nfl, 2-14. >> those two college football's -- football games were so good yesterday, no matter who you were rooting for. >> they say that high school is the new college. closing bell starts right now. thank you, i am scott walker, here at the stock exchange, this hour begins with selling, a sign of things to come in this market. we will ask about experts. the scorecard, with 15 minutes to go, nasdaq, the big decline, with tech taking a big tumble. a downgrade for apple sends shares sliding meta, getting back some of those outsize gains. deep, elsewhere, the major

averages are lower. it takes us to the talk of the day. a new trading year gets on the way. is the bull market safe and sound or taking on a different look? let's ask david greenhouse and lauren goodwin, portfolio strategist for new york investments. they are here at post nine. do you think, david, the bull market is intact but you showing it's face a little bit differently? right now, it is a frown. we are giving a little bit back, as we start with the nasdaq. >> i do not know that i would be reading too much into one day. you could talk about the santa claus rally, and january, february, strong months, and the change in the calendar, as a function, they does not

really make a difference. there is little reason for now to be bearish. that is just for the immediate future. i think that shocks -- stocks should keep going higher. >> the nasdaq is down 300. the number just pops out at you. leads to the conversation that has dominated towards the end of the year as we begin now, this new week. this change of the makeup of the market, it is taking shape. >> i hate being on with dan, we intend to agree with so much. >> you are not the only one who hates being on with him. >> my magnificent seven have moved higher over the course of 2023, for reasons that do not have a lot to do with a lot of the narratives, around rates with the fed et cetera. the market is sort of taking stock of what we have seen over the past year and what to expect ahead.

this rally, at least for a few more weeks, i do not see any compelling reasons why we would see a reverse. >> are you more positive overall than you were for a lot of 2023? >> i am constructive on a very tactical basis but the economic view has not changed in the sense that, the reason for the upside in prices over the course of 2023. it was largely liquidity based. those are very difficult to anticipate in advance. i think the fed tightening cycle is still likely going to bite in the next few months. >> but really, how is it just that? we certainly would not be where we are and we would not have the broadening out as we ended 2023, without the idea that the economy is going to remain pretty decent. we may have that soft landing, that talk of recession seems to be in the past for many. >> that is true, but i think that the shift in narrative towards a real consensus around

soft landing has a lot more to do with the terms people are using than the forecast that they are putting out. most analysts and economists expect economic growth to slow. the argument we are having, with its low slowly or quickly, are we above or just around 0%. i do not see that as a strongly compelling reason for the market to remove higher and higher, from here, for much longer. the earnings outlook is still deteriorating, even in a soft- landing circumstance. >> to widen this out, not to put words in lauren's mouth, when you are an economist -- >> i think you have that in your title. >> i do, but i am referring to the royal group of economists. i am not dumping on economists. >> i am in the royal group, by the way. >> as you should be.

right now, as an economist, you are focusing on the long and variable lags. do you think we have moved beyond the worst of monetary policy tightening? or do you think that the long and variable lags will hit, they just have not yet? as lauren said, you need to decide if you are in which side of zero. this is a much larger conversation and we will have now, but i am in the former camp. i think the team at goldman will win this argument. >> then it is not a larger conversation. it either is or isn't. i mean, it either is or it is not. you are either not going to have the economy fall off a cliff, because of those long and variable lags already happened. we already had the rolling recessions across a number of different industries.

now we are coming on the other side of that, when inflation has come down far greater than any other thought, including the fed. the economy has remained much stronger to this point, earnings are going to hold up, rates are going to come down. >> what i was going to get at, the second part, also in my title, if you are a strategist, the question becomes what am i going to do with this? not much. if the economy is going to be on either side of 0%, there is no meaningful effect. >> is there not a different effect on how you express that, like the important part. >> for all of the conversation that we put in to the price target, that is really a sideshow, what really means is the sectoral allegations. do you want to be exposed to technology, because ultimately from the portfolio standpoint, that ultimately drives whether you beat the market.

