it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters and here is your "five@5." stocks kicking off in year record territory after the blockbuster 2023. we breakdown the biggest moves in 2023 and set you up for success in the new year. in japan, a developing story after a massive earthquake killed at least 48 people, the entire region in a standstill. iran stepping up the presence in the red sea and the u.s. sinks three houthi war ships. and elon musk and global ev

domination under threat by one buffett-backed player in china. and we wrap up a record-breaking holiday retail season with a few names to add to your stock shopping list. it's tuesday, january 2nd, 2024. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. ♪ good morning and welcome to the first "worldwide exchange" of 2024. i'm frank holland. let's look at futures right now. a bit of a mixed picture. you see the dow as we start there which is coming in the green. it would open up 30 points higher. s&p is flat. the nasdaq is what we are watching right now fractionally lower. this after wall street closing out the year with modest losses. 13% gain for the dow in 2023.

the s&p's 24% gain and the m meteoric rise for the nasdaq. check out the yields. a bit higher for most of december. the benchmark ten-year yield at 4.03. and now going to oil. wti is up 2.25%. similar for brent crude. let's see how europe is doing with joumanna bercetche in the london newsroom. >> good morning, frank. happy new year. european markets are starting off in the green on this first trading day of the year after a stellar 2023.

the stoxx 600 did p end the yea up 12%. fully compensating for the losses in the prior year of 2022. the ftse 100 is around the flat line. we had a bit of data. the final eurozoning manufacturing pmi numbers came through for the month of december. upward revision .4%. we saw a downward revision in the eurozone. we have m & s at the tonip of t board. that's giving retailers a bit of a boost this morning. we are seeing positivity in oil stocks. no surprise given the price action with spot oil this morning. dax is up .70%. seeing a bounce in the industrial names this morning. the cac 40 is up .40% in france.

we are seeing a bit of a jump in the banks today. soc gen up 2.5%. quite the ride for the european banking system. what does 2024 bring? lots of questions. as of now, there are 150 basis points of rate cuts priced from the ecb. will they tldeliver? we will see. thank you, joumanna. investors would like a slower and calmer return to work, but there is a ton of economic data and ism manufacturing services and the fed minutes all topping that list. these reports could be a test of the belief that a series of rate cuts could come starting as early as march. traders are pencilling in 150 basis cuts in 2024.

let's talk more with joanna gallegos. >> good morning. >> i want to start off with what you are looking at with the strong year in the markets. you actually say that u.s. treasuries are the place you want to be, specifically short-term treasuries. the one-month yield is still above 5%. is that the short-term treasury you are talking about? >> we think it is great for cash management and liquidity needs. given where we are at the end of the fed rate hiking cycle and potential rate cuts this year, we feel you should look at risk assets as well. in the shorter side of treasuries, you want to manage your cash there. if you want to take a little bit more duration exposure and think about additional return in treasuries, we recommend around the 3% or 5% or 7% year space.

>> i know you are bullish with the fixed forincome forecasts. the best total return in 2023 out of the bond landscape according to your data. tracking the first 11 months of 2 2022. how much of this attractiveness is based on fed rate cuts? >> i think what you want to remember is that we also had a total regime change in interest rates in the last year. because interest rates are higher, no matter the outcome of downturns in the market or rate cuts, increased coupon levels will support any other volatility. you can't deny that 2023 was a banner year for high-yield assets and corporate debt in general. we love to call attention to the

ccc category. it returned over 20% in 2023. you know, as people are starting to put on risk and thinking about equity, we want them to stop off and think about the opportunities in corporate debt. they they come with a lot less volatility. fixed income is back to levels that it hasn't been since the great financial crisis. these are more normal interest levels. the economy is resilient and consumers have weathered the storm well. >> joanna gallegos, thank you. >> thank you. turning attention to a developing story. at least 48 people were killed in the series of earthquakes in japan on new year's day. rescue teams are struggling to reach survivors in areas where building collapsed. the quake hit a port city 140

miles north of tokyo. it triggered a tsunami warning sweeping cars into the sea. this morning, we continue to watch the situation right now. again, massive earthquake hitting central japan. we continue to look for aftershocks. as of this morning, nine flights connecting cities to osaka have been canceled. toshiba has stopped production to check for damage. the weather agency downgraded all tsunami warnings overnight. we continue to monitor this story as it develops. also in japan, all 379 passengers and crew on board the airbus a-350 that caught fire on the runway in tokyo have been evacuated.

