will remain a mystery forever. [theme music] ♪ good morning. welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines. economic activities shrink mor more than expected in france and germany sending two economies to the brink of recession. he w we will have the numbers for eurozone shortly. investors look past the central bank warning that they will not join the fed in the policy pivot next year. the eu an dgrees to start

membership talks for ukraine but hungary blocks the 50 million eu package. charles michel sends a strong message to kyiv. >> if one country would hesitate or some would not in the position on what's on the table, it is important that the formal position to make a decision. chinese industrial output surges at the fastest pace in november, but lagging demand in the property sector has officials eyeing further stimulus measures. good morning. it's friday. wrapping up a busy week with the central bank activity. we have been getting the pmi

numbers. the december flash numbers for a host of european countries. germany and france got through the flash pmi for the eurozone as a whole and it is not good. it is a lower number for december than what we hehe had november. it is 47 against 47.6. it is ticking downward. the flash services pmi number came in at 48.1 for december. a little bit higher than the november reading of 48.7. still be helow the 50 mark. in terms of other data and comments and what we are hearing from one chief economist froms commercial bank saying the eurozone economy failed to see

any recovery for six straight months. in terms of the employment index, 49.6 which is below 49.7 for november. services is seeing a bit of a rebound, but below the 50 mark. this is interesting over what we have found out in the last 24 hours and in the context of france and germany. both of those pmis pushed the two wheeconomies to the brink o recession. the germany economy at 46.7 and manufacturing tumbled to 43.1. in france, the headline number fell to 43.7 and services activity fell to a 37-month low of 44.3. the bundesbank states it will

rebound at 0.4% for 2024. it sees the print averaging above 6%, but declining to 2.7% next year. those are the latest numbers. here to talk about the pmi numbers is chris williamson from s&p global markets. chris, i really thought in november we were going to see a bottoming out of the numbers. it doesn't appear to be the case. >> no, no. it's a disappointment. we were hoping november was it. it worsened again in december. not all unexpected with the rate hikes still to feed through. this is a disappoidisappointmen. it suggests the eurozone contracted .3% in the third quarter. that is a recession signal.

>> absolutely. taking it back-to-back with .1% in q3 and then this .2% and .3%. for some much of the year, when the data comes out, when look at the manufacturing side and services side, what do you see in th in the had performance sector with the travel and china reopening bringing more tourism to the world and the economies like spain and italy benefitting from that. that resurgence in travel and recreation faded as we had gone through the year as the mounting toll of interest rates and cost of living has brought that service sector growth down and

into contraction. manufacturing and theindustrial sectors are faring worse. manufacturing is rooted in the downturn which is the worst performance since 2012. manufacturing is still struggling really quite remarkably. >> take ping the numbers at the st standalone, it is astonishing to square that with the ecb meeting which decided to keep the rates on hold. they were quite firm and it was obvious they were not ready to send that message to the market despite what we were seeing. seeing these numbers of a very challenging macro economic back drop. let me ask you the other side of the question. what are you seeing on the inflation side of things?

what inflationary pressures are you seeing through the activity indicators if at all? >> at face value youhere, we ha the worst of both worlds. inflation numbers accelerated again. we had a cooling in the race of which goods prices are falling. that's hugely disinflationary. that's in the manufacturing sector which has started to moderate. we saw an upturn in prices charged for services. exactly what you don't want to be seeing at this point. this is, you know, a big elevated rate of increase in service sector linked to the wages sticky sector. you see there is concern about the stubbornness of nness of in going forward. there is a cooling in cpi at the moment and we could see it fall

to 2% given the pmi readings. the latest numbers will be an uptick closer to 3% again. this is worrying for the ecb. draw back to the activity numbers and order book numbers and you see there's very little pricing power. what you have here is lack of effective inflation feeding through to wages. the more recent data and things like firms with backlog or pipeline they have to sustain growth in the coming months is collapsing. in that environment, it is hard to see how firms will be able to push prices through and the labor force is able to necessity dp negotiate higher wages. >> to what extent is this a function of the existing monetary tightening because of the ecb decision to raise interest rates? self inflicted, so to speak, versus a reflection of the

