jackets including mafia style intimidation, a lawsuit filed by the u.s. parent company, well co-, says -- for competition et cetera, et cetera. >> an update, i bought an old chair and some scrap metal in my clothes for drunk, which we talked about. >> we need to get howard marks on. thank you for watching power lunch. closing bell starts right now. ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome to closing bell i'm sarah isaac in first scott wapner. live from the new york stock exchange, this make-or-break hour begins with the s&p 500. on track for a seventh straight week of gains. here is your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. tech and discretionary, holding on to the utilities and real estate of the worst performing tax sectors are. now boeing's at the top down stop after analysts call for bank of america. the dow is slightly lower in its final hour will look at whether the dow is turned things around. maybe another record close. that brings us to our top of the tape. whether this federally has any

juice left. for that we turn to lauren goodwyn of new york life investment who joins me. -- lauren, does it, we've had a nice rally were up 2.7% on the s&p this week, what now? >> reporter: this is a federal leaf rally that the markets have been waiting for for 18 months. and it has legs. my economic view is less constructed than that's one worry that where we are in this moment of goldilocks is that, a stop on the train towards a difficult economic situation. for the next several weeks, i don't see any opportunity for the data to knock the market off. >> if the data is coming and, it's been pretty benign even the fourth quarter gdp is going up. why are you worried about the outlook, economic outlook? >> the fourth quarter gdp estimate is where we are right now. the market reflects that. which is that things have been going well, there's been no sign of recession, but it's in part because of liquidity surprises that have common over the close of --

including liquidity from the consumer. as we turn the calendar i see more headwinds mostly from the lack of impact, the fed rate hikes for the end of the year, it's an environment that for the next few weeks will probably see a broad range of risk assets continue to perform well. i think we should use the opportunity to rebalance -- in the face of what's continued uncertainty for investors. >> you're saying recession extra? use the opportunity to get more defensive? >> a little bit. there's a range of opportunities that take advantage of the cyclical environment that we're seeing, which includes more defensive sectors than equity and adding duration as a result of what we've been seeing lately. there are also some structural games that have come up over the past couple years, artificial intelligence, and digital infrastructure, things that are likely to be resilient that investors can take advantage. of >> it's hard to see when jobless claims that are above 200,000? it's not a lagging indicator.

there's very little stress in the labor market. why are you more pessimistic about the outlook than most? >> when it comes to what we're seeing in the labor market, while this economic cycle is different in a lot of ways, but we do expect to happen consistent with past economic cycles is that the labor market is strong, it's intel were already in a recession, nine of the last ten recessions we've seen employment improve even accelerate heading into a slowdown. again, employment tells us where we are today and that is absolutely not in a recession. i wouldn't expect the markets to react to negative economic news intel unemployment or earnings tech lower. for me, that number on the unemployment cams rate is two 75. and to your point, and it's nowhere near that area. that >> is the disconnect that you are seeing with the earnings expectation for 2024, if the economy turns south? >> yes, with respect earnings to matter which way we slice it,

expectations for 2024 look optimistic. well things are looking nice right now, there's not as many opportunities for clear upside from the earnings environment. more concerned about the expectations that they are a bit too high. >> on the flip side, if we face a bigger downturn as you expect, doesn't the fed just cut more and want the market share that on? >> it's a good point, for getting that share right now, christmas cheer holidays, fed chair, where the story starts to change when the fed is cutting for benign reasons. the market is likely to respond to recession risk. >> let's bring in jordan jackson. he's from jp morgan asset management, and -- you're usually in washington. are you as pessimistic about the economic outlook as lauren is? >> from a market standpoint, it's kind of hard to be bearish right now. the bulls are out. there was a bill in new jersey transit yesterday morning.