the japan coast guard said it may have collided with the plane. much more on the story later in the hour. a lot more to come on "worldwide exchange," including the one word investors need to know today. first, the red sea shipping shows no signs of easing. wrapping up a record holiday season in retail and da david davidson says this should be high on your shopping list. and our next guest lays out the case for real estate. a very busy hour when "worldwide exchange" returns. easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market.

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only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." a look at the top corporate stories with silvana henao. silvana, happy new year. >> happy new year, frank. let's get you headlines. the first of the year. berkshire backed byd said it sold more than 3 million vehicles in 2023 and more than 526,000 last quarter. that is up 662% from a year ago. this puts the company on track to surpass tesla for a second straight year. tesla is set to report sales figures today with the analysts expecting 483,000 units in the fourth quarter sold. after a 100% gain in 2023, doordash could have more upside

in the year ahead. in the interview with "the financial times," the ceo says the increasing cash pile will allow for investment outside of the u.s. and the core restaurant business including working with bj's wholesale. the pga tour and liv golf are looking to extend the merger deadline originally set for december 31st, 2023. the pga commissioner said the goal forthis year is to reach agreement with strategic sports group which includes fenway sports. that is saudi investment fund and dp world tour to bring them on board as minority investors. >> a lot to watch. thank you, silvana. thank you very much. turning attention now to the developing story. oil prices are starting the new year higher following the clash with houthi rebels and the u.s.

navy. traders are looking at the p supply issues in the middle east after the sinking of ships in the red sea. t tehran sent a war ship in the region. let's talk more about this latest disruption of global trade with craig fuller. happy new year. >> thanks, frank. >> you sent us data. container shipping rates from asia to europe is up 50% since the tattacks ss started. how meaningful is this with the global supply chain? >> the reality is container rates have risen quite a bit since the attacks started to take place. if you compare to where we were two years ago, we are down 50%.

going up from $1,000 to $1,700 a container. we were over $10,000 per container two years ago. we talking a dramatic increase, but it is nothing compared during the covid highs. >> got it. there was talk about supply shortages in europe and maybe shelves empty and things taking longer to get. there you talked about the u.s. supply chains. whether it is in europe, asia, america, are you expecting we will see shortages of things and empty shelves? what we saw during the pandemic? >> not here in the united states. the u.s. doesn't have significant dependability on the suez. most of the trade goes from china to the united states or from asia to the west coast.

really, when we look at these impacts, it is mostly focused on europe. >> are there any long-term implications? we have seen the biden administration try to build a coalition to address the tension in the red sea and conflicts. are there long-term implications? >> europe has to step up and take ownership. it impacts them far greater than the united states. long term, this promotes a trend since covid which is more domestic on-shoring manufacturing. companies moving the supply chains back to the americas and it promotes production in places like mexico and colombia. supply chain professionals don't want to deal with geopolitical risk and potential disruption that are well outside their control. >> craig fuller, thank you very much for your time. >> thanks, frank. >> the red sea disruption is one of several flash points that

could impact global mashlths t markets this year. the israel-hamas war is even tear entering a longer phase. and tensions with china could ratchet up with the elections looming in the next few weeks. and 2024 is an election super sabdullas cycle year. let's discuss with stephen, our next guest. >> good to be here. >> we laid out a number of things going on globally. which is the number one thing investors should be paying attention to? >> the tension in the red sea which could spread to the indian ocean is the mostpotential market moving aside from the comments from yourprevious guest. you see trade patterns and a

