tv Street Signs CNBC December 19, 2023 4:00am-5:00am EST
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that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm andrea canning. thank you for watching. ♪ good morning lcome to "street signs." i'm joumna bercetche and these are your headlines european equities tick gher while the nikkei out performed in asia as bank of japan governor says it is diicult to give a firm picture on the ending of the ultra loose monetary policy. maersk moves around the horn
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of africa. our u.s. colleagues will speak to vincent clerc at 5:00 p.m. cet. the ecb hikes capital demands saying they did not make provisions for delinquencies we will hear from board chair andrea enria at 11:30 cet. and apple finds a fix for the $70 billion watch business over the dispute with the firm halting u.s. sales just before christmas. good morning welcome to "street signs." let's to get to on the show.
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bank of japan is in focus over the last couple hours. i want to bring you lines on the german finance agency. this is the part of the treasury that sets the bond schedule for 2024 the german government intends t issue securities of 440 billion euro in 2024 plans that a total of 247.5 million euro raised on capital markets and options of federal securities these are typical bund curve that you are looking at right now which is what will be raised next year as part of the 440 billion total. 17 billion euro will be raised via green federal securities these are what are called green bonds where the proceeds are intended to be used for anything financing green projects then a further 165 billion euro issued on the money market
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this has been a big focus for investors as you think about the issuance profile for the eurozone countries we talk about fiscal consolidation and the german government agreed on the budget for 2024 the bid entailed cutting subsidies in certain sectors today, we are getting the issuance announcement for 2024 as how it is split you see the stoxx 600 on the heat map which is leaning positive we are up six basis points we had a mildly positive session in the u.s the dow flat, but leaning toward the green. we are beginning to see some of the central bankers dial back rate cut expectations. cnbc spoke to austan goolsbe he is struggling to understand
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the market reaction to the fed statement last week and the rate cuts built into the market despite the tone from the central bankers, it hasn't stopped the market in terms of equity performance this is the stoxx 600 today. let's switch to the boards most of them are leaning in the red. the stoxx 600 is leaning toward the green. dax in germany is up .20%. the market there is dill reviewing the weaker data. pmi's sentiment indicators were surprising to the downside one stock we are watching in the dax is jumping once more on reports that abu dhabi is looking to acquire cac 40 is down .20%. we are seeing a pullback in the cyclical names ftse 100 is up marginally
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through 7,600. a lot of focus on commodities today. again, we speak about central bankers pushing back of rate cuts we heard from the bank of england governor who was saying they need to see wage kbrgrowth t bank the england did not hike. in terms of sectors, this is where the leadership is today. we have travel and leisure is up .80%. real estate, the rate sensitive sector, performing well and on the flip side, oil and gas is down a bit as the market has had time to investigate and think about what the rerouting of ships around the red sea means for tankers and container
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ships. many analysts say it extends the journey time, it will not have a meaningful impact on the spot price of oil this is why oil stocks are coming off this morning. autos are down .40%. as we head into the u.s. session, all three majors are opening up in positive territory. you see s&p and dow and nasdaq is around the flat line. i want to point out that the magnificent seven, the receive especiall seven stocks we talked about all year, closed at an all-time high bank of japan governor says it is difficult to give a firm picture of the ending of the ultra loose monetary policy as leaving rates unchanged. that makes it the only central bank on the planet with rates still in negative territory. it is good to specify it is the only central bank with negative
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interest rates jp, it doesn't sound like they are going to change that before spring we heard a lot of comments in the press conference that the governor thinks spring is a good time to asscertain it is a good time to move away from negative rates. >> reporter: good morning, joumanna this was a decision that market watchers were waiting for here in asia. markets were hoping for indicat indicators or a hint of loosening the ultra loose policy they are the only central bank with negative rates. the bank of japan keeping the reference rate at negative 0.1%. the upper end reference limit for ten-year jgb at 10%.
