>> go quick. >> qualcomm is breaking out. >> weiss? >> taiwan semi. >> joe? >> momentum is strong in energy. diamondback. >> dow is up triple digits at the moment. "the exchange" is now. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. it's the final two-year note auction oh of the year. you can't miss it. we'll wring you the results as bond markets look to salvage what was a rough 2023. our market guest is watching one key point he expects to trigger the fed's pivot. we'll tell you what it is in a moment. plus, a big pair of biotech b buyouts today. a look at whether more deal making is on the way and if

health care is immune from regulatory scrutiny. and tech stocks are on track to post their best year since the turn of the century. but can they avoid a sharp correction? let's start with the markets mostly higher on the final trading week of the year. dom chu has the numbers. >> i will always make time for you, kelly. the numbers are green across the board for the major indexes, the dow, s&p 500, nasdaq all posing fractional gains. about 1/3 of 1% gains uniformally across the three. at the highs of the session, the s&p 500 up roughly 19 points, and up about four points tat low. so generally positive. but the trading range again has been light. the s&p is up 4770. the dow 37,509. and the nasdaq at 15,051. another place we are seeing action close near the session highs right now is in crowd oil

prices. u.s. benchmark west texas intermediate, $75.92, 3% gain there. similar percentage move for ice brent crude futures, up to $81.49. what it is, some talk about whether or not the bottoming is happening in energy, whether there's a value trade to be had. some folks are looking at whether or not supply issues are out there. all of that is adding to the narrative at least today. the energy sector spdr, up. and natural gas prices, down $2.56. watch energy. and then intel, a dow component chipmaker, up about 4.5%, near session highs, $50.24. the israeli government is granting intel $3.2 billion to help them build a new manufacturing facility, a plant in southern israel. one of the biggest investments for a chipmaker in that country.

intel shares up on that news. it's carrying semiconductors up with it. but in a stock, an old world stock for a chipmaker that is quite a bid today on that foreign news. >> we're getting some questions about that one. a lot of people want to know if it can run into 204. dom, thank you very much, sir. markets are flirting with record highs as the major indexes come off their eighth strike week of gains, but our next guest expects a tough start to 2024, with the s&p 500 going below 4,000, and then rallying back to 5,000. but that will have to wait until after the election. good afternoon, wary. >> good morning for me. >> we have to talk to you because you're one of the few people out of consensus.

the way that the last eight weeks have broken, there's massive inflows into the s&p, consensus around soft landing or no landing and all the rest of it. are you sticking with your guns here? >> to an extent. when i wrote that forecast of trading down to 4100, that was before the feds earlier than expected pivot. so the probability of getting down to 4100 is lower than it was when i wrote that at the beginning of december. but nonetheless, i do think that the beginning of the year will be more difficult than current price actions would imply. there's a couple things going on that i think are important relative to thinking about this fed policy reaction function. first of all, if they truly have pivoted back to inflation being both that necessary and sufficient condition for rate cuts, one of the key flaws in the way that they're looking at things right now is that the

disinflation we have seen is being entirely driven by goods prices. so core goods prices in the cpi measure are falling at a 2.5% an you willized rate, almost as fast as 2003, when china first got admitted to wto. it's a second wave of deflation coming out of china, and as a consequence in the big move in the dollar. the dollar has already reversed and weakened a lot since the fed's pivot. there's a lot of signs that global trade is picking back up. global manufacturing could come out of recession. i look at the asian trade data, the korean and taiwanese numbers, and they have all turned positive. so i think if the fed is counting on goods deflation offsetting, you know, the struggles of housing inflation and core services, i think they're likely to be somewhat disappointed, which then means

in order to get the level of easing that i think we need next year in order to open the bad credit channel that is closed in large part because of the deep curve inversion, you're going to need the unemployment rate to go on. i think it will happen, but it's not a happy environment for stocks either. >> it's interesting what you said that both things can't happen. if people think manufacturing is going to turn a corn e, we should stop having core good price deflation. if manufacturing turns a corner, inflation may be stickier. >> there's a possibility we can get core inflation below 3% for a brief period of time, but there's a very low probability we get all the way to 2%. when steve sends out his survey, steve liesman that is, before every meeting, i'm one of those participants that says, i don't see inflation getting to 2% any

