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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  December 26, 2023 5:00am-6:00am EST

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but i don't think lizzie ever grieved. i think the only time lizzie has ever felt remorse is when she's alone at night in her little cell in federal prison. -- captions by vitac -- it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters and here is your "five@5." we begin with no holiday hangover here as wall street looks to stay in the win column. and if history is any indication, you can expect a value through year's end. st. nick's gift for investors. not just the u.s., indexes are about to close out a stellar 2023. we breakout your 2024 playbook if a moment. plus, could we see an easing
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to the red sea shipping risk? and bulls waking up with new reasons to wake up early. it's tuesday, december 26th, 2023. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. ♪ good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange." hope you had a great holiday weekend. we kickoff the hour with the check on the u.s. stock futures after a long holiday weekend. taking a look right now and the dow is looking like it would open up 70 points higher. nasdaq and s&p the solidly in the green. wall street is coming off another winning week. the dow extended the win streak to eight. the longest since 2019. and s&p is up as well. the big part of that story is big tech with the nasdaq up more
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than 50% this year and on pace for the best year since 2009. ahead of the open, it is .50% away from the all-time high. we focus on the ten-year yield at 4.88% this year. and this is the wti check coming in at $73.30. down .30%. brent crude down $79 a barrel this morning. with europe closed for boxing day, we are checking on asia overnight. look at asia. the shenzhen is down fractionally. let's get a check of the top corporate stories with silvana henao. silvana. >> good morning. maersk is prepared to resume in the red sea and gulf of aden
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after the step up of the military presence in the region. the company paused sending ships through the key shipping channel. it accounts for 12% of the global shipping traffic. no word from bp or lloyd or the dozen other companies that have paused red sea routes in the recent weeks for similar reasons. chatgpt creator and openai is in early talks to raise a fresh round of funding with the valuation over $100 billion which would be the most valuable private companies in the world. according to bloomberg, terms and timing have not been finalized and could change. the report says openai held talks to raise funding for a new chip venture with g42 between $8 billion and $42 billion.
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unclear if the funding talks are related. the s.e.c. is taking one step closer to its decision on future spot bitcoin etfs. officials met thursday with representatives from blackrock and grayscale and ark investments and 21 shares and three other companies looking to launch etfs tied to bitcoin. telling them to submit final changes by the year end. the s.e.c. is due to decide whether to approve or reject the joint proposal from ark and 21 shares by january 10th. bitcoin this year is up 156%, frank. >> a big rally for cryptocurrency. silvana, thank you. turning attention now back to the markets. day two of the so-called santa claus rally which comprises the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the next. odds are in your favor if
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history is a guide. 126 santa claus rallies since 1926. the s&p moved higher in 88% of them. across the rest of the year, the markets have risen 56% of the time with the average gain of .2%. let's talk more about the year-end trading with vance howard at howard capital management. >> good morning, frank. >> vance, on day two of the santa claus rally, are you a believer? what sectors are taking leadership? >> i am a believer. i think we will have a good four or five days. i think the market will do well. the market is starting to broaden out. pce came in at a good number. bonds are looking good. i think it is a positive scene going into year end and 2024. >> you are talking about bonds. not a lot of people are talking about bonds, vance.
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why are bonds look going to you? >> it is a funny thing. when you look at we started buying two or three weeks ago. it is up $84 a share and now up to $98 a share. it is productive and positive. people need to look at bonds going into 2024. it may be a better asset class than the s&p. >> for clarity, the ishares treasury bond etf. you are in favor of longer-term bonds in etf form? >> i think you will get bigger bang for the buck. you can look to see three interest rate drops from the fed next year. the pce indicator coming down the 3% levelwas productive for the market and for bonds. bonds are incredibly oversold. if he drops rates, you will see
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a massive rally. agg, you can look at that, but high yields have done well. you get more bang for the buck with the longer-term treasuries. >> you are looking at longer-term treasuries. i want to go back to equities. qqqs, you are bullish on those. do you still think they have more room to run in 2024? >> you know why i like the qqqs is because they have the magnificent seven. you get the bang for the buck with the magnificent seven, but you have to spread it out of the risk with the equity exposure in different classes. if you take out the magnificent seven, frank, the price to earnings at 15.3% and the market is broadening out . it is not overheating if you take out the magnificent seven. this market will look a tttracte and the qqqs are the way to play it. i think small caps will do well also as the market broadens out.