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my apologies 1% no real reminders where they did highlight. there is a lot of economic uncertainty for them to actually exit the accommodative monetary policy where the bank of japan in tokyo has done for last couple years we saw how it impacted markets with the jgb bond yields trending lower the decision to keep the policy loose. the yen is finding room to weaken one of the key things that weighs on the bank of japan's governor is consumption is reco recovering, but it is showing a sign of weakness they want to make sure the economic recovery in japan which sees wages improve and healthy price growth is not uneven they are seeing prices uneven for them to exit the ultra loose
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monetary policy for the economic recovery we mentioned how it impacted stocks today and the weaker yen is helping the nikkei. keep an eye for the topix. the bank of japan has been asking for the negative rate environment in japan and that means the topix is a laggard in tokyo today. the question is when they exit negative exit rates. good morning back to you. >> jp, it takes me back to the eurozone negative interest rates for years on end of course, the last year has been a great year for european banking stocks maybe one day that will happen for japanese banks speaking of the ecb, the ecb released an update on the european banking system.
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i want to bring you comments from the head of the supervision of the part of the ecb there is still significant uncertainty and downside risk for eurozone banks the rest of the comments are in german i can't bring those to you he is talking about uncertainty and downside risk for the eurozone banks we will speak to him 11:30 ce, this one of the major take aways from earlier is the ecb raised capital demand because of the bad loan exposure and expectations that we will start to see credit deterioration as of next year coming up now, the chief fx strategist joins me. thank you. i'm not going to a about the ecb. i'm going to ask about the bank of japan it feels like in many companies, this is a difficult meeting.
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i know in the run-up expectations were dialed back. it fls disappointing for anyone expecting something more hawkish from the bank of japan today. >> absolutely. i think we have seen this the last nine months since governor eudea started his term every meeting expectations have been high. you see that in prices in options market there will be a turn in the monetary policy of the bank of japan. i think this week's was more highlighted or underscored because of what happened with the fed last week. the understanding that markets saw it as a pivot in the fed monetary policy and that the bank of japan might take the opportunity to surprise markets in december, like it did last year, and start to unwind its negative interest rates fast
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anner than had been anticipated before ulti ultimately, that has not happened >> i tend to tfollow what centra bankers say closely. i believe the bank of japan governor is the challenging to read than the rest he injects surprise into the statements and tends to dial them back. i wonder if you are an fx trader, what are you doing with the currency are people honing in as april being the time to liftoff the interest rates >> i think this is fully in the price now. the expectation had been going into the meeting with a surprise and there could be an expectation that either the fed will start the cutting process now, then this offers an opportunity for the bank of japan to really normalize rates
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and bring the rates back up to zero and really, you have seen inflation in japan reach the 2% target for a while now if that is the case, if that's what they're going toward, it is time to wind down this eight-year experiment. how you train that going forward is using the forecast in january and forecast in april. the comments between the meetings by the governor, i think are there so fire a shot ac across the bow that we are thinking about this and this is coming in the next quarter or two. don't push dollar/yen back to 150. in the statements, they want to see inflation for 2024 and 2025. those expectations need to be anchored around 2% now, if they have room in terms
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of the currency at 140, they can stretch that process out to be confident that the inflation expectations are grounded and they can start the process of normalizing rates. as we have seen the governor is in no rush and he will signal this well in advance and it will be a very orderly process. >> let me ask you this, to what extent do you think the yen has been heading the last couple months is a reflection of the bank of japan expectations versus external factors, we knon is a exporter of oil we know they have priced in rate cuts from the fed. the rate difference between the u.s. dollar rates and the japanese rates has started to come in. that is also a benefit for the
