unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly. good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla live from goldman sachs trading floor in lower manhattan sara eisen at new york stock exchange a rare interview with goldman's head of equities the white house's response

to the jobs report cea chair jared bernstein live from washington. natural gas down 50% this year, but the largest nat gas producer in the u.s., eqt in positive territory the ceo will join us on the divergence between the stock and the commodity. first up, though, carl, let's hit the markets and the reaction to the jobs report. it's been swinging around. we are higher across the board right now. the s&p 500 is up 0.3 of 1%. energy is the top-performing sector, getting a bounce back in crude. materials are higher, industrials, information technology, financials and consumer discretionary they're all higher it's helping the nasdaq as well, especially some of those tech names that are doing the best today. we've got strength in some of the media names like warner bros. discovery, which is up 7%. paramount also nvidia higher. that's always a help topping the tape this morning, today's economic data, what it means for the fed. job creation showing let up, 199,000 jobs added to the

economy last month unemployment rate falls to 3.7% and that is 0.2% below estimates. consumer sentiment hitting the highest level since july with inflation expectations in that report, plunging to 3.1% let's bring in cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli for how, mike, the market and investors are interpreting all of this data. >> it seems like three weeks ago when we got that better than anticipated cpi number, inflation seemed like it was on the right path t bought for the market the ability to treat good news as good news. it seems like it's bearing out right now. getting a little tested. you have a bounce in treasury yields it was probably due to bounce anyway and then you get the lower unemployment rate and it seems as if there's an excuse for those to my great a little higher the market can handle it because the overall economy fits into the general zone of economic

resilience with reduced price pressures. we can't necessarily extrapolate it all in a straight line, but it seems as if it preserves a lot of room for the fed to just sort of wait, take things in, feel as if they're at the right spot for the moment, and then figure things out in terms of a change into next year. >> but you might have argued, and maybe we saw this in the initial gut reaction, that a stronger jobs report , stronger consumer confidence means the feds can cut rates into early next year. may may is too early, too. it's interesting we're seeing now a different kind of reaction >> this is the perfect real world test for the premise that i would adhere to, which is that the stock market, in particular, was not up at this level because it anticipated a march cut that was definitely in the mix we're talking about general trend towards an easing move, not a tightening move.

maybe it happens in march, but this shows you the stock market is not sitting on pins and needles saying, please, please, cut rates in march otherwise we have to go down. i think somewhere in the middle is where the truth lies. i don't think the fed is in the market of looking for the secondary input or influence on inflation. they're saying, if inflation works, we don't have to necessarily restrain the economy more than it is right now. >> we don't want to wreck a jobs market if it's not causing inflation. it also shows, if the rally holds, mike, we don't necessarily need every tick lower in treasury yields or the dollar because both are higher today. >> absolutely. and you have to stay in a comfortable zone, 4.25 or so on 10s. they can't be threatening the old highs. maybe before we pull back but right now it seems as if you can kind of live with where they are. >> got it. mike santoli, thank you. carl as you said, markets are

turning around after that higher than expected november payroll number and the drop in unemployment this morning, four of my month low. that caused a move up in the ten-year as investors worry about higher for longer. joining us at goldman sachs trading floor is head of global banking and markets. thanks for having us, for hosting us it's great to have you >> thanks for coming down here and not making me come to the studio. >> it's a long walk. let's talk about the batch of data not just the jobs but what we got from jolts earlier in the week is the market right to second guess some of these? >> i think it's goldilocks if you're sitting there and you're the federal reserve and look at the pace of incoming data, you're getting kind of what you wanted. which is certainly job openings are coming down but you still have job creation. so growth will continue to hang in there because the u.s. economy is continuing to create jobs but that's happening at a time in which the contemporaneous rate of inflation is coming down and

coming down very nicely. >> the house of goldman has been constructive all year. you were below consensus odds on recession, i think you're back to 15% what did those who question the resilience of the economy at the beginning of the year, what did they miss? >> i would say a couple of things i'd say, one, you know, appreciating how well household balance sheets came into 2023, i think, was a big -- the initial conditions were good and ongoing fiscal support obviously, we continued to sort of run deficits in $1.7 trillion a year that's providing ongoing support for the underlying economy i think the combination of those two things led to probably more resilience than anyone would have forecasted and allowed people to basically absorb these higher policy rates. >> now we're at a point where fiscal spending is a big part of the conversation and even you guys have argued you'll wind up with some normalization at the front end but maybe not as much relief at

