first investors will digest the november housing starts and building reports, ll street will be looking for interest rate clues during the afternoon, and th after the bell, we will break down fedex's earngs. at sto haseen red hot. year, cost cuts, holay season, geopolitics. "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq marketsite in the heart of new york city's tis square, this is ft ney. red sea risk factor, bp the latest company to stop sailing through the shipping chann a from yemenf attas by militants could this have a lasting impact on energy and the supply chain we'll do a deep dive plus, bruised apple. pausing sales for watches over dispute over the option feature over the wearable devices. the impact coming up. an obesity bummer, results

of the pill did not match the effectiveness of shots from eli lilly and novo nordisk i'm coming to you live from studio b on the desk tonight first, we start off with the red sea attacks, bp the latest company in a growing list to halt shipments through the area. we're joined more on the escalating situation ali? >> bp is the latest company to suspend vessels traveling through the readd sea after a series of attacks after the yemen rebels houthi attacks on shipping lines in the region have significantly increased in recent days, with almost daily attacks the houthi say they firmly back the palestinian cause and they won't let up on their attacks

until medication and other essential goods can get into gaza they say they won't allow ships to reach israeli ports until that happens now, at the moment the u.s. seems reluctant to attack the houthis for fear of widening the war and provoking iran what they may be planning is to launch an expanded protection force to ensure vessels have safe passage. >> thank you, ali. wti, meantime, popping a percent and a half they're in a key area for transporting the world's energy supply p pippa stevens has more on the threat. >> reporter: oil rising as tensions built in the red sea, given it's a vital energy artery about 12% of cru passed through the suez canal during the first half of the year, cording to the energy information administration at 9.2 million barrels per day, that's about 9% of daily global

demand additionally, about 8% of worldwide lng or had.1 billion cubic feet per day pass through the waterway flows have shifted since russia's invasion of ukraine crew traveling north through the canal is up 60% relative to 2020, in part because europe is importing more oil from the middle east. meantime, russian oil is now 74% of southbound crude traffic in the canal. that's compared to just 30% two years ago, as it sends more crude to india and china melissa? >> thank you, pippa stevens. isust off 1.5%d the top, oil why such a shrug, tim? you would think that this sort of headline would be scary unless we've got so much supply swishing around. >> we've heard about opec and opec+, saudi could make up a disruption quickly and i think they've been under pressure to eat a lot of the extra supply cuts that are out theralready.

you can make an argument every time you have a supply disruption it's not a reason to buy oil, it's a one day, two day,ne week trade. brent is at two year lows and i ink there's probably decent support. it's trading on economic weakness there's no question about it if you look at oil, energy equities, i think they're interesting. i ink you're trading at two to three standard deviations, cheap to the market. i understand energy is always cheap, it's always a low pe. but relative to the market it's an attractive time when i think these companies have significant operational leverage and they break even on their divs, european break even at 40 bucks and they're paying big divs i kind of like this. >> isn't it interesting you said crude is trading at two-year lows there are very few assets that you can say that and that has been my take two months ago when it was trading above $90 or whatever,

was it trading on perceived stngth it was trading on some odd economic strength, on supply demand dynamics. i wonder what catches up to it and i look at the way the shanghai composite is trading, chinese stocks and the data. it's interesting that we've spent a lot of time over the last couple of weeks talking about what the rate cut, pull forward means for risk assets. i'm saying to myself, i look at what fed chair powell did last week and i think he's looking out beyond normalizing, i think he's worriedbout other things. >> you're in the conspiracy camp >> what's the conspiracy >> not a conspiracy, but that there's something actually worse on the horizon and that's why the fed is pivoting now. >> that was my take immediately after the fed presser on monday. >> would you agree with that >> no, sorry we tend to disagree. >> boom. >> but i mean, i think the fed is pausing because we've got

inflation under control, we're starting to see things kind of normalize, supply chain disruptions seem to be normalized so i don't know if i see any sort of black cloud out there. >> normalized with a 1.4% gdp expected for next year, below the ten-year average >> which would be great. but that would be probably good for equities, wouldn't it? >> that would be great for equities >> it seems optimistic so if crude is telling us something, if china is telling us something, the idea of coming off of these aberration prints we've seen in gdp over the last couple of quarters, we could swing to the other side or negative quickly. >> i think crude is telling us that we're in a balance, supply/demand balance. a lot of what we've seen over the last few years is energy companies in the u.s., at least, getting supply discipline, moderating the band of where oil trades so maybe it's not a bad thing. maybe it's just oil is actually less volatile than it's been in the past i think that's the positive take on this.