>> i thought people were joking about it because of the market. >> or was a.i., i had no idea. >> apparently it was rule. >> the polls are out, it's thanks to the fed. the biggest surprises i had commented wednesday's meeting with the assumption that chairman powell was gonna push back on the notion of rate cuts. when he lied into the idea that the fed can cut rates next year, even if inflation doesn't have a 2.0 handle on it, it was powerful in this fed induced rally that lauren is highlighting. markets are getting excited about it, you have bonds rallying -- at the end of the year. november retail sales was pretty strong, inflation seems to be coming down faster than the fed would like. all these things that the markets are cheering on i think they're cheering on for good reason. >> that's the goldilocks soft landing. >> reporter: yes, the goldilocks narrative playing out. it's hard to be embarrassed for the short term. >> jay powell led to cuts but

then this morning on fox, john williams president of the new york fed sounded pretty different here is what he said. >> we aren't really talking about rate cuts right now, or focus on the question i had about which is what chairman powell said, the question is how we got an monetary policy to sufficiently restrict a public stance in order to ensure the inflation comes back down to 2%? that's the question in front of us. that's what we've been really thinking about for the past five months. i think we'll be continuing to think about for sometime. >> whether he was trying to walk back the statement, or just inject his own opinion, maybe there's too much emphasis on the cuts, i do wonder if we're at one, jordan, peak cut optimism and whether that's baked in, you both expect the rally to continue but we're price again 150 basis points of cuts next year? >> cuts are pretty aggressive. i think it's a timing issue between powell's comments and williams comments.

the timing is that william suggested that rates can remain higher for a longer, if you look at the dot plot, there's no members that anticipate any rate hikes -- it's the highest that we're gonna get on fed funds, it's a question on whether they'll start cutting and the degree they start to cut. what's been interesting, when you look at volatility both across interest rate markets and equity markets, i was coming into the wednesday meeting with the anticipation that maybe equity has the scope to catch up to interest rate volatility. now the fed has solidified that there are on hold. interest rates can hatch down to the low levels of actually fall. that all ties back to this hard to be -- what >> we saw the rally broaden out this week the small caps have been a huge story in a big comeback story at 5.4% on the weight. laura, and i get it, next year you don't want to be exposed to

that area. do you think there's some catching up from left behind groups? >> i agree with jordan. this rally is broad, it's risk on. in the near term, yes, there is room for it to continue and to be optimistic. the question for investors is how tactical you can be. when it comes to fed speak, i understand that we'll see a pattern that we've seen all year, that the fed and chairman powell work hard within the construct of the meeting not to surprise markets. that everybody is out talking the tape, trying to say, inflation is pretty high, we're not thinking about rate cuts just yet. in the new year, what matters about rate cuts is why the fed is doing it. if you're getting six cuts next year with the -- from my perspective, that's because we're getting the procession. >> thinking now is that they'll be cutting next year because inflation is heading back down to 2%. they feel more confident

bringing policy back to normal levels so they don't wreck the job market which is still good. the economy is still good. >> reporter: right, i've been thinking about a lot with respect to this argument. a, it's economically and mathematically entirely correct, as inflation moves floor you adjust the policy rate to cape real rates neutral and not going up. >> but they're still gonna go up? >> reporter: if the fed is cutting rates in march or may as the market seems to think it might, and nothing is going wrong, i expect we'll continue to see financial market conditions loosen and that's an environment where confidence takes higher. it's hide for me to see that goldilocks not result in an overheating. >> a re-heating of the economy. it's a really delicate balance that they're playing in. >> lauren is using the opportunity, the strength to rebalance, shift into more defensive places that she wants to be in a weaker environment. what about you, what's the

strategy around this year and rally as it continues? >> sure, i agree with a lot of what lawrence points. those tale risks, the risks of going over. >> i'm trying to get you guys to disagree. >> again, tactically, bullish in the short term, will get a bit of wobbles in the market in the first quarter. we know and let's try to overestimate earnings coming into the year by five-day percentage points. there could be that kind of overoptimism amongst analysts, expectations moving into 2024. we need to remind ourselves that so far today, earnings expectations for 2024, have come down by about 3%. companies have done our -- i'd argue in protecting margins. it sets us up for a margin stabilizing over the course of 2024. the big risk is gonna be revenues, inflation coming down, nominal gpt taking a step down, and gdp growth taking a step down. --

