>> are we all back tomorrow? >> we're all three -- >> should i bring cupcakes or something? what should i bring? i'm not going to bake them. there's no way i'm baking them. >> make sure you join us tomorrow -- >> i'll bring the coffee. >> we have the coffee. we just need the cupcakes. good day everybody. "squawk on the street" is next. good tuesday morning and welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with. carl, jim and david have the morning off. up 62 points on the dow. nasdaq pointing to an up start as well. s&p up eight in the early action. our roadmap will begin with the market rally. major indices in the midst of an eight-week win streak. shipping giant mayors preparing

to resume travel in the red seas. the white house declining to veto banning imports on watches. >> we kick off a holiday shortened weevenlth it has been amazing to see the resilience and strength of this rally, scott. even the strategists put out their s&p year-end targets about a month ago. we're close that that. >> you have to throw those out and the garbage because of what we've done since november 1st. dow up 13%, s&p up 13.5%. now talking about all-time high watch. we're going to open above the all-time closing high for the s&p 500 which was 4,796. keep an eye on there. the intraday all-time high is 4,818. the run since november 1st has been nothing short of stunning.

>> the rally in the bond market, 100 basis point move lower in the ten-year yield. we're also breaching all the targets for next year that the strategists are putting in place. they think the ten-year will end at below 3.9%. how much is being front loaded for next year? if next year is about rate cuts and normalizing policy from the fed and the ecb and the bank of england, the market has done a lot of work pricing in now six cuts for next year. >> especially when you consider that so many of the lagging areas of the market are the ones that have run so much since november. if you think you're going to go into a new year, there's a lot of optimism, let's chease those underperforming areas, they're not really underperforming anymore. since november 1st, real estate up 20.5%, financials up 15.5%,

just over seven, eight weeks. >> russell has had a big comeback, too. it's still up much less than, say, technology. the chart looks like this. it's a b chart. it's come all the way back. >> 22% since november 1st. >> there you go. >> it's been remarkable. it feels like so much of that happened so fast. are there really going to be chazers left to get into some of those underperforming areas of the market? i think that's going to be a big question. we'll have to find out whether earnings are going to deliver the goods. >> absolutely. i think, also, if you look at sentiment and how far it's swung, you can check the aaai, individual sentiment readings. bears going into hibernation. i have a great chart that looks at the fact that it's the fewest amount of bears now in the market since 2018. they're leaving because everybody is jumping on board the rally. now, does that set us up for a

correction in the new year? that's the contrary indicator. there's the fewest bear chart since 2018. you may think people are getting too well bulled up here. >> the only thing we have to fear is we have nothing to fear because everybody has suddenly gotten on the same side of the boat. goldman had a trading note today that said there are no caution signs out there which means maybe take caution -- >> there are things to fear, right? first of all, 2024 -- i think i read this in "the economist" is the most elections ever. we have the u.s. election, the u.k. election, we have geopolitical hot spots like pakistan with an election, india with an election. commodity exporters like indonesia with an election. source of volatility, no question about it. i think the u.s. is the big one there. there is also this risk that the economy slows down too much. right now we're in the sweet spot of a soft landing and the

markets embraced it. the markets market feels good about. that we really hang on to a soft landing? can the fed really stick it? we are seeing signs of softness in parts of the industrial economy. i think nike's warning, stock sold off 12% on friday when they said they're seeing a different kind of consumer profile. it wasn't just in the u.s., but all around the world. signs about the earnings and the economic softness is certainly a risk factor that the market is not pricing in recession or anything slower. >> if you're waition for the consumer to crumble, still not getting signs of it. the early data from holiday spending was up 3.1% according to master card. you may be increasing your credit card balance, and delinquencies may be going up, but the consumer still has a big appetite to spend.

you mentioned obviously the central banks and the fed. still the great unknown is even jay powell himself talks about it on a regular basis, these log and variable lags. are they eventually going to take hold? he can't be certain. nobody can. wall street has placed their bets given where we've come so far so fast in the market, that they're going to stick the landing. >> we'll continue to debate it. i think the retail sales data from master card is interesting. if you look at where the bulk of the spending, the big winner in terms of category winner, restaurants, 7.8% jump. overall it's healthy we got a good number. e-commerce was another big number, up 6%. in store was 2%. electronics and jewelry were actually down in spending. you have to factor in a little bit of inflation into those numbers.

it does point overall to the fact that consumers still in a good and healthy place. you mentioned the delinquency numbers. we got new numbers from the new york fed on friday. we do have delinquencies now rising on credit card debt past the prepandemic images. nothing speaking, nothing super alarming, but it's a trend economists are watching. obviously that's problematic. it's happening -- you can parse the data through the age groups. millennials are seeing higher pre-pandemic delinquency levels in particular versus some of the other cohorts. >> still a huge appetite for experiences, whether eating out, traveling. itches pulling up expedia. i know these stocks have been on a rip of late. expedia is up 56% in just three months. it's amazing because people -- it's not like they just all of a sudden, there was this renewed appetite to travel and spend money on airfare and hotels and

everything else. these stocks have had an incredible run of late as this appetite remains for whatever experience you want to have, whether it's the concert goers, beyond say, taylor swift, whether it's traveling, expedia and those stocks doing well. the airlines have had a good go of it. >> don't forget cruises. best stocks of the year. royal caribbean and carnival are in the top ten, up 164% for royal caribbean. karncarnival up 134%. ceo josh weinstein continues to say there are no signs about decreased demand. th they're not seeing it. cruises were late on the post pandemic travel rebound. still, the amount of demand and what people are paying on prices continues to be a priority. i keep thinking of the other areas where there doesn't seem

to be a slowdown. dodgers spend a billion dollars on a couple of free agents. it's remarkable to me where valuations of evening continue to go up. certainly you're not goating any signs those industries or those worlds about pending slowdowns. valuations of sports teams continue to climb. rights deals for all of that. as you know, obviously, from your work with f 1, the value of those teams. >> experiences up 100%. that's not necessarily cyclical. i think that's in sort of a league of its own when it comes to valuation. that's in the chatgpt valuation range which is targets 100 billion which we'll talk about. there are losers.

dollar general is down 50% this year. individual issues and category issues. pfizer, estee lauder vf corporation challenged companies dealing with their own problems, but also in the some space and something to watch. >> i'm glad you bring that up. i was reading -- i think it was the journal today, the underperformance in packaged foods, smuckers, con ag, all down 20-plus percent this year. higher rates have hurt the dividend. >> and also glp-1 drugs. people are worried about the impact as these drugs go mainstream of how much we're going to consume of packaged foods, i think that's been a problem. also there's been concerns about valium growth. the whole story for packaged food, they had this pricing growth when inflation was high. consumers reached a tipping point of how much they were willing to buy on these higher prices. that's been kind of a slowdown

in the food space. if you're looking for turn-around candidates of lagging sectors, that is trading under the s&p valuation. >> put it on the top of your list. when we return, topic for 2024 happens to be among the dow 30, not a tech stock. hear what one analyst has to say about it. taking a look at the futures again, dow features up 52. s&p futures up eight points. it's a quiet trading day with some markets like the uk closed for boxing day. "squawk on the street" coming right back. [ "i'll be seeing you" by the five satins ] the mercedes-benz holiday love celebration is here. come in now for the exceptional offers you're bound to love, now, through january 2nd.

