(adventurous music) ♪ ♪ ♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome to power lunch, everybody. alongside kelly evans, i'm

tyler mathisen. coming up, a.i. has been one of the big stories of 2023, maybe even the biggest. it is not going away next year. far from it. for questions on how to use, it regulated, how to make money off of it, our panel will answer those questions and offer some investment advice. >> and risky business, the ceo will join us. plus, the into impact of tariffs, and what he sees on the trends on the alcohol industry. people choosing marijuana over booze? let's check out the markets. stocks are once again melting higher. the dow, 37,700 for the first time. another new record. the s&p 500, short of their, highs only about ten points. the nasdaq, 100 waited to the bigger names. those record levels themselves, up more than 50% this year. >> the question is not just when will this rally end, but how and, how badly. to bring in more, mike santoli. i'm not sure i like the phrasing of that question.

it presumes the rallying must end. eventually all rallies do. it suggests it will end soon. that is by no means assured. >> i'm with, you tyler. you don't necessarily -- you don't have to treat record highs, assuming we get there within a few points relatively soon in the s&p 500 as indication to say when this is going to be over. obviously, difficult to project either way. either way around, it's amazingly symmetrical. almost exactly two years ago, write down 25%, in ten months, up 33% in the s&p 500. over 14 months. it is remarkable that two months ago, it was plausible to say that i am not sure this is really a bull market. i'm not really sure that we have a significant run in october of 2022, just because it was such a narrow market and was not operating the way that it should. bank shots were down from that point, never happened before. it has been a little bit of a rescue of this idea that it is a home market of some

description. even if it ended very soon, you would call it a brief bull market. the stuff they would knock it off course, which is excessively bullish sentiment and positioning, it is not good timing tools. evaluations are not certainly all attractive, but also not below two years ago when we fell off of those levels. of course, those macro backdrops for now seem friendly. the burden of proof for the moment seems to be on those that say the economy is going to turn hostile very soon. >> all, right mike. stay with us as we bring in a new guest for more on this year end rally, and how to position for 2024. let's welcome jeremy bryant, portfolio management. jeremy, welcome number one, i would like to get your reaction of what michael just said there. you say that it would be difficult to say the s&p can continue at the magnitude that we are experiencing right now. at the same time, you point out that right now, with regard to market performance one year after a big year, higher than 20% gain in the s&p 500. stocks are still up in the

following year, 65% of the time, and the average return in those years including the down years is about 9%. that suggests that 2024, while we may have a correction, might not be a bad year at all. >> yes. that is absolutely right, you nailed it. that is our opinion. just because you have a good year, does not mean the next year is bad. we have been on a little bit of a seesaw, as mike said before. we had a massive down year, and then a really good year. it does not mean that we have to continue on that trajectory. in fact, i think and hope that we can normalize to a certain extent. a 9% mark it is a normal market. do we get that very often? usually not. we end up getting highs and lows, usually get -- do not get nine or 10% with all that often. those numbers that you've, you better than 54% of the time were positive again the next year, even after a big year. from our perspective, we are saying to have a safety net and

be cautious and understand that certain things are very expensive, certain things are still a relative bargain. there are still opportunities out there, and does not mean doom and gloom for 2024. >> mike, what would you add? hearing about this idea, i thought that brent put it well earlier, this question about are we going to make a double talk? or should we expect with this kind of momentum we are experiencing, stop skip typically keep going? >> usually strong -- strong returns for a while, we get further strong returns. all of that being said, i'm not sure the market on a longer term basis really owes a investors a tremendous amount. the three year trailing s&p is about 10%. is not like you're digging out of a deep hole if you've been a buy and hold investor. five years, you're up 16% annual. in other words, it's not as if this market has been down in the dumps, and is something that needs a recovery effort. i do think that we have to keep in mind, every, year calendar years, upset many percent of the time.