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>> your pick is vbk. you are 100% invested in the market. you talk to us and 60/40, but you are 100% innvested in the market. give us a sense where you are putting your focus as we enter the new year? >> we are overweight tag. everybody needs to stay long on the magnificent seven. they will do well in 2024. we start to broaden out with small caps. iwm is looking good. i think that is an area you want to play. another area if you look at bio-tech, it was oversold in 2023. it is making a nice rally back up. you need to look at bio-tech stocks. maybe johnson & johnson. ebb is a good play. you will have a lot of activity
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in 2024. >> diversify your portfolio and look at long bonds. thank you, vance. >> thank you, frank. coming up on "worldwide exchange," including the one word investors need to know. and why the airlines need to avoid the meltdown from last year. we speak with one ceo bringing the manufacturing sector into the future with, what else, artificial intelligence. and rates doing nothing to put a damper on the holiday rates. we have a very busy hour still ahead on "worldwide exchange." stay with us. meet gold bond daily healing. a powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals, and smooths dry skin. with 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." travel conditions were nice over the weekend compared to last year with southwest stranding more than 2 million passengers. flight aware reported 157 flights canceled into and out of the u.s. tsa reports show 2.6 million people were screened on thursday and the numbers from the weekend have not been released yet. let's talk about the travel season and the airline industry as we head into 2024. david vanmiller is here with us. david, i hope you had a great holiday weekend. thank you for being here. >> thank for having me.
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happy holidays. >> let's get into it. how did you view the airline industry this year and what is your outlook for next year? >> i hate to see the video you showed last year which was awful. this thanksgiving, frank, was decent. weather is always a factor. there are things the airlines have done and the faa. the faa boosted staffing in the northeast corridor which was critical. this year will surpass 2019 in volume for the full year. we expect next year to grow about 3%. this year's the strongest passenger volume year the industry has experienced. that is really positive. >> wait. 2023 is a record year for passenger the volume? >> yeah. from before covid. even before covid.
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record. pent-up demand and low unemployment. >> and consumesrs willing to spend. >> absolutely. consumer sentiment which you talk about a lot is strong. >> it certainly is. >> numbers look good. >> we will talk about holiday shopping in a moment. we talk about conconsumers, but what about business travel? are you expecting to see that accelerate 3% or more next year? >> i don't know about 3%. you know, it's been soft for the past year. it was less than the volume of overall traffic. we expect business travel to increase in 2024. i don't think it will be 3%. there's no question it will go up. the industry and particularly the major carriers are
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benefitting from that premium travel. free wifi and better incentives because the industry needs that business travel. what is interesting, also, by the way, if you look globally, not just in the u.s., but the strong dollar helps going to europe for business travel. that will continue. the big carriers are doing better than the low-cost carrier carriers overall. >> when you look at the airline industry, is it the small carriers you expect to do better as far as the stocks? you expect the bigger carriers to be strong going into the new year? >> i always look at not individual, but long-term trades. if you are a day trader, don't be in the market. look at the pe and the per
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tomorro formance. there are two well capitalized on the east coast and west coast. i would look at those. they have stronger upside. i also think southwest has upside. they got creamed last year if you look at the performance. >> the holiday season meltdown is a fair word and people being stuck. one last quick question i want to ask. hawaiian and alaska. that merger there. what is your view? you were the ceo of aloha and were you pushing for mergers. what do you think about the m&a? >> i sat down with gary kelly at southwest. i begged him to take aloha. i said it is cheaper to come to us. i went to alaska with the same situation. they both now are going hawaii. it is a rounding error with the
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doj. they may take a look at it. they want to show the jetblue issues with spirit and american. they want to show they are doing something for the consumer. on the west coast and combination of alaska and hawaiian will be strong. it will hurt united. >> very interesting. david banmiller, i wish i was going to hawaii. >> four years on the beach on saturdays spoiling anybody's life. >> david, thank you. i appreciate it. coming up on "worldwide exchange," a california judge brings a devastating loss to twitter. aomyothfu sryu e llto in ment.