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our next guest's topic of the restaurant and food service industry is mcdonald's. it sees values in both the offensive and defensive players. andy barish joining us now, a buy rating on mcdonald's, a $330 price target. i guess i'll ask you about mcdonald's. first, before we get to the broader market, why do you like it so much? >> good morning, happy holidays, everyone. thanks for having me on. i think it works in all different types of environments, as you pointed out in the opening there. defensively if the economy and the consumer does stall, mcdonald's tends to outperform a lot of the other restaurant companies in terms of same square sales. offensively they just announced at a december analyst day

earlier in the month that they're looking at a better global opportunity for new unit growth which should propel the financials over the next several years and make the multiple a little bit higher, more in line with some of the other qsr companies that are out there. >> if it works in every environment, as you suggest, why does has it lagged the market this year? >> i think it's lagged the market for one big reason, the summer selloff in terms of g glp-1, and the stock got hit from about these levels all the way down to 240. it's kind of taken a little while to work its way back up. that uncertainty over the august/september period certainly took a little bit of wind out of the sails. i think the company is regaining confidence in the investment community. i can't say the glp-1 discussion or debate won't come up again in

2024, but we'd probably grus that as a buying opportunity should the stock weaken. >> i wanted to further ask you about that. are we concerned these are structural issues for companies that we'll just have to deal with, it's going to cut into their earnings moving forward and analysts are going to need to remodel? >> we don't think so in an investable time horizon. the work we've done over the last six months shows the penetration of population -- and again, who knows? but over a multi-year period, it's not going to be significant enough to take out an incremental sales layer that maybe would have otherwise been impacted by the economy where the share shifts. the restaurant industry is such a big industry that continues to grow and take share from food at home, as you mentioned on an earlier segment, some of the

troubles that packaged food companies are having, restaurants have continued to take share from packaged food. allow the category to continue to grow even with some impact showing up over the next several years from lower calorie consumption related to glp 1. >> the story has been that restaurants are healthy. wooi pick a mcdonald's, a cava or shake shack, dave and buster, chipotle, also benefit from this restaurant economy when the consumer is not showing signs of recession? >> it's a good question, sara. we have buy ratings on those other names as well. we actually like the full-service casual dining category because those models are company-owned models. when sales increase, you get more flow through to the ebitda

and the earnings. we like lumen brands, dave & buster's as you mentioned, cheesecake factory. we think if rates have peaked, we'll tend to see rate cuts, some of the small cap growth companies will also perform well. we like cava, dutch bros, real high growth small cap names. >> why do you have a buy rating on shake shack? the stop is up butter than i think 20% since november 1st as well. >> i think the team has done a great job there. there's a little bit of a transition in the ceo's seat which i always kind of take a look at as something i need to get my arms around and get more information on. there has been an activist behind the scenes here in engaged capital that has started

to talking about a number of changes and other things that the company has done. they've done a great job, frankly, the fundamentals i think have a little bit of risk in terms of their check average and positioning with the consumer as well as beef prices which will be inflationary as we move into 2024. but some of the company-specific idiosyncratic things they're doing should continue to help on the margins and lowering gna at the business which could be an offset. >> andy, appreciate it. happy holidays. andy barish. >> thank you. coming up, more on this morning's movers including bristol-myers announcing the second m&a deal in less than a week. futures look like a higher start on wall street, dow up 30 points in the premarket. nasdaq up 30 as well. scott said, near all-time highs and continuing this amazing eight-week win streak. we'll be right back.

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open ai reportedly in talks with valuation at or above $100 billion. discussions are still in the early stages and terms of valuation haven't been nailed down. if that valuation holds it would make open ai the second most valuable startup behind elon musk's spacex. scott, i feel like a punctuation mark on the year that ai went mainstream and went wall street with nvidia the best stock of the year, up 234%. >> the valuation in 2021 was $14 billion. in january of this year it was

29. so, as you just suggested, we're going to close the calendar on this year with a $100 billion valuation apparently. >> potentially, yeah. >> it shows that, but also shows why there's so many questions about a bubble existing in this space that has fueled the run in mega cap stocks like nothing we've seen in a couple of decades really. i saw an interesting stat, too, on that note. s&p total return including dividends is up near 26%. it would only be up 9.5% without the magnificent seven. november 1st skews performance because we've had this incredible run in everything. that shows you what ai mania has meant to the market and investor returns for calendar year 2023, in large part because this story ignited everything, initially with microsoft and the investment there. that stock has had an absolutely

crazy run. >> the mdx set to finish the year 54%, the best year since 1999. obviously it's commanding premium valuation 30 times earnings, about five times above its seven year average, so on and so on. 2024 is the question. is it going to continue to be the year of ai or more of as technology has to crawl before it can run? i think that's one of the questions after so much excitement and hype and enth enthusiasm. i would note on the private side, the story of the year on rising interest rates has been marked down valuations, harder to get fund-raising unless you are in ai. we just reported a few days ago that anthropic which is a big open ai competitor was also in talks for $18.4 billion valuation, which isn't 100, but a huge leap from where it was in the last valuation round. people are throwing money at

these. >> good question will be whether a perceived laggard -- i use that worked in many, many quotes because alphabet shares did incredibly well, too, even though the narrative was that they lost ground to microsoft while barrons with a thing this weekend says why alphabet can be the best bet above the mag seven? because they expect them to grow as fast as microsoft. trades 20 times earnings. people look at it as one of the chepest place of the mag seven where multiples have expanded it allot. meta still deemed to be one of the cheapest plays if you look at valuation there along with alphabet. >> looking for alternatives to the microsoft, individuals, the market darlings around ai. one more look at futures as we head into the opening bell. still higher. they lost a little steam in the early ak shuvenlt it looks like we're set to continue this run we've had going on eight weeks

plus. nasdaq up 33 and s&p up .7% "squawk on the street" will be right back in the opening bell. ? you're old enough to do it in the sky now. but it's gross. there is no way we're landing. are you sure no one is watching? gwen mallard! do it now, or we leave without you. ok.

