and rubenstein in talks to buy the baltimore orioles. it is friday, december 8th and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen andrew is an assignment. he is here he joins us from chicago hi, andrew >> one hour early. >> just on the edge of the time change >> you didn't have time to shift to that. you are still on east coast time no excuses here. you look great and bright tailed and bushy eye. >> i hope you were not out late

at dinner. >> how is the oura ring? >> i haven't checked >> i'm thinking mid-60s. >> we'll see let's look at the u.s. equities. you will see green arrows. dow up 20 points the s&p up 7.5 yesterday, the dow and s&p broke three-day losing streaks the nasdaq had a good day. best day since november 14th treasury yields with the ten-year yield at 4.1882 the two-year yield above 4.16% crude oil is sitting where we were yesterday morning at this time. 7 $70.50 a barrel. andrew. let's talk about what joe stated at the top of the

program. the intersection of wall street and universities and free speech talking about the testimony by three university presidents on capitol hill this week here is one key exchange between upenn president liz mcgill and congress member stefanik >> i am asking and calling for the genocide of jews does that constitute bullying or harassment >> if it is directed and severe, it is harassment >> the answer is yes >> it is a context dependent decision >> that's your testimony today calling for the genocide of jews is depending upon the context? that is not bullying or harassment this is the eeasiest question to answer >> the board asking mcgagill to

resign and ross stevens, founder of stoneridge, of the school planning to withdrawal a gift worth $100 million to protest the school response to anti-semitism. according to the leview of the letter, he had the right to res rescind. he intends to do so. meantime, rabbi wolf has resigned from harvard committee. he said the decision was based on events on campus and the painful testimony from the committee. they launched a probe into harvard and penn we will talk to the president of brandeis university in the 8:00 hour i have heard from people saying

i won't donate further this is another level of saying $100 million donation withdrawn on the basis of the reputational damage which is contractural in the way the gift was given based on the policies of stone sridge, which is the investment firm, and because they own the firm, they will retire the unit. retire the shares so that university of penn would not access them. the big question is this could be a larger allegation to oust the president and if the president were removed, would this all change? it probably would. we still don't know why or where the university board and trustees sit on the very issue >> liz magill -- >> the wharton board did this because the gift went to establish a finance school maybe not unrelated.

the wharton school board doesn't have a lot of say over what the rest of the university does. they are trying to make sure we are not a fan of this. >> i don't know if i would call it that. of the three or four that testified, liz magill seems like she may have some of the biggest problems andrew, congresswoman stefanik has a big piece in the journal today. the college presidents are directly responsible for the hate flourished on campus since october 7th. she points out at harvard, the school has actually banned -- i think i got an idea of what that might be a lot of genders like 15 or something. also fat phobia. using the wrong pronoun.

all those qualifies as abuse and perpetuates violence on campus apparently not some of the other things it is hard to fathom how we got here maybe it is not that hard. it is still strikes me as insane that we've gotten rid of statues of christopher columbus, but it is like hitler is making a comeback it couldn't have just happened in a month it couldn't or two months or how long it has been it crept up on all of us. >> robert kraft started that foundation and made huge donations to fight anti-semitism. he saw it four years ago it is a bigger surprise to me to see where things stand at this point. i talked to him the other day when he was here he noticed this and was concerned enough to put his money there four years ago

>> i can't understand where the boards are and trustees are on this issue there are good people on these boards of these universities there are people who are -- up until now are talented and thoughtful it makes it a harder argument to say they are talented and thoughtful today given they continue to support leaders that have he equivocated on this iss where the average american would be disgusted it is disgusting to see these things i think they know it is disgusting because the presidents have backtracked a day or two after and this keeps happening. they say it is fine. they apologize for what they did. >> they hired pr firms to prepare them for the testimony that's what they came up with.

they had qualifications to get hired as the president of the most elite universities in the world. they had to have some qualifications and they had to hire pr firms to talk about maybe the anti-semitism. >> they refused to admit the original mistake and doubled down >> when you send your kids to harvard, what is the advantage ak de academically is where they he a are at the top of the heap it makes me question the big reputation of these places >> let me ask you a management question most universities in america, especially the top universities, the presidents of the universities come up through the system they are academics that are leading these institutions

they are not considered -- >> that might be the first problem. >> business managers these are clearly multibill on iion dollar businesses. there is a real question mark over who is managing these things and they have to make difficult decisions. it is not to say academics can't do these jobs. you look at the mayo clinic. doctors have come up through the ranks. i wonder -- >> i think about the institutions i know when you bring in somebody from the outside. that is the sursurest way to mes up the culture the question is the culture may be seriously corrupted >> i also think about the fabulous alumni that have come

out of the institutions. >> they're all horrified >> i know. i imagine there are remarkable alumni who are tremendous managers who could -- >> m.i.t >> see you guys. >> i'm not admitting i went to boulder. >> they are hanging their head out there to put into the roles that have both a connection to the university and academic connection and, perhaps, some talents and experiences managing huge institutions that have controversial and difficult things they need to grapple with >> this is all such heady stuff. you seem tired how late were you and santoli

out last night >> the windy city here it is not that windy in the city. >> itdid you talk to rick >> i didn't. i haven't gotten to see rick i was here i was interviewing michael lewis. wrote the book about sam bankman-fried. >> there's still time. there are places open right now. call rick. >> it's 9:00 somewhere >> yeah. we have business to take care of before we let them do that we have today's big jobs report coming up. we need andrew and rick to stand by for that at 8:30 a.m. eastern time here is a look at the futures ahead of the employment data dow up 68. nasdaq up 10 and s&p up by 7 here we go

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they can start to think about cutting rates before inflation get to two if they are convinced the

progress is real means we heard comments along the lines from governor waller. there is a difference with how much does it take to get inflation to 2% and how long does it take for the fed to think about rate cuts? >> that was former fed vice chair rich clarida speaking on "closing bell. we get today's jobs data we bring in our two guests veronica, let's start with you the reality of where you think the economy is headed and what we might hear with the jobs report today >> i think we're going to get 195,000 this morning that is still a really robust pace of jobbing growth we have returning striking workers in the report today. i think the overwhelming story is the labor market is strong and the economy is resilient we are starting to see some

signs that cracks are forming. the most important thing to watch is the unemployment rate. if the cracks build and we see layoffs, we are still thinking we are heading for recession next year. >> if we see a strong number, as you mentioned, people coming back from strikes and that looks at a strong job market, what would the reaction from the economists be that maybe this slowdown is further off than we thought? >> i don't know if i would read too much into one employment report just yet. especially because a weakening in the labor market can be non-lineal issues to that. markets, of course, are pricing relatively near-term cuts for the fed. if we get a robust number, we push that price out a bit. >> matt, that is where the big rub comes down on all this you could be looking at a number

that no matter what it is, is not going to be pleasing to the market with the gains we have seen and the expectation that the market is looking for cuts sooner rather than later >> i think ever since the selloff that hit the bottom in october just ahead of halloween, we have seen a rebound in risk pricing. my view on this is the fast twitch response of risk markets, whether equities or creditor observations through to volatility is all pointing toward a very optimistic look at rate cuts. people shouldn't lose focus on the comments from the fed that there's policy work that's done and just maintaining a higher level of rate on the static basis. i don't think the fed is likely to flinch and try to support what is already seen as a bit of a problematic bubble in real

estate my view on it is we are probably a little over our skis as far as the rebound going into year end and optimistic on the look through over the impact. >> have you been holding off on allocating anymore money in equities >> from the value perspective, equities are relatively unattractive all forms of long risk are short volatility trades. you have to figure out how you are compensated for short volatility the equity/value proposition right now compared to credit doesn't look as good if you look at classic cap structure terms, equity is a call option on the assets of the company above and beyond that which debt holders have a claim to if you can get secured attachment and start putting money to work at relatively attractive levels as a credit investor, that is very attractive right now

>> okay. veronica, the things you would be expecting in terms of when you think the fed might cut rates if rates? if you think the market is ahead of itself and thinking march or april? >> we are looking past inflation data from the six months means it is stronger to us stronger than 2% we think it will have to be weaker activity data the fed has to be cutting. i think we will see that in the middle of next year. not as soon as q1. we are still pencilling in recession. we have the first fed cut in july of next year. >> matt, veronica says we should look at the overall unemployment number >> i mean, i think if you look through to the employment situation as it relates to companies, you also have the

higher cost of capital aspect of the flow through of rising rates that we had over the last year and a half that has backed off recently a lot of the optimism in the equity market is coming from the fact we have seen the rapid contraction in rates which is bringing down the cost of capital. i should say not just rates coming down over the last month, but also credit spreads narrowing quickly and in tandem with the risk rally. a lot of relief at the company level if they're having some form of friction in the labor markets, then they are getting relief in the rapid decrease with the cost to capital >> matt and veronica, thank you. >> thank you >> thank you very much coming up on the other side of the break, new data showing that reports of the wealth flight from new york may be overblown. guess who has that story

robert frank will join us. later, house majority whip tom emmer will be with us to talk about the challenges for congress ahead of the funding l ijaarn nuy. althat and more after this

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the exodus of wealth from new york city may have been greatly exaggerated. robert frank has new data that may put that myth to rest. this is interesting. hit me with it, robert >> becky, the report from the fiscal policy center says the wealth flight during covid was temporary. new york lost 430,000 residents between 2020 and 2022. nearly one-third were making

more than $172,000 a year by the end of the year of 2022, those numbers returned to the pre-pandemic levels. the report said 2,400 earners moved out of the state and the state kcre created 17,000 new g. it grew despite the 2021 tax hike not only is the high earner tax h migration a myth, but no need to fear for the state's fiscal and economic future. new york state controller tom dinapoli said with high-income earners comprising a large share of personal income tax collections, policymakers need to consider any effect of the movement of taxpayers on state and budget matters new york has a $4 billion

deficit next year. the report says they all left and the rate of migration declined after they left it is not a problem. >> what we call high earners 175, forget about that those people are not high earners in new york. >> the top 20% in new york state. >> still you lose five or six billionaires there is a difference. what is a millionaire? they make $1 million >> $1 million earner >> you miss those guys >> it was all because the stock market boom in 2021 when stocks were up 20% will not happen every year they all left and the rate of decline has slowed of course it did because most of them are gone. if you look at the top 20%, they are leaving at twice the rate pre-pandemic