external demand environment right now? >> it is a combination of the two. the global environment cooled over the course of the second half of this year. so that's a factor. you know, there is undoubtedly lack of effective interest rates feeding through. when you say self inflicted, it is deliberate. this is the point of higher interest rates, cool demand and the economy. in the u.s., they seem more concerned of recession risks. they allow the loosening to play through and support growth a bit. in the eurozone, there is a fixation to inflation rather than growth and that is the mindset there. let's not let financial conditions loosen. let's try to keep the market expectations of rates higher for longer so we get inflation down. i think that's the key

difference there. in europe, they are trying to stop the loosening as we have seen recently in financial conditions. >> what about the broad country divergence? it showed up with the gdp data. we saw the figures for italy and france or spain and france was better than the other eurozone countries. is this also showing up in the pmi data? do you get the country divergence? >> we do. we do. germany and france is seeing the steepest downturn. for december, we only got the rest of the eurozone as a whole bundled together. it still has italy and spain in the data, we don't break it out yet. there we can see the contraction is modest compared to the steep downturns in france and germany. france is .2% decline. germany is more .4%.

the rest of the region is stagnant. this is worse than we have seen in the gdp data with the likes of spain and italy. i draw you back to this tourism surge in the summer to q2 and q3 supported by the surge in spend which is fading. that is losing momentum rapidly as the other headwinds that we are familiar with begin to take their toll. >> let's see how markets respond to this very disappointing set of data. chris williamson from s&p global management. > the latest with the pm di disappointing with the business activity. looking ahead, the numbers are not that good. taking that all together, pieced with the ecb meeting yesterday,

and it tells you the ecb is in a tricky spot. the data is turning, but inflation has still been quite sticky. they are not where he they want to be. we had a strong day yesterday. we are in the second trading day after fed meeting where people are calling it the fed pivot. that caps off the markets to new highs. a record high for the dow yesterday. s&p and nasdaq at 52-week highs. more positive hand over from asia. the european markets with a lot of green on the board. stoxx 600 is up .40%. let's show you this. it really has been a remarkable rally since the beginning of november to now for the stoxx 600 and all of the indices. specifically as well, the german index up 14%. switching to the individual

boards. it is more of a mixed bag from yesterday. the ftse mib up .50%. yesterday, we broke through 17,000 and an all-time high for the dax. the uk is the one index, the swiss index as well, under performing down 4 points. we had consumer confidence coming in at the highest level in two years this morning. the uk market is digesting news from the bank of england meeting. they went for a hawkish hold. they did not hike rates or talk about more rate hikes to come in the future, they did suggest that they want to keep rates restrictive for as long as necessary. a bit disappointing. as for european markets week

to date, all of the indices with the exception of the spanish insuran index in the green. in terms of corporate news, campari will buy the courvoisi, r house. the firm aims to grow from acquisitions as it is a more direct rival to diageo. this is the reaction in the stock today. down 2.4%. it has been relatively -- you can see a bit of a roller coaster year for the stock. year to date is up 6%. it did well in the summer and has come off. elsewhere in the retail space, h&m reported a drop in sales down 4% in local currency.

the biggest decline the retailer has seen begins qs 3 in were f margin with a 10% forecast for next year. you can see for the year as a whole, the stock is up 60%. it has been the winner this year. let's talk about fixed incomes. this is the picture for european bunds today. ten-year btp at 3.73. we are eight basis points lower today after the stellar move yesterday. it traveled 14 basis points by the end of the day yesterday. we had the wind down of re reinv reinvestment, but it was smaller than the market expected. ten-year gilt is 3.76. the ten-year bund is above 7%.

we ended the session at 2.p11. we are down five basis points this morning. the eurozone pmi figures are not helping. u.s. treasuries is ten-year note is down 1.5. the ten-year notes are down 30 basis points in the last five trading days. t two-year note is down for the week as a hole. a stellar week for fixed income. a look at the u.s. markets. today, it looks like it will not be an exception. s&p, dow and nasdaq all opening up in the green. there has been so many things we have discussed on the program in terms of markets. the pmi numbers and if you want to get involved in the

conversation, tweet us @cnbc. coming up on "street signs," silvia is live at the council meeting in brussels as leaders fail to agree for further funding on ukraine, but do see eye to eye on recession talks. we'll have the latest coming up next. when we started our business we were paying an arm and a leg for postage. i remember setting up shipstation. one or two clicks and everything was up and running.