picking up a little bit inequity in the first quarter of next year, on the back of the fed cutting rates more aggressively than inflation coming down. the real policy rate becomes more attractive, comes down, and in that allows markets to rally. next year is an election year, that's gonna add a whole another layer of headlines, market uncertainty moving towards the end of the year. we know typically after the result comes through, markets rallied towards the back of the year. i'm calling for a low double digit return coming from the stock market next year. >> what sector is a lead? >> i think growth actually leads the charge. that's gonna be valuation driven, we're seeing it in the market today. >> this month has been a preview? >> this month has been a preview for the first half of 2024. the second half though you're gonna want to be balanced. assuming the fed's not gonna go back down to zero, we look at the data historically going back to 1980, when you look at

what appears -- tenure. between three and 4%, the annual return on value and growth are equal at about five percentage points. i, gang growth is gonna lead the charge given the direction of rates are gonna be lawyer -- then you're gonna be well balanced across -- >> to both of you, this is the year where cash was all that flowed into money market funds, short chasing short term yelled, for the first time in eight weeks, bank of america fund flows tracked outflows. i wonder if you think that that continues what you tell people to do if they're sitting on trillions of dollars in money market funds, time to take it out? >> the movement in bonds is what stirring inventors to move money away from cash. as we look to the new year, i see respect until rising, it may make you more cautious an asset allocation. remaining over allocated to cash is really tricky because even after a market downturn,

when you start to see the market rebound, it's when the economy feels the worst. rebalancing in that environment is just really tricky to actually pull off. typically, getting back into the market is best 2 to 3 months before a fad pauses, you get an uptick that we've seen in the past couple of months. the best time other than that is right now. i do expect that trend will continue. >> into bonds, you want some protection. >> reporter: a balanced portfolio i think that increasingly in 2024 it favors bonds. it needs to do with the quality that we see across bonds especially in traditional less favorites sectors like high yield. as the economy slows, it's because yields are high. >> you guys expect this to be a tail end for the equity market? -- >> i think we at least provide a bit of a floor and how much further stock prices can fall. you know, it's interesting. i was looking at the data

earlier today. if we have a soft landing play out, maybe we can go back to 94, right? the stock market returns, between 1995 and 1999, looking at the price on the s&p 500, on average, the stock market was up 26% per year, per annum, between 1995 and 1999. if you go back to the global financial crisis, outside of negative return years, in every year, maybe a 2011 was a little bit of a wildcard. the stock market has been up double digits. and so, it's actually really hard to have a single digit return you're in the stock market unless you're negative. so, that's why i think coming out of it -- >> barring against a recession? >> maybe less but than markets can whiplash, right? you can get that correction in the first half of 2024 and then markets go off to the races in the back half of the year, recouping those losses,. so, i think i agree, you know, metrics should remain well balanced. i think at 60 40 is probably where you want to be, at least over the near term. then i probably would start to

tilt over one stocks once the fed starts cutting rates. >> yeah, certainly working out right now. thank you guys, really good discussion to wrap of the week. lauren and jordan. we will send it now over to cristina -- for a look at this biggest names here looping into the close. christina? >> i want to start with docusign because they're surging late in the day to report that the east ignore company is working with advisers to explore a sale. so, the wall street journal reports that talks are in early stages and may not actually lead to a deal. the stock, though, had a market cap of roughly 11 billion dollars. before these headlines emerged. so, any transaction would likely be a very big one. shares up almost 12% now. lenore andra pressure despite meeting expectations for learnings and revenue. but bro home sales margin or girls home sales margin fell from the higher year and came in below the company's forecast. while that is weighing on the stop this afternoon, lerner was still able to knock an all-time high earlier in the session. those shares, though, down about 3.5% right now. and tractor supply is also in the red after bank of america

downgraded the outdoor focus retailer to underperform. analysts say, quote, fewer backyard chickens, more back to office. noting that the big boom in a gardening, farming, and outdoor recreation that the pandemic fueled is starting to pull back. price -- seven from two a 7 to 2, 171. shares of by 3%. chickens, i wish i had chickens. >> i know someone who during the pandemic got chickens. >> i do as well. one of hers, like, flew away or disappeared. she got eggs, low. >> my friend to was attacked by another animal. anyway. >> whoa! >> it rings true. thank you. -- we are just getting started here. up next, trading consumer strength. strong data and positive analyst shattered dominating the retail space this week and analysts will give us his topics for 2024 right after a break. we are live from the new york stock exchange. dow down 45 points, we are watching closing bell with cnbc. watching closing bell with cnbc.