>> i agree with that, actually i think what you're seeing is there's all these headlines coming out of that area of the world right now, realistically with where oil prices are, there was a jump, they're still about 7% lower than when the conflicts started. it's really what they're looking at for next year there's likely going to be over-supply. i believe it was yesterday russia said they were going to increase utput, but even with that, that's not affecting this. it's all supply and demand for next year. >> are we being too complacent they're going to try to form a red sea task force to enforce security in the area there are a lot of shipping companies halting shipments through this area. a lot of other things besides oil travel through this area are we, you know what, this is no big deal? >> speaking to maybe broader inflationary supply disruptions, supply chain, we've gone through that over the last few years and ba to what it means for oil, i think there are

structural reasons to own oil. i think geopolitics are a hedge for your portfolio and oil is definitely that. and, again, the operational improvements in these companies is something i think is one of the most powerful things we're having this conversation in the context of what does it mean for the market. dan is bringing up decent points we've heard for two days, since friday afternoon, a chorus of fed officials trying to backtrack off of powell, to the sense is, first of all, is powell trying to -- and i feel like if guy was here, no one hates this expression probably more than guy, buthread the needle, is the fed threading the needle in terms of powell trying to avoid recession, yet kill inflation? think it's impossible and it's clear that in the last four or five days a lot of people, including ex n york fed bill dudley, who sayst would be a huge mistake for the fed to get off the inflation fight. i'm not sure the fed is. maybe we've misinterpreted

mr. powell the point is if the fed is not as aggressive in terms of easing next year as the market is pricing in, what does it mean equities >> we have austan goolsbee this morning and mester >> williams on friday. >> everybody is trying to walk this back. what's the purpose of that the mistake that he was way too dovish on the spectrum >> i think that obviously maybe certain parts of the market have gotten ahead of themselves and what's priced in right now is i think like 140 basis points of cuts next year, which is probably not achievable. i do think that the reason to own eqties is not because of what the feds going to do next year the reason to own equities is because of what the fed has already done think about we'rin aormal market environment now. we have real rates that are at kind of reasonable levels.

we've got fiveercentage points of latitude to ease our way out of the next recession. kind of don't care as much how many times the fed cuts interest rates, and i know that sounds like hesy because we're all watching the fed with baited breath. >> it sort of is because we've seen such a huge move after this pivot, this major pivot that powell gave to us. >> yeah, you're right. >> he could have been wearing a santa claus hat that day >> but there was already a strong rally before that so i think that maybe he just threw a little gas on the ames, but my sense is, you know, we're not necessarily betting on a super accommodative fed next year. i think you can still own equities even if the economy is continuing to grind higher, even if we get a little bit of a resurgence in inflation. i think goodinflation would actually be a positive for the s&p. >> there's been three instances

where the fed has cut interest rates since 1997 never has it been a casual effect so when they have cut, ty have cut aggressively. >> because of something going wrong, yes, yes, yes we should never want the fed to cut interest rates. >> right but they just told us there's a good chance of it. they just to us fed funds is pricing it in, they're pricing 140 basis points of cuts. >> that's back to at i'm talking about. >> so what i'm saying is, like, it would be very different this time that when they start to cut, they don't have to use a good part of that 5% or 5 1/4 they've been raising over the last two years or so if you're here and everything sounds great -- >> have at it. >> one could have at it. or you might take a step back and start to think a little bit critically, because as much as the recession was priced in this time last year where the market was trading, it's priced the

other waright now. you used the term complacency, i think we can see how things shape up in the new year before we get geekd up. >> maybe this time is a lot different. aren't a lot of things different this time? there are a lot of things that are different today than there have been historically if you think about the easing and tightening channels for credit, it hasn't been banks, it's been shadow lending if you think about the balance sheets, here at unprecedented levels of -- >> i think there are risks, but they're not necessarily in public equities. i'm just saying there's a lot that's different this cycle. look at the fed balance sheet. it's very different from all of the prior cycles. >> much bigger. >> much bigger. >> it sounds like you're thinki it's much different in a worse way. >> yeah. >> private credit is going to be a problem. >> obviously. >> so the transmission mechanisms are different. >> look at what kind of worked its way into it this time.