usually, you have some kind off. i'm not sure if you want to pencil in the most bullish gains. i think the biggest questions me still in the late cycle? how long is it late? have we somehow gotten the fountain of youth based on the fed pivot, and we are back in mid-cycle? that is going to define how we absorb whatever comes at us in the way of the growth and inflation numbers. >> jeremy, i wonder -- to pick up on what mike said about interest rates and so forth. it is an awful lot of expectation about lower interest rates, seemingly baked into where we are right now. 150 to 175 basis point cuts, maybe six interest rate cuts. that means every meeting they are going to cut basically if they do a quarter point at a time. that feels a little fantasyland to me. >> yes, i think the people need to calm down on it a little bit. they were going the other way for months ago. in the effect of having to assume rate increases. now they are assuming that kind

of rate increases, i don't see it. what i've been saying is -- >> what if the fed doesn't cooperate? what would the market reaction be if the fed does not cooperate as you seem to suggest it may not? >> yes, i mean, i think that normalization can absolutely happen. you could get a short term correction as a result of that, absolutely. from our perspective, that is the buying opportunity. as we are looking at that and saying that the fed is not cutting, they are not cutting because economic trends are still okay, we still have a good amount of jobs. maybe they are not cutting as aggressively as we have anticipated. as corporate earnings still come in, and market sentiment is generally driving us with productivity, i do not think that that is in and of itself the catalyst for a fake climate going forward, saying that the fed is not cutting as aggressively. in fact, in our opinion, the fed is -- that's probably bad, because probably your economic trends are going a little bit. >> michael, let's talk about

the broadening of the market, how you see that and interpret that since the mid fall. and other small cap measures have gone very nicely. the equal waited s&p has been outperforming. that is a pretty good sign, isn't it? >> yes, absolutely. probably the chief complaint of observers of the market going into that period is that the average stock had really set out for this rally. >> europe about 6% for the s&p year to date. that is almost all since september 1st. clearly a major catch it. the big question for me, i'm not sure that we can continue to think about this market as either or. it is either a magnificent 7 market, or and everything else mark it. as we have seen, since the bottom in the fall, the large growth stops have also participated. they are not in active use for either. i think there's a way to

basically have nobody be right if you're picking one of the other. >> jeremy, a couple of your stock choices based on the forecast include companies in medical care and health insurance. i believe sigma is one of, them united health care and other. why do you think those are likely to outperform next year? >> the real thing, to mike's point, we have not really seen their level of participation. these are companies that are still growing, 8 to 12, even higher than that range. that is what we are really looking at now, as we do get a broadening out, as mike said before, the companies that we want to be involved in that are going to be participating to a greater extent in that broadening out. we think that companies who have not participated quite as well up to this point and still have a solid earnings growth characteristic, that's where you want to be. health, because of the gdp owens that have really worked this year in health care, those

are the really the areas where the other stocks have been kind of left alone and not participated. meanwhile, the growth profile is still looking pretty good going forward. >> all, right thank you both. we appreciate your time. jeremy bryant and michael santoli. bond yields have been tumbling, taking a pause today. the ten year yield about 3.8% down. in chicago with more. i have not asked you about the dollar, rick, but it's been quite weak. >> yes, it has been quite weak. it is down on the year. that should not be a surprise to anybody, as of course interest rates and the robust tightening cycle of the fed certainly did put a tailwind on the dollar that has now disappointed. the seven year note option, let's look at your seven. it jumps out at you, 1:00 eastern. everything changed and the entire curve reversed because the auction did not go well. it is the last of the options, and many times you get a bit of an outsized response. let's not forget, interest rates have been awfully well behaved. if you look at the same seven

year, the aforementioned, yesterday's close was the lowest yield close going back to the first part of june. we will call it six and a half months. finally, if you look at what is going on with tens, i find this very interesting. we have had a wild year. look at the ranges. at the top, we basically touched 5%. on the bottom, we hit 3:30 and we settled last year, the last trading day, 3.8 8%. we are darn close to unchanged on the year. if you look at the yield growth, twos to tens, as many of us do, it closed at minus 55 for 2022. it is right now hovering at minus 43, less inverted. that's because the leadership role of interest rates moving down has been taken up by the two year and closely aligned with the fed. that means that for 2024, you should be very observant of a potential steepening yield curve, because long rates may

