best prediction of the non-farm payroll. in this case, i expect to see more weakness than the fed is anticipating we are in a slowdown forecasters have a lag more or less in the showdown, they tend to miss estimates and tend to be overconfident. >> george, a lot of people in the past couple months -- i'll be honest -- i haven't heard of the rule a lot of people are talking about the sam rule when the unemployment rate rises

half a point from the most recent low from the three-month average, the economy is in recession. we are not there yet i believe we are two-thirds away to that half point all signs are pointing to the unemployment rate ticking higher do you think the u.s. is currently on track to enter into rece recession? >> you know what, no i'm not in the camp of the u.s. rece recession. look, we're a little bit playing with the number here if it is zero or just above zero, we call it recession it is technical. we are seeing a low down into the first quarter next year. the economy is driving a deficit of 7%. they are doing this to avoid recession going into the election i think they're going to succeed in this effort. >> george, it feels like the

market has become a lot more confident in recent weeks that inflation is under control that's part of the reason that investors are so sure, it seems, the fed is going to pivot next year how much of the confidence comes down to oil and we have seen the major retreat in the oil price with the big upside risk to inflation? >> well, with oil trading below 70, it is easy to be confident the opec plus don't want to keep it down there. they are more comfortable with the range from 70 to 90 and a little bit higher. i would not be surprised if we see more opec cuts in the near future because it's all about the saudi balance sheet. having said that, markets have been a little bit running ahead of themselves. if you see what forecasters are seeing versus what is implied by

the bond markets, generally people are a little bit more apprehensive a lot of forecasters out there are saying rate cuts are probably coming closer to the end of the year rather than the h1 which is what a lot of bond traders are assuming >> fascinating let's see how it plays out, george thank you for joining us on the show the chief economists from mazars. the china political bureau held a meeting to discuss the outlook for fiscal policy in 2024 to boost domestic demand. these comments came out in the last half hour it is significant. we are getting a taste for what chinese authorities are thinking and planning ahead for 2024. quite a big deal that will be a focus coming out of china as we speak, there is the

minister meeting in brussels let's listen to the german finance minister for a moment. calibrate measures in the right way. we want to maintain room for maneuver and investment and new needs. if i think about the defense we have not yet come to the understanding of the numbers which are sufficient on the other side, i'm worried about the corrective arm of the stability and growth perspective. some have the understanding with the excessive deficit procedure. i'm convinced that excessive deficits needs to be reduced

we have to differentiate those and germany rowproposed a table yesterday of the existing flexibility under the corrective arm so there is no need for the change of the legal text now we are all considering and we will meet again very soon >> do you think a deal before christmas is likely? >> it is possible. yesterday, le marie spoke about that at 90%. [ speaking in a global language >> this was the german finance minister speaking on the sidelines of the ecofin

conference we will speak with silvia in a moment they cannot seem to come to agreement on the fiscal rules in the coming years that is why the talks have been going on there is a stalemate we just heard from the finance minister excessive deficits must be reduced, not excused. back to markets. luxury is doing well we spoke about the comments coming from the chinese fiscal authority suggesting more stimulus in 2024 that is why luxury is doing well today and europe with chinese demand being a big driver. minors are seeing a bounce this morning with the exception of anglo american bhp trading up in the ftse 100 let's talk more about anglo american and why it is down 4.4% the company wants to cut costs by the end of next year

highlighting a cap in reduction of 4%. in the trading update, it expects leaver unit costs despite high inflation and $2 billion total cap ex cut in the next three years. vivendi is replacing worldline on the cac 40. charlotte joins us to breakdown the moves and what it means for the index. charlotte, we discussed worldline last month on the show perhaps no surprise. what does it mean for vivendi? >> it is interesting for vivendi. they entered the cac 40 in june. the quickest comeback on the cac 40 history the shares are flat on the year. they have completed acquisition a couple of weeks ago. they are the world's third

largest book publisher it has media like the magazines and television and radio a big player in the field. worldline has had a rough patch. shares down 60% this year. in october, they announced a profit warning sending shares down almost 60% and they gained a little bit back on the shares. certainly they had difficulty. the profit warning with the slowdown in consumer spending particularly in germany. it is something we heard from competitors with specific issues at worldline and tech crashes. very visible when they are trying to regain trust from investors. payments in french supermarkets and mcdonald's that were not working. those had a joint venture in germany where they were taking on new customers with money laundering crackdown all of the elements impacted the

