we'll see how things shake out. treasury board, ten-year is yielding 3.97, two-year is at 4.34. oil prices -- >> up a couple percent. >> up 2.5%. mike, robert, thank you for being here. we'll see you back here tomorrow. make sure you join us then. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." good tuesday morning, everybody. happy new year. welcome to another year of "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with jim cramer. we're live at the new york stock exchange. carl has the morning off. let's look at futures as we get started with trading on the year. about a half hour from now on the new york stock exchange, you can see it right here. we're looking for a down open. let's get to some news out as well. tesla production and deliveries

are out moments ago. we'll dig into those numbers. we also have roadmap for you that's going to start with what appears a bit of a slump as we kick off 2024. investors perhaps taking money off the table. you heard mike santoli reference it after the very strong year of the markets that concluded december 31st. apple shares under pressure. barclays downgrades the stock as what it sees as soft demand for the latest iphone. there are fears of continued disruption in the red sea. we'll get to that as well. let's start with that new year from the markets and another year for us, my dear colleague and old, old friend. >> thank you. >> what are your thoughts? as the year ended, and we've both been away for a bit, buti can still remember. you were getting cautious when it came to the magnificent seven. is that still the case? >> yes. today for the first time after

letting them run for pretty much forever -- across the board trim. i think anybody who doesn't is being a pig. these stocks have had remarkable runs. i think the runs are so extraordinary that it's time to give them a break and have other stocks do well. we're up 11% since we decided or realized that the fed was going to raise. nine straight weeks, nothing we've seen since 2004. david, you've known me for a long time. i'm not a trader, but i recognize that you're not a professional if you just decide to be permeable. i tried to switch, as you said before, went on vacation and got

increasingly, increasing negative over the valuations. there's a lot of stocks that aren't overvalued. i think when you look at the mag seven, it's been an extraordinary run. maybe it's time for them to cool off and buy what you typically buy when the fed -- >> which is? >> industrials. they seem cheap versus what they can do year-over-year. i do think we're in a situation where i can't find a reason to be buy oil. you buy the left-behinds. i look at the stocks we just put up and i say, okay, we'll talk about tesla in a moment. you say don't trade. i'm not trading. at a certain point, do you really let those gains just run? i don't think so. >> you don't? >> no. >> even though they continue to dominate the respective areas.

no lack of competition between certain of those companies, for example, microsoft and alphabet when it comings to ai. there's belief both will benefit, particularly from the enterprise. >> don't you think what you just said is reflected in the stocks? >> yes. >> i happen to think the world of microsoft. we bought a ton of microsoft when it was very low. bought some in the big selloff. then amy hood, the ceo, came out and said we're going to do really well with copilot. i still think ai is very important, david, but i think the fascination with ai could wear thin over the next six months, and you're going to find yourself thinking, all right, maybe at the beginning of the year -- >> these stocks can have another year. maybe at the beginning o of the year, people got too excited about ai. do you think that's possible? >> certainly. there was great enthusiasm in the markets about the prospect of ai, particularly generative

ai that we've talked about now for roughly a year. >> how come these stocks stopped going up in november when the fed decided it was done raising? why did they flat line? wasn't that indicative of the fact that you had to make the switch? nothing is wrong with any of these stocks, nothing. what seems to be wrong is the rest of the market versus these. these provided all the upside. i just don't think you're going to get the big percentage gains from these stocks. i'm not talking about buying small cap to large cap. they're not going to do that. i think there's better opportunities, and i also think i could look back and say, you know what, i made fun of people who stayed bearish throughout the year. i don't want to be made fun of because i stayed bullish. >> i kim imagine a conversation

we'll be having where people will perceive you've already become more positive. >> look, i toldly get that. but there would have to be a decline in the market. i don't think there's anything in the next few days that indicates there's anything wrong. the vast majority of people i spoke with during this last intervening days were saying, okay, look, election year, market goes up, fed stops tightening, market goes up. i come back and say market goes up an average of 15, but we just had 11. it's an incumbent election which is good, but this could be a very strange election with an iowa primary soon. i don't want to foment negativity. >> we had a 23 plus in the s&p. >> i'm not fomenting negativity. i'm more saying discipline. that is something that is in short supply on wall street. you either get bullish or get bearish. you're supposed to stay that way. i just think there's a price -- you can't have these go down and

look at the beginning of the year. yes, today is down. money will come in as mike santoli said. there's no reason to say these stocks are going to continue. these runs have been amazing. it's a lifetime run in one year. >> it's incredible. we talked about it a lot. we also talked about its presence within the market itself, the dynamic of representing 29, 30% of the overall market cap of the s&p 500. so what do the other 493 have to say about it? >> i'm glad you put it like that. we were fortunate to have almost all of the mag 7. we're not making a statement that one is worse than the other. it's just across the board. at this point in the game, and i suppose it's supposed to not be a game. this is the great world of finance. the great world of finance says you don't need to sit here and

own a stock that's up 100% and think it's new. >> we had a nice, very strong move in the russell over the last month, couple months of the year, not the last week or so. i hear you say industrials perhaps should be the beneficiaries for a period like this. what about that broadening? is the russell something as well? >> i think so. >> by the way, the performance overall -- that's three months and that was a lot of the year. >> nobody liked those. all the gains came from just seven stocks. i do find enterprise software companies still sell at 40, 50 times earnings. not sales. this is not 2000. it feels more like a period where you can say, wait a second, it's not 2005 either, but we're paying a lot for earnings that are very minimal for companies that did a pivot.

now, this may be considered to be a boring pedestrian discussion. i am not going to be here to say, and you know what, it's time to press the uber. uber was only up 61%. sound like jokers. up 61%, that's a good year. >> that's a really goodyear. that's a great year. >> i look at some of the companies that you followed last year. you look at an exxon chevron. they traded with the economy and obviously underperformed. halliburton underperformed. i would rather be in some of those -- it was very rather you got a ge, a boeing which we talked about a lot. for the most part it was mag seven and friends. i'm not saying i got tired of making a lot of money. that's ridiculous. that's what this business is

about. i don't want to look back and say, i saw that mag seven, int peaked, you kept going. no. let's find stocks that could have very big gains, not stocks that could have incremental gains. >> all right. let's talk tesla now as well, speaking of the mag seven. tesla deliveries did cross just a few moments ago. for the fourth quarter the company came in at a little more than 484,000 vehicles, ahead of estimates. tesla producing nearly 495,000 vehicles. that was also ahead of some of the analysts. total annual production and deliveries came in above 1.8 million. there was a time when there was a hope i think among some it would come in as high as 2 million for 2023. that said, as you might expect dan ives, for example, the bull on tesla, one of many, say they come out swinging by beating expectations with momentum into

