on the year. it was a big year for us here at "overtime" as jon fortt and myself took the helm in february i want to say we have the best team in television thank you for all of you for the first year together on "closing bell" overtime that will do it for us here. i hope you have a happy new year "fast money" begins rights nowlit from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, almost new year's, guys this is "fast money. here is what is on tap tonight magnificent or mediocre? how would you rate 2023 on wall street a.i. boomed. tech dazzled, but was the rest of the market nothing to write home about we'll debate that. plus, the flow show. a look at where investors put their money to work this year. what can the etf inflows tell us about the mood of the market now and in 2024? later on, our charts of the year from retail to chips to crypto and beyond.

the traders break out their picks for 2023 and then look ahead to the new year. i'm dominic khiew in for melissa lee coming to you from studio b at the nasdaq market site on the desk, steve grasso, carter worth, julie beal and bonowin iso. we begin with a winning year in the books. a mostly mellow day on wall street with the major averages slightly lower for the year the dow ending below record highs, up nearly 14%. if that wasn't enough, the s&p 500 within a whisper of the record high and the nasdaq seeing its best yearly percentage gain in 20 years. yet it is still 6% below its all-time closing high. one of 2023's most notable performances has been the nasdaq #00, the big tech index having its best year since the dot-com bubble in 1999 believer or not suring by almost 54%

t nvidia rallying 239%. meta platform ripping 194% tesla, jumping 102%. amazon up a paltry 81% google, microsoft, apple also having big years, up about 50% or more for those mega cap names. it is a year that exceeded a lot of expectations. so where can the markets go from here given that setup? steve grasso, since you are here on my right-hand side site we'll start with you >> right here on the right-hand side so i think the knee-jerk reaction is to think the market has pulled forward a lot of performance, so maybe it is due for a correction that's the knee-jerk reaction. i always do the reverse the reverse. i'm not sure where that leads me >> you have confused me already. >> exactly i confuse myself a lot so i think if you look back on performance for january, january's not a terrible month for the markets either so i want to bask a little bit in this bull market blush, if

you will maybe a couple of months more. i do think we are going to get a test the test might be middle of january, it might not be, but i don't think we are looking at a cataclysmic fall off the cliff this is also an election year cycle, so that's sort of the wind behind the bulls. you have a lot of stuff that's going right. you doesn't -- they don't have to -- powell does not have to cut. he just doesn't have to raise again. he has got to cut at a certain point, but i think that cut is going to take place probably mid year where we start to - >> not in march because there is a thought that it is going to happen as early as march >> yeah, and the reason why i think it is mid year versus march is they are to stop qt and i think they're slated to stop qt in june or so so that would line up or else it would confuse the markets, cutting on one and raising on the other. >> all right if you look at the narrative around whether or not the things have been pulled forward, what do you think are we giving up the gains because we have gotten them already in the last two months

>> well, i think it falls into two different buckets. in terms of earnings expectations and earnings growth, i'm not sure it necessarily has been pulled forward. we didn't have much earnings growth this year, and so looking for 10, 12, maybe slightly higher earnings growth, i think perhaps, you know, that's pretty reasonable what i do think has been pulled forward however is the rate story. sorry, steve we're usually seeing high to eye on a lot of these things in this one i think i'm on reverse of your reverse reverse. so, you know, i think the march cut to our pirates in terms of the fed fund cycle, and it is not just about whether or not they cut it is about the extent of cuts as some of our guests have mentioned, this may be 75 to 125 bips overdone. so i think that has been pulled forward. so the macro setup i think is a bit too rosie. i'm not too sure we have much wiggle room for things to go wrong, for consumer spending to

