something new beyond the fed to kind of satisfy your call, so, i just don't see that. i think the labor markets are fine. and, you know, the economy's growing slightly above 2%. i don't think growth -- >> neil, i'm sorry, i have to cut you off again, thank you so much for joining us. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. the great rotation, is the market starting to turn its back on this year's tech titans and head toward a new set of leaders? we'll check out the breakout in industrials, financialfinancial small caps. netflix set to court new viewers with a special live exhibition tennis match. what impact will another streamer diving deeper into sports have on disney and espn? and later, snapping up shares of snap. we'll bring you the upgrade driving today's move. nike roaring higher. what's behind its one-month jump

of 12%? and buyout talks giving macy's a boost. i'm melissa lee. on the desk tonight, tim seymour, dan nathan, and guy adami. and we start off with the latest sign that the great rotation may be under way. big tech stops dropping to kick off the week. meta leading the losses, down more than 2%. the so-called magnificent seven losing $160 billion in market cap just today. but the broader market seemed to respond to the megacap selloff with a big shrug. all three major averages finished the day in the green with the s&p with its highest cl close since march 2022. so, what can we glean from this great rotation in the markets? now, first of all -- >> hmm. >> you notice a little different look today. >> what's going on today? >> something looks awesome. >> the network got a big graphics redesign. new charts, ticker, everything. same traders. all part of an effort to make --

>> bummer. >> bigger, bolder, and easier to understand, so, we hope you like it. we think it looks amazing. but -- guy? >> people at home saying, you should have gotten rid of that jerk of adami and kept the graphics. probably right. it's very encouraging. and just to amplify what you brought up, given all those stocks you mentioned down, smh, which is 19% nvidia, which was lower on the day, was higher on the day, and that continues to sort of levitate through those prior double tops. so, it is a very encouraging sign, i'm not going to dismiss it at all. again, we play the game, if i had told you, if you had told me all the thing us just said, down 40 handles easy, obviously that didn't happen. and we saw a couple days last week that sort of mirrored today. so -- encouraging sign. but again, i'm skeptical as to all the bad news we continue to hear that's being dismissed. at what point does it matter? >> i'm glad you brought up the smh. it was basically just nvidia

that pulled back, amd higher, broadcom, your intelhigher. >> my intel. >> doing really well. >> well, there was comments out of the government talking about the invest in our own semiconductor center. there's going to be money thrown at companies that are seen as national companyies here. intel as a stock is underowned and the valuation is very different. and in data center, they are starting -- we found a bottom. what is interesting is that, yes, you are seeing broadening of the market. it didn't happen when the market bottomed on october 26th, 27th, it bottomed on the cpi november 13th. the equal weighed s&p, it's only outperformed by 3%, but it is important, and we have seen some other -- i would say some sectors have done better than others, even in the more equal weighed. banks are obviously done very well, energy has underperformed and some of that related to some

of the macro. but i would get back to, let's be clear, qqqs, nasdaq 100, outperformed the s&p today and the semiconductors are up 2.4. if you look at a relative performance chart of the nasdaq 100 to the s&p, look, that's an uptrend that's a really nice chart from august. and if you look at where semiconductors are going, i still think that they have leadership. for the -- the mag seven, maybe it was slightly different. today was not a great day. look at software. look at some broader parts of the tech sphere. really outperforming and, in fact, i think some of these names are underlooked. you look at a crowdstrike, snowflake, guy talks all the time about palo alto, i mean, some of these names have been must-owns and they're still going higher. >> if we get through, obviously cpi tomorrow, fed meeting on wednesday, and it's just benign, it is, i mean, white flag here, you know, like we're off to the races. when i say off to the races, we're, like, going back towards that 4800, that's how the markets work, and we're at this