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i'm gonna be emotional, she's gonna be emotional, but it's gonna be so worth it. i love that i can give back to one of our customers. i hope you enjoy these amazing gifts. oh my goodness. oh, you guys. i know you like wrestling, so we got you some vip tickets. you have made an impact. so have you. for you guys to be out here doing something like this, >> bank of america, out with a it restores a lot of faith in humanity. bullish note on consumer spending this week saying, november showed, quote, a good start to holiday spending. treasury secretary janet yellen, speaking on the same lines. what is what with her own squawk on the street earlier this week, here's what she had to say about the consumer. >> consumer spending, we have seen, remains solid. consumers built up a buffer stock of saving and wealth during the pandemic.

they've been spending that down gradually. >> here to discuss which retail stocks could benefit the most is oppenheimer's brian natal. ryan, it's good to see you. it really has not been the best year for retail and consumer names, unless you're, like, in the cruise industry or amazon, or a home builder. some of them are actually down year to date. so, what do you do with these retail stocks? >> good afternoon, sarah. so, look, that's a fair assessment. i mean, it's been a very, very tough backdrop for consumer stocks. now, i think the important point there is the stocks. the companies, and i agree with that, janet yellen's comments. spending has held up remarkably well. that -- from a fundamental standpoint, the fundamentals of it are much better, i think, than the stocks. now, the fed announced this week -- is pivotal. the idea now that the rates have likely topped out and a really lower, i think it sets the stage very well for consumer or discretionary

stocks, as we look into 2024. and so, essentially, in my mind, you know, these stocks will begin to catch up or track better, solid, underlying fundamentals that these companies that we've seen for a while now. >> do you want to sort through some of the ones that have had the toughest go this year? foot locker. i'm just, looking tapestry, best buy, bath and body works, tractor supply, they're all down for the year. >> yeah, so a few of those uneasy mentioned, i cover. like best buy, i do cover. i was -- the way i would play this, okay, is i look at what's happening now and into 2024. you know, -- my message to our clients has been, look, the rate sensitive names. you know, so home depot and lowe's -- on the idea that rates are likely to move lower, that's a big positive for home improvement retail. another name i talked about a lot on your show is athleisure. so, names like lemon. lululemon received fantastic results. that stop is doing well. -- we're getting a report from

maggie next week. i think the report itself will be generally in line, but again, what will be on that report? you know, with a backdrop we have is still very solid consumer, lower rates. i think that's when the stock starts work even more. >> do you worry at all about revenue growth at a time where apparel and footwear prices are either just inflating or deflating? because companies benefited from those higher prices, didn't they? >> absolutely. so, the key there is to really understand where the last -- demand is. you know, so they're categories like the autoparts retailers. my team and i downgraded the autoparts retailers a while ago, largely on that concept. now, autozone -- extraordinarily well run companies, but there is not much elasticity of demand. so, they benefited from inflation. this inflation wanes, that mean sales -- revenue growth will be slower. but if you look at companies like nike again, i'm going to keep on highlighting nike. you know, there's more of a plasticity of demand. i don't see nike dropping prices, okay? to be clear. nike has done a very good job on the evasion side.

but as inflationary pressures broadly subside, the consumer feels better, you know, from an inflationary standpoint, you could very much do better improved unit demand for a nike. you know, so that's -- again, the companies you want to be careful of are those that are primarily driving sales through higher prices. again, from my coverage -- highlight the auto parts retailers. >> so, since you are zeroing in on nike, let's talk about it. reports earnings on thursday, it has lagged. i think it's, up like, 3% this year, but it still is valued at 32 times next year's earnings. where is lulu? in the 30s somewhere. why do you think, first of all, nike has been punished and what do you think it's worth? >> yes or negative, 32 multiple is not low, right? -- >> that was kind of the point. >> but for nike, it is, okay? this is nike, this is one of the most dominant global brands on the planet. historically, we've seen that in multiple significantly