slow down, for housing prices to have hiccups or mortgage rates to back up you have seen credit card balances over a trillion i think any type of shake-up in the consumer backdrop might create -- and the rate backdrop might create hiccups and challenges and headwind for us in 2024. >> julie, what is interesting about the macro backdrop is the rate-cutting expectation is what arguably powered a lot of the small cap move in the last two or three months of the year. do you think that the small caps still need that rate-cutting narrative to continue to try to play catch-up with the large caps >> yeah, absolutely. you need that to happen in order for those to kind of maintain. they always have a little bit of a gap to a large cap, but you really want to have some kind of tailwind in terms of interest rates to kind of support these businesses it is pretty dependent on the soft landing as well most of them are pretty cyclical, pretty sensitive you can find very high-quality businesses in this space, but, you know, if you want to be an investor broadly in small cap

you better hope everything goes right. i agree with bonawyn expectations are really high if there's any kind of bobble i think the market could have a pretty severe correction >> carter, have there been any signs of iffyness in the market? >> let's talk about the concept of pull forward, rieft that only applies to the s&p, perhaps up 24% if you look at the russell 2000 to joe's point, small points, it is up only 15% year-to-date so not a lot of pull forward. consider this. the russell 3000 which represents 93% of the investable in the united states the median stock was up 8 it is the big names that have driven so many of the 11 factors in the s&p only three outperformed the market it has pulled forward in certain areas but a whole lot of things are not pulled forward at all. >> now, does that set you up for this catch-up trade everywhere else in the market besides the magnificent seven or the top ten in the s&p >> right so the real question is take the

russell 2000, all stocks added up are basically the same cap as about apple. so little money is required to move the bottom 2,000. i think that's the play. if one had to do one simple argue, overweight, underweight, small versus large, i would go small. >> steve, what do you think? is it a scenario where small versus large in 2024 >> i don't know. i battle with that it is difficult. i think you can have the russell outperform for certain amounts of time but i don't think it is going to be the theme, because with passive investing there's so much money that's drawn to those larger cap names that you can't help push those names forward and leave the others behind but when you look at the russell, 40% of the russell 2000 is unprofitable. so to julie's point, you need rates to stay low for them to have an equal shot, you know, a bite at the bowl, if you will. so i don't know if that's going to be the theme for the year

we saw when the regional banks collapsed back in 2023, which is earlier on, what was it, in the spring of it basically, we saw the safe haven trade and then we saw the growth trade. so it is the -- lap cap tech is the trade for all seasons. so i think it will always be there. maybe the russell can have a little bit of a day in the sun but i don't think it is a theme. >> the interest rate complex is always going to be a focus because of the way it influences valuations i wonder, bonawyn, if you look at the valuations of the market right now, there are those that believe that the market is trading at the average forward price-to-earnings multiple it has over the last five years, so it is fairly valued. others say you got to look at the interest rate fixture as well is the market fundamentally valued >> i would say it is fully valued certainly i think around 19, maybe 19 1/4

times. i don't think you can argue it is undervalued by any stretch of the imagination. like other panelists have said, there are pockets. you know, that 19 times is a blend. so there are certainly pockets that are quite expensive you know, if we are looking at the apples of the world, for example, within the magnificent seven, i think it is very different from looking at some of the banks, for example, trading at eight times for example. i don't think it is a mono lichting situation in terms of the s&p 500 historical average, sure, over five years or so, three or four years, 19 times seems to be in line over a longer period of time i would argue it is on the rich side. >> julie, any signs of stress you are seeing in credit markets that would lead you to believe we are in for a pause or downturn over the next several months >> for sure. anyone who has variable rate interest debt, so auto, those guys have seen more delinquencies rising mortgage is still quite stable but it is because everyone locked in really low rates so i think that is the place to

kind of keep paying attention to on the health of the consumer, and then obviously the market market is the place we are all really worried about, how that's going to pan out >> of course, we are in an office building right now, guys. our next against out with a new note saying that the markets could kick off 2024 with a short-term pull back let's bring in new wage wealth's ben emmons ben, you heard the conversation on the desk. i wonder what you think about the overall big picture for the economy, is it supported and why do you think we are due a pull back >> with the pull back, there are several times i think for the short term if you look at the rsi indicator, the s&p, the nasdaq and the russell all are overbought on the indicator, but mostly they're overbought as much as they were overbought during the 2020-21, you know, they say bubble moment they even overbought for a longer period of time. you know, i think it is almost like a month and a half now, so