2024. there's a tiny bit of momentum in the stock. >> those are big number. none of the car companies had really good years except for some of these chinese companies. rivian had a nice run. the companies that does the numbers is in the auto business. not bad. >> as we begin this year and we ended last, there's concern about slowing of growth in evs overall. we've been hearing some people are moving to hybrids. there's a lot of concern that the charging network is simply not there, that you've already addressed all the early adopters and so forth, jim. it's unclear where that stands. by the way, these numbers from tesla certainly would say, hey, we're doing fine. we know about gm and ford which

would continue to delay their plans for full introduction and/or full swishover to largely if not solely ev-powered lineup. where are you when we sort of begin this year? >> still -- what will be interesting, david, gm got some credit for scaling back ev -- not really scaling -- for emphasizing -- ford has an amazing ice lineup. my travel trust owns ford. ford stock going down. will people give ice vehicles a multiple knowing they're going to be phased out eventually? >> that's a good question. what's the multiple there? >> watch out. mustang e costs too much. the ford lightning 150 still gets a 7,500.

i remember when jim farley was saying we can't make enough. now they can't make enough with a hybrid which everybody likes. i don't know, david. i think we spent a lot of time -- talking about esg. we should have spend more time talking about whether companies lost their instinct to be able to continue that. i got the sense that there were a lot of companies that panted to carry the favor of esg enthusiasts. the mag seven brought all the buying. >> they did. we may be past that period where everybody was trying to show their esg purity with, by the way, a lot of nonsense. so many of those funds as well, the incentives were all screwy. i think oftentimes my friend jeff uppen is on the board of exxon mobil so nobody wanted to give him money. what are you talking about?

the whole idea is to get on the boards of companies and effectuate change. >> and they did, the largest project in the country. >> you're put on a list, no, we can't give you any money at all because you're a board member of a fossil fuel company. it's ridiculous. we can hope for more perhaps moderation. >> we have to focus on it. coming into last year, you just had a sense that who is spending the most trying to save the pl planet? now we're coming in saying did anyone really do that much? wow, not so great. >> good place to end. we're going to start there which is energy, oil prices are up. we have those continued disruptions occurring in the red sea after those attacks. a number of vessels taking a different route. we'll discuss that. give you another look at futures here. oil is going to be up this morning. we have a lot more "squawk on the street" for you straight

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only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. keeping an eye on the price of oil this morning. it is up. continued disruptions are occurring in the red sea from the attacks from the houthi rebels in yemen. perhaps redirecting shipments

around africa following, of course, another weekend attack on one of their giant vessels. u.s. forces, by the way, repelling that attack and many others. in fact, they destroyed three boats of the iran-backed houthi rebels. meantime, iran has dispatched a warship to the region as well. unfortunately, jim, some things don't take account of the calendar and refresh, sadly. that seems to be the case when it comes to hostility in general we're seeing in that region. >> one of the things that many of the even uber bulls didn't take into account is we're 13.5 million barrels a day here. >> u.s. production. we can go to 14. >> we have another 350,000 we can add pretty easily. >> that's been the key reason why there has not been in -- >> -- >> we were up 900,000 barrels a

day over the course of the year. 23 over 22. >> it's just going to keep growing as better operators come in and get more per well. >> when you say that, do you think about chevron's -- actually it's more the exxon deal. >> i think the exxon deal is brilliant. while pioneer has a brilliant manager, the exxon balance sheet let her rip. i think it's important to point out that exxon has the best carbon capture program in the world with lindy. they're ready to do a lot of bold things. the stock can't get out of its way. we are the swing. there are a lot of people who really would not go there last year, saying it's not possible we can produce more. the only part you can't produce enough of is nat gas because we don't have pipe. we're long everything in this

country. if you want to -- >> meanwhile, we've done very well with the spr with selling high and buying low. >> look, i would love for the oil stocks to make a run here. historically they are what you are supposed to buy when the fed is done tightening. i saw a downgrade of bp. i totally get that. chevonne has the news today. >> non-cash charge related to really the regulations in california. >> yeah. then they did some deals -- >> -- >> obviously bankruptcy issues. it's the group you're supposed to buy. i need something better than that. >> think about something better than that during the break because we have your first "mad dash" of 2024. we have a lot more "squawk on eafoyostig r u raht ahd. ade, unlocking the power of thinkorswim,

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. let's get to it. our first "mad dash" of the year. of course, counting down on opening bell, about seven minutes from now. you want to talk banks. >> once again, i'm trying to figure out where historically money has gone, if the fed is done. one of the areas has been banks. this morning barclays raises it. what you want to do -- well, let's use one very interesting, morgan stanley, here we go, new ceo. i think that's interesting. mike mayo at wells fargo goes fur tler saying city could be

the one you want to own. >> whoa. >> citi. >> he's thinking -- i don't want to say double. >> it has a nice little move. the expectation rates -- >> yeah. so is this the right time? yes, it's the right time. i've seen some positive stuff about huntington bank. i had them on from ohio. i think you can say that goldman sachs has ban big winner. jpmorgan is good. if you're looking for something with low multiples that has been heartbreaking for people, heartbreaking, maybe look at this. >> if you want heartbreak, try to look at a 20 or 25-year citi. >> remember when i did the interview with the prince. he said i will never sell. never, ever, ever.

never. >> okay. gees. >> what do you mean never? he said never. >> there you go. that's what happens if you never sell. >> sometimes you've got to sell. opening bell five minutes away. don't forget you can catch us any time anywhere, listen to and follow my voice on the "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast. to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built-n engine like google, but it's pi and doesn't spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy

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. ahead of the open which is about two minutes from now, take a look at bitcoin, above $45,000. that would be the first time since april of '22. you can see obviously it had a great year last year. >> we got that clearing event of sam bankman-fried. that seemed to make people say we're -- endless e tfrmentsf. it's very rare i've ever seen -- i do think that the people who

are in it for that are going to use that as a chance to sell. this thing, the late charlie monger who was brilliant on so many things was blind to this. >> jamie dimon has not spared any negative words. >> no. look, it's a reality, and it's a technological marvel, and i think people have to start recognizing that it's here to stay. the sec has been against it almost the whole time. it doesn't mean every one of these is here to stay. i do think this is a remarkable comeback that was unexpected except for all the bulls who will turn out to be right. >> gensler does a lot of jawboning. >> when you speak to him, he

would like everybody involved to be like it's a registered security. he failed. [ cheers and applause ] >> here comes the opening bell. [ bell ringing ][ cheers and applause ] >> glp-1s -- >> -- >> an election in two weeks in iowa, straw poll. i think -- what can i say? immigration is going to be a big issue. >> going to be a very key issue in this year which is an election year as we all know. >> i think immigration, we asked the secretary of labor,

immigration is the reason inflation has cooled. i know you want people to have the correct documentation, but you don't have that unemployment -- you don't have the problem -- for jobs that nobody wants or typically nobody wants. >> jim, we started -- >> that's way too hot to even talk about. >> the more we can stay away from it -- i'm very thankful for so many reasonables that i'm -- reasons that i'm a financial journalist where we can talk about things in the business world. it does intersect occasionally with politics. but not right now. right now i want to talk apple, the stock down 2.3%. we didn't really talk about this barclays downgrade. let's give people a quick read on what they're thinking. it's an underweight at barclays. out don't typically see that which is one of the reasons we

mention that. they simply believe that they're picking up weakness on iphone volumes and mix as well as a lack of what they say is a bounceback in max ipads and wearables. biggest takeaway from latest checks is incrementally worse, iphone 15 data points out of china together with developing markets remaining soft. they do go on to have a p multiple of 25. >> it's actually 29. >> no, they're maintaining -- their price target at 25. they have a price target below the current price, 160 is where barclays -- >> the stock was up -- we keep hearing they didn't do that well versus mag seven. i got criticism from one of our club members saying you like apple, it hasn't done anything. 48% is a lot. >> how can anybody complain about a year like that?

