get $68 million a year for 10 years with no interest at all. it's a very interesting structure but i'm sure he will take that $2 million and make $20 million or $30 million of $40 million in endorsements. >> it seems like everybody is a winner here. thank you for watching "power lunch". "closing bell" starts right now thank you and welcome to "closing bell" live from the new york stock exchange. this make or break our begins with the outlook for your money whether a powerful new market is just beginning. we will ask liz and saunders and adam parker that question in just a moment and a closing bell explosive with the president and chief operating officer of goldman sachs. john waldron will be here topics on the table the markets the economy and the future of the firm. your scorecard was 60

minutes to go in regulation looks like this week we are in the green to begin the final stretch of a benign cpi report. all eyes now on tomorrow's that decision and chairman powell's presser. interest rates are holding steady. we will watch that closely and it takes us to our talk of the tape. the upper hand and whether the bulls firmly have it. let's welcome the chief investment strategist and founder and ceo and a cnbc contributor. i'm so thrilled to have you here. what will happen tomorrow? what will the chair say? will he remain on this market parade or keep it going? yeah that's the question. whether he does it overtly by raining on the parade and pushing back against the expectation of cuts starting as early as march, or he gets

added by citing what has been a massive listing of financial conditions. a record single month in november. >> because rates came down so much? >> he may hint that is doing some of the perspective easing. that is to me what i'm focused on. whether he does the opposite of what he did when he said the move up and yields had done some of the tightening. >> what about you, adam? anything upsetting? pretty sanguine environment we have. >> i don't look at it that way. i look at it like you don't want them to cut rates you want to dream they could do it for the specter of doing it is more exciting. i could see the market selling off when they cut. >> what if they cut for the right reasons? you assume they cut because they have to pick >> the right reasons were the economy is in bad shape? beaming inflation has come down and the economy is doing well. >> i'm like a genius like everyone else in this program. what i learned in the day is full employment and stable pricing which one is so bad

they need to start cutting rates? what i think the bull case is gross margins can expand the average stock and you dreamed is a combination coming without it happening. that is the sustained goal. that's what i'm rooting for pick equities go higher . >> what about the idea the economy stays reasonably well and inflation will trend lower year-over-year, and that is despite a month 10th of a percent pop in november and the fed can cut for the right reasons that inflation has allowed them to do that. >> but it's still above their target and the other mandate is not in the clear spotlight meaning the labor market hasn't deteriorated. powell has been clear about not wanting to repeat the mistakes of the burns era and declaring victory prematurely and then easing and letting inflation out of the bag again. i think it will be the labor market that dictates the point at which the fed goes.

>> the rally from november to now and how it's become more broad more recently, has it surprised you? >> no. i think it was a necessary ingredient for sustainability of the rally. you and i talked about it around the one-year point in the october lows. small caps and banks were in negative territory. the concentration problem. now you have this stealthy rotation where you ease some of the excesses associated with concentration without the bottom falling on it once. so far so good. >> there is a relationship between the change in the cpi in the changing gross margins for the average company. with cpi retired and her profits and hit the small caps. the big seven did not get affected by rising cpi. they have pricing power. if you want the market to rally and you want sustained, unique gross margins to go up so that's where i spend most of my

time with my clients. is it lowering input costs? is it productivity? weber increases less of a problem? is it materials? which companies can be gross margin expectations. >> you think it's time to be more bullish overall? >> we talked about this last week and then i went home and self-loathing because i was talking about the incrementally bullish. incrementally, i don't know. i don't think we will have as much upside the next 12 months as the last 12. incrementally it won't be as much upside but am i optimistic? yes. >> we do not have that much upside over the last 12 months and a large part of the market. most of it in the top-heavy part and only of late have we started to catch up a little bit. >> nobody out equates when i'm