the long end because we're worried about entitlements and a bunch of other stuff >> it's hard to see the fiscal picture improving over the near term when you think about the amount of outlays that go for debt service, the amount of outlays that go for entitlements, that go for defense spending those aren't things you would necessarily predict policymakers would pull back on fiscal concerns are out there and remain that being said, i think there is the capacity for rates to come lower in the front end. >> and that's what makes, in goldman's view, a soft landing easier in '24 than '23 because there is that pocket of available cuts should you need them is that fair >> if you look at the fed's dual mandate with unemployment and price stability, i think they're getting really good readings in both areas that allows them more flexibility. >> you think the rally has bought treasury some time? has pressure eased off on treasury >> i don't think the rally has

bought treasury some time. i think ultimately what might alleviate some pressure for treasury is if short rates come down obviously, the cost of financing is very linked to where the policy rate is. >> they were having a discussion at the top of the hour about whether this recent rally in equities was banking heavily on early cuts market's looking for 100 basis points, double the fed's own expectations are they asking for too much >> i don't think they're asking for too much i think there's probably a risk premium. i think given the fact -- i think the market consensus is the next move is going to be an ease the question is when and how much the market will always put a little more out there than maybe what the forecast is our forecast, the trading desk consensus forecast next week is that when the fed publishes its summer economic projections, it will predict -- it will forecast a median of two cuts in the latter half of 2024.

that's where we are as a desk. >> we had a discussion earlier in the week about what happened in the spring and why the regional bank crisis didn't metastasize into something larger and then was followed by the a.i. development, which you said gave the market sponsorship. >> very timely, at a time in which financial conditions had tightened subsequent to the recent bank failures all of a sudden a.i. took over and that led to financial conditions easing, largely led by a few market-leading stocks but i would say it was welcome during that time of the year. >> how do you think that rolls into '24 do use cases get more common and we build on that or how do you think that's going to work >> i'm not an engineer or a.i. expert that being said from our own experience with it, we rolled it out to engineers and coders that work at the firm we haven't rolled it out to a large cohort but we're seeing 25% productivity gains, which are pretty amazing

when you start to think about rolling it out to more programmers and more engineers, you can really start to envision real upside associated with leveraging that know-how. >> does that mean necessarily the outperformance of the s&p over the equal weight is going to continue? it's already outpacing by 14%, second most ever >> potentially i would say where i'm at on '24 is i think you'll continue to see distergs i don't think it's necessarily -- it could be a.i., it could be things related to glp1, winners and losers that benefit from higher rates versus lower rates. as you end up getting these various different things that make their way into the market, there will be winning stocks and losing stocks as a consequence of that. certainly if financial conditions are easier, that allows for more of that differentiation. >> the other big u-turn we made is china and their ability to reopen and what that would do to

global energy demand and a whole host of things do you think that's going to reverse in '24, assuming stimulus finally comes >> in terms of china, i'd say the one place we were -- the market was cause by surprise is with every other advanced economy subsequent to reopening after covid had a v-shaped recovery that didn't happen for china demand didn't come roaring back the way it did in the western world once you had reopening in terms of what that means on a go forward basis, i would say expectations are low in terms of the outlook for growth in china and so you may end up surprising to the upside there. that being said, we have a pretty cautious outlook. >> one thing that bears point to early in their arguments right now is about geopolitics, whether that's u.s./china relations or ukraine or israel how do you think that's going to filter into consensus, at least the first half of next year?