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there is a lot of information out there. hamas is a terrorist group oppressing the palestinian people. hamas refused a continued ceasefire, a continued pause in fighting and more aid from israelis in exchange for just freeing more hostages. instead, hamas resumed attacks. not to protect the palestinian people or obtain peace, only to destroy israel. we must stand against hamas and stand with palestinians and israelis for basic human rights.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." it is not just tech racing to get into the hot a.i. craze, but the economy is jumping on the band wagon, too. 70% of manufacturing ceos which deployed a.i. in the business are seeing a significant return on investment. our next guest has cloud based software for companies like dell and ibm. joining me now is our guest, randy. >> thank you for having me, frank. great to be here.
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>> randy, the last earnings in november with the stock's more than doubled. what do you see and what are you seeing that is giving investors confidence? >> we have grown over 18% in the fourth quarter which is forecasting growth accelerating. we have guidance to ebita positive in 2024. we are the leading marketplace for custom manufacturing. we use a.i. to provide pricing for buyers and suppliers and connect tremendous demand with thousands of small manufacturers across the country and world. >> i do want to talk about what your customers are telling you right now. you do use a.i. as part of the cloud-based suite of services. what are they telling you about the demand and how a.i. is fitting in? >> as you mentioned, we are
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doing polling with forbes and 70% of ceos have deployed a.i. in some fashion in 2023. we expect that trend to accelerate in 2024. clearly, a.i. is a key part of manufacturing moving forward. we use that and we have used that since the founding of the company to provide pricing and matching with buyers and suppliers. >> one other thing that seems to be a tailwind for your business is tonshoring. many are in mexico to mitigate supply chain disruption. how has that impacted your business? >> 75% of the ceos we polled have done some re-shoring in 22
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2023. we expect that to continue with the chips act. we expect to see more in 2024. >> you zsay say more in 2024. will it broaden out more? we are looking at some customers with bmw and dell, but you expect the near-shore trend to broaden out and your company to benefit? >> absolutely. we are a technology company with an extensive platform. we in different industries. we expect the trend to be across all those and from the largest companies in the world with more and more re-shoring. there are geopolitical concerns and climate concerns and there are incentives by the federal government and different acts which are encouraging people to look in the united states with a tremendous manufacturing base and near-shoring. >> randy, we talk about a.i. being a disrupt aer and business
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being efficient. there is a short fall. how does a.i. close that gap? you still need a human touch. how will a.i. close that gap for companies? >> it is surprising to people. manufacturing is a high-tech industry. we like to call it the next silicon valley. the people running these machines that are producing so many important goods need to know how to program to 3d and casting and molding. u.s. bureau of labor believes we have 6,000 jobs unfilled in the sector. that is the number one concern of the ceos is the labor gap in the u.s. a.i., particularly as more and more technology is important in manufacturing itself, can help till that gap.
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is it enough? absolutely not. we need to train more in the united states as quickly as possible. >> randy, great to you have here. thank you. stock up more than 100% since the last earnings. >> thank you. coming up, a warner bros. box office bomb showing disney may not be the only superhero > y ms , ecany. >>ifouisuschk out "worldwide exchange" on your favorite podcast app. "worldwide exchange" will be back after this.
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it's right around 5:30 a.m. in the new york city area. there is more ahead on "worldwide exchange." here's what's on deck. the final week of trading and a stock doing something for the first time since 2017. and consumers are coming out in force giving retail a boost. the look at the names set for a breakout ahead. later, mid east tensions showing no signs of easing after the strike on the iran-backed terror target. it is tuesday, december 26th, 2023. are yo you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i i'm frank holland. we pick up the check on the u.s.