time in the forecast horizon. in which case, listen, if they have to go below 3%, that would be fine. they should still be moving the restrictiveness of the policy. but i think the fed will probably be reticent to do that unless the unemployment rate goes up. so it's still a very, you know, narrow path to have everything work out the way the stock market -- >> speaking of steve liesman, barry, stay right there for a moment. i want to bring him in. maybe he can jump into this debate with us. steve is doing his best. it's rick santelli today. how did it go over? >> in so many ways, i am not rick. i don't know how to put this necessarily in context. i can give you the data here, which the high yield was 4.13%, i mean, did you ever wish for

rick to be here to give us a grade on that? indirect, 61.8 p%. i don't put this in the kind of context that rick can, but it seemed like a reasonably good auction. you can see yields are down relative to where they were before the auction results were published. so it seems like it was a decent auction. the problem, kelly, has not been on the short end of the curve. it seems like we've been pretty successful at the short end. the question and the place where the treasury has been treading most carefully is on the long end. those are the ones we are watching and most interesting. and so far so good in terms of the behavior of the longer end of the curve. i don't think barry or i are sitting here like four, five weeks ago, saying we thought the ten-year would be in the $3.88 range, wherever it is right now. that's been an astonishing development. it's an astonishing amount of

stimulus out there. i don't know if we have it in the back, but i want to tell you what goldman is saying just recently. they do see five rate cuts next year beginning in march and i don't know, goldman doesn't strike me as the most reckless fed forecasters on the street. and that's followed by three more. so that's eight quarter point rate cuts added up. that's, i think, if i'm not mistaken, 200 basis points between now and 2025. so that would bring the fed funds rate down to 3.38%. put that in your pipe and smoke it. i don't know if that's right or wrong, but they see the fed starting in march. >> i would say -- it seems like a decent auction. i don't know if we would give it an a minus, b plus, something like that. and barry, quickly, in august, concerns about treasury supply were at the forefront. as soon as they came out with updated refunding numbers, that seems to have gone away. it's just funny, because even

with yields where they are now, if we stayed here, it would be a bit of a problem long run. >> right. absolutely. i mean, the cost of government finance is going to go up quote a bit. $7 trillion to be refinanced next year, and $2 trillion of new supply. we're running $2 trillion deficits. the part with the treasury did by moving more issuance away from the back end of the curve seems leak it's a good solution. the problem is, as steve pointed out, it's the 5s and 7s that are more problematic. that's typically where the banking system plays a big role. and the banking system can't take down treasuries as long as the curve is steeply inverted. so i think the struggles are not over. they've been shuttered aside because of the fed pivot and this tweak that they did to issuance. but by no means do i think the story about struggling to absorb the supply is not going to reinsert itself in 2024.

>> but barry -- >> go ahead, but i was going to say to look back on what didn't happen. greg jensen, his whole point about how treasury finance was going to be a liquidity hole on the economy, it's weird how even though structurally we still have these problems, it hasn't mattered, the flows have been healthy and equities have been quite strong. >> i don't think greg is wrong, right? if treasuries are, indeed, selling as much as barry says they're going to sell, and i have no reason to think barry is wrong, they are taking capital or debt financing away from the private sector and driving up the cost. the thing that is the positive side of this, maybe the silver lining around what is indeed a cloud is, if you thought people -- and barry, by the way, is 100% right about focusing on the five to seven-year, not just for banks, but that's where

business tends to borrow. when you want to figure out what will happen with capital spending, especially when it comes to productivity and the gre growth of the economy, that's where you want to look is in the belly of the curve area. the silver lining is if you thought people were going to have to refinance at 5% when stuff becomes due in 2024, the idea that they're going to refinance at 3.93.90% or wherev the five-year note is, is better than it was going to be. there's still people -- if you were to do a three-year short on that five-year, which is up now, watch how good they are in the back here. what you'll see is that some of this stuff was originally -- look at that. i mean, what is that, zero? there's still 350 additional basis points for your company treasurers to have to deal with it, but it's not 500 extra basis

