latest episode of manifest space. you can listen to that interview with the ceo wherever you get your podcasts. tomorrow, we have durable goods, michigan consumer expectations. a lot to watch. >> there's a lot to watch. nike selling off right now. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime," though. >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. not doing it. shares of nike sharply lower on a revenue miss and softer than expected outlook. is this the latest sign of a consumer starting to stumble? plus, the least magnificent. apple is up nearly 50% this year. it's the worst performer among the so-called mag seven. can it go from the bottom to the top in '24? and later, eli lilly and

novo nordisk. we'll break that down. i'm melissa lee, coming to you from studio b at the nasdaq. welcome. and we start off with nike swooshing lower. the sports apparel giant warning of weaker revenue going forward. it announced plans to cut $2 billion in costs over three years. the earnings call just kicking off. sara eisen has the very latest. sara? >> hi, melissa. this is a bit of a good news/bad news situation for investors. on the good news front, nike's really ramping up the profitability here. that was evident in the numbers and the comments in the release. $1.03 was a big beat. gross margins came in, as well. you mentioned the cost savings plan, $2 billion. they say they're going to do that by similarplifying product assortment, streamlining organization, ie job cuts. and leveraging scale, nike says, to drive greater efficiency. in the release, this is unusual,

the cfo matt friend is quoted by saying, we are shifting toward more profitable growth as we look ahead to a softer second half revenue outlook. those comments, you think, getting a lot of attention, because they are warning about the second half of the year, and reminder, nike just reported its second quarter. that was also evidence in the numbers today. 1% overall revenue growth, revenue growth in its key market, north america, shrinking in the quarter. europe shrinking in the quarter. nike managed to grow 8% in greater china, but that was a stepdown from the double-digit growth we had seen in that region for nike in recent quarters. just want to highlight some other areas where they're seeing slower growth. digital, for instance, sales up only 4% there, wholesale, which is the department store channel, down 2%. so, i think that really rings true, what the cfo is saying about the softer second half revenue outlook. we'll learn more from the conference call, which just kicked off.

they usually share specific guidance toward the back end of the prepared remarks. after they talk up the innovation and how strong the brand is, expect to hear a lot about the olympics, which are gearing up, as well, this year -- next year for paris and what nike has planned. but the big focus will be on the demand environment which is the not so good news part of this story. and clearly nike is sensing a shift here. >> karen's got a question for you, sara. >> yeah, hi, sara. >> hi. >> so, the inventory, that looked like very good shape, so, it seemed they knew during the quarter that they were seeing some softness, i mean, they ended up -- the turnover was excellente and inventory was vey good. so, when did they get wind of this or are they going towards a higher margin business? >> yeah, i think they are going to a higher margin business which is clear, and they're trying to control things that they can control, which is why the shift into more profitable growth. and with that comes the inventory management. i don't know exactly when in the

quarter they started to realize that, because from what i've heard, they had a very strong black friday, for instance, and cyber monday, but i don't think it's surprising, we've heard it from other retailers, as well, specifically on target and wall ma walmart, that the consumer is looking for value and slowed down. hearing it from nike, as well, sort of jives with that fact, and they are able to manage the profitability picture in the face of that. >> the release does seem to be much more conservative than the company normally is and i'm wondering if you can sort of characterize that for us and give us a sense, is it really? because it sounds like they're being a little defensive about their business right now, cost-cutting, they're also warning of softer, you know, growth in the second half. >> i think that's a change. i think the announcement of the $2 billion cost savings program is new. the fact that matt friend is saying a softer second half revenue outlook, that is unusual, to have that kind of tone in a nike report, especially lately, in a nike

report. look, it's still a category leader, and, you know, by all accounts, they've got these good news innovations that are hitting the market. i think there will be questions on the call because of this, melissa, about full price and if they are able to drive margin that way, hold the line there, if the demand environment really is weakening. but i agree in terms of the defensive posture. i get that. we don't usually get that from nike. and i think that's the point they're trying to make, but they're also trying to cheer up investors and drive profitability in what we saw in margins and say, there's more to go here on that story. >> all right, sara, thank you so much. great to see you. sara eisen. what do you think of nike, guy? >> a lot here, right? we had a robust conversation last night, you were -- >> i heard some of that conversation. >> you said that you were listening to this. i thought it could trade up to 128 into earnings, i think it got up to 123. that was wrong. what do you do now? karen mentioned inventories. last quarter, they were up 10%.