definitely side on the depth side of the equation, meaning that that would keep them much more lofty than many are anticipating, because they assume the fed is down, and all interest rates will do what the fed is doing, going down. that's not necessarily the case. kelly, tyler, back to you. >> happy new year, rick. we will see you next year. coming, up apple has always been a tech giant, but this, year that lapped in the a.i. race, as the hype and money was on direct a.i. plays like nvidia and others. up, next with the company can do to fix it. plus, which chip names in the a.i. chip race? followed that and more when power lunch dives a little bit deeper into a i. ♪ ♪ ♪

all right, tandy, what's it gonna be, the drink made from whatever was laying around, or the one made with your drizzly haul? drizly! welcome back to power lunch. stock up today, sip well, tomorrow. drizly.

one of the big stories for the market this year, of course, it was the rise of the magnificent seven. the seven big tech names driving the markets for better or for worse. cnbc's tracking those names, up 100% this year. those gains led by nvidia and meta, both of which have tripled. microsoft and apple are the laggers in this group, although 50% still being good. that news, what about 2024? our delivering outlet investors,

strategists, and early contributors for the mega seven names leading the way in the 2024. microsoft got nearly half the votes, and apple was tied for last. for a look at why the markets have soured on apple, let's bring in steve kovach from the nasdaq. steve, what can they do to fix it? >> and like you said, 48% is nothing to shake a stick at their. and of those names, you can look at them. the biggest question for apple in 2024, can it return their growth? that's because we just got over four straight quarters of finding -- and on top of, that the current december quarter, apple is said to expect sales to be flat. despite that, shares are up about 30% on the year, and going into 2024, we have some good news which can help apple, and some bad news that can make it harder to return to growth. let's start with the bad news first. headwinds of china, that's really the big one here. huawei, returning online, starting to sell phones, again showing indications that people are switching back from my

phone to the huawei android phones. plus, the online gaming crackdown by the government, that can impact the app store. also, overall what they can see throughout the, year slower economic recovery among the chinese consumers. now let's look over to the u.s.. the apple watch ban, still being worked out despite being yesterday. and going in through the sale today. just one more here, the european union digital market which is going to go into full force next year, which will force a lot of changes in apples app store, hurting its massive profit margins there. speaking of services, that growth has been re-accelerating again. it's a high market business, up 16% in the september quarter. that is really good news for apple and getting back for the growth. on the hardware side, singles to pc and phone demand might have bottomed out after all of that pandemic buying. that might put a damper on things over the last couple years. look, here's what's not going to move the needle, the new vision pro headset we have been talking about for so long.

it's going to be a small launch coming out in the u.s., probably as soon as february at first. it is not going to be a mass market device, estimates at about 5000 units for 2024. still, a vision of the future, maybe something to pay attention to, guys. >> and i wonder if they will do anything else, steve, to maybe a i watch, if i can put it that way. maybe highlighting those aspects of their ecosystem that would most benefit from the continued option of the technology. >> that is another big question, and i'm glad you asked that. tyler brought that up in a tease before the commercial. the big question is, what is apple going to do with this generative a.i. boom? we've been seeing some hints of it, some reports in the new york times last week saying they are trying to train their large language models, similar to what chatgpt has on media organizations, and in fact paying to license that content. we already know about that whole world that is going through with microsoft and openai in the new york times. but look, who knows?