equity manager gives them that break. benchmark is the s&p of 22 total return pick that's what they are compared against. what people want and they charge high fees as they want to find out. it's hard to know stuff about the big seven nobody else does. reacting to the overall indices up this much. do i think the risk/reward -- i hate romanticizing. i do think the risk reward could be skewed to the upside next year if they average stock it's more margin expansion. things look optically expensive now but the middle of 24, maybe 25 or 26 it looks cheap and that's a recipe for a bigger rally than people think. >> so many people asking that question. should i become more bullish? based on what your company does. is it time to be more bullish in the outlook for stocks or not? we've come a long way. the market has done really well of late. it was top-heavy and

now it's broad. is it believable? >> tell me what the bond market will do and i can tell you what the stock market will do. i think bond yields are in the drivers seat. we have a negative correlation between yields and stock prices. plunging yields from here, assuming reflected a weaker economy, it would be a digest in pace of the mortgage. even stabilization would represent a positive backdrop on the upside. then i think you add the risk of another july through october -- to worry about that? you think rates have come down a ton in the last six weeks. 5%. down 80 basis points pick >> the question is is it true the last mile in terms of getting inflation down will be the trigger? we think inflation will come down but not in a straight line. obviously we have the energy swing factor, which impacts headline inflation and not core inflation. i agree with adam.

a scenario where the fed is cutting as soon as march is not a good scenario in terms of what is going on in the economy. >> that seems a little ahead of ourselves. the market was saying margin the probability started to go up into the high 30s you're like, really? it's backed off that so we are at june. does that make sense? >> this morning it was still 45% probability of a cut in march. >> i think i saw five cuts by the end of next year. to me, the economy needs to get much worse and i don't think anyone will also by the greater the entire year. you don't want things to get like that. you want edom -- earnings to grow a bit and then some days be more accommodative. >> some people think earnings will grow a lot. i've had bullish people -- >> consensus suggests that but i don't think it's realistic i

don't mean it's too high. what happened in this unique cycle, and the vestige of the worst part of the pandemic when analysts were getting no guidance from companies. now i think they are adjusting estimates near term. you get interning scenes and pick they may make an adjustment to one quarter out but they're not making those adjustments. i'm not sure how valid the calendar year 2024 estimates are. they have not been moved to the quarterly estimates are moving up and down a lot. i'm not sure it's a valid valuation analysis using a calendar number for 2024. >> what matters is do you believe -- >> d believe they will be double due to higher? >> i don't think that's right. i think will be mid-singles are higher. maybe six or 7%. 11 is too high. i think data has existed since 1970 a. on average in january each year up to 14% expectation

and the actual has been seven. the market has gone up a lot of this year since 1978. it's not the downward revision that matters as long as it's being downwardly revised you think the growth will still happen in the market can do okay in those conditions. >> did i see you making the case for small caps? >> smaller. there's opportunities but stay up in quality. i would fade the low-quality areas just smaller. there is a lot of active money both professional and individual that is itching to find opportunities outside just a magnificent seven. continue to think more factor focused than sector focused. strong are oe pick strong free cash flow. interest coverage and profitability. i think that's the way to approach it and there's opportunities down the capped circuit. i would not index to a russell 2000. 32% zombies but i think

there are opportunities outside of the mega cap names pick >> speaking of energy, are you still on that train? >> i parse the quality being a bit which is gross stocks want high quality and that's two thirds of the battle you're trying to get beneath the s&p. and value stocks, you don't necessarily overtime one high- volume. you want future quality that doesn't look like it today so you need to find it systematically. you want growth quality over time. in terms of energy. my view is we are short being able to produce 107 million barrels and the path for getting there is unclear. what worries me tactically is sold to chevron without a premium. when you think about it, he knows his assets better than

they did and thinks he can sell it without damaging chevron stock is much is damaging his own. i don't see how we get 178 barrels down the line. ultimately we have higher oil but they path could always be filled with -- i like it long- term but i have no idea pick >> you're talking about quality growth. i know we've been obsessed with magnificent seven and performance has been incredible but as of late all those other growth stocks it done incredibly well. >> bond yields come down pit the highest correlation in years between negative yields versus equities. all the riskier companies where the value is way out in the future, they go up because the cost of capital -- >> what if rates stay low? lower. >> we did not prepare. in this case we agree a lot because i think if they plummet

it's because conditions in the economy got worse. if the 10 yield goes to the three year to 2 1/2 in a hurry. but stabilizers where we are here and the two-year comes in. that could be very supportive of higher multiples. that's what i agree if you tell me the mapping of the 210 level in slope i could do okay. >> one thing we have to do when we talk about growth and value is explain what you mean by growth in value. are you talking about indexes are vectors and growth in value? mid december last year when s&p did the rebalancing pick the mega cap eight were all in s&p pure growth index on december 19 the day of the rebalancing, only one was left in the pure growth access. tech 137% of the index to 30%. energy became the highest weighted sector and s&p pure growth.

