rumblgs that commercial real could have a harder year next year we'll have to see how that goes. u.s. existing home sal tomorrow, as wel the conference board condence survey, as well. so, lots twatch. that's goingo do it for us here at "overte. >> "fast money" starts now live from thnasdaq market site in the heart of new york city times square,his is ast money. here is what is on tap tonight the dow and nasdaq up nine straight days, while the s&p is up eight of the past nine sessions, and is within spitting distance of a record high. are investors too bulled up for their own good plus, meta's mojo. from last year's facebook face plant to this year's insta-revival, even with the stock up nearly 200%, one firm thinks meta is a top pick for next year. that is our call of the day.

and later, a studs and duds edition of would you rather is, from entertainment to autos to retail to industrials, the traders will face off on this year's leaders and lag guards and who will win in 2024 i'm tyler mathieson in for melissa lee. glad you can join us, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq market site on the desk tonight -- tim seymour at an undisclosed location, karen finerman to my right, dan nathan, and guy adami, as well the s&p rising nearly 0.6%, closing less than a percentage point from its all-time high the benchmark index is up nearly 16% from its october lows. and is almost 25% higher on the year meanwhile, the dow closed at its own record for a fifth day in a row. the small cap russell 2,000 led the charge, though, settling at its best level since august of 2022

the question now is, is it too late to get onboard with this bull rally or is there more eam left in the engine guy, are investors -- >> hello, tyr. >> hello, sir, thank you for the beverage that you gave to me i'm delighted to have it much from the fed next year?o >> that's a great question i think the answer is yes, but i would have said that 20% ago o so in the s&p 500, that would have been incorrect. the market is now up in 16% in remarkable days, which is we can talk about the move from lows to highs in t russell, but what i look at, and i know tim is probably looking at the samehing, relative strength index, rsi, is now north of 81 the last time it was this high was probably september of 2020 and that doesn't go particularly well for the market at that time it doesn't mean the market is going down in a straight lin but it means in terms of sentiment,e are very overbought in levels that we haven't seen in three or so years. >> tyler, if i go back to late

2021, the last time e fed signaled a pivot, they were going to rai interest rates, well, here we are, in december of 2023, the stock market has rallied 16% off of tho lows in late october i go back to 2021, again, that december, stock market reallied 7.5%, the s&p made aew high on, i think, on the second trading day of the year in 2022. in the face -- >> that's right. >> in the face of the fed, what they were going to do. you asked the question, are investors pricing in too much? i understand, what i think, is going to come back and a pull-back, because i think ultimately when the fed cuts, it's not going to be for the great reasons that a lot of people are imputting right now into the markets, but you know, sometimes markets you have a way of doing things you don't expect them, that's why i bring back to two years ago and the reaction here right now, it feellike there is no end in sig to how far stocks can rally we're going to have a headline, new all-time highs forhe s 500, your question, though, what do you do right there?

do you chase it? i'm not sure >> karen >> yeah, it's a tough question, i an, i feel like this, what's happening right no is just a chase, because money managers are behind whatever their benchmark might be and they think they have to be invested, and it's not about where things are tring and whether we're going to be in a recession, any of that, it's just, how do i show at the end of the years, you know, performae? this is sort of, i don't know what kind of top it is, but some sort of top. i don't know what to do about things when your own stock is up 18% in a short amount of time, you think, well, that makes sense. when the other stocks you don't own, you feel like, wow, this is really getting tough so, there's some of both going on here. but i think -- i always say, if you went home long, it's as you bought it at the close i essentially bought erythin at thelose herand i'going to hang opit i think thfed is sort of in, i don't know if it's an at the

money put. it could be the recession happens, wgo down, and then the fed's there, but for the moment, i'm staying long the one thing i do really like, though, is the broadening out of the rally, right we've been talking for awhile about the -- >> small caps taking part. >> today, a big outperforman by the russell 2,000 i like that. that looks healthy to me some of this literally -- some charts that are straight up, that looks less healthy. >> russell 2,000 at levels not since august 22. nasdaq 100, an all-time gh tim, is it time for small ps, if you haven't gotten in is there still good bargains there? >> well, i d't know about bargains, but it certainly about time small caps have underperformed for so long and it's been so significant that they were kind of due i fit somewhere in the middle of the comments so far, meaning i can ok at the broadening of the market and say, this i great, i'm also very happy to see the relative strength of the leadership also continue and let's be clear, i mean,