the fed was still involved in quantitative tightening and we had a regional banking crisis and ey pulled off. just think about -- >> we need to do a psa, old school rodney dangerfield, et cetera. but we're at a place where one of your -- i think your strong argument is that old economy stocks are poised for an eaings renaissance based upon productivityains, and that's part of the dynamic. we've had an earngs recession. rget the economy and your peers around the streetwhether th be strategist are saying we see -- in fa, the street has 10.5% earnings growth in024. is it coming from the old economy stocks because i own a few and it hasn't been a good run. >> i think it's coming from a little bit of everything it has been miserable to own old economy stocks this year those are the companies that can benefit from a lot of these new

tools, productivity enhancements, ai ai isn't just about semiconductors and software. it's also about old clunky companies becoming labor lighter and getting a little leaner and getting some margins so i think that this is the time to own old economy and we've already seen that broadening out of performance i think since the beginning of november the equal weighted s&p has outperformed the cap weighted s&p, not by a huge amount so i think next year you start to see more of that broadening trend. >> yep >> by the way, that was the worst definition of triple indy ever >> i'm sorry. >> old school, back to school. >> back to school. >> old school is a different movie, that's will ferrell also a great movie, by the way i think we need to have more reference to say that on the show as well back to school, rodney. >> back to the topic, i'm thinking about what you said

about what the fed does next year, doesn't matter. do you agree if we could look in a crystal ball and sayhe fed is not going to cut rates at all, not one single cut, would you be as long equities as you are now, or would you be as bullish as you are today? >> i think some of the run-up has already happened assuming they're going to be cutting rates and i think they're overshooting they're expecting six rate cuts next year which is in all likelihood not going to happen i don't think all of that will pull back. i think as much as the fed interest rates are going to matter, what's more important is companies' earnings. the earnings recession is coming to an end and we see an increase next year. that's far more important than what the fed is doing. >> i feel ke the markets do not want to hear what the fed officials are saying they're saying no cuts are imminent it's too early to be talking about this that tells me that it's really priced in. >> no recession is now

consensus. it was the opposite. and this is for an s&p that's up 15.5% since the turn of the markets on october 26th, it's for a market that on the other side -- and til big companies equal weighted has not had that great of a run it's up 3.5% since the cpi number in mid november that's nice, but semis have outperformed the&p, making 11% from the s&p from highs back two years ago. why aren't semis going to continue to go higher? there's a lot of reasons why they couldn't. >> let's get back to oil and bring in rebecca babin, the firm's equity trader and managing director. welcome to "fast money." thanks for being with us we're trying to figure out what oil's message is if you look at the price action, up 1.5%, not a whole lot. what do you think it's telling us

>> so i think oil is telling you two things first, it's telling you it's not going to rally on supply driven events a couple of reasons why. the first, we have a ton of spare capacity sitting on the sideline from saudi arabia and the uae. they're literally chomping at the bit to bring back more production so any supply event has a buffer to it because you have spare capacity the second thing i think the market is telling you is, again, you mentioned it, we're looking at 2024 and we're concerned that the market is going to end up being oversupplied and the reason the market is so worried about this isn't that demander is going to get cratered, we're looking at 1.5 million barrels a day. what we saw in 2023, the surprise of the crude market, was incredible production out of the united states, well above our estimates. we're estimating coming into this year that u.s. production is going to put out 700,000 barrels a day, we're at 1.1.

if we get another year where u.s. production vastly outperforms estimates, which estimates are looking for 500,000 barrels a day of growth out of the u.s. next year, but we get that incremental efficiency productivity like we saw this year, you get a market that's even more oversupplied. so i think it's more of a supply story going into 2024, there's a lot of fear that no matter what opec does, no matter how much they cut, there are non-opec producers that are going to fill that hole. so ultimately i think that's what the market is telling you as it relates to the suez canal, one important thing, the biggest increase of flows through the suez canal has been by russia. they're shipping barrels to india and china. it's very unlikely the houthis are going to target russian crude. the iran/russian relationship has been getting stronger and continues to be strong so although the headline number,