that helped margins this quarter. now unvenn toirs are down 14%, which could continue to help margins. it is a bit of a margin story, but it's a north american story, as well, and 45% of their revenue comes from north america, which is now down 3.5% year over year. that's concerning, on top of a $2 billion in cost savings, at a company that does close to $60 billion in revenue. that's a significant number. what do they see that the market isn't seeing? question is, where do you buy the stock, what's the right valuation? i think it goes lower than 115 now. i don't think it gets down to the september low, which was 98, but between 105 and 108 it settles in. >> interesting we're talking about margins and inventories and the like. if you look at that print they had a 44.6%, the street was looking for 44%. for the back half of the year, expected 46% margins. when you ask, at what point did they start to put some of this sort of inventory controls in place, thinking about profitability, i look at the 46% in the back half, say, that's probably not particularly

likely, and you know, you see this sort of action, they're putting -- taking this charge, they're putting these kind of initiatives in place over the next few years, there is probably another quarter of difficulty, especially if they are warning to that. and this is one of the things that is interesting about the late cycle names, the things we took away from fedex. as we start thinking about q-4 earnings and the sort of visibility that a lot of companies have, this might be it. the micron thing, again, ooem not trying to tie these all together, this was an interesting week of earnings. to me, it's a bit more cyclical and what's going on. i think this is much more impactful about what the consume here might be doing. >> yeah. >> and the consumer, you were pointing out that china was weak. >> very weak. >> and what does that mean for others operating in china? >> starbucks doesn't seem to be doing much in the afterhours, but this was a quarter of puts and takes for sure. i think this inventory thing is interesting to me. it sets them up well, because the inventory continues to shrink which was such a big

issue for them. they started to get their arms around it last quarter, which is why the stock reacted so well. but i'm not sure where -- when they got cautious, and so i think better margins, but if your overall sales aren't growing, that's not nearly as good. the $2 billion cost control over -- cost reduction over three years, that is a significant amount to their bottom line, if they get there, and i don't know what the right multiple is to put on it. i'd like to buy more down, but let it shake out a little. i think some analysts are going to be disappointeded with this, and i think the tone of the call seems somewhat downbeat. >> yeah, downbeat for sure. what does this say, if anything, in your view, about the consumer? >> i think the resiliency of the consumer started to be taken for granted, and i've been in that camp, as well. we've had a couple of interesting prints. consumer confidence that came in better than expected. we've got michigan tomorrow, we'll see what that shows. we've had gdp and consumption data that's come in

disappointing. the nuggets that they're going to give us about the cadence of consumer health, i think, are going to be really important macro-wise, in north america. i think understands china's been weak. >> foot locker is down 2%, just about, on the back of this. what do you want to know from the conference call? >> what are they seeing -- why is this $2 billion of cost savings over thenext three years? >> how do you get there? >> a.i.? >> no, i'm not joking. i'm actually not joking. >> could be. >> they're going to say that or -- >> i don't know what they're going to say. i think they can operate more efficiently. i do. >> in terms of, you know, again, their inventory in order, north america is still your biggest segment, what's going on with that slowdown? >> i obviously work out a lot, so, i was on nike.com actually just yesterday -- >> that's the workout? >> well, no. i was looking for a new pair of running shoes, and they have hundreds, if not thousands of skus. it was mind-numbing.

it's interesting, when you think about that, you say to yourself, like, it's a little -- why are you laughing? >> you are the only ironman on the table here? >> first of all, it's got nothing to do with that. what are we -- you shop for -- people do this? >> yeah. >> you don't go to the local nike store and -- >> hasn't digital been a huge part of the nike story? talking about efficiency and logistics -- >> yes, yes. >> so, that's my only point. again, obviously, i work out a lot. the other point i want to make is, you just referenced that move off of the september low when they reported. the stock was down 30%. they could have said anything, you know what i mean? and now the stock's rallied 35%. so, i think this is also going to be a story as we get into january, look at the stock market from january 2022, it looks like a v, you know what i mean, from january 2024, if you think about it. i think it gets a lot harder from here and this is when the stock picking real kicks in. >> just one more point i want to