nasdaq's at all-time highs, we're about to get there and the coming from the semiconductor space and the megacap stocks is what you need. the combination of both of them, i think, is great news f markets. back to the fed, we hit 3.99 on december fed fund futures. that's 135 basis points, 140 basis points, 150 basis points away in terms of cuts, something bad is going to happen, i think. based upon the economye have today, which is one that's reasonably strong, a labor market that's recently close to all-time lows in unemployment, where we have -- we know what's going on in manufacturing and leading indicars not great, but there's other parts of the ecomy that are doing quite well, so -- this wk, to me, and last week, but -- we had savita from bank of america on last night, some of the keys t me is that the street and -- both the analyst community, i think investors are getting comfortable with earnings growth in '24 and that's whayou have to hang your hat on.

i'm not saying we're going to that's forecasted, but that's th the part of this that yoeed. and that's the part of this after three-quarters of an earnings recession, i think where markets have to believe in '24. >> interesting, if we can put up a russell chart in the form of the iwm, put up a five-year chart, our crack sta in ec can do that. i think we closed a little north of 200 today the same top we made, i think in august of 22, go back to this january, if you want to extend that out a little bit, i think it will become a lot clearer to tim's point, the russell made its all-time high in november of 2021, though it's rallied off the lows, we are still not close to the levels we saw way back then i only bring that up because if you think like i think the unemployment rate is going to move up over the next six months or so, in my opinion, it's very hard to be bullish small cap stocks in this virlt

>> yeah, there was data, this was the shortest period that the iwm, the russell 2,000 went from a 52-week low to a 52-week high. that's happened over 30 trading days we're seeing that in the s&p 500. i'm just -- i have citi bank right here up and this stock was trading at 38 1/2 on october 27th, it closed today near $51 it's about to make new 52-week high that just reeks of a chase, right? do you want to buy sething that's made that sort of move that was so out of favor not too long ago and again, we had the ceo of jpmo jpmorgan, probably right before thattock was makin-- this was citi bank, before they were making new lows, be prepared for 5%, 6%, 7% of fed funds for awhile a lot of folks got a lot of ings wrong, and i guess my point is, after you have such a paraboc move, it doesn't make sense to chase stories like this that he moved that quickly

and the same goes for the russell. >> what should i do with my money? is it time to shove it in? are there sectors that you like? >> i'm actually long banks i would push back on dan's comments about citi bank, only six, seven weeks ago, it never should have been at 37 that was where the anomaly was, not where it is right now, when you think about, as a price to earnings, certainly a price to tangible book. nothing comes close to citi valuation. jpmorgan, that's one i'm comfortable owning here. i think -- there's -- i like the iwm here even though it's had a big run could it pull back yes. but i think there's still a lot of room between where the iwm historically has traded and where the s&p 500 has traded on a price to earnings basis and over time in the 25 years since the iwm's been around, it's outperformed lagged recently, until the very last push that we've had, so, i'm staying long that. >> tim, where would you be putting money now? >> well, i think there's a

couple parts of the economy that we don't spend a ton of time talking about that are also working. we had that u.s. steel news last night, but you look at integrated miners, bhp, rio tinto, and the ones that are specialized in copper and gold like freeport. they've had an outsized move to the market since the cpi number in november. easing inflation is very good for the resources community. if you have the kind of demand, and i think oil suffers more from demand concerns, but a weaker dollar, a dollar that's down 5% from that peak that we had when rates peaked, around november 1st i think it's great for the resources community. i think there are structural issues for wanting to own copper and the integrated miners are also well it is situated japan was up 1.5%, i think japan continues to go higher latin america, which has some emerging market dynamics that are actually very beneficial

here, especially at a time, even when china is not strong, brazil is strong on the resources front. and i think there are places to -- i think gold, back to miners, gold's about to get to a fresh push through to multi-year all-time highs gold miners have underperformed, a big move by the gdx today. i think you're going to continue to get that. i would get back to some of the things that karen was saying we had nasty, nasty bear markets in a lot of real economy stuff going into this period, so, i love the fact that the market's broadening i think some of these companies are pretty cheap and i think there's an opportunity to trade higher if we were not getting the outperformance of the leadership, though, i'd be concerned. and while we have both, markets go higher. >> all right, and we're going to talk about the miners in a little bit. meantime, we have an earnings alert fex tumbling on an earnings miss the company also lowering revenue guidance for fisca 2024 frank hold land here to takeus inside the numbers >> hey, tyler.

