sales expected to grow to $15 billion next year. there have been other reports, jon, that the company turned a profit in first quarter of this year. >> interesting. n nordsen beat earnings and we have lennar and costco afterhours tomorrow. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. welcome, everybody. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. monster market moves. the dow topping 37,000 for the first time ever. s&p getting within a record, and the ten-year at levels not seen since august. all this thanks to jerome powell. how the fed chair got stocks surging and can they keep their momentum in the new year? we'll debate that. plus, bad medicine. shares of pfizer plunging to more than ten-year lows.

the headline sinking the stock and what one of our traders is doing with their shares right now. and later, crafting concerns. etsy, the latest name to cut jobs. why the market wasn't buying in on the announcement. in more melissa lee, i'm tyler mathieson. on the desk tonight, carter worth, karen finerman, dan nathan, guy adami. don't let me fail here. >> of course not. >> cover my back. keep me propped up. >> always. >> historic close on wall street today. all kinds of records, both all-time and for the year. the path 52 weeks. the dow rallying 500 points. it was flat at 2:00, folks. 500 points at the close higher, closing above 37,000 for the first time ever. nasdaq -- s&p 500, naz tasdaq u more than a percent. news coming after jerome powell signaled multiple rate cuts are on tap for next year. that news sent the benchmark ten-year treasury yield tumbling

to within a basis point of a three handle. 4.016. rates now at their lowest since mid-august. and check out the moves in some of the most rate sensitive market groups. regional banks. big banks, home construction. and ark innovation etf all outpacing the broader market with gains of almost 6% in the case of regional banks and ark innovation nearly 4%. cnbc's senior economics reporter steve liesman covering the big fed developments in washington. steve, put it into context for us. >> after an aggressive campaign of hiking rates, the federal reserve pivoted today, strongly indicating its campaign had come to an end, forecasting rate cuts that were more aggressive than the market had anticipated to come from the committee. here's what we saw today. the result was to significantly boost the probabilities of a rate cut as soon as march to near 80% from 46% before the meeting. what happened, what changed

today? well, the fed acknowledged inflation progress, indeed, this pivot comes after wholesale prices this morning surprised to the downside and previously inflation expectations also surprised. powell said the committee discussed rate cuts at the meeting today, and the average forecast of a fed official is now 80 basis points lower next year than the current rate of 5.38. all this surrounded by caveats from powell and the fed. inflation has to keep coming down and stay down. the job market has to continue to loosen up. and economic growth moderate, as well. the market seeps the threat lifted of additional hikes and the chance lessen that the fed is going to plunge the economy into recession by staying too high for too long. and from the give him an inch and he'll take a mile department, the market already pricing in more cuts next year than the fed is forecasting. 150 basis points. you look at the january 2025 contracts, which 'em compasses all of 2024, almost double, tyler, what the fed is forecasting. >> often, steve, it seems to me that the chairman uses the press conference to either walk back

or soften or adjust or tweak what has been said in the statement, what the market is interpreting. i didn't sense that today at all. >> no, he furthered it. and two things happened. my suspicion here. the first is that the economic data put him in a position where he could not hold the line. i think, tyler, expected him to hold the line and deliver this press conference more in january after another month of data. i think that was one. i think the other thing is, if you look at the forecast, i think he risked losing his committee on this one. there's five officials that have 100 basis points of rate cuts built in. there were officials in the previous forecast, tyler, that were over 6%. nobody's over the current rate for next year now, so the committee itself turned dovish and that's because the data, i think, because of math and because of what's happening in the economy, the inflation data is headed down. the fed acknowledged that today. powell could not defend, i

believe, a more hawkish position any longer. >> i felt in a funny way that i was listening to either nick saban, the coach of alabama, or brian daboll, the coach of the giants, after a win, where he's saying, hey, we're making good progress, we're doing well, we played a good game here, but we've got more work to do. there's still more work to do. there's some things we need to clean up on inflation. did you hear that? >> well, defends if you think the fed is 5-8 like the new york giants. that's another issue. you know, and maybe it is given its forecasting record. but it's had a couple wins in a row, in fact, we were talking before, tyler, that a lot of what the fed forecast this year in terms of inflation, in terms of growth, in terms of the funds rate actually came to pass, so, it wasn't a bad year for fed for forecasting, and i do think that's right. they have more work to do, they know it, but he couldn't defend the most hawkish position of this idea that, hey, we're about to hike rates again, or we could be hiking rates. they took away that bias to hike. i would say right now, they're