business that was expected because of that a couple of other companies with potential on the list to join in were announcing they were studying spinoffs of part of the business that is why they are not entering the cac 40. vivendi is entering on that front. it is sending shares up on vivendi on the news. >> charlotte, stay with us put on your spanish hat. we have breaking news. market investments that dropped the candidacy which means that the spanish finance minister has the sufficient support of new government to become the next head of the european investment bank according to the belgium eib that is a spanish newspaper

reporting. now calvino has sufficient support. she was the finance minister of spain. now another question mark with the spanish government >> it is interesting she was a champion of the spanish news over the economy the last few months. strong reputation in brussels. what does it mean for sanchez who won the mandate? the run-up to replace calvino is said to be more to the left of her. there could be a bit of a change in policy and more left-wing policies on the table for spain. >> charlotte, thank you for sticking with us for the spanish news and what is happening in the cac 40 really appreciate your guidance on both fronts let's go out to silvia who joins us from brussels

s silvia, you spoke to christian lindner. give us a sense of what is happening on the groupnd and wha the german finance minister had to say >> reporter: before i get there and i know you were talking about this, i was actually next to the belgium finance minister who was breaking the news there is a consensus on putting forward the calvino of the eib this is opening the door for calvino to take on this role it will be interesting to see what vestager will do next her mandate is coming to an end in october of 2024 when it comes to other news from this meeting of finance ministers, which is very busy, the focus has been on fiscal rules. as you pointed out yesterday,

there were expectations that the finance ministers to perhaps reach a deal on reforms yesterday night. that was not the case. they were in the meetings for eight hours and finished at 3:00 a.m. the main sticking points remain the same on the one hand, you have countries such as germany which wants more ambition with fiscal prudence and others wanting public investment. i had a chance to speak to the german finance minister moments ago. he was outlining they moved from the 90% done deal to 92% he is slightly more negative than the french finance minister who said 95% is a done deal. when it comes to germany, christian lindner says he still

has specific points of concern with the fiscal rules and those will have to be addressed in the coming days. let's show you the remarks from the german finance minister. >> silvia, we have those ready for a couple of minutes time we will come back to that tape and silvia's comments and questions to the finance ministers. silvia is standing ready to brussels a busy breaking news in europe this morning from brussels it is not just european finance ministers on the show. big week for a.i. news where arjun will join us next to breakdown the latest $14 girl, what is you doing? but making smoothies is such a hassle. not with blendjet. what's going on? shhhh. hold that thought. just pour in some milk, throw in some frozen fruit, and in 20 seconds you've got yourself a nutritiou and delicious smoothie.

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warm welcome back to "street signs. let's look at the wall street action yesterday we saw the magnificent seven rally more than 2% a really strong day for the tech sector s&p and dow broke three-day losing streaks

one of the big reasons is the tech sector with alphabet shares surged in trade with the a.i. model gemini as it looks to make up ground. amd shares saw a boost with microsoft and meta among others committed to use the new year chip arjun, i don't know what you want to pick up on first alphabet or the amd story. it seems there is so much hype and it is translating into real gains for the stocks >> i'll pick up on both stories. amd first. this is interesting. the big winner is nvidia up more than 200%. everyone looking at what chips will power training models and chatgpt. nvidia has been the only game in town with product, but the stock that investors are loving. amd has done well this year.

the mi-300x is the competitor to the nvidia chip. microsoft is among those committed to using the chips it is unclear how the performance translates into the real world this is the next big tip if this proves to be successful, it could put pressure on nvidia in the chip space for a.i. >> analysts put out a note saying they expect amd total market share is 10% on the back of the latest chip they produce. what amd was saying is it is not about stealing market share from nvidia, but because this market is growing rapidly, there is enough space for both of them is what they are saying >> there has been a shortage of nvidia chips because of the demand there is a lot of demand and not enough supply. amd will jump into the space and chips will be snapped up by those willing to train some of

the artificial intelligence models google and gemini will require a lot of chips to train. investors have been waiting a long time for this what is google's big answer? this is it >> how does it compare give us detail what do we know about gemini how does it stack up against a.i. >> this is better than a.i. on the market we will see this gemini model infused into every google product and search to gmail. they will sell it through the cloud. gemini will position it as an a.i. for everything. general purpose a.i. to do multiple tasks a pro version they will sell, but gemini nano. this can run on device or smartphone a lot of a.i. applications we use are downloaded from the cloud to the phone that is happening on the cloud

we use the application on our phone. what google is saying with nano, you can run a.i. on your phone which makes it faster and secure and unlock new applications. that is different from a.i. and google with the android operating system with a huge model to deploy. that is interesting stay how a.i. on the mobile space develops >> a big driver of the u.s. stock market yesterday definitely a lot of legs to the story. arjun, thank you for bringing us the latest on a.i. and coming up, cop28 discussions are in the final stages as leaders seek to come to a paradigm shift with fossil fuels. we'll discuss that after the break.

welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum >> and i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines european equities trade in the green with the dax adding to all-time highs wall street rallies around the a.i. buzz ahead of today's jobs report. europe's luxury names go up market as investors respond to

encouraging signals out of beijing as the government pledges to keep policy targets. and vice president calvino is confirmed as the new head of the european investment bank fending off her competitor. and european finance ministers may need to meet again to pass a thorny fiscal rules bill after failing to reach agreement during marathon finance talks. bruno le maire spoke about it. >> we stand ready to work very hard to get agreement by the end of 2023. let's check on the european equity action. we're about an hour and a half into the trading session

europe is now playing catch up after the under performance against the u.s. yesterday we have green across the board in europe this morning the cac 40 is leading the gains up .80%. ftse 100 is up .40%. dax is adding to the all-time highs above the 16,680 level strong start to trade while u.s. markets take a breather ahead of the non-farm payroll report today. in the asian session, we have focus on the japanese market nikkei 225 is down 1.7% in the overnight session. continuing its decline this as the yen hit a four-month high against the dollar maintaining the rally since the bank of japan governor said central bank will look at wages and service prices as part of the monetary guidance. a sign participants read as a

move to the ultra tight policy the yen extending the rally. nikkei extending losses. the markets now according to deutsche bank pricing in a 20% chance of moving away from negative interest rates at the meeting on december 19th looking at broader markets you have sterling on the back foot against the dollar. euro against the greenback at 107.66 in bond markets, here is how things look ahead of the non-farm payroll report. in europe, yields are higher across the board similar story for the u.s. treasury curb. you see we are higher everywhere this morning fairly contained five points higher for the ten-year note. four basis points higher for the two-year note. as for stocks stateside, we are looking at gains across the board. we are turned more positive in

the last half hour dow is leading gains at 50 points the nasdaq and s&p are flat and just a touch in positive territory. >> nfp day cop28 president al jaber urged countries to step up adding the next few days could deliver a paradigm shift on climate change this as sessions at the cop28 climate summit in dubai kickoff today on moving away from fossil fuels conversations are set to take place in the next few days. >> the next five days, we have the potential to deliver a paradigm shift that can define global economies and our future and put the most vulnerable in the center of climate action

big tech has long had a water problem, but a.i. is threatening to make matters worse and leaders in a.i. report a huge jump in water consumption. cnbc's sam hmeredith filed this report >> reporter: let's say i ask questions to chatgpt about water. this is roughly the bottle of water with hundreds of uses and it quickly shows how thirsty a.i. can be. it is information like this that shines a light on the footprint and overlooked the issue that is under public scrutiny as demand for a.i. gathers pace in 2023, protesters took to the street over the google plan to

build a data center. it would use vast amounts of water at the time the country was suffering the worst drought in years the researcher at the university of california looked at the paper with the uses of water >> the public is getting more knowledgeable of the water issue. if they learned the big teches are taking away their water resources and not getting enough water, nobody will like it we will see more clashes in the coming years as well this type of risk will have to be taken care of by the companies. >> reporter: microsoft disclosed in the latest sustainability report that the global water rose by more than one-third climbing to 1.7 billion gallons. google's total water consumption came in at 5.6 billion gallons

in 2022. a 21% increase from the year before it means microsoft's use was more than 2,500 olympic-sized swimming pools >> shocking stats there. sam's full report is on the web site at cnbc.com i read the numbers and i took a look at the glass of water i have here. this is it i have lipstick smudges on it. this is about 300 mls. for every 20 questions that you ask chatgpt, it is consumer this entire glass of water. that's 20 questions. you can imagine how much water it is consuming. you think about all of the technologies and you sort of forget the broader impact of how much it takes to power this type of generative a.i. and learning and machine learning and energy