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welcome back to "street signs." the eu has failed to agree on the 50 billion euro deal for ukraine after viktor orban from hungary blocked the proposal. orban said he had to veto the aid and the group could reconvene next year. the bloc agreed to open up talks with kyiv with orban threatening to block this ahead of the summit. it has been a week of fireworks in brussels. silvia, you are monitoring everything going on. so, viktor orban managed to get

the funds, the 10 billion odd funds, we had been discussing yesterday, but did not offer support for the 50 billion package for ukraine? how did that come about? >> reporter: so, when i spoke with the prime minister of hungary about the issue, he said there is no link of the 10 billion that ukraine received this week and the 50 billion that are meant to go to ukraine. we know the timing is odd when it comes to these two subject matters. from the european summit, practically speaking, there was no agreement on disbursing 50 billion euro for ukraine because hungary vetoed that. the good news over that, there is broad support from the other members of the eu, from the 26, to disburse this amount of cash to ukraine. the leaders will return to this subject in late january and my

understanding from speaking to officials this morning is that the reason for this delay is that they want to, first of all, convince hungary to come to terms and approve the 50 billion, but if that does not happen, the 26 need more time to take care of domestic paper work. by the end of january, they can say yes to the funds for ukraine. in essence, this amount is going to be sent to ukraine. it is a very of timing and who is behind that decision. let me show you the remarks from the prime minister of estonia. i caught up with her a moment ago. this is what she had to say about the relationship with hungary. >> that is the will that we will find a solution. of course, it is more difficult because you have to think of new instruments that means going to the parliaments and getting a

mandate and it is more difficult this way, but we are working on these ideas. it was clear that we did not come to conclusion yesterday night. it was a clear victory on the talks. there was not point that hungary would give another -- good news i would say. >> prime minister, just to clarify, you said the prime minister viktor orban chose not to be part of it. he said go ahead, but i'll not be part of it. does the eu have a problem with hungary? how can you work without unity? >> i've said several times here before as long as he says the wrong things, but does the right things, we are okay. we have been united so far. we have been able to deliver the

decision on the talks yesterday. it was interesting for the history books how it was done. i would not talk about this today. anyway, we all are democracies. we all have different worries. we listen to each other and try to find solutions. so, maybe this time hungary has problems in some other topic and somebody else has a problem. we try to find a common solution. that is the good part of european union. >> reporter: so, you heard there the key quote from the estonia prime minister. as long viktor orban says the wrong things and does the right things, we are okay. that ended up being the case with the accession talks. the 26 approved that, but viktor orban left the room during that vote as a sign he is not

supportive of the accession talks. taking it all in, joumanna, good and badnews from ukraine from the european summit. they will take more time before the eu disburses this amount of cash. secondly, the good news is they are starting the accession talks which important message to ukraine. >> what is mr. orban waiting for? is he stalling in the anticipation ofthe european elections next year and the u.s. election as well? maybe he is thinking of the long game? silvia, thank you for your coverage from brussels. coming up on "street signs," we get a gauge on the uk economy. we breakdown the december pmi coming up next.

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signs." i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines. eurozone economic activity shrinks for the second straight month sending the two largest economies on the brink of recession. and investors look past european central bank warnings they will not be joining the fed in the policy pivot next year. the eu agrees to start membership talks with ukraine, but hungary threatens to block them as it withholds a 50 billion euro aid package. charles michel sends a strong message to kyiv. >> with one country hesitating and another doesn't on what is on the table means it is important there was no formal opposition to make a decision. and chinese industrial j output surges, but lagging

demand and the continued stress on the property sector has the government eyeing further stimulus measures. welcome back to the show, everybody. we have just been digesting the december flash pmi numbers. coming in disappointing relative to expectations. we are getting the uk number which has come in at 51.7. an upside surprise against november at 50.7. consensus going into the number was 50.9. where the eurozone has disappointed relative to expectations, the uk pmi has surprised on the upward. let me give you details. flash pmi at 46.4. that was weaker from november. that number was 47.2 which was