in neutral, with a forecast to cut, if everything comes into line. that's the forecast right now. but it has to be underscored and supported by the data. >> all right, steve, thank you very much. steve liesman reporting. dan, let's trade this. what should i do, how do you interpret what the fed has done and said? >> yeah, it was really interesting. i was watching jerry with scott wapner right after the presser was done and he kind of stuck to his guns. if mel was here and we're very, very happy to have you here, tyler -- >> if mel was here. >> she would have looked to guy and myself and she would ask some very pointed questions. you are being very nice. i've been very strong about the stock market this year, at least as a monolith, a term that karen likes to use, because i think back to a year ago today, the end of 2022, on december 13th which is also t-swizzle's birthday. you know that. shoutout to taylor. she's watching. >> huge fan of the show. >> but i would say this. the s&p 500 was at 3,800. closed at 4,700 today.

you know where the ten-year yield was? it was at 3.5%. you know where the ten-year closed today? 4.01%. so, there's something out of whack, okay? and jeff also said this, and i thought this was interesting. stocks need bonds, but bonds don't need stocks. and that's going to be a story of next year and that's why -- >> what does that mean? >> well, what he's saying is, okay, bonds this year did a thing, based on what the fed had said as they were going to do. it was liftoff for the stock market as soon as they went to 4%. the flip side might be true next year, once the fed has given up, that bonds might continue to do something. he said, when they start cutting, and this is something that guy has said, they're going to have to get a lot more aggressive and that won't be favorable to stocks, because the reasons they're going to need to cut will not be supportive of risk assets. >> karen? >> well, a couple things. we talked about that, comparing that bond, that was, though, when they were just starting to

begin a hike -- >> not last year. no, no. last year? i mean, think about it. >> yeah. >> no, i mean, the two-year was higher, it was 4.5% or something like that. i mean, at some point -- at the end of last year -- >> but the ten-year wasn't going into a hiking cycle. now we are -- the hiking cycle is over, they've told us it's over. so, i think that's different, but what a crazy, broad rally, which is good. when we've been wanting a broad rally, because as that mag magnificent seven was higher and higher, there was more risk there. they had a not great day. i like seeing it broaden out. i have been bearish bonds lately, so, that didn't work today. but -- i don't know, it feels like this reaction was a little bit heavy, because i think this expectation is what's been pulling the market up for the last two months or so. >> heavy in the sense it was -- >> overstated? >> yes. >> overstated reaction. >> right.

>> guy? >> well, i mean, we talked about for the last few weeks how there's seemingly four, if not five rate cuts priced into the market for next year. so, they basically came out and i think just sort of galvanized those thoughts, but the market for whatever reason sort of jumped on that and took it to the next level, so, today was a remarkable day. 18-basis point move on ten-year yields on what's been a 75-point move. you have to take notice. stocks seemingly across the board loved this. but you know, i'll say this, great stock market, you know, maybe the fed is threading this needle, but right now, there are 45 million people in this country, it's no longer called food stamps, that doesn't speak of some great comeconomy. 62% of americans live paycheck to paycheck. that's coming from government statistics. stock market is saying one thing. economy is saying something entirely different. and oh, by the way, i think the

fed even acknowledged this, the lag effects haven't kicked in in terms of the rate hikes to this point, so, we'll see how it plays itself out. >> we'll talk about the economy with our next guest in just a moment. but carter, let me let you button off this conversation until terms of maybe -- how should i interpret what the fed has done and said and put it to work in my portfolio? >> right, well, maybe an anecdote that's relevant, the consensus among my clients, long short, long only, pension plans, small hedge funds, that it's all about rates and we know this, so, that's not elemental, that's not new, but it's all about 5 to 3 1/2, all good. we go below 3 1/2 and then we have a problem, because it means that really something is wrong on main street. so, maybe this is the golld goldilocks, but i think we are going down below 3.5% and the stock market will wake up. >> yeah. yeah. very interesting. so, what should i do?