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as we head into the opening bell, one stock to watch today, apple. a setback. a u.s. trade tribunal's imports on the company's watches goes into effect today after the biden administration declined to veto the group's decision. the ban, based on a complaint from medical monitor technology company, mossimo, bars imports of sales of apple watches that uses patented technology for reading blood oxygen level. if you go online, apple has already taken these offending watch models off the store. locations expected to open today without the latest of the apple watches. i guess the cheaper se is okay, not part of the ruling. >> it's the series 9 and the ultra 2 are the ones that will be banned.

appeal can go to court and appeal which you presume that they will. we'll see what happens there. analysts are trying to model what this really is going to mean in the big picture. >> the cnbc realtime exchange. at the big board, the -- security team at the new york stock exchange being recognized for their work to keep us safe and the building safe every day of the year. we thank them, of course. at the nasdaq, non-profit group make-a-wish foundation ringing the opening bell. you were saying as far as the apple watch is concerned, not expected to make a huge dent. >> morgan stanley says for every week they can't sell in the united states it will lose roughly $135 million in revenue, 0.1% of march quarter revenue.

not a massive game-changer, but nonetheless something to keep an eye on when you're already wondering about where the company's growth rates are. they've had three consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth. so figuring that that's going to turn around. one reason why the stock is up 50% year-to-date. people are still placing their long-term bets on apple, that this is maybe just a blipuntil they can figure it out. and even if it's a little longer lasting thing, it's not going to have a material impact, enough to cause analysts to change their ratings. >> apparently they can do software work-arounds to vishg vent the patent issue. they can temporarily eliminate the feature or settle the patent dispute directly with mossimo. the ustr under ambassador katherine tie was going to come and bail out apple in the last minute? that did not happen. not having a lot of effect on

apple's stock. dow opening 15 points higher. a big driver of this entire rally has been the bond market. i think we have to check what's happening here, a little firmer yield. as long as we see the yield below 4%, i think the market is pretty good with the fact that it's been a lower yield and a down trend. on friday, we should just mention the latest indicator was the pce, the preferred inflation report. it continued to show progress on disinflings. we even got a negative number on that november month to month year. core cpe which is what the fed pays close attention to, it's still elevated but it's coming down and below that 4% level. the market -- still the trend is your friend when it comes to the inflation numbers and the market has embraced that. >> ten-year 390. jay powell at the last fed meeting -- front ran the number a little bit. made it clear they were expecting it to be a positive number, maybe even a little

better than they had expected. i think, look, you cover this closer than anybody. what global central banks are doing as well. news out of japan, for example. nobody is really getting hockish or even talking about or thinking about -- thinking about getting hawkish any time soon. >> except for maybe japan. it's still innegative rates and continues to surprise the market with how gun shy it has been to exit out of negative rates. we finally got sort of a policy speech from the bank of japan governor saying, if inflation takes hold and we continue to see the trend, we'll normalize. you're right. it hasn't been a hockish move or environment. that's what's been the primary driver around this feeling and the big wins we've seen in the stock markets here and abroad. you wonder how much is already factored in at this point. it's not just the fed. the market is believing they're all going to be cutting into

next year as inflation comes down and they try to normalize, to preserve their soft landings, too. can europe pull it off with germany basically in recession? that's another question. >> europe maybe is getting a little bit of a lift again from what's gone on in natural gas. if you take a look at where nat ram gas prices have been, that was a savior for the european economy last winner. is it down 5% yet again this morning? warm weather last winter, warm weather again this winter has helped the european company, surrounding the war in eastern europe, one of those wild cards for 2024, geopolitics between israel-hamas, the war in eastern europe and who knows what else? you never know what the impact of that can be on a flashpoint moment. >> it's why we've been watching this shipping issue very carefully. maris, the second largest shipper in the world, we talked

to them last week. they're going to be resuming sending tankers through the red sea after this u.s.-led coalition began providing naval security against the attacks by the iranian-based houthi rebels. it's a big deal, because before that they had to reroute through africa and add several weeks to shipping as well. if they are able to proceed with the suez canal, it represents some normalization. there are still reports on saturday, for instance, the taker operating off the coast of india was attacked by a drone. so these attacks are still happening. now we have this u.s.-led coalition in place to try to stop it. maybe we can see some stabilization in shipping rates. those worries about inflation flaring up again and what that was going to do, that calms us down a little bit. bp is still not doing it and we're waiting for other shipping giants as well. they're still not going through that channel. >> container prices surged to

$10,000. so you get 30% of global container traffic, not total trade, but container traffic goes through the suez which is why it's important to get traffic moving in some sort of normal way through there to relieve some of those concerns as well. international news as well, intel, as israel grants intel $3 billion for a chip factory there. intel has been an interesting stock. it doesn't get talked about nearly as much as the mag seven. >> it's had a nice comeback. >> it has had a nice comeback. i think it's one of the better performing technology stocks. there's three month, up 44%. gives you an idea, it's not just a mag seven world and everybody is living in it. some other stocks have done quite well, broad come, for example, which is deemed to be a cheaper way. multiples expanded a good

amount. >> it's getting -- planning to get grants as well from the u.s., from the champio.h.i.p.s. from ohio. before we button up the international conversation, brent crude oil is higher, up 2.5%. it's also had a nice run just in the last few weeks here on improving financial conditions overall. thoughts about improving demand as well. but you also have to watch the geopolitics. when you have iran entering the story when it comes to israel-hamas, so far it hasn't been in a big way, but we watch the headlines because, of course, iran is the major oil producer and potential impact on prices. >> you don't want to mention the falling dollar? it's been down -- commodities have been up and there's obviously the relationship there. so we're going to see what happens with this more dovish central bank here in the united states if the dollar continues

to decline. >> so dollar is down, so glad you mentioned it. down 1.8% this month. that's a big move for a dollar, month to date. it's been on the back of lower treasury yields. dollar had been running up on higher rates. we're totally reversing that. it's good for liquidity, for the whole risk on trade. everybody seems to want the weaker dollar, however, it's a relative trade. if the federal reserve is more dovish than the european central bank and the bank of england, it can continue to weaken. so far it has sounded more dove virn. europe's economy arguably is in worse shape than the u.s. economy. if europe has to cut rates first or cut rates bigger, then that could reverse a little bit. dovish central banks not necessarily completely mean a weaker dollar. i think we have to look at the relative performance of the economy as well, and the u.s. has been doing better.

>> there's the move on your screen, what the euro has done versus the dollar. >> all those multi nationals complained about it all year long on the run-up on rates and the strength of u.s. dollar. no question they'll get relief from this move weaker on the u.s. dollar. as far as other movers we're watching, scott just mentioned some of the winners of the year wii continue to make highs here. nvidia up another percent. meta continues to be higher. these are the best stocks of the year. i know in the sports world, we were both watching this manchester united deal. you think it's a big deal. why? >> it is a big deal because these teams don't change ownership that often. now the glazer familiarly is going to keep control. this is a 25% stake. i think it underscores where valuations are going for the most valuable and important and iconic sports properties around the world. manchester united certainly is one of those.

even though their performance of late on the pitch hasn't really matched what the valuation has done off pitch, but you've had some of the most iconic players wear those kits, whether it's beckham oren nall dough or a countless number of all the other soccer stars throughout history have played for that franchise. i say before, the big four in the premier league all have u.s. own shirngs liverpool, man u., chelsea and arsenal. man city, of course, is owned by the uae's shake mansour and they've won the preerpship a couple years running, i believe, and still fighting for the top spot once again behind will fred's arsenal. i think of will fred when we talk about arsenal. >> a diehard fan. the news here that billionaire jim radcliffe who is british, it's going to get 25%

stake of the club. the stock has been down this year because this has been a long, drawn-out process of a sale and i think has been relatively disappointing from the original news that the glazer family was going to put this team up for sale. the fact that they're involved, i think people are not that thrilled about that and it's not a takeover of the team in a necessarily meaningful way. he's going to get 25% of the shares as well and 25% of the listed shares, invest $300 million into the club and get two board seats. not full control here. jim radcliffe is a minority owner of the mercedes-benz f 1 team as well, in case you were wondering about that. valuations to your point overall continue to just go up and defy glavt on these teams. >> media has been in the news of late because of merger