>> i see. >> it is still a big problem we're seeing it in the tax roles. >> crazy >> thanks, robert. >> thanks. coming up, house majority whip tom emmer will join us. his job got harder after the expulsion of george santos and the announcement from kevin mccarthy i had to laugh woodside energy and santos said they are in discussions for a me merger what sense did that make >> you have santos on the brain? >> i read that what >> the poor corona beer people >> weren't you wondering what santos was going to do merging with woodstock. >> he is doing ads on cameo. >> santos -- >> we should call him.

we should get him to do a cameo. a "squawk" cameo >> i know what i'm getting you for christmas. ding, ding, ding christmas presents all around. >> you know, we can set senator menendez to comment on the prospects for gold where is that headed we'll be right back. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business next level moments need the next level network. reasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. if you look at the wall street numbers. s&p is down slightly you have two hours to go before the jobs report. we will see how the markets

react. the senate's failure to pass the funding bill for israel and ukraine and the border is setting negotiations after the house passed its bill a month ago. we are glad to see house majority whip tom emmer. his name was up in lights for a little while around the country in the crazy search for a speaker. the second and third and fourth. >> one of those. >> i have seen both sides, i'm not going to say demagog it, but schumer said in no universe are these two things related i'm willing to talk about the border as long as we do it separately from ukraine and israel i can see how it is related though we care about people in our country. we care about ukraine, too this is out of control 12,000 people a day. it used to be -- remember

secretary jeh johnson? he said 1,000 was crazy. 4,000 was untenable. now we're at 12,000. why so much resistance >> it is interesting i think he has resistance within his own group in the senate. it is also probably related to the house. the senate and the house are always competing mike johnson has said he is willing -- we're not going to abandon ukraine is the speaker's statement. if we are going to help secure someone's border, we are going to secure ours at the same time. he said we need to have substantive changes to seal the southern border. the challenge that chuck schumer has, is that the biden white house needs to win on the border you don't have to just be a republican you have to be an american this is the number two issue for most americans >> it is finally making its way

over the transom it wasn't going to be something we needed to do, but it is actually starting to hurt the polls and things like that. >> what is the specifics that the house is pushing for that the white house went accept? they say two extremes. if you are just looking at the very extreme issues there, what are they what is the extreme? >> that is what they say extreme issues the house passed the strongest border security bill in 20 years back from may. that would seal the southern border they want to claim it eliminates asylum and claim it gives people who have a legitimate interest in coming to this country and precludes that from happening. it does not. what it does pretty much right now is if you enforce the laws,

people have an opportunity to come here and we can seal that border the biggest usuaissue, joe, thi a national security issue. not just americans politically have had enough and have seen what happened. this is dangerous. this is not just fentanyl, but bad actors coming across the border >> >> chris scared me the other day. >> this is a distant comparison. pipelines for instance when someone doesn't want a pipeline, they say i don't like the route that is taking we have to change the route. that is what i hear from chuck schumer. this is extreme. we can't have it tell us. what is extreme? what would you change? the challenge mike johnson has in the house is a group that wants just the border security bill that we passed. all of those pieces. in the senate, john thune told

us we probably will floanot get of them, but substantive ones to allow it to move >> i hear something that sounded like the republicans taking a page from the democrats playbook that was we're more worried about funding irs agents than we are about helping israel now it seems like you are back to that. that's a domestic, according to democrats, that is something we need domestically. israel, you could say it is the same thing we need to help ukraine without helping ourselves at the border. can we use that without funding the irs? >> this is disgusting, frankly the house voted through $14.6 billion necessary for israel it is what they requested. we did that a month ago,

chuck -- sorry, oe good morning >> andrew, did you hear that we're talking about chuck schumer. he called me chuck >> isn't that great? >> you can call me tim >> there you go. >> chuck >> the interesting concept, joe, we paid for it we took the money out of the huge pot of money that democrats gave to the irs. >> andrew, we need that money, don't we >> we do we have to figure out the border >> we need the money for the irs. i'm take rying to get you invol here >> the idea it comes from the irs makes no sense whatsoever. >> the fact it makes no sense. personally, you are talking to somebody who would have paid for it without a pay for you are $33 trillion in debt and

the idea is lets find something to pay for it. >> you don't take from the place that makes revenue from you and makes it harder to collect revenue. >> that is a different discussion they say that will make money. one, they haven't hired the agents yet two, we would have a disagreement about that. they say they will take it from those who have the most. when you are hiring this many irs agents, i guarantee billionaires have people to tell them how to protect their money. main street usa are the ones to get hit. >> interesting thing about proposals for immigration, you have support from the chicago mayor and the governor of massachusetts. democrats. has the mayor of new york signed off on that? he seems to be quiet >> he hasn't been quiet on the problem. >> is that the thing that ends

the log jam you have blue cities and blue state governors and mayors who come to push this over the finish line >> it goes back to what joe was complaining about or pointing out. why does it have to be a political issue when it is the right thing to do which is seal our border and make sure good people that want to come here for the right reasons are able to come here le leaving a wide open border nobody can understand why. why is it wide open? these mayors putting pressure on the white house absolutely will be helpful to moving it. the question is what will the schumer senate do and how is the white house going to move them >> will this happen before the holiday? you have a couple of weeks before it goes and ukraine is in a desperate situation. >> we don't. we have five or six legislative days left in the year. >> the answer is no? >> it is unlikely. we will have the conference

report voted on next week. this is the other thing that's troubling. the house has actually had all 12 appropriations bills on the floor. they are already to be conferenced with the senate. the senate passed three of them so far we need to get together and get those appropriations bills done before we get to january 19th. >> while you still have a majority you are losing a couple of good men there. mccarthy >> and patrick mchenry >> gaetz >> that is up to matt gaetz and the people that voted for him. >> it is not some type of -- nothing coming down from the ethics investigation >> i don't know about that >> you know nothing about in that you haven't heard? >> about what it is and what they are doing i know somebody just restarted or something reported in the last couple days that the ethics investigation is still there

that's what i know >> some people say the senate might be a better shot than the house in 2024. >> i disagree. the senate has a great shot. i think it will turn because it has an excellent map and they have great candidates. joe, i ran the campaign operation for four years in 2020, when we were losing the white house and senate, we were told we would lose 25 plus seats on the republican side >> you waited until 2022 to have the horrible year. >> i disagree. >> it should have been better. >> look, i would disagree with that, too. i told our guys for two years don't measure the drapes you don't win majorities on redistricting. republicans are not great at it. in 2012, after the last decades maps were first run on, the republicans in the house lost the popular vote by one point to democrats. we had 234 seats in 2016, we won the popular vote

and had 241 seats. last november, chuck, we won by over three points. >> you called me chuck >> did i call you chuck again? >> jonathan, what do you think >> i love this i love this. i'm calling him chuck from now on >> might be talking about chuck. >> i'm never invited back. >> no. it is that two-year thing we worry about. no one is safe. >> you see what the problem is >> the minute you are elected, you work on your re-election i defer to our founding fathers. they're looking better no more statues of them around congress member, thank you >> thank you >> you are minnesota nice. you call me chuck.

coming up, new report says david rubenstein is in talks to buy the orioles. and you n llcafoow "squawk pod" and listen to your favorite podcast any time we'll be right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

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david rubenstein is in talks to buy the baltimore yoorioles. he said he would consider buying the team if it were to come up for sale >> nice ballpark and yard. >> i think you sometimes buy teams when they're not really in contention he could step right into it with great seats and watching >> the reason you buy it when they're not in contention is the cost you are trying to buy low. >> they had a great year, i guess. they cooled off toward the end i would like to, if i can be part of the group. >> probably not. >> chuck is part of the group?

>> chuck kernan. chuck. >> i don't see you as a chuck. >> no. that's why joe scarborough his name is charles. he was not a chuck >> his middle name is joe? >> yeah. >> you could go by richard >> i could i could make a comment about that >> no. >> i'm holding my tongue >> i know. i see you. >> it's his middle name. >> is ross your middle name or do you have another middle name? >> now it's jonathan >> right that's a family name >> ross is my middle name and if you want to steal my credit cards, it's my mother's maiden ga name. >> someone asked me for that yesterday. news alert for you folks the wall street journal reporting honeywell agreed to

buy carrier global security business for $5 billion. that business makes products including electronic locks for big companies, hotels and hospital chains. the deal bulks up honeywell's segment. honeywell is spending $25 billion on acquisitions and dividends and share buybacks this would take care of 20% of that andrew. thanks when we come back on the other side of the break, shares of idceodb is down despite the guan we will have the ceo on the program in just a moment

welcome back to "squawk box. this morning, mongodb beati ingn

the top and bottom lines but the stock taking a hit joining us now is dev ittycheria good morning to you. it was a remarkable quarter in so many ways and yet the markets decided to punish you for it let's talk about the quarter and i'm so curious what you think of the reaction to it >> andrew, thank you for having me revenue growth was 30% our cloud business grew 36% year over year. we delivered 18% non-gap operating margins, raised guidance and the feedback from the analyst was that the revenue strength and consistent performance an profitability really look good i think what we're seeing is the back end, some short-term money that was betting on even a bigger beat and those investors are unwinding some of their positions. >> well, that -- look, you had -- there is a high bar to clear at this point. the expectations are so high in terms of how -- how do you

think about the valuation of a company and what you even try to comp, if you will, against others >> our stock, if you track our stock, has been quite volatile just to put things in perspective, our stock has grown 100% year over year. we feel about how investors think about the business and view us as one of the beneficiaries of the big new computing power called a.i it is hard for me to give you an opinion on valuation there is a lot of factors all of you know far better than me in terms of interest rates and where people think the economy is going all we focus on is being able to acquire lots of customers, drive revenue growth and show increasing profitability. >> so, let's talk about that piece of it. as you look out over the next 12 months and look at your customer base, what are you seeing in terms of underlying strength or weakness, frankly >> so, we're adding lots of new customers. we have 46,000 customers today, who use us for almost every use case across nearly every