do i play this rally as though it's going to continue for the next five months or what? >> there's plenty of sectors, when rates were going higher, when you went into this year, and a lot of people -- i think this is really important to remember, too, that rate hikes were priced into this year and they all got pushed out, right? and so, that was one of the reasons why i think most folks did not see the labor market being as strong as it was, the economy printing over 2%, right? like, last year, at this time, a recession was priced into most risk assets, so that's the thing that kept on getting pushed ut. people were not positioned that way, so, it was a chase all year long, and that move from 4% to 5% in the ten-year, it was quick, people. the fact that we're talking about 5% in the ten-year, it wasn't there long. it wasn't above 4.5% long. so, that just got a lot of things, risk models, i think, out of whack a little bit. and we might see -- that's what a blowoff, the reversal of something like that. >> and when it was at 5%, all of a sudden, everyone is saying higher for longer, it's going to be 5.5, and it wasn't.

>> is now a time for small caps or not? >> i think so. we kept seeing the magnificent seven and those just didn't move at all. now, i mean, this move today, in an index, this, i mean, that is an enormous move, and i don't think that it's gone crazy to the upside, i think the disparity between where, you know, the magnificent seven was trading in the small caps is so large that there's still room to go, so -- i'm long the iwm, didn't add any, but staying long. >> all righty. let's pause here and move forward with the fed's path ahead and to do that, we're going to bring in the chief economist at smb c nikko securities. joe, what is the path for the fed here? as steve pointed out, five members of the board see rate cuts next year of 100 basis points or more. coming down to 4.6% from 5.1% or maybe lower. what do you see happening?

>> i love the fact, and i liked what steve said, tyler, i love the fact that directionally, the fed is on the right path. they've got to lower rates, but they do not have enough rate cuts built into their forecast, in my opinion. i believe the fed will go at least 150 next year, needs to go a minimum of 250 basis points -- >> or what happens? >> between now at the next 24 months. >> they need to do this or what happens? >> you whether have -- you will have a much harder landing because that deep curve inversion, tyler, is causing a potential credit crunch. you're seeing banks pull back significantly on providing credit. you're seeing the senior loan officer showing significant tightening of standards. it's a very slow burn. but the longer it happens, where that curve remains inverted and we're approaching now all-time records, to me, that will make the ultimate downturn worse if the fed doesn't try to normalize that curve.

there's some wisdom of crowds built into the long end of the treasury market. >> and you've been a believer, it hasn't happened et, that we were going to have a recession. >> that's correct. that's right. >> so, you still believe, it's just a matter of timing before it comes? >> that's right. and the treasury market, we avoided one last spring when the fed added $400 billion in liquidity, but here again now, the market is pricing even more cuts now than they were 12 months from where we were this past march, and i do believe the bond market eventually will be right, which means the equity market is wrong. because the amount of easing the fed needs to do to normalize the curve is not consistent with a soft landing. so, the bond market is correct, and the equity market is wrong, meaning the equity market will need to retrace its runup, whether we go back to 3,300 remains to be seen, but i look for a weaker market based on a hard landing.

>> karen? >> hey, joe, it's karen. where do you think the fed wants the real rates to be? >> i'm long the view, karen, that the real rate is a bit lower than what the fed currently believes, because productivity is soft, demographics are poor and debt levels are high. so, if the real rate is closer to zero, maybe it's 50 basis points, pre-covid type of readings. then the funds rate really should not be much above 2, 2.25 in that scenario. rates have a potentially long way lower to go. >> guy? >> you mentioned the inversion, so, this is, i think, historical in terms of the duration, and you go back and look, typically, the longer the inversion, the more severe the downturn, but somehow people think for whatever reason it's different this time. why would it be different? or could it be worse than people are expecting? >> it could be worse than people are expecting. i don't look for a deep

recession, because i believe the fed will be cutting more than they're saying. in 2008, people thought we avoided a recession, it wasn't a deep inversion, and we wound up having a very deep and long recession. we don't know what the recession will look like, it hasn't started. and when you get into recessions, unfortunately, bad things can happen. and we could find leverage in places we didn't know existed. unemployment rate goes up and that leads to defaults, that could cause a cascading effect in other markets. so, we just don't know, but yes, i do believe that the deep inversion, which, by the way, guy, the record is 20 months, so, that will take us to february. so, we're not past the record. but i do believe the fed could avoid a deep recession and a hard landing if they were to cut rates aggressively, because most inflation, most of the decline in inflation is transitory. this period to me looks much more like the 1940s than it does the 1970s. i think the fed's made a major mistake in raising rates as far and as fast as they have.