or it's too difficult to know? >> it's too difficult to know. these are exogenous events i think that will be an overhang and risk premium in the market, a wall of worry in the market. as you move through it, presumably you will get -- you'll end up getting compensated if you move through it without things escalating. >> putin today said he would run in '25, likely take him to power to 2030. energy is a huge story globally. is oil right now freaking you out in terms of what it says about demand >> no. i don't think so again, you know, all bbeit in a large range, i think we're at the bottom of the range. maybe we gravitate to the top of the range. there's nothing i look at the oil market that points to anything sinister. >> finally, m&a and ipos, but

where will the consolidation pockets be what are buyers waiting for? is it price? is it a pivot on regulation? something else >> i think a lot of things that being said, i think one big thing we put behind us is the extent to which you're not going to get policy tightening from here the distribution of rates is beneath us with respect to policy as opposed to above here that, you know, should catalyze ceo confidence because now you don't have to necessarily worry about the variance of the rate structure or certainly you say rates are going to be here or be lower. i think we're starting to see that manifest itself in people announcing deals, doing deals, having much more of a willingness to basically consummate transactions and we're seeing a lot of green shoots. >> do you think playbooks in terms of m&a are written and in a drawer and easy to pull a trigger? >> i don't know. i can't speak to whether there are playbooks and written and in

a drawer that being said, i think the marginal propensity to do things will go up relative to what we've experienced. >> timely on regulation, whether it's ftc asking for second looks or certainly the europeans, do you think that gets any easier, that friction eases off a bit in '24? >> i don't know in terms of -- you know, in terms of the cross-jurisdictional, that will depend on the makeup of the administration on a go-forward basis. right now we're in -- things are highly regulated and that certainly constrains activity. to the extent to which that eases you'll get more activity. >> it's a favorable day to talk. as we said at the top, today is taking today's news constructively. >> as it should. as it should it was a good number today. >> thanks for having us. >> thank you. >> it's a real joy to be here. ashok, co-head of global banking and markets.

sara >> that was good to get his take on so many different things. up next, the largest u.s. natural gas producer, ceo of eqt with us. plus, jpmorgan naming its top pick in the oil space for next year. llhe"sawonhetrwn that call as we wn quk t seet" comes back

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is exxon got an overweight on the stock saying it has the most attractive valuation among its american peers and most defensive dynamics in any downside case. price target there, $127 stock has underperformed this year, down about 10% year-to-date, sara. sticking with energy, our next guest is one of the biggest natural gas producers in the u.s. and joins us from cop28 in dubai, unveiling a transition plan at the conference and signing onto a new charter that

aims to investment in sustainable energy joining us now is eqt ceo toby rice toby, it's really good to have you. it is interesting that all these oil and gas executives from around the world at cop28 in dubai. you don't necessarily think of that industry as being very climate-friendly what's the significance? >> the significance is you have a lot of oil and gas operators joining cop and people are asking why are oil and gas and fossil fuel providers speaking at cop the reason is simple, c.o.p. is the biggest conference on climate. when you're talking about climate, you're talking about energy we need to be a part of that conversation specifically considering the fact or industry produces 80% of the world's energy and our participation, i think, is going to lead to some amazing solutions because over 70,000 people have joined in dubai to

talk about climate they are coming here because they are concerned they're frustrated you look at our world, the energy security is crippled, global emissions are still skyrocketing and energy poverty is growing we need to have a different approach, and i think having the oil and gas industry start leading in this energy transition is going to make a heck of a lot of a difference. our energy transition plan is simple transition the world from coal, the biggest source of emissions, to natural gas, and then transform natural gas into a lower carbon energy solution the plan is simple, practical and available right now without government subsidies >> and what about reporting emissions and transparency on that front, are you willing to do it and you think the industry's reliable? >> absolutely. and some of the conversations that we're having, it starts by showing the world that we are decarbonizing our production the oil and gas decarbonization chart you announced were over 50 companies representing over 40%

of the global oil production are stepping up to achieve some remarkable results net zero by 2050 at eqt we'll be net zero by 2025 and having low to zero methane emissions a 2035 we need to give people confidence that we can decarbonize their production and address the biggest environmental concern on methane emissions, because then we need to talk to them about how they can take that production and decarbonize the world, by using our natural gas to replace foreign coal we're taking it one step further and showing the world how we're going to decarbonize the consumption of natural gas we're talking about how we're going to leverage carbon capture and produce low to zero carbon electricity solution for the world. >> i'm curious to get your