industry and geography so, customers like goldman and telefonica and vodafone and ford they're using us to power trading platforms of wall street, e-commerce platforms, travel sites, billing, cryptocurrency, and so people are really focused on innovation it is clear that competing tensions, one, people do recognize that they have to make, you know, focus on cost management and be very efficient and drive their business but they also see this new computing paradigm bigger than anything potentially that we have all seen and want to make sure they're well positioned for it and make sure they can use this technology for competitive advantage. so, we feel like we're in a good position to help customers do that >> i remember for years, i'm sure you know this, there was speculation about whether you would get taken over and sell the company. how do you think about m&a at this point and where you sort of lie in the stack given all the big players, maybe even by the

way, could be you're so big now and given the other bigger players that -- from a regulatory perspective, nothing could happen >> yeah, i mean, we, again, my whole philosophy on m&a is just focus on growing our business, and if someone wants to make an offer we can't refuse, we'll listen to them we're looking at m&a for us, we have an ambitious product road map and the sum areas we can't get to fast enough as you very well know, the venture capital market has contracted a bit startups are having trouble raising money. and a lot of them are sitting on very high valuations so their employees are working for free because the com stock is not worth a lot. given that, we're seeing more startups be open to potentially being acquired by mongodb. i'm not signaling thing, but that's something we're putting a lot more focus on. >> dev, we appreciate talking to you, appreciate you coming on, especially this week

we look forward to talking you to again soon. >> thank you, andrew >> over to becky. >> andrew, thank you when we come back, the countdown is on. today is jobs friday we have got that jobs report coming up in just about an hour and a half time. we're going to get you ready for the november data and the impact on the fed's next decision, what that all means for the markets we're watching the gains whittled away, dow future in positive territory only by about 10 points. nasdaq indicated off by 25 and the s&p barely in negative territory. also, later this morning, the ceo of docusign will dig through the company's latest quarter "squawk box" will be right back. ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪

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why are we the only birds heading this way? ♪ ♪ what is that? duck à l'orange. what's duck à l'orange? it's you, with l'orange on top. good morning waiting on the jobs report the futures are mixed. but really heading a little lower over the last hour or so we'll see because that could all change at 8:30 a.m. eastern time we will have a preview the push for a wealth tax. senator elizabeth warren on the front lines of that battle we will debate the hot button issue just ahead. and the fallout from this week's testimony by university presidents on capitol hill we'll talk to the president of brandeis university about battling anti-semitism on campus the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now

good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin with joe kernen and becky quick i'm on assignment, joe and becky at the nasdaq market site in the big apple. let's -- we got a lot going on jobs friday. let's show you u.s. equity futures at this hour, all this likely to change, may change we'll see. at 8:30 when we get the numbers. the dow up about 16, 17 points the nasdaq off about 18 points and the s&p 500, i'm going to call it bunched right now, pretty much. look at treasuries, ten-year and two-year ten-year at 4.180 and two-year

at ha4.627. crude at 7.46. crypto, barometer of risk on and risk off, what you think the fed is going to do next, really sitting now at $43,916. the big employment report for november is less than 90 minutes away we're hgoing to have the number and instant reaction let's get over to our senior economics reporter steve liesman for a preview. give us all the expected numbers so we can figure out how it looks when it hits >> i think the over/under, joe markets are hoping and forecasting a cooling in the job market this morning that confirms other data pointed toward that soft landing that would allow the fed to cut rates as early as the coming spring. here are the numbers looking for 190, but that number is going to be flatter by returning strike workers between 30 and 40,000 on the estimates

i'm seeing so it would be around the lower number that we got last month of 150,000. unemployment rate seen unchanged at 3.9 average hourly earnings at 0.3 that would tick down the year over year rate to 4% from 4.1% still a percentage point or more above the prepandemic level, but that would be down two points from the peak that we had that created some inflation concern along with striking workers returning, also this issue of seasonally adjusted holiday hiring that's all been complicated by pandemic era hiring that is throwing a wrench into the adjustments that have anything but seasonally normal. one stat i like to watch to gauge the labor market, duration of unemployment. it is creeping up for 22 weeks of low rates that show the unemployed at not spending much time out of a job, but we'll see because that number has been creeping up and that should show you a little more looseness in the market but they write i expect 230,000

gain, i also look for the unemployment rate to tick down that combination could startle dovish investors indeed, there is much on the line this morning with a market that looked fully priced for near term and deep fed rate cuts here are the numbers 10% rate cut probability for january. but 58% for march. 88%, just about fully priced for may. there is going to be no direct bearing on this number with the fed's rate decision next week. it could color the guidance, a stronger number might prompt fed chair jay powell to dig in his heels about it being premature to talk about rate cuts. >> right what is the latest, fed futures at this point, steve could this change the outlook for cuts i think it could i think it could if it comes in strong, and it looks like that strength is not

related to -- to the returning striking workers, if the participation rate doesn't go up, in other words, if we do well and have more people employed, but we're bringing more people into the workforce, that's not really inflationary outcome there. if the labor supply is equal to the labor demand, it is when you show additional tightness, that bears on the fed's notion that the service sector is going to be still a source of too high inflation because of what is happening to wages there. >> just wondering how much of what we have seen is dependent on those cuts coming through, because plenty of people said we just need to get back there to normalize rates from the pandemic, however far back you want to go that's where we are. these aren't ridiculous,

historically high rates. if we don't get the cuts, i don't know, people are kind of counting on them. >> you know, joe, i've been thinking about that, i don't know that i have a good answer i was hoping you would but i think it is a great point. how much of this recent risk on is dependent upon the fed following through at least near term with these rates. i will tell you there is an awful lot of rate cuts built in for next year. 130 basis points and that's more than double than it was back in october i have my doubts about that in part because, you know, what happens to the economy if the fed is cutting by 130 basis points i don't think that's necessarily a positive environment for risk on >> exactly all right. thanks, steve. we'll talk to you again. let's get a check on the markets. joining us is ashish shah, chief investment officer of public investing at goldman sachs asset management how does that make you different from our average stock jockey we have on the show to talk about

stocks what is your -- what are you trying to do >> so, i oversee the $2.3 trillion of public assets across stocks and bonds i think one of the things on jobs friday here, we're here to talk about, is bonds because that question around whether the fed is going to cut 130 basis points a year -- for the coming year is one of the biggest questions for the entire market >> right you, i think, believe that if you ignore bonds, it is not smart. that you can almost match -- if stocks do only average from here, you can actually do better in bonds. >> the thing i know is that everyone out there has had a fantastic time just clipping the coupon in their money market funds, it has been a great time because you haven't had to take any volatility and what, you know, i think we're seeing right now in the market is not just a slowing of the economy, but inflation that

is actually coming down and that sets up a fantastic total return for the bond market. >> where governments, corporates, how long >> so because we're slowing down, i think you, you know, you know that you got to be a little bit careful in staying up in quality, so we like corporates, we like securitized, we like, you know, the treasury market. you're going to do well in all of those you know, midcurve is where you want to be you will see steepening through this environment but at the end of the day, i think the simple problem that everyone has is that they actually don't own enough bonds and they're sitting on cash. that cash isn't going to deliver any performance beyond the yield and that yield is going to come down. >> you're not necessarily saying sell your equities, you're saying take your cash pile and put it here instead. >> start moving out the curve. if this is a strong number, you want to go out there and you want to start adding to your duration position, take every

opportunity you can when people get scared about what the fed is going to be doing to build your position in. we have hit the midcycle, the fed's hikes had their impact on inflation and this coming year is going to be the year of bonds. so, don't mess it up >> you can get the ten-year at 4.17 but what do you do >> i think you take the five you'll do fine in both because the ten-year is going to have a lot more duration. you're not going to have the% tr volatility in the five that you will in the ten and the five is going to perform >> by the end of it, who knows where -- five years is about, like, two years you can end up with, oh, my god, i got nothing to do here except -- and you're out a yield. but five years, you get five, but you're not stuck in case there is another inflationary spurt. you might not want to be in ten years because you can't get out. >> the ten-year is going to

steepen, right the market is going to price in some level of uncertainty. you saw what happened to the bank of japan. and japanese bond market overnight. jgb is selling off and that means that there needs to be term premium that people aren't going to -- >> 4% yesterday. >> yes so you don't want to give up on the fact that there is going to be term premium because people have this inflation experience we don't know what is going to happen over the next three or four years, given government deficits, et cetera. so i think it makes a lot of sense to be in the belly of the curve. you know, are you okay owning -- i think you're going to be fine owning tens, but the better risk return is in the fives. >> quality, equities that grow their dividends, 2.5% now, 3% now, and then by the end of five years, get a couple of hikes and those will probably work too, right? >> i think if you're going for -- into this environment,

you want to make sure your companies have pricing power because, remember, things are going to be slowing, so the companies that got pricing power because of the cyclical dynamics in the economy are going to give price, and, you know, companies that have really strong moats are going to do well the background, where we don't know how quickly it is going to play out, but we know it is going to play out is everything going on with a.i. and i think people don't understand how that's going to play through the market. the coming year is going to represent a lot of opportunity, but people are so focused on just the seven names that they left a lot of kind of low hanging fruit in the market. small cap market is representing a lot of alpha really interesting opportunities outside the u.s. and people have been really focused on big seven because it has been an easy trade. >> very good ashish shah, thank you >> thank you for having me. we have much more coming up this hour, including a wealth tax debate

that's at 7:30 eastern time straight ahead, securing critical infrastructure from cyberattacks we're going to find out what the white house is doing about the nation's cyberthreats. that's next. and check out shares of lululemon. the company's outlook for the holiday quarter came in at the low end of the street's expectations for earnings, though expectations for sales were higher than expected. the number for sales were higher than expected. on a call with analysts, calvin mcdonald said black friday this year was the single biggest day in the company's history the stock right now off by about 2.6% "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