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stock futures after the long holiday weekend in the u.s. the futures are solidly in the green with the dow opening up 70 points higher. wall street saw the win streak to eight, the longest since 2019. same for the s&p. up eight weeks in a row for the first time since 2017. the big tech is the story as tracked by the nasdaq 100 up 50% this year. ahead of the open, it is .50% away from the all-time high. we are checking the bond market with the ten-year benchmark yield at 3.88. we are looking at the energy market and oil in particular with the wti at $73.30 a barrel. down .30%. brent crude is down to $78.96 a barrel. europe is closed for boxing
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day and we check on how asia closed overnight. shenzhen is down fractionally. we cap off a stellar 2023 as we dealt with the inflation and hawkish central banks. the dax is about to see the best year. italy and grease ece is up as w. joumanna bercetche has more. >> 2024 is looking to be an eventful year for the uk with the major elections coming at a complex time for the economies.
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forecasts for 2024 predict the euro area returning to growth by the middle of the year. the ecb has held off from indicating a timeline for a policy shift. expectations are that the central bank could start cutting rates in the spring. the uk is expected to avoid recession, but growth will remain sluggish. rates have peaked, but the timing of the cuts from the bank of england is unclear, but they could slash 125 basis points for the year after november's big downside surprise to inflation. it is not just that, but the european elections in june is a key inflection point. the center-right coalition is expected to hold on to the majority with the green and left parties seen as a major loser. voters will go to the polls in
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spring or fall in the uk with the exact date to be set. the labour party has made gains in the polls as the conservative party and rishi sunak have hit a number of policy hurdles. with so much at play, 2024 is a transitional area with the key events influencing the economies. >> thanks, joumanna bercetche. joining me now is karsten berzesky. thank you for being here. >> good morning. >> joumanna called it a transitional area. is there one event that will have the biggest impact on the year ahead? >> it will be the ecb. i'll be watching when the ecb will start cutting interest rates and what we are currently
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see is we have not reached the peak. it will be until june before we get the first rate cut. this will be a crucial moment for the eurozone economy. the first part of the year will be sluggish and stay in recession. >> talk through this, carsten. you say the beginning of the year is sluggish. the dax and italian ftse mib are on pace for the best year since the pandemic. what changes? >> we he look at the stock market and it is remarkable. this looks as if the european countries had grown in 2023 by 2% or 3%. this is not true. the german economy in 2023 will end up in recession. the eurozone economy will have grown by 0 .5%. i look at the delayed impact
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from the policy in 2023 and 2024 will weigh on investment and consumption. the first half is the reality check for the investors when the economy the will not be able to fulfill the dreams that investors currently have. the first half of next year will be a tough one. then come in interest rate cuts by the ecb and the recovery of the economy means the recovery of the european economy. >> there are a lot of geopolitical tensions with the war in ukraine and is raelisrae war. how is that impacting the european markets? >> there is always an escalation possible. it will have a negative impact on the markets in the eurozone with ukraine. same with the gaza war. if this escalates further with
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the impact on energy or involvement of iran, this would be a negative factor for the european economy. the only upside i see from the geopolitical conflict, it would end in 2024. this could then even give a boost to the european markets. think of the reconstruction that will be needed for ukraine. this would clearly give a boost to the european markets. >> you mention a possible escalation. you believe these two conflicts have a big impact on the eurozone and the indices there. if we continue to see things stay the same, how do you see that impacting markets in europe? >> i think if things remain the same, they woill not matter tha much for markets and they will
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return to policy markets and growth numbers. if you look at the ecb, we heard predicting. the ecb is seeing the european economy returning to growth by mid next year. that is driven by private consumption. i would watch private consumption. will there be higher wage growth push up consumption? >> here in the u.s., we have guests say it is a stock pickers market. you cannot invest broadly in the market. when it comes to the eurozone, can you put your money in the dax and play broadly or is it similar where you need to look at particular stocks in particular sectors? >> europe is in a transitional phase. you need to stock pick the sectors. what sectors will thrive in the stagnation will be related to energy transition and
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sustainability. these sectors will clearly thrive. we will have the other sectors that will be more prone to the transition that is automotive and chemicals. it will be retail. these are the sectors that i would think they would not be good in 2024. you really have to pick the stocks and sectors that could benefit from the structure challenges and changes ongoing. >> carsten, thank you very much. time for the check on the top corporate stories with silvana henao. silvana. frank, good morning. the biden administration released the highly anticipated prope pro proposals for cleaner hydrogen