>> hey, joe. you were in the white house four years ago, right? and i suspect you'd like to get back there. as we head into 2024, you know, if you were in the white house, and you were talking to this administration, what would y you -- what would -- how could you change the narrative, if you will, because obviously the president is not doing particularly well as it relates to his marks in polling on the economy and the like. what would be your advice? because the stock market is saying something, the economy is hanging in there, i listen to that presser, they seem to be pretty happy with what's going on in the job market and the way inflation is going and the like. i'm just curious, where's the disconnect there, because, like, and what sort of advice would you be giving right now? >> the -- the reason consumer sentiment is so poor and guy was talking about people living paycheck to paycheck, i believe it was a cnbc analysis that came out a year or so ago that said people have something like $400 of excess savings, effectively, in their account. they're looking at the price level. the level of prices is still significantly higher today than

it was 3 1/2 years ago. even though the growth rate is slow and the price level is high. and unfortunately for many households, the real wages, the standard of living, cumulatively, it's getting better recently, cumulatively has been pretty poor. it's been negative over the last three years. there's no getting around that. i'm not sure the administration would want my advice, i'd be happy to give it, but i would focus on supply-driven incentives to work with the private sector to create the better outcomes that we like. unfortunately, maybe i'm biased, i don't want to be, i haven't seen the administration doing the things that i'd like them to do, so therefore, i don't expect a phone call. >> all right, joe, thank you very much for that. you know, i -- i think it was very interesting. you both sort of hit on it. there was a lot in the press groens today conference today of the chair cheering the fact that inflation has slowed, the economy and the labor market are strong. basically strong. the economy may slow next year, so is their forecast, but not

into a recessionary level. but you both made the point that people don't seem to feel like the economy -- and the market is at a record. people do not seem to feel as though the economy is in a good place, and certainly the administration is getting no credit for what has been, by some measures, a pretty good stretch for the markets, for the -- for the job market, and now, indeed, for inflation coming down. >> well, i'm not saying they're doing a victory dance today, but -- >> no. >> in combatting the inflation that the federal reserve begged for for years, they needed to do certain things, which hurt the majority of the people in this country, in ways that we can measure. we pointed out. so, the disconnect is, the last couple years have been very difficult for people without question. they look and say, how can the stock market be where it is when we know inflation is a problem, the cumulative effects of inflation is there for everybody to see. inflation isn't going down, it's going up less fast. which is not nuanced, it's just

the math. >> which is what joe said and what powell actually said today, super powell, it -- what he actually said today, the rate of price growth has slowed, but prices still remain high. they -- the bottle of detergent that now cost me $16 is still costing me $16, it's not as though that bottle, carter, has come back down to where it was four years ago. >> imputting to the fed some insight that's beyond the mere morale, they get out of bed in the morning, put their shoes on, they've never been ahead. they've always been behind. and they were saying inflation was transient, it wasn't. now they're saying they're sticking to their things, it is probably coming down faster than they thought. there is no great insight there, it's not about these individuals, it's just that insight doesn't exist, and so, the question is, are they behind yet again? and the presumption is yes. >> yes. all right, guys, ladies, thank you very much. coming up, we are watching shares of adobe afterhours. keep your eye on that one. that stock on the move, and

lower by a lot, after reporting results. the numbers from that quarter, next. look at that decline there. 38 points, nearly -- well, more than 6%. plus, an e-commerce cut. shares of etsy dropping after a big layoff announcement. the red flag they are raising, when "fast money" returns in two minutes. you're watching "fast money." here on cnbc. we'll be right back.n indepe that you and your family need. i promise to put your long-term financial well-being above any short term transaction. everyone has a big picture. my job is to help you invest in yours. [announcer] charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com