pointing to persistent weakness in the manufacturing space. that means, of course, the loss was made up for by the services number. flash services pmi number at 52.7 against 50.9 in november. we have seen a bounce in the uk services. a dip in uk manufacturing in the prior month. relative to what we had out of europe half an hour ago, these numbers are better than we had been anticipatanticipating. better coming out of the uk. you have to think about that in the context of how the data is looking. the bank of england decision yesterday where they kept rates on hold. there is a 6/3 split. that indicated three people thought further rate hikes would be warranted despite the weakening economic back drop and muted forecast growth for the next couple years. it shows for the month of december, the data is holding in at above the 50 mark which is a

key level for expansion when you think of the pmi numbers. let's switch to europe. this is the european markets and tho how they are faring this morning. the majors are trading in the green. the ftse 100 is positive. o we are very much still digesting the news of the central banks yesterday. no central bank in europe is in a hurry to pivot. we will have positive reaction on day two. cac 40 is up .30%. dax is up .60%. both reaching all-time highs yesterday. ftse mib is up .40%. we have seen the selling complex under pressure as some rotate out of the banks toward other parts of the european banking system. in terms of fx, this is what we see in the complex today.

the theme for the dollar this week has been one of weakness for the week as a whole. the usd is down 1%. 1.9% to be precise. four-month low against many of its peers. you see it is actually strengthening a little bit against the pound at 127.60. we saw that strength yesterday. euro/dollar is trading weaker today down .30%. still shy of that 110 mark. yesterday was key in that respect if you think of the language from the ecb against the dovish language from the fed. the coast was clear for a sell off. let's talk about yields as well. this is the picture today. the ten-year bund trading at 2.06. ten-year btp is .80 lower on the session. both reacted strongly after the

ecb announcement yesterday with the session ending 14 basis points lower. we just changed the u.s. treasury yields. those also are very much in focus. we had the two-year note down .30% today. the ten-year note is flat today. the ecb's christine lagarde refused to add to the policy pivot early next year following the central bank decision to keep rates on hold. the ecb president insisted rates would remain at heightened levels through 2024. it lifted bond yields off the lows following the wednesday fed decision and prompted a spike in the euro. lagarde stressed that contrary to the fed, no one on the ecb governing council brought up the notion of rate cuts. >> we did not, we did not discuss rate cuts at all.

no discussion. no debate on this issue. i think everybody in the room takes the view between hike and cut is a whole plateau of hold. it is like -- i don't know. solid and liquid gas. you don't go from solid to gas without going through the liquid phase. this was just not discussed. >> quite like that analogy. solid and liquid gas. it highlights the point. emphatic from christine lagarde there. the bank of england pushed back against any suggestion of the policy pivot as it held steady at 5.2%. it said rates would need to remain higher for an extended period and would remain sticky in the economy.

elsewhere, the swiss national bank held rates at 5.7%. it said pressures have eased, but flaggeduncertainty. norway's central bank hiking its benchmark rate by 25 basis points and saying it will likely keep rates at that level until the end of next year. it has been a busy week. i'm happy to say the head of global sovereign and currency from fixed asset management joining mess o on the set. do you think the market reaction was consistent with the messaging the fed wanted to give? >> i think so. i wasn't surprised. i think we have seen early signs of central bank success to bring inflation down 2% next year.

as inflation comes down to 2%, monetary policy can be normalized to a neutral level which will be around 3% for the fed and 2% ecb and maybe 1% for bank of japan. bank of japan going in the opposite direction. >> you said 1% for bank of japan? that is a big hiking forecast. >> before the fed, ecb cuts rates next year. the next six months is the best window for the bank of japan to exit from the stextraordinary monetary stance for qqe and ycc. >> do you think they will say anything in december? >> it is not possible to know. the bank of japan has prepared the market at every meeting. they are getting closer to the lift point. >> time is ticking.

other central banks around the world are starting to cut. let me go back to what you said about the fed. neutral rate at 3%. over what timeframe? it is not just where they end up, but how fast they get there and how fast they start cutting. what will they do? >> it is best to look at the pace. i said if any central bank increases inflation target, it would be counter productive. the inflation target goes up and the reverse is also true as inflation falls to 2%, for every 1% decrease in inflation, central bank can cut rate by .50%. if you think about it, inflation from 3.5% to 2%, but it can cut the rates more than 200 basis points. if the recession, i think the rate can go down below 3%.