number of ships s are hesitatin going into the red sea and considering going around the horn of africa. they have built a coalition to protect ships, but the shipping companies are not purchase about i it. iran has brought another war ship into the red sea. there is a possibility of strikes from the houthi toward shipping and from the u.s.-led coalition which was bolstered by britain over the weekend on the targets. >> you mentioned the most meaningful for investors. give us a sense if your portfolio could be hurt by the tensions or is there an area to invest in an escalation of a military presence in the area? >> correct. certainly we have seen between ukraine and israel-hamas war and

now tensions in the red sea and movement in the defense stocks which i could discuss. the immediate effect today is with natural gas and oil prices. they were on a downtrend. they popped up. there is a cold snap in europe which is moving natural gas prices. as far as the more secular investment for investors to consider, since spring of 2022, since the initial invasion of russia of ukraine, a dramatic move of stocks. that's certainly an actionable way. >> one area to look at with the product and market global index. one other thing i want to talk about is japan. a serious and deadly earthquake there. before this, we are looking at

the markets and possibly japan reaching all-time highs? >> i was lucky to be with julianna in london a few months ago. i said we will have all-time highs, meaning surpassing the '89 bubble top. despite the tsunami and the runway a few hours ago, there's a number of initiatives long term with corporate governance and shorter term with the liberalization of individual savings accounts that is going to have a strong positive influence on the market. as this happens, a lot of foreign investors will emulate warren buffett who has been increasing stake in the japanese trading companies. japan is one of the few markets

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welcome back to "worldwide

exchange." the holiday shopping season is not over yet as people head back to the stores to return not so i deal gift. key trends include an uptick in online spending and apparel and increased restaurant traffic. joining me to discuss what it means for retail investing is michael baker at d.a. davidson. great to you have here. >> good morning. thank you for having me. >> michael, you are looking at equities in the retail sector. since the start of the holiday shopping season on november 1st, retail is out performing the s&p and s&p equal weight which diffuses the tech. what does it mean for 2024 for investing and retail stocks? >> we are positive on retail stocks. we think we will get a continuation from mid-november. it is simple. interest rate driven.

when interest rates are coming down, that's good for stocks and good for retail stocks relative to the overall market. retail does out performance the market. the needs did better last year in 2023. we think the want-related needs will do better. >> i thought people were already spending on the wants with hospitality and travel. i think that leads us into the picks for us. your picks include ulta. one of the most discretionary areas. p beauty and makeup. why are you bullish on the name? >> it is a great long-term holding. you are right. they did well last year in sales. the stock did not do as well last year. we think that gives us the opportunity for a really strong and high quality best of breed

retailer at an attractive valuation for that name for quite some time. >> one of the other picks is o'reilly auto. you are talking about interest rates lower giving a boost to retail. o'reilly is a play on higher interest rates because the interest rates to buy a new car is so high. as interest rates go down, why is that an upswing for o'reilly? >> top picks are o'reilly and ulta and dick's. we like o'reilly. we did elevate it to our best of breed bison pick. it creates a long-term winner with market share with true mo moves. it is an exception because. business model.

the moat they have around the franchise with distribution and long-term winner at the valuation which is attractive. that is because of the 20% margin they generate which leads to strong free cash flow. we put it on dcf and it looks attractive. >> ulta and o'reilly and dick's sporting goods. michael, thank you. >> thank you. time for the latest headlines with frances rivera in new york. >> good morning, frank. good morning. we start with breaking news from tokyo. a plane burst into flames on the runway of the biggest airport. nhk tv, the public broadcasting company, reports it may have hit another aircraft after landing. it is believed 400 people escaped safely. nbc news has not confirmed the

report. local tv shows the japan airlines plane fully engulfed. in a major setback for benjamin netanyahu, the israeli supreme court struck down a pillar of the judicial overall. the ruling is reasonableness clause in the israeli law. there were mass protests in israel for most of last year against netanyahu's plans. and the college football final finale is set. the wolverines overcame mishaps at the rose bowl over alabama. and the sugar bowl where texas fought back on the final drive to fall to the huskies in the red zone. washington will now face-off against michigan which is a week away. frank, back to you. >> that should be a good one.

i'm picking michigan. i didn't go to school there. i used to live to michigan. i love going to the big house. >> my husband is with you. >> frances, happy new year. >> thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the top trending stories and the u.s. slashing the number of evs eligible for the tax credits. stay with us. more coming up. with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.