that's quite stretched if you take the story to interest rates, which is discussing, the market, the bond market in my calculation is probably priced more like 75 basis points of excess rate cuts it almost looks like the bond market is priced for this perfect scenario for a second to faster, deeper cuts. i think that's the tension as we're getting into the new year. you know, we have a packed agenda of big data the economy shows some sign of acceleration and gdp went from 1 1/4% to 2 1/4% over the last weeks and some acceleration is going on i think interest rates are primed to pick up a little bit from here and then take back the overbought condition on the equity indices >> what part of the market is going to be the most vulnerable to the pullback? is it the stocks led to the upside if that's the case i with stocks do you put on the list in case it is a dip to buy >> so i found notable, dom, if you look at small caps, right, and you plot it against the junk

market, you know, take the jnk etf against the russell 2000 etf since the end of october it is exactly straight line up, more like a lock step as julie says and steve says, these sectors are highly interest rate sensitive. almost sensitive to relief of interest rates if you get a bit of a backup in rates i think there is where you see the first real correction. it seems like a bit of a frothy moment there in each market. on the other hand, you know, the big cap, the mega cap are probably going to stay in a good trend here because it is really about earnings i don't see these earnings being downgraded so quickly just because we are getting short correction rates >> ben, when you look at overbought, obviously overbought stock can be overbought, the market can be overbought and it can work that off. as far as the second pivot, i think the second pivot is going to come from inflation falling a

lot quicker. have you calculated that do you think that could fall in a precipitous fashion and leave powell sort of trying to catch up >> yeah, i think it is a good point, steve, in a sense that if you look at the pc deflator that came out the other day, you know, in that basket that's deflation now. it is about what i calculated, about 10%, 15% of the index is in deflation for the last sort of six months. a lot of the categories are influenced by supply, so maybe to an extent not so surprising, but it is telling. so say that that deflation starts spreading further in the core pc deflator, then you get the scenario we saw in 2022. the fed again is behind the curve ironically and have to come forward with more rate cuts faster i think at this moment where we are right now, you know, we're not in that accelerated down movement inflation yet i think it probably will be more the second half of the rate cuts starting again, idea that the economy

stays on its feet and inflation just continues to moderate giving the fed room for some rate cuts. >> so, ben, in terms of gold, obviously something i know you like quite a bit, here we are two years later from the peak in the s&p. the s&p is basically unchanged and yet gold is up some 14%, one of the best assets over that two-year period. obviously you're sanguine on gold, you think gold is going higher this year if you had to pick gold versus the s&p for the next 12 months, which do you prefer? >> well, gold is interesting, carter, because, you know, this is asset that can outperform in an environment when there's uncertainty, but it can also outperform in an environment with easing conditions and that's what is happening currently. fed, the last month as we talked in the previous show, gold had a reasonable performance in december it actually broke out to a record high when we talked about it i think this has more scope. i mean if 2024 is a year where a lot of people do expect fair bit of uncertainty, it probably will

fuel gold. on the other hand, this rate cut story as we talked with steve about, like, yeah, if you get accelerated rate cuts gold will go a lot higher. to me gold is a really interesting asset for 2024 as a diversification portfolio. i think it could add depth, in that sense value >> makes a lot of sense. >> hi, ben bonawyn here happy holidays to you. in terms of the dollar, it looks like it has made a round trip in the past year or so. could you give us a bit of insight in what you are looking for dollar strengths or weakness and twhat the implications are for offshore investing opportunities in >> yes, if you look at the move, you know, it is really the peripheral currencies like norwegian corona and kiwi and those type of currencies driving the move when i think about the dollar getting weaker from here, you have to pay attention to the japanese yen