think about, we've seen a lot of supply chain improvement, and that's gone to people's margins, and i think that's getting a little long in the tooth. so, i kind of wish it were something else. higher pricing, higher average sales price or something, better cost control, instead of -- instead of, okay, the supply chain issue is better so margins were better. >> what kind of consumer buys nike? for a long time, we thought, i mean, dan, i guess, we thought that, you know, the higher end consumers, little more insulated, they've got their jobs still, et cetera, but if we are seeing some softness, i'm wondering, lori, how you sort of im im impute that onto retail. >> there's been this bifurcation between the high end and the low end. and their consumers are going to be skewed to the high end. that's where the resiliency has been. to kind of dan's point, consumer stocks have don really well on the heels of interest rates going down. some investors have been saying,

look how much yields have come down, look at where they're forecast to be, is this trade done? is this over? what we're learning right now is that setup is as important as anything else. >> they've got some things coming up on the calendar, guy, as i know you're watching very closely, tiger woods' contract with nike -- >> i'm laser focused on that. >> but they can lose a major, you know, endorser of the brand -- >> without question. and they will find another one. so i'm with you. the semitapes are filled with irreplaceable people, so, nike will figure this out. that's not my biggest concern. my biggest concern, again, going back to it is, where did this come from? we're talking about cost savings, $2 billion over three years. what are you seeing? north america slowing down, china clearly still a bit of a problem. maybe better than expected, but slowing down, as well. all this on the backdrop of a company that's been rewarded with a very sizable valuation over the years. is it justified in this environment? that's what i look for. >> is this very bad for foot

locker? it is trading lower in the afterhours. >> it is. it's had a huge run, also. did she say wholesale was down 2%? >> yeah. >> that's them, so, that's not great for them. yeah, it should be under pressure. >> lori, one of the things with china is interesting, as you think about your outlook for domestic companies here and earnings potential, we have the dollar coming in, input costs, i feel like people are not talking enough about china right now. if you look at the data they have, the deflation and we're so excited about disinflation right now, what if they exported that weakness overseas if is that a 2024 story for a lot of consumer companies? >> it potentially could be. i think what's interesting on china is the negativity has been so deep, i mean, i've come off by two months of, like, nonstop travel and nobody's really, you know, talking about china that much anymore, which i find absolutely fascinating. but if you look at the funds flow data from epfr, you are

starting to see an uptick. i've been looking to china -- i think it's getting less negative. it's not turned positive yet, but we're starting to see, you know, this kind of improvement and trend under the surface. i've been talking to people in the last week about, you know, is there opportunity here from the contrarian perspective? and that could translate into too much negativity on the consumer, or just rotation out of the u.s. so, i'll be curious what they have to say on wchina. >> let's talk about the broader market. just on tuesday, i think, you had a note out saying that there's a warning sign flashing about the markets being overbought. what do you see now? is this just the beginning? >> so, i will say, you know, very clearly, i am still in the constructive camp for 2024. we've got a 5,000 target. i'm not sitting here feeling like that's too low at this point in time, though. the big thing that we've seen change since we put our outlook out in mid-november, we did it right before thanksgiving, is that sentiment has really done a complete shift. back at the beginning of november, aai net bulls were down around one standard

deviation between the long-term average. and where we are now, last week, we hit one standard deviation above that long-term average. that typically signals a flat market over the next three months and a 6.5% gain over the next 12 months. think we're going to have a good year, but i do think we just need to sort of have that pause that refreshes. we need to stop and take a minute and digest some of these gains. i think it's fair to see sentiment's gotten a little too frothy. >> pause is very different from the kind of pull-back that we saw yesterday. granted, we were up a percent today on the s&p 500, but in terms of the debate around fed rate cuts, do you think we get clarity on that early next year? >> i think we need some clarity. to be honest, it was -- i was in europe last week, so, it wasn't looking at the news every single minute when that fed meeting happened, but really got to the end of the week and it just felt like too much had been priced too quickly and i started to see equity investors really start to worry about that late last week and early this week.

