>> welcome to power lunch. i'm steve liesman alongside kelly evans. in for the irreplaceable tyler matheson. mark it's getting a reality check this morning after his soaring to new highs on hopes the fed would cut sooner rather than later. the feds john williams tell me, not talking about rate cuts right now. let really, anyway, that's what he said. >> that was a great interview today. we will talk a lot more about it. all three future averages are still on pace for the seventh week of games in a row. what are traitors as, with a rally like this, some have gotten ahead of themselves. we will get his take on three names with new games recently. give you a quick check on the market action. we were just referencing. that was down 60 points at this hour. s&p down a quarter percent. nasdaq, trying to see positive in danger of giving up those gains. apple, hitting an all-time high today. although the stock is still underperforming the broader

markets. not even up 1% this week. >> costco also hitting new highs today after its earnings beat and the company is going to share the wealth. announcing a special dividend of 15 bucks a share. that amounts to 6.7 billion dollars. let's begin with insider world -- markets on the fence starting wednesday afternoon with finn -- fed charles responsible question about when and how the federal decide to cut rates. >> we are aware of the risk that we would hang on to. you know, we know that's a risk and we are very focused on not making that mistake. >> the markets clearly cut -- cuts would be coming sooner rather than later. the dow soared to new all-time highs, but this morning, i spoke with new york fed president john williams. he tried to say, i don't know. inch back, yanked back the robe little bit on wall street. >> we aren't really talking about rate cuts right now. we are very focused on the question in front of us, which, as cher palace said, the question is, have we gotten

monetary policy to a sufficiently restrictive stance in order to ensure that inflation comes back down to 2%? that is the question in front of us. that's what we have been really thinking about for the past five months and i think we will be continuing to think about it for sometime. >> let's talk about all this, what's in the cards -- are pelvic sports running us now. matt orton, chief -- investment management. onset, ron and -- chief market strategist of dynasty financial partners. also a cnbc contributor and a longtime colleague and friend of mine. ron -- >> indeed. >> i want to start with you. make sense of what john miller was saying and what fed chair pelosi. >> i can't make sense of what john williams said because if you look at the top lots, look at what -- said yesterday, clearly, they got easing on their mind, you know? they know that inflation has been defeated. they know that it has come down considerably. they know it's going to go down more. there's really nothing out there in the pipeline that would suggest inflation is going to reaccelerate, so, they're going to want to go to neutral at some point. there are restrictive. i think they're sufficiently restrictive. they've been sufficiently

restrictive, so maybe they walk it back just because of the market response was so dramatic. as maybe more than they wanted. but that doesn't mean that they're not thinking about it. >> that's my take away, is an attempt to sort of claw back a little bit of the massive -- >> i don't know why they would bother, right? they rang the bell, right? they rang the bell, so rates are coming down, stocks are going up. >> you mean that -- sense that everyone's been salivating? >> yeah, they actually rang the bell when the pause. >> matt, do you want to chime in on this? where is the center of the board here? what's the best outlook for what the fed does in the near term? >> yeah, you know, steve, i agree with what smith said. i think -- was -- trying to walk back the market expectations a little bit, but the market has had a pretty good tendency over the past year to get ahead of itself. i mean, we saw the same thing happened when the market refused to accept higher for longer and it had to match and move toward where the fed was. now i think it might be getting ahead of itself with respect to the degree of rate cuts. not so much that rate cuts are coming, you know?

i've been saying for a while that we reached the peak in this cycle. but i think we've gotten a little over our skis in thinking that march and into january is the time when the feds going to start cutting rates. so, what i remind our clients is that what a winning strategy -- over the past year, it has been waiting for the market to come to you. being opportunistic with downside when the market gets ahead of itself, when you have overreactions to new news. so, continue to wait for that to happen. now, don't chase the market higher and leading to higher quality investments because if rates are going to come down dramatically, i am not so sure what that says about the economic outlook. i've always been an emboldened recession camp where i think selectivity is going to be much more important, going forward. >> in that sense, run, john -- could be saving you a few bucks today. whether or not you agree with how he said it. the idea that the market was all in, and i mean that in the clear sense of a texas hold them game with, you know, all my chips. i am in on march.