thoughts on overall the level of u.s. liquids production and exports. is there a sense among industry observers that the administration finally listened to what industry officials were saying or what accounts for that kind of production strength? >> carl, there's a couple really interesting dynamics taking place. people need to recognize this situation. we have exports and gas prices are still low. so, anybody that has been trying to make the correlation that exports equal higher prices, you can look at what's happening right now and understand that exports are the key to keeping prices low because exports mean surplus, and surplus means lower volatility ultimately, great things for the american consumer. when you look around the world, the world currently needs more lng exports. we need to build more lng facilities and pipelines to make that happen. >> toby, thank you for joining us and bringing some attention to this issue, especially with

all the presence of the oil companies in dubai got breaking news today in the bioscience space angelica peebles has this for us. >> the fda approving two gene therapies for sickle cell disease. the first is the -- is vertex pharmaceuticals. that's the first gene editing treatment approved here in the u.s. the second from bluebird bio that drug was expected to be approved later this month. this is coming a little earlier than expected. shares of bluebird are halted right now based on this news, but this is a big day for people with sickle cell disease that's a rare genetic blood disorder we'll be back with more as we hear about the prices of these drugs and more details carl >> angelica, thank you pretty fascinating. still to come this morning, big tech may be cracking the

code a new key bank report outlines the changing on streaming and who stands to benefit the most we'll break that down. watching honeywell, they will buy carrier global for $5 billion on cash. the ceo talked on "squawk on the street" earlier today. >> we will constantly look at improving the portfolio quality through m&a. that's our strategy. m&a is our strategy. any time you bring in an asset, we look at i ht,ow it grows the core business but also adds revenue. all these years you've worked hard, you fixed it, you looked after it. maybe, it's time for your home to start taking care of you. - [narrator] if you're 62 or older and own your home, a reverse mortgage can put more money in your pocket by eliminating your monthly mortgage payments, paying off higher-interest credit cards, and covering medical costs. - you paid down the mortgage, invested in your home. i guess you could say your home owes you.

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a note from the desk of desk of keybank, showing an increase in subscription fatigue for customers and market share gains in sports for the likes of amazon and youtube tv. our julia boorstin at post 9 with a closer look what were the takeaways? >> i thought it was interesting to see that sports are working for the tech giants. sports seem to be working as well for amazon as well as youtube. that means for sports rights could go to digital bundles. there's interesting data about how consumers pay for tv bundles because of sports but they weren't so excited about paying for stand-alone sports services. we'll see what that means for the future of an espn plus -- or the traditional espn goes direct-to-consumer i have to say in terms of the stocks here, the analyst was bullish on comcast and netflix notable that comcast isn't just

appealing -- comcast isn't just appealing because of the fact it has peacock but also broadband as these streaming services continue to gain in popularity, broadband will be key. there's an interesting thing here, because i talk a lot about you and carl about how many services are people going to subscribe to the average number, they say, is 3.6% notably, 17% of people said they were extremely likely to subscribe to an additional streaming service but 13% were extremely unlikely -- or somewhat unlikely to subscribe to an additional service over the next year. those less likely were at an all-time high. >> we subscribe between three and four services? >> three and four. >> where does growth come from, pricing and consolidation? >> pricing and advertising on one hand they can lift the prices of the ad-free services they can use advertising to bring down prices of services with ads if people are only going to subscribe to 3.5, maybe 4

services, the question is, are we going to see more consolidation of some of these services we mentioned at the open that paramount led the s&p when the bell rang on some of these red bird headlines faber was skeptical about some of it. what do you think? >> talking to faber off camera it's interesting we see paramount shares surging higher, up 15% this is a relatively volatile media stock but it's on the speculation that david ellison's company and redbird would together buy a stake not in paramount but in national amusements, which is sherri redstone's company that controls a majority of the voting shares of paramount it's a little complicated. what we're ultimately talking about is whether these investors effectively would be interested in having a controlling stake in the company that controls paramount. i think the thing to point out here is that sky dance, david ellison's company, which financed the top gun "maverick"

movie, could his company be an interesting partner? there's a good question. the real question here, carl and sara, a question we've asked over and over, is sherri redstone ready to sell does she want to give up control of national amusements or paramount? there's been so much speculation. the more this asset of paramount global is under pressure, valuation under $10 billion, the more pressure there is on her to think about selling or splitting up those assets. >> $11 billion now >> 14%. >> yeah. warner bros. discovery also up 7.5% strong day for the media it's good to have you as always in new york. julia boorstin. still to come, the white house's response to this morning's jobs report. jared bernstein with us in two minutes.

