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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  December 29, 2023 5:00am-6:00am EST

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it's a classic american story in some ways. glad that you guys could come by and take a look around. so thanks again, and we'll see you later. -- captions by vitac -- it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters and here is your "five@5." we start with the final trading day of 2023. what history says the s&p may do for the markets. and we dig into the stock playbook and what military conflicts in the middle east and ukraine could mean for the defense sector. we give you the stocks to watch. we are crowning the winner of our fourth quarter go big or go home series. why your champion is not giving up on his fintech pick.
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and settlement. dp google agreeing to pay. and a major milestone for a chat gpt rival as it looks to gain ground in the red hot space. it's friday, december 29th, 2023. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. ♪ good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. this is the last "worldwide exc exchange" of 2023. let's start your day with the kickoff of the check of the u.s. stock futures. the dow would open up 35 points higher. right now, the markets are set to close out a very strong year. not factoring in the moves today. look at the charts. the dow is up more than 13.5%. the s&p is up 24.5%. keep in mind, we're on record
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close and record intraday high watch all day on cnbc. nasdaq is the best performance. the bond market yields with the ten-year yield at 3.888. i have been saying it is down 30 basis points since the pause in december from the fed. we also look at wti trading at $72.20 a barrel. similar for brent crude up .75% trading at $77.75 a barrel. both on pace for the first negative year in the last three. the moves for oil with crude, wti, down 10% for the year. brent crude down 9.5% for the year. we will look at the overseas action in asia. it is a mixed picture year to date.
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japan's nikkei, the biggest winner for the year, up 28%. the hang seng, laggard down 14%. we also get a check of europe. look at europe right now. give us a second the european markets are in the green across the board. up around .25% across the board. dax under .25%. ftse mib is under a .25%. back in the u.s., the s&p is up 16% in the last two months. as ryan detrick points out this is a signal there is more room to watch. let's bring in janet moi at rbc brewin dolphin. >> good morning, frank. thanks for having me. >> we are seeing the santa claus rally. stocks doing well. we are on record intraday high
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and watch for the s&p. do you agree with ryan that we're a set up for more room to run for stocks in 2024? >> yes, we are positive on equities. we have added more equities a month ago. we cannot dismiss the issue that the economy can go under, but the economy is actually headed in the right direction. this is a key theme which will lead to rate cuts. we think that could be more room for equity to rally in the next year. having said that, we also think that in a very near term, sentiment is bullish. we can't rule out the possibility of a pullback. >> you mention rate cuts. differing views on the rate cuts
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next year. chief economist of apollo believes the fed will keep rates higher for longer. goldman believes we'll get 25 basis point cuts throughout the year. how is your forecast on fed cuts? >> i think it's hard to say it is not dependent on rate cuts. we are on the view of the disinflationary story. nobody knows how the data will play until we get them. the u.s. is very relevant and you look at the index and it tells you the housing component is a huge part of the cpi index. it will further slow down next year. we are confident inflation is heading in the right direction.