that is probably the wrong play here. >> who cares? when i was born in 1961, the dow was at six 60. that's a 37,000. so, if you're playing for nickels and dimes or whether the feds going to do this in march, weather going to do in may, you know? what is going to have a bull market run in 2024 which, by the way, is a fourth year of a presidential cycle. if the fed is easing, you've got tail winds that will push the market higher. i don't think you try to time the market here. they're giving you a fairly clear signal that risk assets will be more attractive as the cost of capital comes down. >> maybe the only way to ask that is to say, do they look at the reaction last few days and just think, well, we just brought forward all 2024? this is getting ahead of itself. >> the reaction function, as you're heading to, kelly, is really around unemployment and inflation. not necessarily our market behavior. i mean, every other cycle that i've seen, the markets get out in front of the fed, they get out in front of everything, and the fed plays catch-up. not the other way around. so, i wouldn't be trying to time things here and yeah, you might see a pullback because we've done pretty far, pretty

fast. but if we are entering an easing cycle, it's historically been very good for -- >> matt, let's just say i've got, i don't know, queen jack instead of pocket aces. tell me what to do right now. is it a good time to, is it too late to buy a one year, two year, three year notes right now? or is there another better, more interesting way to put money to work in the fixed income world? >> no, i don't think it is too late because rates are coming down and i think the front band still has a long way to move. but i think for longer term investors -- >> hold on, matt. i want to cut you off there. when you see the front and, are you talking about two and shorter from their? >> two and shorter, exactly. >> so, where we are now on the two? we're down near, you know, for 20? was that the latest we were at their? sorry, i missed that thing. but where is it going, matt? >> so, i think we're going south of four because if we do have a softer landing, if the fed does continue to cut, we're going to see steepening of the curve. i mean, that's been a decent

traded client. i think we're seeing some balls deepening of-ing right now, but beyond just looking at the treasury markets, and i like to remind investors as well that there is a lot of really good, high quality corporate, even double bees in the high yield area. what is most important to realize his the increase in yields that you had in the corporate space for this year, most of that has been the risk free rate increasing. it hasn't been so much spreads widening out dramatically. so, you're getting a unique opportunity. the best opportunity, i would say, over the past 13, 14 years, to get high quality investment grade, high quality, high yield debt. and incredibly attractive rates for most of that move has been. because of the risk free yield. >> the only run, i just want to circle back on one thing is that which is the historically easing cycles are bullish. obviously, that's true in a recession, right? so, -- >> it actually is. >> well, then what do you mean by the easing cycle? >> so, the fed eases in

response to what i've said -- commercial real estate that's coming -- severe finance that creates a little quasi-systemic issue. >> >> -- payroll reports are drab jobless games are something, they're turning south. >> so markets always looked across the valley, right? markets were bottom before the economy does, markets take off -- >> but they have to go down first. >> well, they just did. >> -- >> 2022 was really rough, right? >> the stats we know that the market typically, bear markets or whatever, when rush essence of the market, it typically sells of 30%. so, if we're going into a downturn, we still will have to expect that kind of sell-off. it's just that you think we don't need this time and so, this isn't cycle might be one of the few that's predicated not on an economic downturn, but literally just on this inflation? >> yeah, i would guess that if we have a recession, barring some unforeseen catastrophe somewhere in the world, it would be mild, right? maybe we go to four, four and a half percent unemployment, which back in the old days used to be considered full employment. so, it was 5%. if we're disinflation, as you suggest, then that's also good for equities because rates will come down and, i don't know if

you want to call it immaculate disinflation, which is a -- type expression or what have you, but you know, china's exporting deflation to. so, i think you've got more tail winds that headwinds going into 2024. >> i went to pick up on what you just said. i want to parse your words too much, but what you just said, it sounded like you don't think the seeds of the next recession are planted yet. that there is another shock that would come, that would create that recession, that we escape what we have been through without that recession. >> i'm not sure. i mean, i think we could have a mild recession in the first half of next year, but it doesn't have to be catastrophic, right? 94, 95, that type of thing. even 97, 98. when we did have some large-scale events take place. i don't know if commercial real estate multi family real estate that needs to be refinance next year will be a big enough shot throws into a recession, but it will probably be a big enough when to get the fed t.e.s. >> matt, in such a scenario, is it a heads i wind -- when it comes to corporate bonds?