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welcome back to "fast money." we have an earnings alert for you. adobe beating on the top and bottom line, expectations, but shares are dropping, and how. pippa stepvens has more. >> shares are tumbling after the company set a cautious tone for 2024. saying they expect full-year revenue to be between 2$21.3 an $21.5 billion. when it comes to eps, q-1 is ahead of estimates, but for the full year, it is basically below consensus. during the fourth quarter, the company's revenue did top $5 billion for the first time, and

its key net new digital media annualized recurring revenue came ahead of forecasts. on the call just now, executives talking up the opportunities surrounding a.i. and generative a.i., calling it a generational opportunity to offer new products and solutions to an ever expanding set of customers. adobe also disclosed that the ftc is probing its subscription cancellation practices and that stock down 6%. back to you. >> all right, thank you, pippa. and speaking of adobe, jim is chatting with abow dadobe's ceo "mad money." watch that at the top of the hour. let's trade adobe now, dan. >> listen, 24% run in the last six weeks into the print. trading at 35 times, the company expected to grow earnings and sales 12%, 13% this coming fiscal year, so, you know, really depends on valuation. i'm surprised it's down this much. i didn't think the guide was that meaningful, as far as -- >> that awful? >> i just -- >> is the it fcc thing?

>> think about all the regulatory headlines we get every day, they don't really move the stocks that much. so, if i'm the ceo, and i'm this management in general, heading into a year where we know that spending might get tougher, costs might be higher as you spend on the generative a.i. stuff, why not set a lower bar? you want this thing to be overshot. and broadcom did this last week, too. and the stock was unchanged. we're looking at it, we're like, eh, and it goes up 20% in a straight line in the next three days and just kind of items where you investor sentiment is. the company is probably doing the right thing. >> carter? >> it's such a testament to underperforming on the way down and still underperforming on the way up. the nasdaq 100 dropped 37% from its peak. this dropped 62%. it is still underperforming other key marquee tech-like names, and today's news doesn't help their cause. >> yeah. all right, there's a lot more "fast" to come. we're going to take a break now, and here is what's coming up

next. job cuts at etsy. the e-commerce company slashing its work force at the height of the holiday season. their plans for restructuring, and why they're sending shares lower today. plus, we're chatting chips. the group beating the broad market in a big way recently, but the technicals could be saying there's still a power play in store for the space. the chart master makes his bull case, next. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com

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that is about 225 employees. the ceo saying a, quote, very challenging macro and competitive environment prompted those cuts. etsy falling as much as 8.5%. it closed down about 2%, so, it blunted some of that decline. the news just the latest in a string of end of year layoffs and restructurings. hasbro earlier this week saying it will cut over 1,000 jobs. spotify, amazon, citi also shrinking their work forces. what is that telling you, karen? >> well, i am long etsy. it's up way off the bottom, but this wasn't great news. i don't think it was the layoffs so much, because i think they can probably gain productivity. it was the chief marketing officer. when you lay off the chief marketing officer, something is going wrong in marketing. i didn't love that. i mean, obviously it's a good day to have a bad release, right? so, the market sort of saved them from that. i love the asset light platform.

they don't have any inventory, they -- all they do is get fees. and so i love the -- i love that about them, i don't know if this is a commentary on the consumer at all. i think this is, unfortunately, a little bit of a commentary on etsy. >> on etsy. but it doesn't shake your long-term thesis behind this stock? >> no, no. i wouldn't be a seller. >> it was a $68 stock when it reported in november, rallied to where we are now. the selloff, i guess, makes sense. but it's part of this narrative that we've been hearing about. now spotify laid off a bunch of people, i think it was two weeks ago. they overhired, they ackn acknowledged they did so. but when you have more and more of these verticals, hasbro yesterday. a swath of different verticals, laying people off, that is a trend. and it's for a myriad of different reasons. we hired too many people different covid, we don't see the demand, you know in terms of going forward, we're concerned about the macro environment. these things all lend itself to what joe was talking about earlier, so, the stock market today says one thing, but all

these companies and they're hiring practices say something entirely different. >> about the economy as opposed to the market. >> uh-huh. >> the case of etsy, a few hundred dollar stocks, one of the high fliers. you like it long for ultimately getting back to levels like that -- >> no, not remotely close. >> just to make some money. >> right. coming up, are the chips set to rip again? the chart master here to make his case for semistocks and how they stack up against the broader market. plus, we're down to the wire for -- i didn't even start my holiday shopping. down to the wire? >> we have time. >> how the shippers are set up to handle all the last-minute delivery needs, including mine. which stocks are in prime position? don't go anywhere. we've got more "fast money" coming at you quicker than a fedex truck. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