1% or 2% is possible. >> what are you recommending for clients to do here ? we had a tremendous rally in fixed income. do we continue or will we meet resistance? >> exactly where the yield will be next week is difficult. we think investors should have maintained a duration buy to buy on dips. even today, longer duration. we have benefitted to get to the new high. i think it is impossible to know with exactly where the market will be in one day or one week. as inflation falls to 2%, i think the ten-year treasury yield will be lower by the end of next year. >> we had a lot of analysts come

in on the show and many are in the steepening camp as the rate cuts are priced in. recently, there is a more flattening trend which started. do you think that has room to continue? >> we have not been in the steepening camp. steepening requires the central bank to actually cut rates within three-to-six months. the ecb and bank of england are still pushing against an early cut. i think if all of the three were cut except norges bank, is to trend the two-year and seven-year sector. the market is pricing interest rates staying higher for longer. a lot of people are thinking the inflation would be harder.

without any intellectual evidence, believe it. if inflation falls to 2% or lower, and the rate would go much lower. >> we had the eurozone pmi come through which is disappointing. muted activity. we had chris williamson on. he said the numbers suggest the eurozone economic back drop is contra contr contractionary. at what point will the ecb make some policy pivot? >> i think probably q2 next year. i said central bank policy is difficult. i say forward road is the best. if you look at the u.s., gdp is close to pre-pandemic trend. eurozone is far below. if the inflation falls to 2% next year and the growth is

below potential, i just use the simple rule. i think it will be 2% or lower. >> let me round the discussion with the btp. we had the announcement that it will start rolling off at a lower rate than what people pencilled in. it is amazing how the ten-year btp has moved. do you have a opinion? >> we are waiting spain and slovenia within the eurozone which also benefits. we think the countries have better physical stance and a spread over germany. we used to have four countries which were the 100% club. now that membership is moving fast to ten. u.s., uk, france, spain.

i think for these countries, fiscal consolidation is required. i would say gentle like 10% debt reduction over the gdp in the next ten years. otherwise the bond would come back. i read an article saying that is something that the government should pay attention. i don't think that's right because fiscal policy has the deficit high and central bank should keep the interest rate much higher than it should be. the bond market would punish the government. don't do fiscal consolidaconsol. focus on inflation. as inflation comes down, interest rates should come down. >> right now, it seems the people who are focused on the inflation trajectory are winning versus the bond vigilantes.

thank you for joining me. always great to chat with you. let's see if the cnbc.com team writes up anything today. kevin zhao, thank you. and november industrial output surged to the highest since 2022 for germany. retail sales disappointed despite gaining more than 10% on the year. this is how the asian markets are faring into the european session. the close was positive with the exception of the shanghai composite. can't get a bid. i believe it is trading close to a five-year low. hang seng with a recovery with real estate leading that charge in that index. also coming up on "street signs," lvmh dresses itself in green. charlotte will have the latest

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lvmh hosted the live 360 summit in paris. charlotte was there and asked the head of image and environments at the luxury powerhouse how lvmh plans to build on the sustainable fashion goals. >> it has been for a while already. now it is more and more clear and we he say it even louder than we used to say it. we used to be discreet about this. our environment development department exists since 1992 at a time where it was not fashionable to have that inside your company. now it is important to show what you do and this is the symbol of this showcasing of what we do. we are not shy anym more. we are not perfect. we don't try to pretend we are.