russell 1000 growth was up 37% year today. s&p pure growth is up 2% year- to-date. people say growth in value i think, what are you talking about? characteristics of preconceived notions? even if you're talking about the indexes, what indexes? >> it's all systematically assigned. it's mutually exclusive. you can't be in growth and value like russell had with exxon. it's not that shocking. it's all systematic. >> the problem is if you're not a growth stock you put in a value index pick you don't necessarily offer value if it's not a growth stock. >> we do it for this reason and thirds. we have a growth either in value -- but i think were getting the same answer but showing our differently. >> what is the point at which money comes out of money markets and goes into equities and that spurs the next leg of

whatever kind of market, whatever kind of bull market this may be, if this can hold up? are we approaching the point? >> i'm not sure a lot of the money and money markets is the traditional sideline cash that is itching to go into equities? be made maybe come from other areas. typical deposits. other areas within fixed income or the equity market where a lot of income oriented investors say, now i can actually get 4% to 5% and a money market. there was that similar size in relative terms of capital and money markets in the '90s. and it did not leave but you had a strong equity market and you had this meaty amount of money and money markets and i'm

not sure we should necessarily think of it as some moment in time source that will fly into the equity market. i think it's probably pretty sticky? >> the world is so much different than it used to be where you could bank on these flows. pick one multi-strata pot shop. they have 35 teams pick their running 600 to 1200 gross exposures. hundreds of lungs and hundreds of shorts. that's what's happening. >> maybe this time is different we know the because rates were so elevated that putting your money and a money market where you could get 4% to 5% was the risk reward on that so much higher than taking what was seen to be a tremendous risk in equities because of the fed regime of hiking pick if we know there was an outsized amount of money that went into money market, if the coast is deemed clear, why wouldn't that money go in -- maybe it goes to bonds if yields continued to come down and bond prices will go up. >> yeah.

this two different issues and it's all horizon i don't know any actual human being that holds two duration. >> at schwab we do. >> my clients alike people who were institutional investors with a 12 month holding. when you run $40 trillion and then there's trillions holding to me i could see someone saying i will buy it tactically or holding a two-year for duration to pick it up. to me that's a small part. you asked about inflows in equities driving? >> keep in mind for all the talk about the record amount of money and money markets, as a share of equity market total capitalization, it's fairly small. the firepower has to be judged with that ratio in mind, not just the dollar level of what's in money market funds pick >> we will leave it there. you guys are great. so much fun having you in the house. >> happy holidays. >>

we are just getting started here on "closing bell". next, unless he is close to. goldman sachs president and c.o.o. john waldron joins me right here. we get his take on the markets, the economy, the fed, and the firm after this break. you are watching "closing bell" on cnbc. (sfx: stone wheel craftin) ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪

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i don't know how to thank you. i'm here to thank you. welcome back to "closing bell". stocks in the green as the fed kicks off its meaning and investors looking for clues about the outlook for rates and the economy. joining me now in a cnbc exclusive is john waldron , the goldman sachs executive and

c.o.o. great to see you. we have this meeting now and we will get a decision but we don't expect anything but the news conference will be eventful. do you think they're done with the hikes? >> our forecast is that they are done. it feels like the data is giving them license to be done but they said they are data dependent a concern of mine is that market falls too much in love with the fact they are done and the date it will matter. our forecasts show they're not raising from here and the debate is when do they start cutting. >> what is your best guess on that? maybe the market was ahead of itself thinking march. >> the commentary seem to get heavily interpreted and now the market is back to a june posture. a review is it's the second half of '24 it will start happening. more likely the second half than the first half experiment