time of year where there won't be any data unless there's something that we can't foresee, maybe geopolitical and the like. and you just have to kind of make a decision. the stuff that got us here, it's rotation right now. i look at that equal weight up 14% from the october 27 low and i look at the s&p that's up 12.5%. i don't think that's really -- >> that's not crazy. >> i think when you look at the smh making new all-time highs today, with nvidia down 2%, that is impressive, when you think one-fifth of that index, or etf, is that one stock. but again, broadcom, i mean, you could have had all you wanted two days ago, down 15% from where it is right now, they gave a quarter, they gave the guidance, the stock wasn't moving, we're sitting here on the desk, that was the same thing that went on with amd. it's funny. sometimes in markets, people get a little geeked up for all the wrong reasons. at the time, when google or alphabet was demonstrating this ge gemini i n gemini, it wasn't doing

anything. and everything that i've read over the last five days since that move is not good for alphabet and gemini, relative to openai, their own execution. so, to me, it means that investors want to do the things they know how to do. they know that rates are down, the dollar's down, inflation expectations are down. i'm going to trigger guy here, imseem it seems like a goldilocks moment. >> goldilocks and three bears. >> three chairs today. >> love it. can't get enough. >> i hear what everybody is saying. it is interesting. julian is going to talk about his prognostications, but there's so many things to be concerned about, but what seemingly is stopping it, the rising of the s&p 500.

it's the judge and jury right now. my incorrectly, you know, my concern for awhile has been at some point, the market's going to start to take notice and matter, it hasn't happened yet. >> when do you give that up? >> i don't know. i mean, nothing's -- the things i have concerned about are long. these things are long tails, long cycles. they're not going away. peace is not going to the declared overnight. bank credit, leading economic indicators down 19 months in a row, that doesn't change on a dime. all those things have to filter through. >> and some of those long kind of tail trades, i totally believe in that. i believe at least in some of the investing that i've done over my career, especially in international, the dollar, i would say, until last october, but then obviously has had a couple of very strong bouts this year where it's pushed higher. 13-year bull market. 13-year bull market in the dollar. gold, one of the best 20-year charts going. and they are emblematic of what's going on with the fed and monetary policy.

the minute -- and look at bitcoin. and i'm not -- you know, there's much more informed people than me on bitcoin. and i remember brian kelly saying this two years ago, when the fed's done or when the market is going to sniff out the fed's done, bitcoin is going to have a big rally. there are asset classes that are playing the long game right now and i think some of those trades are on. >> what happens if we have a situation where, say the cpi data is a little hot? we have some data that starts to heat up? some of the geopolitical hot spots heat up, we have the stockpiling, we see a greater push towards deglobalization, reshoring, all this stuff is inflationary. what if we have a ten-year back above 4.5%? how do you think stocks with a 12 1/2 vix are going to react to that? to me, i just don't see that as particularly bullish. i don't really see where valuations are right now. and i know no one cares about valuations right now. no one scares, trust me. but they will care, and it will be one of the reasons why when they're careening lower, because ifthere's ever a fundamental

reason to sell the mag seven and we may know in late january when we get q-4 earnings and q-1 guidance, every visibility they have, there's a reason to sell and they're going to sell hard. all this stuff, the crap, unprofitable stuff, the l laggards, they're going to come out of that quickly. the higher we run into the new year is the harder we fall if there are reasons to take profits or to reduce exposure. >> that's of course. and we have sentiment that also has gotten, if you are measuring complacency in the vix, it's a good place to start, but there's all types of investor surveys, you know, aaii, which came out late last week and pointed out a level of complacency in terms of the bearishness, or the bullishness that's back to 2018 levels, the bearishness that is very different than when we started november. to me, a lot of this just gets back to positioning and sentiment. and i they's ink -- that's what

markets give you. we talk positioning, we talk foundmentals, and the fundamentals in terms of the macro and the leading indicators that guy has cited, they've been terrible for a long time. the mag seven, the software companies, these guys are still growing -- there's enormous growth going on in a handful of companies, there's a lot of companies that are not, so -- i think the most important things right now are positioning. and positioning right now says, we'll touch those all-time highs, but then it's going to be tough to go higher. >> if yields go back to 4.5%, you think stocks will go down? >> yeah. >> but we've seen those levels before. is a reaction worse or is it better? or have stocks gotten used to the idea? >> fascinating. it's a great question. you know, on the way up, stocks care. on the way back down, they champion the fact that we're through it. so, it's -- it is seemingly this pave love yan response, as rates come down, party on. if rates go back to 4.5%, i'm