points. so there's still a cliff and refinancing, there's still going to be a drag on the economy from this. it's just at these levels won't be as bad as we are originally thought. >> we have to go, and i'm going to do a very bad thing by asking wary one more question. i am question, your s&p forecast is still pretty low. what do you think are the catalysts? do you think we just turn the calendar, it's like 2022 all over again where the top tick was the first day of the year? >> my forecast for the end of the year was 35100. i did think it would bounce back. my forecast for this year we were going to retrace the entire selloff of 2022. so not that negative. i just think the first trade out of the gate is likely lower, as we come to grips with not getting all that positive earnings recovery. we need probably a little bit more weakness in the economy to

justify that march cut. that was my forecast, too, or is my forecast that the fed starts in march glike goldman. i just think -- both things can't be true. we can't have this super d-shaped recovery in corporate earnings and still expect the fed to just cut the policy rate all the way back to 4%, open the bank of credit channel, no constraints, and we just go on our merry way. >> fair enough. i think you highlight one or the other narratives has to win for the time being. they both can't be right at the same time. we'll leave it there. thank you very much. i want to get to the biotech space as well today. the xpi etf has shot up nearly 40% in the past two months. it seemed to be a fed pivot play, but we have had a lot of deal announcements, including two more today astrazeneca will

acquire a chinese company, and it's bristol's second deal in just the past week. we turn to jared hopkins for explanation here. jared, good to see you. first of all, it's been a busy period for bristol all of a sudden. >> yeah. they've got a lot -- they had a lot of cash on hand and a lot of firepower. today's deal gives them this cancer drug, call it a radio pharmaceutical. this is sort of a reemerging technology for pharma and other companies are getting into this space. but it's also on the heels of bristol's $14 billion acquisition last week of karuna, which is in the neuro space. so they have been very active. >> you said it was more diversifying away from their

cancer research of recent years, but this sounds like it's doubling down on that. >> yeah. bristol already has a strong presence in cancer. they sell these big selling cancer products. however, those drugs in the coming years, they face loss of patent protection. and this has bristol and other companies in pharma looking for ways to generate new revenue to offset those declines. >> what would you say, jared, you know better than anybody, the biotech possible acquisition targets are always darlings of the investment crowd, hoping they're betting on the right horse. do you have any sense for 2024 where we night see further deal making activity? >> yeah, it's always risky. development is hard, but a lot of people are looking at cancer to continue to be an area where there could be deal making, where there's a lot of promising

signs. immunology has also been very hot in the pastier or so. there's a number of promising drugs in that space. and neuro space,cience, people talking about that, as well. abvie made the big acquisition, which it has a schizophrenia drug in development. i don't think that we should forget about weight loss. ozempic is drawing a huge interest in this space, and not just from eli lilly and novo, but a number of other companies that are developing a second generation weight loss drug, especially in the oral space. >> so maybe the areas that have been active is where we should continue to watch for sure. jared, thanks for joining us today. appreciate your time. >> thanks for having me. coming up, affirm shares

have quintupled since jan 1, but still down 70% from their all-time high. plus, tech stocks wrapping up a historic rally. outperforming the s&p 2-1 this year. a look at what's driving those gains and whether they're due for a fullback. the dow is up 126 points, about a third of 1%. same for the s&p, and the nasdaq over 15,000. and the ten-year note below 3.90. "the exchange" is back after this. when you think of investment risk,