how would you assess the job they done from the beginning when they started and tell now given everything we've seen and where we are. >> i feel like they got a slow start and they were too much of a transitory narrative for too long. once they got started i thought they did an excellent job and if they can engineer a soft landing, which are her things to engineer, it will be extraordinary and good for the economy. at the moment i would give them a high grade. >> are you surprised how the economy has hung in there? >> i'm surprised. our economists, very much on the soft landing. >> keeps lowering his probability? payment early and more bullish as is going on and he's been right. a number of us in the practitioner mode were more cautious and have been dush not pessimistic but concerned. we have all moved a little bit to the more positive side. i think the u.s. consumer came into this in a much stronger position than any of us gave the u.s. consumer credit and that's had a huge impact on consumer behavior. it's a 70%, 70% of the economy.

>> how about the markets? have they surprised you? about culture at the beginning of the year and i said the fed will hike as much as they did. the economy will hang in there and the stock market will have a great year, especially lately it's become her broad. he would've told me at the beginning of the year, what? >> i would've said it would've been a tough year on the markets. what's interesting are the seven stocks versus the rest of the marketplace. there has been more damage in the equity market in terms of some of those non-seven stocks. if you look at the 493 stocks, the average multiple is at 14 of 15. quite a bit lower so it looks relatively inexpensive but a lot of the stocks have come down a lot so the smart dispersion. this was less of a trend market. that's not surprising. the seven stocks are surprising. the fact that some of these

other stocks about a harder time is not a surprising. >> are you a believer in the broadway scene as of late? is taking us to this next leg. november was amazing but these other areas. s&p are performing just about everything else. >> it seems it needs to happen. the market needs to get broader. that the right direction of travel. i'm not a portfolio strategist but i think our strategist would agree with that. our production and production they will be more broadening in the market and that will be healthy. >> i know you were just in china and that's been confounding to many people. we've had this recovery here. europe has done better than expected and china remains the sputtering story. you were just there. what did you see? >> the economy is very weak. i think they are surprised by how weak it is his other economies coming out of covid had a v-shaped recovery.

china is the only one who is not experienced the v-shaped recovery but they did not stimulate so one major difference is there wasn't a significant amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to aid that recovery. and obviously there weighed down by significant number of challenges. a lot of the growth we witnessed in china for the last five or 10 years was real estate and property growth and that is coming home to roost. the fdi challenges are real. money is flowing out of china and not into china. that's not helping their cause my experience when i was there is it felt like there was negative animal spirits. in the u.s. we have positive animal spirits and the economy was coming back from covid. i feel like it's the opposite in china. they will have a tough time and they wanted to tackle some structural challenges. they will get after it but it will take a while and if you look you will grow below trend for a fair bit of time. >> why isn't that having more of an impact here? he used to say, china sneezes and the rest of the world catches a cold. now it seems china has a good

hold and yet here we are. >> the u.s. consumer is still the most important factor in terms of u.s. economic performance, not china. the u.s. consumer is doing well but by the way europe is having a tough times of the european economies are not firing on all cylinders. i think some of what we see and china's impacting other economies. i think the u.s. is outperforming because the u.s. consumer is surprising everyone in terms of the resilience of the spend. >> let's talk about the markets as it relates to business directly at goldman. we wonder when we will see this new flood of mn day. what pent-up do you see? what do you see? it's a bread-and-butter business for you. >> the m&a market, there are three pieces to it. there is large deals. there is the middle market which is increasingly governed by private equity flow. private equity component of the

market has 40% of the total market in the last four years which is abnormally high . and then you've got the smaller, niche, corporate deals. the smaller deals are pretty healthy. active flow and active pipeline. corporations want to do deals and there's a lot of positioning around portfolios. larger deals require regulatory approval. that is getting harder so i think that is a shill on the larger dill market. we did some big energy deals as of late. we do see some deals but it's not as strong as it has been historically. the private equity community has been quiet i like the fact that he saw these pickup. we see a pickup but i will not say it is significant. i would say is the beginning signs. >> when do you think it will become significant? >> i feel like it will take a