♪ welcome back to "fast money," everybody. stocks surging after the fed

indicated rate cuts are coming in 2024. the dow surpassing 37,000 for the first time ever. there you see it in graphic terms. the s&p and nasdaq jumping 1.3%. 52-week highs on those indexes. shares of netflix up nearly 4% today, and notching its highest close of the year. the stock up more than 62% in 2023. tesla starting a session lower before ultimately climbing back, lifted by the market, i guess. the ev maker recalling nearly all 2 million of its cars in the u.s. because of an auto pilot software fix that needs to be made. it comes after a two-year investigation by regulators into a series of crashes. guy, let's start with you and netflix. >> well, we have this beautiful new graphics package -- >> we do. >> only surpassed by your genius. you could put up -- there could be no graphics, if you are on the screen, must-watch television. just saying. some people need graphics. i happen to be one. >> the graphics are nice. good aarp-sized type for me,

man. >> precisely. if we can throw up a chart of netflix and go back to the all-time high, october of 2021. you see the low that we saw, i think $180 or so, dan, in early 2022, i mean, the level we've gotten ourselves back to is a 50% retracement of that entire move. carter can speak to this. it went from an expensive stock to a cheap stock. now it's in the middle at 30 times next year's numbers which is probably a historic norm. big day today. it's netflix's world. but this is one of the things you need to take a close look at this run. i think you get a back-end fill. >> very interesting. all right, let's move to semiconductors. the etf smh dropping 8%, more than doubling the performance of the broad market. chart master thinks the outperformance could continue even further. carter? >> right, so, actually, despite the recent outperformance, they've been major laggards compared to the qqq, the tech sector and so forth. from mid-june to mid-december,

six months later, semis have lagged key things like the xlk and the qqq. let's look at a few charts and try to discern the way forward together. this is going to be the smh, no lines, no drawings, no annotations, let's put some on. one way to draw the lines, you'll see in the second iteration, would be as fallows. if this is a major sort of head and shoulders bottom that ultimately breaks out. another way to draw the lines, same chart, same timeframe would be -- many people refer this to a cup and handle. it's a setup for higher. and the third and final way on this particular chart, if you look at that annotation there, we broke out, we fell back, and then we reassert ourselves. let's keep that and look at the very long-term chart. and what we know is, this is a relative chart. semis relative performance peaked in 1995. we have so much room to catch up. a ratio chart, one thing divided by another, which depicts

relative strength. that's what alpha is about. semis here, compared to the qs, you look at semis compared to the tech sector, xlk, again, peaking in 1994-95. and semis still haven't recouped all their relative losses to the s&p since the dot com peak. >> but moving in the right direction. >> correct. that's it. >> moving in the right direction. >> carter, so, we know that obviously nvidia is 20% of the smh, right, taiwan semi is right behind it, we've seen amd, intel have the really big moves and they seem fundamental and maybe it's playing the lag guard a little bit. how do you think about that notion, like a texas instruments, global foundries, that have not performed particularly well, but if the semis are saying something about what the environment might be like in 2024, do you want to play lag guards like that? >> it's two-fold, but it's a breadth issue, right? nvidia being such a big weight, but it's underperforming. the stock is outperforming without the help of its key

player, which is a testament to strength in the space. i think you find intel, which is still well off its highs, as well as playing a leader or two. >> maybe it's you, karen, but who has a thought as to why these stocks would have underperformed those broader benchmarks over such a long period of time? why would it be that it was all the way back to 1995? >> what if you made a much smaller -- i don't know, that was just a terrible period for a long, long time. what if you made a much smaller look -- >> sure, it all depends where you start your story line, sure. >> one question for you, if the relative -- you think the relative outperformance will come, how do you decide if it's because the market will go down and it will go down less or something other than that? >> that's the nifty thing about a ratio. you have to figure out which part of the equation, or it's a little bit of both. but the key here is that the reason why their outperformance was so incredible and peaked in 2000 is because in the dot com era, semis actuallyout performed the nasdaq.

