2023 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen andrew is out today. hi, joe. >> hey, becks. >> how are you >> you never call me becks >> i'm fine. becky. yeah they said tv wouldn't be glamorous. you know exactly what i'm talking about. >> yes, i do >> they said it would not be glamorous. low le little did it they know how are you? >> i'm feeling good in times square >> nice digs >> jealous of my lighting? >> is this you or me me

we went up again >> the dow managed to hold on to the all-time highs edged up slightly. it is now eight days in a row for tdhe dow and nasdaq. you see the modest advances again with the dow indicated up 28 oints s&p indicated up by 4 and the nasdaq up by 7 let's look at treasury yields the 30-year jumbo at 7%. believe it or not, that is good news the ten-year yield at 3.9%. joe mentioned the bank of japan left the ultra loose policy ununchanged the yen lost ground to the dollar overnight that is because the bank of japan hints it may tighten up policy and then doesn't follow through with it. it decided to stick to the yield

curve policy control for the ten-year japanese bond yield at 1% the boj governor said the outlook is high and the bank of japan has yet to force inflation and achieve their target there has been a lot of job and jaw-boning which moved the genyen higher reversing that last night. >> you would say what do you mean they are keeping rate low, but haven't seen the inflation target they are headed the other way. >> right they want to get back to 2%. >> inflation back up hence the converse of what we're doing over here. to the evolving breaking news and situation in the red sea. maersk said it redirected vessels to sail around the southern point of africa to avoid the red sea conflict area where the houthi militants

attacks ships. maersk ships have been waiting on both sides of the suez. the com the company said rerouting woul deliver faster and predictable outcomes for customers you can check out maersk shares right there. they are off a little bit. maybe we're lucky oil was on demand and supply concerns which had gotten to the point of a spike at low levels. you have a spike at 72.5 ceo of maersk will bon "money movers" today at 11:00 a.m >> the new show. they renamed it.

>> i knew that >> icame with the change of graphics lasweek you missed out. >> yeah. >> it is carl and sarah at 11:00 a.m. we should tell you that d. google has agreed to pay $700 million to allow for greater coetition in the play app store according to the terms of the anti-trust settlement which was disclosed inhe federal court yesterday. the settlement requires the judge's fineal approval. google was charging unlawfully fees for transactions. dpoob google will not admit wrongdoing users will receive $2 if you were part of the people injured by this. you may get additional payments

based on the spending on the app store since 2016 google will expand options for developers and users ability to download directly from developers you remember the john cusak mom movie, i want my $2. >> his famous movie was "say anything." >> "better off dead. thank you, paul. >> he holds up the boom box with peter gabriel? had. >> the kid trying to get his $2 for the newspaper delivery >> $2 used to be worth something. three years ago. >> right i like this. i'm trying to figure this out. man. tricky apple made a surprise

announcement yesterday to pause, i believe, we're saying, u.s. sales of two of the latest versions of the watches. the decision is a result of the intellectual property dispute with medical technology company massimo over the blood oxygen feature on the devices that is a clothing company >> two "ss." i think this is masimo >> same way. i nailed it. online sales of the apple watch series 9 and apple watch you will ultra 2 will pause on thursday walmart and best buy will continue the international trade commission ruled against apple the white house had 60 days to review the restrictions. apple said it would pause ahead of the deadline to ensure it was

complying with the order apple disagrees with the itc decision and pursuing legal and technical options to ensure the apple watch is available to customers. a bloomberg report sayg they are racing to make changes total algorithms for customers which may be enough to appease customers. masimo wants apple to change the hardware itself. >> this is a big deal because watches are a bigger and bigger part of the plan and strategy. i think it is 5% of the revenue they bring in right now, but the centerpiece for the apple health plan that tim cook has for the company -- i don't think they want to be beholden to the sales which will go as a royalty payment to someone else.

this is a big deal >> you don't have one yet? >> kyle has one. i don't have one that i wear we have them in the household. the idea of measuring the blood oxygen level is a big part of it >> you can afford one. >> i don't wear a watch. i don't have anything on my wrist. one more thing to wear i will say i considered it because of the health aspects of things my phone tracks how many steps and flights of stairs, on and on i can understand the reason for checking things and wanting to make sure as the devices get better and better that it is a good idea to have one to monitor your health down the road. i haven't hit that point yet it is something i've considered. >> you can wear an ekg monitor on your wrist. that's all i need. how often do you check

whoa >> what was that no, i don't need that. i don't want that. i don't want to know my mood i know my mood. >> i know your mood. >> i know my mood. >> a mood ring >> today i'm a 30. what is andrew >> 80s for his mood ring. >> high 30s. maybe. >> okay. you have a smile on your face. we'll take it. enphase energy plans to layoff 10% of the work force including workers and contractors in wisconsin the maker of solar equipment cited the challenging macro environment and the need to become leaner and efficient. enphase would ex-contend the hi and travel fees. earlier in the session yesterday, sunpower shares

plunged after they warned about the doubts of the ability to continue as a going concern. it breached a credit agreement with the third quarter results which could result in a default. it said if lenders demanded immediate repayment, it would not have liquidity to continue operations you can see sunpower shares down $4.20. when we come back, we will get you ready your portfolio ready for 2024 we talk strategy aft this break. you see the futures are a bit higher this morning. we have survey data of the use of artificial intelligence in the workplace "squawk box" will be right back.

loving this pay bump in our allowance. wonder where mom and dad got the extra money? maybe they won the lottery? maybe they inherited a fortune? maybe buried treasure? maybe it fell off a truck? maybe they heard that xfinity customers can save hundreds when they buy one unlimted line and get one free.

now i can buy that electric scooter! i'm starting a private-equity fund that specializes in midcap. you do you. visit xfinitymobile.com today. welcome back let's talk markets our next guest says 2024 will be a year with more investment options than we have seen in two years. anastasia amarosa, why do you think it will get better next year >> good morning, becky it has been a phenomenal year if you were invested in the broader equity markets and tech stocks everything else outside of that has not done particularly well for example, we have seen a

rally in yields, the treasuries are still breaking even for the year if you look outside of the magnificent seven, as we well know, there is not really a broad-based participation. i do think that's exactly what changes in 2024 is investors with greater options to invest across different sectors and asset classes as well. becky, the reason i say that is if the fed cuts rates and the yields move lower into 2024, then you can have sectors of the equity markets which got hurt by higher rates turn back around and you can have catch-up trades which lagged in 2023. >> what do you like the most >> a list of things. i'll share with you in equities with the laggards. the biggest laggard is on profitable tech. you can put small caps in that category as well 2023 has been about sticking with what you know which is the

biggest companies. if you look at unprofitable tech, it is down 54% from the highs we saw in 2021 it has been rallying significantly in november and december there is a huge gap to close when i look at smaller companies, they were disadvantaged by higher rates. some may have been overlevered all of that starts to turn and then that is a significant catch-up trade becky, the other one is real estate that is the other thing that people have abandoned throughout 2023 specifically commercial real estate everybody assumed the wall of maturities is upon us and that will get nasty now, if rates are, in fact, declining, first of all, that means property prices may be holding out better than expected then, the worry about the default maybe pushed back or canceled all together.

i like those catch-up trades in equities, but becky, don't forget fixed income. if you have yields declining and leading up to the first rate cuts, that means the rally for bonds continues as well. again, that is why i say it is a broad opportunity with equities and fixed income and venture capital and real estate and more >> here is what i don't get. if you think rates are coming down and that is a good opportunity for some of the areas, let's say small businesses that could not get access to capital before, or customers real estate, doesn't that also imply the economy is going to be coming down? if you are going to get the rate cuts, it is because the economy is struggling. those are the same companies that would drustruggle in that environment? >> it is a twofold reason. the economy is running at a

slower pace at 6% in the second quarter. the other reason, of course, is inflation. inflation should be hitting 2.7% by the second quarter of next year the third reason is we have rising defaults which slow the economy as well. all of those forces together slower growth and inflation which should cause the fed to he eventually cut rates if you apply that to what this means for the s&p 500, on the surface, it looks like we're fully valued we have a 19 times multiple and $244 on the s&p 500 earnings that gives you where we are today at 4,700 on the s&p. becky, one thing to remember is that the earnings estimates will shift and at some point they will take into account 2024. for 2025, rather when the earnings estimates shift and the 2025 number for

s&p 500 earnings and 275, that gives you the upside and the further momentum for the s&p and the reason to stay in the equity markets. quick point to tech and small caps the economy is slower, but if it is still growing and you don't have the concerns of the high cost of capital means the catch-up trades can work >> anastasia, everybody was convinced that 2023 was going to be a horrible year it turned out to be the opposite right now, everybody is convinced these gains can continue in 2024 what would change that scenario? what would be the outlining factor the unexpected thing to tip all of the expectations on their head, too? >> at this point, the unexpected thing is if the fed, oncagain,

r renegs on the rate cuts they stated if they don't and those companies will have to refinance their maturing debt or higher cost of capital, that raises problems you have the u.s. government to refinance at higher rates. you have the venture capital companies which have not had access to funding and if the fed doesn't cut rates, they may continue to short crahange. you have pockets of high yield which may be refinanced at higher rates as well the biggest assumption bulls are making for 2024 is the fed delivers on rate cuts. it that doesn't materialize, we have to study of the market and

say it say it continues to rally if there is a soft teriorate after first cut and slips into recession. >> that's the timing if they wait too long. >> correct >> anastasia, thank you. happy holidays thank you for coming on today. >> happy holidays to you. coming up, survey data of artificial intelligence in the work force we'll explain that later. and the doughnut revolt across the college campuses. purdue's mitch daniels will join us purdue he's got it going on in some other areas this year. how much power donors are yielding at universities yielding at universities "squawk box" will be right back. you know what's interesting these days?