while to get going. the private equity unity is drawn to figure out how to find people living in those portfolio companies. there is $9 trillion in portfolio value sitting in private equity hands. that's an enormous amount of activity that will come in the next few years but i don't think the gun goes off january 1 and it starts flooding the market. will take a while to get on track. people need to figure out how to get financing. buyers and sellers need to come together. there is a lot of liquidity that needs to be delivered to lps so that the catalyst and to stimulate, but it won't happen overnight. >> what does it tell you that there have been instances and to this point where companies have pushed back on the government. does that, you think, embolden people to do deals they did not think they could do that now they're willing to have a fight? >> i think certain companies will be interested in doing that but i don't think it's a broad-based trend. i still think it has a negative impact over all on large deal activity. doesn't mean there on exceptions and people aren't going to sue and win. but most of the time in a boardroom and are trying to

advocate for transaction, that's not the way you advocate to get a transaction done. broadly it has a negative impact. >> what about the ipo window? how firmly do you think it starts to open? >> were getting more bullish on the ipo window. think about the capital markets broadly whether it's equity or debt we are at half the tenure averages so we are running at a low level of a dvd and half of the last 18 to 24 months. as i said above private equity, private equity is a big stimulant to the capital markets activity but the refinancing wall that is coming in private equity-owned assets is pronounced. in this year, $13 billion of refinancing and high yield and leverage loan market. '24, $75 billion. '25, $225 million figure is an enormous amount of refinancing that has to happen.

some of that will refinance the debt market and others will require ipo and some of that will be m&a. were getting more optimistic that will start kicking into gear and as we've gone through the rate increases to more of an equilibrium, people adjust prices adjusted mind-sets adjust burke were getting closer to seeing that window. >> the big story today. emerson roger commodities trading business and is stepping down and said to be close to you. why is he stepping down? >> our commodities franchise is terrific and has performed exceptionally well and ed has done a great job. he's done a great job and it's a very deep team as with everything at oldman's expert we have a broad and deep team. her leadership across commodities is incredibly strong and it's a global franchise that we have strong leaders in the u.s. and europe and asia. excited about the team in place to lead the franchise going forward. ed has decided he wants to go onto the next thing in life. that happens. we wish him well and he will stay on for an extra year to help us with the transition and i think it will work well for us. we are ready to move the

franchise forward and it will perform exceptionally well. >> he was aid to be a fairly vocal credit of david solomon's leadership does that have anything to do with him stepping down? >> i don't think so. i think ed was getting to a place in his career he was deciding what he wanted to do next and it's not any more complicated than that. he will transition well. ed cares a lot about the commodities franchise and about how it transitions and cares a lot about goldman sachs? >> how would you assess the last year has been like for the executive team? the criticism and the controversy? did you hurt your ability to focus? what are your thoughts? >> i would observe we have accomplished a lot in 2023. it's an eager broccoli year at goldman sachs. we had a lot of it to do and none of it was particularly rewarding on the surface. we had a lot to do under the covers and we repositioned our consumer interest in the big willie and sold a number of

assets. we sold united capital. we sold our markets lending platform we sold approximately $10 billion -- right there -- yep. you can even hold it if you want. >> we sold $10 billion in real estate and we've taken about $1 billion of operating expense of the firm which gives us flexibility to invest back into our talent and people that we have accomplished a lot this year. it's been a transition year and we've had a lot in front of us that we are very excited about. >> you been overhauling your asset and wealth management businesses. i'm going to help you out and i don't care it's like to be because we will do it anyway to make sure it works the right way. how about that? there you go. you have been overhauling your asset wealth management businesses and you've seen many people live in the front but do you expect top-level talent to move on? >> no.