so, they're outperformance was so excessive that we still have yet to recoup that excess in terms of underperformance. >> all right, interesting conversation there. coming up, the shipping wars are in full swing. fedex and u.p.s. going head to head to get those gifts delivered on time. we'll get you the latest from the front lines after this. plus, pfizer flunking its earnings test before the bell. the pharma giant today hitting its lowest level in ten years. after a big warning, what sent the street rni ay?unngwa that's next. the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪

welcome back to "fast money." what a day it was. the dow closing at an all-time high after today's fed decision, and shoppers are getting ready to spend. the clock ticking on last-minute holiday shopping, though. one logistics company saying today is the cutoff for online shoppers hoping to get those gifts in time for christmas. today is the day. courtney reagan at a shipping facility now with more. hey, court. >> hi there, tyler. so, you may not be familiar with ship bob, but chances are, you've probably had a digital

order fulfilled by them. this is one of 50-plus fulfillment centers in its network. the third party company works with thousands of plans, incl including lowe's, macy's, ulta, and ship bob says that today is the cutoff, it is the last day for the lowest price delivery option in time for christmas. it is expected to be the company's last big day for orders. >> we are definitely surprised on the upside, because going into the peak season, i think we were all sort of looking at the forecast and making sure that our brands are able to continue to drive sales, and so, that has happened, which is awesome for us and for the broader economy. >> deadlines for the most affordable domestic shipping options including fedex, dhl, u.p.s., usps, are all this week. orders might get to shoppers before the holiday, but it may end up costing you more. you have retailers like walmart,

target, best buy, they are using these cutoff times to push their fulfillment options from stores, like buy online pickup and store even through the early evening hours of christmas eve. and amazon has also added a shipping in time for christmas search option to make it even easier, and remember, christmas eve is on a sunday, so, that also sort of throws off the shipping options when you factor in those weekend days. back over to you guys. >> if i need -- if i really, really want something to be delivered by christmas time, i've got to put in the order tonight? or not necessarily? >> for a lot of retailers, yes. there is going to be some margin of other record, but it also depends on where the order is coming from, where it's going to, and so, in order to make sure that it can hit all of those distances, including the longest one, in time for christmas, and accounting for those weekend days, your safest bet is tonight for a lot of sites, maybe tomorrow. usps has the longest, if you are going to go to the post office yourself and mail it.

but you know. god speed, tyler. >> i have my work cut out for me tonight. courtney, thank you. appreciate it. fedex has been the clear winner in the delivery wars so far this year. shares up 60%. far outperforming u.p.s., which is down more than 10%. they had their own issues. carter, what do you think? >> well, one thing to note, since we're talking about the dow making all-time highs, that would require the transports to also do that. in the waiting of the dow, of course, fedex is twice the weight of u.p.s. and yet u.p.s.'s market cap is twice that of fedex. it is the curious nature of the index. at this point, i would still stick with a winner, fedex is the better setup. >> guy? >> karen can speak to this, it trades at a trough multiple to u.p.s., to the broader market, probably to itself. you have the eps growth to back it up. if you go longer term than we have on, you'll see, it's been remarkable. they report on the 19th, which i believe is tuesday. this stock can and should run to

the highs we've seen in the spring of 2021, which should take us slightly above 300. >> karen,any thought here? >> yeah, well, so, u.p.s. has struggled. u.p.s. faced a strike early this summer, and so, what happened was, a lot of their customers said, i have to diversify. i don't know if you are going to be on strike tonight, i have to move by business elsewhere, partially at least, and that would be to fedex. it's been slower than i thought, to come back. i think over time it will. the differential between the two has -- very narrow, so -- i'm long u.p.s. >> dan? >> i just wonder, guy, when you and charles dow came up with the dow transport theory. were you anticipating this holiday rush as it might happen -- >> funny, we used to have, like, you know, buy candlelight, with the feather pen and we wrote it all down. >> yeah. >> carter -- >> i was a young scribe. >> yes.

>> i don't know what we were talking about. a lot of scotch. >> yeah, and the quill pen. all right, coming up, pops and drops. why pfizer did take part in today's record-breaking rally. and why the letter x is powered higher, and no, we're not talking about the company formally known as twitter. those details anthe d trade, next on "fast money."