8% is at risk, it's much smaller. the task force in place, i think that gives a little bit of confidence you've got to question the ability of that to act i think all of those things, crude is looking at it and saying i don't chase supply driven rallies, i chase inventory draw-downs and exponential demand growth. >> so we saw a real surge in european natural gas prices on the back of this, and i'm wondering if you think that keeps up i'm thinking about this as a piece of the puzzle of the europe european central bank, what it needs to do and how it's trying to fig inflation. >> that's a great point. they don't have a lot of alternatives for nat gas flows that is where you willee probably continued impact if this isn't resolved, and if we have to reroute the extra two and a half weeks around the cape of good hope so that is a real impact e other place the market is

assigning re risk is in diesel and products, again to europe. we saw spreads up 8% today and they're going to hold because europe can't just looko russia to backfill those pructs it's not like crude oil where it's as fungible and easy to access so you probably will see longer lasting impacts in gas and in products where there isn't that massive spare capacity or readily available alternatives >> rebecca, thanks for joining us >> thank you >> so now knowg and understanding that, the real risk ito the european energy markets, i'm wondering if that changes your outlook for europe at all. >> again, i don't know how lon this risk lives on you had a very weak number in rmany, their state of the economy, after four really solid months, we've seen the dax at all-time highs it gets back to relative to itself, it's kind of attractive here on do i think europe is running away no, i think their economy is

going to be weaker than ours in the coming 12 months remember what europe had to endure with russia and what was going on in terms of gas prices and the inflationary effect. >> do you like energy? >> i love energy i think energy is a long-term core holding i look at companies like the majors, you're getting a great dividend yield, inflation protection, just in case we're not out of the woods on inflation. i feel like it's basically tips on steroids. it's got everything that you want in your portfolio as a bal ballast and the companies have gotten religion around supply discipline and capital return and allocation they're no longer paid on production targets i think these are all positive themes for the energy sector and it's very underowned at this point in the year because it's done pretty poorly all year. so i think there's an upside just based on ownership as well. >> coming up, it looks like apple will have some time on

their hands. the tech giant halting sales of some smart watches with just one week left before christmas the patent dispute keeping the gear out of shoppers' hands. more on that ahead first, u.s. steel surging after being brought up by a japanese rival. the price tag and what it will mean for the industrial pace next don't go anywhere. "fast money" is ba in two. i think i'm ready for this. heck ya! with e*trade you're ready for anything. marriage. kids. college. kids moving back in after college. ♪ finally we can eat. ♪ you know you make me wanna...♪ and then we looked around and said, wait a minute, this isn't even our stroller! (laughing) you live with your parents, but you own a house in the metaverse? mhm. cool...i don't get it. here's to getting financially ready for anything! and here's to being single and ready to mingle. who's ready to cha-cha?! ♪ yeah, yeah ♪

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welcome back to "fast money. shares of u.s. steel topping the tape today the stock surging over 26% after agreeing to be acquired by nippon steel, valuing u.s. steel at $14.9 billion that's a nearly 40% premium to friday's close, almost double the rejected offer this summer it gives the steel space specifically a boost, hitting its hiest level since may 2011 what ioil telling us what does this deal tell us in terms of demand for steel? >> i don't think we should believe this is a time for a feeding frenzy in the space.

those that have gotten bigger have gotten bigger there are cores in those folks that have high quality steel and operate in different segments. i think it is important to say that miners around the world, at least some of the folks that actually mine for the stuff you use to make steel, i think, are very interesting and i think someone like cliffs, the word is that they're not going to be on the oacquisition trail. the fact that you saw some of the biggest steel companies in the world rallying on this, there is some sense that assets are in play and those that are bigger are going to get bigger and it doesn't matter. they paid more than a 50% premium to the historic ebitda multiple and i think this deal will go through. i don't think there's any strategic complications. >> the steelworkers? >> i'll let them figure that out. brian sullivan is going to do something with the head of the