does that mean that some sort of supercharged series that they can charge for? doesn't mean creating new tools for developers to make it easier for iphone developers to kind of tap into the a.i. large language model that apple made? we really don't know. expect, kelly, if they are going to do something, june is the annual developers conference. that will be a good time for the announcers to really pay attention to that one. >> i don't like to criticize apple, because i usually end up eating my words on it. i have to say, if they intend to charge for siri, they have to get serious about siri. it is not competitive right now. >> it is nowhere close to the capabilities of chatgpt, what they can do, but here's the thing about siri. apple is very cognizant about getting the answers right. they are so protective of their image. early on in the early days of siri, you would get things wrong and they would have to run in and correct it manually. they want to get it right, that is my suspicion. that's what i suspect at least, and why we haven't seen that

kind of product. we do hear from tim cook over and over again, they are playing around with this technology. they have that idea for 2024. >> better be right than fast. >> hey siri, did you hear what tyler just said about you? i don't think that she's going to be very happy. >> did she respond? >> no, because she can't. >> she can't process the large language model. all right, steve. see you, man, thank you. further ahead, will you get your whiskey neat or messy? net space facing troubles with the potential tariffs on american exported whiskey. it's being delayed. higher prices, shrinking alcohol consumption, what can those businesses expect in the new year? plus, late taking a hit during the ev craze. lithium was the hot trade. this year, it took a freefall. prices down around 80%. what does this say about the future of ev? we will break down that one, next.

♪ ♪ ♪ lithium was supposed to be the centerpiece of the ev future. as demand for evs as cooled a

bit, so has the price for lithium stocks. the lip etf, you have to love that one, it's down 10% this year. as stevens, now a look at lithium in 2024. >> ev had a wild ride this year, and so did lithium. at the beginning of the, year stock prices topped $70,000 according to benchmark. today, they're trading under $16,000. that is a decline of nearly 80%. prices started rising at the beginning of 2021 as forecaster said that there would be shortages, which pushed prices up nearly 8% in the span of just three years. now they're is too much inventory slowing the demand, and lizzy -- company stockpiled lithium, but they are still working through just as the demand slows. plus, the supply came online faster than expected, in part because sky-high prices made projects that would otherwise be not acquit -- economically viable. as the bank put it, it's a

perfect storm of headwinds. there could be more declines ahead given that we are entering a seasonally week period before china's new lunar new year in february. key players like alum are, lie them, and sq, am catching a good month, but still in the red for 2023. we have seen this with commodity cycles before. everyone gets, and gets dropped, there's no investment, yada yada yada. i >> what's interesting, there are companies that invested in the big projects, assuming that the price was going to be staying high. they are now in a bad place, right? >> they've always been very careful, with those lithium projections, is because there is so much volatility. nobody in the industry thought that 1800 percent increase was good. over three years, it's just too much. nothing kills high prices like high prices. it's not good either, but they were certainly banking on continued upside. they changed their contract structures from long term contracts to the contracts that matched a global weighted average of lithium. they made that move at the top,

just as those prices started to decline. i do think that analysts say that we will see a bottom at some point, because there is no question that lithium is vital for the energy transition. certainly not above $80,000 per ton. that is way too high, and everyone universally says that that is not good for ev development going forward. >> that is the mathisen law of real estate purchases. [laughter] i'm always right there within a couple of months of the peak. good to see you. >> let's get to kristina partsinevelos for cnbc news update. >> thank you. the u.s. issued sanctions today issuing funding for the group blamed for the recent shipping vessel tax in the red sea. united states officials say the sanction is focused on a group of money exchange services from yemen and turkey that have allegedly transferred millions of dollars for the iranian -backed houthi rebels. those rebels have been attacking ships in the red sea in recent weeks. israeli sources tell msnbc news that secretary of state antony blinken is expected to return to israel in the new year. it will be his fifth visit to

the country since the war with hamas started in october. the visit is expected to come at the beginning of january, although the state department has not confirmed the travel plans. pierce broaden it is in hot water for walking into a restricted area of yellowstone national park. the actor is accused of traveling off trail in the park to thermal areas. he's been ordered to the yellowstone justice center at the end of january. kelly, that means that even celebrities need to follow rules. >> i have been to some. we did an end-of-year trip to yellowstone in the minus 40 a couple of years ago. i was not wondering, anywhere i was wondering back to the hotel. >> were you on the snowmobile tour? >> yes, yes. i highly recommend. >> yellowstone is one of the most eerie, beautiful places that i have ever been. >> and while you're, there you're, like could the volcano blow while i'm there? >> old faithful? [laughter] i think that pierce brosnan ought to get off on loan.