yeah, it wasn't one of the best performance of the mag seven, but still one of the best performers period. >> i do know, look, there's no reason to think it's going to be that much different from nike which had slowing. i know one is tech and one is athleisure, so to speak. this is a love stock now. it's got that high multiple like nike. nike didn't deliver the numbers, the stock got hit. i think apple has -- the expectations are high. the notion that service revenue won't do more than 10%, that's going to be challenged because service revenue is going to be very strong. we're all interested to apple having a -- >> you are famous for saying own it, don't trade it. is that another one of these moments even though it's part of the mag seven? >> i'm trimming every mag seven. you could say, wait a second, you say own it, don't sell it. i have to trim everything.

i have to trim everything because at a certain point i cannot be a hog because bulls make money, bears make money and hogs get slaughtered. it's what i've been taught from 1982. it's 41 years saying to myself i don't care how great it is, there's got to be some discipline. people may say, jim, your discipline is full of it, you're a trader. i owned this stock from when my daughter was in elementary school. enough already. make a little trim. count me out. what kind of business are we in that i can sit here -- >> by the way, what is a trim? is it 10%, 20%? >> even smaller. >> even smaller. i get up to, say, 12, 13% cash which i think is okay. i don't think we're done. today is not a significant day. i think there's going to be

other days this week that will be good, and next week. i have these scriptures that say i can't touch any stock. >> on apple -- >> that's a pretty negative -- >> services which we have talked about for years, becomes a larger and larger part of the overall profit and recurring nature of it, higher multiple that apple gets as a result, it's 22% of revenues, 36% of gross profit. again, the question there becomes how much more can it grow? >> things that people don't look at when they talk about apple. they don't talk about brazil. they don't talk about indonesia, the philippines. they talk very little about korea. don't talk much about india which is emerging. they don't talk about what happens is, when you bring a phone back, an 8, it goes to brazil. those people take the service revenue stream, service revenue

is equal to mac, plus wearables, plus watch. it's chronically undervalued. the company doesn't talk specifically that much about it because it's not high tech. you do have the vision pro. i think it's priced expensively. i've seen it. i like it. i wish the stock were 20 times earnings, david. that's the problem. the problem is these stocks have moved so much that their multiples are out of whack. they provided almost all the upside last year. i'm not going to say these are crumby companies. i'm going to say your valuation reflects a lot of the grayness. say you trim. people that don't trim, i'm going to castigate you. i'll tell you why. you obviously do not care about realizing that you do not have a profit until you take it. >> that's good. >> so i stand here saying, listen, i got negative. i was not shy -- this is not like i walked in here and said, hey, i've been really positive

and now i'm not. i've been negative, negative, negative with the as a result that once i'm in the new year, i'm trimming, raising some cash. it's a natural progression. anyone who doesn't do that, they're in a different business from me. they're in a business -- they're like in the cd business. all you hold is a cd. i can't do that. >> i've got something else i want to hit. we talked tesla and briefly hit rivian. i did notice that stock, which tends to be volatile around news, rivian, is down about 8.5%. let me give you the numbers. produced 57,232 vehicles, delivered 50,122. they say they did exceed management's most recent full-year '23 guidance which had been 54,000 vehicles. you would expect perhaps they'll get a positive perception, jim. that is not the case. >> stock had a run from 15 --

>> they did this piece of paper which was initially poorly rec received. the one thing rivian has, it's got buyers. amazon loves it. it has showrooms where it's cool. there's one in williamsburg i'm going to be going to. i just think this is just one where there's a lot of -- >> you do some driving. this is on amazon. you cannot take a drive anywhere on the highway without seeing an amazon truck? >> absolutely. it's amazing. i went to an old stomping ground of mine, quakertown, pa. they were our rival growing up. you pass this giant, giant warehouse. you say, wow, business is back. quaker town hasn't had a new business there -- there it is. it's amazon.

whether it be -- >> i would say amazon trucks now -- and that is from virtually nothing not that many years ago, the logistics network they have created on the ground. it's bigger now than fedex and groups. >> it's amazing. i bought zyrtec today. it says it's going to come today. i ordered it at 3:30. it's going to come today. how do i know that? they've got this incredible method of placing the key warehouses in these different parts of the country, and they know what you want and so they're able to predict that's an item, all through ai, for some reason they know i'm going to do it. for the same reason they know i like jack reacher. they push that to me. >> they got the new season of reacher, they've got it out. >> it's fantastic.

i've read every reacher book. >> beating the hell out of everybody. >> he's a big fella. i look at what amazon does and i say to myself, i just don't want to -- walmart in quakertown, a nice enough walmart. i think walmart is doing incredibly well. i was going to take a picture and send and say, i love your fresh food area. the stock is now up. they're in for the fight of their lives and yet still sells at 24 times earnings. p pill fridge is down. >> perhaps it won't be the same topic as it was in 2023. for the year, at&t and verizon are both up. how about that? pretty impressive, huh? >> they had a comeback last year

where there was concern about their dividend. a lot of that was a series of articles about cable -- a cable issue that would be considered -- >> the lead-wrapped. that went away. >> the dividend was really not -- the dividend had already been cut. dividend not in doubt for verizon. >> my point was they both have performed poorly for a very long period of time. >> as is t-mobile. >> mike seaver. i sat down with mike seaver -- to give a background, you and i, we've been in this for a while. i had to interview mike siebert in seattle. i happen to enjoy his company very much. he was incredibly promotional. david, he keeps hitting the

promotional targets. when i finished the interview, i shake his hand. and then the camera ends. i said, mike, pretty heavy there. he said, we're going to do all that. you know what? i do the interviews with limb. look at his stock! >> i agree with you completely. he's one of the most promotional ceos. even when it's raining, it's sunny somehow, but he does deliver, at least he has. >> i had a revenues nair and i think very eye-opening. >> revolutionary and eye-opening at the same time? >> there was marc benioff, the number one performer in the dow. he had one of these dinners at salesforce. my wife was between mike sievert and matthew mcconaughey. the dinner ends. she goes, oh, my god, the guy -- he's everything you thought,

everything you said he is, he's incr incredible. he keeps delivering on the numbers. i said, are you talking about mike sievert? no, the other guy. matthew mcconaughey is the -- she said no, this guy sievert, let me tell you how he views life. that's it. 400 people in this room, all they want to do is sit next to matthew mcconaughey and all you want to do is talk about mike sievert and the chartreuse outfit he's wearing. >> chartreuse? >> sievert is the man. >> pharma is up, oil stocks are up. >> pharma shouldn't be up. it's an election year. >> -- >> -- >> giving a quick snapshot here on the market -- >> don't forget, jpmorgan health care. >> jpmorgan health care is next week. that gets you to deals. used to be a time we'd see deals