generation it consumes a lot of energy in general. that's not necessarily good for the environment. >> joumanna, i love the water glass as a way to think about it i'm going to be thinking about chatgpt every time i have a glass of water now this is reminisce dof the cryptocurrency sand the data mining and environmental impact of the crypto industry >> in 2021, we had lots of discussions about that talking about how much water cooling you need for it. >> a common theme with the new technology is how much power is needed to get them going we will take a quick break do stay with "street signs." we'll be right back. only the sleep number smart bed lets you each choose your individual firmness and comfort. your sleep number setting. and actively cools and warms up to 13 degrees on either side. and now, save 40% on the sleep number special edition smart bed, shop for a limited time. only at sleep number it■s beginning to look

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welcome back over the past week, we have been bringing you extensive coverage from cop28 in dubai. today is the beginning of the ministerial portion of the summit i'm happy to say joining us is michele della vigna from goldman

sachs. michele, i'll talk about what we learned at cop28 where decisions are beginning to be made in your mind, will we get anything concrete to move the needle on energy transition? >> i think this is going to be a very concrete cop that is focusing on key issues and trying to get some concrete resolution the first one, i think is innovation the first time the entire global oil industry has come together to commit to reduce emissions by 2030 also, i think we are seeing some progress in funds for emerging markets. it is progressing. i believe on the carbon side, we

are seeing material issues addressed. i see the an amount of investment from the regions. we have seen it in the coming decade at least $600 billion or more in green projects that is matching the oil and gas investment this is a lot of progress from the region i'm not sure we will get major headlines, but i think there will be concrete steps forward >> that is encouraging given the negative headlines the $600 billion is notable. that number actually needs to be in the trillions let's talk about renewables. we did a segment on wind power a couple weeks ago now we are in an environment of rising interest rates and costs and manufacturing snags. is that deterring investment

from going into renewable projects >> you are right we are challenged at the moment from the cost perspective, especially offshore with wind. that is the technology for some counci countries. there is a way of hope for solar. technologies where we see between 20% to 30% of kocosts fm the dpbeginning of the year. that is where we see the biggest inc increase we see a lot of management with the developers with the cost of solar is something that is starting to drive more interest and investment >> michele, let me ask about the carbon conference where you held it at the goldman offices in london i want to ask about investors.

how much do investors really care about sustainability at this stage we obviously hear it a lot as a buzz word. when it comes down to it for fundamental investors, not esg specific, but the broader investment community -- how muc does it really matter at this point? >> i think it really matters in terms of the numbers that came to the conference, over 1,000 people year over year. it shows the interest and i believe the forecast is changing a lot of the focus two years ago was exclusion and diffinvestment we have a focus on debate and they are starting to transition with the green technology by

kw quantifying the change and reengaging in the energy transition >> are you seeing more appetite from esg investors to invest in heavy emissions companies that are trying to transition with the likes of the oil companies which esg investors have stayed away from, but could be pivotal in the dpgreen transitions ahea? >> definitely. if we look at the funds in europe with the framework when it was introduced in 2020 was found 20% underweight. we feel that is the sector and

the european oil in the first time in over a decade has out performed. my guess is that trend will continue if we look at the ownership in the dpufl, dpufl gulf, it is rd there is a comeback on the traditional energy from the european investor. the key focus on transition and ownership of the companies that are trying to change toward the profitable and lower carbon future >> michele, thank you for joining us head of natural resources and research for goldman sachs over in the crypto industry, asset managers applying for

bitcoin etf is considering key technical details. reuters sitecites moves that the regulator will soon approve the product. senator elizabeth warren called for the bank's secrecy act to be updated. the u.s. cannot allow crypto for terrorist financing and drug trafficking. and mike novogratz spoke to cnbc hinting out at creiticism over jamie dimon. >> he keeps doubling down and keeps being wrong. so many of jamie's clients in america, fidelity and druckenmiller, big investors all believe that bitcoin is a store

value. we see it. our trading desk is busy with hedge funds pebuying >> kate rooney has more on the price action and those who burned their fingers >> reporter: it has been a tough time betting against the proxy stocks as bitcoin has rallied. this year, bitcoin is up 300% since january. data shows short sellers have lost $6 billion this year on the crypto related bets. half of the losses came from coinbase shorts. it became a popular trade this fall and short sellers increased exposure when it was overbought. short sellers are down $2.7 billion in the past few months or off 148%. part of the rally is likely a short squeeze and you have individual traders starting to