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currency to what extent, do you think, those two factors are driving the performance of the currency here >> absolutely. i think those are the more important factors in dollar/yen compared to what we are hearing out of the bank of japan which is a normalization from monetary policy from the bank of japan. compared to 2022, when we saw oil at $130, that was impacting the current account. more recently, it is very much the rate differential with the japanese ten-year rates and the u.s. ten-year rates. we have seen that start to narrow on the expectation of the fed rate cuts and we see the appreciation in the yen. i think going forward, that will be the main story. i think what the bank of japan
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has taccidly subscribed to is a softer landing that will takeoff on the yen and the global economy is not going into a recession which could push dollar/yen down to 130 there is more room to keep the bank of japan policy in place and make sure the economy is supported and the inflation will reach the 2% target. they are trying to walk that narrow path and it seems for now the risks are balanced and they will keep that going until the january forecast or likely the april forecast round >> you know, when they changed the yield curve control upper limit to ten-year jgb they said
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it is important for the bond yee yields around the world. that gives cover for others to stat repricing higher. we have seen global fixed income markets rally with the rally in the u.s. treasuries, but jgps were dragged along as well jgbs were susceptible to the global markets than the reverse. >> that is fair to say at these levels to your earlier question, we are talking about a ten-basis move in the policy rates. then, perhaps, if everything goes to plan, 25 basis points hike in the first half of 2024 and then another in the last half that is 60-basis point move in the policy rate for the bank of japan. that is a lot for the bank of
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japan, but for global central banks, that is not a lot in terms of currency, it won't impact much. on the ten-year yield, we are talking about 1 %. the bank of japan budget expects ten-year jgb at 1.5% they he are active as much as the target is at zero and the loose ceiling at 1%, it will go toward 1.5%, you will see the banks step in to keep that rate at about 1.5%. at that rate, you will see flows start to change. it will affect outflows. i think it is important to remember here it is not only outflows into the dollar, but you are seeing it in the euro and aussie dollar and sterling
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it impacts these on the margins, but not at 1% or 1.5% with the fed at 5.5% on the policy rate and 4% on the ten-year yield it is not going to be a 180-degree turn like a reversal of the flows yet once the numbers get higher or lower on the u.s. side, that is more than an issue >> thank you so much for joining me to. the chief fx strategist from esg. i'll take you to corporate news starting with the stocky i kno well ubs. activist investors cevian financial has taken a 1.2 billion euro position in ubs representing a 1.3% stake in the swiss lender the cevian co-founder can double
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the valuation in the next three-to-five years. it can average the european bank it has been a major focus for the ceo of the last couple years, even before the integration of credit suisse adnoc is looking to raise covestro bid with the shares per offer will make the chemicals maker an 11.3 billion euro the stock is up 2.5% on that news and speculation this deal may be going ahead. elsewhere, bayer's monsanto is ordered to pay $857 million after the claims of the chemicals leaked from light
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fixtures and made students sick. the company will move to have the verdict overturned or reduced. just another legal headache for bayer. this is an issue throughout the course of the year we spoken about it, julianna and myself, throughout "street s signs" on what to do to turn the ship around as it faces the mounting legal problems on the back of the acquisition of monsanto. and casino is in talks to sell 315 stores as it tries to stave off bankruptcy in a deal of 1.3 million euro. the stores represented total sales of $3.5 billion last year. the deal would make casino with the market brand with the stock down 9%. it is a penny stock right now, casino, down 96% in the last two years.