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you can debate whether the market has already fully priced that in. aside from rate cuts, there are other positive drivers for the equity market. for example, if we achieve a soft landing, that's pretty good. whether we get as many rate cuts, it doesn't matter if the economy continues to move well. of course, the a.i. theme which is developing. >> one more thing i want to ask, janet, what is your outlook with bonds? we have seen the yields decline, but what is the outlook for the bonds? are you focused on the short end or the long end of curve? >> we were more focused on the short end of the curve because we were pretty sure of the higher for longer acumen. now, i think we can move further along the curve because we have more confidence that the rate
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cuts could be coming and inflation is heading in the right direction. we are more comfortable now. a lot more has been priced in compared to a couple of months ago. we feel yields are likely to deliver a good long-term return. >> janet mui, thank you. happy new year. >> happy new year. time for the check of the top corporate stories with silvana henao. >> happy friday, frank. the u.s. military is reportedly trying to convince shippers to sail through the red sea despite the ongoing houthi attacks. the pentagon is speaking with companies on a daily basis to reassure them the international community is there to help with safe passage. recent data shows roughly half of the container ship fleet that regularly travels the red sea and suez canal is avoiding the route now because of the threat
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of attacks. alphabet's google agreeing to settle the lawsuit claiming it tracked the internet use of millions of people who thought they were producesibrowsing pri. the class action suit was seeking at least $5 billion. the suit claims the analytics and cookies and apps browser to roam when set to private mode. and daidu did not specify if its new ernie bot hits 100 million users. chatgpt had 100 million weekly active users. >> silvana, thank you. see you later on. we have more to come on "worldwide exchange," including the one word investors have to
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know on the final trading day of 2023. we continue our look at the trading year that was in 2023 with bob pisani and our panel lays out if they are putting their money to work in the new year. the fintech play that helped the next guest say he is not cashing out yet. and the pivotal year for the cyberspace wh itthe ceo of qualys. more just ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools,
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." taking a look at the year to date s&p gainers. nvidia up 240% year to date. meta platforms up almost 200% year to date. we have to show you the laggards. enphase energy down 49% and followed by fmc corp and dollar general down 45%. turning back to the markets, a year ago, there were several dark clouds like ninflation and rising rates. the dow now at a record high and the s&p closing in on the all-time mark and the nasdaq set for the best year since 2003. our bob pisani talks about the challenges for 2024. >> one of the big events of 2023 was the magnificent seven
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leading a.i. names like nvidia up 236%. meta up 196%. amazon, alphabet up 50%. the few points of the a.i. rally. hand wringing these were the only a.i. beneficiaries were not true. others benefitted as well. not just semiconductor companies like amd, but anything involved in the cloud businesslike arista cloudflare. if this plays out like other disruptive technologies, expect the ecosystem to expand in 2024. second, hand wringing has not occurred. microsoft's 2024 earnings at 28 times forward earnings estimates is slightly above the five-year average. apple and meta are close to
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their average five-year valuation. third, since rates began declining in october and the soft landing scenario is the dominant paradigm, the magnificent seven is strong as the market has broadened out with the small caps and equal weighted index leading the way. what about 2024 worries? the market is bullish. aside from the geopolitical conflicts, there are three worries for 2024. first, fewer rate cuts than expected. the market is expecting six rate cuts in 2024. the economic growth and wage inflation may be resilient. second, the economy could go into recession. we only need a few disappointing numbers and the financial press will say the recession is here and the public will slowdown spending just enough to have everyone agree we're in a recession. third, earnings and revenue disappointments could occur. analysts are expecting record
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earnings in 2024. 11% higher than 2023. the small number of companies that reported at the end of november noted inflation pressure and lower volumes. as a result, nike and fedex and wayfair all reported revenue lower than expected. analysts started lowering estimates for the companies. keep an eye on revenue which is a 2024 trend that bears watching. back to you, frank. we challenged our guests to good big or go home and give us the best idea for the fourth quarter and beyond. now is the time for the progress report with malcolm ethridge at cic wealth and cnbc contributor. his pick which is sofi is up 31%. it has been a good day for the fintech as the stock has doubled. malcolm, thank you for being
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here. big congratulations. you are a winner of the go big or go home. take avictory lap. >> good morning. always great to be with you, frank, but especially great to be with you today. >> people like to be right. i'm sure it is extra good to be here. malcolm, how does sofi look for 2024? they moved into the mortgage loan business and they have a big student loan business. >> 2024 looks great for sofi. this is the first year in the 12-year history they will tip toe into profitability which is a huge deal as far as courting institutional investors, but a big deal from the regulatory perspective to reduce capital reserve requirements which will allow them to expand into places they have not been able to yet. >> here is the other question. we asked for another pick.
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you said you are sticking with sofi. what makes you bullish on sofi? there is so much competition. >> the big thing about sofi in 2024 is one of the pieces with mortgages and student loans and offering deposit products, but one thing that goes under the radar is the banking sector. that allows others to white label their banking service. i look for apple, for example, who wants to push further into fintech without tacking on the infrastructure required and getting the permitting -- somebody like that, not apple, but somebody like that, i see them looking to partner with sofi in 2024 to get there faster sdp faster. >> possibly a bigger playing partner. we used to have an insider buying segment.