bitcoin. look for bitwise, my friends.

the buzz around artificial intelligence is not only growing in the investment community, but workplace with the new cnbc work force survey we asked people about the use of a.i. at work and the feelings about the new technology sharon epperson is here to breakdown the results. good morning, sharon >> good morning, joe artificial intelligence tools are becoming more common in the workplace as employers aim to increase productivity. a survey conducted this month of 8,000 workers found about one-third say they used a.i. tools at work. 72% of employees said it made them more productive 28% said less productivity

you younger workers have more experience gen z used them and 35% of millennials and 17% of baby boomers. some workers are worried about job security 4 of 10 are concerned of a.i. impact of the jobs with lower salary employees most concerned. 60% are concerned abouimpact on their jobs. as the use of a.i. tools in the workplace is increasing, they are beworking on human interface it is important for employers to take a stance on social and political issues women and younger w er workers e more likely to have this view than older workers and men joe. >> what value do they see it >> this is interesting, joe.

everyone talks about how important it is to get that free money from your employer if you are offered it with the 401(k) matching contribution. that is not the number one benefit. people are looking for fully paid healthcare recopremiums maybe 70% or 80% of healthcare premiums they want the whole thing taken care of. after the premiums, then the 401(k) match then health and gym memberships paid for free food is important if you get free food on site. >> survey in terms of investing. what are workers doing >> you know, as you would expect, younger investors are driven by short-term gains older investors want the long-term outlook. what is interesting is the information. younger investors are seeking advice from family members and

friends. they will go to apps to invest and social media >> very good sharon, thank you. "squawbox" will be rht back after a short break. >> announcer: winnerand losers is sponsored by state street global advisors. the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here from the nasdaq market site in times square. you will see the dow is indicated up by 20 points. s&p futures up by 5. the nasdaq indicated up 15 now to washington. it has been a frustrating year for many in congress and dozens of lawmakers are now heading for the exits. emily wilkins is joining us with that story emily, this is the least

productive congress in modern history in terms of the laws passed >> reporter: in terms of the laws and, i think, if you look at congress on any given day and how much dysfunction is going on that is the lawmakers to consider whether or not they should stay. lawmakers are preparing to leave d.c. for the loholidays or for good 40 members of congress are not running for the current seats next year. that is the most in two decades. some members are seeking another office like house members going to the senate, but many have decided to leave the office like ken buck and dan kilday. they have been frustrated where anything getting done is increasingly difficult >> it is very difficult to move difficult issues we can rename post offices all day long, but we can't move difficulty issues in terms of cutting spending and dealing

with some of the really tough issues like medicare and social security and defense budgets >> what i learned is no matter what the rules are, no matter what the system looks like, if you have a group of people committed to blowing it up, they will blow it up. that's what we're seeing right now. >> reporter: dysfunction made it one of the least productive in congress only a couple dozen bills were cleared d gotten to the president's desk lawmakers punted a number of issues into next year, funding the government and now it seems like getting aid to ukraine and israel is ing to be held over until next year. guys, that means congress will have a lot to do and at this point, it is unclear how much they can get done before the election starts. >> emily, where is the hope in all this next year

will some of the log jams be removed? wall street looks at washington and says logjams are a good thing. would you say this has gottten t the point where there is such little activity that it is bad for wall street. >> becky, the bills where you have to pass them with some bipartisan support, but because of the small majorities and because of the partisan infighting, it is difficult for congress to do some of the basic things like fund the government. i think that's the point where you see ratings for the u.s. government begin to slip and a lot of concern coming into whether congress can do the minimum of its job. >> emily, thank you.

>> let's get to the battle on capitol hill with mark short he served as chief of staff and heidi heitkamp, former senator and director of the university of chicago institute of pol politics senator, i'm feeling it a little bit. i'm not saying it is bipartisan love yet, but the border seems to be on the radar screen now of a lot more democrats as a real issue. i don't know whether it is because 2024 is coming up or whether it is what we're seeing in the big cities controlled by democrats. democratic mayors are dealing with a horrific situation. why not be more amenable to tying the border provisions with ukraine and israel situation >> i think it is good politics r the democrats to talk about

border security to see or at least express concern that this problem needs to be fixed. you see th new senator john fetterman saying we need to fix the border jon tester says we need to fix the border we need to stop the flow of grants across the kborder which is disrupting not just the border cities, but cities across the uncountr the progressives are mad over what they believe is an inside deal and the conservatives are mad beuse they are afraid it won't go far enough. we will see how this turns out this will run straight into a budget crisis because they have until january 19th to fund the government they still haven't decided on top line i'm optimistic thapeople care. pessimistic that they t it done. >> i don't think you mea to say it would be politically e

expedient for democrats to >> i didn't say pretending, joe. it's important -- joe, when i was there, i talked about border security all the time. whether on the northern border or southern border, to suggest that democrats are not concerned or want an open border has been an exaggeration. the question is how do you secure it. you don't secure it with a 40-foot wall that people can scale. >> marc, if you are on the far right, do you think democrats want the votes from the down the road people? is that what is happening? is there a deliberate reason to not want to handle what is happening on the southern b

border that is a cynical view of what's going on i can't figure out why it's been necesglected so long. >> i always new senator heitkamp was committed to security. few of her colleagues do democrats prefer the issue rather than solving the border crisis as you look to the government funding and what is happening in january, there will be a lot of commitment to throw more money at it. what republicans want is a change in policy the trump administration put in place the remain in mexico policy if you are applying for asylum, you have to remain in mexico until it is adjudicated. what the democrats are calling for is an open-border policy the crux of the battle is on policy change which allows border security to have the authority back migrants who don't have a right to be

inside our country >> i don't know what speaker johnson's dealing with right now, marc. i don't know if you hear what is going on continue to do some of theim to things that speaker mccahy did in terms of usg democratic support for certain things do you think that original deal that former speaker mccarthy had with the biden administration for spending levels would be the right side of the freedom caucus >> joe, the irony is what kevin negotiated which was $30 billion less than what we passed to keep the government open a couple of months ago as you get to the january and february funding battles, i think speaker johnson has more leverage the reality is the bloodletting was so severe, that many don't want to go through that again.

it doesn't mean that the republicans will be hampered and never support what is moving forward. having said that, i don't think there is the same effort to vacate to remove speaker johnson. he has more flex bibility to gea bill passed in january and february because we split the two bills. >> heidi, where are we with the political spectrum with the funding for israel and ukraine i would ask about president biden's recent numbers which are crazy. it looks like he is losing democrats because the far left progressives are splintering because of the way the israeli situation is playing out and hamas situation. he can't win >> we're a long way from 2024 election i will tell you these are

incredibly difficult problems. the bottom line is i think there are more republicans than what you see on television who support ukrainian fundin as you know, i'm pretty adamant these are freedom fighters and fightingor our democracy and fighting for western europe's democracy and we have to get them the support they need i think there is suppo for that again, to the point you made, just a few people can make life very difficult for doing the right thing. you know, the full-throated support that the administration has for israel, i think, is consistent with long-term policy you also see aot of diplomacy around, you know, can we solve this problem diplomatically moving forward so we don't see a continuation of what's happening to civilians in palestinians and

gaza let me tell you, when the choice comes down bween president trump who said we will not let you in our country or president biden, i think, you know, that doesn't seem to be a choice if you are pro-palestinian people >> it is all sweighty, all these issues i have to quickly say this are you like hillary clinton are you vikings or commanders or bears? do you know? >> you know what i've always been a green bay fan. i'll keep being a green bay fan.