we have a strong leadership team at the top of the firm. that means there won't be people leaving. people are always leaving and it's part of the process of our next generation of leadership rising into new positions. our asset wealth management businesses gone through a significant transmission. we have merged internally four different businesses into one platform so think about it as having done four mergers there's a lot of integration in doing that so there will be changes when you do something like that whether it's an internal merger or external set of mergers we have a great field on the team pick visits is performing. will have raised $60 billion in alternative assets on that platform this year. management fee target of $2 billion in alternatives will be held this year and we are close to our $10 billion target of her operative wealth management business will grow high single digits this year businesses are performing and we've had an excellent year. i know there's a lot of focus and inquiry and the press around people leaving but the business is performing well and

our team is extremely motivated to drive the franchise forward. >> to feel like the firm is rightsized now? no more layoffs? >> reproduced the headcount about 3000 people this year? payment the largest is the financial crisis. >> i think a lot of clients i talked to were adding a lot of heads during the covid period and the recovery period and everyone need to rationalize what they had done. we are no different. i feel good about our headcount right now. we are in a good place. we can grow from here and a measured way that will depend on how the market does and the economy does but i'm good about where we are sized right now. >> are you happy and will be there for a while? >> i'm happy and looking forward and interested in 2024. we have a real opportunity in front of us and attend to be focused on helping us deliver >> thank you for spending time with me here on tran 13. john waldron joining us here.

we have conversations and we fix microphone do we do we have to do. next forecasting the fed. sibastien pages back. we fd in out what he is expecting from chairman powell tomorrow and i was navigating the market as we round out the year after the break.

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stocks are higher today as investors react to the latest cpi report. joining me now to discuss is sebastian page. chief investment officer for t. rowe price. welcome back >> thank you. >> let's talk and stage in from reluctant there to neutron stocks. where are you today? >> we are still neutral on stocks and i've been watching your lunch time show and your conversation from earlier. it's all about as long lags. you need to worry about those and that is keeping us from going all the way full bowl long stocks. at the same time, i think you called it the big mattress. the

big mattress of money cushioning the economy into this landing. that tells us things should be okay and the fed is about to cut rates. >> what makes you think the like effects are still going to have an effect? maybe what the fed has done has already had rolling impacts so you're not going to have the big effect that the more cautious market observers seem to think is still to come. >> look. i expect a soft landing, but i think the risk there does look at, for example, credit card debt or weak companies that need to roll their debt into much higher interest rates. a look at commercial real estate. there is still fragility and, again, it feels comfortable at neutral. it's the return of the balanced approach. we will get some volatility on growth, but most of the volatility on inflation has

gone. at least the crazy volatility and inflation. it feels like a neutral-kind of environment as we get more data coming in. but, yes, scott, those legs have hit on a rolling basis. they were probably continue to hit on a rolling basis, which means there is still some fragility and markets. >> i find it interesting that somebody suggests we will have a soft landing isn't more positive on stocks. one would seem to naturally follow the other. by the time you get overweight, or whatever language you would use to describe a more positive view, the market would've done further away from you, no? >> yeah. and look, scott, here's a different way in which we are positive. we are long, small and mid caps under the hood. slightly short duration. long credit. we like to take the long risk positions where relative valuations are more attractive.

give it neutral on top but under the hood you could add some octane in there and just recognize that this is a balanced outlook. scott, the bottom line is a lot of it is priced in. in november, we just had the record easing and financial conditions the largest one- month easing and financial conditions in november. the dollar pulled back the equities rallied. the spreads compressed. rates came down. i'm not sure that's what the fed wanted, scott. >> we will see. and i guess we will hear from the chair himself tomorrow and we can't wait for that. thank you. sebastian page joining us on "closing bell". tracking the biggest movers into the close. we have two companies and two sudden c sweep archers and that's rocking share prices. i will reveal the company names next.

less than 15 from the closing bell. christine joins us once again. >> let's start with lucid group under pressure after announcing the exit of the chief financial

officer. the company set is looking for a replacement and the vice president of accounting will fill in for the time being and that's why you see shares off almost 8 1/2%. and moderna in the red after a sudden executive exit. the chief commercial officer stepping down after less than two years on the job. the company said it's increasing the focus on vaccine sales which will be overseen by the c.o.o. shares down 50% this year trading over 5% lower right now. still ahead. cada shares up over 60% as the ipo lockup wraps up today. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery.