hard pressed to believe it's good for stocks. they are going to go up or down for two reasons. auctions and cpi. >> i said one month ago, the night before a very benign or very bullish cpi that that cpi number was not going to do a lot because i thought we had a lot of rallies on weaker inflation. at some point -- i do think some of this genie is out of the bottle. i think right now, remember, higher rates were bad, the other side of that is, are low rates good? and this is where the markets are struggling. right now, you know, we don't want that ten-year going to 3.5. >> the fed does not land this no landing plane that's being headed for. the s&p 500, there are 210 stocks that are down on the year. so, think about that. the s&p is up 20% on the year. the equal weight is up 7.5% on the year. there's a lot of stocks that don't act particularly well, and i'm assuming that's because of

fundamentals, right? that's a whole host of stocks that act extraordinarily well, a, because of fundamentals, their exposure to all this passive investing behavior and the like here, so, to me, that's the thing that has to meet in the middle at some point, if we do have more headwinds from an economic standpoint, where investors, a, want to sharpen their pencils and say, okay, what do we own and what the environment is going to be like going forward and i don't think that's been done. >> treasury yields pulled back. 30-year bonds heading to the auction block tomorrow. rick santelli has the details. i saw you when you graded the auction, c-minus. wasn't great. what's your take on what's going to happen with the 30-year tomorrow? >> yeah, it was a c-minus on tens. it was a d on three-years and i think i was overly generous on both. you bring up a good point, though. if you look at the intraday chart a couple of days of threes and tens on one chart, what you definitely see is that we made our high yields right as the

auctions ended. 11:30 eastern for the three-year, that was the highest yield intraday going back to the end of november. if you look at 1:00 eastern, for the ten-year, it made its highest intraday yield going back to the 4th of december. now, if you look at the charts up for a week, you can see the importance here. yes, yields came down after they spiked on auctions, but they're still elevated, and if you look at a 30-year which is tomorrow, $21 billion, it has completed a cycle from the end of august to basically three days ago. so, the real issue is, what is it going to do next? and i think if you look at auctions in general, think about baseball games, okay? if you have a first place team and they're doing well in the standings, but you didn't watch the game and somebody asks you, hey, what do you think about team xyz, they're looking great, they're in first place. well, ten-years, 30-years, we haven't had a lot of problems there, so, people say, i don't

understand why the grades are weak, look how great the sectors have been doing. and what my answer is, you have a couple of bad games, it can effect you in the macro. that's why these auctions are so important. so, for tomorrow's $21 billion 30-years, all you have to do is watch the pricing. if the one issued is higher than the result, i don't care what the market does after the auction. that means investors are not being aggressive. what we want to see is one issued lower than the actual yield once the dutch auction results come out. that's good, that's called stopping through, and we want to pay particularly close attention to the indirect categories, which represent foreign interest, because in the grand scheme of things, you could have a lot of weak auctions before you start to affect the overall market, but watching who is strong and weak on the bidding gives you the best information. back to you. >> rick, thank you.

always good to see you. rick santelli. 2024 market outlook out, calling for the s&p to reach 4750 at the end of next year, following a mild recession in the first half. the price objective just 128 points higher than today's close. joining us now, the person behind this forecast, julian emanuel from evercore isi. good to see you. you look at the absolute numbers and it doesn't seem like there's much movement, but you're saying there's going to be a lot of movement within the year. >> yeah. so, we were treated to a very nonvolatile year this year, as much as people want to think, you know, we did have a banking crisis for a couple days back in march. we had a peak when the fed made what we think it was the last hike in the cycle. and if you drop back and you go back to the last time sentiment was this low in terms of numbers of bears, it was early 2018 and if you think of all the roller coasters that we've been on since then, the one thing as an