it's not that i don't think the cuts are coming. our team makes a very strong case for why they start in the middle of next year. and if we get more job cuts, that is going to feed that fed cut narrative, but march, that seem as little too early. >> $232 of earnings, so that gets you 21ish multiple, north of 21. what's the potential pitfall of that 232? there's a lot baked in. what is earnings growth projections, almost 13% from '24? >> the last i saw on the consensus bottom up u.s. meat was 245, 246. i'm at 232. and that is another source of real interest in my client meetings recently. the big difference between my number and street consensus, i have flattish margins versus 2022, down a little bit from this year. the bottom up consensus, not just in staples or tech, just about every single sector in the s and p, massive margin expansion anticipated for next year. most of the buy ciders i've been talking about think the sell side numbers are too high. they are very sensitive on this

margin issue, which may be why we're seeing a push to come and say, hey, here's how we're going to continue to defend those margins. but that's a real source of concern, like, are these profit margin expectations simply unrealistic on the sell side heading into next year? >> you want to ask a question or no? >> no, no. >> i do have a question. >> okay. >> the end of the year, the end of the year, you tend to be a little more reflective on -- >> on everything. >> on everything. but for strategist, i would imagine it's what you got right and what you got wrong and i think a lot of people got wrong the notion that the economy would be much more resilient, that the consumer would hang in here and we would be where we are right now. so, how do you take that into consideration as we go into next year? and consensus seems to be all on one side, on that soft landing narrative. >> i've never been in the recession camp. i never called my recessionista. we thought this was going to be a growth scare, something close to a recession, and that was a

tough call to make back in 2022. i will say, what i think we got right this year is sort of recognizing that resiliency was there. our valuation model is going to probably end up being right on the year, it's bun calli ingbee for 4700. but we did manage our target properly. we were looking at things that were more bearish. so, clearly, not bullish enough. but i think we're still going to have debates over the fed. i think we're still going to have debates about consumer. so, those could be triggers and take the market down, you know, for maybe reasons that don't quite pan out later on, but i tell everybody, calls today have 60% conviction level. if you have 90 or 100, you're lying. so, we're just going to have to be sort of indivigilant as the goes on. >> how do you feel about the broadening out of the market? even if the broad market doesn't do well, that there can be sectors that really can do well. >> i'm an old small cap strategist. we pay a lot of attention to that. that is sort of the destination, a lot of money comes out of this

mag seven trade, the big cap growth trade. i think the big cap growth trade got crowded and valued and overvalued for good reasons, but there are tactical problems there, and we do need to see some correction. i think that interest rate expectations falling, the, you know, fed fears falling, that was the first leg of this, i think for that to really continue, you need to see economic expectations improve. growth stocks and big caps typically outper forwform when s sluggish. that is an environment where this growth trade should bounce back. and if the numbers are too low, we may not know that until later in the year, you'll see that rotation trade get a second life. people like to beat up -- i'm answering so many questions on concentration right now in the mag seven. i can't tell you how many requests we've done for people. they're not there stocks. they're there for a reason, but we may need to see that take a breather in other parts of the market. all right, coming up, what

role are the new in vogue option products playing on the whip saw of the market? getting much of the blame for yemd's late-day tumble, but should they? we'll go inside the numbers. next, the league magnificent member of the magnificent seven. should apple get booted from the so-called mag seven, because it only was up 50% this year? we'll debate that. more "fast money" right after this. >> this is "fast money" with melissa lee, right here on cnbc.

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welcome back to "fast money." apple may be a $3 trillion stock, its shares may be up nearly 50% this year, but believe it or not, the tech titan is far underperforming the so-called magnificent seven in 2023. in fact, apple is one of the worst stocks in the group. it's being beat by other megacap names like eli lilly and broadcom. are the stock's best days behind it? there was an article today questioning it, certainly looks like it when you look at what you're paying for in terms of