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you are looking at insider buys by the cfo. why is that important for investors? >> for one thing, nothing shows support and nothing shows confidence in a company like the ceo actually purchasing shares of that company personally. every time this company has dipped below the $7 threshold, i noticed that the ceo picks up a lot of shares. i don't know why, but that $7 mark is a key support level for him. i would keep an eye there. >> sounds like you don't see any downside for the stock. would you advise people to buy more shares right now or just hold what they have? it doesn't seem you have any headwinds for sofi. >> it is interesting that fintechs are moving up in the last month. sofi is up 40% in the last four trading weeks. that is a little bit scary to me in the sense this has been a tough year for fintech all
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together. i think we wait a little bit and let the space cool off and the name to cross into the $10 threshold. that is a very important place. i think we can wait a little bit and let the stock cool off. i'm planning to buy more shares. >> last time you were here, i played devils advocate. hard to see when you have that chart there. malcolm, thanks. >> thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," we dig into the 2024 stock playbook and what continued conflicts in the middle east and ukraine mean for the sector. the stocks our next guest is very bullish on. more "worldwide exchange" is coming up in a moment.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." look at the year to date dow gainers. the dow closing at a record high. salesforce doubling for the year. microsoft, the big a.i. push, up over 56%. we have to give you the other side of the coin at the bottom of the dow. walgreens boots down 29%. followed by chevron and johnson & johnson. more companies including okta and clorox with breaches. the rise in cyber attacks going hand-in-hand with increased regulation and insurance costs
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as all companies face stretched budgets. one company is qualys which provides cloud solutions in 130 countries. sales are up 30% this year. joining me now is sumedh thakar. good morning. >> thank you, frank. >> we mentioned the cybersecurity breaches we have seen this year. a lot this year. we mentioned some companies. okta and clorox and mgm just a few. what is the environment as we enter 2024? >> you have to look at a couple of things happening. first of all, every business is becoming digital. that means everybody is deploying more software. more software deempployed means everything is moving to the cloud and assets are deployed and the actors are going after
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the digital assets. you will have the environment which accelerates with more software issues. it is easier for the attackers to go after a business which is a digital business and we continue to see that is the best way they can go after financial things that these companies have to date. >> you beat on eps and you gave forward guidance that beat estimates. some customers including oracle and caterpillar and aflac. >> you have to put a business lens to the cybersecurity conversation. because cybersecurity and cyber risk is the most important risk to business, maturity of the issue is going away from
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whack-a-mole to more of a professional focus on risk management. because cyber brings a certain amount of risk and these companies are looking at ways to communicate and measure this risk with the business and focus on the most important risks pause they know they cannot fix everything. they can eliminate the risk to the ceo and boards. that's more their focus rather than going after individual issues that are coming up. >> in the cybersecurity space, there is a big worker shortage according to the white house. at the same time, we have a growing threat environment. how does a.i. play a factor? >> it is all about position. you are in a place where you have more threats and not enough people. we have to figure out which threats are the ones that are the most impactful to your business. you cannot fix everything. a.i. is important in that. the actors are in one lens.
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folks going after finance and others are the nation state. you have people running businesses and they are using a.i. to be able to more more efficient in the business. so, the cybersecurity defenders on the commercial side are looking at similar approaches and it is imperative they look at similar approaches in a.i. to be able to use a.i. to figure out which of the assets are most likely to be compromised and focus on fixing those to reduce the risk of being compromised. >> sumedh, happy new year. >> thank you, frank. time for the look at the morning headlines. we look at the race for the white house. maine is joining colorado in removing donald trump from the ballot. the maine top election official said the action will not be
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enforced in the court weighs in. the trump organization said they will file an appeal immediately. and the doj threatens texas border in the lawsuit after the letter sent by governor greg abbott. texas has until wednesday to comply, by the governor says the state is prepared to take it to the supreme court. and on thursday night football, joe flacco's touchdown pass from the 39-year-old was one of five first half scores for the browns. cleveland punching a ticket to the playoffs after the win over the jets. coming up here on "worldwide exchange," liftoff. elon musk with some special cao r rgfothe u.s. military. more "worldwide exchange" coming up after this.