now we are getting signals from the boj government data they are ready to make a move on rates sometime in the next quarter, and japan has been a story of really good stock market but with a really weak currency. so the currency is a lot of scope to rally i think that will be a big push for the dollar getting weaker. in addition, you do have the story in europe of some mild recession happening in certain countries like germany, yet the ecb is not keen to pull the trigger on rate cuts faster than the fed does so the euro will continue to have a bit of a lift here. so to me when the dollar index gets below 100, you know, the history of that shows that commodity prices in emerging markets start to really lift up. so i think the dollar index has more scope to go down, and i think really if you look at emerging markets, emerging market bond really look attractive in that sense >> ben, before we let you go, what's the key part of the stock

market you will watch in 2024? what's the big story line you will be keying on? >> it is definitely the cyclical part of the market, dom. if you think about the soft landing of the economy and so much of that now priced into that sector, you think of small caps, you think of consumer staples and consumer discretionary, i think this is where the big story will be if the soft landing doesn't pan out, that part of the market will be downfall >> all right let's end it right there ben emons, thank you very much kind it send it around here. happy new year, ben, for you all right. let's trade this, guys carter, we heard the big conversation right now is there a key part of the market you think that is poised giving the convo we just had with regard to 2024's out performance story? >> i think the bet is again if one is any bullish at all i think it has to be small cap the divergence is getting to a near record and we had recent out performance, but my favorite

asset class for 2024 is gold hard stop. >> gold is the trade still to come on the show we will go inside the flow show how much money did investors pile into the market and where did they put it. first, the consumer showed up and showed out this year the spending spree fuelling big gains in discretionary sector in 2023 is 2024 the year they tap out or can you make money betting on the consumer we will debate when "fast money" returns. we are back in two you are watching "fast money" here on cnbc. we'll be right back.

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i hope you enjoy these amazing gifts. oh my goodness. oh, you guys. i know you like wrestling, so we got you some vip tickets. you have made an impact. so have you. for you guys to be out here doing something like this, it restores a lot of faith in humanity. welcome back to "fast money. we are recognizing the big spenders out there who are playing a major role in a historic year for the markets. the consumer discretionary sector rallying almost 40% this year, right behind only technology and communication services on a year-to-date basis performance. tesla and amazon were among the biggest winners in the group by far. what are the odds this consumer trend can keep spending and keep going in 2024? bonawyn, we'll start with you. >> yeah, i mean i -- you mentioned a good point

if you look at amazon and tesla, i think that's about 41% or 42% of that xly. so i do think there's been a lot of performance that's been driven from just that tandem of stocks if you look a bit broader, i think, you know, really for all of the people, myself included, that were calling for a recession this year, it made a lot of sense to be short the consumer that hasn't happened so you tend to get that type of catch-up trade i also think it makes a bit of sense to perhaps look at xrt as opposed to just xly because of the weighting issues that i just mentioned. if you look there, you are looking at about half of the performance or around 20%. so i think that might give you a bit more insight into a bit more true insight into the health of the consumer and what is likely to come from the second half of -- sorry, the first half of 2024 as perhaps there are more challenges than are realized >> julie, what do you think? is the consumer going to power the u.s. economy and market again in 2024? >> i mean the consumer powers

our economy regardless of whatever is happening, right it is thanks to the consumer, the health and their willingness really to spend their incremental dollar that we are where we are my concern continues to be that we just don't have the level of cushion that we did in the last two years. november marks two years that the savings rate has been below the long-term average, and so we all know that eventually the music has to stop. people event cally have to give themselves a little more cushion. if there's any weakness in employment data, again, people don't have that cushion and it is going to impact discretionary spend the most that's a place i'm really concerned. i don't think it really even matters by cohort or income level, right you look at retailers and you saw retailers at the same level, high end, low end, whatever, some did well, some didn't you are to provide value now you really have to execute >> all right steve. >> yeah. >> speaking of cushion, gasoline prices have been a bit of a tailwind they've been coming down incrementally. that should be helpful for that