investor that you can't do is let your emotions go and sell low and buy high. and the way we look at the market right now is that there's going to be enough event risk over the next 12 months, and there's enough tightening in the pipeline so that there will be that temptation to sell low and buy high and we don't want to do that, and we want to message the fact that it's going to be a year where you're going to have to be patient, you're going to have to play a little bit of defense, having played a lot of offense the last number of months. and ultimately, patience will end up being rewarded. >> so, what does the mild recession look like and when will starts start pricing that in? >> so, we think it's sooner rather than later. we talked a few moments ago about sort of the first quarter looking a little sloppy, and obviously, december tends to be very positive seasonally, but when you think about the catalysts, you know, two potential government closure

iterations, an election in taiwan, you know, a number of other things, the iowa caucuses, that entire cycle starting up. against the backdrop that the economy, very slowly, but perceptively, is weakening, and there is the fine line, particularly with the tickup in unemployment. we do think that the caution will be warranted coming into the new year. >> julian, 4750 in the s&p would be 20 times almost on the screws your 2025 earnings estimates of $235. there's obviously some math associated with that. but what are the chances that that $235, given everything -- we just heard from hasbro, continued layoffs across a number of sectors, that $235 is high. what are the chances? >> ah -- so, our view is actually, when you think about 2024, where consensus has it wrong is consensus is too high for 2024. that number is more like what

people are thinking about 2024. and obviously, that kind of news, we think this is going to be the third consecutive year of essentially unchanged earnings, right? and so, when you think about valuations, remember, this year was entirely multiple driven. yes, it was driven underneath the hood by a number of stocks whose earnings did rise, but at thine aggregate, the fact is th the risk to earnings is less about the exit out of the recession, because you do get an acceleration and more about sort of what's right in front of us. >> so, using your under the hood metaphor, so, as you look at the sub sectors below the s&p that you think will outperform and underperform, i'll pick out two that i think have had a tough year. as people were really in offensive mode. industrials and health care have had a pretty tough year. you can make an argument that, dan talked about the stocks, 210 stocks in the s&p that are down on the year. you're going to find a ton of health care stocks and a ton of

industrials. how do you see that separation? health care is always defensive during the times you're talking about, but i look at big pharma right now and outside of lilly and novo, a lot of stocks have been disasters, not just a little bit. i own one of them. so, i get it. and then i look at the industrial side and i make an argument that, so, i get why health care historically performs p. industrials have already had their bear market. the other side of that is, some of these companies have suffered mightily in '23. >> so, i think you have to separate between the two and in health care, you're totally right, tim, essentially, the glb-1 and everything else trade is really what caused general investors to walk away from the group at a time when, if you think about it, with interest rate volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, you should actually be doubling down there and given our view on slow growth, we think that's going to be, you know, fruitful, and frankly, if you think about the last few

weeks with the sort of catchup in the equal weight, that's part of what you're seeing. rotation into some of the tax lost names that have been sold. we think that continues into next year. industrials is a little bit different. look, i'm sympathetic to this concept of a rolling recession, but frankly, when you look at canada just rolling over printing negative gdp last week, we know what's going on in china, france and germany negative, we just don't think that the u.s. can remain indefinitely sort of an eyislan of prosperity. and even though there has been a good deal of damage done to industrials, we think that's going to persist. >> one last question, they're going to scream at me, but given what you are forecasting in terms of mild recession, it seems like it would be wise to stay maybe in 5% treasuries at this point. >> so -- >> at least through the period of recession.

>> we around this table have had this discussion a number of times over the last six or seven years, is that as an individual investor, this is one of these times the market has had a great run, you need to think about how you're going to feel if the market comes in 15% basically what we're calling or maybe even a little bit more, are you a buyer down there? okay? if you're not, you need to raise a little bit of cash. and it's just not going to hurt you at this price. >> julian, thank you. good to see you. julian emanuel. what do you think? >> it's interesting. when you say it through the way he says it, very measured, makes a lot of sense. people at home -- problem, of course, the people that say, yeah, i'll be a buyer down 15%, 20%, when it happens, it is always a lot scarier and for reasons you never envision. those people would be like, sign me up, when we do, in fact, if we get there, will be the ones going the other way. i think he is exactly right in terms of his prognostications for next year. i actually think maybe a little bit lower in the first half of