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it is 5:30 a.m. in the new york city area. there is more ahead here on "worldwide exchange." here's what's on deck, investors are gearing up with the nasdaq bouncing back for the best performance in two decades. we are digging into the stock playbook as the military conflict and the middle east show he no signs of letting up. also, a legal blow for elon musk and the x platform with the
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fight over content moderation. it is friday, december 29th, the last "wex" of the year. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's start the last trading day of the year with the half hour check on the u.s. stock futures. the dow moving higher. it would open up 32 points higher. the markets are set to close out a very strong year. not even factoring into the possible upward moves. the dow is up more than 13.5%. the s&p up 24%. the nasdaq is the best the all of them in the last 20 years up 4 44%. small caps struggled.
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russell 2000 on pace for the best december ever in history. the best month against the s&p in 24 years. let's look at commodities. gold is gaining shine up 14% on pace for the first positive year in the last three. it is moving to the downside right now. after a rough 2022, cryptocurrency is bouncing back in 2023. take a look here. bitcoin is up 115%. ethereum is up over 97%. that rebound helping to lift crypto stocks. mi microstrategy. up over 365%. bitcoin marathon digital up 700%. coinbase up 425%. look at that chart. speaking of the markets and everything else, we need to get a check of the top corporate
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stories with silvana henao. happy new year. frank, what a year. i'll get to the last set of headlines for you for 2023. let's stick with cryptocurrency. a federal judge ruling against terraform saying the company violated the u.s. law by failing to register the cryptocurrencies before their 2022 collapse. kwan has been charged by prosecutors as he fights what terraform calls meritless claims by the s.e.c. they will have their scheduled trial at the end of january. elon musk is not faring better in the courts with the x platform losing the battle over harmful social media posts on content moderation policies. musk said it violates the free
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speech rights of social media platforms like sony and discovery and apple pause spending over the anti-semitic posts. and speaking of elon musk, the military robot spaceplane taking off from florida last night. the rocket has the potential to reach the highest orbit on record and marks the u.s. military's seventh mission into space following a series of false starts and bad weather. it comes two weeks after china launched its robot spaceplane. its third mission to orbit since 2020. frank. >> silvana, it has been great working with you all year long. >> i'm looking forward to 2024 full of great things. >> we will make it a better 2024. silvana henao, thank you. turning our gears here a bit. geopolitical uncertainty with the aerospace etf up 15% this
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year and the tensions in the middle east and ukraine poised to spill into the new year. we now have margaret brennan with more on 2024. >> reporter: the world became more dangerous in 2023. the global surge in weapons demand will continue in 2024, but will contractors keep pace amid production and the broader budget in washington? those are key questions for the dr industry as stockpiles dwindled. big programs that will benefit the entire industry from northrop to environment. spending on space will grow the fastest and others will compete for contracts. software is a tiny fraction of
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the budget and that will continue to bring the government to bring on more a.i. and other companies to take on more government work. the army will have a prime disruption with the defense policy bill with the record $886 billion which recently became law. the $100 billion package for ukraine is unresolved. the defense spending could close in on $1 trillion. and for stocks, that's based on the last 16 presidential elections. frank. >> joining me now is de degas
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wright. you are a former army captain. you know about the defense space. happy new year. >> happy new year. >> give us a sense how you see the defense sector going into 2024? morgan did a great job highlighting the uncertainty. >> tshe did a great job. that will increase a global demand for weapon systems and the commercial air travel will require greater maintenance and repair parts. that is another positive for the industry going into 2024. >> you have the names you own. lockheed martin. give us a sense for 2024. that is one of the biggest names in defense.