discretionary spending that julie just spoke about >> the u.s. is at record production right now, and the saudis tried to support that price. opec tried to have cuts that were supportive of energy prices it didn't work whenever -- whenever the saudis or whenever opec cuts, you should be selling oil, not buying it. i think it is always counterintuitive i think the big piece that we're missing is where i started the u.s. is producing more than anyone thought they would produce under a biden administration it is an election year cycle we need oil to stay level. oil will most likely stay low or gas will stay low, but getting back to what julie said, there was so much money thrown at the consumer during the pandemic yes, we are seeing that come in a little bit, but they still have that cushion, and as long as unemployment rates stays around historic lows, as long as the consumer has a job, as long

as we stay really employed in this country, i don't think you are going to see a real test here there's been employment hoarding, job hoarding nobody wants to fire anyone unless you are in a tech company where you are forced to layoff because you have ramped up employment so much over the pandemic as long as you have a job, i think the consumer is okay all right. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here is what is coming up next gold strutting into 2024 with its eyes on prize record highs will investors take a shine to the precious metal in the new year or will it lose its luster. we will scour the charts, coming up. >> plus, a record year for buy-now-pay-later, affirm affirming its status as 2023's top tech stock, but with the high flyer keep the pace after quintupling? we will tackle that trade next you are watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we are back right after this

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welcome back to "fast money. gold shining bright. the precious metal ending the day slightly lower, but it is closing out the year up more than 13% its first positive year in three, and this as invest contributors turn away from u.s. dollar on weakness carter, that currency and gold story is kind of intermingled. >> right there's two kind of relations, inverse and direct there is this overarching theme that there's an inverse relationship between the dollar and gold bullion, but that's a shorter term phenomenon. that can be the case in a rolling three, six-month basis but the main message from gold here is that it has been contending with the prospects of a breakout for three years

in fact, gold is exactly where it was 2000, 75 an ounce plus or minus in late 2020 there is an adage, the more authority it has, the m more authoritative the resolution we are just probing all-time years. it is the beginning of what should be a multi-year and very important move again, i would point out if the s&p is the big thing and we are now back two years later, how did gold do versus the s&p 500 since the all-time high. it killed it 14% versus over the last two years. >> bonawyn, what do we think about that gold trade? >> i think the fundamentals stack up and support carter's technical view i mean he always mentions the fundamentals, but just like adding in the other aspect of it, essentially you have dollar weakness which i think is supportive you have uncertainty coming forward, whether or not you are a bull or a bear you have to admit there's some uncertainty in terms of rates, the extent of

cuts and the ability for the consumer to continue to spend. i think those two things as well as the technical picture support gld or however else you want to invest in gold >> julie, is it a part of any portfolio allocation that you are looking at right now, precious metals in general, gold, maybe even silver these days all right. let's throw it to you because i think we're having some problems >> yes so what carter just talked about correlations and when i look at digital gold which is bitcoin, there's a lot of those side bets on the stocks that are related to bitcoin or cryptocurrencies that have outperformed so when you look at gold, i don't disagree with anything carter said. i think that gold will have eventually its breakout time in the sun, but there's a lot of gold bugs that are aging there's not a lot of the younger generation or more bitcoin or cryptocurrency centric so i think you are going to wind up pushing those stocks higher

and those will be competing for, so bitcoin is the digital gold and then you have gold i think they will be fighting it out. >> they already had a huge run, a huge run this year guys, coming up on the show, the chart of the day, the chart of the week. no, we're talking chart of the year, or multiple charts of the year the traders look back on the most important charts of 2023 and layout the names that they're watching for a breakout in 2024. plus, the ark innovation fund roaring back to life to finish out 2023 as one of the market's top -- yes, top exchange-traded funds. what other surprise names made a splash we will go inside the best and worst etfs of 2023 with a top expert in the industry right after this