the year, but it's reasonable to think, we're right back where we are now at the end of next year. >> yeah. and he mentioned other parts of the world, it's interesting, dax went to all-time highs today. you have japan where, you know, what's going on with monetary policy and the boj, probably pretty good for japanese equities. coming up, we're watching oracle afterhours. shares on the move after reporting results. the details on that quarter and how to trade that name. plus, macy's jumping on a potential buyout bid. but is it just the start of more dealmaking in this space? the department store details, when "fast money" returns. in is "fast money," with melissa lee, right here on cnbc.

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q-3 to grow roughly 6% to 8%, with q-3 nongap eps to be in a range of $1.35 to $1.39. that falls in line with estimates. oracle is struggling to integrate its health information platform, which it acquired back in 2022. that integration is slowing oracle's raef knew growth rate right now. also, the ceo saying on the call, given the enormity of the pipeline and backlog, i expect cap x will be $8 billion, meaning it will be considerably higher as we bring in online more capacity. and in the last point, which is the most important for this company, oracle's oci, or the cloud infrastructure business, it aims to be the fourth public crowd provide r, well, that business hit 1.6 billion, up 52%, includes clients like x.ai, samsung, even now rival microsoft. and just on the call, right now,

larry saying that he believes oci growth rate will be over 50% for a few years. very bullish on that category. >> all right, kristina, thank you. so, pairing losses from the afterhours drop that we saw initially, but still down 7% here. guy? >> it should pair losses. i don't think it's a bad quarter. i don't think the guidance is a disaster. people look at cloud revenue miss and, all right, cloud is lower. listen, i understand what's going on in the world right now, but on valuation, you can justify the stock. i think the quarter is fine. we were just $100 i think in october. i actually think you can buy oracle between $105 and $107 for a trade. >> $1.6 billion growing 50% a year -- >> yeah. >> have at it. because if you look at aws, going to be at -- >> can we do a -- >> when dan says have at it, it means don't have at it. just to be clear. >> maybe in a new graphics package -- >> they can put a sarcasm

asterisk? >> you know what i'm saying. >> i do. >> it's a rounding error relative to its competition. the size of that cloud, you know what i mean? larry and elon are good buddies. >> does it have to be as big as microsoft's business? >> no. no, but that's why it trades 18 times. but they are having a hard time integrating their $26 billion acquisition, the company's a rollup. look at all of their revenue growth that they have, every few years. it comes from the prior acquisitions, so, if they are not good at integrating the prior acquisition, which is, you know, 15%, 20% of their market cap right now, where it is right now, i think, or, you know, something like that, you know, so, just doing quick math here, that's their business model. rolling up other companies and integrating that revenue. >> well, first quarter guide to this quarter was really conservative, and i think the company suffered then. so, this is kind of how they roll. they had an analyst day in september where they guided to,

you know, essentially 9% compounded annual growth rate to 26. nothing changes here. comps were really tough. i hear you yo, dan. but there are people out there in the software space that are going to continue to have at it. >> real quickly. two consecutive misses and guide down, you know what i mean? the company's fundamentals are not improving. you can throw a dart at your pain board and find a software company that's going up, you know? so, i don't know, why do you have to buy this one? we saw this from cisco. people were geeked up about cisco. all right, there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. there is a department store deal in the works? shares of macy's surging after one group looks to scoop up the retail chain. the pricetag, and what it could mean for the rest of the sector, next. plus, options action heating up, as activity nears a record in 2023. we'll track the trends and trades leading the charge. you're watching "fast money,"