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it is 5:30 a.m. in the new york city area. there is more ahead on "worldwide exchange." here what's on deck. we break down the biggest moves for 2023 and set you up for success in the year ahead. in japan, a developing story. after a massive earthquake, the region in a standstill. and iran stepping up in the red sea after the u.s. sinks three houthi war ships. we layout what's at stake. it is tuesday, january 2nd, 2024. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. happy new year. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's start your day on the first trading day of 2024. we pick up the half hour check with the u.s. stock futures.

futures with the dow off the highs from earlier today. looking close to flat. looking like it would open four points higher. s&p is flat. nasdaq is opening up on the down side. after wall the sdreettreet d out a record-breaking year for 2023, the s&p's 24% gain and nasdaq with a blowout year and a 43% gain since 2020. helping that surge was big tech led by the magnificent seven with the sector logging its best year since 2009. check of the bond market after the wild three months of 2023. we start with the ten-year yield at 4.94. still lower than before the dovish pause in mid-december by the fed. we are also looking at energy. wti is where we begin. the u.s. benchmark is trading at

$73.20 a barrel. similar for brent crude at $7$7 $78.82 a barrel. we turn to a developing story. 48 people were killed in a series of powerful earthquakes in japan on new year's day. rescue teams are struggling to reach survivors in areas where buildings collapsed and power cut. the 7.6 magnitude quake hit 45 miles from tokyo. the quake triggered tsunami warnings. this morning, after shocks with the upper 5.0 quake south of the epicenter. several flights have been canceled and toshiba said it stopped semi conductor productin to check for damage.

the japan weather agency downgraded the tsunami warnings to an advisory. we will continue to watch this story as it develops. turning attention back to stocks. if the last quarter of 2023 was about going big and going home, here on "worldwide exchange" we have new opportunities to make you money in 2024. let's bring in victoria greene. >> happy new year, frank. >> what is your big idea for 2024? >> it is reits. it is not as sexy as technology and the magnificent seven. if you look at what led after the october lows, it is reits. they out performed with the pause and before the rate cuts. my best of breed is one of the companies i love. they have what they call an

irre irreplaceable portfolio. they are just a fantastic company in a fantastic position beyond rates falling and helping them out. >> that is a company where pretty much everybody is a customer. give us a sense. when it comes to the story of reits, how much is the price action of the reits and the dividends? a lot of the reits pay substantial dividends. >> 100% total return vehicle. they should get a price lift like we saw in december. for me, it is the growth opportunity. this is not a stagnant portfolio. this is a very active company. they are targeting 20 warehouses into data centers. that is 15% to 20% more profitable. they see the growth opportunities and clean energy.

they are one of the leading largest solar producers because they are already working on making the warehouses green and they are helping customers that have to navigate a very complex regulatory environment by looking into clean energy and understanding what their carbon footprint is. that is key in california. they have to be able to really have a handle on the carbon footprint for customers. and then the mobility networks. >> vicki, you are hitting on the other question i'm talking about. a.i. i cover the transport space. the transport ceos believe the a.i. will help hold less inventory and put that inventory in more strategic places. with the reits, is a.i. a tailwind or headwind to reduce inventory? >> i see it as a tailwind for the company because they are data centric. where they hold the key ports and logistics and you cannot replace location, location,

location. we see more online versus brick and mortar. so much is coming from online retailing which is expected to continue to grow. you will have continued warehousing needs and we want just in time inventory, but everybody saw during the pandemic, supplies on hand. i see a.i. as a net beneficial for them beyond the data center opportunity. they use a.i. to make sure they need to develop and how they write the leases and interact with customers. they are an a.i.-driven company. >> your other pick is welltower. another reit, but in the healthcare space. are you bullish on health care? do you see growth and health care as a tailwind? >> i'm bullish on the baby