>> lauren, those are two underweight throughout the majority of the air paid a steep price. the nasdaq is down 300-plus point on the first trading day, whether we will have a rotation away from the winningest trade of 2023 and into these other areas, if you do believe the economy is going to hang in there. the fed will cut because they can, not because they have to. then the story remains intact. what about that make up though? >> i agree with dan, the makeup of your trade from here is very important. in sector allocation, what we are finding over and over again, it is really just profitability that is likely to drive a portfolio, especially when there is so much uncertainty ahead frankly, we are looking at security selection, equity, bonds, for many companies, compensation costs are still higher than revenue growth at this point.

when it comes to bonds, where will you see your default and where will you not? that is going to defined income growth. >> do you think the s&p will have a positive urine 2024? what kind of return do you think is reasonable, what do you think? >> the best chance for a positive year is if we get by a mild recension -- recession. you probably will see some price downside in a recession scenario, in an election year, you will have a swift hit at policy for -- support. and a swift rebound from what is likely -- unlikely, on the year end basis, you will get that growth. >> let's hit some home runs. >> i can make a case, if we are

not going to have this recession, i despise this. let's have some fund -- fun for a moment, if we are on call at 10%, you will be at 240 and change, 10%, 25, 26x, something like that. if we end the year roughly where we are at, 19, 20 times, that is somewhere between 1500 and 5300 at the end of this year. >> does that sound too expensive? >> it is probably going to be a bit too high. i do not think, i cannot prove this on a spreadsheet, but i think the magnificent seven, as you were discussing at halftime, those stocks are probably a little rich. if they come in a couple of multiples, the individual stocks, that will affect the market. >> will it, if the other stocks, like the equally -weighted stocks? like, can't

they get multiple expansion if there is a little bit of a deflating impact on those? >> yes, mathematically, it is going to be difficult. it certainly can be done. you are talking by thousand, 5100 for next year. at the upper end, i am at 50 to 350, for next year. and i do not think that is a particularly, certainly something that may not come to pass. i don't want to say me, but that analysis would be the most bullish on the street. i do have an advantage, i am doing this on january 2nd. they often do it at the end of november. >> lauren, those who did it at the end of november kbak before the end of december and they bumped up some of the targets, because nobody saw the

magnitude that we were going to have from october until the end of the year. >> the fed has done something incredible. an complete about-face. that is why it may have lags. i am really curious what we will see in the minute but powell did something that frankly surprised me. after two years of leaning hawkish, he said the risks to over tightening may be larger than the risks of under tightening. and that is a large shift that has completely changed financial conditions toward the looser. you could have written your outlook on december 12, and december 13th it would not agree. >> we do not want to defeat from the jaws of victory. we actually might win this game. >> let me just color in what lauren said. i have spoken to almost every analyst and almost everybody

was apprised by the degree and the tone at that meeting. lauren is certainly not alone, i am in that camp as well. there was very little to suggest that the shift would come as quickly and vociferously as it did. again, what do we do with that? it gave us permission, we saw that with the seasonality and the underperformance that you discuss on your show. presumably, the rally, into the beginning of this year, and again, i do not a shift in the calendar will do anything to shift that narrative. i do not know why today, tomorrow, or the next day you would want to be exposed. >> i am looking at small-cap, it is at 2000, it was a huge winner toward the end of the year. some strategists say you could get to the percent gain of small-cap, they lag so bad, they are the most primed, mega

-cap will outperform but not nearly as much as it did, does that make sense to you? >> in that environment, you have to have growth. not only holding up, but also re-accelerating. if that is happening, then inflation is not only sticky, but eventually moving in the wrong direction. >> i want to take issue with that. i feel like the fed's chair went there, he was suggesting the reason we have the inflation that we have, is not for the traditional reasons of, you know, over demand. initially, they thought, well, we have to crush demand. slow the economy to further kill inflation. but now, i am not so sure, in the fed chair's mind, to have come to the view that this inflation was caused by a lot of other stuff. the pandemic, supply-chain disruption. sure, we stimulated the economy

too much and probably piled on top of that with the inflation reduction act, et cetera. but maybe the economy can remain strong and inflation is still going to come down. >> it is just so hard to do. i think that the fed, when they started on this rate hiking cycle, i think they wanted to cause recession. i think they thought, and i agreed with them, i think they thought that was the best way to give the economy a medium- term probability of getting through this intact. >> conventional wisdom says it is the only one. it is the model, that is what i mean. the model says, you must crush demand, hit the economy, and then inflation will come down. well, maybe not. maybe not. it was not caused by the traditional stop that causes the economy to become red-hot.