>> where are you right now that is bob marley >> it is >> you know what tough gong radio. it makes me feel happy i need it. heidi? >> i was going to say, i got that painting in belize. it is one of my favorite purchases on my trips. my other hero is janis joplin. nexto bob. >> the nasdaq isice. is it nice down there? what is it like, marc? it is nice >> it is wonderful being down here thank you, joe >> enjoying the spe. we'll get him coffee >> i'm still hail to the redskins >> you're ncels. u're not coming back. whencome back, tesla hing wages at the nevada

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tesla s informed workers at anthe factory in nevada that workers will s pay increases in january cnbc viewed internalaterials which said workers were informed

the cost of living increas. tesla hopes this staves off the talk of union collaboration. when when come back, senator john fetterman wants to block the sale of u.s. steel to a japanese company we will ow yshou what he said after this "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business next level moments need the next level network. le k it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. get iphone 15 pro on us. (♪♪)

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now to the deal news we brght you yesterday morning, japan's nip on steel is buying

u.s. steel for more than $14 million, and pennsylvania senator john fetterman said he would try to block it. >> i'm standing on the roof of my home here in braddock, pennsylvania, and i have to say it's absolutely outrageous they sold themselves to a foreign nation and a company, and steel is always about security as well, too, and i am committed to doing anything i can do in using my platform and position to block this >> they agreed to keep the headquarters in pittsburgh this is something the union came out and was angry that this deal was announced before they had time to weigh in on it andthey were in favor of the cleveland cliff steel, and a larger

portion of jobs around that that they are pointing to, and you do have a u.s. senator that could get involved in it >> i don't know -- i don't know, i am starting to like fetterman, and i don't say that a lot about -- people are sogarded and looking to see what their colleagues are going to think, and he really doesn't -- he said a few things lately about menendez and the border and about this, and he has broken with the conventional wisdom of his party, and you know -- >> senators get to do that a little more often but it's rare somebody is this outspoken >> because they don't do any legislation or anything. >> they have more freedom. >> they have a lot of time on

their hands. if they are t talking and posturing, they can do stuff like this every once in a while. let's talk more about deal making from the u.s. steel deal to adobe, walking away from its $20 billion acquisition, and the chairman joins us today. what do you think of the deals that have either fallen apart or been pushed apart, and regulatory insight has gotten less stringent >> screws are tightening on deals in a variety of areas, and in adobe figma, we saw two jurisdictions outside the united states bear down on it, and that's thearkets authority and the european competition commission, and in both

instances agencies are focusing on the concern that deals and the tech space run a risk of suppressing and limiting choic and this is a trend that will continue agencies around the world are taken by the idea that any trust law failed badly to take account of these kind ofnnovation concerns, and we have seen a cided effort to bear down and that's going to go ahead strongly in 2024 >> we used to e ebb and flow with the united states regulators, and would it change if there was a different party elected next year or not, because a lot of the focus on anti-deal sentiment even started under the trump administration >> yeah, the big google case, the monopolization case that came to a close in a trial was

brought during the trump presidency, and at least in the tech space, we might see a decided effort to continue the policy of stricken skwrupb see based on the preferences of the state. donald trump has expressed no particular love for big tech, and one imagines he would simply say carry on, at least with respect to that sector a change in regime might not produce a change in policy at all. >> as a former fdc chairman, do you think this policy is headed in the right direction >> i think there's a goo argument to be made that the controls had to be tightened the heart issue in this entire field is getting the dosage right, and that's getting the rightmeasure of the additional

stricke stricken genesee in place. the abandonment of a health care facility in california as well, and they are having a good run of events the last week, but they will still jump into a f fiduciary that will be fairly demanding, and although it shows even a very conservative bench is not necessarily inclined automatically to side with companies. >> william is the former fdc chair, and i want to thank you for your time today. >> thanks for having me on >> thank you tufures so far indicated higher "squawk box" will be right back. . -no problem. so what are all those for?

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good morning is the rally running out of steam? futures near the flaline this morning. a little higher after winning another session yesterday. new concerns this morning about cargo ships in the red sea as houthi rebels ramp up attacks

and threaten the global supply chain. details straight ahead with less than a week to go, shoppers are feeling more bah mbug about tir shopping experience we have the data the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ ♪ good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc i am joe kernen along with becky quick. andrew is out this morning here are the futures as we look ght now, you can see the implied open and it indicates we could see gains in the pmarket early on it's a meagegain, but gains nonetheless, and we would have eight straight wee if we were to end up with some positive

upward momentum this week. a lot of it has to do with what we have seen in treasuries that was the quickest move up by 5%, and the quickest move down below 4. actually i can remember moves bigger than that back in '87, believe it or not, becky, there was a 300-basipoint move on the crash. of what percentage was that off >> you know, it was 1987, so once again i am dating myself. >> i can't rember yesterday's guest list >> iwas moving between 9, 10 and 11%. >> that's big. >> i remember it well because i had a client that it either long or short -- it was the futures

when you see 300 basis points move in a session is really unbelievable >> scary >> now we saw it ran up from about -- >> 4.4 -- >> remember? jay powell -- we will talk to liesman in a second, and he sounded a little more -- he said higher for longer or more stridently it went up and started coming down quickly on a couple jobs numbers and inflation numbers, and then, of course, you had what happened last week with the real possibility of cuts next year, and here we are. >> that's their expectations, too, the federal reserve overnight, shipping gian merck redirectedts route

thships have been itinon bothidesf the ez cal it wleasedy forts theaid s. and itsllies to form a navel skorce to counter the tacks d en deced reroutg ships aroundfrica is a way bigger detour, and it would be having more faster and predictable outcomes for its customers. its shares are off about 2.87% separately, chevron tells cnbc it will continue to assess safety of the routes in the red sea and make decisions based on the latest developments, and that's an issue we are watching very closely in the meantime, americans say they are blue over the economy and other issues, but >>eah, green and be, greeny

becausthey will spd mo but blue because they e down on the ecomy. sayi they e ing to spe, re, anthen 4% say th are spending less, and that'good ws we s pplspendi in doub dits, anthat conastsith the sedint dat a it proves sghtly but remas depresd. for the ye -- byhe way, th is ua litt bit othe arter,ut ts is on the ye for thavere, and 66% bng pessimtic, a in the futu it's a rord gh ithe 17 thisata ntinues wi this

confli beten lsy stiment ta and strg spding da. ung veus old ispendi more theyremopbeaon thens onomy, a afran amecan adults versuwhite ults are why e ey spendmore it becau they are ing pa more is at 32%ayand 24% y ey think things cosmore thpoor sentiment data showg in rsnumberthan in e st for president biden we will have that report in the 10:00 a.m. hour, or you can read

it right now on cnbc.com, becky. >> the spending, and consumers are spending now but they are not going to spend later i feel like that has been a broken record we have been listening to for the last couple of years >> it's tr people have been forasting the demise of the consumer for a long time and it doesn't happen. my theory on this is all the economists and the forecasters and analysts put a lot of weight on the money consumers got from the government and put less weight on the idea that both many americans are employed with that low unemployment rate and wages, too, especially on the low and moderate end have come up, and have come up, becky, just in time for the holiday season we now have real or inflation-adjusted positive income growth and that, i think, has to help. the other thing i find, becky, if you are out there shopping and wondering, how do things look for me next year. people are relatively confident

in their jobs. you have other studies showing people are confident in their jobs >> thank you here to discuss the playbook, former atlanta fed president, dennis lockhart it's good to see you >> thanks,oe >> i am thinking and musing and looking back at the conversation we went through, and i am trying to get a gauge on what we went through in terms of inflation now that we have made at least a large part of the round trip i'm starting -- you tell me, is it more akin to transitory pandemic-related issue or we valued the dollar and at caused wages to start going up,

and it's the classic wage price spiral i am starting to think that because we handled it and it did come down so quickly that maybe it was transitory all along. which was it >> i will give a weasely answer, i don't discount the fiscal stimulus, but it is appearing that it took a long, long time, but the inflation was related to the supply chains and markets that were out of balance and now they are coming back into balance. we're seeing the price pressures resolve because of markets workin i put a lot of weight on the long transitory story. >> yeah, things that never repeat but just rhyme, and it

could be a little of both. i am wondering if it makes the full round trip or we get stuck where we are at 3 1/2 our 4, and the last two might be those two other things, might be wage pressure are sort of in a hybrid between a horrible situation that we faced, you kw, back in the volker years, and maybe something that takes care of itself as time passes? >> that's one of the big questions of the moment. you heard so much about the last mile, and it got to be, i think, assumed that the last mile getting from 3% to 2% was going to be difficult. you know, my recent readings sugges there are economists that doubt that now, and they think getting to 2% will not be such a difficult task. i don't know it remains to be seen if it

turns out to be difficult. there are elements of the economy that are sort of structural in nature that could be pro inflation, for example, i think the labor markets are going to continue to be tight. we're not going to have a surplus of labor, and for that reason there might be chronic pressure on wages. >> the reason i am thinking about all this, the likelihood or prospect or do we have it right, do the fed have it right in terms of next year's cuts, and if we don't get that last mile and if the economy stays -- you just heard liesman talk about everybody is staying a lot of money on christmas, and the labor market stays strong and we don't get that last mile and it's difficult to get down further, why would the fed cut if the economy stays strong? >> well, you know, the summer of economic projections can be over

interpreted, and it's how they see the world in a point in time, individuals, 19 individuals, and it doesn't translate into policy and it's not a communication of the committee itself, so the three expected -- that's the median, the three cuts in 2024 may materialize if all goes well, but if they are struggling with inflation, i tnk we will be back to the high for longer theme. >>eah. i just don't -- that's not -- well, higher for longer but not additional heightss not what the market is looking at now that's not going to make anybody happy. there's a lot of, you know, a lot of the positive sentiment we have seen with equities, and the bond market has to do with that, that that's definitely going to happen, and i was talking to the president of the chicago fed, and i asked him whether we still

need unemployment to go up for the fed to actually cut. if unemployment stayed where it was and inflation stayed down, with the fed follow-up on the cuts >> i saw that interview with ghoulsby, and i thought he avoided that question. their expectation is unemployment has to go up a little bit, not much, just the low 4s from where we are today, and that's probably the philips curve thought process just playing through to expectations. >> dennis, it's interesting you thought he evaded that do you think he didn't want to get pinned down on that answer why would that be? >> central bankers don't want to be pinned down on a number, and

it's been pretty impressive, i have tsay, that we have gotten inflation down to where it is today, and by some measures using run rates and shorter term measurements, you know, we're not that far away from 2% or at least 2.5%, so i think ghoulsby, who i respect, didn't want to talk about employment. >> some day he will be fed chair, and with what you just said there, his skill in avoiding any answer, he has a good chance, right >> we will see >> we knew him when, joe >> we are not taking credit. >> we can ride on his coattails.