boomers. we have the baby boomers retiring. 65 plus is one of the fastest growing age populations. i think so many baby boomers went through difficult transitions with their parents and they are proactive. i want to downsize. i don't want the yard maintenance. welltour is continuing to grow. it is a constrained growth rate considering the growth of the population. you have senior building and they run the portfolio well. i think we will continue to see the population grow. it is a little bit of as the aging population grows, w welltower is picking up on the boomer play. >> invest in baby boomers. vi vicki, great to see you. >> happy new year. coming up, bob pisanis gives us a history lesson of the stock market pop for the months ahead.

first, a few of the top trending stories. "wonka" topping the new year's eve box off with $22 million bringing the domestic gross to $140 million. "aquaman" earned $18 million compared to the $200 million budget. new year and new ev rules. the number of electric vehicles eligible for the $7,500 tax credit falling from two dozen to 13. moving to some of the most unlikely places in biggest shat year is maine. north carolina and new hampshire and montana and washington. ck wh re leaf peeping moving.

baitmo "worldwide exchange" after this.

i was on a work trip when the pulmonary embolism happened. but because i have 23andme, i was aware of that gene. that saved my life. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." looking at the big winners and losers. salesforce up 98%. intel and microsoft. on the other side of the coin for the dow, the losers. walgreens boots down 30% on the

year. followed by chevron and johnson & johnson. both down double digits. time for the global briefing. sorry about that. s&p winners. nvidia is the biggest story of 2023. up 240% for the year. followed by meta and royal caribbean as consumer discretionary spending was big. enphase energy down and fmc and dollar general down 45%. time now for the global briefing on the first trading day of the year. iran dispatched a war ship to the red sea to ratchet up tensions in the middle east. the u.s. destroyed three houthi rebel boats over the weekend in response to the ongoing attacks on the ships.

china factory activity falling again. the index has fallen in eight of the last nine months with the increase in september. asml has canceled shipments to china at request of the white house. the company had licenses to ship three top of the line machines to chinese firms until january before u.s. officials intervened. coming up on "worldwide exchange," every word every investor needs to know today. and if you haven't already, follow our podcast on apple or spotify or other podcast as.pp more "wex" coming up after this. old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you

to make them real. i was on a work trip when the pulmonary embolism happened. but because i have 23andme, i was aware of that gene.

that saved my life.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the "wex wrap-up." byd sales were up 62% year over year which puts them on track to surpass tesla for the ebsecond year in a row. and doordash will expand outside of the u.s. the ceo says it will work with more companies like bj wholesale and sephora. and the pga tour and liv golf looking to extend the deadline from the original date of december 31st, 2023. the pga commissioner says the goal is to reach agreement with strategic sports group and public investment fund and dp world tour. and fidelity cuts x valuation after elon musk's purchase of twitter a year ago. fidelity believes x shares are

worth 71% less than the original value. and recalling baby formula due to powder contamination. the batches of powder in infant formula designed for children which are allergic to cow's milk. no illnesses have been reported yet. delta airlines is bringing on half as many pilots this year as it did in 2023. let's get a final check on the market as we kickoff the first trading day of the year. futures with the dow back up close to the highs of the morning. opening 30 points higher. s&p is fractionally higher. nasdaq is in the red right now. bob pisani has more for stocks in 2024. >> what happens after the s&p goes up 20% or more in a year? here is one surprise.

it happens often. since 1928, the s&p up 20% or more 36% of the time. what happens after the 20% gain? the stock market was up 22 of the 34 years following the 20% gain. that is 65% of the time. that is a pretty good average. here is another question. what happens in january after a 20% gain? januarys are less interesting in years following a 20% up year. it is really a coin flip. januarys are up half of the time. here is another question. could the s&p gain 20% again in 2024? how often does the s&p see back-to-back gains of 20%? the answer is pretty rarely. since 1928, the s&p has seen back-to-back gains of 20% just nine times. that's about 10% in the last 95 years. the last time it happened was