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shares of lulu down this morning on soft guidance you wouldn't know it on the street a lot of positive earnings reaction after the strong q3 jpmorgan, deutsche, morgan stanley all increase their price targets while b of a and goldman reiterated buy ratiiratings. average price target around them between $500 with the stock set to close the year up 52%, 53%, sara. >> every analyst uses one word to describe lulu, conservative they're just being conservative. yesterday after market, shares were down 13% on an outlook for q4 that missed expectations. rethinking that position today european markets, they are set to close out the week higher

advancing their gains following the jobs report here in the u.s. travel and leisure stocks seeing the biggest gains with airlines outperforming. some positive economic data out of the uk to mention as well key mortgage rate dropped below 6% for the first time since june new bank of england survey showed short-term public expectations eased in the month of november. just got that read on consumer confidence as well, which showed longer and shorter term inflation expectations, carl, easing perhaps a direct response to the lower gas prices that people are feeling. we know consumers are very sensitive to that fact, but also should be welcome news for the fed and other central banks going into the meeting next week >> what do we make about the headlines that at least the ecb is going to take a tough line in terms of walking back the expectations of cuts next year >> we've already started to see that where christine lagarde, the president of the ecb, has talked about the fact that we

can't say mission accomplished just yet we're not necessarily done on inflation because they still have an inflation rate above their target and they don't want financial conditions to loosen so much that it risks flaring or spiking inflation, which would make their job even harder and take back some of the progress we've made i think that's one of the key questions into next week, carl, is powell -- the last time we heard from him was last friday it sounded like he tried a little bit to say we might still have work to do. he tried to calm down expectations but didn't do so. the market took off and rallied. will he be tougher will he sound tougher as they try to get the markets not to get too excited about rate cuts to undo some progress? >> yeah. whether or not that guidance gets more robust next week going to be a huge story. let's get a news update with our bertha coombs. >> hey, carl the chief of the united nations issued a stark warning this

morning about the humanitarian situation in gaza. he told the security council that conditions no longer allow for effective delivery of aid. he said food stocks are running out. it comes as the u.n.'s relief agency says the strip is on the brink of, quote, full-blown collapse. president biden is heading to las vegas today to showcase efforts to expand america's passenger railroads. he's expected to announce more than $8 billion for ten rail projects one of the biggest is a high-speed rail that will connect vegas and los angeles. a judge ruled today, prince pear's libel case must go to trial. the prince was trying to get newspaper mail on sunday's defense thrown out a judge said that could not happen prince harry sued a publisher following a report which claimed he tried to keep a legal fight

with the british government secret it was allegedly over his police protection after he stepped back from royal duty. sara, back over to you. >> bertha, thank you. jared bernstein is after the break on this morning's jobs report how the white house is feeling about it "squawk on the street" will be righba t ck rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. get iphone 15 pro on us. (♪♪) before you use ai to transform business, accelerate growth, predict trends, you need to begin with trust.

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take a look at the ten-year treasury yield it's higher after today's jobs report the bureau of labor statistics reporting 199,000 nonfarm payrolls were added in the month of november, higher than the estimate of 190,000. all of this coming at a crucial time for the fed, just days before it reconvenes for its final rate decision of the year. joining us to break down the data is che chair jared bernstein. chair bernstein, good to see you. >> good to see you. >> there's a lot to like in this report for investors, for i'm sure you guys at the white house, higher participation, lower unemployment rate, higher wages. does this come as a surprise so

far into the fed's hiking cycle? >> good question which i'll answer in a sec let me add another group for who this is good news. that's working americans when we have the kind of tailwind as we've seen here, as you correctly pointed out, this isn't just a monthly result. we've been running these strong job report growth reports for month after month. i don't think you mentioned the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.7% we now have 22 months in a row with the unemployment rate below 4% we don't have inflation yet for november, but we know year over year pay was up 4% my guess is that will beat november inflation that will be another month of real wage gains. that helps to put a tailwind in consumer spending, which is, of course, 70% of our economy