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of weeks atwater facilities an hospitals. joining us right now to talk about protecting the nation's cyberinfrastructure is ann neuberger, white house deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology. ann, give us the lay of the land right now. we know about the recent attacks that i think are backed by the iranians are we seeing an increased number of attacks from nation states >> good morning to you yes, so, critical services like hospitals, like water systems

around the country are facing persistent attacks from hostile countries and criminals. it is a high priority here at the white house. we have been serving actionable intelligence and advice on how to tackle it and we need the companies who own this infrastructure to take on and tackle that threat together. >> definitely important to get the word out have we seen heightened information from nation staid s like iran? you hear about this from iran's involvement to some extent in what may have been taking place beforehand, is this a situation where those attacks on our infrastructure have stepped up in the aftermath >> last week we did see an increase in iranian government attacks against water systems. we have been focused on the particular threat, though to water systems for the last couple of years. so, last year the epa issued a rule to state governments asking

them to deepen cybersecurity practices for water systems due to litigation that rule had to be pulled back so now we're using that to double down on it. and i want to note particularly in the case of the water systems, some of these attacks, we believe, are preventable by good cybersecurity practices, good passwords and putting in place a lot of practices that don't cost money like that to really deepen lots of digital doors of those critical infrastructure systems. >> how safe should americans feel, just in terms of drinking the water, going to a hospital >> americans should feel absolutely safe in the safety of their water systems, and absolutely in going to hospitals. however, we do need to really lock our digital doors i want to emphasize there has been really good work over the last couple of years by companies, by state and local governments, and really improving our cybersecurity, but these hospital and persistent attacks by both countries like iran and criminals who are

attacking critical services and companies costing the economy billions of dollars need our wake-up call for ceos, for executives, to sit down, ask their leadership teams what are we doing, what have we done to lock our digital doors, are we applying the practical guidance the government is issuing, using those toolboxes and guide books on the things that need to be done to ensure critical services are safe >> you know, you talked to ceos and they will tell you that this is persistently one of the top issues, maybe one of the top three issues they're concerned about, that they're dealing with my sense is that some of the bigger companies are spending lots and lots of money on this do you worry about smaller entities that maybe don't have quite the same resources or is this a problem for the bigger companies because they're the ones who are more likely to draw an attack? >> it is a problem for our economy. our top priority are critical services and the things that need to be done don't cost a lot

of money things like changing the default passwords, things like making sure administrator access is carefully controlled, there are things that could be done today that don't cost money that would really make critical services farsafer and that's why we hav been working so closely with both small and medium-sized companies, with local -- state and local governments. the administration made resources available, has made practical guidance available, and is really deepening that partnership and calling for those companies and those governments to step up and work with us in partnership so we can tackle this. we really believe it is a threat while a persistent and difficult one, we can be in a better place with just locking and bolting our digital doors. >> i think i've always felt somewhat safe because i figured there are a lot of things you and the white house and top levels of corporations know that you're not telling me. should i assume that things you are working on that should make me feel safe >> there is a role to your point for government in this and really focusing on the most

significant national threats there is really a role for private sector and small governments. we're ready -- we're doing all we can here, and continuing to double down and do more. the partnership of companies, and really putting in place these practices is what is going to make a difference this is not a problem the government can solve on its own. this is a problem that partnerships will make a difference and we're committed to it and we really -- companies should consider this a wake-up call to take that advice, reach out to their local fbi, local officials, then bring together their leadership teams and say what have we done to ensure that we're applying this, we're patching systems well, that we understand our risks, and we're doing what needs to be done to be safe online. >> do we know -- these attacks on the water system from the iranian government, the attacks we heard recently from some criminals on companies like clorox and some of the casinos,

is that the bulk of what happened recently or have there been other things that have been not been made public >> cyberattacks are costing our economy and economies around the world billions of dollars. both in theft of important data, and disrupting critical services you mentioned two key sectors. this is an important -- is a persistent threat. we have made a lot of progress in securing digital infrastructure the president made it a priority he's pressed to ensure the government is getting out all the information it has, both about threat and as well as about good practices that are effective. but clearly these recent attacks show that there is more that needs to be done. >> okay. anne, thank you for your time today. and hopefully it is a message that is well received. >> thank you okay coming up, cnbc starting its search for disruptors. already starting the search is on we'll talk about it next and then tesla already disrupted the auto industry, but one analyst sees some challenges for the evmaker in 2024. tony sakanaki will be with us to

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>> announcer: and now the answer to today's aflac trivia question who holds the record for the most streamed artist in a single day on spotify the answer, taylor swift taylor's album "1989" set the record on october 27th, breaking her own record set last year with the release of "midnights." we are not even done with 2023 and cnbc already looking for nominations for the 12th annual disruptor 50 list for next spring. the ring leader of that list, the founder of it, julia boorstin joins us now with more. you start this early in the process? >> you know, we usually start the call for nominations in january, this year we wanted to give people extra time to submit their nominations. we usually get well over a thousand nominations for the 50 spots on our list. the application form is open on our website now.

cnbc.com/disruptors. we're starting our call for the 12th annual disruptor 50 list at a time when the startup ecosystem and the business for raising money for startups is going through a really rough time the third quarter saw its lowest overall venture deal value in six years, the lowest number of deals in three years, with u.s. vc fund-raising on pace to set a nine-year low. plus, companies that are managing to raise funds increasingly are doing so at lower valuations the number of down rounds in the third quarter climbed to a ten-year high with 26.4% of all rounds completed year to date done at a flat or reduced valuation. now, lack of access to capital means more companies are going out of business. carter reports that 87 of the startups on its platform that had raised at least $10 million had shut down this year as of october and that's twice the number that shut down in the same category in all of last

year and after only 27 companies went public in the third quarter, there is a pileup of companies waiting to go public an estimated 75, according to pitch book, including some big names such as stripe and chime and as we look ahead to our next list, our first 11 list, how about identifying some out performers so now we're looking for private company nominations for the 12th annual list, which will debut in the spring to learn more, scan the qr code on your screen right now or go to cnbc.com/disruptors andrew >> i don't know if this is an unfair question to ask, i know you spent a lot of time focusing on founders and disruptors of new and often times new companies, is there anybody you can sort of share a name or two of somebody you think that has been remarkably disruptive in the year 2023? >> i say looking back at our

last list, which debuted in may, the number one company on the list was openai, which makes a lot of sense given its impact on the tech ecosystem and we did see a huge number of a.i. companies on the list. i expect looking ahead to this next list a.i. will continue to be a dominant theme. and i have to point out that when it comes to fund-raising, even though we have seen this overall contraction, there are two areas that have been more resilient, a.i. is, of course, the first one, and then the other one is biotech and life sciences for various reasons, a little bit more recession resistant if you will we'll see some companies in that space and we also have seen a rise in green tech companies, companies focused on various environmental issues and impacts. i can't name any specific names, we're just starting to collect nominations. >> one final question then because you're talking about companies going out of business and i imagine the list oftentimes does have companies that, you know, some companies have great success and others -- do you have a number of how many it is like venture capital

all you need is, you know, a couple home runs and the rest don't have to go anywhere. what does the list look like -- >> one company on the disruptor 50 list and a couple of times is convoy, a logistics shipping company and it ended up selling -- going out of business and selling its assets to flex ford, another logistics and shipping company i think the details of that story will come out over time, and hopefully we'll be able to report out of that story, what went wrong to this big unicorn in the logistics space that went out of business. but now it is part of flex fort and other disruptor companies. we'll see more of the companies on our list not make it, but more of the companies, greater percentage of the companies will succeed. >> julia boorstin, put your recommendations on put them in. thanks still to come, senator elizabeth warren clamoring for a wealth tax

will that ever become a reality? we'll kick off that debate next. and battling anti-semitism on campus. the president of brandeis university ron leibowitz will tell us how his school is facing these challenges "squawk box" returns in a moment i think i'm ready for this. heck ya! with e*trade you're ready for anything. marriage. kids. college. kids moving back in after college. ♪ here's to getting financially ready for anything! and here's to being single and ready to mingle. who's ready to cha-cha?!

welcome back to "squawk box. we're about an hour away from

the release of the november employment report. payroll is expected to come in at 190,000 ahead of the numbers, the futures now are basically unchanged. little bit of weakness in the nasdaq, nothing to write home about. treasuries, not a lot going on also in wait and see mode with the ten-year just under 4.2. and bitcoin is somewhere between 43 and 44,000. 43,600. >> we're watching shares of docusign earnings of 79 cents a share beat expectations of 63 cents. revenue also beat expectations the company's current quarter revenue guidance came in stronger than expected as well and that stock is down by about 1.5% despite all of that docusign's ceo will join us at about 8:15 a.m. eastern time okay thanks, becky. let's talk about senator elizabeth warren who joined us yesterday on "squawk box," fresh

off the latest drilling of financial ceos we asked her about a potential wealth tax take a listen. >> the people who are paying the highest percentage of their wealth are middle class families and the wealthiest, the billionaires in this country, are paying virtually nothing jeff bezos pays a lower marginal tax rate than a boston public schoolteacher. and that is fundamentally wrong. and the idea that you say, oh, i'm worried that billionaires won't be able to be represented in congress and taxes will get out of hand, give me a break >> joining us now for a debate over the wealth tax, which became an issue because of the supreme court case that is being brought or being brought this week, they were hearing, we're going to be talking to former white house chief of staff mick mulvaney, the co-chair of the strategic advisers and former

priesident biden treasury official we went back and forth with senator warren about a wealth tax. i'm curious if you take the wealth tax and put it to the side, one of the other things we talked about was just the potential of taxing folks who effectively take loans against their assets to avoid taxes. and that was something that she said wasn't exactly what she would want, but it might be a way of capturing some of that tax. i think capturing sort of the spirit, if you will, of the way taxes are supposed to go in the united states. but maybe you have a different view >> no, yeah, sort of, obviously do i have a different view than elizabeth warren probably most of the time. i saw interview. she was going down that road to say, look, let's try to figure out a way to stop people from borrowing against their assets, not realizing any income and she went from there, i thought that was a reasonable conversation, immediately into a wealth tax. those two things have absolutely nothing do with each other

my guess is she is sort of going through the mental gymnastics on this idea of preventing people from borrowing against assets, getting money without paying tax on it and using that as an excuse to do what she really wants to do, which is sort of soak the rich. if she had come out in the next thing out of her mouth was why don't we take away the deductability of interest on those types of loans, maybe that's a conversation you can find some middle ground. i don't think that's where senator warren wants to go she's looking for an excuse to do the wealth tax she wanted to do for a long time >> katie, are you in the -- are you in that same place do you -- are you a fan of a broader wealth tax >> what i really like to see is for us to make sure that we address the underlying issues that senator warren was talking about, which is the fact that over the past 40 years we have run a massive experiment in trickle down economics where we have serially cut taxes on the wealthiest and large corporations and what we have seen is stag assnant wages and