can i still do well in those same tenners and rating bonds, the bees and even the seas, if we do have a recession? >> i don't think so. i don't think the seas are going to perform incredibly well. it goes back to the biggest theme i have been talking with clients about, which is, you have to lean into quality. you know, selectivity hasn't mattered that much because we've had such significant macro distortions impacting the overall market. but going forward, even if we avoid a recession, growth is still slowing. there is going to be, you know, we're going to know who is out with their pants down going forward and you're going to want to own higher quality corporate debts. to me, you need to own companies that are profitable or generating free cash flow. and actually have earnings momentum on board. that applies on the equity side of the equation as well. so, i think for fixed income and equities, the -- with respect to quality is very,

very similar. and there is still plenty of opportunities in this market. you know, a recession or no recession, the average stock of this year is not at all reflective of what the indices, broadly speaking, have done. and so, there's a tremendous opportunity where they're such bifurcation in this market for investors to be selective and actually own good companies that can be the market going forward. so, i think this market breath expects, which i bet it will in 2024. owning that breath is where you're going to be successful. >> -- as wide as owning india, something that you had in your notes there. >> yeah, you know, i think emerging markets are emerging again and india has been my top pick for the past two years. i still think india continues to do well going forward because you've gotten rate great combination of -- significant infrastructure development. india is one, china has lost. you've got margin expansion and earnings growth, that's a great cocktail for markets to

continue to move higher. >> we have to do a segment on india one of these days. every time in my 20 years of business reporting, india seems to get it right. it finds a way to mess it up overtime. >> i will tell you what the, that markets up among a few asian markets that are doing better this year. if the dollar -- can go down -- >> so much better. >> investing in overseas makes much sense. >> matt, ron, thank you very much. quick programming note, don't miss my exclusive interview on monday with president austan goolsbee. that's at 8:30 eastern -- >> he owes me a phone call about rap music, if you wouldn't mind. >> and can quickly interject, guys on the back? >> is your shoe, you do whatever you want. >> -- in the past hour or so since we have our senior economics reporter steve -- here, we've had goals be, himself, talking about how the fed did not rule out the possibility of cutting rates at its meeting in march. that was when he told the journal we've had bostic seeing two rate cuts in 2024 in the third quarter to reuters. so, at odds with the -- >> u.s. weather going to do next year? >> well, a lot of this is going to happen. i think the conversation that we just had is really important because things are shifting and

moving in that changes. it was easy to clip coupons, put your feet up, put your money in a money market fund, and you are going to get four, 5%. that's going to -- >> for the first time in 15 years. >> right. if math is right, that number is going to come down and the thing that i've been screaming about on this show and others is the problem with a one-year note is that it is one year. it means you have to make another decision after six months or a year, and maybe you'll be perfectly happy. maybe matt is right, there's more for it to come down, in terms of the yield. >> if you are hoping to get in the stock market down 30% after that one year, and instead, it's not that much, that's very different story. >> that's why you barr belt, right? you buy short and long term treasuries and you can roll out of the short term, and after -- >> whatever you do, do it slowly, overtime. don't try to time the market. >> correct. i >> think dollar cost averaging it is the most boring thing, but there's a bit of a free lunch in that. >> coming up, we've talked about the stock market impact of the powell pivot and the williams walk back.

we will have more on the reaction and the bond market in just a moment. and as we head to break, take a quick look of shares of -- restaurants slightly lower after an earnings beat, and upbeat guidance. investors, though, our focus on the revenue miss and drop in -- restaurant sales, which the company attributed at least, in part, to customers spending less on alcohol. power lunch we'll be right back. back. as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises. as a fiduciary, i promise to be the financial steward that you and your family need. i promise to put your long-term financial well-being above any short term transaction. everyone has a big picture. my job is to help you invest in yours. [announcer] charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com welcome back to power lunch.