>> we can stand in the way >> joe, you call him mr. president, but becky could just call him austin. >> that's fine >> i think he should call you the same, president lockhart >> i am a civilian now that's it. >> it was good to have you on. thanks >> thanks so much. coming up, a surge of anti-semitism on college campuses after the start of the israel and hamas war, and former purdue president, mitch daniels, joins us, next and cryptocurrency up strong this morning, just under 43,000 here we'll be right back. tcoin.

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i'm gonna be emotional, she's gonna be emotional, but it's gonna be so worth it. i love that i can give back to one of our customers. i hope you enjoy these amazing gifts. oh my goodness. oh, you guys. i know you like wrestling, so we got you some vip tickets. you have made an impact. so have you. for you guys to be out here doing something like this, it restores a lot of faith in humanity. collegcampuses led to a so-called donor's revolt and protests on how the universities are handling the incidents, and these actions have led to campus officials and others to consider whether donors have anutsized role on campuses for a closer looat this we want to welcome mitch daniels,

former indiana governor that served as purdue's administrator until this past december why don't we start with the situation on college campuses ght now, because it has been eye-openinto people that were not so involved and did not know what was happening on some of the college campuses where do you see all this? >> i don't know why anybody was surprised, and if anybody was surprised it was some of the people leading the campuses, and i termed it their bud light moment and to theishock that the opinion that is is not held widely like on their campus the young people that e

mistaught and miseducated about history in general, the history of israel, you know, when surveyed half of them, they knew the chant, but when surveyed half of them didn't know what river they were talking about. they still have a fighting chance to learn something later in life. >> what do you think is happening on college campuses? just this idea of having a one-sided view of things and not being challenged, and i don't think it was the case at purdue and other universities where do you think it's happening and why? >> it's happening pretty wideless and not mysterious, and if you have three or four decades of people picking their own peers, and boards and trustees began advocating their responsibility to oversee educational policy a long time ago, and you have had two or three generations of faculty

picking their own, and it's like watching a fraternity, frat guys picking their own devices just like them, and that's how you get the ratios >> if the question is now whether donors have too much undue influence, whawould your response be? >> donors don't have any response outside of athletics. it's interesting, becky, some of the toughest mindebusiness people and professionals i know, people youould be happy to have leading your business, put them on a college board they go weak in the knees,nything for their old alma mater, and they

let too many unpardonable offenses go unchallenged >> what are the unpardonable things are you talking about >> well, just thiseek i saw that the head of the association of a university of professors whaling about an authoritarian state. the closest models we have of authoritarian state today college campuses, too many of them where one dogma is universal and, as i said, monolithic, and people are encouraged to snitch oeach other for dissent or violating it, and there's punishment if you use the wrong pro noun or this, i think, is the product, really, of the process that i

described a little while ago, and i do believe that it's somebody's duty -- if you read the by laws of any school i know, it's the president's duty to protect free speech and to try, really, to ensure some diversity viewpoint, which is the only kind of diversity not held sacred right now. >> i was going to ask how you fix it, but i am being told we need to rap. you think the boards and presidents need to take control again? you see them getting forced out by some of the donors, and the way they got to the point is th are worried about getting forced out by the tenure professors >> it's the board's call i ho they do we need a strong -- somebody

forecast not too long ago, if they don't mend their ways, they will become a place where the elite schools, at least, where children of privilege go to meet each other a agree on their own superiority, and beyond that not much in soety is happening. >> we always appreciate your time, mitch, and hopefully we will talk to you again soon. >> seasons greedings >> you, too. happy holidays >> i would ask him, too, purdue -- yodon't think of purdue, but i bet at purdue -- >> basketball. >> yeah, that, too, and you have seen some creep up that way even as mitch daniels athe former president. it's everywhere. where is it not, like? >> it's generational, by the

way. look, it's -- >> he described having aunch of people that never had a real job hiring each other -- >> it's not -- he didn't say not having a real job, and those were your words, he said a bunch of -- >> a bunch of liberal academics hiring liberal academics -- >> let's say you and i got to choose everybody if you want a diversity of opinions, you want a diversity of influence >> you havour friendown in tulane, and -- it was walter, and right at that time a dipurdue have nothg? bet th did move awe head to break,

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welcome back to "squawk

box. i am dominic chu with your premarket movers shares of apple are up marginally around maybe 50,000 shares of volume they lost nearly a percent in yesterday's trade. the giant did surprise some on wall street and main street yesterday when it decided to pause sales of the latest apple watch models before the christmas holiday in response to an intellectual property disagreement it's having in the technology involving the oxygen tracking feature in some of the watches. they will halt in store sales after sunday, so keep an eye on apple chairs now sticking with mega cap, microsoft shares is being named a top pick for 2024 by analyst over at oppenheimer. they have a $410 price target.

and they like among other things, microsoft's leading in artificial intelligence. fedex is moving on slight gains and losses, and up half a percent right now. beyond the headline profit and revenue numbers, investors will pay close attention to shipping and commerce trends its seeing during the holiday shopping season right now, and the options market is currently pricing on what could be a move of plus or minus 5% on the heels of those earnings reports. keep an eye on fedex shares. we have more on "squawk box" after the break. keep it right here there'more "squawk box" after this

there were only a handful of real ai winners in 2023, but more may show their strength in the new year, at least that's the hope for investors steve co vehicle joins us. it was nvidia and microsoft

after a year of hype and planning, more companies could step on the gas if 2024 starting a new wave of other beneficiaries other than the p magnificent 7 we have been talking about all year intel will be selling its own ai chip next year as well and look for more activity from the software companies that will be able to easily incorporate ai into their products, and adobe adobe, and salesforce, and then there were a slew of name poised to benefit from new sec rules the big guys aren't finish microsoft said its cloud

business growth reaccelerated thanks to its partner, and companies are paying open ai indirectly and microsoft there's a lot going on here. we have to talk about google, which is still playing catch up to open ai and microsoft, and there's a lot more companies are coming let's talk abouthe startups such as inthraupic, and there's a lot going on it's really just microsoft and nvidia right now actually making money, but there are software -- >> yeah, a lot of them trying to figu how to make this work thank you. let's bring in our guest,

michael wolff, and as you figure out which way to go, do you think it will be a situation where the big tech guys are the ones that will dominate, or will there be startups that can take over the scene >> well, this is the race that will be between the big tech companies, and what is fascinating about it is apart from open ai and microsoft, they are all going for scale and they will ae vae van jewelize. me meta's is for the most part open source, and it's free. adobe, yes, adobe is charging 499 for firefly, and it's fascinating to me because it's on top of what they are charging

for their creative suite they are already implementing and integrating ai like automatic fill and other things for creators >> this feels different to me than past tech resolutions, and that's because there are a limited number of engineers that will drive most of the new and different changes, and from what i hear in the background there's a huge battle to capture most of the engineers, and if you can get them inhouse, that's how you win. what microsoft effectively did was buy open ai without buying it >> yeah, essentially they have been able to corner the market, and they are getting money out of it in, really, three ways one of them is whatever they are selling on chatgpt, co-pilot, as we just mentioned, and at the same time it's not only that but it's going to be their cloud

service, which is growing. the companies with large amounts of compute power, they are going to do very well in this environment. >> and it costs a ton of money to get that computing power. so you have to have deep pockets if you want to be in the game? >> and to your point, the company with the best technology wins, and that's the difference between what the big guys can do and what the startups can do >> what about google, their launch, gemini was messy, and we have been hearing from them from the past nine, ten or 11 months telling us it will be great, they will put it in search and they are still behind open ai and microsoft, and is that something to be worried about or are you confident they can catch

up >> by not charging individuals to use the service they are trying to get to some level of scale, but microsoft is way ahead of them. the street is very concerned, to the extent of which the first place you go for a search is to chatgpt or other places before you go in fact, our firm's research shows there's a lodge number of people that want to begin their journey on search with chatgpt and then go to google. >> that's not happening, though, and when this first came out, it never materialized and google is still dominant, so how did they incorporate this into the search >> they are incorporating chatgpt into bing, and it's to the extent to where they can

attach ads to search results through ai, and their entire system is based on their ability as you are searching for them to supply ads we don't know where it's going to go. we believe as a firm it's more likely people will start their search on ai models, and ai services before they are going to go to search. >> do they rely on -- from that pepective, look, tkpwaog sl in a better position than the search engine of dominance, and then bing has open ai athis point, and what is more important, to have the open ai or have the stronghold on the foot search -- >> a piece of the search share is so much more, and that has gotten pricey for advertisers,

and for many of our clients, it's much lower priced, bing, and overall it's not going to be substantial versus google, and anhing else in the rest of the market >> but it's a big pot of money if you can get a little bit of it >> talk about footholds in the enterprise, and microsoft has the foothold that google doesn't have in searches, but it's microsoft. >> and amazon has a massive aled aws business. >> micha, thank you for coming in >> great to be here. >> thank you joe? >> coming up, less than a week left until christmas, and stores are expecting to have more sales. quk x"s mi rht

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♪ we have less than a week to go before santa arrives, and new data shows the shopping experience has been a little rough. courtney reagan joins us with the numbers. what are we seeing >> less than a week left until christmas. >> i know. it's a fact that struck me pretty hard. >> right we are expecting to see increased traffic in stores, because you are running out of time for online orders to make it in time for christmas, and saturday is expected to be the second biggest day for shopping of the year, and lately in store shopping is not always a great experience retail store emploes are

ask asking to do more. it has frustrated shoppers as a result of locking up goods many consumers understand the need to secure inventory in some cases, and they like the option of online orders being picked up in the store, and they asked consumers about their in store experience and how it compares to precovid, and it showed 42% of the customers feel the access to product availability has gotten worse 72% notice a lack of available associates when they neehelp that's a big issue, right? there's a debate if theft is worsening in retail.