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welcome back to "fast money. stocks dipping into the red on the last trading day of a very good year. the dow falling just about a tenth of a percent the s&p dropping about 13 points, and the nasdaq finishing just about a half a percent lower. a handful of big names closing

out the year at fresh all-time highs. talking names like lululemon, boston scientific, general dynamics, ross stores amongst others now on to the flow show. 2023 was a strong year for efts with total inflows crossing half a trillion dollars a hundred billion of that coming in november alone. investors piled into u.s. equities and taxable bond funds this year as well as, what else? large cap stocks, single tom etfs and cryptocurrencies. here to take us inside the number is todd rosenblum thank you for being here let's talk about trends for 2023 what stood out to you? >> we started the year with investor interest in fixed income protecting against rising interest rates the last two months have been $100 billion each, november and december according to verified data we have seen money going into etfs, particularly large cap

equity etfs, spy, the etf from state street has actually been driving that significant inflows in the month of december as people prepare for year-end heading into 2024. >> if you take a look at the way things shaped up for 2024, what do you think will be the big thing, thematic etf wise that will draw the most attention and money in >> well, the most attention is certainly going to be potential spot bitcoin etf being approved, likely in the next week or two, and then launching soon after. we expect that the exchange conference we at vetify host, there will be those lining up to do so. we. >> blackrock and bit wise will be likely to convert then it will be what happens with the federal reserve, the number of rate cuts that happen and do we get a rotation towards value and more defensive investing as opposed to risk-on growth we have seen so far this year

>> do you think it is going to be more of an attention getter, bond funds and crypto funds versus stock etfs, which is what many people just think about when they think about etfs >> stock etfs still will be driving the lion share of the inflows year after year. it is whether it is a risk-on or risk-off environment we are seeing investors rotate into etfs to get exposure to their bonds, through tlt for example we saw 20-year treasury was most popular fixed income etf you were talking about gold earlier but equities with still king in etf space. >> when you look at the passive nature of investing, and spider, spies blue all reports does it make sense that they're buying larger cap names or they have a shot at small cap names,

do you see them jockeying for position on the attention of the consumer >> we have seen small cap rally in recent weeks and months as rates have pulled back roughly 2000, itm has performed really well, we have seen other products doing well. i think if the market broadens out as is likely to happen in 2024, we see more small cap, more equally weighted getting attention. rsp, the equal waited s&p 500 pulled in top inflows for the year despite significantly underperforming the broader market there's large etf for most exposures people want. >> what about this idea, we mentioned single stock etfs being a huge growth area it is not an absolutely large part, but what part about the stock market do you think, what kinds of stories, what kinds of companies will be driving that etf stock narrative in 2024? >> well, we saw in '23 it was coin baste, it was tesla, it was nvidia and there are leveraged,

1 1/2 times leveraged etfs that exist for people that want ease of use instead of buying options directly we are seeing options use in other strategies through covered calls. jpmorgan's jepi has been extremely popular. it has helped to drive actively managed etfs i think we will see more adoption of actively managed etfs headed into 2024, whether it is a more single stock specific approach to it or broader market that is more defensive agency more have come into the market. >> thank you very much happy new year to you. >> happy new year to you all >> thanks very much, todd. let's go out to julie right now. can you tell me whether or not your clients are demanding etf products and exposure more so than say single stocks and has it been trending that way, one way or the other, over the last several years? >> sure. i think you could definitely see, you know, the average retail investor is looking at etfs as a way to gain exposure, and then for the hot stocks like

a tesla you definitely see the single-stock etfs getting more interesting for them you know, for us managing the mutual funds themselves we don't trade in the etfs but we do compete against them i think that they can be a really great way for investors to gain diversification, but it is -- you know, these single stock etfs that give you leverage, i think people don't really recognize how powerful it can be when it goes against you. that's the only thing i would keep in mind >> all right that does it for the etf trade coming up on the show, riding the buy now, pay later wave bnpl shares of a firm are quintupling this year. you heard that right quintupling. i will say it again. as the financing option gains some steam, can the name keep riding that swale in consumer buy now, pay later we will debate it coming up next plus, the charts of this year and next, where traders have their favorite technical picks for 2023 and a new year's osna as well the mes when "fast money" returns after this