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all of the value wiped out. coming up on the show, maersk reroutes ships around africa as it launches a task force to help out in the red sea. we will have the latest coming up next. it■s beginning to look alot liksavings! endjets holiday sale is on now! give the gift of convenience the blendjet 2 portable blender is perfect for everyone on your list. even that picky relative who hates everything. and dont forget the accessors! thre all on sale dont wait! our most popular colors andatterns will sell t! and take aantage of ourto blm holidasale now. my name is ashley cortez and i'm the founder of the stay beautiful foundation when i started in 2016 i would go to the post office and literally fill out eachpers and now with shipstation we are shipping 500 beauty boxes a month
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>>welcome back to "street a story we're watching closely maersk will reroute ships due to the travel through the red sea the shipping giant paused all vessels last week as attacks from houthi rebels intensified bp halted shipmentfrom the red sea. they are the first to st the tankers from traveling through the route which accounts for 12% of international strtrade. it is estimated that 30% of traffic passes through the straits. in response to the rebel attacks, the u.s. launched a
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maritime force to defend the critical shipping route. u.s. defse secretary lloyd austin said the action from the rebels threatens t flow of commerce and violates international law. committed.d the u.s. is >> we are working to ensure the conflict doesn't escalate beyond gaza as we drive to stabilize the region, iran is continuing to support terrorists and militias. attacks by the iranian proes threaten theegion's citizens and risk a broader conflict. of course, the united states does not seek war and we urgently call on iran to dees deesc deescalate >> our u.s. colleagues will speak to the maersk ceo vincent
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clerc later today at 5:00 p.m. cet. coming up on "street signs," the ecb raises capital requirements on 20 banks we will bring you the details coming up next shopify helps you sell at every stage of your business. like that ready to launch stage. that open for business stage. that sell it everywhere until you sell out stage. that count it up, ship it out stage. and that "wait, did we just hit a million orders?" stage. whatever the stage,usinesses that
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around africa as the u.s. colleagues speak to the ceo. and the ecb hikes capital demands. we hear from the chair andrea enria at 7:30 cet. and apple raises to find a fix for the watch business amid an ip dispute with the tech firm halting u.s. sales days before christmas. the welcome back to the show markets are edging toward the final trading day of the year and many of the milestones with central bank meeting and macro he de decisions have been taken. most the indices are trading on the flat line, but leaning to
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positive out performing index is the dax in germany the chemical stock at the top of the dax with the speculation that abu dhabi may increase the offer to acquire the company there is not a lot of movement with the indices we are coming off the record highs from last week. in terms of the fx, we are focusing on the bank of japan and the yen. the bank of japan kept the ultra loose policy levels. we will assess wage growth and if there are enough pressures to move away from the ultra loose policy we are seeing weakness in the yen against the u.s. dollar. shy of 145 at this point the euro trading firmer against the usd. .20% sitting below 110.
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the pound is sitting below 127 .40% firmer against the u.s. dollar u.s. dollar continues the track record of dleclining over the last couple weeks. switching to switzland this was t revw that many in switzerland were anticipating. the swiss banking regulator, finma said they reached the limit during the collapse of credit suisse with the risk management of the lender it called for stricter requirements with capitals as well as the power to hd staff more accountable a bit of context here. this morning, finma released what happened around the credit suis crisis over the weekend in march which led to ubs acquiring its rival. finma saying they lacked the regulatory teeth they neededt the time and also the ability to
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hold risk mappnagers more accountable. thiss come oing out ofhe finma review and as we spoke about at the top of the show,bs is doing well they increased their stake in ubs and the stock value could double the next couple years halves for credit suisse the ecb raised capital requirements for 20 banks judging they did not have enough cash set aside f unpailoans. the move is pa of the push to ensu the banks are prepared for the rise in loan delinquencies amid the higher rate environment or non-performing assets. we will hear from board chair andrea enria don't miss the interview at 11:30 cet. e bank of france governor
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galhau said the central bank will soon cut interest rates with the inflation set to fall to 2% by the endf 2025 rate cuts should take place next year and the e will not raise further. notable because he is one of the dovish members of the ecb. french finance minister le m maire is confident. >> we have been successful with the u.s. and europe to get out of the inflation crisis in less than two years we have a soft landing in the u.s. and in europe that's good news everybody was explaining one or two years ago where it will be a mess and it will be a nightmare. it will be a crash for all western economies. it has not been the case we took the right decisions. the ecb took the right decisions
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and the fed took the right decisions. we have had very coordinated approach among all european countries. we are exiting the inflation crisis now it is time to invest and to be successful on artificial intelligence and fight against climate change and defense cause there is a need to invest in defense. >> do you think frce can avoid a hard landing or recession with increasing geopolitical headwinds? >> there won't be any hard landing in france. we stillave growth we are creating jobs we are on the right track. we are exiting the crisis. the additional point where we have concerns are on any escalation on the middle east conflict, of course. that's why we clearly need to avoid any escalation in the middle east conflict because the impact on growth and jobs
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creation and the impact on the global wealth everywhere in the world would be, i think, detrimen detrimental? >> what about the winter with the war in ukraine >> there is no concern for the next winter. i think the lesson we need to draw from the conflict in ukraine is, once again, more independence as far as finances are concerned, we want to build on two pillars which are the nuclear energy we believe on the need to have more electricity produced by nuclear plants and renewable energies we are bidding on these two pillars. i think we ill be successful. with the european central bank looking to hold rates, many
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are looking ahead to rate cuts in 2024. many are pricing in more cuts and expect them to come sooner annettew weisbach filed this report >> reporter: the question is when will the ecb start to cut interest rates once again. inflation came back to the target range of the ecb and it is expected to fall further. at the same time, economic growth is sluggish in germany and also in others like france which is slowing down. that makes some commentators believe that the ecb could cut as soon as march next year the ecb president during the last press conference described the situation.