higher than 32 times. so, when i think about where that stock should be priced, i look back at history. particularly in environments where rates were lower. that's one knock utensil get a higher multiple. now, fundamentally, this is going to spin a classic -- type stop, okay? as i talk to investors out there, you know, there's been worries about china, worries about demand growth within the united states, there's been worries about inventory. one by one, nike, with its very solid fundamentals, it has essentially tackled those types of worries. again, as we look into 24, i think those concerns that have weighed upon the stop further abate. inventories are now clean. i think we're still seeing solid demand in the united states. i think that's going to get better as nike shifts more -- wholesale partners and everything we're hearing, despite the worries of some type of economic malaise in china, what we hear from nike and frankly from lululemon as well is that demand for these products is quite good. >> but they've all sounded a little bit cautious. i mean, even lulu, which never sounds cautious, remember.

when they came out, they weren't on the holiday season, at least that they were aware of what's happening with the overall environment and numbers, missed estimates. given everything you've heard from all the retail companies you've covered, you expect the consumer to hang in there next year, continue to show growth, even if we are seeing softness in the broader economy? >> i do. look, i think consumer spending has stayed solid and i expected to remain solid. i think the key in this is not the most insightful comment is the job market. i mean, most consumer spending is driven by jobs. if consumers have jobs, they feel comfortable in that job. they think, you know, -- they can find another job. that's what drives most spending decisions and again. despite all the concerns about, you know, -- economy, the global economy, the backdrop, the jobs market with the united states remains very resilient. i think that's been the key driver to most spending. you know, from my standpoint, again, fundamental analyst, i think that holds in.

>> yeah, i mean, some people see the excess savings, though, are running out. janet yellen said they're being spent gradually down. there is that, there's the student loan payment resumption's, there is, you know, fewer s.n.a.p. benefits. you can make arguments on both sides, but i guess jobs is key. >> that's exactly right. all those factors play a piece. jobs are the most important. for general consumer spending. >> got it. thank you, brian. brandon hagel, appreciate, it from oppenheimer. up next, betting on a box office boom. the strike may have hit hollywood hard, but now hopes are high for strong holiday season. we're going to break down the stock that could benefit the most when closing bell comes right back. right back.

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the only way you can move a society forward is a true expression of freedom. ♪♪ >> welcome back. hollywood strikes, weighing on the film industry this year. but now, hopes are high for a strong holiday season and beyond. julia boorstin, here with more. julia? >> sarah, warner bros. wonka

movie grossed three and a half million dollars from thursday night. previews puts it on track to growth as much as $40 million this weekend, after opening with $43 million internationally. and warner brothers, whose stocks are up about 7% this week, has the most on the line this holiday season, with two other big budget films and aquaman seagull as well as the color purple musical, coming out. over the holidays. so, the question is whether those franchises, along with oscar bait and family films, can boost the years box office across the nine billion dollar milestone. your today, this year's box office is two billion dollars below 2019 levels, according to calm score. now, after a mixture for theater chain stalks, jp morgan is predicting that next year, the box office will decline. this, despite a range of big sequels in franchise films set to be released, including sequels to do, that will, transformers, lord of the rings, there is even a mean girls

movie coming out. now, jpmorgan forecasts, though, that the 2025 box office will rebound thanks to a new mission: impossible movie and it's a more marvel movies. but -- politics are being warns us that franchises are no longer safe havens for studios. sarah? >> what happened to amc stock? that hit harder than the others. that's just the correction from the name trade? or what? >> yeah, it's a name stop. amc sort of trade separately from the other theater socks. if you look at this in a market, imax, they tend to reflect more what's going on with the movie industry. amc was really bolstered by that mean stop moment. obviously, it's come down quite a bit. >> yeah, doing equity offering to than everything. julia, thank you. up next, charging the rally. why one top technician is betting on some serious upside for 2024. he will make his case and break down the key levels to watch, right after this break. we will be right back. we will be right back.

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the major averages are set to close out. seventh week of gains here. that's the longest weekly win streak for the s&p 500 since back in 2017. our next guest says, record high could be in the cards for 2024. let's bring in john paulo's, is that of technical strategy at macro risk advisers. john, what do the technicals tell you about how much more legs this rally has?