42% of consumers have ported having an experienceith customer theft, meaning they have seen it happen orere around when somebody was arrested or apprehended beuse of that, and i have seen it in new york, and it's a jarring experience if you see somebody openly saling something, and it's a strange condrum shoppers understand the measures but manot like them. >> it's frustrating, i have to say. i have thought this for while, the retail stos, brick and mortar stores arupset people are not coming into the stores, and you go there and try somethg, and they don't have anything in your size or associates to help you, and the associes in the store are saying, well, you know, you n buy it online. >> yes we asked executives to quantify this, and we know certain ars are worse for some of the theft, so have you seen a drop-off in

traffic and sales, a they are not saying if they are or not, but it seems inevitable because we are all having the experiences. let's do a survey, and it was eye-opening. stores are your best options lately >> the one thing i will say is we have the most time ever between thanksgiving and christmas and we are still all procrastinators and can't get it done >> isn't that the truth? i was thinking about it the other day. >> the saturday before christmas. >> i didn't know that. is that true -- >> yeah. still to come, are consumers hitting the brakes on buying electric vehicles? duh. despite tax breaks and price cuts and a bigger selection, we will discuss with former ford ceo, mark fields, next

we are monitoring the situation in the red sea all prices are slipping a little as investors weigh the potential impact of the attacks by yemen's houthi rebels. we will have more on that in a bit. we're coming right back. what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com.

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saleof electric vehicles in the united states have althgh evs don rlly stall,

otheevanufacrers a largt maker, teslaand gain some market share. joining us now, mark fields, former ford motor company president and ceo, as well as a cnbc contributor such a multi-faceted discussion, where i could come from on this, mark, just in terms of, you know, the biden administration, and some of the goals or some of the mandates that 've set and how those are increangly looking at this point. they better hope about that expression that things happen gradually and then all at once, because i don't see itappening nearly as quickly as their ban banking. >> i agree with you 100% we've talked about this a lot over the last numberf months listen, when you think about the administration, you know, in the infrastructure act, let's just do a little math to kind of bring out your point so the administration and the infrastructure act allocated

out $7.5 billion to build chargers, 500,000 chargers very few have been built so far. and part of that is just the regulatory hoops you have to go to build them and part of it's the supplyhain but if you look at a lot of the projections, the projections say, listen, by 2030, to meet the supposed demand, the u.s. is supposed to have about, anywhere between $1.2 million and $1.4 million chargers today, t u.s. has about 180,000. so let's take that lower number, the 1.2 million, joe that bically says, every day, between now and 2030, because they say by 2030, you need 1.2 million, you have to be instalng every day between now and 2030, 465 chargers per day that means the math doesn't work, and i thinthe automakers have recognized that, and that's why they've called back. and listen, as we all know, over time, the industry here is going

to transition to electric vehicles but it's not going to transition in the time frame that everybody originally expected. and that's why you're seeing the automakers pull back on their investments. >> i was even going to ask you that everybody says that, yeah, we know that sooner or later, we are going to- so that's a fact that's a ft. i mean, up to this point, mark, and i know, i'll get flack for saying it, but the world wlive in right now is made possible by fossil fuels and the world is unbelievable when you can fly to china and do thisnd -- you think of the amount of leisure time that have, how many people are either warm in the winter or cool in the summer and you just look at the benefits of what it has given us, u're absolutely sure that within a certain amount of time, the entire world is going to be electrified at that point. >> well, you know, joe, it's a fact, obviously. fossil fuels are a depleting

resource so at some point, we're going to run out. >> okay, natural gas, when do you see us running out of natural gas? i undetand, but we know malfas one has ever made a malfusian bet has ever made money on anything peak oil, the guy finally died who talked about about that happening. peak oil keeps getting pushed out. more fuel efficient. maybe it won't be oil, hvy, light, sweet, ever it is but natural gas or some type of hydro hydrocarbon. >> liste on natural gas, again, you need to transition. if you're talking natural gas, you know, there's a lot of invements that the automakers need to make to actually make thatappen. and then you lay on top of it a new distribution system, right you have gas stations today, now you're getting electric chargers, now you're assuming, hey, we can build out an infrastructure of natural gas

vehicles i think, listen, i agree it's going to take a long time here's an interesting factd, joe. when y look he tr 1 wer trn pplier they said, hey, listen, we're going to be investing primily in electric vehicles going forward. so when you look at the fuel economy improvements that have traditionally come out of the power terrain suppliers to support better fuel economy, to support the epa regulations, that's going to get tougher going forward, because you're basically going to be -- unless these tier 1 suppliers start reinvesting in nt generation ice power trains, you're not going to have as mh improvements and that's why the government, i beeve, will have to back off some of these very ambious targets, because not only will the technology not allow you to get ere in the time frame, but consumer demand won't. >> and then you're going to have

all of your charging stations, because we're going to make 400 every day, like you said and then, you better hope people have the evs to use them, too. and you better hope not ev everyone's ev is a tesla, because nobody's buying any of the other ones at that point you better hope that the recent uaw wage gains don't make the transition impossible from a -- without the government stepping in and doing and boili bailing h entire industry. >> on the cost side of your point, let's look at a snapshot today, most people buying evs today are wealthy consumers. if you look at the third quarter, about 25% of luxury car sales were evs on non-luxury cars, it was about 3% so, you know, clearly right now, the average cost of an ev, and i know we're talking averages, is about 25% higher than an ice

vehicle. and that's down 20% since the beginning of the year and all the price cuts that have happened if you boil that down to, you know, the family that's sitting across the kitchen table and wondering, you know, how they're -- what they're going to buy, if you assume an 8% interest rate more or less, that's difference of a cost in an ice vehicle, average ice vehicle versus an ev, it's about $275 a month the challenge for the industry is over time, how do they make -- how do they equalize that it takes the cost issue off the table. but then you get to the infrastructure issue and the charging infrastructure. so most consumers are going to say, hey, listen, when you solve the cost issue, and when you solve the charging infrastructuressue, then i'll consider it. and i think that's whyt's going to take longer than expected >> okay. we'll be talking -- we'll be talking again abt it i bet you we've got nowhe by next time. thank you. good to have you on. >> thanks. still to come on "squawk

box" this morning, galaxy digital's mike novogratz will talk crypthe t markets and more he'll join us rit after this break. "squawk box" will be right back.

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markets kept their swining streak alive and so far, so good today. the dow and the nasdaq up eight straight sessions. futures pointing a little bit higher again this morning. a long way to go, though one of the world's biggest shippers says that some of its vessels will avoid the area of the red sea that's seen some attacks lately, but the u.s. and other countries say they're gointo steup now to protect global commerce. and crypto in 2024 we're going to ask mike novoatz if the spot bitcoin etfs are, in fact, a cse reality as some of the bulls think. final hour of "squawk box" starts right now good morning, everybody. and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernan

andrew is off today. and so far, we are seeing the same sort of thing that weave seen every day, it seemsike, pretty positive looks at the fair value boards. dow futures are up another 91 points after gaining again yesterday for the eighth day in a row. s&p futures up by about 11 the nasdaq indicat up by about 32 and this just feels like that same sort of meltup we've been loing for at weeks at this point. if you check out treasury yields, you'll see right now that the ten-year is sitting just at 3.9%, the two-year is at 4.4% >> i expect bitcoin is up as we mentioned. it's up abt 14% this month alone. way up for the year. i don't know how much. my next guest thout it was 80% or something let's get right into it with chris, the broader markets llowing what the fed said last joining us is galaxy digital ceo, mike novogrz. and i don't know how you would weight all the different things, mike but for a while, it looked like

the bitcoin price came off 25,000, we started headed up, based on some ofhe spot etf conjecture, but this latest move, which really accelerated, had a lot more to do with what you think, as an alternative to fiat, as an alternative to money printing, when the fed said, yeah, we may go back into an easing phase again, and then it was off to the races >> yeah, bitcoin up 150% on the year >> 150 >> yeah, for all the bitcoin skeptics out there, a little victory lap. listen, the fed's pivot is really important that pre conference was as dovish as anybody expected d the markets are behaving that way you look at, you know, fixed income markets, equity markets, they all are now trading effective, and as of march, january, or they wait until the

april meeting, we'll see we'll see what their narrative is, we'll see what the inflation data is. but this is all based on inflation coming dow and it's not based on growth collapsing and so they shifted to an inflation -- a more inflation-focused fed, which gives them the room to cut rates. i think crypto likes it. 're going to get this etf before january 10th. that's kind of the drop dead datehat genzler has before he gets in trouble wi gray scale and the lawsuit. and so i think you're going to see this, you know, announced -- we'll start trading they be, right? that probably kes six to eight weeks after that but it's just more fuel for a fire crypto stocks are trading almost like a maniac. nervous -- i'm a little nervous, because iteels so good, you know a lot of the coins -- my friend called me yesterday and said the de-gens, the degeneres, the