union. i think if you think about the geopolitics and the dynamics, nippon steel is kind of a friend and they have a footprint that they could be in the u.s., and it means there might be more steel in the u.s. >> the u.s. steelworkers have said they don't believe nippon steel because they've made they will honor all commitments, cluding the labor commitments. workers don't believe it and are against it, which i thought was interesting wrinkle because they liked the cliffs deal. >> it's expected to go through late next year, so we have some time i think steel looks interesting because when you think at between e chips act, the ira act and infrastructure act, $2 trillion of spending, i think it's really underappreciated right now and they're lookg at things like that, but so that steel is needed for evs,hen you look at the clean energy vehicles in the future, that's where things are going and that's what we're trying to get a piece of. >> i would take issue with the

underappreciated issue of the acts, because i think they're embedded in a lot industrials and a lot of areas of the mark so that goes back to what help buoy the market this year, i think optism about some of that stuff just look at some of the stuff, last few months.s had over the i think that's largely predicated on the ira. when you think about all the stuff we talk about, supply chain disruptions and all the macro issues, it lends itself to those legislative acts that are really a tailwind for a lot of u.s. industrial companies. so i think they're in the market i think you're totally right to bring them up. >> i think it's industrials, you're totally right about that. but i don't necessarily think it's in materials and energy and i still think those are two sectors that are very hard to hold because of their kind of emissions risk and european regulations around owning big emitters so i think industrials is pricing in all of the stimulus

and then some, which means maybe don't buy industrials. but steel, metals, all of the metals that go into ev, i don't think those companies are really pricing in the demand and the amount of money that's earmarked to be spent on those types of projects. >> it sounds like she's disagreeing with you again i'm not sure. >> you know what's interesting, maybe the staff can put up the e and just do that over, let's say, the last 15 years or so ery time we have a recession, this thing loses 75% of its value. so if you want to chase them right here, have at it >> we mentioned this before, united steelworkers president last call at 7:00 p.m. eastern on cnbc. a lot re "fast money" to come. here is what's coming up next. time is money, and apple is giving up both this holiday season the reason behind the sales stoppage next. and while we're trotting out

the cliches, talk is cheap our next guest says even though the fed may have changed its tune, they're not out of the woods just yet the real read on where rates are headed next. you're watching "fast money," live from the fast marketsite in times sqre aracrit tethis

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9 and ultra 2 in october what could this mean for apple's revenue? i like how they don't stop selling this thing until thursday you've got plenty of time to get one if you want one. what do you think of this? >> i can't remember the last time we were talking about watches as being a driver for apple. i know that sounds like, sorry, but we had a conversation late last week about china and the increased pressure from the state-owned enterprises. those are the conversations that make sense apple, the stock, in terms of how it has performed, it's obviously very close to all-time highs. i will say it's not making relative highs to the s&p. if i was looking at the group, meta, amazon, google, those are charts that are breaking out, not apple. >> courtney, what do you think >> they need to get more into services i don't think the watch is going to make or break it. they are one of the biggest producers. 60% of smart watches come from

apple. they're waiting until the 21st they didn't say we're doing this today. they said if you are doing christmas shopping, you have until thursday i think they're doing it on purpose. the biden administration has until the 25th to overturn this. i wonder if they are going to pause sales, going into an election year,re they trng to make sure some of this goes through and they're trying to put their foot down? wearables are important for them you think about their strategy going forward, vision pro, we laughed it off, there's a lot of folks that are excited about the strategy when you talk about services, services is a big part of strat y how many years have we talked about these patent disputes and they really don't ma a dent ever but it is important to think about a little bit i guess i'm more in tim's camp, the headline last week about further banning apple products, that's a much bigger issue. coming up, is the rate cut

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welcome back to "fast money. stocks kicking off the week in the green, trying to extend their seven-day winning streak the s&p and nasdaq up a 1/2 a percent. shares of vf corp. dropping, the apparel company saying they suffered a cybersecurity breach and they expect it to have a material impact on their rush, down more than 30% this year a couple of faang names hitting 52 week highs. investors may want to temper their enthusiasm over rate cuts. austan goolsbee telling cnbc he's confused about the market's