speculation. nba rights deal is coming up. is netflix going to emerge as a player there? i just think the whole dynamic around investing in sports. you've seen people like mark lazry, billionaire investor, start a new sports fund, make different investments in second and third tier sports after cashing out with a seven or eight bagger from his investment in the milwaukee bucks basketball team. billionaires continue to look at sports as a place to make longer-term investments. >> no question about it. we want to talk about bitcoin for a second. this was a year everyone thought bitcoin would fall apart, sbf went to jail, cz got fined and had to leave binance. bitcoin up more than 160%, outperforming the stock market. >> outperforming everything. the best returning asset class in 2023. >> not just bitcoin, other

cryptos like solana backed by sbf as well, had a pretty goodyear. there's a lot of hope for -- january 10th is a deadline by the sec of whether they're going to approve the first spot in bitcoin etf and whether that's going to drive a whole nother wave of demand. that's part of it. you've also got this having in 2024, this quadrennial event that limits the supply growth of bitcoin. that's another reason people are bullish. it's also been tested during things like the regional bank crisis and some of these frauds, and jamie dimon saying he would ban it if he was part of the government. >> the pet rock. >> and everyone continues to buy, having another goodyear. >> best performing asset dallas going. i think a large part of it is what you said about expectations of the etf. we'll see how that progresses. blackrock, for example, that stock is up a lot since the

november 1st rally, too, as there's growing optimism around crypto and whether you'll have more access for investors and ways to invest in those products. >> absolutely. just watching nike. a tough 12% down day on friday which was a post earnings reaction. does not appear so even though you have the dow higher today. the concern around nike now is a demand concern because nike gave investors, you could argue, something to be excited about which was, they say, we're going to turn up the profitable growth part of the equation, turn up margins. we've got scale, lower shipping costs. we're going to streamline the organization through layoffs and focus on the winning products. the market chose to ignore that and focus instead on the lower demand environment. i do wonder if this over the next few weeks is going to be something neek key or athletic kind of wear specific or something broader about the

consumer prierment changing even though we get good holiday numbers like we got today. but other companies like a walmart and a target have been warning about the weakness in discretionary spending. nike will be important in that sense. >> i think target is on my list of stocks that have done incredibly well since november 1st. i believe it's up 20, 25%? >> had been a big laggards. >> they had a massive catchup trade. bristol-myers has been on a spending spree. i think it's fair to say, they announced another deal today, $4.1 billion. they said they'd buy karoun nah for 14 billion. piper sandler says they've seen a breakout. you look at the key etfs above their 50 and 200-day moving

averages. keep an eye on that space as well. other potential m&a around that and maybe everything else as you feel there's a little bit of an awakening. >> has been a disappointing sector over the last few years. biotech, health care in general. unless you're in obesity, not much to be excited about. did you see jonathan krin ski, he lies health care as a contrarian winning pick because it's underperformed so much for 2024. with bristol-myers, you're right, another multibillion dollar deal here. i guess bristol is dealing with top drugs. it has a blood cancer treatment and blood thinner, eliquis, they're facing generic competition. schizophrenia medication, for instance and this cancer drug business it's buying today raise bio. if you look, up 100% on this

$4.1 billion deal. >> health care has been a big disappointment. now negative by a fraction. nonetheless, it hasn't done anything. is biotech going to have another down year after what you just said was a couple in a row? analysts are placing bets on strategists saying it's not going to go through in a row. krin ski has been negative of late, more of ap technical strategist than anything. nonetheless, a lot of the bears are seemingly throwing in the towel of late and maybe some thinking you have a reversion to give some back are changing their tune. >> because it's going the other way. s&p up .25%. energy leading the charge. tech is high again. what's lagging? health care and consumer staples which have both lagged all year long. as we head to break, we want to hit bonds quickly.

treasuries have been a big underpinning of this rally. the rally in bounds as well which has taken yields sharply lower. ten-year note yield goes lower again, 3.899, not a whole lot in the way of data. two-year a little further at 4.37%. we'll be right back here on "squawk on the street."

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nasdaq 100 continues its remarkable win streak. here is who is leading the way. semiconductors, look at intel up 2%, agreeing to build a $25 billion chip plant in southern israel after securing more than $3 billion in incentives from the israeli government. as scott mentioned earlier has been a sneaky winner all year long. amd at the top of the list today and dollar tree, a little bit of a rebound. we'll hit the movers for you in this market rally when we come right back. the award-winning trading platforms. bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop

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2024 could be a busy year for media m&a activity overall. julia boorstin joining us to explain. good morning, julia. >> scott, consolidation may be the answer to the pressure the media giants are face, cord cutting, weak ad market, and content subscribers and sports right from the deep pocketed

tech giants. paramount global is in focus after its ceo and warner brothers discovery ceo david zaslav met in new york last week according sources. sherri redstone and david elton's skydance and red bird and talks with apollo according to sources as well. paramount did suffer a 14% decline in linear ad revenue last quarter and face debt payments. warner brothers discovery would benefit from paramount's coveted nfl rights on cbs. if warner brothers discovery is not a buyer, it will be free to itself as of april 8th when restrictions from its warner media deal expire. now sources say that comcast might be interested in pairing its nbc universal with is cnbc's parent company with warner brothers discovery, to create a more powerful streamer combing max with nbc's nfl rights and access to the nfl could also drive deals for the likes of

amazon, apple and google's youtube. all of those tech giants are. >> the nba's next rights deal which will be negotiated soon. the other sports wild card is espn. bob iger said he's bringing it direct to consumer next year and we're watching to see if he decides to sell disney's linear network. more assets could be in play. last week lionsgate spinning off stars, sources tell me it could roll up the likes of the history channel and bet to take them digital as it has with its stars streamer. the real catalyst that could kick off a wave of change in the industry is sherri redstone and what she decides to do with her properties and guys, i have to say, there was no comment from any of the media giants, but we know that they are having these conversations. still very early days, but they are talking. >> what about this disney india deal with reliance? what do you know about that? how big of a deal is that? >> disney has confirmed they

are -- they have had talks about potentially merging or combing or selling their india assets. the key thing we have to remember here is that those india sky tv assets are just less valuable than their streaming assets here in the u.s. economic "times" has reported that reliance, a major india media conglomerate has inked a deal with disney for that. i have not been able to confirm that yet, but it has been reported. >> yes. it will be interesting. disney, a laggard this year up only 4.5%. down again this morning. thank you, julia. julia boorstin. coming up, one analyst shares his top pick for 2024, a stock that is up more than 45% in the past two months. keep it here on "squawk on the street."