>> if we have the acceleration in growth now, it will not be because of the tons of stimulus or the weird factories or everybody staying at home and buying stuff. it will be because we have been in new -- a renewed cycle. and those are more traditional challenges. >> that is exactly right but i will push back, by saying that we should have seen this coming. on september 20th, when the had a meeting, september 20th. the fed put out additional materials at that time in the meeting. that is when they told you, we do not think that inflation is going to get back to 2% until 2026. we forecast stable growth. no movement in the unemployment rate. that told me, on september 20th, that they fed is not going to do what it has to do

to get inflation back to target, any sooner than three years from now. that, to me, remains an incredible risk. whatever word you had about the fed crushing demand, they put, in print, that they would not do it. >> do not fight the fed. that is why we should be optimistic. more optimistic about this year in stock -- stocks for that very reason. >> like lauren was saying, i don't think they care if inflation is 2.5% or 3.25%, my interpretation is, if it were 2.5% for the next couple of years, so what? especially in an election year, i am not willing to do what is necessary, tightening even more, to get recession. if i am an investor, unfortunately in this conversation, i am. what does that do for me? that is the red flag in front of the bowl, so to speak.

>> my chief concern, when we see a strong fed. -- rally, that is growth that is slowing. and so yes, i completely agree over the last three months of last year, that was your time to get into risk assets, writ large and now what do we do? i think you need a balance portfolio. >> you mean like 63? that old thing that we used to talk about ? >> i mean, sector balance, growth balance, and around the horn balance. when it comes to stop line allocation, we are taking gains in stocks right now. and we are exercising them in areas of fixed income, as a result of this rebound in growth expectations. >> bonds and stocks, are they going to go up together?

>> treasuries and stocks, i think they can. there is no reason why they cannot. >> if this playbook sort of plays out, then why would bonds not go up, treasuries? >> we do a lot of credit, you know i bonds, you know. do i think the equity market is contingent on perpetually-lower interest rates? no. there was no great rush to reduce interest rates, the stocks may not get to 5300, the bullish scenario that i outlined. but they can still do pretty well. the big conversation, it has happened on the show a bunch of times, will people take this view? will earnings be up 12% if the economy is only growing 2%. that will be the debate that fleshes out. earnings can grow much more quickly than the economy does,

although there is a relationship over time. if earnings disappoint, there might be something to do with that. the fed, it might be a misstep somewhere else. >> i will give you the last word. >> i completely agree, will inflation the accelerate if conditions are loose as they are right now? and is the fed really favoring the employment side of the mandate over inflation, which doesn't appear to be the shift they are making. but it is probably the right idea but we will get more clues tomorrow. >> guys, thank you. let's send it over to kate for a look at the bigger movers. >> the cryptocurrency has topped $45,000 its highest level . especially those minors, when they use high-powered computers. micro strategy, another bitcoin

comedy getting a boost. the platform, the trading platform, coin base global, taking a breather, having lost about 9%, it was about 5% earlier. let's talk about vivian, and the ev maker said it delivered close to 14,000 vehicles from october through december, down about 10.2%, but it is in line to meet expectations. >> thank you, kate rooney. we are just getting started. time to trim tech? is the space even due for more of a pullback, more than we are saying that seeing today? we will speak with john williams for his view, st aerjuft the break. live from the new york stock exchange, you are watching closing bell on cnbc.