reaction >> the market expectation of the number of rate cuts is greater than what the projecon is. so whether that's iced in or not iced in, that is a difference >> joini us with some reaction, chief economist, great to have you with us. it's not just goolsbee, every single fed official who has come out since the fed meeting last week has tried to bapedal and the markets do not want to listen what do you think going on here >> i think that they are quite worried that financial conditions, if they ease too muchit may complicate the job of getting inflation back to 2%. last week we got cpi, their goal is to get it down to 2%. 4%s not 2%, and i think we have quite a road to go. i think they're telling us let's take a break and figure out if thiss going to take a longer time, it will certainly come

with more fed hawkishness than what the market is interpreting. >> do you think that the -- well, do you think the markets are mistaken or do you think the fed made an error in letting the markets think that because it did seem that everody walked away with that conclusion, that a pivot is under way and that will be cuts next year? >> when we look at the dual mandate of inflation has to get to 2% and we have to be at full employment, an honest assessment is they were right in the sense we have to recognize inflation has come down faster i think they said the data is better than we expected and i think we were surprised that markets interpreted that as dovish so i think it's both of th having no other choice to recogne that things are getting better, but the market over-interpreting what hwas saying all of these mbers coming out saying, this was the wrong interpretation, that should make us investors say, hold on, maybe this was not the right interpretation. >> are you concerned that the

negative impact on the economy is now greater, in other wor, that the soft landing scenario is actually moreeopardized because of what the fed has done and because of the resurgence in risk assets that will be under way because this pivot, as opposed to if we just left rates higher for longer and stuck by that and waited? >> i think easing the financial conditions could switch us back to no landing because now we will have a strong housing rket, you saw the home builder sentiment rebound. the next employmt report could be decent. u could see consumer spending be decent. that could suggest the economy is getting a lift, which is complicating their mission to get inflation back from 4% to 2%. >> the lostast time the yield ws at 3% was kind of august, the s&p 500 has rallied 10% since then the move from 4% to 5% was pretty quick and it didn't get embedded into the economy so

much so if you're buying stocks here at 52-week highs, very near all-time highs, where do you expect the ten-year yield to be to continue that rally >> i think an important starting point is exactly where did we come from and where are we going? we came from a point with supply chains were getting straightened out after covid. that has been the low-hanging fruit for inflation to come down to co-inflation, around 4% thlast mile is going to be harder because we see supply chain risk appearing again, that might mean the easy pa of getting down with inflation was ally behind us, but ahead of us is not only do we have the red sea flare-up and everything that's potentially putting upward pressure on inflation, but easing financial conditions that could complicate the job of getting inflation from 4% down to 2%. i think the pendulum has swung too much in the dovish direction and the fed will have to go back exactly as we're seeing today to

be more hawkish. >> i agree do you think there's any wgle room around 2% like, could they change the number, change the target? because it's kind of arbitrary, and 2% is actually pretty low relative to history. >> that's true i think it was said very well, we may change the target, but only once we're back at 2% >> wait until we get there >> don't change the goalst in the middle of the game to maiain our credibility, we've been told by congress it should be 2%, gettg inflation back to 2% is our goal, then we can have that conversation so io think at this point literally all of the members without exception have said we've got to get down to 2% to make sure that marketson't come out with expectation that the flation target is going to change if they tomorrow came out and said we're changing the inflation target to 4%, what would long rates do? they might jump with 200 basis points because now people want to say, i want to be compensated

for the risk that the erosion of my portfolio is now 4% i think changing the target and moving the goalpost, i think they are signaling that's not going to happen. >> i want to get to the other side of her question, which was the impact of what the markets are going to do to the economy if we're at 5% on the ten-year, i'm just curious on your view for the economy for '24. if conditions are seemingly tighter, if the market hadn't run ahead of the fed, do you want to see rates higher because you think that's in the best interest long term >> i think we need higher rates for longer in other words, wage inflaon is still averaging out earnings, it's still 4%. so the service sector and cpi is still que elevated if we've got to get the service sector down, that means wage inflation needs to come down that's an important debate about can we get inflation back to 2% without weakness in the labor

market it's been impressive how strong the labor market has been. i think as we go through the next several quarters, and this is the fed's consensus forecast, we will see the labor market weaken to your question, we will therefore see a slowdown in earnings and i think that earnings expectations that you spoke about earlier, they are too optimistic relative to the view that we're simply not done fighting inflation, and therefore we do need rates higher for longer. >> thank you coming up, aelping of thdetails and obesity drugs, all plus, a 0 billion merg dead in t water thanks to regulatory holdups over asse what it mighmean for fure deal makg in the tech ace. mo "fastoney" two