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can . good tuesday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with scott wapner live from post nine of the new york stock exchange. carl and david have the morning off. take a look at stocks. we aren't too far away from

record highs. what did you say, 30 points on the s&p or so? >> 4796 is the closing high for the s&p 500. you have to get above 4800, 4818 for the intraday. it appears that santa claus rally, which starts on december 22nd, traditionally, is in full swing. >> full swing. the nasdaq also higher about a 0.3%. fueled by some of the semiconductors, nvidia, meta, they're all higher this morning. ndx, nasdaq 100, a few points away from its record high. treasuries we're continuing to see some buying especially on the 10-year side of things. 10-year note yield lower at 390. the lows of the cycle 3.88 or so. the 2-year yield firmer today up 4.37%, but the trend has been to buy bonds as well as stocks. we're 30 minutes into the trading session, here are three big movers we're watching. starting with intel, israel's government granting the company

$3.2 billion for a $25 billion chip plant in that country. more details on that move later this hour. plus, manchester united shares moving higher after billionaire jim radcliffe signed a deal to buy a quarter of man dheser united for $33 a share. a deal for bristol-myers acquiring rayzebio for about $4.1 billion. 62.50 per share in cash. bristol-myers is down 27% year to date. scott, if you look at the market backdrop right now and just how it climbed eight weeks strong, for instance, on the back of central bank speak, on the back of falling inflation rates and better economic data, i think the chart of the day that i pulled out here, shows the expectation and how they've changed for major central banks. the fed, the bank of england and european central bank, wall street is expecting next year to be in cutting mode from all of the central banks. if you look at the graph of

that's where rates are expected to go, obviously, you saw that the run up this year that's the high, and then next year, wall street is increasingly getting comfortable with the fact that inflation is coming down to the point where they can begin to normalize and bring rates lower. the thing is, they're now looking for about almost 5 -- around five cuts each from some of these major central banks. is that going to be too optimistic? is it right on target? i think that's going to be the question of the year. as of this morning, swaps market looking at almost 100% odds that the fed goes in march. >> the market has been right. i think you could say the fed has had to come to the market, and that's what happened at the last meeting and why where we are now. in terms of the rally that's happened since, really, a waller started rally that powell didn't do anything to throw cold water on and why stocks were able to continue to climb. we're going to debate whether the market is over its skis at all in terms of the number of

cuts it dmptsz 20 -- expects in 2024 and we have to wait and see, but we have inflation going in the right direction and the economy has been holding up, strong but not too strong, and that's been a good part of the story too. >> the risk is they could flair inflation up again if financial conditions loosen too much. we've seen financial conditions loosen, weaker dollar, strong stocks, lower bond yields. that all helps pad the economy, but does it make that last mile harder to fight? we're still above target on inflation. fed wants it at 2% and think they can get there by the end of next year. secretary yellen thinks we'll have a 2 in front of inflation at the end of next year and might feel more comfortable lowering rates. i think one of the questions is, do they risk sparking it. the other question what happens to the economy, and this could mean even more rate cuts if things weaken. we talked about the credit card delinquency. it's worth highlighting what's happening here because we are

getting back up past the prepandemic level a little bit. it's not super alateralrm org anything, but if you break it down, those especially who have auto and student loan debt, that's where you're seeing the biggest delinquency rates and spikes that go above the prepandemic rates. it's something to watch. we know that auto loans, auto rates have skyrocketed, right, with rising rates and sloon spamtss are -- student loan payments are back on. we watch the consumer because that's been the question mark and saving grace of this economy. >> one of the other questions we're going to be debating, too, as we turn the calendar, you will be talking about this a bunch, is whether the fed is going to make the same mistake on the back end that it did on the front end of sort of waiting too long to start hiking, whether they wait too long to start cutting and snatch defeat from the jaws of victim. that will be part of the conversation too, as we look towards the trajectory of the

federal reserve. when it's going to start cutting, whether it waits too long and risks the story that they've been able to tell that's been pretty good to this point. >> they don't want to wait too long or be premature. they have to stick the landing and it's art, a balancing act. usually they stay too long his torrey en -- historically. fellow reserve economist claudia and wolf investment strategist chris. claudia, you've done a ton of work at the fed and post-fed. do you think the market's expectations are right for what's going to happen next year? >> marginally. i don't think we'll see a cut in the first quarter unless we get two good cpis and you don't get them every month, right. i think may is completely on the table. the fed is data driven, and inflation has been moving down and they want to hit 2, not under 2. i think we're going to continue to see momentum with inflation

in a good direction going down, and they're going to respond to that. >> do you think it's a bigger risk at this point that the inflation remains sticky and surprises to the upside or to the downside with a "d" in front of it? >> frankly, i think the last mile is going to be the easiest of the inflation cycle. we're starting to see in particular some of the pricing, the extraordinary pricing power businesses have lhad due to covd disruptions. really that's the last one. as that starts to unwind and we're seeing some of it in the discussions about the holiday shopping, well that gets us to 2. it could get us there pretty quickly, frankly. >> wow. that's pretty powerful stuff, chris. if claudia is right, then the market is not over its skis in the rally we've seen since the beginning of november. >> thanks for having me on. really appreciate it. i think that we're very much priced per perfection, right.

if you think about the rally we've seen, we've only priced in now the soft landing scenario. as we get into the spring and early summer, i think the fed is going to be cutting for the wrong reasons. i think the economy is going to have slowed, the lagged impacts of rate hikes will hit the economy, getting pushed out because of the wealth effect that's happened in the last few months here, and it will be too late, in fact. i don't disagree they will be cutting generally q2 our base case, but i don't think it will be enough at that point in time. >> you don't think that fed right now should be able to de chair victim, that they actually believe that they've pulled this off and we shouldn't look at the data whether it's the strong economy, consumer spending, holiday up 3.1, as sara and i were suggesting was the data from mastercard earlier and said the story is pretty good? >> i think there's a couple big swing factors. one is, i think employment will

stay stronger for longer and i think there's a stickiness with wage growth. that cuts two ways, right. obviously, real wage growth is positive, helping lower income workers and some spending, but on the other side the businesses that we speak with, our companies and analysts, companies are still in 4 to 5% wage growth over the next couple years. oil prices are a huge swing factor, right. and our view with oil has been higher for longer. opec plus wants to put a bid in there, and that can change this inflation narrative very quickly, particularly if we start to see some stabilization of china some time in the first half of '24. >> it's back to the old hard landing versus soft landing debate we were having at the beginning of this year, too, and most expected a hard landing and we got a soft landing. do we get that again? are you going to take the other side of chris' argument? >> i have been -- soft landing has been my call from the very beginning, and we have gone

through almost two years of being told a recession is right around the corner. at this point we can see the runway. 2023 was the impossible happening. inflation came down really fast, and unemployment, we've got our longest run under 4% since 1960s. like this was not in the models. it's still going to be a bumpy ride and no one should be declaring victim. jay powell is not flying this airplane. the fed has had almost nothing to do with this cycle in the real economy. they have created lots of high drama in financial markets and expect them to do that next year. i hope they don't break anything. that's my biggest risk scenario. things are lining up. the unforeseen things could happen that takes this off the table. i hear you on the oil prices. that's always a wild card. we have had an extremely bad of luck, really bad stuff. >> but there's a -- doesn't that tell us whether we're going into a recession? your rule? >> the rule is -- i am the labor

market is great. like that logic is all based off the unemployment rates starting to move up. we have had the unemployment rate stay low. it drifted up some, but largely that's a response to the fact that we've finally had more of the workers go to deal with the labor shortages. we're at a rebalancing. that will have an effect on slowing wage growth some as we move out of the labor shortage. we are not, again no victory lap. we could still go into a recession. that's an indicator are we in one? we are not in one. we should be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. >> and chris, final word to you, i think you've been mostly negative all year long, so you must have been surprised to see how resilient the economy and the market has been, but it sounds like you're not -- it's not changing your mind about next year? >> we're not buying it for next year. tactically bullish in the fall and had to because we saw, you know, the conditions right for year-end rally performance chasing. as we enter 2024 a lot of