the growth that is posted in the past fiscal year. dan, i feel like i should go to you -- >> i think they're doing okay, all right? i think apple is doing okay. we're not going to kick them out just yet of the mag seven. but this is an argument we've been talking about for a long time. the growth is not like some of the hyper growth names that have gone to a billion dollars, like a nvidia. they have share in the smartphone market, they own all the profitability there, right? so, you think about that, it's just not growing a lot, because the end market is not growing a lot. it's pretty saturated. so, for services to grow, right, to justify the valuation at 30 times or whatever, they're going to need to do a whole host of new innovative things, and that's part of the argument i read. so, mid-single digits in sales growth. they've been managing this earnings growth, because they have bought back $600 billion worth of stock since 2012. they have given back $150 billion in dividends since then

so, that's one of the reasons why i don't think most folks will sell it who are in it right now. >> i sort of agree with everything you're saying. also, the law of large numbers, right? you just can't continue to grow at a pace when you are that big. and the thing you're talking about, the buy-backs is no longer mathematically helpful. they may use the money because they don't think they have a better use for it, but in terms of just -- a lot of the eps growth they've had has been materially helped by that. >> the question is, do you want to pay this sort of premium above the s&p multiple for, you know, what is forecast to be less than 4% revenue growth next fiscal year. is that what you want to pay for -- 30 times? >> i have it at 29 times next year. they are expected to do $6.53 this year. $7.12 next year in terms of revenue, $400 billion this year, 420, maybe? so, there's the math for you, at

a company trading close to 29 times. margins have been not improving. flatlining. and you have the wild card of china. and we talked about it last night, because it was a story yesterday that a few different outlets reported few weeks ago, that president xi, president biden meeting, president xi said, we will take taiwan by any means necessary. not my words. and this has been reported. that is out there, and the market is not taking that into consideration. that is an absolute existential risk for apple. a company that is in 300 etfs where apple is one of the top ten holdings. >> you think about this underperformance relative to a microsoft. microsoft made a $10 billion investment in openai. it's gained hundreds of billions of dollars with that investment. apple has been nowhere there. the only thing we've talked about with apple in 2023 is vision pro. and -- well, if you think about

it from an innovation -- >> $3500 device. >> right. and maybe the folks in cupertino have a plan, and maybe that's their view. maybe that's the bet they want to make, but apple could have done that. and karen's point about the buy-back, they don't really matter anymore. they are not massaging the earnings enough. and you would rather like to see them make a bold move into generative a.i., using some of that cash, than to buy back their stock here. >> i think they are spending on a.i., it's just -- they haven't sprinkled themselves with the dust. one other thing to think about, when you talk about the multiple is, remember, so much of this business is a hardware business, right? and that multiple is very different, so, when you say, what does that mean for the services multiple, it's growing much more quickly, it's a really high number. right? >> should be a much lower multiple overall, the blend should still be a lot lower. >> i think so, yes, yes. >> too expensive.

>> yes. i could have said that. too expensive. nicely done. >> you had a lot of questions about concentration surrounding magnificent seven. d can this group still be defensive next year? >> i think -- i feel like the trade, you know, that sort of late summer, early fall trade was all about balance sheet. we did a study a couple weeks ago, we looked at the top ten names in the s&p, over time, and we did equal weighed baskets. when you run the balance sheet metrics, just the advantage of these companies is absolutely staggering. so, i am pretty convinced that a lot of this last leg was just about fed fears, and i think going forward, it is about earnings growth and it is about economic growth and the cyclicals should do better if economic growth expectations improve, and i guess i just have a hard time getting behind a mag seven story where the earnings growth is in question. there is a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. mighty, mighty micron.

the chip stock going higher. what the company's ceo had to say that's sending shockwaves through the semi space, next. plus, three, two, one, zero day options. is this derivatives darling to blame for wednesday's roller coaster ride into the red? we'll white knuckle it with a top industry insider, right after this. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." a key a.i. play revving up the street. micron surging almost 9% today, a day after reporting a smaller than expected earnings loss per

share and strong guidance. micron's ceo painting a bullish picture on "squawk on the street" this morning. >> demand and supply balance is going to continue to improve through calendar year '24. we call it the year of recovery, because we've had such steep decline in prices and such steep demand/supply imbalance over the last four to five quarters, that '24 a year of recovery. >> so, how much room does micron have to run here? the ceo just said '24 may be a year of recovery. and we're up 9%. very optimistic translation of what he had to say. >> people are going to take the ball and run with it, because this was a trough quarter. they got everything bad out of the way. they're going to be -- not at the forefront of a.i., i used that term maybe incorrectly, but they're going to be involved in a meaningful way. margins will start to improve. they were better than the p