lowering the full-year guidance one factor weighing on fedex also, a big mess on margin for the express business air deliveries and express just continues to see lower demand and lower pricing power. ground, the bright spot here revenue growth beat on margins the company won business from u u.p.s. the freight business, that's the ltl trucking business,t power.ted from more pricing fedex also benefits from the bankruptcy of yellow questionable how sustainable those gains e. fedex said it achieved $1.8 billion in permanent savings onhe call starting at 5:30 stern, investors will be listening for progress and how the integrate of the three business units is goin that process expected toe completed in june of 2024. tyler? >> a right, frank, thank you have much. let'trade fedex, karen, what do you think

>>ell, so, i had been in fedex and switched to u.p.s. fedex was -- they were in the middle of a very nice turnaround, right? the stock was starting to sort of get some lo, it went from trading at a low double digits multiple to something 15, 16-ish or so. i'm kind of surprised with the magnitude the selloff in the afterhours they didn't miss by much, 20 cents, and yet they are down, what, $23 or so, give or take. >> yeah. that's a very big multiple on -- yeah, it's a ms, for sure, but it's just sort of harkens back to -- do you harken or harken back >> i think you harken back >> so when fedex wou have a couple of good quarters and then a bad quarter, put out guy dance and not really make it you are getting multiple compression here, because maybe the credibility, may it's back to maybe manager in the penalty boa little bit u.p.s., which i own, down in the, you know, some of the same reasons, it will probably have a tougher quarter. >> dan >> yeah, i mean, listen, stock

rallied 25% into the print, right? when you say they missed on a few percentage points and the guidance wasn't better than expected, i mean, there's a lot in the stock at that point and karen is talking about a stock trading 15 times, growing at high teens, you know what i mean, that is a cheap stock. but i guess things are getting priced to perfection relative to themselves, sometis relative to their peers, after you have and i actually think sort of price action, we'rgoing to see a lot of as we get into januar the higher we go, i think the smaller the sort of disappointments are, the higher the expectation, the more likely we are to hit thsell button, ask questions later. so, thisould be a bit of a precursor. i kn we have nike tomorrow that had a big run, too. i'm really interested to see how a lot of these stocks and this sort of euphoric moments >> my son had to write a report about nike, which means i had to write -- >> let's hope his teacher is not

a "fast money" fan >> mr. wemmer -- mr. wemmer. yeah -- >> senior year, we can give the kid a break. >> not how it works. if you are going to miss, don't miss on express. that's half your business. forget about renue we can nitpick of what the street was is half expecting. 1.7%, the street was at 3.6% yeah, ground was fine, freight was fine but to ansr karen's question, why are they whacking the stock like it is because when you miss with your biggest business unit, with margins being cut half, that's concerning. where do youuy the stock well, i think it's trading $258 here, i'm going back to try to find a level the ma suggests $250 is the level and we'll see. i thought the stock k0u8dcould challenge the prior high, what did it get up to, $285 it didn't get close. $250 probably makes sense. all right, let's move on

ming u from thyearf efficicy to best yeaever that's wha2023 is turning into for meta's stock, and thatot me alysts king a new year's resolutn onhis name what they see for the soal climber, nex >>plus, cheap chip check could semistandoutnvideo bri yomore banfoitbuck against its competitors? we're going to surround the chip trade when "fast money" returns in two minutes you're watching "fast money," here on cnbc money," here on cnbc we'll be right back. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. get iphone 15 pro on us.