announced going in, right after or even during the most important health care conference of the year. we'll see whether we get them. >> think about bristol-myers on a spree there. >> expectations of deal making, there's optimism that we're going to start to see a significant uptick in activity. it certainly feels that way based on conversations i was having towards the end of last year, the various bankruptcy lawyers. that said, a lot of stuff hasn't made it to the finish line. you negotiate, you work. they finally call it off. oftentimes it's not even regulatory, still the old reasons, social issues. >> but david, when you say that. >> -- >> look, pfizer and moderna were the worst performers in the s&p. these are very good companies, but it doesn't matter. pfizer made a series of acquisitions, people don't think it matters. moderna hasn't been able to

prove it's more than just covid. yet i think he's a genius. i met him when the stock was at 15. i do think, david, the multiples of the drug stocks are pathetic. these company -- how can you not respect what merck has accomplished? merck is a good company. >> merck is a great company, one of the great american companies. >> i like rob davis very much. >> can you really buy pfizer? can you ever? >> can you buy pfizer? is veterinarian, a good guy. >> you're mumbling now. >> the yield is 5.7. >> that's not bad. >> i don't think it's bad. 12 times earnings is not bad. >> that was a horrible year. >> all right. so he had a horrible year. >> that was the worst. look what happened to that stock. >> the first half of the year

they were 10-1 -- sorry. that's the eagles. >> did they throw a drink into the crowd? i don't know. >> bristol-myers selling seven times earnings. holy cow. >> it's harder to own an nfl franchise than run a giant hedge fund apparently. >> i like dave, even though he belittled me when i was at goldman. >> not easy. do you have words of advice for him? he's given you advise through the years. you're always willing to give advice. >> well, my advice to david tepper is to follow how mr. lurie does it, the eagles. let's everybody do what they should. if things are out of whack at the end of the year, he readjusts. i gave him an award at the american migraine foundation. a very polite man.

not someone who is going to create anything bringing attention to himself. >> talking about -- >> jeff lurie. >> not david tepper. >> no. i'll defend david tepper. i like him. i think he's a terrific guy. i think it's obviously frustrated. >> very frustrating. >> it's been a terrible year. >> and the bears get -- >> he shouldn't do what he did. i've been angry at times. >> we've got construction spending now. >> can i just say david tepper is a terrific guy who has a temper. for anyone who has really worked with him on the desk, loved, loved. >> we've got manufacturing pmi out. construction spending is due out at the top of the next hour, 13 minutes from now. let's get over to rick santelli for those numbers. >> the first economic readings of 2024.

these are s&p global manufacturing pmi december final read. mid-month read at 48.2. now gets downgraded to 47. 9 which means we had only two of the 12 months for 2023 in this series that were above 50 in expansion mode. so we continue to see weakness in manufacturing. we have construction spending at the top of the hour. "squawk on the street" will return after a short break.

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oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for you. it's not just possible, it's happening. we haven't talked semiconductor. stop trading. you have a name. >> yeah. i mean the second best performer in the dow was intel up 90% and hats off to pat gelsinger. h he's made some big changes an i think pcs are going to have a big year. done well in enterprising and high performance computing. my hats off to a guy that cleaned things up, critical of him at times, but i had the shift and i really have to say that there are people who wrote off intel and it's difficult to write off a great american company be and he's making a comeback. >> i think it's real because i think the pcs will have a big

year because of ai. i don't want to be part of the ai bandwagon that's just beginning, but i do think when we can speak to our pc and do a large language model it's going to be intel that's involved. anp is the leader. >> you spent time talking chips. micron a name we talked about a lot. >> yeah. >> we had -- >> did a great job, and he correctly said there would be a turn and got a turn. he's not promotional. he's just a very good guy. these guys, what can i tell you, they're terrific at what they do, and they're american manufactures. we put the kibosh on big asml machines that china needs to make sophisticated chips. nvidia sells gaming chips to china but not military chips. we're doing our best to re-establish ourselves as the world leader. >> important story for this year.

what do you got on tonight? >> i'm doing off the charts with larry williams, with his work and larry has done work that is, frankly, negative short for the most over valued part of the market. longer term, fine. again, i am of the same view. i just think that we had this great move by a few stocks, and it's time when the fed is done tightening, for others to join. now does that mean that the metas have to come down and the megas have to come down? kind of. but. >> it's all right. you don't have to be defensive about it. you're allowed. >> talking to everybody about this. >> yeah. >> we'll see how long it lasts. >> i was going back and forth with larry saying, look, i don't even know, how do i sell something i think is the greatest. he said you're kidding me. it's leisure stocks. don't screw it up. >> good first show of the year. >> i have missed you. >> giving us like an 8. >> an 8.

that's not bad. >> not bad. >> pretty good. >> only gets better from here. i don't know how many years we've been doing the show. >> i love working with you. what can i tell you. >> another year ahead. coming up a market breakdown and talk to wharton professor jeremy siegel who says bet on value stocks. that's next hour. all right, tandy, what's it gonna be, the drink made from whatever was laying around, or the one made with your drizzly haul? drizly! stock up today, sip well, tomorrow. drizly.

welcome back to "squawk on the street." rick santelli here live at cme hq with the second bit of breaking news for 2024 on the economy. this is s&p global manufacturing pmi. that was out so to you it's in construction spending for the month of november. expected up 0.6%. disappoints. up 0.4%. in the rearview mirror, saying can't revision from -- a significant revision up 0.6 to 1.2. interest rates are up for the first session and we want to pay particularly close attention to the notion that 10-year note yields closed unchanged on the year, so up 4 basis points, very similar to the first couple trading days of last year on the same path. david, back to you.

>> thank you. good tuesday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with leslie picker live from post nine of the new york stock exchange. we are a half hour or so in trading. lower across the board with the nasdaq in particular taking the brunt of the selloff and of those -- of that composite certainly the so-called mag 7 are showing significant signs of weakness on this first trading day of the year led by the likes of apple down 3% and sort of on from there. treasuries, a quick look as well. of course, it's the end of the year came we watched the 10-year yield sink. >> we are about 30 minutes into the first trading session of 2024. here are three big movers we are watching today. chinese ev maker byd says it sold more than 3 million vehicles in 2023 and more than 526,000 last quarter, up 62%

from a year ago. we'll break down tesla's latest numbers in a moment. apple downgraded by analysts over at barclays to underweight intere from equal weight to 160 per share. the firm citing what they believe to be weaker iphone 15 sales in china with not much optimism expected for the upcoming iphone 16. the crypto craze continues into the new year. bitcoin hitting its highest level in more than 1 1/2 years. we'll have predictions for 2024. some of them are eye popping. later this hour. >> all right. it is the first trading day of the new year. let's bring in mike santoli to look at what matters the most. that's a tough one. what matters the most? 2024? >> it's almost easier to say what maybe doesn't matter as much as people are assuming right now. i do think you have to acknowledge a starting point for this year which is very different from this year, up nine straight weeks, 26% total