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welcome back to "the exchange." after a rough year in 2022, affirm has soared more than 400% this year, and it's one of the best performers in the market. my next guest has been a long-term bull of the stock and upped his target to 65 after the announcement to expand partnership with walmart. affirm will shift to a full-fledge financial firm. good to have you back, dan. >> thank you. >> before we overly focus on affirm, where would you put this in the pantheon of stocks you cover, near the top, or where does it fall? >> all the way at the top. >> number one? >> i think i was here at the end

of august, and josh was asking me what is your top pick? i said affirm, and this was like $20 ago. so it's still all the way up there. i believe it will go to $65. >> what makes it $20 more valuable today than this summer? >> i think it's still misunderstood. a year ago, people were worried about like the abs securitization and loans and higher interest rates. what people realize now and will in six to twelve months, this is a financial services firm. buy now, pay later is the way to get the name out. it's a full-fledge financial services firm. there will be a card, direct deposit. none of this, in my view, is in the stock. >> after the run that it's had. so is the re-rating predicated on the fact of fed easing and lower rates? are we giving the company too much credit for a macro development in some ways?

>> you mentioned in the beginning, it's still below what it ipo'd in, and i believe it will get there. it's the fed pivoting, which is what has driven, and also these partnerships. you wake up in the morning and you can use it at walmart. you're going to get a lot more of these. it's the most innovative name, period. >> if i buy a share now, and i'm not sure what the multiple is, but where is the earnings power coming from in the next 12 to 18 months? >> 100% the card. it's pure inkremental profits. it comes at a higher profit than the buy now, pay later business. if people put their direct deposit links into the cards, you're going from say $2,000 in year to volume to $8,000. >> so for a customer who will use their debit card and doing direct deposit that way, are these -- do they have bank

accounts? just curious where in the pipeline affirm is sitting. >> the beauty of it, it's everyone. it could be an unbanked person. cash app is mostly unbanked. they're taking share from some of the cash apps of the world. >> you think? >> yes. but i also think it could be anyone. it could be someone living in this neighborhood whose kids use it, teenagers. so it could be everyone. it's not just one cohort. so we see that in the research. it's widely spread across the u.s. >> other than cash app, where do you think they're taking share from? all of these customers are coming from some other part of the finance ecosystem. >> i think they're taking share from banks. if you think about what they offer, they offer a hybrid credit/debit card. and there's just so much out there of basically people who don't like to, you know, carry credit and roll over, and they like more control. this is exactly that sweet spot they offer.

debit if you want it, credit if you want it, pay forward if you want it. and they're taking share from the big banks. >> two last questions. two big concerns out there. one, if it acts like a bank, does it become regulated like one? and the second is, is bullishness on affirm predicated on a decent economy and no hard landing next year? because i have to imagine obviously that we're talking about a very different situation. >> i agree with you on the first one. the first one is that's the key risk is people will start looking at it as a bank. that might be a drag on the multiple. who knows? i think that as long as they stay out of becoming a full-fledged, like direct bank with the regulation of a bank, they're fine. but i can't control the multiple. and on the other thing, a lot of it depends on the macro, but we are seeing the research we have done is student loans are not as big a deal for affirm versus what people thought. so there's a lot more fear in

the stock than it ends up being proven, not all of it, but a lot of it is proven. >> so you're sticking with them for 2024. who else is in the top five? >> top five, sofi. sofi has been another stock that everyone loves to hate. funny you say that, because a year ago, this time a year ago, everyone hated affirm. and now affirm is at $50 and going up. so i am almost seeing the parallels between them and sofi. sofi, we have a $50 price target. once all these fears evaporate, it's going to go up there. >> and so fie is under $10 today. anyone else? >> i like square or block. in that -- all the bad stuff is known, and none of the opportunities are known. so square could work in 2024. >> i feel in general like there is less enthusiasm for thin tech and more guarded caution about

these stocks. maybe that's the right environment. >> story of my life. >> dan, thank you for bringing your family by. coming up, is 2024 finally the year we'll see the media landscape reconsolidate, and the emergence of the streaming bundle? we'll talk about that next here on "the exchange." dow is up 140.