(♪♪) meet gold bond daily healing. a powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals, and smooths dry skin. with 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins. and... new gold bond healing sensitive. clinically shown to heal & moisturize

dry,ensitive skin. gold bond. loving this pay bump in our allowance. wonder where mom and dad got the extra money? maybe they won the lottery? maybe they inherited a fortune? maybe buried treasure? maybe it fell off a truck?

maybe they heard that xfinity customers can save hundreds when they buy one unlimted line and get one free. now i can buy that electric scooter! i'm starting a private-equity fund that specializes in midcap. you do you. visit xfinitymobile.com today. welcome back to "fast money," everybody. u ubs nami meta a top pick of the year trading just below its 2021 high at the start of the year, mark zuckerberg promised this would be, quote, meta's year of e fish sip. now the stock is on track for its best year ever ubs calling meta one of its top buys in the megacap internet ace, saying the stock could rise 20% from here karen t karen, this is a holding of yours. >> yesi think it's not expensiv

at all i still like the story i think it's still holding together, even though it was the year of efficiency, they were also spending a lot of money, though, and i think we could see a little more efficiency next year in maybe some more revenue generation, as opposed to cuts i think that the ad market is strong, the valuion here is ally not stretched, it just seems like it is -- this was trading at one time at 10 or 11 times earnings with a ton of cash i mean, insane levels. so, that it's back here, it should be. the business is bigger than it was at its peak. i'm hanging onto it, but at some point, you have to hedge some or sell upside calls. >> everybody talks about nvidia, but this stock has done fabulously underappreciated, i think, for the year >> even though it's a huge year, ye right, i think so, it's back to where it should have been. >> tim, thoughts >> i'm long it and i -- like everyone, i can't argue that there's not an interesting valuation.

i will say that the dynamics around their a.i. exposure, in other words, these are one of the companies that truly is letting a.i. work for them, especially into reels and their core businesses. i think facebook, meta, whatever we're calling it is doing great in a world where we don't have pressure on advertisers and the cyclicality around the media space that we had at the end of '21. meta wasn't just -- concerns about where we were going in the netherverse, but it was about people being conceed about ad spend. that's going to happen again if all the doom and gloom on the economy that people are talking about comes about. this ione of those names in the meantime that's breang out. it's not apple it's really amon, it's met and it's google within megacap tech that actually continues to go higher. >> it's traded extraordinarily well it has to get througthe august 2021 highs, 375 or something

and i point this out just to point it out, and maybe it's schedules, i don't know. i guess i can go to the google machine and look since the beginning of nember, mark zuckerberg has sold almost $300 million worth of facebook stock, which is just something to take into consideration earnings wise, 20 times isot expensive at all despitthe run, as karen mentioned. report at the end of january just pointing it out >> and look, that last chart was very interesting if we can flip back to that la chart, where it began the year, if we can go back, you can see the mountainous ruise. ye, there's the year to date, up -- >> that's better >> that's a two-ye >> new graphics package is tremendous >> look at where it was at the start of '23 and where it is today, from -- i don't know, that's 100 to 320. 190% there we go. got it i can read these charts. stick with me, okay? >> hopefully your son's teacher can read them, as well, because he's watching right now.

>> somebody called him, believe me all right, now to another big winner coinbase up 5% today compass point hiking i price target on that stock and reiterating its buy rating coinbase jumping 120% in just cnbc's kate rooney is here what kateriving this monster move, partially thanks to bitcoin's rally. thostwo tend to really trade in tandem. and this drop in interest rates helping unprofitable stocks and promise about a bitcoin etf being approved i spoke to brian armstrong, he pushed back on the abrokerages here's what he said about that >> we about the massive pools of capital out there that are in endowments and institutions, pence funds, they should all be all to participate in this new asset class. so, i think it will be a

compliment we'll see large new pools of capital come into crypto i think that's why we've seen bitcoin prices up 90% year to date, and there's going to be a huge institutionalegment, they they want to own other crypto asse >> also talked about coinbase adsting to falling interest rates. a third of coinbase's top line in third quarter came from interest revenue armstrong saying theare prepared, they have multiple revenue streams, it's not just interest or traing. tyler? >>ate, thank you let's trade this name, coinbase. dan? >> tough one here. i mean, listen there were no shortages of coinbase reasons not to own if you want to own bitcoin, you can own boitcoin why own the one that has pricing pressure and regulatory, all at sort of stuff >> why not just own the asset? >> yeah, so, to see this company perform the way it has, to see the balance eet they have, it's great i'm not so sure we're going to see, when there's etfs that