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welcome back to "fast money." macy's soaring to nine-month highs after reports the company might be taken private. an offer to buy the retailer for $5.8 billion. they already have a stake in macy's and has met with the board to discuss the offer. macy's has about made clear if it is interested. the retail giant closing up 19% today in its best day since november 2021. other legacy retailers including kohl's and nordstrom closing up on the report. so, could this usher in a new wave of retail deals? do we think this will actually

get done? what i thought was interesting is the ceo is going to retire in february and that usually paves the way for some sort of change in terms of ownership. >> if macy's -- i'm not on the board of macy's, i'm not the ceo. >> bid -- >> no, not at all. if they believe in their business, they think there's going to be a turnaround. they should laugh at this offer, because it's a real estate deal. and i put it on twitter last night, it's eerily rep neminisc of gordon gek coe. >> why did he wreck that company? >> because it was wreckable. our "fast money" trailer for "wall street" was some of our best work. and macy's best work was probably back when that movie came out, so, it -- but if you listen to starboard back in 2015, they put a $21 billion valuation on the real estate assets. other people are just looking at the overall valuation on a trailing 12-month is, you know, probably 4.2ebitda.

look, it's been -- this has been a 100% move in this company in, i don't know, 20 sessions. where was all this sentiment 20 sessions ago? >> question for the group. >> oh, yes? >> isn't it fascinating we spent the better part of this year talking about the problems in commercial real estate on the other side of the rate increases and this deal is all about real estate? you know what i mean? when you think about it, in a -- you know, maybe they've culled down to some of the best properties they have and the like here, but i find it kind of interesting. we might see more of it. so guy's point, you might as well hold out, because if you don't think rates are going that much higher and the economy is in for a soft or no landing, maybe there's something higher. coming up, some heavy options action activity nearing record levels this year. and there's one trend helping fuel the surge. we have the details an the trades that should be on your radar, next. plus, snap and nike jumping. why analysts are getting so bullish on these names, when "fast money" returns.

missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." stocks kicked off the week in the green. the dow, s&p, and nasdaq all with small gains. shares of e lli lilly dropping. lilly still up nearly 60% this year. the latest consolidation deal in the energy space. that deal expected to close next year in the first quarter. oxy raising its quarterly dividend to 22 cents a shear, up from 18. and bitcoin's rally finally letting up. the crypto dropping 6% today. all the coin-related names took it on the chin, as well. the options market is booming with the most action it's seen in at least 50 years. that's according to an analysis by "the wall street journal."

we have more on that. it is amazing what this has been driven by, and that is short-dated options. >> that's right. there's been a mania in these shorter dated options known as zero dt, and that's really helped turbocharge this mania that really began in 2020 during the pandemic when people were stuck at home, they were opening their robinhood apps and playing the options market. and since then, the activity has just soared and soared. it recently made up half of all activi activity. this is a new product. this wasn't something that was on the scene last year, two years ago. it's pretty remarkable. >> is there a sense of what percentage of those zero dated options are retail driven or institutional? >> many of those zero dated options are retail driven. they are part of the mix, especially in the market for s&p 500 index options. i've seen mixed estimates of that, but rookie investors, they

loom large in this market. they actually make up a greater share of the options market than they do the stock market. of course, that raises concerns of, are these individual investors taking too much risk out there in markets? >> some of the most popular trades that you highlight in your report are sort of the usual suspects, a.i., tesla's always the most popular individual option. what are other things that are rising to the top? >> it's really been a way for people to magnify their bets on a.i. i was surprised to see tesla make the top of the list once again. especially because of how popular nvidia has been as a trade. it also seems like these one-day options, they become a way for people to play the economic uncertainty that we've seen this year. four out of the top five trading days for one day options were around days like cpi, the labor market data, gdp data. so, watch out for that in trading tomorrow and wednesday when we see cpi, ppi, that's been a way for people to play these huge moves in stocks and bonds through things like tlt.