conditions we saw that were tailwinds in 2003, the fed pumped liquidity into the system, excess savings and so forth, we don't see as existing in the new year. it's about what's priced in from a market's point of view and we're trading at 19 times forward earnings and we just see he that the market is pricing in very much 100% odds of a soft landing and we think there are other outcomes that are equally, if not higher probability in 2024. >> all right. good debate. good discussion. thank you, guys. we'll continue it into the new year. claude and chris. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> thank you. new haugs data out this morning revealing october home prices posted the biggest gain of the year. diana olick has the latest there. >> home prices rose 4.8% in october compared with october of last year this according to the case-shiller home price index. that is a jump from the 4% annual increase in september and marks the strongest annual gain this year president strength in

home prices came, despite a sharp rise in mortgage interest rates in october. the average crossed 8% on october 19th according to mortgage news daily. that was the highest level in more than two decades. rates dropped steadily through november and more sharply in december with the 30-year hovering around 6.7%. so with rates lower, much lower, home prices really have nowhere to go but up in the coming year, especially given still very low inventory. i want to go local on the prices. among the top 20 cities, detroit reported the largest year over with year gain in home prices at 8.1%, san diego followed, 7.2% and new york 7.1% gain. home prices in oregon fell 0.6% and that was the only city in the index showing lower prices in october stversus a year ago. home prices have increased and are 1% higher than the peak in 2022. prices have recovered all the losses recorded in the second

half of last year. back to you. >> we were just talking about how the market has been celebrating the lower inflation numbers. this isn't -- we know housing has been an anomaly because of supply issues but the high numbers in the face of higher mortgage rates, now seeing lower mortgage rates, could we continue to see prices -- >> absolutely. >> isn't that a big problem for the fed? >> absolutely. every time you think prices are going to come down, didn't happen. more gait rates go up, prices come down, didn't happen. it has to do with the shortage of homes for sale and strong demand. you have millennials coming in wanting to buy, gen-z getting into the market. without more inventory nothing in this market is going to look like it's supposed to. >> great. thank you, diana. glad we have you here to explain it. diana olick. as we head to break here's our road map including citi naming one dow stock a pick for 2024. it's got strong momentum up 45%

over the past two months. it's the casino hunger games as companies compete for a big prize, a license in or around new york city. and it's the largest company investment in israel's history. as intel announces new details regarding its $25 billion chip resqwk. plan mo "ua on the street" straight ahead. don't go anywhere. ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ a force to be reckon with. no, not you saquon. hm? you! your business bank account with quickbooks money, now earns 5% apy. 5% apy? that's new!

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the street." there is serious pressure, wti and brent coming off their best week since october. john kilduff joins us now. happy holidays. good to see you. >> same here. good to see you. >> thank you. 75, where wti sits today. what's your outlook for the year ahead? >> the year ahead we'll scale some heights temporarily but there's big headwinds here in terms of the economic outlook. the reason the global central banks are cutting rates is not just because the inflation situation has potentially been tame, but also because the economic outlook is softening. that's going to speak right to crude oil demand and energy demand for the next year and with the united states doing what it's doing in terms of record production, sky high exports in crude oil and refined products, opec plus can't cut enough to sustain a price much above where we are right now actually.

>> does iran remain the biggest wild card in how we need to think geopolitically, whether it's what's happening as we speak in the suez or, obviously, the situation in gaza? >> it does. iran is sort of the after the holiday deal for mthis market. they keep trying to make trouble, which they're effective at, but that's the limit of it. it's some trouble. they are not going to be blocking the strait of hormuz any time soon and careful about who and what shipping assets they target and to the extent they make trouble for the oil market in a bigger way, they will have pressure, maybe not from the united states, they won't listen to us, but they will listen to china who will pay a dear price for any supply disruption events that would be engineered by iran. we're hardly alone in terms of pounding the table and telling the regional actors to calm it down, and in terms of this red sea, these red sea issues we're

having in the suez canal my money is on the fifth fleet to keep the navigational waters open. i think that's the smart money bet. for the fear and everything that gets soaked into the market from time to time the reality is just that, that we're already seeing mersing and lloyd will return tomorrow and again, it's just the -- >> its appears to be getting worse in some places even if better on the shipping channels. the iranian backed groups are launching drones and attacks against american troops in places like iraq. president biden ordering some air strikes now against them. we've a had the iranian foreign ministry issuing a bigger threat to israel saying tel aviv needs to calm down after one of its commanders was killed in syria. feels like it's moving in the other direction. what needs to be factored in here as far as the energy

equation fit gets worse? >> i think the word is perspective. everything you mentioned is, obviously, troublesome. no doubt about it. but we are seeing horrific, you know, fronts to various countries over the years. the houthis launched a rocket missile against the saudi arabia export facility in 2019. the market didn't budge. we had -- there was that assassination of general soul la manny from iran, nothing happened. so again, these -- we will have these pinpick events. there may be some boost in the oil price that you're seeing today, plus it's a traded market so they're getting that advantage, but in terms of this escalating at some point in time the iranians will cross a line that will get them put back in their box or their agents, like the houthis. i don't expect the houthis to run free throughout that region without consequence, like you saw in northern iraq over the weekend you referenced in terms of u.s. military strikes, same thing will happen here. the shipping lanes will be kept

open, the oil will flow and the bigger problem will return to being how the relative over supply versus the demand projections that we all argue over. >> first six months of the new year are we going under 70? >> you'll see tests of it, absolutely, because the weather is not cooperating. we are going to have a glancing blow of cold air here in north america and europe in the first part of january the way the atmospheres are setting up, but after that it's looking like a super warm january the middle of the month into the balance and for the natural gas market and heating oil market it's game over. we will have another bust of winter here in north america it looks like in terms of heating demand and that's going to hurt because the diesel part of the barrel here for crude was -- has been the saving grace for the industry for several years now. to the extent we lose that, then you're really going to see prices get sloppy all around. >> appreciate it. be well. we'll talk to you soon. >> thank you. you too. >> thanks.

staying with energy our pippa stevens is looking at one asset outperforming its peers this year. pippa? >> nuclear power is having a renaissance this year and as we mentioned behind the industry that grows that's pushing up prices. stock prices have gained 80% this year trading at a nearly 16-year high. according to data from usc. they could be heading higher given an under supply to market. prices collapsed in 2011 after the fukushima disaster, but now new reactors are being built and we haven't seen a lot of new production follow. global uranium demand is for example at 175 million pounds while supply 144 million pounds according to estimates from sprauts asset management. through rounds of sanctions against russia the nuclear industry has not been targeted because they play a key role controlling around 38% of global

uranium conversion and enrichment but there are growing calls in washington to sanction the industry which could lead to a shortage. investors have taken note. the ura are two funds that scratch the space, 47% and 54% this year respectively. >> a bit of an under the radar play here. >> yeah. thank you for that. pippa stevens. still to ome, it is the hunger games for casino companies vying for a big prize which is a license in and around new york city. we have new details when we come back. on the broadening of the rally, russell 2000 hitting an over 20-month high up a half a percent. we'll be right back.