this kind of perpetual motion machine has been belying predictions about the economy falling off a cliff. yeah, that momentum is good to see. >> does it worry you at all for an administration that's really trying hard to fight inflation to see this kind of strength at this point in the cycle, especially with the bigger jump month to month on wages? >> so the best indicator of inflation is inflation and inflation in the pce was -- which is the index the fed watches most closely was zero in october. and, of course, the cpi is down about two-thirds off its peak. the reasons for that, i think, are pretty knowable. i wouldn't call it particularly immaculate i would call it a normalization of supply chains helping to really take down goods inflation. we know there's been some easing off of rents that enters the cpi with about a ten-month lag. we're seeing that happen on the

shelter. as the job market has cooled, and it has cooled, it's an important point here, we've seen a slower nominal wage growth that means a lot for services inflation. so, the general forecast, if you talk to market forecasters, this easing in inflation should continue. >> jared, to your point, core pce, six-month annualized is running 2.5. we know what oil has done and what impact that will have on headline cpi i think it was the b of a chief who said maybe we need to start thinking about not overdoing the fight on inflation when do you think the conversation pivots that way >> that kind of gets into the fed's knitting in a way that i don't want to do i think respecting their independence has been our number one priority let me talk about the way consumers are experiencing this. i want to read you a sentence from another report that came out this morning this is the university of michigan survey of consumers so the first sentence in the

summary is, consumer sentiment soared 13% in december, erasing all declines from the previous four months, primarily on the basis of improvements in the expected trajectory of inflation. so one thing that speaks to your question is inflation expectations have generally stayed pretty intact during this period and our theory has long been, if we can keep moving in the right dringz, easing cost, slower inflation while maintaining a tight job market, promoting real wage gains, sentiment would start to improve this is one preliminary report, i don't want to overtorque on it, but it's certainly a move in that direction. >> jared, it's not all inc inclusive, is it we keep hearing from retailer after retailer and consumer company that the low income consumer is suffering. and that we're seeing an impact and they're getting crushed by higher rates and higher inflation. >> i think if we're talking about folks in the bottom half of the pay scale, there you

really have to look at the wage. what we've seen is remarkable -- well, in a sense it's remarkable in another sense it's predictable. their pay has grown faster than that of those at the top and by a fairly significant margin. i'm talking about real pay adjusted for inflation the pay of low wage workers has significantly outpaced that of either the average or the top end. and one of the reasons for that is a tight labor market disproportionately helps those in the bottom half we've seen that time again we've seen it in this recovery as well. it is true as their excess savings burnt off, i'm sure they pulled back on some of their consumer spending. look, the question is not are we going to keep growing 5% per quarter as we did in q3 for gdp, we're not. but are we going to slow down to something that looks more sustainable, steady, soft landing kind of scenario so far i think the indicators point firmly in that direction.

>> we're facing a near historic deficit here, jared. i wonder what you guys are going to do about that in an election year, and in a year if we're still seeing good growth, we shouldn't be seeing this kind of debt levels. >> yeah, i think the answer to that is actually a very direct one. yes, what are we going to do about that that's what our budget is for. that's what we put in our budget we release one every year. we have one coming out at the beginning of next year and much like our last one, that's going to include very significant deficit reduction. we can't do that by ourselves. we have $2.5 trillion in deficit reduction over ten years in our budget that would make a very serious dent in the problem you raise. it is a challenge. no one here is dodging that or considering anything but, especially if a higher rate environment. we've gotten down to it and sharpened our pencils and working very closely with our office of management and budget have a very serious deficit reduction plan how do we achieve that

by cutting costs where there's excess spending, including in sectors that we seek to lower cost for consumers so, health care is one of them and adding very significant fairness at the very top of the tax code i think it's very important to recognize, sara, in this context, there are opponents, republicans are tracking in exactly the other direction. they want to give big tax cuts to big pharma, big tax cuts to the most wealthy, and basically figure out a way for the wealthiest people to evade the irs and participate in tax evasion. none of that's okay with this president. all of that worsens the deficit. we're going in the other direction. >> wall street will be paying attention. we're out of time. thank you for joining us on the heels of the jobs report from the white house. coming up after the break, what apple's continued shift into china and india means for

the global economy and the company's margins. when we come back.