exist and how many retail are really interested in paying the high fees and crossing and owning them in a crypto wallet versus basically jt owning an etf that looks like an equity and putting it in their i.r. ad. the stock up, doesn't make sense to chase it here i guess i wod rather chase bitcoin if you believe in that move >> tim, your thoughts? >> i'm long coinbase and i've been long it, you kw, over the last few months my view is not only on the bitcoin move and the correlations, think the regulatory dynamics are probably upside and i won't spulate where the lawyers and thregulators are, but the fact is that you are getting more institutional adoption and a lot more people onboard. ultimately, that's great for the asset class. if coinbase is the on-ramp to the dital record, at least one of them, and let's be clear, in 1.0, they were the on-ramp

that means the entire asset class is well d. agreed easy clearly, etf, bitcoin etfs, people will not need to own directly, but they will own other digital assets that's where there's new frontier , clearly, they are one of the clear ways to pl that, and if you remove regulatory and b bitcoin trades higher, coinbase is going higher. >> tim, thank you. i just want to report from the home front, the e mail has arrived. did dad just call me out >> maybe we can help -- listen, maybe we can help him out. maybe we can, as a team here, we can do a zoom call forhe class and sort of aswang any concerns. >> i think that's a great idea maybe we'll knock around nike a little bit ler, just so that when -- >> yeah, sure. >> put iout there. you did this to yourself >> i did -- i'm a -- >> why knew someone would be watching

all right, wilet'a lomore "fast" come to. looking for a deal in th semispace? so are our traders the chp chip standing out among the competion, and what options markets are saying about the next namset to report. plus, it was a big year for a lot of stocks, but not everyone came along for the ride the divergence between a couple of industry leaders this year may surprise you but which should youet on in 2024 ahead.aders give their picks, you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities,

while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com

welcome back to "fast money," everybody. wall street loves nvidia the average analyst price target implies 33% more upside in that one, and stunningly, nvidia is still the cheapest of the big three chip makers. trading at a lower forward pe than both intel and amd. dan, is p.e., forward p.e., the way to look at these stocks and to value them? >> well, it wasn't before the earnings estimates kind of caught up to where the stock was. it was just kind of a harder game i've gotten ma things wrong this year, onef which was this and the way it would grow into this valuation, but right now, if you are buying this stock, which has been basing between $400 and $500 for almost the last five months or so, you have to believe that the earnings expectations for next year are too low, right like, there's going to be further estimate revisions and what i think -- one of the reasons we've seen this churn

and one of the reasons we're seeing an amd play catchup, especially since they've introduced some competitive product is they think there's going to be pricing pressure, other competitor pressures when it relates to market shafr and maybe -- maybe the market doesn't mature the same way folks think right now. if you want to continue to own this stock or you think that the numbers are too low for next year, i just think the landscape is going to look very different for nvidia next year than it did this year, and again, a lot of lot of things wrong -- >> better or worse >> i think it's going to be tougher. doesn't mean the stock's not going to go higher here's a great example this was a really hard year, one of the worst fundamental years for tesla, this year, and the stock's up nearly 100% on the year sometimes there's a disconnect >> i don't view this as really so much as a disconnect. i think we are still early on in the story, we always talk about picks and shodicks and shovm s picks and shohovels of a.i. this is the center of that theory and i think that it's a trading

stock, though. normally, i'm in something for the long-term, we've seen this one run up a couple of times after they announced that g gigantic quarter and the expectations of, you know, just the monumental shift in their revenues, and i think it's somewhat of a trading stock. they're not going to report earnings again until february. i wouldn't be surprised if it ran up higher into that, but it's almost like, no matter how good their quarter is, it just doesn't -- can't live up to the excitement that -- people see this as the next, i don't know, the holy gra, i guess, and so, i'm long it, i probably would sell before earnings but that not for a little while. >> it seems to hav-- the excitement does build into the earnings and then there's this moment where it deflates >> yes it's sort a buy the rumor, sell the news >> i remember being with you in august rht befortheir earnings and it was xaktdly that went up to $513 or something -- >> right and then again the last quarter. >> you are correct and the stock, you're right, i mean, i think that evening it traded to $516 and a month or so