-- today's lost ten yell down is 30 basis points of the week. let's get to rick centrality and chicago. rick, fed talking, my kneels moving, sleigh bells ringing, you left for this moment? >> well, i can tell you this. we have three central bankers meet this week. we had the fed, bank of england, and ecb, what's fascinating is is that all the patterns in the markets are very similar. and that's important because there's certain characteristics about global growth of course and inflation that are going to be shared. granted, there's some unique aspects to each economy but it pays at this point to pay attention to all three central banks and the short maturity and long maturity markets. let's look at short maturities, you look at a two-year, a two year and three different settings. the u.s., of course, the

european union, and the uk, we'll start them all in may. as you can see as you go through, or hovering almost unchanged, steve, we're settling at 4:43, hovering at 4:41. we're also down in the 30 basis point capital tier -- it's getting smaller at the long shorthand is rallying rates here as prices fall. when you look at booms, they close, they close at 2:54 which means they well below the two 76 settlement at the end of last year. finally, if we look at guilds, they're hovering at 4:28, while higher than the 3:53 settlement at the end of last year. what you really want to pay attention is the uk, their market is especially in the short end, they've been a bit more aggressive in terms of their staying power at higher rates. all this is key and the main reason it is key, it's because there is less inflation around the globe but there's less

growth. the u.s. is leaving the charge on that side of the equation, and depending on the european growth factors into the u.s. growth, ultimately we need to mesh all the strategies in the central bank. my opinion is they're all gonna be easing around the same time. the issue is exactly when in 2024 that begins. back to you. >> super interesting the whole we might need before they do, their economies are weaker thing. to be continued. nick, thank. you >> shop drop of yields may help bonds from delivering the third down in a row. do you want to own them going into 2024? and if so, which was? joining us now is michael kashima of morgan stanley ceo broad markets fixed income. michael, different tone today than if the year had ended on august 15th, isn't it? >> reporter: >> reporter: what's the mirror image, earlier this year in september with strong growth in the u.s. and third quarter it accelerated growth it's aimed. the fed is raising rates likely

again, ten year bond royals at 5%, it look like another dire year but it all turned around in the fourth quarter. >> where would you find the most value. i was reading david's node at jeffries but he's talking about looking at fixed incomes and where you want to be positioned in 2024 for this soft landing period we appear to be going through. what would you say? >> reporter: it seems to me that it's very likely the fed cuts interest rates next year. inflation is coming down, the economy is accelerating into next year, we don't know how weak it will be but it's accelerating in the second half of 2024. on the question of when and how much the fat is gonna cut interest rates, right now the market is aggressive on rate hikes occurring in q1 in march of next year. it seems to be on the early side and there's no reason for the fed to cut interest rates unless something strange happens in the world. we'd say overall higher quality bonds, high yield bonds are

looking pretty good, don't expect the returns that we got that we're gonna get in 2023 to repeat in 2024. you're not likely to see on the level of long term interest rate drops that we've seen lately in 2024. >> michael, do you expect to see money coming from the money market funds into the treasury market or the corporate bond market, won't it past go and go into the stock market? >> reporter: good question. a lot of money sitting in cash. with interest rates as high as they are in money market, over 5%, why extend maturity and that was the right strategy until q4. there is a potential fear of missing out, you don't want to be sitting in cash one cash goes to five and a half to four next year potentially. and equities are up some five and 10% next year, when yields or down another 25 to 50 basis points, generating superior

returns to cash. i think it's more likely to go into investment grade bonds in particular. it might jump all the way from cash to equity, equities the riskier and of the financial market spectrum. if there is an intermediate drum into corporate bonds, both investment grade and high yields, they're still offering attractive yields from a long term perspective. they come down a lot but you're talking 5% plus yields, inflation on its way to two, 3% after inflation, a real yield on high quality corporate bonds looks attractive. i think that would be part of a market that attracts the most interest soonest. >> that's an important distinction. you're saying don't be mad that you missed the high yield grade. will be thankful i guess, jump on the opportunity that you're getting still a good real return. the reason the fat is cutting rates because because inflation is coming down, it flattens or nominal yield, right?