>> yeah, thanks for having me, sarah. look, listen. we take a step back and we take a look at the trend of the s&p 500 going back to 2009, there is a series of higher highs and higher lows in place here. when i do my forecasting, my trend work, i think the s&p can get to about as high as, you know, 50 to 80 on the upside. but nearly the technical sort of values, i call, it is somewhere closer to around 5000. so, i think we can continue to push up higher on a trend basis to about that 5000 area. also, the other way to kind of think about how we keep pushing up higher would be with breadth. we've had significant breadth russ as of late. good spike in new highs, good volume to the upside, and also market cycles are favoring into next year. >> so, bonds have to keep rallying for all that to happen? >> yeah, so bonds would be a huge part to all of this. basically, this inverse relationship between stocks and interest rates has to keep,

right? so, lower rates, higher stocks. particularly what happens going into recession or a recessionary bear is that the correlation turns similar, turns the same. so then if stocks were just -- rates lower, and i do think rates lower -- consolidate tenure to about 325-ish or so. stocks stop falling down, following them lower than, yeah, 5000 maybe would be hard to be hit. >> who is going to lead this rally? which sectors do you like? >> so, my models are overweight industrials. really like industrials -- still overweight. technology, there are parts of software that would really, really compelling. yeah, i get, it semis have been great, but it's really great ace breakouts that are forming within the small -- area of technology, i like that quite a bit. what i would be avoiding into next year, at least at this stage of the game, would be energy. i think while i'm bullish longer term and loyal, i just don't think it's going lower. so, i want to be avoiding energy after the time being.

same with health care. a lot of the equipment needs there just aren't doing well. you'll find a few biotech's that are okay, but i would be avoiding them. so, basically industrials and technology look really good. then also parts of financials. x banks, insurance look pretty strong, capital markets look good. so -- >> why x banks? because we're finally getting the curb steepening? that's good for banks. >> yeah, to an extent. what i looked like for a longer term perspective as these stocks are just getting off the ground. sure, they're up a lot over the last couple of weeks, but they are barely above moving averages. there are 200 and 80s are not swooping higher. their early stages, not enough repair has been done. -- says they were, but they really just feel kind of counter trend -ish to me. so, the strength right now, that's what i do in my process. i want to lean on long term winners and they tend to not be within banks right now. >> so, you see lower yields, higher stocks. the third ingredient has been a weaker dollar. it's down one and a half percent this week.

also helpful for risk appetite, where do you think that goes? >> yeah, i'm $1 beer. i've been $1 beer for a while. 95 is what i'm looking for on the d x y and major structural peak of two years ago there. it's been progressing nicely. so, so long as those correlations hold in place, that dollar downtown 95 would be pretty good. i think on a short term basis, though, we should keep an eye on is the emerging market currencies like the pay zone, whatnot. those are tied to risk assets. the pace -- does look at once keep working lower, for the time being. but i think we're pretty close to a reversal higher, shorter term. >> it's had a great year. -- like 12%. thank you, john. good to talk to you. john carlos. >> thanks for having me. >> up next, we're talking the biggest movers as we head into the close. kristina partsinevelos standing by with that. christina? >> scholastic book fair is not doing as well and u.s. cools lately and renewable energy names climbingigr. hhe i will have details on both those stories next.

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closing bell. let's get back to kristina partsinevelos for the key stocks watch right now. kristina? >> scholastic is deep in the red this afternoon as the children's book publisher posts a sharp decline in revenue from last year. the company also cited a complex environment in u.s. schools and some big drops in his book club revenues. those shares are down over 11% right now. and some solar stocks are seeing more relief today, as jeffries initiate coverage of first solar and phase, and sun run, with by ratings. analysts see better risk reward dynamics for companies with exposure to utilities gales, strong backlogs, and balance sheets. the group has been hard hit this year because of rising rates, but optimism, of course, around the feds moves in the new year and overall

stabilizing of rates has allowed some of these names to rebound in recent weeks. for example, you're seeing sun run on your screen right now. it's about 60% just in the last month or so, but zoom out on the year, it's still lower. up almost two and a half percent today. sarah? >> yeah, first solar, top of the snp right now, 6%. thank you, christina. >> thanks! >> up next, coinbase your slipping. that's down now 4% or so. we're going to break down what swing on the name. that and much more when weak you inside the market zone. we will be right back.