skyrocketing inequality and concentration of power within our economy. the tax system used to play the role of checking some of that. but our inability to get at folks who hold their money in assets over the long-term and who are able to use accounting gimmicks to access that cash without ever paying tax on it is a real fundamental problem for our tax system and it is throughout the code and so, you know, i think it is a little bit silly to call this mental gymnastics, when what we're trying to do is find some way to get at the fundamental unfairness of our current tax code and rebalance economic power in the economy >> and, mick, do you think the tax code is fundamentally unfair >> no, i think taxing income is fair i don't like it necessarily, but it is legal and we have been doing it now for 100 years i think what you're trying to -- what they're trying to do is use

the circumstances to get what they always wanted, which is this is -- it is not about fairness, it is about envy keep in mind, what i don't like about the tax code is that roughly half the people in the country don't pay it you heard senator warren talk about the rich not being represented in congress. that's not the billionaires and the upper one tenth of 1%. it is the half of the people in the country who pay taxes on income and the other half who don't. you end up in a situation where more people are voting to tax somebody else. that's fundamentally unfair. that's inequitable. >> in terms of where we are right now, by the way, with the bill about funding israel and ukraine and the like, and having a par y for, as somebody who cas about budgets, could you like the idea that the pay for comes from effectively defunding the irs? >> i like the idea that it is a pay for. i happen to disagree with senator roger marshall last week when he said he didn't care how

it got paid for. i was waiting for him to say so long as it gets paid for he didn't go there some things are too important not to do. there is nothing wrong with saying, look, we have extraordinary expenses, let's figure out what other things we won't need to do in order to pay for that that is not the wrong conversation to have in washington on israel and ukraine and taiwan and on anything. >> the idea of defunding the irs, there is a view on some republicans that you want to defund the irs because you effectively want to starve the government of money, there is another view that, you know, has been put out there, i think, potentially unfairly but i'm sure you can disagree that it is going to be used and targeted against people politically we have police in this country most of whom are, i think, great patriots who do a great job and there is some bad apples who do some bad things. and there has been arguments

about defunding the police i don't think you're on the side of defunding the police because of the bad apples. >> on the irs thing, probably a little bit of truth in all of that you can have that debate i'm coming at it from a different perspective, more boring geek inside the beltway perspective with my old director hat on it is a gimmick. we knew how to do this, we chose not to do it the way they count is if you give another dollar to the irs, it will bring in another $1.20 or whatever. the more money you say you're spending on the irs, the more money you say you're bringing in and that's how you pay for the other stuff you want to spend money on that's one of the reasons i don't like the irs program >> excuse me i would like to cut in here and correct the record on a couple of things. first of all, using the irs cuts as a pay for is a gimmick. it is absolutely the case that if you invest in enforcement against wealthy tax cheats, you

bring in more money than you spend on irs enforcement you also, by the way, improve service for the millions and millions of american taxpayers who pay their taxes every year, and currently have to do it through corporations that extract profit and sell their data to other major corporations for advertising purposes against their will also, it is offensive to pretend that half of americans do not pay taxes. the individual income tax is one slice of the way that we fund our government, and american workers pay payroll taxes, american workers pay sales taxes, they pay property taxes, whether they own or rent their home, and these taxes are higher than the taxes that the wealthiest people in this country pay across the board i think it is completely unacceptable to keep this old going about makers and takers and the american people see

right through it. >> you know where i'm going with that, your payroll taxes go for your social security and medicare and medicaid. your property taxes go for the staff back home, your sales taxes go for your stuff back home, i'm talking about the federal income tax, which goes to run everything behind me in this town, everything in in this nation the federal government does is paid for out of the individual income tax that half the people in this country don't pay for. they're getting their national defense for free, they're getting their department of education for free, that's unfair look, can we go to a flat tax and have jeff bezos pay a higher pos percentage of his ttachax rate? let's have that conversation >> excuse me, saying that your property taxes go to things back home, and then talking about the department of education, the things back home are teachers, who are also funded through the department of education. and the reason that you don't want to talk about teachers or cancer research or social security and the importance of

back stopping that for all the working people across the country who do pay into the system, but are currently facing economic preparity while others soak up profits and, you know, hold them in intergenerational wealth without ever paying taxes, the reason you don't want to talk about the specifics is all of those things are popular and they are things that people want the federal government to invest in and the american people understand that the rich and corporations are not paying their fair share, especially after the trump tax cuts >> kitty and mick, i think we should make this a daily segment. we'll invite you back and continue it. it is a longer conversation. thank you. have a great weekend "squawk box" is coming back right after this

as negotiations over the future of fossil fuels intensifies at the cop 28 climate summit in dubai, side deals are on other issues are already being made and the money is flowing diana olick joins us from dubai with more on this. diana? >> good morning, becky major focus we're seeing at this cop, agriculture, which accounts for 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions. today, an announcement from the u.s. department of agriculture about an investment fund launched with the uae that has now grown to $17 billion we caught up with agriculture secretary vilsack here this morning. >> we're encouraging more sprint

innovations, an effort to try to get more technology and innovations into the system, so that we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, sequester more carbon, being more climate smart. 78 sprints basically resources being invested in everything from reducing methane and livestock to creating new apps for farmers worldwide, so they have a better understanding of how their soil is operating under a difficult climate. >> this includes working with major food producers on this as well as leaders in sustainable aviation fuel, largely made out of biomass we need policies, we need the inflation reduction act which is really been a historic legislation to help us build a foundation so that we can signal to all of those bankers out there, all those investors out there, that the capital needs to flow into sustainable aviation fuel so that we can reach our goals and net zero by 2050. >> and she said with several other executives that i've

interviewed here that she sees the cop as the new davos that's how much the synergies between cooperations and governments and deals are happening here >> how different is this cop than, let's say a cop four years ago. i wonder because there has been a lot of talk that different administrations mean that money and deals makes sense, when they didn't in the past what happens if there is a new administration next time around? >> well, look, this cop has been all about action they're calling it the cop of action there were corporate executives there, but not the level we're seeing here and the money flowing and the deals being made and everyone saying that this is really the biggest business story of this generation climate, money, climate, tech, every aspect of it so the question is if we have a different administration that pulls us out of the paris agreement, the corporations will likely stay. we saw that before and we probably will see it again becky? >> diana, thank you. diana olick.

coming up, turbulent times on campus, the rise of anti-semitism and hate speech causing great concern across america. president of brandeis university ron liebowitz will tell us what his school is doing to address anti-semitism, while upholding free speech. "squawk box" returns in just a moment

brandeis university founded by the jewish community in 1948

to counter anti-semitism weighing in on the terror attacks in israel and their president ron liebowitz discusses what the school is doing upholding free speech. brandeis president liebowitz joins us this morning. good to see you, president liebowitz. did you have an idea, would you say, three, four, five years ago, that there was an undercurrent to the extent of what we've seen on college campuses since october 7th let's try -- one second. >> thank you for having me, first of all. >> you're welcome. start over. >> i've been president since 2016 and anti-semitism has been a problem for a long time on college university campuses. here it's a little bit more focused, because we are a

jewish-founded institution with roots, and years ago started looking into how we might address the issue. i started a conversation with robert kraft and the foundation to combat anti-semitism who himself was dedicated to this issue, and together we have created a three-pronged program here at brandeis that began before october 7th to begin addressing issues of anti-semitism. >> i'm pretty familiarwith brandeis and you probably know my professor, one of the great alumni of brandeis, still -- biology professor at m.i.t. and play golf at leo j. martin's -- i know it well you're not very far from harvard is my point, i guess, president liebowitz, and distancewise you're not very far, but i would say in terms how you're approaching this, you're very far? >> as i said, we're very conscious of this issue, who we

are and the values upon which the university was founded so i believe as leader of the institution we should take a leadership role in higher education and try to develop programs that try to help university leadership recognize anti-semitism and address it we had our first, big gathering last month in november planned way back in the spring, that brought more than 100 administrators to brandeis university presidents, provosts, deans, dei office, admission officers deans of students, to talk about these issues we had legal scholars, title 6 experts, freedom of speech experts here dei experts to talk about the issues over a two-day period and it was quite a good conference. >> right i understand that. did you witness any of the testimony from the harvard's president, penn's president or m.i.t.'s president, and what would beyour, did they not attend your seminars >> i did see portions, not the

whole thing. i've read now reactions to those testimonies. they themselves did not attend, but, of course, they all sent teams here to brandeis and their staff members did, in fact, engage in these issues we had a meeting of university presidents in washington in october about eight days after the incident and we had a good conversation among the presidents about the incident. i spoke, i think, very forthrightly about the issues on catch is, and we did have long conversations. >> well, when you're -- obviously you're trying to address the root causes of what is, now we know, a pretty significant problem, president liebowitz, and i'm wondering if you can try to identify any of the root causes? you saw congresswoman stefanik in he confers wrote an op-ed piece today. in harvard you can be thrown out i guess, for something called

cis heterosexism, fat phobia or misgendering someone, but the harvard president was unable to say that calling for an inte intefadeh, global intefadeh or genocide to the entire jewish race, that that was as bad as misgendering someone you have serious work to do here. >> we do we do have serious work to do and i think presidents, rather not speak about other presidents, rather talk about what we're doing i will say that the whole issue of academic freedom, freedom of speech, more or less has been what confused in all of this if you step back and ask yourself what's going on here? the purpose, really, of the university, free speech is critical to american democracy, and to all democratic institutions first and foremost is really providing a safe and good environment for learning and to the extent one can express free speech without

crossing that line into inhibiting others from learning, that's really the key here no one's really talked about stopping free speech just that you don't choose to use some speech that, of course, inhibits the freedom of others to learn and to do it in an open way. that's what's out here, if you stick to the strict definition of free speech we are private institutions also there is leeway what we can do we all have codes of kauct and those spell out things much more stringent. codes of conduct than the first amendment it's not that -- it's not that gray at least it wasn't for me. >> no. doesn't seem to be, and i know it's a gray, i don't know it's a gray area at all, the whole swath of jewish students afraid to walk down their campus, fearing for their safety you know, theoretical things are one thing, free speech versus, you know what you're allowed to say, but the basic safety of a student on a college campus should not be something we're debating about and we've lost our way, president liebowitz and

need to get it back quickly, and your efforts hopefully will go a long way towards that. good to have you on today. thanks. >> thank you, joe. micong up, jobs report just ahead, "squawk box" coming right back. ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ the cloud makes it possible to expand your infrastructure. but to make it powerful enough to connect your data wherever it is, you need cdw and netapp. cdw experts will work with you to understand your needs, then customize a netapp cloud services solution to integrate data management for all your clouds, helping you reduce spend, improve security, control data 24/7