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a number of new headlines on apple today as the tech giant looks to ease its dependence on china. our deirdre bosa is here to break it down for today's "tech check. good morning, dee. >> these are signs this morning that apple's big bet on india could start to yield real results. he said there was a number of headlines. the first report that apple is moving key eye pipad engineerin vietnam. in a year india could account for a quarter of global iphone

production, and the third headline that tata group is planning to build one of the largest assembly plants. the geological pivot it's been embarking on for years is under way. chinese consumers and supply chain have been critical to apple's success. the landscape has shifted. there were protests in the so-called iphone city in china, a government crackdown on apple devices, renewed competition from the likes of huawei, a fairly new development apple china's advantage for many years it started to look like a liability and then you adding in shifting geo politics, the shift has only become more important and more urgent over the last few years. now be sure to check out our weekly "tech check" on

cnbc.com/tcweekly along with other in-depth videos on the biggest topics in tech going back to apple, what the latest india developments may be telling us, tim cook, who pioneered the u.s./china relationship, is doing it once again, guys. the next phase is likely to be far more difficult overcoming shaky infrastructure in the country. that's one thing navigating india's independent labor movement, that's another thing. and that one is very unique to india because, of course, labor unions don't exist in a communist china. meanwhile, i do want to touch on apple's market cap it has held above $3 trillion this week and just a month ago we were talking about a lull in the underlying business. while it makes a shift to india, bofa notes china counts for a quarter of all app store revenue, part of the services business, a major growth area for the company. it's really going to have to

thread the string very carefully. >> you raise such a good point about tim cook, deirdre. we forget he did make his bones as a logistics expert back in the day. i noticed, also, nvidia will be in hanoi meeting with officials there. i wonder if you agree with the notion there will be multiple winners to the degree corporate diversifieses out of china >> i think it's happening and there's this idea in the last few years that what usedymbioti, the export chips ban has added a lot of uncertainty to its own business even though it takes a lot to get up and running, the labor unions are a challenge, it's a long-term goal the relationship with china has changed so much. we talked about the bifurcation. chips are crucial to that. technology is crucial to that.

two of the biggest winners there, apple and nvidia now looking elsewhere. three of them tell us that those efforts are finally coming to fruition it doesn't mean they're going to work but some developments at least. >> deirdre, thanks deirdre bosa today well, carl, slowing growth in luxury lead to go massive excess inventory robert frank is back with us so what's happening? >> if you look at the number of luxury items on sold, that's twice the number in general. you have people returning items at higher levels than overall consumer and you have analysts cutting growth for luxury by about half, looking at 7% to 8% growth >> is it a demand problem finally cracking

>> people look at this and say, well, the high end is shrinking. it's not about the wealthy cutting back consumers are very picky about what they're doing if something is overpriced, they're now pulling back on that >> the anecdotes that supported "the journal" piece cite this luxury goods retailer who said the conditions are worse than '08. it makes you think about execution. >> and how luxury companies get rid of these unsold goods. luxury companies depend on that perceived premium. they can't just put everything on sale f. you're lvmh, dior, you can't just mark it down. they had to do it quietly or in some cases they just buy it all

back but that's the challenge luxury companies have to keep the price high and figure out how to get rid of the stuff unsold >> that totally changes the brand perception >> when things get better they can't keep charging those prices >> a good time to go to the outlets. robert frank, thank you. news from palantir anti-semitism on college campuses front and center as the presidents of several ivy league universities were called to testify in washington. in a post on x, palantir, the software company, saying they are committed to the rule as part of the mission setting aside immediately 180 positions for students who because of anti-semitism fear for their safety on campus and need to seek refuge outside of

traditional establishments of higher education carl, just notable they're the only ones doing anything like this one of the very few companies, if any, that have actually come out pro-israel since october 7th. it's interesting given what they do, they have such a place in national defense and selling software to militaries >> a lot of commentary from the bill ackmans this week sara, we'll see you monday have a good weekend. let's get to scott wapner and "the half. welcome to "the halftime report" am i'm scott wapner. front and center this hour, the state of the rally with jobs, inflation, and the fed in focus. we'll discuss and debate with the investment committee joining me for the hour today, joe terranova, jenny harrington, steve weiss, jim lebenthal it's been a little bit all over the place. we're trying to hang positive. the s&p has gone a smidge negative there's the dow higher by about 14 the nasdaq is in the red 4.25 is the ten year we did have that hotter than expected jobs report, the ten