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>> we are data dependent we are not time dependent. data dependent on underline inflation, it specifically states in monetary policy that a lot of indicators are showing that underline inflation comes below expectation with the decline across all look at transition, are seeing a strong transition to the financing of the economy and strong transmission at large. particularly if we look at the volume of loans to both corporates and households. should we lower our guard? we ask ourselves that question no, we should absolutely not lower our guard. >> reporter: what speaks against quick rate cuts here in the euro area is also inflation, especially core inflation, which
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is still far too high for the ecb's taste. we have the energy crisis which could well rise over the winter period once again. in combination with employment, which is very strong and there is a risk of second-round effects with the negotiations, that cocktail could push prices higher that is why the ecb might not be as commied to signaling rate cuts as did the fed. one thing is clear, the door is open for re cuts the question is when they will happen depends on the inflationary environment and how much ecomic pain the ecb is willing to induce to the economy. clearly, the economy of the euro area is in a much weaker state than the one of the united stes >> from one ceral bank to another,an francisco fed president mary daly says holding
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interest rates steady could risk overtightening daly told the wall street journal the fed must make sure it doesn't give price stability at the expense of taking jobs. in the meantime, austan goolsbee said there could be a scenario where growth and inflation concerns are evenly balanced >> i believe that if we get improvement on inflation, that we are clearly moving the target we're still not there yet. we need to see these markers if we get inflation back into the range of our mandate goals, then we've got more asymetric concerns coming up on "street signs," the apple watch may take a bite are looking at a halt in theey u.s.
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welcome back to the show apple is set to pause u.s. sales on the latest watches from thursday just four days before christmas. the decision stems from the order of the u.s. trade commission from october with the visibility to sell products with the blood oxygen feature after the disagreement with apple and medical technology company they are working on software fixes with shares of apple are lower. head over to cnbc.com fomore on the sry. alphab will pay $700 million for changes to the app store to settle the anti-trust case which was brought by the u.s. department of justice we accused google of overcharging with the app distribution and
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un unnecessarfees it will make it easier to download apps from developers. and the eunvestigates x in the information manipulation chars. is the first charged under the digital serves act the founder of truck maker nikola haseen sentenced to four years in ison for defrauding investors a judge compared trevor mion to elizabeth holmes saying he used his social media accounto start-up technology in the bid to boo the company share price. you can read more about the lengths nikola went to on cnbc.com including a fake video of the
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truck model driving without a working engine. a big story yesterday, adobe and figma terminated plans for the $20 billion merger saying there was no path to approval from the uk competition and market authority or the european commission adobe will pay figma a $1 billion breakup fee as part of the termination. europe's regulatory climate is raising questions over the viability for tech startups as european companies continue to attract u.s. investment. we have the cfo of the securities which doubled valuation in recent weeks. wonderful to have you with us. let metalk about the $3 billio valuation. you recently secured $100 million in financing from a wall street investor.