later, a little more than that, south of $400. >> right >> listen, i have different numbers for amd, it doesn't matter next year's numbers, but to your point about exuberance, people have gotten themselves way offsides on the stock now a number of different times now. they reported a nth and a half, two months ago, the stock closed at $97. we had a conversation on the desk and we talked about how people are offsides here i don't think get back to $139 as ickly as it has, but this is probably tding at nine times earnings -- nine times revenue to t extent that even means anything but you're going to get to levels where pple are going to get ry excit in earnings and going to do the same mistake again. i think you own the stock by the end of the month, and we'll have another conversation >> dan can't speak to this, because we're going to move on >> i apologize >> you're okay, right? you're not offended, are you

we move on >> he stopped talking. >> nothing to say. >> you said i can't speak to it. meanwhile, micron, another chip maker feeling the love from the street key bank naming it a top idea thanks to its a.i. exposure. the company reports after the bell tomorrow. and options traders are feeling bullish. mike khouw now with the action hey, mike, what are you seeing >> so, the options market implying a move of 4.9%. saw nearly double its average daily call volume today. one of the busier contracts we saw with a march 82 1/2 calls, essentially at the money calls over 12,000 of those traded for a little over five bucks a contract buyers of those arobviously betting this one could go higher now, t company did have a little bit of a preannouncement, good news couple weeks a, so, that obviously is one of the reasons that the stock has seen a run here and this is more oa commodity chip play than nvidia or amd at this time. >> all right, mike, thank you for the insight. we're going to move along. coming up, the ultimate would you rather our traders pit the best

performers of 2023 against their not so great competition so, who will win these "fast money" faceoffs? stick around to find out plus, mining stocks striking gold today tim was talking about them earlier. we'll dig in on some names seeing the biggest moves and tell you how to extract some profits of your own. more "fast money" right back after you. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" we'rback right after this. but what if you. (tense music) stop! you work hard. it's time for a bank that'll work hard for you. everbank performance savings is built to put your money to work with some of the ghest rates in the country. going, that's what got you where you want to be. we're the partners for your next move. everbank. advantage, you. what is cirkul? cirkul is

the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com.

welcome back to "fast money," everybody. stocks climbing again today, keeping hopes for an eight-week win streak alive the major indexes all up about a half percent, with the s&p nearing a record high. the dow and nasdaq both on nine-day win streaks russell 2,000, monstrous december so far. small cap index climbing about 12% so far this month, and it is early. shares of ge up nearly 2%. that stock trading at its highest level since october of 2017 and affirm surging more than 15% after it announced an expanded partnership with walmart shares there up more than 420% this year.

but still down nearly 50% over the past two years what do we think of affirm holdings, tim? >> i think the business model doesn't make sense at 5.50 fed funds. it makes sense, you know, gnificantly lower. it doesn't surprise me, the move in the stock, with interest rates plummeting doesn't surprise me the move with a wall smamart deal. any deal with walmart is a game changer with anyone, especially someone looking for a consumer that is probably going to be a little over their skis and wants to pay lathe later this is a great name to be fading names like this, initiate short positions at least in companies that are highly exposed to consumer credit, that financing costs made sense yesterday, but not tomorrow. no, i'm not buying this move i'm a major seller of it >> very interesting. private credit powerhouses like the carlisle group, ares management, blackstone, catching a bid in a big way this year,

even amid rising interest rates. but with a fed pivot and lower yields coming into view, what is the impact on the red hot asset class? leslie picker has some answers hi, leslie >> hey, tyler. yeah, 2023 has been a near perfect backdrop for private credit the asset class benefits from higher yields, because they can generate bigger spreads on the floating rate loans they make, and the potential for higher capital rules and uncertain macro backdrop have really hamstrung the more traditional banks from certain kinds of loan making, providing an opportunity for private credit managers. but 2024 is a bit more of a question mark. pitch book in a new report says a soft-landing scenario comes with the, quote, greatest risk as capital flowing into the space has created a lot of competition just as base rates are expected to stabilize lower. the firm noted the dirth in deal-making has limited ways private credit firms can spend its $400 billion in dry powder

but others say the grass is not necessarily greener in a hard landing scenario, despite a coinciding valuation decline and win knowing of competition for private credit managers in that scenario i spoke with a lead analyst with goldman who says the biggest risk to private credit is large losses, not having a severe credit event is a good thing for private credit so, in other words, a soft landing wouldn't be a huge tailwind for the industry, but it wouldn't be a big dampener, either tyler? >> all right, leslie, thank you. let's trade some of the private credit players, or some of the banks that are in that sort of competitive space. karen? >> i'm married to a private creditor, actually, so i don't really trade the space >> yeah. >> but i think what she talked about, a soft landing is okay, no landing is great, but what really has to happen, though, for all this private credit money to come in to put to use is private equity needs to be able to do deals so, they need capital structures that work, they need prices of