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good morning it is jobs friday in america we're now just 30 minutes away from the big number. futures come ahead of data dow and s&p currently on pace to snap a five-week winning streak,

but it wouldn't take huge gains today for all of that to change, and we're going to talk about it meanwhile, where does tesla go next here after a sizzling 2023? a top analyst ready to join us who says the answer could very well be dow. final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin on assignment in chicago. not much happening in the markets yet, but 8:30 is right around the corner with the jobs report november jobs report didn't come last week on december 1st one of those months where, i think they do it on the 2nd.

normally friday happens to fall on the 22 e2nd. >> i forget the rules, why it ends up on the 8th. >> seems we just did the october report but i think 190 is expected after adp equity futures in the red now with nasdaq showing biggest percentage loss. there's the ten year for, you can see, 418, below 4.2. oil prices just above 70 this morning. get right to -- oops sorry. i think i want you to -- you introduce santoli so much better. >> thank you, joe. let's get right to our senior markets commentator mike santoli. mike, we set this up this morning as the weight of the week weighing on what happens today at 8:30. we'll see, but there is a lot riding on so many things within this jobs report >> becky, plenty of anticipation markets kind of gotten coiled up

tight in advance of that now, we've been hesitating better part of three weeks in the s&p 500 right below those july highs actually, really steady way to, sort of digest the big rally from november. this flattened us out. somewhat like we saw in the spring big comeback off the silicon valley bank correction and eventually resolved to the up side needing off a lot of data suggesting moderating, healthy economic growth. disinflation maybe giving the fed a little room for flexibility and go easier next year without necessarily having to rescue the economy. look at the evidence of a resilient consumer alongside relaxed, or really plunging now gasoline prices. so consumer discretionary stocks equal weight and outperforming gasoline one of the major tenants of course, 30-year fixed mortgages down to 7% from 7.8.

coming off the growth pressure the question whether we get a goldilocks number from the jobs report led to expect by the leadup data. had a 1% gain in s&p each of the last two jobs fridays. see if that has bearing what's going on yields seem like they want to bounce here. have heard a lot of commentary about a little more speculative froth in the market. people rushing into some of the faster-moving, more aggressive, less profitable parts of the market got to have a long-term chart. here's the arc invest etf along with coinbase. of course, i think now biggest holding of the etf you see yep, a pretty good aggressive move higher really just to the top of a depressed range that's been in place better part of two years i don't think we're at a point of saying people are way over skis s getting excited about it just yet. >> we did have an analyst tell us earlier, anvestor this morning, concerned getting over

our skis you said top of this, coiled tight. i guess expectations are pretty high in terms of thinking that the fed's going to back off? >> i would say that's true i mean, i think we know the next move is very, very likely to be lower. i'm not that fixated on the magnitude of cuts now priced in to the feds funds future markets. a few months out, not a lot of precision in those predictions to me, it's more about, we know that the fed is certainly, looks like it's done it has room to operate we still have an economy that's in okay shape. i think that's enough, if yields peaked yields may be looking to bounce here just a little because they've come down so far so fast >> and quickly, the numbers you'll be watching for beneath that fed line number, unemployment at the participation rate average hourly earnings? all of the above. >> fixating on wage side of it to see if that fits with the idea of a what loosening labor market for sure.

then trying to pull out the strike effects just to see what underlying trend is in terms of payroll. >> mike, thank you see you later. meantime first guest this hour says his bit of idea underweight position in tesla. delivery revenue estimates coming down materially, he says. also warning of growth narrative around the company that he believes could weigh on the multiples. joining us, research analyst, and also going to ask him, of course, about apple getting the $3 trillion market cap level again and regulatory in china risks for that company let's start with tesla you have been negative on tesla, but now sounds like you're more negative >> good morning, andrew. look, i think the backdrop is important here, both the market and for tesla. so the magnificent seven have had an incredible year, everyone knows. i think there will be scrutiny

on these names as we begin next year and people level set saying where do we go from here we think tesla's earnings will be flat next year, they're going to have to lower expectations around deliveries for next year, we think, and the stock is trading at nearly 100 times our estimate for next year's earnings. and so if collectively the magnificent seven are going to potentially pull bark and investors will think about these stocks more critically, certainly tesla is one of those companies where i do think that we could have underperformance tesla did well stock all doubled despite earnings were essentially cut in half analysts thought $6 in earnings a year ago end up doing under $3.

stock remarkably resilient because people believe growth is still intact i think '24 and '25 will be tough years for tesla. you run a risk losing growth narrative and it's hard to sustain a multiple like that if people are doubting your growth. >> let's just -- let's just talk about the growth piece of it, and i understand the margin compression piece of it, but i'm curious sort of what you think about the growth piece of it, and the idea, if you believe -- look, a long time. you need the breakthrough to happen if you believe the self-driving car narrative, believe the tech narrative, does that change any of these dynamics? >> clearly if you -- if tesla was able to deliver and regulators able to accept whole self-driving a year from now, that adds potentially $10,000-plus in profit per car that dramatically changes the

economics. i think our belief is that it's difficult to know when whole self-driving will kick in, but we think it's years, and likely multiple years not only from a technology perspective but perhaps more importantly from a regulatory perspective. and then, you know, i think more importantly, we -- we think over time full keffe driving when become demack tra tidemocratized tesla may well get there first and able to command higher prices for a few years, but ultimately, like everything in the auto industry, competition drives down pricing. that $10,000 per car, if tesla is able to capture that three, five years, could be $1,000 to $2,000 per car five years after that. >> pivot to apple. talked about it crossing the $3 trillion mark. what do you think valuation of this company should be 12 months

after? >> i think that's the big controversy around apple with saying this is a consumer stock. a great, quality compounder. nike trades historically at 30 to 35 times. why can't apple trade at that? about 31 times now. you know, the question, i think, always with apple is, can you buy something else potentially with better growth at a less price? and certainly a lot of investors i talked to say, you can buy microsoft with a better growth profile at a similar price or google or facebook at a better growth profile for a lower price. and i think that's the debate. what's really interesting to me is to look at apple's largest shareholder. warren buffett he's typically been a buyer at closer to 20 times, and the few times he's sold apple is closer to 30 or 31 times, which is about where apple is. so i think apple is a great,

quality compounder but given its valuation level and given that the iphone 15 is not going to have a great cycle, it's hard to see it materially outperforming over the next year i think if we saw a pullback in the stock, more broadly among large cap stocks that would create a better entry point. >> quick throw in to the mix the risks around china how should that be calculated in the model, when you're doing valuation work on apple? >> sure. yeah no it's a great question, andrew, and apple does have outsized risk to china. not only because 20% of its revenues are there, but because 90% of its production and supply chain are there. that's the existential risk. the talk about, you know, curbs whether government employees, state-owned enterprises owning iphones, which was prevalent in the news a few years ago, we're not really seeing a dramatic change in china.

there's always been some issue with both soes and government employees in some areas carrying them we're not seeing that escalating, but there is a broader existential risk that a higher for apple than it is for other companies, if geopolitical tensions increase. >> right. >> and that is something that people factor into valuation. >> toni, always good to see you. see where things land. have a good weekend. it's friday. that's what's going on right now, joe. >> yep it is. november jobs report it's about -- 15, 20 minutes away next, ceo of docusign joins to us break down fourth quarter earnings stay tedun you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

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welcome back, everybody. shares of docusign trading lower after third quarter earnings the signature company beat expectations giving strong current quarter revenue outlook. slowed because of the pandemic obvious. ceo said on earnings conference call is company is in the early stages expanding beyond its signature business and also said there's been meaningful progress

towards the company's goal he joins us now. just passed one year in the top job docusign and i think the picture improved over the course of the morning shares down but by less than 1% at this point. >> yes i do think it was a very solid quarter for docusign we beat on all operating metrics. i was particularly proud of the operation's execution side of the company. we ended up posting record operating income and record cash flow so i think that speaks well to the team's efforts, and other priorities, the perspective, we are continuing to up our pace of innovation and release add number of exciting things here this quarter talked more about it and i'm looking ahead to a very rapid schedule over the months going into broader agreement management. >> what are you doing beyond the signature business, the key

business everyone knows you for? >> think about all the steps in the agreement journey from drafting to editing, negotiating, settling, identifying the identity of the other party. then the signing piece and then once the agreement is signed, how do you actually manage the agreement? we are looking to improve all of those steps an made substantial advances on that front that's really untapped white space in the enterprise software world. most companies handle agreements incredibly manually even today that's fantastic opportunity for us, and we are hearing from customers, responding very positively to our product reviews, and so that is our core focus, and what can give us, i think, our next phase of growth. >> explain that a little bit i understand docusign. in fact, i signed something on docusign during the show in the last half hour or so but when you talk about expanding beyond just signatures what do you mean

like, the signatures part has gotten rid of, i think, the need for me to send stuff on fax machines. >> right. >> does it -- i feel like it gets rid of the idea of a need for a notary most of the time, too. all of these other things what roles do they get rid of what does it make it more efficient? >> an example. most companies have various points signing new agreements for customers or with vendors. those have to get drafted, customized for sending the document to and then perhaps having identity of the person and then decide who needs to approve it internally and externally all of that is custom work flow. today that takes a monumental effort to design that. if i want to change that, create a new consumer experience and do something different like that, that's, you have to stitch that together manually for many solutions. we're going to make that complete dragon drop and just pull in all the different pieces of docusign sweep as well as connections to third parties like microsoft and sap and

sa salesforce and other companies by far we have the most -- >> i'm confused. cutting out other people, other software vendors who is disrupted in this process? >> make development of software internally simpler and mean whether you are a sales person, purchasing person or lawyer, you can spend a lot less time on bureaucracy on paper pushing and focus on the stuff that's really, humans can add value. >> bad news for paralegals and assistants >> you know, i think the work will evolve for workers in all areas, as a.i. comes into assist our belief is that a.i. and these work-flow toolless assist people in becoming more productive i don't -- especially what it's going to deduce, not like less financial analysis performed in fact, a lot more of it because it became so up easier