>> he probably will, to be honest. and ahead on power lunch, we are looking back to the future. the biggest story of 2023 was artificial intelligence. it is likely to be just as big in the new year. what transformation should we expect? we will discuss that, next. don't go anywhere. ♪ ♪ ♪ a force to be reckon with. no, not you saquon. hm? you! your business bank account with quickbooks money, now earns 5% apy. 5% apy? that's new! yup, that's how you business differently.

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welcome back to power lunch. among the many narratives of 2023, the most defining has to be the rise of artificial intelligence. the arms race in tech with companies rushing to release a i related products and services to cash in on the frenzy. it also came with worries about misuse, including cyberattacks, and a copyright case becoming the new battlefront. but the new york times, suing open a.i. yesterday, alleging that it is illegally using its copyrighted material. the times, that, is to train the large language models. msnbc legal analyst danny's of all us, telling us yesterday that he says the case could have massive consequences. >> the new york times, if they are successful, that means that arguably a i would have to go out, the companies would have

to go and find owners of copyright, maybe a log cabin in alaska, and pay them. that would be the end of a, i that would be the end of the future of artificial intelligence. if that were the case. in a sense, it could be that the times would have to lose for progress. >> and so what is really at stake here, what can we expect in 2024? let's bring in a panel of experts to discuss. joining us now, daniel newman, ceo and principal of the venture in group. and nobel, the founder of way. she made, i hope that i pronounce your name correctly. i want to start with you and pick up where danny cevallos was. how important is this new york times case against the purveyors of chatgpt? what do you expect to happen? are these publishing companies likely to reach some sort of a settlement with the a.i. aggregator, is i suppose i

could phrase? >> yes, i could say that the new york times piece is the most significant lawsuit to date. there are two reasons there. the first one is the star power of the new york times. it is the biggest u.s. media company to really go after these a.i. companies. the new york times is also claiming something new, the chatgpt is a direct competitor to their subscription model. this throws some of the arguments out of a lot of a.i. companies that are making, such as fare use. it really throws this out of the window. because chatgpt is seen to be a substitute for subscribing to the new york times, and a trust of information. the new york times really does have something there. >> sinead, are these lawsuits an existential threat, as cevallos said to artificial intelligence? >> it depends on which way they go. the current lawsuits currently opened, such as the individual

artists, some of that has already been dismissed. if the new york times winds, and the judge does in fact follow one of their requests, which is for any a.i. model which has been trained on any of their data to be dismantled and re-trained without their information, that changes the future of a.i.. what i do think is more likely to happen is that open a.i., microsoft, and the new york times, reaching some form of a settlement. there is a licensed deal the same way that openai has reached licensing deals with other companies, in fact new york times and the new york times tried to reach a licensing deal last spring. that is what i think is likely to happen. if they win, and the judge or court actually decides that we do want to honor all of their requests, and want them to re-train these models. this is a copyright disaster, let's fill these differently. that is, in some ways, an existential challenge for a.i. companies. >> daniel, in the meantime, we have a lot of corporate adoption trends to consider. you have a survey, if you don't mind, give us a little glimpse of what your findings are.