return on the s&p 500. the soft landing idea pretty much consensus where a year ago everyone expecting recession. last year it was good enough for the scary stuff not to occur, whether it was a recession, regional bank meltdown that became systemic, oil going back to 150 or frankly the fed having to go to 6% to undercut the economy. none of that happened at various times last year. all seemed plausible. you've got than risk appetites have republican into the end of the year because we've gotten comfortable with the absence of a lot of that bad news. so what doesn't matter, perhaps, as much from here, in my view, is the fed doesn't have to get really aggressive cutting rates six or seven times, whatever the fed funds future market says it is. i don't think a lot of videos out there has that as their bull thank you thesis. the fed will slice 150 points and that's a great thing. the next move is a cut and if

inflation is friendly it's the escape route for everything else. >> at the end of the year a lot of narrative was surrounding the concern that stocks were in over bought territory. in your column you mentioned they did this round trip but we've seen a growth of nominal gdp up 12%, earnings up by about the same amount, so to you does that say that the market is not over bought and has room to run from here? >> in the very short term, it absolutely is statistically a little bit ahead of itself. the nine straight up weeks, the fact that you can just look at ways of measuring how far above the normal trend it is. longer term, not really over bought at all. a two-year round trip basically 0% return over two years is a long reset. the other piece of it is, we've had the broadening move in the markets since the late october low. 200 basis points of out performance by the average stock versus the s&p. everyone wants to see the magnificent seven give way. the magnificent seven, not a

single one has a higher p/e than two years ago. as much as they dominated 2023 performance, the earnings system have come up and they were very expensive two years ago. there's a complicating factor there, which is you don't -- it doesn't have to be an either or market is the way i would think about it. >> right now it is. we have the mag seven down. anything to make of that, other than as you pointed out earlier, is selling now? >> i think that's the very easy handy solution, explanation for what's happening today. that group of people that would have waited to take profits until a new tax year, the downgrade of apple is interesting because apple is one of those stocks that seems to have this huge move to the upside from 170 above 190 on nothing changing fundamentally. it ismuch more about almost like it goes in and out of fashion. and so i think that you're going to have enjoy that. the equal weighted s&p is down a quarter of a percent. it's really much more about a

little bit of that isolated over owned stuff that maybe you're going to lighten up on the first day. >> take a look at the statistically meaningless -- >> you know what i say about it. it's like batting average. everyone knows what the numbers mean, even if it's not the best measure. >> you keep saying that. it's a new year but say the same stuff. >> by the way, ops, i don't -- i can't figure it out. >> exactly. >> all these metrics. >> that's why we stick with this. >> baseball season still a ways away. >> yeah. our next guest says this will be a good year for value stocks. welcome jeremy siegel joins us now. happy new year. good to see you. why value stocks in 2024? >> well, david, i just looked at valuation which i think is, you know, ultimately the most important variable for returns. i was looking at the russell 1,000 which divides into value

and growth. the p/e ratio of the russell 1,000 growth stocks is 31.3. the p/e ratio of the russell 1,000 value stocks is 15.9. that's almost a 2 to 1 ratio. now, that's not the record. the record was in 2000, but we know what happened after 2000, so, you know, you know, things could get wider. ultimately they come more together. they shouldn't be. growth stocks should have a higher multiple, but this is a much bigger gap than normal. now, i don't think that this means any sort of collapse or anything for the growth stocks, and i think the s&p is on track for, perhaps, 8 to 10% and that includes all the stocks, but i think we could have the value sector of the market do 15%. >> wow. i do feel, though, injeremy, as

though we could come into every year, for the past ten, and say it's going to be value stocks are this year and as the year ends, you should own the growth. >> well, 2022 was fantastic for value. and then totally got reversed in 2023, and, you know, everything was zero. we're in that alternating fashion, but i think, you know, the ratios here favor -- i'm not saying that growth is -- it's nothing like 2000. nothing crazy. ratios are not much greater than 20 years ago. look at interest rates are much greater and so that is one thing that might tend to hold them back. interest rates are going to go down short term, but i don't think long term, certainly not to the levels that we had prepandemic that so boosted those stocks during that period. >> yeah. of course a recession as well as

what happens with monetary policy a big indicator here. raymond james writing in a note this morning, the equity market seems as convinced about a soft landing today as it was convinced of a recession in 2022. where are you on that camp? you think that conviction is more accurate this year than perhaps it was a year ago? >> yeah. certainly looking more likely. i give it -- i give a soft landing, you know, probably 2 to 1 probability, but look, if it's not going to be a soft landing, i think it's going to be a very mild recession be, and i think we're going to be coming out of it and i don't think that that should long term or even for 2024 greatly affect the whole year's performance, so even if we have softness that dips into zero gdp growth, second and third quarter, that's the worst scenario and i see a nice growth after that in 2024-2025.

i still think the soft landing is still now the most likely scenario. little dip in gdp growth, not to negative levels, and then acceleration towards the end of the year. >> we're going to have plenty of time to talk to you during the course of this year but starting off with you. professor siegel, thank you. >> thank you very much. turning now to the middle east, iran stepping up its presence in the red sea after the u.s. navy sunk three houthi warships over the weekend. here with the latest is matt bradley live from tel aviv. hi, matt. >> reporter: what we're seeing is an expanding of this war. i was speaking to you i think a couple months ago from lebanon and that really is the crossroads there. that is where we're seeing hezbollah, like hamas, backed by iran. the houthis, which have been seizing ships and attacking commercial vessels in the red sea are a militant rebel group in yemen backed by iran. what we're starting to see is an

expansion of the war to include with the iranians and their supporters call the axis of resistance. the nations and militant groups very opposed, not just to israel, but to the united states, and sunni-backed monarchies in the gulf and we're starting to see them acting in concert. this is becoming so much more threatening. the united states has now been pushed almost to the point of a direct confrontation with iran, and now that iran has deployed what looks like a warship into the red sea, it looks as though there's -- we're closer than ever to a region wide war involving possibly not just israel and militant groups like hamas or hezbollah, but also the united states and iran and that is very, very threatening. now when you go into what's going on in the gaza strip today, we're seeing bombardments by hamas, still, even though they're on the back foot after nearly three months of israeli attacks against them into israel proper. that is going on. we saw and the israelis announced another salvo of

missiles launched on new year's eve, but now the big news out of israel here is that benjamin netanyahu himself has taken a direct hit. this in the form of politics. the decision by the supreme court to block his very controversial judicial reform bill. this would have essentially kneecapped the judiciary and said the judiciary is no longer able to employ a reasonableness clause to shoot down decisions from the cabinet which is run by benjamin netanyahu and populated by the most right wing government this country has ever seen. so this is going to further divide this nation, already very much divided by this same question, ever since the beginning of last year. it's going to divide them further as it faces the worst crisis, security and political, that its ever seen since its founding. guys? >> thank you for that rundown of all of those concerning issues. appreciate it.

matt bradley in tel aviv. let's take a quick break here and give you a road map as well for the hour. tesla is out with its latest delivery numbers. the stock had a very good year in 2023 but the question is what are you going to do for me now? >> he was right about the big rally in tech last year but what now? wedbush's dan ives joins us with his new call. >> bitcoin hitting its highest level in over a year. will the crypto craze continue into the new year? get the point of what we're asking? what crypto insiders and outsiders are predicting. more "squawk on the street" straight ahead.