traders are having a field day and that always gets you a litt bit nervous so, listen, could stock market could it go up ten days in a w? there's always a correction. but broadly, we're still in bull market phase >> so then, let's assume that eventually regulators and just the whe institutional world is able to to act on at it would like to do with bitcoin and crypto what will it be? it will be a safe haven or a speculative asset that people run into it when they want t take a lot of risk and make a lot of money or a combination of both >> joe, i've been down to d.c. a lot in the last four months. if i had any faith that we would get a simpson bowles amendment to balance the budget or have any fiscal pdence, i wouldn't be as estabullish on bitcoin but i just don't and we're going

into election year so you'll have a fed cutting with a 5% budget zpdeficit and projected 5% budget deficit next year and the following year. if people start shifting 1% of their portfolio, institutions, 1%not 10, just 1, there isn't a lot of supply in bitcoin or etheorem we have customers that are platform cusmers and buy enough bitcoin every day to take out all the miners so when you think about the suly/demand dynamic, we haven't really had a situation where you have a global market anyou have something of such limited supply and so i think bitcoin can go fahigher i think first stop next year will be the old highs. 69,000, but it wouldn't surise me if it went beyond that. >> and you don't think there's any possibility now that either

poli policians or, you know, corporate leaders, jamie dimon and the like say, look, this is used to fund terrorist activity, the only use case is for money laundering and nefarious means and lrngillette elizabeth warrek jamie dimon is right, we neeto put a stop to this the horse is out of the barn that's never happening >> that's never happening. this is a global asset there are so many unbelievably respected investors that believe that bitcoin has value so again, i would -- jeff yaths and by johnson and bill miller, i can get you 50 on the other side of the table. or elizabeth warren, who gives you the right to say what has value? the terrorist financing elit sis use cases has kind of been

debunked yes, some crypto is used for bad things, but t nearly as much as fia right jamie dimon's bank has paid $38 billion in fines since he's been there. $38 billion. add up all of the bad trades with crypto, it doesn't add up to $38 billion so should we ban jpmorgan? that's a crazy statistic >> so gary genzler and some of the other regulators, is it easier or safer to just nodo anything or doesn't that sort of leave investors in this country -- actually around the world, jt, that makes it more risky than if ey were to actually just take the bull by the horns and decide what to do. there's a group of democrats and republicans in d.c. that want to get legislation through. there's two pieces of legislation that would really give us good framework around

both stable coins and the rest of crypto. and it's elizabeth warren and the white house, you know, the biden white house, that is stopping that. and i think post this election, we will either have a new administration, either democrat, republican, but even if biden wins, my guess is there's a new secretary of treasury and a new head of the fcc that will finally make some progress there are plenty of democrats that won crypto legislation, just not enough at state to take on elizabeth warren. >> when you look at it long-term now, i don't know, do you get really into the weeds? do you get geeky with, you know, when the havings are coming? or do you look at stock? is there any way that you try to value it in your mind, that -- and it sounds ridiculous, probably, when you do. because if you take a percentage of the global financial system and you ascribe -- >> the way it --

>> and you've got 21 million you can get the like, ridiculous numbers. >> the only way i've -- listen, crypto as always been about a narrative, right it's a social contract between me and you that this thing has value. and the thing th is closest to that in our world is gold. and so i think gold with a $12 trillion market cap, and a $1 trillion mark cap, and think we've got a long way to go if we were half of gold, we're six times, you know, five to six times where we are now that's 250,000 timeet's take it one step at a and that's my alert that we have a long way to be gold. and as you see the charlie mungers, and that money go from the old generation to younger investors, and we're kbgoing to see the single largest transfer of wealth in the history of this planet in e next 15 years,

young people like crypto a lot more than old ople and so, you know, we're going to see the baby boomers fade to gray, and gen-x, and millennials or gen-z buy crypto. >> yeah, you probablare feeling a little better about your stuff you weren't feeling that great at 17,000. but u weren't feeling that great when we were down at 12 and 13 we've been talking about this foa long time. it's been all over the pce, too. >> it was about a year ago that i was getting beaten up on this exact show >>ovogratz -- >> i think that had more to do with sbf and some of the things that were unfolding than the price of crypto. >> or the tattoo he had. what did it say? >> i don't remember. but it was when things were -- there was rampant fraud that was being uncovered at the time.

>> wear some crazy stuff, o. >> this outfit was pretty good >> it was. >> you looked more like a banker >> when weome back, the latest on tensions in the red sea and what themean for global energy prices and trade let's take a look at the futures this morning still in the green dow futures up by close to 90 points stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc when you think investment risk, do you consider climate risk? changing weather patterns e impacting the way we live and the value of businesses large and small. this c mean disrupti to supply chains, changing demand for products d shifting regulation. what does this mean for your business, your clients, and your investments? ice offers data and maets that can provide iticalnsight. manage your climate risk with ice.

now to tensions in the red sea and those attacks on ships by iranian-backed houthi rebels. shipping giantmersk says its vessels will sail around the southern tip of africa instead of going through the red sea meanwhile, the u.s. defense secretary announcing a multi-national security operation to help protect those ships. joining us right now on all of this is megan o'sullivan she's director of harford's bell center she served in a variety of roles in democratic and republican administrations. and megan, i think we need to back things up so people understand what's really happening here this is a situation where those rebels, the houthi rebels that are backed by ran had announced that they would be attacking

ships and warning ships not to stop in israeli ports and that they would be attacking any ships that looked like they were sailing towards israel, correct? >> y, becky, good morning. that's correct these are hohi rebels in yemen who have vowed to and who have continued to attack ips and they really have made it clear they're going to do it without respect to nationality it's simply, if they're going in the direction of israel, which is the direction that all shipping goes -- that goes through the suez canal, and goes through the canal that is basically between africa and the arabian peninsula, where yemen sits so, this has affected already, indirectly or directly, about the interests of 40 nations. so again, has been without discretion for which coury would be affected. >> so we look at this as a commerce operation, but this is a war-time effort, as well, if yore looking at this being something that is trying to prevent anything from getting through to israel.

>> sure. i think if you would have ked analysts at the beginning of this war on october 7th how it might affect trade and energy in particular, people mig have pointed to the straits of hormuz, which iran is adjacent to and has threatened to close on many occasions. or you might think about the disruption of actual production if the war escalated beyond israel and gaza, which it still could do but this is the third scenario, where you have shipping, not just of oil, but also of all kinds of dry commodities a very significant percentage of grains, of world trade go through this particular strait and as you said, this is a tax on commercial shipping, but in a wartime context with a wartime objective, which is for the houthis to sustain hamas and the houthis are supported by

iran it was very significant when defense secretary lloyd austin made the announcement of this multi-national maritime effort to try to protect these waterways, when he said the iranian spupport for the houthis must stop. >> so a way for iranians to continue to do things without them being able to directly pointed at this, they continue to say, this isn't them? >> yes, this is a very carefully calibrated escalation and response on the part of iran and on the part of the united states and on the part of the houthis the hewouthis get their support from iran, but it's believed that iran fully controls the houthis. there is an element of, this is a one-arm-stretch away this is not iran attacking israel directly, which would invoke a very direct and serious response this is something a little bit more subtle. the u.s. responding in a

calibrated fashion to protect what has been a longtime global interest, which is freedom of navigation of the seas, and doing so in a way that hopefully provides deterrence and encourages the houthis to stop this activity, but it does run the real risk of actually escalating the situation in a way that could see the widening of the war >> so far, it looks like some of the companies have said, forget it, even with this offer to defend things, we're going to send our ships around the cape of good hope anyway, the long way around africa because they don't want to take the risk. do you anticipate even with this move, that commerce is really at a stranglehold here? >> i think the united states, and there are ten countries that have agreed at this moment to this new maritime capacity

i think there's certainly the capacity to establish security corridors in a way that would restore the confidence of big shipping companies i think what we're hearing from mersk and others is, okay, show us once these things are established, we'll re-evaluate we'll remain flexible, but at the moment, we're not taking any risks and so that's why you've seen them make this decision, which increases very significantly the transport time of goods, particularly goods flowing from europe to asia, and from asia to europe. >> thanks very much for the analysis this morning that helps us understand. we appreciate it >> thank you, becky. >> coming up, an inside look at what top ceos expect next year on ai, on the deal environment, the economy. all with chairwoman and former xerox ceo, ursula burns. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on nbc.