equities that work, or private companies, so that, to me, is a critical component, as well. private equity's had a tough time of la >> yeah. >> better they do, the better prate credit is. >> carlisle's had its biggest run it's h in quite some time. harvey schwartz took over, i want to say february of 3. he will implement a an that i kn that, because i'm not dropping names, i've known him since our time at goldman sachs together, i believe in him, and i believe the backdrop favors carlisle in a meaningful way here >> broeden out to the bigger banks, to the banks generally >> when you look at thbottom left, upper right for these, the opportunities they have, they are tang the best and the brightest, like, away -- from the banks -- >> yeah.te credit people it's just night and day. if you are in our net work, you hear this every day. this is not where the smartest young people -- >> it's been the hot place >> and listen, that actually should be a tailwind, you know,

in my opinion, because there's going to be a lot of innovation. to care'skaren's poin i don't tk this kind of lets up any time soon, because i n't think the banks are equipped to do this business right now >> tim jump in. >> this is all great, it's been a great time there's obviously a lot of really talented people those firms are all talking about it, including karen's husbands, are some of the most sophisticad guys on wall street if we get ywhere close to the kind of move people think in the economy, a lot of the companies that are recipients of prite credit funding a in a big problem. and i think ifhere's -- there's a loof vehicles out there where i thk it's not as easy to see what you own in this environment. so, look, two months ago, i think people were really concerned about private credit, you looked at the articles talking about this ticking time bomb st because yields have gone down on the ten-ye doesn't really change a dynamic where we're still 400, 500 basis

points higher in terms of financing costs. for a lot of companies that don't make mon in this environment. so, that the other side of this the people that have made big businesses here are the artest people in the room, and they've got a huge business and they're ve smart about who they lend to, but there are, you know, there's an ermous exposure across private credit thats less transparent and a lot of people don'tnow what they're playing in so, just know what sand x you're playing in and know the liquidity of the sand box you play in. >> tim, ank you. it> and coming up, can you dig these stocks sure can. catching our traders' ey, so, which stock should you svel into your portfolio? we'll deba that one next. plus, would you rather america's favorite game. we're going to hit some of the biggest leaders and laggards in 2023, winners or sinners, you should be watching, when "fast money" returns we're back in two.

welcome back to "fast m money," everyone freeport, bhp, other metals

miners with some nice moves higher today the gdx gold miners etf also up nearly 10% over the past week you are looking at this move, guy. >> yeah, i think it can continue i'll say this. what's happened, i think, historically is, people have been reticent to buy golmining stocks in the face of gold rallying becse they believe it's going to be short-lived i'm t going to get caught up in it, i'm not going to get faked out. gold made an all-time high, only to reverse $100. gold miners did not participate. bugold's held in there relatively well. bank of japan is sticking with negative interest rates, you see what's going on in the ten-year here gold has found its footing, i think the commodity trades higher and i think there's a huge catchup trade in the underlying equities, in the form of the miners. >> tim final thoughts on gold and the miners >> gold is, if youre looking at 20-year charts, it's the best chart you can find, and it tells you the story why gold continues to be bid higher

everything that the environment, and i know karen says -- you used to be able to find every reason to go out and buy gold, but the reason why you have a lower growth environment, an environment where inflation is falling and maybe the fed is getting easier and more concerned about some of the things that have people bung gold, this is that time. >> all right, tim, thankou. and coming up, it is the battle of the industries will it be deere wh the headbutt or cat with the claws we'll have more tough questions in two minutes. and here's a sneak peek at the cramer cam jim chatting with the ceo of the makeup maker oddity tech adtch that full interview on "m money." more "fast" in two minutes

icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot. all right. 60 seconds to draw the perfect gift. what's it gonna be?