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it down mark its own. citigroup u.s. equity strategist is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day, plus kate britney with the latest on the ongoing struggle between the upstate standpoint pays. and julia boris and on what is behind the sellout at roku shares today. let's start with you, scott. it is fun to be back in the market zone with you. so, another more than 2% up we care for the s&p 500. the fed, certainly was the big of. and how much of a game changer was it when it comes to the all over stocks? >> clearly it was a game-changer, and again, as we've been saying for a few weeks now. focus a little bit less on funds, focus a bit more on tenure nominal's. so you see what has happened here, the perception we are getting closer and closer to the fed pivot. so, has tenure nominal's have come down below 4%, we really have changed the landscape of how investors are thinking about both a picture but the evaluation picture for this.

so the setup here is pretty constructive. you might argue that we are running a little bit ahead of ourselves in terms of our evaluations. but certainly, we have to acknowledge the trend in getting to a closer tend of fed fake cycle is rapidly approaching. >> the year and targets 5100 by the end of next year, are you thinking of raising that? i know it is early to be doing such things, but you said it was a game-changer what we got from the fed. >> yeah. we will put it in context. so our 5100 is essentially 2:45 in s&p earnings, which is where the consensus is in terms of the strategists. and we get a lot of questions on it. so, i feel pretty good about that framework. what has to happen, quite honestly, for us to end up pushing that target higher is to go to our, we will call it more of a defined soft landing where you can actually get up

sites here with your projections and an end of year close to 260 let's say. and we will then talk about a more aggressive multiple. it is a little premature to get there but that is the way that we have to start thinking about it. >> here is the thing. mark it is so enthusiastic after this week that already up that members out there walking back expectations in terms of march being premature. i expect a whole lot more of that in the next few weeks. is the market going to pull back and start to adjust the timing for the cuts? >> our narrative, and i think that this is a good narrative, you can have this great move, you don't get this type of move without digesting it at some point. it is going to be news dependent on that. as we go into the reporting period, it is still a month away, we are probably going to see a downward revision by a four-year consensus number. as companies are still

expressing caution. so if you think about that in the context of a fed that will argue for premature to get too aggressive on rate cuts here, we do think that you set up for a full back but we want to be very clear thatin the full back we are looking to aggressively position, specifically brought in node with the focus on the cyclical side of it. >> does not include small caps which had quite a banner week? >> we've been arguing for a month or two now that when you think about the setup, the valuations here are attractive and everybody has had a pretty good perspective on that. but what we look at is what we get as a leverage alternative to s&p equal weight, or even s&p enhanced value. so what we think that you get with a small cap is a little bit more of a more aggressive play on an eventual pivot and a risk on the dynamic on the other side of the recession

here. >> so if you expect the market to get broadening out what do you do if you have a lot of exposure to the magnificent seven, the stock that has led this marquette all year long? >> in talking in the investors, one of the narratives that comes out here that you had pretty outsized gains relative to the benchmark weights, so what we are arguing is that the s&p cannot move the highest without the mega cap leadership participating. but on the heels of this year's performance, it's not a huge leap to say can you look at how we think about reducing weights down to eight more comfortable benchmark level, where do we reemploy those funds and that is where we really begin to set the stage for a broadening. that, and the opportunity we think with cash that still on the sideline that thought that it had time to move out the duration curb that is sort of second guessing itself. >> really quickly, what is the biggest risk to your forecast

at this point for this year? >> it's got to be careful what you wish for. so what is not happening with the potential pivot in a weaker feds fund perspective, they are going to do that in response to micro concerns and maybe even micro concerns. so just because we are getting closer to this peeking fed in the fed narrative it says that we want to own equities, you've got to be prepared that the volatility is going to come with that. so essentially, the argument would be be careful what you wish for, we are going to have to navigate some volatility next year. be prepared, and be prepared to buy into that. >> improvement as we speak here. just into the close. thank you very much, scott kroner with the dowd going positive here in the final moments of trade. meanwhile, watching shares, they are coming under pressure today. kate rooney has the details behind that move. kate? >> hi sarah. the fcc today denying the request for new crypto rules. they said the existing rules that govern, things like talks,