. well, thanksgiving travel in the u.s. was pretty smooth, but are rlines ready for the christmas rush that's about to get going? phil lebeau joins us now with more h hey, >> hey, joe, the airlines say

they are ready and they better be, because we're going to see a big surge in travel over the next, call it 12 to 14 days. here's what's expected 2.8 million passengers every day, and we could see the busiest day ever we've never topped 3 million, that's a distinct possibility overall, up about 16%, compared to last year this year, we're on track to have the busiest year ever in terms of daily passengers that are screened by the tsa, coming in at 2.34 million look at the increase compared to last year, where it was just over 2 million 2021, it was 1.6 million and back into the pandemic, by the way, 2019 was at 2.3 million. so we're slightly ahead of the pace for 2019. is -- now, the airlines say they're ready, but is the system are the airports air traffic control, tsa and faa. they'll hold a press conference

in washington later today where the new head of the faa will say, yeah, we are ready. they've got this many flights that are coming on a daily basis that they are going to have to manage the big surge is going to be this week, thursday and friday then you see a drop-off for christmas and it picks back up shortly after christmas, as you take a look at the airline stocks they've had a nice move here in the last six weeks, but overall, this is a group that is far from its 52-week highs. and by the way, guys, people say to me, what's the difference between this year and last year? staffing levels. there are far more people working for the airlines at the airports for tsa, the faa, et cetera, than we had last year, and it's the most since 2001 so everybody says they're better prepared for the travel rush at the end of this year, we'll find out over the next 14 days. >> yeah, it's not totally -- how much is in their control, you think, phil? like zero? >> oh, you get a bad storm,

there's nothing you can do you get a bad snowstorm that hits new york and boston and philly, i mean, it's just, they can handle it better, hopefully, than they did after christma last year, but, you know, there's not much you can do when you get a really bad storm that just paralyzes an airport. >> which you wonder what is the right thing -- how much fines, you know, reimbursement, then the airlines don't make money, then no one wants to invest in them maybe, you know, i don't know what certain people in the government want. >> a vicious version, joe. >> it is >> utilities should it cost $2,000? >> you do not want to go back to regulation you know this. >> i know, but it's a tough, tough business and i don't hate them, i feel for them i do thank you, phil. >> you bet all right. when we come back, we've got some breaking housing data stay tuned, you're watching "squawk bondnb a cc.

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welcome back to "squawk box," right near on cnbc we are just seconds away from november housing starts and building permits, too. we've been watching the futures this morning, and we've been in

the green all morning. dow futures are actually now up by about 90 points s&p futures up by close to 11. the nasdaq up by about 28 points, or so. we've also been watching treasuries and sitting in that same range with the ten-year still at 3.9%. the two-year at 4.4% rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago, and rick, we're about to get those numbers. >> yes, we are do remember, this is november. october we had pops in both starts and permits and the pop continues. november, starts expected to be up around 1.36 million 1,560,000. that is a big pop! and if we look at permits, similar, similar, but nowhere near the extent. we were expecting 1,465,000, we got 1,460,000. and we had a nice revision to last month from 1,487,000 to

1,498,000. these are seasonally adjusted annualized units let's dig down a little bit. 1,560,000. that is the best read since may. best read since may! and the second best read of the year that is really nice. not much action on the markets on a follow-through side and as i said, permits largely as expected. now, here's the deal if we look at interest rates for the month of november, we could probably get some clues. that was right at the tail end of the 8% we saw in october. we clipped it for the first day of november. then rates started to slide down the range was basically 8% for a nanosecond down to 760 so never got below 7.5%. we know in december, rates are moving lower we may expect bigger pop or continuation of this move. we wanto pay close attention right now, we did see rates move

up just a bit. we were down two basis points, now we're do one basis points in 2s. 3s, ten-year have been down 3. haven't moved much and if you were to look at a chart of ten-year, becky, and this as a technician should jump out, we're hovering at very low interest rates, west going all the way back to the summer and for the last three sessions, today being the third, it'very much a sideways action, hovering right around that 390 or a little bit higher towards 395. there has been no bounce to the ounce in interest rates, bank of japan had no surprises today i can't see anything that's going to reverse some of the pressures of lower interest rates at the moment. the big question is how the long end entually skescapes the rest ofhe yield curve and some of the big cop/bad cop games plg play on the short end by fed governors and federal reserve officials that of course are trying to continue to walk back the good cop/bad cop of powell's

expressionhat the last meeting was all about cutting interest rates. becky, back to you >> that is certainly what it's felt like to me, too, rick, just trying to pu things back on the market's interpretation of what powell said last week when you were taing 8%, you were talking the 30-year mortgage getting -- because i thought i saw -- >> i'm so sorry, yeah. the 30-year mortgage today >> and the 30-year mortgage today, i thought it s sitting just above 7%. we haven't swn it on the now.en yet -- there it is right >> exactly started to come down in ay it's november -- >> yes, it's a lot of movement and i fully suspect that when we get some of the deceer data points that we will coinue to potentially, potentially see a little more activity, although the seasonality issues and the holida of course, may take a bit of a bite out of tse shopping or looking to sell some of the residences. >> ric thank you >> thank you >> steve liesman joins us right now.

he's got more analysis on the data we just got steve, what do you think >> becky, i want to throw some confusion into this. am literally puzzling over this issue because this idea of lower mortgage rates helping out the housg market, i'm trying to puzzle out if this is something the fed wants or something the fed doesn't want and what this means for rates. and i'm gog to give you both sides of it and maybe you can figure out what the more important one is on the one han lower rates and this pop in housing is good for supply, more supply should help bring down or at least attenuate price increases in housing, that's lower fligs yet on the other side of that, there's more economic activity, more growtassociated with housing. this could be one of the those areas which is really just a double-edged sword for the economy and for the federal reserve. if you see these lower mortgage rates -- >> can i >> go ahead. >> i want to weigh in on that. i definitely think the former is the more important aspect of this

>> the supply problems because -- the supply chain, right? how much of the inflation that we've dealt with over the last four years since the pandemic was because of supply ain issues this is another iteration of that, where nobody wants to move because you don't want to get stuck with an mortgage when you're already locked in at a 4% one. you can't double the interest rate that you're paying over that period of time. i think there's a logjam a i think it's an unnatural one and i think that if that gets fixed, from it later.e can kind of flow >> this is how we do things on national televion. we figure them out as they come along. >> that's just my gus. >> the other side of this is that i do know that the federal reserve is counting on a dline in shelter prices in order to bring down the inflation rate. >> right, so they can't do that. this plays into what we're thinking for the rest the year you don't get it unless th happens. happens.on't get it unless this and if the decline in mortgage rates creates a re-acceleration

in home buying, and that create a re-acceleration in home prices, the d doesn't get what it's after >> a second or third iteration of these things. but there is a logjam and it's real >> we need more supply we know that there was a nice article, i guess it was "the journal" the oer day, or "the times," where theyaid, people want to buy, but sellers aren't selling. so you haven't had or figured out even what the market clearing price is going to be in the real estate market and as i pointed out over many, many months here, mortgage rates are high relative to even where they should be with the ten-year they've been 3 percentage points above the 10 typically, they run 2 percentage points above the 10. so there was scope for mortgages to come down, even if the ten-year didn't fall, yet the ten-year fell, so now 's possible we're going to be below 7% se time soon here >> oh, goody ste, i think these are the questions that arenvolved in everything that's going on we spoke earlier this morning with anastasia omarosa, and her

entire theory is based on the fed bringing rates down next year and i think that's the theory of about every market analyst you're talking to right now. >> i would take the fed at their word when they say that the market is overdoing this i think that if you -- we've talked about this, that the fed made a single word chae to their pocy statement the forecasts are not policy, they're simply forecast, and while the average fed official gave three, the market took six. and nobody maybe is better than joe than talking about how the market can over-exaggerate >> but you agree with what rick just said and what i was thinking, too, every fed official we've heard from since then have tried toalk it back. >> they're walking it back they'rright to push back and say, here's what i said. >> and that's for your interpretation >> right >> and why that is is an interesting question i think there still mabe too much money in the system for the fed to get a controlled response to a controlled change in

policy >> okay. steve, thank you >> pleasure. >> when we come back, what some of the world's top ceos expect next year on everything from ai to political disruption. new data after this break. voteodstppw squawk pod on your fari pca a and you can listen name. we'll be right back. thin will go wrong for your customers. but your business can make it right, with watsonx assistant. ai that can help resolve problems by understanding your customer requests with 90 percent accuracy. let's create customer service in service of customers, with watsonx assistant. ibm. let's create.

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welcome back to "squk box," everybody. the futures this morning are indicated higher dow futures up by about 78 points nasdaq futures up by 16. the s&p up by 8. we've been in positive territory all morning long, but have picked up steam as the morning continues. treasu yields around the same level, 3.9% for the ten-year 4.44 for the two-year. and ergy prices have been higher we told you about what's happening the red sea and the moving there for security tions reasons. that has increased the price of wti by 3 cents today, 72.50. joe? >> and some tough in the past few days at least fr the perspective of corporate executives over the weekend. alumna said it willdy fest cancer test-maker grail after a

two-year trust battle with regulators and adobe and sigma called off their $20 billion merger yet a new survey of ceos and institutional investors con conducted finds a majority expects a sizable uptick in m&a. joining us, teneo ceo, endeavor group holdings it's good to see you, ursula thanks for joining us. this isn't -- yeah, we think that there may be more m&a it's a better survey than what some money manager thinks might happen because these are some of the guys and gals that are involved in doing this >> exactly, i think the way we pose this survey, this is the second year that we've done this and we're in the board rooms, we

have over 1600 clients, employees, offices all over the world and we are very close to the ceos we don't just send them a survey and speak to them about the strategies in their business and m&a is clearly an active conversation in board rooms today. 68% of the ceos in that we have surveyed said that m&a is high on their list, and therefore we expect to see a sizable uptick in m&a in 2024 >> and we've seen past periods -- sometimes you almost feel like m&a is offensive -- i mean, i figured i would like to get into ai or whatever's hot over the coming years, you see companies decide to expand that way. but other times, it almost seems defensive that they're forced to do things. how do you separate the two?