>> these options didn't exist a year ago. what is on the horizon? is there a slice in the options world that is even shorter-dated than what we have now? >> if there is, i think exchanges and brokerages are going to try to create it out of thin air, because this is a cash cow for etf providers, for retail brokerages, let's not forget options make up -- they are much more lucrative for retail brokerages than stocks are, because of payment for order flow. that's one of the biggest sources of revenue. and i think people are going to try to, you know, capture this golden goose while it's still around. >> thank you for coming by. >> thank you. >> great piece. i think options clients are four times more valuable in terms of, you know, the way the metrics are as opposed to an equity client. but i'll say this, as well. it's probably statistically true that if you sell options and earn premium, you are right 75%, 80% of the time. that 20% of the time can be catastrophic. so, my -- again, one of the many concerns i have are these types

of options, i think people are playing with fire. >> well, these record options volumes could offer insight into how investors are looking at the markets. let's bring in mike khouw to break this all down. mike, i'm sure you are very well aware of all these stats, these popular options trades what stood out to you this past year in terms of how people are using options and what they're betting on? >> yeah, i mean, there's a couple of things. one of them you just mentioned, tesla. it's number one for the year to date, but actually nvidia has surpassed it more recently. and it's only because tesla had such a huge lead for the first half of the year that it is unlikely that nvidia is going to be able to close the gap. it's really the top 25 largest names, where almost all of the single stock options are being traded. 82% of the options volume today, for example, was concentrated in justthe top 25 stocks. and speaking to the short-dated nature, because, of course, she was talking a lot about the zero dte and how people are using those in the index and etf

space. there aren't zero dte options on single stocks, but 78% of the top 500 most active contracts that traded today expire by the end of this week. so, there's definitely investor favor for these shorter-dated options. >> mike, do you see risk? let's say in the index, in the s&p, every day you look up, it's that day's expiration in the s&p 500 is the most active. do you see risk to the market structure, if we were to kind of get into a haywire patient of the market, where so many trainers have been using these in ways they may not understand? >> well, i think there is always that risk when you have a new product that, there are aspects of risk that are associated with them, that the people who just started to use them aren't dollar with. one thing that is interesting, if individual traders are going out there and buying options, if they are not getting short, which is what guy was suggesting, if you sell options, you are probably more likely to

be right, but the cost, when you're wrong, could be severe. but if most of the retail flow is actually buying, someone has to be selling. and who is that? that's typically going to be the market-making community. and the market-making community, unlike a lot of these retail traders, are what we call edging their deltas. they are going to trade the underlying to hedge the exposure they're getting against all of that retail flow. and i think there is a potential risk, because, of course, if they are getting short a lot of short-dated options, their hedging may have to accelerate as the market moves. and that can contribute to volatility. >> mike, thank you. mike khouw. coming up, a social surge. shares of snap crackling and popping higher. >> oh, boy. >> the sttopping the tape calls after the break. plus, more live sports on netflix. the streaming giant now set to serve up some tennis. will this latest volley put a scare into disney, fox, and the big names on the court? we'll debate next. "fast money" will be right back.

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welcome back to "fast money." social stock snap surging today on a big call from wells fargo. analysts upgrading the name,

saying it is poised for a positive growth inflection thanks to reinvestment in ad tech and a more focused management team. snap has been on a tear since september. now up more than 90% from its september lows. both dan and tim are active, but you recently bought more, right? >> yeah, i did. part of this is a story where the comps get a lot easier for this company. and i think that's where we are. moving the needle a little bit. i think we're in an environment where media stocks are, if we want to call this company that, at least from an advertising perspective, i think you're starting to see at least a surge, you're taking back a lot of that, remember snap's part of what they're downfall was, five, six, seven quarters ago, was talking about their ad business, so, i think there's more to go. >> yeah, but tim, don't you agree that a lot of this move has to do with momentum and has to do with the sort of chase? >> for sure. >> to me, i get a little worried. you look at the chart, there's a gap going back to 23 bucks and maybe smooth sailing, but i'm not sure they fixed a lot of stuff on the product front that

they have, and you think of the hid headwinds, the digital advertising, i'm not sure that's abated. you've been there, you've been long it. i'm not sure you chase it here, though, is my point. >> since pinterest had that activist, i think it was around, what, $18, $19, stock's probably doubled. look at pins right now, probably at a two-yearish high. that probably has momentum. so, to dan's point, is it momentum-driven? >> you still got a page, right? >> i have one of the best -- >> it hasn't been touched for 15 years. >> so what? pinterest actually called me over the the weekend -- >> on staying the course on that one page. >> impressive. >> nobody visits it. elsewhere, citi upgrading nike to a buy from a neutral rating. analysts saying they are more optimistic on the company's ability to protect eps. and citi mentioning the positive effect the 2024 olympics could