they were just fine when it comes to crypto. they're repeating a point they've made before. existing laws and regulations already applied to the crypto securities market. they also said that the fcc addresses crypto markets for rulemaking already emphasizing that while crypto does see outside as fraud relative to its size it is also a very small portion of the 110 trillion dollar capital markets out there and said that it is important decommissioning teen discretion to focus on whichever parts of the market they think need updated regulation. the chief legal officer, we spoke to him earlier, he said the company did plan to respond. in court, they actually just did, they called it the fcc's denial of this arbitrary and capricious in what they just filed. today's news, you could also see that it is heavily into crypto in recent years down today more than 3% with both of those companies. >> the case for the big decision that the market is very much anticipating, and

also variant twos yeah stick, it will pass this time. >> it doesn't a sense of how you can just give it the tone again here. you spoke to him recently as well. he has not shown his hand at all when it comes to that decision. poor more cold water on more specific indio synkinetic legal battles that they are fighting and these are very specific cases not much to read into in terms of what it means for bitcoin approval. other than getting answers that are a repeated statement that this needs to be regulated like any other traditional financial market including stocks and bonds. and also again they called it fraud which is one of the reasons why they have not approved this. >> they did that in the interview as well. kate rooney, thank you. now over to julia boorstin we what is roku shares.

>> roku shares have been plummeting, they downgraded the stock to sell saying about the evaluation is stretched relative to its top line risks not d.c.. shares are down 7% right now. the roku shares have been on a tear, the saga is still up 106% in the past 12 months and is up 26% in the past three months. michael nathan has a warning that roku's revenue growth was filled in part by massive price increases and streaming video on demand services and they expect a sluggish streaming video on demand market, tough comparisons to this year, as well as increasing competition going forward. so after roku's big gains the past year, now 12% of analysts have been celebrating on this stop. 48% have a hold and 39% have a buy. sarah? >> what has been going on with growth of the company? they've had a few good quarters, haven't day? >> they've had a few good quarters but one of the issues coming up is that they are going to be lapping a lot of

that. the question is the digital ad market, will it be more robust? so so much of their business is fueled by the streaming services selling through roku, and really using roku as a platform that they are based on. and we've had some big quarters with that but there might be a slowdown as well. >> got it. roku shares under pressure down 7%. julia, thank you. two minutes ago until the close take a look at where we are. the dad spent a good time of the day in the red but getting a boost into the clothes, what is helping out today? looks like the biggest contributor is bowing at about 50 point. salesforce, microsoft, american express, home depot also adding to the dallas rally. some of it is being left behind today, mcdonald's, unh, the defensive groups. it has been a big winner this week as well. look at the s&p 500 that is also positive just barely in these final moments of trade information technology, communication services,

consumer discretionary and staples are all positive. everybody else it looks negative on the flow. but four tenths of 1% adding to the gains for the week so now we are up almost 3% to close out the week for the nasdaq, s&p is up two and a half percent of the dow is up two and a half percent in the week. the dow concludes positive here at these levels and that will be another record high close for the dow. the biggest winner of the week is the nasdaq 100 aboard the 3%, you have places like costco after 14 earnings that beat on the top and bottom lines with membership numbers and grocery business there, jd.com is having a nearly 5% of day and then the magnificent seven, microsoft, amazon, they are all working today. meta is making a move higher as well and that is certainly helping the biggest story of the week. it has been the federal reserve. first they have the inflation number early in the week, and then the fed really leaned into that pretty much signaling that

they are done raising rates and talking about lowering rates. that has been already for the market. and a record close for the down, we are now sitting nicely with s&p going right off of the closed with seven in a row. it is over time now with john for us. >> well again it is a scorecard on wall street and a state way late into overtime. brennan is off today. coming up this hour, had a fixed income caused weeping moves and the bottom market this week. the ten -- below 4% after the fed decision. calling out the health care for 2024 wally's spot goes and the analysts lays out the six picks i need to be on your radar for healthy returns in the new year. we began of course with the market any push higher in the