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>> it sis a trusted contract or for air, sea and weapons systems. it has a very good backlog, over $1598 billion, that as the supply chain improves, it will benefit. also, we rank it as top for future performance. it has a 50 cents for free cash flow. >> you are looking at two other stocks. general dynamics and transdem. >> it is a company that provides commercial and defense replacement parts. it is doing well. it is up 68%. let's look at the valuation. it has a 21 times ebita. that is in range for the last five years. although it is up 68%, it still
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has room to grow at this point. general dynamics is a company that provides weapon systems like the m-1-a-2 tank. >> you are bullish on the defense space. morgan laid out the tailwinds for defense. is there anything to make you rethink your investment? >> if you look at lockheed martin, it gets 25% from the jet products being the f-235. if we see a problem, that would give us a reason to pause and look at the stock closer. we would also look in this area of transdigm with merger acquisition. if we see problems with the synergy, that would be an area
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of concern of the companies doing mergers in the space. >> very bullish in the space. geopolitical uncertainty and conflicts and different parts of the world are tailwinds. degas wright, thank you. >> thank you, frank. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the boom in l'oreal is making the first of its find fortunes. and we start with the beatles coming together on the masterpiece outside music. image of a woman jointly made by all four band members going up for auction. it is expected to sell up to $600,000. nfl fans across the country spreading holiday cheer. the triple header on christmas day with the raiders victory
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over the chiefs drawing in over 29 million viewers making it the most watched christmas day game in 34 years. santa got cookies for christmas, but churros are rumored to be discontinued from the costco menu and replaced with cookiesce cream. interesting. "worldwide exchange" will be back in a moment. it■s beginning to look alot like savings! blendjets holiday sale is on now! give the gift of convenience the blendjet 2 portable blender is perfect for everyone on your list. even that picky relative who hates everything. and dont forget the accessories! theyre all on sale! dont wait! our most popular colors and patterns will sell out! go to blendjet.com and take advantage of our
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." a look at the nasdaq 100 gainers. nvidia at the top of the list. and behind that is meta platforms. on the other side of the coin is moderna and illumina. walgreens is rounding it out with the tough year for healthcare. and time for the global briefing. a deal with singapore company to drive zeekr cars in the country. zeekr says the cars will be delivered in 2024. it is plans to sell in the asian markets and middle east. and huawei is forecasting 9% revenue growth for 2024
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following years of u.s. sanction issues. the business remains strong and the device business is benefits from the shipments resuming. the eu competition chief defending the legislation of a.i. saying it will create legal certainty for tech startups building the technology. speaking with "the financial times," this is the first clear set of rules for companies building foundation models similar to those used in chatgpt. coming up, the one word every investor needs to know today. i have a twist on that. plus, the panel lays out the final trading day in 2023. if you haven't already, follow our podcast on apple, spotify or other podcast apps. more "wex" coming up after this. .
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." look at the year to date s&p sector laggards. utilities and real estate at the bottom of the list and getting a boost. on the other side of the coin, technology on top and its cousin cousin, communication services up almost 32% year to date. time for the "wex wrap-up." google settles the lawsuit and that class action suit was seeking $5 billion. baidu says it surpassed 100 million users. the chinese tech company did not specify if the figures for ernie b bo, it was for a specific periof time. alibaba was hit with a $100
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million fine was found to abuse market dominance. the u.s. military is trying to convince shippers to sail through the red sea despite houthi attacks. the companyies are speaking wit the pentagon to ensure safe passage. and u.s. mutual funds are hitting back on pricing methods proposed by the s.e.c. saying they would drive away choice and weaken the american retirement system. the s.e.c. proposed the rules. and the first woman to reach the $100 billion with tl'oreal
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heir. and we have the major averages sitting at record highs. we see green across the board. the dow moving to the highest level of the morning. let's bring in two friends. jeff kilburg from kkm financial and tiffany mcghee. good morning. happy new year to both of you. >> happy new year. >> good morning, frank. >> i want p toto know how you s the current day. what is your word of the day? tiffany first. >> my word of the day is disco. 2023 is a party and everybody showed up. the s&p on the nine-week winning streak. 2023 is the 12th best year since 1980 for the s&p. i see the disco ball spinning. >> tiffany is in a party mood. jeff, what is your wex word?