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another big interview tomorrow. just after the fed, the chair presser were joined by jeffrey gundlach. his first reaction to the decision and commentary from the chair right he oner "closing bell". shares of oracle are falling sharply picked britvic down what is waiting on that and what it could mean for other software names when we take you inside the market zone rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh.

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mike santilli here to break down the crucial moments of this trading day. christina says the detail behind oracle's sharp slide and leslie on the surge and cava shares as the ipo lockup expires today. this is fitting the trend we've had as you suggested earlier. this pickup around midday and further ramp into the final stretch. >> and nothing has popped up to activate the sellers in the face of that. you may have been looking toward a note of volatility potential out of the cpi. we did not get that. treasury options when i'll find and above market absurd big things are falling in line with what has become a gathering consensus of persistent disinflation. the economy is okay. more to the point the fed is not really the swing factor at this point. we are in a pause and remain in a pause we know what will be said tomorrow and there's no real urgency to get a change in that story are rushed for the moment. the big criticism is it's a

little bit too neat and tidy. the markets are getting over broad. it seems like a lot of this stuff is building at some point to a move. we got here and we've culminated the outlook and it's hard to say where the moment comes. >> and then there is oracle down 12% as i look. >> it's the second straight quarter. oracle failed to impress and that's why see the drop. last time was 13% after post earnings but they failed to meet their cloud growth expectations even though i grew 52% year-over-year. the company blamed the pace of infrastructure buildout and lack of gpu data center capacity with the ceo saying on the call we're talking about hundreds of millions of dollars that would've been able to recognize

of our capacity was available. and also the chairman said it's a matter of supply and not demand and believe the cloud infrastructure business will keep growing past 50% over the next few years. that shows the theme. access to nvidia gpu is the difference between eating and missing in the public cloud business but it wasn't just the cloud. you had the november print falling short on software and service revenue. total revenue growth and capex in revenue guidance for two through and cash flow. oracle aims to compete with microsoft and amazon and google but as ubs says, oracle is testing investor patients. >> thank you for everything today. leslie, what am i missing here? i thought a lockup expiration was supposed to be bad for shares, not up 20% like cava is up? >> that is the conventional wisdom pick up 20% right now. it's a relief rally related to that lockup expiration this morning. it's been six months since cava's ipo and restrictions on the 97 million shares that were not loaded on day one are lifted to your point lockup

expirations for these highly volatile new issues can pressure stocks in the weeks and months leading up to them. cava's 69% short interest as a percentage afloat . largest in the restaurant sector. the research firm said cava assault more than $30 million worth of new short selling over the last 30 years -- days despite its loan availability and expensive borrow costs. it's likely that today's surge is due to a traditional technical short squeeze. shares are now more than 70% above the $22 per share ipo price but they did double on day one in mid-june so down about -- significant way from that. >> thank you. leslie pick her following cava. we are within the two minutes before the close . it's going to be interesting tomorrow. i'm sure waller's name comes up at the news conference where

someone asks is he speaking for himself or is that the broad view of the committee that cuts, if inflation continues to come down like it has come are coming. >> the answer may even be located in the summary of economic projections rate collectively they will say here's where we think that funds will be and where we think inflation will be and here's where we think unemployment and the rest of it . it would be consistent with the view to say we don't want to become increment to meet more restrictive as inflation goes down. the take away will be no hurry to make a change. longer rather than higher is the mantra and the fed fund future pricing stuff in is a little noisy at this point. if it's beyond a couple of months it's really noisy. in march of this year after svd, we were expecting three cuts by the end of this year and that was a 16-month span. and stocks are up 18% since march so it shows you that it's

a little bit of a what if exercise as opposed to a projection. the market is ready for what will happen? >> mega caps did a nice move into the close. the nasdaq will be the outperformance today and we can't wait for tomorrow. see you then. into ot. we are up again. that's the scorecard on wall street but we will stay for closing bill overtime? >> coming up we will talk to the c.o.o. of heritage homes. rates and sharp focus ahead of the fed decision. >> and awaiting news from the white house as president biden get set to hold a news conference with ukrainian president, volodomyr zelenskyy. we will take you there when it starts.