have for nike. you had been short nike -- >> yeah, look, i covered 25% ago, and i want to own it again. i own it in a couple accounts. look. it's world class, whether it's innovation or their north american market that continues to grow. i do think that there is challenges, go back to what julian was saying at the start of the show in terms of discretionary, and i think there's a lot of exposure there, but nay key's valuation really cheapened up. it's 35% off those lows. i don't think you need to chase it here. >> look at the chart. if you go back. you have double bottoms between 80 and 90-ish. o august, i think the high was $127.50. bull analysts sort of bit the bullet today and upgraded the stock. i think the average price target is $121. i think there's a good chance you get between $125 and $128 next week. >> it is brave to stick your neck out just ten days before the earnings report after the

runs since september. you have to believe they have the goods. >> and there's channel checks and there's a lot of data they are coming through to see what's going on, and they probably have some read into the quarter. coming up, netflix shares feeling the love today, as the streaming giant gets ready to host another live sporting event. will this be a grand slam for the stock? we'll debate and trade it next. more "fast money" in two. (♪♪) [coffee pouring] (♪♪) [van engine] [card reader chimes] (♪♪) [garage door opening] (♪♪) [inaudible chatter] [card reader chimes] (♪♪) (♪♪) the first time you connected your godaddy website

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we know that creating memories with loved ones brings so much joy to your life. a family trip to the team usa training facility. i don't know how to thank you. i'm here to thank you. welcome back to "fast money." a match point move out of netflix. the streaming giant planning to live stream an exhibition tennis match between rafael nadal and carlos alcaraz. the it will stream on march 3rd. could this be an ace for netflix as live sports heats up the streaming wars? we should note they say that other matches between other stars will be announced at a later date. so, this is not just a one-off. this could be a series. >> listen, obviously doesn't hurt. the market liked it today. it went from a very cheap stock relative to its history to a stock that's probably now borderline expensive yet again, given the run we've seen, so it's netflix's world.

i want to be very clear about that. but i don't think you go foray into this stock on the back of a couple guys playing tennis. >> think of all the moments in the last five years when we thought netflix might be embarking upon a new segment and what it's meant for at least, again, someone who has, you know, global subs of 350 million, you know, dynamic that gives them a lot of reach and a lot of power at a time when bidding on sports is crazy, and people have busted the bundle and they're in netflix and they're paying more for netflix if think get sports. >> bidding on sports. they used to catch a lot of heat for all the money they spent on original programming and they've morphed to lesser programming options, less capital commitment and the like here. when you think about this growing ad business they have, it does give them more levers to do that, and i think sports gives them, obviously, that opportunity. so, to me, i think it makes a lot of sense, but it's one of those things that probably gets investors' antennas up and

thinking more about valuation. but with over -- >> it's 250, it's not 350. >> something like that. that's where the next growth opportunity lies. >> seems sms smart the way they doing it. they are not competing, they are not bidding for an event like nfl football. >> where you know there's going to be five people in line. >> they are creating their own events that nobody else is bidding for. >> there's a sports event that we've been talking about putting together here on "fast money," a pickleball contest between guy and karen, which -- >> throwdown. >> throwdown? >> i think that would raise some dough. >> if we can get netflix to pick that up. >> i'd pay to watch it. >> the only one. up next, final trades.

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it is time for the final trade. tim seymour? >> yeah, let's go with one of those online spotterts betters.

d draft kings. >> dan? >> let's go with starbucks. >> guy? >> we were just breaking down rudolph the red-nosed reindeer. oracle on the selloff, mels. >> thank you for watching "fast money." "mad money" my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here on the level playing field for all investors. there is always a market somewhere, and i can help you find it. matt money starts, now. hey, i'm kramer. welcome to cramerica, i'm just trying to make a little money for you. to put everything in context, call one 800 743 cnbc. investing isn't easy, but it can be a whole lot easier and much less bouncing with a little instruction.