>> reporter: exactly. because the fed provides a somewhat of a push on the economy, we will be cutting interest rates even if the economy does okay next year. the probability of a recession next year is dropping. and it's various supportive for equity, high yield bonds, it's good for all those elements, not so good for u.s. treasury, because if there's still a recession the amount of raleigh you have an treasuries is somewhat circumscribed. >> michael, this is just the beginning of a conversation. i'm glad you joined us to start it. we'll have to have you back because there's so many more questions about where to put that money in terms of the corporates and whether or not it sounds to me when you said, the fed is underwriting the economy i might want to stretch out into junk a little bit. my risk of default is even more. >> top off the cliff, michael, it's the second time he mentions junk this hour. >> if you're telling me there is a push, the fault rates are built into the yield, i get a gift, don't tie?

>> reporter: you potentially do, yes, fundamentals from that perspective are very good, current spread should be narrow than they are on average for really confident there will be a recession next year over cash flows hold up. bonds may look expensive today but if the macro story turns out okay next year, it looks like it will, you'll be fine. >> thank you. come on, kelly. >> if you're confident. >> triple c minus. thank you, michael. >> we appreciate. it >> coming up what works -- to work from home to the end of the year. with a corporate restructuring looming many are reportedly scared they may not have a job to return to in the new year. look at the key details when power lunch returns. a few years ago, i came to saona, they told me there's no electricity on the island.

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lunch. term while continuing at citigroup, learning that the company told employees to work from home over the final two weeks of the year. although it sounds nice it's worrying some.

-- our reporter joins us on set. steve, great to be with you. this is a holiday gift from citigroup. she says, listen, everyone is tired of the year that we had you can take the last few weeks and work from home, you can work remotely from anywhere in the country and what you work. the context of that, the reality it runs through the facts, she has this project bora bora, this re-oral project. >> bora bora? let's think of a worst name to call, a less ominous name to call a corporate restructuring. bora bora? >> you don't think the zero waters of bora bora aren't good for cutting thousands of jobs? >> i know we asked, what was the rationale did we ever find out? >> some consultant knows the answer to that, kelly. >> we got paid for that name. >> i interrupted you, go ahead. >> the context of this two week

that you can work remotely as a gift, it's perceived as a park. however, there is the issue that come january you're not sure if you have a seat when you come back to the office, and that's the spasm of anxiety that's running through cities. most of them have ability and can be high bread, yet now they have this park. >> the idea is work ahead, work at home, there may not be a job when you come back and that's the concern? it comes right when they're getting out of -- >> that's the other leg of the story. it's been reported and confirmed, citigroup is part of the project bora bora is examining line by line, business by business, all the business they don't earn a great return. typically, in banking that's a 10% return uncommon equity. this business what you should be a top five, top two business on wall street is more like a seven or eight, it's a lag or because as you know, texas doesn't deal with them anymore,

it markets from -- there was controversy over guns, we don't need to get into that. jane frazier decided, even though there's puts intakes were out of this business which is municipal bond trading and issuance. >> is the last citigroup is in the last business that citigroup may exit? >> i talk to my sources, it's not the last, there are other low return business says what you are right for the cutting. one person on the consumer side said, we have a private label credit card business, you have a brooks brother card it only works at brooke's brother, steve. in this case, foot traffic at places like that is far off a cliff. these types of consumer businesses that don't earn a good return are possible for cats. >> what's the goal, what is citigroup want to be? >> more profitable. [laughter] >> what should i know citigroup as the best at? >> good question.

i think first of all, the shareholders have been killed in the stock. if you put a screen of the stop of a 15 years it's gone nowhere. versus everybody else that has recovered i'm talking about morgan stanley, -- this has been a lag or. that's the first thing, stop killing the schroeder holders and stop. in terms of the client side, they want to be known as the most global client-centric firms. they want to be good big involved management, they struggled there. >> thank you very much to bring us the story. >> jane frazier has their work cut out for sure. let's get up to bertha coombs for the cnbc update. kelly, israeli military officials say that troops mistakenly killed three hostages during a ground operation in gaza. the idf says that hostages and two soldiers and civilians were kidnapped from the super nova music festival. their bodies have been returned to israel. >> reporter: a kinetic appeals court upheld $75,000 in fines