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give your business a head start in 2024 with this great offer. plus, ask how to get up to $1000 prepaid card with qualifying internet. txdot, leaving the down side. with the sector coming off of its best decade, is it now time for one of the hottest trades to take a breather? venture partners of manhattan, welcome back, great to see you. we are looking at an ugly day, obviously, for mega-cap. but it only adds to the way that this is way -- the way it might be. >> people are using fear to try to convince investors to miss

out on the biggest run in five years. i will say the same thing that i have been saying everything all-time. your portfolio is not diversified with the s&p, with an extra special dose of tech stocks, you know, you are really missing out, all of the revenue growth for the last 10 years, tech stocks. the magnificent seven, tech stocks. when i grew up, it was oil and gas, then it was the banking industry. your portfolio now is all about tech stocks. the downside of daily, weekly, monthly volatility, you can get those returns from your tech profile. >> i don't think people necessarily disc that might disagree, but they may quibble with the multiple that you just said that even though you are willing to pay a premium for it, are you willing to pay that

big of a premium? >> seven years ago, every single person told us that tech valuations were bloated and too inflated, now we have multiples that are valued at more than $1 trillion. to me, it is not about the multiples, per se, it is about how big these companies are and how dominant. multiples alone do not tell the full story. dominance tells the story. amazon, apple, google, meta, they deserve the types of multiples they are getting good in my world, the private world, when you have a company that starts from zero and is $20 million in revenue the first year, then $100 million the year after that, that is going to add a much more significant multiple than a company going from $1 million, $2 million, $3 million in revenue. we are looking for hypergrowth, dominance. even though multiples are high, we need to get out of the

market today, because the multiples still have not even rebounded from where they were, two years ago. most of these companies are not even going public. multiples are here to stay. when multiples expand even further, back to two-year-ago levels, that is when you are able to get those liquidity events that we get in a bull market. >> i want to get with that, but work with me on apple and the valuation. we are talking a lot about it today. it's a rare downgrade, which you hardly ever see. especially when it is an underperforming last year, the multiple on apple, a year ago, it was 20 times. now it is 28 times. >> yes. >> what has apple done to justify 20 times to 28 times, when i could say they just had consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth and the smart

phone market has been weak. out of my justify that one, specifically, when i did not even say the word ai? >> good question. it is something more important then smart phone sales numbers. it is revenue. reoccurring revenue from services, that is the key to the growth of apple for the future. they made a killing off of innovation but a lot of people are realizing that future growth and future margin increases are going to come from the service revenue they are receiving from all of those little monthly you know, 3 to 9, 1099, what you are getting hit from. as apple increases revenue, as they have been, with the same timeline you are describing, to the recurring revenue coming from services, not just from product innovation, you will see the multiples increase. the market values that revenue higher than product sales. >> so, if we talk about, you know, your wheelhouse of venture. obviously, ai dominated the conversation through a lot of

last year, but what else is on your radar? what else do we need to pay attention to? there are stocks in other areas, software, cyber, chips, things like that. but what is on your radar, outside of ai? >> when you think of ai, you think of it as software. what it needs to be computed on, hardware, quantum computing. go one step further, think about quantum computing as a companion to the growth that is happening in ai. and cybersecurity has been at the top of my list for two years, ai, and of course, quantum computing. we have some companies coming down the pipeline. look, i am super fired up, i think there will be game changers, and we have an ipo pipeline that is robust. it is dominated by a lot of ai entrance. and there are epic

games, automatic, and we have a pretty diversified list of portfolio companies coming out, it is not just ai, it was pretty unexciting in the last couple of years. >> you alluded to this, you have given us names. are we looking at a second half of 2024, for the ip window, to truly be pulled open nice and wide, or is it even later than that? >> it is all about ne factor. this is the only thing people need to follow, about when the ipo window will open up. revenue levels. as soon as the levels get back to where they were, when these companies were priced, that is when all of the founders will be able to list these. no one wants to go public at

five times the revenue. everyone is willing to take the medicine if the company trades down, because of lack of performance, but not because of where technical and multiples are critical we get back to the historic multiples on the revenue side, that is where you will see every company queued up, that has the s1 waiting on it, they will price those ip's, and it will be a sweet time. >> when there is robust investor demand, the days of the willingness, to use your model, to pay 100 times sale -- sales, those days are over, no? >> they are over for now because of how much there is in the market, we were teetering on a recession, everything was panicking, the world will end again, inflation, rates all of these things, that uncertainty