preannouncement on november 28th. where can it go? the all-time high in the stock was 98ish in december 2021. given what we've seen in the space, i don't think that's that ridiculous of a move. >> this is much cheaper from an a.i. point of view, in terms of, you want to buy an a.i. chip, this is a much cheaper way to go. >> it's just memory. that's the thing. >> need more memory. >> i know, but it's very commoditized, so, the point is, as soon as there's a slowdown, i mean, these guys are going to get squeezed on price, as they do in every major trend that we talked about in the last 10, 15 years. how many years? >> we make it to january -- >> only a week and a half away, so, i do hope we make it. >> okay, fair enough. >> this is the story of micron. this is a story, a player like this, if i hear, this year is the year of this, what is this performance fpull forward. >> see? coming up, a new year's resolution for weight loss drugs. can the heavyweights keep growing in '24? whether supply issues shrink

their profits? but first, was yesterday's 11th hour selloff all due to zero day options what the new hot trade made have to do with the spike in volatility. we're back right after this. ♪ explore endless design possibilities. to find your personal style. endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardie™. all right, tandy, what's it gonna be, the drink made from whatever was laying around,

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks back to winning ways after yesterday's selloff. the dow up half a percent, the s&p up 1%, and the nasdaq leading the way up 1.25%. tesla shares rising 3% today. retail flow into the ev maker this year eclipsing those in the spy etf, more than $45 billion. that's the first time a single stock has seen greater flows than the spy in five years. meantime, reports suggesting that so-called zero day options may have been behind yesterday's late-day selloff. our next guest says the data suggesting something else. mandy shu is thes head of derivatives market intelligence. mandy, great to see you. >> hey, melissa. great to be on the show. >> so, the data you're looking at shows that actually action was balanced, correct, that there wasn't this force driving stocks lower? >> yeah, before i delve into the, you know, the activity of yesterday, it's really important to start high level with the concept of, you know, what

drdrive s zero day risk. and i think there's a misunderstanding that high volume in these products equal high risk. yes, there's a lot of high volume. on average, about $700 billion a day trade in these zero day options. but what matters when we talk about net -- the market risk is not the total volume, but the balance of the volume between buys versus sells. the net positioning, which determines how much market makers actually have to hedge. and what we find, this is a net positioning and actual ly relative to the total volume, the risk of these products, we're talking on average, only about 0.1% of the average s&p daily liquidity. >> so, let's go to yesterday's action then, and why so many people are pointing to 4765 puts and vilifying it, i mean, this is a product that really people want to blame a lot of things for, and yesterday's a prime

example, so, can you walk us through? >> sure. a lot of attention is being paid to the 4765 strike put in the s&p yesterday, and as the market fell and went through that strike, people pointed to the high volume in that strike, right? 120,000 contracts in that particular strike yesterday. but to my earlier point, high volume doesn't actually mean high risk. if we break down that thflow, i terms of what market makers were hedging, we see 61,000 customers long, 62,000 was customers short. it's remarkably balanced such as the net imbalance, we're talking about 1,000 contracts, right? 1% of the total volume that market maker had to hedge. if we can extend that all cross all strikes, market makers are not just huging one particular strike, what we find is that yesterday, throughout the selloff, for most of the afternoon, market makers were actually net long gamma, which

is just a technical term that tells you they were long options and they were hedging in the opposite direction of the market move. so, as the market was selling off, market makers were buying futures to hedge their option position. so, if anything, they were the stabilizing force in yesterday's selloff. not the destabilizing force. >> mandy, this is lori. whenever things in the options market end up going a little bit haywire, the question that comes to me is, how much is retail driving this? is this like what we saw in the pandemic? i'm curious if you're thinking about yesterday or just in general with the zero day options, what's your view on that? >> yeah, that's a great question. so, zero day options, we do see a fair amount of retail activity, so, our estimate is 40% retail, 60% institutional. so, i would say a pretty healthy balance. but to your point about, is it like, for example, what we saw in the pandemic, certainly, i think there's a tendency for people to conflate the two, but what i would say, the activity that we're seeing in options