and much more productive. >> a digging in deeper on that you expanded, i think of docusign being pretty universal. took over the marketplace for what was there, if investors want to see growth you'll have to expand in other places, and what is the total addressable market for all of these new things that you've laid out? >> yes even for our core signature product there's still plenty of room to run. most companies may have automated two work flows maybe ten in some cases. but think about the number of processes internally ending up requiring a signature and handling agreement, it can number 50 or 100 different work flows. we have tremendous opportunity even with the clients we already have and as you point out we already service the vast majority of fortune 500. going internationally, at an earlier stage of adoption, and so we have a huge growth opportunity there. that's why our business

internationally is growing faster and why we're investing there. then there's the opportunity to sell more things to the customers we already have. fortunate to have 1 million and a half, incredible number for a software company and have a great opportunity to sell more of these management solutions i alluded to earlier. >> 1.5 million paid entities include corporations and consumers, too >> consumers don't typically pay us they're signers. >> hit me up to get you to store my documents >> entities. could be two personal law firms, your local plumber to a mid-market firm out to the very largest companies. we are invasively used in 24 of the top 25 banks in the u.s., they use docusign. >> okay. thank you for your time today. >> my pleasure thank you for having me. >> andrew? thanks. coming up, in just, nine, eight minutes, the number of the

morning. we are talking about november jobs expecting a pick-up addition of 190,000 jobs last month up from 150,000 in october we'll find out whether those estimates are right or wrong and what a goldilocks number means for the markets as a reminder, heading to a break, you can always get the best of "squawk box," tayly podcast follow squawk pod on your favorite podcast app. listen anytime becky quick has an extended version of her interview with charlie munger, fabulous, take a listen download that immediately. we're coming rightac bk. ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business.

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coming up, breaking jobs data november's employment report is next "squawk box" will be right back. knock, knock. number one broker here for the number one hit maker. -thanks for swinging by, carl. -no problem. so what are all those for? uh, this lets me adjust the base, add more guitar, maybe some drums. -wow. so many choices. -yeah. like schwab. i can get full service wealth management, advice, invest on my own, and trade on thinkorswim. you know carl is the only front man you need. (phone rings) oh, i gotta take this, carl. it's schwab. schwab. (feedback rings) have a choice in how you invest with schwab.

welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. just a few minutes away. almost -- just under two minutes from the government's november employment report. ahead of the number bring in our jobs panel to give us instant analysis what it all looks like. a professor of economics and public affairs at princeton university she's also the former chair of the white house council of economic advisers under president biden. and soon to be president of the brookings institution stephanie link investment strategist and portfolio manager at hightower and cnbc contributor

and sans christmas tree, from home and our own steve liesman. rick santelli, who was painting the town red last night with andrew apparently, and -- yeah no a nod. and associate professor -- >> i'm not supposed to say anything >> i've heard that what happens on rust street stays on rust street. >> yes >> not to tell. >> exactly and professor of public policy and economics at georgetown university as well as a former deputy assistant secretary of the treasury for economic policy wow. i needed, almost needed the two minutes. steve, i got, you got about 30 seconds. just, if people weren't watching earlier, mad at them, but if they weren't, what's the estimated number >> looking for 190 and a bunch

of smart people we follow, joe, upside of that like goldman, steve stanley up in the 240 area. >> 240 could be higher. rick, not having time to get estimates from everyone but where you are, rick, approximately? >> i'm right around 175, joe very close to estimates. 175. >> all right well, you might as well take it from me now anyway, rick it's time. the numbers should be there any second. >> yes she should be and they're populating now here's their november read on the big jobs, jobs, jobs report. 199,000. 199,000, a bit better than expect ations but steve referenced smart people a little too high, seems. 150,000 would be private payrolls fairly close in line with expectations a drop in the unemployment rate from 3.9 to 3.7. 3.7. the last time we were at 3.7

exactly was may. but in july at 3.5 in august, 3.8 so you can see that this is coming down a little bit, and that is a good thing high-water mark has been 3.9 our last look, which was highest since january of 2022, and it was at 4%. average hourly earnings, i don't see them populating yet on a month over month or year over year and i apologize in terms of average workweek remained a little higher than it has been 34.4 it was reverting we had 34.3 last week. had a lot of 34.4s that, the high water-mark, 34.7, beginning of last year interest rates ratch itted up. ratcheted up and as i said, i do apologize. i can't pick off the earnings month over month or year over year we do see that pre-opening

equities moved lower so i would think that the drop in the unemployment -- there we go coming across now. up 0.4 0.1 hotter than expected month over month and up 4% exactly as expected on year over year, and last month's 4.1 comes down to 4% 4% really is the low-water mark there on earnings going back to june of 2021 when it was 3.9 so earnings going down could be potentially less inflationary as we feed on higher wages. when we look to higher inflation. drop in unemployment rate probably wa merits discussion. a very quickly 62.8 on participation rate 62.8 is back up a bit. we dropped it down to 62.7 62.8 is the high-water mark. you have to go back all the way to february of 2020 to find a

higher participation rate. that truly is something to celebrate. back to the panel. >> very good thanks, rick before we get to everybody else, steve, mostly a lineup, the stock market, i don't know focusing on 3.7? off a little certainly >> yeah. i mean, let me just back out the stuff we told you we were going to back on returning strike workers first thing i went to look for motion picture industry adding 17,000 those are returning strike workers. motor vehicles, autos adding 30,000 so it's 47, a bit towards the high side of what was expected and could have obviously been additional hiring. most of that returning strike workers. then looking elsewhere, joe. again, health care keeps being a big number here. 93,000 looking at leisure and hospitality here, up 40,000. again, some pandemic themes continuing in the jobs numbers

here it is a little bit of tightness es terpecially wages going up 0% and workweek lengthening out telling me a little bit there's still a fairly strong demand for workers and unemployment rate falling is something that you don't necessarily want to see, but just be a little careful, because a lot of volatility in that household survey. wouldn't necessarily rely on it for one month. 3.7, 3.9, probably 3.8. >> actually do want to see it, but you actually don't want to see it like everything. right? steve? >> going lower -- >> no. don't want to see that. >> hey, joe, i was at francis lewis high school speaking to a great class of seniors 1,000 kids trying to explain why do we want less employment sure like, smart kids. like, huh? are you kidding me not easy to explain. >> exactly cecilia, i know that you probably -- work for the

president, you want good numbers. you want low employment. say you are advising someone on the stock market or the bond market i mean, the reason we dropped from 5% on the ten year down to where we are was the idea that things were slowing down a little from the last jobs number that we had, for october does this throw that into question, in your view >> you know, i think that the data from this week and over the last few months suggests we are seeing a labor market that is slowing. i think it's important not to overfocus on any one month, because there is volatility. these numbers may well be revised. i'm not sure what revisions did the last couple of months, since i was just pulling up trying to read the report as e were speaking these numbers may be revised look at the data total saw earlier this week job openings came down. quick rates solid. don't see layoffs but it suggests not as much hiring. in terms of unemployment,

initial claims didn't change much but continuing change increased. people mate y have a harder time finding a job. decrease in unemployment rate along with a slight increase in labor participation is interesting. >> exactly so stephanie, is there enough -- i don't know -- tightening i don't know what you call it. doesn't seem as weak as the markets would like does that change the prospects for cuts all of these cuts? 130 basis points worth of cuts by midnext year? >> cuts are coming i think, but data today and data all week long supports soft landing there's no question about it. obviously we heard the numbers, adp numbers certainly a little cooling. today these numbers i think are great. strong jobs and the inflation

numbers, average hourly earnings 4% right in line so then when you add in earlier this week the third quarter productivity numbers better than expected, as well as unit labor costs being less than expected, the inflation piece is coming down so you have better growth in terms of the overall economy maybe it's 2%. and you have lower inflation so i think eventually the fed will cut i don't think -- maybe not the first quarter, but it's going to come. >> and almost sounds like a, kind of a goldilocks kind of a not too hot, not too cold. >> yep. >> and add in productivity, we're in a pretty good place, would you say? >> yes i agree with that. i think that the number suggests that we are kind of on a good path towards low inflation, and a cooling market i think as mentioned, revisions. looking at revisions for this

year revisions stewed negative all throughout if you -- they add up to something like 13% of the headline number. so i wouldn't interpret too much into this month's reading, but what we can read from the, from the indicators is that the job market is continuing to cool and i think this is good news for the fed. there are a few things out there that we need to worry about, but on the whole i'd say we're on a good path. >> all right becky -- >> no, no. this is joe's ocd here picture behind you slightly -- and joe has -- ocd effect make meese mad i walk around leave the closet door open just to annoy the heck out of him. >> i'm leaning leaning -- to try to -- go ahead, steve, or whoever's talking. >> i want to put numbers on things asked by panel a lot ofs.

net negative 35,000 on the revisions. that was not the last month, which stayed the same 150. prior month, which revised down 35 the other thing really interesting. you had a very large influx into the workforce. cecilia talked about this. about half a million and 200,000 decline in unemployed. trouble according to household survey you put 747,000 to work i bring that up because a lot of the skeptics about the jobs market have pointed to the household survey as one that's a little weaker than the payroll survey not this time. easy you don't rely on household survey, so that's why you got this tick down in unemployment rate it's an influx into the workforce. also looking at duration of unemployment that ticked down by, from 21 to 19 weeks, joe. a big number there >> rick, i just -- you gave us all the numbers. haven't really weighed in on what you think it all means.