makes people a little reluctant. but one thing that is going, for the favor of your argument, as the rates go up and you an get the money market and treasuries for 5%, now people do not have to go into the riskier asset classes in order to get the types of returns they could get when rates were at 1%. i do think that we are at a short window, we have to figure out how to get these multiples back to where they were as the economy is hanging in there as the economy deteriorates, if rates continue to hang in there, all of the assets going into the private areas, will be reallocated. which will then have that negative reaction, which you are describing, with multiple contraction. >> i did not mention more scrutiny over profitability. that, i believe, is here to stay for the foreseeable future. rashaun, i will see you soon. that is rashaun williams joining us on closing bell. up next, one of the biggest bowls will join us, to see the

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the markets are lower to start the year, this, after the s&p closed the year with its best winning streak. a few areas outside the u.s., stocks are bullish. welcome back, happy new year. >> great to see you. >> are you bullish? >> i still remain bullish. at the end of 2022, you had depressed prices across most parts of the equities market, particularly cyclicals. scott, today, investors would be wise to be positioned a little bit differently. i like basically small-caps, mid-caps, we can discuss that today. scott, it does look pretty

different than it did at the beginning of last year. we are overweight on stables, overweight banks, overweight, some utilities. more bond proxy areas, those look at traffic and those have gotten rich from our perspective. >> what kind of year do you think they will have? put that into, you know, real terms about what kind of year you think they are going to have just to provide our viewers, nasdaq is down by a little more than 2%. so, we do have some kind of movement going on, within those areas that you speak of. >> well, just to contextualize, the s&p put up its top five calendar year return over the last quarter century. that is material. the nasdaq 100 of its best year since 1999. when we look at large tech,

posting a year like that is pretty substantial. you have a lot of multiple expansion, scott. the one thing going forward, there was a lot of earnings growth and a lot of recurring revenue. higher multiples and those companies also have very, you know, sheets. the returns are going to do much more youth, scott. i think you get positive returns in the s&p 500. i would be bullish better. i would be much more bullish as i looked down at small caps and value stocks. we are starting down from value, 1000 value, compared to the 1000 growth, 150 basis points. we are seeing a pretty substantial rotation right there. if you look outside of the broad value, regional banks, and an area that you and i have discussed throughout last year, those are beating the s&p 500 by 1700 basis points over six

months. they are not as cheap as they were six months ago, but they are still historically cheap and investors need to be rotating out of the cap growth areas and looking at cyclical value. >> what happens of economy, inflation, and the fed do not go according to plan? everything you have said about what you like and what you do not is based on the idea that it does. >> what gets me so fired up about the bottom-up positioning, scott, utilities have gotten cheap. staples have gotten cheap, you are seeing a lot of areas, historically other than maybe banks, looking at a little bit more reasonable evaluations, because look, investors made a barbell decision, we are going to clip coupons and we will pile up the yard -- large growth to get equity growths,

that is a real opportunity in areas that are deeply discounted, and what gets me excited, scott, if you get some choppy quarters, which i suspect we will. we always do in equities, you will get to play some defense with utility staples, areas like healthcare, those look attractive today. >> what about the banks? up 10%. short income, down. a steepening of the income curve, this is their moment. they waited and the bullish case has always been, well, they are so much cheaper than book value when the stocks did not really do that much. some of them, obviously, have done better than others as of late. but what about now? >> these are all great questions. if you look back at the 2007-08 crisis, banks were very expensive as they build the

data entered the middle of '07. in 2001, 2002, thanks were statistically very cheap, and then they got expensive. today, what we are looking at, multiples that are very discounted relative to the rest of the market. to the rest of the s&p, very cheap. the 2007-08 crisis was an asset- driven prices, this is a liability-driven crisis that began back in march. we have alleviated some of that with what the fed has done, by opening the discount window for banks as well as rates, now. the two-year bond yield finished down on the year, and incredible. >> is the yield curve online? i think that is a very positive moment >> that is a positive benefit, you have that liability equation, it is less under

pressure than it was six to nine months ago. i think the wildcard is, do we get a recession sometime this year? that is plausible, we could get a recession, but i would argue that you are being paid in the discount, you do not want to be missing out on the upside, particularly banks. >> i am assuming you are talking about regional banks. give my viewers a name. >> commerce banks, based in kansas city. they have wealth management tied to it. it has a 2% yield growing dividend. it is pretty impressive, given that we have the invert men. >> thank you for the name. we will leave it there.

and your name is john mowrey. we are tracking the biggest movers. standing by, kate rooney. a new year and a new sector, we will be talking about healthcare. and then gambling stocks. we will tell you who the winners are in that group, coming up after the break.