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companies. they stand to look at credits for energy produced. meaningful credits at 60 cents per kilo will go to those who produce hydrogen. it will deliver $140 billion in revenue and 700,000 jobs by 2030 as well as help the u.s. produce 50 million metric tons of hydrogen by 2050. manchester united has a buyer. sir jim ratcliffe is buying a 25% stake in the club worth $1.3 billion and takeover operations from the glaser company. that is well below initial hopes of $6 billion the and marks the end of the year-long battle with ratcliffe and other bidders for control of the club. a federal judge ruled
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twitter violated contracts by failing to pay millions of dollars in bonuses that had been promised to employees after musk purchased the company a year ago. twitter's lawyers said the company made verbal promises to employees 50% of the target bonus and never put it in a written contract. texas law should govern the case and not california. get it all in writing. >> that is wise advice for everything in life. silvana, thank you very much. turning attention now to retail. the final stretch of the holiday season kicking off this week with the new year's celebrations around the corner. despite the slowdown, consumers are still finding reasons to spend. the national retail federation projecting record levels in the final two weeks of the year. consumers expected to spend an
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average of $875 on gifts, decorations and food. meanwhile, adobe forecasting $220 billion in online spending boosted by the demanded for toys and an papparel. let's discuss with scott from capital investments. >> good morning, frank. >> we are looking at optimistic forecasts. do you believe the forecasts are correct and should we look at other issues with the year over year rise? is there something else that gives us more information about consumer spending? >> i think consumer spending has been strong. surprisingly as we got into the holiday period with student loans coming back into play. high levels of credit card debt. we thought the consumer would be more judicious in this spending. that doesn't seem to have happened.
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i guess if you are working and you spare spending, i think it strong. if you were in the market for a tv or something like that, we had deflation there. i think the real question would be for retail which is what is profitability. the discounts came fast and hard during the holiday period. i think we will have to see where profits are here. >> you gave us an p example. 86-inch tv at costco is going for $196. one look ahead to 2024. we are seeing record levels of the credit card debt and student loans coming back. how does that impact the environment next year? >> i think it is a tough call. last year, we had a 75% chance of a significant downturn. 25% chance of the economy
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clicking along. that's what seems to have happened. you know, looking forward we have a couple of thingsplanned with the election year and the fed is dovish. unemployment is remaining low. those are the pluses. as you look at the negatives, credit card is high. we have seen delinquencies go up. if you look at the environment and certainly one more geopolitical event is one too many. i think it makes us really look at what companies we can do through thick and thin. >> you mentioned the dovish fed and rates declining. is that a rising tide that lifts all boats? there is pent-up demand for houses and cars. if rates go down, does that boost all spending or more big ticket items? >> if you look at home depot or
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lowe's, you say people are pricing in a rebound in housing. that is anticipated in the market. we just are a little more cautious. there is not a lot of supply in the housing market. clearly rates have come down quite a bit. 7% mortgage is still pretty high. we would favor and i know people are moving away from walmart. we think walmart is a great buy for next year. if the economy does pull back a little bit, they should do well. if the economy accelerates, one thing that is underestimated in walmart is what they have done in general merchandise. they improved general merchandise. we see that as a big impact on the business if the economy is moving higher. >> one pick is dollar tree. what general merchandise? toilet paper and soap? >> tv and clothing. they have done an incredible job
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on the general merchandise side. >> dollar tree doesn't sell a lot of clothing. they don't sell tvs. why is that the other pick? >> if you look at dollar tree, it is a stock for all seasons. if things are bad, it is a value. if things are good, they have a number of company initiatives. it is the ultimate treasure hunt. it is discretionary. they are bringing in multi-price points. the stock has not performed well as they turn the ship. we do a lot of field research. we have a consulting arm. we think they are making progress. i think most interesting is the multi-price point move. instead of $1, it is $1.25. they are bringing in $3 and $5 items. they will put forward much more
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formal strategy around the multi-price point which we believe on top of the unique merchandising can drive much higher revenue and earnings for a number of years, by the way. >> scott says walmart and dollar tree are two picks for 2024. thank you for being here. >> thanks, frank. coming up on "worldwide exchange," closing out a record-breaking year for 2023. cathie wood is moving on one top stock. the ruling of the under water kingdom bringing in $20 million in the domestic debut. the fourth lowest in the d.c universe. others are "the flash," "shazam." and the townhouse in "home alone" lists for $6.7 million. sounds like we're trying to sell