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going, got you where you want to be. we're the partners for your next move. everbank. advantage, you. it is the holy grail for the casino world. a license in and around new york city. gross revenues of $5 billion in revenue, competition is fierce. what are we learning? >> new york city is a jackpot in part because there are so many people here, 23 million people live in the area. you've got 50 million visitors

annually. no wonder nearly a dozen companies are making a bid for three casino licenses in or around the nation's biggest city. at a party thrown bit biggest casino company hopes a new year brings a new reason to celebrate. >> this is a destination resort in new york. it's worth all the effort we put in and we're excited about it. it's market that can't be replicated. >> new york is the holy grail for casino expansion. >> reporter: howard glazer spearheaded the efforts at legalizing casino gambling nearly a decade ago. >> this may be the last greatest untapped market in the world estimated $5 billion in revenue, gross revenue. >> reporter: las vegas sands has spent years and tens of millions of dollars lobbying for a license to build a casino resort at the nassau coliseum on long island. community support is crucial. caesars publicizing the businesses that back its bid

with s build l green and jay-z to renovate an office tower. balis bought trump links betting they will like the jobs the casinos bring. mgm operates empire city in yonkers but proposed a world-class resort with a concert venue and resorts world 2 already offers slots in queens, luxury casino brand wynn resorts and real estate developer related company revealed a $10 billion plan for the hudson yards, a ritzy destination in queens. they have partnered with hard rock owned by the seminole tribe in florida to overhaul citi field into a retail development, planned project costs $8 billion. can you get a return on that investment without a casino license? >> oh, i think that's pretty challenging. i think the scope of, you know,

$8 billion cannot be justified unless you are able to maximize the amazing population. >> reporter: sands has an ambitious $6 billion commitment. it says it will build something, even if it doesn't land a gaming license. why does that make sense for las vegas sands? >> it doesn't financially. we did it because we want to show this community we're committed short and long term. >> he said the holy grail but also the state is running a hunger games competition pitting the companies against each other to bid how much they're willing to pay in taxes. the state here is really looking for tax revenue. it may place preference on those companies who are willing to ante up. but the license depends on community support, local leaders may prioritize other kinds of investments. the number of jobs that you're going to offer, the ability to attract new tourism dollars and the highest bidder in those cases may be different than who

the state thinks. it's going to come together. by the way, i've seen some estimates as high as $8 billion in annual gross gaming revenue which would make new york the bigger gaming capital in the united states than las vegas. >> i'm very interested in this. like scott and i had a roulette table in hudson yards after this. how are they going to make this decision and who makes the decision. >> >> well, for one thing the mayor of new york city says he thinks that there should be something in new york city. so these farther flung competitors, you know, out on long island nor yonkers, the new york city mayor is like who cares about that. i want casino dollars and casino tourists in new york city. there's support for local leaders. but it's very hard to get anything done in new york city. howard glazer who i interviewed in the story said, they had an easier time getting casinos in

communist china than they're going to have getting a casino in new york city. >> let me ask you a question about stock performances because outside of mgm, why have the other three majors, wynn, caesars, las vegas sands, done poorly and under performed the market when we were talking about at the beginning of our show this continuing to spend on experiences, restaurants, cruise lines have done incredibly well, airline stocks have done well. >> it's not only that, caesars keeps setting records. it keeps coming out of the box and just like yeah, we made more money than we've made before ever. >> how come it's not translating? >> i think investors in macao, the gaming capital of the world and dwarfs anything in the united states, dwarfs las vegas in a regular year, even this year as the slow ramp up from coronavirus continues they will outpace las vegas. i think investors have completely discounted any rebound in inmacao.

singapore is on fire the most lucrative property in the world and las vegas sands is not getting any kind of bump in the stock from that. caesars, record breaking, i don't know. maybe there's a lot of trepidation around what's coming and whether consumers keep spending. >> mgm is up 30%. that's not the problem. >> look at draftkings. draftkings is up 200% year to date. >> is that why the casinos are getting hit? >> no. you cannot argue with what brick and mortar continues to do in terms of gaming revenue and the margins in physical casinos is far superior to the sports betting. >> all right. we'll watch it. thank you. >> thank you. still to come, the white house declines to veto a u.s. trade tribunal decision to ban imports ofpp ale watches. we've got the details after a break.

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welcome back. i'm silvana henao with your cnbc news update. israeli diplomat ron dermer is scheduled to meet with white house and state department officials today to discuss israel's war with hamas. dermer is one of prime minister benjamin netanyahu's most senior advisors and a member of the country's war cabinet. his visit comes as netanyahu pledged to deepen the war efforts despite washington's push to lower the intensity of the fighting in gaza. a spokesperson for the national security council says the u.s. air strikes hit sites in iraq where militants have been targeting american troops. biden authorized retaliatory strikes after three service members were hurt in a christmas day drone attack. beijing broke a more than 70-year-old record. the city experienced more than 300 hours of sub-zero temperatures since december 11th, something it hasn't seen

since 1951. the cold also brought in blizzards and significant snowfall. sara. not a record i want to be a part of. >> no. it's been very warm here. thank you, sylvania. it is a day after christmas and people around the country are already playing with their new gifts but which tech company won the holiday? steve covac has that for us. steve, what's the verdict? >> yeah. so look, i do this every year, look at the app store data and see what kind of bubble to the top of the app store rankings xwivgs you a snapshot in time of what people are buying on christmas and the trends for new iphone owners plus the accessories, the buying in the big winner here. it is meta. the quest app at the top of the store on christmas day and that means likely a lot of people acty victiming new headsets. meta has a head start on mixed reality and apple says it's going to launch its vision pro soon, maybe as soon as february. that plays into the gaming idea, but also gaming is another big theme besides virtual reality.

playstation 11, this is the first year consoles are available after all the supply chain problems over the first three years. some mainstays here behind meta you have alexa, that means lots of echos under christmas trees. we got to talk about the apple watch here because the ban for the series 9 and ultra 2 goes into effect today. folks who got gift cards for the apple store not going to be able to buy one, guys. >> what's the end game? i mentioned earlier as far as i read, apple can appeal this in court, sdplekts. >> yes. they tried a last-minute appeal with the itc, the agency that put into effect this ban and lost that. over the weekend they had until december 25th, the biden administration, to veto this. they did not do that either. the ban is in effect now and basically, scott, they have to work around these patent issues, whether that's on the software level, the hardware level or

both. like to put dollars on this, morgan stanley has a note saying, you know, for every week that this ban continues in the march quarter starting after the new year, they have -- they could potentially lose or they won't be getting rather $135 million of revenue. overall this could have a 2% impact on revenue for apple for the quarter if it goes the entire quarter without figuring this problem out. as you know, as apple tries to look to return to the top line revenue growth in the holiday quarter and throughout 2024, they're going to need every advantage they can get because demand has been low for smartphones and the vision pro will not do it, the renewed growth in services isn't going to do it so they need every little bit they can get and this is a big ding for them, scott. >> just crossing the wires, steve and scott, apple filing an emergency motion with the u.s. appeals court for the apple watch import ban and another date here, they're asking the appeals court to pause the ban until u.s. customs makes a