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welcome back to "the exchange." eight straight weeks of dwaynes, a -- gabins, and we're in the green today. dow is up 139. 4772 for the s&p 500 and the nasdaq up half a percent.

ten-year yield, 3.89%, a key level of support, as well. coming up, tech stocks are having their best year since the turn of the century, but can they avoid the same fate now that they had last time? don't go anywhere.

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welcome back. we know tech stocks hop in 2023. nvidia up 237%. microsoft, 56%.

apple 48%. the last week of this year could also give hints about who wins that race next year, because we're going to talk about which apps saw the most action this holiday season. none other than steve kovak is here with those details. >> it's not just the apps but what the app did, but it's interesting to look at app stores on christmas day. it's a snapshot in time of what people are downloading as they get the new iphones and load them up and what accessories they buy that need those companion apps. so the big winner was meta. that points to a lot of people activating new meta headsets, most likely that new quest three that went on sale this fall and will compete with, who else? apple coming maybe as soon as february, this vision pro. we'll have a two-man race here. gaming, though, another theme on

the app store yesterday. xbox was at number seven. playstation held between 11 and 12 yesterday. the reason they went to the top, even though they have been available for three years, it was the first year the consoles were available after so many supply chain problems. it was impossible to find a video game console until the summer or the fall. behind meta it was alexa. that means a lot of echoes under trees. i always looking at this list, kelly, because it gives you an insight into what people are buying, what they're downloading. and one fun tidbit, x yesterday as people activated their new phones was in the 70s. i found that interesting, too. >> i wish we could check the share price and the impact. a lot of the companies, big tech names, any arrivers on the scene? >> sony. besides the playstation, there's

this pair of noise canceling headsets. i'm flaking on the name, but that bubbled up to the top like in the 20s. >> why do you need an app for that? >> it's really interesting, things get skewed so much as people unwrap gifts, activating them with their phones. you see a lot of old apps this there, because people are getting new phones and redownloading everything, so you can see what they prioritized when they start their new phones. >> we'll talk more about this next hour. is there anything to add about the drama with apple and this import ban right now, or this is just -- were they selling watches? >> they were selling them in stores, selling them up to the end of day on class eve. so if you were hoping to get appean apple watch for christmas, you were okay. >> now it's boiling over now. >> that's correct. there is a caveat here. one, the cheaper apple watches are still for sale without that

patented disputed sensor. and third party stores can sell them if they have inventory. >> like i said, we'll dig more into it next hour. but i'm curious how that is affecting trends, as well. my next guest has meta on his list for 2024, but not apple, and he's sticking with nvidia. joining me with where he's finding opportunities is paul meeks, currently a finance professor at the citadel, my middle school friends are laughing because i called it the citadel when i first moved down south. so welcome. >> great to see you. thank force having me. >> what are your thoughts about apple as a stock right now? >> i don't think it's a buyable security present. right now, it's trading for about five or six times what wall street is expecting for its long-term or secular growth rate. and, yes, it's a great company. does it deserve to be a $3

trillion market cap going to $4 trillion? i think going forward is going to be tougher and tougher to achieve those gains. we know the company had a shrink of revenues every quarter for the past four. and so i don't see the upside, particularly after the stock has done so well in recent memory. so among the magnificent seven and the mega cap tech stocks, it's not on my list. >> very interesting. you do like a couple of the other ones, though. alphabet, for instance. amazon, microsoft. and meta, as well. >> yeah. so i like among the magnificent seven, my favorite idea is nvidia. i know it sounds a bit cavalier to say and not particularly creative. but here's a company, again, we talk about the peg ratio, pe to growth like i mentioned for apple. next year, the company should

probably grow its revenue and earnings per share at about 70%. and its pe ratio is not even 30 times. it's actually not that much higher than the s&p 500. that will be lucky to grow its eps next year at 5% to 10%. so nvidia is my best of the best. but because i don't see a recession in this country, and i do think that digital advertising will remain robust, i do like alphabet, and i do like meta, and as my number two, after number one nvidia ai play, i like microsoft. it's come a long way, but it has a little bit more upside in my opinion. >> steve, micron on this list, as well. i did get a question from a viewer about intel, which is about doubled from this year, wondering if that's a name you can bet on for next year. what would you say about intel's prospects? >> i know the company very well.