what should we expect in terms of demand and the kinds of companies that will be spending in these benefits from their a.i. adoption next year. >> we did first look at the a.i. decision-making data of the enterprise, talking o2 over 1000 companies. and talking to the implementers, as long -- as was the technologies they wanted to use. a couple more interesting trends. this, year it was a really big year for nvidia. maybe for microsoft, depending on early adopters. good is a really coiled spring. jet robins, talking about all of the purchasing happening, now the implementation is going to follow. we talked about that in the earnings report. we are seeing the same things here. we're seeing about a 3% rise of companies that plan to spend more than $2 million next year on the a.i. implementations. we are seeing some very big growth. we are also seeing significant outlooks as to where that spending is going to be. the combination of the big integrators, essentially

leading the way, but also the companies that they plan to work with, which unsurprisingly, leading with microsoft and google as well as a.w.s.. also ibm, which had made big investments and big bets, coming up on top of the list. it is a really interesting early finding. the spending is really beginning. it is not as far as long as some people might feel. >> so if it is just the beginning, daniel, i guess one of the questions for the investment landscape, and you kind of hinted at this, but what are the other ways that i could play this with nvidia? even ibm, if i'm not mistaken, it's up 50 or 100% this year. people are starting to kind of put together a little bit of what the world might look like next year as more companies try to get help with this adoption. >> yes, i think that nvidia got that first wave of growth. and it deservedly so, based on having the right product at the right time. now you look at the fast followers. i agree in the two areas. i agree with those that are

going to benefit, you saw a m d with some momentum with the recent launch. i like both intel, vulcan, and amd. this is going to be a super cycle. it's probably going to fall into the later half of next year, but all of these companies stand to benefit. the other part is of course infrastructure, the net worth to move all of this data. broadcom has had a remarkable year for that reason. that is another company that these guys are keeping an eye on. really quickly, the sas players, who makes it really easy to implement and deploy a i? you mention microsoft, but service now is going to be an enabler of service force, they have built a very well understood monetized product within the crm. those are companies that basically rated in. it is the maxes and softener. >> sinead, i need a quick answer here, there are multiple countries with elections this, year one of them is the united states. there's also india, taiwan, russia, and many more. how concerned are you about

deepfakes and the potential for mischief from ill intentioned actors interfering without election and creating the messaging that you don't know whether is true or false? >> i would say that i am very concerned, and we don't have any broad defenses against detecting a.i. generated content. it is not just deepfakes. it is co-opted imagery, it is newsletters, it is text messages which may have been engineered. it is also the mere threat of something being a i generated, which can sow distrust and confusion, with misinformation that is in fact true. there are scenarios where true information is doubted because we have becomes confused in a sea of information. of course, it raises the threat of bad actors, state sponsored cyberattacks, more social engineering, four billion people are going to be impacted by elections this year. it is a big one to watch, with a.i. generated content it is the first year of all of these

fancy tools that are in the hands of millions if not billions of people. it is one to watch. >> it is really a wag the dog type of situation here. it is really quite alarming. thank you both very much, daniel neumann, sinead bo bell, thank you. >> up next, new stocks creating a new cocktail. i'm -- surprised by the, latter given controversy with that spark. they are down significantly, overall alcohol consumption dropping. how our brains keeping up with consumer tastes? we will speak to the ceo of bourbon maker michter's, coming up next.

all right. 60 seconds to draw the perfect gift. what's it gonna be? a bottle of don julio, 1942, delivered. welcome back. delivered with drizly. gifting without the guessing. drizly. the u.s. and eu, striking a deal to avoid 50% tariffs being imposed on whiskey escorts to europe. that is great news for the next guest, whose whiskey bottles have gone from 67 to 88 euros

across the pond. here to discuss taxation, inflation, and libation's, -- chatham imports. it is great to have you, back welcome. >> thank you so much for having, me i love the show. >> it's my understanding that we have had tariffs, they have been removed, they might have gone back. how does that price volatility affect demand in your european markets over the years? >> it has been quite a saga. hey the story is still not totally clear and over yet. in 2018, the tariffs on whiskey went to 25% on exports to the eu. that is retaliation on tariffs to aluminum and steel. it affected volume a lot. 2018 to 2021, the volume dropped on whiskey exports to the eu by 20%. the tariffs were suspended for