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welcome back. shares of tesla on the move after fresh delivery numbers there. let's get to phil lebeau with the latest. >> reporter: good morning. when you look at the fourth quarter results for tesla these are better than expected. here's what tesla reported within the last couple hours. production coming in at 495,000 vehicles, essentially, and deliveries, this is the one getting the most attention, 484,507 vehicles. the street was expecting 473,000. that was the latest fact set consensus. most saying as long as they hit 475,000, that's the key number here, because if they hit 475,000, which they did, take a look at this, full-year slifr

deliveries would exceed the company's guidance of 1.8 million vehicles. for the year they come in just a little shy of 1.81 million vehicles. deliveries increasing 30% -- 38% in 2023 compared to 2022. the question now is, at what cost in terms of how much did margins have to suffer as they dealt with pricing issues in china and in the u.s. for the fourth quarter as well as all of 2023? we will get to financial results from tesla after the bell. three weeks from now, january 24th, wednesday the 24th, and that's also when we will hear the company's guidance, we expect, to hear the company's guidance for full-year deliveries in 2024. the estimate among analysts right now, 2.1 million, though if you talk with bulls they will see we think they can get up to 2.2, 2.3 million. we'll hear from elon musk after the bell on the 24th about that.

>> got one of those bulls right here, in fact. talk tech stocks for a second. viewers know just wrapping up what was one of the best years we've seen over the last two decades. our next guest was right about the rally. dan ives, wedbush security analyst. by the end of the year you will be atop the will be of cnbc appearances, although i'm willing to take an over-under on that and i will love every one of them. >> happy new year. great to be here. >> good to see you. >> had a good call on tech overall. you continue to be bullish. let's start with tesla and give me your take on those numbers. phil mentioned 2.3 million. are you going to be towards the high end in terms of what you expect them to deliver this year. >> i think they could be higher. this was a strong result. you look at what's happening in china, there were fears there. it was a source of strength. we think a record quarter in china, so i do think this is an important i think sign that demand actually strengthening for tesla.

it continues to be maybe ev demand soften, but not tesla demand. that's the important thing going into '24. >> where is that line? why is that the case then? in particular, in china, where byd is a strong competitor, are they going to be able to maintain their market share? >> byd has done a phenomenal job. if you look it's tesla and byd, gaining shares from neo and others. in china the view in the last few quarters there were fears this price war was going to continue. it hasn't. see now to phil's point you're seeing price stabilization. that's very important because now, the goldilocks scenario, margins upticking, demand upticking, that's where, in our opinion, you see a trillion dollar market cap for tesla over the next year. despite many of the haters continuing to hate. >> i have goat your take on apple this morning with barclays revealing its downgrade over cooling iphone demand. do you agree with the assessment?

are your channel checking showing the same thing? >> the last 48 hours it hasn't changed from what we've seen over the last month. look, i get some of these calls from evaluation perspective and many have been naysayers over the last year, but if i look at iphone 15, we have not seen number cuts from our checks in asia, and that's important, because i think it shows this upgrade opportunity is manifesting for apple. i actually think the mix is much more pro. specifically pro max in china. what that means is this is going to be an iphone number that comes in above expectations, but the most important thing, and david has talked about it a lot, services. i think this is going to be teenager type of growth, not single digits. if that's true and we believe it is based on our checks, and this is ultimately a stock that can go 30, 40% higher this year. >> potentially a higher multiple, again, as services becomes an even larger part of overall profit. let's talk broader tech here. again, our viewers see you often

and know where you stood towards the end of last year. this is going to be a big ai moment, and it's going to create a bull market overall for how many companies in technology this year, dan? >> again, talking about it here is that our new ai checks, we talk on the program about use cases, use cases are exploding. the average enterprise that we're talking to is seeing 15 to 20, potential use cases within their companies. that's why right now we think it's going to be 8, 10% of budgets. that's the important thing. you look, it's not just the godfather of ai in nvidia and jensen, not just what's happening with redmond. you will see the spread across the board in software and chips and we believe tech stocks will be up 25% this year. we could have ebbs and flows, but it's get out the popcorn moment. the tech bull market has begun. >> it has. and so we shouldn't be scared off by what may be high multiples as a result of enthusiasm around generative ai

and what it will add in terms of enterprise. >> the multiple expansion was 23. '24 is about monetization. we see that in late january from the nadella and microsoft and google. then you look, you got mongo, palantir and others. monetization, when you talk about expensive, i look as we go into '24, 25, this is in my opinion, it's a 1995 moment. it's the biggest tech transformation in 30 years, and this is really just the start of a revolution that's happening in ai and monetization. >> nasdaq 20,000? >> our bull case tech stocks could be up 20, 25% and sitting here as the ball drops on '24 with a 20k nasdaq. we could have selloffs -- >> i mean if, by the way, you're wrong on this, i'm going to hold you accountable because you always come in, and if you're right on this, you're going to cement the reputation for years to come. you can retire, dan.

>> 20k nasdaq. if we sit here this time next year with a 20k nasdaq. >> i will be here. ultimately in my opinion it's really about the monetization that we're seeing here. it went from a narrow perspective to much broader. that's why i think this is really going to start m&a, and you will see software and chips participate. i think a year from now, 20k nasdaq is our bull case and i think it's led by big tech software and chips. >> all right. dan, way to start the year. good job. that's one appearance. i'm going to keep track. i'm going to -- we'll have an over-under, maybe fanduel will want to get in on this. >> betting markets. thank you. check out the biggest gainers on the s&p to start 2024. led by moderna, wynn resorts, bristol-myers, pfizer. we'll be right back.

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from health care, energy and utilities, while leaders from last year like tech and com services are the laggards. many of the top performers in the health care sector powered by a surge in shares of moderna by over 11% after losing 45% of its value last year. this morning analysts at oppenheimer upgraded the biotech company well-known for its covid vaccines to an out perform rating pointing to things around visibility around covid vaccine sales and new products in the pipeline for the next few years. other larger cap big tech names like pfizer, amgen, bristol-myers and gilead sciences are following suit. keep an eye on the out performance in casino stocks within consumer discretionary. wynn resorts and las vegas sands two of the best performers. last week, gaming revenue news out of las vegas. the casino stocks, ones to watch. i'll send things back down to you folks at the new york stock exchange. >> thank you, dominic chu.

bitcoin climbing up 45,000. the first time it's seen that level since april of 2022. it is up more over last year. what is ahead for crypto in the next year next on "squawk on the street." at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real.