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>> i wish we were in studio together, frank, to bust out some moves with the disco ball flying. my word of the day or year is resolute. give a hat tip to my english teacher in high school. adjective meaning unwavering or determined. we saw that in september and october, but investors will need this again with the cautious optimistic year in 2024. it will not be linear or a straight line. you need resolution to be determined in investing. >> jeff, let's look ahead to the last trading day of 2023. two numbers to watch. 48.18. intraday high for the s&p. we are above that level. the question is where -- we are at 4,783. do you think we hit these marks? >> i think we vault above 4,800.
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we talk about this, frank. the chase at the end of the year. $6 trillion of cash and cash equivalent. if you look at the s&p 500, which helps us measure momentum, it has been overbought since november. it has been overbought for the last 400 points. people are waiting for a pullback. the market continues to move higher. we will be contingent on the fed. you have to understand what the momentum has done in the last three years post covid. you have to be invested to participate. you have to be selective. with the vix down 12.5 and the all-time highs, i don't see anything stopping or anyone closing the door on the party in 2023. >> jeff, great points there. i was looking at the market close. in the futures, we are at 4,835. >> you are good, buddy. >> same question for you, tiffany. the two numbers?
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4,818 for the intraday high and 4,600 for the close? >> i think we have a good chance of reaching both. thinking about that and i agree with jeff. i don't see the momentum slowing down. on monday, we will have the first official trading day of 2024. i don't expect 2024 to outpace 2023, but i expect another positive year. we have a lot of support and increased corporate earnings. so, you know, we really see this party continuing. >> while we're talking about the party, disco is your word of the day. i want your latest alpha investor survey. we are asking which were the weakest sectors in 2023 and which have the most upside?
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56% say healthcare. 12% say staples. 8% say utilities. jeff, which is the best? >> if you are looking from the trade is bio-tech. it fell out of bed. you will see the ipos come back in 2024 and mergers come back. b bio-tech has a chance to come back. if you are looking for a dog of the dow. >> that's a funny trade. tiffany, any of those sectors see a big rebound next year? >> i think energy and healthcare were the top two. i think they really stand a chance to bounce back. energy was beat up. i absolutely think there is space for it to push forward. >> all right. let's talk about the picks you
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have for us. we love the pick as we enter a new year. jeff, you are talking your own book. ticker essix. you are bullish on tech. talk about your book for a minute. >> as the manager of the stock, i want the essentiality theme. you want to use every day life items. think about the tilt toward tech. intel and ibm. big blue. we forgot about big blue. they are coming and emerging in the cloud business. there are names like that as well as oracle. up 33% on the year. you have to find a way not just to be diversifying in tech, but still have an overweight. >> tiffany, your pick shift for payments. >> frank, we are bullish on tech. we really are looking at the health of the consumer which
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pulled forward and supported growth this year. we expect that to continue into the first half of next year. we are playing that with payments. shift4 payments. a processing for small and large her cmer merchants. they offer the turnkey solution. subscriptions are really significant up over 33%. >> i want to thank you for being great guests. jeff, i have a note. notre dame and oregon state. i know you are a former player. congrats making a bowl game. happy new year. >> thank you. we look one more look at the futures. the dow hitting the highs of the morning. looking to open 44 points higher. thank you for being "worldwide
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exchange" watchers. have a great day and great new year. "squawk box" is up next. loving this pay bump in our allowance. wonder where mom and dad got the extra money? maybe they won the lottery? maybe they inherited a fortune? maybe buried treasure? maybe it fell off a truck? maybe they heard that xfinity customers can save hundreds when they buy one unlimted line and get one free. now i can buy that electric scooter!
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i'm starting a private-equity fund that specializes in midcap. you do you. visit xfinitymobile.com today.
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good morning. sounding a bit like a broken record. dow hitting another all-time high and the s&p on the cusp of finishing the year in record-breaking fashion. we will see what happens today. google settling a privacy suit for tracking billions of customers in searches. and big bets on bowl season. the bad mower pin stripe bowl. here is our lock of the day. it is friday, december 29th.
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"squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm maike santoli along with brian sullivan. futures at this hour are up six points for the s&p. a handful of points away from the record closing high. the dow did hit that record. nasdaq 100 in record territory. the dow's record was the seven account close in all-time high territory this month. we are looking at gains under 14% for the year for the dow. no record for the s&p yet. th

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