two years as of the beginning of 2022. in 2022, the business really bounced back strongly. in 2022, american whiskey exports to the eu are up 29%. that is the good news. the bad news is that it was just a postponement of the eu tariffs, and the suspension of it. the tariffs were supposed to get reimposed next week on january 1st to 2024. not just imposed, doubled. 50%. that would've been just a tremendous increase but once. fortunately, on december 19th, but the american government agreed to stuff that would suspend the tariffs. the suspension is only until march 31st, 2025. the saga continues, and cellars like us will continue to bite our nails. >> how much has the uptake of cannabis affected demand for your products, for alcohol in general?

if you wouldn't mind, tell us how the uptake of cannabis plays across different age groups? is it higher among younger people? is the alcohol consumption for younger people lower. is it lower among my generation? we are still drinking the way that we used to? you know what i'm saying? >> i know a fair amount about whiskey, a fair amount of the spirits, and winds. by no shape or form am i an expert on cannabis, and certainly don't want to portray myself as one. that being said, i think on a high end item, i think that cannabis has had very little effect. i really haven't seen cannabis having an enormous effect in general on the industry anecdotally. and i wfor report came out very

recently, saying that gen z, the legal drinking age, about a third of them are not drinking alcohol now. is part of that cannabis or not? i don't know. the good news for the industry, two thirds -- do you drink alcohol. again, i think it remains to be seen. i don't know that it has really been quantified how much cannabis is directly affecting the industry at this point. >> let me switch and ask you a little bit about inflation pressures, where they have been coming from. whether they are debating. let me get you to address this question. it is, i understand if corn prices or ride prices, barley prices go up in 2021 or 2022. a lot of what you are selling today at bars and liquor stores was put into the barrels ten years ago when prices were very different. how do you price today for inflation influences that you

are feeling today, when so much of your product was made ten years ago, nine years ago, when prices were different? >> it's a great question. obviously corn, which is up 22% from pre-pen democrat levels, b rye is up 32% from pre-pandemic levels -- sorry, rye is at 50% from pre-pandemic levels. you are, right we have so much whiskey selling now that was done very previously. the thing you have to realize, is that we are weighing out money now to buy the stuff. for example, i am aware of barrel price increases. barrels are more expensive than what goes into the barrel. they're up 30% effective on january 1st, 2024. we are getting a lot more money now. if you compare -- it was 0.05% in december of

2021. it's now 5.3 4%, so a 10,000% increase. it's costing us a lot more to lay out the money now. remember, something like michter's, the u.s. wine line, the entry level wind, typically we are averaging around six years holding the stuff before we bottle it and get our money out of it. it is a lot of money being laid out by the industry right now. >> that is a very interesting answer there. in other words, you're having to invest now for the product that you are selling in nine years. and so today's prices have to reflect that investment into tomorrow's product. >> yes. it is not just -- you know, it is not just what we are laying down and increasing inventory right now. it is also when -- you know, rightfully so, we are paying our people more.

labor costs more, energy costs more. there are a lot of different factors that go into it. and really, inflation has also affected the entire industry somewhat. one thing that would be fine, which is anecdotally interesting, now interest rates -- look, interest rates are starting to come down, but a 30-year mortgage is still 6.6 as of today. the people are experimenting less. they are buying more tried and true brands that they know, rather than buying some expensive discovery product. we do see inflation taking place. interest rates as well have led to a lot of d stocking in our industry. they've been cutting our industries in 2023 substantially. that is one of the reasons why people in 2024, now they can sort of moderated. >> we have to leave it there,

joe. i would suggest anybody that has a 7% mortgage, the best thing to do is to open a bottle of michter's and have a little. that will make you feel better about that mortgage. >> great idea. >> joe, thank you very much. happy new year, my friend. michter's whiskey and distillery. speaking of boos, why not? speaking of boos, why not? coming, up (adventurous music) ♪ ♪ ♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia.