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we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business. welcome back to "fast money. adobe calling off its $20 billion acquisition of figma cnbc was told last wednesday they expected the deal to go through. adobe will pay a $1 billion breakup fee and the two companies say they will continue trying to partner with one another in the future. adobe shares up on the news. this tells you that getting a deal done in the tech space is going to be difficult. >> i think what you also want to look at is they had a billion

dollar breakup fee there's been talk about ai and a lot of companies have the pixie dust, the thought that they can benefit from ai. they're implementing it into things their customers can benefit from that is worth more than a billiodollar breakup fee. >> some of the guidance investors were disappoind in, we didn't think it was a big deal, but the stock was down 5% or 6%. i think what they're sayg is we're going to take half of the expected purchase price, a they have great balance sheet and cash flow generation it's fine, it's just up a lot and not a cheap stock. coming up after this bak, shares of structure therapeutics having their worst day on record after disappointing da otan their latest drug trial. we'll bring you the latest on that more "fast money" in two

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welcome back t"fast money. a healthy dose of headlines coming out of the obesity drug space, structure therapeutics dropping 40% after data on the treatment fell short of what eli lilly saw for its pill in development.

liy and novo nordisk closed in the green, finding a study that found anti-ilammatory benefits from their injectables. >> there's a structure saying the 90-person trial, there were two groups, people with type 2 tie diabetes and those with obesity. what we saw was that people in that group lost around 3% of body weight and blood sugar dropped 1% after 12 weeks. both of those were lower than what analysts were looking for and lower than the numbers from eli lilly's experimental pill. the obesity group, people lost 5% after eight weeks, and it was safe and well tolerated. only one person dropped out because of side effects. there's also another study like you mentioned, suggesting that

glp1s can reduce inflammation. it's importantto know this was a mouse study, so it's too soon to know what's going on here we'll need more human data to validate results >> what i thought was interesting was that it was done by one of the researchers who discovered the glp1 compound, so it seems like, wow, he's the one who discovered it, he's finding new uses the implications of finding anti-inflammatory applications is use for this drug in chronic pain and other areas >> yeah, and we've already seen that these companies are trying to look at the effects of glp1s in oth conditions. we already have a trial under y from novo looking at the drug in alzheimer's disease, and the idea there is because there might be some role with inflammation, like you saw with the heart disease study earlier this year.

we saw an effect on the heart, even before people lost weight, something else is happening. at's where the inflammation might come into play >> angelica, thanks. of course, before people were the preconditions for heart nd disease goes away. but this is actually sayinit is the drug itlf it is the pathways from the brain that are making this go away, which that's almost a game-changer here. >> that's extraordinary, and wee spent so much time talking about where glp1s have been a wrecking ball for peripheral industries jeffries had an interesting report a couple days ago basically saying we think the costs of essentially people -- the trillion dollar cost to the american public is too much and we just don't think -- they don't question the top line and the addressable market they question the adoption and they question at least the ability for people at some

point, and ultimately it gets back to medtech and these are companies that have been destroyed by this. >> another theme this year was the labor gains we saw all over the place in the u.s think about the impact, if labor starts getting that, they're going to want these drugs, these drugs in particular. when you talk about the uptick think there's a lot of competing trends in place right now, especially positive for these guys. >> up next, final trades

time for the final trade >> okay, i love the equal weighted s&p 500 it started to work, but there's so much more to go valuations are attractive, nobody owns these stocks it's all about the magnificent seven. own the equal weighted s&p >> it's great having her here and joust with dan, which has been fun

we talked about gold, but i like gfi. >> small cap value, small caps took a turn last week, 5% in a day. take a look. >> seller, buy guide, and happy rthday we miss >> reporter: my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm he to level e playin fid for all vestor theris alw-- i promise to help you find mad money starts now hey, i am kramer welcome to mad money, welcom to cramerica i'm just trying to make you little money my job is not just to entertai you, but to teach somethg. maybe all stocks are too cheap versus what they're worth? that's my reaction to furiou bidding fo