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and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm bertha coombs with your cnbc news update. japan's prime minister says rescuers are in a battle against time as they search for survivors from a powerful new year's day earthquake. the death toll is already at 48 for monday's 7.6 magnitude quake, which damaged buildings and roads and prompted tsunami warnings. those warnings were lifted early this morning. also in japan, a fiery plane crash at tokyo's airport. according to japan's transport minister, a commercial plane colliding with a japanese coast

guard aircraft. he also said, though, that all 379 passengers and crew aboard that jet made it off the larger plane safely. five crew members on the coast guard plane were killed. that aircraft was going to fly earthquake relief to the country's west coast. and russia bombarded ukraine's two largest cities today following president vladimir putin's new year's vow to intensify strikes on the country. kyiv's mayor says two civilians were killed from the attacks on the capital city and dozens more were injured. leslie, hard tobelieve it's going into its second year. >> it is hard to believe. thank you. watching shares of apple down more than 3% this hour. barclays downgrading the stock due to iphone demand concerns saying, quote, iphone 15 has been lackluster and we believe iphone 16 should be the same. other hardware categories should remain weak and we don't see services growing more than 10%.

not the most optimistic way to start out for the magnificent seven, but that is certainly affecting apple nonetheless. >> they have a price target of 160. really isn't different from the price target previously, 25 times. well below the current price, although it's getting closer to it. 2023 was a year to remember for the stock market and marked the 22nd best year in history for the s&p 500. it was the fourth best year in history for the nasdaq 100. both indices traded close to their all-time highs. bob pisani has been here for all of those years. >> since 1928. all of those years. thank you for bringing that up. >> we get his perspective. >> up 24% sounds amazing, but it's not that unusual i want to show that to you in a minute, but i want to point out, that this is what a mean reversion trade looks like, exactly what's happening today. we don't have to have an apple downgrade to have this happen. show you the sectors moving

today. what were the biggest sectors that under performed last year in the s&p 500. they were health care, energy, utilities, consumer staples. what was the biggest outperformers included technology. what today is outperforming? health care, energy, utilities, consumer staples, what under performed. this is what mean reversion trades look like. technology is a big outperformer, under performing today. what under performed, big names under performed. dom was talking about health care a minute ago. last year well moderna, pfizer, bristol-myers, johnson & johnson. big under performers. what are the top performers today? moderna, pfizer, bristol-myers, and johnson & johnson. this is what mean reversion looks like. let's go on. what was another big under performer last year? how about energy. exxon, chevron, big under performers. how about conoco and consumer staple names like kroger and altria. the top leaders today, exxon, chevron, conoco, kroger and

altria. mean reversion, the classic way here. what was, finally, on this theme, what was big, big movers? the big winners of last year. what gained the most. advanced micro and nvidia and apple and strange names like sherwin williams and norwegian cruise lines. what were the laggards. you're following along and paying attention, advanced micro. apple, sherwin williams and norwegian are the laggards. the mean reversion trade. for this to keep working things have to go right. we're rotating into small cap and value. for all of this to work today and play around with this stuff, interest rates have to keep coming down and have the sloft landing. we'll see as of today, this is textbook. talk about what happens after 20% of gains in the year. it's not that unusual. the s&p up 20% or more about one third of the time since 1928. that sounds crazy but look at this. 36% of the time it's up 20% or

more. 21% up 10 to 20% and 15%. add these numbers up. the s&p up three out of four years in the last 95 years. that's why indexing works. stay with the market over time, and it tends to go up. declines of 10% or more, look at that. happened 12% of the time. like 2022, we were down 19%. extremely rare moves to the downside here. january is a little bit of a coin toss. it's only up about half of the time after a gain of 20%. don't expect too much on a historical basis from what's going on here. a lot of people ask me, at the end of last week, could we get back-to-back gains, 20% gains. you get greedy here. it doesn't happen often. it happened 65% of the time in -- the s&p 500 has 20% back-to-back gains -- excuse me 65% of the times. it's up in 2024 the following year here. it's down 35% of the time. the dispersion is very large,

though. i wouldn't say -- put too much into the idea that there's a clear pattern here that s&p once up 20% is inevitably up the following year 20% or more. let me go on, people were asking me can you get two back-to-back 20% gains? that is extremely rare. it's only happened nine times since 1928. nine times out of 95. dot math. like 9% of the time here. here's what's interesting. here's the years it's happened where you've had back-to-back gains, two years in a row, up 20% or more. last time was 1998 to 1999 and remember that epic run, we were here, from 1995 to 2000 -- >> 96, 97, 98 -- >> you're not going to see that again. the last time it happened up 20%, 1999. two back-to-back 20% years. for whatever reason, we -- this is now a fairly rare event in market history and nobody really has much memory other than you and me about it happening then.

a lot has to go right. it's the interest rate scenario and looking? >> a seismic change and so much given the advent of the internet, maybe generative ai will be similar to that. dan ives thinks so. >> hats off to dan ives, directionally right. much ridiculed for his bullishness and those outfits he wears. he was right on both counts. he was right on the outfits and directionally. i agree there is an interesting question about whether generative ai is the same paradigm shift as the internet proved to be. that's an interesting question. i think it's out and i think it's worth debating. >> so you're saying there's a chance, in other words? >> oh, yeah. well we will be asking this question to our next guest, because the nasdaq hitting session lows. joining us with his outlook for 2024 is barry bannister, stifel chief equity strategist. your prediction for the s&p is 4650 into mid 2024, that

indicates a 3% decline from today's level. what bob was laying out in terms of the historical chances of, you know, repeating that 20% gain again this year, you actually think it will be declining, at least into mid 2024? >> yeah. we're a using 4650 as fair value in the first half. i don't have the vanity to try to look out to the end of the year. that too far out. we think the first half will feature 4650 s&p. the market is simply expensive versus the financial conditions index and 10-year yield. we don't really see outside of a recession much chance of the 10-year remaining below 4%. >> in terms of that 10-year there's little downside catalyst other than a recession for the 10-year yield to fall further. do you think the equity markets agree with that? there's been so much interplay in terms of where the 10-year yield goes and equity market goes. >> i heard you earlier

reminiscing about back in the '90s, but if you think back to the early '80s, the first half of the '80s, we had come off the '70s inflation, we had in the first five years of the '80s, an above 10% 10-year yield and 5% real yield on the 10. there was muscle memory. there was a collective belief that we were going to go back to inflation, which we were not. it peaked in april of 1980. the same thing is happening now in reverse. too many investors remembering the 2010s, borderline deflationary. a normal environment the 10-year closer to nominal gdp, potentially, and that's 4 and above. >> how important as you look ahead to friday this week with the jobs number, how important is that in just kind of helping everybody level set for how the market is set up? >> if you look at what constitutes the definition of a

recession, it's income, production, employment, fixed investment, and sales. the only thing that was not negative last year was employment. in other words, everything else went negative from the first quarter of '22 to the first quarter of '23. we had a pseudo or de facto recession. the only thing that held on, as i say, is employment because the job market has been strong due to post-covid effects and other things. if employment starts to weaken, that will be the last, that will take down everything. many of the leading indicators of what is normally a late cycle indicator on employment on the things we're watching to know if there is going to be economic trouble in '24 and until employment shows signs of weakening, i just don't see a recession. >> all right. we will certainly be keeping an eye on that and earnings starting shortly thereafter. lots of catalysts to look for. barry, thank you. >> thank you.