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how challenging was it to obtain the financing in this environment? >> first of all, thanks for having me. good morning it is a good question and i think to answer it briefly, it wasn't that challenging because our business model has been proven over a long period. we have attractive economics we have been growing at a good scale while being profitable from that perspective, i think it was a fairly smooth ride for us raising capital. we benefitted from the experience and knowledge that we've built while raising our first institutional funding round two years ago. as a result of that, we were much better prepared in terms of the type of diligence that would
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be required and things like that we're very happy with the outcome, but i think it's that outcome which is a result of hard work that we have been doing consistently for the past ten years. >> no doubt. let me ask you about the general vc landscape in europe we have been talking about the general lack of ipo and m&a activity that is in the public arena. it tricks down the value chain. for less opportunity for exit, does that mean the funding for the region has dried up as well? >> i think you are right there's significantly less funding if you compare to the last couple years of 2021 and 2022 you know, this year will be down in the broader sense, particularly in europe, if you compare it to 2020, the amount
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of funding will be somewhat higher i think there is a strong particularly in europe achieving the type of maturity after, let's say, the -- before the first startup in the european sector over the last 20 years have shown strong and good results as a result of that. you know -- >> it looks like we have lost connection with the cfo of nord security we will look to get him back if you are not familiar with the coany, they operate an internet privacy and security company for individuals and
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small businesses they recently obtained $100 million in financing putting the valuation of $3 billion for e company. in the meaime, let's move on and take a look at the headlines coming from the ecb. this morning, the ecb released the update on the european financial system this is part of the supervisory division we will speak to the chair of the supervisory division later today. mr. enria. here he is speaking. to give you some of the headlines here, the ecb raised capital requirements for 20 banks judging they did not have enough cash set aside to cover unpaid loans the move is part of the central bank push to ensure banks are prepared for a possible rise in loan delinquencies amid the higher rate environment. throughout all of the year, we have been talking about european bank performance, but so far not seeing a major credit
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deterioration. the ecb is beginning to get worried, but we know the tide is tur turning, and the ecb is probably cutting rates toward the end of 2024 we will see how it plays out on the loans with the bank books. let's get back to our cfo of in nord sececurity. apologies for that interruption. you are a security provider for individuals and businesses how do you compete with the u.s. counterparts i know there are many companies in silicon valley focused with the rise of cloud computing and cloud security is a major theme. >> absolutely. that is a great question we compete in several ways first of all, in our core vpn
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market, which is a cybersecurity product that encvncrypts user traffic. we are the market leader in terms of scale and in terms of the breadth of infrastructure that we have and in terms of the proprietary technology and algorithms to provide the best systems for our clients. on top of that, we have a very strong and diversified go-to-market strategy. we help build a global user base unparalleled to our competitors. we have a sustainable business model. you mentioned the recent funding around, but for the first ten years, the company was
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bootstrapped we didn't raise a single dollar. we created the strong discipline in managing our dprgrowth at a sustainable way and finances which led us to the position we are now. we are diversified as well u.s. is 40% of our market and 40% of the revenue coming from europe and then the rest of the world markets like latin america and southeast asia we have a very product-driven innovation strategy. we are constantly working and upgrading our product suites we have vpn as well as ten products which we sell individually or as a platform. we also have a few products focused on the small and medium-sized companies
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it has many growth areas and very solid financial base off of which to continue security >> to round things up. are you anticipating any run-ins with european regulators we talk about increasing teeth with the regulation of tech companies. do you view the landscape as conducive for the growth of your business >> i think it has been very conducive so far because we're operating in the space that's creating good value to our stomers. we are operating in a space that is fragmented if you look at the broader cybersecity market with the core vpn product and the more general sense we also operate in markets where the focus on individual and
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business security and privacy is paramount. we're not operating in markets where the regulators would be restrictive of that freedom, as we call it from that perspective, we feel pret confident, but obviously monitoring that environment. >> thank you so much for joining me today on my show. the cfo of nord security wish you well. quick look at european markets before we head out they are all aiming toward the green shade now. trading volumes are trying up. keep a look out for november cpi numbers. that is itor our show. i'm joumanna bercetche "worldde exchange" is coming up next.
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