we continue to open new stores and we believe in growth. we believe in sobriety, but not in austerity. we don't want to pretend we're going to stop growing or try to stop growing. that's not what we want. i reassure the cnbc spectators. try to do things as good as we can in terms of the environment. >> are you under growing pressure from employees and investors to be transparent on the sustainable targets? >> the three he stakeholders yo mentioned are the ones we look at constantly. even if there is a little bit more probably on the customer. he is really the one you want to please in the end. if up if you don't please him, you have a problem. they are more knowledgeable about the issues. they will check online how you

make your product and not only environmentally, but socially. working conditions are very important. traceability is important to the customer. we tried to be as did as we can on these issues. as for financials and people that watch your tv channel, we . one other aspect is the regulator, especially for the suppliers to reduce the impact of the regulator which can be heavy. >> that was charlotte reporting from paris. let's get to brussels once more. we are on the second day of the eu council meeting. nobody is walking through at this point in time. it has been a very intense 24 hours. the discussions extended late into the evening yesterday. as we have been talking about it, there was a breakthrough,

the eu leaders agreed on accession talks for ukraine. on the flip side, the negative news that silvia reported on, is the fact that hungary is not agreeing to sign off on the 50 billion euro aid package for ukraine. they were successful of the funds from the eu as silvia reported, that was not a quid pro quo. they continue to block the passage of the military aid package that goes toward ukraine. orban has tweeted about it and he said he blocked the aid package to make sure hungary gets the funds it wants from the eu budget. i said if somebody wants to modify the eu budget, it is a great opportunity for hungary to make it clear it must get what it is entitled to, not half of it or one-fourth of it. this is the tweet from the

hungarian prime minister saying s veto for extra money for ukraine. we will come back to the issue next year. that leads us nicely to silvia. as we spoke about it earlier, good news on one hand, but also frustrating for the rest of the eu 26-member state. this passage is not signed off because of the hungarian stance. silvia, is there hope that the beginning of the year that hungary can come on board and sign off on this package or will it be the matter of the 26 doing it alone? >> reporter: the likelihood is we will see the 26 coming together if hungary does not come through and approves the 50 billion euro of financial support to ukraine between now and the emergency summit which is due to take place at the end of january. this is the last european summit

of the year. as you mentioned, joumanna, it delivered both good news and bad news for ukraine. let's see how this process of starting accession talks with ukraine evolve. it was a positive political message from the eu to ukraine at a moment when they are struggling with that counteroffensive. this is our last moment in brussels this year. i want to tell you about what we're looking for as we approach 2024. know that ukraine will be at the top of the eu agenda. also the conflict in the middle east is at the top of the priorities of the eu. migration as well is on the agenda. there will be a year of european elections. a lot at stake when it comes to european politics in 2024 and using the words that the prime minister of belgium just used

when i spoke with him moments ago. belgium will be responsible for the rotating presidency of the council. he told me we will not be bored. i'll leave you with the words summing up what we are expecting for 2024 as well after a very important european summit in brussels. >> i thought the comments you got from the estonian prime minister early on and she was saying it was less what viktor orban says as long as he does the right thing. it is interesting to be a fly on the wall with the execdiscussio. thank you, silvia. we have news from the hong kong stock exchange. he informed the board he will not seek reappointment in may of 2024. he has announced his retirement. that is mr. nicolas aguzin.

that is some breaking news coming from the hong kong stock exchange. let's look at how the european markets are faring. it is mixed. we had a strong day in equity terms yesterday. this morning, we have the ftse 100 trading under water five basis points weaker on the session. cac 40 is .50% firmer. we had the pmi numbers this morning disappointing. another month of declines for the pmi figures. also showing declines versus the prior month. disappointing for those who expected the data to bottom at the levels. week to date, the picture is positive for the european markets. ftse 100 is up 1.2% on the week. we saw a bit of a rebound in basic resources this week. that explains the gains in the

index. cac 40 is up 1.2% for the week. the dax is up .20%. the dax made a new record high yesterday at 17,000. a quick look at italian banks. this is interesting. it has flown under the radar. it has not barometrieen a prett for italian banks. coming under selling pressure as many banks look away from the net income sensitive banks toward other banks in the region. italian banks have that repositioning. that is it for the show. i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. we will leave you with a look at the u.s. futures. my name is ashley cortez and i'm the founder of the stay beautiful foundation when i started in 2016 i would go to the post office and literally fill out each person's name on a label and now with shipstation we are shipping 500 beauty boxes a month

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is your "five@5." the fed fuel rally. the market is said to do something for the first time since 2017. futures are higher again. today, two major market moving events could put the rally at risk. we layout what's on the line. just tin time for christmas mastercard is out with the spending poll data and how much easing is helping consumers. and citi ceo makes a move to boost the bottom line of the bank. later in the