could not be more different to what we saw in 2021, during the pandemic, you know, meme stock era. that was a time when the option activity we saw was very much one way, it was investors buying upside calls to speculate on the direction of stocks, right? and all of it was bullish activity. and, of course, when the market started going down in 2022, all of that activity dried up. what we're seeing, zero day options is a very balanced flow in terms of, you know, investors buying these options, either for hedging or speculation, but also, very significant percent of the volume is investors selling these options for income generation, so, that diversity of use case, you know, again, is why the flow in the zero day options is so balanced, and why we continue to see their robust flow in zero day options, regardless of what the market is doing. whether it was last year, market down 20%, or this year, market up significantly, it's been very consistent and agnostic to the

direction of the market. >> last quick question, mandy, and i understand for the spy, you know, it's deep, it easlick wid, et set are, but there are so zero day expirations on single stocks, on etfs. are there opportunities in sort of the more thinly traded areas to cause more volatility, where there isn't as much balance as we're seeing in spy? >> so, not quite in single stocks yet. so, yes, spx, by far, is the deepest, you know, most liquid market where we had zero day options. beh we really talk about the availability of expiration every single day. so, right now, we have it in spx family, spx, spy, and we have it in the nasdaq. the x and the qs. right now, there are no zero day options available at a single stock level, and i think, you know, there's definitely going to be logistical challenges in terms of extending it to single stocks. one of the unique features of index options is the fact that it is cash settled, so, the

risk, you know, of settlement is low to a single stock option. so, that's something that is a hurdle that the market needs to overcome. >> okay. mandy, thank you so much for joining us. good to see you. >> thank you. >> mandy xu. >> the last point she made about cash settlement, the fact that this activity that happened yesterday happened at 2:30, kind of a dull market, liquidity is kind of low here, and again, you know, no one has their finger on the pulse like how these things were hedged, what else was trading in other parts of the markets, supposedly there was some short-dated tesla puts -- there was some testing, there was -- of the liquidity in this market. the one thing i'll say about these and i've been trading options for awhile here, for years and years, this is new. cash settlement, interesting. this is pure speculation. it's not that different than trading futures, and you are stopped out, if you are long them, but the idea of selling

them, being cash settled, there is, you know, potential risk if there are big moves one way or another. most retail do not have the ability to kind of hedge the risk that some of these dealers might have done with futures or others. to me, i think they pose a tremendous risk, because they're just pure speculation right now. and it's not just institutions. it's a lot of retail. and i don't think we actually know what they can do if a bunch of things came together at one time. let's say there was a horrible tape bomb. we've traded when there's something that has the potential to move the markets. we don't know how much it might exas prat. >> i would feel better if the vix moved in a corresponding way. you had a big move. today, the vix traded up to 14 1/2, closed unchanged. i don't want to get too wonky like we used to do in the "options action" show, risk more, make less -- >> risk less, make more. >> something like that, but i'll say this, when you are short

volatility, it's a great thing. you earn and you put it away and you put it in your pocket, until it goes wrong. and yesterday was a glimpse of what happens when you are short volume. you saw how quickly the market started to feed on itself to the downside. so, just something to watch today in terms of the vix. all right, coming up, shares of nike taking a leg lower, now down almost 10%. we'll get the latest on the outlook for the rest of the year, right after this.

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uncle dan! we're trying to get to jamaica. stay close and... everything will be all right. [ gulps ] we have an update out of nike's conference call. it says it expects revenue growth to be slightly necessary in fiscal q-3 compared to double-digit growth a year ago. fiscal q-3 is the quarter we are in for nike. growth in q-4 will be in the low single digits. there is some more color in terms of that $2 billion cost-kufting plan. they say they will complete it by the end of fiscal '24, which would imply around mid year of next calendar year for us, so, that's pretty fast. >> yeah. >> yes. it is pretty fast, so, that's quick to bottom line. i think i saw china and india, they lowered that, as well. which isn't surprising, given