decision on january 12th on whether apple's watches avoid mossimo. >> they'll keep trying that. look, it sounds like that's a software level they might be looking at too. right now, sara, the watches are banned. you cannot go into an apple store and pick one up. cheaper versions that don't have the oxygen sensor at the heart of this patent issue that that's the cheaper version, but these are the latest and greatest apple watches and only came out in september, and now they're banned in the united states the most lucrative market for apple. it's a big loss for them, scott. >> no doubt. thank you. steve covac with the latest on apple. another big tech play, the year of efficiency, has it paid off for smeta? ste stifel's mark kelly joins us. do we pull so much forward in this year that next year is not going to be as pretty from a

performance standpoint? >> yeah. good morning. thanks for having me. happy holidays. you know, do i expect another almost 200% performance or performance in 2024? the answer is no. i do still think there's a little bit to go, not only from just being efficient, but also just, you know, some drivers on the top line as well. things from a recently announced kind of partnership with amazon, you've got things that apple has changed that actually benefit meta more than the other social names, so i think 2024 should be a good year for meta. >> i mean, you're still looking for a considerable bump in the stock, right? over $400 >> i am, yeah. one thing i really want to hammer home is some of the changes that apple has made over the last few years, negatively impacted meta and some of the other social names. apple is making it a little bit easier and better for advertisers to target people, but also, measure the effectively of their ads.

some of those changes have rolled out. one that's specific that is rolling out now, the that favors meta more than others, i'm not going to bore you with the details, but if you're a smaller advertiser you can get more granular data back from apple or meta, and that is facebook and instagram. >> what happens to the meta verse and our future amid the year of efficiency an pivot to ai? >> yeah. i think the meta verse is still an overhang. i don't want to go so far as to say that investors are comfortable with that investment because they're not. in our model we're looking for another $15 billion in operating losses for that segment in 2024. i do think the ai initiatives that they have have really, you know, proliferated and carried through the entire platform. the recommendation engine for the users has improved. we've seen time spent there improve as a result. things like dynamic creative.

coming up with different advertising units on the fly, things like that, you know, meta is using ai for those types of tools. then on the back end, things as consumers and users don't see, is using their models to basically write code more efficiently ontsd -- on the r&d team. they go beyond the reality lens. >> i'm looking at shares of snap in your coverage universe why i want to ask you about it. what do you recommend people do with the stock up more than 30% in a month and it's doubled in a few months? >> yeah. it's kind of a stay away for us at this point. we're not getting enough positive feedback from advertisers for us to get excited about the top line and then also they're really ramping their ai investments which, you know, is weighing on margins. for us it's a stay away at this point. >> the stock, the chart from

october to now is remarkable. straight up and to the right. >> it's caught a handful of upgrades from my peers. that's a part of it. we're just not hearing the excitement from advertisers. >> appreciate it. thank you. >> thanks very much. still to come, boeing one of the best stocks of the dow for 2023 and one firm thinks the stock can fly higher in the new year. the bull case from boeing after a quick break.

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we're just not hearing the a quick break.

shares boeing on a tear for the last two months up nearly 50%. this comes off the news last week that boeing delivered its first 787 dreamliner to china since 2019. joining us is jason, analyst at

citi research has a buy rating on the stock, price target of 315, which you increased. why do you think it can go up from here? >> yeah. look, there's more good news ahead of us on a couple things. first you mentioned china here in your setup. delivering the first 787, we still have 737 deliveries ahead of us, and i think most importantly for the stock and the performances in 2024, are orders right now. there's been a three-step process going on here with china, a, getting the 737 flying again, second would be getting deliveries into china and boeing has a lot of inventory that it is shipping out to china in the coming year and the third step is getting some new orders and that's pretty important for shares going forward in the sentiment around the stock. >> what's your take on management? i only ask because i speak with, you know, a couple shareholders on a fairly regular basis who

happy with the performance of the stock and think that the company is, you know, turned the corner, always seem to be looking in the periphery for wondering whether there's going to be a misstep of sorts or some sort of issue that needs to be dealt with. i think you know, you know, the kind of thing that i'm alluding to. how should we view this? >> yeah. look, i think this is a cash flow driven story. boeing has got, you know, quite a bit of debt it needs to pay down here over the next several years. we learned about cash four times a year and that seems to be those earnings seem to be areas of comfort for investors when we see the cash flow starting to flow. with the stock, you know, this wall of worry starts to build during the quarter periods where we don't know what cash flow is tracking to in any particular quarter and, you know, for good reasons. we've had some decent hiccups here over the last year in boeing's supply chain and their ability to get aircraft out into

customers' hands to generate the cash, to pay down the debt. so i think that look, this is still an -- there's still risk here for sure, execution i think is a primary risk and largely comes out of the supply chain. on that front things seem to be getting healthier, swap out in management a management team. and execution looks like it will be improving here over the next year which, again, contributes to our constructive thesis on the game. >> all right, jason. thanks for stating the case. all right. right across the board as we check the markets here just before 11:00 a.m. eastern time. the dow, there it is. it is a triple digit gain. nasdaq approaching its own high. s&p trying to hit an all-time record high. we're back in two minutes. chafs my ambition when i was starting out? survival. >> i love the word "ambition".

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before we close out the hour, s&p is up a quarter of a percent. nasdaq more than that. christina is here to look at some of the big movers during this last trading week of 2023. good morning, christina. >> good morning. there is a lot of shopping sprees going on. let's start withe astrazeneca.

attempting to boost its presence in china. now the stock has come down a little bit after the news came out earlier this morning. shares of chip design firms following friday's announcement that they put in a bid for synopsys. you can see the stock popped on friday. but both stocks are still moving. then you have chinese ev maker nio with the et-9 with much of the technology in the car designed in house. that's important. that's why the stock is up over 9%. and then you have shares of chip designer and ip licenser arm. they're up a little over 1% after a price targeted increase to $110. they cite ai design momentum that should help royalty revenue. last but not least, although intel said it would expand into

israel, the news today is the plant will be somewhat subsidized. the israel government is providing $3.2 billion to fund the newoperations which will start in 2028. the deal represents one of many expansion efforts and said it would best up to $100 billion to potentially build the largest chip making complex in ohio. but they intend to build two plants in germany as well. it is not only seeking to reestablish leadership but also build out its boundary business on advanced chip productions. that means operating like two companies, chip design and then manufacturing is a separate one. guys? >> thank you very much. >> thanks. >> i will see you back here tomorrow morning. before that halftime report at noon eastern, we're going to start where we have been talking about all day, this rally, the run towards all-time highs for the s&p 500, about 30 points or so away from that.

whether there is too much exuberance as some might expect. >> i'm curious where they spot the opportunities given it is harder and harder to find those that have been hard to find. >> probably away from the mag 7. >> look forward to it. you have one hour off and then anil oe back on. mewhe,ur live coverage will continue with "money movers" right after this break.

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♪ good tuesday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm sara with frank. today former macy's ceo terry lundgren joins us. plus, a look at the latest holiday retail sales numbers. what they say about the consumer. >> and the man who literally wrote the book on the red stone company, jim stewart here. and finally an import ban on the apple