a force to be reckon with. no, not you saquon. hm? you! your business bank account with quickbooks money, now earns 5% apy. 5% apy? that's new! yup, that's how you business differently. money. affirm is closing out 2023 as the year's very top tech stock this comeback lost more than 90%

of its value in 2022 before roaring back to life in a record year for the buy now, pay later trade. but can that stock, affirm that this year. see what i did there or is it just a fluke. kate rooney joins us with more on the story hi, kate >> hi, dom affirm may be the most improved player the lender was looking at losses around 90% at this time last year, and unprofitable tech name like affirm were the most beaten names as the fed started hiking rates. with rate cuts on the horizon investors have warmed up to the money-losing growth stories out there. it is a way for the investors to get in on the buy now, pay later trend. they're up about 15% this year, according to adobe affirm is among the most highly shorted name short covering this year sparked some of the biggest rallies in affirm and it has become among retail investors' favorite stocks, almost a quarter of volume in december, for example,

came from individual traders according to vander research morgan stanley for example calls the valuation right now hard to justify. they say it is aggressive assumptions at this point, and they say that will still only drive a dollar in earnings by 2028 but in the near term, rally has been a good thing for some of the company insiders shopify, for example, the e-commerce company owns 4%, that stake over half a billion dollars. we have the ceo with a company stake now worth $1.4 billion so a lot to celebrate for him here coming into the new year, dom. back to you. >> some affirmation. >> quintuple or quintuple, we are debating this. >> you say potato, i say potato. happy new year >> happy new year, dom let me look at a three or four-year chart on this.

>> you bring up a sialient point you could say affirm was down 92% from its high and now it is down 73% i mean, okay, it moved a lot but it is not a -- this is the kind of thing that happens when you drop 90%, but you are still so impaired it was a $76 stock it is trading at $49 i would fade the strength. >> what do you think, steve? >> so this is one where we started off the show talking about lower rates. this is the reason why these names really take off, and if you look at sofi or an affirm, is there more left in the take i wish i would have caught that. so i agree completely with what carter is saying nothing changes but the math of where you entered the name so had i, you know, been smart enough to see that happening, i would have like to have had those gains. can it go higher rates have to continue to fall >> all right now, bonawyn, this is a story that could have legs or has it run its course what do you think? >> listen, i think over the long term, the bull case argument

essentially they're going to be a full-stop one-stop shop financial institution. so i think the long-term story, sure, if you buy into it, i can get behind that. with that said, i am more of a fader of this name, but i have been down this road before in terms of these rebel stocks with high short interests and a very keen retail following. so the volatility in the name, you know, frankly, if i'm trading it on the short term i'm actually probably buying it with an -- looking for opportunities to get short, but with a very, very tight stop on covering those shorts >> julie, this is a name that a lot of people got into with the walmart news remember when they said they were going to expand their partnership with walmart and they were going to have buy now, pay later at self checkout kiosks at walmart. has it become a retail phenomenon because people know the name >> yeah, i think that's right.

i think the retail investor is starting to support this name. they see it, they use it, and so it feels like great name to own, kind of like tesla you know, at the end of the day though the fundamentals of this business aren't great. it is hard for me to get excited about something earning $1 in 2028 to feel confident with a business model that hasn't been back tested and that is completely reliant on people's willingness to pay back a sweater that they bought six months ago when student loans are coming in. for me for a fundamental long-term investor, this isn't for me >> all right coming up on the show, it has been the moment you have been waiting for, the "fast money" traders are going to reveal their charts of the year in 2023 and the names they could be the charts of 2024. you are not going to want to miss this so stay tud.ne