today against conspiracy theorist, alex jones. who is charged for a fee not showing up to a deposition in a lawsuit by sandy hook families for calling the 2012 connecticut school shooting a hoax. that suit eventually led to a 1.4 billion dollar judgment. joan said that he had a medical problem that prevented him from making it to the deposition. the court found he still managed to have a live broadcast of his info works show at the same time. jury deliberations resume a few minutes ago in the domestic violence case involving marvel actor jonathan majors. they are deciding whether majors is guilty of assaulting his then girlfriend in a struggle that allegedly began in the back of a car last spring. majors has denied any wrongdoing and claims that she assaulted him.

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the comeback in bitcoin has been great news for coinbase, the stock is up more than 300% this year, it has fallen today a bit. let's get to kate rudy for those details. kate? >> reporter: hey there, steve. a setback for queen base, the s.e.c. denying the request for a new crypto rule saying that existing rules that govern stocks, etf's were just fine for crypto as you see carrie gensler reporting the point that he's made before existing laws and regulations already apply to. it cryptos markets he said the s.e.c. addresses the crypto market through rulemaking and says it's important to maintain

discussion regarding rulemaking priorities. he emphasized that well crypto sees outsized fraud relative to its size it's a very small portion of the hundred and ten trillion dollar capital markets. it's important that commission maintain discretion on where to focus and which parts of the market need updating regulation. coinbase chief legal officer, paul gray wall, says the company plans to respond in court later today and calls the denial arbitrary and capricious. >> we will lay out why sensible rules for crypto are not a special asset or a request for special treatment on the part of the industry. we're saying regulate is like you regulate other industries, provide workable, sensible pathways so that issuers and exchanges like wayne bass and others can register, come inside the perimeter. >> reporter: coinbase is fighting charges by the -- unregistered securities exchange which it also denies.

it's gonna play that case before a federal judge in january. today's news hitting chairs of coinbase and robin hood that's hidden crypto in recent years. -- >> new government is identifying artificial intelligence as a potential risk to the u.s. financial system. gia bosa spoke to one a i start up about that for today's tech check, deidre? >> reporter: hey kelly. -- he had comments on a.i. in the risk. most of the focus this year has been an individual large language models and chat bots. there's open a.i., gpt-4, eagle has barred, increasing regulators are starting to worry about the downsides of relying on one, or building applications drawing from one set of data. it can lead to a single point of failure, amplify biases, lock in vendors, sort of like we've seed in the cloud computing industry. the report you are referring to reports that the lines of a.i. and large data sets and

third-party vendors introduces risks related to data control, privacy, and cybersecurity. this is something that amazon has been talking about this year. the idea that there won't be one model to rule them out. it's in their tagline. we spoke to a founder that is building his company on this very idea, builder dot a.i.. the best ways to describe it is a.i. from dummies, it dries -- apps in a very non technical way. here is sash and mcdougal explaining his product, natasha, is different on what microsoft an opening higher building. >> a lot of people are building large language models and you ask them specific questions. you have evolutions like code, it can help you complete a function or complete something in a programming language. natasha is different. one, she's not based on -- technology. >> this is valued at half a billion dollars with surprise, surprise, that are strategic

investment for microsoft. it has it hands everywhere. it's the start-ups that are building the actual models that are getting the most funding and the most buys this week. a paris by -- close to 450 million dollar serious funding round at a two billion dollar valuation that is an enormous amount for series a. it comes after the seed round that tells you that there's plenty of money out there for a certain start-ups while elsewhere in the space the gravy train is starting to slow, especially for the so-called arab or companies who are more on generative a.i. landscape. go to nbc.com slash -- in-depth videos that explain angle beyond the headlines. back to you. >> deidre, when you put you on the spot, give me an understandable metaphor for understanding how that individuals model is different? is it like i'm gonna access and

ask a whole bunch of google and being, all these other search engines at the same time, is it gonna aggregate answers from different sources? >> reporter: yeah, let me do this in the least technical way possible. there are the companies that are building these foundational models. they're getting information from many, many different places, it requires a ton of computer power, billions of billions of dollars in spending. it requires nvidia gps, things like that, a builder dot a.i., you can call it an a.i. grabber company, it's not expropriating those moderate -- and researchers on their staff. they're building, using models. you often see that those kinds of start-ups are left valuable because they don't have to pay for as many computer power, they also don't have anything prepared -- >> you're explaining a.i. for dummies. >> reporter: i try, i try. >> it could be a series, a.i. for dummies.