that quarter was really not so good. >> originally, quickly, when i first saw that cost-cutting, i saw it over three years and now you're telling me it's over the next six months, effectively, which is -- a bit accelerated. i don't know where that came from, but that's probably one of the reasons it took this next leg lower. >> that's a positive, though. >> i -- i don't -- i don't think so. that's just me. i look at it a little differently, but that's what makes markets, right? >> yeah. this is a really staggering decline in the afterhours session, down 10%. >> to guy's point, i think he makes a really good point. the acceleration of that, on that sort of -- i mean, what do they see -- >> what do they see? >> they guided down the current quarter they're in -- i don't know, you know. listen, the stock was trading at $110 at the start of december, so, it's back there. that's everything. investors, like, let's kind of pull back a little bit. let's take a breather. it's been a big year, you know what i mean? i think there are folks that are over their skis and they are about to get corrected.

if you go in after a 35% rally and you are not, like, at the very -- cautious, you know what i mean, cautiously optimistic, like -- i don't know, i'd be a little surprised by that. the flip side of that, micron, we just heard that ceo, they lost money this year, you know what i mean? and they swung to a loss last year and they are expected to swing to a profit next year, so, caution, you know -- i don't know. >> by the way, foot locker is down 5% on the back of this leg lower in shares of nike. we haven't heard yet as far as i know about sort of the qualitative trajectory of the slowdown during the last quarter, so, that will be interesting to hear in terms of, you know, some data points to impute on other retailers now, but does this make you more concerned? >> look, i just -- as we were sort of listening to the conversations between consumer and tech, we've been in very different earnings cycles in different parts of the market. and tech had its earnings recession already and we're in recovery mode. and we're going into the stickiest part of the consumer

cycle. and i think -- i think we're just in this environment where we're having pain points and investors want to buy recovery right now and where we're coming out of something as opposed to coming out of it. >> karen? >> one little thing, they had some big periods that were nice, back to school was good, black friday, and then in between that, some softness. so, now we're in between that, sounds like more softness. >> right. again, nike down almost 11% right now afterhours. coming up, new year's resolutions. weight loss drug makers have been on a tear this year, but can they keep it up in 2024? that story is next.

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♪ ♪ the right drinks delivered for any party. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome back to "fast money." it's a make or break moment for the heavyweights of weight loss. lilly and novo nordisk posing huge gains, but investors are worried about supply being too slim for the gains to continue into 2024. angelica peebles has the skinny on a pivotal year for glp-1 makers. angel that? >> hey, melissa. the big question next year is how many more people can get these drugs?

and the answer to that will depend on a few things, like supply and insurance coverage. novo nordisk is planning to send significantly wegovy to the u.s. next year and eli lilly is saying it will double manufacturing capacity by the end of this year, with planning to ramp up even more as they launch their new obesity drug. but the reality is, even still, that probably won't be enough. these are really complicated drugs to make, and there are tens of millions of adults in the u.s. alone who could benefit. and not everyone is going to be able to get them, though. of course, insurance coverage is still a big issue. novo estimates about 50 million americans are eligible for wegovy with private insurance, but eli lilly saying 5 million people are on glp-1s. they could start to change, especially if the drugs can show they help with other health conditions, like sleep apnea and we'll get more data on that front in the new year. melissa? >> i'm curious, in terms of the bottleneck, the source of the problem, is it, i mean, obviously it's just making the

drug, but how much of it is the pen versus making the drug itself? >> yeah, the pen is a big issue, and lilly's talked a lot about how it plans to introduce these pens that -- these, you know, multiuse pens, but the problem is that scaling anything takes time. and even lilly and novo are spending billions of dollars to expand their manufacturing in europe, but those will take years, those facilities, to come online, so, this is just a slow process. >> angelica, thanks. quickly, guy, what do you think? >> well, we can talk lilly and novo all you want. look at the move in medtronic off of a hugely oversold condition from 70 to 82. these stocks were punished, that's where you want to be. >> up next, final trades.

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what is so funny? >> it doesn't matter. it's inside baseball, doesn't matter. great to have you back. i love that jacket. very smart. delta airlines still has room to 45. >> thank you, lori, for joining us tonight. thank you for watching "fast money." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make a little bit of money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate, put it in context. call me, 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet me @jimcramer. admit it. admit it. when you first heard about artificial intelligence, whoa, you were