a bottle of don julio, 1942, delivered. delivered th drizly. gifting without the guessing. drizly. you're probably not easily persuaded to switch delivered th drizly. gifting without the guessing. mobile providers for your business. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75% a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers? did we peak your interest? you can get two unlimited lines for just $30 each a month. there are no term contracts or line activation fees. and you can bring your own device. oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for you. it's not just possible, it's happening.

all right, welcome back to "fast money. the end of the year just around the corner, and we thought it would be good -- a great time to look at some of 2023's winners and losers and with some big divergences between arch rivals across industries we wondered which would you rather add to your portfolio we're looking at them all, from discount retailers to streamers and let's play the game. first up, retail walmart popping almost 10% this

year while target is down more than would you rather walmart or target, tim, you go first. >> this is would you rather, i own them both. i would walmart over target here, just because it's -- target has clawed back 41 points between the two companies in the last six weeks it was so oversold on a pair basis, and these are two great pairs to trade target wickedly outperform for a couple of years before walmart has dominated 65% outperformance it's a 41% move off that bottom. i own walmart here >> karen, your thought >> yeah, this is a tough one, i own them both, but i also had on the pairs trade long target, short walmart. just because the discrepancy in the price to earnings, we might have a chart of that, it might have been up yes, there it is, was so wide, see how wide that was? >> look how wide >> and look how narrow it is it's time to take that trade off. target is cheaper, but walmart

deserves to be more expensive. this is a super tough one. i will just talk to my book, i am long. more target than walmart >> all right next up, the streamers netflix soaring almost 68% this year meanwhile, disney up just 8% would you rather netflix or does ee, dan? >> i would probably rather disney and one of the reasons, bob iger'sack at the company, a lot of initiatives, a lot of moving parts right now, but the fact that you ha nelson peltz, he's still trying to agitate for some change. they jusadded james gorman of morgan stanleyo the board, i just think that something probably positive happens between iger and peltz ithe new year, and you might see some outperformance on a relative basis to a netflix i know people think there are a lot of moving parts here, but ultimately, if i hado play would you rather, it's does knee >> guy >> i'll play it and i' say netflix. i understand the biest gripe i think about netflix now is valuation they're going to surpass disney+ in 2024 in termsf ad revenue,

think about itkable, if you where as disney's problems are vast and robust. so, if the only problem with netflix is ralvaluation, i'll sc with netflix here. >> let's look at the automakers. sla up 108%. dan mentioned it earlier general motors is up about 6%. dan, are you going to surprise us here? >> i'm going to surprise you, but i'm actually not going to play that game that well earlier this year, i made a stupid comment on this show and you can say -- >> be specific >> which one okay and it was something about, 100 years, gm is still going to be around and tesla's not i think what gm did this year by dialing back their ambitions in evs, it's going to put traditional auto in a tough spot that being said, on tesla, i've been very bearish on the stock and it's gone up a lot, as i just mentioned another thing that i've been wrong about. but the fundamentals have been bad and i've been right on the fundamentals, the market share issues and some of thei issues and china and the lake next year, i think their

fundamentals probably bottom out -- >> tesla >> tesla's do, but i think it probably happens from lower levels at some point maybe 150 or so. >> karen >> i'm a valuation girl, so, gm, but i did sell may gm recently. a lot of things going wrong over there. it's cheap, it should be cheap but -- and tesla is expensive, should be expensive, but too expensive for me so nieither >> i'm bad at the game, too. >> that's the game, fos.lk final trades up next the first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colodo. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado.

start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley.

a force to be reckon with. no, not you saquon. hm? you! your business bank account with quickbooks money,

now earns 5% apy. 5% apy? that's new! yup, that's how you business dferently. time for the final trade let's go around the horn, starting with tim. tim? >> tyler, thank you for joining us copper is at six-month highs we talked about gold near all-time highs freeport mines them both fcx. >> karen >> yes had a nice bounce, but i think lowe's still has some room to run with housing turning around. >> dan >> yeah, nike up 40% into tomorrow's print i wouldn't be chasing this one year >> interesting and guy?

>> tyler, father of the year give us a call in tim's world, agnico-eagle mines, comes out aem, ty >> all right that's your "fast money" for tuesday night. "mad money" with jim cramer is >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i hope to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> hey i'm kramer, welcome . i'm trying to make you a little money. my job is to entertain, educate, and teach you. sometimes during an incredible run you need to take something off of the table