deidre, thank very. much of a great weekend. will reveal the millionaire mindset and will reveal the cnbc millionaire survey, where they say they're putting their money and what they think is the rally. power lunch coming right back. power lunch coming right back. ,

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pace to pose quiet for the seventh straight week, with the hope that the u.s. economy will avoid recession and instead come in for a nice, soft landing. robert frank has been surveilling millionaires for the thoughts on the market and the economy. robert, -- millionaires holding cash they're worried about washington. cbc millionaire survey, we pull those with assets, we've got most millionaire investor say the s&p will be up at least 5% by the end of next year, over 20% expect double digit gains in 2024. 21 prospect expect markets to be flat. they're planning to keep 40% of their portfolio and stop next

year, 18 fixed incomes keeping a lot of cash with 25% of the investments in the short term money market and cash equivalents. their favorite sectors for stocks next year are tech and financials. when it comes to the overall economy, millionaires are a bit more -- 42% say the economy will be worker much weaker next year. 30% will say will be stronger. the biggest threats to the economy next year they say is government dysfunction. inflation is still also a big concern along with national that. millennial millionaires are still the most bullish about the economy will be stronger next year. more than a third say markets will be up double digits next year. kelly? >> i was gonna say do you think we need to upgrade this to the billionaire survey at some point? i'm throwing that out there. steve, what were you gonna? say >> i was gonna ask robert if he knows the ages of the

respondents. if you put that portfolio breakdown up again, it looks like the portfolio of an older person. i'm wondering how much that portfolio percentages are colored by the age of the people rather than their preference for one or the other. >> it's a great point, steve, the reason we pull billionaires, we'll get to billionaires that could be good. the millionaires hold about 85% of age will stop, we track this group because they have an outside influence on the market. to steve's question, steve, you nailed it. you're absolutely right. the average age, i didn't check this survey in the past it's the upper 50s and low 50s, when it's net worth and it's not necessarily high-end come. these are people that have saved over their lives to get 1 million dollars a net assets. we do break it out, there's a

millennial component, there's gen x, and boomers all represented. we have some of the democrats but you're right, it tends to be a slightly older crowd by nature of it being invested assets as opposed to just high income. >> i'm gonna contradict myself with my late father, may he rest in peace. he passed with a portfolio and then gave it to you. [laughter] >> did he pass it on to you? >> he did pass it on to. may i have to sell it all big conflict of interest. >> such a standing move by him. robert, thank you very much. coming up we'll check the charts on some highflying names to look over broad and ask a technician of the things are trending through a pullback. power lunch we'll be right back.

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time for technical support. we have a screener today over stalks that could be due for a pullback following this market, big market week we had. here to analyze those names is jay woods, leading capital market corresponded, let's start off with boeing? >> reporter: we're talking about stocks that are over by. we measured over bought, oversold. we look at the relatively

straight index. and it's reading under 30, the stock is oversold and it's due to pause going down, and raleigh. a stock of an rnc over 70, in this case boeing, is that 92 which is -- over bought. the stock is gonna go up 50% in seven weeks since that october 27th lull. if you look at the price action, i backed it out over five years. to give you an idea of what we are seeing in bowing, my lines are wonky when i use this, i apologize. at this level we're coming into is around two 70 to 2 80. we made a full circle back but seeing as we've gone up so far, so fast like of rocket shift -- and it's gonna probably pull back so if you're looking to add to this. >> it needs to stay there to be oversold, it gets there and then it's oversold? >> reporter: in this case, over bought. once it's there, it tells you