bitcoin topping $45,000 a coin since april of 2022 as that rally seems to be continuing in the future. let's get to cate rooney who has more on where this can go from here. kate? >> hey, david, good morning. bitcoin's new bull run is driven by two upcoming events. first a hope for an etf approval and then something called the having, that's coming up in april, up 65% or so in the three months. etf is the big driver of this price action. the sec has a january 10th deadline to approve or reject the arc 21 shares etf, cathie wood's proposal there. reuters reporting that s.e.c. could notify issuers as soon as this week if they've been cleared to launch those etfs. if approved this would be publicly traded fund tracking the price of bitcoin. investors wouldn't need to go to a crypto exchange or hold bitcoin directly themselves. it may lower the barrier to entry here.

because of that some are arguing it's going to bring in a wider range of investors and more institutional interests. something called the bitcoin having, the new issuance gets cut in half, keep a cap on supply there. the code written so there's only ever 21 million coins in circulation. this makes it less profitable to earn new bitcoin and more competitive for what are known as the miners, companies using high powered computers to create new bitcoin. those mining stocks, think of marathon digital, those guys up double digits today or so, micro strategy and coinbase higher this morning. coinbase turning lower down 6% or so. the other driver for bitcoin, same thing driving technology, small cap tech especially, some of the lower interest rates heading into this year potentially and return of risk appetite from retail investors. >> that was going to be my question, how much of this is kind of a risk on sentiment

versus just what we're seeing with overall approval, expectations, and, you know, basically how much is sentiment versus the risk of a potential selling on the news once we ultimately get that news? >> that is a big dynamic here. the idea that this is a buy the rumor, sell the news event. so much of the price action has been priced in at this point and etf, yes, it's an incremental positive but it may not be as big of a deal so it's one of those things in crypto tends to be a frothy fomo driven market so that's one thing, buyer beware at this point. bitcoin in terms of the is owe c sin crattic events, it has traded more on tech fundamentals, seen as this high beta tech play and traded like that. too soon to tell if it's going to break out and trade on its own fundamentals. right now it's really tech, fomo driven rally, and we see that time and time again, although

that's a good thing for bitcoin investors, tech and the nasdaq have had a good year, seems to be continuing so far in 2024. >> definitely trading more like tech than it is currency. kate, thank you. still to come, morgan stanley one of the biggest laggards among the big banks in 2023 and now they've got a new ceo. we'll discuss the road ahead after thbrk. n'gowae eadot ay.

welcome back. turning the calendar on to 2024 means a new leadership change in the c-suite at morgan stanley and taking over as ceo is ted pick. he is taking over from james gorman who had that role for about 14 years. gorman moving up to become executive chairman, at least for about a year or so. take a look at the performance of the big six banks.

you can see morgan stanley the second biggest laggard of the group up 10% of the year. bank of america up about 1.7% in 2023. so pick has his hands full. we spoke with him back in october when his position was announced that he would be filling that role as ceo. i asked him kind of what the change in strategy might be and what he wants to put his stamp on. take a listen. >> the business strategy is sound. there will be no change in strategy. we know where we are after 15 years of transformation under james' extraordinary guidance. we have a strategy where we have a world-class wealth and management business, world-class integrative bank and there's so many opportunities to grow both of them globally, it's a strategy that's in place and we're going to keep with it. >> so change in leadership at the top, but no change in strategy. now that doesn't mean he doesn't have his hands full.

he takes on this role, of course, you've got a slump in deal making, which you follow very closely and they've also had slower inflows into wealth management and part has to do with rates and customers seeking out money market funds, about $6 trillion in those, given the rate environment year. so, overall strategy remains the same, but, you know -- >> not transformation as was the case for the 14 years under gorman where you took what was an investment bank and really made it as much, if not more, an asset management or wealth manager with a series of acquisitions. solomon smith barney, e-trade, on from there, i guess. but events can change. >> events can change. >> your strat gid. >> and some might wonder, is it easier to be almost in a gorman position where you are, as he described it in the interview with you a couple of weeks, you're taking a firm that's on the brink. he said it was basically a near-death experience for morgan stanley coming out of the

crisis. you basically -- i mean, you get to kind of rewrite history. you know, taking care of the baby that is being handed to you and, you know, preserving it, making sure it stays -- >> i think you're right. it's a tougher time, in a way. gorman can say, hey, listen, i came in, we were on the brink, which they were. it was right after the financial crisis. he made his approach clear and he can claim real success. it makes it more difficult. you have to keep it going. >> exactly. but the world changes around you. you've got a.i., regulation, you've got all these different things happening, even in the near term to contend with. it will be interesting to follow his trajectory as ceo. >> we will do that with your help. >> largest firm by market cap. still ahead, a good 2023 for the markets, of course, and the world's top tech billionaires. we're going to break down their numbers. that will be next.

nasdaq, near session lows. it is being dragged down by the mega cap tech names. apple, for example, is down more than 3.5%. and any number of the other names are also down rather significantly. you heard earlier in the

program, jim cramer did say time to trim. as for 2023 it was a different story. proved a great year as well for some of the world's top tech billionaires. we always get out a tiny violin for them when robert frank joins us with those impressive numbers. >> you can call it the great round trip of the rich. the world's 500 richest billionaires after losing $1.4 trillion in 2022. tech billionaires led with the top ten adding half billion to their wealth. elon musk added the most with a gain of $96 billion. he's back on top as the world's richest with $232 billion today. he lost $200 billion in 2022 so $100 billion shy of his peak. mark zuckerberg is next, and microsoft run added $31 billion

to bill gates, $45 billion to steve ballmer. the google guys and larry ellison, all of them gaining over $30 billion. the biggest percentage gainer, no surprise, jensen huang at nvidia. his portion more than tripled to $44 billion. now in the top 30, ranked 28. warren buffett added $13 billion but he could not keep up with all of the tech stocks. he fell from fifth place to tenth place. lvmh stock down 20% from its highs but still up $17 billion for the year. he and buffett are the only two nontech names in the top ten. you can see a future where pretty soon it's all tech in the top ten. >> the wealth is just extraordinary. you obviously cover it very closely and so well for us, the numbers are extraordinary. by the way, on musk, does that include what we estimate his

ownership of spacex is? >> it does include. his gain was like winning a marathon after running 200 miles in the wrong direction. he lost $200 billion. now he's ahead $100 billion. >> has it accounted for the huge loss in overall value of twitter as well sm. >> it's down 71% according to the fidelity markdown. it's like a rounding year. >> he's lost more than we'll ever have. and he's still up there. >> by a multiple of a million. >> every day probably loses more than we'll ever have. >> that's okay. he's not that happy. there's a storm going on. thank you. our live market coverage continues right after this. a force to be reckon with. no, not you saquon. hm? you! your business bank account with quickbooks money, now earns 5% apy. 5% apy? that's new! yup, that's how you business differently.

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( ♪♪ ) with the push of a button, constant contact's ai tools help you know what to say, even when you don't. hi! constant contact. helping the small stand tall. good tuesday morning. welcome to "money movers." today citi's global economist on a slowdown in global growth and why he still sees a u.s. recession. conflict grows in the red sea with the arrival of an iranian warship. we'll look at the impact for the