1998 and 1999. what would it take to have two back-to-back up 20% years? nicholas at data trek studies the markets and said it would require essentially everything going right. what does that mean? it means the u.s. and global economy can't stumble at all nor can corporate earnings. we expect an 11% gain in earnings next year. interest rates have to continue to decline. artificial intelligence, of course, which is a big player this year, has to prove its worth and drive investor confidence. that's a tall order. people like nicholas know it. he says all of it is possible, but not the base case. back to you, frank. >> joining me now is delano saporo. >> happy new year, frank. >> we have great data from bob. there's a 10% chance of another

20% increase in the markets this year. slim chances there. give us a sense of how you start this year. >> i think looking at the risk factors will follow us into the year from last year. bob was mentioning interest rates. the uncertainty of the fed policy is another thing to look at. inflation is an area where i think from the economic standpoint you want to see the trend continue especially from the consumer standpoint. the global economic slowdown which i think is baked in. we expect to have a slowdown in the middle tor the beginning of the year. those are the factors i looked at here and it begs the question of how companies will do and we will see a positive return on the year. >> that is the full-year outlook. i want to focus on today. give us your "wex" word of the

day. >> today, we trade with the futures looking there at. it is not an exciting day today. i think traders will be on the sideline and have a flat day. for january and the rest of the year, i think we will see some of the magnificent seven that we have seen push the market forward take a bit of a breather and broaden out of the rest of the market pushing us forward. >> what is your wex word of the day? >> the wex word is broadening. i do think we have more companies and industries join the rally. i do think we see a positive return not in the tune of 20% gain from 2023, but we see a positive return in 2024. especially when you look at the lower expectations with the slowdown. companies are able to lower expectations and exceed with the earning in february and march. >> on that theme of broadening

out, i want to talk about something that crossed the wires. barclays downgrading apple. what is your view on the magnificent seven trade? barclays downgrading apple. >> i think the magnificent seven drove the rally in 2023. you see they are trading at fair value. you see some investors take chips off the table. some investors take profits. that's a good time. you saw a little bit of that happening toward the end of 2023. you will see that more in 2024 for the magnificent seven. i do still think they will end positively pushing out the market forward. i think profits can be taken here especially with those magnificent seven since the end of october with the large c comeback rally.

>> i want to get to your pick. you didn't come with a single pick, but a sector. healthcare. one of the laggards last year. we be looked deeper in the sector. half of the stocks were positive and half were negative. what is making you bullish in 2024? >> you have seen everything from the s&p doing well. if you look at healthcare, some names in the sector not trading as well. there is value play for investors. especially if you see economic slowdown in the middle of the year. those are areas where investors can hide out and get some value there. i look at healthcare and small cap as opportunities for investors if they are looking for a trade which has value at this point sdplchlt de epoint. >> d,elano, thank you. great to see you. thank you. one more quick look at futures. taking a look.

we saw the dow regain the highs. it will open up 21points higher. the zappins&p moving higher. the nasdaq solidly in the red due to the downgrade by barclays of apple. that's going to do it for us on "worldwide exchange." we have "squawk box" coming up next. thank you for watching.

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good morning. welcome to a new year of trading. we will recap the big moves of 2023 and bring you ideas for the first quarter. breaking news in japan. a japan airlines plane burned on the runway after it reportedly struck a coast guard plane as it landed. the airline says all crew and passengers were evacuated. and byd turned in a 62% jump in deliveries. it is tuesday, january 2nd,

2024. first trading day of the year and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq stock market in times square. i'm becky quick along with mike santoli and robert frank. happy new year. we made it. on this first trading day, nothing too spectacular to report with the u.s. equities. dow futures are indicated up 4.5. s&p futures down 2. the nasdaq off 45. if you look at the major averages2023, it was a heck of a year. the dow up 2