i think under pat gelsinger, the company is well managed. i do think that they will have a little bit of bounceback in the pc business next year, which still drives intel, because pcs should have a unit ramp next year after having a couple miserable years. right now, that stock is very expensive, based on what i see as its long-term growth, both top and bottom line of probably 5% to 10% best. so i would not buy it now. if i held it, maybe hold it a bit longer, but i think that stock is expensive. >> let me ask you about a trio that might surprise people. what are those doing on your list? >> yeah. so super microis a smaller cap

play, should do very well. they struggled earlier in the year because they had the demand but couldn't get enough the chips from nvidia. now that problem has been solved. i like marcado, it's essentially the amazon in south america. very tightly run company. so yes, i like, as i mentioned, a couple of the magnificent sevens, but yes, i also play in some of these smaller, at least domestically less-known names. and visa and mastercard i like to continue to take a lot of share with a lot of visibility and revenue income and cash flow. >> all right. paul, thank you so much for joining us today. we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> merry christmas. paul meeks with the citadel. coming up, some sectors saul big deals. chevron, exxon, broadcom. should next year bring massive consolidation in the media

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welcome back. next year could be a busy one for deal making in the media space, and one that potentially introduces consumers to the streaming bumdzle. julia has more. >> media giants are talking because they're under pressure from cord cutting, from a weak ad market and from competition for content subscribers, as well as sports rights, with a deep pocketed tech giants. so now the focus is on paramount global, after the ceo from warner brothers, they met in new york last week according to sources. sources tell me that paramount's controlling shareholder held talks. now, this comes after paramount suffered from a 14% decline in linear tv ad revenue last quarter and faces debt payments.

warner brothers discovery could see opportunity in those cbs nfl rights, as well as paramount's film studio. and if david isn't a buyer, he will be free to sell his company as of april 8th, when restrictions from his warner media deal expire. sources tell me that comcast might be interested in pairing its nbc universal with warner brothers discovery to create a more powerful streaming platform. among all of these conversations, a lot of focus is on access to nfl games. they are the most viewed content and also the most valuable assets for advertisers. the nfl could drive deals for media and tech giants, and they're also all of these platforms preparing to bid for the nba's next rights deal. if we don't see some major deals, we should be looking out for moribundling of streaming services, as these companies look for advantages of scale to keep consumers hooked and to

minimize turn. >> maybe it's a bit of an either/or, either consolidation or we see more streaming bundles. you know, i take your point that if they don't all consolidate under one existing product, that maybe they all have to offer some compelling bundle, or maybe the bundle itself is a way of floating a trial balloon. >> i would say that it's both. i think bundling and consolidation. we saw stars complete its spinoff. stars is a company that look a linear network and turned it into a streaming platform. stars could bundle more tv assets, the likes of b.e.t. which is somethingwe did hear at one point paramount was interested in selling off. or the history channel, combining these and streaming them direct to consumer and figuring out how to do that in a profitable way for some of these

smaller assets. so i think there we could see some true consolidation. but when it comes to the bigger companies, the bigger they are, the harder it will be to complete a merger from a regulatory standpoint. so we'll see more bundling even within disney. we'll see disney really playing out the bundle. and then we'll see if we see more bundling of the likes of max and say netflix, which we have seen verizon do for some of its subscribers. >> it's interesting, because this 2023 was in a way supposed to be the year of media deals, and it was crickets. >> well, i think there's a key factor that's driving these talks right now. and that comes down to the fact that share redstop controls pair mount global. until now, she hasn't seen an offer that's made it worthwhile than for her to sell off bits and pieces here. she did have some talking about

selling b.e.t. they decided to retain that. now she has these upcoming debt payments and a question whether now might be time, and whether she feels under pressure to sell off of paramount, and if she can't do that, she could sell national news, which is a lot less expensive, and would allow whether it's apollo or redbird, come in and buy that controlling stake in paramount. so a lot of different options right now, and the decisions she makes could be the catalyst to set up a lot of movement in the m&a space in media. >> she 's one to watch. julia, thank you very much. coming up, luxury home sales jumped 9% and hit the highest third quarter sales price. we'll talk to the ceo of property markets group about what that portend fors for 2024n