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the house. it is not just $1 hot dogs and chickens costco is out with a new deal. selling screaming eagle thnapa valley wine. don't wait too long to get a bottle. high demand and low bottles have many on the wait lt.is "worldwide exchange" is back right after this. ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the global briefing. we go to iraq. the u.s. military carrying out air strikes overnight after the drone attack earlier in the day by the iran militants. u.s. officials say no civilians were harmed in the strikes. the strike marks the latest demonstration of the israel-hamas war is rippling across the middle east. the bank of japan moving away from monetary easing after confidence of the 2% target. the central bank says it will consider the policy. adding timing of the policy change is up in the air with the global uncertainty. analysts are expecting the bank
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of japan to reverse negative interest rates next year. and samsung is moving the start date for the plant in texas to 2025. this is after taiwan semi moved the opening date for arizona citing a shortage of construction workers and machine tech technicians. more "worldwide exchange" is coming back right after this. hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. i was 424 pounds and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. to avoid the surgery, i had to make a change. so i decided to go with golo and it's changed my life. with gold bond... you can age on your own terms.
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the s.e.c. meeting with representatives from blackrock and ark investments and others looking to launch etfs tied to bitcoin telling them to submit final changes by the end of the year. cathie wood reduced her stake for four quarters through december. shares of ly climbing 30% in the last two months on strong quarterly results. astrazeneca entering into an agreement to purchase gracell bio-chemical for $1.2 billion. that is expected to help the therapy ambition for the pipeline of new therapies. and china approves 105 video games this morning. the country gaming regulator proposed restrictions on how long minors can play games and in-game spending limits last
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week. the major averages off the eighth straight winning week. let's talk more about the trading patterns for the new year with amy wu silverman at rbc capital. amy, thank you for being here this morning. >> good to be here, frank. >> what do you see as we enter the last trading week of the year and into 2024? what is your wex word of the day? >> my wex word of the day is mean-reversion. i give you two words. i'll say it could be normalization. we have come off post-pandemic years which have been-yea weirdm the equity sense. when you look to 2024, frank, things will become more normal. by that, the equity options
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market means people will look at hedging more and protecting their portfolios. they have become long and participated more than the year before. >> you are mentioning the options market. what is the option market indicating? is tech a leader or will we see a broadening of the market? >> it is actually the latter. if you look to the options sentiment, it has been different time around. you look at the russell 2000 and the overwhelming demand for cac call-ups there. i started watching in november. i said this is at fits and starts. frank, it has remained sticky. what that means is the market is really looking for breadth. it is looking to move away from the magnificent seven. it is not necessarily saying there is downside to magnificent
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seven, but the party may go to other areas. >> you are saying there are broadening, but the calls with the vix. the vix is the volatility indka ind indicator. >> if you look at headline vix, we are still at low levels or below the psychological 20 barrier. however, when you look at the action under the surface, you see people buying vix calls. vix calls are different from other calls. they are betting on volatility going higher. when you think about volatility going higher, that has an inversion relationship to the s&p. s&p is lower with volatility higher. it is interesting the way investors are positioning is calling for higher volatility. >> amy wu, great to see you. please tell your parents i said
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hello. i hope they are enjoying their holiday. >> thank you. futures are high acrosths e board. we'll leave it there. "squawk box" is coming up next.
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good morning. the u.s. markets back in action after the christmas holiday, but will santa stick around until the new year? openai may be about to land a new valuation joining the $1 billion club after a potential new funding round. will apple watches be on sale after the key deadline passes? it's tuesday, december 26th, 2023. "squawk box" begins right now.
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good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are livefrom the nasdaq market site in times square. i u.s. equities showing green around here. that's a good start to the week here. 11 points on the s&p and 35 on the nasdaq. looking at treasury yields. where are the treasury yields? we're 4% on the 30-year yield. five-year yield at 3.88. leslie. steve, tension

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