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away from the closing bell. let's get back to kate rooney. >> the s&p is trading down. many of the top 10 performers are coming from the healthcare sector. moderna, the big winner. oppenheimer upgraded that biotech company. the price began optimistic, based on more visibility around covid-19 vaccine sale. and then, things are looking good for casino stocks. wynn resorts in las vegas are higher. and strong gaining's in december. back over to you, scott. citigroup shares are popping, up nearly 3%. analysts are spending that matt bedding mac big, and we will tell you why after the break.

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the market zone, sponsored by eátrade from morgan stanley. trade with bill market minimums. we are in the closing bell market zone. we will break down the crucial moments of this trading day. steve kovach, diving into that apple downgrade. leslie, getting more bullish. doubt, trying to make a move toward the positive during close, thank you healthcare? >> yes, you have been talking about it all day. it seems a little too pat for that to be defining, but, i guess everyone sort of sees the market is overbought. is that good, showing momentum, and that a soft ending looks plausible? or is it kind of overbought,

meaning that we have had some selling, we are going to have pull back, what will you do with the good back? it does not leave us immune to these little jarring moves. anything that strays from soft landing numbers, whether it is the jobs report or something else, it is probably not going to be overlooked. >> the pullback, mega-cap is where that is going to be most acute. apple, down today almost 4%. i have the downgrade in my hand from barclays. i have another note, talking about sellthrough of iphone in november. >> that is the big one, scott wapner. this is what we have been talking about with apple, this demand environment is uncertain, and the sellthrough, it is also which they are selling, that mix of the regular phones or those mower expensive professional phones?

more people, the data is showing , or going for the lower end phones. we are seeing a return to the double-digit growth that had been an optimistic story for apple. but barclays is saying, to celebrate again, as we get this doj settlement on the antitrust case. that is also settled around limits that google makes to apple and others to be the default search engine. others coming out in europe, the people in europe will have more options for payment and things like that. that all hurts the margin but i will also say, scott, back to the iphone. there was a new report today on 2023 premium phone market. those are the phones that cost $600 or more, apple is in there. they lost a few points to who else? china.

>> citigroup, leslie pick her, we have a side that is getting a lot more love. >> there are some votes of confidence, that is up today. and bank of america, they are touting the overhaul under the ceo james frazier. and the price target has been hiked from $70. and it could surpass $100 in three years. analysts are writing that the valuation discount should narrow when investors have a better idea about the expense trajectory, as well as clarity around capital, the proposed capital rules. j.p. morgan, those shares are currently up more than 1%, reaching their highest lever --

level in two years. we are on record watch, it is poised to notch a record high, 171.99 is the number to watch. let's see if we can do it. >> it looks like we will get there. we have about one minute left. thank you very much, leslie picker . now, big tech, is it going to get a big test? >> not to say that it is going to start tomorrow morning. but there is a lot more air under those stocks. it certainly can come out of it. i don't know if it will be a seesaw market where it is always zero some. but i do think it is interesting, when it comes to something like apple. there is almost nothing smart to say about them, fundamentally. the market cap, in two months, no moving's document moving in

earnings estimates. basically, it is a change in vibes. that is basically what is happening in >> slower fundamental environment. >> it is no surprise. it is more interesting. >> and it looks like the dow is going to finish positive. i will speak to you all tomorrow. well, the dow is barely in the green. lots of red. it is the first scorecard for 2024. welcome to closing bell over time. happy new year. >> happy new year, the dow did close in positive territory. >> we are going to get the investing playbook, from julian emanuel and chris vallone. >>