chase this momentum. individual traders rotated out of big tech and into the small-cap stocks some benefitted in the past week with the bitcoin mining names. analysts point to the january 10th deadline for the s.e.c. potential approval of the bitcoin etf. that is what is causing the excitement being a momentum-driven asset class with the catalyst on the near-term horizon means we would not be surprised to see retail traders to see flow into the space into the comment weeks kate rooney, cnbc, san francisco. >> those numbers were cutting. i don't know if you had a chance to hear him speak. i don't know if you had a chance to see it. he has been opposed to bitcoin and cryptocurrency the only use is money laundering

and drug trafficking he is not a proponent of them. >> the late charlie munger as well he said something similar to that effect. >> if the etfs are approved, it will legitimize them >> i spoke to the ceo of coinbase, brian armstrong, a couple of weeks ago. i thought after the very high profile declines of cz and sam bankman-fried, this would be the end to the crypto industry these were the men carrying the torch for the industry their fates ended in a very disappointing way for anyone involved in the crypto space what we have seen actually is something truly remarkable the crypto market and bitcoin specifically, strongly rebounded. many in the space are saying

they can move past it because all of the bad actors have been taken out. is that the case will we discover more bad actors in the future? >> is there something structural about the crypto market? will we discover more in the future that lends itself to the bad actors taking advantage of it and using it in the wrong way? let's look at more traditional assets and start with equities here in europe with green across the board. we are a couple of hours now into the trading session you have the cac 40 still leading the gains up .90%. for the week, this is how european equities are looking. we are up strongly in europe we have the dax up 1.8% trading at a record level. it has been strong for sdwgerma. swiss market is lagging behind .30%. from the sector perspective,

this is what is happening today. you have the majority of sectors trading higher and contributing to the green we are seeing in the regional level travel and leisure up 1.2% retail is also performing well oil and gas up 1%. on the down side, real estate is trading lower. basic resources is trading a little bit lower despite the comments or signals coming from beijing about more targeted policy support coming. >> i feel like those were signi. we got them an hour ago. everyone is thinking about the u.s. and europe and rate cuts. china is the swing factor for 2023 we spent the year talking about the disappointing economic numbers coming from china. we are getting comments from chinese authorities saying they are planning on bringing in fiscal stimulus in 2024. that could be a big driver for markets. >> absolutely. it was interesting to hear the comments on the fiscal and monetary front this morning that

they will be continuing to provide support. turning to bond markets. we are looking at yields higher across the board in europe and in the u.s. this morning you have the ten-year u.s. treasury note five points higher all of this ahead of the non-farm payroll report later today and the fed meeting next week u.s. markets week to date. the tech heavy nasdaq after the strong session yesterday is green for the week up .25%. the dow jones industrial average and s&p are a little lower on the week heading into today's session. we are supposed to take a quick look at u.s. futures, but, julianna, i'll not do that i'll use the last minutes on the show to say this is the last show together for a while. you are heading out on maternity leave. such a big, big momentous occasion we are going to miss you so much here at cnbc i can't imagine what it will be like doing the show without you.

a token from us. this is our producer david who watches the program. this is from all of us here at cnbc >> thank you that's so sweet. >> we wish you the best. we know you are just going to be the most amazing mother. we will miss you so much >> thank you >> a beginning of a very long journey. get used to not sleeping i haven't slept in a couple of years. speaking from personal experience, becoming a mother was very exciting. >> thank you so much you have been an amazing support for the last nine months hopefully you are not going to zoom in on me. it has been a wonderful nine months everybody here, david, who has just came on, has made it wonderful for me the last nine months i feel privileged to be in a position to take a really nice chunk of time out to be with our

future baby. i'm excited for this add conve adventure with my husband. joumanna, thank you. she has been supportive and helping me prepare for a momentous occasion thank you for viewers for watching i'll be back in the new year that is it for "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum >> i'm joumanna bercetche. introducing the limited edition disney collection from blendjet. nine exciting designs your whole family will adore blendjet 2 is portable, which means you can blend up nutritious smoothies,

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is your "five@5." stocks are set to snap a five-day winning streak. stocks are running out of steam we are laying out the bull and bear cases ahead. today, investors are looking toward the big november jobs report into the insight into the health of the economy after the weaker than expected jolts report this week julia pollak is here to