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welcome back to the big show "fast money. with 2023 trading in the books and the new year approaching fast, we thought we would be at least looking for a good time to get our traders' top picks for 2023 for the charts and where they're setting their sights on 2024 carter, you are the chart master, technician the top chart for this year and next >> if you just went with

performance, the number one performing stock in the s&p 1500 composite is abercrombie and fitch, up almost 300% but it is too much this stock has a boom and bust cycle. several times it had 300%, 400% returns only to give it back if you look back over the last 20 years and we suspect that is what is coming a lot will be given back in terms of 2024, gold again. >> i didn't see that coming. >> you never saw that coming. >> no, shocking. >> and general electric also just to point out, this is an important -- of all of the stocks when we say a stock is up 300% or that affirm, those are not important companies. general electric is a very important company. it just had its best year ever, up 95% i would think there's more to come >> all right julie, what do you think about yours? >> so i think you heard the option of getting a stock that did as well performance wise as tesla but you get it without a

megalomaniac mid life crisis guy running, so this is fair isaac fico the company delivered 94% growth in its performance it is a really stable, high-quality business that obviously has exposure to consumer credit. a great brand. really high moat i'm not surprised it was an out performer this year. for 2024, you know, there has been so much pentup demand to be doing deals, and i would expect a lot of p/e firms are getting calls from lps to liquidate and it has been pretty static, but we are seeing more opportunities. moelis is an investment bank almost entirely focused on this. they have the resources to be able to execute on these deals so i think it is particularly well positioned. it has such strong earnings power. >> interesting fair isaac a good one bonawyn, what do you think >> so i don't think you can really mention 2023 without at least hinting at the a.i. story. i think nvidia has been the

poster child for that. so nvidia given their performance and just given the thematic presence of a.i. in 2023, that's my pick there as for 2024, i think that the glp1 and weight loss drugs have put an enormous amount of pressure on the non-novo, non-lilly major pharmaceutical names to do deals, to grow their portfolio and drug pipeline. the reason -- and the way they're likely going to be able to do that is through acquisitions we have been on the show talking about ibb versus xbi i actually like xbi in this particular case because of the fact that given the weighting, a very small acquisition that you are paying 200, 300 times for can drive performance in an outsized way that's what i'm looking for in 2024 >> interesting steve, round it out for us your picks >> gray scale, ethereum trust. we talked about it before in the

etf segment just briefly this is a name that has really had a tailwind of getting to that etf status. if they are granted it, granted that status. it is up over 300% this is a name that i have been in it has been my first or second top holding depending on the price on the day this is one that i think has further gas left in the tank, but it had an incredible 2023. switch to 2024 much more boring this is a name that you know paper and packaging, and people out there in the x verse know the one i'm talking about. >> are you going to talk about cardboard? >> i'm going to talk about corrugated, i'm going to talk about cardboard. want to pick my brain? >> i don't >> westrock. they're being taken over, it will be the largest paper company so it has that cyclical bang for 2024. no one is paying attention to it when the deal officially closes, i think people are going to wish

they had the chance to buy this thing. this could be one of those up 100% as well. >> i love it a name we don't often talk about here on "fast money. westrock thanks very much for the charts and trades coming up next, your final ept ghhees ke irit re

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♪ ♪ all right. it is time for the final trades. let's go around the horn julie, you first >> you know, bonawyn touched briefly on the biotech situation. i think the funding is going to come back. azenta is one of the service providers this that space and i think they're well positioned to do well in 2024. >> bonawyn >> listen, i think historically conventional wisdom has been you can be long japan but you don't want to be long the currency given i think what we are seeing in both fxy and the dollar, you can actually own both. ewj. >> all right carter >> gld, of course, the spdr gold eflt ultimately silver. i would own both in a big way. >> steve >> it is new year's. >> it is coming up >> there will be a million people out there in a couple of days >> happy new year to everyone out there. dom, you are dropping the ball this year. >> no, i'm not

>> are you not >> fake news not going to happen. not going to happen. >> so another deal stop, dish network. everyone forgets about this stock including myself it is up 58% for the month i think it can go higher >> all right, everyone thanks very much for joining us here on this final trading day of the year. happy new year my mission is simple. to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. my job is not just to entertain, but to put it all in context. call me at (800) 743-2622. i am constantly on the show telling you that