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welcome back to "fast money." sf pfizer shares tumbling to a ten-year low today after delivers disappointing guidance before the bell. the pharma company says revenue and profit will falwell below analyst expectations for 2024, as demand for its covid products, remember how much excitement surrounded pfizer a couple of years ago. as demand for those products weakens. pfizer also raising its cost-cutting target to $4 billion. karen, you made some moves in that name. >> well, yeah, some bad moves. but today, i mean, with this news, it's more expensive today than it was yesterday, i think, this was very disappointing news. i mean, they did talk about, they want to maintain and grow the dividend, which is north of 6% now, which is kind of crazy that pfizer would have a

dividend that size, but that's what happens when your stock gets hit that much. i really hated this announcement. i sold whatever i had that was short-term, take the loss, revisit it in 30 days, and decide, see where it is, but do i want to get back in, but terribly disappointing. >> carter? >> one thing, it went to its covid low, and it closed absolutely on the high, volume expanded. i think that's going to set the low. that's my guess. >> all right, interesting. >> if i sold, yes. >> all right, meanwhile, u.s. steel shares topping the tape after sources told our david faber that the industrial company has received five now takeover bids, including an offer from cleveland cliffs that would value the stock at 40 a share. that's almost 10% above yesterday's close. guy on steel? man of steel. >> i appreciate that. maybe years ago. but it gets done, probably north of 45, so, karen can speak to all the reasons why the stock

isn't trading there, but there's another couple chapters left in this, in terms of the stock price, so, it's had a big run. i think there's more to go on the upside in terms of where this finalizes the deal price. >> you think the final gets down in the 45 area? >> let's -- i'll fast fire me when it doesn't happen, but closer to 45 than 40. >> karen? >> it's good when you have multiple bidders. that is always a good thing. we're in a different anti-trust environment than we used to be in, so, some of those bidders might not be viable as, you know, able to get the deal across the finish line. i don't own it. i love risk arb, but sitting this one out. >> it was a $200 stock not but a few years ago and going to get bought out at 40 or 45. bad assets are bad assets. >> you can say that again. all right, up next, folks you we're going to do some final trades, bring it across the finish line. we'll be right back.

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let's give it another check. you can't have too many checks of a market on a day like this. big rally. stocks surging after the fed indicated that rate cuts are coming in 2024. the dow surpassing closing above 37,000 for the first time ever. 37,090. the s&p and nasdaq both jumping about 1.3%. it has been quite a rally, karen, since, what, october? >> yes. i mean, it's a whole different world. >> what happens tomorrow? >> i don't know. do you see the script for tomorrow? i don't know what we've got. i thought this was quite a rally. i was thinking maybe it would run out of steam. >> yeah. that's what i'm thinking. maybe it might. who would like to jump in? >> i think it was december -- dan can answer this one. december 21st, 2021, i think, the s&p made an all-time high. and we're probably within maybe less now than 100 s&p handles from it, so, why not take a run at that? >> all right. >> listen, very confidently in late october i was on this set

and said i think there's a really good chance the s&p is flat on the year and based on a whole host of different things going on. it's interesting how quickly, you know, sentiment can sort of change, and so, yeah, we're going to get to 4,800, have at it, people. the higher we go, the harder we might fall. >> interesting thought. around the horn for some final trades. carter, you lead it off. >> well, two years later, the market is unchanged. guess what is up 11%? gold. gold, still. be long. >> be gold. karen? >> xbi. yesterday, ibb, today, xbi. >> dan? >> yeah, i found carter's semi call really interesting. play lag guards, maybe the texas instruments or global founders. >> guy? >> cnbc is a big family. within it, we have a "fast money" family. bree is leaving us at the end of this week. we wish her nothing but the best, she's been an incredible team member. she's going onto much greener

pastures. >> she's the final trade right there. >> that, and agnico-eagle mines. and you are a stud. >> always brings me a drink when i get here. congratulations, way to go. >> fantastic job. we will miss you. >> thank you for watching "fast money," everybody. my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer . welcome to mad money. we are just trying to make a little money here. my job is not just to entertain you, but to educate and teach you especially on days like today. call me at (800) 743-2622 or tweet me