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i'm a little anxious, i'm a little excited. i'm gonna be emotional, she's gonna be emotional, but it's gonna be so worth it. i love that i can give back to one of our customers. i hope you enjoy these amazing gifts. oh my goodness. oh, you guys. i know you like wrestling, so we got you some vip tickets. you have made an impact. so have you. for you guys to be out here doing something like this, it restores a lot of faith in humanity. welcome back. the latest case shiller data showing home prices are still on the rise with prices in 20 biggest metro areas jumping

almost 5% from a year ago and that was before a lot of the rate declines hit. this was biggest annual increase already this year as supply remains tight. detroit by the way saw the biggest metro area price gains. but it is a different story in the luxury segment where inventory actually rose in the third quarter according to red fin. sales in big cities with cash rich buyers snapping up properties. my next guest is kevin maloney, ceo of property markets group. they are a luxury real estate developer in new york, miami and other big metro areas. kevin, welcome. >> thank you for having me. >> you see some softening in the luxury space? >> we sure do. a lot of inventory, certainly in the south florida market, and we're seeing a little bit of softening. our deposit structure has changed a bit. and interest rates are certainly not helpful. so weare seeing softening in the marketplace.

unlike the single family home market, where inventory is an all-time low and people really can't be selling with the low mortgages and people can't afford to be buying where you will see strong demand in the luxury highrise condominium space. >> i was going to ask if these are mostly condos. >> yes, highrise luxury condo space. >> and is it both too much supply and less demand or is it simply too much supply? >> no, i think that demand is still pretty consistent in the marketplace. i think that the supply has grown substantially. frankly, many of these condominiums that were launched in '22 that sold through the second half of '22 and '23 are still in the marketplace selling throughstanding inventory or new condos have actually entered the marketplace. so mostly on the supply side of the curve. >> and what price points are we talking? >> well, the price point --

different projects, different price points. but in our segment, we're kind of that $5 million and up and a lot of our product is $20 million and up. >> wow. so so much of the supply that came on line in 2022, what was driving that, what was fueling that? >> in '22, if you look at it was 18 bips. and so it is now 530. so cheap money or free money in a marketplace. sales were consistently strong and developers were really able to get that debt financing to get out of the ground. that constitutes the really remanning of the standing inventory. and with low interest rates and hot economy, you have a whole bunch of new product entering the marketplace. i think that that product is going to be probably sitting for a period of time before it gets in to the ground. mostly because credit markets are a little tougher today.

>> so what do you think is going to happen with all of this inventory? >> well, i think that the good news is a lot of it won't get built. in '23, only about 10% of the buildings that were planned actually got shovel in the ground and are being built. and that is as a result of the interest rates and rising costs. because of what the fed did, we're in pretty much a flat cost sbir environment. and we're talking maybe 75 basis points over a few meetings in '24. i think that that will certainly help the sales side and i don't know if it will have a material effect. so i don't know that supply will really increase in '24. so if demand is consistent, we'll eat up a lot of that inventory and then probably see in late '24, early '25 prices increase yet again. >> that is fascinating. thanks for outlining some of that for us. people are wondering what is going on and it always seems to come back to the central bank.

appreciate you joining us. >> you're welcome. goi get a get a deal. next, the c-suite sweet spot. dom is in for tyler and i'll join him on the other side of the break. the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪

welcome to "power lunch." i'm dominic chu. on the show, if you didn't get the new apple watch for christmas, you may not be able to get one for quite some time. a ban on all importing of that apple watch taking effect today with no relief from the white house in sight. >> plus the best ceos of 2023 and who is on the hot seat heading in to next year. we'll ask a leadership expert. and before that, let's get a check on the markets as we try to