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hello folks. time for the three stock launch. we look at the next guests's top picks for 2024 with the trades. and investment recommendations, michael carr, president and ceo of pharma in washington. first up on your list, goldman sachs shares your hire by 12% year-to-date. a lot of people would turn their nose up at that but not a bad return it will. your take on goldman for next year. >> not a bad return at all. i have done the top 10 list for 16 years. goldman at one point, two times

booked with a 3% stock dividend at 2.9% dividend and growing at 8% a year. you know, i joke about goldman sachs. sometimes customers or investment banking clients may or may not make money. goldman sachs always makes money. over a lot of years, you don't bet against goldman sachs. i think you see investment banking come back in the year ahead as the economy maybe slows but starts to recover. >> by the way, everyone says thank you for the lemon cake. huge hit. let's talk about pepsico. the stock is down 6% this year. what are your thoughts? i did not see that one being sent out for christmas. >> no and i wish that pepsico made the women cakes. because god knows i buy a lot of those things. pepsico is not cheap at 20 times earnings and 3% dividend. solid balance sheet. the new ceo has been improving

with this faster, stronger better pepsi coke snack food business. a lot of efficiencies. they fill gaps in the lines. this is not an exciting company and will be the best performer on the top 10 list but i think it will be a solid performer and you should have a core anchor in every portfolio. i have this one with johnson & johnson. the list comes on cnbc.com after we get off here. so nothing gets released until after your show. >> we will give then the appetizer portion and then go get the whole feast when we finish. finally, valmont industries, the share is down almost 30% year to date. what about valmont, a winter turned loser or loser turned winter next year? >> tyler, it was a great winner the past few years. it did have a bad year. if you are catching a theme of solid balance sheets and good strong cash flow, conservative companies with a bit of a dividend, you are right. also, i'm not changing or

chasing the things that have gone through the roof. i'm trying to hit them where they are not. i like to buy low. some are not cheap but fundamentals are strong. valmont makes industrial poles, utility poles and infrastructure products. they do stuff for agriculture and irrigation and highway safety. this is a core company that will benefit from the ongoing deployment of 5g. also, agriculture and infrastructure spending. 15 times earnings. 9% earnings growth. so superior to the s&p and a discount to the s&p. i like valmont. i have owned it for a while and i like management. so here are some healthcare companies to balance out the portfolio. they will be on cnbc.com. happy new year to you guys! thank you for having me. >> happy new year to you. always great to see you. best to your family. >> for all 10 of michael's picks for 2024, you can, as he

suggested, go to cnbc.com and those will be up in about four minutes time. still ahead, a huge change is coming too 29 plans. that is in closing time next! power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley

there is a lot of information out there.

hamas slaughtered more than 1200 innocent people, holds innocent hostages, and raped countless innocent women. and now hamas is trying to hide sexual violence against women. they don't want those women to be able to talk about what happened to them stand with palestinians and israelis for basic human rights. stand for all women. a force to be reckon with. no, not you saquon. hm? you! your business bank account with quickbooks money, now earns 5% apy. 5% apy? that's new! yup, that's how you business differently. we will wrap it up. a huge change coming for college 529 savings plans.

until now, funds had to be used for qualified education expenses. starting january 1st, the savings can be put toward retirement if not needed for school. that is a big game changer. i have a son going to college next year so i will be using my 529 for the historic purpose of college expenses. >> probably worth it in the long run. i would be glad to tell people about this. i always knew there was a way to do this but this makes it more accessible. >> thank you for watching. i am off tomorrow. happy new year everyone! thank you for joining us. >> closing bell starts right now. >> welcome to closing bell. i am in for scott wapner. this make or break hour, we get to the stocks drifting before a soft landing and a new record high to the key market benchmark. the s&p 500 a fraction of a percentage away from completing a two year-round trip to the january 2022 peak. that is at about 47.97. that would be a new record high. since that point in january of 2022, the