that it's getting tired. over bought doesn't mean it needs the reverse. it's just gonna slow down. and in this case, i wouldn't add to this portfolio i'd wait for a pullback somewhere around 2:50, 2:40 would be a good place to buy boeing. there's a lot of work to do. >> let's move on to plane builders to who builders? >> reporter: home builders of the best acting sectors this year, who knew. with mortgage rates at 8% back down to seven. the h -- on the r as i, the stock has made a tremendous move and 56% seven weeks these are not normal you get a nosebleed when you look at these charts. we've seen a 50% move here, the stop though i love. the setup is phenomenal if you go back three years we need back all of 2022 losses during 2023 and broke above. this is what we call a cop and handle. we have a nice rounded bottle, a breakout, a re-test of that

level and all these lines are confusing. when i want to focus is at -- i love that. but given the run it's two for pause, a possible pullback, i buy this on weakness, five to 10% week back. >> the fundamentals have been good, the high in the cycle is 70% mortgages and the home builders are done well? >> reporter: and with recent fires people are seeing several percent. >> it's a bargain. let's move on. >> reporter: royal caribbean, this is a stock that has gone up like the titanic. and what happens. >> take that back. >> reporter: i'm sorry. >> the jury disregards it. >> reporter: we strike that from the record. >> go ahead. >> reporter: what i like about it is it's made of all these losses going back to covid. if you go back another year or two you see it at 1:30 at this level. that 1:20 right now, this stop is in no man's land, i'd stay

away, i'd buy it on a pullback so maybe this level that broke above can act as support. the risk reward set up to the downside is the same from the upside. i would rather wait as they get to 1:25 or 1:30. it took two years to get that level and it never broke above. >> we gotta go. j, i don't like technicals but i thought this was interesting. >> reporter: fun having you around. >> the technicals and the fundamentals. so many headlines to get to. so little time. will power through as many as we can in the closing time, next. 's no electricity on the island. we always thought that whatever we did here would be an emblem of what small communities can achieve. trying to give a better life to people that don't have the means to do it. si mi papá estuviera vivo, sé que él tuviera orgulloso también de vivir de esta viviendo una vida como la que estamos viviendo ahora. es electricidad aquí es salud.

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all so you can trade brilliantly. welcome back, two minutes left in the show. several stories you need and learn about. starting with nvidia, it may be a victim of its own success. the stock is had a stellar year in many years, according to reports there's a downside. nifty employees are so rich now that they no longer work as hard. >> yeah, i don't know about that. when people get older, they work smarter and may value their free time or. i guess that can happen. >> that's like discussing monopolies in companies and the success takes care of itself in certain ways. >> i'm in favor of busting out monopoly. >> i don't think it's a monopoly just yet but it's interesting to watch how quickly the customers are trying to diversify. >> people need to think about older people in the workforce,

they are a major potential source of labor and a country that -- overtime is gonna need more older workers. you need to figure out how to make it work. a cold rush at costco. the warehouse giant said it's still more than 100 million dollars worth of gold bars in its recent quarter. the bar sellout within a few hours of being offered online according to the cfo. -- he tried to take the peel off and it was shocked at the side? >> you know i have held a gold bar. it's incredibly have a. >> it's in the basement of the new york fed, they have the steel toed -- if you drop uncle bar on your, you'll break your toe. >> that's what i wonder how are people firing doing these gold bars. >> is costco putting a warning on the gold bar. >> it must be a smaller version. i like to keep you updated -- is now accusing team of

unlawful an aggressive business jackets including mafia style intimidation, a lawsuit filed by the u.s. parent company, well co-, says -- for competition et cetera, et cetera. >> an update, i bought an old chair and some scrap metal in my clothes for drunk, which we talked about. >> we need to get howard marks on. thank you for watching power lunch. closing bell starts right now. ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome to closing bell i'm sarah isaac in first scott wapner. live from the new york stock exchange, this make-or-break hour begins with the s&p 500. on track for a seventh straight week of gains. here is your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. tech and discretionary, holding on to the utilities and real estate of the worst performing tax sectors are. now boeing's at the top down stop after analysts call for bank of america. the dow is slightly lower in its final hour will look at whether the dow is turned things around. maybe another record close. that brings us to our top of the tape. whether this