>> i think we're seeing both sides here i think, you know, m&a slowed down pretty significantly in 2023 and we're coming out of a time of low interest rates. and r&d is something that's precious to them and companies use m&a for both reasons. one is to grow their business, but the other is to shore up their technology base. and we're seeing both here so i don't think this is like a stumble into this. this is significantly more strategic. where companies, business leaders, boards are looking at ways to increase their talent base, increase their r&d pipelines with, and to expand their business, because prices will be the expectation better for them to do all three of those things through this vehicle. >> so, the -- you got this era of deglobalization, globalization. once again, i'll bet you you've got both, don't you? >> 80% of ceos say that they'll continue to invest in deglobalization, globalization, whatever the word that we want

to use is. 80%. said that they're focused on supply chain, flexibility, and resilience and so therefore, they are moving either talent or supply lines or partnerships more spread out along the world so this is another one where the signal was very clear, question asked, question answered will you continue down this path the answer is, absolutely. not a lot of changes most of the ceos said they're going to continue on the path they already started in 2023 this is good business assurance plans. but also, as i said, it's a good way to access new markets and new technologies and new people. so, this is not a questionable signal at all. >> i wonder how specific you get, though. does india all of a sudden become more attractive than china? does vietnam and some of those -- does south america -- >> oh, check, check.

>> the same time zone. >> check, check, check all three. >> onshoring >> china remains an important trading partner, an important person for us to have relations with you know all of the statements there. india, vietnam, the global south. absolutely, all three of those areas and more are becoming more and more operationally viable for the ceos that we've surveyed >> we've seen, ursula, i don't know whether it's a retrenchment or a rethinking of i don't know, it's like alphabet soup, esg, dei, i think you found that they're going to stay the course, but listen more, talk less >> i think half of it, yes, 92% of ceos said that they are despite the political environment, despite the noise

that goes on everywhere, that they think that they have constituents that require this, that they get the best talent this way, that they engage more clients and employees, et cetera, this way so 92% said that they'll stay the course but they're going to be a little bit more cautious and they're paying attention to the political environment on how they speak about it. not misleading people, but being very clear and being very aligned, mission aligned in their conversations about esg and their actions around esg i think it's actually very, very interesting. this w another strong signal that they've thought deeply about this, they've thought deeply about esg they are trying to stay away from t politics and be more business-focused and busy based in the decisions that they're it's actually, to me, a refreshing sign. >> but on -- i'm just reading from some of the findings, the word "split," that u.s. ceos actually split, half continue

org ing or accelerating while over a third are not retrenching, but re-evaluating. what does that even mean >> 25% or so said that they have to step back and look at everything from the program to how they communicate about the program and the rethinking in some cases is increasing their activities in other cases, it's modifying their activities the strong signal, though, that this is something that most busi businesses believe is core to their futures and core to engaging as many constituents as they possibly can. they have to be careful. >> if you're in college, maybe you should switch from french renaissance poetry to some technology skills, would that be a good idea if you want to be a ceo? what do you think? >> if you look at what the u.s. business-based people talked about from a technology perspective, ai, way up, obviously. ai, not only in understanding and using it in your business,

but also in how you hire, including at the highest levels, including at the board level do we have the right skills in place? people who are familiar with at least ai and technologies in general and get people it's going to be a challenge not only at the college and graduation level, but in the senior levels, as well a 20% jump year over year in what people will -- what business leaders are going to do, how they're going to invest, how important this is to them. ai is now mainstream even if ceos don't know what to do with it, exactly, it is mainstream it's a conversation you have every day. >> i'm going -- so i don't know. maybe i'll go take some coding courses at fight or something? >> i think you may be -- i think it may be lost to you, joe i think you should stay where you are. >> i'm thinking i'm an old dog i have trouble with old tricks ursula, thank you. very interesting thanks >> thank you very much >> okay. >> in the meantime, google

reaching a nine-figure anne-trust settlement agreemen with the united states and consumers. that case centered on accusations that google overcharged users through unlawful restrictions on the distribution of android apps unnecessary fees for transactions within the app. as part of the settlement, the tech gnt will allow for greater competitioin its play app store and pay $700 million most of thatill go toward a fund for consumers while $70 million will go to the states. google did not admit wrongdoing and the settlement still needs a judge's final approval we were talking earlier, if you're waiting for your take in this, two bucks. >> $2.00 i was trying to figure out -- i have made $2.00 bets, becky. >> i bet, recently. >> there's no bet too small. it's ridiculous.

i don't know why >> it puts me in a bad mood wh i lose >> when you lose $2.00 >>eah. coming up, top stocks and opening bell on wall street. features right now have strengthened throughout the morning. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc ank account with quickbooks money, now earns 5% apy. 5% apy? that's new! yup, that's how you business dferently. with gold bond... you can age on your own terms. retinol overnight means... the smoothing benefits of retinol. are now for your whole body. plus, fast-working crepe corrector diminishes wrinkled skin in justwo days. gold bond. champion your skin. that first time you take a step back. i made that. with your very own online store. i sold that. and you can manage it all in one place. i built this. and it was easy, with a partner that puts you first. godaddy.

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a little more than half an hour until opening bell. dom chu joining us you see charlie with his chip in do you see his response? do you know what i'm talking about? >> that was amazing and the fact that he's outdriving half the field as a 14-year-old >> who should that surprise? >> nobody. we'll start with a quick check on the biggest stock out there apple, just a fraction at this point, maybe half a percent or so roughly a million shares of volume this is after losing nearly a percent yesterday. they did surprise some when it decided to pause sales of the latest apple watch models right before christmas in response to an intellectual property

disagree it's having with a firm called masimo. apple is going to halt online sales of the series 9. the in store sales will halt after sunday a couple of analyst calls getting attention. adobe up maybe 50% or so, about 25 shares. 2.5% gain after abandoning the takeover for figma analysts at barclay's boosted the target price to 700 from 680. we'll cap things off with shares of chewy, up north of 3% now, almost 5%. over 100,000 shares of volume. getting initiated with a buy rating and 27% they believe chewy is relatively insulated from the pressures of higher inflation on consumers.

becky, i can attest to that. having two dogs, i spend more on them than i would myself sometimes. >> yeah, dogs are good cats, too. i found myself getting stockings for the accounts this year. >> there you go. we spend. joining us for more on the markets is sylvia jablonski, ceo and cio of defiance etfs >> good morning, becky. >> we're watching the futures and it feels like a melt-up again and again. how are you feeling about the markets right now. does this feel like something that continues into 2024 >> i'm feeling good about the markets right now. we're talking about a potential eighth straight week of upward movement i think the fed set us up to have a good party. it feels like santa claus is coming to down, the dovish fed rates going higher

on top of that, you have tailwinds. seasonality, consumer spending wages are still high enough, spending is still good enough. there's a lot of power behind the economy. corporate earnings are good. i think we'll finish up pretty strong this year. >> i don't know if you heard rick and steve earlier they were having this discussion around the data release half an hour ago and just saying it feels like every fed official since has come out and tried to walk the market back and jawbone them back down to say you may have heard -- you may not have heard what we were really saying in that messaging, you could get three rate cuts next year, but you might not. >> yeah. for lack of better words, i feel like they always do that any time the market takes a message to be a positive one they always kind of walk it back i think if we look at what's going on, inflation is coming down, you have the price of oil and gas coming down. prices of food are certainly not going up that number is getting closer to

that 2.5%, if not 2% whether it's because the fed has already raised rates so high or because the economy is slowing, i think the inflation problem is arguably getting soft. i think the market wants a little more than the fed is predicting we hear four to five cuts. they're talking about three. there could be some pullback given what happens there the fact is inflation is coming down if jobs don't surprise to the upside, we are getting some softening. i think it will be sort of status quo into next year. every year we've been saying so far this is going to be the year where corporate america is going to crash, harped landing, no soft landing here we are. corporations are figured out how to digitize, cut back costs, deal with the higher rates the markets are sort of thriving and stabilizing at least. >> it's a message a lot of people are hoping for, maybe we're finally coming through the other side of this maybe we've seen the trough when it comes to corporate earnings

maybe things will be improved from here. what worries you what could increase volatility >> so it's really interesting because we keep going into new years with a feeling of perhaps stability and that we're coming to the end of something. then we get a geopolitical issue coming out of left field i think what scares me is if there's some sort of factor, whether it's too much spending or geopolitical issues or perhaps jobs, any kind of number that sets inflation higher or gives macroeconomic data to the fed that would lead us to perhaps not raise but not have any cuts next year, i think if that happens, the market just kind of stays in this range-bound situation we're in now which isn't so bad we're ending on a high you need rates to come down, need corporate earnings to grow and things like that any pe of deviation in those numbers i think sets us back. >> okay. sylvia, thank you.

>> thank you ve a great day. >> let's get ainal check on the markets before we hand things over. futures are still in the green dow futures up by 73 s&p futures up by 8, nasdaup by 20. this does it fors today, but we'll be back here tomorrow. >> oh, please. flo, no! please i'm begging you. >> anywhere is good. we're still here. >> anywhere above ground is good. >> that is correct we'll e you tomorrow right now it's time for "squawk on the street. ♪ good tuesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber fed officials pushing back on the notion of multiple rate cuts our roadmap begins with records watch. s&p up about