what do you think it all means >> first of all, to me, what it all means is, where the market's going to go and how people can profit from this information so i'll throw out there a very important technical. we had a cycle completed, 34 trading-day cycle completed in ten year note yields basically at mid night the cycle means whatever trends you see this morning you want to follow yesterday's low yields right around 409 to 411 area, that's it for a while i think they go back up. what all the diehard core people out there want to hear the thing i really focused only, just how much i trust these numbers or not so we see up 0.4 on month over month earnings okay that is the biggest going back to, what july of '22 when it was up half of 1%. look at year over year at 4%, that is the weakest since july of '21 okay that is something i find a bit disturbing especially when the

earnings is such an important aspect of why traders, of course, would maybe deem a soft landing or where we are on the inflation gps. >> i can go back to -- do we have time -- cecilia, additional insight? taking a look at any revisions, any of that? >> i also noted that the long, number of long-term unemploymented decreased in this report remains to be seen given that that doesn't quite, the more recent unemployment claims suts there was an increase from continuing claims, but overall, i agree that this is consistent with a cooling labor market. we're going to have wiggles. always expected that. but there were a lot of threats. right? geopolitical threats we have -- know we're going to have to fund the government again. we know we have longer-term threats. threats to this truly becoming a soft landing but so far the labor market seems to be quite resilient. >> stephanie, additional thoughts what's the next big data point

for you? that would make a difference on how you view things? >> definite lip the cpi number right? the important piece. i think overall inflation is coming down. if you look at the core pce number on a six-month annualized basis, 6.5%. fed wants it to get down to 2% we're making progress. the numbers today, i want jobs i want the labor market to stay strong as long as average hourly earnings don't really skyrocket. i think that 4% number is a good number and i think that's very positive for the consumer, which is 70% of our economy i think the consumer is going to hang in there and i do think 2024, you'll see return in housing market and that's a big theme for me and why i actually have been buying in the markets as of late. >> all right not i. >> joe, really quick joe, quick joe, we have two options monday. make sure everybody understand

this 87 billion 50 billion, 37 billion tens on monday tuesday, 30 billion with respect to 21 billion, 30 years and this is all because, of course, we have a fed meeting tuesday and wednesday. push out the paper before the ultimate decision. and tonight right around midnight seeing china release their cpi and ppi. just things to pay attention to. >> okay. yes, it is. >> okay. nada, i saw it happen to megan kelly with chris christie. scared me. he didn't get enough questions i want to let you finish things off here, because i don't want anyone getting mad at me >> so i would, i don't think -- i have a very different view i would add a couple of things about what to watch out for. i think that expectations, consumer expect ations are still high still have to look out for housing costs. a few things we need to watch

out for. overall, i think we are on a good path, as i said earlier i think there is a, there's a good chance that we will achieve the soft landing that the fed is hoping for but -- the last 1% going from where we are now, about 3.5% to 2% that last 1% is going to be hardest to achieve we still need to look out. >> okay. all right. i feel like -- didn't nation picture yet. thanks, panel. cecilia, nada, stephanie, steve and, look at -- look at stephanie link's -- perfect. >> hers is -- >> may be angle of the computer. >> really? >> yeah. >> we'll get the tree next week, joe. >> got me -- okay. thank you. >> so easy to mess with. coming up, we're going to -- >> don't >> speak with former boston fed pled eric rosengren what the new

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icy hot. here we go. so you can we land?m pain. you're old enough to do it in the sky now. but it's gross. there is no way we're landing. are you sure no one is watching? gwen mallard! do it now, or we leave without you. ok. welcome back to "squawk box. the november employment report showing a gain of 199,000 jobs last month slightly more than expected. unemployment now dropping to 3.7% versus an expectation of 3.9%. average hourly earnings slightly hotter than expected, and joining us to talk about impact on the fed, which meets next

week former boston fed president eric rosengren good morning talk about it. seeing markets, i was going to say gone down. dow's back up about 31 points. in juryou're jay powell and seeh numbers, job is over, or no? >> say the economy is progressing about as you expect. we had a very strong third quarter growth most economists expecting it to slow down. a bit of anomaly relative to the tune of 2.5% growth seeing in previous quarters. i think this is consistent with an economy growing around 2% with inflation gradually coming down from the fed's perspective, i think this is a soft report. from the market's perspective, it's probably a bit stronger than they were hoping for. embedded in the bond pricing right now is some pretty significant rate cuts over the course of next year.

i'd be surprise fundamental those irratified and we continued to get the kind of data that this report shows. >> so are you more in the jamie dimon camp, who's been quite vocal in the last couple weeks i interviewed him last wednesday. suggesting he thinks inflation's actually going to remain stubbornly higher than folks expect, and the idea there will be rate cuts on the other side in '24, something i also think, which is apparently the conventional wisdom in the markets, i think he questions? >> yes we're going have a summary of economic projections, and in that the fed's going to disclose what they expect for next year the market currently anticipates five cuts over the course of next year. that would be a very rapid, rapid cuts consistent with an economy slowing down more than the federal reserve would want probably not as pessimistic as you report jamie's comments were i expect the se p to probably

have two cuts over the course of next year. probably back bloated. i think the fed is going to want to see pce core inflation under 3% it's still a ways away from that right now. and i think it's going to be hard to get from a little bit below 3% down to 2%, so i think they're going to be moving fairly cautiously to make sure that they continue to make progress towards 2% as they get through next year. so, more of a -- rather than the five cuts the market had previous to this report. >> do you sit in sort of bafflement when you look at the market and you see where the market is expecting things to go and then where you think it will go now that you're not in the room, do you feel like -- how often have you been surprised at what's happened? >> so, this report doesn't surprise me, and i don't think

i'm going to be particularly surprised by this next fomc meeting. i'm not expecting much of a change my guess is the statement doesn't change it will be a little less hawkish, probably, than the previous statement, but only modestly so. i assume that the fomc's going to be a little concerned that financial conditions are easing too quickly, and i would say that traders seem to think that the federal reserve is a speedboat, and actually, it's an ocean liner, so you should be looking more at trends and not have the incoming data move the trends in a significant way. and i don't think the data we've gotten recently has done that, so data dependence doesn't mean you gyrate with every report probably when long duration treasurys got up to 5%, that was too high, and if long duration treasury securities start getting close to 4%, given my forecast, that's probably too low.

>> okay. eric, i want to thank you for your thoughtful comments and perspective on all of this wish you a happy weekend, and happy holidays thanks >> thank you >> joe >> thanks, andrew. oh, come on. >> got you >> okay. >> there you go, chuck there you go, chuck. >> do it again >> thank you, jonathan thank you. >> do it live because it drives him crazy. >> we're going to do it live coming up, much more on the markets. stop it. nuveen's sara malik is going to join us live stay tuned

a few years ago, i came to saona, they told me there's no electricity on the island. we always thought that whatever we did here would be an emblem of what small communities can achieve. trying to give a better life to people that don't have the means to do it. si mi papá estuviera vivo, sé que él tuviera orgulloso también de vivir

de esta viviendo una vida como la que estamos viviendo ahora. es electricidad aquí es salud.

oh, i like all of you with a sense of humor good job, twitter, with the leaning pictures all right, the futures after that november jobs report, actually, the dow just touching back into positive territory s&p is flat. the nasdaq indicated off by about 44 joining us right now to talk about the market impact of what we heard is saira malik, chief investment officer at nuveen

and saira, let's start with what we just heard. he was just talking about how data dependence doesn't mean you gyrate with every report, but of course, he's talking about the fed. you're focused on the markets, and we will gyrate what do you think the market should and will be doing after this >> hi, becky well, santa visited the markets early this year for three reasons. that's inflation, which is moderating, the fed signaling a pause, and economic growth which is cooling but not too cold. today's jobs data supports that, but there is one wrinkle, and that's average hourly earnings is inflationary. this is going to set up a complicated backdrop for the markets in 2024. we're rolling into the year expecting five rate cuts by the markets and the first one in march. and the pieces of inflation likely aren't going to be there by the time march rolls around, so some of this trade catching up to the rest of the market and s&p trying to cross 4,600.

i think that gets difficult, and 2024 is volatile, likely to the downside at the earliest part of the year >> is there anything that would change that perspective? i mean, we've also just heard that the economy may be weakening a little faster than the fed might like i guess the good news is that means rate cuts could come sooner the bad news is that means the economy's in trouble >> i think there's two things to watch that could change the perspective either way and that is the employment markets and the consumer the consumer is what we're most worried about in 2024. we're seeing auto and credit card delinquencies increasing significantly, restaurant spending pulling back. it's the consumer that's really driven this economy due to the stimulus in the pandemic and the era of easy money and if the consumer continues to pull back in 2024, i think that pulls the recession a little bit forward, but march is about almost three, four months away at this point, and i don't think we're going to see it that soon, and the market is going to have to price some of those rate cuts out

>> some people say this next year might be a decent year because it's an election year. you can bet the government will keep spending. i guess that's up in the air at this point, depending on what happens with the republican-controlled house. >> history is on your side in an election year about 75% of the time it is back-end loaded. it tends to start in the summer, which sets up for that more volatile first half backdrop the second issue going into this year is market valuations, which are at a premium, given the 20% run we'll have seen in the s&p for 2023, so you need to count on earnings for 2024, and it's going to be those companies that can preserve margins, the companies that we like are in sectors that can hold on to pricing power in a moderating inflation environment and manage through the economic volatility. we saw that with broadcom today, which bucked the trend with stronger networking growth than people expected. >> i think it's a little interesting what you're saying, though your concern, we've heard so many people who are concerned about the magnificent seven. you're a little concerned about the rest of the s&p 500 catching

up that raises brows for you? >> well, the reason the rest of the s&p 500 has been catching up the past number of weeks is because deals have rolled over because we're hoping for this aggressive five rate cuts. i think that's what's going to be priced out of the market swha in 2024. that trade unwinds a bit next year, though, i don't think the magnificent seven is going to perform as well as it did versus the rest of the market like it did in 2023. but i'm not betting against u.s. tech in an era of inflation continuing to moderate and rates at least at a pause and maybe some cuts later in the year, that's still positive for technology stocks. >> okay. saira, thank you have a great weekend >> you too thanks for having me let's take a final check on the markets. we're, again, seeing, after the numbers came in a little better than expected, but the unemployment rate dropped below expectations, 3.7% versus the 3.9% estimated, the futures have shaken out in the red for the most part but not major losses at this point

the ten-year, you did see higher yields ten-year was above 4.2%. the two-year is at 4.7% almost andrew, safe travels make it home safely. >> thangtks >> somebody do us a favor and twist one of these pictures for joe. go ahead lean it one way or the other you got two seconds >> see you, jonathan >> see you monday. time for the "squawk." ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. final jobs number of the year, slightly above estimates unemployment, 3 p.7%. the best participation rate since the pandemic we'll get to it all. it's where our road map begins, that jobs report, of course, november numbers topping estimates. futures try to climb higher. plus, lululemon is the bi